There will always be a core of Trump supporters for whom he is only sinned against. One wonders how many of them were regular voters before, or in Trump found someone to vent their anger at democracy. They certainly seem to be over-represented in the Make Russia Great Again element. In place of Reagan Democrats, we now have Putin Republicans.
But it is getting ever harder to find Trump apologists. It might have had a mischievous fun to ra-ra-ra for him when he was sticking it to the Man. But he is the Man; the grifter who has worked the gullible in the room for his own advancement - and fuck America in the process. His every pronouncement now further lifts the veil on a mean spirited, thin-skinned, self-interested disaster for the USA. Gradually, they are seeing this.
If it weren't for the cult of celebrity that the US worships, he would be an embarrassed footnote in Presidential history. But he'll get there.
Not all Republicans are Putin Republicans. Former VP Pence for example takes a harder line on Putin even than President Biden does let alone Trump or DeSantis.
And they'd reject Trump's approach once he was in office again? Like hell they would. Damascene conversions all over the place, hallelujah.
Romney voted to impeach Trump remember. Pence was effectively pivotal to stopping the attempted Trump coup in January 2021 when he was still VP, arguably risking his life to do so as the mob stormed Congress
And has kowtowed to him ever since. Pence is, in any event, an irrelevance. A re-elected Trump would likely find sufficient enablers within the party. Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things.
There will always be a core of Trump supporters for whom he is only sinned against. One wonders how many of them were regular voters before, or in Trump found someone to vent their anger at democracy. They certainly seem to be over-represented in the Make Russia Great Again element. In place of Reagan Democrats, we now have Putin Republicans.
But it is getting ever harder to find Trump apologists. It might have had a mischievous fun to ra-ra-ra for him when he was sticking it to the Man. But he is the Man; the grifter who has worked the gullible in the room for his own advancement - and fuck America in the process. His every pronouncement now further lifts the veil on a mean spirited, thin-skinned, self-interested disaster for the USA. Gradually, they are seeing this.
If it weren't for the cult of celebrity that the US worships, he would be an embarrassed footnote in Presidential history. But he'll get there.
Not all Republicans are Putin Republicans. Former VP Pence for example takes a harder line on Putin even than President Biden does let alone Trump or DeSantis.
And they'd reject Trump's approach once he was in office again? Like hell they would. Damascene conversions all over the place, hallelujah.
Romney voted to impeach Trump remember. Pence was effectively pivotal to stopping the attempted Trump coup in January 2021 when he was still VP, arguably risking his life to do so as the mob stormed Congress
And has kowtowed to him ever since. Pence is, in any event, an irrelevance. A re-elected Trump would likely find sufficient enablers within the party. Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things.
No he hasn't.
If Pence wins the Iowa caucuses, full of his fellow evangelicals, he will himself be a contender for the Republican nomination.
If Trump wins the Presidential election then Americans themselves will have voted to put him back in the White House, even establishment Republicans would have to respect democracy then
Pentagon leaks linked to young gun enthusiast who worked at military base – report https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/13/pentagon-leaks-og-source-military-base-discord-report The man responsible for the leak of hundreds of classified Pentagon documents is reported to be a young, racist gun enthusiast who worked on a military base, and who was seeking to impress two dozen fellow members of an internet chat group... ...There is increasing evidence that the leak was not an intelligence operation by a state actor aiming to discredit the US, but more likely the consequence of a Pentagon policy of granting top secret security clearances to huge numbers of service members, civilians and contractors. The number of employees and contractors in the entire US government with top secret clearance is about 1.25 million.
OG appears to have acted as a leader on a server originally set up in 2020 on the Discord messaging platform by a small group of gun enthusiasts and gamers. The group went by several names, but most often it was known as Thug Shaker Central. Starting last year, OG is reported to have posted the documents on a channel on the server he named “Bear vs Pig”, a reference to the Ukraine war but also a viral video showing pigs fighting off a black bear.
Bit of a problem in a country where a large number of voters, encouraged by a recent president, actively support dictatorships like Russia.
When a million plus people know it, it doesn't even count as "Secret" let alone "Top Secret".
In the world of secrets, it seems fewer people in the US know that Prince Harry's marriage is over...
Has anyone told Prince Harry?
They will tell him - when the deal has been cut with Meghan....
Have they told Meghan, then?
Meghan has long known how this was going to go down.
Charles wants it sorted before the coronation. Hence the added pressure applied of saying that Harry will there. Alone.
At last. It's been radio silence from her for the last month.
Feinstein asks for Judiciary replacement after calls for resignation https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3947985-feinstein-asks-for-judiciary-replacement-after-calls-for-resignation/ Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) announced on Wednesday that her return to work in Washington has been delayed due to ongoing health complications and called on the Senate to appoint a temporary replacement for her on the Judiciary Committee. Her announcement came hours after Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) called for her to resign from the chamber. Feinstein has been sidelined since late February after being diagnosed with shingles. Her absence, coupled with that of Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), has left Democrats working at an even 49-49 at best during that time. However, Feinstein’s post on the Senate Judiciary Committee has meant that the panel has been unable to advance partisan nominees through to floor votes over that period...
There will always be a core of Trump supporters for whom he is only sinned against. One wonders how many of them were regular voters before, or in Trump found someone to vent their anger at democracy. They certainly seem to be over-represented in the Make Russia Great Again element. In place of Reagan Democrats, we now have Putin Republicans.
But it is getting ever harder to find Trump apologists. It might have had a mischievous fun to ra-ra-ra for him when he was sticking it to the Man. But he is the Man; the grifter who has worked the gullible in the room for his own advancement - and fuck America in the process. His every pronouncement now further lifts the veil on a mean spirited, thin-skinned, self-interested disaster for the USA. Gradually, they are seeing this.
If it weren't for the cult of celebrity that the US worships, he would be an embarrassed footnote in Presidential history. But he'll get there.
Not all Republicans are Putin Republicans. Former VP Pence for example takes a harder line on Putin even than President Biden does let alone Trump or DeSantis.
And they'd reject Trump's approach once he was in office again? Like hell they would. Damascene conversions all over the place, hallelujah.
Romney voted to impeach Trump remember. Pence was effectively pivotal to stopping the attempted Trump coup in January 2021 when he was still VP, arguably risking his life to do so as the mob stormed Congress
And has kowtowed to him ever since. Pence is, in any event, an irrelevance. A re-elected Trump would likely find sufficient enablers within the party. Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things.
No he hasn't.
If Pence wins the Iowa caucuses, full of his fellow evangelicals, he will himself be a contender for the Republican nomination.
