The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
A few of those not selected though so far were for safe seats like Damian Green for Weald of Kent
I think Sunak would deserve plaudits for facing down the ERG and DUP to deliver a deal the majority in Northern Ireland clearly wants. After all, there is no NIP deal the loons will accept because the only acceptable deal for them is one the EU would never do. And Sunak has clearly won meaningful concessions by not being the confrontational idiots Johnson, Frost and Truss were.
If Sunak does go ahead without their support, I think it will help his own ratings immensely. But I don’t see how it would do anything other than tear the Tories even further apart.
That’s why I still have my doubts he’ll do it. But I hope I’m wrong. Some things are too important for partisanship. Ukraine is one, a better relationship with the EU is another.
Sunak has nothing to lose staring down Johnson and the ERG. Come the May elections they will be making hay of the results and shoehorning Johnson back into No 10 anyway. The DUP are not as relevant as Mrs May made them, so call their bluff too
Johnson made personal support for himself as a mark of loyalty to the Conservative Party in Autumn 2019, Sunak should do the same, "support my plan or you're out". OK so he might then have a minority government, but he could remind them if he calls a snap election the availability of Sub-Postmaster roles for former Conservative MPs are not as plentiful as they once were
If he could do a Johnson, withdraw the whip from the malcontents, and then calls a snap election where they can’t stand, whatever the result he will have done the country a considerable service.
He won’t do it, of course.
Speaking of great services, if Cummings escapes criminal sanction for his lunatic actions while under quarantine and his patent lies to cover them up, while getting locked up for doing his best procure LFTs, I think I will actually wet myself laughing.
As I said yesterday about Putin, karma’s only a bitch if you are.
I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.
But a result like this would help, it certainly would.
Sunak's problem is clear.
The Tory party has become the mirror image of Labour. I have generally voted Tory in GEs for 50 years. Through Blair and everything else. Now I won't. Why?
Labour go through phases of being electable - like now. And other phases. In the other times the leadership and/or dominant groups render it unacceptable for centrist non-populist One Nation voters to vote for them. They then NEVER win. Not once.
Tory membership, MPs and voters now include a substantial group of populist, amoral, illiberal and divisive people. Some in the cabinet. The sort who make it impossible for centrists to vote for them.
Just like Labour always have to choose between leftish populism and winning, so the Tories are now their mirror.
I was certainly a lot more comfortable with the socially liberal, fiscally conservative government of the Coalition and Cameron+Osborne. I do fear that that party has moved a long way from that with the nutters that were in the ERG much more dominant. This is unfortunate, to say the least. Sunak is a step back in the right direction but he still seems to be at their beck and call. If he can face them down on the protocol that would be a very good start on the journey back to being an electable party again.
I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.
But a result like this would help, it certainly would.
Sunak's problem is clear.
The Tory party has become the mirror image of Labour. I have generally voted Tory in GEs for 50 years. Through Blair and everything else. Now I won't. Why?
Labour go through phases of being electable - like now. And other phases. In the other times the leadership and/or dominant groups render it unacceptable for centrist non-populist One Nation voters to vote for them. They then NEVER win. Not once.
Tory membership, MPs and voters now include a substantial group of populist, amoral, illiberal and divisive people. Some in the cabinet. The sort who make it impossible for centrists to vote for them.
Just like Labour always have to choose between leftish populism and winning, so the Tories are now their mirror.
Bonar Law, Joseph Chamberlain, Enoch Powell, IDS and arguably Hague in 2001. There have been plenty of rightwing populists at the top of the Tories in the past too, some even leading it
“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.” https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562
This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.
People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...
This contract took place in July 2020. At that time Britain was opened up, indeed our PM was encouraging us to "eat out to help out". It wasn't in the first wave.
Wow. Four months after the start of the crisis. LFTs were still available well over a year later, free of charge and in massive numbers. We needed to procure them. Maybe this deal was corrupt; perhaps it was one of the things necessary to allow us to live our lives months later, in between the lockdowns?
There’s a myth the tests were free. We paid for them. Just not directly.
Whatever the merits of the deal I’m sure the GLP will get suckers to pony up more cash.
With the first paragraph as all about how focus groups see Britain as in a grim state with non functional government services.
Labour is going to find itself hamstrung by the promises it will feel forced to make not to raise significantly more in tax, if it's not careful.
Following the pandemic there was supposed to be a mood of greater willingness for government intervention for the public good, but if that's true the politicians have yet to catch on.
“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.” https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562
This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.
People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...
This contract took place in July 2020. At that time Britain was opened up, indeed our PM was encouraging us to "eat out to help out". It wasn't in the first wave.
It’s a bit pathetic that we couldn’t develop LFTs ourselves, and had to buy them from China via a U.S. middleman. They’re not that complicated.
The ability to manufacture them quickly in response to a new pandemic virus might also be very useful. Imagine a respiratory virus more deadly, but a bit less infectious than Covid. Rapid availability of LFTs might obviate the need for lockdowns.
It would be useful to maintain some rapid vaccine production domestically too, what with Bird Flu and all.
A "Lean State" with no slack in it is fine when the sun is shining, but becomes cachectic very quickly when storms blow. That is one lesson to learn from the covid pandemic.
Bookmakers have started sharing information about punters so that if you self-exclude from one, this will be passed on to the others. The sinister side is that if any one bookmaker decides your betting is getting out of hand, you will be banned across the industry. You may have noticed messages about changed privacy terms when you bet recently. https://thedatashed.co.uk/case-study/gamstop/
Class-action lawsuit against the bookies, in 3,2,1…
Won’t be long before everyone starts hanging around shops again.
Sounds very much to me that they are operating as a cartel. Any competition lawyers about?
They have operated as a cartel since Adam was a boy.
I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .
It won't move the opinion polls one iota.
It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.
