Categories
Options
GE2019 CON voters much more likely to switch to LAB than vice versa – politicalbetting.com
GE2019 CON voters much more likely to switch to LAB than vice versa – politicalbetting.com
I really like this polling question which I have seen before but not for a long time. The format gives us a sense of the direction of travel and potential for tactical voting
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
But if I've read them right, 56% of people say they would probably not, or would never, consider voting Conservative. And 40% say the same about Labour.
I find that quite shocking. Is our country really so divided? How does that compare with other countries? (OK, so comparisons are difficult with most other countries where there are more than two major parties, but how do we compare with the US on this metric?)
And then I stop and realise I'm being brazenly hypocritical because I would have probably answered in such a way that I would have been included in either the 56% or the 40%. How many other PBers fall into one or other of those two categories?
Does anyone else share my concern...?
The hatred towards the Conservatives is continuing unabated. If you doubt this, go out into the streets and listen.
I've never known anything like it. A seachange has occurred. They are going to get hammered at the next General Election.
I would never vote for this current bunch of hate-filled immoral Conservatives, but they were not ever thus.
It’s absolutely fine to have this view.
But you state it day after day. No evidence, no data to support it. Just a statement of opinion.
You may well be right (personally I suspect a hung Parliament with a labour government).
But it’s dull and repetitive to just start every thread with the same statement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
You just refuse to listen to it.
One of the biggest mistakes punters can make in this, as in any field of betting, is recency bias.
We place our trust in past performance, indicators, and entirely spurious 'unprecedented' notions. There is no such thing in betting as unprecedented. It's only unprecedented until it isn't.
The opinion polls are NOT lying. Pay attention everyone.
Yes, we have a few examples of Pakistani "grooming gangs" which the authorities ignored. But she's basically just given all the white men who do this the green light to not be suspected.
They *can't* be a nonce. They have white skin. Just like Jimmy Saville . This is crayon politics aimed at genuinely ignorant people who have had this weaponised by certain newspapers as a stick to beat anyone with funny skin. Or anyone who actually has a faith unlike the ignorant white racist.
Before anyone says I am being exclusionary, I am not. Some heinous acts have been carried out by British men of Pakistani heritage. As well as by white men of non-Pakistani heritage. Personally I think we should go after criminals - hard to do when the government have gutted the justice system.
an Asian PM and and Asian home secretary so you cant cry racist.
You must be gutted.
Can't be racist? You ever heard Indians and Pakistanis going at each other? This is someone from one heritage branding people of a different heritage to all be perverts. It is *inherently racist.
Growing up in Rochdale in the 1980s, "paki" what white person shorthand for all the Asians in the town. Despite the reality that we had sizable communities from India. Kashmir. Bangladesh. And yes Pakistan. Branding anyone with brown skin as a unitary group - "Asian" in your case - is as ignorant as my Gran calling the Indian family next door "the Pakis"
It is 2023. Really sad to read that level of ignorance is live and well. Then again we know this - that policy is aimed square at them.
There are 93 players listed - though the field is now finalised at 88 players.
And no, the five not playing aren't all 1,000. I haven't checked all five - but one player not playing can be laid below 100.
Until a couple of days ago, 103 players were listed - though it was possible for one more player (on top of the 88) to qualify by winning the Texas Open which finished yesterday. But several players not even in the Texas Open were listed - eg Casey - who could have been laid at approx 130. He has now been deleted from the market - presumably settled as a loser.
Indeed Casey and Westwood were listed for weeks despite it being impossible for them to qualify as they were only playing LIV events.
I assume the five further players still listed but not competing will be deleted within the next 24 to 48 hours.
And thats the point, you and your pastey faced cohorts run around yelling racism when there is no equal application of the law and all that counts is which group meets your virtue signalling twaddle this week.
You mention equal application of the law. Growing up in Rochdale the local monster was Cyril Smith. Who got away with it. In more recent times the monsters have been Pakistani heritage. Who got away with it.
If inbuilt racism is the reason why we don't apply the law equally, why do we keep having appalling cases where mass offenders eventually get caught? If racism is why the Pakistani heritage gang members took so long to get caught, was it also racism that the same system ignored Smith?
Not the smartest thing you have ever posted.
I said nothing specific re the HS views but now see youre accusing the her of being a racist ?
why is it that anyone who disagrees with you is automatically a racist ?
