Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
I’m doing a fair bit of slogging. You can’t get a bus in here
Is that a OO-scale model figure standing on a pebble?
BBC Licence fee frozen for 2 years (ie no rise in April 2022 or April 2023) by Dorries but rising again in April 2024 in line with CPI.
But for BBC LF, they always take average CPI for 12 months to previous Sept - so will be 12 months to Sept 23.
But it's not the CPI for Sept 23, it's the average of CPI reported for each of previous 12 months - ie take CPI reported in Oct 22, Nov 22 ..... Sept 23 and average the 12 figures.
Result is that BBC is going to get an enormous rise in Licence Fee in April 24 - close to 10%.
Are Sunak, Hunt and Donelan on top of this? They need to be. When all other public services are facing real terms cuts and they are proposing public sector salary increases of 2% for 23/24 it would be totally absurd for the BBC to get close to a 10% rise in April 24.
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
I’m surprised, given how generally unfavourable the coverage of Rwanda has been in the MSM, especially on TV, the support is that high.
The media and indeed the politically engaged are sometimes in a bubble and do not reflect the public's view
There is very much a tendency for politicians to tell the public what they should want as opposed to listening to what the public actually want. Labour did this in the red wall for years. Talked at the voters not to them.
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
I don't think that's how these numbers play out. I think these headline VI numbers reflect the anti-Tory vote, not the individual constituency tactical unwind.
What could be advantageous to the Tories, is that many of these would have had Lib Dems in 2nd place, and so ripe for Labour + LD tactical voting, which would wipe them out in many seats.
Obviously individual seats may vary massively, but the assumption was many of these might fall to Lib Dems. However with Labour being so far ahead in the polling I wonder if that confuses the tactical options, and the Tories might be more likely to sneak through the middle.
Very unlikely.
It means that people will feel it's safe to vote Liberal Democrat in places like Guildford and Winchester because Labour are unthreatening.
Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
I’m doing a fair bit of slogging. You can’t get a bus in here
Is that a OO-scale model figure standing on a pebble?
Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
I’m doing a fair bit of slogging. You can’t get a bus in here
Is that a OO-scale model figure standing on a pebble?
It’s me. I do look like quite a twat
Lol. The scientific team leader, Christian, led us to his favourite secret waterfall, then invited us all to do THAT
TBF it was a lot of fun getting in, and the noise of that cataract pounding down into the ravine was awesome. Totes buzzology
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
I think he has a good chance of holding those Red Wall seats with a significant majority. The ones with a small majority will probably go back to Labour.
On current polls certainly every red wall seat in the top 100 Labour target seats would go though he might hold a few beyond that
That will almost certainly change over the next few months IMO.
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
I’m doing a fair bit of slogging. You can’t get a bus in here
Is that a OO-scale model figure standing on a pebble?
It’s me. I do look like quite a twat
Lol. The scientific team leader, Christian, led us to his favourite secret waterfall, then invited us all to do THAT
TBF it was a lot of fun getting in, and the noise of that cataract pounding down into the ravine was awesome. Totes buzzology
You look like an unpainted World of Warcraft figure.
BBC Licence fee frozen for 2 years (ie no rise in April 2022 or April 2023) by Dorries but rising again in April 2024 in line with CPI.
But for BBC LF, they always take average CPI for 12 months to previous Sept - so will be 12 months to Sept 23.
But it's not the CPI for Sept 23, it's the average of CPI reported for each of previous 12 months - ie take CPI reported in Oct 22, Nov 22 ..... Sept 23 and average the 12 figures.
Result is that BBC is going to get an enormous rise in Licence Fee in April 24 - close to 10%.
Are Sunak, Hunt and Donelan on top of this? They need to be. When all other public services are facing real terms cuts and they are proposing public sector salary increases of 2% for 23/24 it would be totally absurd for the BBC to get close to a 10% rise in April 24.
They should be getting rid of the license fee and replacing it with a subscription model. Not rinsing the public for cash, especially when many people won’t be getting raises anywhere near that, to fund the BBC giving it an unfair advantage against its competitors.
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
'A spade a spade' is actually not racist in it's history.
TASS reports today that the Kremlin press office has reported that "it was stressed", meaning by Putin to Erdogan, that "the Kiev regime, with support from its Western patrons, used the humanitarian shipping corridor, created for the transportation of Ukrainian grain, to carry out strikes against the infrastructure and ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol".
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
The social grade split isn't as polarised as I had expected.
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
I’m surprised, given how generally unfavourable the coverage of Rwanda has been in the MSM, especially on TV, the support is that high.
The media and indeed the politically engaged are sometimes in a bubble and do not reflect the public's view
There is very much a tendency for politicians to tell the public what they should want as opposed to listening to what the public actually want. Labour did this in the red wall for years. Talked at the voters not to them.
