Immigration and stopping the boats is however a big issue in the redwall and Leave swing seats where the next general election will be won. While Rishi has made gains in the bluewall seats where the economy is most important relative to Boris and Truss he has lost support in those Leave swing seats relative to Boris as there Immigration is a big issue alongside the economy and NHS
If you have digested this poll how can you not see how toxic Johnson is compared to Sunak
The redwall voters on that poll who have switched from Conservative in 2019 to Labour are mainly Leave voters, without degrees and lower middle class or skilled working class.
"Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"
That seems less than ideal..
RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.
Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash. Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
What a coincidence, it was about the same time my mother, father, sister and I, as a baby, hid under a steel table in Manchester when exactly the same thing happened and it actually fell not far away killing six of our neighbours
I bet you and I are the only ones on this forum with this same experience
The sad thing is that there are people in Ukraine today who are basically having the same experience.
Who recalls this today ? (Apart from Vietnam of course.)
#OTD in 1988, Chinese and Vietnamese forces enaged in a fierce skirmish over the ownership of the Johnson South Reef in the highly disputed Spratly Islands. The outgunned Vietnamese lost 3 ships and more than 60 men in the fight. China now occupies the reef and has fortified it. https://twitter.com/NavalInstitute/status/1635665451035361280
It does show the continuity of Chinese policy over several decades. They're on a mission to increase their power regardless of who is in the White House.
Immigration and stopping the boats is however a big issue in the redwall and Leave swing seats where the next general election will be won. While Rishi has made gains in the bluewall seats where the economy is most important relative to Boris and Truss he has lost support in those Leave swing seats relative to Boris as there Immigration is a big issue alongside the economy and NHS
If you have digested this poll how can you not see how toxic Johnson is compared to Sunak
The redwall voters on that poll who have switched from Conservative in 2019 to Labour are mainly Leave voters, without degrees and lower middle class or skilled working class.
Immigration and stopping the boats is however a big issue in the redwall and Leave swing seats where the next general election will be won. While Rishi has made gains in the bluewall seats where the economy is most important relative to Boris and Truss he has lost support in those Leave swing seats relative to Boris as there Immigration is a big issue alongside the economy and NHS
If you have digested this poll how can you not see how toxic Johnson is compared to Sunak
The redwall voters on that poll who have switched from Conservative in 2019 to Labour are mainly Leave voters, without degrees and lower middle class or skilled working class.
Immigration and stopping the boats is however a big issue in the redwall and Leave swing seats where the next general election will be won. While Rishi has made gains in the bluewall seats where the economy is most important relative to Boris and Truss he has lost support in those Leave swing seats relative to Boris as there Immigration is a big issue alongside the economy and NHS
If you have digested this poll how can you not see how toxic Johnson is compared to Sunak
The redwall voters on that poll who have switched from Conservative in 2019 to Labour are mainly Leave voters, without degrees and lower middle class or skilled working class.
Who recalls this today ? (Apart from Vietnam of course.)
#OTD in 1988, Chinese and Vietnamese forces enaged in a fierce skirmish over the ownership of the Johnson South Reef in the highly disputed Spratly Islands. The outgunned Vietnamese lost 3 ships and more than 60 men in the fight. China now occupies the reef and has fortified it. https://twitter.com/NavalInstitute/status/1635665451035361280
It does show the continuity of Chinese policy over several decades. They're on a mission to increase their power regardless of who is in the White House.
Gear change with Xi though.
All the coral reefs are being destroyed as a result of these fortifications as it basically involves ploughing them up. I don't suppose China cares too much but anyone reliant on fishing in the South China Sea might.
It will be interesting to see how they sort out the scheduling at the World Cup. A six-group Euros has 15 combinations of the best four third place teams. A 12-group World Cup will have 495 combinations of the best eight third place teams. Maybe they will do four from the first six groups and four from the second six to narrow down the combinations.
"Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"
That seems less than ideal..
RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.
Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash. Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
What a coincidence, it was about the same time my mother, father, sister and I, as a baby, hid under a steel table in Manchester when exactly the same thing happened and it actually fell not far away killing six of our neighbours
I bet you and I are the only ones on this forum with this same experience
I wouldn’t be at all surprised! We had what was called a Morrison shelter; your steel table, and we ….. my mother, her sister who kept house, my three year old sister and myself…… slept under it for quite a while. Some nights we could hear the bombers over head. There was a bomb on the street next to the school, killing two, and one across the field from my mother’s pharmacy which blew the windows out! That was 1943.
Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (12 March):
Labour 36% (-5) Conservative 34% (+2) Liberal Democrat 23% (+5) Reform UK 4% (–) Green 3% (-2) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 26 Feb
More than a margin of error drop for Labour.
Maybe their position on migrants is being seen as neither fish nor fowl. EIther go hard (Tories) or go soft (LibDems)?
Or it could be that the Lib Dems are campaigning hard ahead of the local elections, and squeezing the Labour vote where it counts.....
Yet the LDs still well behind both the Tories and Labour in bluewall seats, in many of which they were second in 2019 or even first in the locals.
So every vote going from LD to Labour in the bluewall helps the Conservatives
Good try, young HY. Bt I do not think the LDs will be putting the same effort into ALL the Blue Wall seats, only into some of them. Do you happen to know which ones these are?
I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
Blimey.
You've got to sympathise, also, given that in that photo she looks like a clown in bad drag.
Definitely not the same chivalrous champion of downtrodden womanhood who yesterday who criticised me of ageism and sexism for calling someone a silly bag.
Apologies if already posted, but on the BBC news website the announcement that John Eliot Gardiner is to conduct the music at the Coronation is being reported as Dorset Farmer to Conduct Music at Coronation. I really feel that BBC is losing the plot.
Depends if they took it from the Dorset local news ...
With respect to the Kent Doodlebug map (dated September 1944) you can clearly see the concentration of hits along direct flight path from appox Pas de Calais to London, with noticeably fewer north east of line Dover - Maidstone - Gravesend
(Am guess that the latter was NOT named by a real estate agent? Same as Coffin Nail, Kansas!)
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
This is nothing for you to get too excited about Big G. Labour were third in these seats last time out. They just show your guy is scrambling back to parity where Johnson and even May reigned supreme.
I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
Blimey.
You've got to sympathise, also, given that in that photo she looks like a clown in bad drag.
Definitely not the same chivalrous champion of downtrodden womanhood who yesterday who criticised me of ageism and sexism for calling someone a silly bag.
