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Why Boris might not be the answer for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Why Boris might not be the answer for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
On an MRP of our 'who would be the best PM' question, Sunak comes ahead in far more seats than Johnson (but both trail Starmer)Starmer v SunakStarmer: 389 seatsSunak: 127Not sure: 116Starmer v JohnsonStarmer: 594Johnson: 38Not sure: 0https://t.co/ONLsGY8WqO pic.twitter.com/iwVMzKhVJc
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What would be even more interesting is to see whether the same conclusion holds if we unwind the Labour lead a bit. It's highly unlikely Labour will be riding this high in the polls come the next GE, so if we take, say, 10% off their current polling lead, is the conclusion still valid?
I suspect it is...
“In other words, Boris Johnson was more well-placed to retain recent Red Wall gains, but Rishi Sunak better shores up the weakening Tory heartland.”
By picking Sunak the Tories have already conceded the next GE. Their strategy is simply to avoid obliteration. It might work.
Brexit and Johnson have crippled the Conservative brand: they are not ‘Conservatives’, they are destructive revolutionaries.
We are not looking at a Canada Scenario any more, but rather a Liberal Party or Scottish Labour scenario. Once hegemonic beast is permanently incapacitated by self-inflicted idiocy.
Today enough votes were counted for AP & CNN to call SOS races in Arizona and Nevada; in both states MAGA-maniacs bit the Big Weenie of Self-Defeat in a free and fair election.
In Washington State, voters elected a Democrat as Secretary of State for first time since 1960.
For over forty years, as the Evergreen State became more and more Democratic, voters persisted in electing Republicans as SOS, in the belief (about 90% correct) that the GOPers they elected were good stewards for the (small d) democratic election process.
The last of the breed, Republican Secretary of State Kim Wyman, former Thurston County Auditor and elections professional, was naturally attacked by Trump and his fellow Putinists for her "treason" to 45 in 2020. She ended up resigning to accept appointment by President Biden to federal election security position. Democratic Governor Jay Inslee then appointed Democratic state senator Steve Hobbs as SOS pending 2022 elections.
Hobbs thus ran in 2022 primary, and was the top vote-getter, thus advanced to general along with number two Julie Anderson, Pierce County Auditor and sometimes Democrat who ran as nonpartisan, campaigning as election professional against political appointee.
Republicans clearly decided that without Wyman they had zero chance of winning Secretary of State's office directly. So they ran four candidates to ensure they split the Republican vote enough for Nonpartisan Anderson to make the Top Two against Democratic Hobbs.
Personally was convinced until Election Night that Anderson would pull just enough votes to win, from Democrats who have traditionally voted for a decent Republican for this office - in part to keep an eye on the Democrats running everything else at state level.
BUT turns out that Trump & SCOTUS kept that from happening.
Where currently situation is as follows:
estimated 80% of votes counted, for first preferences:
Kelly Tshibaka Rep 94,138 44.2%
Lisa Murkowski* Rep 91,205 42.8%
Pat Chesbro Dem 20,265 9.5%
Buzz Kelley Rep 6,244 2.9%
Total Write-Ins 1,056 0.5%
Total reported 212,908
Assuming that remaining votes do not alter above percentages, at least not too much, then next rounds of counting could look something like this:
> writeins eliminated, with some but not many with 2nd-pref transfers to ones on ballot
> Buzz Kelley eliminated, with his vote mostly splitting between Tshibaka and Murkowski
> Pat Chesbro eliminated with her vote breaking heavily for Murkowski, thus reelecting her
Hard to see this scenario NOT playing out UNLESS the remaining 20% of votes to be counted (initially for 1st-prefs) are substantially more favorable to Tshibaka than the already-counted 80%.
Some on both sides, but with a differential impact slightly favorable to Warnock, on theory that suburban voters will tend to turn out anyway, because that's what they tend to do, more so than urban or rural voters of all hues & cries?
Amazing how in recent years, State of Georgia has morphed into a Laboratory of Democracy.
Trump and Trumpistas and election denialism has been absolute poison in 2022.
The US economy is not in great shape. Mortgage rates are rising. Gas bills are rising. House prices are falling. Layoffs are beginning.
Now, you can argue about how much these things are the fault of Joe Biden and the Democrats. But voters usually don't care about ultimate causes.
Add to this the concerns about crime, and a President that is visibly... ageing.
Despite all this, and the fact that first midterms are usually a disaster for the governing party...
It is not inconceivable that the Dems will have gained a seat in the Senate and are just a single special election away from control of the House.
And all because of DJT.
Both are weighing down their parties. Soon the revolutionaries will be lynched by Republican and Tory counter-revolutionaries.
It's a stunning result in the context.
Betting on a largely unknown Ron de Santis in 2024 against the proven winner Joe Biden is, in my opinion, foolish unless the odds are generous. I would want 10-1 before going in.
