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GE2019 CON voters much more likely to switch to LAB than vice versa – politicalbetting.com

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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to spend the day arguing about grooming gangs, the subject is literally too bleak, disturbing and depressing, and it's a lovely spring day - yay - and I'm sitting in Gail's having a flat white staring at a happy world. So here are my final points all at once

    1. The BAME status of Sunak and Braverman allows them to address this issue head on in a way no white politician would dare. Good for them. It has to be done

    2. They are putting Labour in an awkward position. The entire country knows that race/ethnicity/political correctness played a big part in this, yet Labour's instincts will be to deny it: see the Guardian's repellent doublethink today, still trying to disguise the truth

    3. Remember one of these first people to tell us this was happening? Nick Griffin. How did the Establishment react? They arrested.... Nick Griffin... for stirring up racial hatred. So, again, denying that race is a major aspect is dumb, and there have been many attempts at a cover-up, that was just one

    And now I shall revert to kinder concepts

    There may well have been issues around hesitancy of the police to act on information they were given.

    But surely if you ascribe something in the culture to the reason for abuse of any kind but in this instance sexual abuse then you must ascribe it across the board.

    If there are:

    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by Pakistani men;
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by men of Kent; and
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by left handed Wolves supporters

    and you think that there is something about the culture that contributed to these cases then you must surely look at each cultural/national/ethnic group engaged in this and make a pronouncement.

    AFAICS people have only done this for one ethnic grouping - taxi drivers.

    Or have I missed something.
    You may have missed something. Like this statement from one of the major prosecutors in these actual cases, a Muslim man:


    "A senior prosecutor ended years of official denials over a pattern of race-linked sex crimes yesterday when he publicly acknowledged that the grooming and sexual exploitation of white girls by group offenders was “a particular problem in Asian communities”.

    As two men were convicted of raping or assaulting four drunken young women in North West England, the region’s Chief Crown Prosecutor said it should not pass unnoticed “that the perpetrators were Asian and the victims were not”.

    Nazir Afzal suggested that “cultural baggage and the status of women among some men in these communities contributes to their disrespect for the rights of women.

    “Exploitation happens in every community but these cases demonstrate that group grooming is a particular problem in Asian communities. I will not turn a blind eye to crimes in any community,” he said."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a75d16b1-a15f-4c0a-af84-7308447feb31

    Nazir Afzal is definitely worth listening to:

    https://twitter.com/nazirafzal/status/1642641672877092866

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    I really can't be arsed to argue with PB on this topic, not today. Partly because there is a class of PB-er who simply will not deal with the reality in front of them, and will seek ANY alternative explanation. It's like being a Darwinian in a forum of creationists. So I hereby resign from this debate, for now

    Yep good call to stop embarrassing yourself. You do a lot of that ("well you obviously have a personal problem/blind spot/mental aberration so I'll leave it there") on PB when you realise that the boring facts don't agree with your sensationalist and provocative assertions.

    But that's cool. Look forward to your next one. It's what makes you you.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to spend the day arguing about grooming gangs, the subject is literally too bleak, disturbing and depressing, and it's a lovely spring day - yay - and I'm sitting in Gail's having a flat white staring at a happy world. So here are my final points all at once

    1. The BAME status of Sunak and Braverman allows them to address this issue head on in a way no white politician would dare. Good for them. It has to be done

    2. They are putting Labour in an awkward position. The entire country knows that race/ethnicity/political correctness played a big part in this, yet Labour's instincts will be to deny it: see the Guardian's repellent doublethink today, still trying to disguise the truth

    3. Remember one of these first people to tell us this was happening? Nick Griffin. How did the Establishment react? They arrested.... Nick Griffin... for stirring up racial hatred. So, again, denying that race is a major aspect is dumb, and there have been many attempts at a cover-up, that was just one

    And now I shall revert to kinder concepts

    Cover-up is common to pretty well every instance of child abuse, and far from confined to social services - Saville; Smith; various churches; residential schools of various kinds, etc.

    If the government are serious about addressing the problem, rather than issuing soundbites, then they will devote significant resources to doing so.
    I'm open to being surprised, but looking at their record, I'm sceptical.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/apr/02/rishi-sunak-says-grooming-gang-crackdown-will-defy-political-correctness
    ...Only 11% of child sexual abuse cases end with a charge, down from 32% seven years ago, according to official figures, while court delays have grown far worse, leading to some victims waiting years for justice...
    The Jay enquiry reported back in 2014. The government have had close to a decade to provide better protection to vulnerable children. If they think a similar situation would still not be reported and addressed now then they have already failed. If they think it would be reported now, then time to move on to the next ways to better protect vulnerable children.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    As I'm not allowed to post AI images, I will just have to link to these - which are very clever. Senior Tory politicians depicted as desperate poor people. Sunak is particularly good

    https://twitter.com/desertrose1969/status/1641748003294699521?s=20

    Another job to wipe from the list, for our kids. Cartoonist. Along with porn star, lawyer, thriller writer, etc. In the end we may all be flint knappers
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    felix said:

    As predicted.
    Pretty sure this waltz has gone on in the lead up to most recent Scottish elections (though not usually this far out): SCons suggest tactical voting coalition, SLab state they wouldn’t touch it with a shitty stick, SCons moan on about being the only party who’ll protect the Union.


    All very predictable - I wonder how many seats stay SNP as a result.
    Nah, Labour needs to win over yes voters if it wants to win 20+ seats. Publicly cosying up to the Tories would undermine this... and besides, a lot of SCON voters in the Central Belt seem to have gone over to Labour anyway.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited April 2023

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to spend the day arguing about grooming gangs, the subject is literally too bleak, disturbing and depressing, and it's a lovely spring day - yay - and I'm sitting in Gail's having a flat white staring at a happy world. So here are my final points all at once

    1. The BAME status of Sunak and Braverman allows them to address this issue head on in a way no white politician would dare. Good for them. It has to be done

    2. They are putting Labour in an awkward position. The entire country knows that race/ethnicity/political correctness played a big part in this, yet Labour's instincts will be to deny it: see the Guardian's repellent doublethink today, still trying to disguise the truth

    3. Remember one of these first people to tell us this was happening? Nick Griffin. How did the Establishment react? They arrested.... Nick Griffin... for stirring up racial hatred. So, again, denying that race is a major aspect is dumb, and there have been many attempts at a cover-up, that was just one

    And now I shall revert to kinder concepts

    There may well have been issues around hesitancy of the police to act on information they were given.

    But surely if you ascribe something in the culture to the reason for abuse of any kind but in this instance sexual abuse then you must ascribe it across the board.

    If there are:

    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by Pakistani men;
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by men of Kent; and
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by left handed Wolves supporters

    and you think that there is something about the culture that contributed to these cases then you must surely look at each cultural/national/ethnic group engaged in this and make a pronouncement.

    AFAICS people have only done this for one ethnic grouping - taxi drivers.

    Or have I missed something.
    You may have missed something. Like this statement from one of the major prosecutors in these actual cases, a Muslim man:


    "A senior prosecutor ended years of official denials over a pattern of race-linked sex crimes yesterday when he publicly acknowledged that the grooming and sexual exploitation of white girls by group offenders was “a particular problem in Asian communities”.

    As two men were convicted of raping or assaulting four drunken young women in North West England, the region’s Chief Crown Prosecutor said it should not pass unnoticed “that the perpetrators were Asian and the victims were not”.

    Nazir Afzal suggested that “cultural baggage and the status of women among some men in these communities contributes to their disrespect for the rights of women.

    “Exploitation happens in every community but these cases demonstrate that group grooming is a particular problem in Asian communities. I will not turn a blind eye to crimes in any community,” he said."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a75d16b1-a15f-4c0a-af84-7308447feb31

    Nazir Afzal is definitely worth listening to:

    https://twitter.com/nazirafzal/status/1642641672877092866

    I mean it's just a shame that it needs spelling out.

    I doubt @Leon will spend two minutes (actually the first 30 seconds) listening to it. I blame TikTok.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I really can't be arsed to argue with PB on this topic, not today. Partly because there is a class of PB-er who simply will not deal with the reality in front of them, and will seek ANY alternative explanation. It's like being a Darwinian in a forum of creationists. So I hereby resign from this debate, for now

    Yep good call to stop embarrassing yourself. You do a lot of that ("well you obviously have a personal problem/blind spot/mental aberration so I'll leave it there") on PB when you realise that the boring facts don't agree with your sensationalist and provocative assertions.

    But that's cool. Look forward to your next one. It's what makes you you.
    You can't cope with the reality. It would mean your entire world view would collapse. Hence my comparison with creationists. I have no desire to cause you any more existential anguish, as I am in a benign mood, so I am cutting you some slack

    You're welcome
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to spend the day arguing about grooming gangs, the subject is literally too bleak, disturbing and depressing, and it's a lovely spring day - yay - and I'm sitting in Gail's having a flat white staring at a happy world. So here are my final points all at once

    1. The BAME status of Sunak and Braverman allows them to address this issue head on in a way no white politician would dare. Good for them. It has to be done

    2. They are putting Labour in an awkward position. The entire country knows that race/ethnicity/political correctness played a big part in this, yet Labour's instincts will be to deny it: see the Guardian's repellent doublethink today, still trying to disguise the truth

    3. Remember one of these first people to tell us this was happening? Nick Griffin. How did the Establishment react? They arrested.... Nick Griffin... for stirring up racial hatred. So, again, denying that race is a major aspect is dumb, and there have been many attempts at a cover-up, that was just one

    And now I shall revert to kinder concepts

    There may well have been issues around hesitancy of the police to act on information they were given.

    But surely if you ascribe something in the culture to the reason for abuse of any kind but in this instance sexual abuse then you must ascribe it across the board.

    If there are:

    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by Pakistani men;
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by men of Kent; and
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by left handed Wolves supporters

    and you think that there is something about the culture that contributed to these cases then you must surely look at each cultural/national/ethnic group engaged in this and make a pronouncement.

    AFAICS people have only done this for one ethnic grouping - taxi drivers.

    Or have I missed something.
    You may have missed something. Like this statement from one of the major prosecutors in these actual cases, a Muslim man:


    "A senior prosecutor ended years of official denials over a pattern of race-linked sex crimes yesterday when he publicly acknowledged that the grooming and sexual exploitation of white girls by group offenders was “a particular problem in Asian communities”.

    As two men were convicted of raping or assaulting four drunken young women in North West England, the region’s Chief Crown Prosecutor said it should not pass unnoticed “that the perpetrators were Asian and the victims were not”.

    Nazir Afzal suggested that “cultural baggage and the status of women among some men in these communities contributes to their disrespect for the rights of women.

    “Exploitation happens in every community but these cases demonstrate that group grooming is a particular problem in Asian communities. I will not turn a blind eye to crimes in any community,” he said."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a75d16b1-a15f-4c0a-af84-7308447feb31
    Yes it looks as though the Asian community has a problem with sex crimes. As does the indigenous white community. As do many other communities.

    It's a bit of a man bites dog thing for the indigenous population, however.

    The key issue is let's imagine that the occurrence of this is 1/1000 for the Asian community (itself of course as was discussed today a broad spectrum of people with brown skin), and 1/756 for the indigenous population. Are you prepared to say, and do you have the data science to confirm that the discrepancy is down to ethnic factors.

    If indeed there is a discrepancy. Is there? @carnforth evidently thinks there is and there may well be but I have no idea.
    My source, shaky though it is, is remembering an article - which I cannot now find - saying that 5% of all Pakistani males 16-65 in Rotherham have been convicted of such abuse. Now, unless rape has suddenly become easy to convict, imagine how much you have to multiply that up to get the real figure. Entirely possible that 25% of them were at it.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,872
    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Morning all! I agree with @Heathener - the public mood is mutinous. And the latest Tory obscenity is the attack on British men of Pakistani heritage.

    Yes, we have a few examples of Pakistani "grooming gangs" which the authorities ignored. But she's basically just given all the white men who do this the green light to not be suspected.

    They *can't* be a nonce. They have white skin. Just like Jimmy Saville . This is crayon politics aimed at genuinely ignorant people who have had this weaponised by certain newspapers as a stick to beat anyone with funny skin. Or anyone who actually has a faith unlike the ignorant white racist.

