Could a Brexit deal be the making of Sunak? – politicalbetting.com

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Could a Brexit deal be the making of Sunak? – politicalbetting.com

So far we have no idea what is in the proposed Brexit deal but it clearly if successful could have a huge political impact.

Read the full story here

dobbin

PB the global politics blog.? First from the Tasman Sea

Pro_Rata

dobbin said:

PB the global politics blog.? First from the Tasman Sea

Second from the land of the Elmet.

CarlottaVance

Pro_Rata said:

dobbin said:

PB the global politics blog.? First from the Tasman Sea

Second from the land of the Elmet.

Third from the English Channel….

ydoethur

One thing people have forgotten in the shifting of the EU’s stance is that they have badly mishandled the protocol, notably when they tried to illegally suspend it out of spite over their bungled vaccine procurement.

Previously they had been relentless in their pushing of the narrative that they were the good guys and it was the horrible British who were cocking everything up and making life impossible because they were so stupid. And it was clear they really believed that.

Afterwards they suddenly went quiet on that narrative. It was as though they had really seen themselves for the first time.

And it was after that serious work began on resolving the issues.

Hopefully that can be applied in other areas as well where the EU genuinely didn’t realise the mistakes they were making unnecessarily. That’s admittedly the triumph of hope over experience, but von der Leyen leaves next year and her successor will have the opportunity be more mindful of the mistakes she and Juncker made.

CarlottaVance

On topic, one of the criticisms of Sunak is his lack of political experience - on the SNP leadership contest this post compares the hard yards Salmond and Sturgeon put in with the “handed on a plate” experience of the current candidates:

https://www.notesonnationalism.com/p/winter-is-coming

Pro_Rata

CarlottaVance said:

Pro_Rata said:

dobbin said:

PB the global politics blog.? First from the Tasman Sea

Second from the land of the Elmet.

Third from the English Channel….

I feel I've missed a bit of thread? Is the sea straights theme ongoing or did Dobbin start it?

Icarus

Not much point the EU shifting its position -the problem is the DUP. They just cant stomach a Sinn Fein First Minister at Stormont.

RochdalePioneers

Perhaps the great fruit and veg shortage - denied in public despite the facts - may be making some of the Brexit nutters realise that some kind of deal is needed. We can't eat sovereignty.

As far as a parliamentary vote is concerned, Sunak will win regardless of how large an ERG rebellion he suffers as Labour and the other opposition parties will support it. If the rebels get gobby, face them down and make it clear that the government will consider a loss of majority on a confidence motion as necessitating a General Election, shutting the door on the idea of putting Shagger back into Downing Street.

The challenge will be in Norniron. Voters, businesses, farmers all support the protocol. Bowler-hatted twats may not and whilst the GFA requires their participation it cannot be left to ransom where the assembly can never sit again because a minority are arguing against voters wishes. So face them down as well. The next election will see their obstructionist vote splinter taking their blockage away. Sod them.

CarlottaVance

ydoethur said:

One thing people have forgotten in the shifting of the EU’s stance is that they have badly mishandled the protocol, notably when they tried to illegally suspend it out of spite over their bungled vaccine procurement.

Previously they had been relentless in their pushing of the narrative that they were the good guys and it was the horrible British who were cocking everything up and making life impossible because they were so stupid. And it was clear they really believed that.

Afterwards they suddenly went quiet on that narrative. It was as though they had really seen themselves for the first time.

And it was after that serious work began on resolving the issues.

Hopefully that can be applied in other areas as well where the EU genuinely didn’t realise the mistakes they were making unnecessarily. That’s admittedly the triumph of hope over experience, but von der Leyen leaves next year and her successor will have the opportunity be more mindful of the mistakes she and Juncker made.

A classic example was Erasmus “the U.K. will pay what they’re told” - even though the EU sent more students to the U.K. than vice versa. No we wouldn’t.

DavidL

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

RochdalePioneers

Icarus said:

Not much point the EU shifting its position -the problem is the DUP. They just cant stomach a Sinn Fein First Minister at Stormont.

Forget the DUP. They look like they will shed further votes in all directions - to the Alliance, to the non-mentalist UUP, and to the totally mental TUV. I believe that an election has been put off for a further year of DUP obstructionist non-government. Sunak should call their bluff and have elections in May.

Jonathan

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

We’re about to witness a whirlwind of spin.

Morris_Dancer

FPT x2:

Meanwhile, in Turkey Erdogan is moving decisively and swiftly... to silence reporters who wrote about the earthquake and slow aid response.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64759377

----

Good morning, everyone.

F1: not been paying close attention but McLaren mood music is already sounding gloomy. After an early red flag, Aston Martin might be alright after all. And some reckon Alfa Romeo has improved (likewise Williams). Alpine seeming iffier.

kle4

No it won't be the making of him. His vulnerability comes from the proven continued desire for Boris in the ranks combined with the very likely prospect of electoral defeat.

Getting a deal, even if it is a good one, won't change either of those things. It might even aggravate them, as the core Borisites will be angry at any deal, probably decreasing overall party support.

Peter_the_Punter

Thirteenth from my bed in Winchcombe.

Peter_the_Punter

CarlottaVance said:

Pro_Rata said:

dobbin said:

PB the global politics blog.? First from the Tasman Sea

Second from the land of the Elmet.

Third from the English Channel….

What on earth are you doing there, Carlotta? Not trying to enter the country illegally, I hope...

DavidL

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

We’re about to witness a whirlwind of spin.

Possibly but New Labour taught us that spin was something that should blow every day, work on every headline, shape every issue. That is how a government becomes dominant and sets the weather. The odd short lived tornado doesn't really cut it.

It is also clear that the current negotiations are really focused on NI. Whilst undoubtedly important we need to improve our general trading relationships with the EU and reduce the bureaucracy it seems to have caused. I very much hope that more general lessons are being learned in these negotiations. The determinedly constructive tone will certainly help.

The_Woodpecker

RochdalePioneers said:

Icarus said:

Not much point the EU shifting its position -the problem is the DUP. They just cant stomach a Sinn Fein First Minister at Stormont.

