I was involved in a big redevelopment of a pre existing council estate where the plan was to move everyone out, build everyone who currently lived there a new home, and then create new private stock on the same land for a mixed use estate of about 30% market to 70% social housing. Once development started, that percentage changed closer to 50/50, and lots of people who were moved out and promised a new home were permanently displaced from that estate. Because the developer said they needed more market homes to make up the new projected loss. This was around 2016?
That sounds like a mess and not the kind of situation I was thinking of in my original reply to you. Perhaps the council should have made it 100% social housing instead of trying to subsidise it by acting like property developers.
There are centrally set limits on what local authorities are allowed to borrow to finance housing development - essentially they are allowed to borrow from existing rental income, I think. Hence such schemes.
Technically the Tories could win most seats, albeit not a majority even if they lose most voters under 50 as the median voter is now aged 50
TBH most people (myself included) don't have much of a clue about how planning and building actually works, and if the question ' are you for or against building on green belt?' is put to you, it doesn't surprise me to hear that a majority oppose it. If you're uninformed it just kind of sounds bad (but as we know there is green belt and there is green belt).
There are two moving targets: SNP losses and Lib Dem gains. Both are now the central case.
The question is how many seats change hands in each category.
If the SNP lose net 15 seats, they are down to 30. If the Lib Dems gain 16, they are up to 30.
Even leaving aside the "Blue Wall" in the Home Counties, there are quite a few ex Lib Dem seats in Devon and Somerset, plus places like Cheltenham, that look nailed on for the Lib Dems next time. Equally, there are at least 15 seats that look like Labour gains from the SNP, especially in the the greater Glasgow area, and I see no SNP surge against the Tories in the North East and the Borders, so no likely SNP gains.
If counties like Surrey also swing Lib Dem, then Ed Davey will outdo Paddy Ashdown for gains.
I think the odds favour the Lib Dems over the SNP at this point.
In a change from 1997, it looks likely the LDs will win more MPs in Surrey, Oxfordshire and Hertfordshire than Cornwall, Devon and Somerset. The Brexit effect
Which seats do you think are likely to fall to the Lib Dems in each group, young HY?
Guildford, Esher and Walton, Surrey SW, Woking and Mole Valley in Surrey. Wantage and Henley in Oxfordshire and in Hertfordshire the LDs could gain Hitchen and Harpenden to add to their gain of St Albans in 2019
Thanks for the reply, young HY. But that answers only half of my question...
How about Devon, Cornwall, Somerset? Only Devon had local elections this year, but the Lib Dems did very well there. Presumably they are also working hard in Cornwall and Somerset.
So as yet, I do not see why you think the Surry-Oxford area would be more fruitful territory for them.
I only see St Ives in Cornwall and Wells in Somerset (plus Taunton Deane if they have a very good night) as possible LD gains there. I don't think the LDs will gain any seats in Devon, it wasn't that great for them in the locals there, the Tories gained Torbay council for instance. Yet in 1997 Torbay went LD
I think you are being a bit pessimistic there, young HY. The Lib Dems have taken control of four of the district councils in Devon. The other rural councils are a bit complicated by the presence of Independents. But in these four councils, the Lib Dem - Conservative balance is
North Devon 22 - 7 Mid Devon 33 - 5 Teignbridge 26 - 9 South Hams 19 - 7
I can see no reason, when Tiverton & Honiton is split, the Lib Dems should not pick up five of the Devon Parliamentary contituencies.
Also the Tories (understandable) have spun the Torbay gain very well, but it was at the expense if indies. The LDs actually made very good gains as well. You would think by the Tory spin that they had gained seats off of the LDs
In fact the LDs made net gains from the Conservatives
I'm surprised no-one has mentioned this today. Sunak has a potential path, albeit it's a very narrow one.
He has rather good favourability ratings with 25-40 year olds, particularly those in their 30s, who favour their taxes being lowered over redistribution. If he can solidify the 50-64 year old group and win a chunk of the older Millennials (big ask) then there's possibly a game still on:
The answer for Mr Sunak is obvious, and Labour are making the running on it this morning.
Build. More. Houses.
Not really.
The main swing to Labour since 2019 is from 40-65 year olds who own their own home with a mortgage after the cost of living rise and Truss and Kwarteng budget disaster. Most under 40 renters voted Labour in 2019 even when the Tories won a landslide nationally.
Yes it might be nice to get more 30 to 40 year olds on the housing ladder and win a few more Tory voters from younger age groups at general elections but as 2019 proved the Tories can win without them. Building more homes in the greenbelt also sees more over 50s vote LD or Independent locally, as the local elections this month proved when the Tories lost control of most of their southern and home counties councils in a NIMBY revolt over Tory councils local plans to allow more homes to be built on green fields near them
I think the worm has turned on this issue. Thatcher's iconic RTB policy had its merits but because of the failure to reinvest in council housing it also seeded the dysfunctional divisive system we have today whereby homes are seen as investments, the main route to wealth accumulation, but at the same time are in short supply and prohibitively expensive, therefore unattainable for very many people.
We need to start going the other way. Houses viewed primarily as places to live, more of them built, and a rebalancing towards the social sector; long term, secure, modestly priced rentals for people who can't afford to buy or don't wish to. I think this is where Labour are heading and as well as being the right thing to do it has a chance of being popular (an unusual combination).
I agree with all of that except the rebalancing towards the social sector.
We should still aspire to have almost everyone having their own home, so keep RTB, but having a social sector as a safety net is not a bad thing.
It seems to me the logical solution is to keep RTB but to mandate that Councils reinvest the proceeds of RTB back into new houses on a 1:1 basis.
If a social tenant wants to own their home they should be able to do so. And the Council ensures a new home is built with the proceeds so the supply doesn't change and the aggregate supply of houses increases.
If you want to extend home ownership really deep into society you need to provide a route for poor people to buy. Eg a state mortgage provider.
Bank accounts: I have to change my main current account. Thought I'd pick your brains.
I'm considering Starling vs First Direct. Any comments or other suggestions?
I've had no complaints with Monzo, though I have only ever heard extremely positive things about First Direct.
I swore off HSBC after they were vile to me years ago, so FD has never been option for me - but I believe they routinely top satisfaction charts and whatnot.
I understand Starling are quite good on the small business front but can't speak with any authority on that.
“Susie Green, the former chief executive of Mermaids, who stood down “unexpectedly” last year, has been hiding in plain sight for so long that I sincerely hope we can see her clearly now. How this woman was ever allowed to have so much influence over vulnerable children, never mind medical professionals, is frankly disturbing. She is a former IT consultant with no medical training – unless you count the fact that she won 2016’s Sparkle Diversity Champion of the Year as a specialised qualification. I certainly don’t. The story of how much power she came to have remains shocking.
“The organisation she ran was once not controversial; it was a support group for children and parents of kids with gender issues until she got her hands on it. It became an activist and lobby group receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds in lottery funding and grants and was hired by the Department for Education to provide training on “gender identity” in schools. As with Stonewall, it had huge reach into key institutions and the usual gormless celebrity support.
“We now find that Green herself had direct influence on policy at the gender identity development service (GIDS) at the Tavistock. After being told that the Tavistock did not have any records of meeting with Green, when threatened by court action, miraculously it found 300 pages of them.
“They reveal that Green spoke directly to the director Dr Polly Carmichael, had advisory roles on two studies and – most scandalous of all – could refer children for treatment at the clinic even when their own GPs had repeatedly advised against it. The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose. ”
The 'advisory roles on two studies' bit needs some context.
I'm aware of a study in this area and ethical approval was dependent on involvement of a mix of the trans charities, including Mermaids (and also some of the less affirmative charities) in an advisory role. Caused a headache when they were under investigation - University policy mandated no formal contact; ethical approval for the study - which was given before the Mermaids difficulties - required their involvement.
Also important to note that an 'advisory role' is just that. You're obliged to listen, but you are also obliged to do the research in what you think is the best way possible, taking into account but not necessarily following that advice (same with e.g. patient involvement; important but the patients don't decide how you do the study).
I'm going to repeat my prescription for planning reform (from the point of view of someone who has actually sat on a planning committee and for whom the planning legislation is a constant pain), but this time with explanations:
- Infrastructure must (just) precede housing. [This reduces NIMBYism to a staggering degree. The true NIMBYs use the (real) issue of infrastructure to support their stance and it makes anyone with any reluctance very susceptible]
- Considerably greater enforcement powers should be given to Local Authorities when developers fail to provide promised infrastructure or damage a site in any way. [This further removes a perennial complaint and reduces NIMBYism. You do have to bring people with you, and these two measures do that]
- Local Authorities should present housing plans and the areas nominated be given central funding to carry out “pre-approval” to the level of an LDO (or better): Countryside Officer, Archeaological Search, Drainage (and need for balancing ponds or not), SuDS and any sewerage upgrades, transport implications (and any upgrades needed), Environmental Protection issues, contaminated land searches, air quality surveys etc are carried out at this time and remain valid. Many of the main issues would then be then pre-resolved… and small developers can find it MUCH easier. [The key issues with "zoning" are that a whole bunch of the above aren't actually resolved. And most of them are real issues. Get them out of the way, and new sites are far easier to bring on, and small developers and self-builders find it MUCH more easy. You also get diversity of provision in existing sites]
- Supported self-build made available on these sites. [We are way behind other countries on self-build. This removes 95% of the obstacles]
- Developments to occur in the places laid out by the Local Plans and not speculative developments outside of them. [The last issue to reduce NIMBYism down to its irreducible core, which is far smaller. I was sceptical that many of these were just "excuses," but in my patch and around, I've found very little resistance to proposals that comply with the NDP, are enforced, and with infrastructure available]
- Funding for LAs to build social housing. [They're all too broke to fund it themselves. Housing Benefit gets poured into private rental accommodation and pushes up the price. It bypasses the rational economic motive of drip-feeding development to keep the price up]
- When planning applications are approved, a monthly Land Value Tax to be levied until the housing is built. [Make land-banking cost. LVT is the only known tax with a negative tax wedge (ie it drives more growth than it costs)]
An excellent set of ideas. Mix and match with Labour's removal of speculative land value gains*, and it would transform the housing market.
