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Trump still rated as a 36% chance for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 11 in General
imageTrump still rated as a 36% chance for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

In the next few months I expect to see both DeSantis and Trump to put their hats into the ring in the fight for Republican WH2024 nomination

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • WillGWillG Posts: 507
    I would put him more like 70%.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,926
    Votes in from several more AZ counties, though not yet Maricopa which is due soon.

    Kelly now leads by 105k
    Hobbs now leads by 19k

    Both have generally been outperforming their existing County performance.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,926
    edited November 11
    Clark vote dump:

    Cortez 7480 (61%)
    Laxalt 4195 (34%)
  • Armistice Day.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,926
    Carson City:

    Cortez 928 (56%)
    Laxalt 625 (38%)

    Note this is a County Laxalt leads!

    Laxalt now leads by 12,671
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,926
    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,363
    Arizona is looking done and dusted to me, as Kelly's lead is almost up to 6%.

    Biden at this stage was about 2 percentage points ahead, which means we'd need to have some extraordinary results (which is possible I suppose) for him not to be returned.

    Nevada continues to look very close, with Cortez Masto slowly closing the gap.
  • pingping Posts: 3,175
    Excellent interview with the brain surgeon Henry Marsh on the bbc world service;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct34wx
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,926
    edited November 11
    Big Maricopa vote dump:

    Kelly 43k
    Masters 33k

    Kelly outperforms existing Maricopa percentage.

    John King thinks in line but they aren't as he's rounding cumulative total to nearest %.
  • Unlike the Bourbons, the GOP establishment has forgotten nothing but learned a lot about Trump. 2024 isn't going to be a repeat of 2016 where they fail to unite in time.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Arizona is looking done and dusted to me, as Kelly's lead is almost up to 6%.

    Biden at this stage was about 2 percentage points ahead, which means we'd need to have some extraordinary results (which is possible I suppose) for him not to be returned

    Nevada continues to look very close,
    with Cortez Masto slowly closing the gap.

    Yes on AZ - Masters is toast.

  • Ukraine urged to grasp ‘window of opportunity’ for peace talks with Russia
    US holding discussions with Kremlin ahead of G20 summit showdown

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/10/ukraine-urged-grasp-window-opportunity-peace-talks-russia/ (£££)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,926
    Kelly now leads by 115k
    Hobbs now leads by 27k
  • MikeL said:

    Kelly now leads by 115k
    Hobbs now leads by 27k

    MikeL said:

    Kelly now leads by 115k
    Hobbs now leads by 27k

    Worth following this guy for AZ

    https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1590909761612320768?s=46&t=VtldqM423wLSDzH9TsTlVg

    As he points out, the batch tonight would have favoured the Democrats because of their composition. The 17K Ballot 3 batch from Maricopa is likely to be very heavily GOP.

    I'm with RCS that Kelly has this (probably). Less so with Hobbs.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,926
    edited November 11
    Washoe vote dump.

    Laxalt NV statewide lead falls from 12,671 to 8,054.

    Don't know percentages for dump but looks likely it was very good for Cortez.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,926
    edited November 11
    Washoe batch was:

    Cortez 11,182 (61%)
    Laxalt 6,565 (36%)

    Very good indeed for Cortez.
  • Life expectancy gap in London as high as 17 years
    Shocking figures reveal health gap between rich and poor in the capital

    The gap in life expectancy between some of London’s poorest and most wealthy areas is as high as 17 years, the Standard can reveal.

    A man living in the most deprived area of Barking and Dagenham will live until 73 while a man living in the wealthiest part of Kensington and Chelsea is likely to live until 90.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/life-expectancy-gap-in-london-high-years-b1039015.html

    Not quite proof that all levelling up funds should be spent in London but...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,842
    edited November 11
    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,842
    "Donald Trump may soon be yesterday's news as America's right-wing media turns to Ron DeSantis"

    https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-may-soon-be-yesterdays-news-as-americas-right-wing-media-turns-to-ron-desantis-12743985
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,842
    And as ever in this scenario, if Trump is no longer a shoo-in, the Republican candidates will be knocking spots off one another whilst Joe Biden sails serenely on.

    If the latest US inflation figure is a harbinger of better times in the US then Joe Biden will win handsomely in 2024.
  • Heathener said:

    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
    I cashed out all my American bets over the last couple of days, as it was becoming too much trouble to keep up, especially with remembering who was running for which party in which race, and then having to check what was expected.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,363
    The gap in Nevada looks like it's back out to 11,000 votes.

    Cortez Masto is probably favorite from here, but it's going to be mighty close.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,363
    Heathener said:

    Very wise John @DecrepiterJohnL

    To go slightly against what I wrote below, you can get 5-1 on Joe Biden winning the Presidency in 2024. Okay, he 1) might choose not to stand or 2) might fall ill.

    But he's the sitting President, he is very physically fit, the GOP could very well enter a bitter internecine fight, the American economy 'might' be showing signs of picking up.

    5-1 is attractive.

    As I mentioned yesterday, I caution us not to apply UK-centric vision about Biden. Congressmen and women in old age are a different beast from the UK's ageing tory MP's who have gone to seed on too much beef wellington and port. In the US they see it as part of the American dream to drive forward with energy and live long. 'Retirement' is not the utopia for those who believe that hard work is next to godliness. Senator Strom Thurmond retired from Congress at the age of 101, making Joe Biden positively youthful. Okay, so he stumbles over his words sometimes but compared to Donald Trump, Biden is Demosthenes.

    5-1 on Biden to win is a good bet.

    I agree: 5-1 is generous.
  • pingping Posts: 3,175
    edited November 11
    Heathener said:

    Very wise John @DecrepiterJohnL

    To go slightly against what I wrote below, you can get 5-1 on Joe Biden winning the Presidency in 2024. Okay, he 1) might choose not to stand or 2) might fall ill.

