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Why I’m betting on 40/1 Nikki Haley for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,753
edited May 2023 in General
imageWhy I’m betting on 40/1 Nikki Haley for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

My one WH2024 Republican nomination bet so far is on the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. That is pretty impressive CV.

Read the full story here

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    eekeek Posts: 25,334
    First and Yep 2 decent reasons to get in at 40-1
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,027
    edited May 2023
    I think her campaign is going to suck.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,309
    Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

    "Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."

    (This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,119
    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?
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    eekeek Posts: 25,334
    carnforth said:

    Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

    "Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."

    (This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)

    Without a battery factory all car manufacturing would be heading abroad.

    With 1 there is a chance our car manufacturing will continue and (might) even expand...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,675
    By recent standards she will be ready to stand for election by 2068.
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    I have no idea if she's as totally batcrap crazy as DeSantis and Trump but it almost feels like nobody could be worse, so rather hope she wins by default.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,027
    edited May 2023
    That said if the RDS shit show turns out to be as shit as thought, Haley could be the last clown standing to taken on Trump and if his legal problems get worse....
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,675
    eek said:

    carnforth said:

    Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

    "Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."

    (This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)

    Without a battery factory all car manufacturing would be heading abroad.

    With 1 there is a chance our car manufacturing will continue and (might) even expand...
    We need more than 1 but it is a good start. Should help to keep some of Tata Steel open too.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,334

    That said if the RDS shit show turns out to be as shit as though, Haley could be the last clown standing to taken on Trump and if his legal problems get worse....

    RDS? - sorry but RDS to me is a relational database system...
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    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,675
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Beautiful. Thanks for the link.

    Edit pure anecdote but the period from 17 to about 23 is a bloody tough one for girls and not much better for their parents.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,681
    Thanks for the tip - have dipped a toe in the market (not much liquidity - my bets shifted narrowed the odds...)
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,119
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Beautiful. Thanks for the link.
    Isn't it? Tho it has to be said Janis Ian was far from an "ugly duckling". A lovely young woman, in that video. But I guess that's the point of the lyrics, it's all about the awkward self-perception of being 17

    I confess that rendition made me tear up a bit, partly coz of the older daughter's birthday - so nearly an adult! - but also because it is so gorgeously sad: as a song

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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,299
    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Happy birthday to your daughter. My own eldest turns 17 in a couple of months. Forget about what happened to music - what happened to the last 17 years!
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,300
    I'm not a betting or USA politics expert but 40-1 seems good value to me and thus a good bet 👍
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,027
    If the GOP had any sense, which of course they don’t, they’d get behind her for the nomination. Much better chance of winning the centre ground than either DeSantis or Trump.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,681

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    I think you can both be right, to an extent. He has achieved something that very few Brits ever do - he's been Chancellor of the Exchequer and is now PM. You may think that's trivial, but to do this he's had to be selected as a candidate, win a seat, be noticed enough to achieve cabinet rank etc. Then circumstance has enabled him to grasp the crown as it was rudely knocked from first Johnson and then Truss's heads. So no, he is not rubbish at politics.

    And yet.

    As PM he seems to lack the right instincts, takes time to come to decisions (not always a bad trait) and doesn't always get it right. In the normal run of politics, with 4 or 5 years in the role, he may have matured. As it is its likely to be thanks but no thanks next spring, and off to make a shed more money for Richi Rishi.

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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,119

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Happy birthday to your daughter. My own eldest turns 17 in a couple of months. Forget about what happened to music - what happened to the last 17 years!
    Yes, that too

    Shocked Emoji Face

    Tho I do recommend watching that video. Utterly haunting
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,299
    Just catching up on the PMQ exchanges. I liked Starmer's barb about the Home Sec and points based systems but I thought his substantive point about immigration was interesting too. I had no idea that under the government's rules they are allowed to pay people brought in on work visas 20% less than domestic workers. Is this right? Sounds crazy - and so much for the high wage economy under Brexit!
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,186
    Issue she has is that both sides hate her.

    The RINOs believe she backed Trump too early (she was one of the first to do so)

    The Trumpists believe she abandoned ship too early (she was one of the first to do so)

    The fact that she is very talented, with an successful stint as an executive leader of a state and foreign policy experience (as well as being both a woman and a minority not that that should matter) doesn’t seem to be a factor that is considered

    She is probably the best candidate from both parties.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,675
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Beautiful. Thanks for the link.
    Isn't it? Tho it has to be said Janis Ian was far from an "ugly duckling". A lovely young woman, in that video. But I guess that's the point of the lyrics, it's all about the awkward self-perception of being 17

    I confess that rendition made me tear up a bit, partly coz of the older daughter's birthday - so nearly an adult! - but also because it is so gorgeously sad: as a song

    She was clearly thinking about those lyrics when introducing this speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSMTZr6kPOM

    It is one of the best descriptions of the joy and burden of being an artist I have ever heard.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,973
    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?
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    Haley is an excellent candidate. The problem is that Tim Scott has thrown his hat into the ring and that is already causing problems. It's splitting the vote in South Carolina and there's no guarantee that either Haley or Scott will win their home state.

    Long-time GOP aides and donors are either sitting this one out until the picture becomes a little 'clearer'. Rob Godfrey (who was Haley's deputy Chief of Staff) has already announced he's remaining neutral whilst others in the state GOP are picking sides. Scott has already picked off some pretty impressive names locally, including longstanding supporters of Haley.