*That might also provide financial headroom for LAs to prudently borrow against housing developments.
Technically the Tories could win most seats, albeit not a majority even if they lose most voters under 50 as the median voter is now aged 50
TBH most people (myself included) don't have much of a clue about how planning and building actually works, and if the question ' are you for or against building on green belt?' is put to you, it doesn't surprise me to hear that a majority oppose it. If you're uninformed it just kind of sounds bad (but as we know there is green belt and there is green belt).
Some rather elegant polling recently on the issue:
Describe what the green belt is without naming it, and you get 29% saying planning permission should never be given there.
Ask the same question adding the term Green Belt, and that goes up to 46% (though even then you have 43% saying that planning permission should be given at least some of the time).
I'm surprised no-one has mentioned this today. Sunak has a potential path, albeit it's a very narrow one.
He has rather good favourability ratings with 25-40 year olds, particularly those in their 30s, who favour their taxes being lowered over redistribution. If he can solidify the 50-64 year old group and win a chunk of the older Millennials (big ask) then there's possibly a game still on:
If Sunak wants to win a chunk of Millennials then siding with retirees and NIMBYs every time doesn't seem to be a good way to go about it.
Sunak is running a hardcore core vote strategy. He's not aiming for the middle. Its a losing strategy and it deserves to lose unless he changes course.
The problem with Casino's theory is that only one constituency votes for Sunak, the rest of us have to vote for the more tarnished Conservative brand, and even if you do vote Conservative, there is no guarantee that they will keep Sunak as PM. The right-wing nutters have ambitions...
Another problem with suitably named “Casino Theory” is Sunak’s ratings are Not good at all. Just look at the previous thread header. Behind Starmer on favourability ratings, quite a big gap now on best PM that’s supposed to have inbuilt incumbency bonus. Behind too on best to manage the economy. When a choice is made between the two for Downing Street, what does the theory really think the choice will be, unless these measurements improve in Sunak’s favour?
Another problem with suitably named “Casino Theory” is Sunak’s ratings are on the way down. He has to stand by Braverman now, she has become unsackable. Imagine Suella laying into all sorts of government policy from outside cabinet. A week is a long time in politics, who knows what else Braverman etc who he appointed and stands by, have in their closets.
Indeed what’s in the what’s app messages, for it sure ain’t Boris that Sunak is protecting by not sharing them.
From this point on Sunak’s ratings can only deteriorate. We’ve long passed peak Sunak.
Does no 10 even care how this looks re refusing to hand over everything the Covid Inquiry wants .
#Cover-up !
If the damage caused by revealing it would be more than the damage caused by withholding it...
On the other hand the cumulative damage of withholding it and then being forced to reveal it is greater still.
On the other other hand, if the former is an atom bomb and the latter a hand grenade, you might be inclined to hold out hope for the withholding solution.
Oh, another thing that needs fixing: the rule of "making a meaningful start."
As it stands, you get planning permission issued and it will expire in 12 months/24 months/whatever unless you get building.
Sounds great.
Except all you have to do is either dig a small trench or knock down a building on the site and you have "made a meaningful start." That locks in planning permission for what appears to be forever.
Many developers will scratch a trench and then stop and landbank it or tout it around for years.
“Susie Green, the former chief executive of Mermaids, who stood down “unexpectedly” last year, has been hiding in plain sight for so long that I sincerely hope we can see her clearly now. How this woman was ever allowed to have so much influence over vulnerable children, never mind medical professionals, is frankly disturbing. She is a former IT consultant with no medical training – unless you count the fact that she won 2016’s Sparkle Diversity Champion of the Year as a specialised qualification. I certainly don’t. The story of how much power she came to have remains shocking.
“The organisation she ran was once not controversial; it was a support group for children and parents of kids with gender issues until she got her hands on it. It became an activist and lobby group receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds in lottery funding and grants and was hired by the Department for Education to provide training on “gender identity” in schools. As with Stonewall, it had huge reach into key institutions and the usual gormless celebrity support.
“We now find that Green herself had direct influence on policy at the gender identity development service (GIDS) at the Tavistock. After being told that the Tavistock did not have any records of meeting with Green, when threatened by court action, miraculously it found 300 pages of them.
“They reveal that Green spoke directly to the director Dr Polly Carmichael, had advisory roles on two studies and – most scandalous of all – could refer children for treatment at the clinic even when their own GPs had repeatedly advised against it. The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose. ”
Given it's her big defining issue you'd expect her to speak well on it. And she does. Writes well too. Her fanbase is distinctly dodgy though. I sometimes wander BTL on unHerd and believe me a more reactionary homophobic racist bunch of charmers you couldn't wish to meet. They use some fancy words and construct long complicated sentences which place them in approximately the right order but boy what a fruity, up themselves crowd. And they love Kathleen Stock. They lap up her output on just about anything. I think this causes her to say things she doesn't really believe, playing to the gallery. Either that or this notion she's actually a lefty and a feminist is utter nonsense.
I think it's an example of something I said a while back- to get big changes to happen, you can either excite the public by emphasising the bigness, or soothe them by making them sound boring and technical.
This sounds dull, but is probably dead important. After all, the money that goes to owners of arbitrarily rationed developable land is one of the big reasons we can't afford nice things.
It sounds like a very large transfer of power to councils - which is (depending on the details) probably a very good thing.
And possibly makes them more significant players in the housing market than they have been since Thatcher.
Definitely not boring.
All building is good at this point, but how many people aspire to be allocated a council house?
Would this change allow Councils to purchase land cheaply and then sell off the houses under a right to buy? Could be a powerful money spinner for the Council.
I'm quite pleased by this policy announcement.
All serious policies have winners and losers, of course, and governing is just about balancing them appropriately. But non-homeowners have been getting the shitty end of the stick pretty much ever since I can remember.
My view is that we need more housing of all tenures. If all this does is build big council estates, it's still a positive. But (with apologies for rehashing a hobbyhorse of mine) what I'd really like to see if the public sector as private developer - or, rather, as developer of mixed neighbourhoods. One problem with the current model of delivery is that all building impacts the existing population: visual impact, environmental impact, severance, increased traffic, and so on - but developers - quite reasonably - have an interest only in what they sell to their customers; they need planning permission, but that is pretty binary. If councils were able to develop themselves, they could not only provide the housing stock (of all tenures) that they require but also improve the lot of the existing population. And also, as noted above, recycle revenues back into the public purse.
As with any potentially good policy, there are risks and there are downsides: the risk is that the public sector hasn't got the best of records for developing lovely neighbourhoods. But I think we have moved on sufficiently since the 60s that that risk can at least be managed. And the downside is that less profit will go to landowners. I'm trying to think of a way of phrasing this which doesn't sound like 'hooray, the baddies lose out' because that is not what I mean; it's genuinely to be regretted, because profit provides incentive to do things, and also because landowners [sorry - f key has packed in] oten aren't top-hatted baddies but are broadly owned companies in which many pension unds have shares. It's just that in my view loss o proit to devlopers is to be regretted less than a serious shortage o housing.
It's not clear from the reports I've seen, but the council estate redevelopments around here are mixed for sale/for rent/social rent. And in theory, new private developments are meant to have a social housing element to them. Council house monoculture was definitely a mistake made in the 1950s/60s, and Right to Buy did a good thing in mixing things up a bit.
The recent developments that have worked- Poundbury and the like- have had a single mind controlling the masterplan, the mix of what gets built where and growing the community facilities as you go along. They've also not had to worry too much about the price of the land. It would be good to extend that model beyond benevolent aristrocracy.
And the landowners? I'm sure they will still make a tidy sum from converting undeveloped land into developed. Without these changes in the rules, they might not be allowed to build anything. It's just the profits will be less huge but more certain.
More Poundburys is probably the answer.
But one Poundbury is only 2,000 houses, so we need at least 300 new Poundburys every year.
Looking into Poundbury (which I'd only vaguely been aware of prior) is interesting, and I've had a good chuckle reading about how much a good chunk of the architectural profession hated it, while it's been enthusiastically embraced by the people who actually live there.
Is there a profession more out of touch with its end-users, I wonder? Or more egomaniacal?
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Prof Stock's invitation should stand.
He added: "Agree or disagree with her, Professor Stock is an important figure in this argument. Students should be allowed to hear and debate her views.
Why is Rishi Sunak getting involved in the business of a university?
Does no 10 even care how this looks re refusing to hand over everything the Covid Inquiry wants .
#Cover-up !
I don't know if this really matters. People are embarrassed that they barricaded themselves in their houses for months because Johnson and Hancock told them to. They want to forget the Panny Demz and move on.
Bank accounts: I have to change my main current account. Thought I'd pick your brains.
I'm considering Starling vs First Direct. Any comments or other suggestions?
I've had a current account with Halifax for over 30 years. The interest rate is laughable but in terms of a competent service I've never had a single problem.
The shipment of 993 Clubsport parts I sleuthed in Germany arrived yesterday. It was mostly dutiable and worth a lot of money. Zero customs inspection and duty/import tax levied: £0.00
I think it's an example of something I said a while back- to get big changes to happen, you can either excite the public by emphasising the bigness, or soothe them by making them sound boring and technical.
This sounds dull, but is probably dead important. After all, the money that goes to owners of arbitrarily rationed developable land is one of the big reasons we can't afford nice things.
It sounds like a very large transfer of power to councils - which is (depending on the details) probably a very good thing.
And possibly makes them more significant players in the housing market than they have been since Thatcher.
Definitely not boring.
All building is good at this point, but how many people aspire to be allocated a council house?
Would this change allow Councils to purchase land cheaply and then sell off the houses under a right to buy? Could be a powerful money spinner for the Council.
I'm quite pleased by this policy announcement.
All serious policies have winners and losers, of course, and governing is just about balancing them appropriately. But non-homeowners have been getting the shitty end of the stick pretty much ever since I can remember.
