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Sunak’s investing too much political capital on “stopping the boats” – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    edited March 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Chesham and Amersham is the most "pro-green" constituency in the country; Barnsley Central is the least, according to a new survey from UnHerd.

    https://britain.unherd.com/net-zero/

    Caroline Lucas MP (Brighton Pavilion, since 2010) may not concur.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    pigeon said:

    Biggest thing Tories need to do (probably impossible) is slash energy, fuel and mortgage costs.

    Kiboshing inflation is the best tax cut there is.

    Useless to the Tories on two counts:

    1. A long-term project, and political parties generally are rarely interested in doing anything useful that won't bear fruit within the current electoral cycle
    2. Involves doing things - greatly increasing electricity generation capacity, especially from renewables, and building lots and lots and lots of new houses - that their elderly Nimby base are going to loathe
    Besides, the £67 a month we've all been getting off our energy bills is about to come to an end, and I don't think anyone thinks it would be sensible to rerun it.

    As for mortgages, we will all be gradually shifting to higher interest rates as fixed rate terms end. Again, there's not a lot to be done about that. (But being totally calculating, a lot of Conservative voters are in the "already paid off their mortgages" category.)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,605
    Andy_JS said:

    Chesham and Amersham is the most "pro-green" constituency in the country; Barnsley Central is the least, according to a new survey from UnHerd.

    https://britain.unherd.com/net-zero/

    Contrary to the stereotype of young eco-warriors scolding their elders, these results also suggest that a belief in the need for greater environmental action slightly increases with age. Among the 18-24 age bracket, 35% agree that green issues are given too much emphasis, with the same figure for the 25-34 group. This falls to 28% of those aged between 35 and 44, 27% of the 45-54 group, 26% of the 55-64 group, and 27% of over-65s. Overall disagreement rises from 35% among the 18-24 bracket up to 44% among the oldest bracket.

    Not what you would expect but perhaps the young have more pressing concerns.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,825
    Haaland is what a cyborg wants to be when it grows up. What an absolutely incredible performance. 39 goals for the season now. Amazing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    DougSeal said:

    How have Stuart and Leon managed to be banned simultaneously? Some mutual expiration of Scottish subsamples I assume?

    Leon, Dickson and CHB all within 72 hours. No one can accuse the bans of being partisan anyway.
    The Horse too? Crikey!

    All for the same reason? Subsampling? Or what??

    AfaIcs it was because the mod(s) found them increasingly irritating, which seems a little...petulant.



    I'd better watch out.

    On that basis, I’d have been treble-banned by @TheScreamingEagles seven times in just the last day.
    Before myths start.

    Some were banned for dropping the C bomb (at other posters), some for posting stuff that will get OGH into trouble, some for being rude about OGH.

    As a general rule, those get you into trouble.

    OGH and RCS spend a lot of time and money so we can all post in real time, it isn't wise to abuse that hospitality.
    Is it OK to be rude to you then?
    Yes, so many people are.

    Have you noticed people who put pineapple on pizza or think Die Hard is a Christmas film can post freely on here.

    When Liverpool lose a match is also a fun time.
    Yebbut Die Hard IS most definitely a Christmas film!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,662
    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I disagree with the header, I think this is the right policy for Sunak to win the next election. The fact that it's not popular in safe Labour seats doesn't matter under FPTP.

    Since the policy’s been announced Labour’s turned that frown upside down…



    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Hang on, I thought it was Moonrabbit who did the pareidolia
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Eabhal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I disagree with the header, I think this is the right policy for Sunak to win the next election. The fact that it's not popular in safe Labour seats doesn't matter under FPTP.

    Since the policy’s been announced Labour’s turned that frown upside down…



    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Hang on, I thought it was Moonrabbit who did the pareidolia
    Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. I’m her biggest fan.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    DavidL said:

    Haaland is what a cyborg wants to be when it grows up. What an absolutely incredible performance. 39 goals for the season now. Amazing.

    His CPU is a neural net prahcessar: a lurning computar.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    What do people here think of Gary Lineker?

    A hero for standing up to the evil Tories!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,605

    MaxPB said:

    Something is happening in the blue wall

    At this moment, which of the following do Blue Wall voters think would be the better PM for the UK? (12 March)

    Rishi Sunak 38% (–)
    Keir Starmer 35% (-3)
    Don't Know 27% (+3)

    Which party do Blue Wall voters trust the most on the economy

    Conservatives 30% (+2)
    Labour 27% (-5)
    Others 18% (-4)
    Don't know 25% (+6)

    Blue Wall Sunak v Starmer

    Sunak leads on

    Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%)
    Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%)
    Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)

    Starmer leads on:

    Cares about people like me (36% | 27%)
    Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)

    RedfieldWilton


    Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,

    These are seats where Labour were third.
    I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.

    The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.

    Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
    On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.

    FWIW.
    Agreed. People are noticing Rishi is really good.
    So why didn't Conservative members when they had the choice between Sunak and Truss ?
    A very good question. Some got too high on their own supply taking their lines directly from the Mail/Express.

    Worth noting Rishi ran her much closer than expected though, even then.
    Was there anything more to it than wishful thinking that Truss was the 'new Thatcher' based on misunderstanding of what the original Thatcher did ?
  • I thought the first rule about ban hammer was that you don't talk about ban hammer.

    I'm less bothered by the ban hammer than I am the bugger this I'm off contingent.

    Ok so some of the people who drove off previously prolific posters and thread authors have now also been banned, but we're in danger of losing too many people here.

    You and I disagree on a lot of topics but neither of us are persecuting the other trying to drive them away. As some have done to people.like Cyclefree who then upped and left
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    DougSeal said:

    Eabhal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I disagree with the header, I think this is the right policy for Sunak to win the next election. The fact that it's not popular in safe Labour seats doesn't matter under FPTP.

    Since the policy’s been announced Labour’s turned that frown upside down…



    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Hang on, I thought it was Moonrabbit who did the pareidolia
    Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. I’m her biggest fan.
    Her and Liz Truss ?
    You display great endurance.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    pigeon said:

    Biggest thing Tories need to do (probably impossible) is slash energy, fuel and mortgage costs.

    Kiboshing inflation is the best tax cut there is.

    Useless to the Tories on two counts:

    1. A long-term project, and political parties generally are rarely interested in doing anything useful that won't bear fruit within the current electoral cycle
    2. Involves doing things - greatly increasing electricity generation capacity, especially from renewables, and building lots and lots and lots of new houses - that their elderly Nimby base are going to loathe
    Besides, the £67 a month we've all been getting off our energy bills is about to come to an end, and I don't think anyone thinks it would be sensible to rerun it.

    As for mortgages, we will all be gradually shifting to higher interest rates as fixed rate terms end. Again, there's not a lot to be done about that. (But being totally calculating, a lot of Conservative voters are in the "already paid off their mortgages" category.)
    Oh absolutely, the Conservatives have no incentive to do anything to stem house price inflation at all. The Tory core vote consists of minted elderly homeowners and their expectant late middle aged heirs.

