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Trump still rated as a 36% chance for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273
    ohnotnow said:

    Selebian said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Selebian said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Another slightly strange article suggesting Russia is preparing an “electro magnetic pulse explosion” (probably nuclear but not necessarily) to paralyse Ukrainian advances. There was a similar article in the FT earlier this week


    “How Russia could use electromagnetic pulse weapon to cripple Ukraine”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/846f4044-610f-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=dbfd394d96c9ed68fa8287c15b137fbd

    Scare mongering nonsense? Genuine fear?

    It certainly looks like Russia is surrendering Kherson, which is a huge defeat. If Putin accepts this without any attempt at revenge - or is simply unable to respond - his regime must be in danger

    Putin remains highly unlikely to use a nuke.
    Calling it an EMP weapon doesn't change that.
    Perhaps; however:


    A weapon that nobody can tell if it's been used or not doesn't sound THAT scary.
    The FT (££) has a deliciously different take

    “A tactical nuclear weapon used to create an explosion would most likely be ineffective against the mobile, dispersed combination of guerrilla and conventional warfare that Ukrainians are deploying to reclaim their territory.

    “But the use of a nuclear weapon for electromagnetic warfare is a different matter. The signature of this type of attack would not be a fireball and mushroom cloud but a weird electric blue medusa orb pulsing directly overhead, followed by silence. At that altitude, the sound will not carry.”

    Call me Sergeant Major Super-Observant, but I’d definitely notice a huge “weird electric blue Medusa orb pulsing directly over London” followed by total eerie silence and the failure of every electronic device in south east England
    They're talking about the nuke for EMP, which would have a hugely detrimental effect but it's still a nuke which we now know Putin isn't going to go for or is unable to convince the military chain of command to use (see the Kherson retreat with no nuclear retaliation). You have posted about a non-nuke EMP which can cover a tiny area of ground and would be useless on the battlefield.
    I’m merely noting that this is now two rather strange, indeed quirky articles in two days about EMP use in Ukraine

    The FT, then the Times



    What does it mean? No idea. Could be western psy-ops, warning Putin we’re watching him

    Something is definitely up in Kherson. Russia is abandoning the city with barely a fight. Their biggest prize. Why? This is either imminent defeat - ie they have no choice - or they expect some kind of ceasefire soon. Or maybe all strategic coherence has broken down and no one, not even Putin, is really in charge
    This is a direct consequence of being unable to supply them - as are the previous defeats. Which is entirely down to UKR artillery strategy, and battlefield manoeuvre to get those artillery pieces in the right places to maximize effect. (And, of course, NATO supply of those weapons.)

    The reason this one is *such* a disaster is the fact that Kerson was seen as a hugely symbolic prize, and so troops were thrown into an impossible position and ordered to stay there.

    The EMP stuff is pure clickbait puff (of a kind you don't normally see in the FT, but no-one is immune). Fair play to them, they've got someone to provide an opinion piece with a slightly different take on the topic of the day.
    The FT has some very poor articles - one, which dealt with a company I worked for, managed to make a fundamental mistake in each of the three sentences. Which were miscopied from a press release!
    Selebian's law of journalism:
    "Never read mainstream news articles on a topic you know a lot about. It will only vex you."
    Reminds me of this Michael Crichton piece :

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200221061108/http://larvatus.com/michael-crichton-why-speculate/

    "Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.

    In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
    Ah yes, I'd clearly forgotten the Amnesia effect :wink:

    Very true though, isn't it? And I'm surely guilty on this.
    Yeah - I sometimes even find myself musing on it while I'm reading something, then forget that I've remembered it when I read the next thing. Quite a powerful effect.
    What is?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    This is regularly an issue in Ireland where a lot of wind electricity is being lost for lack of storage. Not sure if there is some constraint in their electricity market which is preventing storage being deployed. They only recently started paying residential customers for excess rooftop solar feed into the grid, so it's possible there's a silly rule getting in the way.

    This chart shows a lot of wind was lost overnight.
    https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind

  • Is there any value in backing the House band for 220-229 republican seats on Betfair at 1.4?

    How likely that they slip into 218-219 seats? Lower than 33% surely?
  • Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ron Desanctamonious

    wRONg DeSantis. It's right there. I am genuinely disappointed in Trump.
    Being 'wrong' doesn't highlight a personal deficiency of Ron Desantis. I don't know enough about him to know whether he's sanctimonious and whether this perception puts people off him, but that must be what Trump thinks.
    Its a very lame attack. GOP religious voters might find "sanctimonious" (but on their side) to be a positive not a negative.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    Alistair said:
    Well it's got the blue tick so I believe it
    Parody account
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited November 2022
    Re. the meme of "the Russians are leaving Kherson but maybe they're up to something", there is HUGE history in Ukraine for leaving cities but mining them to hell before leaving.

    This includes both boobytraps and the use of radiocontrolled triggers.

    The Nazis said the rounding up of Jews in Kiev and the massacre of tens of thousands at Babi Yar in late 1941 was in retaliation for such explosions in Kiev in which ~1000 German soldiers died.

    Some cities in Ukraine and small towns too changed hands several times during WW2.

    If anyone is interested in the Makhnovshchina, the town of Gulyai Pole in Zaporozhye had earlier changed hands a very large number of times during the civil war. Gulyai Pole was Nestor Makhno's birthplace and the centre of the Makhnovist movement to the extent that it had a centre.

    So..."be wary when the enemy leaves a town they used to hold" is a big thing in Ukraine - that's my point.
  • kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    It certainly looks like it will be a bitter and long nomination battle between Trump and De Santis in 2024

    Nah, DeSantis will bottle it. Young man, plenty of time etc.
    I don't think so. This is his moment. Probably won't get another chance.
    His supporters were chanting 2 more years after his victory. They have little doubt that he is going for the White House in 2024. It would be difficult and unwise to back down from that. The GOP needs a saviour to protect itself from Trump and he is now in pole position.
    I'd be amazed if he doesn't go for it. The prize is massive and the chance might not come again. Also the notion of letting Trump have it this time and waiting for a later day is crazy because nobody knows what "After Trump" is going to look like. Could be scorched earth and little else.
    You don't turn down the chance at the White House.

    Not a chance he doesn't run.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,993

    Is there any value in backing the House band for 220-229 republican seats on Betfair at 1.4?

    How likely that they slip into 218-219 seats? Lower than 33% surely?

    What is the chance the Dems win the House back via special elections?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Yes. Depends on the wind turbine and how it's designed.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Yes. Depends on the wind turbine and how it's designed.
    And what sort of windspeed is that? Above what level of windiness can we stop cheering our electricity production - 20mph? 50mph?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    It certainly looks like it will be a bitter and long nomination battle between Trump and De Santis in 2024

    Nah, DeSantis will bottle it. Young man, plenty of time etc.
    I don't think so. This is his moment. Probably won't get another chance.
    His supporters were chanting 2 more years after his victory. They have little doubt that he is going for the White House in 2024. It would be difficult and unwise to back down from that. The GOP needs a saviour to protect itself from Trump and he is now in pole position.
    I'd be amazed if he doesn't go for it. The prize is massive and the chance might not come again. Also the notion of letting Trump have it this time and waiting for a later day is crazy because nobody knows what "After Trump" is going to look like. Could be scorched earth and little else.
    You don't turn down the chance at the White House.