    But he's the sitting President, he is very physically fit, the GOP could very well enter a bitter internecine fight, the American economy 'might' be showing signs of picking up.

    5-1 is attractive.

    As I mentioned yesterday, I caution us not to apply UK-centric vision about Biden. Congressmen and women in old age are a different beast from the UK's ageing tory MP's who have gone to seed on too much beef wellington and port. In the US they see it as part of the American dream to drive forward with energy and live long. 'Retirement' is not the utopia for those who believe that hard work is next to godliness. Senator Strom Thurmond retired from Congress at the age of 101, making Joe Biden positively youthful. Okay, so he stumbles over his words sometimes but compared to Donald Trump, Biden is Demosthenes.

    5-1 on Biden to win is a good bet.

    Yes, that does look like value to me.

    A great betting tip from @Heathener !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,363
    Heathener said:

    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
    I've done OK :smiley:
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,842
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
    I've done OK :smiley:
    You have, but you live in the US so you know your onions ;)

    It's risky over here because we often miss the nuances of what's happening.
  • Good morning all! I'm less interested in US politics than most people on here, but every election my mind boggles at the screaming incompetence of their electoral system.

    If we can manage to hand count, tally and declare the results of a nationwide referendum overnight, states should be able to do the same. It's absurd and yet so many of them still think their way is world-leading.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,450

    Good morning all! I'm less interested in US politics than most people on here, but every election my mind boggles at the screaming incompetence of their electoral system.

    If we can manage to hand count, tally and declare the results of a nationwide referendum overnight, states should be able to do the same. It's absurd and yet so many of them still think their way is world-leading.

    The new person doesn't take office for 2 months, why do they have to do it overnight? If you've got months to play with anyhow you may as well optimize for other things, like letting someone who puts their vote in the post on the last day get it counted, or letting someone who tried to vote but screwed up some procedural thing fix whatever the problem was so their vote is counted.

    Also the Americans vote on a gazillion different things simultaneously, so it's logistically harder than if it's just one thing to vote on and you can put the papers in different piles and then count how many papers there are in each pile.
  • Good morning all! I'm less interested in US politics than most people on here, but every election my mind boggles at the screaming incompetence of their electoral system.

    If we can manage to hand count, tally and declare the results of a nationwide referendum overnight, states should be able to do the same. It's absurd and yet so many of them still think their way is world-leading.

    The new person doesn't take office for 2 months, why do they have to do it overnight? If you've got months to play with anyhow you may as well optimize for other things, like letting someone who puts their vote in the post on the last day get it counted, or letting someone who tried to vote but screwed up some procedural thing fix whatever the problem was so their vote is counted.

    Also the Americans vote on a gazillion different things simultaneously, so it's logistically harder than if it's just one thing to vote on and you can put the papers in different piles and then count how many papers there are in each pile.
    Why? Because the networks call results before the votes are counted. Even the *candidates* do that, and then as the vote continues and the vote swings they call fraud.

    It isn't fit for purpose.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 765
    Correction - DeSantis is Governor of Florida not Texas!
  • rcs1000 said:

    The gap in Nevada looks like it's back out to 11,000 votes.

    Cortez Masto is probably favorite from here, but it's going to be mighty close.

    Do we know how many rural votes are left?

    There's a lot of visibility around Clark and, to a lesser degree, Washoe because they are proactive.

    With a lot of the rural counties; it seems like it's a case of reporters ringing around the offices and somebody answering the phone. Nobody expected the Douglas County drop.

    Given the race is going to be so close, that may matter.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,121
    edited November 11
    Noted election analyst, Dave Wasserman has seen enough and called AZ Senate for Kelly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859

    Good morning all! I'm less interested in US politics than most people on here, but every election my mind boggles at the screaming incompetence of their electoral system.

    If we can manage to hand count, tally and declare the results of a nationwide referendum overnight, states should be able to do the same. It's absurd and yet so many of them still think their way is world-leading.

    The new person doesn't take office for 2 months, why do they have to do it overnight? If you've got months to play with anyhow you may as well optimize for other things, like letting someone who puts their vote in the post on the last day get it counted, or letting someone who tried to vote but screwed up some procedural thing fix whatever the problem was so their vote is counted.

    Also the Americans vote on a gazillion different things simultaneously, so it's logistically harder than if it's just one thing to vote on and you can put the papers in different piles and then count how many papers there are in each pile.
    Yes, they need to separate the ballot papers out, as in the UK.

    No-one cares too much if the city dog-catcher election result isn’t announced for a week or two, but Representatives, Senators, and Governors should be counted as quickly as possible.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    With one more Washoe drop and at least 2 more Clark updates, probably 3 to bet on Laxalt is to bet on the 60/35 ratio changin significantly or thousands of thousands of unknown rurals
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    TimS said:

    It’s strange watching the Ukraine war unfold the way it has done.

    For most of my adult life, indeed probably my entire life, wars were generally either asymmetric affairs between a large imperial power and a guerrilla force in a weaker country, or civil wars within smaller nations.

    Here we have an archetype of an early 20th century war. 2 nations fighting over territory with artillery, tanks and missiles. With a few drones thrown in for 21st century flavour. The last ever traditional territorial war in human history.

    Trenches, attacks and counterattacks, towns being occupied then liberated, annexations, sieges, retreats, PoWs. And the casualty figures are huge and tragic. I read the reports from Kherson and wonder what it must feel like to be a soldier, trapped by the riverside, artillery fire raining down, not knowing whether I’ll survive the night. It doesn’t bear thinking about.

    This war was completely avoidable, a war of choice based on a deluded vision and
    nostalgia for empire. I really hope it’s the last such event.

    An appropriate sentiment for Armistice Day. If not a novel one.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,450

    Good morning all! I'm less interested in US politics than most people on here, but every election my mind boggles at the screaming incompetence of their electoral system.