Yet there are plenty on the shelves.
I’ve been shopping this morning and the shelves are full of them. As they were in the same shop eat the start of the week. I was only after talk of shortages in the press those shelves were stripped.
Supply may be tighter than usual but there is still plenty of availability and FBPE clowns posting a few empty shelves at the end of the day won’t change it.
All very well but any deal without DUP approval is pointless as the main point of negotiations is to get them, as largest Unionist party in Northern Ireland, back into the Stormont Executive
If the choice is:
1. A deal, no trade war with the EU and no NI Assembly
Or
2. No deal, a trade war with the EU and no NI Assembly
There really is only one choice in the national interest.
“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.” https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562
This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.
People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...
Is there any Conservative government corruption you wouldn't wave through as acceptable "in a crisis"?As others have pointed out the immediate crisis had passed.
What was stopping NHS procurement managers buying directly off AliBaba rather than paying a friend or relative of a Government Minister to buy from AliBaba and then passing the consignment on at 1000% markup?
Pathetic attempt from him to promote Tory crimes as being necessary.
All very well but any deal without DUP approval is pointless as the main point of negotiations is to get them, as largest Unionist party in Northern Ireland, back into the Stormont Executive
If the choice is:
1. A deal, no trade war with the EU and no NI Assembly
Or
2. No deal, a trade war with the EU and no NI Assembly
There really is only one choice in the national interest.
We already have a deal and no trade war with the EU, the one Boris negotiated in 2019 and Parliament passed in January 2020.
All Sunak is trying to negotiate is a deal to get no border in the Irish Sea but anything that sees the ECJ have jurisdiction over GB will be voted down by the ERG and anything which cements ECJ jurisdiction over Northern Ireland will be vetoed by the DUP
My teenage kids do this. It's one of those bewildering trends.
We do this too, mainly because my better half's hearing is not as sharp as it was. You kind of get used to it after a while but it is annoying when it keeps covering up the score.
“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.” https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562
This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.
People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...
This contract took place in July 2020. At that time Britain was opened up, indeed our PM was encouraging us to "eat out to help out". It wasn't in the first wave.
Wow. Four months after the start of the crisis. LFTs were still available well over a year later, free of charge and in massive numbers. We needed to procure them. Maybe this deal was corrupt; perhaps it was one of the things necessary to allow us to live our lives months later, in between the lockdowns?
I am not convinced that the LFT programme of testing was an effective means of disease control, and would like this to be an issue looked at in the covid enquiry.
LFTs have low sensitivity to disease, with a high false negative rate even before poor technique in the general public. Hence they are poorly suited to testing asymptomatic people as a form of screening in a general population such as schools or health care staff.
That poor sensitivity is less of an issue as a rapid diagnostic test in symptomatic patients or their immediate contacts.
Buying a sound bar made all the difference for me re mumbling in films.
When I worked in Cyprus the locals used to watch stuff with subtitles (Greek to English, English to Greek), but just for the laughs. They were fluent, but the translations weren't and caused endless amusement.
I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .
It won't move the opinion polls one iota.
It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.
Yet there are plenty on the shelves.
I’ve been shopping this morning and the shelves are full of them. As they were in the same shop eat the start of the week. I was only after talk of shortages in the press those shelves were stripped.
Supply may be tighter than usual but there is still plenty of availability and FBPE clowns posting a few empty shelves at the end of the day won’t change it.
So the government is lying when it says shortages are due to bad weather in Spain (and not Brexit) because there are no shortages.
If the reporting earlier this week was accurate, Rishi’s deal frees up Britain to apply its own VAT, subsidy and other rules, it’s a major triumph for the Prime Minister.
We have to hope he is successful.
It is time for Sunak to do the deal and take on the ERG and DUP no matter the consequences
The majority of the people of Northern Ireland want this deal as does the UK and EU
All you're showing off here is your complete lack of understanding of the Good Friday Agreement. Matters proceed in Northern Ireland on the basis of the assent of all the communities, and the Unionist community is represented by the DUP. So they can't really be 'taken on' by Sunak like some Kinnock reboot; that's not how it works. All that can happen, as someone else suggested, is that the Unionist community chooses someone else to represent them, someone more amenable to the UK Government giving concessions to the EU - that's highly unlikely to say the least.
It's not about concessions to the EU. Effectively it's about a compromise with Sinn Fein - as the largest party for the Nationalist community.
Remember that we've already breached the Good Friday Agreement, because Northern Ireland was taken out of the EU without its consent. That's why the NI protocol was negotiated to keep NI in the single market.
Clearly, as a compromise, that deal does not satisfy the DUP, but simply pulling NI out of the single market as the DUP want is not going to be a compromise that will satisfy Sinn Fein.
As I've argued before, democracy is ultimately a way of resolving disputes peacefully, and involves a necessary degree of compromise, and an acceptance that people who disagree with you have to get their way to an extent for the system to function.
So who is going to find a compromise acceptable to both the DUP and Sinn Fein?
Tony Blair
He's not even 70, plenty of time for a return to the frontline.
I believe he will make a return under Keir. I have it on good authority he will be a key advisor, if not headed for the Lords.
Tony Blair would make a superb Foreign Secretary. Single-handedly this would make a big difference to the UK’s currently dismal reputation.
David Lammy might feel aggrieved, but not if he was given something like Home Secretary where I actually think he could be good.
The DUP wouldn’t touch a thing offered by Blair.
For years, the NI agreement was treated by the governments as “Give SF what they want. Convince the Unionist politicians that they’ll get something for going along with it, then give them nothing. After all they don’t have any Men of Violence (TM) in their tent.”
Now the DUP have figured out the game. Do you think the threats to the EU customs officials were accidents?
So people should stop whining. You trained the leopards to eat faces. Now you’ve got face eating leopards.
Only 21% of the NI voters supported the DUP at the Assembly Election last year.
