Another Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of grain ships left Odesa this morning, breaking through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine for a second day in a row.
Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
probably not. He believes what he sees with his own eyes, rather than a bunch of self serving tories pulling the wool over Speaker Hoyle's eyes, (which let's face it, is very easy to do).
What's surprising is not that Conservative MPs might be economical with the actualite, but rather that they can stop infighting sufficiently long to concoct an account that might persuade the Speaker.
On Russian casualties I read a report on Twitter recently that a large group of conscripts were gathered together in the open to prepare to go to the front line. Ukrainian artillery found them.
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
probably not. He believes what he sees with his own eyes, rather than a bunch of self serving tories pulling the wool over Speaker Hoyle's eyes, (which let's face it, is very easy to do).
What's surprising is not that Conservative MPs might be economical with the actualite, but rather that they can stop infighting sufficiently long to concoct an account that might persuade the Speaker.
If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily
1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War
This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?
Battle of the Bulge was a month long and Us took about 20k dead + fuckloads more casualties. Imagine Germany would have to have been something similar. Operation Market Garden was 10 days and thousands dead.
WW2 Casualty and death figures are huge. We are talking millions of dead per side for the Germans and Russians. The average monthly death toll on the Eastern Front was way, way higher than 45k a month.
As per the figures I gave above. Casualty figures are generally more reliable than deaths, for relatively obvious reasons, not least of definition. Deaths in field are usually around a third of total casualties.
Yes; Sunak is marginally better at politics than Boris was.
Only marginally, mind.
I think people may be underestimating Sunak….admittedly his immediate predecessors represent a very low base, but I think he’s cannier than people give him credit for.
I think that's correct, but one or two of his cabinet appointments have been *very* disappointing and IMO were unforced errors.
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
probably not. He believes what he sees with his own eyes, rather than a bunch of self serving tories pulling the wool over Speaker Hoyle's eyes, (which let's face it, is very easy to do).
What's surprising is not that Conservative MPs might be economical with the actualite, but rather that they can stop infighting sufficiently long to concoct an account that might persuade the Speaker.
Bryant on WATO pointed out that the investigation was carried out by the Sergeant at Arms and he did not resile from his claims.
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
He reported what he saw, and the MPs involved (specifically, those on the receiving end) have chosen to say that they weren’t mistreated. That doesn’t mean that his allegations were demolished.
Think it's lower than that right now. Rishi has a huge mountain to climb and the migrant crisis needs a resolution before the end of the year so that no more boats arrive from France in 2023 and the majority of the ones who have arrived are deported back to Albania. I don't think this government is up to the job and that means they will lose in 2024.
To be fair I am not sure any government is.
If someone gets into a boat in another country and comes across there is practically speaking very little you can do if the French won’t cooperate
Yes; Sunak is marginally better at politics than Boris was.
Only marginally, mind.
I think people may be underestimating Sunak….admittedly his immediate predecessors represent a very low base, but I think he’s cannier than people give him credit for.
Once he’s got Braverman out of the HS job, and got away with it with the nutjobs behind him, then we can say that he is canny. Meanwhile her appointment looks like his first big mistake.
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
Parties are upping the ante on their Hancock hot takes.
Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael says Hancock would "rather spend his time gargling pig semen in the jungle than spend another minute on the backbenches"
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
Did your mummy never tell you it was rude to butt into other people's conversations Adolf. GIRFUY
Think it's lower than that right now. Rishi has a huge mountain to climb and the migrant crisis needs a resolution before the end of the year so that no more boats arrive from France in 2023 and the majority of the ones who have arrived are deported back to Albania. I don't think this government is up to the job and that means they will lose in 2024.
To be fair I am not sure any government is.
If someone gets into a boat in another country and comes across there is practically speaking very little you can do if the French won’t cooperate
If the boats are predominantly full of Albanians, as some reports, including from the Government, suggest, then that's a group with a very low success rate for asylum applications, so we catch them, process them and deport (most of) them. This isn't rocket science.
Parties are upping the ante on their Hancock hot takes.
Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael says Hancock would "rather spend his time gargling pig semen in the jungle than spend another minute on the backbenches"
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
He reported what he saw, and the MPs involved (specifically, those on the receiving end) have chosen to say that they weren’t mistreated. That doesn’t mean that his allegations were demolished.
A whole stack of contemporaneous reports from multiple sources and at least one photo of what appears to be a contretemps.
That after a period of time MPs have formally said "no sir, the bully didn't hit me, I fell over in the playground" is hardly a surprise.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
I should have guessed you would be a Putin sockpuppet Foreskin, though I underestimated what an evil nasty piece of merde you really are.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Dulce et decorum est...
Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will. https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233
Fascism always turns into a death cult in the end. True believers will prefer death to accepting the insult to their self image that losing on the battlefield implies.
Yes; Sunak is marginally better at politics than Boris was.
Only marginally, mind.
I think people may be underestimating Sunak….admittedly his immediate predecessors represent a very low base, but I think he’s cannier than people give him credit for.
I think that's correct, but one or two of his cabinet appointments have been *very* disappointing and IMO were unforced errors.
That's probably correct, but it sounds awfully like:
This is no criticism of the individual posters there, but it does feel like novelty and polling wobbles lead to underestimation of the pit into which the Tories have fallen, whoever is leader. And Sunak has not been unerringly sure-of-foot this last week or two.
Another Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of grain ships left Odesa this morning, breaking through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine for a second day in a row.
Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.
If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily
1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War
This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?
Back in early March I noted that Russia was losing more people per week than the worst year of the Soviet-Afghan War. IIRC Russia passed the total of that war about 7 or 8 weeks in. It is now heading towards three times the total. Militarily this war has been a complete catastrophe for Russia.