    Haley and Scott will battle it out for the votes in and around Charleston and Mount Pleasant but Haley should win these. Haley should win in counties like Jasper, Beaufort and Bamberg (her home county). I can see Scott taking Horry and Georgetown counties (Myrtle Beach, Georgetown). The counties in and around Columbia (Lexington, Richland, Calhoun, Sumter) will be a battle. Haley has built up a lot of political capital so should win here but Scott is liked and is already showing some skill at picking up support. Counties like Florence, Marion or Darlington should go to Haley (similar to Bamberg). The real battleground will be in the Piedmont, up around the educated and liberal urban areas of Spartanburg and Greenville. I can see Scott taking this with his appeal to the university communities.

    Haley is highly regarded amongst the public in South Carolina. Anybody that can take on more established and 'old school' attitudes (as she did), surely deserves a chance at the White House.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,027
    edited May 2023

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Though to be fair, Johnson does make an oversized contribution for the Tories, and unlike so many of the other nobodies, was also PM for over three years.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,215
    Surely the only apt comment on the current state of the Tory party is "When thieves fall out, honest men come by their own."
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,027
    edited May 2023
    And introducing ULEZ a scandal? Really?
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    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    I think you can both be right, to an extent. He has achieved something that very few Brits ever do - he's been Chancellor of the Exchequer and is now PM. You may think that's trivial, but to do this he's had to be selected as a candidate, win a seat, be noticed enough to achieve cabinet rank etc. Then circumstance has enabled him to grasp the crown as it was rudely knocked from first Johnson and then Truss's heads. So no, he is not rubbish at politics.

    And yet.

    As PM he seems to lack the right instincts, takes time to come to decisions (not always a bad trait) and doesn't always get it right. In the normal run of politics, with 4 or 5 years in the role, he may have matured. As it is its likely to be thanks but no thanks next spring, and off to make a shed more money for Richi Rishi.

    I totally agree. I concede to you on this.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,068

    And. ULEZ a scandal? Really?

    Controversial but yes shows up the list as highly biased putting it in as a "scandal".
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,505

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    Being 'good at politics' is a mixed blessing. Do you think someone like George Osborne would be a better PM? I don't.
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    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    Being 'good at politics' is a mixed blessing. Do you think someone like George Osborne would be a better PM? I don't.
    Yes I do.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,027
    Pulpstar said:

    And. ULEZ a scandal? Really?

    Controversial but yes shows up the list as highly biased putting it in as a "scandal".
    And the description of it is a little loaded …
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,505

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    Being 'good at politics' is a mixed blessing. Do you think someone like George Osborne would be a better PM? I don't.
    Yes I do.
    In what way? He'd spend all his time trying to salt the earth for Starmer.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,247

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    Hang on, I thought you were a Tory voter on strike and "tempted" by Starmer?
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    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited May 2023

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    Hang on, I thought you were a Tory voter on strike and "tempted" by Starmer?
    I never said that.

    I'd vote for George Osborne.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,247

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    Being 'good at politics' is a mixed blessing. Do you think someone like George Osborne would be a better PM? I don't.
    Rishi goes head down into problem-solving mode and pops up with solutions and agreements now and again in batch. When a political problem arises he deliberates and then makes an evidence based decision.

    It's a great way to operate as an executive director in a business - and so he is certainly not "crap" - but it's not enough to be a successful politician.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,247

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    I think you can both be right, to an extent. He has achieved something that very few Brits ever do - he's been Chancellor of the Exchequer and is now PM. You may think that's trivial, but to do this he's had to be selected as a candidate, win a seat, be noticed enough to achieve cabinet rank etc. Then circumstance has enabled him to grasp the crown as it was rudely knocked from first Johnson and then Truss's heads. So no, he is not rubbish at politics.

    And yet.

    As PM he seems to lack the right instincts, takes time to come to decisions (not always a bad trait) and doesn't always get it right. In the normal run of politics, with 4 or 5 years in the role, he may have matured. As it is its likely to be thanks but no thanks next spring, and off to make a shed more money for Richi Rishi.

    He needs to deliver on economy, taxes, migration, boats etc. and lay-out an exciting vision for 2030 that rivals Labour.

    He needs to get strategic not just tactical. And that needs to have a strong retail offer.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,505

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    Being 'good at politics' is a mixed blessing. Do you think someone like George Osborne would be a better PM? I don't.
    Rishi goes head down into problem-solving mode and pops up with solutions and agreements now and again in batch. When a political problem arises he deliberates and then makes an evidence based decision.

    It's a great way to operate as an executive director in a business - and so he is certainly not "crap" - but it's not enough to be a successful politician.
    If the previous guy had had a few loyal deputies like that, his government could have been very successful.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,027

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    Being 'good at politics' is a mixed blessing. Do you think someone like George Osborne would be a better PM? I don't.
    Rishi goes head down into problem-solving mode and pops up with solutions and agreements now and again in batch. When a political problem arises he deliberates and then makes an evidence based decision.

    It's a great way to operate as an executive director in a business - and so he is certainly not "crap" - but it's not enough to be a successful politician.
    I think this is a very astute assessment. It’s why he’s definitely head and shoulders above other recent PMs - and it’s a relief to have him at the helm. But also why he’s unlikely to reap any significant political benefit.
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    LDLFLDLF Posts: 146
    edited May 2023
    Haley seems to have the capacity to reach across the political divide, in the way the other great white dopes currently in contention for the nomination (or indeed Joe Biden himself) probably can't. But the Republican Party base has gone bonkers and Haley is probably not extreme enough to clear that first stage of the electorate. The Liz Kendall of the GOP, perhaps?