They still are. Look at the way they piled on Braveman this week. May well have the opposite effect to that intended. Of course they cannot help themselves and are notably more vicious when it's someone they believe ought to be on their side.
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
It's nothing to do with class, and everything to do with whether you hate random other people. For example, having used the word 'libtard' suggests you hate a bunch of random other people.
BBC Licence fee frozen for 2 years (ie no rise in April 2022 or April 2023) by Dorries but rising again in April 2024 in line with CPI.
But for BBC LF, they always take average CPI for 12 months to previous Sept - so will be 12 months to Sept 23.
But it's not the CPI for Sept 23, it's the average of CPI reported for each of previous 12 months - ie take CPI reported in Oct 22, Nov 22 ..... Sept 23 and average the 12 figures.
Result is that BBC is going to get an enormous rise in Licence Fee in April 24 - close to 10%.
Are Sunak, Hunt and Donelan on top of this? They need to be. When all other public services are facing real terms cuts and they are proposing public sector salary increases of 2% for 23/24 it would be totally absurd for the BBC to get close to a 10% rise in April 24.
They should be getting rid of the license fee and replacing it with a subscription model. Not rinsing the public for cash, especially when many people won’t be getting raises anywhere near that, to fund the BBC giving it an unfair advantage against its competitors.
I know.
The thing is that Dorries spent all her time attacking the BBC and talking about getting rid of the Licence Fee - but she allowed the BBC to run rings round her and gave them an incredibly generous LF settlement without realising it.
Osborne 2011: 6 year LF freeze, BBC takes over funding of World Service
Dorries 2022 : 2 year LF freeze
And this was after the BBC decided to charge over 75s which it had been anticipated the BBC would not do in the 2017 settlement. The BBC were entitled to do this but the result is that the 2017 settlement was even more generous - CPI every year, plus abolition of £150m per year broadband contribution, plus extension of LF to IPlayer.
It's extraordinary that the BBC has got away with such a generous settlement - way more generous than most of the public sector.
But are Sunak and Hunt on top of this? I fear not as they have much more important things to deal with. But they should be.
TASS reports today that the Kremlin press office has reported that "it was stressed", meaning by Putin to Erdogan, that "the Kiev regime, with support from its Western patrons, used the humanitarian shipping corridor, created for the transportation of Ukrainian grain, to carry out strikes against the infrastructure and ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol".
Has the Ukrainian side denied this?
They are being accused of a war crime here.
They're accused of them every day of the week. Some of them they're probably guilty of.
I have to say though I would be extremely surprised if they had used the humanitarian corridor for such a purpose. Leaving aside morality arguments, they wouldn't have had much to gain from it while if any ships were hit in a counterattack their name would be absolute mud in the west.
I suspect this claim by Russia is an example of Politicians' Logic in action.
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
The social grade split isn't as polarised as I had expected.
That's the first time I've heard "social grade". Interesting that the view that the word "invasion" was used appropriately is even more prevalent among Tories (76-16) than among Leavers (73-16).
TASS reports today that the Kremlin press office has reported that "it was stressed", meaning by Putin to Erdogan, that "the Kiev regime, with support from its Western patrons, used the humanitarian shipping corridor, created for the transportation of Ukrainian grain, to carry out strikes against the infrastructure and ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol".
Has the Ukrainian side denied this?
They are being accused of a war crime here.
They're accused of them every day of the week. Some of them they're probably guilty of.
I have to say though I would be extremely surprised if they had used the humanitarian corridor for such a purpose. Leaving aside morality arguments, they wouldn't have had much to gain from it while if any ships were hit in a counterattack their name would be absolute mud in the west.
I suspect this claim by Russia is an example of Politicians' Logic in action.
Well, the Ukrainians are Nazi Satanists. At least according to the Russians. I presume Zelensky is a Jewish Nazi Satanist.
Breaking rules about using an agreed humanitarian corridor is just an extra sugar in the morning coffee, when you are rolling like that…..
I think the Ukrainians are getting bored with the accusations of war crimes. Especially from people who are commuting so many themselves.
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
The reach of BBC News probably means only 4 people watching know who Takeoff is.
And 2 of them don't give a shiny shit.
Apparently his band were ‘the Beatles of their generation’ according to that BBC live feed.
I guess that makes this unfortunate chap their John Lennon.
You think anybody will know who he was in 40 years time?
The BBC provided a helpful explanation of how repeating the brand name Versace sealed their greatness:
Mark Savage - Music correspondent
Migos were one of the most influential groups of their generation, pioneering a style of rapping in choppy, staccato triplets known as the "Migos flow".
You can hear it clearly on Versace, the band's breakout hit from 2013. The band repeat the song title in rapid bursts, placing emphasis on the middle syllable at the start of every bar. Like this:
Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
I’m doing a fair bit of slogging. You can’t get a bus in here
Is that a OO-scale model figure standing on a pebble?
OO-scale is rubbish! 1:76 gauge body shell on 1:87 gauge tracks!