    If we can manage to hand count, tally and declare the results of a nationwide referendum overnight, states should be able to do the same. It's absurd and yet so many of them still think their way is world-leading.

    The new person doesn't take office for 2 months, why do they have to do it overnight? If you've got months to play with anyhow you may as well optimize for other things, like letting someone who puts their vote in the post on the last day get it counted, or letting someone who tried to vote but screwed up some procedural thing fix whatever the problem was so their vote is counted.

    Also the Americans vote on a gazillion different things simultaneously, so it's logistically harder than if it's just one thing to vote on and you can put the papers in different piles and then count how many papers there are in each pile.
    Why? Because the networks call results before the votes are counted. Even the *candidates* do that, and then as the vote continues and the vote swings they call fraud.

    It isn't fit for purpose.
    The only practical problem there is that a bunch of stupid liars are making stupid claims about fraud. But they're going to do that anyway, and nobody believes them except their stupid cult.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    edited November 11
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning all! I'm less interested in US politics than most people on here, but every election my mind boggles at the screaming incompetence of their electoral system.

    If we can manage to hand count, tally and declare the results of a nationwide referendum overnight, states should be able to do the same. It's absurd and yet so many of them still think their way is world-leading.

    The new person doesn't take office for 2 months, why do they have to do it overnight? If you've got months to play with anyhow you may as well optimize for other things, like letting someone who puts their vote in the post on the last day get it counted, or letting someone who tried to vote but screwed up some procedural thing fix whatever the problem was so their vote is counted.

    Also the Americans vote on a gazillion different things simultaneously, so it's logistically harder than if it's just one thing to vote on and you can put the papers in different piles and then count how many papers there are in each pile.
    Yes, they need to separate the ballot papers out, as in the UK.

    No-one cares too much if the city dog-catcher election result isn’t announced for a week or two, but Representatives, Senators, and Governors should be counted as quickly as possible.
    Isn’t it usually one big paper? For the machines.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
    I've done OK :smiley:
    You have, but you live in the US so you know your onions ;)

    It's risky over here because we often miss the nuances of what's happening.
    I would have done better had I stayed in the US three more weeks, sensing the shift back to the Dems, rather than coming home and being misled by the reports coming through the UK media.
  • pingping Posts: 3,175
    edited November 11
    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Biden saved a bunch of big policy wins for late in the elecrion cycle.

    I think he was a rubbish candidate and not a great President but he managed the passing of legislation and executive action beautifully for best political advantage.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,295
    Heathener said:

    Very wise John @DecrepiterJohnL

    To go slightly against what I wrote below, you can get 5-1 on Joe Biden winning the Presidency in 2024. Okay, he 1) might choose not to stand or 2) might fall ill.

    But he's the sitting President, he is very physically fit, the GOP could very well enter a bitter internecine fight, the American economy 'might' be showing signs of picking up.

    5-1 is attractive.

    As I mentioned yesterday, I caution us not to apply UK-centric vision about Biden. Congressmen and women in old age are a different beast from the UK's ageing tory MP's who have gone to seed on too much beef wellington and port. In the US they see it as part of the American dream to drive forward with energy and live long. 'Retirement' is not the utopia for those who believe that hard work is next to godliness. Senator Strom Thurmond retired from Congress at the age of 101, making Joe Biden positively youthful. Okay, so he stumbles over his words sometimes but compared to Donald Trump, Biden is Demosthenes.

    5-1 on Biden to win is a good bet.

    Also, Biden (D) may be facing DeSantis (R) and Trump (I)
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    ping said:

    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.

    Agreed, although it will probably we revised upwards.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    IanB2 said:

    JohnO said:

    Noted election analyst, Dave Wasserman has seen enough and called AZ Senate for Kelly.

    PB waits to see if it’s possible for Lake to overcome the poisonous Curse of Leondamus….

    Meanwhile we can only hope that the battle royale between Trumpty and DeSantis destroys both of them….
    Leondamus has clearly got some traction here.

    Rogerdamus is no more, it would seem
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    edited November 11
    SNP’s finest:

    Mr Nicholson. This is being sub-tweeted a lot, & you may not be seeing it.* So let me address you directly: for you to refer to one of UK’s leading equality KCs in this way is disgraceful; & for you to comment on a case where you testified before judgment is spectacularly unwise.

    https://twitter.com/roddyqc/status/1590857759876329472?

    *Possibly because he blocks with gay abandon.

    I’m sure Karon Monaghan is a relatively competent barrister. But I found her nervous seeming and reliant on briefing notes from third parties passed to her. She was clearly unable to defend the abusive behaviour of her clients - the so called ‘LGB Alliance’.

    https://twitter.com/mrjohnnicolson/status/1590459091813806080

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,320
    JohnO said:

    Noted election analyst, Dave Wasserman has seen enough and called AZ Senate for Kelly.

    Good - hopefully the networks will call it today. Who knows when NV will be done!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,320
    rcs1000 said:

    The gap in Nevada looks like it's back out to 11,000 votes.

    Cortez Masto is probably favorite from here, but it's going to be mighty close.

    Down to 9k again now
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,981
    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    That's an argument that I've been making for some time. The Biden administration has been absurdly underrated.
    It's unlikely that he gets the nomination unopposed, IMO.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning all! I'm less interested in US politics than most people on here, but every election my mind boggles at the screaming incompetence of their electoral system.

    If we can manage to hand count, tally and declare the results of a nationwide referendum overnight, states should be able to do the same. It's absurd and yet so many of them still think their way is world-leading.

    The new person doesn't take office for 2 months, why do they have to do it overnight? If you've got months to play with anyhow you may as well optimize for other things, like letting someone who puts their vote in the post on the last day get it counted, or letting someone who tried to vote but screwed up some procedural thing fix whatever the problem was so their vote is counted.