Cheers Dave! That commitment to a Brexit referendum was a really good idea.
NOM 2.3
Lab Maj 2.4
Con Maj 5.7
Labour ought to be clear FAV in this market by now. Starmer is a dud.
F1: the sprint bullshit remains a stupid format, despite the commentators going ga-ga for an exciting race (with regulations that improve overtaking on a circuit that was already the best on the calendar, and multiple cars out of position due to qualifying rain).
However, it is useful for insight into how the race might pan out.
May offer a tip this morning or afternoon (I'm out later this morning), but no blogging. I know, you're all very sad about that.
The Siege of Crimea has begun.
I've laid out the logistics of the Kherson siege previously, plus the water implications for Crimea if Kherson's right bank fell.
Now it is time for a Crimean siege logistical 🧵
1/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1591612965316612097
Lab/Con in England ought to be a punters’ slam-dunk. That it’s not is a dreadful verdict on the useless Labour front bench. A pitiful bunch of third-raters, starting at the top.
The Tories were not the only party crippled by Brexit.
https://ednh.news/tropical-fish-swim-into-europes-waters-as-common-species-head-north/
Both likely to be in power by 2025.
As the betting markets have shown in recent years, there is a time lag and a tendency to bet on the past, not on the present nor likely future. Much of the liquidity is evidently made up of people who don't study the data properly and who don't know what they're doing.
Pb.com is above that and better. You should be too. Starmer may not excite you, nor does Joe Biden. Neither are 'duds'.
England win the toss, and will field. No sign of rain so far, but it’s coming.
I demand that from now on their full name is "Psychic Octopus Trafalgar."
Best for Dems 218 - 217
Don't think anything else is realistic now.
219 Rep - 216 Dem looks most likely, but it could be a one seat majority and go all hanging-chad again.
Skin of the teeth stuff.
Betfair prices for the number of Democrat Senate seats are perhaps a more obvious clue something is amiss, with four numbers from 48, 49, 50 and 51 in play, although as I type, prices are changing so it looks like someone else has just noticed there is something funny going on, and another someone has not read the rules.
The issues are also different, with the SC decision on Roe v Wade and with Trump's election deniers running for office.
Biden's age is catching him up and he was so embarrassing at COP27 yesterday when be confused the hosts with Colombia
I very much doubt by 24 he will be seen as the future of the US but at least the good news is the Trump era looks over
As far as Starmer is concerned he has not yet sealed the deal and while firm favourite for 24 two years is a long time in politics
The commentariate were convinced the Republicans would have a successful mid term and we can see how that has worked out
Equally, we should remember most of it is due to the suicidal tendencies of the Republicans. Election denial. The worship of a failed comedian. Naked criminality which is slowly working its way through the courts. The rigging of the Supreme Court with a load of dud but politically acceptable judges who keep finding based on their prejudices rather than on the laws.
Not that the implosion of one of America's two major parties is necessarily a good thing of course. As we saw in 1932 or 1861. However, it is extraordinary to watch.
And the betting opportunities! Anyone who bet on a Dem majority in the Senate must have cleaned up.
Rosie Cooper, 72, said on September 20 that she was stepping down as the member for West Lancashire to become chairwoman of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.
But she is now in a stand-off with Labour after she presented a list of demands she wants met before she names the date of her exit. It is understood to have angered senior party figures and thrown the party’s by-election plans into disarray.
In anticipation of the poll in the seat, which Labour has held since 1992, the party had moved staff from elsewhere in the north of England and the Midlands to Lancashire to help with campaigning. It has also selected Ashley Dalton, a part-time charity worker, as its candidate.
Cooper’s demands have included seeking guarantees around her police protection, which she receives as a result of a far-right extremist being jailed over a plot to murder her in 2019.
These concerns were considered to be legitimate and have been acted on by Labour, with the parliamentary authorities also agreeing to a new security package to ensure that Cooper will continue to receive protection for several years after she stands down as an MP.
But in recent weeks, multiple sources say that Cooper has tabled fresh demands for the party to award her a peerage.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-rosie-cooper-hangs-on-to-seek-peerage-wds3bbj58
I just want to know what you're smoking, where I can get some and how much it will cost.
England 1.55
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/cricket/icc-world-twenty20/pakistan-v-england-betting-31900865
So sorry @Northern_Al but you're on your own.
Still haven't quite got used to GSTK.
But otherwise, yes, it should be elected.
Even the old Lords before Blair's reforms was better than this. At least there was a random element to selection.
Use sortition. Seriously. Like jury service. We've already got 650 MPs; quite why we'd want another 200, 300, 400 more (just with an alternative title to disguise the fact) is quite beyond me.