If people are supportive of the Rwanda policy, they are supportive of something that isn't working. The deal was signed six months ago. Thus far, zero refugees have gone to Rwanda. The prospects of that improving significantly look bleak. And it's costing a fair bit of taxpayers' money.
Regardless of ideology, if you judge a policy on outcomes, then Rwanda is a poor policy. Not much more to say really, is there?
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
I don't think that's how these numbers play out. I think these headline VI numbers reflect the anti-Tory vote, not the individual constituency tactical unwind.
What could be advantageous to the Tories, is that many of these would have had Lib Dems in 2nd place, and so ripe for Labour + LD tactical voting, which would wipe them out in many seats.
Obviously individual seats may vary massively, but the assumption was many of these might fall to Lib Dems. However with Labour being so far ahead in the polling I wonder if that confuses the tactical options, and the Tories might be more likely to sneak through the middle.
Very unlikely.
It means that people will feel it's safe to vote Liberal Democrat in places like Guildford and Winchester because Labour are unthreatening.
I think Winchester is a very good bet for the orangey-yellow squad.
Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
I’m doing a fair bit of slogging. You can’t get a bus in here
Is that a OO-scale model figure standing on a pebble?
OO-scale is rubbish! 1:76 gauge body shell on 1:87 gauge tracks!
I thought you had left us for the red hot action over on Rail Forums?
If people are supportive of the Rwanda policy, they are supportive of something that isn't working. The deal was signed six months ago. Thus far, zero refugees have gone to Rwanda. The prospects of that improving significantly look bleak. And it's costing a fair bit of taxpayers' money.
Regardless of ideology, if you judge a policy on outcomes, then Rwanda is a poor policy. Not much more to say really, is there?
I thought it wasn't working because tofu eating lawyers had made a number of legal challenges to it
TASS reports today that the Kremlin press office has reported that "it was stressed", meaning by Putin to Erdogan, that "the Kiev regime, with support from its Western patrons, used the humanitarian shipping corridor, created for the transportation of Ukrainian grain, to carry out strikes against the infrastructure and ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol".
Has the Ukrainian side denied this?
They are being accused of a war crime here.
They're accused of them every day of the week. Some of them they're probably guilty of.
I have to say though I would be extremely surprised if they had used the humanitarian corridor for such a purpose. Leaving aside morality arguments, they wouldn't have had much to gain from it while if any ships were hit in a counterattack their name would be absolute mud in the west.
I suspect this claim by Russia is an example of Politicians' Logic in action.
Russia just being mardy arses. Only the Black Sea Fleet can use the waters of the Black Sea for warfare, apparently.
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
I don't think that's how these numbers play out. I think these headline VI numbers reflect the anti-Tory vote, not the individual constituency tactical unwind.
What could be advantageous to the Tories, is that many of these would have had Lib Dems in 2nd place, and so ripe for Labour + LD tactical voting, which would wipe them out in many seats.
Obviously individual seats may vary massively, but the assumption was many of these might fall to Lib Dems. However with Labour being so far ahead in the polling I wonder if that confuses the tactical options, and the Tories might be more likely to sneak through the middle.
Very unlikely.
It means that people will feel it's safe to vote Liberal Democrat in places like Guildford and Winchester because Labour are unthreatening.
I think Winchester is a very good bet for the orangey-yellow squad.
I would like to thank the Winchester LibDems for introducing me to the word coprophilia.
Admittedly, I would probably be happier if I didn't know the word. But you can't have everything.
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
The social grade split isn't as polarised as I had expected.
It's much more on age, isn't it? As ever, that seems to be the great divider.
TASS reports today that the Kremlin press office has reported that "it was stressed", meaning by Putin to Erdogan, that "the Kiev regime, with support from its Western patrons, used the humanitarian shipping corridor, created for the transportation of Ukrainian grain, to carry out strikes against the infrastructure and ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol".
Has the Ukrainian side denied this?
They are being accused of a war crime here.
They're accused of them every day of the week. Some of them they're probably guilty of.
I have to say though I would be extremely surprised if they had used the humanitarian corridor for such a purpose. Leaving aside morality arguments, they wouldn't have had much to gain from it while if any ships were hit in a counterattack their name would be absolute mud in the west.
I suspect this claim by Russia is an example of Politicians' Logic in action.
Russia just being mardy arses. Only the Black Sea Fleet can use the waters of the Black Sea for warfare, apparently.
The Russian logic is that any attempt by Ukraine to defend themselves is a provocation or an escalation.
Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
I’m doing a fair bit of slogging. You can’t get a bus in here
Is that a OO-scale model figure standing on a pebble?
OO-scale is rubbish! 1:76 gauge body shell on 1:87 gauge tracks!
TASS reports today that the Kremlin press office has reported that "it was stressed", meaning by Putin to Erdogan, that "the Kiev regime, with support from its Western patrons, used the humanitarian shipping corridor, created for the transportation of Ukrainian grain, to carry out strikes against the infrastructure and ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol".
