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Trump still rated as a 36% chance for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

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  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,094
    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Looking at the maps, he's losing control of the dam, too. A swift de-mining operation should be underway there. (It would not surprise me if UKR SF were tasked with that already.)
  • kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    "every electronic device in south east England "

    Hmmm. I think you overestimate the power of such a (non-nuclear) device.

    Also, the ruskies would have to be very, very careful that such an event does not trigger the west's nuclear warning satellites.
    Starfish Prime, which was a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon, detonated 250 miles up, demonstrated the effects of EMP. Which were a concern, but the idea that you get the "17th century" after one goes off is simply not true.

    A nuclear weapon detonated lower will not produce the effect.

    A non-nuclear weapon detonated at that altitude won't create effects that can be noticed on the ground.

    A non-nuclear EMP detonated at ground level will have a very short range - if it does anything at all.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.

    222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.

    I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?

    Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.

    A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .

    The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .

    Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
    538 says
    In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.

    In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.

    We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.

    IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be

    against them but not by much. It could be

    business as usual for Biden.
    538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes

    ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
    No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.

    Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Three 11:01 11 Nov posts. A stain on PB.

    Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
    It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
    It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
    Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.

    Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,312
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    The Ukrainians have cut the supply lines. Modern warfare requires thousands of tons of fuel and ammunition. Otherwise you just have a mob of guys who are quite badly dressed, rather than an army.

    By some accounts from the *pro-Russian* sources, the Russian army in Kherson has reached the "badly dressed mob" phase.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    Just wait for our wunderwaffe! They will turn the tide of the war. We have had them for ages but have just decided not to use them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,312

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1
    I’m mortified I didn’t take my own advice and bet on Hobbs. 5/1 was madly generous in a two horse race which all the polls said was extremely tight. And 7/1 even better, of course

    Lake fucked up by going superTrump in the last week or two. “I am Trump in a dress” etc
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1
    Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,094
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775
    edited November 2022
    IanB2 said:

    nico679 said:

    If Trump doesn’t run I’d think that would make it more likely Biden doesn’t .

    Ron DeSantis tries to put on a more respectable front but he’s an extremist and just covers it up better . Given his huge win in Florida and likely more broader appeal he would be a big problem for the Dems .

    But how much of his Florida win is due to dodgy electoral goings on, and the elderly decamping to coastal condos, rather than campaigning genius?
    Good question.

    RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote.
    Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote.
    Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).

    Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.

    Of course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    IanB2 said:

    nico679 said:

    If Trump doesn’t run I’d think that would make it more likely Biden doesn’t .

    Ron DeSantis tries to put on a more respectable front but he’s an extremist and just covers it up better . Given his huge win in Florida and likely more broader appeal he would be a big problem for the Dems .

    But how much of his Florida win is due to dodgy electoral goings on, and the elderly decamping to coastal condos, rather than campaigning genius?
    Good question.

    RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote.
    Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote.
    Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).

    Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.

    If course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
    I think people who live in Florida are generally happy with the "middle way" Ron DeSantis has taken with abortion and his anti-woke stance on transgender issues and taking on Disney. My guess is that if he runs and Trump doesn't run as an independent he will win across the US, potentially with a landslide and in places that the GOP had previously written off.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    IanB2 said:

    nico679 said:

    If Trump doesn’t run I’d think that would make it more likely Biden doesn’t .

    Ron DeSantis tries to put on a more respectable front but he’s an extremist and just covers it up better . Given his huge win in Florida and likely more broader appeal he would be a big problem for the Dems .

    But how much of his Florida win is due to dodgy electoral goings on, and the elderly decamping to coastal condos, rather than campaigning genius?
    Good question.

    RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote.
    Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote.
    Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).

    Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.

    If course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
    Florida is clearly not a swing State any longer.

    De Santis is a competent governor, who garners majority support on culture war issues, without going off the deep end chasing after Jewish space lasers and backing Putin.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
    The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Overall. Not a good election for Trafalgar "polling".
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    edited November 2022
    Sean_F said:

    kamski said:

    Sean_F said:

    In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.

    222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.

    Looking back at the 538 forecasts:

    Their Lite (polls only) model predicted an average of 229 Republican seats, popular vote lead of R+2.4%, and 75% chance of Republican majority.

    Classic (polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more) had average 232 Republican seats, vote margin R+3.8, and 82% chance of R majority.

    Deluxe (Classic + experts' ratings) average 230 R seats, popular vote R +4.0, 84% chance R majority.

    Their default model is the Deluxe, which they described before the election as "the best and most accurate", but this time the Lite model looks like ending up the most accurate in both average seats and vote margin (and will probably end up forecasting the Senate best too), so I wonder how they will play it next time. The Deluxe model has only been running since 2018, and goes slightly against their philosophy of building a mathematical model, and then NOT putting a thumb on the scales to get an answer that seems to fit better.
    The Republicans strongly outperformed Senate and House polling in 2020. Had Trump not thrown a strop, they'd have held the Senate. That made the De Luxe model look better.

