Government egg subsidy required. My eggs have gone up again. Full subsidised rationing now!
No eggs left in the supermarket last week. Speaking of which, if my own bills are representative, less well-off people are facing inflation on food and staples running higher than 10 per cent.
Way higher than 10%. I think milk has increased by 70% over the year used to be £2 for 4 litres at the corner shop now it’s £1.75 for 2 litres.
Had a funny conversation yesterday. Chap I row with was telling me that (a) his daughter was making good money working in the student Union bar, unlike in his day and (b) the price of everything is rocketing.
I actually had to join the dots…
I estimate my food bill is up 20% over the past year
Government egg subsidy required. My eggs have gone up again. Full subsidised rationing now!
No eggs left in the supermarket last week. Speaking of which, if my own bills are representative, less well-off people are facing inflation on food and staples running higher than 10 per cent.
Thrift skills are at a premium for the next decade imo. Yay for me, i was raised in thriftsville
Sky tv has had 250000 cancellations recently...if it helps burst the premier league bubble all to the good
Just got back from my run, it is 22 degrees here, the marathoners (which includes my daughter’s Grade 2 teacher) are going to swelter.
I’m not sure what the thread header is supposed to be; is it about how crap the Tories are?
The next Labour campaign writes itself.
Tax at 80 yr high. Failing public services. Longest recession in history. Slowest growth in the G7.
The Tories: Don’t risk another 5 years of this shit.
It could all get a lot worse. Don't forget that
AI is just one of the threats, there are so many
"If A.I. is going to destroy most routine, cognitive, and even creative jobs, eventually you’ll have a problem. Massive technological unemployment is permanent for people, and it’s not their fault. This is not because they didn’t study hard enough; it’s not that they were lazy and didn’t want to work, they’re just having bad luck. Their job, their income, their sector, their firm, even their whole industry could essentially be replaced by A.I. machine learning."
I mean, it’s a very dystopian world in which people don’t have jobs, they don’t have skills, they don’t have income. What do they do all day long? They play video games, they are incels because they can’t even find a mate, and they do drugs, and then they die. It’s happening already now."
Of course it could get worse. If the Tories win the next election, for example. Or, shudder, if Trump returns in the US.
Neither Tories nor Trump give the tiniest of shits about the issues Roubini talks about.
That's idiotic hyperbole. Of course Tories give a fuck about climate change. Not least because climate change is a driver of migration, which is only going to get worse
Of the 2.5 major parties, the Tories care least, and this is even more obvious under Rishi who seems to just noticed this week that the environment is a thing.
Just got back from my run, it is 22 degrees here, the marathoners (which includes my daughter’s Grade 2 teacher) are going to swelter.
I’m not sure what the thread header is supposed to be; is it about how crap the Tories are?
The next Labour campaign writes itself.
Tax at 80 yr high. Failing public services. Longest recession in history. Slowest growth in the G7.
The Tories: Don’t risk another 5 years of this shit.
It could all get a lot worse. Don't forget that
AI is just one of the threats, there are so many
"If A.I. is going to destroy most routine, cognitive, and even creative jobs, eventually you’ll have a problem. Massive technological unemployment is permanent for people, and it’s not their fault. This is not because they didn’t study hard enough; it’s not that they were lazy and didn’t want to work, they’re just having bad luck. Their job, their income, their sector, their firm, even their whole industry could essentially be replaced by A.I. machine learning."
I mean, it’s a very dystopian world in which people don’t have jobs, they don’t have skills, they don’t have income. What do they do all day long? They play video games, they are incels because they can’t even find a mate, and they do drugs, and then they die. It’s happening already now."
Of course it could get worse. If the Tories win the next election, for example. Or, shudder, if Trump returns in the US.
Neither Tories nor Trump give the tiniest of shits about the issues Roubini talks about.
That's idiotic hyperbole. Of course Tories give a fuck about climate change. Not least because climate change is a driver of migration, which is only going to get worse
All governments in the U.K. have probably given a fuck about climate change, consistently and for decades. Hence the net zero target being possible. Hence Dogger Bank filling up with wind turbines etc etc…
You can argue they should have given more of a fuck.
But, collectively, these governments did more than a number of European peers, for example.
Rain, war, poverty, dead Queen, end of civilisation, Finito
Personally I feel like I have woken up the morning after a 30 year party, the house is littered with broken fragments from last night.
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
I think we can be more precise
From the first Stone Roses album to the referendum on Scottish independence
1989 to 2014. A quarter of a century of rising prosperity, globalisation, greater freedom, spreading democracy
Then came Wokeness, the Brexit vote (divisive even if you voted Leave), the rise of Xi, the new autocracy, Donald Trump, the horror of Covid, the Ukraine war.... relentless
Absolute insanity. Good job they are a long way from power!
why is it insanity? We had Miras in the past. The hike in energy bills has resulted in energy subsidies.
People with mortgages have had historically exceptionally low rates for years. It couldn't go on for ever. People need to take responsibility for their financial decisions including mortgages. The State can't pay for everything!
They should but they wont...expect endless hard luck stories on the news and martin lewis demanding a bail out for mortgage holders
Government egg subsidy required. My eggs have gone up again. Full subsidised rationing now!
No eggs left in the supermarket last week. Speaking of which, if my own bills are representative, less well-off people are facing inflation on food and staples running higher than 10 per cent.
Thrift skills are at a premium for the next decade imo. Yay for me, i was raised in thriftsville
Sky tv has had 250000 cancellations recently...if it helps burst the premier league bubble all to the good
As per CoL I renegotiated with Sky a few months back. Slashed the bill, which includes broadband, and now have a Sky Glass TV. I rate it. No more need for lots of different cables and boxes, decent sound (TV is 6 cm thick with built in sound that is better than the standard flat tvs), one remote, one Ethernet feed. A few glitches from time to time, not major. All in all I recommend it.
Why doesn't the clock stop when refs are setting scrums? Drives me mad. Entre chunks of an 80 minute game are spent looking at packs doing nothing in the mud
Sorry about the bonkers url but it hopefully gets past the paywall. Really interesting long read suggesting we are winning a bit more than looked likely 10 years ago.
Rain, war, poverty, dead Queen, end of civilisation, Finito
Personally I feel like I have woken up the morning after a 30 year party, the house is littered with broken fragments from last night.
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
Based on cheap credit and cheap energy both of which have gone into reverse....i always look at old photos and one thing stands out that people looked a lot more serious and sober than they do now...they had to be...life was much tougher and the state didnt bail people out....
Rain, war, poverty, dead Queen, end of civilisation, Finito
Personally I feel like I have woken up the morning after a 30 year party, the house is littered with broken fragments from last night.
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
I think we can be more precise
From the first Stone Roses album to the referendum on Scottish independence
1989 to 2014. A quarter of a century of rising prosperity, globalisation, greater freedom, spreading democracy
Then came Wokeness, the Brexit vote (divisive even if you voted Leave), the rise of Xi, the new autocracy, Donald Trump, the horror of Covid, the Ukraine war.... relentless
It’s mostly just the US doing its decline and fall bit really.
Rain, war, poverty, dead Queen, end of civilisation, Finito
Personally I feel like I have woken up the morning after a 30 year party, the house is littered with broken fragments from last night.
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
I think we can be more precise
From the first Stone Roses album to the referendum on Scottish independence
1989 to 2014. A quarter of a century of rising prosperity, globalisation, greater freedom, spreading democracy
Then came Wokeness, the Brexit vote (divisive even if you voted Leave), the rise of Xi, the new autocracy, Donald Trump, the horror of Covid, the Ukraine war.... relentless
It’s mostly just the US doing its decline and fall bit really.
The us on which much of the prosperity of se england depends from us banks and tech companies etc
Rain, war, poverty, dead Queen, end of civilisation, Finito
Personally I feel like I have woken up the morning after a 30 year party, the house is littered with broken fragments from last night.
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
I think we can be more precise
From the first Stone Roses album to the referendum on Scottish independence
1989 to 2014. A quarter of a century of rising prosperity, globalisation, greater freedom, spreading democracy
Then came Wokeness, the Brexit vote (divisive even if you voted Leave), the rise of Xi, the new autocracy, Donald Trump, the horror of Covid, the Ukraine war.... relentless
It’s mostly just the US doing its decline and fall bit really.
The us on which much of the prosperity of se england depends from us banks and tech companies etc
I'm not suggesting the process is a pretty one for those around and about.