The Black Sea Fleet has largely been confined to dock. The loss of one and perhaps two flagships has meant it has had no capacity to support an amphibious landing on Odessa which seems to have been abandoned, thanks to the anti-ship missiles Ukraine had (as now topped up). Ukraine will keep a Black Sea presence - very much not what was intended.
The Russian air force had no cover along the northern Black Sea coast because of the absence of the fleet. That has caused control of the skies to be largely missing in the southern and eastern areas. The supply of ubiquitous manpads has taken out a significant number of fixed wing aircraft when they do appear. Even worse, the helicopters, especially the K-52 Alligator, have played limited roles in supporting/moving ground troops - and when they have, at a high cost. Their battlefield performances have been terrible adverts for those who might have been considering purchasing them.
The real catastrophe though has been the Army. NATO must have looked on in bewilderment that this was the Army they had been fearing in Europe for decades. Their blitzkrieg on Kyiv was a fiasco of unclear aims, woeful intelligence and strategy based on them just rolling up to an enemy that would melt away like mist. Many of the troops didn't even know they were going for something more than an exercise. Other elite units raced ahead for battle honours - only to then be destroyed as functioning regiments.
When they regrouped and got their shit together for artillery barrage --> destroy everything in front of them - -> advance and repeat, it worked in Donbas. For a while. But once they lost the advantage of range against HIMARS (a piece of quite aged kit, especially when deprived by the US of its longer range shells) their only successful method of waging war fell apart. Their main battle tanks were no match for cheap and prolific anti-tank weapons in theatre. The rest of their kit fared worse, with things such as tyres and fuel proving a logistics bridge too far. Massive ammunition dumps moved by trains were the way Russia had always done it - but not next time, you have to think, as one after another they got picked off from 50 miles away with pinpoint precision.
Russia might still try a new surprise offensive out of Belarus. But between Belarus and Ukraine is the largest marshland in Europe. The few routes through are heavily mined/obstructed and have artillery pinpointing the limited attack points. Unless Russia can find a very different way of fighting a war against Ukraine, it is hard to see how that ends in anything other than another rout - followed by the likely overthrow of Lukashenko by the true winner of the presidential election. That means another candidate for NATO membership snug against the Russian border, adding to the strategic disaster of Sweden and Finland joining, bringing nukes within 50 miles of St. Petersburg. Forget ICBMs - you could now almost drive a nuke there in a Transit van.
You're forgetting the other problem the Russians have: they're chewing through both their artillery pieces and their supply of shells.
In the former case, it is not just that the Ukrainians are hitting them with their own counter-batteries, it is also the fact that barrels are made with lower quality metal and are deforming and become useless.
In the latter, Russia is now in the position of having to beg for shells from its few remaining allies.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
Did your mummy never tell you it was rude to butt into other people's conversations Adolf. GIRFUY
Malcolm obviously you're the intentionally funniest poster on PB that goes without saying. Using "Adolf" as a term of anything, however, to another poster I don't think burnishes your funny guy credentials.
If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily
1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War
This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?
Those numbers are made up.
Ukrainians are better trained, armed and - apparently - in defensive positions. Their casualties will be much lower
Think it's lower than that right now. Rishi has a huge mountain to climb and the migrant crisis needs a resolution before the end of the year so that no more boats arrive from France in 2023 and the majority of the ones who have arrived are deported back to Albania. I don't think this government is up to the job and that means they will lose in 2024.
To be fair I am not sure any government is.
If someone gets into a boat in another country and comes across there is practically speaking very little you can do if the French won’t cooperate
Hold on I thought we were finally back in control after Brexit. Now you say it was the big boy France that did it?
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Dulce et decorum est...
Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will. https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
These people are just being sent to their deaths in the hope they’ll gum up the Ukranain military machine a little. It’s obscene, but that’s Russian military doctrine for you: the accompanying war crimes are part of the package deal.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
I should have guessed you would be a Putin sockpuppet Foreskin, though I underestimated what an evil nasty piece of merde you really are.
Your childish attempts to annoy me by projecting your own Salmond nationalism/fascism on me, a centrist, are pathetic. Salmond took money from RT. You are an apologist for Salmond and therefore Putin.
You are just so fucking thick, but then you believe in nationalism, the thickos philosophy that is one step away (or zero steps in your case) from fascism.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Dulce et decorum est...
Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will. https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Dulce et decorum est...
Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will. https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
He reported what he saw, and the MPs involved (specifically, those on the receiving end) have chosen to say that they weren’t mistreated. That doesn’t mean that his allegations were demolished.
Well quite - you simply could not get a more impartial observer of politics in action than a Labour MP commenting while losing a parliamentary vote so heavily to the government.
In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.
I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.
So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.
My current hunch.
50% Sunak 45% Starmer 5% Another Tory
If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.
One of the things I feel make Starmer more likely as PM versus Sunak is in the event of a hung parliament, Starmer is the only viable PM. So Sunak needs to hold onto his majority, not just keep Cons as the largest party. I say this because it seems clear that a) Tories losing their majority would be seen as a clear statement the public has lost trust in them (similar to Gordon Brown losing the majority in 2010) and b) no other party would be willing to prop up this Conservative government (I would include the DUP in that after their brush with May and Johnson). So whilst it may not be a 70+% chance Lab makes a majority, I think it is clearly a 70+% chance that the Tories lose theirs, and what happens after will be a Starmer premiership.
On the other hand, Sunak is the man in possession. Him simply losing his majority doesn't automatically make Sir Keir PM, he then has to assemble an alternative majority. Although the landing zone for a hung parliament where Sir Keir can't assemble a majority is much smaller than usual, it's not nonexistent. A hopelessly hung parliament where there's no majority for anyone leading to a quick second general election returns Sunak as the winner in the market highlighted in the header.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Dulce et decorum est...
Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will. https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233
In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.
I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.
So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.
My current hunch.