If you read the thread I clearly state I know her (slightly) personally as an instructing solicitor and sympathise with her issues, which were becoming evident when I instructed her, and which her appearance doubtless results from. You were just being a sexist ageist dick because you hate TMay.
"Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"
That seems less than ideal..
RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.
Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash. Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
What a coincidence, it was about the same time my mother, father, sister and I, as a baby, hid under a steel table in Manchester when exactly the same thing happened and it actually fell not far away killing six of our neighbours
I bet you and I are the only ones on this forum with this same experience
I wouldn’t be at all surprised! We had what was called a Morrison shelter; your steel table, and we ….. my mother, her sister who kept house, my three year old sister and myself…… slept under it for quite a while. Some nights we could hear the bombers over head. There was a bomb on the street next to the school, killing two, and one across the field from my mother’s pharmacy which blew the windows out! That was 1943.
Anderson air raid shelters By far the most common 'private' shelters, Anderson shelters were designed to be put up at the bottom of a suburban garden and accommodate up to 6 people. Made up of sheets of corrugated iron, the shelter was designed for easy assembly by the householder. In order to be fully effective, the shelter had to be dug into a 4ft deep pit in the ground, with the soil being heaped on top to provide cover against nearby bomb blasts. Many people planted vegetables on top, making the most of the soil heaped on their makeshift dugouts. Close to 3 million Anderson shelters were erected across Britain during the Second World War.
Anderson shelters tended to become waterlogged in winter, making them freezing cold and deeply unpleasant places to be. In response, the government developed a shelter that could be used within the home.
Morrison air raid shelters The Morrison shelter was effectively a metal cage, in which the occupants would lie until an air raid subsided.
Often doubling as a kitchen table, Morrison shelters were supplied flat-packed for D.I.Y. assembly. That wasn't as easy as it sounds - they had over 300 parts and you'd almost need an engineering degree to put them together correctly. Around 500,000 Morrison shelters were used by the public.
SSI - Hats off to our PB elders! We perch on the shoulders of giants.
"Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"
That seems less than ideal..
RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.
Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash. Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
What a coincidence, it was about the same time my mother, father, sister and I, as a baby, hid under a steel table in Manchester when exactly the same thing happened and it actually fell not far away killing six of our neighbours
I bet you and I are the only ones on this forum with this same experience
Sunak needed to prevent a large chunk of his base disappearing, so stopping the boats (or talking about it) made sense. I assume he will be hoping for wider policy actions to build from later.
I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
Blimey.
You've got to sympathise, also, given that in that photo she looks like a clown in bad drag.
Definitely not the same chivalrous champion of downtrodden womanhood who yesterday who criticised me of ageism and sexism for calling someone a silly bag.
With respect to the Kent Doodlebug map (dated September 1944) you can clearly see the concentration of hits along direct flight path from appox Pas de Calais to London, with noticeably fewer north east of line Dover - Maidstone - Gravesend
(Am guess that the latter was NOT named by a real estate agent? Same as Coffin Nail, Kansas!)
I did a locum in Gravesend once. Grimmest hospital I have worked in. Not much of a town then either, but it was 30 years ago. Probably full of hipsters now.
I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
Blimey.
You've got to sympathise, also, given that in that photo she looks like a clown in bad drag.
Definitely not the same chivalrous champion of downtrodden womanhood who yesterday who criticised me of ageism and sexism for calling someone a silly bag.
If you read the thread I clearly state I know her (slightly) personally as an instructing solicitor and sympathise with her issues, which were becoming evident when I instructed her, and which her appearance doubtless results from. You were just being a sexist ageist dick because you hate TMay.
Yes, the fact that you know someone personally and that you're aware that they have personal issues definitely means that it's 100% fine to attack their appearance - positively encouraged, I'm sure. I'm sure the clown in bad drag would take it all in good part.
The problem for Sunak is that the legislation will fail and we'll still have boat people coming over and he'll be seen as a failure on stopping the boats.
Sure, though thus far promising to stop migration but failing has worked. It's probably run out of road as a solution though.
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
It feels like today just might be a significant day - polling (and in particular leaders and issues polling) suggesting for the first time that Rishi just may have a chance of turning things around.
Very early days, huge way to go, he's still the underdog - but there are signs in these numbers today that he may have turned the corner and be putting in place the foundations to make a recovery.
Leaders and issues ratings potentially being leading indicator of where voting intention will move later on.
What do so-called liberal democrats (in small letters) have to say about the fact that Andrew Tate is effectively being held without trial in Romania? Not interested because he doesn't have the right views, perhaps.
"Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"
That seems less than ideal..
RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.
Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash. Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
What a coincidence, it was about the same time my mother, father, sister and I, as a baby, hid under a steel table in Manchester when exactly the same thing happened and it actually fell not far away killing six of our neighbours
I bet you and I are the only ones on this forum with this same experience
I wouldn’t be at all surprised! We had what was called a Morrison shelter; your steel table, and we ….. my mother, her sister who kept house, my three year old sister and myself…… slept under it for quite a while. Some nights we could hear the bombers over head. There was a bomb on the street next to the school, killing two, and one across the field from my mother’s pharmacy which blew the windows out! That was 1943.
The school shelters were block-built and intended to cope with the school staff and pupils. The primary school I attended had, IRC, four and by the late 40’s were used for kiss-chase or hide and seek.
Sunak needed to prevent a large chunk of his base disappearing, so stopping the boats (or talking about it) made sense. I assume he will be hoping for wider policy actions to build from later.
"Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"
That seems less than ideal..
RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.
Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash. Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
What a coincidence, it was about the same time my mother, father, sister and I, as a baby, hid under a steel table in Manchester when exactly the same thing happened and it actually fell not far away killing six of our neighbours
I bet you and I are the only ones on this forum with this same experience
I wouldn’t be at all surprised! We had what was called a Morrison shelter; your steel table, and we ….. my mother, her sister who kept house, my three year old sister and myself…… slept under it for quite a while. Some nights we could hear the bombers over head. There was a bomb on the street next to the school, killing two, and one across the field from my mother’s pharmacy which blew the windows out! That was 1943.
Anderson air raid shelters By far the most common 'private' shelters, Anderson shelters were designed to be put up at the bottom of a suburban garden and accommodate up to 6 people. Made up of sheets of corrugated iron, the shelter was designed for easy assembly by the householder. In order to be fully effective, the shelter had to be dug into a 4ft deep pit in the ground, with the soil being heaped on top to provide cover against nearby bomb blasts. Many people planted vegetables on top, making the most of the soil heaped on their makeshift dugouts. Close to 3 million Anderson shelters were erected across Britain during the Second World War.