    Not a chance he doesn't run.
    It is quite a pricey thing to do as a hobby though.That might deter him if he rhinks his chances are slim.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    That’s not the same as installed, economic generating capacity.

    For a full explanation:

    https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i384/wrong_with_the_wind.aspx


    interesting that - for all the fuss and mud-slinging at @These_Islands that has resulted from this report - not one person has come close to defending the 25% figure which the SNP-led Scottish Government has been relentlessly using

    not. one. person


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1590825874911559682
    Apart from Ishmael, just now. 😏

    Memo to self: do not make jokes on PB.
    Don't worry. No-one has ever made a joke on PB and got away with it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    Ah - so medium winds better than very high winds then. Frustrating.
    No doubt if there are more efficient ways of capturing the wind they will be unearthed - the technology is still relatively young.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited November 2022

    Is there any value in backing the House band for 220-229 republican seats on Betfair at 1.4?

    How likely that they slip into 218-219 seats? Lower than 33% surely?

    I make it that they are currently leading in 11 of the 26 outstanding races, which would get us to a 222-213 outcome (amusingly, a reverse of 2020).

    There are at least 5 of those races where the GOP leads but the lead is squeaky-narrow.

    It is not inconceivable that we could be looking at something like a 218-217 House in favour of the GOP but I agree the chances are probably pretty low. It requires all the tight races where Democrats are leading to also fall into their column.

    There is a crazy-bonkers path to a 218-217 Democratic House, but I think it relies simply too much on absolutely everything going right for them to be a conceivable outcome.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    I see Hunt again talking about bearing down on inflation. Fine. But apart from taking tough decisions can we also hear a bit more about smart decisions. Gas prices have been rising again. Are we doing a deal with the US for LNG? What is the policy other than subsidising prices for 6 months. I was a little annoyed walking past a chain restaurant to see they has their front door wide open. Is there any serious conservation effort going on?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ron Desanctamonious

    wRONg DeSantis. It's right there. I am genuinely disappointed in Trump.
    Being 'wrong' doesn't highlight a personal deficiency of Ron Desantis. I don't know enough about him to know whether he's sanctimonious and whether this perception puts people off him, but that must be what Trump thinks.
    Its a very lame attack. GOP religious voters might find "sanctimonious" (but on their side) to be a positive not a negative.
    No they wouldn't. Sanctimonious doesn't have an ambiguous meaning due to a previous positive etymology like 'pious'. It has always meant being hypocritical and 'holier than thou'.

    Not saying it's not a lame attack - don't know enough about the circumstances. It's mildly amusing as a play on words.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    crandles said:

    Nevada Senate race
    Republican lead fallen from 15812 with 83.03% reported to 8988 with 90.2% reported.

    That seems very close to Dems running out of votes to catch up especially if there are lots of spoilt ballots or whatever other reasons why 90.2% might be slightly understated (number of votes usually ends up being less than the number suggested by the votes reported calculation, right?).

    Am I missing something or is 1.07 to 1.08 digital odds for dem win surprisingly low?

    There are approx 25k-30k votes left in Washoe
    In the two previous updates from Washoe Masto split thos ballots 60-35.
    So taking the low end she gets 6250 votes from Washoe alone.

    There are 6-7k votes in Douglas. Let's assume that LAxalt wins that in line with current votes 65/31 that gets him 2380 votes.

    So Washoe - Douglas leaves CCM up 3870.

    So she would then need to get 6608 from Clark.

    On a 60-35 split (which is worse that what MAsto has got from previous Clark releases) that would need only 30,000 votes outstanding in Clark to take it by ~1000 votes. There are more than 30,000 votes outstanding in Clark.

    The only thing that saves Laxalt is:
    More hidden Rurals, there are potentially some in Carson City but CCM actually won the last mail update from there.
    The Douglas split going way more in Laxalt favour (hugely unlikely).
    The Clark vote counters having fucked up and there being less ballots outstanding than they said.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited November 2022

    I see Hunt again talking about bearing down on inflation. Fine. But apart from taking tough decisions can we also hear a bit more about smart decisions. Gas prices have been rising again. Are we doing a deal with the US for LNG? What is the policy other than subsidising prices for 6 months. I was a little annoyed walking past a chain restaurant to see they has their front door wide open. Is there any serious conservation effort going on?

    Has there been any analysis of corporate profits in the UK?

    Obviously the chief drivers of inflation have been global food/energy prices, and the labour shortage.

    But corporate profiteering has also been fingered in the US, with some justification.

    Hunt can talk about inflation, but as you say, what really (apart from questionable fiscal retrenchment) is he actually doing about it?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ron Desanctamonious

    wRONg DeSantis. It's right there. I am genuinely disappointed in Trump.
    Being 'wrong' doesn't highlight a personal deficiency of Ron Desantis. I don't know enough about him to know whether he's sanctimonious and whether this perception puts people off him, but that must be what Trump thinks.
    Its a very lame attack. GOP religious voters might find "sanctimonious" (but on their side) to be a positive not a negative.
    No they wouldn't. Sanctimonious doesn't have an ambiguous meaning due to a previous positive etymology like 'pious'. It has always meant being hypocritical and 'holier than thou'.

    Not saying it's not a lame attack - don't know enough about the circumstances. It's mildly amusing as a play on words.
    By the way, I'd like RDS to win the nomination over Trump - he seems not to have the personality issues that Trump undoubtedly has. I also have a bet on him. I'm not defending Trump's attack due to any political leanings, I just speak as I find as usual.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Off topic: Just had to go through the faff of placing an order with Amazon. What a PITA. Must have been offer Prime about 6 times, and trying to find the button to click for free delivery had me baffled for about 5 minutes.

    The Ryanair of online retail.
  • Is there any value in backing the House band for 220-229 republican seats on Betfair at 1.4?

    How likely that they slip into 218-219 seats? Lower than 33% surely?

    No that's not a good bet.

    Looking at 538 there are 20 House seats left to call. The Republicans have 211, the Democrats 204, with 218 needed for a majority.

    So you are betting that the Republicans will pick up at least 9 of those 20.

    I think the Dems are up in 9 or so of the remainder, the Reps in 8, and 3 are literally 50% v 50%. The margins are very close in all but a handful. The votes counted late tend to include votes trickling in by post, or provisional ballots subject to verification checks, which tend to favour the Democrats, votes cast on polling day tending to favour Republicans. Although that's not always the case, quite a few uncalled seats are in California where it is.

    I think it is still in the balance whether the Republicans even get a majority in the House and that they are more likely than not to end up with less than 220.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,395
    Slightly off topic: Kamski - I hope you are able to go to the Seahawks game this Sunday. (As I am sure you know, they don't play in Germany every year.)

  • IanB2 said:

    Republican strategist Sarah Longwell: "There is a real risk. You can't, analytically, not understand that there is a risk to Ron DeSantis' career and anybody's career who goes toe to toe with this guy. Trump is not out to beat you. He is out to scorched-earth humiliate you and your career. He will say that your dad murdered JFK and call your wife ugly. He is the worst person in politics. If you are younger, like Ron DeSantis, do you just wait it out for four years or do you risk that?"

    "A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.

    The way to handle Trump (certainly if running against him on the right) is probably to descend to his level (sadly).