    Trump also seems to be annoyed that she has the temerity to stand at all, though he may well prefer her to De Santis so coud still support her if for some reason he is rendered unable to compete.

    I think either Haley or De Santis could potentially beat Biden. From a foreign policy view I suspect neither would change his position on either Russia or China, which is frankly what matters to the rest of the world, and they probably would continue the 'America first' trade policy of both Trump and Biden.

    If Trump gets the nomination again it is very difficult to see how Biden doesn't win (short of expiring). The only way I could see a Trump win happening is if the Republicans (and media sympathetic to Trump) succeed in muddying the waters around the Hunter Biden story so as to big it up to be as big of a deal as the Trump's own machinations - think of the tremendous fuss in 2016 over Clinton's emails. So a Trump/Biden rematch would probably make US politics become that little bit more 'Brazillian' in flavour.
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    pingping Posts: 3,748
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    carnforth said:

    Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

    "Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."

    (This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)

    Without a battery factory all car manufacturing would be heading abroad.

    With 1 there is a chance our car manufacturing will continue and (might) even expand...
    We need more than 1 but it is a good start. Should help to keep some of Tata Steel open too.
    If they’re demanding to suck on the teat of the British Taxpayer, we should just nationalise them.

    Or make a strategic decision to exit mass car-making altogether. Let the Chinese/Americans/Europeans/Koreans//Japanese compete to export their EV’s and spend the half a billion on universities etc to bet on creating the next ARM of car manufacturing. Or whatever.

    Go up the value chain.

    I don’t blame the mates of Rishi’s in-laws for taking the piss, but that’s precisely what we’re letting them do.

    It’s in our national interest to tell Tata to go fuck themselves.

    Politely.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,651

    Thanks for the tip - have dipped a toe in the market (not much liquidity - my bets shifted narrowed the odds...)

    Just looked... Had completely forgotten that I did a trade on Haley in Jan/Feb - bought at 21 and sold at 14 a couple of weeks later. No recollection whatsoever, so I guess the buy was a tip on here (thank you whoever that was). Why was everyone excited (apparently - in to 14!) about Haley in January?

    I've not bothered this time, for the amounts and odds on offer, but the 40/1 tip or thereabouts looks a reasonable trader.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,309

    Just catching up on the PMQ exchanges. I liked Starmer's barb about the Home Sec and points based systems but I thought his substantive point about immigration was interesting too. I had no idea that under the government's rules they are allowed to pay people brought in on work visas 20% less than domestic workers. Is this right? Sounds crazy - and so much for the high wage economy under Brexit!

    Yes and no. The minimum wage for which you can get the visa is 80% of the median wage for that job.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,581
    edited May 2023
    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    The question of independence or staying in the Union isn't going away. Support for Scottish independence has dipped, though our poll finds a small lead for Yes: among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 53% say they'd vote Yes while 47% say they'd vote No
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    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 671
    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Damn, you made me agree with you!
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138

    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    53-47 in favour of independence too. Hmm.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,581
    Farooq said:

    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    53-47 in favour of independence too. Hmm.
    Yes - I just edited that
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,675

    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    The question of independence or staying in the Union isn't going away. Support for Scottish independence has dipped, though our poll finds a small lead for Yes: among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 53% say they'd vote Yes while 47% say they'd vote No

    I think I liked the Yougov one better!
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,490
    edited May 2023

    @TheScreamingEagles I'm the only leftie here not predicting a majority, hardly getting high on my own supply.

    I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.

    Being 'good at politics' is a mixed blessing. Do you think someone like George Osborne would be a better PM? I don't.
    Rishi goes head down into problem-solving mode and pops up with solutions and agreements now and again in batch. When a political problem arises he deliberates and then makes an evidence based decision.

    It's a great way to operate as an executive director in a business - and so he is certainly not "crap" - but it's not enough to be a successful politician.
    If the previous guy had had a few loyal deputies like that, his government could have been very successful.
    He did, but used them poorly. Johnson had a range of major flaws, of which a relatively minor one was his unwillingness to confine himself to the "showman" role to which he was best suited. He wouldn't just say "you make the product, and I'll sell it".

    Bigger problems included being a fundamentally dishonest human being, believing rules were for other people, and demanding loyalty from others that he would never reciprocate (he was charming but anyone sensible knew he'd cheerfully stab them between the shoulder blades if it was expedient at any given moment).
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,119
    DavidL said:

    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    The question of independence or staying in the Union isn't going away. Support for Scottish independence has dipped, though our poll finds a small lead for Yes: among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 53% say they'd vote Yes while 47% say they'd vote No

    I think I liked the Yougov one better!
    I wonder if support for indy is buoyant BECAUSE it is now highly unlikely to happen for a long time, if ever

    If people really wanted indy they would be voting SNP - as it is the only route to indy - the polls suggest they are not going to do that

    So now indy is more of a vague aspiration than a political choice, and it is far easier to vaguely aspire than it is to make a tough painful choice
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,353
    Farooq said:

