Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
It feels like today just might be a significant day - polling (and in particular leaders and issues polling) suggesting for the first time that Rishi just may have a chance of turning things around.
Very early days, huge way to go, he's still the underdog - but there are signs in these numbers today that he may have turned the corner and be putting in place the foundations to make a recovery.
Leaders and issues ratings potentially being leading indicator of where voting intention will move later on.
Lol.
It never ceases to amaze me the amount of blue straw clutching that goes on. 'Very early days' is just a complete joke of a remark. They have had 12 frigging years and they have messed up just about everything. Everyone knows it.
The latest poll has Labour with a 23% lead. It will be a landslide.
There has been a sea-change and no amount of whistling in the wind is going to alter it.
The polls can only tell us so much. The polls insisted that Theresa May was going to win a landslide until about three weeks before the 2017 election, and we all know what actually happened.
I'll be astonished if the Tories claim less than a third of the popular vote come the next GE, and they'll probably do better than that. They have plenty of time to do more shoring up of the base on issues such as immigration, and especially through bribing well-to-do old people. Labour is hardly helped either by the fact that the political atmosphere is very different to that prevailing in the mid-90s: much greater cynicism, very low trust in politicians generally, precious little faith in the current administration, but precious little enthusiasm for the alternative, either.
I'm no Tory ramper - my best guess remains a Hung Parliament with Labour as largest party - but I won't believe that the Conservatives have been given the boot until I see it for myself.
My current best guess is a Labour lead of 8% and a majority of 72.
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
I’ve seen that idea before, and it’s interesting. However would not one side just defend and the other attack?
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
I’ve seen that idea before, and it’s interesting. However would not one side just defend and the other attack?
And what could be more entertaining for extra time than attack v defence?
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
I’ve seen that idea before, and it’s interesting. However would not one side just defend and the other attack?
And what could be more entertaining for extra time than attack v defence?
Would the team who won the penalty shootout get a golden goal to even it out?
So: Penalties winner plays 30 mins extra time: if they score, they win.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
Because of the reality of under-employment which sits below the headline rate. Unemployment numbers are as they are because so many people have stopped working completely. They're not claiming dole, so are not unemployed. But are not employed either. Or are employed not remotely enough hours to have money in their pockets but apparently employed enough to make applying for UC a pointless exercise.
"You've never had it so good" only works if people have never had it so good. Otherwise, we get to witness Lee 30p Anderson bragging about how good things are, then blaming nurses for not getting a better job outside nursing, then attacking people using food banks because its their own fault really.
Nobody who is poor will vote for a government proclaiming that actually they are not poor actually.
Many of us are still rubbing our hands in anticipation of the promised LEE ANDERSON bounce.
Watching the SNP Debate: Humza Wotzit: clinging to their record in government including the wretched DRS scheme Kate Godly: reminds me of Sarah Palin for some reason Ash "who is that" asks Mrs RP: talksat500mphinastreamofconsciousnesswithoutmakingapointicanunderstand
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
I’ve seen that idea before, and it’s interesting. However would not one side just defend and the other attack?
And what could be more entertaining for extra time than attack v defence?
My modest idea - each side loses one player every five minutes until a goal is scored. Once you get to 6 vs 6 you’d definitely get a goal. Not comfortable with penalties, which is just one, rare, skill in the whole game. After all many games are played without a penalty and Bristol City went over a year without being awarded one. Why should pens decide a game?
Watching the SNP Debate: Humza Wotzit: clinging to their record in government including the wretched DRS scheme Kate Godly: reminds me of Sarah Palin for some reason Ash "who is that" asks Mrs RP: talksat500mphinastreamofconsciousnesswithoutmakingapointicanunderstand
Watching the SNP Debate: Humza Wotzit: clinging to their record in government including the wretched DRS scheme Kate Godly: reminds me of Sarah Palin for some reason Ash "who is that" asks Mrs RP: talksat500mphinastreamofconsciousnesswithoutmakingapointicanunderstand
Oh dear. Is this all the SNP have?
Presumably a majority of SNP Members support or have been defending the SNP goverment for some time, it might well be a winning strategy to just defend it even if others would like this to be an opportunity to make some changes.
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
I’ve seen that idea before, and it’s interesting. However would not one side just defend and the other attack?
Well quite possibly but that would be an awesome spectacle.
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
For an extra time variant then the first goal in extra time counts double.
So if team A scores first in extra time then team B has to score twice to win.
Penalties only take place if there are no goals in extra time.
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
I’ve seen that idea before, and it’s interesting. However would not one side just defend and the other attack?
And what could be more entertaining for extra time than attack v defence?
My modest idea - each side loses one player every five minutes until a goal is scored. Once you get to 6 vs 6 you’d definitely get a goal. Not comfortable with penalties, which is just one, rare, skill in the whole game. After all many games are played without a penalty and Bristol City went over a year without being awarded one. Why should pens decide a game?
I agree with his generally, but don’t think FIFA would ever agree to drop pens entirely?
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
It's worth remembering the "Blue Wall" is not all Con-LD marginals where Labour was third. There are, among the seats sampled, plenty of Con-Lab marginals such as Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Reading West and Wycombe. To be honest, a more accurate term would be "southern wall" as distinct from the Red or northern wall.
With that in mind, the overall numbers in December 2019 were CON 50%, LD 27% and Lab 21% so the turnround has been striking. According to tonight's numbers, the Conservatives are down sixteen, the Liberal Democrats are down six and Labour are up fifteen.