    Also the Americans vote on a gazillion different things simultaneously, so it's logistically harder than if it's just one thing to vote on and you can put the papers in different piles and then count how many papers there are in each pile.
    Yes, they need to separate the ballot papers out, as in the UK.

    No-one cares too much if the city dog-catcher election result isn’t announced for a week or two, but Representatives, Senators, and Governors should be counted as quickly as possible.
    Isn’t it usually one big paper? For the machines.
    Yes, there can be 20 or 30 elections all on one paper.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    edited November 11

    Good morning all! I'm less interested in US politics than most people on here, but every election my mind boggles at the screaming incompetence of their electoral system.

    If we can manage to hand count, tally and declare the results of a nationwide referendum overnight, states should be able to do the same. It's absurd and yet so many of them still think their way is world-leading.

    The new person doesn't take office for 2 months, why do they have to do it overnight? If you've got months to play with anyhow you may as well optimize for other things, like letting someone who puts their vote in the post on the last day get it counted, or letting someone who tried to vote but screwed up some procedural thing fix whatever the problem was so their vote is counted.

    Also the Americans vote on a gazillion different things simultaneously, so it's logistically harder than if it's just one thing to vote on and you can put the papers in different piles and then count how many papers there are in each pile.
    Why? Because the networks call results before the votes are counted. Even the *candidates* do that, and then as the vote continues and the vote swings they call fraud.

    It isn't fit for purpose.
    The only practical problem there is that a bunch of stupid liars are making stupid claims about fraud. But they're going to do that anyway, and nobody believes them except their stupid cult.
    I do think this steady trail of votes being "found" or to "arrive" after the main bulk of them have been counted is fertile ground for conspiracy and steal nonsense. When the US democracy is as fragile as it is now this does not help. The focus is much more on these ultra-close results these days because America is so evenly and bitterly divided between 2 camps who simply do not trust each other. The involvement of politicians in the mechanics of counting is unhelpful in such scenarios and I have no doubt that our procedures, along with most other democracies, are superior in maintaining public confidence.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,859
    JohnO said:

    Noted election analyst, Dave Wasserman has seen enough and called AZ Senate for Kelly.

    Good call, AZ Senate isn’t close. AZ Governor is much tighter, Hobbs and Lake right now 26k votes apart.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,981
    .
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    Everything’s going so well:

    .@NicolaSturgeon continues to ignore public opposition and seeks to push through the Gender Recognition Reform Bill in under two weeks, demonstrating once again that she prioritises the approval of lobby groups over Scottish voters' concerns. 1/2

    The polling is clear: this bill is not supported by the public. Principled MSPs have already voted against it and one has resigned, yet the First Feminist remains determined to undermine the sex-based rights of Scottish girls and women. 2/2


    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1590792815243538432

    Seeking approval of lobby groups is not just the preserve of the Scottish govt. All the UK govts and local councils are guilty of that. Lobbyists are on their case all the time, far easier to accede to them so they do not get bothered.

    Sunak happily signing up to Climate Reparations are a sign of that.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,320
    Taz said:

    ping said:

    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.

    Agreed, although it will probably we revised upwards.
    Presumably some of that is due to a productivity hit after the death of HMQ
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,981
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
    I've done OK :smiley:
    You have, but you live in the US so you know your onions ;)

    It's risky over here because we often miss the nuances of what's happening.
    I would have done better had I stayed in the US three more weeks, sensing the shift back to the Dems, rather than coming home and being misled by the reports coming through the UK media.
    First rule of US betting is to discount anything you hear from the UK media. There are some exceptions, but you're far better following US media.
    The BBC is unusually poor compared to the rest of its output, for some reason.
    Taz said:

    ping said:

    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.

    Agreed, although it will probably we revised upwards.
    The manufacturing figures were awful, and will get worse this quarter, I think.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729
    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    I guess we could compare him to Reagan, whose acuity (such as it was) was clearly fading by the time he made president, but had the right mix of trust and luck to be surrounded by some competent people and was relaxed enough just to be the front man.

    Unlike, say, Trump who tried to meddle in everything despite being an idiot, or Johnson, whose laziness gave his team more space but made no effort to pick competent ministers.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,527
    The only thing Biden opponents really have on him these days is that he’s old. That’s about it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    Taz said:

    Everything’s going so well:

    .@NicolaSturgeon continues to ignore public opposition and seeks to push through the Gender Recognition Reform Bill in under two weeks, demonstrating once again that she prioritises the approval of lobby groups over Scottish voters' concerns. 1/2

    The polling is clear: this bill is not supported by the public. Principled MSPs have already voted against it and one has resigned, yet the First Feminist remains determined to undermine the sex-based rights of Scottish girls and women. 2/2


    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1590792815243538432

    Seeking approval of lobby groups is not just the preserve of the Scottish govt. All the UK govts and local councils are guilty of that. Lobbyists are on their case all the time, far easier to accede to them so they do not get bothered.

    Sunak happily signing up to Climate Reparations are a sign of that.
    The £5m contribution from the incredibly strapped Scottish budget to give Nicola a photo op was truly bizarre.
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/nicola-sturgeon-pledges-5m-in-climate-change-reparations-to-developing-nations/ar-AA13PENv#:~:text=Nicola Sturgeon has announced she will pay £5,Milligan /PA Nicola Sturgeon - Andrew Milligan /PA

    If someone would just offer her an international job it would save us some much needed money.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
    I've done OK :smiley:
    You have, but you live in the US so you know your onions ;)

    It's risky over here because we often miss the nuances of what's happening.
    I would have done better had I stayed in the US three more weeks, sensing the shift back to the Dems, rather than coming home and being misled by the reports coming through the UK media.
    First rule of US betting is to discount anything you hear from the UK media. There are some exceptions, but you're far better following US media.
    The BBC is unusually poor compared to the rest of its output, for some reason.
    Taz said:

    ping said:

    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.

