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Why Boris might not be the answer for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 13 in General
Why Boris might not be the answer for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

On an MRP of our 'who would be the best PM' question, Sunak comes ahead in far more seats than Johnson (but both trail Starmer)Starmer v SunakStarmer: 389 seatsSunak: 127Not sure: 116Starmer v JohnsonStarmer: 594Johnson: 38Not sure: 0https://t.co/ONLsGY8WqO pic.twitter.com/iwVMzKhVJc

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Comments

  • I agree that's a really interesting analysis -- although if you'd asked me beforehand I'd've probably said Johnson plays better in the north, Sunak in the south.

    What would be even more interesting is to see whether the same conclusion holds if we unwind the Labour lead a bit. It's highly unlikely Labour will be riding this high in the polls come the next GE, so if we take, say, 10% off their current polling lead, is the conclusion still valid?

    I suspect it is...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,436
    edited November 13
    Another interesting thing about the (first) map set, is that there are a few constituencies - for example, two on eastern side of Greater Birmingham (or whatever you call it) - where Boris Johnson outperforms Rishi Sunak versus Keir Starmer, at least according to the modeling.
  • Looking forward, the next US Senate seat to be decided will be in Alaska.

    Where currently situation is as follows:
    estimated 80% of votes counted, for first preferences:

    Kelly Tshibaka Rep 94,138 44.2%
    Lisa Murkowski* Rep 91,205 42.8%
    Pat Chesbro Dem 20,265 9.5%
    Buzz Kelley Rep 6,244 2.9%
    Total Write-Ins 1,056 0.5%
    Total reported 212,908

    Assuming that remaining votes do not alter above percentages, at least not too much, then next rounds of counting could look something like this:

    > writeins eliminated, with some but not many with 2nd-pref transfers to ones on ballot
    > Buzz Kelley eliminated, with his vote mostly splitting between Tshibaka and Murkowski
    > Pat Chesbro eliminated with her vote breaking heavily for Murkowski, thus reelecting her

    Hard to see this scenario NOT playing out UNLESS the remaining 20% of votes to be counted (initially for 1st-prefs) are substantially more favorable to Tshibaka than the already-counted 80%.
  • And looking beyond the Last Frontier to the Peach State Runoff 2022, am wondering to what extent fact that Democrats will already control the US Senate will take some of the steam out of the race?

    Some on both sides, but with a differential impact slightly favorable to Warnock, on theory that suburban voters will tend to turn out anyway, because that's what they tend to do, more so than urban or rural voters of all hues & cries?

    Amazing how in recent years, State of Georgia has morphed into a Laboratory of Democracy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    Those maps are odd, making me wonder about the data. Looking at the Isle of Wight, for example - it prefers Sunak to Starmer but Starmer to Johnson. So I’d expect to see it coloured for Sunak in the Sunak v Johnson map, but it isn’t, it’s coloured for Johnson. How does that work?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729

    I agree that's a really interesting analysis -- although if you'd asked me beforehand I'd've probably said Johnson plays better in the north, Sunak in the south.

    What would be even more interesting is to see whether the same conclusion holds if we unwind the Labour lead a bit. It's highly unlikely Labour will be riding this high in the polls come the next GE, so if we take, say, 10% off their current polling lead, is the conclusion still valid?

    I suspect it is...

    Or, the other way of looking at things, is to wait for Sunak to become unpopular for something, and then see how the geography of that unpopularity falls. We already know why Johnson is unpopular, and that falls more heavily in the South. Sunak is still a blank canvas pending next week.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    IanB2 said:

    Those maps are odd, making me wonder about the data. Looking at the Isle of Wight, for example - it prefers Sunak to Starmer but Starmer to Johnson. So I’d expect to see it coloured for Sunak in the Sunak v Johnson map, but it isn’t, it’s coloured for Johnson. How does that work?

    The key thing to understand is that those maps are not illustrating popularity but rather the scale of their unpopularity.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    rcs1000 said:

    @SeaShantyIrish2 -

    Trump and Trumpistas and election denialism has been absolute poison in 2022.

    The US economy is not in great shape. Mortgage rates are rising. Gas bills are rising. House prices are falling. Layoffs are beginning.

    Now, you can argue about how much these things are the fault of Joe Biden and the Democrats. But voters usually don't care about ultimate causes.

    Add to this the concerns about crime, and a President that is visibly... ageing.

    Despite all this, and the fact that first midterms are usually a disaster for the governing party...

    It is not inconceivable that the Dems will have gained a seat in the Senate and are just a single special election away from control of the House.

    And all because of DJT.

    Trump and Johnson: two cheeks of the same rancid arse.

    Both are weighing down their parties. Soon the revolutionaries will be lynched by Republican and Tory counter-revolutionaries.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,842
    IanB2 said:

    I agree that's a really interesting analysis -- although if you'd asked me beforehand I'd've probably said Johnson plays better in the north, Sunak in the south.

    What would be even more interesting is to see whether the same conclusion holds if we unwind the Labour lead a bit. It's highly unlikely Labour will be riding this high in the polls come the next GE, so if we take, say, 10% off their current polling lead, is the conclusion still valid?

    I suspect it is...

    Or, the other way of looking at things, is to wait for Sunak to become unpopular for something, and then see how the geography of that unpopularity falls. We already know why Johnson is unpopular, and that falls more heavily in the South. Sunak is still a blank canvas pending next week.
    Good morning Ian and this is a very good point. We are probably currently at peak Rishi popularity, which shows just how bad things are for the tories.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,842
    edited November 13
    Woke up to the news about the Democrats keeping control of the Senate, and most likely going on to win it outright 51-49.

    It's a stunning result in the context.

    Betting on a largely unknown Ron de Santis in 2024 against the proven winner Joe Biden is, in my opinion, foolish unless the odds are generous. I would want 10-1 before going in.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,842
    On topic Labour 389 seats Conservatives 127 may not be a million miles away from the result.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    Sunak to freeze income tax thresholds until 2028.