If Trump wins the Presidential election then Americans themselves will have voted to put him back in the White House, even establishment Republicans would have to respect democracy then
Congress is a separate branch of government. "Respecting democracy" does not oblige it in any way to rubber stamp White House policies,
Pentagon leaks linked to young gun enthusiast who worked at military base – report https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/13/pentagon-leaks-og-source-military-base-discord-report The man responsible for the leak of hundreds of classified Pentagon documents is reported to be a young, racist gun enthusiast who worked on a military base, and who was seeking to impress two dozen fellow members of an internet chat group... ...There is increasing evidence that the leak was not an intelligence operation by a state actor aiming to discredit the US, but more likely the consequence of a Pentagon policy of granting top secret security clearances to huge numbers of service members, civilians and contractors. The number of employees and contractors in the entire US government with top secret clearance is about 1.25 million.
OG appears to have acted as a leader on a server originally set up in 2020 on the Discord messaging platform by a small group of gun enthusiasts and gamers. The group went by several names, but most often it was known as Thug Shaker Central. Starting last year, OG is reported to have posted the documents on a channel on the server he named “Bear vs Pig”, a reference to the Ukraine war but also a viral video showing pigs fighting off a black bear.
Bit of a problem in a country where a large number of voters, encouraged by a recent president, actively support dictatorships like Russia.
When a million plus people know it, it doesn't even count as "Secret" let alone "Top Secret".
In the world of secrets, it seems fewer people in the US know that Prince Harry's marriage is over...
Has anyone told Prince Harry?
They will tell him - when the deal has been cut with Meghan....
Have they told Meghan, then?
Meghan has long known how this was going to go down.
Charles wants it sorted before the coronation. Hence the added pressure applied of saying that Harry will there. Alone.
There will always be a core of Trump supporters for whom he is only sinned against. One wonders how many of them were regular voters before, or in Trump found someone to vent their anger at democracy. They certainly seem to be over-represented in the Make Russia Great Again element. In place of Reagan Democrats, we now have Putin Republicans.
But it is getting ever harder to find Trump apologists. It might have had a mischievous fun to ra-ra-ra for him when he was sticking it to the Man. But he is the Man; the grifter who has worked the gullible in the room for his own advancement - and fuck America in the process. His every pronouncement now further lifts the veil on a mean spirited, thin-skinned, self-interested disaster for the USA. Gradually, they are seeing this.
If it weren't for the cult of celebrity that the US worships, he would be an embarrassed footnote in Presidential history. But he'll get there.
Not all Republicans are Putin Republicans. Former VP Pence for example takes a harder line on Putin even than President Biden does let alone Trump or DeSantis.
And they'd reject Trump's approach once he was in office again? Like hell they would. Damascene conversions all over the place, hallelujah.
Romney voted to impeach Trump remember. Pence was effectively pivotal to stopping the attempted Trump coup in January 2021 when he was still VP, arguably risking his life to do so as the mob stormed Congress
And has kowtowed to him ever since. Pence is, in any event, an irrelevance. A re-elected Trump would likely find sufficient enablers within the party. Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things.
No he hasn't.
If Pence wins the Iowa caucuses, full of his fellow evangelicals, he will himself be a contender for the Republican nomination.
If Trump wins the Presidential election then Americans themselves will have voted to put him back in the White House, even establishment Republicans would have to respect democracy then
Congress is a separate branch of government. "Respecting democracy" does not oblige it in any way to rubber stamp White House policies,
No but a Congress controlled by the same party as the elected President almost always supports most of the President's policies
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
There will always be a core of Trump supporters for whom he is only sinned against. One wonders how many of them were regular voters before, or in Trump found someone to vent their anger at democracy. They certainly seem to be over-represented in the Make Russia Great Again element. In place of Reagan Democrats, we now have Putin Republicans.
But it is getting ever harder to find Trump apologists. It might have had a mischievous fun to ra-ra-ra for him when he was sticking it to the Man. But he is the Man; the grifter who has worked the gullible in the room for his own advancement - and fuck America in the process. His every pronouncement now further lifts the veil on a mean spirited, thin-skinned, self-interested disaster for the USA. Gradually, they are seeing this.
If it weren't for the cult of celebrity that the US worships, he would be an embarrassed footnote in Presidential history. But he'll get there.
Not all Republicans are Putin Republicans. Former VP Pence for example takes a harder line on Putin even than President Biden does let alone Trump or DeSantis.
And they'd reject Trump's approach once he was in office again? Like hell they would. Damascene conversions all over the place, hallelujah.
Romney voted to impeach Trump remember. Pence was effectively pivotal to stopping the attempted Trump coup in January 2021 when he was still VP, arguably risking his life to do so as the mob stormed Congress
And has kowtowed to him ever since. Pence is, in any event, an irrelevance. A re-elected Trump would likely find sufficient enablers within the party. Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things.
No he hasn't.
If Pence wins the Iowa caucuses, full of his fellow evangelicals, he will himself be a contender for the Republican nomination.
If Trump wins the Presidential election then Americans themselves will have voted to put him back in the White House, even establishment Republicans would have to respect democracy then
Congress is a separate branch of government. "Respecting democracy" does not oblige it in any way to rubber stamp White House policies,
No but a Congress controlled by the same party as the elected President almost always supports most of the President's policies
..A re-elected Trump would likely find sufficient enablers within the party. Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things...
There will always be a core of Trump supporters for whom he is only sinned against. One wonders how many of them were regular voters before, or in Trump found someone to vent their anger at democracy. They certainly seem to be over-represented in the Make Russia Great Again element. In place of Reagan Democrats, we now have Putin Republicans.
But it is getting ever harder to find Trump apologists. It might have had a mischievous fun to ra-ra-ra for him when he was sticking it to the Man. But he is the Man; the grifter who has worked the gullible in the room for his own advancement - and fuck America in the process. His every pronouncement now further lifts the veil on a mean spirited, thin-skinned, self-interested disaster for the USA. Gradually, they are seeing this.
If it weren't for the cult of celebrity that the US worships, he would be an embarrassed footnote in Presidential history. But he'll get there.
Not all Republicans are Putin Republicans. Former VP Pence for example takes a harder line on Putin even than President Biden does let alone Trump or DeSantis.
And they'd reject Trump's approach once he was in office again? Like hell they would. Damascene conversions all over the place, hallelujah.
Romney voted to impeach Trump remember. Pence was effectively pivotal to stopping the attempted Trump coup in January 2021 when he was still VP, arguably risking his life to do so as the mob stormed Congress
And has kowtowed to him ever since. Pence is, in any event, an irrelevance. A re-elected Trump would likely find sufficient enablers within the party. Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things.
No he hasn't.
If Pence wins the Iowa caucuses, full of his fellow evangelicals, he will himself be a contender for the Republican nomination.
If Trump wins the Presidential election then Americans themselves will have voted to put him back in the White House, even establishment Republicans would have to respect democracy then
Congress is a separate branch of government. "Respecting democracy" does not oblige it in any way to rubber stamp White House policies,
Iowa is all about retail politics, hence Huckabee and Carter for instance came from nowhere to win it after visiting frequently and winning over evangelicals.