50% Sunak 45% Starmer 5% Another Tory
If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.
One of the things I feel make Starmer more likely as PM versus Sunak is in the event of a hung parliament, Starmer is the only viable PM. So Sunak needs to hold onto his majority, not just keep Cons as the largest party. I say this because it seems clear that a) Tories losing their majority would be seen as a clear statement the public has lost trust in them (similar to Gordon Brown losing the majority in 2010) and b) no other party would be willing to prop up this Conservative government (I would include the DUP in that after their brush with May and Johnson). So whilst it may not be a 70+% chance Lab makes a majority, I think it is clearly a 70+% chance that the Tories lose theirs, and what happens after will be a Starmer premiership.
On the other hand, Sunak is the man in possession. Him simply losing his majority doesn't automatically make Sir Keir PM, he then has to assemble an alternative majority. Although the landing zone for a hung parliament where Sir Keir can't assemble a majority is much smaller than usual, it's not nonexistent. A hopelessly hung parliament where there's no majority for anyone leading to a quick second general election returns Sunak as the winner in the market highlighted in the header.
A quick second election will probably help the change candidate, i.e. Starmer.
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
He reported what he saw, and the MPs involved (specifically, those on the receiving end) have chosen to say that they weren’t mistreated. That doesn’t mean that his allegations were demolished.
Well quite - you simply could not get a more impartial observer of politics in action than a Labour MP commenting while losing a parliamentary vote so heavily to the government.
Or a more reliable witness than a victim coming under huge pressure not to let the side down by pursuing a complaint.
Yes; Sunak is marginally better at politics than Boris was.
Only marginally, mind.
I think people may be underestimating Sunak….admittedly his immediate predecessors represent a very low base, but I think he’s cannier than people give him credit for.
Sunak is undoubtedly a very clever, focused and ambitious chap. He would go far in a world-class consultancy business or investment bank. But the question of his political skills is completely different. I haven't seen much evidence that he has the kind of incredible political abilities he would need to turn things around for the Tories. If anything, he appears to lack decent political instincts and his lack of experience is showing. He is the best the Tories have now, but I can't see him winning the next election.
In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.
I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.
So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.
My current hunch.
50% Sunak 45% Starmer 5% Another Tory
If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.
One of the things I feel make Starmer more likely as PM versus Sunak is in the event of a hung parliament, Starmer is the only viable PM. So Sunak needs to hold onto his majority, not just keep Cons as the largest party. I say this because it seems clear that a) Tories losing their majority would be seen as a clear statement the public has lost trust in them (similar to Gordon Brown losing the majority in 2010) and b) no other party would be willing to prop up this Conservative government (I would include the DUP in that after their brush with May and Johnson). So whilst it may not be a 70+% chance Lab makes a majority, I think it is clearly a 70+% chance that the Tories lose theirs, and what happens after will be a Starmer premiership.
On the other hand, Sunak is the man in possession. Him simply losing his majority doesn't automatically make Sir Keir PM, he then has to assemble an alternative majority. Although the landing zone for a hung parliament where Sir Keir can't assemble a majority is much smaller than usual, it's not nonexistent. A hopelessly hung parliament where there's no majority for anyone leading to a quick second general election returns Sunak as the winner in the market highlighted in the header.
A quick second election will probably help the change candidate, i.e. Starmer.
Oh, indeed. But it doesn't help anyone who bets on Sir Keir in the market highlighted in the header, is my only point.
Think it's lower than that right now. Rishi has a huge mountain to climb and the migrant crisis needs a resolution before the end of the year so that no more boats arrive from France in 2023 and the majority of the ones who have arrived are deported back to Albania. I don't think this government is up to the job and that means they will lose in 2024.
To be fair I am not sure any government is.
If someone gets into a boat in another country and comes across there is practically speaking very little you can do if the French won’t cooperate
Hold on I thought we were finally back in control after Brexit. Now you say it was the big boy France that did it?
You'll be delighted to hear that I don't blame the French at all. It's absurd to suggest that they would do anything different than wave these people on - do we expect the French to hold them against their will, force them to stay in France and claim asylum there, accommodate them in French hotels etc.? Why? We could pay them eye-watering amounts to do so, but it would be more expensive than having them here, and mean that all the money to house and feed them was being spent in the French economy not ours.
The French are not part of the problem, and they will not be part of the solution. Once people are in France, it's too late.
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
He reported what he saw, and the MPs involved (specifically, those on the receiving end) have chosen to say that they weren’t mistreated. That doesn’t mean that his allegations were demolished.
Well quite - you simply could not get a more impartial observer of politics in action than a Labour MP commenting while losing a parliamentary vote so heavily to the government.
Or a more reliable witness than a victim coming under huge pressure not to let the side down by pursuing a complaint.
Happy to accept the conclusions of the Sarjeant at arms aren't you?
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
Yup I think you are right, no major movement in territory until the ground freezes I guess.
On numbers, even adjusting for the UK’s smaller population this would be like us losing 200 men a day. Every day, for month after grinding month. With one assumes 2-3 times that wounded. Their population just seems to take it on the chin.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
The training videos from *pro Russian* sources are startling. No kit, they’ve managed to find AKs so rusty they don’t work. The actual training is stupid - shooting past people’s ears just makes them deaf.
In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.
I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.
So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.
My current hunch.
50% Sunak 45% Starmer 5% Another Tory
If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.
One of the things I feel make Starmer more likely as PM versus Sunak is in the event of a hung parliament, Starmer is the only viable PM. So Sunak needs to hold onto his majority, not just keep Cons as the largest party. I say this because it seems clear that a) Tories losing their majority would be seen as a clear statement the public has lost trust in them (similar to Gordon Brown losing the majority in 2010) and b) no other party would be willing to prop up this Conservative government (I would include the DUP in that after their brush with May and Johnson). So whilst it may not be a 70+% chance Lab makes a majority, I think it is clearly a 70+% chance that the Tories lose theirs, and what happens after will be a Starmer premiership.