Just got back from my run, it is 22 degrees here, the marathoners (which includes my daughter’s Grade 2 teacher) are going to swelter.
I’m not sure what the thread header is supposed to be; is it about how crap the Tories are?
The next Labour campaign writes itself.
Tax at 80 yr high. Failing public services. Longest recession in history. Slowest growth in the G7.
The Tories: Don’t risk another 5 years of this shit.
It could all get a lot worse. Don't forget that
AI is just one of the threats, there are so many
"If A.I. is going to destroy most routine, cognitive, and even creative jobs, eventually you’ll have a problem. Massive technological unemployment is permanent for people, and it’s not their fault. This is not because they didn’t study hard enough; it’s not that they were lazy and didn’t want to work, they’re just having bad luck. Their job, their income, their sector, their firm, even their whole industry could essentially be replaced by A.I. machine learning."
I mean, it’s a very dystopian world in which people don’t have jobs, they don’t have skills, they don’t have income. What do they do all day long? They play video games, they are incels because they can’t even find a mate, and they do drugs, and then they die. It’s happening already now."
Of course it could get worse. If the Tories win the next election, for example. Or, shudder, if Trump returns in the US.
Neither Tories nor Trump give the tiniest of shits about the issues Roubini talks about.
That's idiotic hyperbole. Of course Tories give a fuck about climate change. Not least because climate change is a driver of migration, which is only going to get worse
Of the 2.5 major parties, the Tories care least, and this is even more obvious under Rishi who seems to just noticed this week that the environment is a thing.
Don't believe that, him being an instinctively Californian father of near-teen daughters. He is an instinctive COP27er, at odds with a lot of frackers and burners.
Why doesn't the clock stop when refs are setting scrums? Drives me mad. Entre chunks of an 80 minute game are spent looking at packs doing nothing in the mud
Then it collapses and a random penalty is awarded. Why don't they toss a coin for the penalty to save time?
Just got back from my run, it is 22 degrees here, the marathoners (which includes my daughter’s Grade 2 teacher) are going to swelter.
I’m not sure what the thread header is supposed to be; is it about how crap the Tories are?
The next Labour campaign writes itself.
Tax at 80 yr high. Failing public services. Longest recession in history. Slowest growth in the G7.
The Tories: Don’t risk another 5 years of this shit.
It could all get a lot worse. Don't forget that
AI is just one of the threats, there are so many
"If A.I. is going to destroy most routine, cognitive, and even creative jobs, eventually you’ll have a problem. Massive technological unemployment is permanent for people, and it’s not their fault. This is not because they didn’t study hard enough; it’s not that they were lazy and didn’t want to work, they’re just having bad luck. Their job, their income, their sector, their firm, even their whole industry could essentially be replaced by A.I. machine learning."
I mean, it’s a very dystopian world in which people don’t have jobs, they don’t have skills, they don’t have income. What do they do all day long? They play video games, they are incels because they can’t even find a mate, and they do drugs, and then they die. It’s happening already now."
Of course it could get worse. If the Tories win the next election, for example. Or, shudder, if Trump returns in the US.
Neither Tories nor Trump give the tiniest of shits about the issues Roubini talks about.
That's idiotic hyperbole. Of course Tories give a fuck about climate change. Not least because climate change is a driver of migration, which is only going to get worse
Of the 2.5 major parties, the Tories care least, and this is even more obvious under Rishi who seems to just noticed this week that the environment is a thing.
Don't believe that, him being an instinctively Californian father of near-teen daughters. He is an instinctive COP27er, at odds with a lot of frackers and burners.
The government (and previous governments) have closer target dates for net zero, ending ICE sales etc than a number of similar countries.
Attendance at COO27 is largely about encouraging others to take the same stances.
Why doesn't the clock stop when refs are setting scrums? Drives me mad. Entre chunks of an 80 minute game are spent looking at packs doing nothing in the mud
Then it collapses and a random penalty awarded. Why they don't toss a coin for the penalty to save time?
The award of pens for scrum offences is part of the problem. Downgrade most scrum offences to free kick and you would have less issues. If you’ve never played in the scrum, it is knackering. The only time I played in a game with uncontested scrums, I was amazed how much less tired I was at the end. Which is a long winded way of saying scrums are important to the very nature of the game.
As I said on the previous thread we are about to have an eyewatering budget that will upset a lot of people.
Will the general public accept that this is Hunt/Sunak telling it as it is or will they blame them for the very unfortunate consequences of past mistakes? It is possible the lead on the economy will not survive next week. The polling indicates most people are delusional about where we are.
Firstly, this year there has been a lot of blaming the Tory party for economic bungling… by the Tory Party. So much blue on blue for months now. The conclusion is, why shouldn’t voters blame the Tories for mistakes?
Secondly what makes you or anyone believe Sunak’s growth killing, tax raising budget is the right thing to do right now? Politically he’s ensured the Tories fight the next election on highest tax take for 80 years, 2 years of poor growth if not recession and likely lowest growth in G7 as predicted. There might even be a contentious whiff on unfair austerity in the air. Political suicide plan, but is it even smart economics?
If, as DavidL noted above, the government are committed to reducing debt to GDP and growth is expected to be negative, Rishi/Hunt are embarked on some kind of 1930s style contraction.
I’m arguing it’s poor politics for sure, but asking the question is it also bad economics. Is the path of QT and austerity during the recession years they have chosen even correct?
It’s dumb politics so far because the 45 days of Truss did not cause the changed economic circumstances of higher interest rates and borrowing costs, these things are international and have been on the way for a long time. Hunt and Sunak cannot even be straight with the voters what has caused the £50bn deficit, truth is it’s the price of THEIR OWN policies, policies they are running with such as the most expensive form of household energy bill help, with separate assistance to businesses and industry, borrowing costs for such long period of furlough, and eat out to help out money pits that were bought on the credit card and maxxed our credit limit. That’s the £50+ deficit right there.
Conclusion. Hunt and Sunak, PB Tories and Tories everywhere continually blaming previous Tory leaders for a mess to sort out, is neither economically true AND means the Tory Party gets more blame than necessary from British voters for what is an international situation.
You wanna know the daft mistake they are making that’s puts them low in the polls still? i just explained it. If Tories blame Tories for economic illiteracy, the voters will think the Tory party option on ballot paper is the economic illiterate one - the kicker being the pain voters will feel was actually from an international situation whilst the Tory party has been ensuring they get the blame instead.
It will be interesting to hear Sunak and Hunt explain and defend the path of QT and austerity during the recession years they chose, other than simply try to blame it on Truss and Kwarteng messing up. You see the point I’m making? The central plank of communication from Sunak and Hunt in recent weeks has been diabolical.
Yep. Direct contrast with Sunak saying that government cannot solve all problems. At some point interests rates were going to go up. If you borrowed a lot of money without stress checking the repayment, then more fool you.
Anecdotally from listening to the radio the number of people who have borrowed to the hilt whilst interest rates have been at centuries-long lows is disturbing. Of course they all want government help now, despite the fact that they should have been through a whole bunch of affordability tests to ensure they could pay their mortgage when rates rise back towards levels that are still historically low.
I remember looking at mortgage payments in the early 2000s and figuring it if we could meet the payments if the rates doubled or even tripled, because those were levels that were entirely plausible for at least short periods of time. If lenders and borrowers aren't asking such questions today then the system is broken.
Just got back from my run, it is 22 degrees here, the marathoners (which includes my daughter’s Grade 2 teacher) are going to swelter.
I’m not sure what the thread header is supposed to be; is it about how crap the Tories are?
The next Labour campaign writes itself.
Tax at 80 yr high. Failing public services. Longest recession in history. Slowest growth in the G7.
The Tories: Don’t risk another 5 years of this shit.
It could all get a lot worse. Don't forget that
AI is just one of the threats, there are so many
"If A.I. is going to destroy most routine, cognitive, and even creative jobs, eventually you’ll have a problem. Massive technological unemployment is permanent for people, and it’s not their fault. This is not because they didn’t study hard enough; it’s not that they were lazy and didn’t want to work, they’re just having bad luck. Their job, their income, their sector, their firm, even their whole industry could essentially be replaced by A.I. machine learning."
I mean, it’s a very dystopian world in which people don’t have jobs, they don’t have skills, they don’t have income. What do they do all day long? They play video games, they are incels because they can’t even find a mate, and they do drugs, and then they die. It’s happening already now."