The 15.5% Con-Lab swing is slightly less than reflected in R&W's headline poll numbers for England last evening where the swing was 18% so the assertion the Conservatives are doing less badly in the south than the north looks valid - the Con-LD swing is only 5% compared with 9.5% on the national poll.
It's also worth noting 51% of Labour and 57% of LD supporters would consider a tactical vote.
Michelle Donelan in Chippenham has a majority of 11,300 on the 2019 numbers. On the straight UNS she would hold her seat with a reduced majority with Labour surging forward but still just behind the LDs. IF, however, half the prospective Labour vote switched tactically to the LDs, she would lose her seat and the same would happen if 57% of the LD vote switched to Labour.
Hopefully we'll see some Red or northern wall polling this week as well.
Won't part of the electoral equation be, in many constituencies, Blue/Southern Wall and elsewhere, the extent to which Lab & Lib Dem strategists, candidates AND most especially voters can agree upon, or otherwise thrash out, which opposition option has the best shot of toppling the Tory?
Some tactical tightening seems inevitable compared with 2019, if only because the anti-Conservative vote was so inefficient then.
As for how well organised the red and yellow campaigns are going to be, how many seats are there going to be where they are likely to trip over each other? Looking at the list here, https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html, there aren't many Lib Dem targets where you would think Labour would be a problem.
And for Mr and Mrs Voter, it's generally very easy to work out if they are in a Lib Dem target seat. I reckon there are three main tests;
1. Can the view from your home be described as "leafy"? 2. Do you have a cathedral, but not a university? 3. Is it impossible to open your front door for all the Focus leaflets the sandal brigade are delivering?
Twenty gains would be pretty good going, and include some serious stretch targets. I reckon we could draw up a Lib Dem Longlist with a fair degree of consistency and without breaking any secrets.
RC, Episcopal, or C of E cathedral? And do kirks which were last cathedrals in 1690 count? The last is quite important in Scotland, vide St Andrews ...
Watching the SNP Debate: Humza Wotzit: clinging to their record in government including the wretched DRS scheme Kate Godly: reminds me of Sarah Palin for some reason Ash "who is that" asks Mrs RP: talksat500mphinastreamofconsciousnesswithoutmakingapointicanunderstand
Oh dear. Is this all the SNP have?
Stuart Dickson’s got more time on his hands I hear
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
As others have pointed out, it's far more complex than rates of unemployment or even employment. We know there are a lot of jobs going - we know there aren't enough people to fill the vacancies which exist.
We know there are a number of people who choose not to work - and those older people who try to get back into work face, as I mentioned last night, considerable ageism in firms which this Government seems unwilling or unable to do anything about.
Now, in the old days, if we had labour shortages, we'd get in some hard-working immigrants - perhaps we can set up a fleet of small boats from Calais which can bring them in - I wonder if the Home Secretary might support that...
The other side of this is the old problem of productivity - if it's cheaper to replace staff with more staff rather than look at for example automaton or improving business processes through technology, what do you think most companies are going to do?
It's interesting - just as there are those who oversell bad news there are also those who oversell good news.
Many of those problems will he helped by a bit of wage inflation.
I know people will immediately say it will increase prices.
But I think its time we saw a wealth transfer from the old and rich to the young and poor.
And I'd rather do that with higher wages and prices than higher taxes and handouts.
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
For an extra time variant then the first goal in extra time counts double.
So if team A scores first in extra time then team B has to score twice to win.
Penalties only take place if there are no goals in extra time.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
As others have pointed out, it's far more complex than rates of unemployment or even employment. We know there are a lot of jobs going - we know there aren't enough people to fill the vacancies which exist.
We know there are a number of people who choose not to work - and those older people who try to get back into work face, as I mentioned last night, considerable ageism in firms which this Government seems unwilling or unable to do anything about.
Now, in the old days, if we had labour shortages, we'd get in some hard-working immigrants - perhaps we can set up a fleet of small boats from Calais which can bring them in - I wonder if the Home Secretary might support that...
The other side of this is the old problem of productivity - if it's cheaper to replace staff with more staff rather than look at for example automaton or improving business processes through technology, what do you think most companies are going to do?
It's interesting - just as there are those who oversell bad news there are also those who oversell good news.
Many of those problems will he helped by a bit of wage inflation.
I know people will immediately say it will increase prices.
But I think its time we saw a wealth transfer from the old and rich to the young and poor.
And I'd rather do that with higher wages and prices than higher taxes and handouts.
Er, how do they get higher wages? It's sure not happening at present, even with massive inflation. Lower wage increases than price increases isn't wage inflation. It's wage deflation.
They've never 'let him down' by publicly disagreeing with him, so we shall probably never know.
I get that Trump is for bizarre reasons adored by large sections of the GOP base, but it's remarkable how many people have chosen to work for him knowing he won't listen to them, he'll do something crazy, and he'll disavow them at the drop of a hat, even more brutally than usual in politics. Do they think they are going to be the first people he is loyal to, as opposed to just expecting loyalty from them?
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
As others have pointed out, it's far more complex than rates of unemployment or even employment. We know there are a lot of jobs going - we know there aren't enough people to fill the vacancies which exist.
We know there are a number of people who choose not to work - and those older people who try to get back into work face, as I mentioned last night, considerable ageism in firms which this Government seems unwilling or unable to do anything about.