    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    53-47 in favour of independence too. Hmm.
    Westminster for Scotland is like by election for England, time to show your displeasure. By time Holyrood comes round the independence vote will be higher and will be then we see whether SNP have cleared out the dross or will take a humping. Clocking is ticking for any real independence supporting MSP's to grow a pair of balls.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,581
    DavidL said:

    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    The question of independence or staying in the Union isn't going away. Support for Scottish independence has dipped, though our poll finds a small lead for Yes: among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 53% say they'd vote Yes while 47% say they'd vote No

    I think I liked the Yougov one better!
    This poll does test the view that the SNP are seriously damaged and I expect a lot will now depend on the police investigations and outcomes
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,602
    40/1 sounds good - and even if it isn't it's nice to hear about somebody other than the gruesome twosome.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    DougSeal said:

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Hmmm

    - Diane Abbott has the whip suspended and this is labelled "barely anything"?
    - ULEZ is a "scandal" rather than a policy disagreement?
    - "kneeling for Marxist organisation"?
    - Chris Pincher's sexual assault a fifth the "scandal rating" as Sue Grey's "revolving door" (whatever that is)

    I have just a sneaking suspicion which side this chap's political bread is buttered. But I may be wrong
    Bias is one thing but this is an insult to the intelligence of anyone.
    I know Leon thinks everyone is getting thicker but hell, nobody's that thick... unless Carlotta shared it in earnest agreement...
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,942
    Just one local by-election tomorrow - in North Yorkshire. It is normally a safe Labour seat but there is an interesting background. The sitting councillor resigned from the party and then from the council. But he is standing again as a No Description.
  • Options

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Are we supposed to take this seriously as a measure of current scandals?
    Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
    Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
    No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
    No mention of Richard Sharp
    I can't even be bothered to go on
    Are you suggesting Carlotta's effort isn't a wholly objective, meticulously researched, taxonomy of scandal? That's a very serious allegation.

    I'd point out it's in an Excel spreadsheet, so constitutes proper science as far as I am concerned.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    53-47 in favour of independence too. Hmm.
    Westminster for Scotland is like by election for England, time to show your displeasure. By time Holyrood comes round the independence vote will be higher and will be then we see whether SNP have cleared out the dross or will take a humping. Clocking is ticking for any real independence supporting MSP's to grow a pair of balls.
    You know, I'm not actually clear what you think the MSPs should actually do. What do you actually recommend independence-supporting MSPs do to hurry things along?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,686
    edited May 2023

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Hmm, tbf you normally attempt to justify your partisan view with some grain of reality. I am assuming this was meant as a comedy post.

    P.S. 28, 29 and 30 all on the same level of scandal points. Surely beer and curry runs in at number 1.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    The question of independence or staying in the Union isn't going away. Support for Scottish independence has dipped, though our poll finds a small lead for Yes: among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 53% say they'd vote Yes while 47% say they'd vote No

    I think I liked the Yougov one better!
    I wonder if support for indy is buoyant BECAUSE it is now highly unlikely to happen for a long time, if ever

    If people really wanted indy they would be voting SNP - as it is the only route to indy - the polls suggest they are not going to do that

    So now indy is more of a vague aspiration than a political choice, and it is far easier to vaguely aspire than it is to make a tough painful choice
    It's a mistake to think this. Not least because there are now multiple pro-indy parties. But also for the subtler points that even though indy or union is an important issue in Scotland, it's not the only one. People might be pro-indy or indy-curious (that's me) but vote for unionist parties because of other reasons. Ditto the other way around. Some people might look at England and Wales and think, well, I'm not in favour if indy or I'm not sure (me again) but they like the way the SNP is running stuff.

    Some of those stances might be baffling to some people, but these people exist.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,686

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Are we supposed to take this seriously as a measure of current scandals?
    Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
    Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
    No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
    No mention of Richard Sharp
    I can't even be bothered to go on
    I can't remember who it was, but an FS allegedly shook off his minders to attend a bunga, bunga party on an alleged KGB Officer's yacht, and it doesn't even get a mention.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,748
    edited May 2023
    ping said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    carnforth said:

    Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

    "Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."

    (This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)

    Without a battery factory all car manufacturing would be heading abroad.

    With 1 there is a chance our car manufacturing will continue and (might) even expand...
    We need more than 1 but it is a good start. Should help to keep some of Tata Steel open too.
    If they’re demanding to suck on the teat of the British Taxpayer, we should just nationalise them.

    Or make a strategic decision to exit mass car-making altogether. Let the Chinese/Americans/Europeans/Koreans//Japanese compete to export their EV’s and spend the half a billion on universities etc to bet on creating the next ARM of car manufacturing. Or whatever.

    Go up the value chain.

    I don’t blame the mates of Rishi’s in-laws for taking the piss, but that’s precisely what we’re letting them do.

    It’s in our national interest to tell Tata to go fuck themselves.

    Politely.
    It’s not just direct taxpayer money. It’s being subsidised via our energy bills, too.

    The poorest people in Britain - every time they top up their meter, money is now going to get siphoned off to subsidise these very wealthy foreigners.