    The guy projects massively. He smears his opponents to neutralise his own less than desirable characteristics. What the GOP candidates in 2016 failed to do was fight fire with fire. Trump has all his fans because they think he’s strong and witty and calls people out on their personal qualities and failings. People running against him need to feel more confident about directly addressing his.

    DeSantis could quite convincingly call him 'Loser Donny' or similar, that would send Trump mad - but it may alienate Trump's base which DeSantis would need.
    I think that 2024 may be the time to lay Republicans, there could be a civil war in that party.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,848


    IanB2 said:

    Republican strategist Sarah Longwell: "There is a real risk. You can't, analytically, not understand that there is a risk to Ron DeSantis' career and anybody's career who goes toe to toe with this guy. Trump is not out to beat you. He is out to scorched-earth humiliate you and your career. He will say that your dad murdered JFK and call your wife ugly. He is the worst person in politics. If you are younger, like Ron DeSantis, do you just wait it out for four years or do you risk that?"

    "A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.

    The way to handle Trump (certainly if running against him on the right) is probably to descend to his level (sadly).

    The guy projects massively. He smears his opponents to neutralise his own less than desirable characteristics. What the GOP candidates in 2016 failed to do was fight fire with fire. Trump has all his fans because they think he’s strong and witty and calls people out on their personal qualities and failings. People running against him need to feel more confident about directly addressing his.
    Surprising to me that "pussygrab" and the palpable misogyny around him hasn't killed him off before now. Although it sort of finally has - because he can't now score enough female votes to be a viable contender for the WH. Women are the firewall. In this they truly are the fairer sex.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Yes. Depends on the wind turbine and how it's designed.
    And what sort of windspeed is that? Above what level of windiness can we stop cheering our electricity production - 20mph? 50mph?
    I'm not sure whether, say, a greater degree of gustiness is more problematic than a higher mean wind speed. However, most of the time when a new wind generation forecast has been set it's been when a storm has gone by.

    So, although peak winds in small areas might be so strong they have to shut turbines down to protect them, in general the optimally strong winds cover a much larger area.

    I'd say to stop cheering the wind when it's strong enough to bring down electricity pylons. Not much use wind turbines producing electricity in the North Sea if the grid has been blown over so it can't be delivered to your house. So a Met Office red wind warning is too much wind, but most of the time an amber warning is okay.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited November 2022
    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1590956804854497281

    Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    NEW. Britain's Reform Party hits highest ever support in polls of 8% --more than enough to cost Sunak & Cons the next election. Has close to 1 in 8 of Boris Johnson's 2019 voters

    Lab 42% (-5)
    Con 21% (-)
    LibDem 9% (-1)
    Green 9% (+2)
    Reform 8% (+3)
    SNP 5% (-)

    @PeoplePolling
    Nov9

    Goodwin 1. owns/controls People Polling and 2. has a right wing agenda the size of my manhood. But PP is BPC.

    PeoplePolling has very high figures for the minor parties compared to the other pollsters.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    I see Hunt again talking about bearing down on inflation. Fine. But apart from taking tough decisions can we also hear a bit more about smart decisions. Gas prices have been rising again. Are we doing a deal with the US for LNG? What is the policy other than subsidising prices for 6 months. I was a little annoyed walking past a chain restaurant to see they has their front door wide open. Is there any serious conservation effort going on?

    Has there been any analysis of corporate profits in the UK?

    Obviously the chief drivers of inflation have been global food/energy prices, and the labour shortage.

    But corporate profiteering has also been fingered in the US, with some justification.

    Hunt can talk about inflation, but as you say, what really (apart from questionable fiscal retrenchment) is he actually doing about it?
    Wage growth is reasonable, no?

    How would profiteering work. You would expect companies to be getting undercut if there isn't some kind of price competition.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
    Tired of you saying that because it's cobblers.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    Off topic: Just had to go through the faff of placing an order with Amazon. What a PITA. Must have been offer Prime about 6 times, and trying to find the button to click for free delivery had me baffled for about 5 minutes.

    The Ryanair of online retail.

    If you have Prime then it is really easy. Dangerously easy.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    edited November 2022
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Almost 10k Clark ballots in need of curing. This is where ground game actually becomes important.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    I see Hunt again talking about bearing down on inflation. Fine. But apart from taking tough decisions can we also hear a bit more about smart decisions. Gas prices have been rising again. Are we doing a deal with the US for LNG? What is the policy other than subsidising prices for 6 months. I was a little annoyed walking past a chain restaurant to see they has their front door wide open. Is there any serious conservation effort going on?

    Has there been any analysis of corporate profits in the UK?

    Obviously the chief drivers of inflation have been global food/energy prices, and the labour shortage.

    But corporate profiteering has also been fingered in the US, with some justification.

    Hunt can talk about inflation, but as you say, what really (apart from questionable fiscal retrenchment) is he actually doing about it?
    Perhaps more importantly, what is the plan for growing the economy? To mix a metaphor, there has been a flood of kite flying from the Treasury about non-doms, income tax, capital gains tax, benefit freezes, pensions etc. - all with the sole aim of grabbing more money to 'fill the hole'. The obvious issue being that if the economy takes a nosedive, the hole will expand. If on the other hand, the economy grows, tax revenues increase sharply and the hole shrinks. The main focus therefore must surely be growth, and that's what we're hearing nothing about from Sunak and Hunt's team as they instead search for ever more creative ways of taking more of peoples' money.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Definitely what DeSantis wants now is for the Florida super majority GOP legislature to push for a 6-week abortion ban.

    https://twitter.com/anaceballos_/status/1591048770187235328
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,151

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Yes. Depends on the wind turbine and how it's designed.
    And what sort of windspeed is that? Above what level of windiness can we stop cheering our electricity production - 20mph? 50mph?
    I'm not sure whether, say, a greater degree of gustiness is more problematic than a higher mean wind speed. However, most of the time when a new wind generation forecast has been set it's been when a storm has gone by.

    So, although peak winds in small areas might be so strong they have to shut turbines down to protect them, in general the optimally strong winds cover a much larger area.

    I'd say to stop cheering the wind when it's strong enough to bring down electricity pylons. Not much use wind turbines producing electricity in the North Sea if the grid has been blown over so it can't be delivered to your house. So a Met Office red wind warning is too much wind, but most of the time an amber warning is okay.
    Yes, speed x coverage seems to be the secret. I keep an eye on the model forecasts and when we have a broad area of tight isobars and highish winds all the way from Scotland to the SE, that’s when we get the highest generation.

    We’re generating a handy 1.4gw of Solar energy currently too. Not bad for November.
  • Is there any value in backing the House band for 220-229 republican seats on Betfair at 1.4?

    How likely that they slip into 218-219 seats? Lower than 33% surely?

    No that's not a good bet.

    Looking at 538 there are 20 House seats left to call. The Republicans have 211, the Democrats 204, with 218 needed for a majority.

    So you are betting that the Republicans will pick up at least 9 of those 20.

    I think the Dems are up in 9 or so of the remainder, the Reps in 8, and 3 are literally 50% v 50%. The margins are very close in all but a handful. The votes counted late tend to include votes trickling in by post, or provisional ballots subject to verification checks, which tend to favour the Democrats, votes cast on polling day tending to favour Republicans. Although that's not always the case, quite a few uncalled seats are in California where it is.