    This time, the polling was generally, very accurate.

    Then add in candidate selection. Despite polarisation, there is plainly a chunk of the Republican electorate who will not vote for terrible candidates. The fact that the Republicans won everything statewide in Georgia, bar the Senate, points to this, as do the results in Pennsylvania, and Arizona. In Penn, the GOP candidate for Governor could hardly feed and dress himself, like their candidate for Senator in Arizona.
    While that's generally true, I think in Georgia you have to account a little bit for incumbency. In the most high profile state-wide Georgia races we have

    Kemp R (incumbent) +7.6%
    Warnock D (incumbent) +1.3%
    Raffensberger R (incumbent) +9.3%
    Chris Carr Attorney General R (incumbent) +5.3%
    Burt Jones Lt Governer R +5.0%

    I'm speculating that the Chris Carr (who defeated a Trump backed primary challenger) and Burt Jones (who was on a slate of fake pro Trump Georgia electors after the 2020 election) margins just represent the background Republican margin in this election, not knowing anything apart from this about the quality of the candidates. Kemp and Raffensberger may have benefited by being both well-known incumbents, and from moderate swing voters giving them credit for famously standing up to Trump.

    IF R+5-5.3% was the background margin, Warnock has done 6.3-6.6% better than this. Maybe half of this is because of incumbency. So maybe 3% of the margin due to otherwise Republican voters not wanting to vote for a terrible candidate. Enough to swing the election (at least from R to run-off), but not that big a chunk. Of course it might be a much bigger than 3% chunk, but it has to be set against the chunk of Republican voters who are positively enthused by the idea of voting for a terrible candidate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    nico679 said:

    If Trump doesn’t run I’d think that would make it more likely Biden doesn’t .

    Ron DeSantis tries to put on a more respectable front but he’s an extremist and just covers it up better . Given his huge win in Florida and likely more broader appeal he would be a big problem for the Dems .

    But how much of his Florida win is due to dodgy electoral goings on, and the elderly decamping to coastal condos, rather than campaigning genius?
    Good question.

    RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote.
    Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote.
    Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).

    Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.

    If course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
    Florida is clearly not a swing State any longer.

    De Santis is a competent governor, who garners majority support on culture war issues, without going off the deep end chasing after Jewish space lasers and backing Putin.
    And his middle way on abortion, 15 weeks, seems to have been accepted as a reasonable compromise by both sides.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,312
    edited November 2022
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1
    Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
    Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls

    Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force

    She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump calls DeSantis a very 'average' governor and lacking in loyalty and class. Certainly suggests Trump ain't standing aside for Ron and will fight him all the way for the GOP nomination in 2024 and maybe beyond as an Independent if DeSantis wins that nomination

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63593457

    Whereas most Conservative media, from Fox News to the Murdoch press, has deciceively turned away from Trump and towards DeSantis in the past 48 hours. There’s little chance of coming back from there, politics is brutal sometimes.
    Trump will still get a large number of Republicans to vote for him in 2024 even if DeSantis wins the nomination.

    Trump will also threaten to run as an Independent if he does not win the nomination most likely, which would hand the election to the Democrats on a plate due to a split Conservative vote.
    And lead to Trump being humiliated when he gets only 5% of the vote.

    He's not someone who wants to be humiliated.

    It would also destroy any hopes the Trump brats have of a political career.
    I doubt it, Ross Perot got 19% in 1992 and handed the election to Bill Clinton on a plate. For despite the fact Clinton got only 43%, Bush 41 ended up with just 37% after leaking votes to Perot.

    Trump is even more of a billionaire ego maniac than Perot with even bigger name recognition as an ex
    President, could self fund his campaign and easily get to 19%. He would do it to humiliate the GOP after what he would see as them humiliating him by not falling in line to support his nomination again.

    In 1912 too former President Theodore Roosevelt ran against sitting GOP President Taft so Democrat Wilson was elected with just 41%


    And Perot got 8% in 1996.

    The law of diminishing returns applies to Trump as well.

    A 78 year old having a tantrum does not attract support.
    Probably Trump will try to do a deal where he promises not to run as independent, in return for republicans shielding him from his legal problems. But actually running would be desperate, and would just increase the chances of him ending up convicted of various crimes.
    Could he fund an independent run though? He can only use it for blackmail if it's doable.
    Probably, if this story is anything to go by:

    "Former President Trump pulled in $255.4 million in political donations from his supporters in the eight weeks following the 2020 election, according to new federal filings, but much of this money—which was solicited to fund challenges to the outcome based on specious claims of voter fraud—will likely be put to other uses."
    In which case maybe he really can blackmail the party for the nomination. Or maybe not, I don't know. Maybe he sulks off or maybe the legals catch up with him. All in all I'm far more confident he won't be president again than he won't one way or another be on the ballot. It's a big big problem for the GOP and the Dems at 2.5 for WH24 looks pretty good to me, even with the uncertainty around Biden running and the issue of his age.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    edited November 2022
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ron Desanctamonious

    wRONg DeSantis. It's right there. I am genuinely disappointed in Trump.
    He'll turn out not to be what you voted for: Con DeSantis