Anderson shelters tended to become waterlogged in winter, making them freezing cold and deeply unpleasant places to be. In response, the government developed a shelter that could be used within the home.
Morrison air raid shelters The Morrison shelter was effectively a metal cage, in which the occupants would lie until an air raid subsided.
Often doubling as a kitchen table, Morrison shelters were supplied flat-packed for D.I.Y. assembly. That wasn't as easy as it sounds - they had over 300 parts and you'd almost need an engineering degree to put them together correctly. Around 500,000 Morrison shelters were used by the public.
SSI - Hats off to our PB elders! We perch on the shoulders of giants.
My mother's top tip was to have some spare clothes packed every night to take to the Anderson shelter when the alarm went. My grandfather had seen too many bombed out in their dressing gowns and didn't want it for his girls. He was often on firewatch duty with broom and buckets of sand on top of the factory during incendary raids.
With respect to the Kent Doodlebug map (dated September 1944) you can clearly see the concentration of hits along direct flight path from appox Pas de Calais to London, with noticeably fewer north east of line Dover - Maidstone - Gravesend
(Am guess that the latter was NOT named by a real estate agent? Same as Coffin Nail, Kansas!)
I did a locum in Gravesend once. Grimmest hospital I have worked in. Not much of a town then either, but it was 30 years ago. Probably full of hipsters now.
Once OKW is tooling around on his fancy new motorized/weaponized wheel-chair, perhaps he could take the ferry over, and conduct walking/rolling tours of doodlebug sites, his old school yard, and other historical highlights?
Note that Rick Steves is right down the road from me! Bet I could get him to give you a plug on his TV show.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
With respect to the Kent Doodlebug map (dated September 1944) you can clearly see the concentration of hits along direct flight path from appox Pas de Calais to London, with noticeably fewer north east of line Dover - Maidstone - Gravesend
(Am guess that the latter was NOT named by a real estate agent? Same as Coffin Nail, Kansas!)
I did a locum in Gravesend once. Grimmest hospital I have worked in. Not much of a town then either, but it was 30 years ago. Probably full of hipsters now.
Once OKW is tooling around on his fancy new motorized/weaponized wheel-chair, perhaps he could take the ferry over, and conduct walking/rolling tours of doodlebug sites, his old school yard, and other historical highlights?
Note that Rick Steves is right down the road from me! Bet I could get him to give you a plug on his TV show.
During the War my grandfather was the Co-op insurance man in Grays and Gravesend. Used to take his bike on the Tilbury ferry.
"Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"
That seems less than ideal..
RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.
Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash. Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
What a coincidence, it was about the same time my mother, father, sister and I, as a baby, hid under a steel table in Manchester when exactly the same thing happened and it actually fell not far away killing six of our neighbours
I bet you and I are the only ones on this forum with this same experience
I wouldn’t be at all surprised! We had what was called a Morrison shelter; your steel table, and we ….. my mother, her sister who kept house, my three year old sister and myself…… slept under it for quite a while. Some nights we could hear the bombers over head. There was a bomb on the street next to the school, killing two, and one across the field from my mother’s pharmacy which blew the windows out! That was 1943.
The school shelters were block-built and intended to cope with the school staff and pupils. The primary school I attended had, IRC, four and by the late 40’s were used for kiss-chase or hide and seek.
Too bad the article did not include any mention or pics of that type of shelter. Which must have been pretty common?
BTW, am more than semi-serious about my tour-guide suggestion. Might not be your cup of tea, but based on PB, have to think that you - and BigG - would be excellent value. To name but two.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
Because of the reality of under-employment which sits below the headline rate. Unemployment numbers are as they are because so many people have stopped working completely. They're not claiming dole, so are not unemployed. But are not employed either. Or are employed not remotely enough hours to have money in their pockets but apparently employed enough to make applying for UC a pointless exercise.
"You've never had it so good" only works if people have never had it so good. Otherwise, we get to witness Lee 30p Anderson bragging about how good things are, then blaming nurses for not getting a better job outside nursing, then attacking people using food banks because its their own fault really.
Nobody who is poor will vote for a government proclaiming that actually they are not poor actually.
Unemployment is now only an issue in inner urban areas and a few grotty northern mill towns and coastal areas.
Bolsover now has lower unemployment than any North London borough - something which would have been unconceivable when Dennis Skinner was in his prime.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
Probably because Labour will simply point out that the figures don't take account of the big increase in economically inactive people sitting on their arses - which the Government can hardly critique them for, given how frequently the Chancellor in particular bemoans the problem - before proceeding to pin much of the blame on the knackered state of the NHS. This is without getting into the small matter of how badly paid and menial a large fraction of jobs are.
I once instructed her and also was an advocate in an ET claim against her. She was at Littleton Chambers. One firm I was at we were not allowed to instruct her again after she told one of our clients to instruct her favourite firm. I’ve been following this for some years and my initial amusement has been tempered by the fact she has severe alcohol issues.
Blimey.
You've got to sympathise, also, given that in that photo she looks like a clown in bad drag.
Definitely not the same chivalrous champion of downtrodden womanhood who yesterday who criticised me of ageism and sexism for calling someone a silly bag.
If you read the thread I clearly state I know her (slightly) personally as an instructing solicitor and sympathise with her issues, which were becoming evident when I instructed her, and which her appearance doubtless results from. You were just being a sexist ageist dick because you hate TMay.
Yes, the fact that you know someone personally and that you're aware that they have personal issues definitely means that it's 100% fine to attack their appearance - positively encouraged, I'm sure. I'm sure the clown in bad drag would take it all in good part.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
Because of the reality of under-employment which sits below the headline rate. Unemployment numbers are as they are because so many people have stopped working completely. They're not claiming dole, so are not unemployed. But are not employed either. Or are employed not remotely enough hours to have money in their pockets but apparently employed enough to make applying for UC a pointless exercise.
"You've never had it so good" only works if people have never had it so good. Otherwise, we get to witness Lee 30p Anderson bragging about how good things are, then blaming nurses for not getting a better job outside nursing, then attacking people using food banks because its their own fault really.
Nobody who is poor will vote for a government proclaiming that actually they are not poor actually.
Unless the government promises to lock up child refugees. Then some of them actually will.
"Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea"
That seems less than ideal..