    Cheers Dave! That commitment to a Brexit referendum was a really good idea.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    Who’d’ve thunk that a pro-Brexit Red Tory would struggle to beat this shower of clowns, charlatans and criminals?

    NOM 2.3
    Lab Maj 2.4
    Con Maj 5.7

    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,657
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: the sprint bullshit remains a stupid format, despite the commentators going ga-ga for an exciting race (with regulations that improve overtaking on a circuit that was already the best on the calendar, and multiple cars out of position due to qualifying rain).

    However, it is useful for insight into how the race might pan out.

    May offer a tip this morning or afternoon (I'm out later this morning), but no blogging. I know, you're all very sad about that.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,821

    Who’d’ve thunk that a pro-Brexit Red Tory would struggle to beat this shower of clowns, charlatans and criminals?

    NOM 2.3
    Lab Maj 2.4
    Con Maj 5.7

    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    Could be in the same way that the betting markets a week ago proved that Biden was a dud!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    It’s a beautiful morning today, the brightness starting to come up over the sea, and in the distance the lights of a small fishing boat coming home with its catch.
  • The analysis that underlies this thread is interesting but not timely. Thursday's budget is likely to change voters' perception of Rishi.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,821
    edited November 13
    The Betfair price for a Democrat Senate majority still puzzles me. If people haven't read the rules and/or don't realise that Democrat control will rely on senators who aren't officially Democrats, then I can see why they would bet on it. But why doesn't the price give them a clue that they are missing something?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    This morning's Times: energy bills to be hiked massively for most working households in the Spring; old people (regardless of wealth) to continue to benefit from existing price cap. Quelle fucking surprise.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    The Siege of Kherson is over.

    The Siege of Crimea has begun.

    I've laid out the logistics of the Kherson siege previously, plus the water implications for Crimea if Kherson's right bank fell.

    Now it is time for a Crimean siege logistical 🧵
    1/


    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1591612965316612097
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    edited November 13
    Chris said:

    Who’d’ve thunk that a pro-Brexit Red Tory would struggle to beat this shower of clowns, charlatans and criminals?

    NOM 2.3
    Lab Maj 2.4
    Con Maj 5.7

    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    Could be in the same way that the betting markets a week ago proved that Biden was a dud!
    Dem/Rep in USA was and is knife-edge (50/49 and 204/211 at time of writing).

    Lab/Con in England ought to be a punters’ slam-dunk. That it’s not is a dreadful verdict on the useless Labour front bench. A pitiful bunch of third-raters, starting at the top.

    The Tories were not the only party crippled by Brexit.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219

    The analysis that underlies this thread is interesting but not timely. Thursday's budget is likely to change voters' perception of Rishi.

    For the worse.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    edited November 13

    Sunak to freeze income tax thresholds until 2028.

    Cheers Dave! That commitment to a Brexit referendum was a really good idea.

    When the LibDems campaigned on their policy of raising the personal allowance in 2010, Conservatives opposed it; then when in coalition signed up to it, and subsequently did their best to make us think that it was their idea all along. Now inflation will unwind all of the improvement and the Tories will take things right back to where we started.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    edited November 13
    IanB2 said:

    It’s a beautiful morning today, the brightness starting to come up over the sea, and in the distance the lights of a small fishing boat coming home with its catch.

    Which, due to climate collapse, consists of Yellow-fin tuna.

    https://ednh.news/tropical-fish-swim-into-europes-waters-as-common-species-head-north/
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,842
    Chris said:

    Who’d’ve thunk that a pro-Brexit Red Tory would struggle to beat this shower of clowns, charlatans and criminals?

    NOM 2.3
    Lab Maj 2.4
    Con Maj 5.7

    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    Could be in the same way that the betting markets a week ago proved that Biden was a dud!
    Yep. Joe Biden is constantly underestimated. So is Keir Starmer.

    Both likely to be in power by 2025.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,842



    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    You're declaring Starmer a "dud" Stuart based on punters, not on opinion polling. Starmer's Labour have a c. 20% lead in the polls, and that's during Rishi's honeymoon.

    As the betting markets have shown in recent years, there is a time lag and a tendency to bet on the past, not on the present nor likely future. Much of the liquidity is evidently made up of people who don't study the data properly and who don't know what they're doing.

    Pb.com is above that and better. You should be too. Starmer may not excite you, nor does Joe Biden. Neither are 'duds'.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    ..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    Good morning cricket fans!

    England win the toss, and will field. No sign of rain so far, but it’s coming.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    With the World Cup coming up I've realised they best way to refer to Trafalgar is as a Psychic Octopus.

    I demand that from now on their full name is "Psychic Octopus Trafalgar."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    Heathener said:



    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    You're declaring Starmer a "dud" Stuart based on punters, not on opinion polling. Starmer's Labour have a c. 20% lead in the polls, and that's during Rishi's honeymoon.
    When people write that "Starmer is a dud" I try to think of the last time Labour had a dull, managerial leader and Clement Attlee springs to mind. The difference is Attlee had some heavyweights in his Cabinet - Starmer does not yet appear to.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,070
    Best for Reps: 220 - 215
    Best for Dems 218 - 217

    Don't think anything else is realistic now.

    219 Rep - 216 Dem looks most likely, but it could be a one seat majority and go all hanging-chad again.

    Skin of the teeth stuff.
  • Chris said:

    The Betfair price for a Democrat Senate majority still puzzles me. If people haven't read the rules and/or don't realise that Democrat control will rely on senators who aren't officially Democrats, then I can see why they would bet on it. But why doesn't the price give them a clue that they are missing something?

    It does not help that most reports will say that Democrats have won 50 seats (with one more to be decided) without the qualification that not all Democrats are Democrats.