Slurry in all senses of the word
It shows of course that you cant handle someone upsetting your ethnic apple cart.
It's the economy, stupid.
More than one million people are in debt to loan sharks, new research suggests, as it emerges illegal money lenders are demanding sexual favours in repayment contracts with borrowers.
Around 2.4 per cent of the population - or 1.08 million people - admitted they had borrowed money from “someone locally who charged interest” who operated outside the conventional banking sector, according to the report by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ).
This is 700,000 more than previously thought and includes middle-income families. The CSJ fears more will fall into the hands of loan sharks due to the looming cost of living crisis. Nearly half (45 per cent) who used illegal money lenders borrowed cash for everyday expenses and household bills.
The CSJ found loan sharks used a range of coercive, violent and underhand tactics to enforce repayments ranging from sex-for-loans and physical assaults to threats to set bullies on borrowers’ children at school.
Some 10 per cent of borrowers have had to provide sex for loans or sign agreements to provide sexual favours if they defaulted, according to the CSJ report which was based on interviews with moneylending investigation teams, a database of 1,200 victims and a poll of 4,000 adults.
One template contract for a £25,000 loan, obtained by an illegal money lending team, said “interest on the loan capital will be rendered in kind with Ms X agreeing to provide sexual gratification for Mr Y. Such services will be available upon request at every loan repayment.”
One victim, Anna, 38, told investigators: “I’m scared of what he can do. I had to sleep with him because I couldn’t afford the payments. I feel unclean…I knew it was wrong, but he took a photo of my daughter coming out of school and sent it to me saying: ‘We now know what she looks like.’”
Repayment of loans can take up to a decade. One example saw a woman borrow £3,000 to pay off her brother’s loan, which was only cleared three years’ later after she had repaid £20,000. Another who borrowed £3,000 paid back £18,000 in instalments over five years.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/21/one-million-debt-loan-sharks-demanding-sexual-favours-repayment/
In his first interview since moving to London, Stephen Smith said most British people would be “indifferent” to Australia getting rid of the monarchy and said it would not damage the countries’ relationship.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inevitable-australia-dump-king-charles-republicans-labor-kwq5b8tl8
The High Commissioner is wrong, at least 52% of Brits will be chuffed that another country is following the UK's lead and getting rid of their unelected rulers.
The big problem for Sunak here is rallying the "not sure" and "yes - probably in the future"
The Lib Dems should take some heart. The data there points to potential for quite a bit of tactical voting in key marginals, which is much easier to analyse and execute these days with AI and sophisticated apps on everyone's phones. The spa towns and stockbroker belt could be vulnerable.
Much has been made of the declining life expectancy in the US.
The reality is regional. Think of the US as two countries:
Some blue counties with increasing life-expectancy better than 🇯🇵 (84) & many red counties with plummeting life expectancy worse than 🇷🇺 (71).
1/
https://twitter.com/nickmmark/status/1642548933795909632?s=20
Doubly so given that’s where most of the population live, so if anything you would expect American life expectancy to skew higher, masking a decline for certain groups and areas.
What’s the nuance?
ETA it is possible demand for kindle devices has been reduced by saturation, less commuting, and use of kindle phone apps.
The 20 year difference in life expectancy (& the fact that parts of the south have worse life expectancy than Turkmenistan!) is shocking.
The causes of this ought to be the leading political issues in every election:
- opioid overdoses
- gun deaths
- access to healthcare
- 4/
https://twitter.com/nickmmark/status/1642556517680545792?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/apr/02/rishi-sunak-says-grooming-gang-crackdown-will-defy-political-correctness
...Only 11% of child sexual abuse cases end with a charge, down from 32% seven years ago, according to official figures, while court delays have grown far worse, leading to some victims waiting years for justice...
The fact is that the entire system is under resourced to deal with the problem.
Now post pandemic with limited commuting Ive reverted back to paper
Starmer intends Labour to be deemed safe to vote for, and he's succeeding. The Labour left might hate it, but facts is facts.
Strange country.
The changes are: needing to wait 10 weeks before a new test after a failed test; no refunds of fees for cancelled tests within two weeks of the test date; electronic rather than paper pass certificates. I suspect the second measure might cause resentment; currently learners can cancel up to two days before and get the fee back.
(People are probably otherwise reading them on their phones with an app that changes the lighting, or listening to audio books)
Mr. Dawning, I still use my Kindle e-reader regularly. The space it saves is rather handy. I much prefer a book to an e-book, but delivery time/space/money do make e-books worth having.