    That's why, when he was Chancellor, Sunak invented the Health and Social Care Levy: in essence yet another tax hike on working incomes (NI rather than Income Tax being targeted because it's not paid by pensioners, of course,) to be used to pay for services that are either predominantly (healthcare) or overwhelmingly (adult social care) directed at the aged. The point being that, once established, the Levy could've been jacked up on a ratchet, over and over again, to bleed the young white for all the costs of wiping old people's bottoms, so that raids on the immense property wealth of the elderly would never be necessary. Any repeat of the Dementia Tax debacle was to be avoided at all costs.

    The only useful thing that Liz Truss achieved was to kill it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Eabhal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I disagree with the header, I think this is the right policy for Sunak to win the next election. The fact that it's not popular in safe Labour seats doesn't matter under FPTP.

    Since the policy’s been announced Labour’s turned that frown upside down…



    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Hang on, I thought it was Moonrabbit who did the pareidolia
    Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. I’m her biggest fan.
    Her and Liz Truss ?
    You display great endurance.
    So I’m told.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    DougSeal said:

    How have Stuart and Leon managed to be banned simultaneously? Some mutual expiration of Scottish subsamples I assume?

    Leon, Dickson and CHB all within 72 hours. No one can accuse the bans of being partisan anyway.
    CHB as well? Blimey
    He was on number 3 so I guess he’ll be back as CHB4. His Tom baker phase.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    Andy_JS said:

    Chesham and Amersham is the most "pro-green" constituency in the country; Barnsley Central is the least, according to a new survey from UnHerd.

    https://britain.unherd.com/net-zero/

    Contrary to the stereotype of young eco-warriors scolding their elders, these results also suggest that a belief in the need for greater environmental action slightly increases with age. Among the 18-24 age bracket, 35% agree that green issues are given too much emphasis, with the same figure for the 25-34 group. This falls to 28% of those aged between 35 and 44, 27% of the 45-54 group, 26% of the 55-64 group, and 27% of over-65s. Overall disagreement rises from 35% among the 18-24 bracket up to 44% among the oldest bracket.

    Not what you would expect but perhaps the young have more pressing concerns.
    Many aged homeowners are probably quite happy to recycle their old newspapers, buy fair trade produce and perhaps ride a bicycle. Try putting up a wind turbine within ten miles of their pile of fantastically expensive bricks, on the other hand, and see what kind of reaction you get.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited March 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    Chesham and Amersham is the most "pro-green" constituency in the country; Barnsley Central is the least, according to a new survey from UnHerd.

    https://britain.unherd.com/net-zero/

    Caroline Lucas MP (Brighton Pavilion, since 2010) may not concur.
    Brighton not even in the top 10, East Renfrewshire and Rushcliffe round off the top 3. 2/3 Tory held surprisingly but all voted Remain.

    Barnsley and Hull all in the bottom 3, all held by Labour but all voted Leave. Hartlepool and Wolverhampton SE the only seats in the bottom 10.

    Confirms on cultural issues the main divide is now Remain v Leave, a separate divide to the Tory v Labour divide still on economic issues
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    MaxPB said:

    Something is happening in the blue wall

    At this moment, which of the following do Blue Wall voters think would be the better PM for the UK? (12 March)

    Rishi Sunak 38% (–)
    Keir Starmer 35% (-3)
    Don't Know 27% (+3)

    Which party do Blue Wall voters trust the most on the economy

    Conservatives 30% (+2)
    Labour 27% (-5)
    Others 18% (-4)
    Don't know 25% (+6)

    Blue Wall Sunak v Starmer

    Sunak leads on

    Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%)
    Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%)
    Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)

    Starmer leads on:

    Cares about people like me (36% | 27%)
    Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)

    RedfieldWilton


    Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,

    These are seats where Labour were third.
    I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.

    The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.

    Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
    On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.

    FWIW.
    Agreed. People are noticing Rishi is really good.
    So why didn't Conservative members when they had the choice between Sunak and Truss ?
    A very good question. Some got too high on their own supply taking their lines directly from the Mail/Express.

    Worth noting Rishi ran her much closer than expected though, even then.
    Was there anything more to it than wishful thinking that Truss was the 'new Thatcher' based on misunderstanding of what the original Thatcher did ?
    Lady Whiplash's less-than-adept efforts to copy the Iron Maiden's fashion sense were shirley a tip-off?

    Personally thought LT's attempts at looking like MT were WTF?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    How have Stuart and Leon managed to be banned simultaneously? Some mutual expiration of Scottish subsamples I assume?

    Leon, Dickson and CHB all within 72 hours. No one can accuse the bans of being partisan anyway.
    CHB as well? Blimey
    He was on number 3 so I guess he’ll be back as CHB4. His Tom baker phase.
    Hopefully as Ice Warrior...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    How have Stuart and Leon managed to be banned simultaneously? Some mutual expiration of Scottish subsamples I assume?

    Leon, Dickson and CHB all within 72 hours. No one can accuse the bans of being partisan anyway.
    CHB as well? Blimey
    He was on number 3 so I guess he’ll be back as CHB4. His Tom baker phase.
    Will his avatar be wearing a big scarf?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    DavidL said:

    Listening to the SNP leader debate Kate Forbes is head and shoulders above the other two

    If she wins Scons could have s real problem

    Been saying this for a while. If she wins I am really not sure there will be any Tory MPs from Scotland in the next Parliament. Might be quite a few more Scottish Labour MPs though.
    I think the Scottish border seats and maybe Aberdeenshire West will stay Tory even v Forbes, though Moray and Banff and Buchan will go back to the SNP who held them under Salmond.

    Scottish Labour would gain a fair number of central belt seats though v Forbes and seats in the big cities like Edinburgh and Glasgow especially which are more socially liberal than Forbes
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    ClippP said:

    Drop for labour in blue wall

    Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (12 March):

    Labour 36% (-5)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 23% (+5)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-2)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 Feb

    More than a margin of error drop for Labour.

    Maybe their position on migrants is being seen as neither fish nor fowl. EIther go hard (Tories) or go soft (LibDems)?
    Or it could be that the Lib Dems are campaigning hard ahead of the local elections, and squeezing the Labour vote where it counts.....
    Could be. Not much evidence of it down here - as somebody who overheard their tactic talk in a local pub can attest.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    MaxPB said:

    The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.

    Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.

    With a 7 week old baby it seems a bit far off but time is passing and the wife will be back at work in Jan. Childcare at the uni is north of £60 a day, so going to be expensive…
    Plus your lucky if you can find it, or so i'm told by breeders.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Listening to the SNP leader debate Kate Forbes is head and shoulders above the other two

    If she wins Scons could have s real problem

    Been saying this for a while. If she wins I am really not sure there will be any Tory MPs from Scotland in the next Parliament. Might be quite a few more Scottish Labour MPs though.
    I think the Scottish border seats and maybe Aberdeenshire West will stay Tory even v Forbes, though Moray and Banff and Buchan will go back to the SNP who held them under Salmond.