RAF (and USAAF?) neutralized/mitigated some V-1 buzz bombs in 1944, by gently (one presumes) nudging them with their wing tips, thus abruptly disrupting their fight paths.
Does NOT appear that Mad Vlad's Flying Circus has achieved quite the same level of finesse?
On the walls of country pubs across Kent there used to be, and in at least one I can think of there still is, a map of Kent with black dots indicating where such V1s fell on Kent. There were a lot of them. It had been a free pull out in a commemorative edition of the Kent Messenger back in the 70s.
In Summer 1944 I was in the school playground on Canvey Island when a doodlebug came over and its light went out, indicating it was about to crash. Never saw teachers move so fast, getting us into the shelters!
What a coincidence, it was about the same time my mother, father, sister and I, as a baby, hid under a steel table in Manchester when exactly the same thing happened and it actually fell not far away killing six of our neighbours
I bet you and I are the only ones on this forum with this same experience
I wouldn’t be at all surprised! We had what was called a Morrison shelter; your steel table, and we ….. my mother, her sister who kept house, my three year old sister and myself…… slept under it for quite a while. Some nights we could hear the bombers over head. There was a bomb on the street next to the school, killing two, and one across the field from my mother’s pharmacy which blew the windows out! That was 1943.
The school shelters were block-built and intended to cope with the school staff and pupils. The primary school I attended had, IRC, four and by the late 40’s were used for kiss-chase or hide and seek.
Too bad the article did not include any mention or pics of that type of shelter. Which must have been pretty common?
BTW, am more than semi-serious about my tour-guide suggestion. Might not be your cup of tea, but based on PB, have to think that you - and BigG - would be excellent value. To name but two.
Eldest Grandson is a primary school teacher in Basildon, a few miles away. A couple of years ago I wrote up some of my wartime experiences for his history lesson.
I have no comment on whether we did it (I hope we didn't), but the whoever is writing twattish rebuttals for the MOD needs the sack:
"To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale," the British defence ministry said.
"This invented story, says more about arguments going on inside the Russian government than it does about the West."
It makes us look guilty as sin! It's not even correct English, it's ON an epic scale, not of.
With respect to the Kent Doodlebug map (dated September 1944) you can clearly see the concentration of hits along direct flight path from appox Pas de Calais to London, with noticeably fewer north east of line Dover - Maidstone - Gravesend
(Am guess that the latter was NOT named by a real estate agent? Same as Coffin Nail, Kansas!)
I did a locum in Gravesend once. Grimmest hospital I have worked in. Not much of a town then either, but it was 30 years ago. Probably full of hipsters now.
Once OKW is tooling around on his fancy new motorized/weaponized wheel-chair, perhaps he could take the ferry over, and conduct walking/rolling tours of doodlebug sites, his old school yard, and other historical highlights?
Note that Rick Steves is right down the road from me! Bet I could get him to give you a plug on his TV show.
During the War my grandfather was the Co-op insurance man in Grays and Gravesend. Used to take his bike on the Tilbury ferry.
Actually my father worked for the Prudential Assurance Company
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
It feels like today just might be a significant day - polling (and in particular leaders and issues polling) suggesting for the first time that Rishi just may have a chance of turning things around.
Very early days, huge way to go, he's still the underdog - but there are signs in these numbers today that he may have turned the corner and be putting in place the foundations to make a recovery.
Leaders and issues ratings potentially being leading indicator of where voting intention will move later on.
Forget polls, Starmer is the underdog, not that the Tories deserve another term, but when has that ever stopped them winning
It's worth remembering the "Blue Wall" is not all Con-LD marginals where Labour was third. There are, among the seats sampled, plenty of Con-Lab marginals such as Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Reading West and Wycombe. To be honest, a more accurate term would be "southern wall" as distinct from the Red or northern wall.
With that in mind, the overall numbers in December 2019 were CON 50%, LD 27% and Lab 21% so the turnround has been striking. According to tonight's numbers, the Conservatives are down sixteen, the Liberal Democrats are down six and Labour are up fifteen.
The 15.5% Con-Lab swing is slightly less than reflected in R&W's headline poll numbers for England last evening where the swing was 18% so the assertion the Conservatives are doing less badly in the south than the north looks valid - the Con-LD swing is only 5% compared with 9.5% on the national poll.
It's also worth noting 51% of Labour and 57% of LD supporters would consider a tactical vote.
Michelle Donelan in Chippenham has a majority of 11,300 on the 2019 numbers. On the straight UNS she would hold her seat with a reduced majority with Labour surging forward but still just behind the LDs. IF, however, half the prospective Labour vote switched tactically to the LDs, she would lose her seat and the same would happen if 57% of the LD vote switched to Labour.
Hopefully we'll see some Red or northern wall polling this week as well.
I have no comment on whether we did it (I hope we didn't), but the whoever is writing twattish rebuttals for the MOD needs the sack:
"To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale," the British defence ministry said.
"This invented story, says more about arguments going on inside the Russian government than it does about the West."
It makes us look guilty as sin! It's not even correct English, it's ON an epic scale, not of.
On an epic scale -> Very Many Lies Of an epic scale -> Massive Whoppers
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
Probably because Labour will simply point out that the figures don't take account of the big increase in economically inactive people sitting on their arses - which the Government can hardly critique them for, given how frequently the Chancellor in particular bemoans the problem - before proceeding to pin much of the blame on the knackered state of the NHS. This is without getting into the small matter of how badly paid and menial a large fraction of jobs are.
If people are happy to sit on their arses then its likely either a measure that they've earned so much already that they don't need to work or that the welfare system is so generous.
As for the NHS its workforce has now reached 1.916m up by 188k since December 2019 (and up by 362k since December 2009):
It's worth remembering the "Blue Wall" is not all Con-LD marginals where Labour was third. There are, among the seats sampled, plenty of Con-Lab marginals such as Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Reading West and Wycombe. To be honest, a more accurate term would be "southern wall" as distinct from the Red or northern wall.
With that in mind, the overall numbers in December 2019 were CON 50%, LD 27% and Lab 21% so the turnround has been striking. According to tonight's numbers, the Conservatives are down sixteen, the Liberal Democrats are down six and Labour are up fifteen.
The 15.5% Con-Lab swing is slightly less than reflected in R&W's headline poll numbers for England last evening where the swing was 18% so the assertion the Conservatives are doing less badly in the south than the north looks valid - the Con-LD swing is only 5% compared with 9.5% on the national poll.
It's also worth noting 51% of Labour and 57% of LD supporters would consider a tactical vote.