That’s the point. The Good Friday Agreement gave explicit veto power to the largest party on each side.
Which was then the SDLP and UUP.
The governments (Irish and British - and American) proceeded to make it all about the requirements of the Republicans (not the Nationalists).
So the voters switched to the winners - SF - and the opposition to the winners - the DUP.
Be more violent. Be more extreme. It was preached by the state….
I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .
It won't move the opinion polls one iota.
It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.
Yet there are plenty on the shelves.
I’ve been shopping this morning and the shelves are full of them. As they were in the same shop eat the start of the week. I was only after talk of shortages in the press those shelves were stripped.
Supply may be tighter than usual but there is still plenty of availability and FBPE clowns posting a few empty shelves at the end of the day won’t change it.
I know that isn't correct, because my wife came back from Sainsbury's just before all this blew up complaining of there being no salad and we had no idea why. We just assumed a Sainsbury's cockup. It was then all over the news a couple of days later. So it certainly wasn't panic buying at that point in time.
All very well but any deal without DUP approval is pointless as the main point of negotiations is to get them, as largest Unionist party in Northern Ireland, back into the Stormont Executive
That's one of the problems, though. What the DUP say they want is already a fair way from the landing strip. There isn't a place where their red lines and the red lines of others intersect. And what they really need to go back to the executive (to not be subservient to SF) simply ain't happening.
The interesting question is what the Johnsonites do. They can't stop any deal happening, but do they have the heft to cause merry hell for Sunak? It's not obvious that they do, not in the way they did for May in 2018. But if BoJo blinks again, like he did for the post-Truss leadership election, then he starts to look like a bottler.
All very well but any deal without DUP approval is pointless as the main point of negotiations is to get them, as largest Unionist party in Northern Ireland, back into the Stormont Executive
I do not agree as that mission is impossible
The importance of a deal on NI is that it signals a new closer relationship with the EU which is long overdue
If the DUP refuse to enter Stormont then the NI secretary must call new elections in NI
Following your logic the will of the majority will be held hostage by a minority indefinitely
My teenage kids do this. It's one of those bewildering trends.
Bonkers. I didn’t know it was a thing.
It makes sense on no level whatsoever, since they will typically be looking at their phone at the same time and thus better placed to hear than read what is being said. File under Kids, eh?
“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.” https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562
This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.
People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...
Yes, in a crisis (or indeed not in a crisis) I'd also have referred any enquiry into the right place at once. I do that sort of referral even now. The two problems are (a) why the route wasn't easily-accessible knowledge to any interested party (there shouldn't be a VIP lane at all) and (b) the perception that a company referred by a Number 10 adviser would get priority.
During the Kabul evacuation, I'm told that the FO prioritised Afghans referred to them by MPs. I don't blame the MPs - if you're asked to help ensure that a desperate case gets attention, you have to do your best. But it shouldn't get special treatment for them, just proper treatment.
I don't know the full details of the 'VIP lane', But if you're in a hurry, and you're getting hundreds of possible providers suggested, it might be a good idea to quickly whittle them down; give priority to the ones that appear most likely to work. Otherwise you spend weeks or months procuring. I don't like the term 'VIP' for that purpose, and perhaps that's not the way it worked.
If you don't prioritise, you waste time. Sometimes any decision is better than a delayed decision. I'd argue it may have been the same with the Afghans as well.
Yes pick the ones your pals recommend for their new businesses rather than established bona fide suppliers. Makes a lot of sense.
I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .
It won't move the opinion polls one iota.
It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.
Yet there are plenty on the shelves.
I’ve been shopping this morning and the shelves are full of them. As they were in the same shop eat the start of the week. I was only after talk of shortages in the press those shelves were stripped.
Supply may be tighter than usual but there is still plenty of availability and FBPE clowns posting a few empty shelves at the end of the day won’t change it.
So the government is lying when it says shortages are due to bad weather in Spain (and not Brexit) because there are no shortages.
Sainsbury's yesterday had lots of empty boxes on show and many in short supply.
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .
It won't move the opinion polls one iota.
It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.
Yet there are plenty on the shelves.
I’ve been shopping this morning and the shelves are full of them. As they were in the same shop eat the start of the week. I was only after talk of shortages in the press those shelves were stripped.
Supply may be tighter than usual but there is still plenty of availability and FBPE clowns posting a few empty shelves at the end of the day won’t change it.
I know that isn't correct, because my wife came back from Sainsbury's just before all this blew up complaining of there being no salad and we had no idea why. We just assumed a Sainsbury's cockup. It was then all over the news a couple of days later. So it certainly wasn't panic buying at that point in time.
Only remoaners, wokeists and the sneering metropolitan elite eat salad anyway. With no rocket to sell, supermarkets will have more shelf space for Fray Bentos meat pies and 24 packs of Stella. Consider it part of the Brexit dividend.
Excellent and correct. But, short on solutions and while Freedland is sound on how broken everything is, he can't say that there hasn't been an awful lot of public money spent. Nor can he look at social democratic Scotland and say 'This is how it's brilliantly done with even more money'.
The possibility that by about end of 2025 the public will have concluded that there is no such thing as an electable party is real.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .
It won't move the opinion polls one iota.
It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.
Yet there are plenty on the shelves.
I’ve been shopping this morning and the shelves are full of them. As they were in the same shop eat the start of the week. I was only after talk of shortages in the press those shelves were stripped.
Supply may be tighter than usual but there is still plenty of availability and FBPE clowns posting a few empty shelves at the end of the day won’t change it.
So the government is lying when it says shortages are due to bad weather in Spain (and not Brexit) because there are no shortages.
Very little salad in our local co-op this morning apparently.
I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .
It won't move the opinion polls one iota.
It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.
Yet there are plenty on the shelves.