On the other hand, Sunak is the man in possession. Him simply losing his majority doesn't automatically make Sir Keir PM, he then has to assemble an alternative majority. Although the landing zone for a hung parliament where Sir Keir can't assemble a majority is much smaller than usual, it's not nonexistent. A hopelessly hung parliament where there's no majority for anyone leading to a quick second general election returns Sunak as the winner in the market highlighted in the header.
Rules say "If no new PM is appointed before a further general election, this market will be void."
Also say "The incumbent PM will be settled as the winner if they successfully form a new government (which may not require the specific invitation above)."
Slightly unclear about what is meant by "successfully form a new government" though. Deliver (and vote through) a Queen's King's Speech? Or a vote of confidence?
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
He reported what he saw, and the MPs involved (specifically, those on the receiving end) have chosen to say that they weren’t mistreated. That doesn’t mean that his allegations were demolished.
Well quite - you simply could not get a more impartial observer of politics in action than a Labour MP commenting while losing a parliamentary vote so heavily to the government.
Or a more reliable witness than a victim coming under huge pressure not to let the side down by pursuing a complaint.
Happy to accept the conclusions of the Sarjeant at arms aren't you?
Hard to tell if that’s a statement or a question but personally I think the conclusions don’t pass the smell test. Relying on the testimony of a named victim who couldn’t be protected from the consequences of a complaint doesn’t seem right. Also the statement having a go at Bryant for taking photos seems gratuitous. Whether he’s right or wrong it’s clear he really believes that undue pressure was being exerted.
In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.
I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.
So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.
My current hunch.
50% Sunak 45% Starmer 5% Another Tory
If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.
As an aside, and a general question to PB at large, when do you think Sunak will go to the country?
The three most likely dates are: May 2024 - Usual spring election with less than 12 months to go. Disadvantage is this is only 18 months away now, and if Sunak loses, whilst it won't be Truss levels of tenure, he'll be firmly down there with the likes of Douglas-Home in the length he's served. It's unlikely he'll do a Wilson and be able to come back.
October 2024 - Hanging on for five more months without a 'to the death' election like Major did. Bit longer to turn things around and not too late in the year that the dark nights have completely set in.
January 2025 - If I'm going to lose, I'm going to hang on to the bitter end election. I think if he does this, he'll lose from people voting against him for the sheer obvious desperation he'll be showing.
I think October 2024 is most likely, followed by May 24 then January 25.
OT. Much will depend on how the spending review impacts both individuals and the economy. We're also probably some distance from a GE and at the moment the Labour message is 'we're not them'. As time progresses that could come under a lot more scrutiny. The public over the last year or so have shown how fickle they can be. No reason why that will change anytime soon. Indeed on here only days ago people were crowing that Sunak had received no bounce. Now they're desperately flap[ping around trying to rubbish him as the signs of the bounce become clearer. The misguided pile-in on Braveman is an example of the rather poor tactics on display.
In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.
I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.
So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.
My current hunch.
50% Sunak 45% Starmer 5% Another Tory
If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.
One of the things I feel make Starmer more likely as PM versus Sunak is in the event of a hung parliament, Starmer is the only viable PM. So Sunak needs to hold onto his majority, not just keep Cons as the largest party. I say this because it seems clear that a) Tories losing their majority would be seen as a clear statement the public has lost trust in them (similar to Gordon Brown losing the majority in 2010) and b) no other party would be willing to prop up this Conservative government (I would include the DUP in that after their brush with May and Johnson). So whilst it may not be a 70+% chance Lab makes a majority, I think it is clearly a 70+% chance that the Tories lose theirs, and what happens after will be a Starmer premiership.
On the other hand, Sunak is the man in possession. Him simply losing his majority doesn't automatically make Sir Keir PM, he then has to assemble an alternative majority. Although the landing zone for a hung parliament where Sir Keir can't assemble a majority is much smaller than usual, it's not nonexistent. A hopelessly hung parliament where there's no majority for anyone leading to a quick second general election returns Sunak as the winner in the market highlighted in the header.
Rules say "If no new PM is appointed before a further general election, this market will be void."
Also say "The incumbent PM will be settled as the winner if they successfully form a new government (which may not require the specific invitation above)."
Slightly unclear about what is meant by "successfully form a new government" though. Deliver (and vote through) a Queen's King's Speech? Or a vote of confidence?
That's alarmingly ambiguous. I assume the intention is to void the market in the scenario I posited, which seems mildly unfair, but I'm not sure the wording is tight enough to do so.
Yes; Sunak is marginally better at politics than Boris was.
Only marginally, mind.
I think people may be underestimating Sunak….admittedly his immediate predecessors represent a very low base, but I think he’s cannier than people give him credit for.
Sunak is undoubtedly a very clever, focused and ambitious chap. He would go far in a world-class consultancy business or investment bank. But the question of his political skills is completely different. I haven't seen much evidence that he has the kind of incredible political abilities he would need to turn things around for the Tories. If anything, he appears to lack decent political instincts and his lack of experience is showing. He is the best the Tories have now, but I can't see him winning the next election.
I think of him like a mastermind contestant who has spent all his time on the specialist subject but has no general knowledge.
Could be one of the downsides of forever striving for the next career high: leaving no time to look around.
Via @DeltapollUK, 28-31 Oct. Changes w/ 13-17 Oct.
Again, that's not so much of a Sunak bounce as a (relatively modest) Trussaster unwind. Hmm.
But you need to judge the bounce at its top, not whilst its happening/ongoing. May and Johnson both plateaued after about a month, Johnson getting a second bounce after 3 months into the election. If it plateaus here, yep, crap bounce, but if we get two or three more weeks of 3% or so swing, a bit better
Yes; Sunak is marginally better at politics than Boris was.