    Obscene.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,215

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Are we supposed to take this seriously as a measure of current scandals?
    Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
    Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
    No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
    No mention of Richard Sharp
    I can't even be bothered to go on
    I can't remember who it was, but an FS allegedly shook off his minders to attend a bunga, bunga party on an alleged KGB Officer's yacht, and it doesn't even get a mention.
    It was Lord Carrington, wasn't it?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,089
    DavidL said:

    Ipsos poll on Scotland

    Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected

    On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats

    https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20

    The question of independence or staying in the Union isn't going away. Support for Scottish independence has dipped, though our poll finds a small lead for Yes: among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 53% say they'd vote Yes while 47% say they'd vote No

    I think I liked the Yougov one better!
    The trend is similar, the SNP down 10% on December, Labour and Conservatives each up 4%, and support for independence down by 3%.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,686
    edited May 2023
    Chris said:

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Are we supposed to take this seriously as a measure of current scandals?
    Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
    Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
    No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
    No mention of Richard Sharp
    I can't even be bothered to go on
    I can't remember who it was, but an FS allegedly shook off his minders to attend a bunga, bunga party on an alleged KGB Officer's yacht, and it doesn't even get a mention.
    It was Lord Carrington, wasn't it?
    Well he can't sue. Neither can Robin Cook. But I don't believe it was either.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    edited May 2023

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Are we supposed to take this seriously as a measure of current scandals?
    Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
    Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
    No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
    No mention of Richard Sharp
    I can't even be bothered to go on
    I can't remember who it was, but an FS allegedly shook off his minders to attend a bunga, bunga party on an alleged KGB Officer's yacht, and it doesn't even get a mention.
    Home Sec can't go to a remedial driving lesson - security risk!
    Foreign Sec staggering drunk around Aeroporto dell'Umbria after a bender at KGB-linked playboy's mansion castle - nothing to see here!
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,651
    ping said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    carnforth said:

    Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

    "Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."

    (This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)

    Without a battery factory all car manufacturing would be heading abroad.

    With 1 there is a chance our car manufacturing will continue and (might) even expand...
    We need more than 1 but it is a good start. Should help to keep some of Tata Steel open too.
    If they’re demanding to suck on the teat of the British Taxpayer, we should just nationalise them.

    Or make a strategic decision to exit mass car-making altogether. Let the Chinese/Americans/Europeans/Koreans//Japanese compete to export their EV’s and spend the half a billion on universities etc to bet on creating the next ARM of car manufacturing. Or whatever.

    Go up the value chain.

    I don’t blame the mates of Rishi’s in-laws for taking the piss, but that’s precisely what we’re letting them do.

    It’s in our national interest to tell Tata to go fuck themselves.

    Politely.
    Politely?

    You mean more like "say 'ta ta' to Tata"?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    I love that song, and haven't listened to it in decades.
    Thanks for that, and many happy returns to the kid.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,686
    Farooq said:

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Are we supposed to take this seriously as a measure of current scandals?
    Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
    Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
    No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
    No mention of Richard Sharp
    I can't even be bothered to go on
    I can't remember who it was, but an FS allegedly shook off his minders to attend a bunga, bunga party on an alleged KGB Officer's yacht, and it doesn't even get a mention.
    Home Sec can't go to a remedial driving lesson - security risk!
    Foreign Sec staggering drunk around Aeroporto dell'Umbria after a bender at KGB-linked playboy's mansion castle - nothing to see here!
    "Drunk"? I think you mean "tired and emotional".
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,651

    Chris said:

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Are we supposed to take this seriously as a measure of current scandals?
    Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
    Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
    No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
    No mention of Richard Sharp
    I can't even be bothered to go on
    I can't remember who it was, but an FS allegedly shook off his minders to attend a bunga, bunga party on an alleged KGB Officer's yacht, and it doesn't even get a mention.
    It was Lord Carrington, wasn't it?
    Well he can't sue. Neither can Robin Cook. But I don't believe it was either.
    The shocking lack of rights* for the dead will surely be the next issue on the woke agenda. Vitalism and vitalists are a scourge on our society.

    *can't sue, data protection rights lapse, can't exercise national data opt-outs
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138

    Farooq said:

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Are we supposed to take this seriously as a measure of current scandals?
    Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
    Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
    No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
    No mention of Richard Sharp
    I can't even be bothered to go on
    I can't remember who it was, but an FS allegedly shook off his minders to attend a bunga, bunga party on an alleged KGB Officer's yacht, and it doesn't even get a mention.
    Home Sec can't go to a remedial driving lesson - security risk!
    Foreign Sec staggering drunk around Aeroporto dell'Umbria after a bender at KGB-linked playboy's mansion castle - nothing to see here!
    "Drunk"? I think you mean "tired and emotional".
    Let's compromise. Tired, emotional, and shit-faced.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,686
    Selebian said:

    Chris said:

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Are we supposed to take this seriously as a measure of current scandals?
    Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
    Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
    No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
    No mention of Richard Sharp
    I can't even be bothered to go on
    I can't remember who it was, but an FS allegedly shook off his minders to attend a bunga, bunga party on an alleged KGB Officer's yacht, and it doesn't even get a mention.
    It was Lord Carrington, wasn't it?
    Well he can't sue. Neither can Robin Cook. But I don't believe it was either.
    The shocking lack of rights* for the dead will surely be the next issue on the woke agenda. Vitalism and vitalists are a scourge on our society.

    *can't sue, data protection rights lapse, can't exercise national data opt-outs
    Although in certain circumstances they have been known to exercise their postal votes.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,602
    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Great song. Do we always have to include that hangdog 'better in my day' bit at the end though? We're the same age (ish) but my son is double 17. That's 34 (for the non accountants). It's interestingly poised now, our relationship. 62 plays 34. He has a clear edge in almost everything.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535

    Haley is an excellent candidate. The problem is that Tim Scott has thrown his hat into the ring and that is already causing problems. It's splitting the vote in South Carolina and there's no guarantee that either Haley or Scott will win their home state.