    Before anyone says I am being exclusionary, I am not. Some heinous acts have been carried out by British men of Pakistani heritage. As well as by white men of non-Pakistani heritage. Personally I think we should go after criminals - hard to do when the government have gutted the justice system.

    I feel for you

    an Asian PM and and Asian home secretary so you cant cry racist.

    You must be gutted.
    Laughable. This is a policy written in crayon to stoke racism. BTW "Asian" is itself racist when you are claiming that a Hindu PM and an Indian-heritage HS are the same as people of Pakistani origin.

    Can't be racist? You ever heard Indians and Pakistanis going at each other? This is someone from one heritage branding people of a different heritage to all be perverts. It is *inherently racist.

    Growing up in Rochdale in the 1980s, "paki" what white person shorthand for all the Asians in the town. Despite the reality that we had sizable communities from India. Kashmir. Bangladesh. And yes Pakistan. Branding anyone with brown skin as a unitary group - "Asian" in your case - is as ignorant as my Gran calling the Indian family next door "the Pakis"

    It is 2023. Really sad to read that level of ignorance is live and well. Then again we know this - that policy is aimed square at them.
    Ive sat in rooms with hindus sikhs and buddhists and what they say about the muslims would have me put in jail if I said it.

    And thats the point, you and your pastey faced cohorts run around yelling racism when there is no equal application of the law and all that counts is which group meets your virtue signalling twaddle this week.

    So having experienced Asian on Asian racism yourself - as I have - why have you said that the HS can't be racist towards a different Asian heritage?

    You mention equal application of the law. Growing up in Rochdale the local monster was Cyril Smith. Who got away with it. In more recent times the monsters have been Pakistani heritage. Who got away with it.

    If inbuilt racism is the reason why we don't apply the law equally, why do we keep having appalling cases where mass offenders eventually get caught? If racism is why the Pakistani heritage gang members took so long to get caught, was it also racism that the same system ignored Smith?

    Not the smartest thing you have ever posted.
    It was plain that there was a very great reluctance on the part of the authorities to deal with the concerns raised by Ann Cryer and Sarah Champion due to its being “ a cultural matter.”

    But overall, I’ve reached the conclusion that too many people in authority really are unbothered by child abuse, unless it’s done to their own children.
    It's very sad, Britons are far more interested in animals than children.
    Have you ever stopped to ponder why that might be?
    It's one of the puzzling things about this country and something that I find quite hard to deal with at times. When you visit a country where they are more welcoming towards children it is such a massive relief.
    Once in France, where I spotted an obviously lost toddler in a crowd, I started to go over to help, but nearly died in the stampede.
    Whereas, in the UK, people would, for a whole number of reasons, often be wary to intervene directly. Maybe they’ll watch from a distance to see if anything untoward happens, but they are worried about trying to do the right thing and ending up in some sort of trouble.
    Especially if male due to the scare tactics around stranger abduction of children of the last few decades. Indeed I found even being out shopping with my own young child I seemed an object of suspicion at times if I didn't have a woman with me even to the point on two occasions of being approached by store security.

    Sad fact remains children are more at risk from those they know. I do however do the watch from a distance thing purely because I don't want to risk an accusation
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the Conservatives won a landslide victory in 2019 and Labour has a clear lead in the polls it would be astonishing if 2019 Conservative voters were not more likely to switch to Labour than the reverse

    Yes.
    That was very much my first reaction to the header.
    What's more, they are switching in precisely the numbers to give that lead.
    Not revelatory really.
    12% of CURRENT (IE. not 2019) Conservative voters would definitely or "probably in the future" consider switching to Labour. The figure in the opposite direction is 9%. 54% of CURRENT Conservatives would never vote Labour, 65% of CURRENT Labour would never vote Conservative.

    So in terms of current VI, the Lab vote still looks a tad more solid than the Conservative one.
    Maybe it is just that Labour supporters have more hate in their hearts for those that disagree with them than Conservatives do?
    Outing yourself as a staunch lab supporter.
    While you, not for the first time, out yourself as the most stupid person on this site.

    Unlike you, Malcolm, I am a moderate. I generally vote for the party that can deliver moderate and reasonably effective government. Also unlike you I would never support a party that had someone of questionable morals/for a party that has a leader who was described by his QC as a "bully and a sex pest" or a party that is happy to welcome someone who was suspended from another party for racism/antisemitism.
    You are a sad angry git , to be pitied. I doubt even a mother could love such a bitter twisted little runt. Jog on loser.
    Now malc come on say what you really mean....
    Lol. He can't because the two-brain celled nasty little saltire-wrapped fascist is largely inarticulate.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    I’m a bit disappointed to only have one blue plaque on my route, but it’s quite a good one


    No flies on you!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,457
    I place the blame for the grooming scandal largely on the police, because it was their inaction that lead to a culture of impunity that in my opinion lead to the explosion in these disgusting crimes. As I've said, imagine if it was suddenly secretly legal for everyone over 6 ft to shoplift. Some would insist on paying. Some would openly take advantage. More and more would start to find reasons and moral justifications 'forgot my wallet' for not paying on occasion. Over the course of years, it would become an epidemic. The police and authorities caused the scandal they were trying to avoid.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I really can't be arsed to argue with PB on this topic, not today. Partly because there is a class of PB-er who simply will not deal with the reality in front of them, and will seek ANY alternative explanation. It's like being a Darwinian in a forum of creationists. So I hereby resign from this debate, for now

    Yep good call to stop embarrassing yourself. You do a lot of that ("well you obviously have a personal problem/blind spot/mental aberration so I'll leave it there") on PB when you realise that the boring facts don't agree with your sensationalist and provocative assertions.

    But that's cool. Look forward to your next one. It's what makes you you.
    You can't cope with the reality. It would mean your entire world view would collapse. Hence my comparison with creationists. I have no desire to cause you any more existential anguish, as I am in a benign mood, so I am cutting you some slack

    You're welcome
    Creationists and flat-earthers have one type of kindred spirit in the UK: people who believe there are "benefits of Brexit" lol
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to spend the day arguing about grooming gangs, the subject is literally too bleak, disturbing and depressing, and it's a lovely spring day - yay - and I'm sitting in Gail's having a flat white staring at a happy world. So here are my final points all at once

    1. The BAME status of Sunak and Braverman allows them to address this issue head on in a way no white politician would dare. Good for them. It has to be done

    2. They are putting Labour in an awkward position. The entire country knows that race/ethnicity/political correctness played a big part in this, yet Labour's instincts will be to deny it: see the Guardian's repellent doublethink today, still trying to disguise the truth

    3. Remember one of these first people to tell us this was happening? Nick Griffin. How did the Establishment react? They arrested.... Nick Griffin... for stirring up racial hatred. So, again, denying that race is a major aspect is dumb, and there have been many attempts at a cover-up, that was just one

    And now I shall revert to kinder concepts

    Cover-up is common to pretty well every instance of child abuse, and far from confined to social services - Saville; Smith; various churches; residential schools of various kinds, etc.

    If the government are serious about addressing the problem, rather than issuing soundbites, then they will devote significant resources to doing so.
    I'm open to being surprised, but looking at their record, I'm sceptical.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/apr/02/rishi-sunak-says-grooming-gang-crackdown-will-defy-political-correctness
    ...Only 11% of child sexual abuse cases end with a charge, down from 32% seven years ago, according to official figures, while court delays have grown far worse, leading to some victims waiting years for justice...
    The Jay enquiry reported back in 2014. The government have had close to a decade to provide better protection to vulnerable children. If they think a similar situation would still not be reported and addressed now then they have already failed. If they think it would be reported now, then time to move on to the next ways to better protect vulnerable children.
    It's because they don't know what safeguarding is.

    That's not sarcasm, it's a fact. They literally do not understand it, or how it operates. Spielman couldn't even define it when asked.

    I have been wondering if I should report Sunak to himself on the grounds the government he now leads has repeatedly screwed every child in the country. But that would be bordering on sarcasm.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440

    felix said:

    As predicted.
    Pretty sure this waltz has gone on in the lead up to most recent Scottish elections (though not usually this far out): SCons suggest tactical voting coalition, SLab state they wouldn’t touch it with a shitty stick, SCons moan on about being the only party who’ll protect the Union.


    All very predictable - I wonder how many seats stay SNP as a result.
    Nah, Labour needs to win over yes voters if it wants to win 20+ seats. Publicly cosying up to the Tories would undermine this... and besides, a lot of SCON voters in the Central Belt seem to have gone over to Labour anyway.
    Of course a number of elderly Tory voters will have died over the past few years and been replaced by younger, Labour-inclined people.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I really can't be arsed to argue with PB on this topic, not today. Partly because there is a class of PB-er who simply will not deal with the reality in front of them, and will seek ANY alternative explanation. It's like being a Darwinian in a forum of creationists. So I hereby resign from this debate, for now

    Yep good call to stop embarrassing yourself. You do a lot of that ("well you obviously have a personal problem/blind spot/mental aberration so I'll leave it there") on PB when you realise that the boring facts don't agree with your sensationalist and provocative assertions.

    But that's cool. Look forward to your next one. It's what makes you you.
    You can't cope with the reality. It would mean your entire world view would collapse. Hence my comparison with creationists. I have no desire to cause you any more existential anguish, as I am in a benign mood, so I am cutting you some slack

    You're welcome
    Did you watch that twitter clip?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    edited April 2023
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to spend the day arguing about grooming gangs, the subject is literally too bleak, disturbing and depressing, and it's a lovely spring day - yay - and I'm sitting in Gail's having a flat white staring at a happy world. So here are my final points all at once

    1. The BAME status of Sunak and Braverman allows them to address this issue head on in a way no white politician would dare. Good for them. It has to be done

    2. They are putting Labour in an awkward position. The entire country knows that race/ethnicity/political correctness played a big part in this, yet Labour's instincts will be to deny it: see the Guardian's repellent doublethink today, still trying to disguise the truth

    3. Remember one of these first people to tell us this was happening? Nick Griffin. How did the Establishment react? They arrested.... Nick Griffin... for stirring up racial hatred. So, again, denying that race is a major aspect is dumb, and there have been many attempts at a cover-up, that was just one

    And now I shall revert to kinder concepts

    There may well have been issues around hesitancy of the police to act on information they were given.

    But surely if you ascribe something in the culture to the reason for abuse of any kind but in this instance sexual abuse then you must ascribe it across the board.

    If there are:

    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by Pakistani men;
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by men of Kent; and
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by left handed Wolves supporters

    and you think that there is something about the culture that contributed to these cases then you must surely look at each cultural/national/ethnic group engaged in this and make a pronouncement.

    AFAICS people have only done this for one ethnic grouping - taxi drivers.

    Or have I missed something.
    You may have missed something. Like this statement from one of the major prosecutors in these actual cases, a Muslim man:


    "A senior prosecutor ended years of official denials over a pattern of race-linked sex crimes yesterday when he publicly acknowledged that the grooming and sexual exploitation of white girls by group offenders was “a particular problem in Asian communities”.

    As two men were convicted of raping or assaulting four drunken young women in North West England, the region’s Chief Crown Prosecutor said it should not pass unnoticed “that the perpetrators were Asian and the victims were not”.

    Nazir Afzal suggested that “cultural baggage and the status of women among some men in these communities contributes to their disrespect for the rights of women.

    “Exploitation happens in every community but these cases demonstrate that group grooming is a particular problem in Asian communities. I will not turn a blind eye to crimes in any community,” he said."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a75d16b1-a15f-4c0a-af84-7308447feb31

    Nazir Afzal is definitely worth listening to:

    https://twitter.com/nazirafzal/status/1642641672877092866

    I mean it's just a shame that it needs spelling out.

    I doubt @Leon will spend two minutes (actually the first 30 seconds) listening to it. I blame TikTok.
    Legislating for mandatory reporting was - rightly - a recommendation of The Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse.
    https://www.iicsa.org.uk/reports-recommendations/publications/inquiry/final-report/executive-summary.html

    But without resourcing to follow up such reports - which are already standard procedure for (for example) most schools - such legislation is just more gesture politics, too.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    I’m a bit disappointed to only have one blue plaque on my route, but it’s quite a good one


    I believe William Golding was killed by the father of an ex PBer
    I recall you saying this before - its definitely a rumour isn't it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,046
    edited April 2023

    felix said:

    As predicted.
    Pretty sure this waltz has gone on in the lead up to most recent Scottish elections (though not usually this far out): SCons suggest tactical voting coalition, SLab state they wouldn’t touch it with a shitty stick, SCons moan on about being the only party who’ll protect the Union.