Has the Ukrainian side denied this?
They are being accused of a war crime here.
They're accused of them every day of the week. Some of them they're probably guilty of.
I have to say though I would be extremely surprised if they had used the humanitarian corridor for such a purpose. Leaving aside morality arguments, they wouldn't have had much to gain from it while if any ships were hit in a counterattack their name would be absolute mud in the west.
I suspect this claim by Russia is an example of Politicians' Logic in action.
Russia just being mardy arses. Only the Black Sea Fleet can use the waters of the Black Sea for warfare, apparently.
The Russian logic is that any attempt by Ukraine to defend themselves is a provocation or an escalation.
A position shared by Stop the War, Lula, and all right thinking people everywhere.
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
It's nothing to do with class, and everything to do with whether you hate random other people. For example, having used the word 'libtard' suggests you hate a bunch of random other people.
It's certainly derogatory and offensive, but it does capture a certain behaviour and type: people whose Liberalism is engaged at an emotive level when certain issues come up such that it retards their ability to think rationally.
If people are supportive of the Rwanda policy, they are supportive of something that isn't working. The deal was signed six months ago. Thus far, zero refugees have gone to Rwanda. The prospects of that improving significantly look bleak. And it's costing a fair bit of taxpayers' money.
Regardless of ideology, if you judge a policy on outcomes, then Rwanda is a poor policy. Not much more to say really, is there?
But how many people who are supportive of the Rwanda policy actually know or care what it involves?
They just don't like immigrants, and anything hostile to them must be good. That's all they care about and all they need to know.
RCP has marked up the GOP Senate total gains to +4 - now including NH.
I've also put some money on Ladbrokes at 8/1 for the GOP to have 49 seats - don't think it will happen but it's good odds if you believe the polling is GOP biased.
Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
I’m doing a fair bit of slogging. You can’t get a bus in here
Is that a OO-scale model figure standing on a pebble?
OO-scale is rubbish! 1:76 gauge body shell on 1:87 gauge tracks!
RCP has marked up the GOP Senate total gains to +4 - now including NH.
I've also put some money on Ladbrokes at 8/1 for the GOP to have 49 seats - don't think it will happen but it's good odds if you believe the polling is GOP biased.
Poll out today has Bolduc (R) a point ahead of Hasan (D) 48 47 in NH, not sure what 'tilt' the pollster has (St Anselm College)
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
The reach of BBC News probably means only 4 people watching know who Takeoff is.
And 2 of them don't give a shiny shit.
Apparently his band were ‘the Beatles of their generation’ according to that BBC live feed.
I guess that makes this unfortunate chap their John Lennon.
You think anybody will know who he was in 40 years time?
The BBC provided a helpful explanation of how repeating the brand name Versace sealed their greatness:
Mark Savage - Music correspondent
Migos were one of the most influential groups of their generation, pioneering a style of rapping in choppy, staccato triplets known as the "Migos flow".
You can hear it clearly on Versace, the band's breakout hit from 2013. The band repeat the song title in rapid bursts, placing emphasis on the middle syllable at the start of every bar. Like this:
Ver | sac-e-Ver | sac-e-Ver | sac-e-Ver | sac-e
How wonderfully pretentious.
One for Pseuds corner.
Mark Savage shares a name with the actor who played Gripper in Grange Hill.
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
It's nothing to do with class, and everything to do with whether you hate random other people. For example, having used the word 'libtard' suggests you hate a bunch of random other people.
It's certainly derogatory and offensive, but it does capture a certain behaviour and type: people whose Liberalism is engaged at an emotive level when certain issues come up such that it retards their ability to think rationally.
Is it generically any diferent to the word 'redneck', which I take to be its opposite number?
TASS reports today that the Kremlin press office has reported that "it was stressed", meaning by Putin to Erdogan, that "the Kiev regime, with support from its Western patrons, used the humanitarian shipping corridor, created for the transportation of Ukrainian grain, to carry out strikes against the infrastructure and ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol".
Has the Ukrainian side denied this?
They are being accused of a war crime here.
They're accused of them every day of the week. Some of them they're probably guilty of.
I have to say though I would be extremely surprised if they had used the humanitarian corridor for such a purpose. Leaving aside morality arguments, they wouldn't have had much to gain from it while if any ships were hit in a counterattack their name would be absolute mud in the west.
I suspect this claim by Russia is an example of Politicians' Logic in action.
Russia just being mardy arses. Only the Black Sea Fleet can use the waters of the Black Sea for warfare, apparently.
The Russian logic is that any attempt by Ukraine to defend themselves is a provocation or an escalation.
A position shared by Stop the War, Lula, and all right thinking people everywhere.
No - it's not hogging a sea area, denying Ukraine's right to defend itself, or trying to stop the war.