    Betfair prices for the number of Democrat Senate seats are perhaps a more obvious clue something is amiss, with four numbers from 48, 49, 50 and 51 in play, although as I type, prices are changing so it looks like someone else has just noticed there is something funny going on, and another someone has not read the rules.

  • Alistair said:

    With the World Cup coming up I've realised they best way to refer to Trafalgar is as a Psychic Octopus.

    I demand that from now on their full name is "Psychic Octopus Trafalgar."

    Agreed.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,295
    rcs1000 said:

    @SeaShantyIrish2 -

    Trump and Trumpistas and election denialism has been absolute poison in 2022.

    The US economy is not in great shape. Mortgage rates are rising. Gas bills are rising. House prices are falling. Layoffs are beginning.

    Now, you can argue about how much these things are the fault of Joe Biden and the Democrats. But voters usually don't care about ultimate causes.

    Add to this the concerns about crime, and a President that is visibly... ageing.

    Despite all this, and the fact that first midterms are usually a disaster for the governing party...

    It is not inconceivable that the Dems will have gained a seat in the Senate and are just a single special election away from control of the House.

    And all because of DJT.

    I suspect too that the voters are different this year, more younger people, more women maybe more minorities.
    The issues are also different, with the SC decision on Roe v Wade and with Trump's election deniers running for office.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,023
    edited November 13
    Heathener said:

    Chris said:

    Who’d’ve thunk that a pro-Brexit Red Tory would struggle to beat this shower of clowns, charlatans and criminals?

    NOM 2.3
    Lab Maj 2.4
    Con Maj 5.7

    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    Could be in the same way that the betting markets a week ago proved that Biden was a dud!
    Yep. Joe Biden is constantly underestimated. So is Keir Starmer.

    Both likely to be in power by 2025.
    Good morning

    Biden's age is catching him up and he was so embarrassing at COP27 yesterday when be confused the hosts with Colombia

    I very much doubt by 24 he will be seen as the future of the US but at least the good news is the Trump era looks over

    As far as Starmer is concerned he has not yet sealed the deal and while firm favourite for 24 two years is a long time in politics

    The commentariate were convinced the Republicans would have a successful mid term and we can see how that has worked out

  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,821
    IanB2 said:

    ..

    The funny thing is they look as though they're laughing at her, not with her.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,467

    The analysis that underlies this thread is interesting but not timely. Thursday's budget is likely to change voters' perception of Rishi.

    On the upside?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145

    Heathener said:



    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    You're declaring Starmer a "dud" Stuart based on punters, not on opinion polling. Starmer's Labour have a c. 20% lead in the polls, and that's during Rishi's honeymoon.
    When people write that "Starmer is a dud" I try to think of the last time Labour had a dull, managerial leader and Clement Attlee springs to mind. The difference is Attlee had some heavyweights in his Cabinet - Starmer does not yet appear to.
    To be fair to the shadow cabinet, many of Attlee's colleagues got to be in Government for five years *before* Labour won the 1945 election. He was, to a great extent, in charge of domestic matters whilst Churchill ran the war. In contrast, Rachel Reeves et al have been in impotent opposition for over twelve years, and almost entirely overshadowed by an endless succession of disasters and Tory debacles. I'm concerned that they may simply end up being a less incompetent management for the same knackered old system, but until they get their hands on the levers of power we can't know this.
  • rcs1000 said:

    @SeaShantyIrish2 -

    Trump and Trumpistas and election denialism has been absolute poison in 2022.

    The US economy is not in great shape. Mortgage rates are rising. Gas bills are rising. House prices are falling. Layoffs are beginning.

    Now, you can argue about how much these things are the fault of Joe Biden and the Democrats. But voters usually don't care about ultimate causes.

    Add to this the concerns about crime, and a President that is visibly... ageing.

    Despite all this, and the fact that first midterms are usually a disaster for the governing party...

    It is not inconceivable that the Dems will have gained a seat in the Senate and are just a single special election away from control of the House.

    And all because of DJT.

    I suspect too that the voters are different this year, more younger people, more women maybe more minorities.
    The issues are also different, with the SC decision on Roe v Wade and with Trump's election deniers running for office.
    That is the point. It is not just Trump and election denialism that has spoiled the well for Republicans, but also, and perhaps more so, the mainstream (and evangelical) GOP cause of abortion restrictions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583
    It's really remarkable how Biden's administration somehow keeps outperforming expectations (although they are invariably quite low). It should have been actually impossible to make gains in the Senate in these circumstances.

    Equally, we should remember most of it is due to the suicidal tendencies of the Republicans. Election denial. The worship of a failed comedian. Naked criminality which is slowly working its way through the courts. The rigging of the Supreme Court with a load of dud but politically acceptable judges who keep finding based on their prejudices rather than on the laws.

    Not that the implosion of one of America's two major parties is necessarily a good thing of course. As we saw in 1932 or 1861. However, it is extraordinary to watch.

    And the betting opportunities! Anyone who bet on a Dem majority in the Senate must have cleaned up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,435
    edited November 13
    A Labour MP who announced a month ago that she was quitting to work for the health service is now refusing to stand down while she tries to secure a peerage.

    Rosie Cooper, 72, said on September 20 that she was stepping down as the member for West Lancashire to become chairwoman of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.

    But she is now in a stand-off with Labour after she presented a list of demands she wants met before she names the date of her exit. It is understood to have angered senior party figures and thrown the party’s by-election plans into disarray.

    In anticipation of the poll in the seat, which Labour has held since 1992, the party had moved staff from elsewhere in the north of England and the Midlands to Lancashire to help with campaigning. It has also selected Ashley Dalton, a part-time charity worker, as its candidate.

    Cooper’s demands have included seeking guarantees around her police protection, which she receives as a result of a far-right extremist being jailed over a plot to murder her in 2019.