    Scottish Labour would gain a fair number of central belt seats though v Forbes and seats in the big cities like Edinburgh and Glasgow especially which are more socially liberal than Forbes
    I think the SNP under Forbes could also gain Dumfries and Galloway. The Lib Dems must surely be hopeful of gaining Aberdeenshire West.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,825
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    I thought the first rule about ban hammer was that you don't talk about ban hammer.

    I'm less bothered by the ban hammer than I am the bugger this I'm off contingent.

    Ok so some of the people who drove off previously prolific posters and thread authors have now also been banned, but we're in danger of losing too many people here.

    You and I disagree on a lot of topics but neither of us are persecuting the other trying to drive them away. As some have done to people.like Cyclefree who then upped and left
    Didn't know @Cyclefree had left. Very disappointed to read that.
    Same here. Sorry to see her go. She always posted very thoughtful topics.
    I've not been on so much because I am now a humble public sector employee expected to turn up for work at specific time. I completely missed that. What happened?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,605

    Some nice data about unemployment by district and constituency:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyunitaryandlocalauthorityexperimental

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyparliamentaryconstituencyexperimental

    Unemployment is now only an issue in inner urban areas and a few grotty northern mill towns and coastal areas.

    Bolsover now has lower unemployment than any North London borough - something which would have been unconceivable when Dennis Skinner was in his prime.

    Constituencies where the male unemployment rate is over 3% higher than the female unemployment rate:

    Belfast North
    Belfast West
    Birkenhead
    Birmingham Erdington
    Birmingham Hall Green
    Birmingham Hodge Hill
    Birmingham Ladywood
    Birmingham Perry Barr
    Birmingham Yardley
    Bootle
    Bradford West
    Foyle
    Glasgow North-East
    Glasgow North-West
    Liverpool Walton
    Liverpool Wavertree
    Middlesborough
    Nottingham East

    So what's the answer to welfare dependent blokes in urban grot holes ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Listening to the SNP leader debate Kate Forbes is head and shoulders above the other two

    If she wins Scons could have s real problem

    Been saying this for a while. If she wins I am really not sure there will be any Tory MPs from Scotland in the next Parliament. Might be quite a few more Scottish Labour MPs though.
    I think the Scottish border seats and maybe Aberdeenshire West will stay Tory even v Forbes, though Moray and Banff and Buchan will go back to the SNP who held them under Salmond.

    Scottish Labour would gain a fair number of central belt seats though v Forbes and seats in the big cities like Edinburgh and Glasgow especially which are more socially liberal than Forbes
    I think the SNP under Forbes could also gain Dumfries and Galloway. The Lib Dems must surely be hopeful of gaining Aberdeenshire West.
    So could Labour who held Dumfries and Galloway until 2015. Aberdeenshire W was LD until 2015 too yes
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    How have Stuart and Leon managed to be banned simultaneously? Some mutual expiration of Scottish subsamples I assume?

    Leon, Dickson and CHB all within 72 hours. No one can accuse the bans of being partisan anyway.
    CHB as well? Blimey
    He was on number 3 so I guess he’ll be back as CHB4. His Tom baker phase.
    Ignores the ‘new’ canon. Who knows how many CHB’s there have been?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    I thought the first rule about ban hammer was that you don't talk about ban hammer.

    I'm less bothered by the ban hammer than I am the bugger this I'm off contingent.

    Ok so some of the people who drove off previously prolific posters and thread authors have now also been banned, but we're in danger of losing too many people here.

    You and I disagree on a lot of topics but neither of us are persecuting the other trying to drive them away. As some have done to people.like Cyclefree who then upped and left
    Didn't know @Cyclefree had left. Very disappointed to read that.
    Same here. Sorry to see her go. She always posted very thoughtful topics.
    I've not been on so much because I am now a humble public sector employee expected to turn up for work at specific time. I completely missed that. What happened?
    A humble public sector employee? Does that mean my taxes are paying your wages? You’ll be voting Labour next!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited March 2023

    Some nice data about unemployment by district and constituency:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyunitaryandlocalauthorityexperimental

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyparliamentaryconstituencyexperimental

    Unemployment is now only an issue in inner urban areas and a few grotty northern mill towns and coastal areas.

    Bolsover now has lower unemployment than any North London borough - something which would have been unconceivable when Dennis Skinner was in his prime.

    Constituencies where the male unemployment rate is over 3% higher than the female unemployment rate:

    Belfast North
    Belfast West
    Birkenhead
    Birmingham Erdington
    Birmingham Hall Green
    Birmingham Hodge Hill
    Birmingham Ladywood
    Birmingham Perry Barr
    Birmingham Yardley
    Bootle
    Bradford West
    Foyle
    Glasgow North-East
    Glasgow North-West
    Liverpool Walton
    Liverpool Wavertree
    Middlesborough
    Nottingham East

    So what's the answer to welfare dependent blokes in urban grot holes ?
    Retraining and courses to get them actively seeking work to claim welfare
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Listening to the SNP leader debate Kate Forbes is head and shoulders above the other two

    If she wins Scons could have s real problem

    Been saying this for a while. If she wins I am really not sure there will be any Tory MPs from Scotland in the next Parliament. Might be quite a few more Scottish Labour MPs though.
    I think the Scottish border seats and maybe Aberdeenshire West will stay Tory even v Forbes, though Moray and Banff and Buchan will go back to the SNP who held them under Salmond.

    Scottish Labour would gain a fair number of central belt seats though v Forbes and seats in the big cities like Edinburgh and Glasgow especially which are more socially liberal than Forbes
    I think the SNP under Forbes could also gain Dumfries and Galloway. The Lib Dems must surely be hopeful of gaining Aberdeenshire West.
    I suppose it really depends how much of the residual Scottish Tory vote is truly Unionist, and how much of it is simply looking for the party most committed to a platform of low taxation and burning the ungodly at the stake?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Some nice data about unemployment by district and constituency:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyunitaryandlocalauthorityexperimental

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyparliamentaryconstituencyexperimental

    Unemployment is now only an issue in inner urban areas and a few grotty northern mill towns and coastal areas.

    Bolsover now has lower unemployment than any North London borough - something which would have been unconceivable when Dennis Skinner was in his prime.

    Constituencies where the male unemployment rate is over 3% higher than the female unemployment rate:

    Belfast North
    Belfast West
    Birkenhead
    Birmingham Erdington
    Birmingham Hall Green
    Birmingham Hodge Hill
    Birmingham Ladywood
    Birmingham Perry Barr
    Birmingham Yardley
    Bootle
    Bradford West
    Foyle
    Glasgow North-East
    Glasgow North-West
    Liverpool Walton
    Liverpool Wavertree
    Middlesborough
    Nottingham East

    So what's the answer to welfare dependent blokes in urban grot holes ?
    Bring back National Service! 😆
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    Ash Regan - Nick Clegg
    Humza Yousaf - Liz Truss
    Kate Forbes - Gordon Brown
    Nicola Sturgeon - Tony Blair
    Alex Salmond - Harold Wilson.
    John Swinney - no, I'm not going to be cruel to Heath.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,825

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    I thought the first rule about ban hammer was that you don't talk about ban hammer.