I’ve been shopping this morning and the shelves are full of them. As they were in the same shop eat the start of the week. I was only after talk of shortages in the press those shelves were stripped.
Supply may be tighter than usual but there is still plenty of availability and FBPE clowns posting a few empty shelves at the end of the day won’t change it.
So the government is lying when it says shortages are due to bad weather in Spain (and not Brexit) because there are no shortages.
I said supply may be tighter than usual. The govt are saying their view why. However we have been here before. Claims of major wide scale shortages blamed on Brexit that clearly are not the case.
My teenage kids do this. It's one of those bewildering trends.
Not the same, but anecdotally it's how I learned written Danish - watching the Forsyte Saga and countless other BBC shows in Denmark with Danish subtitles. You pick up the language without even trying. It was invaluable at uni, and for the last 15 years, I've been earning £10K/year in my spare time translating from Danish, and that's where it started.
Nowadays, of course, I just have subtitles on because I'm a bit deaf.
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
The ERG and Conservative Democratic Alliance are probably stronger in the Conservatives now than Momentum were in Labour under Corbyn, maybe as strong as Militant were in Labour under Foot and the early Kinnock years
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
They will boycott any new executive where a Republican Party is nominating a first minister. The Protocol is their current excuse for that, but if Sunak can resolve it they will find another pretext.
That is not a reason for holding up sorting the mess out.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.” https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562
This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.
People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...
Yes, in a crisis (or indeed not in a crisis) I'd also have referred any enquiry into the right place at once. I do that sort of referral even now. The two problems are (a) why the route wasn't easily-accessible knowledge to any interested party (there shouldn't be a VIP lane at all) and (b) the perception that a company referred by a Number 10 adviser would get priority.
During the Kabul evacuation, I'm told that the FO prioritised Afghans referred to them by MPs. I don't blame the MPs - if you're asked to help ensure that a desperate case gets attention, you have to do your best. But it shouldn't get special treatment for them, just proper treatment.
I don't know the full details of the 'VIP lane', But if you're in a hurry, and you're getting hundreds of possible providers suggested, it might be a good idea to quickly whittle them down; give priority to the ones that appear most likely to work. Otherwise you spend weeks or months procuring. I don't like the term 'VIP' for that purpose, and perhaps that's not the way it worked.
If you don't prioritise, you waste time. Sometimes any decision is better than a delayed decision. I'd argue it may have been the same with the Afghans as well.
The VIP lane did not prioritise solutions "most likely to work". It prioritised those coming through VIPs (the clue is in the name). Dominic Cummings or Baroness Mome were not carrying out extensive clinical tests before passing suppliers up the line.
Exactly. Similarly, my understanding is that the FO was not prioritising MPs' referrals because they had a high opinion of the initial scrutiny made by MPs, but because the MPs might cause trouble for them.
I do agree with an initial triage in an emergency to quickly put aside the obvious duds and highlight the credible-looking ones. But that's not what seems to have happened here.
I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .
It won't move the opinion polls one iota.
It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.
Yet there are plenty on the shelves.
I’ve been shopping this morning and the shelves are full of them. As they were in the same shop eat the start of the week. I was only after talk of shortages in the press those shelves were stripped.
Supply may be tighter than usual but there is still plenty of availability and FBPE clowns posting a few empty shelves at the end of the day won’t change it.
So the government is lying when it says shortages are due to bad weather in Spain (and not Brexit) because there are no shortages.
I said supply may be tighter than usual. The govt are saying their view why. However we have been here before. Claims of major wide scale shortages blamed on Brexit that clearly are not the case.
We gonna be blaming stuff on Brexit for decades to come, best get used to it.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
Nope
He would call an election
Which he would lose, heavily.
Why would he risk passing a deal which would end his premiership within weeks when he can still be PM potentially for nearly another 2 years?
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
The ERG and Conservative Democratic Alliance are probably stronger in the Conservatives now than Momentum were in Labour under Corbyn, maybe as strong as Militant were in Labour under Foot and the early Kinnock years
The ERG and the CDA are much the same membership but are not near a majority in controlling the conservative mps
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
On your first point, I don't think most Conservative MPs would vote against it, would they? I'd have guessed no more than 100, maybe many less? Otherwise, I agree - the DUP boycotting Stormont is nothing new, though.
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
The ERG and Conservative Democratic Alliance are probably stronger in the Conservatives now than Momentum were in Labour under Corbyn, maybe as strong as Militant were in Labour under Foot and the early Kinnock years
That's probably true... Is it as bad news as it sounds? Because it sounds really bad.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
Nope
He would call an election
Which he would lose, heavily.
Why would he risk passing a deal which would end his premiership within weeks when he can still be PM potentially for nearly another 2 years?
You are saying he would lose a VONC, so losing an election is no worse (from his point of view)
And if he can't pass a deal, he is PM in name only. Why endure that for a second longer than necessary?
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
Nope
He would call an election
Which he would lose, heavily.
Why would he risk passing a deal which would end his premiership within weeks when he can still be PM potentially for nearly another 2 years?
“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.” https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562
This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.
People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...
Didn't the courts basically say the same thing about an earlier challenge? That the urgency meant rapid actions were reasonable even if it meant some bad stuff slipped through.
Doesn't mean every challenge would still fail, the Domster seems to be the type who thinks any process in his way is pointless, but hopefully GoodLaw are picking targets with more care now.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
If there is another election in Northern Ireland will the DUP do better or worse than last time?
Interesting footnote: I have to dictate my contributions and the workings of Mac turned the DUP into GOP! Have to correct by hand, one finger at a time.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
Depends on the terms, remember even in the final round last year of the MPs votes more Conservative MPs voted for Truss and Mordaunt combined than for Sunak. Many Tory MPs most loyal to May and her Chequers deal were deselected in 2019 and replaced by harder Brexiteers.