    These concerns were considered to be legitimate and have been acted on by Labour, with the parliamentary authorities also agreeing to a new security package to ensure that Cooper will continue to receive protection for several years after she stands down as an MP.

    But in recent weeks, multiple sources say that Cooper has tabled fresh demands for the party to award her a peerage.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-rosie-cooper-hangs-on-to-seek-peerage-wds3bbj58
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    ..

    The funny thing is they look as though they're laughing at her, not with her.
    The other funny thing is that, although you can buy the t-shirts now, they clearly hadn't made them at the time of the photoshoot as the logo is too straight and obviously photoshopped onto a pre-taken photo (hopefully with permission!)
  • Sandpit said:

    Good morning cricket fans!

    England win the toss, and will field. No sign of rain so far, but it’s coming.

    PBers following the cricket will know this already. What might draw others in is the information that this is the T20 World Cup Final between England and Pakistan, due to start in 10 minutes or so.
  • A Labour MP who announced a month ago that she was quitting to work for the health service is now refusing to stand down while she tries to secure a peerage.

    Rosie Cooper, 72, said on September 20 that she was stepping down as the member for West Lancashire to become chairwoman of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.

    But she is now in a stand-off with Labour after she presented a list of demands she wants met before she names the date of her exit. It is understood to have angered senior party figures and thrown the party’s by-election plans into disarray.

    In anticipation of the poll in the seat, which Labour has held since 1992, the party had moved staff from elsewhere in the north of England and the Midlands to Lancashire to help with campaigning. It has also selected Ashley Dalton, a part-time charity worker, as its candidate.

    Cooper’s demands have included seeking guarantees around her police protection, which she receives as a result of a far-right extremist being jailed over a plot to murder her in 2019.

    These concerns were considered to be legitimate and have been acted on by Labour, with the parliamentary authorities also agreeing to a new security package to ensure that Cooper will continue to receive protection for several years after she stands down as an MP.

    But in recent weeks, multiple sources say that Cooper has tabled fresh demands for the party to award her a peerage.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-rosie-cooper-hangs-on-to-seek-peerage-wds3bbj58

    There are all the same
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583

    A Labour MP who announced a month ago that she was quitting to work for the health service is now refusing to stand down while she tries to secure a peerage.

    Rosie Cooper, 72, said on September 20 that she was stepping down as the member for West Lancashire to become chairwoman of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.

    But she is now in a stand-off with Labour after she presented a list of demands she wants met before she names the date of her exit. It is understood to have angered senior party figures and thrown the party’s by-election plans into disarray.

    In anticipation of the poll in the seat, which Labour has held since 1992, the party had moved staff from elsewhere in the north of England and the Midlands to Lancashire to help with campaigning. It has also selected Ashley Dalton, a part-time charity worker, as its candidate.

    Cooper’s demands have included seeking guarantees around her police protection, which she receives as a result of a far-right extremist being jailed over a plot to murder her in 2019.

    These concerns were considered to be legitimate and have been acted on by Labour, with the parliamentary authorities also agreeing to a new security package to ensure that Cooper will continue to receive protection for several years after she stands down as an MP.

    But in recent weeks, multiple sources say that Cooper has tabled fresh demands for the party to award her a peerage.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-rosie-cooper-hangs-on-to-seek-peerage-wds3bbj58

    There are all the same
    If anyone still thinks we should keep the House of Lords after the last 10 years, can you please drop me a VM?

    I just want to know what you're smoking, where I can get some and how much it will cost.
  • ydoethur said:

    A Labour MP who announced a month ago that she was quitting to work for the health service is now refusing to stand down while she tries to secure a peerage.

    Rosie Cooper, 72, said on September 20 that she was stepping down as the member for West Lancashire to become chairwoman of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.

    But she is now in a stand-off with Labour after she presented a list of demands she wants met before she names the date of her exit. It is understood to have angered senior party figures and thrown the party’s by-election plans into disarray.

    In anticipation of the poll in the seat, which Labour has held since 1992, the party had moved staff from elsewhere in the north of England and the Midlands to Lancashire to help with campaigning. It has also selected Ashley Dalton, a part-time charity worker, as its candidate.

    Cooper’s demands have included seeking guarantees around her police protection, which she receives as a result of a far-right extremist being jailed over a plot to murder her in 2019.

    These concerns were considered to be legitimate and have been acted on by Labour, with the parliamentary authorities also agreeing to a new security package to ensure that Cooper will continue to receive protection for several years after she stands down as an MP.

    But in recent weeks, multiple sources say that Cooper has tabled fresh demands for the party to award her a peerage.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-rosie-cooper-hangs-on-to-seek-peerage-wds3bbj58

    There are all the same
    If anyone still thinks we should keep the House of Lords after the last 10 years, can you please drop me a VM?

    I just want to know what you're smoking, where I can get some and how much it will cost.
    It needs to be abolished and replaced with an elected assembly
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583
    Andy_JS said:
    Not tempted to make a prediction unless I know more about the weather.

    So sorry @Northern_Al but you're on your own.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    edited November 13
    Who is the daftie doing the welcome?

    Still haven't quite got used to GSTK.
  • ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Not tempted to make a prediction unless I know more about the weather.

    So sorry @Northern_Al but you're on your own.
    I'm hoping DavidL calls it for a Pakistan then I'm going all in on England.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583

    ydoethur said:

    A Labour MP who announced a month ago that she was quitting to work for the health service is now refusing to stand down while she tries to secure a peerage.

    Rosie Cooper, 72, said on September 20 that she was stepping down as the member for West Lancashire to become chairwoman of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.

    But she is now in a stand-off with Labour after she presented a list of demands she wants met before she names the date of her exit. It is understood to have angered senior party figures and thrown the party’s by-election plans into disarray.