    He'll talk down to voters: Condescending Con DeSantis.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Leon said:



    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1
    Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
    Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls

    Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force

    She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence

    She was never heading for the presidency, as you told us, without winning in her state, and there are a stack of "remember I talent-spotted her first" posts from you - I think we can take these as tips! Nevertheless I am sure most PB'ers will be pleased to see that the feared Curse of Leondamus is alive and well!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548
    An impromptu victory parade in Kherson:

    https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1591002493206814720
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    Leon said:



    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1
    Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
    Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls

    Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force

    She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence
    That would be nice.
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1
    I’m mortified I didn’t take my own advice and bet on Hobbs. 5/1 was madly generous in a two horse race which all the polls said was extremely tight. And 7/1 even better, of course

    Lake fucked up by going superTrump in the last week or two. “I am Trump in a dress” etc
    Trump in a dress sounds a bit woke.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.

    222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.

    I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?

    Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.

    A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .

    The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .

    Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
    538 says
    In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.

    In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.

    We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.

    IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be

    against them but not by much. It could be

    business as usual for Biden.
    538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes

    ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
    No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.

    Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Three 11:01 11 Nov posts. A stain on PB.

    Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
    It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
    It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
    Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.

    Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.

    I tend to find complaints about "poppy fascism" as daft as demands that people wear one.

    People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
    It's not a courageous statement either way, and, as you say, it's a personal choice – or should be. But the moronic attacks on footballers and newsreaders for "failing" to wear their poppy became commonplace for a few years. It's why I stopped wearing a poppy – I used to sport one every year!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.

    222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.

    I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?

    Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.

    A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .

    The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .

    Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
    538 says
    In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.

    In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.

    We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.

    IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be

    against them but not by much. It could be

    business as usual for Biden.
    538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes

    ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
    No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.

    Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Three 11:01 11 Nov posts. A stain on PB.

    Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
    It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
    It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
    Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.

    Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.

    I tend to find complaints about "poppy fascism" as daft as demands that people wear one.

    People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.

    222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.

    I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?

    Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.

    A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .

    The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .

    Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
    538 says
    In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.

    In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.

    We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.

    IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be

    against them but not by much. It could be

    business as usual for Biden.
    538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes

    ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
    No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.

    Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Three 11:01 11 Nov posts. A stain on PB.

    Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
    It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
    It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
    Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.

    Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.

    I tend to find complaints about "poppy fascism" as daft as demands that people wear one.

    People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
    I actually went shopping for one the other day and drew a blank - Tesco, Morrison, local farm supply shop. I am sure five years ago I could have started a twitterstorm and boycott of these people, who clearly want to piss on the graves of our Fallen Heroes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,312
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:



    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1
    Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
    Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls

    Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force

    She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence

    She was never heading for the presidency, as you told us, without winning in her state, and there are a stack of "remember I talent-spotted her first" posts from you - I think we can take these as tips! Nevertheless I am sure most PB'ers will be pleased to see that the feared Curse of Leondamus is alive and well!
    Let us know when you offer precise betting advice - “this is generous at 5/1” - which then wins; rather than mere political observations
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:

    It certainly looks like it will be a bitter and long nomination battle between Trump and De Santis in 2024

    Nah, DeSantis will bottle it. Young man, plenty of time etc.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    https://twitter.com/giantpoppywatch

    feels a bit perfunctory this year too.

    All cried out after HMQ? Got a real time war to focus on this year?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    It certainly looks like it will be a bitter and long nomination battle between Trump and De Santis in 2024

    Nah, DeSantis will bottle it. Young man, plenty of time etc.
    I don't think so. This is his moment. Probably won't get another chance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.

    222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.

    I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?

    Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.

    A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .

    The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .

    Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
    538 says
    In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.

    In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.

    We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.

    IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be

    against them but not by much. It could be

    business as usual for Biden.
    538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes

    ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
    No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.

    Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Three 11:01 11 Nov posts. A stain on PB.

    Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
    It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
    It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
    Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.

    Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.

    I tend to find complaints about "poppy fascism" as daft as demands that people wear one.

    People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
    The complaints are overblown, though not entirely without the occasional justification, so my general position is it could be dialled down several notches
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    Selebian said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
    The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
    Selebian's law of journalism:
    "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you"
    This is where I'm in great shape to enjoy the papers, knowing a lot about so few things. Credit derivatives and the meaning of life, that's about it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,312
    Right. Work to do. Finally. Later

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Russians are claiming that they got both their men and their equipment out of Kherson. Seems somewhat unlikely but it now seems to be under Ukranian control. Another major defeat for Russia after the retreat from Kharkiv.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    ForgottenGenius
    @ExStrategist
    There are more home counties pony club members crying at the moment than at any point since Grace Blakeley's election night party 2019

    Tweet from tim FOTP. Has anyone the first clue what he is on about?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:



    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    The betting is against K. Lake now.

    The 7/1 someone (sorry for forgetting!) tipped here is certainly getting its money's worth.