    Agreed, although it will probably we revised upwards.
    The manufacturing figures were awful, and will get worse this quarter, I think.
    PMI figures across the world have been getting progessively worse.

    I think you are absolutely right. Our future order book is down 7% year on year. I appreciate that is at a micro rather than macro level but I think that is pretty much what alot of businesses in the sector are seeing from other businesses I speak to.

    I was on a presentation from our corporate entity to Senior local management last week and the outlook, they predict, for manufacturing not just this quarter but next year as well is bleak.



  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
    I've done OK :smiley:
    You have, but you live in the US so you know your onions ;)

    It's risky over here because we often miss the nuances of what's happening.
    I would have done better had I stayed in the US three more weeks, sensing the shift back to the Dems, rather than coming home and being misled by the reports coming through the UK media.
    First rule of US betting is to discount anything you hear from the UK media. There are some exceptions, but you're far better following US media.
    The BBC is unusually poor compared to the rest of its output, for some reason.
    Taz said:

    ping said:

    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.

    Agreed, although it will probably we revised upwards.
    The manufacturing figures were awful, and will get worse this quarter, I think.
    The real problem this causes, even if it is distorted by Her Majesty's passing, is this "rule" that debt will be falling as a share of GDP. If our economy is shrinking that requires a surplus unless you start mucking about with nominal and real debts. It must be making the budget calculations for next week extremely difficult.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    The wave of job cuts across the technology industry is a particular concern for Ireland and its finances, thanks to its huge exposure to tax revenue from multinational corporations.

    The announcement from Meta Platforms Inc. that it’s cutting 13% of its workforce -- which would equate to about 350 roles in Ireland -- followed news of huge reductions at Stripe Inc. and Twitter Inc. That’s hundreds of jobs lost or at risk within days, with more expected.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-11/ireland-s-financial-blind-spot-hit-by-mass-tech-job-cuts?leadSource=uverify wall
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    Taz said:

    ping said:

    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.

    Agreed, although it will probably we revised upwards.
    Presumably some of that is due to a productivity hit after the death of HMQ
    "“We see a greater risk that the UK slips into technical recession,” said Modupe Adegbembo, an economist at AXA Investment Managers. “As the UK mourns the death of the Queen, the additional bank holiday that has been granted for her funeral could see growth shift lower than we had initially expected, increasing the risk that the UK slips into technical recession this quarter.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/14/recession-threat-looms-as-uk-grinds-to-a-halt-to-mourn-queen
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,642
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
    I've done OK :smiley:
    You have, but you live in the US so you know your onions ;)

    It's risky over here because we often miss the nuances of what's happening.
    I would have done better had I stayed in the US three more weeks, sensing the shift back to the Dems, rather than coming home and being misled by the reports coming through the UK media.
    First rule of US betting is to discount anything you hear from the UK media. There are some exceptions, but you're far better following US media.
    The BBC is unusually poor compared to the rest of its output, for some reason.
    Taz said:

    ping said:

    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.

    Agreed, although it will probably we revised upwards.
    The manufacturing figures were awful, and will get worse this quarter, I think.
    The real problem this causes, even if it is distorted by Her Majesty's passing, is this "rule" that debt will be falling as a share of GDP. If our economy is shrinking that requires a surplus unless you start mucking about with nominal and real debts. It must be making the budget calculations for next week extremely difficult.
    David Her Majesty didn't pass. She died. I'll give you passed away at an unwelcome stretch.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    MikeL said:

    Elko:

    Cortez 308 (29%)
    Laxalt 689 (65%)

    But Laxalt leads the County 76-20

    So in all 3 Counties, Cortez outperforms.

    Those piling in on Laxalt the other day may have made a mistake. There's a reason the networks said it was too close to call, or even narrowly favouring Cortez.

    Brits punting on US politics is a dangerous game to play.
    I've done OK :smiley:
    You have, but you live in the US so you know your onions ;)

    It's risky over here because we often miss the nuances of what's happening.
    I would have done better had I stayed in the US three more weeks, sensing the shift back to the Dems, rather than coming home and being misled by the reports coming through the UK media.
    First rule of US betting is to discount anything you hear from the UK media. There are some exceptions, but you're far better following US media.
    The BBC is unusually poor compared to the rest of its output, for some reason.
    Taz said:

    ping said:

    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.

    Agreed, although it will probably we revised upwards.
    The manufacturing figures were awful, and will get worse this quarter, I think.
    The real problem this causes, even if it is distorted by Her Majesty's passing, is this "rule" that debt will be falling as a share of GDP. If our economy is shrinking that requires a surplus unless you start mucking about with nominal and real debts. It must be making the budget calculations for next week extremely difficult.
    David Her Majesty didn't pass. She died. I'll give you passed away at an unwelcome stretch.
    Fair point but in this case I had in mind not so much the death but the significant disruption in normal economic activity for quite a while after it making the whole thing more of a process than an event.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    R4 pushback on NEXT boss remarks yesterday “he doesn’t know what he’s talking about and needs to pay his workers more”. David Goodheart of Policy Exchange. Suggests expanding the scheme for 18-30 year olds to come & work for 2 years that we currently have bilaterally with Aus/Nz/Japan/S.Korea unilaterally with EU27.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Years of experience as a Senator and an ability to schmooze and gain support from moderates have paid off. It simply works better than an aggressive disruptor.
    Also his 8 years in charge of the Senate as VP for Obama. He knows how it works and what is possible. But I still think he should quit whilst he is ahead and not stand again.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,320
    edited November 11
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222

    The wave of job cuts across the technology industry is a particular concern for Ireland and its finances, thanks to its huge exposure to tax revenue from multinational corporations.