Of course it could get worse. If the Tories win the next election, for example. Or, shudder, if Trump returns in the US.
Neither Tories nor Trump give the tiniest of shits about the issues Roubini talks about.
That's idiotic hyperbole. Of course Tories give a fuck about climate change. Not least because climate change is a driver of migration, which is only going to get worse
Where did you get the bizarre idea that Tories don’t like migration?
Tories love migration. How can you stir people up by being rabidly anti-migration, without migration?
Just got back from my run, it is 22 degrees here, the marathoners (which includes my daughter’s Grade 2 teacher) are going to swelter.
I’m not sure what the thread header is supposed to be; is it about how crap the Tories are?
The next Labour campaign writes itself.
Tax at 80 yr high. Failing public services. Longest recession in history. Slowest growth in the G7.
The Tories: Don’t risk another 5 years of this shit.
It could all get a lot worse. Don't forget that
AI is just one of the threats, there are so many
"If A.I. is going to destroy most routine, cognitive, and even creative jobs, eventually you’ll have a problem. Massive technological unemployment is permanent for people, and it’s not their fault. This is not because they didn’t study hard enough; it’s not that they were lazy and didn’t want to work, they’re just having bad luck. Their job, their income, their sector, their firm, even their whole industry could essentially be replaced by A.I. machine learning."
I mean, it’s a very dystopian world in which people don’t have jobs, they don’t have skills, they don’t have income. What do they do all day long? They play video games, they are incels because they can’t even find a mate, and they do drugs, and then they die. It’s happening already now."
Of course it could get worse. If the Tories win the next election, for example. Or, shudder, if Trump returns in the US.
Neither Tories nor Trump give the tiniest of shits about the issues Roubini talks about.
That's idiotic hyperbole. Of course Tories give a fuck about climate change. Not least because climate change is a driver of migration, which is only going to get worse
All governments in the U.K. have probably given a fuck about climate change, consistently and for decades. Hence the net zero target being possible. Hence Dogger Bank filling up with wind turbines etc etc…
You can argue they should have given more of a fuck.
But, collectively, these governments did more than a number of European peers, for example.
Yes, there are Tories who don't give a crap, but you also find many who care about it a great deal, and lots of others who are trying to do something even if some want them to do more.
Yep. Direct contrast with Sunak saying that government cannot solve all problems. At some point interests rates were going to go up. If you borrowed a lot of money without stress checking the repayment, then more fool you.
Anecdotally from listening to the radio the number of people who have borrowed to the hilt whilst interest rates have been at centuries-long lows is disturbing. Of course they all want government help now, despite the fact that they should have been through a whole bunch of affordability tests to ensure they could pay their mortgage when rates rise back towards levels that are still historically low.
I remember looking at mortgage payments in the early 2000s and figuring it if we could meet the payments if the rates doubled or even tripled, because those were levels that were entirely plausible for at least short periods of time. If lenders and borrowers aren't asking such questions today then the system is broken.
The Government wrote a tickbox exercise - all borrowers passed that exercise so it's not the problem of the bank.
Just got back from my run, it is 22 degrees here, the marathoners (which includes my daughter’s Grade 2 teacher) are going to swelter.
I’m not sure what the thread header is supposed to be; is it about how crap the Tories are?
The next Labour campaign writes itself.
Tax at 80 yr high. Failing public services. Longest recession in history. Slowest growth in the G7.
The Tories: Don’t risk another 5 years of this shit.
It could all get a lot worse. Don't forget that
AI is just one of the threats, there are so many
"If A.I. is going to destroy most routine, cognitive, and even creative jobs, eventually you’ll have a problem. Massive technological unemployment is permanent for people, and it’s not their fault. This is not because they didn’t study hard enough; it’s not that they were lazy and didn’t want to work, they’re just having bad luck. Their job, their income, their sector, their firm, even their whole industry could essentially be replaced by A.I. machine learning."
I mean, it’s a very dystopian world in which people don’t have jobs, they don’t have skills, they don’t have income. What do they do all day long? They play video games, they are incels because they can’t even find a mate, and they do drugs, and then they die. It’s happening already now."
Of course it could get worse. If the Tories win the next election, for example. Or, shudder, if Trump returns in the US.
Neither Tories nor Trump give the tiniest of shits about the issues Roubini talks about.
That's idiotic hyperbole. Of course Tories give a fuck about climate change. Not least because climate change is a driver of migration, which is only going to get worse
Of the 2.5 major parties, the Tories care least, and this is even more obvious under Rishi who seems to just noticed this week that the environment is a thing.
Don't believe that, him being an instinctively Californian father of near-teen daughters. He is an instinctive COP27er, at odds with a lot of frackers and burners.
The government (and previous governments) have closer target dates for net zero, ending ICE sales etc than a number of similar countries.
Attendance at COO27 is largely about encouraging others to take the same stances.
So they can enjoy the same energy security/prices and economical stability that we have managed?
Yep. Direct contrast with Sunak saying that government cannot solve all problems. At some point interests rates were going to go up. If you borrowed a lot of money without stress checking the repayment, then more fool you.
Anecdotally from listening to the radio the number of people who have borrowed to the hilt whilst interest rates have been at centuries-long lows is disturbing. Of course they all want government help now, despite the fact that they should have been through a whole bunch of affordability tests to ensure they could pay their mortgage when rates rise back towards levels that are still historically low.
I remember looking at mortgage payments in the early 2000s and figuring it if we could meet the payments if the rates doubled or even tripled, because those were levels that were entirely plausible for at least short periods of time. If lenders and borrowers aren't asking such questions today then the system is broken.
If you continually bail people out they just take on more risk just like the bankers did...sunak should specifically say now there will be no bailout for mortgage holders before the bleating and hard luck stories start
Government egg subsidy required. My eggs have gone up again. Full subsidised rationing now!
No eggs left in the supermarket last week. Speaking of which, if my own bills are representative, less well-off people are facing inflation on food and staples running higher than 10 per cent.
Thrift skills are at a premium for the next decade imo. Yay for me, i was raised in thriftsville
Sky tv has had 250000 cancellations recently...if it helps burst the premier league bubble all to the good
As per CoL I renegotiated with Sky a few months back. Slashed the bill, which includes broadband, and now have a Sky Glass TV. I rate it. No more need for lots of different cables and boxes, decent sound (TV is 6 cm thick with built in sound that is better than the standard flat tvs), one remote, one Ethernet feed. A few glitches from time to time, not major. All in all I recommend it.
other than the fact that Sky Glass TVs really aren't that great and you a tied into them.
Sky Stream with a good TV from a decent brand is a better deal and probably not much different in price.
As I said on the previous thread we are about to have an eyewatering budget that will upset a lot of people.
Will the general public accept that this is Hunt/Sunak telling it as it is or will they blame them for the very unfortunate consequences of past mistakes? It is possible the lead on the economy will not survive next week. The polling indicates most people are delusional about where we are.
Firstly, this year there has been a lot of blaming the Tory party for economic bungling… by the Tory Party. So much blue on blue for months now. The conclusion is, why shouldn’t voters blame the Tories for mistakes?
Secondly what makes you or anyone believe Sunak’s growth killing, tax raising budget is the right thing to do right now? Politically he’s ensured the Tories fight the next election on highest tax take for 80 years, 2 years of poor growth if not recession and likely lowest growth in G7 as predicted. There might even be a contentious whiff on unfair austerity in the air. Political suicide plan, but is it even smart economics?
If, as DavidL noted above, the government are committed to reducing debt to GDP and growth is expected to be negative, Rishi/Hunt are embarked on some kind of 1930s style contraction.
I’m arguing it’s poor politics for sure, but asking the question is it also bad economics. Is the path of QT and austerity during the recession years they have chosen even correct?
It’s dumb politics so far because the 45 days of Truss did not cause the changed economic circumstances of higher interest rates and borrowing costs, these things are international and have been on the way for a long time. Hunt and Sunak cannot even be straight with the voters what has caused the £50bn deficit, truth is it’s the price of THEIR OWN policies, policies they are running with such as the most expensive form of household energy bill help, with separate assistance to businesses and industry, borrowing costs for such long period of furlough, and eat out to help out money pits that were bought on the credit card and maxxed our credit limit. That’s the £50+ deficit right there.
Conclusion. Hunt and Sunak, PB Tories and Tories everywhere continually blaming previous Tory leaders for a mess to sort out, is neither economically true AND means the Tory Party gets more blame than necessary from British voters for what is an international situation.