Forget the DUP. They look like they will shed further votes in all directions - to the Alliance, to the non-mentalist UUP, and to the totally mental TUV. I believe that an election has been put off for a further year of DUP obstructionist non-government. Sunak should call their bluff and have elections in May.

I hope you are correct. But what if the DUP's intransigence proves popular within unionism?

Peter_the_Punter

ydoethur said:

One thing people have forgotten in the shifting of the EU’s stance is that they have badly mishandled the protocol, notably when they tried to illegally suspend it out of spite over their bungled vaccine procurement.

Previously they had been relentless in their pushing of the narrative that they were the good guys and it was the horrible British who were cocking everything up and making life impossible because they were so stupid. And it was clear they really believed that.

Afterwards they suddenly went quiet on that narrative. It was as though they had really seen themselves for the first time.

And it was after that serious work began on resolving the issues.

Hopefully that can be applied in other areas as well where the EU genuinely didn’t realise the mistakes they were making unnecessarily. That’s admittedly the triumph of hope over experience, but von der Leyen leaves next year and her successor will have the opportunity be more mindful of the mistakes she and Juncker made.

When the show trials begin, Juncker should be the first in the dock.

kle4

ydoethur said:

One thing people have forgotten in the shifting of the EU’s stance is that they have badly mishandled the protocol, notably when they tried to illegally suspend it out of spite over their bungled vaccine procurement.

Previously they had been relentless in their pushing of the narrative that they were the good guys and it was the horrible British who were cocking everything up and making life impossible because they were so stupid. And it was clear they really believed that.

Afterwards they suddenly went quiet on that narrative. It was as though they had really seen themselves for the first time.

And it was after that serious work began on resolving the issues.

Hopefully that can be applied in other areas as well where the EU genuinely didn’t realise the mistakes they were making unnecessarily. That’s admittedly the triumph of hope over experience, but von der Leyen leaves next year and her successor will have the opportunity be more mindful of the mistakes she and Juncker made.

I wouldn't want to over egg the point, but the aborted suspension over the vaccine situation was a helpful reminder that incompetence and spite are not uniquely British vices. The attempts to pretend it had been some kind of oversight were insultingly lame. It managed to briefly unite sworn opponents it was so dumb.

RochdalePioneers

The_Woodpecker said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Icarus said:

Not much point the EU shifting its position -the problem is the DUP. They just cant stomach a Sinn Fein First Minister at Stormont.

Forget the DUP. They look like they will shed further votes in all directions - to the Alliance, to the non-mentalist UUP, and to the totally mental TUV. I believe that an election has been put off for a further year of DUP obstructionist non-government. Sunak should call their bluff and have elections in May.

I hope you are correct. But what if the DUP's intransigence proves popular within unionism?

Have we seen any polling showing the split of remain vs leave in the Unionist community? We know the majority didn't vote leave. And a lot of groups who would be traditional conservative Unionist (farmers and business leaders as the obvious examples) support the thing the DUP oppose.

BlancheLivermore

I see NZ are getting bazboomled

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

On topic, one of the criticisms of Sunak is his lack of political experience - on the SNP leadership contest this post compares the hard yards Salmond and Sturgeon put in with the “handed on a plate” experience of the current candidates:

https://www.notesonnationalism.com/p/winter-is-coming

It is harder to face character building failures during a period of high success of course.

Peter_the_Punter

The_Woodpecker said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Icarus said:

Not much point the EU shifting its position -the problem is the DUP. They just cant stomach a Sinn Fein First Minister at Stormont.

Forget the DUP. They look like they will shed further votes in all directions - to the Alliance, to the non-mentalist UUP, and to the totally mental TUV. I believe that an election has been put off for a further year of DUP obstructionist non-government. Sunak should call their bluff and have elections in May.

I hope you are correct. But what if the DUP's intransigence proves popular within unionism?

If Sunak can get them to say anything other than No he deserves a twenty point hike in his ratings.

kle4

The_Woodpecker said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Icarus said:

Not much point the EU shifting its position -the problem is the DUP. They just cant stomach a Sinn Fein First Minister at Stormont.

Forget the DUP. They look like they will shed further votes in all directions - to the Alliance, to the non-mentalist UUP, and to the totally mental TUV. I believe that an election has been put off for a further year of DUP obstructionist non-government. Sunak should call their bluff and have elections in May.

I hope you are correct. But what if the DUP's intransigence proves popular within unionism?

Intransigence being politically popular? Never. Never. Never. Never.

(Possibly not actually a good example in fairness).

kle4

DavidL said:

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

We’re about to witness a whirlwind of spin.

Possibly but New Labour taught us that spin was something that should blow every day, work on every headline, shape every issue. That is how a government becomes dominant and sets the weather. The odd short lived tornado doesn't really cut it.

It is also clear that the current negotiations are really focused on NI. Whilst undoubtedly important we need to improve our general trading relationships with the EU and reduce the bureaucracy it seems to have caused. I very much hope that more general lessons are being learned in these negotiations. The determinedly constructive tone will certainly help.

To a degree spin is ok. Most policies or occurrences can.be interpreted or judged differently depending on framing, so if course things get talked up in their best light.

It's when things have to be spun so hard eyes will fall out of heads at the dissonance with reality that it is a problem. There are 40 new hospitals etc.

FF43

If he pulls this off, I think so. The stakes are high. If the UK doesn't do this agreement with the EU, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill stays, which breaches the treaty and will likely lead to a trade war with the EU with spillover effects elsewhere.

Also he would be Johnson's hostage.

kle4

FF43 said:

If he pulls this off, I think so. The stakes are high. If the UK doesn't do this agreement with the EU, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill stays, which breaches the treaty and will likely lead to a trade war with the EU with spillover effects elsewhere.

That would be better than surrendering to the remainiac establishment, who are already cock a hoop from their takedown of the genius Truss growth plan.

So sayeth about 40% of the Conservative Party.

Stuartinromford

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

We’re about to witness a whirlwind of spin.

We already are. Consider the way that there are clear hints of what the UK has won, but nothing about what the UK has conceded. It's possible that that's what's happened, but it seems unlikely. Even if it would be emotionally satisfying for some.