Only marginally, mind.
I think people may be underestimating Sunak….admittedly his immediate predecessors represent a very low base, but I think he’s cannier than people give him credit for.
Sunak is undoubtedly a very clever, focused and ambitious chap. He would go far in a world-class consultancy business or investment bank. But the question of his political skills is completely different. I haven't seen much evidence that he has the kind of incredible political abilities he would need to turn things around for the Tories. If anything, he appears to lack decent political instincts and his lack of experience is showing. He is the best the Tories have now, but I can't see him winning the next election.
Yes - clearly smart and talented, but political instincts? Initial evidence doesn't look good.
He had those comments about defunding under-funded areas. The green card thing either shows a lack of confidence in his political career or is a bit tone deaf. And given he is a billionaire, wouldn't it be smart to cancel the non-dom status? Just seems like an unnecessary attack line to set up for political opponents. His pitch of being the dry economic candidate was clearly a complete misreading of the Tory membership he needed to win over.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
Did your mummy never tell you it was rude to butt into other people's conversations Adolf. GIRFUY
Malcolm obviously you're the intentionally funniest poster on PB that goes without saying. Using "Adolf" as a term of anything, however, to another poster I don't think burnishes your funny guy credentials.
I agree Topping but this guy is so nasty it is well merited and until he stops writing abusive posts to me at all times I will return the compliment. He is a nasty nasty piece of work and I will not accept the infantile abuse he constantly posts about me , it is not funny , just sheer nastiness. The clown is obsessed and clearly has issues.
Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?
He reported what he saw, and the MPs involved (specifically, those on the receiving end) have chosen to say that they weren’t mistreated. That doesn’t mean that his allegations were demolished.
Well quite - you simply could not get a more impartial observer of politics in action than a Labour MP commenting while losing a parliamentary vote so heavily to the government.
Or a more reliable witness than a victim coming under huge pressure not to let the side down by pursuing a complaint.
Happy to accept the conclusions of the Sarjeant at arms aren't you?
Hard to tell if that’s a statement or a question but personally I think the conclusions don’t pass the smell test. Relying on the testimony of a named victim who couldn’t be protected from the consequences of a complaint doesn’t seem right. Also the statement having a go at Bryant for taking photos seems gratuitous. Whether he’s right or wrong it’s clear he really believes that undue pressure was being exerted.
You and Bryant are both entitled to your opinions as are all the other witensses consulted. You don't like the result. Tough shit.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
I should have guessed you would be a Putin sockpuppet Foreskin, though I underestimated what an evil nasty piece of merde you really are.
Your childish attempts to annoy me by projecting your own Salmond nationalism/fascism on me, a centrist, are pathetic. Salmond took money from RT. You are an apologist for Salmond and therefore Putin.
You are just so fucking thick, but then you believe in nationalism, the thickos philosophy that is one step away (or zero steps in your case) from fascism.
Pull it up your bellend is showing and it is not a pretty sight.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Dulce et decorum est...
Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will. https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233
I have yet to track down the original Russian, but the "beauty of war" quote is probably fake.
This is in the context of Putin's heaven and silence joke at Valdai (which itself was very interesting but I wouldn't go to Twitter seeking intelligent commentary on it).
Non-Russophones be aware: there is no definite (or indefinite) article in Russian, so when translating into English you need to know what somebody is talking about before you choose between "war" and "the war". And there may not be a super-close equivalent for the Russian.
Simonyan does praise the war, or war, though, as making stuff clearer and in particular making what she sees as the life-or-death cultural conflict clearer. This is going by what I read on the Daily Beast in English.
Not on Twitter. I wouldn't wipe my a*se on Twitter.
Comparisons with Mishima aside (or the Spanish Legion with its "Long live death!", or Mussolini's hypostatisation of war), consider the Russian specificity. Apocalypse big in Russian culture? Shocker!
Doesn't look as though the next president in Russia is likely to be a westerniser...
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
Imagine if Russia played England at football, Malc. Who'd be the real men with the hairiest a*ses then, bearing in mind that Burns Night is big in Russia?
In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.
I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.
So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.
My current hunch.
50% Sunak 45% Starmer 5% Another Tory
If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.
One of the things I feel make Starmer more likely as PM versus Sunak is in the event of a hung parliament, Starmer is the only viable PM. So Sunak needs to hold onto his majority, not just keep Cons as the largest party. I say this because it seems clear that a) Tories losing their majority would be seen as a clear statement the public has lost trust in them (similar to Gordon Brown losing the majority in 2010) and b) no other party would be willing to prop up this Conservative government (I would include the DUP in that after their brush with May and Johnson). So whilst it may not be a 70+% chance Lab makes a majority, I think it is clearly a 70+% chance that the Tories lose theirs, and what happens after will be a Starmer premiership.
On the other hand, Sunak is the man in possession. Him simply losing his majority doesn't automatically make Sir Keir PM, he then has to assemble an alternative majority. Although the landing zone for a hung parliament where Sir Keir can't assemble a majority is much smaller than usual, it's not nonexistent. A hopelessly hung parliament where there's no majority for anyone leading to a quick second general election returns Sunak as the winner in the market highlighted in the header.
The obvious problem with any hung parliament is indeed in being able to assemble a majority. Assuming we end up in hung Parliament territory, then we'll probably have:
CON & LAB - Anywhere between 240 and 315 (each) LD and SNP - Likely in the teens for the first - maybe low 20s. Anywhere between 35 and 55 for the latter. The others - Plaid 3, 4 or 5? Greens 1-2? Norn Iron - Could be all over the place, but unlikely any party has more than 10 (DUP).
In NI, the SDLP will hang with Labour, the Alliance with the LD and the UUP likely with the Conservatives. The DUP will likely also go with the Cons, but who knows. I assume SF will abstain.
