Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Looking at the maps, he's losing control of the dam, too. A swift de-mining operation should be underway there. (It would not surprise me if UKR SF were tasked with that already.)
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
"every electronic device in south east England "
Hmmm. I think you overestimate the power of such a (non-nuclear) device.
Also, the ruskies would have to be very, very careful that such an event does not trigger the west's nuclear warning satellites.
Starfish Prime, which was a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon, detonated 250 miles up, demonstrated the effects of EMP. Which were a concern, but the idea that you get the "17th century" after one goes off is simply not true.
A nuclear weapon detonated lower will not produce the effect.
A non-nuclear weapon detonated at that altitude won't create effects that can be noticed on the ground.
A non-nuclear EMP detonated at ground level will have a very short range - if it does anything at all.
In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.
222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.
I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?
Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.
A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .
The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .
Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
538 says In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.
In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.
We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.
IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be
against them but not by much. It could be
business as usual for Biden.
538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes
ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.
Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.
Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
Overall, I think it's a good thing that the Republicans have been put on notice that that there's a limit to the amount of batshittery that the voters will tolerate.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
The Ukrainians have cut the supply lines. Modern warfare requires thousands of tons of fuel and ammunition. Otherwise you just have a mob of guys who are quite badly dressed, rather than an army.
By some accounts from the *pro-Russian* sources, the Russian army in Kherson has reached the "badly dressed mob" phase.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
Just wait for our wunderwaffe! They will turn the tide of the war. We have had them for ages but have just decided not to use them.
In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.
222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.
I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?
Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.
A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .
The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .
Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
538 says In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.
In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.
We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.
IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be
against them but not by much. It could be
business as usual for Biden.
538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes
ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.
Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.
Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.
I tend to find complaints about "poppy fascism" as daft as demands that people wear one.
People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
I’m mortified I didn’t take my own advice and bet on Hobbs. 5/1 was madly generous in a two horse race which all the polls said was extremely tight. And 7/1 even better, of course
Lake fucked up by going superTrump in the last week or two. “I am Trump in a dress” etc
Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
If Trump doesn’t run I’d think that would make it more likely Biden doesn’t .
Ron DeSantis tries to put on a more respectable front but he’s an extremist and just covers it up better . Given his huge win in Florida and likely more broader appeal he would be a big problem for the Dems .
But how much of his Florida win is due to dodgy electoral goings on, and the elderly decamping to coastal condos, rather than campaigning genius?
Good question.
RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote. Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote. Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).
Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.
Of course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
If Trump doesn’t run I’d think that would make it more likely Biden doesn’t .
Ron DeSantis tries to put on a more respectable front but he’s an extremist and just covers it up better . Given his huge win in Florida and likely more broader appeal he would be a big problem for the Dems .
But how much of his Florida win is due to dodgy electoral goings on, and the elderly decamping to coastal condos, rather than campaigning genius?
Good question.
RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote. Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote. Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).
Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.
If course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
I think people who live in Florida are generally happy with the "middle way" Ron DeSantis has taken with abortion and his anti-woke stance on transgender issues and taking on Disney. My guess is that if he runs and Trump doesn't run as an independent he will win across the US, potentially with a landslide and in places that the GOP had previously written off.
If Trump doesn’t run I’d think that would make it more likely Biden doesn’t .
Ron DeSantis tries to put on a more respectable front but he’s an extremist and just covers it up better . Given his huge win in Florida and likely more broader appeal he would be a big problem for the Dems .
But how much of his Florida win is due to dodgy electoral goings on, and the elderly decamping to coastal condos, rather than campaigning genius?
Good question.
RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote. Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote. Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).
Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.
If course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
Florida is clearly not a swing State any longer.
De Santis is a competent governor, who garners majority support on culture war issues, without going off the deep end chasing after Jewish space lasers and backing Putin.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.
222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.
Looking back at the 538 forecasts:
Their Lite (polls only) model predicted an average of 229 Republican seats, popular vote lead of R+2.4%, and 75% chance of Republican majority.
Classic (polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more) had average 232 Republican seats, vote margin R+3.8, and 82% chance of R majority.
Deluxe (Classic + experts' ratings) average 230 R seats, popular vote R +4.0, 84% chance R majority.
Their default model is the Deluxe, which they described before the election as "the best and most accurate", but this time the Lite model looks like ending up the most accurate in both average seats and vote margin (and will probably end up forecasting the Senate best too), so I wonder how they will play it next time. The Deluxe model has only been running since 2018, and goes slightly against their philosophy of building a mathematical model, and then NOT putting a thumb on the scales to get an answer that seems to fit better.
The Republicans strongly outperformed Senate and House polling in 2020. Had Trump not thrown a strop, they'd have held the Senate. That made the De Luxe model look better.
This time, the polling was generally, very accurate.
Then add in candidate selection. Despite polarisation, there is plainly a chunk of the Republican electorate who will not vote for terrible candidates. The fact that the Republicans won everything statewide in Georgia, bar the Senate, points to this, as do the results in Pennsylvania, and Arizona. In Penn, the GOP candidate for Governor could hardly feed and dress himself, like their candidate for Senator in Arizona.
While that's generally true, I think in Georgia you have to account a little bit for incumbency. In the most high profile state-wide Georgia races we have
Kemp R (incumbent) +7.6% Warnock D (incumbent) +1.3% Raffensberger R (incumbent) +9.3% Chris Carr Attorney General R (incumbent) +5.3% Burt Jones Lt Governer R +5.0%
I'm speculating that the Chris Carr (who defeated a Trump backed primary challenger) and Burt Jones (who was on a slate of fake pro Trump Georgia electors after the 2020 election) margins just represent the background Republican margin in this election, not knowing anything apart from this about the quality of the candidates. Kemp and Raffensberger may have benefited by being both well-known incumbents, and from moderate swing voters giving them credit for famously standing up to Trump.