    All very predictable - I wonder how many seats stay SNP as a result.
    Nah, Labour needs to win over yes voters if it wants to win 20+ seats. Publicly cosying up to the Tories would undermine this... and besides, a lot of SCON voters in the Central Belt seem to have gone over to Labour anyway.
    SCons wlll tactically vote for Starmer Labour over the SNP where Labour are the main challengers yes
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369

    On Kindles: I have an old (maybe first generation, not sure) Kindle with a physical keyboard and late last year the ability to browse and buy online directly using it was removed. So that is one black mark against it.

    I still have an old Terry Pratchett novel that was dried out after dropping it into the bath that still works fine. The publisher isn't going to manage to make it less functional remotely.

    It's a shame nobody seems to have made an open-source ereader that's as nice to use as the Kindle (my daughter was given one so I've had a go). My wife had an Onyx Boox, but it wasn't as good to use, and it became obsolete eventually too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    I place the blame for the grooming scandal largely on the police, because it was their inaction that lead to a culture of impunity that in my opinion lead to the explosion in these disgusting crimes. As I've said, imagine if it was suddenly secretly legal for everyone over 6 ft to shoplift. Some would insist on paying. Some would openly take advantage. More and more would start to find reasons and moral justifications 'forgot my wallet' for not paying on occasion. Over the course of years, it would become an epidemic. The police and authorities caused the scandal they were trying to avoid.

    The shoplifting analogy carries straight over to 2022 Los Angeles, where the elected public prosecutor said that shoplifting of less than $950 will not be prosecuted, and that the police would be ‘defunded’. Guess what happened next?
    https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/shoplifting-crimes-in-la-are-on-the-rise/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440
    carnforth said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to spend the day arguing about grooming gangs, the subject is literally too bleak, disturbing and depressing, and it's a lovely spring day - yay - and I'm sitting in Gail's having a flat white staring at a happy world. So here are my final points all at once

    1. The BAME status of Sunak and Braverman allows them to address this issue head on in a way no white politician would dare. Good for them. It has to be done

    2. They are putting Labour in an awkward position. The entire country knows that race/ethnicity/political correctness played a big part in this, yet Labour's instincts will be to deny it: see the Guardian's repellent doublethink today, still trying to disguise the truth

    3. Remember one of these first people to tell us this was happening? Nick Griffin. How did the Establishment react? They arrested.... Nick Griffin... for stirring up racial hatred. So, again, denying that race is a major aspect is dumb, and there have been many attempts at a cover-up, that was just one

    And now I shall revert to kinder concepts

    There may well have been issues around hesitancy of the police to act on information they were given.

    But surely if you ascribe something in the culture to the reason for abuse of any kind but in this instance sexual abuse then you must ascribe it across the board.

    If there are:

    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by Pakistani men;
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by men of Kent; and
    1,000 cases of x-type of abuse perpetrated by left handed Wolves supporters

    and you think that there is something about the culture that contributed to these cases then you must surely look at each cultural/national/ethnic group engaged in this and make a pronouncement.

    AFAICS people have only done this for one ethnic grouping - taxi drivers.

    Or have I missed something.
    You may have missed something. Like this statement from one of the major prosecutors in these actual cases, a Muslim man:


    "A senior prosecutor ended years of official denials over a pattern of race-linked sex crimes yesterday when he publicly acknowledged that the grooming and sexual exploitation of white girls by group offenders was “a particular problem in Asian communities”.

    As two men were convicted of raping or assaulting four drunken young women in North West England, the region’s Chief Crown Prosecutor said it should not pass unnoticed “that the perpetrators were Asian and the victims were not”.

    Nazir Afzal suggested that “cultural baggage and the status of women among some men in these communities contributes to their disrespect for the rights of women.

    “Exploitation happens in every community but these cases demonstrate that group grooming is a particular problem in Asian communities. I will not turn a blind eye to crimes in any community,” he said."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a75d16b1-a15f-4c0a-af84-7308447feb31
    Yes it looks as though the Asian community has a problem with sex crimes. As does the indigenous white community. As do many other communities.

    It's a bit of a man bites dog thing for the indigenous population, however.

    The key issue is let's imagine that the occurrence of this is 1/1000 for the Asian community (itself of course as was discussed today a broad spectrum of people with brown skin), and 1/756 for the indigenous population. Are you prepared to say, and do you have the data science to confirm that the discrepancy is down to ethnic factors.

    If indeed there is a discrepancy. Is there? @carnforth evidently thinks there is and there may well be but I have no idea.
    My source, shaky though it is, is remembering an article - which I cannot now find - saying that 5% of all Pakistani males 16-65 in Rotherham have been convicted of such abuse. Now, unless rape has suddenly become easy to convict, imagine how much you have to multiply that up to get the real figure. Entirely possible that 25% of them were at it.
    How many mosques are in Rotherham? Might be that a few bad apples congregated at the same place socially.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,046
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






    Or more they are fleeing to places they can more easily afford to buy a house and raise a family.

    Prices in the South, Arizona and most of the MidWest for houses are a fraction of those in California, Seattle, Boston, New York and most of the North East
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I’m a bit disappointed to only have one blue plaque on my route, but it’s quite a good one


    I believe William Golding was killed by the father of an ex PBer
    Wikipedia says he had a heart attack !!

    Appreciate it is not always right
    Cover story.
    In reality he was abducted and murdered by aliens who were disguised as British Pakistani men using What Three Words with further encouragement provided by ChatGPT.
  • Wow



    But the hypocrisy




  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/2b/ded3ody4cwe4.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/xa/asbf278oppg1.jpeg" alt="" />

    It’s all to do with the Covid response and crime levels. People are leaving LA, SF, Portland, and NY; heading to mostly Miami and Austin.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






    Except Florida doesn't fit that theory.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Clearly an idiot, but:

    Who is Lance Forman?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,996
    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






    They're generally moving from places with high personal taxes to those with low personal taxes. Assuming a correlation between tax levels and public spending on social welfare, healthcare, drug addiction treatment etc perhaps it makes some sense.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Taz said:

    Horse_B said:

    I am in contact with @CorrectHorseBattery3, I am not sure how he would contact Mike, as he is banned, he would like to return if allowed

    Why would anyone who has been banned from somewhere grovel to get back onto the site ?

    I have been banned from a couple of forums in my time, a Dr Who one and a cult TV one.

    Why bother begging to get back ?

    Especially if you only are going to get banned again for the same thing.
    Surely at Dr Who you just regenerate as a new poster?
    Only 12 times only if the Time Lords give you a new regeneration cycle oh feck it, as many times as you like...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    ydoethur said:

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Clearly an idiot, but:

    Who is Lance Forman?
    My dyslexic cousin perhaps?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    I have a friend called @Royalhorseartillery who is desperate to join this board and talk about how people are slowly starting to see through Starmer, and reconsider Sunak.

    Any ideas how I get in touch with the eds?

    I think Correct Horse Battery Staple (but the name is too long I assume) was named after the password which was supposed to be difficult to guess.

    The battery element was a power battery, not an artillery battery.

    https://xkcd.com/936/?correct=horse&battery=staple
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






    Or more they are fleeing to places they can more easily afford to buy a house and raise a family.

    Prices in the South, Arizona and most of the MidWest for houses are a fraction of those in California, Seattle, Boston, New York and most of the North East
    Yes, but it seems house prices are lower in the South, etc, because everyone there has died?

    The correlation is fabulously weird

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    ydoethur said:

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Clearly an idiot, but:

    Who is Lance Forman?
    Pro-Brexit smoked salmon tycoon.
  • Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Wasn’t it just a song written about a hundred years before Nazis existed?
  • ydoethur said:

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Clearly an idiot, but:

    Who is Lance Forman?
    A former Brexit Party/Tory MEP, former SPAD to Peter Lilley.

    A bit of a roaster.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited April 2023
    This is bad. What is it about the culture of members of the CBI that make them more inclined to indulge in this kind of behaviour?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/03/revealed-new-claims-of-sexual-misconduct-and-toxic-culture-at-cbi
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,996
    Sandpit said:

    I place the blame for the grooming scandal largely on the police, because it was their inaction that lead to a culture of impunity that in my opinion lead to the explosion in these disgusting crimes. As I've said, imagine if it was suddenly secretly legal for everyone over 6 ft to shoplift. Some would insist on paying. Some would openly take advantage. More and more would start to find reasons and moral justifications 'forgot my wallet' for not paying on occasion. Over the course of years, it would become an epidemic. The police and authorities caused the scandal they were trying to avoid.

    The shoplifting analogy carries straight over to 2022 Los Angeles, where the elected public prosecutor said that shoplifting of less than $950 will not be prosecuted, and that the police would be ‘defunded’. Guess what happened next?
    https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/shoplifting-crimes-in-la-are-on-the-rise/
    Passive decriminalisation is one of the worst law and order policies regardless of the topic. It encourages the bad thing to happen without proper regulation, it means you're never 100% certain what you are doing is allowed or not (occasionally the police will go in hard to make an example), and it makes prosecution of the bigger offenders more difficult.

    True of drugs, traffic infringements / speeding / drink driving, low level tax evasion, still sometimes true of abuse within marriage, fox hunting and so on.

    Either make something illegal and enforce it, or fully legalise and regulate it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






    Except Florida doesn't fit that theory.
    Leon seems oddly susceptible to the whole correlation/causation fallacy thing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    I place the blame for the grooming scandal largely on the police, because it was their inaction that lead to a culture of impunity that in my opinion lead to the explosion in these disgusting crimes. As I've said, imagine if it was suddenly secretly legal for everyone over 6 ft to shoplift. Some would insist on paying. Some would openly take advantage. More and more would start to find reasons and moral justifications 'forgot my wallet' for not paying on occasion. Over the course of years, it would become an epidemic. The police and authorities caused the scandal they were trying to avoid.

    The shoplifting analogy carries straight over to 2022 Los Angeles, where the elected public prosecutor said that shoplifting of less than $950 will not be prosecuted, and that the police would be ‘defunded’. Guess what happened next?
    https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/shoplifting-crimes-in-la-are-on-the-rise/
    Passive decriminalisation is one of the worst law and order policies regardless of the topic. It encourages the bad thing to happen without proper regulation, it means you're never 100% certain what you are doing is allowed or not (occasionally the police will go in hard to make an example), and it makes prosecution of the bigger offenders more difficult.

    True of drugs, traffic infringements / speeding / drink driving, low level tax evasion, still sometimes true of abuse within marriage, fox hunting and so on.

    Either make something illegal and enforce it, or fully legalise and regulate it.
    I'm not sure drink driving is much of a grey area, enforcement-wise.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    Nigelb said:

    Trump: “Ultimately [Putin] is going to take over all of Ukraine”*
    https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1642549167619702784



    *"If I'm re-elected."

    The thing that I'm noticing more and more about Trump and his supporters is how pessimistic and defeatist they all are. It's quite the contrast with the Republican party of Ronald Reagan.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    ydoethur said:

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Clearly an idiot, but:

    Who is Lance Forman?
    A former Brexit Party/Tory MEP, former SPAD to Peter Lilley.

    A bit of a roaster.
    So I was pretty close with 'idiot?' Fair enough.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,535
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    ydoethur said:

    Follow up on US life expectancy:

    Much has been made of the declining life expectancy in the US.

    The reality is regional. Think of the US as two countries:

    Some blue counties with increasing life-expectancy better than 🇯🇵 (84) & many red counties with plummeting life expectancy worse than 🇷🇺 (71).
    1/




    https://twitter.com/nickmmark/status/1642548933795909632?s=20

    That map puzzles me. Sure, the Deep South having low life expectancy is what you would expect, but given the amount of gun violence in America’s cities it’s a bit startling to see most of them have higher life expectancy.

    Doubly so given that’s where most of the population live, so if anything you would expect American life expectancy to skew higher, masking a decline for certain groups and areas.