    I think it is still in the balance whether the Republicans even get a majority in the House and that they are more likely than not to end up with less than 220.
    Interesting, I think we are both seeing things slightly differently in that I think they’ll probably just breach 220 but not much further
    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
    I may be a bit behind the curve, not being a regular user of Twitter, but certainly in my experience if I see the blue tick, I don’t question that the source is the legitimate person/company/what-have-you.

    Surely the utility of the platform is significantly weakened if that system breaks down, because the reliability of the information is questionable. And in turn that will put off those in the media who use it as a reporting tool.

    There surely has to be a chance (though still slight) that if they don’t get on top of this, Twitter could be the first big social media casualty since MySpace.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Alistair said:

    Almost 10k Clark ballots in need of curing. This is where ground game actually becomes important.

    "Curing"?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,848


    IanB2 said:

    Republican strategist Sarah Longwell: "There is a real risk. You can't, analytically, not understand that there is a risk to Ron DeSantis' career and anybody's career who goes toe to toe with this guy. Trump is not out to beat you. He is out to scorched-earth humiliate you and your career. He will say that your dad murdered JFK and call your wife ugly. He is the worst person in politics. If you are younger, like Ron DeSantis, do you just wait it out for four years or do you risk that?"

    "A lot of that comes out of whether or not Ron DeSantis is a good enough politician, and genuinely believes he's a good enough politician, to handle that," added Longwell.

    The way to handle Trump (certainly if running against him on the right) is probably to descend to his level (sadly).

    The guy projects massively. He smears his opponents to neutralise his own less than desirable characteristics. What the GOP candidates in 2016 failed to do was fight fire with fire. Trump has all his fans because they think he’s strong and witty and calls people out on their personal qualities and failings. People running against him need to feel more confident about directly addressing his.

    DeSantis could quite convincingly call him 'Loser Donny' or similar, that would send Trump mad - but it may alienate Trump's base which DeSantis would need.
    I think that 2024 may be the time to lay Republicans, there could be a civil war in that party.
    Yes, he's a bunny boiler. If they think he's going to let them live happily ever after with a new man they're mistaken. Their own fault for letting him into their life in the first place. Should have taken a pass. Or at least dumped him when it became obvious he was unhinged and a bucketload of trouble. Dems at 2.5 in 24 is worth a look imo.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    What is very conspicuous is that Putin is nowhere near any reports of the retreat from Kherson. It is all put down to the military.

    🧵 Unsurprisingly, Russian state TV news bulletins this afternoon make no mention of the Ukrainian advance in Kherson. But channels are reporting the MOD’s earlier statement that said the military has completed what it called a ‘re-deployment’ of forces (that is, a retreat). 🧵👇
    https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1591070077071216640
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited November 2022
    Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Almost 10k Clark ballots in need of curing. This is where ground game actually becomes important.

    "Curing"?
    I think it’s when the voter hasn’t provided the necessary ID/information on their ballot or has filled it out incorrectly. The ballot still stands so long as the voter comes forward and provides the info.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,151
    Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Almost 10k Clark ballots in need of curing. This is where ground game actually becomes important.

    "Curing"?
    Raw ballots can be bitter and unpalatable. They need a few weeks in salt and a bit of sugar to soften up and mellow.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    It took the Kings of England, and later Britain, almost 350 years to renounce their claim to the French throne after defeat in the Hundred Years War. How long until the Russians renounce their claim to Kherson?

    The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️ Peskov says 'Kherson remains Russian' as Ukrainian forces enter city.

    Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia continues to consider Kherson its territory, despite the withdrawal of its troops from the city, according to Russian state-controlled news agency TASS.


    https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1591070909552807940
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,151
    AlistairM said:

    What is very conspicuous is that Putin is nowhere near any reports of the retreat from Kherson. It is all put down to the military.

    🧵 Unsurprisingly, Russian state TV news bulletins this afternoon make no mention of the Ukrainian advance in Kherson. But channels are reporting the MOD’s earlier statement that said the military has completed what it called a ‘re-deployment’ of forces (that is, a retreat). 🧵👇
    https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1591070077071216640

    In British political language I think we call it a u-turn. Russians have made a few u-turns since launching their Kwarteng adventure in February,
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Almost 10k Clark ballots in need of curing. This is where ground game actually becomes important.

    "Curing"?
    I think it’s when the voter hasn’t provided the necessary ID/information on their ballot or has filled it out incorrectly. The ballot still stands so long as the voter comes forward and provides the info.
    After the close of polls? Did they design that process deliberately to make people doubt it?
  • Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
    It certainly limits what Twitter can be. An entertainment platform, sure blue ticks are not important. Rolling live news, including market sensitive information, then they are key.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,254
    Taz said:
    Hmm, blue tick. Real or $8? :wink:

    Seriously though, this could cause all sorts of fun* fake news - as journalists take tweets at face value and report. They shouldn't, of course, but I'm sure they will, for a time at least.

    *not fun
  • Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
    It certainly limits what Twitter can be. An entertainment platform, sure blue ticks are not important. Rolling live news, including market sensitive information, then they are key.
    The other thing is that if organisations don’t feel it is a successful way of communicating their message, because people doubt the verification, then at what point does it become more hassle than it’s worth to keep a presence on there.

    If the big media houses and corporations quit, Twitter is in trouble.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,395
    In 2016, I wondered why Democrats didn't run a series of ads showing Trump victims, contractors he'd cheated, victims of Trump University, et cetera, et cetera. This isn't a novel idea; they used something similar against Romney in 2012, though the ad was, I believe, deceptive.

    Or, now, ads showing his followers who have been convicted.

    Following Trump can be bad for your wealth, your health, and even your freedom. It shouldn't be hard to explain those facts to voters
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    edited November 2022

    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
    I may be a bit behind the curve, not being a regular user of Twitter, but certainly in my experience if I see the blue tick, I don’t question that the source is the legitimate person/company/what-have-you.

    Surely the utility of the platform is significantly weakened if that system breaks down, because the reliability of the information is questionable. And in turn that will put off those in the media who use it as a reporting tool.

    There surely has to be a chance (though still slight) that if they don’t get on top of this, Twitter could be the first big social media casualty since MySpace.
    So... the media using it as a reporting tool is what drives revenue? And them deserting the platform will cause it to collapse?

    Even if that did eventually happen - and I am very unconvinced it will - I don't see why it matters right now.
  • Selebian said:

    Taz said:
    Hmm, blue tick. Real or $8? :wink:

    Seriously though, this could cause all sorts of fun* fake news - as journalists take tweets at face value and report. They shouldn't, of course, but I'm sure they will, for a time at least.

    *not fun
    Just a matter of time surely before "Meta" announces the acquisition of Zoom, or something, at 30% more than their current share price.

    World's easiest pump and dump.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    It sounds like the news of this calamity is spreading and there is a rout happening with troops across the region who don't fancy being the next concentrations to be left in the grinder. Reports of units fleeing all over the shop.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Almost 10k Clark ballots in need of curing. This is where ground game actually becomes important.