My view is that we need more housing of all tenures. If all this does is build big council estates, it's still a positive. But (with apologies for rehashing a hobbyhorse of mine) what I'd really like to see if the public sector as private developer - or, rather, as developer of mixed neighbourhoods. One problem with the current model of delivery is that all building impacts the existing population: visual impact, environmental impact, severance, increased traffic, and so on - but developers - quite reasonably - have an interest only in what they sell to their customers; they need planning permission, but that is pretty binary. If councils were able to develop themselves, they could not only provide the housing stock (of all tenures) that they require but also improve the lot of the existing population. And also, as noted above, recycle revenues back into the public purse.
As with any potentially good policy, there are risks and there are downsides: the risk is that the public sector hasn't got the best of records for developing lovely neighbourhoods. But I think we have moved on sufficiently since the 60s that that risk can at least be managed. And the downside is that less profit will go to landowners. I'm trying to think of a way of phrasing this which doesn't sound like 'hooray, the baddies lose out' because that is not what I mean; it's genuinely to be regretted, because profit provides incentive to do things, and also because landowners [sorry - f key has packed in] oten aren't top-hatted baddies but are broadly owned companies in which many pension unds have shares. It's just that in my view loss o proit to devlopers is to be regretted less than a serious shortage o housing.
It's not clear from the reports I've seen, but the council estate redevelopments around here are mixed for sale/for rent/social rent. And in theory, new private developments are meant to have a social housing element to them. Council house monoculture was definitely a mistake made in the 1950s/60s, and Right to Buy did a good thing in mixing things up a bit.
The recent developments that have worked- Poundbury and the like- have had a single mind controlling the masterplan, the mix of what gets built where and growing the community facilities as you go along. They've also not had to worry too much about the price of the land. It would be good to extend that model beyond benevolent aristrocracy.
And the landowners? I'm sure they will still make a tidy sum from converting undeveloped land into developed. Without these changes in the rules, they might not be allowed to build anything. It's just the profits will be less huge but more certain.
More Poundburys is probably the answer.
But one Poundbury is only 2,000 houses, so we need at least 300 new Poundburys every year.
Looking into Poundbury (which I'd only vaguely been aware of prior) is interesting, and I've had a good chuckle reading about how much a good chunk of the architectural profession hated it, while it's been enthusiastically embraced by the people who actually live there.
Is there a profession more out of touch with its end-users, I wonder? Or more egomaniacal?
Does no 10 even care how this looks re refusing to hand over everything the Covid Inquiry wants .
#Cover-up !
I don't know if this really matters. People are embarrassed that they barricaded themselves in their houses for months because Johnson and Hancock told them to. They want to forget the Panny Demz and move on.
Bad memories linger. And folk who have them scratch their scars and post on websites.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Prof Stock's invitation should stand.
He added: "Agree or disagree with her, Professor Stock is an important figure in this argument. Students should be allowed to hear and debate her views.
Why is Rishi Sunak getting involved in the business of a university?
Two reasons. Firstly, I imagine, because he was asked the question. Secondly, because free speech and freedom of expression is important, and as PM, I'd like him to have a view about it. What's wrong with that?
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Prof Stock's invitation should stand.
He added: "Agree or disagree with her, Professor Stock is an important figure in this argument. Students should be allowed to hear and debate her views.
Why is Rishi Sunak getting involved in the business of a university?
Two reasons. Firstly, I imagine, because he was asked the question. Secondly, because free speech and freedom of expression is important, and as PM, I'd like him to have a view about it. What's wrong with that?
Damnatio memoriae doesn’t work so well if people keep raising the subject.
“Susie Green, the former chief executive of Mermaids, who stood down “unexpectedly” last year, has been hiding in plain sight for so long that I sincerely hope we can see her clearly now. How this woman was ever allowed to have so much influence over vulnerable children, never mind medical professionals, is frankly disturbing. She is a former IT consultant with no medical training – unless you count the fact that she won 2016’s Sparkle Diversity Champion of the Year as a specialised qualification. I certainly don’t. The story of how much power she came to have remains shocking.
“The organisation she ran was once not controversial; it was a support group for children and parents of kids with gender issues until she got her hands on it. It became an activist and lobby group receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds in lottery funding and grants and was hired by the Department for Education to provide training on “gender identity” in schools. As with Stonewall, it had huge reach into key institutions and the usual gormless celebrity support.
“We now find that Green herself had direct influence on policy at the gender identity development service (GIDS) at the Tavistock. After being told that the Tavistock did not have any records of meeting with Green, when threatened by court action, miraculously it found 300 pages of them.
“They reveal that Green spoke directly to the director Dr Polly Carmichael, had advisory roles on two studies and – most scandalous of all – could refer children for treatment at the clinic even when their own GPs had repeatedly advised against it. The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose. ”
The 'advisory roles on two studies' bit needs some context.
I'm aware of a study in this area and ethical approval was dependent on involvement of a mix of the trans charities, including Mermaids (and also some of the less affirmative charities) in an advisory role. Caused a headache when they were under investigation - University policy mandated no formal contact; ethical approval for the study - which was given before the Mermaids difficulties - required their involvement.
Also important to note that an 'advisory role' is just that. You're obliged to listen, but you are also obliged to do the research in what you think is the best way possible, taking into account but not necessarily following that advice (same with e.g. patient involvement; important but the patients don't decide how you do the study).
Yes, an awful lot of Telegraph spin going on here.
The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose & recommended it be replaced by a network of regional treatment centres.
Not quite the “crumbling of gender ideology” the Telegraph seems to think perhaps? But that seems fairly typical for the GC crowd: Every court case or report is breathlessly reframed as some great victory in their moral crusade & the Cass Review is no exception to this rule.
The Tavistock was a badly run shitshow by almost every account: Five year waiting lists! It’s no great surprise that their patient handling was poor: Total reform was clearly necessary.
It is not impossible but I am not confident the SNP will fold as much as predicted
In other news Moscow comes under drone attack
It’s quite right Moscow is under attack, Russia is at war with another country whose capital is hit by drones every day.
At least the Russians have admittedly today their attacks on Ukraine are terrorism, and should be seen and tried as such, if they call their war attacks on Moscow terrorism.
I think it's an example of something I said a while back- to get big changes to happen, you can either excite the public by emphasising the bigness, or soothe them by making them sound boring and technical.
This sounds dull, but is probably dead important. After all, the money that goes to owners of arbitrarily rationed developable land is one of the big reasons we can't afford nice things.
It sounds like a very large transfer of power to councils - which is (depending on the details) probably a very good thing.
And possibly makes them more significant players in the housing market than they have been since Thatcher.
Definitely not boring.
All building is good at this point, but how many people aspire to be allocated a council house?
The nearly 100,000 households in temporary accommodation would probably like one. Especially the 10,000 families in B&B-style accommodation.
Is the lack of railway coverage on 4G/5G the biggest disgrace since 2010?
No - I'd argue there are far worse things. Too many people relying on foodbanks as their jobs don't pay enough. Not enough money into healthcare and no realistic ability to reform the system to a continental mix of public/private. Too little support for people who are too ill or disabled to work, including those affected by long covid. Too much time spent on a divisive referendum, that just refuses to die, even though the thing it was about has actually been completed. Too much reliance on overseas energy production, not enough on building green. sustainable and reliable 24/7 home capacity.
But hey, if you are pissed off that you can't download stuff fast enough on the train I guess you might think that lack of 4G/5G is the biggest disgrace since 2010.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Prof Stock's invitation should stand.
He added: "Agree or disagree with her, Professor Stock is an important figure in this argument. Students should be allowed to hear and debate her views.
Why is Rishi Sunak getting involved in the business of a university?
It's the business of the Oxford Union rather than the university. Sunak may be a member of the Union, but even if he isn't, I think it's fair enough to give an opinion.
It seems insane that the LA is on the hook for border related costs. Surely this stuff should be funded centrally?
Edit: I see the government paid some & the council owns the port, so they were on the hook for implementing the necessary facilities & borrowed the rest, hence the debt.
The shipment of 993 Clubsport parts I sleuthed in Germany arrived yesterday. It was mostly dutiable and worth a lot of money. Zero customs inspection and duty/import tax levied: £0.00
Well done tories, you complete fucking clowns.
Except that has always been the way. Customs inspections have always been on a fraction of the parcels/shipments coming into the country. It has never been practical to do it any other way given the amount of material being sent through the post.
If you do end up paying duty on something sent to you it has always been a matter of bad luck rather than the rule
Is the lack of railway coverage on 4G/5G the biggest disgrace since 2010?
No - I'd argue there are far worse things. Too many people relying on foodbanks as their jobs don't pay enough. Not enough money into healthcare and no realistic ability to reform the system to a continental mix of public/private. Too little support for people who are too ill or disabled to work, including those affected by long covid. Too much time spent on a divisive referendum, that just refuses to die, even though the thing it was about has actually been completed. Too much reliance on overseas energy production, not enough on building green. sustainable and reliable 24/7 home capacity.
But hey, if you are pissed off that you can't download stuff fast enough on the train I guess you might think that lack of 4G/5G is the biggest disgrace since 2010.
It's an example of an inability for Government to do infrastructure properly, it is symbolic of a wider problem.
There should be no coverage gaps on the railway in 2023. Simple as that.
It is not impossible but I am not confident the SNP will fold as much as predicted
In other news Moscow comes under drone attack
It’s quite right Moscow is under attack, Russia is at war with another country whose capital is hit by drones every day.
At least the Russians have admittedly today their attacks on Ukraine are terrorism, and should be seen and tried as such, if they call their war attacks on Moscow terrorism.
Sky are suggesting it could be Russia itself and need to prove it is not them
Is the lack of railway coverage on 4G/5G the biggest disgrace since 2010?
No - I'd argue there are far worse things. Too many people relying on foodbanks as their jobs don't pay enough. Not enough money into healthcare and no realistic ability to reform the system to a continental mix of public/private. Too little support for people who are too ill or disabled to work, including those affected by long covid. Too much time spent on a divisive referendum, that just refuses to die, even though the thing it was about has actually been completed. Too much reliance on overseas energy production, not enough on building green. sustainable and reliable 24/7 home capacity.