Note Pence has a 66% favourable rating with Iowa Republicans compared to say only 53% for Haley
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
It is rather patchy though. February would have been negative but for the rise in construction, which the ONS put down to the dry and mild February allowing bounceback from a drop in Jan. The foul weather in March means that unlikely to occur this month.
Overall I stick by my prediction on New Years Day of things not being economically as bad as predicted, but not being great either.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
That might be what he’s trying for, but what comes across is Sinophilia, as Xi started his military exercises off the coast of Taiwan before the wheels were up on Macron’s plane.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
Hmm. Not sure that Hunt is well advised to be publicly wetting himself over 0.1%. That sort of figure can be easily wiped out with a single revision later down the line.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
It may well be misjudged, but I think what Macron is aiming at is to be a bit more welcoming to China, as a way of seperating it from Russia.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
That might be what he’s trying for, but what comes across is Sinophilia, as Xi started his military exercises off the coast of Taiwan before the wheels were up on Macron’s plane.
De Gaulle had similar problems with his version - every time he said something, the next USSR move was read (by some people) as a response to his go ahead.
Biden very much looking like a president on course for re-election over the last few days. Yes, he’s on safe ground, it’s a US politician in Ireland, but he’s displaying a certain comfort and sureness that suggests he’s ready for the run.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
It may well be misjudged, but I think what Macron is aiming at is to be a bit more welcoming to China, as a way of seperating it from Russia.
Well both Xi Jinping & Macron want peace in eastern Europe..
Biden very much looking like a president on course for re-election over the last few days. Yes, he’s on safe ground, it’s a US politician in Ireland, but he’s displaying a certain comfort and sureness that suggests he’s ready for the run.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
I’m sure it’s nothing to do with the nationality of l’économiste en chef of le FMI, of course.
Biden very much looking like a president on course for re-election over the last few days. Yes, he’s on safe ground, it’s a US politician in Ireland, but he’s displaying a certain comfort and sureness that suggests he’s ready for the run.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
It may well be misjudged, but I think what Macron is aiming at is to be a bit more welcoming to China, as a way of seperating it from Russia.
Well both Xi Jinping & Macron want peace in eastern Europe..
Don't we all?
It is just the terms of that peace that are in dispute.
Pentagon leaks linked to young gun enthusiast who worked at military base – report https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/13/pentagon-leaks-og-source-military-base-discord-report The man responsible for the leak of hundreds of classified Pentagon documents is reported to be a young, racist gun enthusiast who worked on a military base, and who was seeking to impress two dozen fellow members of an internet chat group... ...There is increasing evidence that the leak was not an intelligence operation by a state actor aiming to discredit the US, but more likely the consequence of a Pentagon policy of granting top secret security clearances to huge numbers of service members, civilians and contractors. The number of employees and contractors in the entire US government with top secret clearance is about 1.25 million.
OG appears to have acted as a leader on a server originally set up in 2020 on the Discord messaging platform by a small group of gun enthusiasts and gamers. The group went by several names, but most often it was known as Thug Shaker Central. Starting last year, OG is reported to have posted the documents on a channel on the server he named “Bear vs Pig”, a reference to the Ukraine war but also a viral video showing pigs fighting off a black bear.
Bit of a problem in a country where a large number of voters, encouraged by a recent president, actively support dictatorships like Russia.
When a million plus people know it, it doesn't even count as "Secret" let alone "Top Secret".
In the world of secrets, it seems fewer people in the US know that Prince Harry's marriage is over...
That's a misleading bit of reporting.
The level of secrecy determines the prodedures required to protect the information. So 1.25 million people deal with information that has top secret security requirements, that does not mean that they have a need to know something.
The number of people who have access to a particular bit of top secret information is far smaller than 1.25 million people. The are thousands of subdivisions of secret information into compartments and programmes across the US government, intelligence community, and military. You also have dissemination controls, which deal with handling and channels which information can be passed through. Having Top Secret clearance on its own shouldn't give a person any access to Top Secret information, that simply says they can be trusted to handle such information, the Need is a whole different issue and very complex.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
Or, to put it another way, being equidistant between decent, if flawed, countries and aggressive psychopathic dictators.
There will always be a core of Trump supporters for whom he is only sinned against. One wonders how many of them were regular voters before, or in Trump found someone to vent their anger at democracy. They certainly seem to be over-represented in the Make Russia Great Again element. In place of Reagan Democrats, we now have Putin Republicans.
But it is getting ever harder to find Trump apologists. It might have had a mischievous fun to ra-ra-ra for him when he was sticking it to the Man. But he is the Man; the grifter who has worked the gullible in the room for his own advancement - and fuck America in the process. His every pronouncement now further lifts the veil on a mean spirited, thin-skinned, self-interested disaster for the USA. Gradually, they are seeing this.
If it weren't for the cult of celebrity that the US worships, he would be an embarrassed footnote in Presidential history. But he'll get there.
Not all Republicans are Putin Republicans. Former VP Pence for example takes a harder line on Putin even than President Biden does let alone Trump or DeSantis.
And they'd reject Trump's approach once he was in office again? Like hell they would. Damascene conversions all over the place, hallelujah.
Romney voted to impeach Trump remember. Pence was effectively pivotal to stopping the attempted Trump coup in January 2021 when he was still VP, arguably risking his life to do so as the mob stormed Congress
And has kowtowed to him ever since. Pence is, in any event, an irrelevance. A re-elected Trump would likely find sufficient enablers within the party. Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things.
No he hasn't.
If Pence wins the Iowa caucuses, full of his fellow evangelicals, he will himself be a contender for the Republican nomination.
If Trump wins the Presidential election then Americans themselves will have voted to put him back in the White House, even establishment Republicans would have to respect democracy then
Congress is a separate branch of government. "Respecting democracy" does not oblige it in any way to rubber stamp White House policies,
Iowa is all about retail politics, hence Huckabee and Carter for instance came from nowhere to win it after visiting frequently and winning over evangelicals.
Note Pence has a 66% favourable rating with Iowa Republicans compared to say only 53% for Haley
Biden very much looking like a president on course for re-election over the last few days. Yes, he’s on safe ground, it’s a US politician in Ireland, but he’s displaying a certain comfort and sureness that suggests he’s ready for the run.
Would have been better to keep the visit until next year if that was the case.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
Hmm. Not sure that Hunt is well advised to be publicly wetting himself over 0.1%. That sort of figure can be easily wiped out with a single revision later down the line.
This is true, but historically GDP has been revised up much more often than down, has it not?
And politically, only the first estimate really counts because it's the one the news notices.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
It may well be misjudged, but I think what Macron is aiming at is to be a bit more welcoming to China, as a way of seperating it from Russia.