Now, in the old days, if we had labour shortages, we'd get in some hard-working immigrants - perhaps we can set up a fleet of small boats from Calais which can bring them in - I wonder if the Home Secretary might support that...
The other side of this is the old problem of productivity - if it's cheaper to replace staff with more staff rather than look at for example automaton or improving business processes through technology, what do you think most companies are going to do?
It's interesting - just as there are those who oversell bad news there are also those who oversell good news.
Many of those problems will he helped by a bit of wage inflation.
I know people will immediately say it will increase prices.
But I think its time we saw a wealth transfer from the old and rich to the young and poor.
And I'd rather do that with higher wages and prices than higher taxes and handouts.
Er, how do they get higher wages? It's sure not happening at present, even with massive inflation. Lower wage increases than price increases isn't wage inflation. It's wage deflation.
Quite. And that's no changing, at least not any time soon.
We could argue ad infinitum about how much of the problem of intergenerational equity is the fault of the already wealthy using their control of capital to further enrich themselves, and how much of it is down to Governmental interference (e.g. by purposely choking off the supply of homes, to the advantage of favoured voter groups,) but the quickest and most effective solution lies in the hands of the state. Tax incomes less, tax assets more. Better social security for the struggling, fewer tax breaks for the rich.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.
FWIW.
I get that sense too, not from doorsteps but from talking to Tory-inclined colleagues and acquaintances. There’s a chunk of the population who are instinctively right wing, culturally or economically. They have one realistic choice of party in a FPTP system: the Tories.
So long as their party isn’t completely objectionable they will return home. For a while under late Johnson and the Truss interregnum the party was making itself simply too embarrassing to vote for, but now there’s enough just about to get that base back. They will never vote Labour.
Similar to the hard core Lefties but probably a larger bloc. 30-35% I reckon.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
As others have pointed out, it's far more complex than rates of unemployment or even employment. We know there are a lot of jobs going - we know there aren't enough people to fill the vacancies which exist.
We know there are a number of people who choose not to work - and those older people who try to get back into work face, as I mentioned last night, considerable ageism in firms which this Government seems unwilling or unable to do anything about.
Now, in the old days, if we had labour shortages, we'd get in some hard-working immigrants - perhaps we can set up a fleet of small boats from Calais which can bring them in - I wonder if the Home Secretary might support that...
The other side of this is the old problem of productivity - if it's cheaper to replace staff with more staff rather than look at for example automaton or improving business processes through technology, what do you think most companies are going to do?
It's interesting - just as there are those who oversell bad news there are also those who oversell good news.
Many of those problems will he helped by a bit of wage inflation.
I know people will immediately say it will increase prices.
But I think its time we saw a wealth transfer from the old and rich to the young and poor.
And I'd rather do that with higher wages and prices than higher taxes and handouts.
Er, how do they get higher wages? It's sure not happening at present, even with massive inflation. Lower wage increases than price increases isn't wage inflation. It's wage deflation.
Wage inflation inevitably comes with a tight labour market.
And price inflation is going to drop fast as last year's increases drop out.
The one proviso being that the wage increases might go to those who need them least.
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
For an extra time variant then the first goal in extra time counts double.
So if team A scores first in extra time then team B has to score twice to win.
Penalties only take place if there are no goals in extra time.
That's effectively the same as the old golden goal (not quite but damned close). The problem with that was it made both teams very defensive in extra time as there was no realistic way back if you conceded having pushed people forward.
The penalties before extra time is potentially much better - the "winner" on penalties is defensive, but the "loser" is all guns blazing.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
With a 7 week old baby it seems a bit far off but time is passing and the wife will be back at work in Jan. Childcare at the uni is north of £60 a day, so going to be expensive…
Proposal: an amnesty and appeal to both the recently banned and the independently departed to come back. The site is richer with people who aren't here any more, and we are in danger of dropping below a quorum where there are enough people left to make it buzz.
We're still linking to Tweets and articles elsewhere by people like Tim, Cyclefree, David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and others - how do we bring them back? Need to add to our numbers, not keep reducing them
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
As others have pointed out, it's far more complex than rates of unemployment or even employment. We know there are a lot of jobs going - we know there aren't enough people to fill the vacancies which exist.
We know there are a number of people who choose not to work - and those older people who try to get back into work face, as I mentioned last night, considerable ageism in firms which this Government seems unwilling or unable to do anything about.
Now, in the old days, if we had labour shortages, we'd get in some hard-working immigrants - perhaps we can set up a fleet of small boats from Calais which can bring them in - I wonder if the Home Secretary might support that...
The other side of this is the old problem of productivity - if it's cheaper to replace staff with more staff rather than look at for example automaton or improving business processes through technology, what do you think most companies are going to do?
It's interesting - just as there are those who oversell bad news there are also those who oversell good news.
Many of those problems will he helped by a bit of wage inflation.
I know people will immediately say it will increase prices.
But I think its time we saw a wealth transfer from the old and rich to the young and poor.
And I'd rather do that with higher wages and prices than higher taxes and handouts.
Er, how do they get higher wages? It's sure not happening at present, even with massive inflation. Lower wage increases than price increases isn't wage inflation. It's wage deflation.
Wage inflation inevitably comes with a tight labour market.
And price inflation is going to drop fast as last year's increases drop out.