    The announcement from Meta Platforms Inc. that it’s cutting 13% of its workforce -- which would equate to about 350 roles in Ireland -- followed news of huge reductions at Stripe Inc. and Twitter Inc. That’s hundreds of jobs lost or at risk within days, with more expected.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-11/ireland-s-financial-blind-spot-hit-by-mass-tech-job-cuts?leadSource=uverify wall

    I think that may well prove optimistic. The cuts do not have to be on a pro rata basis. There were rumours that Google might come out of Dublin entirely which is something like 3k jobs. These are the risks of a branch economy in hard times. It is a risk that the UK faces too with so much of our production now owned by foreign interests.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    Taz said:

    Everything’s going so well:

    .@NicolaSturgeon continues to ignore public opposition and seeks to push through the Gender Recognition Reform Bill in under two weeks, demonstrating once again that she prioritises the approval of lobby groups over Scottish voters' concerns. 1/2

    The polling is clear: this bill is not supported by the public. Principled MSPs have already voted against it and one has resigned, yet the First Feminist remains determined to undermine the sex-based rights of Scottish girls and women. 2/2


    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1590792815243538432

    Seeking approval of lobby groups is not just the preserve of the Scottish govt. All the UK govts and local councils are guilty of that. Lobbyists are on their case all the time, far easier to accede to them so they do not get bothered.

    Sunak happily signing up to Climate Reparations are a sign of that.
    On this issue, “Trans women are women” the U.K. government has been a lot more robust than the Scottish one. Replacing the likes of Penny Mordaunt with the notably more sceptical Kemi Badenoch.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,139

    SNP’s finest:

    Mr Nicholson. This is being sub-tweeted a lot, & you may not be seeing it.* So let me address you directly: for you to refer to one of UK’s leading equality KCs in this way is disgraceful; & for you to comment on a case where you testified before judgment is spectacularly unwise.

    https://twitter.com/roddyqc/status/1590857759876329472?

    *Possibly because he blocks with gay abandon.

    I’m sure Karon Monaghan is a relatively competent barrister. But I found her nervous seeming and reliant on briefing notes from third parties passed to her. She was clearly unable to defend the abusive behaviour of her clients - the so called ‘LGB Alliance’.

    https://twitter.com/mrjohnnicolson/status/1590459091813806080

    Mr. Nicholson (he/she/they) may block with gay abandon, but he will never abandon the gay block.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    Taz said:

    Everything’s going so well:

    .@NicolaSturgeon continues to ignore public opposition and seeks to push through the Gender Recognition Reform Bill in under two weeks, demonstrating once again that she prioritises the approval of lobby groups over Scottish voters' concerns. 1/2

    The polling is clear: this bill is not supported by the public. Principled MSPs have already voted against it and one has resigned, yet the First Feminist remains determined to undermine the sex-based rights of Scottish girls and women. 2/2


    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1590792815243538432

    Sunak happily signing up to Climate Reparations are a sign of that.
    Eh?

    Rishi Sunak has dealt a blow to the developing countries hardest-hit by climate change by shunning appeals for the UK to contribute towards reparations for the natural disasters caused by hundreds of years of industrial pollution.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/cop27-rishi-sunak-climate-change-b2219819.html?amp
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    Taz said:

    Everything’s going so well:

    .@NicolaSturgeon continues to ignore public opposition and seeks to push through the Gender Recognition Reform Bill in under two weeks, demonstrating once again that she prioritises the approval of lobby groups over Scottish voters' concerns. 1/2

    The polling is clear: this bill is not supported by the public. Principled MSPs have already voted against it and one has resigned, yet the First Feminist remains determined to undermine the sex-based rights of Scottish girls and women. 2/2


    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1590792815243538432

    Sunak happily signing up to Climate Reparations are a sign of that.
    Eh?

    Rishi Sunak has dealt a blow to the developing countries hardest-hit by climate change by shunning appeals for the UK to contribute towards reparations for the natural disasters caused by hundreds of years of industrial pollution.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/cop27-rishi-sunak-climate-change-b2219819.html?amp
    Ah, that was different to what was being briefed at the start of the week.

    Good news for once.


  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,838

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
    Yes, Clinton (H.) might have made a much better president in 2012. Possibly stopped Putin's ambitions with a tougher line in Syria too.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,450

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
    Obama only had 60 seats for a very short time (a GOP governor slow-walked the Al Franken appointment, another senator was very ill, and then they lost a special election) and quite a few of them were unreliable votes who needed a lot of concessions to get them to pass anything. I don't think he'd have had the votes for codifying Roe vs Wade, and voting protections were less important then because they had the Voting Rights Act. (SCOTUS later weakened that on a rather spurious pretext, but they could have done the same to whatever he might have passed.)

    I'm not sure if he could have got some minor gun control through if he'd prioritized it over healthcare but ObamaCare really was a big deal; There were a lot of people with preexisting conditions were totally unable to get health insurance, and if they couldn't get health insurance they couldn't get treated. There's still a lot wrong with their healthcare system but that part was a really important thing to fix.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,438
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Years of experience as a Senator and an ability to schmooze and gain support from moderates have paid off. It simply works better than an aggressive disruptor.
    Also his 8 years in charge of the Senate as VP for Obama. He knows how it works and what is possible. But I still think he should quit whilst he is ahead and not stand again.
    I agree, though our own late Queen is an example of carrying on into a ripe old age.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
    Due to lawsuits and death Obama only had 60 seats for a scant handful of days and almost everyone of those days was spent passing the Affordable Care Act.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Everything’s going so well:

    .@NicolaSturgeon continues to ignore public opposition and seeks to push through the Gender Recognition Reform Bill in under two weeks, demonstrating once again that she prioritises the approval of lobby groups over Scottish voters' concerns. 1/2

    The polling is clear: this bill is not supported by the public. Principled MSPs have already voted against it and one has resigned, yet the First Feminist remains determined to undermine the sex-based rights of Scottish girls and women. 2/2


    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1590792815243538432

    Sunak happily signing up to Climate Reparations are a sign of that.
    Eh?