Two other tidbits from that Sunakite rag;

...senior Whitehall sources told The Times that the bill had been judged to be legally flawed and that this advice had been provided to the former prime minister...

Johnson was told that even if the bill was passed it could not permanently disapply the protocol in UK law, as he suggested, and was open to challenge in international courts. “He was aware the bill would totally crumble when it hit reality,” they said. A source close to Johnson described the claim as “total nonsense”.

And in reselection news, Suella Braverman's Fareham seat is being cut in two, becoming Fareham & Watelooville and Hamble Valley. It's possible that she isn't front runner in either of them.

Jonathan

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

We’re about to witness a whirlwind of spin.

Possibly but New Labour taught us that spin was something that should blow every day, work on every headline, shape every issue. That is how a government becomes dominant and sets the weather. The odd short lived tornado doesn't really cut it.

It is also clear that the current negotiations are really focused on NI. Whilst undoubtedly important we need to improve our general trading relationships with the EU and reduce the bureaucracy it seems to have caused. I very much hope that more general lessons are being learned in these negotiations. The determinedly constructive tone will certainly help.

To a degree spin is ok. Most policies or occurrences can.be interpreted or judged differently depending on framing, so if course things get talked up in their best light.

It's when things have to be spun so hard eyes will fall out of heads at the dissonance with reality that it is a problem. There are 40 new hospitals etc.

The suspicion has to be when spin is really severe that it isn’t spin at all and the underlying motivation was not the policy but ti raise the profile of the protagonist.

Is Rishi trying to help NI or save himself? Is this a moment all about his reputation and position wrt Boris and ERG or actual progress in NI.

Not mutually exclusive, but sometimes the why matters. This one does seem to be all about Sunak so far. Windsor knot.

squareroot2

BlancheLivermore said:

I see NZ are getting bazboomled

That's one of the certainties in Sport right now. They are being outplayed in every aspect of the game, including reviews!

Big_G_NorthWales

Jonathan said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

We’re about to witness a whirlwind of spin.

Possibly but New Labour taught us that spin was something that should blow every day, work on every headline, shape every issue. That is how a government becomes dominant and sets the weather. The odd short lived tornado doesn't really cut it.

It is also clear that the current negotiations are really focused on NI. Whilst undoubtedly important we need to improve our general trading relationships with the EU and reduce the bureaucracy it seems to have caused. I very much hope that more general lessons are being learned in these negotiations. The determinedly constructive tone will certainly help.

To a degree spin is ok. Most policies or occurrences can.be interpreted or judged differently depending on framing, so if course things get talked up in their best light.

It's when things have to be spun so hard eyes will fall out of heads at the dissonance with reality that it is a problem. There are 40 new hospitals etc.

The suspicion has to be when spin is really severe that it isn’t spin at all and the underlying motivation was not the policy but ti raise the profile of the protagonist.

Is Rishi trying to help NI or save himself? Is this a moment all about his reputation and position wrt Boris and ERG or actual progress in NI.

Not mutually exclusive, but sometimes the why matters. This one does seem to be all about Sunak so far. Windsor knot.

Good morning

Could I suggest that the reason for Sunak wanting to resolve the NIP is because he knows it is the way to open a happier dialogue with the EU to everyone's interests

He has a high profile visit to Macron in early march and he no doubt is looking at supporting Macron's outer EU countries proposals
It is time to draw closer to the EU and Sunak, as well as Hunt, must see the opportunities here

Peter_the_Punter

squareroot2 said:

BlancheLivermore said:

I see NZ are getting bazboomled

That's one of the certainties in Sport right now. They are being outplayed in every aspect of the game, including reviews!

Yup, and it's a big day of sport ahead - 6 Nations, Formula 1, Cricket from NZ, and Orient away to Grimsby. Better get going.

Catch you all later.

FF43

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

We’re about to witness a whirlwind of spin.

We already are. Consider the way that there are clear hints of what the UK has won, but nothing about what the UK has conceded. It's possible that that's what's happened, but it seems unlikely. Even if it would be emotionally satisfying for some.

Two other tidbits from that Sunakite rag;

...senior Whitehall sources told The Times that the bill had been judged to be legally flawed and that this advice had been provided to the former prime minister...

Johnson was told that even if the bill was passed it could not permanently disapply the protocol in UK law, as he suggested, and was open to challenge in international courts. “He was aware the bill would totally crumble when it hit reality,” they said. A source close to Johnson described the claim as “total nonsense”.

And in reselection news, Suella Braverman's Fareham seat is being cut in two, becoming Fareham & Watelooville and Hamble Valley. It's possible that she isn't front runner in either of them.

UK "concessions" here are the UK implementing some of the controls it previously agreed to carry out on behalf of the EU in a very overreaching treaty. The EU "concession" is risk accepting a level of smuggling into Ireland and the Single Market due to other previously agreed controls no longer being applied. The UK hardly controls for smuggling the other way.

Trade experts have signalled this landing zone ever since the NIP issue blew up.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

On topic, one of the criticisms of Sunak is his lack of political experience - on the SNP leadership contest this post compares the hard yards Salmond and Sturgeon put in with the “handed on a plate” experience of the current candidates:

https://www.notesonnationalism.com/p/winter-is-coming

Saw it was by TUBA and that was enough, nothing that absolute balloon writes is of any interest, worse than any broken record and jaundiced view every time.

malcolmg

Peter_the_Punter said:

The_Woodpecker said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Icarus said:

Not much point the EU shifting its position -the problem is the DUP. They just cant stomach a Sinn Fein First Minister at Stormont.

Forget the DUP. They look like they will shed further votes in all directions - to the Alliance, to the non-mentalist UUP, and to the totally mental TUV. I believe that an election has been put off for a further year of DUP obstructionist non-government. Sunak should call their bluff and have elections in May.

I hope you are correct. But what if the DUP's intransigence proves popular within unionism?

If Sunak can get them to say anything other than No he deserves a twenty point hike in his ratings.

Money talks with these clowns Peter, if he offers them hard cash they will fill their boots.

DecrepiterJohnL

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

JosiasJessop

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

OldKingCole

malcolmg said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

The_Woodpecker said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Icarus said:

Not much point the EU shifting its position -the problem is the DUP. They just cant stomach a Sinn Fein First Minister at Stormont.