Force the venal fucks to get their nonsense past a screening body of ordinary proles, equipped with proper veto powers. That'll be fun for them.
https://twitter.com/phocks/status/1591549286999023616
If it's the side that beat New Zealand this is going to be the most one sided thrashing since the Chelsea Flower arrangers beat Harrow by twelve sore bottoms to one.
If it's the Pakistan side that played Zimbabwe...
(As Lloyd George put it!)
You must be shocked by this rare screw up by the DfE.
Shocked that they've only found one major breach.
But you would have expected a hit, and that's the kind of thing that can turn matches.
I need your help, an Australian friend and sent me this message and I need your help in coming up with the perfect retort.
Aussie friend: If the final is washed out, England will have two World Cup titles without winning either of them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct4l3c
Billed as an impartial female muslim BBC journalist “on a mission to discover what women in Doha have to say about their lives”
50 minutes long - and only a few casual mentions of “maids” or “housekeepers” - as evidence of how women’s lives aren’t domestic drudgery?!!!
The documentary debates if women in Qatar are “free” and concludes with a wealthy, well educated Qatari woman philosophically pondering what “freedom” really means.
A majority of women in Qatar are domestic workers. They outnumber female Qatari passport holders.
They are miserable. They are not remotely free. The conditions are terrible and they’re, routinely abused by their male and female employers.
They’re hard to speak to, not on twitter, often don’t speak English and are usually terrified of the consequences of speaking out. A real journalist would make the effort to speak to some of them. Start by asking Amnesty international for some leads, perhaps?
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2020/10/qatar-domestic-worker-abuse-and-exploitation-report/
This the most basic journalistic fail. The average woman in Qatar is a quasi-slave.
Like reporting on the debate about freedom in 18th century America, blind to the slavery all around.
Those black men? We ignore them. Oh and the women? Pah!
Awful, awful “journalism” from the BBC.
But he’s not firm favourite. He’s still a very chunky 4/9. Betting history abounds with 4/9 losers.
Next FM: Sarwar 16/1
If Starmer is a dud, Sarwar is a calamity.
Yes, Qatar is decades behind *other countries in the Gulf* when it comes to employment law. Employees, even well-qualified Western staff working for large companies, are considered the property of their employer. Even Saudi Arabia is better than Qatar.
I wonder if anyone made an early prediction about such things....?
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4215729#Comment_4215729
No, it is his tone-deafness and horrifying poor judgment. Brexit, just to take one example, is a pile of putrefying shit and vomit, and Starmer has smeared himself and his party in the concoction.
Both Sunak and Starmer have been in the Commons five minutes, and boy does that inexperience show.
At the moment barring something outlandish happening the GOP will take the House but it will be a razor thin majority . Given the factions within the GOP house it’s hard to see how it won’t end up a clusterfxck.
On one hand you have the insane Freedom Caucus vs new house members from blue states .
The Dems in 2020 had 222 to 213 , it’s unlikely the GOP will get that . The issue of the debt ceiling looms and the Dems should use the lame duck session to try to push through raising that upto the next Presidential election .
This would be controversial but they can surely make the argument that the extreme wing of GOP in the House shouldn’t be allowed to drive the US economy off a cliff .
"About two centuries before the British took India, the racist supremacist Muslim Mughals took India, and built pyramids out of skulls. The Mughals were far far worse than the British. By some estimates they killed 40-80 million Indians. Others go higher"
but slightly surprised that only Sunil objected
Certainly in the U.K. the devolved governments set their stall on being more restricted for longer, but both made errors. Sturgeons government suffered the same care home issues as Johnson’s. Drakeford oversaw supermarkets fencing off sections to avoid being unfair to smaller retailers, and closing a football ground because the toilets were in Wales.
We bemoan the wasted money on PPE and track and trace, yet after the first crisis the NHS had enough PPE and if you ever used a ‘free’ test kit, ask where the bill for that went.
We know how harsh hindsight can, and probably will be. When the vaccines were confirmed as working we should have locked down hard until the over 60’s had had their shots. It would likely have saved 10s of thousands. For me that was the biggest error. Others will disagree, but fair criticism should levelled based on what was known at the time.
I remember the local town centre in the runup to the first GE after the Brexit referendum.
Slabber canvasser: Good morning, will you vote for us?
Me: No. Bunch of bloody Brexiters.
Slabber (aggrieved, pointing at Scotories down the precinct): It's that lot, not us!
Me: Well, you've got a Brexiter leader in the form of Mr Corbyn!
That issue hasn't been resolved.
Even though the MPs picked him to reverse May's actions the ideological crowd will object, Labour will win people over by saying its punishing ordinary people whether or not they have any counter ideas (and the Tory brand is trashed enough that'll work), and most or the rest will be too focused on the cost of living to care whether or not Rishi can stabilise the finances.