But hey, if you are pissed off that you can't download stuff fast enough on the train I guess you might think that lack of 4G/5G is the biggest disgrace since 2010.
It's an example of an inability for Government to do infrastructure properly, it is symbolic of a wider problem.
There should be no coverage gaps on the railway in 2023. Simple as that.
So is it the biggest disgrace as you asked? No. I think this is why I find your posts so annoying - you post something, someone replies, but you don't actually debate.
“Susie Green, the former chief executive of Mermaids, who stood down “unexpectedly” last year, has been hiding in plain sight for so long that I sincerely hope we can see her clearly now. How this woman was ever allowed to have so much influence over vulnerable children, never mind medical professionals, is frankly disturbing. She is a former IT consultant with no medical training – unless you count the fact that she won 2016’s Sparkle Diversity Champion of the Year as a specialised qualification. I certainly don’t. The story of how much power she came to have remains shocking.
“The organisation she ran was once not controversial; it was a support group for children and parents of kids with gender issues until she got her hands on it. It became an activist and lobby group receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds in lottery funding and grants and was hired by the Department for Education to provide training on “gender identity” in schools. As with Stonewall, it had huge reach into key institutions and the usual gormless celebrity support.
“We now find that Green herself had direct influence on policy at the gender identity development service (GIDS) at the Tavistock. After being told that the Tavistock did not have any records of meeting with Green, when threatened by court action, miraculously it found 300 pages of them.
“They reveal that Green spoke directly to the director Dr Polly Carmichael, had advisory roles on two studies and – most scandalous of all – could refer children for treatment at the clinic even when their own GPs had repeatedly advised against it. The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose. ”
The 'advisory roles on two studies' bit needs some context.
I'm aware of a study in this area and ethical approval was dependent on involvement of a mix of the trans charities, including Mermaids (and also some of the less affirmative charities) in an advisory role. Caused a headache when they were under investigation - University policy mandated no formal contact; ethical approval for the study - which was given before the Mermaids difficulties - required their involvement.
Also important to note that an 'advisory role' is just that. You're obliged to listen, but you are also obliged to do the research in what you think is the best way possible, taking into account but not necessarily following that advice (same with e.g. patient involvement; important but the patients don't decide how you do the study).
Yes, an awful lot of Telegraph spin going on here.
The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose & recommended it be replaced by a network of regional treatment centres.
Not quite the “crumbling of gender ideology” the Telegraph seems to think perhaps? But that seems fairly typical for the GC crowd: Every court case or report is breathlessly reframed as some great victory in their moral crusade & the Cass Review is no exception to this rule.
The Tavistock was a badly run shitshow by almost every account: Five year waiting lists! It’s no great surprise that their patient handling was poor: Total reform was clearly necessary.
Why has the Telegraph gone completely fruity loop on this? It used to be readable newspaper. Telegraph for Dad and Mail for mum used to be the family newspapers when I was growing up. But rather than giving space to other news stories, page after page is spinning a trans story. They even squeezed two headlines about it into the front page of todays paper. I don’t mind them having trans story from time to time, nor their own slant. But with other news to bring, other subjects to explain, they need to balance the news worthiness better.
The Telegraph is no longer functioning like a daily newspaper, just some sort of echo chamber for dwindling readership or plaything for editorial team who should use social media for that sort of playing instead, not a national institution. I think this is very sad. ☹️
The shipment of 993 Clubsport parts I sleuthed in Germany arrived yesterday. It was mostly dutiable and worth a lot of money. Zero customs inspection and duty/import tax levied: £0.00
Well done tories, you complete fucking clowns.
Except that has always been the way. Customs inspections have always been on a fraction of the parcels/shipments coming into the country. It has never been practical to do it any other way given the amount of material being sent through the post.
If you do end up paying duty on something sent to you it has always been a matter of bad luck rather than the rule
It must be origin related. I imported a load of shit for my Firebird project from the US and I paid through the nose for import duty on every last bolt. I wouldn't have minded swerving the duty on that SP383/T56 combo...
Is the lack of railway coverage on 4G/5G the biggest disgrace since 2010?
No - I'd argue there are far worse things. Too many people relying on foodbanks as their jobs don't pay enough. Not enough money into healthcare and no realistic ability to reform the system to a continental mix of public/private. Too little support for people who are too ill or disabled to work, including those affected by long covid. Too much time spent on a divisive referendum, that just refuses to die, even though the thing it was about has actually been completed. Too much reliance on overseas energy production, not enough on building green. sustainable and reliable 24/7 home capacity.
But hey, if you are pissed off that you can't download stuff fast enough on the train I guess you might think that lack of 4G/5G is the biggest disgrace since 2010.
It's an example of an inability for Government to do infrastructure properly, it is symbolic of a wider problem.
There should be no coverage gaps on the railway in 2023. Simple as that.
So is it the biggest disgrace as you asked? No. I think this is why I find your posts so annoying - you post something, someone replies, but you don't actually debate.
I think again I need to refer you to my previous post, my post wasn't entirely serious, clearly the lack of railway coverage is not the biggest disgrace since 2010. I am not going to sit here and explain every joke I make to you.
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
It is not impossible but I am not confident the SNP will fold as much as predicted
In other news Moscow comes under drone attack
It’s quite right Moscow is under attack, Russia is at war with another country whose capital is hit by drones every day.
At least the Russians have admittedly today their attacks on Ukraine are terrorism, and should be seen and tried as such, if they call their war attacks on Moscow terrorism.
Ukrainian drone attacks have focused on Russian federal buildings. Russian attacks on Ukraine have targeted residential buildings. There is only one terrorist state here.
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
Is the lack of railway coverage on 4G/5G the biggest disgrace since 2010?
No - I'd argue there are far worse things. Too many people relying on foodbanks as their jobs don't pay enough. Not enough money into healthcare and no realistic ability to reform the system to a continental mix of public/private. Too little support for people who are too ill or disabled to work, including those affected by long covid. Too much time spent on a divisive referendum, that just refuses to die, even though the thing it was about has actually been completed. Too much reliance on overseas energy production, not enough on building green. sustainable and reliable 24/7 home capacity.
But hey, if you are pissed off that you can't download stuff fast enough on the train I guess you might think that lack of 4G/5G is the biggest disgrace since 2010.
It's an example of an inability for Government to do infrastructure properly, it is symbolic of a wider problem.
There should be no coverage gaps on the railway in 2023. Simple as that.
So is it the biggest disgrace as you asked? No. I think this is why I find your posts so annoying - you post something, someone replies, but you don't actually debate.
I think again I need to refer you to my previous post, my post wasn't entirely serious, clearly the lack of railway coverage is not the biggest disgrace since 2010. I am not going to sit here and explain every joke I make to you.
I am not on your humour wavelength, for which I can only apologise. In my defence, you do post a lot about 4G/5G and coverage - I'm not sure the clues were there that it was a joke!
“Susie Green, the former chief executive of Mermaids, who stood down “unexpectedly” last year, has been hiding in plain sight for so long that I sincerely hope we can see her clearly now. How this woman was ever allowed to have so much influence over vulnerable children, never mind medical professionals, is frankly disturbing. She is a former IT consultant with no medical training – unless you count the fact that she won 2016’s Sparkle Diversity Champion of the Year as a specialised qualification. I certainly don’t. The story of how much power she came to have remains shocking.
“The organisation she ran was once not controversial; it was a support group for children and parents of kids with gender issues until she got her hands on it. It became an activist and lobby group receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds in lottery funding and grants and was hired by the Department for Education to provide training on “gender identity” in schools. As with Stonewall, it had huge reach into key institutions and the usual gormless celebrity support.
“We now find that Green herself had direct influence on policy at the gender identity development service (GIDS) at the Tavistock. After being told that the Tavistock did not have any records of meeting with Green, when threatened by court action, miraculously it found 300 pages of them.
“They reveal that Green spoke directly to the director Dr Polly Carmichael, had advisory roles on two studies and – most scandalous of all – could refer children for treatment at the clinic even when their own GPs had repeatedly advised against it. The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose. ”
The 'advisory roles on two studies' bit needs some context.
I'm aware of a study in this area and ethical approval was dependent on involvement of a mix of the trans charities, including Mermaids (and also some of the less affirmative charities) in an advisory role. Caused a headache when they were under investigation - University policy mandated no formal contact; ethical approval for the study - which was given before the Mermaids difficulties - required their involvement.
Also important to note that an 'advisory role' is just that. You're obliged to listen, but you are also obliged to do the research in what you think is the best way possible, taking into account but not necessarily following that advice (same with e.g. patient involvement; important but the patients don't decide how you do the study).
Yes, an awful lot of Telegraph spin going on here.
The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose & recommended it be replaced by a network of regional treatment centres.
Not quite the “crumbling of gender ideology” the Telegraph seems to think perhaps? But that seems fairly typical for the GC crowd: Every court case or report is breathlessly reframed as some great victory in their moral crusade & the Cass Review is no exception to this rule.
The Tavistock was a badly run shitshow by almost every account: Five year waiting lists! It’s no great surprise that their patient handling was poor: Total reform was clearly necessary.
Why has the Telegraph gone completely fruity loop on this? It used to be readable newspaper. Telegraph for Dad and Mail for mum used to be the family newspapers when I was growing up. But rather than giving space to other news stories, page after page is spinning a trans story. They even squeezed two headlines about it into the front page of todays paper. I don’t mind them having trans story from time to time, nor their own slant. But with other news to bring, other subjects to explain, they need to balance the news worthiness better.
The Telegraph is no longer functioning like a daily newspaper, just some sort of echo chamber for dwindling readership or plaything for editorial team who should use social media for that sort of playing instead, not a national institution. I think this is very sad. ☹️
I suspect it’s something to do with the position the Conservative party finds itself electorally: having thoroughly compromised their ability to campaign on the values they usually rely one, the only tool they have left in the box is stirring up a culture war that might convince voters that their “way of life” is under threat from deviants & outsiders & that only the Conservatives have their back.