The @nzlabour Prime Minister @chrishipkins can’t define what a woman is.
“I wasn't expecting this question so it's not something I have formulated an answer on.”
Not a good look for a leader whose country is more than 50% women.
#AdultHumanFemale
https://twitter.com/rachaelwongaus/status/1642767391800324098
You do notice the drop at the bottom of the scale though, where post-industrial cities and native enclaves have been devastated by fentanyl and gangs.
The device could be crude but the planning also suggests a level of sophistication. Possible he'd pissed off Putin or gone off message (most likely) or he was a sacrificial lamb for a false-flag but could it also be a rogue Kremlin/FSB sending a message?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/st-petersburg-cafe-wagner-chief-bombed-killing-russian-military-blogger-vladlen-tatarsky-k9pkr060n?
It fuels demand for more healthcare as well as the access problems America already has.
Problems at high-end as well with drug addicted wealthy families and higher proportion of suicides. The gap for young people between 20-40 is very sad.
Not very strong correlated with race either, which is an obsession but not in the data.
There are lots of small sellers online through eBay. And there are other online sellers like Second Story appearing a lot in my twitter and Facebook feeds.
Just as in the UK, it’s the WWC who get ignored.
Or possibly, a message from Prigozhin to somebody else.
At least examiners can presumably not work from home.
It's not complicated. There are more centrist reasons to vote Labour than they were in 2019, and fewer centrist reasons to vote Tory. (This centrist can't think of any). Most voters are centrists.
Centrist rejoiners/EFTAists don't have a party to vote for who could form a government at all.
The tories want to make it a racial issue because that appeals to their feebleminded gammony members.
It's just a question of braving it out if everyone thinks you're on tiktok or playing candy crush.
Child sexual abuse: Call to force residential schools to report allegations
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60574347
The multiple cases of child abuse in residential schools, of all kinds, is what led to the recommendation for making the failure to report abuse a crime.
Whatever follows VVP will emerge from one of those three strands and will have to do deals that satisfy the other two.
I love headers that speak to me, a disaffected 2019 Cons voter, directly. And I know I'm not alone on this board.
I currently couldn't vote for the Cons, nor for Lab.
Cons would have to further detoxify and stop formulating policy for and only for the ERG, while Lab would have to lose the class anger and realise that if they want to appeal to the broad masses they must stop seeing the country in terms of "us" and "them".
Of course they (Lab) can continue with the us and them and eat the rich thing but as we have seen in the past this is a short term strategy as they will find out soon enough that there aren't enough of "them" to provide taxes for "us" and hence will inevitably turn on the next cohort down in wealth. And then the next. And then everyone is paying more which won't be what they will have voted for.
But overall, I’ve reached the conclusion that too many people in authority really are unbothered by child abuse, unless it’s done to their own children.
That's your problem.
I am sure the party membership is pretty ghastly. But so are they all. SKS and generally those round him are not 'eat the Tory' types (of course there are exceptions). And SKS has a degree of humility and lack of judgemental certainty Blair didn't have (ultimately this destroyed him).
Lab/LD cobbling will be the best option.
They really need to fucking stop this.
How we laughed at Dave's Hug a Hoodie but he realised that the Cons needed to detoxify and this was a signal that they were intent on doing this.
Institutions of all kinds - public schools; churches; councils; etc - have all displayed reluctance to deal with allegations of abuse.
It's more about prioritising the institution over the individual - particularly if that individual is a child.
Otherwise it’s been Labour, Liberal, LibDem, Green, or independent. To some extent, it depended on whether the election was national or local. I’m more likely to switch my vote in a local election.
Of the Green voters, only 24% would definitely or "probably in the future" consider voting Conservative, whereas 67% would consider voting Labour. No real surprises there, if the 5% Green vote is squeezed at a GE it would be substantively to Labour's benefit.
Reform is more interesting. 53% would definitely or "probably in the future" consider voting Conservative, but 39% would consider voting Labour. What is a surprise is that the figures are so close, so while any erosion of the 7% Reform vote is going to help the Conservatives the benefit to them won't be as marked as might have been assumed.
Ex-staffer’s emails, texts are guiding investigators, who increasingly suspect Trump went through boxes after subpoena
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/02/trump-mar-a-lago-obstruction-classified/
This might prove a much more clear cut prosecution than the Stormy D affair.