IF R+5-5.3% was the background margin, Warnock has done 6.3-6.6% better than this. Maybe half of this is because of incumbency. So maybe 3% of the margin due to otherwise Republican voters not wanting to vote for a terrible candidate. Enough to swing the election (at least from R to run-off), but not that big a chunk. Of course it might be a much bigger than 3% chunk, but it has to be set against the chunk of Republican voters who are positively enthused by the idea of voting for a terrible candidate.
If Trump doesn’t run I’d think that would make it more likely Biden doesn’t .
Ron DeSantis tries to put on a more respectable front but he’s an extremist and just covers it up better . Given his huge win in Florida and likely more broader appeal he would be a big problem for the Dems .
But how much of his Florida win is due to dodgy electoral goings on, and the elderly decamping to coastal condos, rather than campaigning genius?
Good question.
RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote. Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote. Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).
Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.
If course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
Florida is clearly not a swing State any longer.
De Santis is a competent governor, who garners majority support on culture war issues, without going off the deep end chasing after Jewish space lasers and backing Putin.
And his middle way on abortion, 15 weeks, seems to have been accepted as a reasonable compromise by both sides.
Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls
Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force
She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence
It is unseasonably warm and damp in Tallinn, as in Kyiv. Muddy and bronchitic weather should be making us miserable, but in the last week we have dodged several major bullets. Despite mild political scandals, dredged up by Putin´s black ops, the atmosphere in Estonia has lightened. The US results are one reason: with anti Ukrainian voices weaker after the mid terms, so that the broadly supportive policies of the Biden administration will remain. So we can exhale- the existential threat of a failure of American support for Ukraine is now receding.
The second reason is of course the comprehensive trashing of the Russian army in Kherson. Although Putinists are grasping at straws: that the withdrawal is complete, or that the tactical situation is under control, we hear of staggering Russian losses. In the end the Russian high command is resorting to the lie direct, that they have executed a difficult operation with zero casualties, yet in Tallinn we hear that the reality is at total variance with the statements from the Kremlin. This has been one of the most serious military defeats in Russian history.
Estonian private citizens have been sending convoys of equipment to the front in amounts that are extremely impressive considering the small size of the country, friends have been multiple times to different areas of Ukraine with deliveries of trucks, warm clothes, helmets, food, medical equipment and so on. One described the situation in Dnipro as "critical but stable", although generators and diesel being delivered to hospitals and so on. Street lights are out, but in the darkness there is little wavering of the Ukrainian will to fight. The Estonians still believe that Ukrainian victory is the key to their own survival, so the whole population of Estonia is motivated to help in any way possible. The number of refugees is now over 70K, and this is a struggle for a country of only 1.2 million. Estonia has taken 3 times the number of refugees than the UK has and though no one in Tallinn likes to criticize the UK, they could do with some help. Not that Braverman is likely to do anything constructive, which, quite frankly, is to our shame.
At the remembrance service this morning I spoke with some military figures: UK, Estonian and Polish and there is no doubt that the defeat in Kherson marks if not the beginning of the end, then quite possibly the end of the beginning. Britain and Estonia are renewing bilateral security agreements, and although there is disappointment here that the UK is not maintaining a full brigade into next year, other commitments are being made, though it remains to be seen how long term these turn out to be.
Nevertheless "at the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will remember them!"
Wars eventually do end, and if Russia is defeated, as much by its own lies and criminality as by the courage and determination of Ukraine, then in the mud of Kherson may yet be planted the seeds of a new and better post war world.
Trump calls DeSantis a very 'average' governor and lacking in loyalty and class. Certainly suggests Trump ain't standing aside for Ron and will fight him all the way for the GOP nomination in 2024 and maybe beyond as an Independent if DeSantis wins that nomination
Whereas most Conservative media, from Fox News to the Murdoch press, has deciceively turned away from Trump and towards DeSantis in the past 48 hours. There’s little chance of coming back from there, politics is brutal sometimes.
Trump will still get a large number of Republicans to vote for him in 2024 even if DeSantis wins the nomination.
Trump will also threaten to run as an Independent if he does not win the nomination most likely, which would hand the election to the Democrats on a plate due to a split Conservative vote.
And lead to Trump being humiliated when he gets only 5% of the vote.
He's not someone who wants to be humiliated.
It would also destroy any hopes the Trump brats have of a political career.
I doubt it, Ross Perot got 19% in 1992 and handed the election to Bill Clinton on a plate. For despite the fact Clinton got only 43%, Bush 41 ended up with just 37% after leaking votes to Perot.
Trump is even more of a billionaire ego maniac than Perot with even bigger name recognition as an ex President, could self fund his campaign and easily get to 19%. He would do it to humiliate the GOP after what he would see as them humiliating him by not falling in line to support his nomination again.
In 1912 too former President Theodore Roosevelt ran against sitting GOP President Taft so Democrat Wilson was elected with just 41%
And Perot got 8% in 1996.
The law of diminishing returns applies to Trump as well.
A 78 year old having a tantrum does not attract support.
Probably Trump will try to do a deal where he promises not to run as independent, in return for republicans shielding him from his legal problems. But actually running would be desperate, and would just increase the chances of him ending up convicted of various crimes.
Could he fund an independent run though? He can only use it for blackmail if it's doable.
Probably, if this story is anything to go by:
"Former President Trump pulled in $255.4 million in political donations from his supporters in the eight weeks following the 2020 election, according to new federal filings, but much of this money—which was solicited to fund challenges to the outcome based on specious claims of voter fraud—will likely be put to other uses."
In which case maybe he really can blackmail the party for the nomination. Or maybe not, I don't know. Maybe he sulks off or maybe the legals catch up with him. All in all I'm far more confident he won't be president again than he won't one way or another be on the ballot. It's a big big problem for the GOP and the Dems at 2.5 for WH24 looks pretty good to me, even with the uncertainty around Biden running and the issue of his age.
Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls
Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force
She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence
She was never heading for the presidency, as you told us, without winning in her state, and there are a stack of "remember I talent-spotted her first" posts from you - I think we can take these as tips! Nevertheless I am sure most PB'ers will be pleased to see that the feared Curse of Leondamus is alive and well!
Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls
Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force
She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence
I’m mortified I didn’t take my own advice and bet on Hobbs. 5/1 was madly generous in a two horse race which all the polls said was extremely tight. And 7/1 even better, of course
Lake fucked up by going superTrump in the last week or two. “I am Trump in a dress” etc
In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.
222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.
I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?
Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.
A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .
The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .
Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
538 says In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.
In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.
We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.
IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be
against them but not by much. It could be
business as usual for Biden.
538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes
ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.
Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.
Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.
I tend to find complaints about "poppy fascism" as daft as demands that people wear one.
People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
It's not a courageous statement either way, and, as you say, it's a personal choice – or should be. But the moronic attacks on footballers and newsreaders for "failing" to wear their poppy became commonplace for a few years. It's why I stopped wearing a poppy – I used to sport one every year!
In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.
222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.
I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?
Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.
A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .
The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .
Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
538 says In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.
In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.
We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.
IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be
against them but not by much. It could be
business as usual for Biden.
538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes
ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.
Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.
Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.
I tend to find complaints about "poppy fascism" as daft as demands that people wear one.
People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.
222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.
I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?
Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.
A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .
The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .
Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
538 says In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.
In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.
We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.
IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be
against them but not by much. It could be
business as usual for Biden.
538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes
ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.
Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.
Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.
I tend to find complaints about "poppy fascism" as daft as demands that people wear one.
People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
I actually went shopping for one the other day and drew a blank - Tesco, Morrison, local farm supply shop. I am sure five years ago I could have started a twitterstorm and boycott of these people, who clearly want to piss on the graves of our Fallen Heroes.
Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls
Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force
She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence
She was never heading for the presidency, as you told us, without winning in her state, and there are a stack of "remember I talent-spotted her first" posts from you - I think we can take these as tips! Nevertheless I am sure most PB'ers will be pleased to see that the feared Curse of Leondamus is alive and well!
Let us know when you offer precise betting advice - “this is generous at 5/1” - which then wins; rather than mere political observations
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
Selebian's law of journalism: "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
In terms of votes the Republicans lead by 51.2 million to 46 million. That gap will narrow as California completes its counting, to something like 56 million to 54 million.
222/3 Republicans to 212/3 Democrats seems the likeliest outcome, now. And, Boebert will return to infest the House.
I am not particularly au fait with how party discipline works in the House, I feel much more clued up in terms of how the Senate works. I would have thought a House majority of 10 would be very unstable for actually passing much that the GOP leadership would want, but maybe the whipping operation is more effective there than here?
Certainly Pelosi seemed to manage OK with a small majority but then I think she has earned a reputation as a very strong congressional dealmaker.
A narrow win for the GOP is likely to lead to lots of problems as each wing of the party fights to exert their influence . You have the real nutjobs like the Freedom caucus and you’re also likely to have the new intake of GOP house members from deep blue states concerned about their re-election chances if they rubber stamp an extreme agenda .
The Dems should go for the controversial option in the lame duck session and raise the debt ceiling right upto the next Presidential election otherwise the GOP are likely to force a confrontation on that . They’re going to want to cut social security and Medicare which the Dems won’t be able to stomach .
Actual revolts in terms of members voting with the opposite party are rare (and actual defections to the other party are vanishingly rare). As in the UK, the majority party managers get a realistic view of the chances of each Bill, and don't press anything that won't get a majority (the US have the additional problem that legislation has to get through the equivalent of Select Committees, where revolts do happen). A Dem President, a virtually tied Senate and a tiny GOP House majority is a textbook example of likely gridlock. Only things with broad cross-party response will pass.
538 says In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.
In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.
We know that the Georgia has Warnock ahead or Walker so a Dem hold there is quite possible in the runoff.
IF the Dems win all 3 they will have gained one overall and they could pay a tiny bit less attention to Manchin and Sinema. The House will be
against them but not by much. It could be
business as usual for Biden.
538 has the wrong figures . Kelly is 115,000 votes
ahead as per the SOS website and Casto is now 9,000 votes behind .
No, indeed that would surely make the projection more concrete. I’m expecting an AZ call when the west coast wakes up.
Yes, 538 figures are now out of date, but does that alter their projection?
Realise this is irony, but I've found the poppy fascism to have stepped down a notch this year. Have the public started to realise how ridiculous it had become?
It definitely feels less this year. Perhaps CoL etc is drowning out everything else?
It could also subconsciously be something to do with HMQ not being with us anymore. The wartime generation is now more or less gone, and she was a strong representation of that.
Thankfully this year the far too early poppy mania seems to have eased a bit. Poppy fascism? Not noticed it much ever really. People died for the freedom not to be compelled into things, whether it's a yellow star or a poppy. And the right to tell others what they think of their actions and have a go at the yoof of today.
Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.
I tend to find complaints about "poppy fascism" as daft as demands that people wear one.
People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
The complaints are overblown, though not entirely without the occasional justification, so my general position is it could be dialled down several notches
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
Selebian's law of journalism: "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you"
This is where I'm in great shape to enjoy the papers, knowing a lot about so few things. Credit derivatives and the meaning of life, that's about it.
Russians are claiming that they got both their men and their equipment out of Kherson. Seems somewhat unlikely but it now seems to be under Ukranian control. Another major defeat for Russia after the retreat from Kharkiv.
ForgottenGenius @ExStrategist There are more home counties pony club members crying at the moment than at any point since Grace Blakeley's election night party 2019
Tweet from tim FOTP. Has anyone the first clue what he is on about?
Leon was just trying to hedge his bets after the votes were cast, after months of assuring us all that she would be the next big thing, first female US president, and the rest. But it turns out that a sample of a handful of very wealthy ranch owners is no more reliable than taking an opinion poll on Primrose Hill...
Nonetheless the only betting advice I ever gave on Kari Lake was, paradoxically, bet against her - when I checked the odds and noted how generous they were, given that Lake was far from certain to win, as per the polls
Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force
She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence
She was never heading for the presidency, as you told us, without winning in her state, and there are a stack of "remember I talent-spotted her first" posts from you - I think we can take these as tips! Nevertheless I am sure most PB'ers will be pleased to see that the feared Curse of Leondamus is alive and well!