    "Curing"?
    It sounds strange, but it just refers to the removal of any Democratic elements by chemical means. Like with bacon.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
    That may be one aspect of it, but from my limited knowledge, it's more to do with the stresses excess winds put on the blades, gearing and generator. Whilst some turbines have gears (to convert the blades' rotation to an ideal faster speed for the generator), it is fixed-ratio and not variable gearing - i.e. you cannot change from gear 1 to gear 2. This means that when the wind speeds are low, the turbine is very inefficient. It also means that when wind speeds are high, the blades can overspeed and the mechanism can be damaged. For instance, you do not want the blade tip speed reaching the speed of sound, which is surprisingly easy with rotors many tens of metres in diameter. So in high winds, they feather the blades.

    Then there are direct-drive turbines with no gearing, which are inefficient as the generator does not work as well, as it wants a fast input shaft rotation speed.

    ISTR a Dutch company was attempting a variable gearbox on a turbine a few years back, but there are issues in that they are much more complex, and doing anything more than routine maintenance on a turbine many tens of metres above the ground is difficult.

    (IANAE, etc, etc)
  • Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Almost 10k Clark ballots in need of curing. This is where ground game actually becomes important.

    "Curing"?
    I think it’s when the voter hasn’t provided the necessary ID/information on their ballot or has filled it out incorrectly. The ballot still stands so long as the voter comes forward and provides the info.
    After the close of polls? Did they design that process deliberately to make people doubt it?
    Yes, after close of polls.

    I do understand the utility of it, in a system much more complicated than ours. If you’re obliged to jump through so many hoops to cast your vote, if something procedurally wrong is done then at least you get a chance to register your vote rather than being disenfranchised. But in an ideal world the system wouldn’t be as complex or as demanding on a voter to the point where such a system were needed.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Selebian said:

    Taz said:
    Hmm, blue tick. Real or $8? :wink:

    Seriously though, this could cause all sorts of fun* fake news - as journalists take tweets at face value and report. They shouldn't, of course, but I'm sure they will, for a time at least.

    *not fun
    Even before recent shenanigans I'd have preferred a tweet like that to also include a link to the press release on their website, as an additional degree of verification.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,612

    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
    It certainly limits what Twitter can be. An entertainment platform, sure blue ticks are not important. Rolling live news, including market sensitive information, then they are key.
    The logical move is to use existing verification methods as in finance - see the alt-banks. Online scans of your passport/ID/credit cards linking to a fixed name. If it's good enough for the finance regulators....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2022
    Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Almost 10k Clark ballots in need of curing. This is where ground game actually becomes important.

    "Curing"?
    Mail ballots that have an issue (mostly bad signature) that can be fixed by the voter coming down to the vote centre and being verified.

    Nevada Dems use the local union workers to turnout voters and get them to the voting centre to fix the ballots.
  • Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
    It certainly limits what Twitter can be. An entertainment platform, sure blue ticks are not important. Rolling live news, including market sensitive information, then they are key.
    The logical move is to use existing verification methods as in finance - see the alt-banks. Online scans of your passport/ID/credit cards linking to a fixed name. If it's good enough for the finance regulators....
    I'm sure someone like Musk would be quite above misusing everyones govt ID and bank information......
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    It took the Kings of England, and later Britain, almost 350 years to renounce their claim to the French throne after defeat in the Hundred Years War. How long until the Russians renounce their claim to Kherson?

    The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️ Peskov says 'Kherson remains Russian' as Ukrainian forces enter city.

    Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia continues to consider Kherson its territory, despite the withdrawal of its troops from the city, according to Russian state-controlled news agency TASS.


    https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1591070909552807940

    Who says we've renounced our claim to France?
  • Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
    I may be a bit behind the curve, not being a regular user of Twitter, but certainly in my experience if I see the blue tick, I don’t question that the source is the legitimate person/company/what-have-you.

    Surely the utility of the platform is significantly weakened if that system breaks down, because the reliability of the information is questionable. And in turn that will put off those in the media who use it as a reporting tool.

    There surely has to be a chance (though still slight) that if they don’t get on top of this, Twitter could be the first big social media casualty since MySpace.
    So... the media using it as a reporting tool is what drives revenue? And them deserting the platform will cause it to collapse?

    Even if that did eventually happen - and I am very unconvinced it will - I don't see why it matters right now.
    Certainly one of the big things that drives Twitter is the fact it is a quick direct line to news and developments about people and organisations. That surely drives a significant chunk of its traffic, not the people who use it to have a debate (there are better platforms out there for that).

    If traffic collapses, revenue collapses and value collapses.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Channel deal incoming?

    UK 🤝 France
    https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1591076838486458370
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,254
    Alistair said:

    Driver said:

    Alistair said:

    Almost 10k Clark ballots in need of curing. This is where ground game actually becomes important.

    "Curing"?
    Mail ballots that have an issue (mostly bad signature) that can be fixed by the voter coming down to the vote centre and being verified.

    Nevada Dems use the local union workers to turnout voters and get them to the voting centre to fix the ballots.
    And 'curing' is a slightly more palatable term than 'ballot fixing' :wink:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    In a day of remarkable developments that should ensure the defenestration of Putin, this is perhaps the most disastrous for him:

    "The European Union has replaced most of the Russian gas with LNG imports-The European Commission"

    https://twitter.com/LWNChannel/status/1591076555341860864
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    In 2016, I wondered why Democrats didn't run a series of ads showing Trump victims, contractors he'd cheated, victims of Trump University, et cetera, et cetera. This isn't a novel idea; they used something similar against Romney in 2012, though the ad was, I believe, deceptive.

    They did, there were a bunch of them:

    https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/morning_roundup/2016/07/clinton-ad-features-trump-taj-mahal-worker-donald.html

    They were apparently pretty persuasive in focus group testing but they couldn't get them infront of the right eyes and people were sceptical of them because "The news wasn't saying anything about Trump stiffing contractors"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,612

    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
    It certainly limits what Twitter can be. An entertainment platform, sure blue ticks are not important. Rolling live news, including market sensitive information, then they are key.
    The logical move is to use existing verification methods as in finance - see the alt-banks. Online scans of your passport/ID/credit cards linking to a fixed name. If it's good enough for the finance regulators....
    I'm sure someone like Musk would be quite above misusing everyones govt ID and bank information......
    If you are paying $8 a month, they already have a verified credit card, I presume.

    Lock the verified name to the name on the credit card. Change it and you lose the blue tick.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited November 2022
    Off-topic: I hope Smarkets win a big chunk of market share from Betfair before the 2024 USPE. As well as delaying paying out my winnings on Biden for ages in 2020 until the last MAGA nut in Viking headwear and waving a Confederacy flag was safely in custody, BF also recently slashed my deposit limit by more than 95% without telling me, won't acknowledge what they did, and won't reinstall it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1590956804854497281

    Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    NEW. Britain's Reform Party hits highest ever support in polls of 8% --more than enough to cost Sunak & Cons the next election. Has close to 1 in 8 of Boris Johnson's 2019 voters

    Lab 42% (-5)
    Con 21% (-)
    LibDem 9% (-1)
    Green 9% (+2)
    Reform 8% (+3)
    SNP 5% (-)

    @PeoplePolling
    Nov9

    Goodwin 1. owns/controls People Polling and 2. has a right wing agenda the size of my manhood. But PP is BPC.

    So the Sunak bounce took the Tories to exactly half as much support as Labour?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    New Coke, but less nutritious.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,702
    Selebian said:

    Taz said:
    Hmm, blue tick. Real or $8? :wink:

    Seriously though, this could cause all sorts of fun* fake news - as journalists take tweets at face value and report. They shouldn't, of course, but I'm sure they will, for a time at least.