Forget the DUP. They look like they will shed further votes in all directions - to the Alliance, to the non-mentalist UUP, and to the totally mental TUV. I believe that an election has been put off for a further year of DUP obstructionist non-government. Sunak should call their bluff and have elections in May.

I hope you are correct. But what if the DUP's intransigence proves popular within unionism?

If Sunak can get them to say anything other than No he deserves a twenty point hike in his ratings.

Money talks with these clowns Peter, if he offers them hard cash they will fill their boots.

And still say NO!

And Good Morning one and all!

SouthamObserver

I think Sunak would deserve plaudits for facing down the ERG and DUP to deliver a deal the majority in Northern Ireland clearly wants. After all, there is no NIP deal the loons will accept because the only acceptable deal for them is one the EU would never do. And Sunak has clearly won meaningful concessions by not being the confrontational idiots Johnson, Frost and Truss were.

If Sunak does go ahead without their support, I think it will help his own ratings immensely. But I don’t see how it would do anything other than tear the Tories even further apart.

That’s why I still have my doubts he’ll do it. But I hope I’m wrong. Some things are too important for partisanship. Ukraine is one, a better relationship with the EU is another.

Theuniondivvie

A ‘major international conference on wokeism’.
Fack off.

Nigelb

Peter_the_Punter said:

CarlottaVance said:

Pro_Rata said:

dobbin said:

PB the global politics blog.? First from the Tasman Sea

Second from the land of the Elmet.

Third from the English Channel….

What on earth are you doing there, Carlotta? Not trying to enter the country illegally, I hope...

Rising like Aphrodite from the surf.

Carnyx

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

Nevertheless, what expertise did the various Conservatives and their contacts have to be able to say that X and Y should be prioritised over other suppliers? They seem, for instance, to have been rather unsound on PPE, and I don't mean the Oxford University kind.

Daveyboy1961

FF43 said:

If he pulls this off, I think so. The stakes are high. If the UK doesn't do this agreement with the EU, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill stays, which breaches the treaty and will likely lead to a trade war with the EU with spillover effects elsewhere.

Also he would be Johnson's hostage.

Dishi pulls it off?

Nigelb

Stuartinromford said:

Jonathan said:

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

We’re about to witness a whirlwind of spin.

We already are. Consider the way that there are clear hints of what the UK has won, but nothing about what the UK has conceded. It's possible that that's what's happened, but it seems unlikely. Even if it would be emotionally satisfying for some.

Two other tidbits from that Sunakite rag;

...senior Whitehall sources told The Times that the bill had been judged to be legally flawed and that this advice had been provided to the former prime minister...

Johnson was told that even if the bill was passed it could not permanently disapply the protocol in UK law, as he suggested, and was open to challenge in international courts. “He was aware the bill would totally crumble when it hit reality,” they said. A source close to Johnson described the claim as “total nonsense”.

And in reselection news, Suella Braverman's Fareham seat is being cut in two, becoming Fareham & Watelooville and Hamble Valley. It's possible that she isn't front runner in either of them.

How sad for her.

NickPalmer

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

Yes, in a crisis (or indeed not in a crisis) I'd also have referred any enquiry into the right place at once. I do that sort of referral even now. The two problems are (a) why the route wasn't easily-accessible knowledge to any interested party (there shouldn't be a VIP lane at all) and (b) the perception that a company referred by a Number 10 adviser would get priority.

During the Kabul evacuation, I'm told that the FO prioritised Afghans referred to them by MPs. I don't blame the MPs - if you're asked to help ensure that a desperate case gets attention, you have to do your best. But it shouldn't get special treatment for them, just proper treatment.

Carnyx

Theuniondivvie said:

A ‘major international conference on wokeism’.
Fack off.

Where is this conference? Not very well-mannered is he? If I were at a conference at Cambridge U I wouldn't sound off about Fenland Tech in the swamps.

Foxy

While not letting a wider trade war happen should help Sunak reduce the downside risk to his polling. there is a risk of open warfare in his own party, perhaps some upside if he can win it. A lot of downside if he provokes an open challenge.

I don't think much upside for him in the polling though. Few in Great Britain are bothered about Northern Ireland of its truculent politicians.

Sandpit

Rather amusing that Putin could put up an anniversary troll on PB last night, but couldn’t put up any anniversary missiles in Ukraine.

FF43

Theuniondivvie said:

A ‘major international conference on wokeism’.
Fack off.

The question seems to answer itself

NickPalmer

A nice constructive thread this morning, by the way - no trolls, no culture war. Feels agreeably retro.

Cicero

I for one certainly hope he can sign a deal on Northern Ireland.

However I don´t think it makes any difference, firstly because to most voters NI is of marginal interest at best and secondly they have already made up their mind that after Johnson, Truss and Brexit, the Tories do not get another term.

In the same way that the Tories were always going to lose after Black Wednesday (it was just a question of how badly), so the Tories now face an irrecoverable position after the fall of Johnson and Truss.

Nigelb

.

FF43 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A ‘major international conference on wokeism’.
Fack off.

The question seems to answer itself

At least they can’t say it was cancelled - then no one would have turned up.

Foxy

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

This contract took place in July 2020. At that time Britain was opened up, indeed our PM was encouraging us to "eat out to help out". It wasn't in the first wave.

Carnyx

NickPalmer said:

A nice constructive thread this morning, by the way - no trolls, no culture war. Feels agreeably retro.

Indeed, like British cookery looks like it's going to be on the fruit and veg line.

ON which I've just noticed this new exhibition - especially for @Malmesbury and @JosiasJessop as well. The design is quite something. Mulling over going to see it myself.

https://tankmuseum.org/article/new-exhibition-tanks-for-the-memories

Razedabode

Perhaps Sunak realises that the only way the party - long term - moves forward is by lancing the ERG boil.

I think the fact he is pressing ahead is a positive for leadership overall. The ERGers seem to be harping back to a time most have moved on from

Mexicanpete

SouthamObserver said:

I think Sunak would deserve plaudits for facing down the ERG and DUP to deliver a deal the majority in Northern Ireland clearly wants. After all, there is no NIP deal the loons will accept because the only acceptable deal for them is one the EU would never do. And Sunak has clearly won meaningful concessions by not being the confrontational idiots Johnson, Frost and Truss were.