Well both Xi Jinping & Macron want peace in eastern Europe..
Don't we all?
It is just the terms of that peace that are in dispute.
Absolutely. Which is why discussing the details of the Ukraine/Republic of China border are so important.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
Hmm. Not sure that Hunt is well advised to be publicly wetting himself over 0.1%. That sort of figure can be easily wiped out with a single revision later down the line.
This is true, but historically GDP has been revised up much more often than down, has it not?
And politically, only the first estimate really counts because it's the one the news notices.
It is a shame that few journalists feel any obligation to look back to a story about a forecast and report what actually happened.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
Hmm. Not sure that Hunt is well advised to be publicly wetting himself over 0.1%. That sort of figure can be easily wiped out with a single revision later down the line.
This is true, but historically GDP has been revised up much more often than down, has it not?
And politically, only the first estimate really counts because it's the one the news notices.
The catch there is that a lot of people don't even notice the news these days.
And the bottom line hasn't changed. For the UK as a whole, it's going to feel more like a recession than a boom. And for quite a lot of people, it's going to be an actual recession.
Remember the lady in one of the 2016 debates? "I don't care about your GDP, it's not my GDP" or words to that effect.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
Hmm. Not sure that Hunt is well advised to be publicly wetting himself over 0.1%. That sort of figure can be easily wiped out with a single revision later down the line.
This is true, but historically GDP has been revised up much more often than down, has it not?
And politically, only the first estimate really counts because it's the one the news notices.
It is a shame that few journalists feel any obligation to look back to a story about a forecast and report what actually happened.
I toy with the idea that a modern internet news organisation would be more like a curated wiki (only updated by the staff) - stories would not be a single point in time, but a living, changing thing. Complete with a mechanism to easily visualise the changes over time.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
It may well be misjudged, but I think what Macron is aiming at is to be a bit more welcoming to China, as a way of seperating it from Russia.
Well both Xi Jinping & Macron want peace in eastern Europe..
Don't we all?
It is just the terms of that peace that are in dispute.
Absolutely. Which is why discussing the details of the Ukraine/Republic of China border are so important.
There's been three attempts and three failures at creating Ukrainian enclaves inside the territory of what is now the RF. Siriy Klin Grey Ukraine around Omsk. Zhovty Klin/Yellow Ukraine in Povolzhye and Zeleniy Klin/Green Ukraine in Dal'niy Vostok. It's not a project with an auspicious track record.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
It may well be misjudged, but I think what Macron is aiming at is to be a bit more welcoming to China, as a way of seperating it from Russia.
Well both Xi Jinping & Macron want peace in eastern Europe..
Don't we all?
It is just the terms of that peace that are in dispute.
Absolutely. Which is why discussing the details of the Ukraine/Republic of China border are so important.
There's been three attempts and three failures at creating Ukrainian enclaves inside the territory of what is now the RF. Siriy Klin Grey Ukraine around Omsk. Zhovty Klin/Yellow Ukraine in Povolzhye and Zeleniy Klin/Green Ukraine in Daln'iy Vostok. It's not a project with an auspicious track record.
Demented irredentism doesn't have a good track record, full stop.
Hmm, lots of upwards revisions in the GDP data this morning. Think that puts us above Feb 2020.
For the month it looks like the public sector strikes dragged growth down by 0.1-0.2% but there will be an element of catch up in March so we're on course for about 0.6% growth in Q1. Far from the doom and gloom we've been listening to from pundits and international think tanks I'd rate 0.6% growth in Q1 as fairly solid.
So, can it be, that the IMF were … wrong?
In fact, we are now above Feb. 2020, indeed we went above Feb .2020 in May of last year.
No one should take much notice of initial GDP estimates, for it is a law as immutable as that of the Medes and the Persians, that GDP gets revised upwards.
Its remarkable how almost no one has picked up that story given that it has been a (non-existent) stick with which to beat ourselves for so long.
It isn't amazing really. It's not a doom and gloom story so expect it to be ignored.
Many years ago, I recall Norman Tebbit tormenting Brian Redhead about unemployment figures on Radio 4.
“You always used to ask me about unemployment when I came on the program. But you’ve stopped. Why is that?”
He basically refused to start the interview until Brian asked the question about unemployment. Which had been going down for 24 months straight, or something like that.
Yet our current Conservatives seem uninterested that we now have full employment.
Theory 1 - because we had high unemployment during most of the Thatcher era Conservatives now think that high unemployment is a good thing.
Theory 2 - because Conservative voters tend to be oldies they're not interested in employment, even worse full employment leads to higher pay and so higher prices for oldies.
If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
Why won't it be repeated if it is defeated? For whatever value of 'defeated' you care to adopt.
It makes it considerably less likely. If this one is seen to have achieved positive results, as with 2014, it makes another one easier. That's not a complicated point.
There isn't some rational cost/benefit analysis to the SMO. See also Brexit.
Hmm, lots of upwards revisions in the GDP data this morning. Think that puts us above Feb 2020.
For the month it looks like the public sector strikes dragged growth down by 0.1-0.2% but there will be an element of catch up in March so we're on course for about 0.6% growth in Q1. Far from the doom and gloom we've been listening to from pundits and international think tanks I'd rate 0.6% growth in Q1 as fairly solid.
So, can it be, that the IMF were … wrong?
In fact, we are now above Feb. 2020, indeed we went above Feb .2020 in May of last year.
No one should take much notice of initial GDP estimates, for it is a law as immutable as that of the Medes and the Persians, that GDP gets revised upwards.
Its remarkable how almost no one has picked up that story given that it has been a (non-existent) stick with which to beat ourselves for so long.
It isn't amazing really. It's not a doom and gloom story so expect it to be ignored.
Many years ago, I recall Norman Tebbit tormenting Brian Redhead about unemployment figures on Radio 4.
“You always used to ask me about unemployment when I came on the program. But you’ve stopped. Why is that?”
He basically refused to start the interview until Brian asked the question about unemployment. Which had been going down for 24 months straight, or something like that.
Yet our current Conservatives seem uninterested that we now have full employment.
Theory 1 - because we had high unemployment during most of the Thatcher era Conservatives now think that high unemployment is a good thing.
Theory 2 - because Conservative voters tend to be oldies they're not interested in employment, even worse full employment leads to higher pay and so higher prices for oldies.
Or, simply, because no one is complaining about unemployment, and it hasn't been a political topic for years now, it has dropped off the political radar.
The only employment related issue in recent political discourse are the numbers not seeking work.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
Hmm. Not sure that Hunt is well advised to be publicly wetting himself over 0.1%. That sort of figure can be easily wiped out with a single revision later down the line.
This is true, but historically GDP has been revised up much more often than down, has it not?