Even when Tory MPs backed Sunak to become PM when Truss resigned that required the support of ERG hardliners like Braverman and Badenoch and Raab for Sunak
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
I saw evidence of this when there was a reselection meeting for our very reasonable MP and there seemed to be a far left effort to get rid of her. All the centrist mums and dads turned up and she comfortably won reselection. You could sense the Trot rage.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
If there is another election in Northern Ireland will the DUP do better or worse than last time?
Interesting footnote: I have to dictate my contributions and the workings of Mac turned the DUP into GOP! Have to correct by hand, one finger at a time.
I do not know but it will happen if the DUP effectively go on indefinite strike
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
If there is another election in Northern Ireland will the DUP do better or worse than last time?
Interesting footnote: I have to dictate my contributions and the workings of Mac turned the DUP into GOP! Have to correct by hand, one finger at a time.
The DUP are up on the last election with the TUV and UUP slightly down in most polls
A ‘major international conference on wokeism’. Fack off.
Goodwin really is an absolute joke
I've seen him put together a decent turn of phrase, but like quite a few who might start out from a decent point (or an interesting one) he has seemingly gotten high on acclaim from a certain direction and quickly regressed to bog standard talking points and shrill whining (why wont they listen to me!?), possibly with a dollop of conspiracism into the mix.
“The 3-day job is now 12,000% behind schedule, easily the same order of magnitude over budget, has an H&S record from their worst nightmares, and as yet hasn't come close to achieving a single one of its stated objectives.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
Nope
He would call an election
Which he would lose, heavily.
Why would he risk passing a deal which would end his premiership within weeks when he can still be PM potentially for nearly another 2 years?
A snap election would be a suitable finale to the fever dream of the last few years.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
If there is another election in Northern Ireland will the DUP do better or worse than last time?
Interesting footnote: I have to dictate my contributions and the workings of Mac turned the DUP into GOP! Have to correct by hand, one finger at a time.
Your autocorrect was unfair. To whom, I'll leave up to you.
But worse than that, if the DUP ever find out Apple consider them Republicans...
I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .
It won't move the opinion polls one iota.
It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.
Heathener is right on this one. It might not be fair, but such is life. The number of tories or former tories who will give him a boost for a deal is eclipsed by those on the party likely to be furious there is one.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
Depends on the terms, remember even in the final round last year of the MPs votes more Conservative MPs voted for Truss and Mordaunt combined than for Sunak. Many Tory MPs most loyal to May and her Chequers deal were deselected in 2019 and replaced by harder Brexiteers.
Even when Tory MPs backed Sunak to become PM when Truss resigned that required the support of ERG hardliners like Braverman and Badenoch and Raab for Sunak
I am very confident Sunak will receive the backing of all but 100 dissident conservative mps if as many as that
He will not lose his premiership nor is Johnson coming back
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
The ERG and Conservative Democratic Alliance are probably stronger in the Conservatives now than Momentum were in Labour under Corbyn, maybe as strong as Militant were in Labour under Foot and the early Kinnock years
The unions were always the shield against Militant. It was the unions that helped bring Labour back. I do not see the Tory shield - unless Central Office takes all MP selection authority from members and constituency parties.
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
The ERG and Conservative Democratic Alliance are probably stronger in the Conservatives now than Momentum were in Labour under Corbyn, maybe as strong as Militant were in Labour under Foot and the early Kinnock years
The unions were always the shield against Militant. It was the unions that helped bring Labour back. I do not see the Tory shield - unless Central Office takes all MP selection authority from members and constituency parties.
And the hard left learnt from that - hence the interesting people now leading some unions.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
If there is another election in Northern Ireland will the DUP do better or worse than last time?
Interesting footnote: I have to dictate my contributions and the workings of Mac turned the DUP into GOP! Have to correct by hand, one finger at a time.
That's crazy! The GOP are a bunch of right wing zealots, bigots and religious fundamentalists, clinging desperately to power while the world changes around them, while the DUP... Ah OK actually your computer might be into something there.
I think Sunak would deserve plaudits for facing down the ERG and DUP to deliver a deal the majority in Northern Ireland clearly wants. After all, there is no NIP deal the loons will accept because the only acceptable deal for them is one the EU would never do. And Sunak has clearly won meaningful concessions by not being the confrontational idiots Johnson, Frost and Truss were.
If Sunak does go ahead without their support, I think it will help his own ratings immensely. But I don’t see how it would do anything other than tear the Tories even further apart.
That’s why I still have my doubts he’ll do it. But I hope I’m wrong. Some things are too important for partisanship. Ukraine is one, a better relationship with the EU is another.
He needs to EU to announce they are not happy about this but Sunak got one over on them, alas. Then he can sell it.
They can say different back home, not like Brits watch European news.
Subtitles were always on in Taiwan. There was no function to turn them off. Both for literacy (recognition of obscure characters) and for those whose Mandarin wasn't quite up to it (which was substantial amongst the older generation). It really helped. Particularly on Mainland channels, where the Beijing accent was difficult to say the least.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
Depends on the terms, remember even in the final round last year of the MPs votes more Conservative MPs voted for Truss and Mordaunt combined than for Sunak. Many Tory MPs most loyal to May and her Chequers deal were deselected in 2019 and replaced by harder Brexiteers.
Even when Tory MPs backed Sunak to become PM when Truss resigned that required the support of ERG hardliners like Braverman and Badenoch and Raab for Sunak
I am very confident Sunak will receive the backing of all but 100 dissident conservative mps if as many as that
He will not lose his premiership nor is Johnson coming back
Those 100 rebels will greatly diminish his powerbase in the PCP, and probably result in Ministerial resignations, though too many to withdraw the whip from. It will give a powerbase for future rebels to build upon.
It may be a very good thing for NI (hard to be sure until published as at present we just have spun briefings) but for Sunaks own position it may be Zugswang.