If Sunak does go ahead without their support, I think it will help his own ratings immensely. But I don’t see how it would do anything other than tear the Tories even further apart.

That’s why I still have my doubts he’ll do it. But I hope I’m wrong. Some things are too important for partisanship. Ukraine is one, a better relationship with the EU is another.

Sunak has nothing to lose staring down Johnson and the ERG. Come the May elections they will be making hay of the results and shoehorning Johnson back into No 10 anyway. The DUP are not as relevant as Mrs May made them, so call their bluff too

Johnson made personal support for himself as a mark of loyalty to the Conservative Party in Autumn 2019, Sunak should do the same, "support my plan or you're out". OK so he might then have a minority government, but he could remind them if he calls a snap election the availability of Sub-Postmaster roles for former Conservative MPs are not as plentiful as they once were

DecrepiterJohnL

Bookmakers' Single Customer View.

Bookmakers have started sharing information about punters so that if you self-exclude from one, this will be passed on to the others. The sinister side is that if any one bookmaker decides your betting is getting out of hand, you will be banned across the industry. You may have noticed messages about changed privacy terms when you bet recently.
https://thedatashed.co.uk/case-study/gamstop/

CarlottaVance

“You can never give these people enough, that’s ultimately the situation,” he said. “There just has to come a point where a line is drawn.

“The difference this time is that Theresa never had Labour to back her up.

“That carries a risk for Rishi, but at least he would be able to get a deal through the Commons because he would also have the support of the majority of Conservative MPs.

“Some colleagues also need to realise that if this isn’t solved by this prime minister, it will be resolved under a Labour government and that is the worst case scenario.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/is-rishi-sunak-turning-into-theresa-may-over-brexit_uk_63f7490be4b0616708dfdaab

Yup. If Sunak can’t get this through the EU will simply say “Fine, we’ll wait for Starmer, who’ll probably give us a better deal from our point of view anyway….”

Nigelb

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

This contract took place in July 2020. At that time Britain was opened up, indeed our PM was encouraging us to "eat out to help out". It wasn't in the first wave.

It’s a bit pathetic that we couldn’t develop LFTs ourselves, and had to buy them from China via a U.S. middleman. They’re not that complicated.

Carnyx

FF43 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A ‘major international conference on wokeism’.
Fack off.

The question seems to answer itself

OTOH I believe Mr G is still Prof G. Is the University of Kent not a reputable enough university for him to organise a conference at his own university?

Sandpit

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Bookmakers' Single Customer View.

Bookmakers have started sharing information about punters so that if you self-exclude from one, this will be passed on to the others. The sinister side is that if any one bookmaker decides your betting is getting out of hand, you will be banned across the industry. You may have noticed messages about changed privacy terms when you bet recently.
https://thedatashed.co.uk/case-study/gamstop/

Class-action lawsuit against the bookies, in 3,2,1…

Won’t be long before everyone starts hanging around shops again.

Nigelb

Cicero said:

I for one certainly hope he can sign a deal on Northern Ireland.

However I don´t think it makes any difference, firstly because to most voters NI is of marginal interest at best and secondly they have already made up their mind that after Johnson, Truss and Brexit, the Tories do not get another term.

In the same way that the Tories were always going to lose after Black Wednesday (it was just a question of how badly), so the Tories now face an irrecoverable position after the fall of Johnson and Truss.

If Sunak can pull off a year or so of semi-decent government, it might reduce the scale of the loss a bit ?

Carnyx

Mexicanpete said:

SouthamObserver said:

I think Sunak would deserve plaudits for facing down the ERG and DUP to deliver a deal the majority in Northern Ireland clearly wants. After all, there is no NIP deal the loons will accept because the only acceptable deal for them is one the EU would never do. And Sunak has clearly won meaningful concessions by not being the confrontational idiots Johnson, Frost and Truss were.

If Sunak does go ahead without their support, I think it will help his own ratings immensely. But I don’t see how it would do anything other than tear the Tories even further apart.

That’s why I still have my doubts he’ll do it. But I hope I’m wrong. Some things are too important for partisanship. Ukraine is one, a better relationship with the EU is another.

Sunak has nothing to lose staring down Johnson and the ERG. Come the May elections they will be making hay of the results and shoehorning Johnson back into No 10 anyway. The DUP are not as relevant as Mrs May made them, so call their bluff too

Johnson made personal support for himself as a mark of loyalty to the Conservative Party in Autumn 2019, Sunak should do the same, "support my plan or you're out". OK so he might then have a minority government, but he could remind them if he calls a snap election the availability of Sub-Postmaster roles for former Conservative MPs are not as plentiful as they once were

Mind, they were more likely to go to jail for dodgy accounting if they became subpostmasters ...

Mexicanpete

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

Is there any Conservative government corruption you wouldn't wave through as acceptable "in a crisis"?As others have pointed out the immediate crisis had passed.

What was stopping NHS procurement managers buying directly off AliBaba rather than paying a friend or relative of a Government Minister to buy from AliBaba and then passing the consignment on at 1000% markup?

Nigelb

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

This contract took place in July 2020. At that time Britain was opened up, indeed our PM was encouraging us to "eat out to help out". It wasn't in the first wave.

It’s a bit pathetic that we couldn’t develop LFTs ourselves, and had to buy them from China via a U.S. middleman. They’re not that complicated.

The ability to manufacture them quickly in response to a new pandemic virus might also be very useful.
Imagine a respiratory virus more deadly, but a bit less infectious than Covid. Rapid availability of LFTs might obviate the need for lockdowns.

Mexicanpete

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

SouthamObserver said:

I think Sunak would deserve plaudits for facing down the ERG and DUP to deliver a deal the majority in Northern Ireland clearly wants. After all, there is no NIP deal the loons will accept because the only acceptable deal for them is one the EU would never do. And Sunak has clearly won meaningful concessions by not being the confrontational idiots Johnson, Frost and Truss were.

If Sunak does go ahead without their support, I think it will help his own ratings immensely. But I don’t see how it would do anything other than tear the Tories even further apart.