    I cashed out some, but £40 is still better than nothing, if the Dems do win it.
    @Leon suggested it at 5/1 and @DecrepiterJohnL at 7/1
    Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
    Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls

    Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force

    She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence

    She was never heading for the presidency, as you told us, without winning in her state, and there are a stack of "remember I talent-spotted her first" posts from you - I think we can take these as tips! Nevertheless I am sure most PB'ers will be pleased to see that the feared Curse of Leondamus is alive and well!
    Let us know when you offer precise betting advice - “this is generous at 5/1” - which then wins; rather than mere political observations
    Clearly you missed the recent Tory leadership contest!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ron Desanctamonious

    wRONg DeSantis. It's right there. I am genuinely disappointed in Trump.
    He'll turn out not to be what you voted for: Con DeSantis

    He'll talk down to voters: Condescending Con DeSantis.....
    Condescending and conniving Ron De Sanctimonious

    Um diddle diddle diddle um diddle ai.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    It certainly looks like it will be a bitter and long nomination battle between Trump and De Santis in 2024

    Nah, DeSantis will bottle it. Young man, plenty of time etc.
    I don't think so. This is his moment. Probably won't get another chance.
    His supporters were chanting 2 more years after his victory. They have little doubt that he is going for the White House in 2024. It would be difficult and unwise to back down from that. The GOP needs a saviour to protect itself from Trump and he is now in pole position.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1590956804854497281

    Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    NEW. Britain's Reform Party hits highest ever support in polls of 8% --more than enough to cost Sunak & Cons the next election. Has close to 1 in 8 of Boris Johnson's 2019 voters

    Lab 42% (-5)
    Con 21% (-)
    LibDem 9% (-1)
    Green 9% (+2)
    Reform 8% (+3)
    SNP 5% (-)

    @PeoplePolling
    Nov9

    Goodwin 1. owns/controls People Polling and 2. has a right wing agenda the size of my manhood. But PP is BPC.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    DavidL said:

    Russians are claiming that they got both their men and their equipment out of Kherson. Seems somewhat unlikely but it now seems to be under Ukranian control. Another major defeat for Russia after the retreat from Kharkiv.

    The Russians are probably exaggerating, when they say every man and All equipment, but Also I think most people seem to be expecting massive amounts of POWs and Equipment, and I suspect that will not materialise. in the last 3 big Russian retreets, we have anticipated big halls of POW and Equipment, and while some where captured, it was nowhere near as much as anticipated and I suspect that's going to happen again this time, sadly.

    Russians are getting good at this retreating stuff, best army at retreeting in the would for 6 months in a row!!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited November 2022
    It’s the economy, stupid…..



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591045643836989441

    Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (6 November)

    Labour 35% (-1)
    Conservative 29% (+2)
    Other Parties 15% (-2)
    Don't know 22% (+1)

    Changes +/- 30 October


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591041851850883074
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    .

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    "every electronic device in south east England "

    Hmmm. I think you overestimate the power of such a (non-nuclear) device.

    Also, the ruskies would have to be very, very careful that such an event does not trigger the west's nuclear warning satellites.
    Starfish Prime, which was a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon, detonated 250 miles up, demonstrated the effects of EMP. Which were a concern, but the idea that you get the "17th century" after one goes off is simply not true.

    A nuclear weapon detonated lower will not produce the effect.

    A non-nuclear weapon detonated at that altitude won't create effects that can be noticed on the ground.

    A non-nuclear EMP detonated at ground level will have a very short range - if it does anything at all.
    Starfish Prime was an ABM test, wasn't it ?
    Caused a fair amount of damage in Hawaii, the nearest habitation, which was 900 miles away.

    A similar sized EMP over Britain would cause enormous damage, and likely consequential loss of life. even if the full extent is somewhat unpredictable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    Pro_Rata said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ron Desanctamonious

    wRONg DeSantis. It's right there. I am genuinely disappointed in Trump.
    He'll turn out not to be what you voted for: Con DeSantis

    He'll talk down to voters: Condescending Con DeSantis.....
    Condescending and conniving Ron De Sanctimonious

    Um diddle diddle diddle um diddle ai.
    "Governor Wrong" would be better ?

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    "every electronic device in south east England "

    Hmmm. I think you overestimate the power of such a (non-nuclear) device.

    Also, the ruskies would have to be very, very careful that such an event does not trigger the west's nuclear warning satellites.
    Starfish Prime, which was a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon, detonated 250 miles up, demonstrated the effects of EMP. Which were a concern, but the idea that you get the "17th century" after one goes off is simply not true.

    A nuclear weapon detonated lower will not produce the effect.

    A non-nuclear weapon detonated at that altitude won't create effects that can be noticed on the ground.

    A non-nuclear EMP detonated at ground level will have a very short range - if it does anything at all.
    Starfish Prime was an ABM test, wasn't it ?
    Caused a fair amount of damage in Hawaii, the nearest habitation, which was 900 miles away.