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
The ERG and Conservative Democratic Alliance are probably stronger in the Conservatives now than Momentum were in Labour under Corbyn, maybe as strong as Militant were in Labour under Foot and the early Kinnock years
The unions were always the shield against Militant. It was the unions that helped bring Labour back. I do not see the Tory shield - unless Central Office takes all MP selection authority from members and constituency parties.
About 30% would vote for an ERG agenda though only about 25% for a far left Militant agenda.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
Depends on the terms, remember even in the final round last year of the MPs votes more Conservative MPs voted for Truss and Mordaunt combined than for Sunak. Many Tory MPs most loyal to May and her Chequers deal were deselected in 2019 and replaced by harder Brexiteers.
Even when Tory MPs backed Sunak to become PM when Truss resigned that required the support of ERG hardliners like Braverman and Badenoch and Raab for Sunak
I am very confident Sunak will receive the backing of all but 100 dissident conservative mps if as many as that
He will not lose his premiership nor is Johnson coming back
Sunak has the option of threatening an immediate GE. he doesn't need to go to parliament anymore.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
If there is another election in Northern Ireland will the DUP do better or worse than last time?
Interesting footnote: I have to dictate my contributions and the workings of Mac turned the DUP into GOP! Have to correct by hand, one finger at a time.
Your autocorrect was unfair. To whom, I'll leave up to you.
But worse than that, if the DUP ever find out Apple consider them Republicans...
Apple Europe of course is run from the Irish Republic. But you're right; assuming the DUP operate computers that could cause a crash in sales!
Interesting statement from #Ukraine's head of military intelligence, who said he believes that if Russia had taken the Hostomel airport last year, Kyiv would likely have fallen….
For those still thinking the "three days" to take Kyiv was not real:
The New York Times released a piece that includes leaked documents showing Russia even planned for units to get to Kyiv in 13 hours...
The documents showed the timing of the column's departure and arrival. It also matches with how fast Russia tried to take Hostomel, despite having effectively failed to truly take control of the skies.
Just as well they had a warning from the US, a month earlier, of the likely plan.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-oral-history-00083757 BILL BURNS: I saw Zelenskyy in the middle of January to lay out the most recent intelligence we had about Russian planning for the invasion, which by that point had sharpened its focus to come straight across the Belarus frontier — just a relatively short drive from Kyiv — to take Kyiv, decapitate the regime and establish a pro-Russian government there. With some fair amount of detail, including, for example, the Russian intent to seize an airport northwest of Kyiv called Hostomel, and use that as a platform to bring in airborne forces as well to accelerate the seizure of Kyiv...
If you want a sad laugh there are several a accounts retweeting the ballsy comments from 'antiwar' types a year ago saying it was all just media hype, even questioning if armed incursion amounted to invasion etc. (Not merely saying it won't happen, but ridiculing those sounding the warning)
Greenwald, Snowden, Galloway, those types, instantly shifting from there will be no invasion dont be stupid, to it's happening but it's the wests fault and it will end soon, to it's all part if the plan to take this long.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
Nope
He would call an election
Which he would lose, heavily.
Why would he risk passing a deal which would end his premiership within weeks when he can still be PM potentially for nearly another 2 years?
either way he's screwed and so is the tory party. with a VONC the new leader gets forced into an election anyway
“The 3-day job is now 12,000% behind schedule, easily the same order of magnitude over budget, has an H&S record from their worst nightmares, and as yet hasn't come close to achieving a single one of its stated objectives.
I think Sunak would deserve plaudits for facing down the ERG and DUP to deliver a deal the majority in Northern Ireland clearly wants. After all, there is no NIP deal the loons will accept because the only acceptable deal for them is one the EU would never do. And Sunak has clearly won meaningful concessions by not being the confrontational idiots Johnson, Frost and Truss were.
If Sunak does go ahead without their support, I think it will help his own ratings immensely. But I don’t see how it would do anything other than tear the Tories even further apart.
That’s why I still have my doubts he’ll do it. But I hope I’m wrong. Some things are too important for partisanship. Ukraine is one, a better relationship with the EU is another.
He needs to EU to announce they are not happy about this but Sunak got one over on them, alas. Then he can sell it.
They can say different back home, not like Brits watch European news.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Most conservative mps will not vote against it nor would he lose a vonc
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
Depends on the terms, remember even in the final round last year of the MPs votes more Conservative MPs voted for Truss and Mordaunt combined than for Sunak. Many Tory MPs most loyal to May and her Chequers deal were deselected in 2019 and replaced by harder Brexiteers.
Even when Tory MPs backed Sunak to become PM when Truss resigned that required the support of ERG hardliners like Braverman and Badenoch and Raab for Sunak
I am very confident Sunak will receive the backing of all but 100 dissident conservative mps if as many as that
He will not lose his premiership nor is Johnson coming back
Those 100 rebels will greatly diminish his powerbase in the PCP, and probably result in Ministerial resignations, though too many to withdraw the whip from. It will give a powerbase for future rebels to build upon.
It may be a very good thing for NI (hard to be sure until published as at present we just have spun briefings) but for Sunaks own position it may be Zugswang.
Yes, and even 50 is a huge number of rebels. Itd be their pretext to scupper anything else he wants as they wait for their chance to put Boris back.
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
To be fair, it was also because Corbyn - to the frustration of many of his allies - didn't try to impose left-wing candidates by central manipulation. The hard left view was that he'd drunk the party democracy Kool-Aid and genuinely thought that members should be allowed to do their own thing, which they felt was pathetically naive on his part. Corbyn was always more popular among the wider left-wing membership than among the serious insurgents.
By contrast, there seems to be a current effort to exclude anyone remotely unsatisfactory from the long-list (which is effectively controlled by the party machine) before it gets anywhere near the membership. A bit like FPTP vs PR, the issue is whether you're still in favour of fairness when you're running things.