That’s why I still have my doubts he’ll do it. But I hope I’m wrong. Some things are too important for partisanship. Ukraine is one, a better relationship with the EU is another.

Sunak has nothing to lose staring down Johnson and the ERG. Come the May elections they will be making hay of the results and shoehorning Johnson back into No 10 anyway. The DUP are not as relevant as Mrs May made them, so call their bluff too

Johnson made personal support for himself as a mark of loyalty to the Conservative Party in Autumn 2019, Sunak should do the same, "support my plan or you're out". OK so he might then have a minority government, but he could remind them if he calls a snap election the availability of Sub-Postmaster roles for former Conservative MPs are not as plentiful as they once were

Mind, they were more likely to go to jail for dodgy accounting if they became subpostmasters ...

A covert punishment of former Tory MPs by the New Labour Government and their masters at Fujitsu. Not a matter for merriment I know.

CarlottaVance

Interesting statement from #Ukraine's head of military intelligence, who said he believes that if Russia had taken the Hostomel airport last year, Kyiv would likely have fallen….

For those still thinking the "three days" to take Kyiv was not real:

The New York Times released a piece that includes leaked documents showing Russia even planned for units to get to Kyiv in 13 hours...

The documents showed the timing of the column's departure and arrival. It also matches with how fast Russia tried to take Hostomel, despite having effectively failed to truly take control of the skies.

So no, this is not a myth, or a talking point.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1629405989786058752?s=20

JosiasJessop

Mexicanpete said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

Is there any Conservative government corruption you wouldn't wave through as acceptable "in a crisis"?
(snip)

Many. I am not a fan of the Conservative Party. But remember how Labour were calling for all sorts of untried providers for PPE equipment earlier in the crisis? Yes, there should be an enquiry into this, and the truth might be nasty for the government and people in it. But this Pavlovian reaction of 'corruption!' may not be the truth. Not that you care...

CarlottaVance

Nigelb said:

Cicero said:

I for one certainly hope he can sign a deal on Northern Ireland.

However I don´t think it makes any difference, firstly because to most voters NI is of marginal interest at best and secondly they have already made up their mind that after Johnson, Truss and Brexit, the Tories do not get another term.

In the same way that the Tories were always going to lose after Black Wednesday (it was just a question of how badly), so the Tories now face an irrecoverable position after the fall of Johnson and Truss.

If Sunak can pull off a year or so of semi-decent government, it might reduce the scale of the loss a bit ?

Yes - party ratings - let alone Leader shows the Tories are on the way out, the only question is whether it’s from a second floor window or a tenth…

JosiasJessop

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

This contract took place in July 2020. At that time Britain was opened up, indeed our PM was encouraging us to "eat out to help out". It wasn't in the first wave.

Wow. Four months after the start of the crisis. LFTs were still available well over a year later, free of charge and in massive numbers. We needed to procure them. Maybe this deal was corrupt; perhaps it was one of the things necessary to allow us to live our lives months later, in between the lockdowns?

SouthamObserver

The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.

algarkirk

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

Sunak's problem is clear.

The Tory party has become the mirror image of Labour. I have generally voted Tory in GEs for 50 years. Through Blair and everything else. Now I won't. Why?

Labour go through phases of being electable - like now. And other phases. In the other times the leadership and/or dominant groups render it unacceptable for centrist non-populist One Nation voters to vote for them. They then NEVER win. Not once.

Tory membership, MPs and voters now include a substantial group of populist, amoral, illiberal and divisive people. Some in the cabinet. The sort who make it impossible for centrists to vote for them.

Just like Labour always have to choose between leftish populism and winning, so the Tories are now their mirror.

Stuartinromford

CarlottaVance said:

“You can never give these people enough, that’s ultimately the situation,” he said. “There just has to come a point where a line is drawn.

“The difference this time is that Theresa never had Labour to back her up.

“That carries a risk for Rishi, but at least he would be able to get a deal through the Commons because he would also have the support of the majority of Conservative MPs.

“Some colleagues also need to realise that if this isn’t solved by this prime minister, it will be resolved under a Labour government and that is the worst case scenario.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/is-rishi-sunak-turning-into-theresa-may-over-brexit_uk_63f7490be4b0616708dfdaab

Yup. If Sunak can’t get this through the EU will simply say “Fine, we’ll wait for Starmer, who’ll probably give us a better deal from our point of view anyway….”

Though neither group set to cause trouble (the DUP or unrepentant Johnsonites) has the exact working of the NI protocol as their main issue. It's just the current symptom of a wider malaise that can't really be solved.

The DUP can only enter the executive as Sinn Fein's deputies, because that's the maths. Boris can't be Prime Minister again, because he's too discredited with too many people, even on the Conservative side.

But quite a lot of everything, 2014-now wasn't really about Britain and the EU, was it? And that's true on all sides.

Heathener

No the Sunak NI deal will not be the making of him. It's remarkable how similar this is to 1992-7. If he pulls it off then he will leave a legacy on Northern Ireland, just as John Major did.

It will make not one jot of difference to the outcome of the General Election.

nico679

I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .

And of course the fat lying oaf Johnson won’t be happy .

The ERG will of course find something to moan about as they can’t seem to cope if the UK and EU aren’t at constant loggerheads .

The DUP will of course be unhappy about some aspect of any deal which is still likely to include some role for the ECJ . NI could actually see an economic boost if this deal gets done .

JosiasJessop

NickPalmer said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

Yes, in a crisis (or indeed not in a crisis) I'd also have referred any enquiry into the right place at once. I do that sort of referral even now. The two problems are (a) why the route wasn't easily-accessible knowledge to any interested party (there shouldn't be a VIP lane at all) and (b) the perception that a company referred by a Number 10 adviser would get priority.

During the Kabul evacuation, I'm told that the FO prioritised Afghans referred to them by MPs. I don't blame the MPs - if you're asked to help ensure that a desperate case gets attention, you have to do your best. But it shouldn't get special treatment for them, just proper treatment.

I don't know the full details of the 'VIP lane', But if you're in a hurry, and you're getting hundreds of possible providers suggested, it might be a good idea to quickly whittle them down; give priority to the ones that appear most likely to work. Otherwise you spend weeks or months procuring. I don't like the term 'VIP' for that purpose, and perhaps that's not the way it worked.