In GB, I can't see either the LD or SNP working with the Conservatives, even though it'll be 9 years since the Coalition. The LDs got burnt badly by this. They won't repeat this experiment for a while yet, and even if they could, a hung parliament means the Cons are on the way down. Like in 2010, I doubt LD would've ever helped Brown and Labour (they were seen as on their way out) even if Brown had offered PR without a referendum.
But a result like the 2017 exit poll could be a disaster for all parties (CON 314, Lab 262, SNP 35 and LD 14). As Osbourne wryly observed, this would be unworkable for everyone. A second election within six months would likely follow.
Cons above 315 is basically a Conservative 'win'. Cons between 305 and 315 is an unworkable hung parliament. Cons below that and it's probably a Labour/LD minority (with SNP support..... or maybe not).
Via @DeltapollUK, 28-31 Oct. Changes w/ 13-17 Oct.
Big question here is how sticky that Labour vote is going to be.
I would expect some to sheer off nearer the GE to LDs (when people remember they exist), but if they’re scoring low-mid 40s it’s difficult to see how they don’t achieve at least a small majority.
Tories appear to have arrested the rot. They now need to try and get back into the 30s. If they can get to the point where they’re getting 34-35% of the vote at the GE they make Labours task for a majority that much harder.
Via @DeltapollUK, 28-31 Oct. Changes w/ 13-17 Oct.
Big question here is how sticky that Labour vote is going to be.
I would expect some to sheer off nearer the GE to LDs (when people remember they exist), but if they’re scoring low-mid 40s it’s difficult to see how they don’t achieve at least a small majority.
Tories appear to have arrested the rot. They now need to try and get back into the 30s. If they can get to the point where they’re getting 34-35% of the vote at the GE they make Labours task for a majority that much harder.
Yeah im working on the assumption that 35/36 is probably the stop the majority total (obvs dependnding on LDs and Reform etc and the Scottish output)
In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.
I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.
So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.
My current hunch.
50% Sunak 45% Starmer 5% Another Tory
If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.
One of the things I feel make Starmer more likely as PM versus Sunak is in the event of a hung parliament, Starmer is the only viable PM. So Sunak needs to hold onto his majority, not just keep Cons as the largest party. I say this because it seems clear that a) Tories losing their majority would be seen as a clear statement the public has lost trust in them (similar to Gordon Brown losing the majority in 2010) and b) no other party would be willing to prop up this Conservative government (I would include the DUP in that after their brush with May and Johnson). So whilst it may not be a 70+% chance Lab makes a majority, I think it is clearly a 70+% chance that the Tories lose theirs, and what happens after will be a Starmer premiership.
On the other hand, Sunak is the man in possession. Him simply losing his majority doesn't automatically make Sir Keir PM, he then has to assemble an alternative majority. Although the landing zone for a hung parliament where Sir Keir can't assemble a majority is much smaller than usual, it's not nonexistent. A hopelessly hung parliament where there's no majority for anyone leading to a quick second general election returns Sunak as the winner in the market highlighted in the header.
The obvious problem with any hung parliament is indeed in being able to assemble a majority. Assuming we end up in hung Parliament territory, then we'll probably have:
CON & LAB - Anywhere between 240 and 315 (each) LD and SNP - Likely in the teens for the first - maybe low 20s. Anywhere between 35 and 55 for the latter. The others - Plaid 3, 4 or 5? Greens 1-2? Norn Iron - Could be all over the place, but unlikely any party has more than 10 (DUP).
In NI, the SDLP will hang with Labour, the Alliance with the LD and the UUP likely with the Conservatives. The DUP will likely also go with the Cons, but who knows. I assume SF will abstain.
In GB, I can't see either the LD or SNP working with the Conservatives, even though it'll be 9 years since the Coalition. The LDs got burnt badly by this. They won't repeat this experiment for a while yet, and even if they could, a hung parliament means the Cons are on the way down. Like in 2010, I doubt LD would've ever helped Brown and Labour (they were seen as on their way out) even if Brown had offered PR without a referendum.
But a result like the 2017 exit poll could be a disaster for all parties (CON 314, Lab 262, SNP 35 and LD 14). As Osbourne wryly observed, this would be unworkable for everyone. A second election within six months would likely follow.
Cons above 315 is basically a Conservative 'win'. Cons between 305 and 315 is an unworkable hung parliament. Cons below that and it's probably a Labour/LD minority (with SNP support..... or maybe not).
I'd agree with almost all of that - the only thing I'd add is that I would be surprised if the Lib Dems would actively put Labour in if Tories were to get most votes and most seats. The SNP, obviously, would.
Did any of them travel in a convoy of thousands without documentation?
Well in fairness her father probably did travel with thousands, although probably with documentation, but because they had it. Many don't. 30,000 arrived in a 3 month period, probably around 100,000 in total from Uganda and Kenya. It was different because it was only 2 countries and people involved were better organised (middle class) and it was a very specific time period and we were more welcoming, but essentially it was the same. If you take away those positives they may well have been in boats without papers. More so as the UK would have been the obvious place for them all to travel to once they were not welcome in Uganda and Kenya. Just because we made it easier for them doesn't make the current refugees less worthy.
I had to take a look at Lembit Opik, suddenly remembering he existed. He's taken quite the political journey these last few years if Wikipedia is to be believed, drifting towards trying to be President of Estonia and then speaking at Conservative conferences and then finally UKIP.
Via @DeltapollUK, 28-31 Oct. Changes w/ 13-17 Oct.
Big question here is how sticky that Labour vote is going to be.
I would expect some to sheer off nearer the GE to LDs (when people remember they exist), but if they’re scoring low-mid 40s it’s difficult to see how they don’t achieve at least a small majority.