The rumour is the NI deal will be published Monday and voted on same day. Isn't that the worst possible way to pass a deal? No consideration, scrutiny. Most won't have read it even?
My teenage kids do this. It's one of those bewildering trends.
Not the same, but anecdotally it's how I learned written Danish - watching the Forsyte Saga and countless other BBC shows in Denmark with Danish subtitles. You pick up the language without even trying. It was invaluable at uni, and for the last 15 years, I've been earning £10K/year in my spare time translating from Danish, and that's where it started.
Nowadays, of course, I just have subtitles on because I'm a bit deaf.
I watched a lot of Scandi-Noir over lockdown and one night found myself about 30 minutes into an episode of something before I realised I hadn't got the subtitles on but had been following along anyway.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
Nope
He would call an election
Which he would lose, heavily.
Why would he risk passing a deal which would end his premiership within weeks when he can still be PM potentially for nearly another 2 years?
This deal will not end his premiership
No, but it could turn it into the last year of May's premiership.
The best outcome for Sunak, the Tories and the country would be for him to push through the NI/EU deal and for Suella Braverman to resign in solidarity with her DUP mates. He could then appoint a HS with a bit of humanity and return to civilised discourse on asylum seekers, refugees etc.
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
They will boycott any new executive where a Republican Party is nominating a first minister. The Protocol is their current excuse for that, but if Sunak can resolve it they will find another pretext.
That is not a reason for holding up sorting the mess out.
Yes, ultimately it won't help Sunak and might even hurt him, but he's already in a punishingly weak position, he might as well actually achieve something.
The rumour is the NI deal will be published Monday and voted on same day. Isn't that the worst possible way to pass a deal? No consideration, scrutiny. Most won't have read it even?
Maybe the assumption is that it’s the ONLY way to pass it without relying on Labour votes?
The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.
It depends...
If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.
If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity
The far left never got to seal a takeover of the Labour party because there weren't enough of them - either at the constituency level or within the unions. That's why they never managed any MP deselections and failed to get their candidates elected post-Corbyn. The ERG right seems to be much bigger and better organised within the Conservative membership. That indicates any path back to sanity is going to take much longer to travel. We need it to happen, though. If Labour is returned at the next election, the circumstances it inherits will be difficult, to say the least, and even if it does do OK it will not be in power forever. When it is booted out of office it's important it is not replaced by a party of Gullis, Anderson and Rees Mogg clones.
The ERG and Conservative Democratic Alliance are probably stronger in the Conservatives now than Momentum were in Labour under Corbyn, maybe as strong as Militant were in Labour under Foot and the early Kinnock years
The unions were always the shield against Militant. It was the unions that helped bring Labour back. I do not see the Tory shield - unless Central Office takes all MP selection authority from members and constituency parties.
About 30% would vote for an ERG agenda though only about 25% for a far left Militant agenda.
I think the trouble in the Conservative Party is of an order of magnitude more embedded than the far left in Labour. Even if not all members are pure play ERGers the vast majority are wedded to Brexit, think Boris was hard done by, and think the biggest problems facing the country are small boat crossings and wokeism. I think that’s probably true of the 25-30% core vote too.
Even at the nadir of Corbyn’s takeover of Labour you would not find a majority of members with the equivalent views: which would be renationalisation of everything, confiscatory tax rates and thinking that the biggest problems facing the country are gender critical TERFs and private schools. Let alone Labour voters. So there was always the quiet majority ready to find the way back.
I can’t see a centrist Tory getting to the leadership any time soon.
A ‘major international conference on wokeism’. Fack off.
The question seems to answer itself
OTOH I believe Mr G is still Prof G. Is the University of Kent not a reputable enough university for him to organise a conference at his own university?
To be fair to the good professor, I think wokeism would be a good topic for a conference. I am talking about the phenomenon, how people develop conspiracy theories, use labels such as "woke" to denigrate those with different ideas from themselves to shut down debate, and how very wealthy individuals and shadowy organisations work with politicians and use social media to promote their agenda.
I don't think that's what this conference is about however.
Indeed. I'm reminded of reading a similarly broad-minded and, in the event, highly illuminating conference proceedings or at any rate a multiauthor volume on the Loch Ness Monster. As well as studies on Celtic tradition (a sea monster at the mouth of the River Ness is not a loch monster ...), and the weird physiography and limnology of the Loch, I particularly remember one study demonstrating that belief in the Monster correlated very strongly with absolute batshit crazy stuff like belief in flying sauc ... er, well, that was the 1980s.
I hate to think what the result would be today.
(In that case, though, the place to look for a conspiracy might be the local tourist industry.)
If he pushed it through relying on Labour votes lent by Starmer with most Conservative MPs voting against though, he would lose a VONC within weeks and Boris would be brought back as PM again.
Nope
He would call an election
Which he would lose, heavily.
Why would he risk passing a deal which would end his premiership within weeks when he can still be PM potentially for nearly another 2 years?
This deal will not end his premiership
No, but it could turn it into the last year of May's premiership.
God forbid. That ended with Johnson taking over and winning an election.
The rumour is the NI deal will be published Monday and voted on same day. Isn't that the worst possible way to pass a deal? No consideration, scrutiny. Most won't have read it even?
Not uncommon for parliamentary matters of course. It's where the facade MPs hold the power rather than the leaders on each side slips
Comments
He won’t do it, of course.
Speaking of great services, if Cummings escapes criminal sanction for his lunatic actions while under quarantine and his patent lies to cover them up, while getting locked up for doing his best procure LFTs, I think I will actually wet myself laughing.
As I said yesterday about Putin, karma’s only a bitch if you are.
Whatever the merits of the deal I’m sure the GLP will get suckers to pony up more cash.