The one proviso being that the wage increases might go to those who need them least.
But a fall in inflation is not enough. Past inflation has done damage. You need an equivalent period of deflation to compensate for the last year or two. (Otherwise, mathematically, it's comparing a differential with an integral of the same basic function of price against time.)
Remember - 20%, actually a bit more, on the cheap food the poorer people buy.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
With a 7 week old baby it seems a bit far off but time is passing and the wife will be back at work in Jan. Childcare at the uni is north of £60 a day, so going to be expensive…
I'm ever so grateful that my parents have provided me with 168 hours a week of free childcare for the last decade.
Been out all day so missed all responses to my World Cup post - thanks for the replies (even though you all disagreed with me!).
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
For an extra time variant then the first goal in extra time counts double.
So if team A scores first in extra time then team B has to score twice to win.
Penalties only take place if there are no goals in extra time.
That's effectively the same as the old golden goal (not quite but damned close). The problem with that was it made both teams very defensive in extra time as there was no realistic way back if you conceded having pushed people forward.
The penalties before extra time is potentially much better - the "winner" on penalties is defensive, but the "loser" is all guns blazing.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.
Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.
Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.
FWIW.
I get that sense too, not from doorsteps but from talking to Tory-inclined colleagues and acquaintances. There’s a chunk of the population who are instinctively right wing, culturally or economically. They have one realistic choice of party in a FPTP system: the Tories.
So long as their party isn’t completely objectionable they will return home. For a while under late Johnson and the Truss interregnum the party was making itself simply too embarrassing to vote for, but now there’s enough just about to get that base back. They will never vote Labour.
Similar to the hard core Lefties but probably a larger bloc. 30-35% I reckon.
Agree with the premise but I don’t think the percentage is quite that high.
They've never 'let him down' by publicly disagreeing with him, so we shall probably never know.
I get that Trump is for bizarre reasons adored by large sections of the GOP base, but it's remarkable how many people have chosen to work for him knowing he won't listen to them, he'll do something crazy, and he'll disavow them at the drop of a hat, even more brutally than usual in politics. Do they think they are going to be the first people he is loyal to, as opposed to just expecting loyalty from them?
Power attracts etc.
But it seems that well has been drained to the muddy slime at the bottom.
Trump's base now is the self-pitying who want to blame and destroy the system rather than control it.
DeSantis by contrast is attractive to those who want to control the system and enact policies when they have done so.
There's, to my mind, quite a difference between the two which could lead to severe fighting between the two groups.
On topic, I think Sunak has little option but to focus on this issue. The economic dice are cast to a large extent - Hunt is competent but people just won't feel the glow of economic joy in the near future. The NHS is enormously costly and slow to make serious progress on, and Labour have a huge in-built advantage.
Ultimately, I don't agree with Sunak on this, but I see politically why he's not got many other options.
Proposal: an amnesty and appeal to both the recently banned and the independently departed to come back. The site is richer with people who aren't here any more, and we are in danger of dropping below a quorum where there are enough people left to make it buzz.
We're still linking to Tweets and articles elsewhere by people like Tim, Cyclefree, David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and others - how do we bring them back? Need to add to our numbers, not keep reducing them
The problem is that some of the banned contribute to a toxic atmos that keeps the others away. Meeks went a bit mad over Brexit, and was nasty to others before departing. Cyclefree is probably just planting plants or enjoying Cumbria. I get the sense that some of the recent bans are indeed irritation rather than blatant offences. I’m sure they will be back.
Proposal: an amnesty and appeal to both the recently banned and the independently departed to come back. The site is richer with people who aren't here any more, and we are in danger of dropping below a quorum where there are enough people left to make it buzz.
We're still linking to Tweets and articles elsewhere by people like Tim, Cyclefree, David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and others - how do we bring them back? Need to add to our numbers, not keep reducing them
Agreed. Stuart, Horse and Leon might differ hugely politically but all are interesting off-the-cuff posters. They share a common trait of being intemperate at times: who cares?
Are we going to ban @malcolmg ? On paper, the rudest poster on PB. I very much hope not!
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
It's a good policy but I suspect it will be rather modest in scope, and it wouldn't surprise me if many don't qualify due to income.
It's expensive.
I hope I'm surprised. The logical thing to do is for Hunt to come up with a package of measures all designed to get people back into work to re-expand employment and the tax base.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
With a 7 week old baby it seems a bit far off but time is passing and the wife will be back at work in Jan. Childcare at the uni is north of £60 a day, so going to be expensive…
I'm ever so grateful that my parents have provided me with 168 hours a week of free childcare for the last decade.
Only the lastd decade? You must be even younger than I thought.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
With a 7 week old baby it seems a bit far off but time is passing and the wife will be back at work in Jan. Childcare at the uni is north of £60 a day, so going to be expensive…
I'm ever so grateful that my parents have provided me with 168 hours a week of free childcare for the last decade.
My mother says she is very keen to see lots of Tubbs junior but when I dangled the daycare in front of her at the weekend there was no nibble. Suspect she’s thinking more an hour here and there, sadly!
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.
FWIW.
Agreed. People are noticing Rishi is really good.
So why didn't Conservative members when they had the choice between Sunak and Truss ?