No side is allowed to make use of the protection from hostile action that is afforded under a humanitarian agreement to which it is party to carry out acts of war.
That's called perfidy and it's a war crime.
This isn't barrack room lawyering. Cr*p all over humanitarian law or say you've got a right to do whatever you like to defend yourself and soon there won't be any humanitarian agreements - or in this case, grain shipments.
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
RCP has marked up the GOP Senate total gains to +4 - now including NH.
I've also put some money on Ladbrokes at 8/1 for the GOP to have 49 seats - don't think it will happen but it's good odds if you believe the polling is GOP biased.
Poll out today has Bolduc (R) a point ahead of Hasan (D) 48 47 in NH, not sure what 'tilt' the pollster has (St Anselm College)
Don't think they are particularly biased one way or the other.
Biden is campaigning for the NM Governor apparently and there are articles saying if the Ds losing the NY Governorship, then you should blame Andrew Cuomo. It does feel the late break is heading one way.
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
I don't think that's how these numbers play out. I think these headline VI numbers reflect the anti-Tory vote, not the individual constituency tactical unwind.
What could be advantageous to the Tories, is that many of these would have had Lib Dems in 2nd place, and so ripe for Labour + LD tactical voting, which would wipe them out in many seats.
Obviously individual seats may vary massively, but the assumption was many of these might fall to Lib Dems. However with Labour being so far ahead in the polling I wonder if that confuses the tactical options, and the Tories might be more likely to sneak through the middle.
Very unlikely.
It means that people will feel it's safe to vote Liberal Democrat in places like Guildford and Winchester because Labour are unthreatening.
I think Winchester is a very good bet for the orangey-yellow squad.
I would like to thank the Winchester LibDems for introducing me to the word coprophilia.
Admittedly, I would probably be happier if I didn't know the word. But you can't have everything.
It's been a while. Surely the nasty taste has gone by now?
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
The social grade split isn't as polarised as I had expected.
It's much more on age, isn't it? As ever, that seems to be the great divider.
Indeed, though it's worth remembering that the 50 to 64 year olds are the people who last put Labour in government.
TASS reports today that the Kremlin press office has reported that "it was stressed", meaning by Putin to Erdogan, that "the Kiev regime, with support from its Western patrons, used the humanitarian shipping corridor, created for the transportation of Ukrainian grain, to carry out strikes against the infrastructure and ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol".
Has the Ukrainian side denied this?
They are being accused of a war crime here.
They're accused of them every day of the week. Some of them they're probably guilty of.
I have to say though I would be extremely surprised if they had used the humanitarian corridor for such a purpose. Leaving aside morality arguments, they wouldn't have had much to gain from it while if any ships were hit in a counterattack their name would be absolute mud in the west.
I suspect this claim by Russia is an example of Politicians' Logic in action.
Russia just being mardy arses. Only the Black Sea Fleet can use the waters of the Black Sea for warfare, apparently.
The Russian logic is that any attempt by Ukraine to defend themselves is a provocation or an escalation.
A position shared by Stop the War, Lula, and all right thinking people everywhere.
No - it's not hogging a sea area, denying Ukraine's right to defend itself, or trying to stop the war.
No side is allowed to make use of the protection from hostile action that is afforded under a humanitarian agreement to which it is party to carry out acts of war.
That's called perfidy and it's a war crime.
This isn't barrack room lawyering. Cr*p all over humanitarian law or say you've got a right to do whatever you like to defend yourself and soon there won't be any humanitarian agreements - or in this case, grain shipments.
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
Hanging is popular, but that doesn’t make it right.
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
Do people actually understanding the policy? Or just like the concept?
Not sure that "we've spent £120m, its almost certainly illegal under English law on multiple fronts, and even if we get past that Rwanda won't actually accept any asylum seekers" will be as popular as you say.
RCP has marked up the GOP Senate total gains to +4 - now including NH.
I've also put some money on Ladbrokes at 8/1 for the GOP to have 49 seats - don't think it will happen but it's good odds if you believe the polling is GOP biased.
Poll out today has Bolduc (R) a point ahead of Hasan (D) 48 47 in NH, not sure what 'tilt' the pollster has (St Anselm College)
Don't think they are particularly biased one way or the other.
Biden is campaigning for the NM Governor apparently and there are articles saying if the Ds losing the NY Governorship, then you should blame Andrew Cuomo. It does feel the late break is heading one way.
I saw something earlier that factions within the NY Dems are blaming Hochul for holding back the rest of the ticket
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
Hanging is popular, but that doesn’t make it right.
Lockdowns too. And pretty much all of the liberty stripping covid legislation.
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
Do people actually understanding the policy? Or just like the concept?
Not sure that "we've spent £120m, its almost certainly illegal under English law on multiple fronts, and even if we get past that Rwanda won't actually accept any asylum seekers" will be as popular as you say.