    A similar sized EMP over Britain would cause enormous damage, and likely consequential loss of life. even if the full extent is somewhat unpredictable.
    What a superb name, there's a whole Peter F. Hamilton scifi novel there in just two words.

    Mfrrs of solar batteries take note.
  • Nigelb said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ron Desanctamonious

    wRONg DeSantis. It's right there. I am genuinely disappointed in Trump.
    He'll turn out not to be what you voted for: Con DeSantis

    He'll talk down to voters: Condescending Con DeSantis.....
    Condescending and conniving Ron De Sanctimonious

    Um diddle diddle diddle um diddle ai.
    "Governor Wrong" would be better ?

    If Trump uses that (and it's deffo his style), I'm holding you responsible.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775
    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited November 2022
    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    That’s not the same as installed, economic generating capacity.

    For a full explanation:

    https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i384/wrong_with_the_wind.aspx


    interesting that - for all the fuss and mud-slinging at @These_Islands that has resulted from this report - not one person has come close to defending the 25% figure which the SNP-led Scottish Government has been relentlessly using

    not. one. person


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1590825874911559682
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Cicero said:

    It is unseasonably warm and damp in Tallinn, as in Kyiv. Muddy and bronchitic weather should be making us miserable, but in the last week we have dodged several major bullets. Despite mild political scandals, dredged up by Putin´s black ops, the atmosphere in Estonia has lightened. The US results are one reason: with anti Ukrainian voices weaker after the mid terms, so that the broadly supportive policies of the Biden administration will remain. So we can exhale- the existential threat of a failure of American support for Ukraine is now receding.

    The second reason is of course the comprehensive trashing of the Russian army in Kherson. Although Putinists are grasping at straws: that the withdrawal is complete, or that the tactical situation is under control, we hear of staggering Russian losses. In the end the Russian high command is resorting to the lie direct, that they have executed a difficult operation with zero casualties, yet in Tallinn we hear that the reality is at total variance with the statements from the Kremlin. This has been one of the most serious military defeats in Russian history.

    Estonian private citizens have been sending convoys of equipment to the front in amounts that are extremely impressive considering the small size of the country, friends have been multiple times to different areas of Ukraine with deliveries of trucks, warm clothes, helmets, food, medical equipment and so on. One described the situation in Dnipro as "critical but stable", although generators and diesel being delivered to hospitals and so on. Street lights are out, but in the darkness there is little wavering of the Ukrainian will to fight. The Estonians still believe that Ukrainian victory is the key to their own survival, so the whole population of Estonia is motivated to help in any way possible. The number of refugees is now over 70K, and this is a struggle for a country of only 1.2 million. Estonia has taken 3 times the number of refugees than the UK has and though no one in Tallinn likes to criticize the UK, they could do with some help. Not that Braverman is likely to do anything constructive, which, quite frankly, is to our shame.

    At the remembrance service this morning I spoke with some military figures: UK, Estonian and Polish and there is no doubt that the defeat in Kherson marks if not the beginning of the end, then quite possibly the end of the beginning. Britain and Estonia are renewing bilateral security agreements, and although there is disappointment here that the UK is not maintaining a full brigade into next year, other commitments are being made, though it remains to be seen how long term these turn out to be.

    Nevertheless "at the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will remember them!"

    Wars eventually do end, and if Russia is defeated, as much by its own lies and criminality as by the courage and determination of Ukraine, then in the mud of Kherson may yet be planted the seeds of a new and better post war world.

    Is this what you were attending?

    Estonian soldiers standing guard today over the graves of British servicemen - as they do every year on Britain’s Remembrance Day.

    112 of them sacrificed their lives to support Estonian and Latvian forces in their wars or independence. Their sacrifice will never be forgotten.

    https://twitter.com/adamrangpr/status/1591012552900755457
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    That’s not the same as installed, economic generating capacity.

    For a full explanation:

    https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i384/wrong_with_the_wind.aspx


    interesting that - for all the fuss and mud-slinging at @These_Islands that has resulted from this report - not one person has come close to defending the 25% figure which the SNP-led Scottish Government has been relentlessly using

    not. one. person


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1590825874911559682
    Apart from Ishmael, just now. 😏

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    That’s not the same as installed, economic generating capacity.

    For a full explanation:

    https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i384/wrong_with_the_wind.aspx
    No, of course it bloody isn't. Nor is a one off snapshot evidence of anything.

    You are wrong anyway. Your link is not distinguishing installed capacity vs gross wind, it is distinguishing wind harvestable-by-theoretically-installable-capacity vs gross wind.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775
    Urban warfare is very costly, particularly for the attacking army. I think it's very notable that the Ukrainians have managed to liberate another urban area - a city with a pre-war population of 300,000 - the size of Swansea - and they haven't had to fight street-by-street with the city ending up a complete ruin.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Republican strategist Sarah Longwell: "There is a real risk. You can't, analytically, not understand that there is a risk to Ron DeSantis' career and anybody's career who goes toe to toe with this guy. Trump is not out to beat you. He is out to scorched-earth humiliate you and your career. He will say that your dad murdered JFK and call your wife ugly. He is the worst person in politics. If you are younger, like Ron DeSantis, do you just wait it out for four years or do you risk that?"