Let us know when you offer precise betting advice - “this is generous at 5/1” - which then wins; rather than mere political observations
Clearly you missed the recent Tory leadership contest!
It certainly looks like it will be a bitter and long nomination battle between Trump and De Santis in 2024
Nah, DeSantis will bottle it. Young man, plenty of time etc.
I don't think so. This is his moment. Probably won't get another chance.
His supporters were chanting 2 more years after his victory. They have little doubt that he is going for the White House in 2024. It would be difficult and unwise to back down from that. The GOP needs a saviour to protect itself from Trump and he is now in pole position.
Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ NEW. Britain's Reform Party hits highest ever support in polls of 8% --more than enough to cost Sunak & Cons the next election. Has close to 1 in 8 of Boris Johnson's 2019 voters
Lab 42% (-5) Con 21% (-) LibDem 9% (-1) Green 9% (+2) Reform 8% (+3) SNP 5% (-)
Russians are claiming that they got both their men and their equipment out of Kherson. Seems somewhat unlikely but it now seems to be under Ukranian control. Another major defeat for Russia after the retreat from Kharkiv.
The Russians are probably exaggerating, when they say every man and All equipment, but Also I think most people seem to be expecting massive amounts of POWs and Equipment, and I suspect that will not materialise. in the last 3 big Russian retreets, we have anticipated big halls of POW and Equipment, and while some where captured, it was nowhere near as much as anticipated and I suspect that's going to happen again this time, sadly.
Russians are getting good at this retreating stuff, best army at retreeting in the would for 6 months in a row!!!
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
"every electronic device in south east England "
Hmmm. I think you overestimate the power of such a (non-nuclear) device.
Also, the ruskies would have to be very, very careful that such an event does not trigger the west's nuclear warning satellites.
Starfish Prime, which was a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon, detonated 250 miles up, demonstrated the effects of EMP. Which were a concern, but the idea that you get the "17th century" after one goes off is simply not true.
A nuclear weapon detonated lower will not produce the effect.
A non-nuclear weapon detonated at that altitude won't create effects that can be noticed on the ground.
A non-nuclear EMP detonated at ground level will have a very short range - if it does anything at all.
Starfish Prime was an ABM test, wasn't it ? Caused a fair amount of damage in Hawaii, the nearest habitation, which was 900 miles away.
A similar sized EMP over Britain would cause enormous damage, and likely consequential loss of life. even if the full extent is somewhat unpredictable.
Russians are claiming that they got both their men and their equipment out of Kherson. Seems somewhat unlikely but it now seems to be under Ukranian control. Another major defeat for Russia after the retreat from Kharkiv.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
"every electronic device in south east England "
Hmmm. I think you overestimate the power of such a (non-nuclear) device.
Also, the ruskies would have to be very, very careful that such an event does not trigger the west's nuclear warning satellites.
Starfish Prime, which was a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon, detonated 250 miles up, demonstrated the effects of EMP. Which were a concern, but the idea that you get the "17th century" after one goes off is simply not true.
A nuclear weapon detonated lower will not produce the effect.
A non-nuclear weapon detonated at that altitude won't create effects that can be noticed on the ground.
A non-nuclear EMP detonated at ground level will have a very short range - if it does anything at all.
Starfish Prime was an ABM test, wasn't it ? Caused a fair amount of damage in Hawaii, the nearest habitation, which was 900 miles away.
A similar sized EMP over Britain would cause enormous damage, and likely consequential loss of life. even if the full extent is somewhat unpredictable.
What a superb name, there's a whole Peter F. Hamilton scifi novel there in just two words.
interesting that - for all the fuss and mud-slinging at @These_Islands that has resulted from this report - not one person has come close to defending the 25% figure which the SNP-led Scottish Government has been relentlessly using
It is unseasonably warm and damp in Tallinn, as in Kyiv. Muddy and bronchitic weather should be making us miserable, but in the last week we have dodged several major bullets. Despite mild political scandals, dredged up by Putin´s black ops, the atmosphere in Estonia has lightened. The US results are one reason: with anti Ukrainian voices weaker after the mid terms, so that the broadly supportive policies of the Biden administration will remain. So we can exhale- the existential threat of a failure of American support for Ukraine is now receding.
The second reason is of course the comprehensive trashing of the Russian army in Kherson. Although Putinists are grasping at straws: that the withdrawal is complete, or that the tactical situation is under control, we hear of staggering Russian losses. In the end the Russian high command is resorting to the lie direct, that they have executed a difficult operation with zero casualties, yet in Tallinn we hear that the reality is at total variance with the statements from the Kremlin. This has been one of the most serious military defeats in Russian history.
Estonian private citizens have been sending convoys of equipment to the front in amounts that are extremely impressive considering the small size of the country, friends have been multiple times to different areas of Ukraine with deliveries of trucks, warm clothes, helmets, food, medical equipment and so on. One described the situation in Dnipro as "critical but stable", although generators and diesel being delivered to hospitals and so on. Street lights are out, but in the darkness there is little wavering of the Ukrainian will to fight. The Estonians still believe that Ukrainian victory is the key to their own survival, so the whole population of Estonia is motivated to help in any way possible. The number of refugees is now over 70K, and this is a struggle for a country of only 1.2 million. Estonia has taken 3 times the number of refugees than the UK has and though no one in Tallinn likes to criticize the UK, they could do with some help. Not that Braverman is likely to do anything constructive, which, quite frankly, is to our shame.
At the remembrance service this morning I spoke with some military figures: UK, Estonian and Polish and there is no doubt that the defeat in Kherson marks if not the beginning of the end, then quite possibly the end of the beginning. Britain and Estonia are renewing bilateral security agreements, and although there is disappointment here that the UK is not maintaining a full brigade into next year, other commitments are being made, though it remains to be seen how long term these turn out to be.
Nevertheless "at the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will remember them!"
Wars eventually do end, and if Russia is defeated, as much by its own lies and criminality as by the courage and determination of Ukraine, then in the mud of Kherson may yet be planted the seeds of a new and better post war world.