    Rishi Sunak has dealt a blow to the developing countries hardest-hit by climate change by shunning appeals for the UK to contribute towards reparations for the natural disasters caused by hundreds of years of industrial pollution.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/cop27-rishi-sunak-climate-change-b2219819.html?amp
    Ah, that was different to what was being briefed at the start of the week.

    Good news for once.

    Cumulative U.K. CO2 emissions since the start of the Industrial Revolution are less than 5% of the total in any case. The US & China are orders of magnitude the biggest. Good luck getting them to cough up! Unless you’re a virtue signalling regional politician in search of an international job…..
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,450
    edited November 11
    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
    Yes, Clinton (H.) might have made a much better president in 2012. Possibly stopped Putin's ambitions with a tougher line in Syria too.
    Hillary Clinton was a disastrous Secretary of State, and she'd have been a worse president. Her main contribution was Libya, where they proved to dictators everywhere that there was no point in doing a deal with the US, and the only way to protect yourself was with nuclear weapons.

    There's no reason to think adding Syria to the US's list of wars would have helped deter Putin in Ukraine, and she and Obama just continued the worst-of-all-possible-worlds fence-sitting on Ukraine that got us where we are today, where they talked about the possibility of Nato membership enough to scare Putin and make him want to destabilize them, but not enough to give them any actual help defending themselves.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,506

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to
    pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
    He had 59 seats not 60 no? Which made a massive difference when the movement to abolish the filibuster was still in its infancy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    Days after they win a massive landslide is an odd time to label someone as a lightweight. As for loyalty, attacking someone for not ruling themselves out when you've yet to officially rule yourself in is also rather weird.

    Surely Republican voters will see the reaction as insecure and jealous?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,450
    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to
    pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
    He had 59 seats not 60 no? Which made a massive difference when the movement to abolish the filibuster was still in its infancy.
    He had 60 on paper if you count Connecticut for Lieberman etc but only for a matter of weeks.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,838

    Heathener said:

    Very wise John @DecrepiterJohnL

    To go slightly against what I wrote below, you can get 5-1 on Joe Biden winning the Presidency in 2024. Okay, he 1) might choose not to stand or 2) might fall ill.

    But he's the sitting President, he is very physically fit, the GOP could very well enter a bitter internecine fight, the American economy 'might' be showing signs of picking up.

    5-1 is attractive.

    As I mentioned yesterday, I caution us not to apply UK-centric vision about Biden. Congressmen and women in old age are a different beast from the UK's ageing tory MP's who have gone to seed on too much beef wellington and port. In the US they see it as part of the American dream to drive forward with energy and live long. 'Retirement' is not the utopia for those who believe that hard work is next to godliness. Senator Strom Thurmond retired from Congress at the age of 101, making Joe Biden positively youthful. Okay, so he stumbles over his words sometimes but compared to Donald Trump, Biden is Demosthenes.

    5-1 on Biden to win is a good bet.

    Also, Biden (D) may be facing DeSantis (R) and Trump (I)
    Unlikely? I think Trump will do a deal with De Sanctimonious when he realises he's not going to win the nomination. Surely he's not going to run as an independent except as a money-making scam. OK so maybe not that unlikely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    TimS said:

    It’s strange watching the Ukraine war unfold the way it has done.

    For most of my adult life, indeed probably my entire life, wars were generally either asymmetric affairs between a large imperial power and a guerrilla force in a weaker country, or civil wars within smaller nations.

    Here we have an archetype of an early 20th century war. 2 nations fighting over territory with artillery, tanks and missiles. With a few drones thrown in for 21st century flavour. The last ever traditional territorial war in human history.

    Trenches, attacks and counterattacks, towns being occupied then liberated, annexations, sieges, retreats, PoWs. And the casualty figures are huge and tragic. I read the reports from Kherson and wonder what it must feel like to be a soldier, trapped by the riverside, artillery fire raining down, not knowing whether I’ll survive the night. It doesn’t bear thinking about.

    This war was completely avoidable, a war of choice based on a deluded vision and
    nostalgia for empire. I really hope it’s the last such event.

    If Russia gains from it, it won't be.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    Very wise John @DecrepiterJohnL

    To go slightly against what I wrote below, you can get 5-1 on Joe Biden winning the Presidency in 2024. Okay, he 1) might choose not to stand or 2) might fall ill.

    But he's the sitting President, he is very physically fit, the GOP could very well enter a bitter internecine fight, the American economy 'might' be showing signs of picking up.

    5-1 is attractive.

    As I mentioned yesterday, I caution us not to apply UK-centric vision about Biden. Congressmen and women in old age are a different beast from the UK's ageing tory MP's who have gone to seed on too much beef wellington and port. In the US they see it as part of the American dream to drive forward with energy and live long. 'Retirement' is not the utopia for those who believe that hard work is next to godliness. Senator Strom Thurmond retired from Congress at the age of 101, making Joe Biden positively youthful. Okay, so he stumbles over his words sometimes but compared to Donald Trump, Biden is Demosthenes.

    5-1 on Biden to win is a good bet.

    Also, Biden (D) may be facing DeSantis (R) and Trump (I)
    Unlikely? I think Trump will do a deal with De Sanctimonious when he realises he's not going to win the nomination. Surely he's not going to run as an independent except as a money-making scam. OK so maybe not that unlikely.
    He ran for President in 2016 as a money making scam. He was as surprised as anyone when he won.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,222
    MaxPB said:

    ping said:

    UK GDP -0.2% (YoY, July - September)

    The gloom continues.