It doesn’t really matter which group of people you choose to identify as moral deviants in this game, so long as they can be convincingly framed as such by a drumbeat of continuous press coverage. This time around it’s trans people.
(There’s also some bleed over from the US, where anti-trans campaigning has been enthusiastically taken up by the anti-abortion groups like the Heritage Foundation.)
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
1393 Albanians in prison according to article. UK prison pop approx 80k.
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
It does seem an incredible number. That is deffo the quote, I just cut and pasted. Let me go back and check
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
Not advice but it is somewhere I've always wanted to visit, and have looked into many times. So much around the Tian Shan looks spectacular (Issy-Kul etc.) and there are indeed sights to be seen in Bukhara and Samarkand.
In happier times, the way to get there would be to dog-leg off the Trans-Siberian. Beijing to Astana would be interesting though.
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
Is the lack of railway coverage on 4G/5G the biggest disgrace since 2010?
No, but it is a pain in the arse (and when 3G goes it'll render passengers on the WCML incommunicado).
It's actually something that is going to be "fixed" over the next few years.
Basically Network Rail will need an upgrade from GSM-R based signaling to FRMCS (5G for railways), and they hope to get that with a deal to put commerical masts alongside the railway to deliver 4G/5G to passengers, and also give access to their fibre optic network, or at least the trenches. That should make a huge difference to mobile coverage of the railways, as currently a passenger's phone will frequently be trying to connect to masts far from the railyway line itself.
The YouTube algorithm has spat out its occasional unusual pick. It does this sometimes, with a thing surfacing from years ago for no known reason. Today it's a 14-yr old video from Tom Scott, back in the student days when he had a ponytail. Here is his vid from 2009 on how to remove your fingerprints
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
Looks like a classic case where a bit of common sense about numbers would have helped. Not unlike Labour's recent claims that no-one has been at work at all for years...
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
1393 Albanians in prison according to article. UK prison pop approx 80k.
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
Been to Tashkent and Bishkek. Both post-Soviet corrupt, crime-ridden shitholes. Not really the Disneyland-For-Old-Men SE Asia experience you normally crave.
Urumqi, Herat or Isfahan would be the truly interesting Central Asia choices.
Bank accounts: I have to change my main current account. Thought I'd pick your brains.
I'm considering Starling vs First Direct. Any comments or other suggestions?
FD has a very long track record of excellent phone and internet service. Would strongly recommend.
I've been very pleased with First Direct.
Me too, since the late '90s. Every so often I've opened a current account with another provider and they've never been as good for what I want to do, and subsequently closed it again. If Barclays were the only retail bank available I would keep all my money in a safe and do cash only.
Can't comment on Starling though, which is what you need to know about more I guess.
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
Yes, the full quote is here, you are right they should have worded it more carefully:
"Albanians are the largest nationality in prisons accounting for 1,393 foreign national offenders, as of March 31, compared to 830 Poles, 823 Romanians, 391 Jamaicans and 380 Lithuanians.
That means Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population."
So they must mean "16 percent of all foreign prisoners in the UK?"
Sloppy writing
The total prison population in the UK is 87,000 so if there are 1,393 Albos in HMPs then that's roughly about 2% of the total, which means they are still wildly over-represented given that they are 0.05 of the population in total
An Albanian is 40 times more likely to be in jail than the average Brit. Astounding, really
The YouTube algorithm has spat out its occasional unusual pick. It does this sometimes, with a thing surfacing from years ago for no known reason. Today it's a 14-yr old video from Tom Scott, back in the student days when he had a ponytail. Here is his vid from 2009 on how to remove your fingerprints
“Susie Green, the former chief executive of Mermaids, who stood down “unexpectedly” last year, has been hiding in plain sight for so long that I sincerely hope we can see her clearly now. How this woman was ever allowed to have so much influence over vulnerable children, never mind medical professionals, is frankly disturbing. She is a former IT consultant with no medical training – unless you count the fact that she won 2016’s Sparkle Diversity Champion of the Year as a specialised qualification. I certainly don’t. The story of how much power she came to have remains shocking.
“The organisation she ran was once not controversial; it was a support group for children and parents of kids with gender issues until she got her hands on it. It became an activist and lobby group receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds in lottery funding and grants and was hired by the Department for Education to provide training on “gender identity” in schools. As with Stonewall, it had huge reach into key institutions and the usual gormless celebrity support.
“We now find that Green herself had direct influence on policy at the gender identity development service (GIDS) at the Tavistock. After being told that the Tavistock did not have any records of meeting with Green, when threatened by court action, miraculously it found 300 pages of them.
“They reveal that Green spoke directly to the director Dr Polly Carmichael, had advisory roles on two studies and – most scandalous of all – could refer children for treatment at the clinic even when their own GPs had repeatedly advised against it. The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose. ”
The 'advisory roles on two studies' bit needs some context.
I'm aware of a study in this area and ethical approval was dependent on involvement of a mix of the trans charities, including Mermaids (and also some of the less affirmative charities) in an advisory role. Caused a headache when they were under investigation - University policy mandated no formal contact; ethical approval for the study - which was given before the Mermaids difficulties - required their involvement.
Also important to note that an 'advisory role' is just that. You're obliged to listen, but you are also obliged to do the research in what you think is the best way possible, taking into account but not necessarily following that advice (same with e.g. patient involvement; important but the patients don't decide how you do the study).
Yes, an awful lot of Telegraph spin going on here.
The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose & recommended it be replaced by a network of regional treatment centres.
Not quite the “crumbling of gender ideology” the Telegraph seems to think perhaps? But that seems fairly typical for the GC crowd: Every court case or report is breathlessly reframed as some great victory in their moral crusade & the Cass Review is no exception to this rule.
The Tavistock was a badly run shitshow by almost every account: Five year waiting lists! It’s no great surprise that their patient handling was poor: Total reform was clearly necessary.
Why has the Telegraph gone completely fruity loop on this? It used to be readable newspaper. Telegraph for Dad and Mail for mum used to be the family newspapers when I was growing up. But rather than giving space to other news stories, page after page is spinning a trans story. They even squeezed two headlines about it into the front page of todays paper. I don’t mind them having trans story from time to time, nor their own slant. But with other news to bring, other subjects to explain, they need to balance the news worthiness better.
The Telegraph is no longer functioning like a daily newspaper, just some sort of echo chamber for dwindling readership or plaything for editorial team who should use social media for that sort of playing instead, not a national institution. I think this is very sad. ☹️
I suspect it’s something to do with the position the Conservative party finds itself electorally: having thoroughly compromised their ability to campaign on the values they usually rely one, the only tool they have left in the box is stirring up a culture war that might convince voters that their “way of life” is under threat from deviants & outsiders & that only the Conservatives have their back.
It doesn’t really matter which group of people you choose to identify as moral deviants in this game, so long as they can be convincingly framed as such by a drumbeat of continuous press coverage. This time around it’s trans people.
(There’s also some bleed over from the US, where anti-trans campaigning has been enthusiastically taken up by the anti-abortion groups like the Heritage Foundation.)
No actually, though I agree with your post this is bigger than that and serious, and I have thought deeply about it. I wish I had the money to buy the Telegraph and save it from these clowns, restore it back to the great paper it was in my childhood.
I will put Peter Oborne in charge and run it for me. A Conservative newspaper needs a boss who understands the difference between populism and conservatism so can maintain it as a conservative newspaper. Also Oborne will ensure it stands apart from every political party, not become a plaything of any political party, that will restore the newspapers journalistic integrity. It will also need journalistic integrity from the newspapers and owners commercial interests.
As a nod to right wing populist claptrap, I think I would hire Leon to give a weekly column with a roaming brief for leftfield gonzo journalism, rather like rolling stone hired Hunter S Thompson.
All that would help set the world back to rights, because the Daily Telegraph no longer being a proper newspaper is very sad. ☹️
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
1393 Albanians in prison according to article. UK prison pop approx 80k.
1393 is 16% of 8,700-ish, Did they literally drop a zero by accident?
[EDIT: somebody else has already made the same point]
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
Yes, the full quote is here, you are right they should have worded it more carefully:
"Albanians are the largest nationality in prisons accounting for 1,393 foreign national offenders, as of March 31, compared to 830 Poles, 823 Romanians, 391 Jamaicans and 380 Lithuanians.
That means Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population."
So they must mean "16 percent of all foreign prisoners in the UK?"
Sloppy writing
The total prison population in the UK is 87,000 so if there are 1,393 Albos in HMPs then that's roughly about 2% of the total, which means they are still wildly over-represented given that they are 0.05 of the population in total
An Albanian is 40 times more likely to be in jail than the average Brit. Astounding, really
Only if you trust the UK population numbers, which you don't. If there are loads more Albanians here than declare on the census, then you need to drop your 40x accordingly.
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
Been to Tashkent and Bishkek. Both post-Soviet corrupt, crime-ridden shitholes. Not really the Disneyland-For-Old-Men SE Asia experience you normally crave.
Urumqi, Herat or Isfahan would be the truly interesting Central Asia choices.
You're teetotal. Iran is dry. I am, shall we say, less tolerant of sobriety than you, and I've already had a Captagon habit so that doesn't entice me
Good to see HYUFD linking the IPSOS figures this morning comparing 1997 with 2019.
This gives some absolute figures to go with the relative swing figures that headlined a couple of weeks ago.
2024 will be interesting, as it will be on a lower overall swing and I expect some differentials to, slightly, wind out.
Swings between 1997-2019 (+ means in favour of Conservative, i.e. with the run of play):
Overall swing: +12.5
Male swing: +14.5 Female swing: +10.5
Women have gone from 1% to the right of males in 1997 to 3% left of males in 2019. I expect this trend to accelerate a little, as incoming 18-24s are more split by gender.
18-24s were an 8% swing to the left of 65s in 1997 and are 45% swing to the left now. I expect such gaps to narrow a little in 2024.
By class: AB: +4.0 C1: +8.0 C2: +20.5 DE: +22.0
DEs were 24% swing to the left of ABs in 1997 and are 6% swing to the left now. I think this is a settled gap, I don't see any red wall reversion being particularly driven by a reverse of this.