Is this what you were attending?
Estonian soldiers standing guard today over the graves of British servicemen - as they do every year on Britain’s Remembrance Day.
interesting that - for all the fuss and mud-slinging at @These_Islands that has resulted from this report - not one person has come close to defending the 25% figure which the SNP-led Scottish Government has been relentlessly using
No, of course it bloody isn't. Nor is a one off snapshot evidence of anything.
You are wrong anyway. Your link is not distinguishing installed capacity vs gross wind, it is distinguishing wind harvestable-by-theoretically-installable-capacity vs gross wind.
Urban warfare is very costly, particularly for the attacking army. I think it's very notable that the Ukrainians have managed to liberate another urban area - a city with a pre-war population of 300,000 - the size of Swansea - and they haven't had to fight street-by-street with the city ending up a complete ruin.
Republican strategist Sarah Longwell: "There is a real risk. You can't, analytically, not understand that there is a risk to Ron DeSantis' career and anybody's career who goes toe to toe with this guy. Trump is not out to beat you. He is out to scorched-earth humiliate you and your career. He will say that your dad murdered JFK and call your wife ugly. He is the worst person in politics. If you are younger, like Ron DeSantis, do you just wait it out for four years or do you risk that?"
"A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.
interesting that - for all the fuss and mud-slinging at @These_Islands that has resulted from this report - not one person has come close to defending the 25% figure which the SNP-led Scottish Government has been relentlessly using
Urban warfare is very costly, particularly for the attacking army. I think it's very notable that the Ukrainians have managed to liberate another urban area - a city with a pre-war population of 300,000 - the size of Swansea - and they haven't had to fight street-by-street with the city ending up a complete ruin.
Yes that is the most obvious explanation. The Ukrainians have let the Russians go rather than risk the destruction of the city.
And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?
Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?
Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
Well, they’re going to give austerity another crack, by the looks of it.
It certainly looks like it will be a bitter and long nomination battle between Trump and De Santis in 2024
Nah, DeSantis will bottle it. Young man, plenty of time etc.
I don't think so. This is his moment. Probably won't get another chance.
His supporters were chanting 2 more years after his victory. They have little doubt that he is going for the White House in 2024. It would be difficult and unwise to back down from that. The GOP needs a saviour to protect itself from Trump and he is now in pole position.
I'd be amazed if he doesn't go for it. The prize is massive and the chance might not come again. Also the notion of letting Trump have it this time and waiting for a later day is crazy because nobody knows what "After Trump" is going to look like. Could be scorched earth and little else.
It is unseasonably warm and damp in Tallinn, as in Kyiv. Muddy and bronchitic weather should be making us miserable, but in the last week we have dodged several major bullets. Despite mild political scandals, dredged up by Putin´s black ops, the atmosphere in Estonia has lightened. The US results are one reason: with anti Ukrainian voices weaker after the mid terms, so that the broadly supportive policies of the Biden administration will remain. So we can exhale- the existential threat of a failure of American support for Ukraine is now receding.
The second reason is of course the comprehensive trashing of the Russian army in Kherson. Although Putinists are grasping at straws: that the withdrawal is complete, or that the tactical situation is under control, we hear of staggering Russian losses. In the end the Russian high command is resorting to the lie direct, that they have executed a difficult operation with zero casualties, yet in Tallinn we hear that the reality is at total variance with the statements from the Kremlin. This has been one of the most serious military defeats in Russian history.
Estonian private citizens have been sending convoys of equipment to the front in amounts that are extremely impressive considering the small size of the country, friends have been multiple times to different areas of Ukraine with deliveries of trucks, warm clothes, helmets, food, medical equipment and so on. One described the situation in Dnipro as "critical but stable", although generators and diesel being delivered to hospitals and so on. Street lights are out, but in the darkness there is little wavering of the Ukrainian will to fight. The Estonians still believe that Ukrainian victory is the key to their own survival, so the whole population of Estonia is motivated to help in any way possible. The number of refugees is now over 70K, and this is a struggle for a country of only 1.2 million. Estonia has taken 3 times the number of refugees than the UK has and though no one in Tallinn likes to criticize the UK, they could do with some help. Not that Braverman is likely to do anything constructive, which, quite frankly, is to our shame.
At the remembrance service this morning I spoke with some military figures: UK, Estonian and Polish and there is no doubt that the defeat in Kherson marks if not the beginning of the end, then quite possibly the end of the beginning. Britain and Estonia are renewing bilateral security agreements, and although there is disappointment here that the UK is not maintaining a full brigade into next year, other commitments are being made, though it remains to be seen how long term these turn out to be.
Nevertheless "at the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will remember them!"
Wars eventually do end, and if Russia is defeated, as much by its own lies and criminality as by the courage and determination of Ukraine, then in the mud of Kherson may yet be planted the seeds of a new and better post war world.
Is this what you were attending?
Estonian soldiers standing guard today over the graves of British servicemen - as they do every year on Britain’s Remembrance Day.
And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?
Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
Rely on Sir Keir not having any good ideas either, neutralising the issue?
And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?
Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
Rely on Sir Keir not having any good ideas either, neutralising the issue?
Urban warfare is very costly, particularly for the attacking army. I think it's very notable that the Ukrainians have managed to liberate another urban area - a city with a pre-war population of 300,000 - the size of Swansea - and they haven't had to fight street-by-street with the city ending up a complete ruin.
And POWs are a pure drain on resources, unless you value taking them off the field of battle. If you think they are shit soldiers, why bother?
And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?
Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
Rely on Sir Keir not having any good ideas either, neutralising the issue?
If Trump doesn’t run I’d think that would make it more likely Biden doesn’t .
Ron DeSantis tries to put on a more respectable front but he’s an extremist and just covers it up better . Given his huge win in Florida and likely more broader appeal he would be a big problem for the Dems .
But how much of his Florida win is due to dodgy electoral goings on, and the elderly decamping to coastal condos, rather than campaigning genius?
Good question.
RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote. Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote. Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).
Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.
If course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
Florida is clearly not a swing State any longer.
De Santis is a competent governor, who garners majority support on culture war issues, without going off the deep end chasing after Jewish space lasers and backing Putin.
While he’s not at MTG levels of craziness, DeSantis (no space between De and Santis) is definitely a crazy. He has repeatedly pushed legislation that makes no actual sense. He backed a law stopping social media companies from deplatforming political candidates, that obviously violated the First Amendment and was soon blocked for violating the First Amendment.
He signed a bill banning sanctuary cities in Florida to look tough on immigration. There are no sanctuary cities in Florida, however.
He supports hiring military veterans to act as armed guards at schools. He wants to expand Florida’s stand-your-ground rules to allow members of the public to shoot looters dead.
He’s gone around suggesting the solution to COVID isn’t masks but monoclonal antibody treatment… oh, yes, and one of his main political donors makes one of those monoclonal antibody treatments. He appointed a COVID conspiracist as the state’s Surgeon General.
He was part of those stunts, probably illegal, to fly asylum seekers to Blue states and dump them there.
He’s said some complete nonsense about slavery in attempts to bad schools and universities saying things he doesn’t like.
And that being the case, what on Earth do the Conservatives do?
Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
Equity markets are joyfully growing, yesterday and today, on the theory the fed backs off on IR rate rises after ydays US inflation number, and so can we. Sunak may turn out to be lucky.
Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.
"President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."
Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.
Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable. And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
Yes, Clinton (H.) might have made a much better president in 2012. Possibly stopped Putin's ambitions with a tougher line in Syria too.
Hillary Clinton was a disastrous Secretary of State, and she'd have been a worse president. Her main contribution was Libya, where they proved to dictators everywhere that there was no point in doing a deal with the US, and the only way to protect yourself was with nuclear weapons.
There's no reason to think adding Syria to the US's list of wars would have helped deter Putin in Ukraine, and she and Obama just continued the worst-of-all-possible-worlds fence-sitting on Ukraine that got us where we are today, where they talked about the possibility of Nato membership enough to scare Putin and make him want to destabilize them, but not enough to give them any actual help defending themselves.
Careful now. It is PB treason to suggest Nato (and/or EU) expansion might have triggered Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Because its nonsense, given expansion has followed not preceded it.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
Those aren't WMD, those are used to fry air defence radar and communications systems where you want limited colateral damage. You can have EMP devices that are explosively pumped to produce a burst of microwaves. In most cases a bomb will do just as much destruction for a fraction of the cost.
wRONg DeSantis. It's right there. I am genuinely disappointed in Trump.
Being 'wrong' doesn't highlight a personal deficiency of Ron Desantis. I don't know enough about him to know whether he's sanctimonious and whether this perception puts people off him, but that must be what Trump thinks.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
Selebian's law of journalism: "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics
Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
IDEA!
"We are so nuke crazy, we detonate a nuke above us, in space, every 10 minutes. To generate power. Imagine that we don't like someone or something - just think what we might do?"
Talk about the Madman's Checkers version of nuclear deterence.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
Selebian's law of journalism: "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you"
This is where I'm in great shape to enjoy the papers, knowing a lot about so few things. Credit derivatives and the meaning of life, that's about it.
It is unusual to have interests in things that have no intersection, whatever.
So why does it take California so long to count its votes ?
And I wonder if the attack on Paul Pelosi had an effect - not the attack itself but the gleeful MAGA reaction to it.
"How long after Election Day will ballots still count if postmarked by Election Day?
California has extended the time that vote-by-mail ballots can arrive to county elections offices for this election. Vote-by-mail ballots postmarked on or before Election Day can arrive up to 17 days after Election Day and be counted."
Blimey. It does seem excessive, even though lawful.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
Selebian's law of journalism: "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
Nevada Senate race Republican lead fallen from 15812 with 83.03% reported to 8988 with 90.2% reported.
That seems very close to Dems running out of votes to catch up especially if there are lots of spoilt ballots or whatever other reasons why 90.2% might be slightly understated (number of votes usually ends up being less than the number suggested by the votes reported calculation, right?).
Am I missing something or is 1.07 to 1.08 digital odds for dem win surprisingly low?
Republican strategist Sarah Longwell: "There is a real risk. You can't, analytically, not understand that there is a risk to Ron DeSantis' career and anybody's career who goes toe to toe with this guy. Trump is not out to beat you. He is out to scorched-earth humiliate you and your career. He will say that your dad murdered JFK and call your wife ugly. He is the worst person in politics. If you are younger, like Ron DeSantis, do you just wait it out for four years or do you risk that?"
"A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.
The way to handle Trump (certainly if running against him on the right) is probably to descend to his level (sadly).
The guy projects massively. He smears his opponents to neutralise his own less than desirable characteristics. What the GOP candidates in 2016 failed to do was fight fire with fire. Trump has all his fans because they think he’s strong and witty and calls people out on their personal qualities and failings. People running against him need to feel more confident about directly addressing his.
Republican strategist Sarah Longwell: "There is a real risk. You can't, analytically, not understand that there is a risk to Ron DeSantis' career and anybody's career who goes toe to toe with this guy. Trump is not out to beat you. He is out to scorched-earth humiliate you and your career. He will say that your dad murdered JFK and call your wife ugly. He is the worst person in politics. If you are younger, like Ron DeSantis, do you just wait it out for four years or do you risk that?"
"A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.
The way to handle Trump (certainly if running against him on the right) is probably to descend to his level (sadly).
The guy projects massively. He smears his opponents to neutralise his own less than desirable characteristics. What the GOP candidates in 2016 failed to do was fight fire with fire. Trump has all his fans because they think he’s strong and witty and calls people out on their personal qualities and failings. People running against him need to feel more confident about directly addressing his.
Yeah you go after him on the "not a real billionaire" and "unpatriotic tax evader" angles and make it really personal. That will drive him absolutely insane.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
Selebian's law of journalism: "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
Ah yes, I'd clearly forgotten the Amnesia effect
Very true though, isn't it? And I'm surely guilty on this.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
Selebian's law of journalism: "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
Selebian's law of journalism: "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
Ah yes, I'd clearly forgotten the Amnesia effect
Very true though, isn't it? And I'm surely guilty on this.