Listening to the SNP leader debate Kate Forbes is head and shoulders above the other two
If she wins Scons could have s real problem
Agreed. Regan is painfully bad. Yousaf thinks the government needs to tell people harder why they are wrong if they don't think they are brilliant. Forbes is credible as a candidate, though she's likely to be divisive amongst the members.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
How will the Guardian afford this? Are they finally going to put their website behind a paywall?
They are saying that Hunt will announce it in the Budget.
Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
Nah, this is a policy that will eventually pay for itself due to higher labour force participation and an increase in the fertility rate and all of the extra spending it comes with.
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.
FWIW.
Agreed. People are noticing Rishi is really good.
So why didn't Conservative members when they had the choice between Sunak and Truss ?
A very good question. Some got too high on their own supply taking their lines directly from the Mail/Express.
Worth noting Rishi ran her much closer than expected though, even then.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
With a 7 week old baby it seems a bit far off but time is passing and the wife will be back at work in Jan. Childcare at the uni is north of £60 a day, so going to be expensive…
I'm ever so grateful that my parents have provided me with 168 hours a week of free childcare for the last decade.
My mother says she is very keen to see lots of Tubbs junior but when I dangled the daycare in front of her at the weekend there was no nibble. Suspect she’s thinking more an hour here and there, sadly!
My parents have only wanted two things in life, children and grandchildren, although they have started recently muttering about great grandchildren, I absolutely refuse to countenance the fact I could legally be a grandfather in three years.
Other thing I did, moved back in with my parents when my marriage was falling apart.
I disagree with the header, I think this is the right policy for Sunak to win the next election. The fact that it's not popular in safe Labour seats doesn't matter under FPTP.
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.
FWIW.
I get that sense too, not from doorsteps but from talking to Tory-inclined colleagues and acquaintances. There’s a chunk of the population who are instinctively right wing, culturally or economically. They have one realistic choice of party in a FPTP system: the Tories.
So long as their party isn’t completely objectionable they will return home. For a while under late Johnson and the Truss interregnum the party was making itself simply too embarrassing to vote for, but now there’s enough just about to get that base back. They will never vote Labour.
Similar to the hard core Lefties but probably a larger bloc. 30-35% I reckon.
John Major salvaged just shy of 31% of the vote in 1997; the median age of the UK population has increased by about four years since then; and the growth in house prices has greatly outstripped that of earned incomes. I'm convinced that the Conservatives will be spared a drubbing by the backing of the grey vote.
Can work well with foreign leaders (44% | 29%) Can build a strong economy (42% | 29%) Is a strong leader (33% | 31%)
Starmer leads on:
Cares about people like me (36% | 27%) Can bring British people together (36% | 32%)
RedfieldWilton
Yes, the Tories are going to get gubbed,
These are seats where Labour were third.
I'm not so sure now, the mood among my previously Tory voting friends is definitely changing. Especially wrt Rishi, the NI deal has helped a lot and, given who I know, the swift handling of a potentially economy breaking bank failure has gained him a lot of credit.
The economy is definitely turning around as well and it's being noticed by ordinary people IMO. I think all of the predictions of 2 year long recessions and other various doom predictions has also helped Rishi because none of it has materialised and it is unlikely to do so.
Overall I'd rate 1992 as an unlikely rather than impossible outcome which is a marked change from just last month.
On the doorsteps, I'm finding those that always hated the Tories now REALLY hate the Tories; the previous Tory vote is holding surprisingly well, especially for the council elections. Those who voted in the past who are underwhelmed are still hoping there will be a rise in their performance, to give them a reason to vote Tory again.
FWIW.
Agreed. People are noticing Rishi is really good.
So why didn't Conservative members when they had the choice between Sunak and Truss ?
A very good question. Some got too high on their own supply taking their lines directly from the Mail/Express.
Worth noting Rishi ran her much closer than expected though, even then.
Yes, if we'd had accurate polling of how close the race actually was I think Rishi may actually have won. Loads of members expected a blowout IMO and voted accordingly.
I disagree with the header, I think this is the right policy for Sunak to win the next election. The fact that it's not popular in safe Labour seats doesn't matter under FPTP.
In the short term it might well help to shore up the core vote; in the medium term he may have trouble explaining why it isn't working.
Listening to the SNP leader debate Kate Forbes is head and shoulders above the other two
If she wins Scons could have s real problem
Been saying this for a while. If she wins I am really not sure there will be any Tory MPs from Scotland in the next Parliament. Might be quite a few more Scottish Labour MPs though.
WHICH WAY is the extreme Cornish Nationalist vote likely to swing?
THIS is why we need "Leon" semi-fettered and quasi-free!
The absence of Leon and Dickson does remove a certain level of stress from the board. It’s a bit more friendly
Oh no! What did PB's most celebrated Anglophile do to merit the ban hammer?
He was a little impolite about the mods I think. But you’d better ask them.
Rumour has it that he used a Python script to mash up unweighted Scottish subsamples with a Radiohead backing track, and an advert for Domino’s pineapple pizza.
Biggest thing Tories need to do (probably impossible) is slash energy, fuel and mortgage costs.
Kiboshing inflation is the best tax cut there is.
I think by the summer the inflation rate falls to ca. 4% as a lot of the rises fall out of the calculation and since then fuel and energy prices have been stable and mortgage costs aren't included in CPI so what we'll have is the downstream price rises caused by fuel and energy costs rising last year which are going to be smaller anyway.
Heading into winter we might have had 4-6 months of high real terms wage growth.