    *not fun
    Yeah, these are genuine. The feed was bragging about its new offices last week.

    Either that or a lot of media outlets have also been duped 😂
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,702

    In a day of remarkable developments that should ensure the defenestration of Putin, this is perhaps the most disastrous for him:

    "The European Union has replaced most of the Russian gas with LNG imports-The European Commission"

    https://twitter.com/LWNChannel/status/1591076555341860864

    Next winter will be the problem, not this one.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
    Tired of you saying that because it's cobblers.
    No, it's not cobblers, it's easily verifiable fact.

    https://www.ref.org.uk/ref-blog/354-a-decade-of-constraint-payments

    "Wind farm owners charge more per unit to reduce output than they earn through generating. For wind farms subsidised under the Renewables Obligation (RO) the income foregone when instructed to reduce output is the value of the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROC). Typically, wind farms ask to be paid much more than the lost income, and in the early days of wind farm constraint payments, the premiums charged for not generating were very high indeed. For example, in 2011, Crystal Rig 2 charged £991 per MWh to reduce output compared to the value of the ROC at that time of £42 per MWh. Kilbraur, Millennium, Farr, An Suidhe were charging between £200 to £320 per MWh constrained-off in 2011.!

    This was regarded as an abuse of market power, and the Government introduced the Transmission Constraint Licence Condition (TCLC) in 2012, which sought to prevent excessive bid prices in the event of a constraint. While there can be no doubt that the TCLC resulted in a reduction in prices, they are still well in excess of the subsidy foregone in 2019

    ...Assuming the 2019 ROC value will be approximately £55, these wind farms would receive £49 per MWh if generating but ask for and receive £96-£98 per MWh not to generate and thus get a premium of £47–£49 above the subsidy when constrained off. The five wind farms with the lowest constraint prices are older wind farms which receive 1 ROC per MWh. In 2019, they were setting constraint prices of £64-£69 per MWh to reduce output, thus getting a premium of £10-£15 per MWh."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,569

    O/T I have just felt moved to donate a small payment to Wikipedia; I don't do it very often but 98% don't bother at all apparently.

    It is still amazing to me that Wiki remains free and ad-free. I wonder if that will continue indefinitely.

    I donate small amounts, regularly.
    It's reportedly rather profitable, but so long as it continues as it is, that doesn't bother me much.
  • DJ41 said:

    Off-topic: I hope Smarkets win a big chunk of market share from Betfair before the 2024 USPE. As well as delaying paying out my winnings on Biden for ages in 2020 until the last MAGA nut in Viking headwear and waving a Confederacy flag was safely in custody, BF also recently slashed my deposit limit by more than 95% without telling me, won't acknowledge what they did, and won't reinstall it.

    Betfair Exchange has a deposit limit?

    What, like per day?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Chris said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1590956804854497281

    Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    NEW. Britain's Reform Party hits highest ever support in polls of 8% --more than enough to cost Sunak & Cons the next election. Has close to 1 in 8 of Boris Johnson's 2019 voters

    Lab 42% (-5)
    Con 21% (-)
    LibDem 9% (-1)
    Green 9% (+2)
    Reform 8% (+3)
    SNP 5% (-)

    @PeoplePolling
    Nov9

    Goodwin 1. owns/controls People Polling and 2. has a right wing agenda the size of my manhood. But PP is BPC.

    So the Sunak bounce took the Tories to exactly half as much support as Labour?
    That's the overall picture, yes
  • In a day of remarkable developments that should ensure the defenestration of Putin, this is perhaps the most disastrous for him:

    "The European Union has replaced most of the Russian gas with LNG imports-The European Commission"

    https://twitter.com/LWNChannel/status/1591076555341860864

    Rejoice with Ukraine today!!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,160

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
    Tired of you saying that because it's cobblers.
    No, it's not cobblers, it's easily verifiable fact.

    https://www.ref.org.uk/ref-blog/354-a-decade-of-constraint-payments

    "Wind farm owners charge more per unit to reduce output than they earn through generating. For wind farms subsidised under the Renewables Obligation (RO) the income foregone when instructed to reduce output is the value of the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROC). Typically, wind farms ask to be paid much more than the lost income, and in the early days of wind farm constraint payments, the premiums charged for not generating were very high indeed. For example, in 2011, Crystal Rig 2 charged £991 per MWh to reduce output compared to the value of the ROC at that time of £42 per MWh. Kilbraur, Millennium, Farr, An Suidhe were charging between £200 to £320 per MWh constrained-off in 2011.!

    This was regarded as an abuse of market power, and the Government introduced the Transmission Constraint Licence Condition (TCLC) in 2012, which sought to prevent excessive bid prices in the event of a constraint. While there can be no doubt that the TCLC resulted in a reduction in prices, they are still well in excess of the subsidy foregone in 2019

    ...Assuming the 2019 ROC value will be approximately £55, these wind farms would receive £49 per MWh if generating but ask for and receive £96-£98 per MWh not to generate and thus get a premium of £47–£49 above the subsidy when constrained off. The five wind farms with the lowest constraint prices are older wind farms which receive 1 ROC per MWh. In 2019, they were setting constraint prices of £64-£69 per MWh to reduce output, thus getting a premium of £10-£15 per MWh."
    Per unit, not in total.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    In a day of remarkable developments that should ensure the defenestration of Putin, this is perhaps the most disastrous for him:

    "The European Union has replaced most of the Russian gas with LNG imports-The European Commission"

    https://twitter.com/LWNChannel/status/1591076555341860864

    The weather has also been extremely kind this year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Taz said:

    In a day of remarkable developments that should ensure the defenestration of Putin, this is perhaps the most disastrous for him:

    "The European Union has replaced most of the Russian gas with LNG imports-The European Commission"

    https://twitter.com/LWNChannel/status/1591076555341860864

    Next winter will be the problem, not this one.
    While that's true, next winter is also a year away, and a lot can happen in a year.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    edited November 2022
    DJ41 said:

    Off-topic: I hope Smarkets win a big chunk of market share from Betfair before the 2024 USPE. As well as delaying paying out my winnings on Biden for ages in 2020 until the last MAGA nut in Viking headwear and waving a Confederacy flag was safely in custody, BF also recently slashed my deposit limit by more than 95% without telling me, won't acknowledge what they did, and won't reinstall it.

    i'm surprised at that. if you're betting on the exchange it isnt their money at risk from your activities.

    ETA. if the deposit limit is because they think you might be betting more than you can afford they ought to be open about it and give you the opportunity to prove you are ok with your level of betting.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
    That may be one aspect of it, but from my limited knowledge, it's more to do with the stresses excess winds put on the blades, gearing and generator. Whilst some turbines have gears (to convert the blades' rotation to an ideal faster speed for the generator), it is fixed-ratio and not variable gearing - i.e. you cannot change from gear 1 to gear 2. This means that when the wind speeds are low, the turbine is very inefficient. It also means that when wind speeds are high, the blades can overspeed and the mechanism can be damaged. For instance, you do not want the blade tip speed reaching the speed of sound, which is surprisingly easy with rotors many tens of metres in diameter. So in high winds, they feather the blades.

    Then there are direct-drive turbines with no gearing, which are inefficient as the generator does not work as well, as it wants a fast input shaft rotation speed.