Following the pandemic there was supposed to be a mood of greater willingness for government intervention for the public good, but if that's true the politicians have yet to catch on.
A "Lean State" with no slack in it is fine when the sun is shining, but becomes cachectic very quickly when storms blow. That is one lesson to learn from the covid pandemic.
Lionel 'I'm all woman so can rock a bloke's name' Shriver.
I’ve been shopping this morning and the shelves are full of them. As they were in the same shop eat the start of the week. I was only after talk of shortages in the press those shelves were stripped.
Supply may be tighter than usual but there is still plenty of availability and FBPE clowns posting a few empty shelves at the end of the day won’t change it.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1629141495696457729?s=20
1. A deal, no trade war with the EU and no NI Assembly
Or
2. No deal, a trade war with the EU and no NI Assembly
There really is only one choice in the national interest.
The carrot and stick approach
All Sunak is trying to negotiate is a deal to get no border in the Irish Sea but anything that sees the ECJ have jurisdiction over GB will be voted down by the ERG and anything which cements ECJ jurisdiction over Northern Ireland will be vetoed by the DUP
LFTs have low sensitivity to disease, with a high false negative rate even before poor technique in the general public. Hence they are poorly suited to testing asymptomatic people as a form of screening in a general population such as schools or health care staff.
That poor sensitivity is less of an issue as a rapid diagnostic test in symptomatic patients or their immediate contacts.
When I worked in Cyprus the locals used to watch stuff with subtitles (Greek to English, English to Greek), but just for the laughs. They were fluent, but the translations weren't and caused endless amusement.
Which was then the SDLP and UUP.
The governments (Irish and British - and American) proceeded to make it all about the requirements of the Republicans (not the Nationalists).
So the voters switched to the winners - SF - and the opposition to the winners - the DUP.
Be more violent. Be more extreme. It was preached by the state….
After decades of that lesson, you are surprised?
happening.
The interesting question is what the Johnsonites do. They can't stop any deal happening, but do they have the heft to cause merry hell for Sunak? It's not obvious that they do, not in the way they did for May in 2018. But if BoJo blinks again, like he did for the post-Truss leadership election, then he starts to look like a bottler.
The importance of a deal on NI is that it signals a new closer relationship with the EU which is long overdue
If the DUP refuse to enter Stormont then the NI secretary must call new elections in NI
Following your logic the will of the majority will be held hostage by a minority indefinitely
(Though, given Scandi history on the far right, I'd be sure to check the list of other attendees...)
As long as he's not seduced into appointing Lee Anderson as HS instead.
The possibility that by about end of 2025 the public will have concluded that there is no such thing as an electable party is real.
The DUP would also still boycott the Stormont Executive if they oppose the terms of any new deal
Nowadays, of course, I just have subtitles on because I'm a bit deaf.
That is not a reason for holding up sorting the mess out.
This is you displaying your love of all things Johnson and if the DUP refuse to attend Stormont then new elections in NI will be called
I do agree with an initial triage in an emergency to quickly put aside the obvious duds and highlight the credible-looking ones. But that's not what seems to have happened here.
He would call an election
Why would he risk passing a deal which would end his premiership within weeks when he can still be PM potentially for nearly another 2 years?
There is enough blame there to last lifetimes
Otherwise, I agree - the DUP boycotting Stormont is nothing new, though.
So he failed to get the Big Cylinder to Pop Out Of It’s Hole and soar to the stars on a Mighty Column of fire.
And if he can't pass a deal, he is PM in name only. Why endure that for a second longer than necessary?
Doesn't mean every challenge would still fail, the Domster seems to be the type who thinks any process in his way is pointless, but hopefully GoodLaw are picking targets with more care now.
Interesting footnote: I have to dictate my contributions and the workings of Mac turned the DUP into GOP! Have to correct by hand, one finger at a time.
Even when Tory MPs backed Sunak to become PM when Truss resigned that required the support of ERG hardliners like Braverman and Badenoch and Raab for Sunak
Sorry to hear of your difficulties
Best wishes
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
“The 3-day job is now 12,000% behind schedule, easily the same order of magnitude over budget, has an H&S record from their worst nightmares, and as yet hasn't come close to achieving a single one of its stated objectives.
Which U.K. government dept. Should he apply to?”
Music by Wagner, words by Brian Rix.
Not expecting it, but it would be fun to watch.
But worse than that, if the DUP ever find out Apple consider them Republicans...
He will not lose his premiership nor is Johnson coming back
They can say different back home, not like Brits watch European news.
It really helped. Particularly on Mainland channels, where the Beijing accent was difficult to say the least.
It may be a very good thing for NI (hard to be sure until published as at present we just have spun briefings) but for Sunaks own position it may be Zugswang.
Greenwald, Snowden, Galloway, those types, instantly shifting from there will be no invasion dont be stupid, to it's happening but it's the wests fault and it will end soon, to it's all part if the plan to take this long.
https://youtu.be/Rv85s_v3LKo
By contrast, there seems to be a current effort to exclude anyone remotely unsatisfactory from the long-list (which is effectively controlled by the party machine) before it gets anywhere near the membership. A bit like FPTP vs PR, the issue is whether you're still in favour of fairness when you're running things.
Isn't that the worst possible way to pass a deal?
No consideration, scrutiny. Most won't have read it even?
Even at the nadir of Corbyn’s takeover of Labour you would not find a majority of members with the equivalent views: which would be renationalisation of everything, confiscatory tax rates and thinking that the biggest problems facing the country are gender critical TERFs and private schools. Let alone Labour voters. So there was always the quiet majority ready to find the way back.
I can’t see a centrist Tory getting to the leadership any time soon.
I hate to think what the result would be today.
(In that case, though, the place to look for a conspiracy might be the local tourist industry.)
That ended with Johnson taking over and winning an election.