And politically, only the first estimate really counts because it's the one the news notices.
It is a shame that few journalists feel any obligation to look back to a story about a forecast and report what actually happened.
Including the nonsense headlines in the Express and the Star about the weather.
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
That might be what he’s trying for, but what comes across is Sinophilia, as Xi started his military exercises off the coast of Taiwan before the wheels were up on Macron’s plane.
De Gaulle had similar problems with his version - every time he said something, the next USSR move was read (by some people) as a response to his go ahead.
When De Gaulle was President, Ukraine was part of the USSR and Poland and half of Germany were in their bloc. It's a very different world today.
If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
Why won't it be repeated if it is defeated? For whatever value of 'defeated' you care to adopt.
It makes it considerably less likely. If this one is seen to have achieved positive results, as with 2014, it makes another one easier. That's not a complicated point.
There isn't some rational cost/benefit analysis to the SMO. See also Brexit.
Okay, with your supposedly brilliant understanding of the Russian psyche, what is your preferred outcome to all of this?
Hmm, lots of upwards revisions in the GDP data this morning. Think that puts us above Feb 2020.
For the month it looks like the public sector strikes dragged growth down by 0.1-0.2% but there will be an element of catch up in March so we're on course for about 0.6% growth in Q1. Far from the doom and gloom we've been listening to from pundits and international think tanks I'd rate 0.6% growth in Q1 as fairly solid.
My much ridiculed anecdotes seem to have been correct in predicting economic performance then.
But, but, but …… PB Tories are always saying that the public sector is a drain on the economy, not a agent of growth!
And February proves it. But for their reluctance to turn up for work there would have been solid growth in February. 😉
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
True to some extent, even Blair didn’t kick out Tony Benn or Corbyn like Sir Keir has given Jezza the boot.
Albeit Starmer is correct it is swing voters not the Conservative or Labour core vote that win elections
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
Those "bumper receipts" are what is otherwise known as "fiscal drag", that is higher taxes and therefore lower spending by workers.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
True to some extent, even Blair didn’t kick out Tony Benn or Corbyn like Sir Keir has given Jezza the boot.
Albeit Starmer is correct it is swing voters not the Conservative or Labour core vote that win elections
I think it's being able to attract swing votes whilst retaining your core vote that wins elections.
The latter is the issue for SKS imo and when push comes to shove the former too 🙄
Macron taking the Gaullist line of neutrality between Anglo-Saxon world and Communist China there, no doubt also still annoyed that AuUKUS left out France
His vocal support for a one China policy is going to make the French unwelcome pretty much everywhere in the Pacific other than China and North Korea.
As soon as his plane took off the Chinese military started a mock blockade of Taiwan,
He;s getting criticised at home for giving them the green light to do so. Unfair as the Chinese had planned to do it anyway but he left himself open to the accusation.
Macron may, or may not have a point when it comes to strategically defining Europe separately from the US, but the timing of his intervention is highly damaging to the interests of both.
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/.. https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1646399926786482177
France will not benefit from a compromise which sees Russia take sufficient Ukrainian territory to retrench for a renewed effort in a few years time. If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
He;s doing a failed version of creating a foreign distraction to hide problems at home.
Running though Figaro this morning its strikes; strikes and transport blockages.
I remain bemused that none of this seems to make its way in to the IMF forecast for France
He’s trying for a variant of De Gaulle’s policy of being semi detached from NATO vs the USSR. But with China.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
Or, to put it another way, being equidistant between decent, if flawed, countries and aggressive psychopathic dictators.
Though with the return of Trump and his little imps, being equidistant may not be such bad policy.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
True to some extent, even Blair didn’t kick out Tony Benn or Corbyn like Sir Keir has given Jezza the boot.
Albeit Starmer is correct it is swing voters not the Conservative or Labour core vote that win elections
I think it's being able to attract swing votes whilst retaining your core vote that wins elections.
The latter is the issue for SKS imo and when push comes to shove the former too 🙄
That is also true, hence Blair did better in 1997 than 2005 when some of his core vote went LD and Respect and hence Boris did better in 2019 than Cameron did in 2010 or 2015 when some of his core vote went UKIP
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
Hmm. Not sure that Hunt is well advised to be publicly wetting himself over 0.1%. That sort of figure can be easily wiped out with a single revision later down the line.
It's the big revisions through last year to January that give grounds for optimism. As Max says, growth for the first quarter of this year (unless March is very bad) should come in at 0.5- 0.6%.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
They weren't lifelong worshippers. They were entryists who had spent 20 years in the SWP et al attacking Labour at every opportunity.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
They weren't lifelong worshippers. They were entryists who had spent 20 years in the SWP et al attacking Labour at every opportunity.
My own pet theory is that the existence of unemployment as an issue is so baked into the psyche of politicians and policy makers that they can't think outside it. After all. Every one of them grew up with it as a massive issue. Hence this obvious fallacy. If everyone gets a better job, who does the jobs at minimum wage? Often for the government. On fixed hours? Where a fight against a pay rise is being waged? Jobs which can't currently be filled? Answer. The unemployed, natch.
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
They still don't get that they, themselves, are the biggest employer in the country. If an extra 5% in lower paid jobs leave to search for better paid ones, then either public services will deteriorate even faster or the government will have to increase public sector pay much faster than they have been willing to in order to keep up.
Left hand please be at least vaguely aware of right hand, even if you don't speak to each other.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
They weren't lifelong worshippers. They were entryists who had spent 20 years in the SWP et al attacking Labour at every opportunity.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
Those "bumper receipts" are what is otherwise known as "fiscal drag", that is higher taxes and therefore lower spending by workers.
They better not teach fiscal drag to anyone under 12, or the anti woke will get their pitchforks out.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
They weren't lifelong worshippers. They were entryists who had spent 20 years in the SWP et al attacking Labour at every opportunity.
What like Corbyn?
No, like the crowd who rocked up at both my current and former CLP and have now quietly slunk away again.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
They weren't lifelong worshippers. They were entryists who had spent 20 years in the SWP et al attacking Labour at every opportunity.
What like Corbyn?
Which Labour MP has voted against a Labour government the most times in history?
They still don't get that they, themselves, are the biggest employer in the country. If an extra 5% in lower paid jobs leave to search for better paid ones, then either public services will deteriorate even faster or the government will have to increase public sector pay much faster than they have been willing to in order to keep up.
Left hand please be at least vaguely aware of right hand, even if you don't speak to each other.
They also don't seem to understand that many of the jobs they employ people to do simply don't have the option of "extra hours". If you're on the government payroll, with fixed, contracted hours and pay, good luck negotiating overtime. Not to mention. Teaching assistants have great difficulty working when schools are closed.
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
RFK has no chance v President Biden, he is polling little better than former Massachussetts Governor William Weld did v Trump for the 2020 GOP nomination.