    I'm less bothered by the ban hammer than I am the bugger this I'm off contingent.

    Ok so some of the people who drove off previously prolific posters and thread authors have now also been banned, but we're in danger of losing too many people here.

    You and I disagree on a lot of topics but neither of us are persecuting the other trying to drive them away. As some have done to people.like Cyclefree who then upped and left
    Didn't know @Cyclefree had left. Very disappointed to read that.
    Same here. Sorry to see her go. She always posted very thoughtful topics.
    I've not been on so much because I am now a humble public sector employee expected to turn up for work at specific time. I completely missed that. What happened?
    A humble public sector employee? Does that mean my taxes are paying your wages? You’ll be voting Labour next!
    To be honest I still seem to be earning more on the side than through the wages but I am now contracted to work 220 days a year as an Advocate Depute. I started a new rape trial today which will keep me going for the rest of the week and possibly into next.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    You’ll be pleased to know I voted for Forbes. Regan 2nd preference to help kick Yousaf out and upset the SNP establishment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    What do people here think of Gary Lineker?

    Leicester legend.

    Even when he moved on to Everton, he never forgot his roots, still a great bloke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    Ash Regan - Nick Clegg
    Humza Yousaf - Liz Truss
    Kate Forbes - Gordon Brown
    Nicola Sturgeon - Tony Blair
    Alex Salmond - Harold Wilson.
    John Swinney - no, I'm not going to be cruel to Heath.
    Kate Forbes - a socially conservative Liz Truss
    Ash Regan - Penny Mordaunt
    Humza Yousaf - A less bright and less competent Rishi Sunak
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    On a passing note, is "Budget Purdah" just history now? The main budget elements seem to be leaked every day for weeks.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    DougSeal said:

    How have Stuart and Leon managed to be banned simultaneously? Some mutual expiration of Scottish subsamples I assume?

    Leon, Dickson and CHB all within 72 hours. No one can accuse the bans of being partisan anyway.
    The Horse too? Crikey!

    All for the same reason? Subsampling? Or what??

    AfaIcs it was because the mod(s) found them increasingly irritating, which seems a little...petulant.



    I'd better watch out.

    On that basis, I’d have been treble-banned by @TheScreamingEagles seven times in just the last day.
    Before myths start.

    Some were banned for dropping the C bomb (at other posters), some for posting stuff that will get OGH into trouble, some for being rude about OGH.

    As a general rule, those get you into trouble.

    OGH and RCS spend a lot of time and money so we can all post in real time, it isn't wise to abuse that hospitality.
    With respect to last point, I wish to take this opportunity, to apologize unreservedly, repeatedly, abjectly, for ever referring to Smithson the Elder as a Liberal Democrat.

    As for Smithson the Younger, the fact that he is a lifelong Marxist (Grouchoist) is so obvious as to be beyond apology.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Foxy said:

    On a passing note, is "Budget Purdah" just history now? The main budget elements seem to be leaked every day for weeks.

    Is it still in force for moves where people could make money if they knew in advance?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited March 2023
    Foxy said:

    On a passing note, is "Budget Purdah" just history now? The main budget elements seem to be leaked every day for weeks.

    Ancient history. Who was the last Chancellor not to pre-announce policy?

    Though there's bound to be a rabbit hidden somewhere.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,825
    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    You’ll be pleased to know I voted for Forbes. Regan 2nd preference to help kick Yousaf out and upset the SNP establishment.
    Yes, if Forbes win the SNP will have their very own Liz Truss. A leader most of the MPs and MSPs opposed but who members elected anyway, however like Labour with Corbyn but unlike the Tories with Truss they have no mechanism for their parliamentary representatives to remove her by VONC if she proves a dud
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    Foxy said:

    On a passing note, is "Budget Purdah" just history now? The main budget elements seem to be leaked every day for weeks.

    Ancient history. Who was the last Chancellor not to pre-announce policy?

    Though there's bound to be a rabbit hidden somewhere.
    Why Chancellors continue to think it's a good idea, in the face of decades of evidence to the contrary, to leak the good stuff in advance so the bad stuff dominates headlines for days afterwards remains a mystery.

    As for your question, I can't tell you who the last was, although I would guess it was Howe. I can tell you who the first was - Hugh Dalton. He was sacked on the spot for it by Attlee.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2023
    Foxy said:

    On a passing note, is "Budget Purdah" just history now? The main budget elements seem to be leaked every day for weeks.

    I guess it’s partly the consequence of the trauma of the Truss/Kwarteng “fiscal event” stunt.

    They’re being overcautious.

    No alarms and no surprises, please.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    SCons though are praying for a Yousaf win, they would hold all their seats and even gain some SNP seats like Gordon if he wins.

    SLab and the Greens by contrast are praying for a Forbes win who will turn off urban social liberals now voting SNP in droves
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    On a passing note, is "Budget Purdah" just history now? The main budget elements seem to be leaked every day for weeks.

    Ancient history. Who was the last Chancellor not to pre-announce policy?

    Though there's bound to be a rabbit hidden somewhere.
    Why Chancellors continue to think it's a good idea, in the face of decades of evidence to the contrary, to leak the good stuff in advance so the bad stuff dominates headlines for days afterwards remains a mystery.

    As for your question, I can't tell you who the last was, although I would guess it was Howe. I can tell you who the first was - Hugh Dalton. He was sacked on the spot for it by Attlee.
    Brown kept most under his hat. Mostly to keep Blair in the dark, I think.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    HYUFD said:

    Some nice data about unemployment by district and constituency:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyunitaryandlocalauthorityexperimental

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyparliamentaryconstituencyexperimental

    Unemployment is now only an issue in inner urban areas and a few grotty northern mill towns and coastal areas.

    Bolsover now has lower unemployment than any North London borough - something which would have been unconceivable when Dennis Skinner was in his prime.

    Constituencies where the male unemployment rate is over 3% higher than the female unemployment rate:

    Belfast North
    Belfast West
    Birkenhead
    Birmingham Erdington
    Birmingham Hall Green
    Birmingham Hodge Hill
    Birmingham Ladywood
    Birmingham Perry Barr
    Birmingham Yardley
    Bootle
    Bradford West
    Foyle
    Glasgow North-East
    Glasgow North-West
    Liverpool Walton
    Liverpool Wavertree
    Middlesborough
    Nottingham East

    So what's the answer to welfare dependent blokes in urban grot holes ?
    Retraining and courses to get them actively seeking work to claim welfare
    Benefit sanctions have been a thing since the year dot.

    I honestly don't know how much time and money is spent on offering training to the unemployed. Not a lot, I suspect. What do we think that Jobcentre Plus is more geared towards, getting people into good jobs or just getting them off their books as quickly as possible?