You wanna know the daft mistake they are making that’s puts them low in the polls still? i just explained it. If Tories blame Tories for economic illiteracy, the voters will think the Tory party option on ballot paper is the economic illiterate one - the kicker being the pain voters will feel was actually from an international situation whilst the Tory party has been ensuring they get the blame instead.
It will be interesting to hear Sunak and Hunt explain and defend the path of QT and austerity during the recession years they chose, other than simply try to blame it on Truss and Kwarteng messing up. You see the point I’m making? The central plank of communication from Sunak and Hunt in recent weeks has been diabolical.
49 days of Truss. She was PM for exactly 7 weeks. I looked it up because the Pub Quiz I go to often has a round about the previous month on the first Monday of the month.
Rain, war, poverty, dead Queen, end of civilisation, Finito
Personally I feel like I have woken up the morning after a 30 year party, the house is littered with broken fragments from last night.
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
I think we can be more precise
From the first Stone Roses album to the referendum on Scottish independence
1989 to 2014. A quarter of a century of rising prosperity, globalisation, greater freedom, spreading democracy
Then came Wokeness, the Brexit vote (divisive even if you voted Leave), the rise of Xi, the new autocracy, Donald Trump, the horror of Covid, the Ukraine war.... relentless
1989 (collapse of the Soviet Union) to 2020 (Covid) feels more accurate.
Brexit and Trump and Crimea etc are all morbid symptoms of the past era’s decline.
Definitely feels like we are in something new now.
Rain, war, poverty, dead Queen, end of civilisation, Finito
Personally I feel like I have woken up the morning after a 30 year party, the house is littered with broken fragments from last night.
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
I think we can be more precise
From the first Stone Roses album to the referendum on Scottish independence
1989 to 2014. A quarter of a century of rising prosperity, globalisation, greater freedom, spreading democracy
Then came Wokeness, the Brexit vote (divisive even if you voted Leave), the rise of Xi, the new autocracy, Donald Trump, the horror of Covid, the Ukraine war.... relentless
To add to the feeling of things falling apart, our basement is slowly filling with water. The loss adjuster sent out by our insurers said their contractors won't even look at it for five weeks, suggested we try to find our own. So far people either not interested, give similar crazy lead times, or say they'll come and then don't turn up. I reckon another week or two before the water reaches the electrics.
David Allen Green, the deeply irritating Remoaner lawyer, has "migrated" to Mastodon
Nervously says he will keep Twitter for the odd "broadcast" comment
1/20 he migrates entirely back to Twitter?
When are we setting up Wnkr?
I think they already have. But it's called "Mastodon"
Lol!
it's poignant and bathetic to watch them try and get Mastodon working. They don't seem to have realised what I pointed out earlier on: Mastodon is already seen as a liberal-left Woke Remoanery bubble-chamber, so anyone who disagrees with the Woke perspective on everything will avoid it like the Covid. So there won't be any arguments to be had, and no outrage to be savoured, and no Twitter pile-ons to abhor. Mastodon will be a boxing match with one boxer. It will be a lame-ass failure
Rain, war, poverty, dead Queen, end of civilisation, Finito
Personally I feel like I have woken up the morning after a 30 year party, the house is littered with broken fragments from last night.
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
I think we can be more precise
From the first Stone Roses album to the referendum on Scottish independence
1989 to 2014. A quarter of a century of rising prosperity, globalisation, greater freedom, spreading democracy
Then came Wokeness, the Brexit vote (divisive even if you voted Leave), the rise of Xi, the new autocracy, Donald Trump, the horror of Covid, the Ukraine war.... relentless
1989 (collapse of the Soviet Union) to 2020 (Covid) feels more accurate.
Brexit and Trump and Crimea etc are all morbid symptoms of the past era’s decline.
Definitely feels like we are in something new now.
I had genuinely never heard of Mastodon before this weekend. What was its draw?
Little - except that Twitter is dying and people are looking for a temporary home were Twitter to disappear in an unrepairable way.
Now the odds of that weren't high last week but after Musk fired whole parts of the System Response Engineers on Friday that risk has increased immeasurably.
Just got back from my run, it is 22 degrees here, the marathoners (which includes my daughter’s Grade 2 teacher) are going to swelter.
I’m not sure what the thread header is supposed to be; is it about how crap the Tories are?
The next Labour campaign writes itself.
Tax at 80 yr high. Failing public services. Longest recession in history. Slowest growth in the G7.
The Tories: Don’t risk another 5 years of this shit.
It could all get a lot worse. Don't forget that
AI is just one of the threats, there are so many
"If A.I. is going to destroy most routine, cognitive, and even creative jobs, eventually you’ll have a problem. Massive technological unemployment is permanent for people, and it’s not their fault. This is not because they didn’t study hard enough; it’s not that they were lazy and didn’t want to work, they’re just having bad luck. Their job, their income, their sector, their firm, even their whole industry could essentially be replaced by A.I. machine learning."
I mean, it’s a very dystopian world in which people don’t have jobs, they don’t have skills, they don’t have income. What do they do all day long? They play video games, they are incels because they can’t even find a mate, and they do drugs, and then they die. It’s happening already now."
Of course it could get worse. If the Tories win the next election, for example. Or, shudder, if Trump returns in the US.
Neither Tories nor Trump give the tiniest of shits about the issues Roubini talks about.
That's idiotic hyperbole. Of course Tories give a fuck about climate change. Not least because climate change is a driver of migration, which is only going to get worse
Of the 2.5 major parties, the Tories care least, and this is even more obvious under Rishi who seems to just noticed this week that the environment is a thing.
Don't believe that, him being an instinctively Californian father of near-teen daughters. He is an instinctive COP27er, at odds with a lot of frackers and burners.
The government (and previous governments) have closer target dates for net zero, ending ICE sales etc than a number of similar countries.
Attendance at COO27 is largely about encouraging others to take the same stances.
So they can enjoy the same energy security/prices and economical stability that we have managed?
Have you talked to some Germans about their worst case for this winter?
They are shitting bricks. This is because they have found out that depending on demented fuckwits for your energy supply is a poor plan.
To be fair, there was only the history of energy production since about 1895 to inform them of the potential downsides….
I had genuinely never heard of Mastodon before this weekend. What was its draw?
Little - except that Twitter is dying and people are looking for a temporary home were Twitter to disappear in an unrepairable way.
Now the odds of that weren't high last week but after Musk fired whole parts of the System Response Engineers on Friday that risk has increased immeasurably.
Rumours are that people have been fired after there were some really stupid metrics used to rank them, like the number of lines of code written or the number of commits they have made. That would be like assessing whether someone is a good tailor by the number of stitches or amount of material they used. Some of the best developers will effectively write negative lines of code due to refactoring, or write very few but of critical importantce if they are a security engineer. There are even rumours of people being offered their jobs again as the impact of the crude cull has now been realised.
I'm actually on Signal talking a friend through how to set up a mastodon account and it feels like I'm giving instructions for defusing a bomb. Except I don't know how to defuse bombs.
David Allen Green, the deeply irritating Remoaner lawyer, has "migrated" to Mastodon
Nervously says he will keep Twitter for the odd "broadcast" comment
1/20 he migrates entirely back to Twitter?
When are we setting up Wnkr?
I think they already have. But it's called "Mastodon"
Lol!
it's poignant and bathetic to watch them try and get Mastodon working. They don't seem to have realised what I pointed out earlier on: Mastodon is already seen as a liberal-left Woke Remoanery bubble-chamber, so anyone who disagrees with the Woke perspective on everything will avoid it like the Covid. So there won't be any arguments to be had, and no outrage to be savoured, and no Twitter pile-ons to abhor. Mastodon will be a boxing match with one boxer. It will be a lame-ass failure
Wrong
The problem with Mastadon is the lack of moderation. Unless you wall yourself off, in a moderated server.
The history of such concepts suggests that it will either rapidly implode under the weight of scum posting vile shit, or fragment into a large number of walled gardens, not communicating. Or both.
Sorry about the bonkers url but it hopefully gets past the paywall. Really interesting long read suggesting we are winning a bit more than looked likely 10 years ago.
Yes that's the good news, but .. "Canadian atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe, a lead chapter author on several National Climate Assessments and an evangelical Christian who has gained a reputation as a sort of climate whisperer to the center-right. The bad news, she says, is that we have been “systematically underestimating the rate and magnitude of extremes.” Even if temperature rise is limited to two degrees, she says, “the extremes might be what you would have projected for four to five.”