    In anticipation of the poll in the seat, which Labour has held since 1992, the party had moved staff from elsewhere in the north of England and the Midlands to Lancashire to help with campaigning. It has also selected Ashley Dalton, a part-time charity worker, as its candidate.

    Cooper’s demands have included seeking guarantees around her police protection, which she receives as a result of a far-right extremist being jailed over a plot to murder her in 2019.

    These concerns were considered to be legitimate and have been acted on by Labour, with the parliamentary authorities also agreeing to a new security package to ensure that Cooper will continue to receive protection for several years after she stands down as an MP.

    But in recent weeks, multiple sources say that Cooper has tabled fresh demands for the party to award her a peerage.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-rosie-cooper-hangs-on-to-seek-peerage-wds3bbj58

    There are all the same
    If anyone still thinks we should keep the House of Lords after the last 10 years, can you please drop me a VM?

    I just want to know what you're smoking, where I can get some and how much it will cost.
    It needs to be abolished and replaced with an elected assembly
    There might be a case if we keep an upper house for allowing some senior politicians - Cabinet Ministers, Mayors, FMs etc - to nominate people to speak on their behalf or at least on behalf of their governments/departments. Or for giving the Lord Chief Justice speaking and voting rights.

    But otherwise, yes, it should be elected.

    Even the old Lords before Blair's reforms was better than this. At least there was a random element to selection.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145

    ydoethur said:

    A Labour MP who announced a month ago that she was quitting to work for the health service is now refusing to stand down while she tries to secure a peerage.

    Rosie Cooper, 72, said on September 20 that she was stepping down as the member for West Lancashire to become chairwoman of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.

    But she is now in a stand-off with Labour after she presented a list of demands she wants met before she names the date of her exit. It is understood to have angered senior party figures and thrown the party’s by-election plans into disarray.

    In anticipation of the poll in the seat, which Labour has held since 1992, the party had moved staff from elsewhere in the north of England and the Midlands to Lancashire to help with campaigning. It has also selected Ashley Dalton, a part-time charity worker, as its candidate.

    Cooper’s demands have included seeking guarantees around her police protection, which she receives as a result of a far-right extremist being jailed over a plot to murder her in 2019.

    These concerns were considered to be legitimate and have been acted on by Labour, with the parliamentary authorities also agreeing to a new security package to ensure that Cooper will continue to receive protection for several years after she stands down as an MP.

    But in recent weeks, multiple sources say that Cooper has tabled fresh demands for the party to award her a peerage.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-rosie-cooper-hangs-on-to-seek-peerage-wds3bbj58

    There are all the same
    If anyone still thinks we should keep the House of Lords after the last 10 years, can you please drop me a VM?

    I just want to know what you're smoking, where I can get some and how much it will cost.
    It needs to be abolished and replaced with an elected assembly
    Like that will help.

    Use sortition. Seriously. Like jury service. We've already got 650 MPs; quite why we'd want another 200, 300, 400 more (just with an alternative title to disguise the fact) is quite beyond me.

    Force the venal fucks to get their nonsense past a screening body of ordinary proles, equipped with proper veto powers. That'll be fun for them.
  • ydoethur said:

    It's really remarkable how Biden's administration somehow keeps outperforming expectations (although they are invariably quite low). It should have been actually impossible to make gains in the Senate in these circumstances.

    Equally, we should remember most of it is due to the suicidal tendencies of the Republicans. Election denial. The worship of a failed comedian. Naked criminality which is slowly working its way through the courts. The rigging of the Supreme Court with a load of dud but politically acceptable judges who keep finding based on their prejudices rather than on the laws.

    Not that the implosion of one of America's two major parties is necessarily a good thing of course. As we saw in 1932 or 1861. However, it is extraordinary to watch.

    And the betting opportunities! Anyone who bet on a Dem majority in the Senate must have cleaned up.

    No, no, no. See Chris's post earlier. The trouble is that not all Democrat Senators are counted for betting purposes. You would need to read the rules of each bookmaker but Betfair in particular does not count independents who caucus with the Democrats, like Bernie Sanders. Oh, and even counting those, any majority will depend on a run-off election in Georgia.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    People management skills at Twitter a little lacking

    https://twitter.com/phocks/status/1591549286999023616
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Not tempted to make a prediction unless I know more about the weather.

    So sorry @Northern_Al but you're on your own.
    I'm hoping DavidL calls it for a Pakistan then I'm going all in on England.
    It depends on which Pakistan turn up.

    If it's the side that beat New Zealand this is going to be the most one sided thrashing since the Chelsea Flower arrangers beat Harrow by twelve sore bottoms to one.

    If it's the Pakistan side that played Zimbabwe...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Not tempted to make a prediction unless I know more about the weather.

    So sorry @Northern_Al but you're on your own.
    A huge amount turns on the power play and whether these incredible batsman at the top of the Pakistan order can get going. If England can get wickets in the power play they might win easily but if not...it will be exciting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583

    ydoethur said:

    It's really remarkable how Biden's administration somehow keeps outperforming expectations (although they are invariably quite low). It should have been actually impossible to make gains in the Senate in these circumstances.

    Equally, we should remember most of it is due to the suicidal tendencies of the Republicans. Election denial. The worship of a failed comedian. Naked criminality which is slowly working its way through the courts. The rigging of the Supreme Court with a load of dud but politically acceptable judges who keep finding based on their prejudices rather than on the laws.

    Not that the implosion of one of America's two major parties is necessarily a good thing of course. As we saw in 1932 or 1861. However, it is extraordinary to watch.

    And the betting opportunities! Anyone who bet on a Dem majority in the Senate must have cleaned up.

    No, no, no. See Chris's post earlier. The trouble is that not all Democrat Senators are counted for betting purposes. You would need to read the rules of each bookmaker but Betfair in particular does not count independents who caucus with the Democrats, like Bernie Sanders. Oh, and even counting those, any majority will depend on a run-off election in Georgia.
    So basically, come rain shine or the Fascists taking a shellacking, bookies are still lying cheating bastards?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    A Labour MP who announced a month ago that she was quitting to work for the health service is now refusing to stand down while she tries to secure a peerage.