Michelle Donelan in Chippenham has a majority of 11,300 on the 2019 numbers. On the straight UNS she would hold her seat with a reduced majority with Labour surging forward but still just behind the LDs. IF, however, half the prospective Labour vote switched tactically to the LDs, she would lose her seat and the same would happen if 57% of the LD vote switched to Labour.
Hopefully we'll see some Red or northern wall polling this week as well.
Won't part of the electoral equation be, in many constituencies, Blue/Southern Wall and elsewhere, the extent to which Lab & Lib Dem strategists, candidates AND most especially voters can agree upon, or otherwise thrash out, which opposition option has the best shot of toppling the Tory?
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
It feels like today just might be a significant day - polling (and in particular leaders and issues polling) suggesting for the first time that Rishi just may have a chance of turning things around.
Very early days, huge way to go, he's still the underdog - but there are signs in these numbers today that he may have turned the corner and be putting in place the foundations to make a recovery.
Leaders and issues ratings potentially being leading indicator of where voting intention will move later on.
Lol.
It never ceases to amaze me the amount of blue straw clutching that goes on. 'Very early days' is just a complete joke of a remark. They have had 12 frigging years and they have messed up just about everything. Everyone knows it.
The latest poll has Labour with a 23% lead. It will be a landslide.
There has been a sea-change and no amount of whistling in the wind is going to alter it.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
Because of the reality of under-employment which sits below the headline rate. Unemployment numbers are as they are because so many people have stopped working completely. They're not claiming dole, so are not unemployed. But are not employed either. Or are employed not remotely enough hours to have money in their pockets but apparently employed enough to make applying for UC a pointless exercise.
"You've never had it so good" only works if people have never had it so good. Otherwise, we get to witness Lee 30p Anderson bragging about how good things are, then blaming nurses for not getting a better job outside nursing, then attacking people using food banks because its their own fault really.
Nobody who is poor will vote for a government proclaiming that actually they are not poor actually.
There is a probably a generational thing at play here as well.
For over 45s or so, unemployment was something to be feared. For under 45s working poverty and insecurity is something to be expected for a big chunk of the work force if not the majority, even when unemployment is low.
I have no comment on whether we did it (I hope we didn't), but the whoever is writing twattish rebuttals for the MOD needs the sack:
"To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale," the British defence ministry said.
"This invented story, says more about arguments going on inside the Russian government than it does about the West."
It makes us look guilty as sin! It's not even correct English, it's ON an epic scale, not of.
On an epic scale -> Very Many Lies Of an epic scale -> Massive Whoppers
Either/both would seem to be correct
I don't think that's true. A scale is just a scale. It has to be on it, of it doesn't make sense.
And why say it anyway, it sounds completely ridiculous.
On Topic - Beyond the topline percentage of voters who are concerned about immigration (or any other hot button topic) important to consider the INTENSITY of feeling, as contrasted in some sections of the electorate compared with others.
For example, without seeing any numbers, would expect the issue to register higher on the heat index for small-town geezers than for metro millennials?
Rishi seems to be trying to commit as many of the most trivial offences as possible in an attempt to get into the Guinness Book of records. Firstly being in the wrong place at the wrong time when a cake is served, then not wearing a seat belt, now not having a dog on a lead. Just waiting for him to get done for walking on the cracks in the pavement or wearing a loud shirt in a built up area.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
Probably because Labour will simply point out that the figures don't take account of the big increase in economically inactive people sitting on their arses - which the Government can hardly critique them for, given how frequently the Chancellor in particular bemoans the problem - before proceeding to pin much of the blame on the knackered state of the NHS. This is without getting into the small matter of how badly paid and menial a large fraction of jobs are.
If people are happy to sit on their arses then its likely either a measure that they've earned so much already that they don't need to work or that the welfare system is so generous.
As for the NHS its workforce has now reached 1.916m up by 188k since December 2019 (and up by 362k since December 2009):
Something else the Conservatives should be boasting about.
My point being that enormous NHS waiting lists can and will be used to explain the increase in the numbers of working age people parked on benefits. If, for example, you're someone who's in a physically active occupation, you knacker your knee and you then have to join a three year long waiting list to get it fixed, then you're not on social security because it's a cushy lifestyle choice (which it isn't, benefits are crap,) you're on it because you can't work.
It's not the sole cause of the rise in the economically inactive - minted fiftysomethings with big houses and lots of savings in the bank are, of course, a different matter - but it's the one that the Opposition will weaponize because (a) it is the most damaging and (b) it's something that an awful lot of voters, whether directly or through the travails of friends and relatives, will have lived experience of. I myself have a close relative who is having to pay a small fortune to have necessary surgery privately (and the private hospital she's using is doing a roaring trade in such procedures,) without which she'd be left crippled in an NHS queue for years. That's an everyday story in Britain now. AFAIK the NHS still works (just about) if you need treatment for cancer or something else that's immediately life-threatening - provided that this doesn't involve calling for an ambulance - but for most other purposes it's a postcode lottery, and all too often one in which your ticket features none of the winning numbers.
State healthcare is shagged, and pointing out that the NHS payroll has grown in the last few years isn't going to earn the Government much credit from fed up patients.
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
In many of which the LDs were second, in such seats Labour gains may actually boost the Conservatives as it splits the anti Tory vote
I think an improving poll share for the Tories helps the LibDems in two ways:
a) It makes it more likely that it is a minority Labour government rather than a majority, so more leverage for the LibDems to get PR etc.
b) A closer anticipated result incentivises Labour supporters in marginal Tory/LibDem seats to vote tactically for the LibDems rather than thinking "the Tories don't have a hope so I might as well vote with my heart and vote Labour".
It's worth remembering the "Blue Wall" is not all Con-LD marginals where Labour was third. There are, among the seats sampled, plenty of Con-Lab marginals such as Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Reading West and Wycombe. To be honest, a more accurate term would be "southern wall" as distinct from the Red or northern wall.
With that in mind, the overall numbers in December 2019 were CON 50%, LD 27% and Lab 21% so the turnround has been striking. According to tonight's numbers, the Conservatives are down sixteen, the Liberal Democrats are down six and Labour are up fifteen.
The 15.5% Con-Lab swing is slightly less than reflected in R&W's headline poll numbers for England last evening where the swing was 18% so the assertion the Conservatives are doing less badly in the south than the north looks valid - the Con-LD swing is only 5% compared with 9.5% on the national poll.