I had genuinely never heard of Mastodon before this weekend. What was its draw?
Little - except that Twitter is dying and people are looking for a temporary home were Twitter to disappear in an unrepairable way.
Now the odds of that weren't high last week but after Musk fired whole parts of the System Response Engineers on Friday that risk has increased immeasurably.
Twitter isn't dying at all. It's a lot of people who don't agree with Musk's views saying "we'll migrate to our own platform!" just as the Trumpers threatened to head to Parler and Truth social but found the platforms utterly unappealing, semi-empty echo chambers.
Once again the intolerant left and intolerant right demonstrating why they're two cheeks of the same arse.
During one of the Brexit debates, there was a point made by an audience member. Something like "I don't care about the GPD, it's not my GDP." And whilst in a well-run country, increasing national prosperity ought to make everyone's pocket that bit fuller, it's fair to say that that hasn't really happened in the UK for quite a while. We can point the finger in all sorts of directions (immigrants, boomers, global plutocrats, Big Avocado), but there's definitely a problem. And stopping all the political lashing out of the last decade depends on solving the problem.
That might be what the polling is saying. Sunak ought to be better at generating more wealth for the nation, but Starmer will do more to divert it towards me.
(It's a bit moot, because we're about to have a painful contraction, and the only question is who should hurt when. But most of the voting public haven't really cottoned on to that yet. Are there any historical examples of a government being rewarded for managing a recession well?)
Yep. Direct contrast with Sunak saying that government cannot solve all problems. At some point interests rates were going to go up. If you borrowed a lot of money without stress checking the repayment, then more fool you.
Anecdotally from listening to the radio the number of people who have borrowed to the hilt whilst interest rates have been at centuries-long lows is disturbing. Of course they all want government help now, despite the fact that they should have been through a whole bunch of affordability tests to ensure they could pay their mortgage when rates rise back towards levels that are still historically low.
I remember looking at mortgage payments in the early 2000s and figuring it if we could meet the payments if the rates doubled or even tripled, because those were levels that were entirely plausible for at least short periods of time. If lenders and borrowers aren't asking such questions today then the system is broken.
The Government wrote a tickbox exercise - all borrowers passed that exercise so it's not the problem of the bank.
Typical of so much in the last couple of decades, the outcome is almost irrelevant so long as the boxes are all ticked.
Rain, war, poverty, dead Queen, end of civilisation, Finito
Personally I feel like I have woken up the morning after a 30 year party, the house is littered with broken fragments from last night.
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
I think we can be more precise
From the first Stone Roses album to the referendum on Scottish independence
1989 to 2014. A quarter of a century of rising prosperity, globalisation, greater freedom, spreading democracy
Then came Wokeness, the Brexit vote (divisive even if you voted Leave), the rise of Xi, the new autocracy, Donald Trump, the horror of Covid, the Ukraine war.... relentless
1989 (collapse of the Soviet Union) to 2020 (Covid) feels more accurate.
Brexit and Trump and Crimea etc are all morbid symptoms of the past era’s decline.
Definitely feels like we are in something new now.
We are in the era that William Gibson predicted as "the jackpot" in 2014 - a combination of war, plague, energy insecurity and climate change that will act as a self-reinforcing, epoch-definining catastrophe.
I had genuinely never heard of Mastodon before this weekend. What was its draw?
Little - except that Twitter is dying and people are looking for a temporary home were Twitter to disappear in an unrepairable way.
Now the odds of that weren't high last week but after Musk fired whole parts of the System Response Engineers on Friday that risk has increased immeasurably.
Twitter isn't dying at all. It's a lot of people who don't agree with Musk's views saying "we'll migrate to our own platform!" just as the Trumpers threatened to head to Parler and Truth social but found the platforms utterly unappealing, semi-empty echo chambers.
Once again the intolerant left and intolerant right demonstrating why they're two cheeks of the same arse.
Did I say anything about twitter audience / membership.
Running a high available - complex website is time consuming work and while many systems will have contingencies and backup plans in place the odds of all disasters having known solutions is about zero.
And a lot of those plans will be sat in people's heads - because it's the combination of A, B and C that means you know what happens / to do if D happens. Problem is those people aren't at twitter anymore and may not be inclined to help.
Case in point - I took a new contract 3 weeks ago. Because I know someone who joined a while earlier who is tasked with writing new best practice documentation, I'm now writing certain parts of it because (as that person said) Eek knows more about the internals than probably anyone outside the SaaS core product team. And it's stuff you can't really write down - it's things like because of how A and B works while C looks like a great idea it's going to bite you if/when X or Y occurs so please don't do it that way.
Yep. Direct contrast with Sunak saying that government cannot solve all problems. At some point interests rates were going to go up. If you borrowed a lot of money without stress checking the repayment, then more fool you.
Anecdotally from listening to the radio the number of people who have borrowed to the hilt whilst interest rates have been at centuries-long lows is disturbing. Of course they all want government help now, despite the fact that they should have been through a whole bunch of affordability tests to ensure they could pay their mortgage when rates rise back towards levels that are still historically low.
I remember looking at mortgage payments in the early 2000s and figuring it if we could meet the payments if the rates doubled or even tripled, because those were levels that were entirely plausible for at least short periods of time. If lenders and borrowers aren't asking such questions today then the system is broken.
The Government wrote a tickbox exercise - all borrowers passed that exercise so it's not the problem of the bank.
Typical of so much in the last couple of decades, the outcome is almost irrelevant so long as the boxes are all ticked.
Also, the tickbox exercise provided my Yes answers than the previous approach.
Pretty sure you can add big rises in fares to the list of cost of living issues. It's hard to see fare rises of less than 10% in the New Year on services which, if my experience in and around London is any guide, are buckling as the failure to adapt to the post-pandemic travelling environment means pre-pandemic operational models just don't work.
This desperate desire to ignore reality and assume everything will revert to exactly how it was in January 2020 is extraordinarily short-sighted. Travel patterns have changed with less commuting and more leisure travel so maintaining a strong weekend service (if not expanding it) would seem to make more sense than continuing to run a pre-pandemic schedule of half-empty (or more) off-peak weekday services.
By the way, Survation with tactical unwind leaves the Conservatives and SNP almost level pegging to be the lead Opposition party in the new Commons.
I had genuinely never heard of Mastodon before this weekend. What was its draw?
Little - except that Twitter is dying and people are looking for a temporary home were Twitter to disappear in an unrepairable way.
Now the odds of that weren't high last week but after Musk fired whole parts of the System Response Engineers on Friday that risk has increased immeasurably.
Twitter isn't dying at all. It's a lot of people who don't agree with Musk's views saying "we'll migrate to our own platform!" just as the Trumpers threatened to head to Parler and Truth social but found the platforms utterly unappealing, semi-empty echo chambers.
Once again the intolerant left and intolerant right demonstrating why they're two cheeks of the same arse.
Did I say anything about twitter audience / membership.
Running a high available - complex website is time consuming work and while many systems will have contingencies and backup plans in place the odds of all disasters having known solutions is about zero.
And a lot of those plans will be sat in people's heads - because it's the combination of A, B and C that means you know what happens / to do if D happens. Problem is those people aren't at twitter anymore and may not be inclined to help.
Case in point - I took a new contract 3 weeks ago. Because I know someone who joined a while earlier who is tasked with writing new best practice documentation, I'm now writing certain parts of it because (as that person said) Eek knows more about the internals than probably anyone outside the SaaS core product team. And it's stuff you can't really write down - it's things like because of how A and B works while C looks like a great idea it's going to bite you if/when X or Y occurs so please don't do it that way.
Then how come they're not planning to migrate to Truth Social or Parler or Gab?
I put it to you that the people who are planning to migrate are doing so for political reasons, not because they think Twitter is about to be switched off.
I had genuinely never heard of Mastodon before this weekend. What was its draw?
Little - except that Twitter is dying and people are looking for a temporary home were Twitter to disappear in an unrepairable way.
Now the odds of that weren't high last week but after Musk fired whole parts of the System Response Engineers on Friday that risk has increased immeasurably.
Twitter isn't dying at all. It's a lot of people who don't agree with Musk's views saying "we'll migrate to our own platform!" just as the Trumpers threatened to head to Parler and Truth social but found the platforms utterly unappealing, semi-empty echo chambers.