He is not going to emulate the success his father had v LBJ in 1968 which forced the President from the race before his tragic assassination
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
SKS said the other day Labour has always been a broad church and is best when it is.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers. Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
They weren't lifelong worshippers. They were entryists who had spent 20 years in the SWP et al attacking Labour at every opportunity.
What like Corbyn?
No, like the crowd who rocked up at both my current and former CLP and have now quietly slunk away again.
They still don't get that they, themselves, are the biggest employer in the country. If an extra 5% in lower paid jobs leave to search for better paid ones, then either public services will deteriorate even faster or the government will have to increase public sector pay much faster than they have been willing to in order to keep up.
Left hand please be at least vaguely aware of right hand, even if you don't speak to each other.
They also don't seem to understand that many of the jobs they employ people to do simply don't have the option of "extra hours". If you're on the government payroll, with fixed, contracted hours and pay, good luck negotiating overtime. Not to mention. Teaching assistants have great difficulty working when schools are closed.
Just use your local party contacts for a consulting gig and a non exec gig on the side, job done, not to mention the lunches and expenses.......
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
That Hunter Biden is an unpleasant parasite who has used his father's position to rake in money looks pretty certain.
But such family enrichment is a common theme in American politics (not to mention in other countries).
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
here you are, banging on about hunter biden again, it must be a day that ends in y
King Charles could be the last monarch on a banknote as cash loses its crown
Digital payments dominate amid increasing obsolescence of cash
Halfway through 2024, King Charles III will become only the second monarch to see his portrait launched into circulation on British banknotes. It is feasible that his likeness will be the last one on a banknote that is ever actually used.
The use of cash is collapsing around the world. De La Rue, a firm which designs a third of the world’s banknotes, says global demand for physical currency has hit a 20-year low. Card, mobile and digital wallet payments are replacing traditional payment methods at a swift rate.
Globally, between 2018 and 2022, the value of global cash transactions fell from $11.6 trillion (£9.3 trillion) to $7.7 trillion, a drop of a third, according to financial services firm FIS.
Last year, cash accounted for just 16pc of transactions worldwide. By 2026, global cash transactions will be worth only $6 trillion, making up just one in 10 payments, FIS has forecast.
By this measure, the UK is ahead of the curve: last year, cash already accounted for only a tenth of point of sale transactions.
In the 10 years to 2031, cash payments will slump by another 52pc, according to UK Finance, the lender trade body. Debit card payments, already the dominant method for settling up, will have surged by nearly a quarter in that time.
“We are going to have to start preparing for a very, very low cash society,” says John Howells, chief executive of Link, the UK’s cash machine network.
“Cash will be a store for safety, but as a means of payment it is already dropping fast, and that is going to continue. I think in 15 or 20 years’ time that could have virtually disappeared.”
Biden very much looking like a president on course for re-election over the last few days. Yes, he’s on safe ground, it’s a US politician in Ireland, but he’s displaying a certain comfort and sureness that suggests he’s ready for the run.
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
here you are, banging on about hunter biden again, it must be a day that ends in y
Have I banged on about him before? Remind me.
Anyway, I think it's far more applicable to say for this site, it's a day that ends in y, let's talk (again) about Donald Trump and what he has done wrong - as if we didn't know already.
King Charles could be the last monarch on a banknote as cash loses its crown
Digital payments dominate amid increasing obsolescence of cash
Halfway through 2024, King Charles III will become only the second monarch to see his portrait launched into circulation on British banknotes. It is feasible that his likeness will be the last one on a banknote that is ever actually used.
The use of cash is collapsing around the world. De La Rue, a firm which designs a third of the world’s banknotes, says global demand for physical currency has hit a 20-year low. Card, mobile and digital wallet payments are replacing traditional payment methods at a swift rate.
Globally, between 2018 and 2022, the value of global cash transactions fell from $11.6 trillion (£9.3 trillion) to $7.7 trillion, a drop of a third, according to financial services firm FIS.
Last year, cash accounted for just 16pc of transactions worldwide. By 2026, global cash transactions will be worth only $6 trillion, making up just one in 10 payments, FIS has forecast.
By this measure, the UK is ahead of the curve: last year, cash already accounted for only a tenth of point of sale transactions.
In the 10 years to 2031, cash payments will slump by another 52pc, according to UK Finance, the lender trade body. Debit card payments, already the dominant method for settling up, will have surged by nearly a quarter in that time.
“We are going to have to start preparing for a very, very low cash society,” says John Howells, chief executive of Link, the UK’s cash machine network.
“Cash will be a store for safety, but as a means of payment it is already dropping fast, and that is going to continue. I think in 15 or 20 years’ time that could have virtually disappeared.”
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
That Hunter Biden is an unpleasant parasite who has used his father's position to rake in money looks pretty certain.
But such family enrichment is a common theme in American politics (not to mention in other countries).
The Trump family certainly did similarly.
No doubt but that is reflected in the betting etc.
We don't have that for Biden. And it's not just HB made money off JB's position, it's the allegations JB was being funnelled cash. Nobody cares about Hunter. They do if JB was indeed taking cash from someone.
If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
Why won't it be repeated if it is defeated? For whatever value of 'defeated' you care to adopt.
It makes it considerably less likely. If this one is seen to have achieved positive results, as with 2014, it makes another one easier. That's not a complicated point.
There isn't some rational cost/benefit analysis to the SMO. See also Brexit.
Okay, with your supposedly brilliant understanding of the Russian psyche, what is your preferred outcome to all of this?
What the fuck does it matter what anyone prefers?
I think this phase will end in a frozen conflict and truculent ceasefire that both sides intend to break as soon as they think they have a strategic advantage.
The exact location of this line of settlement will be more or less where the FEBA is when the US turns off the $1bn/week money tap.
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
RFK has no chance v President Biden, he is polling little better than former Massachussetts Governor William Weld did v Trump for the 2020 GOP nomination.
He is not going to emulate the success his father had v LBJ in 1968 which forced the President from the race before his tragic assassination
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
RFK has no chance v President Biden, he is polling little better than former Massachussetts Governor William Weld did v Trump for the 2020 GOP nomination.
He is not going to emulate the success his father had v LBJ in 1968 which forced the President from the race before his tragic assassination
Agree with that - where things stand.
Weld v Trump is different. Trump had a lock on the base, Biden doesn't - he's there because there are no alternatives.
If RFK rises in the Democrat polls, there might be a few of the Democrat power players deciding they need an Option B.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
How is VAT receipts going up if GDP is remaining static?
Other tax receipts are going to be bumper but VAT really isn't going to change that much.
If the invasion is not defeated, it is very likely to be repeated - as we saw from 2014.
Why won't it be repeated if it is defeated? For whatever value of 'defeated' you care to adopt.