    "A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    That’s not the same as installed, economic generating capacity.

    For a full explanation:

    https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i384/wrong_with_the_wind.aspx


    interesting that - for all the fuss and mud-slinging at @These_Islands that has resulted from this report - not one person has come close to defending the 25% figure which the SNP-led Scottish Government has been relentlessly using

    not. one. person


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1590825874911559682
    Apart from Ishmael, just now. 😏

    Memo to self: do not make jokes on PB.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    Politico are clearly fans, as am I.

    The One Race That Shows How Democrats Beat the Red Wave
    The Michigan Democrat had been targeted by the GOP, but she beat them by stealing away some of their own weary voters.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/11/elissa-slotkin-michigan-election-00066278
  • Alistair said:
    Well it's got the blue tick so I believe it
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    Alistair said:
    Outstanding trolling.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    Urban warfare is very costly, particularly for the attacking army. I think it's very notable that the Ukrainians have managed to liberate another urban area - a city with a pre-war population of 300,000 - the size of Swansea - and they haven't had to fight street-by-street with the city ending up a complete ruin.

    Yes that is the most obvious explanation. The Ukrainians have let the Russians go rather than risk the destruction of the city.
  • It’s the economy, stupid…..



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591045643836989441

    Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (6 November)

    Labour 35% (-1)
    Conservative 29% (+2)
    Other Parties 15% (-2)
    Don't know 22% (+1)

    Changes +/- 30 October


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591041851850883074

    And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?

    Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    It’s the economy, stupid…..



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591045643836989441

    Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (6 November)

    Labour 35% (-1)
    Conservative 29% (+2)
    Other Parties 15% (-2)
    Don't know 22% (+1)

    Changes +/- 30 October


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591041851850883074

    And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?

    Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
    Well, they’re going to give austerity another crack, by the looks of it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    It certainly looks like it will be a bitter and long nomination battle between Trump and De Santis in 2024

    Nah, DeSantis will bottle it. Young man, plenty of time etc.
    I don't think so. This is his moment. Probably won't get another chance.
    His supporters were chanting 2 more years after his victory. They have little doubt that he is going for the White House in 2024. It would be difficult and unwise to back down from that. The GOP needs a saviour to protect itself from Trump and he is now in pole position.
    I'd be amazed if he doesn't go for it. The prize is massive and the chance might not come again. Also the notion of letting Trump have it this time and waiting for a later day is crazy because nobody knows what "After Trump" is going to look like. Could be scorched earth and little else.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,182
    AlistairM said:

    Cicero said:

    It is unseasonably warm and damp in Tallinn, as in Kyiv. Muddy and bronchitic weather should be making us miserable, but in the last week we have dodged several major bullets. Despite mild political scandals, dredged up by Putin´s black ops, the atmosphere in Estonia has lightened. The US results are one reason: with anti Ukrainian voices weaker after the mid terms, so that the broadly supportive policies of the Biden administration will remain. So we can exhale- the existential threat of a failure of American support for Ukraine is now receding.

    The second reason is of course the comprehensive trashing of the Russian army in Kherson. Although Putinists are grasping at straws: that the withdrawal is complete, or that the tactical situation is under control, we hear of staggering Russian losses. In the end the Russian high command is resorting to the lie direct, that they have executed a difficult operation with zero casualties, yet in Tallinn we hear that the reality is at total variance with the statements from the Kremlin. This has been one of the most serious military defeats in Russian history.

    Estonian private citizens have been sending convoys of equipment to the front in amounts that are extremely impressive considering the small size of the country, friends have been multiple times to different areas of Ukraine with deliveries of trucks, warm clothes, helmets, food, medical equipment and so on. One described the situation in Dnipro as "critical but stable", although generators and diesel being delivered to hospitals and so on. Street lights are out, but in the darkness there is little wavering of the Ukrainian will to fight. The Estonians still believe that Ukrainian victory is the key to their own survival, so the whole population of Estonia is motivated to help in any way possible. The number of refugees is now over 70K, and this is a struggle for a country of only 1.2 million. Estonia has taken 3 times the number of refugees than the UK has and though no one in Tallinn likes to criticize the UK, they could do with some help. Not that Braverman is likely to do anything constructive, which, quite frankly, is to our shame.

    At the remembrance service this morning I spoke with some military figures: UK, Estonian and Polish and there is no doubt that the defeat in Kherson marks if not the beginning of the end, then quite possibly the end of the beginning. Britain and Estonia are renewing bilateral security agreements, and although there is disappointment here that the UK is not maintaining a full brigade into next year, other commitments are being made, though it remains to be seen how long term these turn out to be.

    Nevertheless "at the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will remember them!"

    Wars eventually do end, and if Russia is defeated, as much by its own lies and criminality as by the courage and determination of Ukraine, then in the mud of Kherson may yet be planted the seeds of a new and better post war world.

    Is this what you were attending?