It's also worth noting 51% of Labour and 57% of LD supporters would consider a tactical vote.
Michelle Donelan in Chippenham has a majority of 11,300 on the 2019 numbers. On the straight UNS she would hold her seat with a reduced majority with Labour surging forward but still just behind the LDs. IF, however, half the prospective Labour vote switched tactically to the LDs, she would lose her seat and the same would happen if 57% of the LD vote switched to Labour.
Hopefully we'll see some Red or northern wall polling this week as well.
Won't part of the electoral equation be, in many constituencies, Blue/Southern Wall and elsewhere, the extent to which Lab & Lib Dem strategists, candidates AND most especially voters can agree upon, or otherwise thrash out, which opposition option has the best shot of toppling the Tory?
In the absence of any formal electoral pact or alliance, the electorate will create their own as they did in 1997 and to an extent 2015.
It's worth remembering the "Blue Wall" is not all Con-LD marginals where Labour was third. There are, among the seats sampled, plenty of Con-Lab marginals such as Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Reading West and Wycombe. To be honest, a more accurate term would be "southern wall" as distinct from the Red or northern wall.
With that in mind, the overall numbers in December 2019 were CON 50%, LD 27% and Lab 21% so the turnround has been striking. According to tonight's numbers, the Conservatives are down sixteen, the Liberal Democrats are down six and Labour are up fifteen.
The 15.5% Con-Lab swing is slightly less than reflected in R&W's headline poll numbers for England last evening where the swing was 18% so the assertion the Conservatives are doing less badly in the south than the north looks valid - the Con-LD swing is only 5% compared with 9.5% on the national poll.
It's also worth noting 51% of Labour and 57% of LD supporters would consider a tactical vote.
Michelle Donelan in Chippenham has a majority of 11,300 on the 2019 numbers. On the straight UNS she would hold her seat with a reduced majority with Labour surging forward but still just behind the LDs. IF, however, half the prospective Labour vote switched tactically to the LDs, she would lose her seat and the same would happen if 57% of the LD vote switched to Labour.
Hopefully we'll see some Red or northern wall polling this week as well.
Just reflecting on this, in 2019 the South East and particularly remain areas swung Tory much less than elsewhere. The Lib Dems outperformed, expending their vote share widely across the remain regions but not concentrating the vote enough.
It's worth remembering the "Blue Wall" is not all Con-LD marginals where Labour was third. There are, among the seats sampled, plenty of Con-Lab marginals such as Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Reading West and Wycombe. To be honest, a more accurate term would be "southern wall" as distinct from the Red or northern wall.
With that in mind, the overall numbers in December 2019 were CON 50%, LD 27% and Lab 21% so the turnround has been striking. According to tonight's numbers, the Conservatives are down sixteen, the Liberal Democrats are down six and Labour are up fifteen.
The 15.5% Con-Lab swing is slightly less than reflected in R&W's headline poll numbers for England last evening where the swing was 18% so the assertion the Conservatives are doing less badly in the south than the north looks valid - the Con-LD swing is only 5% compared with 9.5% on the national poll.
It's also worth noting 51% of Labour and 57% of LD supporters would consider a tactical vote.
Michelle Donelan in Chippenham has a majority of 11,300 on the 2019 numbers. On the straight UNS she would hold her seat with a reduced majority with Labour surging forward but still just behind the LDs. IF, however, half the prospective Labour vote switched tactically to the LDs, she would lose her seat and the same would happen if 57% of the LD vote switched to Labour.
Hopefully we'll see some Red or northern wall polling this week as well.
Won't part of the electoral equation be, in many constituencies, Blue/Southern Wall and elsewhere, the extent to which Lab & Lib Dem strategists, candidates AND most especially voters can agree upon, or otherwise thrash out, which opposition option has the best shot of toppling the Tory?
Some tactical tightening seems inevitable compared with 2019, if only because the anti-Conservative vote was so inefficient then.
As for how well organised the red and yellow campaigns are going to be, how many seats are there going to be where they are likely to trip over each other? Looking at the list here, https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html, there aren't many Lib Dem targets where you would think Labour would be a problem.
And for Mr and Mrs Voter, it's generally very easy to work out if they are in a Lib Dem target seat. I reckon there are three main tests;
1. Can the view from your home be described as "leafy"? 2. Do you have a cathedral, but not a university? 3. Is it impossible to open your front door for all the Focus leaflets the sandal brigade are delivering?
Twenty gains would be pretty good going, and include some serious stretch targets. I reckon we could draw up a Lib Dem Longlist with a fair degree of consistency and without breaking any secrets.
Rishi seems to be trying to commit as many of the most trivial offences as possible in an attempt to get into the Guinness Book of records. Firstly being in the wrong place at the wrong time when a cake is served, then not wearing a seat belt, now not having a dog on a lead. Just waiting for him to get done for walking on the cracks in the pavement or wearing a loud shirt in a built up area.
I wonder how many of us, if observed attently for a month or so, would not have committed at least one trivial offence.
Until Boris could not bring himself to say sorry for partygate I am not sure these things would have been newsworthy even on a political blog.
I have no comment on whether we did it (I hope we didn't), but the whoever is writing twattish rebuttals for the MOD needs the sack:
"To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale," the British defence ministry said.
"This invented story, says more about arguments going on inside the Russian government than it does about the West."
It makes us look guilty as sin! It's not even correct English, it's ON an epic scale, not of.
On an epic scale -> Very Many Lies Of an epic scale -> Massive Whoppers
Either/both would seem to be correct
I don't think that's true. A scale is just a scale. It has to be on it, of it doesn't make sense.
And why say it anyway, it sounds completely ridiculous.
Speaking as a renowned arbiter of taste AND grammar, think "of" or "on" equally correct, fielder's choice. Though on balance prefer your preferred usage. However, defer to whatever Fowler's has to say about it (the older the edition, the better).
What bugs ME is the "an" in "false claims of an epic scale" which is both superfluous and confusing (mixing singular and plural, at least in my fool head).
BUT as practical matter, Russians will translate however they please? And rather doubt that Putin, for all his English fluency, is gonna fixate on MOD's use of prepositions.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
Because of the reality of under-employment which sits below the headline rate. Unemployment numbers are as they are because so many people have stopped working completely. They're not claiming dole, so are not unemployed. But are not employed either. Or are employed not remotely enough hours to have money in their pockets but apparently employed enough to make applying for UC a pointless exercise.