It makes it considerably less likely. If this one is seen to have achieved positive results, as with 2014, it makes another one easier. That's not a complicated point.
There isn't some rational cost/benefit analysis to the SMO. See also Brexit.
Perhaps not. It's a shit sandwich of Russia's making. There's no certainty of outcomes, but incentives still apply - and Ukraine isn't going to surrender. Nor is it in Europe's interest to encourage a repeat SMO in a few years' time.
I was trying to think who the last incumbent Democratic president to lose an actual presidential election (as opposed to embarrassing themselves in the primaries).
There's Carter in 1980, obviously, but before that I keep coming up with Grover Cleveland in 1888 which seems an awfully long time ago.
'The UK economy saw no growth in February after being hit by the effects of strikes by public sector workers, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
The UK avoiding a recession will shoot Labour's foxes.
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
Repeating myself again but the big plus for the Government in the next 12 months will be that 2023 tax receipts are likely to show a bumper year because inflation / wage increases will push up VAT + personal tax receipts (and possibly corporation tax ones).
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
How is VAT receipts going up if GDP is remaining static?
Other tax receipts are going to be bumper but VAT really isn't going to change that much.
King Charles could be the last monarch on a banknote as cash loses its crown
Digital payments dominate amid increasing obsolescence of cash
Halfway through 2024, King Charles III will become only the second monarch to see his portrait launched into circulation on British banknotes. It is feasible that his likeness will be the last one on a banknote that is ever actually used.
The use of cash is collapsing around the world. De La Rue, a firm which designs a third of the world’s banknotes, says global demand for physical currency has hit a 20-year low. Card, mobile and digital wallet payments are replacing traditional payment methods at a swift rate.
Globally, between 2018 and 2022, the value of global cash transactions fell from $11.6 trillion (£9.3 trillion) to $7.7 trillion, a drop of a third, according to financial services firm FIS.
Last year, cash accounted for just 16pc of transactions worldwide. By 2026, global cash transactions will be worth only $6 trillion, making up just one in 10 payments, FIS has forecast.
By this measure, the UK is ahead of the curve: last year, cash already accounted for only a tenth of point of sale transactions.
In the 10 years to 2031, cash payments will slump by another 52pc, according to UK Finance, the lender trade body. Debit card payments, already the dominant method for settling up, will have surged by nearly a quarter in that time.
“We are going to have to start preparing for a very, very low cash society,” says John Howells, chief executive of Link, the UK’s cash machine network.
“Cash will be a store for safety, but as a means of payment it is already dropping fast, and that is going to continue. I think in 15 or 20 years’ time that could have virtually disappeared.”
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
That Hunter Biden is an unpleasant parasite who has used his father's position to rake in money looks pretty certain.
But such family enrichment is a common theme in American politics (not to mention in other countries).
The Trump family certainly did similarly.
No doubt but that is reflected in the betting etc.
We don't have that for Biden. And it's not just HB made money off JB's position, it's the allegations JB was being funnelled cash. Nobody cares about Hunter. They do if JB was indeed taking cash from someone.
Jared was in the administration, and has raked in billions from Saudi Arabia on the back of that. Hunter is just another version of Billy Carter; a family embarrassment, but probably no more than that.
Re the header, we get a lot around Trump but what about the possibility Biden doesn't stand because of a scandal risk and the betting implications there? There has been a number of headlines building up over the few days such as Hunter's business associates visiting the White House 80+ times when JB was VP, even though Biden has denied knowing anything of the visits.
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
RFK has no chance v President Biden, he is polling little better than former Massachussetts Governor William Weld did v Trump for the 2020 GOP nomination.
He is not going to emulate the success his father had v LBJ in 1968 which forced the President from the race before his tragic assassination
Comments
Pence is, in any event, an irrelevance. A re-elected Trump would likely find sufficient enablers within the party.
Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things.
If Pence wins the Iowa caucuses, full of his fellow evangelicals, he will himself be a contender for the Republican nomination.
If Trump wins the Presidential election then Americans themselves will have voted to put him back in the White House, even establishment Republicans would have to respect democracy then
Charles wants it sorted before the coronation. Hence the added pressure applied of saying that Harry will there. Alone.
It's been radio silence from her for the last month.
Feinstein asks for Judiciary replacement after calls for resignation
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3947985-feinstein-asks-for-judiciary-replacement-after-calls-for-resignation/
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) announced on Wednesday that her return to work in Washington has been delayed due to ongoing health complications and called on the Senate to appoint a temporary replacement for her on the Judiciary Committee.
Her announcement came hours after Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) called for her to resign from the chamber.
Feinstein has been sidelined since late February after being diagnosed with shingles. Her absence, coupled with that of Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), has left Democrats working at an even 49-49 at best during that time.
However, Feinstein’s post on the Senate Judiciary Committee has meant that the panel has been unable to advance partisan nominees through to floor votes over that period...
"Respecting democracy" does not oblige it in any way to rubber stamp White House policies,
As for Pence, his chances are slim even in Iowa.
https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2023/03/10/iowa-poll-presidential-candidates-2024-donald-trump-favorability-approval-rating-amid-caucus-season/69982668007/
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that a rise in construction activity had been offset by walkouts by teachers and civil servants.
It follows a surprise 0.4% jump in economic growth in January.
Despite February's flat performance, the chancellor said the UK's economic outlook was "brighter than expected".
Jeremy Hunt noted that GDP - the measure of economic growth - had grown by 0.1% in the three months to February and the UK was "set to avoid recession".'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65250170
Certainly in the House; probably in the Senate for most things...
Note Pence has a 66% favourable rating with Iowa Republicans compared to say only 53% for Haley
And "unemployment" isn't a stick to beat the Tories with either these days.
Rishi getting the UK through current difficulties will play well for him at the general.
The whole "France will stand aloof from all the shouting, a magisterial and sober player on the world stage" thing.
Overall I stick by my prediction on New Years Day of things not being economically as bad as predicted, but not being great either.
It is just the terms of that peace that are in dispute.
The level of secrecy determines the prodedures required to protect the information. So 1.25 million people deal with information that has top secret security requirements, that does not mean that they have a need to know something.
The number of people who have access to a particular bit of top secret information is far smaller than 1.25 million people. The are thousands of subdivisions of secret information into compartments and programmes across the US government, intelligence community, and military. You also have dissemination controls, which deal with handling and channels which information can be passed through. Having Top Secret clearance on its own shouldn't give a person any access to Top Secret information, that simply says they can be trusted to handle such information, the Need is a whole different issue and very complex.
And DeSantis and Trump ?
And politically, only the first estimate really counts because it's the one the news notices.
Given debt is fixed, that will give the Government a lot more money to play around with in 2024 in time for the election.