    What’s the nuance?
    Activity levels. Cities force you to walk more.
    Not sure you have ever been to a US city in that case. Most of those I have visited with the exception of New York seem to actively discourage walking. Indeed the idea of walking anywhere in Los Angeles would be met with incredulity. Bear in mind this is the country that has drive through everything. Including drive through combined liquor and gun stores.
    You think everyone in LA owns a car. V naive.
    Try walking anywhere of any distance in LA. I dare you.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Wasn’t it just a song written about a hundred years before Nazis existed?
    Isn’t it still the Bundesrepublik’s National Anthem?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    TOPPING said:

    This is bad. What is it about the culture of members of the CBI that make them more inclined to indulge in this kind of behaviour?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/03/revealed-new-claims-of-sexual-misconduct-and-toxic-culture-at-cbi

    Are they mostly of Pakistani heritage perhaps?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,996
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






    Or more they are fleeing to places they can more easily afford to buy a house and raise a family.

    Prices in the South, Arizona and most of the MidWest for houses are a fraction of those in California, Seattle, Boston, New York and most of the North East
    Yes, but it seems house prices are lower in the South, etc, because everyone there has died?

    The correlation is fabulously weird

    People moving from strongly democrat states into republican strongholds is going to do some interesting things to elections, a bit like the flight from cities in the UK during Covid (which seems to be partially reversing now). Unless those leaving blue states are the republican minority of course.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    carnforth said:

    Starmer says, today:

    "But the vast majority of sexual abuse cases do not involved those of ethnic minorities and so I am all for clamping down on any kind of case, but if we are going to be serious we have to be honest about what the overlook is."

    No shit, Sherlock, that's how minorities and majorities work. Wonder if he knows the per-capita rates and won't say, or doesn't know.

    Though the amount of abuse by white and Afro-Caribean priests, and in private schools and the cover ups around it has also been quite an issue. Hindu priests too.

    The Catholic Church in particular would have had a lot banged up for failing to report, but not only them. BBC producers, people working in schools etc.

    Mandatory reporting is fine. It won't just be taxi drivers caught in the net, assuming there are adequate police resources attached.
  • This does not reflect well on Sweden.

    The Swedish police are pressing ahead with plans to deport an elderly British woman with Alzheimer’s who cannot walk or talk, in a Brexit-related case that has been described as “deeply shocking” by the Labour MP Hilary Benn.

    Kathleen Poole, a 74-year-old widow, moved to Sweden from Macclesfield 18 years ago to be close to her son Wayne and his Swedish wife, Angelica, and their four children.

    But 11 years ago she developed dementia and has been in a care home near her family for the past 10 years and is now so incapacitated she cannot feed herself or go to the bathroom unaided.

    An application made on her behalf by her family has been rejected because she does not have an up-to-date passport or financial statements to demonstrate her right to be in the country post-Brexit.

    The family told the authorities they did not have an updated passport because their mother is bedridden and does not travel.

    They had hoped politicians would step in to stop the deportation last month after the case received international press attention and after campaigners at British in Europe pointed out that the EU went to great lengths to ensure guarantees for all citizens affected through no fault of their own by the UK’s referendum result, with the then Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, declaring in 2017 that “Brexit should not alter the nature of people’s daily lives”.

    But on Friday the family were told by the British embassy in Stockholm that the police had been in touch “pressing” it to find a care home in the UK.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/swedish-police-moving-ahead-plan-deport-uk-woman-alzheimers
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440

    TOPPING said:

    This is bad. What is it about the culture of members of the CBI that make them more inclined to indulge in this kind of behaviour?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/03/revealed-new-claims-of-sexual-misconduct-and-toxic-culture-at-cbi

    Are they mostly of Pakistani heritage perhaps?
    Hindu, surely.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    carnforth said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Clearly an idiot, but:

    Who is Lance Forman?
    Pro-Brexit smoked salmon tycoon.
    £649.75 a kilo:

    https://www.formanandfield.com/product/wild-royal-fillet/
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,996
    edited April 2023
    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    I place the blame for the grooming scandal largely on the police, because it was their inaction that lead to a culture of impunity that in my opinion lead to the explosion in these disgusting crimes. As I've said, imagine if it was suddenly secretly legal for everyone over 6 ft to shoplift. Some would insist on paying. Some would openly take advantage. More and more would start to find reasons and moral justifications 'forgot my wallet' for not paying on occasion. Over the course of years, it would become an epidemic. The police and authorities caused the scandal they were trying to avoid.

    The shoplifting analogy carries straight over to 2022 Los Angeles, where the elected public prosecutor said that shoplifting of less than $950 will not be prosecuted, and that the police would be ‘defunded’. Guess what happened next?
    https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/shoplifting-crimes-in-la-are-on-the-rise/
    Passive decriminalisation is one of the worst law and order policies regardless of the topic. It encourages the bad thing to happen without proper regulation, it means you're never 100% certain what you are doing is allowed or not (occasionally the police will go in hard to make an example), and it makes prosecution of the bigger offenders more difficult.

    True of drugs, traffic infringements / speeding / drink driving, low level tax evasion, still sometimes true of abuse within marriage, fox hunting and so on.

    Either make something illegal and enforce it, or fully legalise and regulate it.
    I'm not sure drink driving is much of a grey area, enforcement-wise.
    Not in the UK but in many countries in Europe it's a lottery. A lot of blind eyes turned.

    +low level tax evasion and baksheesh are tolerated to excessive levels in a lot of countries and undermine the rule of law completely.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/2b/ded3ody4cwe4.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/xa/asbf278oppg1.jpeg" alt="" />

    It’s all to do with the Covid response and crime levels. People are leaving LA, SF, Portland, and NY; heading to mostly Miami and Austin.
    It's all to do with personal tax levels, IMHO.

    The places people are leaving have high taxes, and the places they are going have low taxes.

    In my part of California, you pay:

    13% state income tax (which also applies to capital gains)
    11% sales tax
    Property tax based on the purchase price of your property. If you buy a $1m house, you will be paying c. $18,000/year in annual property taxes.

    By contrast, in Nevada there are dramatically lower property taxes and no state income tax.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    ydoethur said:

    Follow up on US life expectancy:

    Much has been made of the declining life expectancy in the US.

    The reality is regional. Think of the US as two countries:

    Some blue counties with increasing life-expectancy better than 🇯🇵 (84) & many red counties with plummeting life expectancy worse than 🇷🇺 (71).
    1/




    https://twitter.com/nickmmark/status/1642548933795909632?s=20

    That map puzzles me. Sure, the Deep South having low life expectancy is what you would expect, but given the amount of gun violence in America’s cities it’s a bit startling to see most of them have higher life expectancy.

    Doubly so given that’s where most of the population live, so if anything you would expect American life expectancy to skew higher, masking a decline for certain groups and areas.

    What’s the nuance?
    Activity levels. Cities force you to walk more.
    Not sure you have ever been to a US city in that case. Most of those I have visited with the exception of New York seem to actively discourage walking. Indeed the idea of walking anywhere in Los Angeles would be met with incredulity. Bear in mind this is the country that has drive through everything. Including drive through combined liquor and gun stores.
    You think everyone in LA owns a car. V naive.
    Try walking anywhere of any distance in LA. I dare you.
    I've walked from LAX to Santa Monica Pier. Only one freeway to find a way over or under.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Clearly an idiot, but:

    Who is Lance Forman?
    A former Brexit Party/Tory MEP, former SPAD to Peter Lilley.

    A bit of a roaster.
    So I was pretty close with 'idiot?' Fair enough.
    What was it David Cameron (pbuh) said about twitter?

    Forman is considered to be the most prolific Twitter user of all MEPs, having the highest total number of tweets. A number of Forman's tweets have gone viral such as claims that Jeremy Corbyn is a Nazi, that Islamophobia in the Conservative party is "made up by the left", that the "British taxpayer has paid for a nice fleet" of Mercedes for MEPs in Brussels (while posting a picture of what was actually a Skoda) as well as sharing a video of himself apparently unable to operate the voting machines at the EU parliament, which he claimed was evidence that there was "no democracy here".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






    Except Florida doesn't fit that theory.
    Leon seems oddly susceptible to the whole correlation/causation fallacy thing.
    I haven't mentioned causation (except as a joke - all the houses in Tennessee are cheap coz everyone dies at 34)

    I am merely pointing out an amusing correlation. It reminds me of the famous map of British coalfields and the 2015 Labour vote

    https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/999192623066693632?s=20

    Tho the American correlation is arguably even more interesting. As less obviously explicable (of course there will be Labour voters where there were lots of coal miners)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,996

    This does not reflect well on Sweden.

    The Swedish police are pressing ahead with plans to deport an elderly British woman with Alzheimer’s who cannot walk or talk, in a Brexit-related case that has been described as “deeply shocking” by the Labour MP Hilary Benn.

    Kathleen Poole, a 74-year-old widow, moved to Sweden from Macclesfield 18 years ago to be close to her son Wayne and his Swedish wife, Angelica, and their four children.

    But 11 years ago she developed dementia and has been in a care home near her family for the past 10 years and is now so incapacitated she cannot feed herself or go to the bathroom unaided.

    An application made on her behalf by her family has been rejected because she does not have an up-to-date passport or financial statements to demonstrate her right to be in the country post-Brexit.

    The family told the authorities they did not have an updated passport because their mother is bedridden and does not travel.

    They had hoped politicians would step in to stop the deportation last month after the case received international press attention and after campaigners at British in Europe pointed out that the EU went to great lengths to ensure guarantees for all citizens affected through no fault of their own by the UK’s referendum result, with the then Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, declaring in 2017 that “Brexit should not alter the nature of people’s daily lives”.

    But on Friday the family were told by the British embassy in Stockholm that the police had been in touch “pressing” it to find a care home in the UK.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/swedish-police-moving-ahead-plan-deport-uk-woman-alzheimers

    It seems at least one other country has the same home office computer says no approach to life that led to windrush.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    This does not reflect well on Sweden.

    The Swedish police are pressing ahead with plans to deport an elderly British woman with Alzheimer’s who cannot walk or talk, in a Brexit-related case that has been described as “deeply shocking” by the Labour MP Hilary Benn.

    Kathleen Poole, a 74-year-old widow, moved to Sweden from Macclesfield 18 years ago to be close to her son Wayne and his Swedish wife, Angelica, and their four children.

    But 11 years ago she developed dementia and has been in a care home near her family for the past 10 years and is now so incapacitated she cannot feed herself or go to the bathroom unaided.

    An application made on her behalf by her family has been rejected because she does not have an up-to-date passport or financial statements to demonstrate her right to be in the country post-Brexit.

    The family told the authorities they did not have an updated passport because their mother is bedridden and does not travel.

    They had hoped politicians would step in to stop the deportation last month after the case received international press attention and after campaigners at British in Europe pointed out that the EU went to great lengths to ensure guarantees for all citizens affected through no fault of their own by the UK’s referendum result, with the then Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, declaring in 2017 that “Brexit should not alter the nature of people’s daily lives”.

    But on Friday the family were told by the British embassy in Stockholm that the police had been in touch “pressing” it to find a care home in the UK.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/swedish-police-moving-ahead-plan-deport-uk-woman-alzheimers

    There's a certain irony that it's their otherwise very liberal policies on migration that are blocking their NATO membership for another two months, when Finland joins tomorrow.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Wasn’t it just a song written about a hundred years before Nazis existed?
    Isn’t it still the Bundesrepublik’s National Anthem?
    Just the third verse, IIRC.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Why are Malcolm and Nigel always having a go at each other? Gets a bit tedious.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087

    Nigelb said:

    Trump: “Ultimately [Putin] is going to take over all of Ukraine”*
    https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1642549167619702784


    *"If I'm re-elected."

    The thing that I'm noticing more and more about Trump and his supporters is how pessimistic and defeatist they all are. It's quite the contrast with the Republican party of Ronald Reagan.
    Reagan had his own fondness for dictators - see for example his support for the murderous Chun Doo-hwan of South Korea.

    But drew the line at playing stooge to Russian autocrats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






    Or more they are fleeing to places they can more easily afford to buy a house and raise a family.