    Besides, every pound spent on training schemes is one pound less that's available to spend on pensioners.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    SCons though are praying for a Yousaf win, they would hold all their seats and even gain some SNP seats like Gordon if he wins.

    SLab and the Greens by contrast are praying for a Forbes win who will turn off urban social liberals now voting SNP in droves
    Agreed, except that the Greens may want a Yousaf win, so that they remain part of Government.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Also fine in the DUP.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Er, I think that should be 'fortunately Scotland is not Alabama'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Surely it is fortunate that Scotland is not Alabama!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.

    Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.

    How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
    They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.

    Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
    Nah, this is a policy that will eventually pay for itself due to higher labour force participation and an increase in the fertility rate and all of the extra spending it comes with.
    There's a risk that the government try to do it on the cheap. What they promise to pay childcare providers isn't enough to cover their costs, and so you end up with a reduction in childcare supply at the same time as an increase in childcare demand. Then effectively you have the NHS system, where supposedly it is free, but actually it is rationed by restricting supply, and so you have lots of people on waiting lists waiting for a place for their child at the local nursery, just as people are on waiting lists for ages for NHS treatment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    On a passing note, is "Budget Purdah" just history now? The main budget elements seem to be leaked every day for weeks.

    Ancient history. Who was the last Chancellor not to pre-announce policy?

    Though there's bound to be a rabbit hidden somewhere.
    Why Chancellors continue to think it's a good idea, in the face of decades of evidence to the contrary, to leak the good stuff in advance so the bad stuff dominates headlines for days afterwards remains a mystery.

    As for your question, I can't tell you who the last was, although I would guess it was Howe. I can tell you who the first was - Hugh Dalton. He was sacked on the spot for it by Attlee.
    Brown kept most under his hat. Mostly to keep Blair in the dark, I think.
    Really? If you didn't know about the abolition of the 10p tax band until the budget you must have been the only person in Europe in the dark.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,825
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    I am not that bothered by her religious views. She has been very clear to anyone willing to listen that is how she chooses to live her life but she doesn't expect others to do the same. I admire the fact she can put a moderately complex sentence together and maintain a line of thought for more than a minute or two. These are not high bars but Ash is borderline demented and Yousaf is both stupid and incompetent. Scotland needs better.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    What do people here think of Gary Lineker?

    Witty TV host, top striker in his day, and a genuine nice-guy to (golden) boot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    The mental picture this conjures might upset a few.
    (Luckily I have already digested my dinner.)

    Trump says the Queen, Diana and Oprah Winfrey ‘kissed my ass’ in letters
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/mar/14/queen-diana-oprah-kissed-my-ass-trump-book-letters
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Surely it is fortunate that Scotland is not Alabama!
    Great minds!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    I am not that bothered by her religious views. She has been very clear to anyone willing to listen that is how she chooses to live her life but she doesn't expect others to do the same. I admire the fact she can put a moderately complex sentence together and maintain a line of thought for more than a minute or two. These are not high bars but Ash is borderline demented and Yousaf is both stupid and incompetent. Scotland needs better.
    Oh, I agree, but I think too many won't.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,012
    I just discovered today that on Friday the government announced that they plan to spend* £20 billion on carbon capture and storage. A bit of a jump from £1 billion.

    *Spend/Invest/Piss Away - Delete as you see fit.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,961

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Er, I think that should be 'fortunately Scotland is not Alabama'.
    HYUFD's spiritual homeland is Antrim which is probably as close as you can get to Alabama in the UK. The heart wants what the heart wants.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Nigelb said:

    The mental picture this conjures might upset a few.
    (Luckily I have already digested my dinner.)

    Trump says the Queen, Diana and Oprah Winfrey ‘kissed my ass’ in letters
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/mar/14/queen-diana-oprah-kissed-my-ass-trump-book-letters

    Fats Waller:
    I'm gonna sit right down and write myself a letter
    And make believe it came from you
    I'm gonna write words, oh so sweet
    They're gonna knock me off my feet
    A lotta kisses on the bottom
    I'll be glad I got 'em


  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,750
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Listening to the SNP leader debate Kate Forbes is head and shoulders above the other two

    If she wins Scons could have s real problem

    Been saying this for a while. If she wins I am really not sure there will be any Tory MPs from Scotland in the next Parliament. Might be quite a few more Scottish Labour MPs though.
    I think the Scottish border seats and maybe Aberdeenshire West will stay Tory even v Forbes, though Moray and Banff and Buchan will go back to the SNP who held them under Salmond.

    Scottish Labour would gain a fair number of central belt seats though v Forbes and seats in the big cities like Edinburgh and Glasgow especially which are more socially liberal than Forbes
    I think the SNP under Forbes could also gain Dumfries and Galloway. The Lib Dems must surely be hopeful of gaining Aberdeenshire West.
    So could Labour who held Dumfries and Galloway until 2015. Aberdeenshire W was LD until 2015 too yes
    There is precisely zero chance of the LibDems winning Aberdeenshire W. Their vote has evaporated. It's a Tory/SNP marginal. And there's zero chance for Labour in D&G for much the same reason.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,825

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Er, I think that should be 'fortunately Scotland is not Alabama'.
    As Tom Lehrer said:
    "We'll try to stay serene and calm
    When Alabama gets the bomb.
    Who's next?"
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited March 2023
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    On a passing note, is "Budget Purdah" just history now? The main budget elements seem to be leaked every day for weeks.

    Ancient history. Who was the last Chancellor not to pre-announce policy?

    Though there's bound to be a rabbit hidden somewhere.
    Why Chancellors continue to think it's a good idea, in the face of decades of evidence to the contrary, to leak the good stuff in advance so the bad stuff dominates headlines for days afterwards remains a mystery.

    As for your question, I can't tell you who the last was, although I would guess it was Howe. I can tell you who the first was - Hugh Dalton. He was sacked on the spot for it by Attlee.
    Brown kept most under his hat. Mostly to keep Blair in the dark, I think.
    Brown definitely did pre-announce stuff. Plus there was this - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4356289.stm - which would certainly have led to a resignation in the past.

    I think Howe is probably quite a decent guess.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Er, I think that should be 'fortunately Scotland is not Alabama'.
    HYUFD's spiritual homeland is Antrim which is probably as close as you can get to Alabama in the UK. The heart wants what the heart wants.
    I think he would be happiest living on the Shankill Road.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.

    Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.

    How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
    They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.

    Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
    Nah, this is a policy that will eventually pay for itself due to higher labour force participation and an increase in the fertility rate and all of the extra spending it comes with.
    There's a risk that the government try to do it on the cheap. What they promise to pay childcare providers isn't enough to cover their costs, and so you end up with a reduction in childcare supply at the same time as an increase in childcare demand. Then effectively you have the NHS system, where supposedly it is free, but actually it is rationed by restricting supply, and so you have lots of people on waiting lists waiting for a place for their child at the local nursery, just as people are on waiting lists for ages for NHS treatment.
    They've already done that.