Proposal: an amnesty and appeal to both the recently banned and the independently departed to come back. The site is richer with people who aren't here any more, and we are in danger of dropping below a quorum where there are enough people left to make it buzz.
We're still linking to Tweets and articles elsewhere by people like Tim, Cyclefree, David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and others - how do we bring them back? Need to add to our numbers, not keep reducing them
Agreed. Stuart, Horse and Leon might differ hugely politically but all are interesting off-the-cuff posters. They share a common trait of being intemperate at times: who cares?
Are we going to ban @malcolmg ? On paper, the rudest poster on PB. I very much hope not!
Let’s avoid cancel culture on here.
Malc’s rude in a comical, Father Jack, kind of way. I think he’s safe. We need our village idiot.
Leon was making defamatory allegations about the Crisp Salesman.
Dickson was inexplicably and incredibly rude about the team running the site. Given his dislike of the people who write above the line, the BTL posters, and the English (who make up the majority of posters) it is incredible to me why he kept on posting here.
I missed CHB’s third incarnation getting the hook.
On that topic my nom de plume, Doug Seal, was chosen as it was an actual sock puppet. I owned a seal sock puppet I named Douglas. An in joke so “in” no one else could possibly understand it.
I disagree with the header, I think this is the right policy for Sunak to win the next election. The fact that it's not popular in safe Labour seats doesn't matter under FPTP.
What does your main man Matt ‘Godwin’ Goodwin think?
I disagree with the header, I think this is the right policy for Sunak to win the next election. The fact that it's not popular in safe Labour seats doesn't matter under FPTP.
In the short term it might well help to shore up the core vote; in the medium term he may have trouble explaining why it isn't working.
See these comments from Dan Hodges;
What’s clear from the debate this evening is Ministers are simply not across the detail of their own legislation. It’s a political punt. And if it doesn’t come off, the Government will reap the whirlwind.
Interesting first test for the Government. On 7 March Ministers briefed anyone arriving by small boat "from today" would be deported within 28 days. On Saturday 51 migrants arrived on a small boat. Let's see if they're all deported by 8 April.
The last week or so has been the relatively easy bit; getting the Windsor Agreement agreed and the Immigration bill through its first Commons stage. But the expectation has to be that the first makes life easier across the whole UK-EU relationship and the second actually stops the boats.
Without on-the-ground improvements, these announcements will only go so far.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
As others have pointed out, it's far more complex than rates of unemployment or even employment. We know there are a lot of jobs going - we know there aren't enough people to fill the vacancies which exist.
We know there are a number of people who choose not to work - and those older people who try to get back into work face, as I mentioned last night, considerable ageism in firms which this Government seems unwilling or unable to do anything about.
Now, in the old days, if we had labour shortages, we'd get in some hard-working immigrants - perhaps we can set up a fleet of small boats from Calais which can bring them in - I wonder if the Home Secretary might support that...
The other side of this is the old problem of productivity - if it's cheaper to replace staff with more staff rather than look at for example automaton or improving business processes through technology, what do you think most companies are going to do?
It's interesting - just as there are those who oversell bad news there are also those who oversell good news.
Many of those problems will he helped by a bit of wage inflation.
I know people will immediately say it will increase prices.
But I think its time we saw a wealth transfer from the old and rich to the young and poor.
And I'd rather do that with higher wages and prices than higher taxes and handouts.
Er, how do they get higher wages? It's sure not happening at present, even with massive inflation. Lower wage increases than price increases isn't wage inflation. It's wage deflation.
Wage inflation inevitably comes with a tight labour market.
And price inflation is going to drop fast as last year's increases drop out.
The one proviso being that the wage increases might go to those who need them least.
But a fall in inflation is not enough. Past inflation has done damage. You need an equivalent period of deflation to compensate for the last year or two. (Otherwise, mathematically, it's comparing a differential with an integral of the same basic function of price against time.)
Remember - 20%, actually a bit more, on the cheap food the poorer people buy.
The unskilled poor will continue to struggle - the young will have better opportunities from a tighter labour market.
And its the young who have my sympathy.
I'd be interested on how much product substitution has taken place.
I'm not short of money but I'm using a lot more own brands etc without noticing a difference anything more irksome than having to use a tin opener occassionally.
Of course there's a limit to how much product substitution can be done but the effective inflation rate many people have experienced is going to be way less than others.
Likewise on housing - mortgage and rent increases are things many millions only read about rather than experience.
The Guardian suggesting free childcare to be extended down to 1 and 2 year olds. Would be a huge, huge policy. I hope they extend to 35h and for outside of term time too. It will remove a huge barrier to getting people back into work. Though we don't qualify we know a lot of our friends where the wife is working part time or taking a career break because childcare is so expensive for them. My sister does a 3 day week at the moment, I think she'd easily push up to 4 days if childcare costs went down.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
With a 7 week old baby it seems a bit far off but time is passing and the wife will be back at work in Jan. Childcare at the uni is north of £60 a day, so going to be expensive…
I'm ever so grateful that my parents have provided me with 168 hours a week of free childcare for the last decade.
And there's me thinking that you were a fully-grown adult.
Notice the word which doesn't appear in that list of important issues ?
Unemployment.
From the ONS today:
For the three months ending January 2023, the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were in the West Midlands and London (4.5%) and the lowest was in the South West (2.3%); the North East (4.1%), Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%) and Scotland (3.1%) all saw record-low unemployment rates for their region.