    Prices in the South, Arizona and most of the MidWest for houses are a fraction of those in California, Seattle, Boston, New York and most of the North East
    Yes, but it seems house prices are lower in the South, etc, because everyone there has died?

    The correlation is fabulously weird

    People moving from strongly democrat states into republican strongholds is going to do some interesting things to elections, a bit like the flight from cities in the UK during Covid (which seems to be partially reversing now). Unless those leaving blue states are the republican minority of course.
    When I was in Nashville last year - a boomtown, filling up with New Yorkers and Californians fleeing crime, Covid, homeless, etc - this was a REAL issue. The locals were definitely not happy
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Wasn’t it just a song written about a hundred years before Nazis existed?
    Yes and the third stanza is still the German national anthem I guess it isn't really news that uber-Brexiteers are pretty ignorant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    TimS said:

    This does not reflect well on Sweden.

    The Swedish police are pressing ahead with plans to deport an elderly British woman with Alzheimer’s who cannot walk or talk, in a Brexit-related case that has been described as “deeply shocking” by the Labour MP Hilary Benn.

    Kathleen Poole, a 74-year-old widow, moved to Sweden from Macclesfield 18 years ago to be close to her son Wayne and his Swedish wife, Angelica, and their four children.

    But 11 years ago she developed dementia and has been in a care home near her family for the past 10 years and is now so incapacitated she cannot feed herself or go to the bathroom unaided.

    An application made on her behalf by her family has been rejected because she does not have an up-to-date passport or financial statements to demonstrate her right to be in the country post-Brexit.

    The family told the authorities they did not have an updated passport because their mother is bedridden and does not travel.

    They had hoped politicians would step in to stop the deportation last month after the case received international press attention and after campaigners at British in Europe pointed out that the EU went to great lengths to ensure guarantees for all citizens affected through no fault of their own by the UK’s referendum result, with the then Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, declaring in 2017 that “Brexit should not alter the nature of people’s daily lives”.

    But on Friday the family were told by the British embassy in Stockholm that the police had been in touch “pressing” it to find a care home in the UK.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/swedish-police-moving-ahead-plan-deport-uk-woman-alzheimers

    It seems at least one other country has the same home office computer says no approach to life that led to windrush.
    Computer Says No is a worldwide phenomenon.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    Andy_JS said:

    Why are Malcolm and Nigel always having a go at each other? Gets a bit tedious.

    Other pairings are available for a bit of variety, interspersed with occassional bans.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    This does not reflect well on Sweden.

    The Swedish police are pressing ahead with plans to deport an elderly British woman with Alzheimer’s who cannot walk or talk, in a Brexit-related case that has been described as “deeply shocking” by the Labour MP Hilary Benn.

    Kathleen Poole, a 74-year-old widow, moved to Sweden from Macclesfield 18 years ago to be close to her son Wayne and his Swedish wife, Angelica, and their four children.

    But 11 years ago she developed dementia and has been in a care home near her family for the past 10 years and is now so incapacitated she cannot feed herself or go to the bathroom unaided.

    An application made on her behalf by her family has been rejected because she does not have an up-to-date passport or financial statements to demonstrate her right to be in the country post-Brexit.

    The family told the authorities they did not have an updated passport because their mother is bedridden and does not travel.

    They had hoped politicians would step in to stop the deportation last month after the case received international press attention and after campaigners at British in Europe pointed out that the EU went to great lengths to ensure guarantees for all citizens affected through no fault of their own by the UK’s referendum result, with the then Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, declaring in 2017 that “Brexit should not alter the nature of people’s daily lives”.

    But on Friday the family were told by the British embassy in Stockholm that the police had been in touch “pressing” it to find a care home in the UK.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/swedish-police-moving-ahead-plan-deport-uk-woman-alzheimers

    She let her passport expire when living in a foreign country with family, because she had no intention of ever leaving there?

    One could argue a whole load of things in her favour, but the first rule of living in a foreign country is to never let your passport (or visa) expire.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56






    Except Florida doesn't fit that theory.
    Leon seems oddly susceptible to the whole correlation/causation fallacy thing.
    I haven't mentioned causation (except as a joke - all the houses in Tennessee are cheap coz everyone dies at 34)

    I am merely pointing out an amusing correlation. It reminds me of the famous map of British coalfields and the 2015 Labour vote

    https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/999192623066693632?s=20

    Tho the American correlation is arguably even more interesting. As less obviously explicable (of course there will be Labour voters where there were lots of coal miners)
    Fair enough.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Andy_JS said:

    Why are Malcolm and Nigel always having a go at each other? Gets a bit tedious.

    I'm quite fond of him, actually.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    Sandpit said:

    This does not reflect well on Sweden.

    The Swedish police are pressing ahead with plans to deport an elderly British woman with Alzheimer’s who cannot walk or talk, in a Brexit-related case that has been described as “deeply shocking” by the Labour MP Hilary Benn.

    Kathleen Poole, a 74-year-old widow, moved to Sweden from Macclesfield 18 years ago to be close to her son Wayne and his Swedish wife, Angelica, and their four children.

    But 11 years ago she developed dementia and has been in a care home near her family for the past 10 years and is now so incapacitated she cannot feed herself or go to the bathroom unaided.

    An application made on her behalf by her family has been rejected because she does not have an up-to-date passport or financial statements to demonstrate her right to be in the country post-Brexit.

    The family told the authorities they did not have an updated passport because their mother is bedridden and does not travel.

    They had hoped politicians would step in to stop the deportation last month after the case received international press attention and after campaigners at British in Europe pointed out that the EU went to great lengths to ensure guarantees for all citizens affected through no fault of their own by the UK’s referendum result, with the then Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, declaring in 2017 that “Brexit should not alter the nature of people’s daily lives”.

    But on Friday the family were told by the British embassy in Stockholm that the police had been in touch “pressing” it to find a care home in the UK.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/swedish-police-moving-ahead-plan-deport-uk-woman-alzheimers

    She let her passport expire when living in a foreign country with family, because she had no intention of ever leaving there?

    One could argue a whole load of things in her favour, but the first rule of living in a foreign country is to never let your passport (or visa) expire.
    People with dementia perhaps not great at remembering such rules.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/2b/ded3ody4cwe4.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/xa/asbf278oppg1.jpeg" alt="" />

    It’s all to do with the Covid response and crime levels. People are leaving LA, SF, Portland, and NY; heading to mostly Miami and Austin.
    It's all to do with personal tax levels, IMHO.

    The places people are leaving have high taxes, and the places they are going have low taxes.

    In my part of California, you pay:

    13% state income tax (which also applies to capital gains)
    11% sales tax
    Property tax based on the purchase price of your property. If you buy a $1m house, you will be paying c. $18,000/year in annual property taxes.

    By contrast, in Nevada there are dramatically lower property taxes and no state income tax.
    I’ll go with a fair bit of both. If you can WFH from Nevada or Texas, and don’t need to be in Silicon Valley five days a week, then of course you’ll leave.

    Policymakers and large companies are belatedly realising, that people really hated spending two or three or four hours a day commuting.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    As predicted.
    Pretty sure this waltz has gone on in the lead up to most recent Scottish elections (though not usually this far out): SCons suggest tactical voting coalition, SLab state they wouldn’t touch it with a shitty stick, SCons moan on about being the only party who’ll protect the Union.


    All very predictable - I wonder how many seats stay SNP as a result.
    Nah, Labour needs to win over yes voters if it wants to win 20+ seats. Publicly cosying up to the Tories would undermine this... and besides, a lot of SCON voters in the Central Belt seem to have gone over to Labour anyway.
    Of course a number of elderly Tory voters will have died over the past few years and been replaced by younger, Labour-inclined people.
    Gosh if there was anything in that 'theory' the Tories would have long been extinct.
    Keep trying.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    Sandpit said:

    This does not reflect well on Sweden.

    The Swedish police are pressing ahead with plans to deport an elderly British woman with Alzheimer’s who cannot walk or talk, in a Brexit-related case that has been described as “deeply shocking” by the Labour MP Hilary Benn.

    Kathleen Poole, a 74-year-old widow, moved to Sweden from Macclesfield 18 years ago to be close to her son Wayne and his Swedish wife, Angelica, and their four children.

    But 11 years ago she developed dementia and has been in a care home near her family for the past 10 years and is now so incapacitated she cannot feed herself or go to the bathroom unaided.

    An application made on her behalf by her family has been rejected because she does not have an up-to-date passport or financial statements to demonstrate her right to be in the country post-Brexit.

    The family told the authorities they did not have an updated passport because their mother is bedridden and does not travel.

    They had hoped politicians would step in to stop the deportation last month after the case received international press attention and after campaigners at British in Europe pointed out that the EU went to great lengths to ensure guarantees for all citizens affected through no fault of their own by the UK’s referendum result, with the then Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, declaring in 2017 that “Brexit should not alter the nature of people’s daily lives”.

    But on Friday the family were told by the British embassy in Stockholm that the police had been in touch “pressing” it to find a care home in the UK.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/swedish-police-moving-ahead-plan-deport-uk-woman-alzheimers

    She let her passport expire when living in a foreign country with family, because she had no intention of ever leaving there?

    One could argue a whole load of things in her favour, but the first rule of living in a foreign country is to never let your passport (or visa) expire.
    People with dementia perhaps not great at remembering such rules.....
    If she were living on her own I’d give her that, but she’s living with family who should know the rules.

    In this case, the police are ‘pressing’ her to leave voluntarily, because the authorities know both that she’s a burden on the state, and that it will be international news if they try and forcibly deport her.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,996
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/2b/ded3ody4cwe4.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/xa/asbf278oppg1.jpeg" alt="" />

    It’s all to do with the Covid response and crime levels. People are leaving LA, SF, Portland, and NY; heading to mostly Miami and Austin.
    It's all to do with personal tax levels, IMHO.

    The places people are leaving have high taxes, and the places they are going have low taxes.

    In my part of California, you pay:

    13% state income tax (which also applies to capital gains)
    11% sales tax
    Property tax based on the purchase price of your property. If you buy a $1m house, you will be paying c. $18,000/year in annual property taxes.

    By contrast, in Nevada there are dramatically lower property taxes and no state income tax.
    I’ll go with a fair bit of both. If you can WFH from Nevada or Texas, and don’t need to be in Silicon Valley five days a week, then of course you’ll leave.

    Policymakers and large companies are belatedly realising, that people really hated spending two or three or four hours a day commuting.
    In my day job I advise businesses on location, and the US is really unique in the way personal and property tax levels (as opposed to corporate taxes) have such a material effect. In the post-Covid WFH world this has definitely become more acute. It's also messing up a lot of companies' careful state tax planning that relied on them avoiding nexus in lots of states.

    In other countries it's a consideration - Switzerland's cantons being an example, German municipal taxes another - but much less marked.

    The US has this great advantage of federalism that hundreds of millions of people and thousands of businesses can simply jump in a car and move somewhere with the same language, currency and culture but different laws on almost everything: a giant 50 state experiment. The EU at least within Schengen is closer to that than it used to be, with the Euro and free movement, but language and culture are still much bigger barriers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    @Sandpit

    Shoplifting is prosecuted in LA - it's just (wrongly imo) done so as a misdemeanor.

    Why?

    Because California has a strict "three strikes and you're out" law.

    Three felonies and it's life without parole.

    The result of which was that every shoplifting case in California was going to jury trial - what's the point in a plea bargain, when there's nothing to bargain for: that packet of cigarettes you stole is a felony and you're going to jail forever.

    And juries weren't convicting. The defense was always: "look into your heart, should the defendant go to prison for life for this minor crime".

    And so (lower value) shoplifting was reduced to a misdemeanor, because then at least you could give people community service. And if people didn't turn up for community service, then that was a felony.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    This does not reflect well on Sweden.

    The Swedish police are pressing ahead with plans to deport an elderly British woman with Alzheimer’s who cannot walk or talk, in a Brexit-related case that has been described as “deeply shocking” by the Labour MP Hilary Benn.

    Kathleen Poole, a 74-year-old widow, moved to Sweden from Macclesfield 18 years ago to be close to her son Wayne and his Swedish wife, Angelica, and their four children.

    But 11 years ago she developed dementia and has been in a care home near her family for the past 10 years and is now so incapacitated she cannot feed herself or go to the bathroom unaided.