Approx cohort comparisons: 18-24s in 1997 Vs 35-44s in 2019: +9.0 25s -> 45s: +19.5 35s -> 55s: +20.5 45s/55s -> 65s +26.5 1997 olds replacement by 2019 youngs: -20.0
Everyone has swung right with age, some more than others, and I think this unrealised swing the Tories are banking on in the 35-44s is more than matched by the snapback potential in older groups and may be a somewhat forlorn hope.
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
Yes, the full quote is here, you are right they should have worded it more carefully:
"Albanians are the largest nationality in prisons accounting for 1,393 foreign national offenders, as of March 31, compared to 830 Poles, 823 Romanians, 391 Jamaicans and 380 Lithuanians.
That means Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population."
So they must mean "16 percent of all foreign prisoners in the UK?"
Sloppy writing
The total prison population in the UK is 87,000 so if there are 1,393 Albos in HMPs then that's roughly about 2% of the total, which means they are still wildly over-represented given that they are 0.05 of the population in total
An Albanian is 40 times more likely to be in jail than the average Brit. Astounding, really
I'm sure its a decimal point mistake, or meant to be percentage of foreign prisoners but its something that should be done properly.
Currently they are claiming that 16% of ALL prisoners are from Albania? Thats extremely inflammatory. The real figure is bad enough.
“Susie Green, the former chief executive of Mermaids, who stood down “unexpectedly” last year, has been hiding in plain sight for so long that I sincerely hope we can see her clearly now. How this woman was ever allowed to have so much influence over vulnerable children, never mind medical professionals, is frankly disturbing. She is a former IT consultant with no medical training – unless you count the fact that she won 2016’s Sparkle Diversity Champion of the Year as a specialised qualification. I certainly don’t. The story of how much power she came to have remains shocking.
“The organisation she ran was once not controversial; it was a support group for children and parents of kids with gender issues until she got her hands on it. It became an activist and lobby group receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds in lottery funding and grants and was hired by the Department for Education to provide training on “gender identity” in schools. As with Stonewall, it had huge reach into key institutions and the usual gormless celebrity support.
“We now find that Green herself had direct influence on policy at the gender identity development service (GIDS) at the Tavistock. After being told that the Tavistock did not have any records of meeting with Green, when threatened by court action, miraculously it found 300 pages of them.
“They reveal that Green spoke directly to the director Dr Polly Carmichael, had advisory roles on two studies and – most scandalous of all – could refer children for treatment at the clinic even when their own GPs had repeatedly advised against it. The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose. ”
The 'advisory roles on two studies' bit needs some context.
I'm aware of a study in this area and ethical approval was dependent on involvement of a mix of the trans charities, including Mermaids (and also some of the less affirmative charities) in an advisory role. Caused a headache when they were under investigation - University policy mandated no formal contact; ethical approval for the study - which was given before the Mermaids difficulties - required their involvement.
Also important to note that an 'advisory role' is just that. You're obliged to listen, but you are also obliged to do the research in what you think is the best way possible, taking into account but not necessarily following that advice (same with e.g. patient involvement; important but the patients don't decide how you do the study).
Yes, an awful lot of Telegraph spin going on here.
The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose & recommended it be replaced by a network of regional treatment centres.
Not quite the “crumbling of gender ideology” the Telegraph seems to think perhaps? But that seems fairly typical for the GC crowd: Every court case or report is breathlessly reframed as some great victory in their moral crusade & the Cass Review is no exception to this rule.
The Tavistock was a badly run shitshow by almost every account: Five year waiting lists! It’s no great surprise that their patient handling was poor: Total reform was clearly necessary.
Not sure if this is a criticism of the Cass Review. I thought it a very well-balanced document.
And one that people use to prove their point either way.
It isn't closing down GIDS only. It as you say recommends a network of regional treatment centres.
Equally, its most damning criticism was that other mental health and likely contributory issues were ignored or minimised and people sent down the gender dysphoria pathway.
"1.16. Another significant issue raised with us is one of diagnostic overshadowing – many of the children and young people presenting have complex needs, but once they are identified as having gender-related distress, other important healthcare issues that would normally be managed by local services can sometimes be overlooked."
Is Mark Kermode the greatest movie critic alive today?
These days you'd go for somebody on YouTube like Chris Stuckmann[1] or Jeremy Jahns[2]. Although having said that Kermode&Mayo do have a good presence on that space[3]
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
Not advice but it is somewhere I've always wanted to visit, and have looked into many times. So much around the Tian Shan looks spectacular (Issy-Kul etc.) and there are indeed sights to be seen in Bukhara and Samarkand.
In happier times, the way to get there would be to dog-leg off the Trans-Siberian. Beijing to Astana would be interesting though.
Everyone I know who has been there RAVES about Bukhara. Samarkand less so, but still mmmm
Is the lack of railway coverage on 4G/5G the biggest disgrace since 2010?
No - I'd argue there are far worse things. Too many people relying on foodbanks as their jobs don't pay enough. Not enough money into healthcare and no realistic ability to reform the system to a continental mix of public/private. Too little support for people who are too ill or disabled to work, including those affected by long covid. Too much time spent on a divisive referendum, that just refuses to die, even though the thing it was about has actually been completed. Too much reliance on overseas energy production, not enough on building green. sustainable and reliable 24/7 home capacity.
But hey, if you are pissed off that you can't download stuff fast enough on the train I guess you might think that lack of 4G/5G is the biggest disgrace since 2010.
It's an example of an inability for Government to do infrastructure properly, it is symbolic of a wider problem.
There should be no coverage gaps on the railway in 2023. Simple as that.
So is it the biggest disgrace as you asked? No. I think this is why I find your posts so annoying - you post something, someone replies, but you don't actually debate.
I think again I need to refer you to my previous post, my post wasn't entirely serious, clearly the lack of railway coverage is not the biggest disgrace since 2010. I am not going to sit here and explain every joke I make to you.
I am not on your humour wavelength, for which I can only apologise. In my defence, you do post a lot about 4G/5G and coverage - I'm not sure the clues were there that it was a joke!
I do think 4G/5G coverage is an issue and is something I do care about - but clearly it's not the most important issue facing the UK!
Bank accounts: I have to change my main current account. Thought I'd pick your brains.
I'm considering Starling vs First Direct. Any comments or other suggestions?
FD has a very long track record of excellent phone and internet service. Would strongly recommend.
I've been very pleased with First Direct.
Me too, since the late '90s. Every so often I've opened a current account with another provider and they've never been as good for what I want to do, and subsequently closed it again. If Barclays were the only retail bank available I would keep all my money in a safe and do cash only.
Can't comment on Starling though, which is what you need to know about more I guess.
I think in some cases you get through to the same call centre as you do as an HSBC customer but I've never understood why HSBC don't have all their support teams in the UK as well
“Susie Green, the former chief executive of Mermaids, who stood down “unexpectedly” last year, has been hiding in plain sight for so long that I sincerely hope we can see her clearly now. How this woman was ever allowed to have so much influence over vulnerable children, never mind medical professionals, is frankly disturbing. She is a former IT consultant with no medical training – unless you count the fact that she won 2016’s Sparkle Diversity Champion of the Year as a specialised qualification. I certainly don’t. The story of how much power she came to have remains shocking.
“The organisation she ran was once not controversial; it was a support group for children and parents of kids with gender issues until she got her hands on it. It became an activist and lobby group receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds in lottery funding and grants and was hired by the Department for Education to provide training on “gender identity” in schools. As with Stonewall, it had huge reach into key institutions and the usual gormless celebrity support.
“We now find that Green herself had direct influence on policy at the gender identity development service (GIDS) at the Tavistock. After being told that the Tavistock did not have any records of meeting with Green, when threatened by court action, miraculously it found 300 pages of them.
“They reveal that Green spoke directly to the director Dr Polly Carmichael, had advisory roles on two studies and – most scandalous of all – could refer children for treatment at the clinic even when their own GPs had repeatedly advised against it. The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose. ”
The 'advisory roles on two studies' bit needs some context.
I'm aware of a study in this area and ethical approval was dependent on involvement of a mix of the trans charities, including Mermaids (and also some of the less affirmative charities) in an advisory role. Caused a headache when they were under investigation - University policy mandated no formal contact; ethical approval for the study - which was given before the Mermaids difficulties - required their involvement.
Also important to note that an 'advisory role' is just that. You're obliged to listen, but you are also obliged to do the research in what you think is the best way possible, taking into account but not necessarily following that advice (same with e.g. patient involvement; important but the patients don't decide how you do the study).
Yes, an awful lot of Telegraph spin going on here.
The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose & recommended it be replaced by a network of regional treatment centres.
Not quite the “crumbling of gender ideology” the Telegraph seems to think perhaps? But that seems fairly typical for the GC crowd: Every court case or report is breathlessly reframed as some great victory in their moral crusade & the Cass Review is no exception to this rule.
The Tavistock was a badly run shitshow by almost every account: Five year waiting lists! It’s no great surprise that their patient handling was poor: Total reform was clearly necessary.
Not sure if this is a criticism of the Cass Review. I thought it a very well-balanced document.
And one that people use to prove their point either way.
It isn't closing down GIDS only. It as you say recommends a network of regional treatment centres.
Equally, its most damning criticism was that other mental health and likely contributory issues were ignored or minimised and people sent down the gender dysphoria pathway.
"1.16. Another significant issue raised with us is one of diagnostic overshadowing – many of the children and young people presenting have complex needs, but once they are identified as having gender-related distress, other important healthcare issues that would normally be managed by local services can sometimes be overlooked."
No criticism of the Cass Review intended - it’s description of GIDS as unfit for purpose (any purpose...) seems accurate & it’s proposals for what should replace it entirely reasonable.
It’s possible (indeed, entirely likely in my personal view) that both trans and GC criticisms of GIDS were entirely valid: GIDS was almost certainly failing to sufficiently investigate some patients & channelling them towards gender treatment inappropriately whilst also simultaneously failing to actually treat at all the majority of those who could have been helped by such treatment, had they been able to access it in a timely fashion.