Why the Conservatives aren't boasting about this baffles me.
As others have pointed out, it's far more complex than rates of unemployment or even employment. We know there are a lot of jobs going - we know there aren't enough people to fill the vacancies which exist.
We know there are a number of people who choose not to work - and those older people who try to get back into work face, as I mentioned last night, considerable ageism in firms which this Government seems unwilling or unable to do anything about.
Now, in the old days, if we had labour shortages, we'd get in some hard-working immigrants - perhaps we can set up a fleet of small boats from Calais which can bring them in - I wonder if the Home Secretary might support that...
The other side of this is the old problem of productivity - if it's cheaper to replace staff with more staff rather than look at for example automaton or improving business processes through technology, what do you think most companies are going to do?
It's interesting - just as there are those who oversell bad news there are also those who oversell good news.
Many of those problems will he helped by a bit of wage inflation.
I know people will immediately say it will increase prices.
But I think its time we saw a wealth transfer from the old and rich to the young and poor.
And I'd rather do that with higher wages and prices than higher taxes and handouts.
Er, how do they get higher wages? It's sure not happening at present, even with massive inflation. Lower wage increases than price increases isn't wage inflation. It's wage deflation.
Wage inflation inevitably comes with a tight labour market.
And price inflation is going to drop fast as last year's increases drop out.
The one proviso being that the wage increases might go to those who need them least.
But a fall in inflation is not enough. Past inflation has done damage. You need an equivalent period of deflation to compensate for the last year or two. (Otherwise, mathematically, it's comparing a differential with an integral of the same basic function of price against time.)
Remember - 20%, actually a bit more, on the cheap food the poorer people buy.
The unskilled poor will continue to struggle - the young will have better opportunities from a tighter labour market.
And its the young who have my sympathy.
I'd be interested on how much product substitution has taken place.
I'm not short of money but I'm using a lot more own brands etc without noticing a difference anything more irksome than having to use a tin opener occassionally.
Of course there's a limit to how much product substitution can be done but the effective inflation rate many people have experienced is going to be way less than others.
Likewise on housing - mortgage and rent increases are things many millions only read about rather than experience.
It's not a simple matter of product substitution, but of often noit being able to get even the cheapest stuff any more, or at a higher price. That's why the Which studies have been so interestding.
WHICH WAY is the extreme Cornish Nationalist vote likely to swing?
THIS is why we need "Leon" semi-fettered and quasi-free!
The absence of Leon and Dickson does remove a certain level of stress from the board. It’s a bit more friendly
Oh no! What did PB's most celebrated Anglophile do to merit the ban hammer?
He was a little impolite about the mods I think. But you’d better ask them.
Rumour has it that he used a Python script to mash up unweighted Scottish subsamples with a Radiohead backing track, and an advert for Domino’s pineapple pizza.
It spends too much time virtue-signalling about it, not enough time doing stuff about it and some of the stuff it does do (like on e-vehicles) is actively damaging our car industry. The electricity generation path is more or less ok - but 5 years behind path - the home heating/insulation utter fantasy, the meat shaming stuff offensive and polarising and the rest is just hectoring.
Biggest thing Tories need to do (probably impossible) is slash energy, fuel and mortgage costs.
Kiboshing inflation is the best tax cut there is.
Useless to the Tories on two counts:
1. A long-term project, and political parties generally are rarely interested in doing anything useful that won't bear fruit within the current electoral cycle 2. Involves doing things - greatly increasing electricity generation capacity, especially from renewables, and building lots and lots and lots of new houses - that their elderly Nimby base are going to loathe
I disagree with the header, I think this is the right policy for Sunak to win the next election. The fact that it's not popular in safe Labour seats doesn't matter under FPTP.
Since the policy’s been announced Labour’s turned that frown upside down…
Comments
Heathener has more identities even than @SeanT. Indeed, some say she IS @SeanT
I hope it is much closer.
One ancillary point I did agree with was that of @tlg86 who suggested penalties should be taken before extra time and used as a decider if extra time was itself indecisive.
A GREAT idea.
So: Penalties winner plays 30 mins extra time: if they score, they win.
Other team must win extra time with clean sheet.
Humza Wotzit: clinging to their record in government including the wretched DRS scheme
Kate Godly: reminds me of Sarah Palin for some reason
Ash "who is that" asks Mrs RP: talksat500mphinastreamofconsciousnesswithoutmakingapointicanunderstand
Oh dear. Is this all the SNP have?
Not comfortable with penalties, which is just one, rare, skill in the whole game. After all many games are played without a penalty and Bristol City went over a year without being awarded one. Why should pens decide a game?
So if team A scores first in extra time then team B has to score twice to win.
Penalties only take place if there are no goals in extra time.
FWIW.
Additionally it's a good policy to try and get families to have one more child.
Edit: anjd Orkney too.
I know people will immediately say it will increase prices.
But I think its time we saw a wealth transfer from the old and rich to the young and poor.
And I'd rather do that with higher wages and prices than higher taxes and handouts.
I get that Trump is for bizarre reasons adored by large sections of the GOP base, but it's remarkable how many people have chosen to work for him knowing he won't listen to them, he'll do something crazy, and he'll disavow them at the drop of a hat, even more brutally than usual in politics. Do they think they are going to be the first people he is loyal to, as opposed to just expecting loyalty from them?