Hunt and Sunak will know this and I suspect SKS will do as well, hence why we might be seeing some panic now.
And the bottom line hasn't changed. For the UK as a whole, it's going to feel more like a recession than a boom. And for quite a lot of people, it's going to be an actual recession.
Remember the lady in one of the 2016 debates? "I don't care about your GDP, it's not my GDP" or words to that effect.
Theory 1 - because we had high unemployment during most of the Thatcher era Conservatives now think that high unemployment is a good thing.
Theory 2 - because Conservative voters tend to be oldies they're not interested in employment, even worse full employment leads to higher pay and so higher prices for oldies.
The only employment related issue in recent political discourse are the numbers not seeking work.
Convert the offices into flats. Each employee gets one of the flats - complete with desk etc - to live in while they work at the company.
That way, everyone is 100% WFH. And 100% in the office. And the commercial real estate market doesn't collapse.
I guess I must be one of the handful of unlucky ones whose bills and other expenses are still rising significantly faster than their income.
It's just the Church has moved several miles to the right and bolted out half of the people who were previously loflong wordhippers.
Whilst desparately trying to boost its congregation by attracting people who have never been Labour like Christian Wakeford and his fellow Tories.
America's judicial system is different to ours in many ways, but on both sides of the Pond isn't truth typically an absolute defence?
Hurrah!
Albeit Starmer is correct it is swing voters not the Conservative or Labour core vote that win elections
The latter is the issue for SKS imo and when push comes to shove the former too 🙄
Did a quick Google as I couldn't remember which person said that, turns out it was at least three different people, so clearly government policy:
https://www.joe.co.uk/news/tory-mp-tells-struggling-brits-to-cut-back-or-get-better-job-361607
https://www.bigissue.com/news/employment/out-of-touch-tory-minister-rachel-maclean-says-people-should-work-more-hours-or-get-a-better-job-to-beat-cost-of-living-crisis/
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/top-tory-says-people-should-29291649
Jake Berry does at least follow his own advice by working two jobs:
https://metro.co.uk/2022/10/03/tory-mp-who-said-get-higher-salary-to-pay-bills-has-42k-second-job-17490080/
Don't put it in coffee though as that's up £1 this week to £7 for 200g
Hence this obvious fallacy.
If everyone gets a better job, who does the jobs at minimum wage? Often for the government. On fixed hours? Where a fight against a pay rise is being waged?
Jobs which can't currently be filled?
Answer. The unemployed, natch.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-bidens-business-partners-assistants-visited-white-house-80-times-when-biden-vp
And separately
https://nypost.com/2023/04/11/ex-biden-stenographer-says-fbi-ignored-prezs-role-in-hunters-business-dealings/
What is clear is that (a) the story won't go away and (b) the House will now launch its own investigations. There may be p1ss and wind here but given one of the people involved has said JB was taking bribes, the chances are probably not.
Personally, I think this sort of stuff is more likely to make JB run again because he would have immunity but, if the stories and evidence keep ratcheting up, then there has to be a question whether some of the Democrat establishment at least think they need to look for an alternative.
Then we have this, namely that Robert F Kennedy Jr is running at 10% support in the Democrat vote:
https://unherd.com/thepost/one-in-10-democratic-voters-supports-robert-f-kennedy-jr/
That is way behind Biden and I don't think where things stand now RFK has much of a chance but if Biden's scandals widen and he is seen as a liability, that percentage may rise and RFK becomes more of a potential threat.
I'm not sure I would be backing Biden as the nominee yet.
I thought we were all in the shade-grown organic fair trade crowd?
Left hand please be at least vaguely aware of right hand, even if you don't speak to each other.
Corbyn is the architect of his own fate.
Not to mention. Teaching assistants have great difficulty working when schools are closed.
He is not going to emulate the success his father had v LBJ in 1968 which forced the President from the race before his tragic assassination
We agree.
But such family enrichment is a common theme in American politics (not to mention in other countries).
The Trump family certainly did similarly.
King Charles could be the last monarch on a banknote as cash loses its crown
Digital payments dominate amid increasing obsolescence of cash
Halfway through 2024, King Charles III will become only the second monarch to see his portrait launched into circulation on British banknotes. It is feasible that his likeness will be the last one on a banknote that is ever actually used.
The use of cash is collapsing around the world. De La Rue, a firm which designs a third of the world’s banknotes, says global demand for physical currency has hit a 20-year low. Card, mobile and digital wallet payments are replacing traditional payment methods at a swift rate.
Globally, between 2018 and 2022, the value of global cash transactions fell from $11.6 trillion (£9.3 trillion) to $7.7 trillion, a drop of a third, according to financial services firm FIS.
Last year, cash accounted for just 16pc of transactions worldwide. By 2026, global cash transactions will be worth only $6 trillion, making up just one in 10 payments, FIS has forecast.
By this measure, the UK is ahead of the curve: last year, cash already accounted for only a tenth of point of sale transactions.
In the 10 years to 2031, cash payments will slump by another 52pc, according to UK Finance, the lender trade body. Debit card payments, already the dominant method for settling up, will have surged by nearly a quarter in that time.
“We are going to have to start preparing for a very, very low cash society,” says John Howells, chief executive of Link, the UK’s cash machine network.
“Cash will be a store for safety, but as a means of payment it is already dropping fast, and that is going to continue. I think in 15 or 20 years’ time that could have virtually disappeared.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/13/king-charles-iii-cash-banknote-money-payments/
I am working on the assumption that the resulting price should be the price of each type multiplied together.
He is the best shot the Democrats have in 2024.
Anyway, I think it's far more applicable to say for this site, it's a day that ends in y, let's talk (again) about Donald Trump and what he has done wrong - as if we didn't know already.
Bunch of lefties though.
We don't have that for Biden. And it's not just HB made money off JB's position, it's the allegations JB was being funnelled cash. Nobody cares about Hunter. They do if JB was indeed taking cash from someone.
I think this phase will end in a frozen conflict and truculent ceasefire that both sides intend to break as soon as they think they have a strategic advantage.
The exact location of this line of settlement will be more or less where the FEBA is when the US turns off the $1bn/week money tap.
Weld v Trump is different. Trump had a lock on the base, Biden doesn't - he's there because there are no alternatives.
If RFK rises in the Democrat polls, there might be a few of the Democrat power players deciding they need an Option B.
Other tax receipts are going to be bumper but VAT really isn't going to change that much.
It's a shit sandwich of Russia's making. There's no certainty of outcomes, but incentives still apply - and Ukraine isn't going to surrender.
Nor is it in Europe's interest to encourage a repeat SMO in a few years' time.
There's Carter in 1980, obviously, but before that I keep coming up with Grover Cleveland in 1888 which seems an awfully long time ago.
Hunter is just another version of Billy Carter; a family embarrassment, but probably no more than that.