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
Been to Tashkent and Bishkek. Both post-Soviet corrupt, crime-ridden shitholes. Not really the Disneyland-For-Old-Men SE Asia experience you normally crave.
Urumqi, Herat or Isfahan would be the truly interesting Central Asia choices.
You're teetotal. Iran is dry. I am, shall we say, less tolerant of sobriety than you, and I've already had a Captagon habit so that doesn't entice me
Urumqi? Hmm
I shall investigate, along with Bukhara
Grozhny. They drink like the fucking Queen Mother there. Reasonable chance of getting roofied if you succumb to temptation and dally with a local blyat'. They've also got the second largest mosque in the Russian Federation. It's ticking a lot of boxes.
Bank accounts: I have to change my main current account. Thought I'd pick your brains.
I'm considering Starling vs First Direct. Any comments or other suggestions?
FD has a very long track record of excellent phone and internet service. Would strongly recommend.
I've been very pleased with First Direct.
Me too, since the late '90s. Every so often I've opened a current account with another provider and they've never been as good for what I want to do, and subsequently closed it again. If Barclays were the only retail bank available I would keep all my money in a safe and do cash only.
Can't comment on Starling though, which is what you need to know about more I guess.
I think in some cases you get through to the same call centre as you do as an HSBC customer but I've never understood why HSBC don't have all their support teams in the UK as well
I use, and like, Smile, the Co-op’s internet bank. Does what I want it to, when I want it to. Normally, anyway.
“Susie Green, the former chief executive of Mermaids, who stood down “unexpectedly” last year, has been hiding in plain sight for so long that I sincerely hope we can see her clearly now. How this woman was ever allowed to have so much influence over vulnerable children, never mind medical professionals, is frankly disturbing. She is a former IT consultant with no medical training – unless you count the fact that she won 2016’s Sparkle Diversity Champion of the Year as a specialised qualification. I certainly don’t. The story of how much power she came to have remains shocking.
“The organisation she ran was once not controversial; it was a support group for children and parents of kids with gender issues until she got her hands on it. It became an activist and lobby group receiving hundreds of thousands of pounds in lottery funding and grants and was hired by the Department for Education to provide training on “gender identity” in schools. As with Stonewall, it had huge reach into key institutions and the usual gormless celebrity support.
“We now find that Green herself had direct influence on policy at the gender identity development service (GIDS) at the Tavistock. After being told that the Tavistock did not have any records of meeting with Green, when threatened by court action, miraculously it found 300 pages of them.
“They reveal that Green spoke directly to the director Dr Polly Carmichael, had advisory roles on two studies and – most scandalous of all – could refer children for treatment at the clinic even when their own GPs had repeatedly advised against it. The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose. ”
The 'advisory roles on two studies' bit needs some context.
I'm aware of a study in this area and ethical approval was dependent on involvement of a mix of the trans charities, including Mermaids (and also some of the less affirmative charities) in an advisory role. Caused a headache when they were under investigation - University policy mandated no formal contact; ethical approval for the study - which was given before the Mermaids difficulties - required their involvement.
Also important to note that an 'advisory role' is just that. You're obliged to listen, but you are also obliged to do the research in what you think is the best way possible, taking into account but not necessarily following that advice (same with e.g. patient involvement; important but the patients don't decide how you do the study).
Yes, an awful lot of Telegraph spin going on here.
The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose & recommended it be replaced by a network of regional treatment centres.
Not quite the “crumbling of gender ideology” the Telegraph seems to think perhaps? But that seems fairly typical for the GC crowd: Every court case or report is breathlessly reframed as some great victory in their moral crusade & the Cass Review is no exception to this rule.
The Tavistock was a badly run shitshow by almost every account: Five year waiting lists! It’s no great surprise that their patient handling was poor: Total reform was clearly necessary.
Not sure if this is a criticism of the Cass Review. I thought it a very well-balanced document.
And one that people use to prove their point either way.
It isn't closing down GIDS only. It as you say recommends a network of regional treatment centres.
Equally, its most damning criticism was that other mental health and likely contributory issues were ignored or minimised and people sent down the gender dysphoria pathway.
"1.16. Another significant issue raised with us is one of diagnostic overshadowing – many of the children and young people presenting have complex needs, but once they are identified as having gender-related distress, other important healthcare issues that would normally be managed by local services can sometimes be overlooked."
No criticism of the Cass Review intended - it’s description of GIDS as unfit for purpose (any purpose...) seems accurate & it’s proposals for what should replace it entirely reasonable.
It’s possible (indeed, entirely likely in my personal view) that both trans and GC criticisms of GIDS were entirely valid: GIDS was almost certainly failing to sufficiently investigate some patients & channelling them towards gender treatment inappropriately whilst also simultaneously failing to actually treat at all those who could have been helped by such treatment, had they been able to access it in a timely fashion.
Yes there are several factors many stemming from the explosion in demand. Itself an interesting phenomenon.
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
A mate of mine is currently on holiday in Samarkand with his family and judging from his FB posts is having an amazing time.
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
Yes, the full quote is here, you are right they should have worded it more carefully:
"Albanians are the largest nationality in prisons accounting for 1,393 foreign national offenders, as of March 31, compared to 830 Poles, 823 Romanians, 391 Jamaicans and 380 Lithuanians.
That means Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population."
So they must mean "16 percent of all foreign prisoners in the UK?"
Sloppy writing
The total prison population in the UK is 87,000 so if there are 1,393 Albos in HMPs then that's roughly about 2% of the total, which means they are still wildly over-represented given that they are 0.05 of the population in total
An Albanian is 40 times more likely to be in jail than the average Brit. Astounding, really
Incidentally you've made the classic mistake of believing that the most-quoted prison numbers refer to the UK when actually they're just England and Wales. There are another 7,500 prisoners in Scotland and around 1,800 in Northern Ireland. So around 95,000 prisoners in the UK in total.
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
Been to Tashkent and Bishkek. Both post-Soviet corrupt, crime-ridden shitholes. Not really the Disneyland-For-Old-Men SE Asia experience you normally crave.
Urumqi, Herat or Isfahan would be the truly interesting Central Asia choices.
You're teetotal. Iran is dry. I am, shall we say, less tolerant of sobriety than you, and I've already had a Captagon habit so that doesn't entice me
Urumqi? Hmm
I shall investigate, along with Bukhara
Grozhny. They drink like the fucking Queen Mother there. Reasonable chance of getting roofied if you succumb to temptation and dally with a local blyat'. They've also got the second largest mosque in the Russian Federation. It's ticking a lot of boxes.
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
Looks like a classic case where a bit of common sense about numbers would have helped. Not unlike Labour's recent claims that no-one has been at work at all for years...
The YouTube algorithm has spat out its occasional unusual pick. It does this sometimes, with a thing surfacing from years ago for no known reason. Today it's a 14-yr old video from Tom Scott, back in the student days when he had a ponytail. Here is his vid from 2009 on how to remove your fingerprints
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
Looks like a classic case where a bit of common sense about numbers would have helped. Not unlike Labour's recent claims that no-one has been at work at all for years...
Even Uzbekistan - UZBEKISTAN - has a high speed train network
"The high-speed line has reduced train travel between Tashkent and Bukhara from seven hours to just under three. The city’s train station is 10km south of the centre, and taxi touts ply the station’s car park when trains arrive. Bargain hard (around 4000 som should get you to town) or hop on Minibus 68 to Lyabi-Hauz."
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
Went on a stag do to Daşoguz in Turkmenistan. Amazing. Like a Central Asian Las Vegas. Loved every second. You'll need at least three weeks to do it properly.
At this rate Britain will be literally the last country on earth to have a high speed train, as we race to beat the Greenlanders but get pipped in 2037 as they open the Nuuq-Ilullissat line, as we debate whether to rebuild Euston with two platforms or none
“Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all jail inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population.”
I can't see the article because it's paywalled but 16% seems like an enormous number. Are you sure it's right? Maybe it's the proportion of *foreign national* inmates or something like that?
Looks like a classic case where a bit of common sense about numbers would have helped. Not unlike Labour's recent claims that no-one has been at work at all for years...
Lovely and wholly unnecessary whataboutery there!
Nah - it was so bad its stuck in my mind.
The concept of proportionality seems lost - number X seems large, but the overall number Y…
Bit like 250k homes empty sounds a lot, until you consider that’s out of tens on millions. So it’s actually less than 1%.
At this rate Britain will be literally the last country on earth to have a high speed train, as we race to beat the Greenlanders but get pipped in 2037 as they open the Nuuq-Ilullissat line, as we debate whether to rebuild Euston with two platforms or none
The Javelins on HS1 are high speed trains on a high speed line. I was on it this morning from Ashford to St Pancras.
At this rate Britain will be literally the last country on earth to have a high speed train, as we race to beat the Greenlanders but get pipped in 2037 as they open the Nuuq-Ilullissat line, as we debate whether to rebuild Euston with two platforms or none
If I remember correctly you were one of the people who celebrated the fact that HS2 and HS1 weren't going to be linked as originally planned, because it would cause too much disruption in Camden.
Comments
Hence such schemes.
I'm considering Starling vs First Direct. Any comments or other suggestions?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/05/17/d5ba5/1
Technically the Tories could win most seats, albeit not a majority even if they lose most voters under 50 as the median voter is now aged 50
TBH most people (myself included) don't have much of a clue about how planning and building actually works, and if the question ' are you for or against building on green belt?' is put to you, it doesn't surprise me to hear that a majority oppose it. If you're uninformed it just kind of sounds bad (but as we know there is green belt and there is green belt).
In fact the LDs made net gains from the Conservatives
#Cover-up !
I swore off HSBC after they were vile to me years ago, so FD has never been option for me - but I believe they routinely top satisfaction charts and whatnot.
I understand Starling are quite good on the small business front but can't speak with any authority on that.
I'm aware of a study in this area and ethical approval was dependent on involvement of a mix of the trans charities, including Mermaids (and also some of the less affirmative charities) in an advisory role. Caused a headache when they were under investigation - University policy mandated no formal contact; ethical approval for the study - which was given before the Mermaids difficulties - required their involvement.