If you don't prioritise, you waste time. Sometimes any decision is better than a delayed decision. I'd argue it may have been the same with the Afghans as well.

Heathener

algarkirk said:

DavidL said:

I have been critical before of Sunak not taking centre stage nearly enough for a PM, just getting on with it behind the scenes. It can work for a Chancellor but not a PM where it makes the government look leaderless and directionless.

But a result like this would help, it certainly would.

Sunak's problem is clear.

The Tory party has become the mirror image of Labour. I have generally voted Tory in GEs for 50 years. Through Blair and everything else. Now I won't. Why?

Labour go through phases of being electable - like now. And other phases. In the other times the leadership and/or dominant groups render it unacceptable for centrist non-populist One Nation voters to vote for them. They then NEVER win. Not once.

Tory membership, MPs and voters now include a substantial group of populist, amoral, illiberal and divisive people. Some in the cabinet. The sort who make it impossible for centrists to vote for them.

Just like Labour always have to choose between leftish populism and winning, so the Tories are now their mirror.

Great post.

After the defeat the Conservatives will need good people like you to help it rebuild.

FF43

Carnyx said:

FF43 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A ‘major international conference on wokeism’.
Fack off.

The question seems to answer itself

OTOH I believe Mr G is still Prof G. Is the University of Kent not a reputable enough university for him to organise a conference at his own university?

To be fair to the good professor, I think wokeism would be a good topic for a conference. I am talking about the phenomenon, how people develop conspiracy theories, use labels such as "woke" to denigrate those with different ideas from themselves to shut down debate, and how very wealthy individuals and shadowy organisations work with politicians and use social media to promote their agenda.

I don't think that's what this conference is about however.

Mexicanpete

JosiasJessop said:

Mexicanpete said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

Is there any Conservative government corruption you wouldn't wave through as acceptable "in a crisis"?
(snip)

Many. I am not a fan of the Conservative Party. But remember how Labour were calling for all sorts of untried providers for PPE equipment earlier in the crisis? Yes, there should be an enquiry into this, and the truth might be nasty for the government and people in it. But this Pavlovian reaction of 'corruption!' may not be the truth. Not that you care...

Yes there was panic on all sides, but enough in Government had a clear enough head to see an opportunity for a grift.

In 2010 we were worrying about " cash for honours", duck houses and sending Labour MPs to jail for corruptly claiming a few grand here and there. The fast track friends of the Conservative Party weren't just creaming off the top of the public purse, they were ladelling cash out. This is a scandal so enormous (fat, back in Roald Dahl's day) that the inquiry should be by the Fraud Squad, and significant custodial sentences awaiting those involved (even perhaps those in high office) if investigated, charged and convicted.

algarkirk

SouthamObserver said:

The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.

Yes. But for the 'Brexit single issue' situation in 2019 both parties, when looked at, were unelectable on political and moral grounds (though In suppose it was rational for some to assume Boris would mature as PM).

We are now it a state where, if certain quite possible events occur we shall one day have a GE between populism of the left and of the right with no alternative in sight.

Heathener

nico679 said:

I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .

It won't move the opinion polls one iota.

It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.

CarlottaVance

Jonathan Freedland on the challenges facing an incoming Labour government:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/25/keir-starmer-election-britain-politics

Nigelb

.

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting statement from #Ukraine's head of military intelligence, who said he believes that if Russia had taken the Hostomel airport last year, Kyiv would likely have fallen….

For those still thinking the "three days" to take Kyiv was not real:

The New York Times released a piece that includes leaked documents showing Russia even planned for units to get to Kyiv in 13 hours...

The documents showed the timing of the column's departure and arrival. It also matches with how fast Russia tried to take Hostomel, despite having effectively failed to truly take control of the skies.

So no, this is not a myth, or a talking point.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1629405989786058752?s=20

Just as well they had a warning from the US, a month earlier, of the likely plan.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-oral-history-00083757
BILL BURNS: I saw Zelenskyy in the middle of January to lay out the most recent intelligence we had about Russian planning for the invasion, which by that point had sharpened its focus to come straight across the Belarus frontier — just a relatively short drive from Kyiv — to take Kyiv, decapitate the regime and establish a pro-Russian government there. With some fair amount of detail, including, for example, the Russian intent to seize an airport northwest of Kyiv called Hostomel, and use that as a platform to bring in airborne forces as well to accelerate the seizure of Kyiv...

DecrepiterJohnL

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Bookmakers' Single Customer View.

Bookmakers have started sharing information about punters so that if you self-exclude from one, this will be passed on to the others. The sinister side is that if any one bookmaker decides your betting is getting out of hand, you will be banned across the industry. You may have noticed messages about changed privacy terms when you bet recently.
https://thedatashed.co.uk/case-study/gamstop/

Class-action lawsuit against the bookies, in 3,2,1…

Won’t be long before everyone starts hanging around shops again.

I'm trying to decide if the risk of customer details being stolen from the Single Customer View database is more or less than the risk from individual bookmaker databases.

The Gambling Commission has rightly become exercised by risks of vulnerable "addicts" doing their life savings and has knee-jerked itself into disproportionate "solutions" like this one.

FF43

Good summary of Sunak's dilemma.

I like the headline: It's Rishi Sunak's turn to face a hellish appointment with Brexit

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1629397879654686722

JosiasJessop

Mexicanpete said:

JosiasJessop said:

Mexicanpete said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

Is there any Conservative government corruption you wouldn't wave through as acceptable "in a crisis"?
(snip)

Many. I am not a fan of the Conservative Party. But remember how Labour were calling for all sorts of untried providers for PPE equipment earlier in the crisis? Yes, there should be an enquiry into this, and the truth might be nasty for the government and people in it. But this Pavlovian reaction of 'corruption!' may not be the truth. Not that you care...

Yes there was panic on all sides, but enough in Government had a clear enough head to see an opportunity for a grift.