    Rosie Cooper, 72, said on September 20 that she was stepping down as the member for West Lancashire to become chairwoman of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.

    But she is now in a stand-off with Labour after she presented a list of demands she wants met before she names the date of her exit. It is understood to have angered senior party figures and thrown the party’s by-election plans into disarray.

    In anticipation of the poll in the seat, which Labour has held since 1992, the party had moved staff from elsewhere in the north of England and the Midlands to Lancashire to help with campaigning. It has also selected Ashley Dalton, a part-time charity worker, as its candidate.

    Cooper’s demands have included seeking guarantees around her police protection, which she receives as a result of a far-right extremist being jailed over a plot to murder her in 2019.

    These concerns were considered to be legitimate and have been acted on by Labour, with the parliamentary authorities also agreeing to a new security package to ensure that Cooper will continue to receive protection for several years after she stands down as an MP.

    But in recent weeks, multiple sources say that Cooper has tabled fresh demands for the party to award her a peerage.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-rosie-cooper-hangs-on-to-seek-peerage-wds3bbj58

    There are all the same
    If anyone still thinks we should keep the House of Lords after the last 10 years, can you please drop me a VM?

    I just want to know what you're smoking, where I can get some and how much it will cost.
    It needs to be abolished and replaced with an elected assembly
    Like that will help.

    Use sortition. Seriously. Like jury service. We've already got 650 MPs; quite why we'd want another 200, 300, 400 more (just with an alternative title to disguise the fact) is quite beyond me.

    Force the venal fucks to get their nonsense past a screening body of ordinary proles, equipped with proper veto powers. That'll be fun for them.
    500 men accidentally chosen from among the unemployed?

    (As Lloyd George put it!)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    Wish Wood was playing.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    Re header: on the contrary, a condom with a hole at both ends has many uses, including repairing a leaky garden hose and opening a stubborn jam jar.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583
    DavidL said:

    Wish Wood was playing.

    I wish England could field!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,435
    edited November 13
    @ydoethur

    You must be shocked by this rare screw up by the DfE.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583

    @ydoethur

    You must be shocked by this rare screw up by the DfE.


    I am shocked.

    Shocked that they've only found one major breach.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Wish Wood was playing.

    I wish England could field!
    That was a really big chance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,583
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Wish Wood was playing.

    I wish England could field!
    That was a really big chance.
    TBF Jordan must be a bit nervous and he probably hasn't fully got his eye in yet.

    But you would have expected a hit, and that's the kind of thing that can turn matches.
  • PBers.

    I need your help, an Australian friend and sent me this message and I need your help in coming up with the perfect retort.

    Aussie friend: If the final is washed out, England will have two World Cup titles without winning either of them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729

    rcs1000 said:

    @SeaShantyIrish2 -

    Trump and Trumpistas and election denialism has been absolute poison in 2022.

    The US economy is not in great shape. Mortgage rates are rising. Gas bills are rising. House prices are falling. Layoffs are beginning.

    Now, you can argue about how much these things are the fault of Joe Biden and the Democrats. But voters usually don't care about ultimate causes.

    Add to this the concerns about crime, and a President that is visibly... ageing.

    Despite all this, and the fact that first midterms are usually a disaster for the governing party...

    It is not inconceivable that the Dems will have gained a seat in the Senate and are just a single special election away from control of the House.

    And all because of DJT.

    I suspect too that the voters are different this year, more younger people, more women maybe more minorities.
    The issues are also different, with the SC decision on Roe v Wade and with Trump's election deniers running for office.
    That is the point. It is not just Trump and election denialism that has spoiled the well for Republicans, but also, and perhaps more so, the mainstream (and evangelical) GOP cause of abortion restrictions.
    Yes - the exit polls for the still outstanding Arizona governor election show clearly that female voters have put Hobbs in the race. Indeed with Apache county having the largest proportion of votes outstanding and Hobbs's decent lead there already, Hobbs is the favourite and the 1.31 on BFE looks value?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,412

    Sunak to freeze income tax thresholds until 2028.

    Cheers Dave! That commitment to a Brexit referendum was a really good idea.

    You don’t even live here! You pay tax in Sweden.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,471
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Not tempted to make a prediction unless I know more about the weather.

    So sorry @Northern_Al but you're on your own.
    Thanks. Probably means the weather stays fine, if you have doubts.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219

    Heathener said:

    Chris said:

    Who’d’ve thunk that a pro-Brexit Red Tory would struggle to beat this shower of clowns, charlatans and criminals?

    NOM 2.3
    Lab Maj 2.4
    Con Maj 5.7

    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    Could be in the same way that the betting markets a week ago proved that Biden was a dud!
    Yep. Joe Biden is constantly underestimated. So is Keir Starmer.

    Both likely to be in power by 2025.
    Good morning

    Biden's age is catching him up and he was so embarrassing at COP27 yesterday when be confused the hosts with Colombia

    I very much doubt by 24 he will be seen as the future of the US but at least the good news is the Trump era looks over

    As far as Starmer is concerned he has not yet sealed the deal and while firm favourite for 24 two years is a long time in politics

    The commentariate were convinced the Republicans would have a successful mid term and we can see how that has worked out

    - ”… he has not yet sealed the deal and while firm favourite…”

    But he’s not firm favourite. He’s still a very chunky 4/9. Betting history abounds with 4/9 losers.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219
    Next PM: Starmer 4/9

    Next FM: Sarwar 16/1

    If Starmer is a dud, Sarwar is a calamity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    ping said:

    Excuse my early off-topic, but this is really atrocious journalism from the BBC;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct4l3c

    Billed as an impartial female muslim BBC journalist “on a mission to discover what women in Doha have to say about their lives”

    50 minutes long - and only a few casual mentions of “maids” or “housekeepers” - as evidence of how women’s lives aren’t domestic drudgery?!!!