    An application made on her behalf by her family has been rejected because she does not have an up-to-date passport or financial statements to demonstrate her right to be in the country post-Brexit.

    The family told the authorities they did not have an updated passport because their mother is bedridden and does not travel.

    They had hoped politicians would step in to stop the deportation last month after the case received international press attention and after campaigners at British in Europe pointed out that the EU went to great lengths to ensure guarantees for all citizens affected through no fault of their own by the UK’s referendum result, with the then Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, declaring in 2017 that “Brexit should not alter the nature of people’s daily lives”.

    But on Friday the family were told by the British embassy in Stockholm that the police had been in touch “pressing” it to find a care home in the UK.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/swedish-police-moving-ahead-plan-deport-uk-woman-alzheimers

    She let her passport expire when living in a foreign country with family, because she had no intention of ever leaving there?

    One could argue a whole load of things in her favour, but the first rule of living in a foreign country is to never let your passport (or visa) expire.
    People with dementia perhaps not great at remembering such rules.....
    If she were living on her own I’d give her that, but she’s living with family who should know the rules.

    In this case, the police are ‘pressing’ her to leave voluntarily, because the authorities know both that she’s a burden on the state, and that it will be international news if they try and forcibly deport her.
    I suspect it would have been easy for her to get the Swedish version of settled status, but her relatives didn't do it for her in time. Now the programme has presumably elapsed.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,996
    felix said:

    felix said:

    As predicted.
    Pretty sure this waltz has gone on in the lead up to most recent Scottish elections (though not usually this far out): SCons suggest tactical voting coalition, SLab state they wouldn’t touch it with a shitty stick, SCons moan on about being the only party who’ll protect the Union.


    All very predictable - I wonder how many seats stay SNP as a result.
    Nah, Labour needs to win over yes voters if it wants to win 20+ seats. Publicly cosying up to the Tories would undermine this... and besides, a lot of SCON voters in the Central Belt seem to have gone over to Labour anyway.
    Of course a number of elderly Tory voters will have died over the past few years and been replaced by younger, Labour-inclined people.
    Gosh if there was anything in that 'theory' the Tories would have long been extinct.
    Keep trying.
    There is some statistical evidence to suggest that the drivers of partisan support, and therefore the demographic implications, have changed since Brexit. When conservatism was all about preserving the economic status quo people would become progressively more conservative with age, so the hopper would keep replenishing. If it's about cultural beliefs and particularly something identity related like Brexit, then the rules need not apply in the same way.

    Having said that I think economics is now much more salient than in 2016-19 so we may well see reversion to the mean. Some rumblings of that in the wealthy, remain voting but oldish blue wall.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    I place the blame for the grooming scandal largely on the police, because it was their inaction that lead to a culture of impunity that in my opinion lead to the explosion in these disgusting crimes. As I've said, imagine if it was suddenly secretly legal for everyone over 6 ft to shoplift. Some would insist on paying. Some would openly take advantage. More and more would start to find reasons and moral justifications 'forgot my wallet' for not paying on occasion. Over the course of years, it would become an epidemic. The police and authorities caused the scandal they were trying to avoid.

    The shoplifting analogy carries straight over to 2022 Los Angeles, where the elected public prosecutor said that shoplifting of less than $950 will not be prosecuted, and that the police would be ‘defunded’. Guess what happened next?
    https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/shoplifting-crimes-in-la-are-on-the-rise/
    Passive decriminalisation is one of the worst law and order policies regardless of the topic. It encourages the bad thing to happen without proper regulation, it means you're never 100% certain what you are doing is allowed or not (occasionally the police will go in hard to make an example), and it makes prosecution of the bigger offenders more difficult.

    True of drugs, traffic infringements / speeding / drink driving, low level tax evasion, still sometimes true of abuse within marriage, fox hunting and so on.

    Either make something illegal and enforce it, or fully legalise and regulate it.
    I'm not sure drink driving is much of a grey area, enforcement-wise.
    Not in the UK but in many countries in Europe it's a lottery. A lot of blind eyes turned.

    +low level tax evasion and baksheesh are tolerated to excessive levels in a lot of countries and undermine the rule of law completely.
    Almost certain that I ended up driving behind a drink-driver in rural Ireland not so long ago, which was somewhat alarming. They were doing barely 40kph on an 80 speed limit road, and spent a fair amount of time on the wrong side of the road - which notably had a white line down the middle of it. I gave them plenty of space and counted myself lucky there wasn't much traffic in the opposite direction.

    There's still quite a vocal lobby that argues strictly enforcing drink-driving laws would kill off all the remaining rural pubs, and that driving after a "moderate" amount of drink is fine. Self-driving cars can't come soon enough.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    TimS said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    As predicted.
    Pretty sure this waltz has gone on in the lead up to most recent Scottish elections (though not usually this far out): SCons suggest tactical voting coalition, SLab state they wouldn’t touch it with a shitty stick, SCons moan on about being the only party who’ll protect the Union.


    All very predictable - I wonder how many seats stay SNP as a result.
    Nah, Labour needs to win over yes voters if it wants to win 20+ seats. Publicly cosying up to the Tories would undermine this... and besides, a lot of SCON voters in the Central Belt seem to have gone over to Labour anyway.
    Of course a number of elderly Tory voters will have died over the past few years and been replaced by younger, Labour-inclined people.
    Gosh if there was anything in that 'theory' the Tories would have long been extinct.
    Keep trying.
    There is some statistical evidence to suggest that the drivers of partisan support, and therefore the demographic implications, have changed since Brexit. When conservatism was all about preserving the economic status quo people would become progressively more conservative with age, so the hopper would keep replenishing. If it's about cultural beliefs and particularly something identity related like Brexit, then the rules need not apply in the same way.

    Having said that I think economics is now much more salient than in 2016-19 so we may well see reversion to the mean. Some rumblings of that in the wealthy, remain voting but oldish blue wall.
    I wonder how many people think of a change in prime minister as a change in government, almost like a general election is. Might make it easier to vote Tory next time even if you hated Boris.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440
    felix said:

    felix said:

    As predicted.
    Pretty sure this waltz has gone on in the lead up to most recent Scottish elections (though not usually this far out): SCons suggest tactical voting coalition, SLab state they wouldn’t touch it with a shitty stick, SCons moan on about being the only party who’ll protect the Union.


    All very predictable - I wonder how many seats stay SNP as a result.
    Nah, Labour needs to win over yes voters if it wants to win 20+ seats. Publicly cosying up to the Tories would undermine this... and besides, a lot of SCON voters in the Central Belt seem to have gone over to Labour anyway.
    Of course a number of elderly Tory voters will have died over the past few years and been replaced by younger, Labour-inclined people.
    Gosh if there was anything in that 'theory' the Tories would have long been extinct.
    Keep trying.
    I’ve been following HYFUD’s posts for long enough to realise that as people age they are more likely to vote Tory.
    I realise I’m in a minority in not doing so.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    Local LibDems sending out election literature - by first class stamp - without an imprint on it.

    Oops!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/2b/ded3ody4cwe4.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/xa/asbf278oppg1.jpeg" alt="" />

    It’s all to do with the Covid response and crime levels. People are leaving LA, SF, Portland, and NY; heading to mostly Miami and Austin.
    It's all to do with personal tax levels, IMHO.

    The places people are leaving have high taxes, and the places they are going have low taxes.

    In my part of California, you pay:

    13% state income tax (which also applies to capital gains)
    11% sales tax
    Property tax based on the purchase price of your property. If you buy a $1m house, you will be paying c. $18,000/year in annual property taxes.

    By contrast, in Nevada there are dramatically lower property taxes and no state income tax.
    I’ll go with a fair bit of both. If you can WFH from Nevada or Texas, and don’t need to be in Silicon Valley five days a week, then of course you’ll leave.

    Policymakers and large companies are belatedly realising, that people really hated spending two or three or four hours a day commuting.
    In my day job I advise businesses on location, and the US is really unique in the way personal and property tax levels (as opposed to corporate taxes) have such a material effect. In the post-Covid WFH world this has definitely become more acute. It's also messing up a lot of companies' careful state tax planning that relied on them avoiding nexus in lots of states.

    In other countries it's a consideration - Switzerland's cantons being an example, German municipal taxes another - but much less marked.

    The US has this great advantage of federalism that hundreds of millions of people and thousands of businesses can simply jump in a car and move somewhere with the same language, currency and culture but different laws on almost everything: a giant 50 state experiment. The EU at least within Schengen is closer to that than it used to be, with the Euro and free movement, but language and culture are still much bigger barriers.
    The UK will soon face a major problem with unattached WFH freelancers effing off to Portugal, Spain, Greece to be digital nomads, with residency rights, paying much lower taxes, in the sun

    Look at the tax rate!


    "Remote workers can pay a reduced tax rate of 15 per cent during the first four years of their stay, provided they earn below €600,000 a year. This is instead of the usual 24 per cent rate."

    And note this, it allows Freedom of Movement

    "Remote workers can also apply for a residency card, which grants the ability to travel throughout the EU while living in Spain."

    https://www.euronews.com/travel/2023/01/30/always-wanted-to-move-to-spain-a-new-digital-nomad-visa-could-let-you-stay-for-5-years

    I am sorely tempted
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    carnforth said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    This does not reflect well on Sweden.

    The Swedish police are pressing ahead with plans to deport an elderly British woman with Alzheimer’s who cannot walk or talk, in a Brexit-related case that has been described as “deeply shocking” by the Labour MP Hilary Benn.

    Kathleen Poole, a 74-year-old widow, moved to Sweden from Macclesfield 18 years ago to be close to her son Wayne and his Swedish wife, Angelica, and their four children.

    But 11 years ago she developed dementia and has been in a care home near her family for the past 10 years and is now so incapacitated she cannot feed herself or go to the bathroom unaided.

    An application made on her behalf by her family has been rejected because she does not have an up-to-date passport or financial statements to demonstrate her right to be in the country post-Brexit.

    The family told the authorities they did not have an updated passport because their mother is bedridden and does not travel.

    They had hoped politicians would step in to stop the deportation last month after the case received international press attention and after campaigners at British in Europe pointed out that the EU went to great lengths to ensure guarantees for all citizens affected through no fault of their own by the UK’s referendum result, with the then Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, declaring in 2017 that “Brexit should not alter the nature of people’s daily lives”.

    But on Friday the family were told by the British embassy in Stockholm that the police had been in touch “pressing” it to find a care home in the UK.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/swedish-police-moving-ahead-plan-deport-uk-woman-alzheimers

    She let her passport expire when living in a foreign country with family, because she had no intention of ever leaving there?

    One could argue a whole load of things in her favour, but the first rule of living in a foreign country is to never let your passport (or visa) expire.
    People with dementia perhaps not great at remembering such rules.....
    If she were living on her own I’d give her that, but she’s living with family who should know the rules.

    In this case, the police are ‘pressing’ her to leave voluntarily, because the authorities know both that she’s a burden on the state, and that it will be international news if they try and forcibly deport her.
    I suspect it would have been easy for her to get the Swedish version of settled status, but her relatives didn't do it for her in time. Now the programme has presumably elapsed.
    Yes, perhaps that’s the case, I don’t know the details of this particular one. There would have been a process, which presumably her son also went through as a Brit. But you still never let a passport expire when not in your own country, no matter the situation.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,701
    Here's the DPP calling for a change in law to help child abuse victims from 2013. Shame the Government never acted on it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/04/child-abuse-keir-starmer-prosecute-professionals

    I wonder what that DPP is up to now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440
    edited April 2023
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    As predicted.
    Pretty sure this waltz has gone on in the lead up to most recent Scottish elections (though not usually this far out): SCons suggest tactical voting coalition, SLab state they wouldn’t touch it with a shitty stick, SCons moan on about being the only party who’ll protect the Union.


