Why I’m betting on 40/1 Nikki Haley for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com
Why I’m betting on 40/1 Nikki Haley for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com
My one WH2024 Republican nomination bet so far is on the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. That is pretty impressive CV.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65698529
"Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s."
(This sounds a bit over the top to me, it's just running to stand still it seems, but what do I know?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMUz2TNMvL0
Just absolutely spine-tingling. Can you imagine being in that audience and hearing this LIVE for the first time. A cold clear copper bottomed masterpiece of a song. The voice, the guitar work, the immortal tune, the poignant lyrics, everything. Ah, fuck. What 'appened to music?
With 1 there is a chance our car manufacturing will continue and (might) even expand...
I just maintain that Rishi Sunak is rubbish at politics - and he is vastly overrated.
Edit pure anecdote but the period from 17 to about 23 is a bloody tough one for girls and not much better for their parents.
I confess that rendition made me tear up a bit, partly coz of the older daughter's birthday - so nearly an adult! - but also because it is so gorgeously sad: as a song
And yet.
As PM he seems to lack the right instincts, takes time to come to decisions (not always a bad trait) and doesn't always get it right. In the normal run of politics, with 4 or 5 years in the role, he may have matured. As it is its likely to be thanks but no thanks next spring, and off to make a shed more money for
RichiRishi.Shocked Emoji Face
Tho I do recommend watching that video. Utterly haunting
The RINOs believe she backed Trump too early (she was one of the first to do so)
The Trumpists believe she abandoned ship too early (she was one of the first to do so)
The fact that she is very talented, with an successful stint as an executive leader of a state and foreign policy experience (as well as being both a woman and a minority not that that should matter) doesn’t seem to be a factor that is considered
She is probably the best candidate from both parties.
It is one of the best descriptions of the joy and burden of being an artist I have ever heard.
Major Update to my Parliamentary Scandals Tracker after some good tips yesterday. Labour really punching above their weight here given they have 60% the number of MPs as the Conservatives and don't have to comply with the Ministerial Code.
Added Corbyn's ignominious ending to this plus some minor Labour MPs nobody has heard of...
As always, happy to refine the information if I'm getting this wrong.
https://twitter.com/eurollout/status/1661375156164472833?
Long-time GOP aides and donors are either sitting this one out until the picture becomes a little 'clearer'. Rob Godfrey (who was Haley's deputy Chief of Staff) has already announced he's remaining neutral whilst others in the state GOP are picking sides. Scott has already picked off some pretty impressive names locally, including longstanding supporters of Haley.
Haley and Scott will battle it out for the votes in and around Charleston and Mount Pleasant but Haley should win these. Haley should win in counties like Jasper, Beaufort and Bamberg (her home county). I can see Scott taking Horry and Georgetown counties (Myrtle Beach, Georgetown). The counties in and around Columbia (Lexington, Richland, Calhoun, Sumter) will be a battle. Haley has built up a lot of political capital so should win here but Scott is liked and is already showing some skill at picking up support. Counties like Florence, Marion or Darlington should go to Haley (similar to Bamberg). The real battleground will be in the Piedmont, up around the educated and liberal urban areas of Spartanburg and Greenville. I can see Scott taking this with his appeal to the university communities.
Haley is highly regarded amongst the public in South Carolina. Anybody that can take on more established and 'old school' attitudes (as she did), surely deserves a chance at the White House.
I'd vote for George Osborne.
It's a great way to operate as an executive director in a business - and so he is certainly not "crap" - but it's not enough to be a successful politician.
He needs to get strategic not just tactical. And that needs to have a strong retail offer.
- Diane Abbott has the whip suspended and this is labelled "barely anything"?
- ULEZ is a "scandal" rather than a policy disagreement?
- "kneeling for Marxist organisation"?
- Chris Pincher's sexual assault a fifth the "scandal rating" as Sue Grey's "revolving door" (whatever that is)
I have just a sneaking suspicion which side this chap's political bread is buttered. But I may be wrong
Trump also seems to be annoyed that she has the temerity to stand at all, though he may well prefer her to De Santis so coud still support her if for some reason he is rendered unable to compete.
I think either Haley or De Santis could potentially beat Biden. From a foreign policy view I suspect neither would change his position on either Russia or China, which is frankly what matters to the rest of the world, and they probably would continue the 'America first' trade policy of both Trump and Biden.
If Trump gets the nomination again it is very difficult to see how Biden doesn't win (short of expiring). The only way I could see a Trump win happening is if the Republicans (and media sympathetic to Trump) succeed in muddying the waters around the Hunter Biden story so as to big it up to be as big of a deal as the Trump's own machinations - think of the tremendous fuss in 2016 over Clinton's emails. So a Trump/Biden rematch would probably make US politics become that little bit more 'Brazillian' in flavour.
Or make a strategic decision to exit mass car-making altogether. Let the Chinese/Americans/Europeans/Koreans//Japanese compete to export their EV’s and spend the half a billion on universities etc to bet on creating the next ARM of car manufacturing. Or whatever.
Go up the value chain.
I don’t blame the mates of Rishi’s in-laws for taking the piss, but that’s precisely what we’re letting them do.
It’s in our national interest to tell Tata to go fuck themselves.
Politely.
I've not bothered this time, for the amounts and odds on offer, but the 40/1 tip or thereabouts looks a reasonable trader.