    The documentary debates if women in Qatar are “free” and concludes with a wealthy, well educated Qatari woman philosophically pondering what “freedom” really means.

    A majority of women in Qatar are domestic workers. They outnumber female Qatari passport holders.

    They are miserable. They are not remotely free. The conditions are terrible and they’re, routinely abused by their male and female employers.

    They’re hard to speak to, not on twitter, often don’t speak English and are usually terrified of the consequences of speaking out. A real journalist would make the effort to speak to some of them. Start by asking Amnesty international for some leads, perhaps?

    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2020/10/qatar-domestic-worker-abuse-and-exploitation-report/

    This the most basic journalistic fail. The average woman in Qatar is a quasi-slave.

    Like reporting on the debate about freedom in 18th century America, blind to the slavery all around.

    Those black men? We ignore them. Oh and the women? Pah!

    Awful, awful “journalism” from the BBC.

    Do you think any of these women in domestic servitude in Qatar, would want to talk to a Western journalist?

    Yes, Qatar is decades behind *other countries in the Gulf* when it comes to employment law. Employees, even well-qualified Western staff working for large companies, are considered the property of their employer. Even Saudi Arabia is better than Qatar.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,527
    edited November 13
    Not a big follower of I’m a celebrity. But on the back LD this, I am not sure the government will want to talk about their covid record all that much at the next General Election. Not a sure fire vote winner.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,412

    PBers.

    I need your help, an Australian friend and sent me this message and I need your help in coming up with the perfect retort.

    Aussie friend: If the final is washed out, England will have two World Cup titles without winning either of them.

    Ask him if he plans to visit Italy to see how rugby is played.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Nevada is currently +6.5k for Masto. Still a bunch more to count. When it ends it looks like it will be approx 10k to Masto.

    I wonder if anyone made an early prediction about such things....?

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4215729#Comment_4215729
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,219

    Heathener said:



    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    You're declaring Starmer a "dud" Stuart based on punters, not on opinion polling. Starmer's Labour have a c. 20% lead in the polls, and that's during Rishi's honeymoon.
    When people write that "Starmer is a dud" I try to think of the last time Labour had a dull, managerial leader and Clement Attlee springs to mind. The difference is Attlee had some heavyweights in his Cabinet - Starmer does not yet appear to.
    When people write that “Starmer is a dud”, it is not his dull managerialism that they are referring to. Some dull managerial types make excellent politicians.

    No, it is his tone-deafness and horrifying poor judgment. Brexit, just to take one example, is a pile of putrefying shit and vomit, and Starmer has smeared himself and his party in the concoction.

    Both Sunak and Starmer have been in the Commons five minutes, and boy does that inexperience show.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    What an over from Curran.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    A few more overs that that from Curran, would be good!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,549
    Bizarely in Colorado 3 the Democrat governor Polis is ahead of the Rep but downballot the hideous Boebert leads Frisch . How you can split ticket between the two given they’re at polar opposites is hard to fathom .

    At the moment barring something outlandish happening the GOP will take the House but it will be a razor thin majority . Given the factions within the GOP house it’s hard to see how it won’t end up a clusterfxck.

    On one hand you have the insane Freedom Caucus vs new house members from blue states .

    The Dems in 2020 had 222 to 213 , it’s unlikely the GOP will get that . The issue of the debt ceiling looms and the Dems should use the lame duck session to try to push through raising that upto the next Presidential election .

    This would be controversial but they can surely make the argument that the extreme wing of GOP in the House shouldn’t be allowed to drive the US economy off a cliff .
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,527

    PBers.

    I need your help, an Australian friend and sent me this message and I need your help in coming up with the perfect retort.

    Aussie friend: If the final is washed out, England will have two World Cup titles without winning either of them.

    My reflection is that the trick here is to pause, let England win the final and then reply.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,838
    No surprise that PB's pub bore posts moronic shit like this:

    "About two centuries before the British took India, the racist supremacist Muslim Mughals took India, and built pyramids out of skulls. The Mughals were far far worse than the British. By some estimates they killed 40-80 million Indians. Others go higher"

    but slightly surprised that only Sunil objected


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,412
    Jonathan said:

    Not a big follower of I’m a celebrity. But on the back LD this, I am not sure the government will want to talk about their covid record all that much at the next General Election.

    I’m not sure any government will. Every government made mistakes, because it was a really difficult challenge. Did you ever conceive in your life that lockdown would be a thing? And how do you balance telling people to stay home with being able to earn a living? How do you best protect the vulnerable? Do you try to eliminate the virus (see NZ), but what happens if other countries don’t (see also NZ).
    Certainly in the U.K. the devolved governments set their stall on being more restricted for longer, but both made errors. Sturgeons government suffered the same care home issues as Johnson’s. Drakeford oversaw supermarkets fencing off sections to avoid being unfair to smaller retailers, and closing a football ground because the toilets were in Wales.
    We bemoan the wasted money on PPE and track and trace, yet after the first crisis the NHS had enough PPE and if you ever used a ‘free’ test kit, ask where the bill for that went.

    We know how harsh hindsight can, and probably will be. When the vaccines were confirmed as working we should have locked down hard until the over 60’s had had their shots. It would likely have saved 10s of thousands. For me that was the biggest error. Others will disagree, but fair criticism should levelled based on what was known at the time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,093
    Heathener said:

    Woke up to the news about the Democrats keeping control of the Senate, and most likely going on to win it outright 51-49.

    It's a stunning result in the context.

    Betting on a largely unknown Ron de Santis in 2024 against the proven winner Joe Biden is, in my opinion, foolish unless the odds are generous. I would want 10-1 before going in.