    Long-time GOP aides and donors are either sitting this one out until the picture becomes a little 'clearer'. Rob Godfrey (who was Haley's deputy Chief of Staff) has already announced he's remaining neutral whilst others in the state GOP are picking sides. Scott has already picked off some pretty impressive names locally, including longstanding supporters of Haley.

    Haley and Scott will battle it out for the votes in and around Charleston and Mount Pleasant but Haley should win these. Haley should win in counties like Jasper, Beaufort and Bamberg (her home county). I can see Scott taking Horry and Georgetown counties (Myrtle Beach, Georgetown). The counties in and around Columbia (Lexington, Richland, Calhoun, Sumter) will be a battle. Haley has built up a lot of political capital so should win here but Scott is liked and is already showing some skill at picking up support. Counties like Florence, Marion or Darlington should go to Haley (similar to Bamberg). The real battleground will be in the Piedmont, up around the educated and liberal urban areas of Spartanburg and Greenville. I can see Scott taking this with his appeal to the university communities.

    Haley is highly regarded amongst the public in South Carolina. Anybody that can take on more established and 'old school' attitudes (as she did), surely deserves a chance at the White House.

    Good summary.
    I've a little money on Haley, as noted before. Decent long odds shout, but long odds for good reason.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,580
    edited May 2023
    "Great-grandmother, 95, dies after being tasered by police in Australian care home

    A 95-year-old great-grandmother with dementia who was tasered by police at a care home, has died. Outrage swept across Australia and beyond after 5ft 2in Clare Nowland was tasered by police at her care home in Cooma, New South Wales, last week. NSW Police confirmed Ms Nowland died "peacefully" in hospital just after 7pm on Wednesday, surrounded by family and loved ones. Senior Constable Kristian White, 33, has been charged with recklessly causing grievous bodily harm (GBH), assault occasioning actual bodily harm, and common assault."

    https://www.itv.com/news/2023-05-24/great-grandmother-95-tasered-by-police-in-care-home-dies
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,535
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Great song. Do we always have to include that hangdog 'better in my day' bit at the end though? We're the same age (ish) but my son is double 17. That's 34 (for the non accountants). It's interestingly poised now, our relationship. 62 plays 34. He has a clear edge in almost everything.
    Similar ages to me and daughter.
    I can still beat her at arm wrestling.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,748
    Selebian said:

    ping said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    carnforth said:

    Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

    "Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."

    (This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)

    Without a battery factory all car manufacturing would be heading abroad.

    With 1 there is a chance our car manufacturing will continue and (might) even expand...
    We need more than 1 but it is a good start. Should help to keep some of Tata Steel open too.
    If they’re demanding to suck on the teat of the British Taxpayer, we should just nationalise them.

    Or make a strategic decision to exit mass car-making altogether. Let the Chinese/Americans/Europeans/Koreans//Japanese compete to export their EV’s and spend the half a billion on universities etc to bet on creating the next ARM of car manufacturing. Or whatever.

    Go up the value chain.

    I don’t blame the mates of Rishi’s in-laws for taking the piss, but that’s precisely what we’re letting them do.

    It’s in our national interest to tell Tata to go fuck themselves.

    Politely.
    Politely?

    You mean more like "say 'ta ta' to Tata"?
    There, surely, must be growing resentment in the tories that the party is sleepwalking into becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of the BJP?

    Is nobody paying attention?

    Sunak in Modi’s pocket.

    The PM won’t even stand up for the national broadcaster as it’s censored by Modi’s mob.
  • Options
    NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 702
    edited May 2023
    Going back 17 years in PB, the discussion was around poll gloom for Gordon following an ICM poll and a betting punt at 18/1 for Alan Johnson to be the next PM after Blair.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/05/24/more-poll-gloom-for-gordon/
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    ping said:

    Selebian said:

    ping said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    carnforth said:

    Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

    "Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."

    (This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)

    Without a battery factory all car manufacturing would be heading abroad.

    With 1 there is a chance our car manufacturing will continue and (might) even expand...
    We need more than 1 but it is a good start. Should help to keep some of Tata Steel open too.
    If they’re demanding to suck on the teat of the British Taxpayer, we should just nationalise them.

    Or make a strategic decision to exit mass car-making altogether. Let the Chinese/Americans/Europeans/Koreans//Japanese compete to export their EV’s and spend the half a billion on universities etc to bet on creating the next ARM of car manufacturing. Or whatever.

    Go up the value chain.

    I don’t blame the mates of Rishi’s in-laws for taking the piss, but that’s precisely what we’re letting them do.

    It’s in our national interest to tell Tata to go fuck themselves.

    Politely.
    Politely?

    You mean more like "say 'ta ta' to Tata"?
    There, surely, must be growing resentment in the tories that the party is sleepwalking into becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of the BJP?

    Is nobody paying attention?

    Sunak in Modi’s pocket.

    The PM won’t even stand up for the national broadcaster as it’s censored by Modi’s mob.
    What's the censorship stuff you're talking about?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,580
    edited May 2023
    On the Janis Ian video, looked a bit like Steve Wozniak on guitar.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,748
    Farooq said:

    ping said:

    Selebian said:

    ping said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    carnforth said:

    Jaguar Land Rover to pick UK over Spain for giant car battery plant:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529

    "Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."