Yeah - I sometimes even find myself musing on it while I'm reading something, then forget that I've remembered it when I read the next thing. Quite a powerful effect.
Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week
“How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”
It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger
Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke. Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
Perhaps; however:
A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
The FT (££) has a deliciously different take
“A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.
“But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”
Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
"every electronic device in south east England "
Hmmm. I think you overestimate the power of such a (non-nuclear) device.
Also, the ruskies would have to be very, very careful that such an event does not trigger the west's nuclear warning satellites.
Starfish Prime, which was a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon, detonated 250 miles up, demonstrated the effects of EMP. Which were a concern, but the idea that you get the "17th century" after one goes off is simply not true.
A nuclear weapon detonated lower will not produce the effect.
A non-nuclear weapon detonated at that altitude won't create effects that can be noticed on the ground.
A non-nuclear EMP detonated at ground level will have a very short range - if it does anything at all.
Starfish Prime was an ABM test, wasn't it ? Caused a fair amount of damage in Hawaii, the nearest habitation, which was 900 miles away.
A similar sized EMP over Britain would cause enormous damage, and likely consequential loss of life. even if the full extent is somewhat unpredictable.
The damage in Hawaii was more annoying than substantial.
It led to the deep study of EMP effects - which turn out to be problematic, but survivable.
Essentially, it's bad, but not the end of the world.
Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.
"President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."
Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.
Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable. And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
Yes, Clinton (H.) might have made a much better president in 2012. Possibly stopped Putin's ambitions with a tougher line in Syria too.
Hillary Clinton was a disastrous Secretary of State, and she'd have been a worse president. Her main contribution was Libya, where they proved to dictators everywhere that there was no point in doing a deal with the US, and the only way to protect yourself was with nuclear weapons.
There's no reason to think adding Syria to the US's list of wars would have helped deter Putin in Ukraine, and she and Obama just continued the worst-of-all-possible-worlds fence-sitting on Ukraine that got us where we are today, where they talked about the possibility of Nato membership enough to scare Putin and make him want to destabilize them, but not enough to give them any actual help defending themselves.
Careful now. It is PB treason to suggest Nato (and/or EU) expansion might have triggered Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Because its nonsense, given expansion has followed not preceded it.
Putin is NATO Salesman of the Millenium. What's left? Ireland, Switzerland....
Comments
A nuclear weapon detonated lower will not produce the effect.
A non-nuclear weapon detonated at that altitude won't create effects that can be noticed on the ground.
A non-nuclear EMP detonated at ground level will have a very short range - if it does anything at all.
Someone had a go at me last year for not wearing a purple poppy. Apparently this marks the fallen animals in war. I'll stick with red, for a maximum of 7 days, but won't forget the horses and dogs of war.
The FT, then the Times
What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him
Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
By some accounts from the *pro-Russian* sources, the Russian army in Kherson has reached the "badly dressed mob" phase.
People are free to wear or not to wear then, but you aren't making some courageous statement by not wearing one.
Lake fucked up by going superTrump in the last week or two. “I am Trump in a dress” etc
It is reported that the advance of Ukrainian forces to the center of Kherson has slowed down as they have to break through the crowds of local residents trying to hug the soldiers
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591026389268168705
The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.
The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
RDS won the election with 59.4% of the vote.
Rubio won the parallel Senate election with 57.7% of the vote.
Other statewide races were won by the Republican candidates with 61% (AG), 59% (AC), 59% (CFO), 59% (SA).
Not a huge amount of split-ticket voting, but certainly it suggests RDS > Rubio, but not the most popular Republican on the ballot.
Of course it could be that RDS is wildly popular and drove up GOP turnout, and also has very effective coattails for other candidates, but if he'd done a lot better than Rubio it would have been surer evidence that he had a particularly personal appeal.
De Santis is a competent governor, who garners majority support on culture war issues, without going off the deep end chasing after Jewish space lasers and backing Putin.
Kemp R (incumbent) +7.6%
Warnock D (incumbent) +1.3%
Raffensberger R (incumbent) +9.3%
Chris Carr Attorney General R (incumbent) +5.3%
Burt Jones Lt Governer R +5.0%
I'm speculating that the Chris Carr (who defeated a Trump backed primary challenger) and Burt Jones (who was on a slate of fake pro Trump Georgia electors after the 2020 election) margins just represent the background Republican margin in this election, not knowing anything apart from this about the quality of the candidates. Kemp and Raffensberger may have benefited by being both well-known incumbents, and from moderate swing voters giving them credit for famously standing up to Trump.
IF R+5-5.3% was the background margin, Warnock has done 6.3-6.6% better than this. Maybe half of this is because of incumbency. So maybe 3% of the margin due to otherwise Republican voters not wanting to vote for a terrible candidate. Enough to swing the election (at least from R to run-off), but not that big a chunk. Of course it might be a much bigger than 3% chunk, but it has to be set against the chunk of Republican voters who are positively enthused by the idea of voting for a terrible candidate.
Presuming she loses this, it will be interesting to see what she does next. Because she really does have political talent and charisma, but she’s tied herself far too close to Trump, who is a declining force
She may simply disappear. Like a weird blue Medusa orb, that pulses briefly overhead, then vanishes, leaving behind only an eerie silence
The second reason is of course the comprehensive trashing of the Russian army in Kherson. Although Putinists are grasping at straws: that the withdrawal is complete, or that the tactical situation is under control, we hear of staggering Russian losses. In the end the Russian high command is resorting to the lie direct, that they have executed a difficult operation with zero casualties, yet in Tallinn we hear that the reality is at total variance with the statements from the Kremlin. This has been one of the most serious military defeats in Russian history.