Once again the intolerant left and intolerant right demonstrating why they're two cheeks of the same arse.
Did I say anything about twitter audience / membership.
Running a high available - complex website is time consuming work and while many systems will have contingencies and backup plans in place the odds of all disasters having known solutions is about zero.
And a lot of those plans will be sat in people's heads - because it's the combination of A, B and C that means you know what happens / to do if D happens. Problem is those people aren't at twitter anymore and may not be inclined to help.
Case in point - I took a new contract 3 weeks ago. Because I know someone who joined a while earlier who is tasked with writing new best practice documentation, I'm now writing certain parts of it because (as that person said) Eek knows more about the internals than probably anyone outside the SaaS core product team. And it's stuff you can't really write down - it's things like because of how A and B works while C looks like a great idea it's going to bite you if/when X or Y occurs so please don't do it that way.
Then how come they're not planning to migrate to Truth Social or Parler or Gab?
I put it to you that the people who are planning to migrate are doing so for political reasons, not because they think Twitter is about to be switched off.
they are just moving to their preferred site. For Netflix the plan seems to be to spend money and time keeping instagram up to date.
As someone pointed out elsewhere for the next few months people are going to be trying to find whatever site gives them the audience that twitter once gave them because that looks to be being destroyed by the changes Musk is proposing (and he's already scared some advertisers away)
I had genuinely never heard of Mastodon before this weekend. What was its draw?
Little - except that Twitter is dying and people are looking for a temporary home were Twitter to disappear in an unrepairable way.
Now the odds of that weren't high last week but after Musk fired whole parts of the System Response Engineers on Friday that risk has increased immeasurably.
Twitter isn't dying at all. It's a lot of people who don't agree with Musk's views saying "we'll migrate to our own platform!" just as the Trumpers threatened to head to Parler and Truth social but found the platforms utterly unappealing, semi-empty echo chambers.
Once again the intolerant left and intolerant right demonstrating why they're two cheeks of the same arse.
Did I say anything about twitter audience / membership.
Running a high available - complex website is time consuming work and while many systems will have contingencies and backup plans in place the odds of all disasters having known solutions is about zero.
And a lot of those plans will be sat in people's heads - because it's the combination of A, B and C that means you know what happens / to do if D happens. Problem is those people aren't at twitter anymore and may not be inclined to help.
Case in point - I took a new contract 3 weeks ago. Because I know someone who joined a while earlier who is tasked with writing new best practice documentation, I'm now writing certain parts of it because (as that person said) Eek knows more about the internals than probably anyone outside the SaaS core product team. And it's stuff you can't really write down - it's things like because of how A and B works while C looks like a great idea it's going to bite you if/when X or Y occurs so please don't do it that way.
Then how come they're not planning to migrate to Truth Social or Parler or Gab?
I put it to you that the people who are planning to migrate are doing so for political reasons, not because they think Twitter is about to be switched off.
If Twitter dies it will be because it stops being compelling viewing to its target audience, not because people of one political persuasion or other decide to boycott it. Mastodon, like Parler, sounds like a flash in the pan to me.
I go on Twitter largely because it’s where political news hits first and because it’s a treasure trove of links to fascinating content, posted daily by some very clever people.
In the UK they are going through the redundancy consultation process.
This makes it easier to keep employees in the UK, and other similar jurisdictions, compared with the US where they will need to rehire.
You can't fire at will in New York or California - so Twitter hasn't actually fired anyone until February they are just on paid leave until then
That doesn't mean that Twitter can recall people because many who are good will already have new opportunities.
For reference boo.com went bankrupt in 2000. By the time the CTO had got Dan Wagner to purchase the technology (6 hours later) over half the tech team had new jobs.
Without wishing to be too pretentious (though linking key historical moments to a Stone Roses album is about as pretentious as it gets), the problem with the events of 1989 was, unexpected as they were, they weren't well understood at the time and are probably less well understood now.
From the perspective of 30 years or more, it looks increasingly illusory - the West thought it had "won" the great historical and ideological struggle known as the Cold War. I tend to look at the Soviet retreat from Eastern Europe and implosion as more analogous to decolonisation and to be fair it cost far fewer lives than the British withdrawal from the Indian Sub-continent for example.
The illusion of a unipolar world was perpetuated by the Kuwait invasion and liberation (which ended up as unfinished business which would linger for another decade or more). In the 1990s, Somalia and later Yugoslavia showed the world wasn't as unipolar as we thought and the events of September 11th 2001 shattered all manner of illusions and delusions about American invincibility.
Some might argue we simply replaced one "threat", the Warsaw Pact, with another, Islamic fundamentalism, a different threat of a different nature for which armoured divisions near the Rhine, weren't much use. Some argued there was a threat from within in the Cold War - it was thrown repeatedly by the Conservatives at Labour that they were more pro-Russian than pro-British which was a slur on men like Healey and Callaghan who served with honour but Islamic fundamentalism came to have a much clearer "fifth column" and the apparatus of a surveillance-based security state was put in place.
Economically, however, we prospered, big defence cuts allowed big spending rises and combined with cheap resources gave us the era of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and endlessly rising asset values. I can assert from 1997-2008, I lived not only well but very well.
Then the Party was over in 2008 not because of a band but because an economic cycle ended and if you want to put up the three defining images of the last 30 years, it's the crowds on top of the Berlin Wall on November 9th 1989, the second plane hitting the Twin Towers on September 11th 2001 and the workers leaving Lehman Brothers with their possessions in cardboard boxes on September 15th 2008.
Everything, I'd argue, that has happened since and the current issues of migration, defence and the economy can all be traced back to those three seminal events and the consequences arising.
Now, that's pretentious historical analysis for you - if the Mail want to sign me up, they can reach me via OGH.
Why doesn't the clock stop when refs are setting scrums? Drives me mad. Entre chunks of an 80 minute game are spent looking at packs doing nothing in the mud
I think you will find that vast stretches of time passing as pointless trench warfare is organised by gorillas, while a sharp speaking autocrat with a whistle looks on, making up the rules as he goes along, is a feature not a bug of Rugby Union.
Without wishing to be too pretentious (though linking key historical moments to a Stone Roses album is about as pretentious as it gets), the problem with the events of 1989 was, unexpected as they were, they weren't well understood at the time and are probably less well understood now.
From the perspective of 30 years or more, it looks increasingly illusory - the West thought it had "won" the great historical and ideological struggle known as the Cold War. I tend to look at the Soviet retreat from Eastern Europe and implosion as more analogous to decolonisation and to be fair it cost far fewer lives than the British withdrawal from the Indian Sub-continent for example.
The illusion of a unipolar world was perpetuated by the Kuwait invasion and liberation (which ended up as unfinished business which would linger for another decade or more). In the 1990s, Somalia and later Yugoslavia showed the world wasn't as unipolar as we thought and the events of September 11th 2001 shattered all manner of illusions and delusions about American invincibility.
Some might argue we simply replaced one "threat", the Warsaw Pact, with another, Islamic fundamentalism, a different threat of a different nature for which armoured divisions near the Rhine, weren't much use. Some argued there was a threat from within in the Cold War - it was thrown repeatedly by the Conservatives at Labour that they were more pro-Russian than pro-British which was a slur on men like Healey and Callaghan who served with honour but Islamic fundamentalism came to have a much clearer "fifth column" and the apparatus of a surveillance-based security state was put in place.
Economically, however, we prospered, big defence cuts allowed big spending rises and combined with cheap resources gave us the era of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and endlessly rising asset values. I can assert from 1997-2008, I lived not only well but very well.
Then the Party was over in 2008 not because of a band but because an economic cycle ended and if you want to put up the three defining images of the last 30 years, it's the crowds on top of the Berlin Wall on November 9th 1989, the second plane hitting the Twin Towers on September 11th 2001 and the workers leaving Lehman Brothers with their possessions in cardboard boxes on September 15th 2008.
Everything, I'd argue, that has happened since and the current issues of migration, defence and the economy can all be traced back to those three seminal events and the consequences arising.
Now, that's pretentious historical analysis for you - if the Mail want to sign me up, they can reach me via OGH.
Not sure 9/11 really makes the cut. Like saving private Ryan and pearl harbor the cinematic centrepiece is so mind-blowing it obscures a pretty ordinary narrative.
if England lose this, Jones should go (he won't). They have made zero progress
Imagine the score if the Argentina coach hadn't been coaching the Lebanese RL side until yesterday.