    The Government stands accused of ‘shamelessly’ and ‘knowingly underfunding’ the early years sector, after private Government documents obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveal that ministers at the Department for Education were aware that it was severely underfunding providers of funded childcare places for three- and four-year-olds.

    The briefing, shared today after a two-year Freedom of Information dispute with the DfE, shows that early years funding rates for 2020/21 were less than two-thirds of what officials estimated to be the true cost of ‘fully funding’ the scheme.

    The documents also reveal ministers knew the inadequate level of investment proposed would result in higher costs for parents of younger children, and that nurseries, pre-schools and childminders would be forced to use maximum statutory adult-to-child ratios – despite the impact this could have on the quality of provision.

    One briefing document obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveals that in 2015, civil servants at the DfE estimated the cost of providing a Government-funded early years place for a three- or four-year old would reach £7.49 per child per hour by 2020-21.

    It suggests that providers should ‘become more efficient’ in order to reduce costs.


    https://www.nurseryworld.co.uk/news/article/government-knowingly-underfunded-the-early-years-sector

    The end result of this was not that hard-pressed nurseries 'became more efficient to reduce costs.' They hiked prices for younger children to plug the gaps left by the scheme, or they folded.

    Childcare is like most other things that this Government does. If it's not a priority for wealthy retirees then it gets done on the cheap or it doesn't get done at all.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,012

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Er, I think that should be 'fortunately Scotland is not Alabama'.
    HYUFD's spiritual homeland is Antrim which is probably as close as you can get to Alabama in the UK. The heart wants what the heart wants.
    I think he would be happiest living on the Shankill Road.
    Where all the houses have sash windows.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Er, I think that should be 'fortunately Scotland is not Alabama'.
    HYUFD's spiritual homeland is Antrim which is probably as close as you can get to Alabama in the UK. The heart wants what the heart wants.
    I think he would be happiest living on the Shankill Road.
    Where all the houses have sash windows.
    Sashaying down the Shankill Road conjures up the idea.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Three Texas women are sued for wrongful death after allegedly helping friend obtain abortion medication
    https://www.texastribune.org/2023/03/10/texas-abortion-lawsuit/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262

    Some nice data about unemployment by district and constituency:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyunitaryandlocalauthorityexperimental

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyparliamentaryconstituencyexperimental

    Unemployment is now only an issue in inner urban areas and a few grotty northern mill towns and coastal areas.

    Bolsover now has lower unemployment than any North London borough - something which would have been unconceivable when Dennis Skinner was in his prime.

    Constituencies where the male unemployment rate is over 3% higher than the female unemployment rate:

    Belfast North
    Belfast West
    Birkenhead
    Birmingham Erdington
    Birmingham Hall Green
    Birmingham Hodge Hill
    Birmingham Ladywood
    Birmingham Perry Barr
    Birmingham Yardley
    Bootle
    Bradford West
    Foyle
    Glasgow North-East
    Glasgow North-West
    Liverpool Walton
    Liverpool Wavertree
    Middlesborough
    Nottingham East

    So what's the answer to welfare dependent blokes in urban grot holes ?
    In General Hackett’s book The Third World War ends with Russia nuking Birmingham.

    Hmmmm.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Er, I think that should be 'fortunately Scotland is not Alabama'.
    HYUFD's spiritual homeland is Antrim which is probably as close as you can get to Alabama in the UK. The heart wants what the heart wants.
    Don't forget his insistence on bringing Armalites into the political process. Plenty of AR-15s in Alabama.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.

    Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.

    How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
    They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.

    Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
    Nah, this is a policy that will eventually pay for itself due to higher labour force participation and an increase in the fertility rate and all of the extra spending it comes with.
    There's a risk that the government try to do it on the cheap. What they promise to pay childcare providers isn't enough to cover their costs, and so you end up with a reduction in childcare supply at the same time as an increase in childcare demand. Then effectively you have the NHS system, where supposedly it is free, but actually it is rationed by restricting supply, and so you have lots of people on waiting lists waiting for a place for their child at the local nursery, just as people are on waiting lists for ages for NHS treatment.
    Already something of a problem; the government-funded hours for 3 and 4 year olds don't really cover costs properly, compensated by parents paying more for the commercial hours.

    Still, the right thing to do, as long as it's done well.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,750
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    I am not that bothered by her religious views. She has been very clear to anyone willing to listen that is how she chooses to live her life but she doesn't expect others to do the same. I admire the fact she can put a moderately complex sentence together and maintain a line of thought for more than a minute or two. These are not high bars but Ash is borderline demented and Yousaf is both stupid and incompetent. Scotland needs better.
    Neither am I. But this, actually, is far less significant than that her position appears to be a complete repudiation of the Sturgeon progressive project. That's why the entire SNP establishment is behind Yousaf despite him being an obvious dud. My pet theory is that they wish to keep the option of Nicola returning open. The election of 32-yr old Forbes could well close that down.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,825

    DougSeal said:

    How have Stuart and Leon managed to be banned simultaneously? Some mutual expiration of Scottish subsamples I assume?

    Leon, Dickson and CHB all within 72 hours. No one can accuse the bans of being partisan anyway.
    The Horse too? Crikey!

    All for the same reason? Subsampling? Or what??

    AfaIcs it was because the mod(s) found them increasingly irritating, which seems a little...petulant.



    I'd better watch out.

    On that basis, I’d have been treble-banned by @TheScreamingEagles seven times in just the last day.
    Before myths start.

    Some were banned for dropping the C bomb (at other posters), some for posting stuff that will get OGH into trouble, some for being rude about OGH.

    As a general rule, those get you into trouble.

    OGH and RCS spend a lot of time and money so we can all post in real time, it isn't wise to abuse that hospitality.
    Is it OK to be rude to you then?
    Yes, so many people are.

    Have you noticed people who put pineapple on pizza or think Die Hard is a Christmas film can post freely on here.

    When Liverpool lose a match is also a fun time.
    Busy year so far, just sayin’.
    But I'll always have this.


    Time for bed, I think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    I just discovered today that on Friday the government announced that they plan to spend* £20 billion on carbon capture and storage. A bit of a jump from £1 billion.

    *Spend/Invest/Piss Away - Delete as you see fit.

    This government's energy policy has been captured by complete clowns.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited March 2023

    Some nice data about unemployment by district and constituency:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyunitaryandlocalauthorityexperimental

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyparliamentaryconstituencyexperimental

    Unemployment is now only an issue in inner urban areas and a few grotty northern mill towns and coastal areas.

    Bolsover now has lower unemployment than any North London borough - something which would have been unconceivable when Dennis Skinner was in his prime.