    ISTR a Dutch company was attempting a variable gearbox on a turbine a few years back, but there are issues in that they are much more complex, and doing anything more than routine maintenance on a turbine many tens of metres above the ground is difficult.

    (IANAE, etc, etc)
    I thought you were an engineer (by training at least), but just not that kind of engineer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,848
    Alistair said:

    In 2016, I wondered why Democrats didn't run a series of ads showing Trump victims, contractors he'd cheated, victims of Trump University, et cetera, et cetera. This isn't a novel idea; they used something similar against Romney in 2012, though the ad was, I believe, deceptive.

    They did, there were a bunch of them:

    https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/morning_roundup/2016/07/clinton-ad-features-trump-taj-mahal-worker-donald.html

    They were apparently pretty persuasive in focus group testing but they couldn't get them infront of the right eyes and people were sceptical of them because "The news wasn't saying anything about Trump stiffing contractors"
    To his hard core support him being a bastard in business is a plus.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited November 2022
    A lot of this is anecdotal, admittedly, but there does appear to be a quiet determination from pretty much everyone I speak to, to keep the heating off much longer than would normally be the case.

    Much of this is very obviously price driven, through fear of the increases, and we have of course been spoiled by a very mild autumn so far, but I think it has morphed somewhat into a rather quiet, blitz-spirit like attitude bubbling below the surface, even in people who are well-off enough to pay the prices if they wanted to, particularly with the support scheme in place. If this is being repeated across society then the gas stocks in reserve must be significant.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    edited November 2022

    DJ41 said:

    Off-topic: I hope Smarkets win a big chunk of market share from Betfair before the 2024 USPE. As well as delaying paying out my winnings on Biden for ages in 2020 until the last MAGA nut in Viking headwear and waving a Confederacy flag was safely in custody, BF also recently slashed my deposit limit by more than 95% without telling me, won't acknowledge what they did, and won't reinstall it.

    i'm surprised at that. if you're betting on the exchange it isnt their money at risk from your activities.
    Smarkets is both: they're an exchange, but they also take risk.

    (As in, they will have market makers on the various markets to ensure liquidity, and to encourage people to use their exchange. Not a stupid idea at all.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
    Tired of you saying that because it's cobblers.
    No, it's not cobblers, it's easily verifiable fact.

    https://www.ref.org.uk/ref-blog/354-a-decade-of-constraint-payments

    "Wind farm owners charge more per unit to reduce output than they earn through generating. For wind farms subsidised under the Renewables Obligation (RO) the income foregone when instructed to reduce output is the value of the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROC). Typically, wind farms ask to be paid much more than the lost income, and in the early days of wind farm constraint payments, the premiums charged for not generating were very high indeed. For example, in 2011, Crystal Rig 2 charged £991 per MWh to reduce output compared to the value of the ROC at that time of £42 per MWh. Kilbraur, Millennium, Farr, An Suidhe were charging between £200 to £320 per MWh constrained-off in 2011.!

    This was regarded as an abuse of market power, and the Government introduced the Transmission Constraint Licence Condition (TCLC) in 2012, which sought to prevent excessive bid prices in the event of a constraint. While there can be no doubt that the TCLC resulted in a reduction in prices, they are still well in excess of the subsidy foregone in 2019

    ...Assuming the 2019 ROC value will be approximately £55, these wind farms would receive £49 per MWh if generating but ask for and receive £96-£98 per MWh not to generate and thus get a premium of £47–£49 above the subsidy when constrained off. The five wind farms with the lowest constraint prices are older wind farms which receive 1 ROC per MWh. In 2019, they were setting constraint prices of £64-£69 per MWh to reduce output, thus getting a premium of £10-£15 per MWh."
    Per unit, not in total.
    My statement doesn't refer to a total, but even if it did, I'd have been correct. In 2020, Corriegarth Wind Farm constrained 51% of its power, Strathy North constrained 48%. Assuming even a modest premium per unit above what they get for power generation, that means they did make more than half their money from switching off.
    https://www.ref.org.uk/ref-blog/371-constraint-payments-to-wind-power-in-2020-and-2021
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
    That may be one aspect of it, but from my limited knowledge, it's more to do with the stresses excess winds put on the blades, gearing and generator. Whilst some turbines have gears (to convert the blades' rotation to an ideal faster speed for the generator), it is fixed-ratio and not variable gearing - i.e. you cannot change from gear 1 to gear 2. This means that when the wind speeds are low, the turbine is very inefficient. It also means that when wind speeds are high, the blades can overspeed and the mechanism can be damaged. For instance, you do not want the blade tip speed reaching the speed of sound, which is surprisingly easy with rotors many tens of metres in diameter. So in high winds, they feather the blades.

    Then there are direct-drive turbines with no gearing, which are inefficient as the generator does not work as well, as it wants a fast input shaft rotation speed.

    ISTR a Dutch company was attempting a variable gearbox on a turbine a few years back, but there are issues in that they are much more complex, and doing anything more than routine maintenance on a turbine many tens of metres above the ground is difficult.

    (IANAE, etc, etc)
    I thought you were an engineer (by training at least), but just not that kind of engineer.
    Lot's of people think I'm so long-winded that I must be an expert on wind power ... ;)
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:
    It's a parody account.
    Yes, that's the point. It's blue ticked.

    Twitter is currently a larger bin fire than normal.
    Yeah, but... so what?

    Some people are acting like "blue ticks" are this sacrosanct thing that have always been a solid gold mark of reliability.

    Even if that was true, it's still a standard that Twitter introduced themselves just over ten years ago, and were always somewhat controversial - in part because of how opaque the decision process was as to who did and didn't get one.

    So, so what if now it means literally nothing at all?

    There will no doubt be a bunch of people over the next few years who get stung by a parody/scam account because they haven't adjusted to the new system yet. But, a) you should never believe anything you see on Twitter without a credible external link anyway, b) a lot of those people are probably dumb enough to have been stung anyway, and c) probably no-one will lose any money or anything else important over this, because you shouldn't be using Twitter as (for example) a direct replacement for your bank's account helpline.

    In summary: so what?
    I may be a bit behind the curve, not being a regular user of Twitter, but certainly in my experience if I see the blue tick, I don’t question that the source is the legitimate person/company/what-have-you.

    Surely the utility of the platform is significantly weakened if that system breaks down, because the reliability of the information is questionable. And in turn that will put off those in the media who use it as a reporting tool.

    There surely has to be a chance (though still slight) that if they don’t get on top of this, Twitter could be the first big social media casualty since MySpace.
    So... the media using it as a reporting tool is what drives revenue? And them deserting the platform will cause it to collapse?

    Even if that did eventually happen - and I am very unconvinced it will - I don't see why it matters right now.
    Certainly one of the big things that drives Twitter is the fact it is a quick direct line to news and developments about people and organisations. That surely drives a significant chunk of its traffic, not the people who use it to have a debate (there are better platforms out there for that).

    If traffic collapses, revenue collapses and value collapses.
    Maybe; I have no idea. The guy who just spent $44bn on it probably has a pretty good idea what makes it money and what doesn't (only probably, because of who is).