    (This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)

    Without a battery factory all car manufacturing would be heading abroad.

    With 1 there is a chance our car manufacturing will continue and (might) even expand...
    We need more than 1 but it is a good start. Should help to keep some of Tata Steel open too.
    If they’re demanding to suck on the teat of the British Taxpayer, we should just nationalise them.

    Or make a strategic decision to exit mass car-making altogether. Let the Chinese/Americans/Europeans/Koreans//Japanese compete to export their EV’s and spend the half a billion on universities etc to bet on creating the next ARM of car manufacturing. Or whatever.

    Go up the value chain.

    I don’t blame the mates of Rishi’s in-laws for taking the piss, but that’s precisely what we’re letting them do.

    It’s in our national interest to tell Tata to go fuck themselves.

    Politely.
    Politely?

    You mean more like "say 'ta ta' to Tata"?
    There, surely, must be growing resentment in the tories that the party is sleepwalking into becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of the BJP?

    Is nobody paying attention?

    Sunak in Modi’s pocket.

    The PM won’t even stand up for the national broadcaster as it’s censored by Modi’s mob.
    What's the censorship stuff you're talking about?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/indian-court-issues-bbc-with-summons-over-narendra-modi-documentary-say-reports
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,119
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Great song. Do we always have to include that hangdog 'better in my day' bit at the end though? We're the same age (ish) but my son is double 17. That's 34 (for the non accountants). It's interestingly poised now, our relationship. 62 plays 34. He has a clear edge in almost everything.
    Yes, unfortunately, we do have to include the "better in my day" bit because it is interesting. Because, for the first time in many decades, this tired old meme is provably true and says something important about politics

    Thus elevating the comment from "Oooh I have a family moment and here's a nice song" to something a shade more interesting that might make a Gazette piece so I'm trying it out from different angles
  • Options
    On topic, I get the impression some of the GOP candidates are standing for Vice President. If the field don't start turning serious fire on the frontrunners, it's really hard to see how they hope to break out from a low single digit field.

    What they may do is emerge with a level of national recognition and decent favourability ratings. That's not bad if you want to be VP (or Secretary of State or whatever) or perhaps if you want to have a second tilt in 2028. But I'm not seeing a sense in which they themselves see themselves as President in less than two years from now... and if they don't see it, it's hard to sell it convincingly to the public.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,215
    Chris said:

    Alun Michael talking about the Cardiff incident this morning on Radio Wales Breakfast, according to the BBC:
    "I was assured, and I am still assured, that the youths were not being chased by the police at the time of the road traffic accident ... There was no police vehicle in the road where the crash happened. There was a police van in another street and the police were called quickly to the accident and conducted CPR"

    So entirely consistent with the police van seen in the CCTV footage having just followed the boys west along Stanway Road, but having been prevented by a traffic barrier from following them into Snowden Road, where the crash occurred a little further to the west.

    A report just published by the Independent says:
    "The family friend said they believe the boys had got away from the police by riding up Stanwey Road, which is blocked off to traffic at one end, and had then ridden onto the adjacent Snowden Road where the crash occurred."
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cardiff-riots-crash-ely-news-today-b2344630.html
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,119
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    I love that song, and haven't listened to it in decades.
    Thanks for that, and many happy returns to the kid.
    You're welcome, and thankyou on behalf of the kiddo

    I have now listened to that Janis Ian live version of At 17 three times over and there is so much that is so well done. Her enunciation is perrrrrfect. She extends the vowels on Vaaaaalentnes and yoooouth in a way which fits the song superbly yet also adds to its plangent sadness in a way I cannot quite understand. That is great art and that is peak singer song-writing. She knows her own song so well, and it is so heartfelt, she can make something sublime out of each delicately voiced word, possibly without even quite knowing she is doing it
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,875
    I didn't realise Parliament isn't standing. So I guess that's why Boris is in Las Vegas, since he doesn't need to be representing his constituents or anything...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,027
    Farooq said:

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Hahaha, what a load of shit. Starmer kneeling is a bigger scandal than Owen Paterson? Get in the fucking bin, what a lunatic.
    Look it is more objective than their comments on trans issues.

    Take the win.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,602
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Great song. Do we always have to include that hangdog 'better in my day' bit at the end though? We're the same age (ish) but my son is double 17. That's 34 (for the non accountants). It's interestingly poised now, our relationship. 62 plays 34. He has a clear edge in almost everything.
    Yes, unfortunately, we do have to include the "better in my day" bit because it is interesting. Because, for the first time in many decades, this tired old meme is provably true and says something important about politics

    Thus elevating the comment from "Oooh I have a family moment and here's a nice song" to something a shade more interesting that might make a Gazette piece so I'm trying it out from different angles
    Hmm, ok. I don't agree with you though. I don't think this 'better in my day' (about music) is any different to the standard one about anything else.

    And there's nothing wrong with just sharing the family moment!
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,354
    ping said:

    There, surely, must be growing resentment in the tories that the party is sleepwalking into becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of the BJP?

    It's not just that, it's the fact than the Conservative Party is a wholly owned subsidiary of the rich, and the rich are no longer tied to a specific country. They are smart, egalitarian and (nobody's really pointed this out) no longer racist, but they are willing to use the UK as a resource to make themselves richer instead of a place to live. When wages rose due to people shortages their reaction was not to train youngsters but to import people from abroad. They use people as finite resources: peel off the rich ones, burn out the rest, import more when needed.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,214
    edited May 2023

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Hmm, tbf you normally attempt to justify your partisan view with some grain of reality. I am assuming this was meant as a comedy post.