Not as poor for the SNP as maybe expected
On electoral calculus they would lose 5 seats, conservatives 3 seats and labour gain 8 seats
https://twitter.com/EmilyIpsosScot/status/1661327175025410048?s=20
The question of independence or staying in the Union isn't going away. Support for Scottish independence has dipped, though our poll finds a small lead for Yes: among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 53% say they'd vote Yes while 47% say they'd vote No
Bigger problems included being a fundamentally dishonest human being, believing rules were for other people, and demanding loyalty from others that he would never reciprocate (he was charming but anyone sensible knew he'd cheerfully stab them between the shoulder blades if it was expedient at any given moment).
Jared O'mara - who left parliament 3 and a half years ago
Sue Gray as the absolute *worst* when there's no there, there
No mention of PPE VIP channel for Tory donors
No mention of Richard Sharp
I can't even be bothered to go on
If people really wanted indy they would be voting SNP - as it is the only route to indy - the polls suggest they are not going to do that
So now indy is more of a vague aspiration than a political choice, and it is far easier to vaguely aspire than it is to make a tough painful choice
I'd point out it's in an Excel spreadsheet, so constitutes proper science as far as I am concerned.
P.S. 28, 29 and 30 all on the same level of scandal points. Surely beer and curry runs in at number 1.
The poorest people in Britain - every time they top up their meter, money is now going to get siphoned off to subsidise these very wealthy foreigners.
Obscene.
You mean more like "say 'ta ta' to Tata"?
Thanks for that, and many happy returns to the kid.
*can't sue, data protection rights lapse, can't exercise national data opt-outs
I've a little money on Haley, as noted before. Decent long odds shout, but long odds for good reason.
A 95-year-old great-grandmother with dementia who was tasered by police at a care home, has died. Outrage swept across Australia and beyond after 5ft 2in Clare Nowland was tasered by police at her care home in Cooma, New South Wales, last week. NSW Police confirmed Ms Nowland died "peacefully" in hospital just after 7pm on Wednesday, surrounded by family and loved ones. Senior Constable Kristian White, 33, has been charged with recklessly causing grievous bodily harm (GBH), assault occasioning actual bodily harm, and common assault."
https://www.itv.com/news/2023-05-24/great-grandmother-95-tasered-by-police-in-care-home-dies
I can still beat her at arm wrestling.
Is nobody paying attention?
Sunak in Modi’s pocket.
The PM won’t even stand up for the national broadcaster as it’s censored by Modi’s mob.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/05/24/more-poll-gloom-for-gordon/
Thus elevating the comment from "Oooh I have a family moment and here's a nice song" to something a shade more interesting that might make a Gazette piece so I'm trying it out from different angles
What they may do is emerge with a level of national recognition and decent favourability ratings. That's not bad if you want to be VP (or Secretary of State or whatever) or perhaps if you want to have a second tilt in 2028. But I'm not seeing a sense in which they themselves see themselves as President in less than two years from now... and if they don't see it, it's hard to sell it convincingly to the public.
"The family friend said they believe the boys had got away from the police by riding up Stanwey Road, which is blocked off to traffic at one end, and had then ridden onto the adjacent Snowden Road where the crash occurred."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cardiff-riots-crash-ely-news-today-b2344630.html
I have now listened to that Janis Ian live version of At 17 three times over and there is so much that is so well done. Her enunciation is perrrrrfect. She extends the vowels on Vaaaaalentnes and yoooouth in a way which fits the song superbly yet also adds to its plangent sadness in a way I cannot quite understand. That is great art and that is peak singer song-writing. She knows her own song so well, and it is so heartfelt, she can make something sublime out of each delicately voiced word, possibly without even quite knowing she is doing it
https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/05/24/how-grumblers-and-defectors-have-laid-a-trap-for-our-pollsters/
Take the win.
And there's nothing wrong with just sharing the family moment!
Where btw are:
Bridgen
Benton
Elphicke
Rob Roberts
Griffiths
Warburton
Imran Ahmed Khan
in that list?
I’m not quite sure where to start with this from Russian state TV’s Olesya Loseva…
She says the UK's strong backing for Ukraine could be part a plot by Rishi Sunak to bankrupt the country in revenge for the British Empire’s exploitation of Indians
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1660950760031502337?cxt=HHwWgoC-kdH68IwuAAAA
Amy Winehouse is much missed. She was the very last of the Golden Age. The Tintoretto of the Pop Music Renaissance
Witwold Pilecki, a Polish man who allowed himself to be captured by the Germans to get into Auschwitz. Once there he helped found the Auschwitz resistance and got out details of the atrocities performed within. After escaping from the camp, he fought in the Warsaw Uprising, was captured by the Germans, and was finally executed by the Communists in 1948.
https://twitter.com/AuschwitzMuseum/status/1661335852121718784
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witold_Pilecki
""When God created the human being, God had in mind that we should all be like Captain Witold Pilecki, of blessed memory."
"If it weren't for the bollards, the police could've rammed them themselves"
There are modifications available, interesting to see whether any are employed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khZ7e9ytm-g (original, 1969, isolated vocals)
Only other person who came close to that was P!nk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSNgR2bA_Io (cover, 2017, non-isolated vocals)
So much is happening right now in battery development they will have to be on their toes and make the right decisions - otherwise it could be the next Inmos.