    I really would go in at 10! - but you exaggerate to make a point I agree with. RDS is poor value at current odds.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,891
    edited November 13

    Heathener said:



    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    You're declaring Starmer a "dud" Stuart based on punters, not on opinion polling. Starmer's Labour have a c. 20% lead in the polls, and that's during Rishi's honeymoon.
    When people write that "Starmer is a dud" I try to think of the last time Labour had a dull, managerial leader and Clement Attlee springs to mind. The difference is Attlee had some heavyweights in his Cabinet - Starmer does not yet appear to.
    When people write that “Starmer is a dud”, it is not his dull managerialism that they are referring to. Some dull managerial types make excellent politicians.

    No, it is his tone-deafness and horrifying poor judgment. Brexit, just to take one example, is a pile of putrefying shit and vomit, and Starmer has smeared himself and his party in the concoction.

    Both Sunak and Starmer have been in the Commons five minutes, and boy does that inexperience show.
    That won't go down well in Scotland, for sure. 75% agin Brexit, roughly.

    I remember the local town centre in the runup to the first GE after the Brexit referendum.

    Slabber canvasser: Good morning, will you vote for us?
    Me: No. Bunch of bloody Brexiters.
    Slabber (aggrieved, pointing at Scotories down the precinct): It's that lot, not us!
    Me: Well, you've got a Brexiter leader in the form of Mr Corbyn!

    That issue hasn't been resolved.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    Great catch from Stokes! 45/2
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,408
    kamski said:

    PB's pub bore

    You are going to have to be more specific.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,450
    nico679 said:

    Bizarely in Colorado 3 the Democrat governor Polis is ahead of the Rep but downballot the hideous Boebert leads Frisch . How you can split ticket between the two given they’re at polar opposites is hard to fathom .

    At the moment barring something outlandish happening the GOP will take the House but it will be a razor thin majority . Given the factions within the GOP house it’s hard to see how it won’t end up a clusterfxck.

    On one hand you have the insane Freedom Caucus vs new house members from blue states .

    The Dems in 2020 had 222 to 213 , it’s unlikely the GOP will get that . The issue of the debt ceiling looms and the Dems should use the lame duck session to try to push through raising that upto the next Presidential election .

    This would be controversial but they can surely make the argument that the extreme wing of GOP in the House shouldn’t be allowed to drive the US economy off a cliff .

    Polis is an incumbent and very popular. Also he's well-known as a libertarian; If you're libertarian, I guess it's not too weird to back the candidate from the Freedom Caucus and also the one who used to be in the Liberty Caucus.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    Think Jordan is a weak link in England's bowling these days. Great career but he is done.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,930
    ping said:

    Excuse my early off-topic, but this is really atrocious journalism from the BBC;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct4l3c

    Billed as an impartial female muslim BBC journalist “on a mission to discover what women in Doha have to say about their lives”

    50 minutes long - and only a few casual mentions of “maids” or “housekeepers” - as evidence of how women’s lives aren’t domestic drudgery?!!!

    The documentary debates if women in Qatar are “free” and concludes with a wealthy, well educated Qatari woman philosophically pondering what “freedom” really means.

    A majority of women in Qatar are domestic workers. They outnumber female Qatari passport holders.

    They are miserable. They are not remotely free. The conditions are terrible and they’re, routinely abused by their male and female employers.

    They’re hard to speak to, not on twitter, often don’t speak English and are usually terrified of the consequences of speaking out. A real journalist would make the effort to speak to some of them. Start by asking Amnesty international for some leads, perhaps?

    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2020/10/qatar-domestic-worker-abuse-and-exploitation-report/

    This the most basic journalistic fail. The average woman in Qatar is a quasi-slave.

    Like reporting on the debate about freedom in 18th century America, blind to the slavery all around.

    Those black men? We ignore them. Oh and the women? Pah!

    Awful, awful “journalism” from the BBC.

    A lot of journalism is like this these days.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    I know it’s a low-scoring ground, because of the physical size of the place, but 68/2 after 10 overs does seem a little low on runs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,272
    edited November 13

    Heathener said:



    Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.

    You're declaring Starmer a "dud" Stuart based on punters, not on opinion polling. Starmer's Labour have a c. 20% lead in the polls, and that's during Rishi's honeymoon.
    When people write that "Starmer is a dud" I try to think of the last time Labour had a dull, managerial leader and Clement Attlee springs to mind. The difference is Attlee had some heavyweights in his Cabinet - Starmer does not yet appear to.
    Attlee also seemed to be able to accommodate the more radical left part of his party, Starmer not so much. Stomping on the left until it goes green may have benefits in terms of impressing Tory voters but there will be other consequences.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    Sandpit said:

    I know it’s a low-scoring ground, because of the physical size of the place, but 68/2 after 10 overs does seem a little low on runs.

    Pakistan will need to average 10 an over from here.
  • Sandpit said:

    I know it’s a low-scoring ground, because of the physical size of the place, but 68/2 after 10 overs does seem a little low on runs.

    I'll be pissed off if we haven't got three boundaries by the end of the second over, let alone the tenth
  • A lesson from the US for Culture Warriors on left and right over here is that you should choose your battles carefully. Just because voters might agree with you on some things doesn’t mean they’ll give you a blank cheque to be full-on loon. And they always prioritise.
  • Just to be on the safe side, can DavidL be banned until the game is over?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    The analysis that underlies this thread is interesting but not timely. Thursday's budget is likely to change voters' perception of Rishi.

    They're going to hate him.

    Even though the MPs picked him to reverse May's actions the ideological crowd will object, Labour will win people over by saying its punishing ordinary people whether or not they have any counter ideas (and the Tory brand is trashed enough that'll work), and most or the rest will be too focused on the cost of living to care whether or not Rishi can stabilise the finances.
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