    But I don't care about what is and is not long term good business sense for Musk with regards to Twitter. I'm specifically responding to people who think there's some negative impact on wider society happening right now because a billionaire bought a 15 year old company and made a well-publicised change to what symbols mean when used on its platform.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    In a day of remarkable developments that should ensure the defenestration of Putin, this is perhaps the most disastrous for him:

    "The European Union has replaced most of the Russian gas with LNG imports-The European Commission"

    https://twitter.com/LWNChannel/status/1591076555341860864

    The weather has also been extremely kind this year.
    I'm not saying it is mild but I was on the seafront at Portabello yesterday at 6pm and wouldn't have needed my coat.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    A lot of this is anecdotal, admittedly, but there does appear to be a quiet determination from pretty much everyone I speak to, to keep the heating off much longer than would normally be the case.

    Much of this is very obviously price driven, through fear of the increases, and we have of course been spoiled by a very mild autumn so far, but I think it has morphed somewhat into a rather quiet, blitz-spirit like attitude bubbling below the surface, even in people who are well-off enough to pay the prices if they wanted to, particularly with the support scheme in place. If this is being repeated across society then the gas stocks in reserve must be significant.

    I have heard similar.

    That said, it has also been unseasonably warm. I think I've had the heating on for two evenings and one morning so far this autumn...
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,395
    The race for Washington's 3rd House district tightened yesterday. Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez now leads Trumpista Joe Kent 132,161 to 126,279. (After Wednesday's count, the race was 117,179-108,324.)

    (I made a quick search, but didn't find any explanation for the tightening.)

    I really, really want Joe Kent to lose. In our top-two primary, he narrowly edged out Jaime Herra Beutler, one of the ten Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after January 6th. (It was considered a safe Republican district before that primary.)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    Slightly off topic: Kamski - I hope you are able to go to the Seahawks game this Sunday. (As I am sure you know, they don't play in Germany every year.)

    I see they are playing in Munich - bit of a trek for me. Funnily enough, I'm taking my boy to his first football (I guess you'd call it soccer) match with a few friends tomorrow: Leverkusen vs Stuttgart (impossible to get Effzeh (Köln) tickets, plus one of his best friends is a fan). He's going to be wearing his Kane England shirt probably. Tickets not too expensive - 30 Euros adult, 12 Euros child.

    Today the biggest 11/11 carnival crowds I've ever seen here I think - probably pent up "demand" (this year's carnival proper was very subdued because the war had just started, and last year ran into Covid), plus the fine weather. Streets full of people in crazy costumes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
    Tired of you saying that because it's cobblers.
    No, it's not cobblers, it's easily verifiable fact.

    https://www.ref.org.uk/ref-blog/354-a-decade-of-constraint-payments

    "Wind farm owners charge more per unit to reduce output than they earn through generating. For wind farms subsidised under the Renewables Obligation (RO) the income foregone when instructed to reduce output is the value of the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROC). Typically, wind farms ask to be paid much more than the lost income, and in the early days of wind farm constraint payments, the premiums charged for not generating were very high indeed. For example, in 2011, Crystal Rig 2 charged £991 per MWh to reduce output compared to the value of the ROC at that time of £42 per MWh. Kilbraur, Millennium, Farr, An Suidhe were charging between £200 to £320 per MWh constrained-off in 2011.!

    This was regarded as an abuse of market power, and the Government introduced the Transmission Constraint Licence Condition (TCLC) in 2012, which sought to prevent excessive bid prices in the event of a constraint. While there can be no doubt that the TCLC resulted in a reduction in prices, they are still well in excess of the subsidy foregone in 2019

    ...Assuming the 2019 ROC value will be approximately £55, these wind farms would receive £49 per MWh if generating but ask for and receive £96-£98 per MWh not to generate and thus get a premium of £47–£49 above the subsidy when constrained off. The five wind farms with the lowest constraint prices are older wind farms which receive 1 ROC per MWh. In 2019, they were setting constraint prices of £64-£69 per MWh to reduce output, thus getting a premium of £10-£15 per MWh."
    Per unit, not in total.
    My statement doesn't refer to a total, but even if it did, I'd have been correct. In 2020, Corriegarth Wind Farm constrained 51% of its power, Strathy North constrained 48%. Assuming even a modest premium per unit above what they get for power generation, that means they did make more than half their money from switching off.
    https://www.ref.org.uk/ref-blog/371-constraint-payments-to-wind-power-in-2020-and-2021
    My recollection - which may be wrong - is that most of the problem is caused by lack of interconnector capacity to take away wind power, rather than lack of demand for the power itself.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    edited November 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://www.windy.com/?57.350,2.813,4

    Scotland currently getting a good 25% of European wind, balance to Norway and the Baltics

    Next Tuesday evening forecast to be a bonanza for North Sea wind farms.
    Looking good. Now, if only they had a linked array of Starfish Prime™ storage batteries to feed into.
    Is there a maximum wind speed above which more wind becomes useless for the purposes if electricity generation?
    Very much so. At a certain windspeed they turn them off (ie stop them turning) presumably to prevent damage.
    AFAIK it is damage due to overloading the grid at the entry point that makes them switch off, rather than damage to the turbines. As PB will be very tired of me saying, they get paid to switch off, more than they actually get paid for producing power.
    Tired of you saying that because it's cobblers.
    No, it's not cobblers, it's easily verifiable fact.

    https://www.ref.org.uk/ref-blog/354-a-decade-of-constraint-payments

    "Wind farm owners charge more per unit to reduce output than they earn through generating. For wind farms subsidised under the Renewables Obligation (RO) the income foregone when instructed to reduce output is the value of the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROC). Typically, wind farms ask to be paid much more than the lost income, and in the early days of wind farm constraint payments, the premiums charged for not generating were very high indeed. For example, in 2011, Crystal Rig 2 charged £991 per MWh to reduce output compared to the value of the ROC at that time of £42 per MWh. Kilbraur, Millennium, Farr, An Suidhe were charging between £200 to £320 per MWh constrained-off in 2011.!

    This was regarded as an abuse of market power, and the Government introduced the Transmission Constraint Licence Condition (TCLC) in 2012, which sought to prevent excessive bid prices in the event of a constraint. While there can be no doubt that the TCLC resulted in a reduction in prices, they are still well in excess of the subsidy foregone in 2019

    ...Assuming the 2019 ROC value will be approximately £55, these wind farms would receive £49 per MWh if generating but ask for and receive £96-£98 per MWh not to generate and thus get a premium of £47–£49 above the subsidy when constrained off. The five wind farms with the lowest constraint prices are older wind farms which receive 1 ROC per MWh. In 2019, they were setting constraint prices of £64-£69 per MWh to reduce output, thus getting a premium of £10-£15 per MWh."
    Per unit, not in total.
    My statement doesn't refer to a total, but even if it did, I'd have been correct. In 2020, Corriegarth Wind Farm constrained 51% of its power, Strathy North constrained 48%. Assuming even a modest premium per unit above what they get for power generation, that means they did make more than half their money from switching off.
    https://www.ref.org.uk/ref-blog/371-constraint-payments-to-wind-power-in-2020-and-2021
    My recollection - which may be wrong - is that most of the problem is caused by lack of interconnector capacity to take away wind power, rather than lack of demand for the power itself.
    That's true, but that is an entirely predictable issue. Why give planning permission to a wind farm that's behind an interconnector bottleneck - especially if it's smack bang in an area of outstanding natural beauty?

    Why apply to build one? That's a different story - it's a license to print money; the more remote and inaccessible the better.
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