"You've never had it so good" only works if people have never had it so good. Otherwise, we get to witness Lee 30p Anderson bragging about how good things are, then blaming nurses for not getting a better job outside nursing, then attacking people using food banks because its their own fault really.
Nobody who is poor will vote for a government proclaiming that actually they are not poor actually.
Amongst the better economic news this morning was a continued drop in real terms incomes. Working or not, many people are skint.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
As others have pointed out, it's far more complex than rates of unemployment or even employment. We know there are a lot of jobs going - we know there aren't enough people to fill the vacancies which exist.
We know there are a number of people who choose not to work - and those older people who try to get back into work face, as I mentioned last night, considerable ageism in firms which this Government seems unwilling or unable to do anything about.
Now, in the old days, if we had labour shortages, we'd get in some hard-working immigrants - perhaps we can set up a fleet of small boats from Calais which can bring them in - I wonder if the Home Secretary might support that...
The other side of this is the old problem of productivity - if it's cheaper to replace staff with more staff rather than look at for example automaton or improving business processes through technology, what do you think most companies are going to do?
It's interesting - just as there are those who oversell bad news there are also those who oversell good news.
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
It feels like today just might be a significant day - polling (and in particular leaders and issues polling) suggesting for the first time that Rishi just may have a chance of turning things around.
Very early days, huge way to go, he's still the underdog - but there are signs in these numbers today that he may have turned the corner and be putting in place the foundations to make a recovery.
Leaders and issues ratings potentially being leading indicator of where voting intention will move later on.
Lol.
It never ceases to amaze me the amount of blue straw clutching that goes on. 'Very early days' is just a complete joke of a remark. They have had 12 frigging years and they have messed up just about everything. Everyone knows it.
The latest poll has Labour with a 23% lead. It will be a landslide.
There has been a sea-change and no amount of whistling in the wind is going to alter it.
The polls can only tell us so much. The polls insisted that Theresa May was going to win a landslide until about three weeks before the 2017 election, and we all know what actually happened.
I'll be astonished if the Tories claim less than a third of the popular vote come the next GE, and they'll probably do better than that. They have plenty of time to do more shoring up of the base on issues such as immigration, and especially through bribing well-to-do old people. Labour is hardly helped either by the fact that the political atmosphere is very different to that prevailing in the mid-90s: much greater cynicism, very low trust in politicians generally, precious little faith in the current administration, but precious little enthusiasm for the alternative, either.
I'm no Tory ramper - my best guess remains a Hung Parliament with Labour as largest party - but I won't believe that the Conservatives have been given the boot until I see it for myself.
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
Comments
At this moment, which of the following do Blue Wall voters think would be the better PM for the UK? (12 March)
Rishi Sunak 38% (–)
Keir Starmer 35% (-3)
Don't Know 27% (+3)
Which party do Blue Wall voters trust the most on the economy
Conservatives 30% (+2)
Labour 27% (-5)
Others 18% (-4)
Don't know 25% (+6)
Blue Wall Sunak v Starmer
Sunak leads on
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%)
Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%)
Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%)
Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Hence the Illegal Migration Bill this week being aimed at those voters
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1635657235857649671?t=8Uz8KyCasllWFlRQ0SS1Lw&s=19
Gosh with this and Andy on the WC, what's going on here?
These are seats where Labour were third.
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1635684135942463489?s=20
(This might explain why I lost)
He defended Boris Johnson over partygate by saying NHS staff also let their hair down during lockdown.
There was a bomb on the street next to the school, killing two, and one across the field from my mother’s pharmacy which blew the windows out! That was 1943.
(Am guess that the latter was NOT named by a real estate agent? Same as Coffin Nail, Kansas!)
Anderson air raid shelters
By far the most common 'private' shelters, Anderson shelters were designed to be put up at the bottom of a suburban garden and accommodate up to 6 people. Made up of sheets of corrugated iron, the shelter was designed for easy assembly by the householder. In order to be fully effective, the shelter had to be dug into a 4ft deep pit in the ground, with the soil being heaped on top to provide cover against nearby bomb blasts. Many people planted vegetables on top, making the most of the soil heaped on their makeshift dugouts. Close to 3 million Anderson shelters were erected across Britain during the Second World War.
Anderson shelters tended to become waterlogged in winter, making them freezing cold and deeply unpleasant places to be. In response, the government developed a shelter that could be used within the home.
Morrison air raid shelters
The Morrison shelter was effectively a metal cage, in which the occupants would lie until an air raid subsided.
Often doubling as a kitchen table, Morrison shelters were supplied flat-packed for D.I.Y. assembly. That wasn't as easy as it sounds - they had over 300 parts and you'd almost need an engineering degree to put them together correctly. Around 500,000 Morrison shelters were used by the public.
SSI - Hats off to our PB elders! We perch on the shoulders of giants.
Very early days, huge way to go, he's still the underdog - but there are signs in these numbers today that he may have turned the corner and be putting in place the foundations to make a recovery.
Leaders and issues ratings potentially being leading indicator of where voting intention will move later on.
2016 to 2020 = Build the Wall!
2023 to 2024 = Stop the Boats!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-british-navy-personnel-blew-up-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-2022-10-29/
Note that Rick Steves is right down the road from me! Bet I could get him to give you a plug on his TV show.
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
AND to be fair, damn little difference between UK and UKR. 'r there?
Those who aren't up on this should look at the 2018 religious schism.
And we're a month from Orthodox Easter.
BTW, am more than semi-serious about my tour-guide suggestion. Might not be your cup of tea, but based on PB, have to think that you - and BigG - would be excellent value. To name but two.
"You've never had it so good" only works if people have never had it so good. Otherwise, we get to witness Lee 30p Anderson bragging about how good things are, then blaming nurses for not getting a better job outside nursing, then attacking people using food banks because its their own fault really.
Nobody who is poor will vote for a government proclaiming that actually they are not poor actually.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyunitaryandlocalauthorityexperimental
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/claimantcountbyparliamentaryconstituencyexperimental
Unemployment is now only an issue in inner urban areas and a few grotty northern mill towns and coastal areas.
Bolsover now has lower unemployment than any North London borough - something which would have been unconceivable when Dennis Skinner was in his prime.
"To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale," the British defence ministry said.
"This invented story, says more about arguments going on inside the Russian government than it does about the West."
It makes us look guilty as sin! It's not even correct English, it's ON an epic scale, not of.
It's worth remembering the "Blue Wall" is not all Con-LD marginals where Labour was third. There are, among the seats sampled, plenty of Con-Lab marginals such as Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Reading West and Wycombe. To be honest, a more accurate term would be "southern wall" as distinct from the Red or northern wall.