    P.S. 28, 29 and 30 all on the same level of scandal points. Surely beer and curry runs in at number 1.
    It's truly laughable isn't it? Sue Gray counts as a 100? Starmer taking the knee = 67? Sadiq Khan 50 for ULEZ?

    Where btw are:

    Bridgen
    Benton
    Elphicke
    Rob Roberts
    Griffiths
    Warburton
    Imran Ahmed Khan

    in that list?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,602
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Great song. Do we always have to include that hangdog 'better in my day' bit at the end though? We're the same age (ish) but my son is double 17. That's 34 (for the non accountants). It's interestingly poised now, our relationship. 62 plays 34. He has a clear edge in almost everything.
    Similar ages to me and daughter.
    I can still beat her at arm wrestling.
    She's throwing it - :smile:
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580
    Coming soon, from your racist uncle to a GB news call-in show?

    I’m not quite sure where to start with this from Russian state TV’s Olesya Loseva…

    She says the UK's strong backing for Ukraine could be part a plot by Rishi Sunak to bankrupt the country in revenge for the British Empire’s exploitation of Indians


    https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1660950760031502337?cxt=HHwWgoC-kdH68IwuAAAA
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,686
    ...

    Talking of scandals…..

    Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.

    Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...

    As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.




    https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?

    Hmm, tbf you normally attempt to justify your partisan view with some grain of reality. I am assuming this was meant as a comedy post.

    P.S. 28, 29 and 30 all on the same level of scandal points. Surely beer and curry runs in at number 1.
    It's truly laughable isn't it? Sue Gray counts as a 100? Starmer taking the knee = 67? Sadiq Khan 50 for ULEZ?

    Where btw are:

    Bridgen
    Benton
    Elphicke
    Rob Roberts
    Griffiths
    Warburton
    Imran Ahmed Khan

    in that list?
    Wallace? The one who crashed his Mercedes in Llanblethian whilst dressed as a lady. Although fleeing the scene is more worrysome than his attire.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Great song. Do we always have to include that hangdog 'better in my day' bit at the end though? We're the same age (ish) but my son is double 17. That's 34 (for the non accountants). It's interestingly poised now, our relationship. 62 plays 34. He has a clear edge in almost everything.
    Yes, unfortunately, we do have to include the "better in my day" bit because it is interesting. Because, for the first time in many decades, this tired old meme is provably true and says something important about politics

    Thus elevating the comment from "Oooh I have a family moment and here's a nice song" to something a shade more interesting that might make a Gazette piece so I'm trying it out from different angles
    Hmm, ok. I don't agree with you though. I don't think this 'better in my day' (about music) is any different to the standard one about anything else.

    And there's nothing wrong with just sharing the family moment!
    In 30 years' time, Leon's daughter will be on here wishing her own son a happy 17th birthday and bemoaning that music isn't as good now as it was back in 2023
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,580
    edited May 2023
    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Great song. Do we always have to include that hangdog 'better in my day' bit at the end though? We're the same age (ish) but my son is double 17. That's 34 (for the non accountants). It's interestingly poised now, our relationship. 62 plays 34. He has a clear edge in almost everything.
    Yes, unfortunately, we do have to include the "better in my day" bit because it is interesting. Because, for the first time in many decades, this tired old meme is provably true and says something important about politics

    Thus elevating the comment from "Oooh I have a family moment and here's a nice song" to something a shade more interesting that might make a Gazette piece so I'm trying it out from different angles
    Hmm, ok. I don't agree with you though. I don't think this 'better in my day' (about music) is any different to the standard one about anything else.

    And there's nothing wrong with just sharing the family moment!
    In 30 years' time, Leon's daughter will be on here wishing her own son a happy 17th birthday and bemoaning that music isn't as good now as it was back in 2023
    Only if the AI running the country tells her it isn't as good.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,686
    edited May 2023
    CatMan said:

    I didn't realise Parliament isn't standing. So I guess that's why Boris is in Las Vegas, since he doesn't need to be representing his constituents or anything...

    What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,138
    edited May 2023
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    My older daughter turns 17 today. A complex age for any human. And I immediately thought of the Janis Ian song, and found this exquisite live rendition on The Old Grey Whistle Test

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0

    Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?

    Great song. Do we always have to include that hangdog 'better in my day' bit at the end though? We're the same age (ish) but my son is double 17. That's 34 (for the non accountants). It's interestingly poised now, our relationship. 62 plays 34. He has a clear edge in almost everything.
    Yes, unfortunately, we do have to include the "better in my day" bit because it is interesting. Because, for the first time in many decades, this tired old meme is provably true and says something important about politics

    Thus elevating the comment from "Oooh I have a family moment and here's a nice song" to something a shade more interesting that might make a Gazette piece so I'm trying it out from different angles
    Hmm, ok. I don't agree with you though. I don't think this 'better in my day' (about music) is any different to the standard one about anything else.

    And there's nothing wrong with just sharing the family moment!
    In 30 years' time, Leon's daughter will be on here wishing her own son a happy 17th birthday and bemoaning that music isn't as good now as it was back in 2023
    Only if the AI running the country tells her it isn't as good.
    [goes off to register the politicaibetting.com domain]
This discussion has been closed.