    Constituencies where the male unemployment rate is over 3% higher than the female unemployment rate:

    Belfast North
    Belfast West
    Birkenhead
    Birmingham Erdington
    Birmingham Hall Green
    Birmingham Hodge Hill
    Birmingham Ladywood
    Birmingham Perry Barr
    Birmingham Yardley
    Bootle
    Bradford West
    Foyle
    Glasgow North-East
    Glasgow North-West
    Liverpool Walton
    Liverpool Wavertree
    Middlesborough
    Nottingham East

    So what's the answer to welfare dependent blokes in urban grot holes ?
    In General Hackett’s book The Third World War ends with Russia nuking Birmingham.

    Hmmmm.
    And Kiev as I recall.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Er, I think that should be 'fortunately Scotland is not Alabama'.
    HYUFD's spiritual homeland is Antrim which is probably as close as you can get to Alabama in the UK. The heart wants what the heart wants.
    The least Catholic local authority in NI is Ards & North Down.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,634
    Ian Wright says that “heads have got to roll” at the top of the BBC.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1635751364264427521
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.

    Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.

    How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
    They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.

    Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
    Nah, this is a policy that will eventually pay for itself due to higher labour force participation and an increase in the fertility rate and all of the extra spending it comes with.
    There's a risk that the government try to do it on the cheap. What they promise to pay childcare providers isn't enough to cover their costs, and so you end up with a reduction in childcare supply at the same time as an increase in childcare demand. Then effectively you have the NHS system, where supposedly it is free, but actually it is rationed by restricting supply, and so you have lots of people on waiting lists waiting for a place for their child at the local nursery, just as people are on waiting lists for ages for NHS treatment.
    They've already done that.

    The Government stands accused of ‘shamelessly’ and ‘knowingly underfunding’ the early years sector, after private Government documents obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveal that ministers at the Department for Education were aware that it was severely underfunding providers of funded childcare places for three- and four-year-olds.

    The briefing, shared today after a two-year Freedom of Information dispute with the DfE, shows that early years funding rates for 2020/21 were less than two-thirds of what officials estimated to be the true cost of ‘fully funding’ the scheme.

    The documents also reveal ministers knew the inadequate level of investment proposed would result in higher costs for parents of younger children, and that nurseries, pre-schools and childminders would be forced to use maximum statutory adult-to-child ratios – despite the impact this could have on the quality of provision.

    One briefing document obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveals that in 2015, civil servants at the DfE estimated the cost of providing a Government-funded early years place for a three- or four-year old would reach £7.49 per child per hour by 2020-21.

    It suggests that providers should ‘become more efficient’ in order to reduce costs.


    https://www.nurseryworld.co.uk/news/article/government-knowingly-underfunded-the-early-years-sector

    The end result of this was not that hard-pressed nurseries 'became more efficient to reduce costs.' They hiked prices for younger children to plug the gaps left by the scheme, or they folded.

    Childcare is like most other things that this Government does. If it's not a priority for wealthy retirees then it gets done on the cheap or it doesn't get done at all.
    Looking back our experience of nursery in England was poor. It was just kids sitting bunched together in a room soiling themselves and crying with teenagers looking after them, who would be constantly changing. My son didn't like it but he only went for two mornings a week. It got an Ofsted good rating. I think our opinion in retrospect is that we should either have sent him to the nursery at the independent school or looked after him ourselves, as he got absolutely nothing out of going to this nursery.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.

    Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.

    How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
    They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.

    Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
    Nah, this is a policy that will eventually pay for itself due to higher labour force participation and an increase in the fertility rate and all of the extra spending it comes with.
    There's a risk that the government try to do it on the cheap. What they promise to pay childcare providers isn't enough to cover their costs, and so you end up with a reduction in childcare supply at the same time as an increase in childcare demand. Then effectively you have the NHS system, where supposedly it is free, but actually it is rationed by restricting supply, and so you have lots of people on waiting lists waiting for a place for their child at the local nursery, just as people are on waiting lists for ages for NHS treatment.
    They've already done that.

    The Government stands accused of ‘shamelessly’ and ‘knowingly underfunding’ the early years sector, after private Government documents obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveal that ministers at the Department for Education were aware that it was severely underfunding providers of funded childcare places for three- and four-year-olds.

    The briefing, shared today after a two-year Freedom of Information dispute with the DfE, shows that early years funding rates for 2020/21 were less than two-thirds of what officials estimated to be the true cost of ‘fully funding’ the scheme.

    The documents also reveal ministers knew the inadequate level of investment proposed would result in higher costs for parents of younger children, and that nurseries, pre-schools and childminders would be forced to use maximum statutory adult-to-child ratios – despite the impact this could have on the quality of provision.

    One briefing document obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveals that in 2015, civil servants at the DfE estimated the cost of providing a Government-funded early years place for a three- or four-year old would reach £7.49 per child per hour by 2020-21.

    It suggests that providers should ‘become more efficient’ in order to reduce costs.


    https://www.nurseryworld.co.uk/news/article/government-knowingly-underfunded-the-early-years-sector

    The end result of this was not that hard-pressed nurseries 'became more efficient to reduce costs.' They hiked prices for younger children to plug the gaps left by the scheme, or they folded.

    Childcare is like most other things that this Government does. If it's not a priority for wealthy retirees then it gets done on the cheap or it doesn't get done at all.
    “maximum statutory adult-to-child ratios” are higher in this country than anywhere else in Europe, IIRC.

    This gold plating of child care raised the cost to that of private school for those able to use the legit providers.

    And just as in the days when only black cabs were legal in London, everyone else uses unregistered amateur help.

    Unless they are rich enough to afford space for an au pair.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    As a Yoon I don't have a say about who'll become first minister, but having seen and heard the candidates it will disappointment me if it's not Forbes. Otoh either of the others will be good for Yoonism.

    It is a dilemma but Scotland needs some competent management by someone whose idea of a decision is not to aim for the long grass or pick unnecessary fights. Yousaf as FM is a truly depressing prospect.
    I am pretty relaxed about strong religious views, but I can see Forbes is too far out for modern politics.
    Not quite, she would be fine in Alabama, unfortunately Scotland is not Alabama
    Er, I think that should be 'fortunately Scotland is not Alabama'.
    HYUFD's spiritual homeland is Antrim which is probably as close as you can get to Alabama in the UK. The heart wants what the heart wants.
    Don't forget his insistence on bringing Armalites into the political process. Plenty of AR-15s in Alabama.
    Even in Alabama, an actual tank would be considered cool.

    Then again, a Covenanter wouldn’t be running very cool in that climate. They were prone to overheating in Northumberland. In winter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Ian Wright says that “heads have got to roll” at the top of the BBC.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1635751364264427521

    Wouldn’t sackings suffice ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    Nigelb said:

    Ian Wright says that “heads have got to roll” at the top of the BBC.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1635751364264427521

    Wouldn’t sackings suffice ?
    With thinking like that, golf would never have been invented.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,605
    Foxy said:



    Some nice data about unemployment by district and constituency:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyunitaryandlocalauthorityexperimental

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyparliamentaryconstituencyexperimental

    Unemployment is now only an issue in inner urban areas and a few grotty northern mill towns and coastal areas.