Tories appear to have arrested the rot. They now need to try and get back into the 30s. If they can get to the point where they’re getting 34-35% of the vote at the GE they make Labours task for a majority that much harder.
That sheering off to the LDs question: it depends to what extent the not-Tory vote is actually anti-Tory.
Because I can well imagine the headline numbers being slightly lower for Labour and slightly higher for the LDs on election day than in the polling in the week before, but for that to be to the Tories' detriment in seat totals.
I had to take a look at Lembit Opik, suddenly remembering he existed. He's taken quite the political journey these last few years if Wikipedia is to be believed, drifting towards trying to be President of Estonia and then speaking at Conservative conferences and then finally UKIP.
Glad he's gone from the LDs now then.......
His Montgomeryshire loss in 2010 was the furthest down the target list Cameron's Tories got. Target 210 from memory
I had to take a look at Lembit Opik, suddenly remembering he existed. He's taken quite the political journey these last few years if Wikipedia is to be believed, drifting towards trying to be President of Estonia and then speaking at Conservative conferences and then finally UKIP.
Glad he's gone from the LDs now then.......
His Montgomeryshire loss in 2010 was the furthest down the target list Cameron's Tories got. Target 210 from memory
If I had a political party, the last person I'd want to be a member was Lembit Opik. The man is a certified idiot.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
I should have guessed you would be a Putin sockpuppet Foreskin, though I underestimated what an evil nasty piece of merde you really are.
Your childish attempts to annoy me by projecting your own Salmond nationalism/fascism on me, a centrist, are pathetic. Salmond took money from RT. You are an apologist for Salmond and therefore Putin.
You are just so fucking thick, but then you believe in nationalism, the thickos philosophy that is one step away (or zero steps in your case) from fascism.
Pull it up your bellend is showing and it is not a pretty sight.
I suspect my bellend is more attractive than your ugly fat, bald, hate filled face. Your wife certainly told me she thinks it is.
I had to take a look at Lembit Opik, suddenly remembering he existed. He's taken quite the political journey these last few years if Wikipedia is to be believed, drifting towards trying to be President of Estonia and then speaking at Conservative conferences and then finally UKIP.
Glad he's gone from the LDs now then.......
His Montgomeryshire loss in 2010 was the furthest down the target list Cameron's Tories got. Target 210 from memory
Why he was given Montgomeryshire I will never fathom.
I had to take a look at Lembit Opik, suddenly remembering he existed. He's taken quite the political journey these last few years if Wikipedia is to be believed, drifting towards trying to be President of Estonia and then speaking at Conservative conferences and then finally UKIP.
Glad he's gone from the LDs now then.......
I expect the Estonians are happy they ended up with Kaja Kallas rather than Lembit Opik.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
Did your mummy never tell you it was rude to butt into other people's conversations Adolf. GIRFUY
Malcolm obviously you're the intentionally funniest poster on PB that goes without saying. Using "Adolf" as a term of anything, however, to another poster I don't think burnishes your funny guy credentials.
I agree Topping but this guy is so nasty it is well merited and until he stops writing abusive posts to me at all times I will return the compliment. He is a nasty nasty piece of work and I will not accept the infantile abuse he constantly posts about me , it is not funny , just sheer nastiness. The clown is obsessed and clearly has issues.
Oh wipe away your tears. You are projecting again. The only reason I am rude to you is because you are abusive to others you disagree with. You are a thuggish bully and sadly there are those on here who are afraid to call you out because they then have to put up with your low intellect abuse. If you post less stupid and infantile prejudiced posts I will leave you alone.
Via @DeltapollUK, 28-31 Oct. Changes w/ 13-17 Oct.
Big question here is how sticky that Labour vote is going to be.
I would expect some to sheer off nearer the GE to LDs (when people remember they exist), but if they’re scoring low-mid 40s it’s difficult to see how they don’t achieve at least a small majority.
Tories appear to have arrested the rot. They now need to try and get back into the 30s. If they can get to the point where they’re getting 34-35% of the vote at the GE they make Labours task for a majority that much harder.
Tories could see a bit of return movement from Labour and a bit of counter-movement away to the LDs if they keep up the culture warfare on migrants for a bit.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
I should have guessed you would be a Putin sockpuppet Foreskin, though I underestimated what an evil nasty piece of merde you really are.
Your childish attempts to annoy me by projecting your own Salmond nationalism/fascism on me, a centrist, are pathetic. Salmond took money from RT. You are an apologist for Salmond and therefore Putin.
You are just so fucking thick, but then you believe in nationalism, the thickos philosophy that is one step away (or zero steps in your case) from fascism.
Pull it up your bellend is showing and it is not a pretty sight.
I suspect my bellend is more attractive than your ugly fat, bald, hate filled face. Your wife certainly told me she thinks it is.
Hey guys, get a room before the ban hammer exiles you there.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
I should have guessed you would be a Putin sockpuppet Foreskin, though I underestimated what an evil nasty piece of merde you really are.
Your childish attempts to annoy me by projecting your own Salmond nationalism/fascism on me, a centrist, are pathetic. Salmond took money from RT. You are an apologist for Salmond and therefore Putin.
You are just so fucking thick, but then you believe in nationalism, the thickos philosophy that is one step away (or zero steps in your case) from fascism.
Pull it up your bellend is showing and it is not a pretty sight.
I suspect my bellend is more attractive than your ugly fat, bald, hate filled face. Your wife certainly told me she thinks it is.
Hey guys, get a room before the ban hammer exiles you there.
I thought that was quite funny and proportionate. But I take your point and I apologise if anyone was offended
I had to take a look at Lembit Opik, suddenly remembering he existed. He's taken quite the political journey these last few years if Wikipedia is to be believed, drifting towards trying to be President of Estonia and then speaking at Conservative conferences and then finally UKIP.