In 2010 we were worrying about " cash for honours", duck houses and sending Labour MPs to jail for corruptly claiming a few grand here and there. The fast track friends of the Conservative Party weren't just creaming off the top of the public purse, they were ladelling cash out. This is a scandal so enormous (fat, back in Roald Dahl's day) that the inquiry should be by the Fraud Squad, and significant custodial sentences awaiting those involved (even perhaps those in high office) if investigated, charged and convicted.

These are *accusations*. They may, or may not, be true. If you are right, then yes, there should be stiff custodial sentences (and money retrieved).

If the accusations are true.

But if a similar crisis happens with Labour in power (and I really hope it doesn't), I hope the government doesn't follow normal processes then, either. In fact, I hope this government isn't following 'normal' processes in getting kit to Ukraine. When something's time-critical, sometimes it needs to be done.

Anabobazina

Theuniondivvie said:

A ‘major international conference on wokeism’.
Fack off.

Goodwin really is an absolute joke

Foxy

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Bookmakers' Single Customer View.

Bookmakers have started sharing information about punters so that if you self-exclude from one, this will be passed on to the others. The sinister side is that if any one bookmaker decides your betting is getting out of hand, you will be banned across the industry. You may have noticed messages about changed privacy terms when you bet recently.
https://thedatashed.co.uk/case-study/gamstop/

Class-action lawsuit against the bookies, in 3,2,1…

Won’t be long before everyone starts hanging around shops again.

Sounds very much to me that they are operating as a cartel. Any competition lawyers about?

DavidL

Anabobazina said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A ‘major international conference on wokeism’.
Fack off.

Goodwin really is an absolute joke

Maybe they were washing their hair that day (any day)?

DecrepiterJohnL

JosiasJessop said:

NickPalmer said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

Yes, in a crisis (or indeed not in a crisis) I'd also have referred any enquiry into the right place at once. I do that sort of referral even now. The two problems are (a) why the route wasn't easily-accessible knowledge to any interested party (there shouldn't be a VIP lane at all) and (b) the perception that a company referred by a Number 10 adviser would get priority.

During the Kabul evacuation, I'm told that the FO prioritised Afghans referred to them by MPs. I don't blame the MPs - if you're asked to help ensure that a desperate case gets attention, you have to do your best. But it shouldn't get special treatment for them, just proper treatment.

I don't know the full details of the 'VIP lane', But if you're in a hurry, and you're getting hundreds of possible providers suggested, it might be a good idea to quickly whittle them down; give priority to the ones that appear most likely to work. Otherwise you spend weeks or months procuring. I don't like the term 'VIP' for that purpose, and perhaps that's not the way it worked.

If you don't prioritise, you waste time. Sometimes any decision is better than a delayed decision. I'd argue it may have been the same with the Afghans as well.

The VIP lane did not prioritise solutions "most likely to work". It prioritised those coming through VIPs (the clue is in the name). Dominic Cummings or Baroness Mome were not carrying out extensive clinical tests before passing suppliers up the line.

Dura_Ace

Heathener said:

nico679 said:

I expect Sunak to get a decent boost if he can get a deal with the EU .

It won't move the opinion polls one iota.

It's about Northern Ireland. It won't bring tomatoes back onto the shelves.

I don't think I've ever heard any normal person ever mention the NIP. Even my family in the 6C who don't exactly meet the 'normal' qualification but still...

Sunak does have a competent and utterly cynical crew around him so it'll be marketed as the greatest triumph for the English nation since Italy 1 - England 1 (3-2 after pens) at Euro 2021.

If the tories do scratch a NOM in the next GE it'll be because of their voter suppression shenanigans. I hope, but do not expect, that the country will be ungovernable should that eventuate.

Scott_xP

SouthamObserver said:

The longer term Tory problem is how to take the party back from the radicalised right. The danger is that Sunak facing down the ERG may not be the start of something, but an act of defiance in what is ultimately a losing battle. Two non-loon MP deselections yesterday further confirm a worrying direction of travel at constituency level.

It depends...

If you think the deselection of non-loon candidates make a loon Parliamentary party more likely, then yes, it is worrying.

If the selection of loons makes their defeat more likely, then it is perhaps the first step on the road back to sanity

Scott_xP

RochdalePioneers said:

As far as a parliamentary vote is concerned, Sunak will win regardless of how large an ERG rebellion he suffers as Labour and the other opposition parties will support it. If the rebels get gobby, face them down and make it clear that the government will consider a loss of majority on a confidence motion as necessitating a General Election, shutting the door on the idea of putting Shagger back into Downing Street.

Matthew Parris agrees with you

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-has-his-best-chance-to-spike-tory-crazies-ffwhxcvvl

malcolmg

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

“Good Law Project has seen emails revealing that former No.10 advisor Dominic Cummings referred an offer from two middlemen representing US-based Innova Medical Group within a single hour of being approached.”
https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1629393006943170562

GLP: https://goodlawproject.org/new-company-with-just-85-in-the-bank-made-20m-profit-after-dominic-cummings-referred-innova-medical-into-the-vip-lane/

This may be outrageous. But imagine the outcry from people if we had not got the LFTs.

People forget we were in a crisis. I fear if normal government procurement systems were in place, we might have been waiting a year later...

Pathetic reply , robbing the public is right and proper, what kind of principles and morals do you have, I suggest few.

Scott_xP

Carnyx said:

NickPalmer said:

A nice constructive thread this morning, by the way - no trolls, no culture war. Feels agreeably retro.

Indeed, like British cookery looks like it's going to be on the fruit and veg line.

@donaeldunready: Amazing that we're now at the point where 5 fruit and veg a day is Britain's import target.

HYUFD

All very well but any deal without DUP approval is pointless as the main point of negotiations is to get them, as largest Unionist party in Northern Ireland, back into the Stormont Executive

Dura_Ace

Theuniondivvie said:

A ‘major international conference on wokeism’.
Fack off.

Headline Panel:

Leon
Casino
Ron DeSantis
Andrew Tate (via Zoom)

IanB2

Typical Brexiters, all p**s and wind...

Foxy

CarlottaVance said:

Jonathan Freedland on the challenges facing an incoming Labour government:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/25/keir-starmer-election-britain-politics

With the first paragraph as all about how focus groups see Britain as in a grim state with non functional government services.