    Estonian soldiers standing guard today over the graves of British servicemen - as they do every year on Britain’s Remembrance Day.

    112 of them sacrificed their lives to support Estonian and Latvian forces in their wars or independence. Their sacrifice will never be forgotten.

    https://twitter.com/adamrangpr/status/1591012552900755457
    Yes, as every year.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    edited November 2022

    It’s the economy, stupid…..



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591045643836989441

    Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (6 November)

    Labour 35% (-1)
    Conservative 29% (+2)
    Other Parties 15% (-2)
    Don't know 22% (+1)

    Changes +/- 30 October


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591041851850883074

    And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?

    Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
    Rely on Sir Keir not having any good ideas either, neutralising the issue?
  • Driver said:

    It’s the economy, stupid…..



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591045643836989441

    Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (6 November)

    Labour 35% (-1)
    Conservative 29% (+2)
    Other Parties 15% (-2)
    Don't know 22% (+1)

    Changes +/- 30 October


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591041851850883074

    And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?

    Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
    Rely on Sir Keir not having any good ideas either, neutralising the issue?
    And pinch any good ones he does have….
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Urban warfare is very costly, particularly for the attacking army. I think it's very notable that the Ukrainians have managed to liberate another urban area - a city with a pre-war population of 300,000 - the size of Swansea - and they haven't had to fight street-by-street with the city ending up a complete ruin.

    And POWs are a pure drain on resources, unless you value taking them off the field of battle. If you think they are shit soldiers, why bother?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Driver said:

    It’s the economy, stupid…..



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591045643836989441

    Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (6 November)

    Labour 35% (-1)
    Conservative 29% (+2)
    Other Parties 15% (-2)
    Don't know 22% (+1)

    Changes +/- 30 October


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591041851850883074

    And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?

    Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
    Rely on Sir Keir not having any good ideas either, neutralising the issue?
    And pinch any good ones he does have….
    Nah, that boosts him.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    It’s the economy, stupid…..



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591045643836989441

    Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (6 November)

    Labour 35% (-1)
    Conservative 29% (+2)
    Other Parties 15% (-2)
    Don't know 22% (+1)

    Changes +/- 30 October


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591041851850883074

    And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?

    Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
    Equity markets are joyfully growing, yesterday and today, on the theory the fed backs off on IR rate rises after ydays US inflation number, and so can we. Sunak may turn out to be lucky.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:
    Outstanding trolling.
    Blue tick, must be legit :wink:
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    Those aren't WMD, those are used to fry air defence radar and communications systems where you want limited colateral damage. You can have EMP devices that are explosively pumped to produce a burst of microwaves. In most cases a bomb will do just as much destruction for a fraction of the cost.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048
    edited November 2022
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ron Desanctamonious

    wRONg DeSantis. It's right there. I am genuinely disappointed in Trump.
    Being 'wrong' doesn't highlight a personal deficiency of Ron Desantis. I don't know enough about him to know whether he's sanctimonious and whether this perception puts people off him, but that must be what Trump thinks.
  • R4 WATO talking to a midlands manufacturer “Does the government understand the difficulties you are facing?” “Absolutely not”….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    Selebian said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
    The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
    Selebian's law of journalism:
    "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
    https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2021/01/18/gell-mann-amnesia/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    IDEA!

    "We are so nuke crazy, we detonate a nuke above us, in space, every 10 minutes. To generate power. Imagine that we don't like someone or something - just think what we might do?"

    Talk about the Madman's Checkers version of nuclear deterence.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Remarkable that DeSantis is now governor of both Florida and Texas.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
    The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
    Selebian's law of journalism:
    "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you"
    This is where I'm in great shape to enjoy the papers, knowing a lot about so few things. Credit derivatives and the meaning of life, that's about it.
    It is unusual to have interests in things that have no intersection, whatever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    So why does it take California so long to count its votes ?

    And I wonder if the attack on Paul Pelosi had an effect - not the attack itself but the gleeful MAGA reaction to it.

    "How long after Election Day will ballots still count if postmarked by Election Day?

    California has extended the time that vote-by-mail ballots can arrive to county elections offices for this election. Vote-by-mail ballots postmarked on or before Election Day can arrive up to 17 days after Election Day and be counted."
    Blimey. It does seem excessive, even though lawful.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,806
    Selebian said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
    The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
    Selebian's law of journalism:
    "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
    Reminds me of this Michael Crichton piece :

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200221061108/http://larvatus.com/michael-crichton-why-speculate/

    "Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.

    In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
  • Nevada Senate race
    Republican lead fallen from 15812 with 83.03% reported to 8988 with 90.2% reported.

    That seems very close to Dems running out of votes to catch up especially if there are lots of spoilt ballots or whatever other reasons why 90.2% might be slightly understated (number of votes usually ends up being less than the number suggested by the votes reported calculation, right?).