    Well above expectations. Market has it as -0.6% so expecting a real downturn, not just a minor one. We may now just see two quarters of minor recession with inflation falling by Q2 next year bringing relief for households and businesses. The Bank of England's doom forecast of a 2 year recession doesn't look realistic. They're suffering from Davos group think.
    If it hadn't been for the Queen's death (to keep @TOPPING happy) we might well have not been in recession at all. Forecasts of a large increase in unemployment seem wide of the mark.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,143
    DavidL said:

    The wave of job cuts across the technology industry is a particular concern for Ireland and its finances, thanks to its huge exposure to tax revenue from multinational corporations.

    The announcement from Meta Platforms Inc. that it’s cutting 13% of its workforce -- which would equate to about 350 roles in Ireland -- followed news of huge reductions at Stripe Inc. and Twitter Inc. That’s hundreds of jobs lost or at risk within days, with more expected.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-11/ireland-s-financial-blind-spot-hit-by-mass-tech-job-cuts?leadSource=uverify wall

    I think that may well prove optimistic. The cuts do not have to be on a pro rata basis. There were rumours that Google might come out of Dublin entirely which is something like 3k jobs. These are the risks of a branch economy in hard times. It is a risk that the UK faces too with so much of our production now owned by foreign interests.
    I'm told that Meta UK doesn't face a huge proportion of those cuts which are happening to SG&A (Ireland) rather than the core tech development (UK).

    I think this will be the case across tech companies. There's a lot of fat to trim in revenue maintenance/operations which frees up cash for investment in the core product. The UK is probably best placed to benefit from this in Europe. Mainly because the UK serves as development hub for most American big tech and well over half of all European start ups. Branch offices that are selling or marketing locally will face very large cuts.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,693

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Everything’s going so well:

    .@NicolaSturgeon continues to ignore public opposition and seeks to push through the Gender Recognition Reform Bill in under two weeks, demonstrating once again that she prioritises the approval of lobby groups over Scottish voters' concerns. 1/2

    The polling is clear: this bill is not supported by the public. Principled MSPs have already voted against it and one has resigned, yet the First Feminist remains determined to undermine the sex-based rights of Scottish girls and women. 2/2


    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1590792815243538432

    Sunak happily signing up to Climate Reparations are a sign of that.
    Eh?

    Rishi Sunak has dealt a blow to the developing countries hardest-hit by climate change by shunning appeals for the UK to contribute towards reparations for the natural disasters caused by hundreds of years of industrial pollution.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/cop27-rishi-sunak-climate-change-b2219819.html?amp
    Ah, that was different to what was being briefed at the start of the week.

    Good news for once.

    Cumulative U.K. CO2 emissions since the start of the Industrial Revolution are less than 5% of the total in any case. The US & China are orders of magnitude the biggest. Good luck getting them to cough up! Unless you’re a virtue signalling regional politician in search of an international job…..
    What about per capita? And what about us offloading much of our carbon emissions onto China?

    There is a fairness thing here. We've benefited from the peak of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, and the trough in emissions we are in now in is only partly a result of making our economy more 'green'.

    I don't think reparations are the answer though
    The best thing we can do is to divert investment into cheap green tech so as to allow developing countries to flatten the carbon curve as they become richer. Cheap electric cars, wind turbines etc
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,838

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    Joe Biden: "The Most Underrated Presidency in Recent History" by Julain Zelizer for CNN.

    "President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/biden-midterms-underestimated-zelizer/index.html

    One for @MikeSmithson to take note of.

    Joe Biden will stand again, unopposed. And he will probably win again in 2024.

    Yes, but it’s because the GOP overreached and are self-destructing rather than down to Biden’s political genius?
    Genius is putting it a bit strong, but his legislative achievements, considering the slim to non existent Senate majority, are considerable.
    And the administration has pursued a notably effective foreign policy. How much of that is Biden, and how much his team, is an interesting question.
    The legislative achievements are particularly notable and summarised here:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/biden-laws-passed-priorities-to-get-done-executive-orders/index.html

    He has been astute enough to recognise that he had a narrow window of opportunity before these elections and legislation may be much more difficult after them. In fact, it may not be as difficult as he anticipated if the Senate remains level but he was right to move fast.
    Indeed - compare and contrast to Obama who had 60 senate seats (!) and a big house majority in his first two years but only managed to pass a half-baked health reform. Would have been a great time to pass voting protections, get Roe v Wade into law, sensible gun control, etc. A shocking waste in hindsight.
    Yes, Clinton (H.) might have made a much better president in 2012. Possibly stopped Putin's ambitions with a tougher line in Syria too.
    Hillary Clinton was a disastrous Secretary of State, and she'd have been a worse president. Her main contribution was Libya, where they proved to dictators everywhere that there was no point in doing a deal with the US, and the only way to protect yourself was with nuclear weapons.

    There's no reason to think adding Syria to the US's list of wars would have helped deter Putin in Ukraine, and she and Obama just continued the worst-of-all-possible-worlds fence-sitting on Ukraine that got us where we are today, where they talked about the possibility of Nato membership enough to scare Putin and make him want to destabilize them, but not enough to give them any actual help defending themselves.
    Surely Obama must take most of the blame for foreign policy while he was president? Weird how people give him a free pass, while calling Clinton a disaster for things that happened under his presidency. I mean, much as I dislike Jack Straw, it would be weird to blame him for the invasion of Iraq but not Tony Blair.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,705
    edited November 11
    Trying to decide on a battery to retrofit to my ~ 7 year old solar system.

    It needs to be AC coupled so I can keep my FIT as is.

    Options seem to be

    Lux/pylontech 7.2 kw £5,500
    Growatt 6.5 kw £4,400
    Sunsynk 5.12 kw £5,500

    Reading around online the Sunsynk seems to have better reviews than the growatt. Dunno if that outweighs the price difference though.
    Anyone have experience of these batteries ?
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