It is not me saying it - it is a YouGov poll
As far as the law is concerned that is yet to be resolved but 42% support indicates that it is not as unpopular as some would hope
RCP has marked up the GOP Senate total gains to +4 - now including NH.
I've also put some money on Ladbrokes at 8/1 for the GOP to have 49 seats - don't think it will happen but it's good odds if you believe the polling is GOP biased.
Poll out today has Bolduc (R) a point ahead of Hasan (D) 48 47 in NH, not sure what 'tilt' the pollster has (St Anselm College)
That's a good poll for Bolduc.
Personally, I'd be surprised if the Republicans win NH, because they almost never evict sitting Senators (not sure it's happened since WW2).
But in a Red Wave, it could well happen.
Edit to add: my rough guesstimation is that (a) Republicans tend to outperform polls, and (b) incumbents tend to outperform polls. I'd add a new (c), which is that I would expect the Republicans to perform better in Hispanic-heavy states.
Which means I'm pretty negative about the Dems in NV, on the fence in AZ, but would be surprised if they lost in NH.
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
Hanging is popular, but that doesn’t make it right.
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
The reach of BBC News probably means only 4 people watching know who Takeoff is.
And 2 of them don't give a shiny shit.
Apparently his band were ‘the Beatles of their generation’ according to that BBC live feed.
I guess that makes this unfortunate chap their John Lennon.
You think anybody will know who he was in 40 years time?
I've heard of Migos, but only from a "which is the odd one out" question with ethos, logos and pathos...
more of the oeuvre
Man, fuck, my momma hear my phone. Twelve in my home, they won't leave me alone. My dubstep works, hit by the dirt, right in the zerp. There's a hundred on that quick truck. N---a you turn get outta here. Two two minutes, nice and seen it, grab. Man somebody tell the snakes. He gon tim bance syrup get set. What you mean? Hand you the pistol, hit a mack eleven. Sister car right now holdin n---a dead in seven. Got off the phone with Gucci he told us we on the new. We all over the channels, five five eleven and two. He said be sailor bros and hit me when you need some money. We takin different parts and planes we bout to leave the country.
and, utterly bizarrely, a genuine California statute which expressly forbids prosecutors relying on lyrics of that kind as evidence against the author, if he is accused of drug dealing and gun violence, because Artistic Expression innit.
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
Hanging is popular, but that doesn’t make it right.
As might be expected, with two new parties taking one sixth of the vote, quite a bit of churn in the shares but the only questions are which way will the Moderates jump and how close the centre-left will get to 90 seats?
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
Hanging is popular, but that doesn’t make it right.
Imagine if Labour said that asylum seekers to the UK would have their valuables confiscated in order to pay for their accommodation, and that no neighbourhood could have more than a certain percentage of migrants. That's the official policy of the Social Democrat government in Denmark AFAIK.
RCP has marked up the GOP Senate total gains to +4 - now including NH.
I've also put some money on Ladbrokes at 8/1 for the GOP to have 49 seats - don't think it will happen but it's good odds if you believe the polling is GOP biased.
Poll out today has Bolduc (R) a point ahead of Hasan (D) 48 47 in NH, not sure what 'tilt' the pollster has (St Anselm College)
That's a good poll for Bolduc.
Personally, I'd be surprised if the Republicans win NH, because they almost never evict sitting Senators (not sure it's happened since WW2).
But in a Red Wave, it could well happen.
I see the Libertarian has pulled out in Arizona and backed Masters. Might make the difference if Lake breaks through and carries Masters along cross ticket
TASS reports today that the Kremlin press office has reported that "it was stressed", meaning by Putin to Erdogan, that "the Kiev regime, with support from its Western patrons, used the humanitarian shipping corridor, created for the transportation of Ukrainian grain, to carry out strikes against the infrastructure and ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol".
Has the Ukrainian side denied this?
They are being accused of a war crime here.
They're accused of them every day of the week. Some of them they're probably guilty of.
I have to say though I would be extremely surprised if they had used the humanitarian corridor for such a purpose. Leaving aside morality arguments, they wouldn't have had much to gain from it while if any ships were hit in a counterattack their name would be absolute mud in the west.
I suspect this claim by Russia is an example of Politicians' Logic in action.
Russia just being mardy arses. Only the Black Sea Fleet can use the waters of the Black Sea for warfare, apparently.
The Russian logic is that any attempt by Ukraine to defend themselves is a provocation or an escalation.
A position shared by Stop the War, Lula, and all right thinking people everywhere.
No - it's not hogging a sea area, denying Ukraine's right to defend itself, or trying to stop the war.
No side is allowed to make use of the protection from hostile action that is afforded under a humanitarian agreement to which it is party to carry out acts of war.
That's called perfidy and it's a war crime.
This isn't barrack room lawyering. Cr*p all over humanitarian law or say you've got a right to do whatever you like to defend yourself and soon there won't be any humanitarian agreements - or in this case, grain shipments.