    All very predictable - I wonder how many seats stay SNP as a result.
    Nah, Labour needs to win over yes voters if it wants to win 20+ seats. Publicly cosying up to the Tories would undermine this... and besides, a lot of SCON voters in the Central Belt seem to have gone over to Labour anyway.
    Of course a number of elderly Tory voters will have died over the past few years and been replaced by younger, Labour-inclined people.
    Gosh if there was anything in that 'theory' the Tories would have long been extinct.
    Keep trying.
    There is some statistical evidence to suggest that the drivers of partisan support, and therefore the demographic implications, have changed since Brexit. When conservatism was all about preserving the economic status quo people would become progressively more conservative with age, so the hopper would keep replenishing. If it's about cultural beliefs and particularly something identity related like Brexit, then the rules need not apply in the same way.

    Having said that I think economics is now much more salient than in 2016-19 so we may well see reversion to the mean. Some rumblings of that in the wealthy, remain voting but oldish blue wall.
    I wonder how many people think of a change in prime minister as a change in government, almost like a general election is. Might make it easier to vote Tory next time even if you hated Boris.
    Not until he’s out of the Commons. And not coming back!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    edited April 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    @Sandpit

    Shoplifting is prosecuted in LA - it's just (wrongly imo) done so as a misdemeanor.

    Why?

    Because California has a strict "three strikes and you're out" law.

    Three felonies and it's life without parole.

    The result of which was that every shoplifting case in California was going to jury trial - what's the point in a plea bargain, when there's nothing to bargain for: that packet of cigarettes you stole is a felony and you're going to jail forever.

    And juries weren't convicting. The defense was always: "look into your heart, should the defendant go to prison for life for this minor crime".

    And so (lower value) shoplifting was reduced to a misdemeanor, because then at least you could give people community service. And if people didn't turn up for community service, then that was a felony.

    So you’ve already got two felonies on your record, and think that robbing a packet of cigarettes is worth being done for the third one?

    IIRC, the police now have no interest in arresting people for misdemeanors, so hundreds of shops are closing due to the ‘shrinkage’. Is that not correct?

    There’s an interesting case in Texas over the weekend, where someone had his truck stolen and followed it with an AirTag, before getting into a shootout with the thief, in which the thief was killed. He followed it because the police weren’t interested.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/2b/ded3ody4cwe4.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/xa/asbf278oppg1.jpeg" alt="" />

    It’s all to do with the Covid response and crime levels. People are leaving LA, SF, Portland, and NY; heading to mostly Miami and Austin.
    It's all to do with personal tax levels, IMHO.

    The places people are leaving have high taxes, and the places they are going have low taxes.

    In my part of California, you pay:

    13% state income tax (which also applies to capital gains)
    11% sales tax
    Property tax based on the purchase price of your property. If you buy a $1m house, you will be paying c. $18,000/year in annual property taxes.

    By contrast, in Nevada there are dramatically lower property taxes and no state income tax.
    I’ll go with a fair bit of both. If you can WFH from Nevada or Texas, and don’t need to be in Silicon Valley five days a week, then of course you’ll leave.

    Policymakers and large companies are belatedly realising, that people really hated spending two or three or four hours a day commuting.
    In my day job I advise businesses on location, and the US is really unique in the way personal and property tax levels (as opposed to corporate taxes) have such a material effect. In the post-Covid WFH world this has definitely become more acute. It's also messing up a lot of companies' careful state tax planning that relied on them avoiding nexus in lots of states.

    In other countries it's a consideration - Switzerland's cantons being an example, German municipal taxes another - but much less marked.

    The US has this great advantage of federalism that hundreds of millions of people and thousands of businesses can simply jump in a car and move somewhere with the same language, currency and culture but different laws on almost everything: a giant 50 state experiment. The EU at least within Schengen is closer to that than it used to be, with the Euro and free movement, but language and culture are still much bigger barriers.
    The UK will soon face a major problem with unattached WFH freelancers effing off to Portugal, Spain, Greece to be digital nomads, with residency rights, paying much lower taxes, in the sun

    Look at the tax rate!


    "Remote workers can pay a reduced tax rate of 15 per cent during the first four years of their stay, provided they earn below €600,000 a year. This is instead of the usual 24 per cent rate."

    And note this, it allows Freedom of Movement

    "Remote workers can also apply for a residency card, which grants the ability to travel throughout the EU while living in Spain."

    https://www.euronews.com/travel/2023/01/30/always-wanted-to-move-to-spain-a-new-digital-nomad-visa-could-let-you-stay-for-5-years

    I am sorely tempted
    That's not FoM; it's just the 90/180 we already have. As long as you like in Spain, and 90/180 elsewhere. Not sure how much checking is going on, but these days some: I've had to fill in forms at AirBNBs in Schengen with EU logos on - so my passport number is being recorded somewhere.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 44% (=)
    CON: 29% (=)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 7% (=)
    GRN: 5% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 29-31 Mar.
    Changes w/ 15-17 Mar.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,372

    Sean_F said:

    Morning all! I agree with @Heathener - the public mood is mutinous. And the latest Tory obscenity is the attack on British men of Pakistani heritage.

    Yes, we have a few examples of Pakistani "grooming gangs" which the authorities ignored. But she's basically just given all the white men who do this the green light to not be suspected.

    They *can't* be a nonce. They have white skin. Just like Jimmy Saville . This is crayon politics aimed at genuinely ignorant people who have had this weaponised by certain newspapers as a stick to beat anyone with funny skin. Or anyone who actually has a faith unlike the ignorant white racist.

    Before anyone says I am being exclusionary, I am not. Some heinous acts have been carried out by British men of Pakistani heritage. As well as by white men of non-Pakistani heritage. Personally I think we should go after criminals - hard to do when the government have gutted the justice system.

    I feel for you

    an Asian PM and and Asian home secretary so you cant cry racist.

    You must be gutted.
    Laughable. This is a policy written in crayon to stoke racism. BTW "Asian" is itself racist when you are claiming that a Hindu PM and an Indian-heritage HS are the same as people of Pakistani origin.

    Can't be racist? You ever heard Indians and Pakistanis going at each other? This is someone from one heritage branding people of a different heritage to all be perverts. It is *inherently racist.

    Growing up in Rochdale in the 1980s, "paki" what white person shorthand for all the Asians in the town. Despite the reality that we had sizable communities from India. Kashmir. Bangladesh. And yes Pakistan. Branding anyone with brown skin as a unitary group - "Asian" in your case - is as ignorant as my Gran calling the Indian family next door "the Pakis"

    It is 2023. Really sad to read that level of ignorance is live and well. Then again we know this - that policy is aimed square at them.
    Ive sat in rooms with hindus sikhs and buddhists and what they say about the muslims would have me put in jail if I said it.

    And thats the point, you and your pastey faced cohorts run around yelling racism when there is no equal application of the law and all that counts is which group meets your virtue signalling twaddle this week.

    So having experienced Asian on Asian racism yourself - as I have - why have you said that the HS can't be racist towards a different Asian heritage?

    You mention equal application of the law. Growing up in Rochdale the local monster was Cyril Smith. Who got away with it. In more recent times the monsters have been Pakistani heritage. Who got away with it.

    If inbuilt racism is the reason why we don't apply the law equally, why do we keep having appalling cases where mass offenders eventually get caught? If racism is why the Pakistani heritage gang members took so long to get caught, was it also racism that the same system ignored Smith?

    Not the smartest thing you have ever posted.
    It was plain that there was a very great reluctance on the part of the authorities to deal with the concerns raised by Ann Cryer and Sarah Champion due to its being “ a cultural matter.”

    But overall, I’ve reached the conclusion that too many people in authority really are unbothered by child abuse, unless it’s done to their own children.
    It's very sad, Britons are far more interested in animals than children.
    Lack of resources explains how cases get missed, and warnings don't get followed up, by overworked police and social workers.

    But, lack of resources never explains how people in a position to prevent such abuse, and who are well aware of it, choose nonetheless to turn a blind eye to it. Personal evil is the better explanation.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978

    ydoethur said:

    Wow



    But the hypocrisy




    Clearly an idiot, but:

    Who is Lance Forman?
    A former Brexit Party/Tory MEP, former SPAD to Peter Lilley.

    A bit of a roaster.
    Fish- and bullshitmonger.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Scott_xP said:

    Downing Street has acknowledged that new post-Brexit “processes” contributed to issues at the Port of Dover over the weekend.

    The prime minister’s official spokesman said he was aware that French border officials were “inspecting and stamping every single passport”, as is the case at all European borders for arrivals from outside the bloc.


    Wow, inspecting every passport. They are behaving as if they are applying standard practice to entrants from a third countr…. oh, wait.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Sandpit

    Shoplifting is prosecuted in LA - it's just (wrongly imo) done so as a misdemeanor.

    Why?

    Because California has a strict "three strikes and you're out" law.

    Three felonies and it's life without parole.

    The result of which was that every shoplifting case in California was going to jury trial - what's the point in a plea bargain, when there's nothing to bargain for: that packet of cigarettes you stole is a felony and you're going to jail forever.

    And juries weren't convicting. The defense was always: "look into your heart, should the defendant go to prison for life for this minor crime".

    And so (lower value) shoplifting was reduced to a misdemeanor, because then at least you could give people community service. And if people didn't turn up for community service, then that was a felony.

    So you’ve already got two felonies on your record, and think that robbing a packet of cigarettes is worth being done for the third one?

    IIRC, the police now have no interest in arresting people for misdemeanors, so hundreds of shops are closing due to the ‘shrinkage’. Is that not correct?

    There’s an interesting case in Texas over the weekend, where someone had his truck stolen and followed it with an AirTag, before getting into a shootout with the thief, in which the thief was killed. He followed it because the police weren’t interested.
    Can’t imagine a rural Texas jury would convict! Unless the killer was black or Hispanic,and the thief was white.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992

    Wow, inspecting every passport. They are behaving as if they are applying standard practice to entrants from a third countr…. oh, wait.

    Lord Frost has taken to Twitter yet again to whine about the unfairness of the EU implementing the deal he negotiated.

    Twat
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,872
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/2b/ded3ody4cwe4.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/xa/asbf278oppg1.jpeg" alt="" />

    It’s all to do with the Covid response and crime levels. People are leaving LA, SF, Portland, and NY; heading to mostly Miami and Austin.
    It's all to do with personal tax levels, IMHO.

    The places people are leaving have high taxes, and the places they are going have low taxes.

    In my part of California, you pay:

    13% state income tax (which also applies to capital gains)
    11% sales tax
    Property tax based on the purchase price of your property. If you buy a $1m house, you will be paying c. $18,000/year in annual property taxes.

    By contrast, in Nevada there are dramatically lower property taxes and no state income tax.
    I’ll go with a fair bit of both. If you can WFH from Nevada or Texas, and don’t need to be in Silicon Valley five days a week, then of course you’ll leave.

    Policymakers and large companies are belatedly realising, that people really hated spending two or three or four hours a day commuting.
    In my day job I advise businesses on location, and the US is really unique in the way personal and property tax levels (as opposed to corporate taxes) have such a material effect. In the post-Covid WFH world this has definitely become more acute. It's also messing up a lot of companies' careful state tax planning that relied on them avoiding nexus in lots of states.

    In other countries it's a consideration - Switzerland's cantons being an example, German municipal taxes another - but much less marked.

    The US has this great advantage of federalism that hundreds of millions of people and thousands of businesses can simply jump in a car and move somewhere with the same language, currency and culture but different laws on almost everything: a giant 50 state experiment. The EU at least within Schengen is closer to that than it used to be, with the Euro and free movement, but language and culture are still much bigger barriers.
    The UK will soon face a major problem with unattached WFH freelancers effing off to Portugal, Spain, Greece to be digital nomads, with residency rights, paying much lower taxes, in the sun

    Look at the tax rate!


    "Remote workers can pay a reduced tax rate of 15 per cent during the first four years of their stay, provided they earn below €600,000 a year. This is instead of the usual 24 per cent rate."

    And note this, it allows Freedom of Movement

    "Remote workers can also apply for a residency card, which grants the ability to travel throughout the EU while living in Spain."

    https://www.euronews.com/travel/2023/01/30/always-wanted-to-move-to-spain-a-new-digital-nomad-visa-could-let-you-stay-for-5-years

    I am sorely tempted
    A lot of companies that allow wfh have it written into the contract that you can work from abroad more than a small number of days a year. Presumably it causes issues with payroll
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Scott_xP said:

    Wow, inspecting every passport. They are behaving as if they are applying standard practice to entrants from a third countr…. oh, wait.