Brilliant solo try from Van Poortvliet tho
This is the frustrating thing about England. Jones has such a wealth of talent at his disposal. As much as any coach on the planet
Eddie is a busted flush of a coach. I could write a book about his attacking system failures.
Marcus Smith is a lovely club stand off but he is a million miles away from being a international ten and I'm amazed Eddie bowed to media pressure and put him in the side. Almost every touch he had today added negative value to the England attack.
Asked whether Sunak had confidence in Williamson, Dowden replied: “Well, he shouldn’t have sent those messages and he says that he regrets it but of course the prime minister continues to have confidence in Gavin Williamson as minister.”
This government seems to have become shambolic even more quickly than Truss's did.
Yes, what happens now? Unacceptable presumably means what it says. Remote sacking from Sharm el Sheikh where rs presumably is now?
Don't assume words mean what they appear to mean. The government has literally argued Braverman 'took responsibility' for an error by resigning and being reappointed 6 days later. She'd have shown more responsibility taking a week's holiday.
Nightmarishly bad performance by England. Jones has to go
Bad from England, and I agree about Jones, but also respect to Argentina. Superb first phase try, slightly lucky second one (pretty sure it was a knock on but the two angles didn’t show it, a bit like that phone cable photo). Don’t forget the Pumas also beat NZ this year.
But since the WC final we’ve gone backwards a long long way.
I had genuinely never heard of Mastodon before this weekend. What was its draw?
Little - except that Twitter is dying and people are looking for a temporary home were Twitter to disappear in an unrepairable way.
Now the odds of that weren't high last week but after Musk fired whole parts of the System Response Engineers on Friday that risk has increased immeasurably.
Twitter isn't dying at all. It's a lot of people who don't agree with Musk's views saying "we'll migrate to our own platform!" just as the Trumpers threatened to head to Parler and Truth social but found the platforms utterly unappealing, semi-empty echo chambers.
Once again the intolerant left and intolerant right demonstrating why they're two cheeks of the same arse.
Did I say anything about twitter audience / membership.
Running a high available - complex website is time consuming work and while many systems will have contingencies and backup plans in place the odds of all disasters having known solutions is about zero.
And a lot of those plans will be sat in people's heads - because it's the combination of A, B and C that means you know what happens / to do if D happens. Problem is those people aren't at twitter anymore and may not be inclined to help.
Case in point - I took a new contract 3 weeks ago. Because I know someone who joined a while earlier who is tasked with writing new best practice documentation, I'm now writing certain parts of it because (as that person said) Eek knows more about the internals than probably anyone outside the SaaS core product team. And it's stuff you can't really write down - it's things like because of how A and B works while C looks like a great idea it's going to bite you if/when X or Y occurs so please don't do it that way.
Then how come they're not planning to migrate to Truth Social or Parler or Gab?
I put it to you that the people who are planning to migrate are doing so for political reasons, not because they think Twitter is about to be switched off.
If Twitter dies it will be because it stops being compelling viewing to its target audience, not because people of one political persuasion or other decide to boycott it. Mastodon, like Parler, sounds like a flash in the pan to me.
I go on Twitter largely because it’s where political news hits first and because it’s a treasure trove of links to fascinating content, posted daily by some very clever people.
GETTR as well also seems to be a flash in the pan.
This government seems to have become shambolic even more quickly than Truss's did.
Yes, what happens now? Unacceptable presumably means what it says. Remote sacking from Sharm el Sheikh where rs presumably is now?
Don't assume words mean what they appear to mean. The government has literally argued Braverman 'took responsibility' for an error by resigning and being reappointed 6 days later. She'd have shown more responsibility taking a week's holiday.
Probably the best thing would be for Williamson to issue a statement saying he agrees that his text messages were unacceptable, and then everyone will be happy.
The slight shift down to an increase in Dem turnout .
Within the margin of error and the fundamentals still mean its a struggle for the Dems but given some of the other recent polling on the generic ballot the Dems will gladly take this poll.
Not sure 9/11 really makes the cut. Like saving private Ryan and pearl harbor the cinematic centrepiece is so mind-blowing it obscures a pretty ordinary narrative.
I think there's an analogy with Pearl Harbor - Americans liked to think they were somehow invulnerable but 9/11 dispelled that with a vengeance. For London, 7/7 was awful but we'd lived with terror for nearly 40 years though not suicide bombers which was the new dimension.
It impacted American policy directly not only through the eventual Iraq invasion in 2003 and the cover the Bin Laden attacks but also the money successive Republican legislatures poured into defence (and the profits made by defence contractors) came home to roost when the Democrats won the House in 2006 and the extent of the economic exposure became clear.
I genuinely think there was a brief period of euphoria (remember Fukayama) in the early 90s where it was believed we now lived in a unipolar world where the triumph of western liberal democracy was inevitable. The reality of the conflicts which had in some ways been masked by Soviet imperialism was then uncovered as Moscow withdrew from Europe and Africa.
if England lose this, Jones should go (he won't). They have made zero progress
Imagine the score if the Argentina coach hadn't been coaching the Lebanese RL side until yesterday.
Brilliant solo try from Van Poortvliet tho
This is the frustrating thing about England. Jones has such a wealth of talent at his disposal. As much as any coach on the planet
Eddie is a busted flush of a coach. I could write a book about his attacking system failures.
Marcus Smith is a lovely club stand off but he is a million miles away from being a international ten and I'm amazed Eddie bowed to media pressure and put him in the side. Almost every touch he had today added negative value to the England attack.
For whatever reason we are averse to popping the ball out of tackles and seem to want to play staccato ruck rugby. Kills any speed in the attack. I get that popping is riskier, but that’s what leads to breaks of the line in modern rugby. We can no longer just out Orc teams. They are all professional, all have huge packs. So we need to learn to run the ball, and not just one out rugby all the time.
Comments
1990 to 2020. Helluva ride.
You can argue they should have given more of a fuck.
But, collectively, these governments did more than a number of European peers, for example.
From the first Stone Roses album to the referendum on Scottish independence
1989 to 2014. A quarter of a century of rising prosperity, globalisation, greater freedom, spreading democracy
Then came Wokeness, the Brexit vote (divisive even if you voted Leave), the rise of Xi, the new autocracy, Donald Trump, the horror of Covid, the Ukraine war.... relentless
All in all I recommend it.
A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View
By David Wallace-Wells
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/climate-change-warming-world.html?unlocked_article_code=yOE39wLoQimT-fXzlwZ9lc3d7dXwP2fQumdVEjhSQBbLolyu5461INeOGBA_cYRNpnWhev09LzoZ5q5_Z-EKw1JOdf2NEHhp9t3b2NhS4aiLRe2gxucRNUgdsonkQj_ANvfszitCdNm5e4wFLIYhD7GeKeZQPT179nMoJpBfvTD-C86-FU73uDScO9_nfJjdxrXyYS1wddtZ904t9dIrm277RTbYLqtpiIxZHsVFJlmu7Ry03IF6hc0tMQMCcj60on1W55qDWrI9ob5ZLUnqv2jGE9KwwuqD3rKLLlgLKuTrL-PpYGyCJOvwP7PRKZ7kyjWF1hBZoK7jPazlasAZWLsC-Aoc5T-5oW2yVpny0V-3rXkB-Q&smid=share-url
Sorry about the bonkers url but it hopefully gets past the paywall. Really interesting long read suggesting we are winning a bit more than looked likely 10 years ago.
Why don't they toss a coin for the penalty to save time?
Attendance at COO27 is largely about encouraging others to take the same stances.
It’s dumb politics so far because the 45 days of Truss did not cause the changed economic circumstances of higher interest rates and borrowing costs, these things are international and have been on the way for a long time. Hunt and Sunak cannot even be straight with the voters what has caused the £50bn deficit, truth is it’s the price of THEIR OWN policies, policies they are running with such as the most expensive form of household energy bill help, with separate assistance to businesses and industry, borrowing costs for such long period of furlough, and eat out to help out money pits that were bought on the credit card and maxxed our credit limit. That’s the £50+ deficit right there.
Conclusion. Hunt and Sunak, PB Tories and Tories everywhere continually blaming previous Tory leaders for a mess to sort out, is neither economically true AND means the Tory Party gets more blame than necessary from British voters for what is an international situation.