A leaked letter in connection with the abolition of the BBC Singers - which names names and contains very strong criticism of BBC management.
https://slippedisc.com/2023/03/leaked-letter-a-toxic-culture-of-fear-and-paranoia-at-the-bbc-from-the-d-g-down/
All for the same reason? Subsampling? Or what??
We could argue ad infinitum about how much of the problem of intergenerational equity is the fault of the already wealthy using their control of capital to further enrich themselves, and how much of it is down to Governmental interference (e.g. by purposely choking off the supply of homes, to the advantage of favoured voter groups,) but the quickest and most effective solution lies in the hands of the state. Tax incomes less, tax assets more. Better social security for the struggling, fewer tax breaks for the rich.
I'd better watch out.
So long as their party isn’t completely objectionable they will return home. For a while under late Johnson and the Truss interregnum the party was making itself simply too embarrassing to vote for, but now there’s enough just about to get that base back. They will never vote Labour.
Similar to the hard core Lefties but probably a larger bloc. 30-35% I reckon.
And price inflation is going to drop fast as last year's increases drop out.
The one proviso being that the wage increases might go to those who need them least.
On that basis, I’d have been treble-banned by @TheScreamingEagles seven times in just the last day.
The penalties before extra time is potentially much better - the "winner" on penalties is defensive, but the "loser" is all guns blazing.
We're still linking to Tweets and articles elsewhere by people like Tim, Cyclefree, David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and others - how do we bring them back? Need to add to our numbers, not keep reducing them
Remember - 20%, actually a bit more, on the cheap food the poorer people buy.
Tax and spend, spend and tax - the Tory way these days.
If she wins Scons could have s real problem
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/mar/14/working-parents-childcare-costs-jeremy-hunt-budget
But it seems that well has been drained to the muddy slime at the bottom.
Trump's base now is the self-pitying who want to blame and destroy the system rather than control it.
DeSantis by contrast is attractive to those who want to control the system and enact policies when they have done so.
There's, to my mind, quite a difference between the two which could lead to severe fighting between the two groups.
Ultimately, I don't agree with Sunak on this, but I see politically why he's not got many other options.
I get the sense that some of the recent bans are indeed irritation rather than blatant offences. I’m sure they will be back.
Are we going to ban @malcolmg ? On paper, the rudest poster on PB. I very much hope not!
Let’s avoid cancel culture on here.
It's expensive.
I hope I'm surprised. The logical thing to do is for Hunt to come up with a package of measures all designed to get people back into work to re-expand employment and the tax base.
Some were banned for dropping the C bomb (at other posters), some for posting stuff that will get OGH into trouble, some for being rude about OGH.
As a general rule, those get you into trouble.
OGH and RCS spend a lot of time and money so we can all post in real time, it isn't wise to abuse that hospitality.
Worth noting Rishi ran her much closer than expected though, even then.
Other thing I did, moved back in with my parents when my marriage was falling apart.
Have you noticed people who put pineapple on pizza or think Die Hard is a Christmas film can post freely on here.
When Liverpool lose a match is also a fun time.
Kiboshing inflation is the best tax cut there is.
https://britain.unherd.com/net-zero/
My earliest memories of the England football team was Lineker at Mexico 86.
Heading into winter we might have had 4-6 months of high real terms wage growth.
Leon was making defamatory allegations about the Crisp Salesman.
Dickson was inexplicably and incredibly rude about the team running the site. Given his dislike of the people who write above the line, the BTL posters, and the English (who make up the majority of posters) it is incredible to me why he kept on posting here.
I missed CHB’s third incarnation getting the hook.
On that topic my nom de plume, Doug Seal, was chosen as it was an actual sock puppet. I owned a seal sock puppet I named Douglas. An in joke so “in” no one else could possibly understand it.
What’s clear from the debate this evening is Ministers are simply not across the detail of their own legislation. It’s a political punt. And if it doesn’t come off, the Government will reap the whirlwind.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1635361508057284608
Interesting first test for the Government. On 7 March Ministers briefed anyone arriving by small boat "from today" would be deported within 28 days. On Saturday 51 migrants arrived on a small boat. Let's see if they're all deported by 8 April.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1635568146462515204
The last week or so has been the relatively easy bit; getting the Windsor Agreement agreed and the Immigration bill through its first Commons stage. But the expectation has to be that the first makes life easier across the whole UK-EU relationship and the second actually stops the boats.
Without on-the-ground improvements, these announcements will only go so far.
And its the young who have my sympathy.
I'd be interested on how much product substitution has taken place.
I'm not short of money but I'm using a lot more own brands etc without noticing a difference anything more irksome than having to use a tin opener occassionally.
Of course there's a limit to how much product substitution can be done but the effective inflation rate many people have experienced is going to be way less than others.
Likewise on housing - mortgage and rent increases are things many millions only read about rather than experience.
Upstanding, law-abiding citizen. I adore the man.
https://www.which.co.uk/reviews/supermarkets/article/whats-happening-to-supermarket-food-prices-aU2oV0A46tu3
Is what I would say.
1. A long-term project, and political parties generally are rarely interested in doing anything useful that won't bear fruit within the current electoral cycle
2. Involves doing things - greatly increasing electricity generation capacity, especially from renewables, and building lots and lots and lots of new houses - that their elderly Nimby base are going to loathe
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
TSE’s legendary modesty simply would not allow him to take it personally.