    Am I missing something or is 1.07 to 1.08 digital odds for dem win surprisingly low?
  • IanB2 said:

    Republican strategist Sarah Longwell: "There is a real risk. You can't, analytically, not understand that there is a risk to Ron DeSantis' career and anybody's career who goes toe to toe with this guy. Trump is not out to beat you. He is out to scorched-earth humiliate you and your career. He will say that your dad murdered JFK and call your wife ugly. He is the worst person in politics. If you are younger, like Ron DeSantis, do you just wait it out for four years or do you risk that?"

    "A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.

    The way to handle Trump (certainly if running against him on the right) is probably to descend to his level (sadly).

    The guy projects massively. He smears his opponents to neutralise his own less than desirable characteristics. What the GOP candidates in 2016 failed to do was fight fire with fire. Trump has all his fans because they think he’s strong and witty and calls people out on their personal qualities and failings. People running against him need to feel more confident about directly addressing his.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    O/T I have just felt moved to donate a small payment to Wikipedia; I don't do it very often but 98% don't bother at all apparently.

    It is still amazing to me that Wiki remains free and ad-free. I wonder if that will continue indefinitely.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603


    IanB2 said:

    Republican strategist Sarah Longwell: "There is a real risk. You can't, analytically, not understand that there is a risk to Ron DeSantis' career and anybody's career who goes toe to toe with this guy. Trump is not out to beat you. He is out to scorched-earth humiliate you and your career. He will say that your dad murdered JFK and call your wife ugly. He is the worst person in politics. If you are younger, like Ron DeSantis, do you just wait it out for four years or do you risk that?"

    "A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.

    The way to handle Trump (certainly if running against him on the right) is probably to descend to his level (sadly).

    The guy projects massively. He smears his opponents to neutralise his own less than desirable characteristics. What the GOP candidates in 2016 failed to do was fight fire with fire. Trump has all his fans because they think he’s strong and witty and calls people out on their personal qualities and failings. People running against him need to feel more confident about directly addressing his.

    Yeah you go after him on the "not a real billionaire" and "unpatriotic tax evader" angles and make it really personal. That will drive him absolutely insane.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    ohnotnow said:

    Selebian said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
    The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
    Selebian's law of journalism:
    "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
    Reminds me of this Michael Crichton piece :

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200221061108/http://larvatus.com/michael-crichton-why-speculate/

    "Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.

    In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
    Ah yes, I'd clearly forgotten the Amnesia effect :wink:

    Very true though, isn't it? And I'm surely guilty on this.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    Selebian said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
    The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
    Selebian's law of journalism:
    "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
    https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2021/01/18/gell-mann-amnesia/
    Bastard didn't even cite me :cry:
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,806
    Selebian said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Selebian said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
    The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
    Selebian's law of journalism:
    "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
    Reminds me of this Michael Crichton piece :

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200221061108/http://larvatus.com/michael-crichton-why-speculate/

    "Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.

    In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
    Ah yes, I'd clearly forgotten the Amnesia effect :wink:

    Very true though, isn't it? And I'm surely guilty on this.
    Yeah - I sometimes even find myself musing on it while I'm reading something, then forget that I've remembered it when I read the next thing. Quite a powerful effect.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    "every electronic device in south east England "

    Hmmm. I think you overestimate the power of such a (non-nuclear) device.

    Also, the ruskies would have to be very, very careful that such an event does not trigger the west's nuclear warning satellites.
    Starfish Prime, which was a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon, detonated 250 miles up, demonstrated the effects of EMP. Which were a concern, but the idea that you get the "17th century" after one goes off is simply not true.

    A nuclear weapon detonated lower will not produce the effect.

    A non-nuclear weapon detonated at that altitude won't create effects that can be noticed on the ground.

    A non-nuclear EMP detonated at ground level will have a very short range - if it does anything at all.
    Starfish Prime was an ABM test, wasn't it ?
    Caused a fair amount of damage in Hawaii, the nearest habitation, which was 900 miles away.

    A similar sized EMP over Britain would cause enormous damage, and likely consequential loss of life. even if the full extent is somewhat unpredictable.
    The damage in Hawaii was more annoying than substantial.

    It led to the deep study of EMP effects - which turn out to be problematic, but survivable.

    Essentially, it's bad, but not the end of the world.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    kle4 said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
    Yes, Clinton (H.) might have made a much better president in 2012. Possibly stopped Putin's ambitions with a tougher line in Syria too.
    Hillary Clinton was a disastrous Secretary of State, and she'd have been a worse president. Her main contribution was Libya, where they proved to dictators everywhere that there was no point in doing a deal with the US, and the only way to protect yourself was with nuclear weapons.

    There's no reason to think adding Syria to the US's list of wars would have helped deter Putin in Ukraine, and she and Obama just continued the worst-of-all-possible-worlds fence-sitting on Ukraine that got us where we are today, where they talked about the possibility of Nato membership enough to scare Putin and make him want to destabilize them, but not enough to give them any actual help defending themselves.
    Careful now. It is PB treason to suggest Nato (and/or EU) expansion might have triggered Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    Because its nonsense, given expansion has followed not preceded it.
    Putin is NATO Salesman of the Millenium. What's left? Ireland, Switzerland....
This discussion has been closed.