You wanna know the daft mistake they are making that’s puts them low in the polls still? i just explained it. If Tories blame Tories for economic illiteracy, the voters will think the Tory party option on ballot paper is the economic illiterate one - the kicker being the pain voters will feel was actually from an international situation whilst the Tory party has been ensuring they get the blame instead.
It will be interesting to hear Sunak and Hunt explain and defend the path of QT and austerity during the recession years they chose, other than simply try to blame it on Truss and Kwarteng messing up. You see the point I’m making? The central plank of communication from Sunak and Hunt in recent weeks has been diabolical.
I remember looking at mortgage payments in the early 2000s and figuring it if we could meet the payments if the rates doubled or even tripled, because those were levels that were entirely plausible for at least short periods of time. If lenders and borrowers aren't asking such questions today then the system is broken.
Tories love migration. How can you stir people up by being rabidly anti-migration, without migration?
David Allen Green, the deeply irritating Remoaner lawyer, has "migrated" to Mastodon
Nervously says he will keep Twitter for the odd "broadcast" comment
1/20 he migrates entirely back to Twitter?
Sky Stream with a good TV from a decent brand is a better deal and probably not much different in price.
I looked it up because the Pub Quiz I go to often has a round about the previous month on the first Monday of the month.
Their last poll had a ludicrous 3 pt gap which was hilarious.
Brexit and Trump and Crimea etc are all morbid symptoms of the past era’s decline.
Definitely feels like we are in something new now.
Now the odds of that weren't high last week but after Musk fired whole parts of the System Response Engineers on Friday that risk has increased immeasurably.
They are shitting bricks. This is because they have found out that depending on demented fuckwits for your energy supply is a poor plan.
To be fair, there was only the history of energy production since about 1895 to inform them of the potential downsides….
I'm actually on Signal talking a friend through how to set up a mastodon account and it feels like I'm giving instructions for defusing a bomb. Except I don't know how to defuse bombs.
https://twitter.com/mattblaze/status/1589114137271042048?cxt=HHwWgIC8ue241Y0sAAAA
The problem with Mastadon is the lack of moderation. Unless you wall yourself off, in a moderated server.
The history of such concepts suggests that it will either rapidly implode under the weight of scum posting vile shit, or fragment into a large number of walled gardens, not communicating. Or both.
"Canadian atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe, a lead chapter author on several National Climate Assessments and an evangelical Christian who has gained a reputation as a sort of climate whisperer to the center-right. The bad news, she says, is that we have been “systematically underestimating the rate and magnitude of extremes.” Even if temperature rise is limited to two degrees, she says, “the extremes might be what you would have projected for four to five.”
Once again the intolerant left and intolerant right demonstrating why they're two cheeks of the same arse.
That might be what the polling is saying. Sunak ought to be better at generating more wealth for the nation, but Starmer will do more to divert it towards me.
(It's a bit moot, because we're about to have a painful contraction, and the only question is who should hurt when. But most of the voting public haven't really cottoned on to that yet. Are there any historical examples of a government being rewarded for managing a recession well?)
Running a high available - complex website is time consuming work and while many systems will have contingencies and backup plans in place the odds of all disasters having known solutions is about zero.
And a lot of those plans will be sat in people's heads - because it's the combination of A, B and C that means you know what happens / to do if D happens. Problem is those people aren't at twitter anymore and may not be inclined to help.
Case in point - I took a new contract 3 weeks ago. Because I know someone who joined a while earlier who is tasked with writing new best practice documentation, I'm now writing certain parts of it because (as that person said) Eek knows more about the internals than probably anyone outside the SaaS core product team. And it's stuff you can't really write down - it's things like because of how A and B works while C looks like a great idea it's going to bite you if/when X or Y occurs so please don't do it that way.
This is the frustrating thing about England. Jones has such a wealth of talent at his disposal. As much as any coach on the planet
Pretty sure you can add big rises in fares to the list of cost of living issues. It's hard to see fare rises of less than 10% in the New Year on services which, if my experience in and around London is any guide, are buckling as the failure to adapt to the post-pandemic travelling environment means pre-pandemic operational models just don't work.
This desperate desire to ignore reality and assume everything will revert to exactly how it was in January 2020 is extraordinarily short-sighted. Travel patterns have changed with less commuting and more leisure travel so maintaining a strong weekend service (if not expanding it) would seem to make more sense than continuing to run a pre-pandemic schedule of half-empty (or more) off-peak weekday services.
By the way, Survation with tactical unwind leaves the Conservatives and SNP almost level pegging to be the lead Opposition party in the new Commons.
In the UK they are going through the redundancy consultation process.
This makes it easier to keep employees in the UK, and other similar jurisdictions, compared with the US where they will need to rehire.
The best public speaker in the US by a distance.
I put it to you that the people who are planning to migrate are doing so for political reasons, not because they think Twitter is about to be switched off.
As someone pointed out elsewhere for the next few months people are going to be trying to find whatever site gives them the audience that twitter once gave them because that looks to be being destroyed by the changes Musk is proposing (and he's already scared some advertisers away)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63530070
I go on Twitter largely because it’s where political news hits first and because it’s a treasure trove of links to fascinating content, posted daily by some very clever people.
That doesn't mean that Twitter can recall people because many who are good will already have new opportunities.
For reference boo.com went bankrupt in 2000. By the time the CTO had got Dan Wagner to purchase the technology (6 hours later) over half the tech team had new jobs.
From the perspective of 30 years or more, it looks increasingly illusory - the West thought it had "won" the great historical and ideological struggle known as the Cold War. I tend to look at the Soviet retreat from Eastern Europe and implosion as more analogous to decolonisation and to be fair it cost far fewer lives than the British withdrawal from the Indian Sub-continent for example.
The illusion of a unipolar world was perpetuated by the Kuwait invasion and liberation (which ended up as unfinished business which would linger for another decade or more). In the 1990s, Somalia and later Yugoslavia showed the world wasn't as unipolar as we thought and the events of September 11th 2001 shattered all manner of illusions and delusions about American invincibility.
Some might argue we simply replaced one "threat", the Warsaw Pact, with another, Islamic fundamentalism, a different threat of a different nature for which armoured divisions near the Rhine, weren't much use. Some argued there was a threat from within in the Cold War - it was thrown repeatedly by the Conservatives at Labour that they were more pro-Russian than pro-British which was a slur on men like Healey and Callaghan who served with honour but Islamic fundamentalism came to have a much clearer "fifth column" and the apparatus of a surveillance-based security state was put in place.
Economically, however, we prospered, big defence cuts allowed big spending rises and combined with cheap resources gave us the era of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and endlessly rising asset values. I can assert from 1997-2008, I lived not only well but very well.
Then the Party was over in 2008 not because of a band but because an economic cycle ended and if you want to put up the three defining images of the last 30 years, it's the crowds on top of the Berlin Wall on November 9th 1989, the second plane hitting the Twin Towers on September 11th 2001 and the workers leaving Lehman Brothers with their possessions in cardboard boxes on September 15th 2008.
Everything, I'd argue, that has happened since and the current issues of migration, defence and the economy can all be traced back to those three seminal events and the consequences arising.
Now, that's pretentious historical analysis for you - if the Mail want to sign me up, they can reach me via OGH.
3:49PM
Prediction: England will lose this
Marcus Smith is a lovely club stand off but he is a million miles away from being a international ten and I'm amazed Eddie bowed to media pressure and put him in the side. Almost every touch he had today added negative value to the England attack.
They have really benefited from regular competition against the best in the Southern Hemisphere.
Not full.
But since the WC final we’ve gone backwards a long long way.
Dems 48 (+1)
Rep 47 (-1)
The slight shift down to an increase in Dem turnout .
Within the margin of error and the fundamentals still mean its a struggle for the Dems but given some of the other recent polling on the generic ballot the Dems will gladly take this poll.
It impacted American policy directly not only through the eventual Iraq invasion in 2003 and the cover the Bin Laden attacks but also the money successive Republican legislatures poured into defence (and the profits made by defence contractors) came home to roost when the Democrats won the House in 2006 and the extent of the economic exposure became clear.
I genuinely think there was a brief period of euphoria (remember Fukayama) in the early 90s where it was believed we now lived in a unipolar world where the triumph of western liberal democracy was inevitable. The reality of the conflicts which had in some ways been masked by Soviet imperialism was then uncovered as Moscow withdrew from Europe and Africa.
He loves it, it is an addiction.