Estonian private citizens have been sending convoys of equipment to the front in amounts that are extremely impressive considering the small size of the country, friends have been multiple times to different areas of Ukraine with deliveries of trucks, warm clothes, helmets, food, medical equipment and so on. One described the situation in Dnipro as "critical but stable", although generators and diesel being delivered to hospitals and so on. Street lights are out, but in the darkness there is little wavering of the Ukrainian will to fight. The Estonians still believe that Ukrainian victory is the key to their own survival, so the whole population of Estonia is motivated to help in any way possible. The number of refugees is now over 70K, and this is a struggle for a country of only 1.2 million. Estonia has taken 3 times the number of refugees than the UK has and though no one in Tallinn likes to criticize the UK, they could do with some help. Not that Braverman is likely to do anything constructive, which, quite frankly, is to our shame.
At the remembrance service this morning I spoke with some military figures: UK, Estonian and Polish and there is no doubt that the defeat in Kherson marks if not the beginning of the end, then quite possibly the end of the beginning. Britain and Estonia are renewing bilateral security agreements, and although there is disappointment here that the UK is not maintaining a full brigade into next year, other commitments are being made, though it remains to be seen how long term these turn out to be.
Nevertheless "at the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will remember them!"
Wars eventually do end, and if Russia is defeated, as much by its own lies and criminality as by the courage and determination of Ukraine, then in the mud of Kherson may yet be planted the seeds of a new and better post war world.
He'll talk down to voters: Condescending Con DeSantis.....
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1591002493206814720
"Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
feels a bit perfunctory this year too.
All cried out after HMQ? Got a real time war to focus on this year?
ForgottenGenius
@ExStrategist
There are more home counties pony club members crying at the moment than at any point since Grace Blakeley's election night party 2019
Tweet from tim FOTP. Has anyone the first clue what he is on about?
Um diddle diddle diddle um diddle ai.
Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics
Matt Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
NEW. Britain's Reform Party hits highest ever support in polls of 8% --more than enough to cost Sunak & Cons the next election. Has close to 1 in 8 of Boris Johnson's 2019 voters
Lab 42% (-5)
Con 21% (-)
LibDem 9% (-1)
Green 9% (+2)
Reform 8% (+3)
SNP 5% (-)
@PeoplePolling
Nov9
Goodwin 1. owns/controls People Polling and 2. has a right wing agenda the size of my manhood. But PP is BPC.
Time to get the superglue out and barricade yourselves to gantries on the M25.
Russians are getting good at this retreating stuff, best army at retreeting in the would for 6 months in a row!!!
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591045643836989441
Which party do Britons trust the most to manage the economy? (6 November)
Labour 35% (-1)
Conservative 29% (+2)
Other Parties 15% (-2)
Don't know 22% (+1)
Changes +/- 30 October
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591041851850883074
Caused a fair amount of damage in Hawaii, the nearest habitation, which was 900 miles away.
A similar sized EMP over Britain would cause enormous damage, and likely consequential loss of life. even if the full extent is somewhat unpredictable.
Mfrrs of solar batteries take note.
For a full explanation:
https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i384/wrong_with_the_wind.aspx
interesting that - for all the fuss and mud-slinging at @These_Islands that has resulted from this report - not one person has come close to defending the 25% figure which the SNP-led Scottish Government has been relentlessly using
not. one. person
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1590825874911559682
Estonian soldiers standing guard today over the graves of British servicemen - as they do every year on Britain’s Remembrance Day.
112 of them sacrificed their lives to support Estonian and Latvian forces in their wars or independence. Their sacrifice will never be forgotten.
https://twitter.com/adamrangpr/status/1591012552900755457
You are wrong anyway. Your link is not distinguishing installed capacity vs gross wind, it is distinguishing wind harvestable-by-theoretically-installable-capacity vs gross wind.
"A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.
https://twitter.com/SpaceXOfficiall/status/1590918313265098752
Absolute bin fire.
The One Race That Shows How Democrats Beat the Red Wave
The Michigan Democrat had been targeted by the GOP, but she beat them by stealing away some of their own weary voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/11/elissa-slotkin-michigan-election-00066278
Trying to get some joyful growth in the economy and then people's pockets quickly was why Truss and Kwateng did their mad, lousy odds, hospital pass gamble, but that has left things even worse than before.
He signed a bill banning sanctuary cities in Florida to look tough on immigration. There are no sanctuary cities in Florida, however.
He supports hiring military veterans to act as armed guards at schools. He wants to expand Florida’s stand-your-ground rules to allow members of the public to shoot looters dead.
He’s gone around suggesting the solution to COVID isn’t masks but monoclonal antibody treatment… oh, yes, and one of his main political donors makes one of those monoclonal antibody treatments. He appointed a COVID conspiracist as the state’s Surgeon General.
He was part of those stunts, probably illegal, to fly asylum seekers to Blue states and dump them there.
He’s said some complete nonsense about slavery in attempts to bad schools and universities saying things he doesn’t like.
"We are so nuke crazy, we detonate a nuke above us, in space, every 10 minutes. To generate power. Imagine that we don't like someone or something - just think what we might do?"
Talk about the Madman's Checkers version of nuclear deterence.
https://web.archive.org/web/20200221061108/http://larvatus.com/michael-crichton-why-speculate/
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
Republican lead fallen from 15812 with 83.03% reported to 8988 with 90.2% reported.
That seems very close to Dems running out of votes to catch up especially if there are lots of spoilt ballots or whatever other reasons why 90.2% might be slightly understated (number of votes usually ends up being less than the number suggested by the votes reported calculation, right?).
Am I missing something or is 1.07 to 1.08 digital odds for dem win surprisingly low?
The guy projects massively. He smears his opponents to neutralise his own less than desirable characteristics. What the GOP candidates in 2016 failed to do was fight fire with fire. Trump has all his fans because they think he’s strong and witty and calls people out on their personal qualities and failings. People running against him need to feel more confident about directly addressing his.
It is still amazing to me that Wiki remains free and ad-free. I wonder if that will continue indefinitely.
Very true though, isn't it? And I'm surely guilty on this.
It led to the deep study of EMP effects - which turn out to be problematic, but survivable.
Essentially, it's bad, but not the end of the world.