Also important to note that an 'advisory role' is just that. You're obliged to listen, but you are also obliged to do the research in what you think is the best way possible, taking into account but not necessarily following that advice (same with e.g. patient involvement; important but the patients don't decide how you do the study).
Mix and match with Labour's removal of speculative land value gains*, and it would transform the housing market.
*That might also provide financial headroom for LAs to prudently borrow against housing developments.
Some rather elegant polling recently on the issue:
Describe what the green belt is without naming it, and you get 29% saying planning permission should never be given there.
Ask the same question adding the term Green Belt, and that goes up to 46% (though even then you have 43% saying that planning permission should be given at least some of the time).
https://twitter.com/BenCooper1995/status/1659595003537006592
Kermode is a great broadcaster-critic but I don't think he's a great writer.
Another problem with suitably named “Casino Theory” is Sunak’s ratings are on the way down. He has to stand by Braverman now, she has become unsackable. Imagine Suella laying into all sorts of government policy from outside cabinet. A week is a long time in politics, who knows what else Braverman etc who he appointed and stands by, have in their closets.
Indeed what’s in the what’s app messages, for it sure ain’t Boris that Sunak is protecting by not sharing them.
From this point on Sunak’s ratings can only deteriorate. We’ve long passed peak Sunak.
On the other hand the cumulative damage of withholding it and then being forced to reveal it is greater still.
On the other other hand, if the former is an atom bomb and the latter a hand grenade, you might be inclined to hold out hope for the withholding solution.
More money pissed up the wall thanks to Brexit.
But I want to get down to the nitty gritty and the question EVERYONE is asking... What on earth has happened to Eamonn Holmes face?
Good morning PB.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Prof Stock's invitation should stand.
He added: "Agree or disagree with her, Professor Stock is an important figure in this argument. Students should be allowed to hear and debate her views.
Why is Rishi Sunak getting involved in the business of a university?
Well done tories, you complete fucking clowns.
Good morning.
Secondly, because free speech and freedom of expression is important, and as PM, I'd like him to have a view about it.
What's wrong with that?
The Cass Review, remember, effectively shut down GIDS as it was not fit for purpose & recommended it be replaced by a network of regional treatment centres.
Not quite the “crumbling of gender ideology” the Telegraph seems to think perhaps? But that seems fairly typical for the GC crowd: Every court case or report is breathlessly reframed as some great victory in their moral crusade & the Cass Review is no exception to this rule.
The Tavistock was a badly run shitshow by almost every account: Five year waiting lists! It’s no great surprise that their patient handling was poor: Total reform was clearly necessary.
At least the Russians have admittedly today their attacks on Ukraine are terrorism, and should be seen and tried as such, if they call their war attacks on Moscow terrorism.
https://www-lefier-nl.translate.goog/projecten/appartementen-midscheeps-lewenborg/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
But hey, if you are pissed off that you can't download stuff fast enough on the train I guess you might think that lack of 4G/5G is the biggest disgrace since 2010.
Edit: I see the government paid some & the council owns the port, so they were on the hook for implementing the necessary facilities & borrowed the rest, hence the debt.
If you do end up paying duty on something sent to you it has always been a matter of bad luck rather than the rule
There should be no coverage gaps on the railway in 2023. Simple as that.
Who knows ?
The Telegraph is no longer functioning like a daily newspaper, just some sort of echo chamber for dwindling readership or plaything for editorial team who should use social media for that sort of playing instead, not a national institution. I think this is very sad. ☹️
Has anyone been to central Asia? One of the stans?
I've never been, I'm keen to go, I have some spare time this summer when I need to base myself somewhere - but I fancy somewhere unusual that I've never seen before, coz I like new places. The Stans fit the bill, they are also cheap
Any advice? I hear Bukhara is beautiful in Uzbekistan and apparently Kyrgyzstan is quite something....
It doesn’t really matter which group of people you choose to identify as moral deviants in this game, so long as they can be convincingly framed as such by a drumbeat of continuous press coverage. This time around it’s trans people.
(There’s also some bleed over from the US, where anti-trans campaigning has been enthusiastically taken up by the anti-abortion groups like the Heritage Foundation.)
UK prison pop approx 80k.
There were 81806 prisoners in 2022 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_prison_population ), so that’s 1.6%
Has someone dropped a decimal point?
In happier times, the way to get there would be to dog-leg off the Trans-Siberian. Beijing to Astana would be interesting though.
Basically Network Rail will need an upgrade from GSM-R based signaling to FRMCS (5G for railways), and they hope to get that with a deal to put commerical masts alongside the railway to deliver 4G/5G to passengers, and also give access to their fibre optic network, or at least the trenches. That should make a huge difference to mobile coverage of the railways, as currently a passenger's phone will frequently be trying to connect to masts far from the railyway line itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7eLBwCAwmo
Not unlike Labour's recent claims that no-one has been at work at all for years...
Urumqi, Herat or Isfahan would be the truly interesting Central Asia choices.
Can't comment on Starling though, which is what you need to know about more I guess.
But then I only listened for the "banter" as I am not really a film buff.
"Albanians are the largest nationality in prisons accounting for 1,393 foreign national offenders, as of March 31, compared to 830 Poles, 823 Romanians, 391 Jamaicans and 380 Lithuanians.
That means Albanians are one in six, 16 per cent, of all inmates despite representing fewer than 0.05 per cent of the UK population."
So they must mean "16 percent of all foreign prisoners in the UK?"
Sloppy writing
The total prison population in the UK is 87,000 so if there are 1,393 Albos in HMPs then that's roughly about 2% of the total, which means they are still wildly over-represented given that they are 0.05 of the population in total
An Albanian is 40 times more likely to be in jail than the average Brit. Astounding, really
I will put Peter Oborne in charge and run it for me. A Conservative newspaper needs a boss who understands the difference between populism and conservatism so can maintain it as a conservative newspaper. Also Oborne will ensure it stands apart from every political party, not become a plaything of any political party, that will restore the newspapers journalistic integrity. It will also need journalistic integrity from the newspapers and owners commercial interests.
As a nod to right wing populist claptrap, I think I would hire Leon to give a weekly column with a roaming brief for leftfield gonzo journalism, rather like rolling stone hired Hunter S Thompson.
All that would help set the world back to rights, because the Daily Telegraph no longer being a proper newspaper is very sad. ☹️
[EDIT: somebody else has already made the same point]
Urumqi? Hmm
I shall investigate, along with Bukhara
This gives some absolute figures to go with the relative swing figures that headlined a couple of weeks ago.
2024 will be interesting, as it will be on a lower overall swing and I expect some differentials to, slightly, wind out.
Swings between 1997-2019 (+ means in favour of Conservative, i.e. with the run of play):
Overall swing: +12.5
Male swing: +14.5
Female swing: +10.5
Women have gone from 1% to the right of males in 1997 to 3% left of males in 2019. I expect this trend to accelerate a little, as incoming 18-24s are more split by gender.
By age at time of voting:
1997 18-25s vs 2019 18-25s: -11.0
25-34s: -1.5
35-44s: +8.0
45-54s: +14.0
55-64s: +12.0
65+s: +26.0
18-24s were an 8% swing to the left of 65s in 1997 and are 45% swing to the left now. I expect such gaps to narrow a little in 2024.
By class:
AB: +4.0
C1: +8.0
C2: +20.5
DE: +22.0
DEs were 24% swing to the left of ABs in 1997 and are 6% swing to the left now. I think this is a settled gap, I don't see any red wall reversion being particularly driven by a reverse of this.
Approx cohort comparisons:
18-24s in 1997 Vs 35-44s in 2019: +9.0
25s -> 45s: +19.5
35s -> 55s: +20.5
45s/55s -> 65s +26.5
1997 olds replacement by 2019 youngs: -20.0
Everyone has swung right with age, some more than others, and I think this unrealised swing the Tories are banking on in the 35-44s is more than matched by the snapback potential in older groups and may be a somewhat forlorn hope.
Currently they are claiming that 16% of ALL prisoners are from Albania? Thats extremely inflammatory.
The real figure is bad enough.
And one that people use to prove their point either way.
It isn't closing down GIDS only. It as you say recommends a network of regional treatment centres.
Equally, its most damning criticism was that other mental health and likely contributory issues were ignored or minimised and people sent down the gender dysphoria pathway.
"1.16. Another significant issue raised with us is one of diagnostic overshadowing – many of the children and young people presenting have complex needs, but once they are identified as having gender-related distress, other important healthcare issues that would normally be managed by local services can sometimes
be overlooked."
Although having said that Kermode&Mayo do have a good presence on that space[3]
[EDIT: honorable mention of RedLetterMedia[4]]
[1] https://www.youtube.com/@ChrisStuckmann
[2] https://www.youtube.com/@JeremyJahns
[3] https://www.youtube.com/@kermodeandmayostake
[4] https://www.youtube.com/@RedLetterMedia
It’s possible (indeed, entirely likely in my personal view) that both trans and GC criticisms of GIDS were entirely valid: GIDS was almost certainly failing to sufficiently investigate some patients & channelling them towards gender treatment inappropriately whilst also simultaneously failing to actually treat at all the majority of those who could have been helped by such treatment, had they been able to access it in a timely fashion.
https://pollingreport.uk/polls
Peter Kellner has just published a document saying that uniform swing is usually more accurate than proportional swing.
https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/05/24/how-grumblers-and-defectors-have-laid-a-trap-for-our-pollsters/
Normally, anyway.
!!!!
Even Uzbekistan - UZBEKISTAN - has a high speed train network
"The high-speed line has reduced train travel between Tashkent and Bukhara from seven hours to just under three. The city’s train station is 10km south of the centre, and taxi touts ply the station’s car park when trains arrive. Bargain hard (around 4000 som should get you to town) or hop on Minibus 68 to Lyabi-Hauz."
https://www.lonelyplanet.com/articles/easy-uzbekistan-the-silk-road-by-high-speed-train
Bit like 250k homes empty sounds a lot, until you consider that’s out of tens on millions. So it’s actually less than 1%.