Comments
If someone gets into a boat in another country and comes across there is practically speaking very little you can do if the French won’t cooperate
That after a period of time MPs have formally said "no sir, the bully didn't hit me, I fell over in the playground" is hardly a surprise.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4125089#Comment_4125089
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4032077#Comment_4032077
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4055934#Comment_4055934
This is no criticism of the individual posters there, but it does feel like novelty and polling wobbles lead to underestimation of the pit into which the Tories have fallen, whoever is leader. And Sunak has not been unerringly sure-of-foot this last week or two.
In the former case, it is not just that the Ukrainians are hitting them with their own counter-batteries, it is also the fact that barrels are made with lower quality metal and are deforming and become useless.
In the latter, Russia is now in the position of having to beg for shells from its few remaining allies.
Ukrainians are better trained, armed and - apparently - in defensive positions. Their casualties will be much lower
big boyFrance that did it?The Nagrant was an OK rifle. In 1890.
These people are just being sent to their deaths in the hope they’ll gum up the Ukranain military machine a little. It’s obscene, but that’s Russian military doctrine for you: the accompanying war crimes are part of the package deal.
You are just so fucking thick, but then you believe in nationalism, the thickos philosophy that is one step away (or zero steps in your case) from fascism.
LAB: 51% (-4)
CON: 26% (+3)
LDM: 9% (+2)
SNP: 4% (=)
GRN: 4% (=)
RFM: 3% (=)
Via @DeltapollUK, 28-31 Oct.
Changes w/ 13-17 Oct.
The French are not part of the problem, and they will not be part of the solution. Once people are in France, it's too late.
On numbers, even adjusting for the UK’s smaller population this would be like us losing 200 men a day. Every day, for month after grinding month. With one assumes 2-3 times that wounded. Their population just seems to take it on the chin.
Also say "The incumbent PM will be settled as the winner if they successfully form a new government (which may not require the specific invitation above)."
Slightly unclear about what is meant by "successfully form a new government" though. Deliver (and vote through) a Queen's King's Speech? Or a vote of confidence?
Could be one of the downsides of forever striving for the next career high: leaving no time to look around.
If it plateaus here, yep, crap bounce, but if we get two or three more weeks of 3% or so swing, a bit better
Yeah, maybe, hard to tell. It could be down to Sunak or it could be Not Liz. I guess we'll see how it plays out, only been a week or so.
He had those comments about defunding under-funded areas. The green card thing either shows a lack of confidence in his political career or is a bit tone deaf. And given he is a billionaire, wouldn't it be smart to cancel the non-dom status? Just seems like an unnecessary attack line to set up for political opponents. His pitch of being the dry economic candidate was clearly a complete misreading of the Tory membership he needed to win over.
See the report at the Daily Beast.
This is in the context of Putin's heaven and silence joke at Valdai (which itself was very interesting but I wouldn't go to Twitter seeking intelligent commentary on it).
Non-Russophones be aware: there is no definite (or indefinite) article in Russian, so when translating into English you need to know what somebody is talking about before you choose between "war" and "the war". And there may not be a super-close equivalent for the Russian.
Simonyan does praise the war, or war, though, as making stuff clearer and in particular making what she sees as the life-or-death cultural conflict clearer. This is going by what I read on the Daily Beast in English.
Not on Twitter. I wouldn't wipe my a*se on Twitter.
Comparisons with Mishima aside (or the Spanish Legion with its "Long live death!", or Mussolini's hypostatisation of war), consider the Russian specificity. Apocalypse big in Russian culture? Shocker!
Doesn't look as though the next president in Russia is likely to be a westerniser...
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587452982010212352?t=A-WQ8ROi8SGQsjeMjXV-pA&s=19
Figures off the floor but still dire govt/economy approvals
https://trib.al/Rx0iR33
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1587458971337740288/video/1
Assuming we end up in hung Parliament territory, then we'll probably have:
CON & LAB - Anywhere between 240 and 315 (each)
LD and SNP - Likely in the teens for the first - maybe low 20s. Anywhere between 35 and 55 for the latter.
The others - Plaid 3, 4 or 5? Greens 1-2?
Norn Iron - Could be all over the place, but unlikely any party has more than 10 (DUP).
In NI, the SDLP will hang with Labour, the Alliance with the LD and the UUP likely with the Conservatives. The DUP will likely also go with the Cons, but who knows. I assume SF will abstain.
In GB, I can't see either the LD or SNP working with the Conservatives, even though it'll be 9 years since the Coalition. The LDs got burnt badly by this. They won't repeat this experiment for a while yet, and even if they could, a hung parliament means the Cons are on the way down. Like in 2010, I doubt LD would've ever helped Brown and Labour (they were seen as on their way out) even if Brown had offered PR without a referendum.
But a result like the 2017 exit poll could be a disaster for all parties (CON 314, Lab 262, SNP 35 and LD 14). As Osbourne wryly observed, this would be unworkable for everyone. A second election within six months would likely follow.
Cons above 315 is basically a Conservative 'win'.
Cons between 305 and 315 is an unworkable hung parliament.
Cons below that and it's probably a Labour/LD minority (with SNP support..... or maybe not).
I would expect some to sheer off nearer the GE to LDs (when people remember they exist), but if they’re scoring low-mid 40s it’s difficult to see how they don’t achieve at least a small majority.
Tories appear to have arrested the rot. They now need to try and get back into the 30s. If they can get to the point where they’re getting 34-35% of the vote at the GE they make Labours task for a majority that much harder.
He's taken quite the political journey these last few years if Wikipedia is to be believed, drifting towards trying to be President of Estonia and then speaking at Conservative conferences and then finally UKIP.
Glad he's gone from the LDs now then.......
Because I can well imagine the headline numbers being slightly lower for Labour and slightly higher for the LDs on election day than in the polling in the week before, but for that to be to the Tories' detriment in seat totals.