You seem to be commenting on the basis that is what Ukraine did - use the shelter of humanitarian convoys to move weapons. An assertion backed up by zero evidence as far as I can see.
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
Hanging is popular, but that doesn’t make it right.
That's a much higher level for appropriate use of the word "invasion" than I'd thought.
"Where are they all flocking from?"
What the MSM and establishment don't realise is that the average working Joe neither recognises nor understands the complex rules around language that the upper-middle/professional classes subscribe to.
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
It's nothing to do with class, and everything to do with whether you hate random other people. For example, having used the word 'libtard' suggests you hate a bunch of random other people.
It's certainly derogatory and offensive, but it does capture a certain behaviour and type: people whose Liberalism is engaged at an emotive level when certain issues come up such that it retards their ability to think rationally.
Is it generically any diferent to the word 'redneck', which I take to be its opposite number?
I notice yougov have 42%/37% support Rwanda policy
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Although strongly oppose is just ahead of strongly support - and both are in the mid-20s.
It doesn't alter the fact that the policy is not as unpopular with the public as many would have you believe, and of course it is legal challenges that are preventing its implementation
Do people actually understanding the policy? Or just like the concept?
Not sure that "we've spent £120m, its almost certainly illegal under English law on multiple fronts, and even if we get past that Rwanda won't actually accept any asylum seekers" will be as popular as you say.
It is not me saying it - it is a YouGov poll
As far as the law is concerned that is yet to be resolved but 42% support indicates that it is not as unpopular as some would hope
Thats literally my point - how many people polled have a clue about the detail or practicality?
Comments
https://twitter.com/the_tuc/status/1587468197019648001?s=61&t=4rOaQPm-NiGt6NrJrQyjag
Rwanda and invasion is virtue signalling.
Safe and legal routes and fighting far-right strawman is virtue signalling.
Absolutely no-one is interested in pragmatic political solutions that bring people together.
But for BBC LF, they always take average CPI for 12 months to previous Sept - so will be 12 months to Sept 23.
But it's not the CPI for Sept 23, it's the average of CPI reported for each of previous 12 months - ie take CPI reported in Oct 22, Nov 22 ..... Sept 23 and average the 12 figures.
Result is that BBC is going to get an enormous rise in Licence Fee in April 24 - close to 10%.
Are Sunak, Hunt and Donelan on top of this? They need to be. When all other public services are facing real terms cuts and they are proposing public sector salary increases of 2% for 23/24 it would be totally absurd for the BBC to get close to a 10% rise in April 24.
It means that people will feel it's safe to vote Liberal Democrat in places like Guildford and Winchester because Labour are unthreatening.
Lol. The scientific team leader, Christian, led us to his favourite secret waterfall, then invited us all to do THAT
TBF it was a lot of fun getting in, and the noise of that cataract pounding down into the ravine was awesome. Totes buzzology
·
45m
How should the government deficit be closed?
All through tax rises: 14%
Mostly tax rises: 19%
Equally tax rises and spending cuts: 25%
Mostly spending cuts: 9%
All spending cuts: 8%
They are baffled at the presumption that using the wrong ones must mean they are bigoted/racist because they themselves are not and they simply call a spade a spade.
Has the Ukrainian side denied this?
They are being accused of a war crime here.
The thing is that Dorries spent all her time attacking the BBC and talking about getting rid of the Licence Fee - but she allowed the BBC to run rings round her and gave them an incredibly generous LF settlement without realising it.
Osborne 2011: 6 year LF freeze, BBC takes over funding of World Service
Dorries 2022 : 2 year LF freeze
And this was after the BBC decided to charge over 75s which it had been anticipated the BBC would not do in the 2017 settlement. The BBC were entitled to do this but the result is that the 2017 settlement was even more generous - CPI every year, plus abolition of £150m per year broadband contribution, plus extension of LF to IPlayer.
It's extraordinary that the BBC has got away with such a generous settlement - way more generous than most of the public sector.
But are Sunak and Hunt on top of this? I fear not as they have much more important things to deal with. But they should be.
I have to say though I would be extremely surprised if they had used the humanitarian corridor for such a purpose. Leaving aside morality arguments, they wouldn't have had much to gain from it while if any ships were hit in a counterattack their name would be absolute mud in the west.
I suspect this claim by Russia is an example of Politicians' Logic in action.
Interesting that the view that the word "invasion" was used appropriately is even more prevalent among Tories (76-16) than among Leavers (73-16).
Breaking rules about using an agreed humanitarian corridor is just an extra sugar in the morning coffee, when you are rolling like that…..
I think the Ukrainians are getting bored with the accusations of war crimes. Especially from people who are commuting so many themselves.
Migos were one of the most influential groups of their generation, pioneering a style of rapping in choppy, staccato triplets known as the "Migos flow".