    Lord Frost has taken to Twitter yet again to whine about the unfairness of the EU implementing the deal he negotiated.

    Twat
    I just read it, and he doesn't whine at all, in fact goes to lengths not to:

    https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1642865876381605888

    Telling porkies again, Scott.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Morning all! I agree with @Heathener - the public mood is mutinous. And the latest Tory obscenity is the attack on British men of Pakistani heritage.

    Yes, we have a few examples of Pakistani "grooming gangs" which the authorities ignored. But she's basically just given all the white men who do this the green light to not be suspected.

    They *can't* be a nonce. They have white skin. Just like Jimmy Saville . This is crayon politics aimed at genuinely ignorant people who have had this weaponised by certain newspapers as a stick to beat anyone with funny skin. Or anyone who actually has a faith unlike the ignorant white racist.

    Before anyone says I am being exclusionary, I am not. Some heinous acts have been carried out by British men of Pakistani heritage. As well as by white men of non-Pakistani heritage. Personally I think we should go after criminals - hard to do when the government have gutted the justice system.

    I feel for you

    an Asian PM and and Asian home secretary so you cant cry racist.

    You must be gutted.
    Laughable. This is a policy written in crayon to stoke racism. BTW "Asian" is itself racist when you are claiming that a Hindu PM and an Indian-heritage HS are the same as people of Pakistani origin.

    Can't be racist? You ever heard Indians and Pakistanis going at each other? This is someone from one heritage branding people of a different heritage to all be perverts. It is *inherently racist.

    Growing up in Rochdale in the 1980s, "paki" what white person shorthand for all the Asians in the town. Despite the reality that we had sizable communities from India. Kashmir. Bangladesh. And yes Pakistan. Branding anyone with brown skin as a unitary group - "Asian" in your case - is as ignorant as my Gran calling the Indian family next door "the Pakis"

    It is 2023. Really sad to read that level of ignorance is live and well. Then again we know this - that policy is aimed square at them.
    Ive sat in rooms with hindus sikhs and buddhists and what they say about the muslims would have me put in jail if I said it.

    And thats the point, you and your pastey faced cohorts run around yelling racism when there is no equal application of the law and all that counts is which group meets your virtue signalling twaddle this week.

    So having experienced Asian on Asian racism yourself - as I have - why have you said that the HS can't be racist towards a different Asian heritage?

    You mention equal application of the law. Growing up in Rochdale the local monster was Cyril Smith. Who got away with it. In more recent times the monsters have been Pakistani heritage. Who got away with it.

    If inbuilt racism is the reason why we don't apply the law equally, why do we keep having appalling cases where mass offenders eventually get caught? If racism is why the Pakistani heritage gang members took so long to get caught, was it also racism that the same system ignored Smith?

    Not the smartest thing you have ever posted.
    It was plain that there was a very great reluctance on the part of the authorities to deal with the concerns raised by Ann Cryer and Sarah Champion due to its being “ a cultural matter.”

    But overall, I’ve reached the conclusion that too many people in authority really are unbothered by child abuse, unless it’s done to their own children.
    It's very sad, Britons are far more interested in animals than children.
    We all have different priorities and humanity has had a malign effect on everything else on the planet. Unsurprising that some people want to do what they can to try to rectify that. After centuries of experience the corrupt and the greedy and the downright evil are still rising to the top, no lessons ever really learned.
    Different priorities is not justification for turning a blind-eye to child abuse.
    There is no justification to turning a blind eye to cruelty and abuse wherever and whenever it occurs.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Morning all! I agree with @Heathener - the public mood is mutinous. And the latest Tory obscenity is the attack on British men of Pakistani heritage.

    Yes, we have a few examples of Pakistani "grooming gangs" which the authorities ignored. But she's basically just given all the white men who do this the green light to not be suspected.

    They *can't* be a nonce. They have white skin. Just like Jimmy Saville . This is crayon politics aimed at genuinely ignorant people who have had this weaponised by certain newspapers as a stick to beat anyone with funny skin. Or anyone who actually has a faith unlike the ignorant white racist.

    Before anyone says I am being exclusionary, I am not. Some heinous acts have been carried out by British men of Pakistani heritage. As well as by white men of non-Pakistani heritage. Personally I think we should go after criminals - hard to do when the government have gutted the justice system.

    I feel for you

    an Asian PM and and Asian home secretary so you cant cry racist.

    You must be gutted.
    Laughable. This is a policy written in crayon to stoke racism. BTW "Asian" is itself racist when you are claiming that a Hindu PM and an Indian-heritage HS are the same as people of Pakistani origin.

    Can't be racist? You ever heard Indians and Pakistanis going at each other? This is someone from one heritage branding people of a different heritage to all be perverts. It is *inherently racist.

    Growing up in Rochdale in the 1980s, "paki" what white person shorthand for all the Asians in the town. Despite the reality that we had sizable communities from India. Kashmir. Bangladesh. And yes Pakistan. Branding anyone with brown skin as a unitary group - "Asian" in your case - is as ignorant as my Gran calling the Indian family next door "the Pakis"

    It is 2023. Really sad to read that level of ignorance is live and well. Then again we know this - that policy is aimed square at them.
    Ive sat in rooms with hindus sikhs and buddhists and what they say about the muslims would have me put in jail if I said it.

    And thats the point, you and your pastey faced cohorts run around yelling racism when there is no equal application of the law and all that counts is which group meets your virtue signalling twaddle this week.

    So having experienced Asian on Asian racism yourself - as I have - why have you said that the HS can't be racist towards a different Asian heritage?

    You mention equal application of the law. Growing up in Rochdale the local monster was Cyril Smith. Who got away with it. In more recent times the monsters have been Pakistani heritage. Who got away with it.

    If inbuilt racism is the reason why we don't apply the law equally, why do we keep having appalling cases where mass offenders eventually get caught? If racism is why the Pakistani heritage gang members took so long to get caught, was it also racism that the same system ignored Smith?

    Not the smartest thing you have ever posted.
    It was plain that there was a very great reluctance on the part of the authorities to deal with the concerns raised by Ann Cryer and Sarah Champion due to its being “ a cultural matter.”

    But overall, I’ve reached the conclusion that too many people in authority really are unbothered by child abuse, unless it’s done to their own children.
    It's very sad, Britons are far more interested in animals than children.
    Have you ever stopped to ponder why that might be?
    Yes, it's because we're a misanthropic and socially uneasy lot who don't like other people very much - we find it much easier to project our emotions onto animals, than to our fellow man, and anthropomorphise them.

    It's why the RSPCA was set up decades before the NSPCC, why caning was still allowed into the 1990s and why care home abuse (still) goes on today with a shrug.
    Sounds suspiciously like slagging off the majority of the British people to me.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    edited April 2023
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/2b/ded3ody4cwe4.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/xa/asbf278oppg1.jpeg" alt="" />

    It’s all to do with the Covid response and crime levels. People are leaving LA, SF, Portland, and NY; heading to mostly Miami and Austin.
    It's all to do with personal tax levels, IMHO.

    The places people are leaving have high taxes, and the places they are going have low taxes.

    In my part of California, you pay:

    13% state income tax (which also applies to capital gains)
    11% sales tax
    Property tax based on the purchase price of your property. If you buy a $1m house, you will be paying c. $18,000/year in annual property taxes.

    By contrast, in Nevada there are dramatically lower property taxes and no state income tax.
    I’ll go with a fair bit of both. If you can WFH from Nevada or Texas, and don’t need to be in Silicon Valley five days a week, then of course you’ll leave.

    Policymakers and large companies are belatedly realising, that people really hated spending two or three or four hours a day commuting.
    In my day job I advise businesses on location, and the US is really unique in the way personal and property tax levels (as opposed to corporate taxes) have such a material effect. In the post-Covid WFH world this has definitely become more acute. It's also messing up a lot of companies' careful state tax planning that relied on them avoiding nexus in lots of states.

    In other countries it's a consideration - Switzerland's cantons being an example, German municipal taxes another - but much less marked.

    The US has this great advantage of federalism that hundreds of millions of people and thousands of businesses can simply jump in a car and move somewhere with the same language, currency and culture but different laws on almost everything: a giant 50 state experiment. The EU at least within Schengen is closer to that than it used to be, with the Euro and free movement, but language and culture are still much bigger barriers.
    The UK will soon face a major problem with unattached WFH freelancers effing off to Portugal, Spain, Greece to be digital nomads, with residency rights, paying much lower taxes, in the sun

    Look at the tax rate!


    "Remote workers can pay a reduced tax rate of 15 per cent during the first four years of their stay, provided they earn below €600,000 a year. This is instead of the usual 24 per cent rate."

    And note this, it allows Freedom of Movement

    "Remote workers can also apply for a residency card, which grants the ability to travel throughout the EU while living in Spain."

    https://www.euronews.com/travel/2023/01/30/always-wanted-to-move-to-spain-a-new-digital-nomad-visa-could-let-you-stay-for-5-years

    I am sorely tempted
    A lot of companies that allow wfh have it written into the contract that you can work from abroad more than a small number of days a year. Presumably it causes issues with payroll
    Correct. You would have to get your employer to agree to employ you in the foreign country, with an employment contract compliant to the local employment laws, and a separate payroll.

    However, there are various service companies that will handle that sort of thing for you, for a modest fee.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,996
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Look at this truly bizarre correlation. The first is American counties by life expectancy. The second is American counties by immigration. It seems Americans are fleeing the places where they live longest, so they can go to places where they die at 56

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/2b/ded3ody4cwe4.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/xa/asbf278oppg1.jpeg" alt="" />

    It’s all to do with the Covid response and crime levels. People are leaving LA, SF, Portland, and NY; heading to mostly Miami and Austin.
    It's all to do with personal tax levels, IMHO.

    The places people are leaving have high taxes, and the places they are going have low taxes.

    In my part of California, you pay:

    13% state income tax (which also applies to capital gains)
    11% sales tax
    Property tax based on the purchase price of your property. If you buy a $1m house, you will be paying c. $18,000/year in annual property taxes.

    By contrast, in Nevada there are dramatically lower property taxes and no state income tax.
    I’ll go with a fair bit of both. If you can WFH from Nevada or Texas, and don’t need to be in Silicon Valley five days a week, then of course you’ll leave.

    Policymakers and large companies are belatedly realising, that people really hated spending two or three or four hours a day commuting.
    In my day job I advise businesses on location, and the US is really unique in the way personal and property tax levels (as opposed to corporate taxes) have such a material effect. In the post-Covid WFH world this has definitely become more acute. It's also messing up a lot of companies' careful state tax planning that relied on them avoiding nexus in lots of states.

    In other countries it's a consideration - Switzerland's cantons being an example, German municipal taxes another - but much less marked.

    The US has this great advantage of federalism that hundreds of millions of people and thousands of businesses can simply jump in a car and move somewhere with the same language, currency and culture but different laws on almost everything: a giant 50 state experiment. The EU at least within Schengen is closer to that than it used to be, with the Euro and free movement, but language and culture are still much bigger barriers.
    The UK will soon face a major problem with unattached WFH freelancers effing off to Portugal, Spain, Greece to be digital nomads, with residency rights, paying much lower taxes, in the sun

    Look at the tax rate!


    "Remote workers can pay a reduced tax rate of 15 per cent during the first four years of their stay, provided they earn below €600,000 a year. This is instead of the usual 24 per cent rate."

    And note this, it allows Freedom of Movement

    "Remote workers can also apply for a residency card, which grants the ability to travel throughout the EU while living in Spain."

    https://www.euronews.com/travel/2023/01/30/always-wanted-to-move-to-spain-a-new-digital-nomad-visa-could-let-you-stay-for-5-years

    I am sorely tempted
    There is a golden opportunity to do something helpful for UK investment when (and its a matter of when not if) we reform the non d rules.

    Currently if you meet the archaic definition of non domiciled you pay tax on a remittance basis, which actively incentivises rich people not to bring money into the UK. Do away with that and introduce a new low tax regime for foreign entrepreneurs / digital nomads for their first 2 or 3 tax years here. Extend the holiday period for people investing more than say a million in UK assets.

    Labour should introduce this once in power. It’s pro business yet at the same time gets rid of one of our most peculiar and unfair tax rules.
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