    Bolsover now has lower unemployment than any North London borough - something which would have been unconceivable when Dennis Skinner was in his prime.

    Constituencies where the male unemployment rate is over 3% higher than the female unemployment rate:

    Belfast North
    Belfast West
    Birkenhead
    Birmingham Erdington
    Birmingham Hall Green
    Birmingham Hodge Hill
    Birmingham Ladywood
    Birmingham Perry Barr
    Birmingham Yardley
    Bootle
    Bradford West
    Foyle
    Glasgow North-East
    Glasgow North-West
    Liverpool Walton
    Liverpool Wavertree
    Middlesborough
    Nottingham East

    So what's the answer to welfare dependent blokes in urban grot holes ?
    In General Hackett’s book The Third World War ends with Russia nuking Birmingham.

    Hmmmm.
    And Kiev as I recall.
    Minsk was the retaliation.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.

    Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.

    How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
    They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.

    Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
    Nah, this is a policy that will eventually pay for itself due to higher labour force participation and an increase in the fertility rate and all of the extra spending it comes with.
    There's a risk that the government try to do it on the cheap. What they promise to pay childcare providers isn't enough to cover their costs, and so you end up with a reduction in childcare supply at the same time as an increase in childcare demand. Then effectively you have the NHS system, where supposedly it is free, but actually it is rationed by restricting supply, and so you have lots of people on waiting lists waiting for a place for their child at the local nursery, just as people are on waiting lists for ages for NHS treatment.
    They've already done that.

    The Government stands accused of ‘shamelessly’ and ‘knowingly underfunding’ the early years sector, after private Government documents obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveal that ministers at the Department for Education were aware that it was severely underfunding providers of funded childcare places for three- and four-year-olds.

    The briefing, shared today after a two-year Freedom of Information dispute with the DfE, shows that early years funding rates for 2020/21 were less than two-thirds of what officials estimated to be the true cost of ‘fully funding’ the scheme.

    The documents also reveal ministers knew the inadequate level of investment proposed would result in higher costs for parents of younger children, and that nurseries, pre-schools and childminders would be forced to use maximum statutory adult-to-child ratios – despite the impact this could have on the quality of provision.

    One briefing document obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveals that in 2015, civil servants at the DfE estimated the cost of providing a Government-funded early years place for a three- or four-year old would reach £7.49 per child per hour by 2020-21.

    It suggests that providers should ‘become more efficient’ in order to reduce costs.


    https://www.nurseryworld.co.uk/news/article/government-knowingly-underfunded-the-early-years-sector

    The end result of this was not that hard-pressed nurseries 'became more efficient to reduce costs.' They hiked prices for younger children to plug the gaps left by the scheme, or they folded.

    Childcare is like most other things that this Government does. If it's not a priority for wealthy retirees then it gets done on the cheap or it doesn't get done at all.
    Whilst I agree with the overall thrust and appreciate the detailed news clip, I think your last paragraph is a touch churlish on the day that they announce/leak a huge childcare subsidy for 1 and 2 year olds.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited March 2023
    Extremely impressed with Simon Fell MP on World Tonight on the phantom Barrow grooming case.
    Balanced, empathetic, nuanced and utterly focused on his constituents' needs, rather than political advantage and grandstanding.
    He's a Tory MP I could consider voting for.
    Not all Red Wall MP's are like the others.
    Should he lose in the next GE, any other seat would be blessed to have him.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,783
    geoffw said:

    Nigelb said:

    The mental picture this conjures might upset a few.
    (Luckily I have already digested my dinner.)

    Trump says the Queen, Diana and Oprah Winfrey ‘kissed my ass’ in letters
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/mar/14/queen-diana-oprah-kissed-my-ass-trump-book-letters

    Fats Waller:
    I'm gonna sit right down and write myself a letter
    And make believe it came from you
    I'm gonna write words, oh so sweet
    They're gonna knock me off my feet
    A lotta kisses on the bottom
    I'll be glad I got 'em


    That's a great song.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.

    Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.

    How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
    They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.

    Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
    Nah, this is a policy that will eventually pay for itself due to higher labour force participation and an increase in the fertility rate and all of the extra spending it comes with.
    There's a risk that the government try to do it on the cheap. What they promise to pay childcare providers isn't enough to cover their costs, and so you end up with a reduction in childcare supply at the same time as an increase in childcare demand. Then effectively you have the NHS system, where supposedly it is free, but actually it is rationed by restricting supply, and so you have lots of people on waiting lists waiting for a place for their child at the local nursery, just as people are on waiting lists for ages for NHS treatment.
    They've already done that.

    The Government stands accused of ‘shamelessly’ and ‘knowingly underfunding’ the early years sector, after private Government documents obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveal that ministers at the Department for Education were aware that it was severely underfunding providers of funded childcare places for three- and four-year-olds.

    The briefing, shared today after a two-year Freedom of Information dispute with the DfE, shows that early years funding rates for 2020/21 were less than two-thirds of what officials estimated to be the true cost of ‘fully funding’ the scheme.

    The documents also reveal ministers knew the inadequate level of investment proposed would result in higher costs for parents of younger children, and that nurseries, pre-schools and childminders would be forced to use maximum statutory adult-to-child ratios – despite the impact this could have on the quality of provision.

    One briefing document obtained by the Early Years Alliance reveals that in 2015, civil servants at the DfE estimated the cost of providing a Government-funded early years place for a three- or four-year old would reach £7.49 per child per hour by 2020-21.

    It suggests that providers should ‘become more efficient’ in order to reduce costs.


    https://www.nurseryworld.co.uk/news/article/government-knowingly-underfunded-the-early-years-sector

    The end result of this was not that hard-pressed nurseries 'became more efficient to reduce costs.' They hiked prices for younger children to plug the gaps left by the scheme, or they folded.

    Childcare is like most other things that this Government does. If it's not a priority for wealthy retirees then it gets done on the cheap or it doesn't get done at all.
    “maximum statutory adult-to-child ratios” are higher in this country than anywhere else in Europe, IIRC.

    This gold plating of child care raised the cost to that of private school for those able to use the legit providers.

    And just as in the days when only black cabs were legal in London, everyone else uses unregistered amateur help.

    Unless they are rich enough to afford space for an au pair.
    I would much rather higher quality childcare workers than higher quantity.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,783
    dixiedean said:

    Extremely impressed with Simon Fell MP on World Tonight on the phantom Barrow grooming case.
    Balanced, empathetic, nuanced and utterly focused on his constituents' needs, rather than political advantage and grandstanding.
    He's a Tory MP I could consider voting for.
    Not all Red Wall MP's are like the others.

    Wasn't the Barrow case shamelessly ramped by some of the more excitable Islamophobes on here?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Don't !

    As the Dad of a 10 month old I'm going to be in fucking dreamland if this 1/2 yr old thing appears - it's the hope that kills...
This discussion has been closed.