With that in mind, the overall numbers in December 2019 were CON 50%, LD 27% and Lab 21% so the turnround has been striking. According to tonight's numbers, the Conservatives are down sixteen, the Liberal Democrats are down six and Labour are up fifteen.
The 15.5% Con-Lab swing is slightly less than reflected in R&W's headline poll numbers for England last evening where the swing was 18% so the assertion the Conservatives are doing less badly in the south than the north looks valid - the Con-LD swing is only 5% compared with 9.5% on the national poll.
It's also worth noting 51% of Labour and 57% of LD supporters would consider a tactical vote.
Michelle Donelan in Chippenham has a majority of 11,300 on the 2019 numbers. On the straight UNS she would hold her seat with a reduced majority with Labour surging forward but still just behind the LDs. IF, however, half the prospective Labour vote switched tactically to the LDs, she would lose her seat and the same would happen if 57% of the LD vote switched to Labour.
Hopefully we'll see some Red or northern wall polling this week as well.
Of an epic scale -> Massive Whoppers
Either/both would seem to be correct
As for the NHS its workforce has now reached 1.916m up by 188k since December 2019 (and up by 362k since December 2009):
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/bulletins/publicsectoremployment/december2022
Something else the Conservatives should be boasting about.
Indeed @MikeSmithson
And we have a chronic labour shortage. Set them fruit picking I say.
It never ceases to amaze me the amount of blue straw clutching that goes on. 'Very early days' is just a complete joke of a remark. They have had 12 frigging years and they have messed up just about everything. Everyone knows it.
The latest poll has Labour with a 23% lead. It will be a landslide.
There has been a sea-change and no amount of whistling in the wind is going to alter it.
A bit shorter after the Soviets had finished with him, mind.
For over 45s or so, unemployment was something to be feared.
For under 45s working poverty and insecurity is something to be expected for a big chunk of the work force if not the majority, even when unemployment is low.
And why say it anyway, it sounds completely ridiculous.
And don't call me Shirley.
For example, without seeing any numbers, would expect the issue to register higher on the heat index for small-town geezers than for metro millennials?
Every time I see these segments I find my view of most of the public is that they’re morons and shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near a ballot box .
This forum excluded of course ! Most members here seem to have a functioning brain even when I disagree with their view point.
It's not the sole cause of the rise in the economically inactive - minted fiftysomethings with big houses and lots of savings in the bank are, of course, a different matter - but it's the one that the Opposition will weaponize because (a) it is the most damaging and (b) it's something that an awful lot of voters, whether directly or through the travails of friends and relatives, will have lived experience of. I myself have a close relative who is having to pay a small fortune to have necessary surgery privately (and the private hospital she's using is doing a roaring trade in such procedures,) without which she'd be left crippled in an NHS queue for years. That's an everyday story in Britain now. AFAIK the NHS still works (just about) if you need treatment for cancer or something else that's immediately life-threatening - provided that this doesn't involve calling for an ambulance - but for most other purposes it's a postcode lottery, and all too often one in which your ticket features none of the winning numbers.
State healthcare is shagged, and pointing out that the NHS payroll has grown in the last few years isn't going to earn the Government much credit from fed up patients.
a) It makes it more likely that it is a minority Labour government rather than a majority, so more leverage for the LibDems to get PR etc.
b) A closer anticipated result incentivises Labour supporters in marginal Tory/LibDem seats to vote tactically for the LibDems rather than thinking "the Tories don't have a hope so I might as well vote with my heart and vote Labour".
So come on Rishi! Close the gap.
It won't work everywhere as it didn't then.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_group_migration_2019.html
So if the Brexit distortions are unwinding then I think we’d expect to see smaller swings in the blue wall than in traditional leave areas.
As for how well organised the red and yellow campaigns are going to be, how many seats are there going to be where they are likely to trip over each other? Looking at the list here, https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html, there aren't many Lib Dem targets where you would think Labour would be a problem.
And for Mr and Mrs Voter, it's generally very easy to work out if they are in a Lib Dem target seat. I reckon there are three main tests;
1. Can the view from your home be described as "leafy"?
2. Do you have a cathedral, but not a university?
3. Is it impossible to open your front door for all the Focus leaflets the sandal brigade are delivering?
Twenty gains would be pretty good going, and include some serious stretch targets. I reckon we could draw up a Lib Dem Longlist with a fair degree of consistency and without breaking any secrets.
Edit: On a time delay, obviously
Until Boris could not bring himself to say sorry for partygate I am not sure these things would have been newsworthy even on a political blog.
Or can you afford the latter because of the former? 😀
What bugs ME is the "an" in "false claims of an epic scale" which is both superfluous and confusing (mixing singular and plural, at least in my fool head).
BUT as practical matter, Russians will translate however they please? And rather doubt that Putin, for all his English fluency, is gonna fixate on MOD's use of prepositions.
We know there are a number of people who choose not to work - and those older people who try to get back into work face, as I mentioned last night, considerable ageism in firms which this Government seems unwilling or unable to do anything about.
Now, in the old days, if we had labour shortages, we'd get in some hard-working immigrants - perhaps we can set up a fleet of small boats from Calais which can bring them in - I wonder if the Home Secretary might support that...
The other side of this is the old problem of productivity - if it's cheaper to replace staff with more staff rather than look at for example automaton or improving business processes through technology, what do you think most companies are going to do?
It's interesting - just as there are those who oversell bad news there are also those who oversell good news.
Mostly because I didn't place a single bet.
(for context see: Laverne & Shirley intro:)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hX5OYb_ByYE
I'll be astonished if the Tories claim less than a third of the popular vote come the next GE, and they'll probably do better than that. They have plenty of time to do more shoring up of the base on issues such as immigration, and especially through bribing well-to-do old people. Labour is hardly helped either by the fact that the political atmosphere is very different to that prevailing in the mid-90s: much greater cynicism, very low trust in politicians generally, precious little faith in the current administration, but precious little enthusiasm for the alternative, either.
I'm no Tory ramper - my best guess remains a Hung Parliament with Labour as largest party - but I won't believe that the Conservatives have been given the boot until I see it for myself.
THIS is why we need "Leon" semi-fettered and quasi-free!
Nothing to report so far, but I'm glad long-term pressures on the NHS has come up already.
https://twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1635732385420509213
(Only joking - couldn’t resist!)
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.