You can hear it clearly on Versace, the band's breakout hit from 2013. The band repeat the song title in rapid bursts, placing emphasis on the middle syllable at the start of every bar. Like this:
Ver | sac-e-Ver | sac-e-Ver | sac-e-Ver | sac-e
You wait ages for an election...
So after Brazil on Sunday night, and with the US midterms a week away, today it's Israel and Denmark.
And indeed, there are one or two similarities - both have a fairly pure form of PR, both have lots of parties, and both have new parties featuring.
Polls close at 7pm UK time in Denmark and 8pm UK time in Israel.
Denmark links:
https://www.dr.dk/drtv/kanal/20875
https://kmdvalg.dk/Main
https://politiken.dk/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Danish_general_election
Will try and find some Israel links in a bit.
Thanks,
DC
(and "Tusen tak" to Stodge for all the updates)
Regardless of ideology, if you judge a policy on outcomes, then Rwanda is a poor policy. Not much more to say really, is there?
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/live-foelg-folketingsvalget-2022
Admittedly, I would probably be happier if I didn't know the word. But you can't have everything.
He needs to work on this. Become more political. More independent. More robust. Less naïve.
They just don't like immigrants, and anything hostile to them must be good. That's all they care about and all they need to know.
I've also put some money on Ladbrokes at 8/1 for the GOP to have 49 seats - don't think it will happen but it's good odds if you believe the polling is GOP biased.
One for Pseuds corner.
Mark Savage shares a name with the actor who played Gripper in Grange Hill.
No side is allowed to make use of the protection from hostile action that is afforded under a humanitarian agreement to which it is party to carry out acts of war.
That's called perfidy and it's a war crime.
This isn't barrack room lawyering. Cr*p all over humanitarian law or say you've got a right to do whatever you like to defend yourself and soon there won't be any humanitarian agreements - or in this case, grain shipments.
Seems very early to be honest
https://politiken.dk/indland/politik/folketingsvalg_2022/resultater/
Biden is campaigning for the NM Governor apparently and there are articles saying if the Ds losing the NY Governorship, then you should blame Andrew Cuomo. It does feel the late break is heading one way.
Hunt and Sunak are absolutely not going to challenge the managed decline status quo.
At least the Heathites will own the next defeat.
Not sure that "we've spent £120m, its almost certainly illegal under English law on multiple fronts, and even if we get past that Rwanda won't actually accept any asylum seekers" will be as popular as you say.
It seems that the clocks going back has replaced December 1st.
As far as the law is concerned that is yet to be resolved but 42% support indicates that it is not as unpopular as some would hope
Personally, I'd be surprised if the Republicans win NH, because they almost never evict sitting Senators (not sure it's happened since WW2).
But in a Red Wave, it could well happen.
Edit to add: my rough guesstimation is that (a) Republicans tend to outperform polls, and (b) incumbents tend to outperform polls. I'd add a new (c), which is that I would expect the Republicans to perform better in Hispanic-heavy states.
Which means I'm pretty negative about the Dems in NV, on the fence in AZ, but would be surprised if they lost in NH.
Man, fuck, my momma hear my phone. Twelve in my home, they won't leave me alone. My dubstep works, hit by the dirt, right in the zerp. There's a hundred on that quick truck. N---a you turn get outta here. Two two minutes, nice and seen it, grab. Man somebody tell the snakes. He gon tim bance syrup get set. What you mean? Hand you the pistol, hit a mack eleven. Sister car right now holdin n---a dead in seven. Got off the phone with Gucci he told us we on the new. We all over the channels, five five eleven and two. He said be sailor bros and hit me when you need some money. We takin different parts and planes we bout to leave the country.
and, utterly bizarrely, a genuine California statute which expressly forbids prosecutors relying on lyrics of that kind as evidence against the author, if he is accused of drug dealing and gun violence, because Artistic Expression innit.
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/california-bill-banning-rap-lyrics-as-evidence-heads-to-governor-1234579851/
LOL @ Takeoff.
Exit polls coming out from Denmark - the early prediction is 85 seats for the centre-left parties, 73 for the centre-right and 17 for the Moderates.
In vote shares, the Epinion exit poll which Danmarks Radio is using, as follows (changes from 2019):
Social Democrats: 23.1% (-2.8)
Venstre: 13.5% (-9.9)
Green Left: 9.6% (+1.9)
Moderates: 9.3% (new)
Liberal Alliance: 9.0% (+6.7)
Denmark Democrats: 6.9% (new)
Unity List: 6.2% (-0.7)
Conservatives: 5.5% (-1.1)
Radikale Venstre: 4.7% (-3.9)
Alternative: 3.9% (+0.9)
New Right: 3.8% (+1.4)
Danish People's Party: 2.5% (-6.2)
As might be expected, with two new parties taking one sixth of the vote, quite a bit of churn in the shares but the only questions are which way will the Moderates jump and how close the centre-left will get to 90 seats?
🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