Punters give Sunak a 23% chance of winning the general election – politicalbetting.com

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Punters give Sunak a 23% chance of winning the general election – politicalbetting.com

Above is the Smarkets betting market on who will be the prime minister after the next general election. As can be seen punters are still very strongly with Starmer while Sunak is down as a 23% chance.

Read the full story here

wooliedyed

Redfield Blue Wall poll out tonight. Lets see how the 'safe' seats are holding up first!

Alphabet_Soup

Second like, well, erm, I dunno.

MaxPB

Think it's lower than that right now. Rishi has a huge mountain to climb and the migrant crisis needs a resolution before the end of the year so that no more boats arrive from France in 2023 and the majority of the ones who have arrived are deported back to Albania. I don't think this government is up to the job and that means they will lose in 2024.

TimS

wooliedyed said:

Redfield Blue Wall poll out tonight. Lets see how the 'safe' seats are holding up first!

I suspect we’re still not in the stable post-Truss polling state yet. Couple of weeks of Sunak before we can be sure the size of bounce, and the longer term momentum.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens to polling on issues given the current Braverman furore. Will immigration go up the list of concerns because of the blanket coverage? If not then it suggests the economy will continue to dominate for a while.

OnlyLivingBoy

23% is too high. Sunak would be the most gifted politician of recent decades if he managed to dig the Conservatives out of their current hole against the grim economic backdrop, party in-fighting and all-pervasive stench of decay hanging over the Tories. I see no evidence that he is that gifted - quite the contrary to date.

Alphabet_Soup

OnlyLivingBoy said:

23% is too high. Sunak would be the most gifted politician of recent decades if he managed to dig the Conservatives out of their current hole against the grim economic backdrop, party in-fighting and all-pervasive stench of decay hanging over the Tories. I see no evidence that he is that gifted - quite the contrary to date.

From a betting angle the question is whether 23% is a low point or a high point. It's possible Sunak may crawl up to 35% or 40% with a bit of luck over the next two years, offering early investors a modest profit. Or, of course, he could disappear down the drain like incy-wincy spider.

bondegezou

4% for Wallace is way too high!

AlistairM

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

Leon

I’d say Sunak has about a 4% chance….. if it weren’t for that unexpected polling which has Sunak as preferred PM. That is his one slender hope. And it is not entirely trivial

WillG

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

The irony in all this is that Putin is the hero that white supremacists laud, yet he is responsible for more deaths of white people than anyone since Adolf Hitler.

Scott_xP

Parties are upping the ante on their Hancock hot takes.

Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael says Hancock would "rather spend his time gargling pig semen in the jungle than spend another minute on the backbenches"

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1587421692191703048

WillG

Leon said:

I’d say Sunak has about a 4% chance….. if it weren’t for that unexpected polling which has Sunak as preferred PM. That is his one slender hope. And it is not entirely trivial

Levelling up the regions plus restricting low skill migration plus general perception of competence. If he does that he will win.

Leon

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

Leon

Iceland does a fantastic India Pale Ale

Ul Fur Nr. 3

The worldwide beer revolution is a great thing

Jonathan

In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.

I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.

So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.

My current hunch.

50% Sunak
45% Starmer
5% Another Tory

If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.

JosiasJessop

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

The whole mess is horrific and so utterly unnecessary. But the solution lies in one person's hands: only Putin can stop this bloodshed. No-one else.

Leon

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

The whole mess is horrific and so utterly unnecessary. But the solution lies in one person's hands: only Putin can stop this bloodshed. No-one else.

That’s not quite true. A well placed general in Moscow could do us all a favour, with an open window….

felix

FPT:

1:31PM

CarlottaVance said:

Who was telling porkies?

Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has told the Commons there is no evidence of bullying or undue influence being placed on MPs during the vote on fracking

He says an investigation also found that no MP was pushed

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1587408556181053440

Pretty obvious who was the " liar liar pants on fire " - Bryant has form when it comes to knickers.

DecrepiterJohnL

Scott_xP said:

Parties are upping the ante on their Hancock hot takes.

Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael says Hancock would "rather spend his time gargling pig semen in the jungle than spend another minute on the backbenches"

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1587421692191703048

Hancock is 20/1 with bookmakers, and a bit longer with Betfair. Early days yet. Go in early and you run the risk of ITV adding more contestants, as just happened.

WillG

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

For all the talk of feminists, those most likely to die at the hands of their own government are poor young men.

Driver

felix said:

FPT:

1:31PM

CarlottaVance said:

Who was telling porkies?

Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has told the Commons there is no evidence of bullying or undue influence being placed on MPs during the vote on fracking

He says an investigation also found that no MP was pushed

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1587408556181053440

Pretty obvious who was the " liar liar pants on fire " - Bryant has form when it comes to knickers.

The Chair of the Committee on Standards...

kinabalu

Leon said:

I’d say Sunak has about a 4% chance….. if it weren’t for that unexpected polling which has Sunak as preferred PM. That is his one slender hope. And it is not entirely trivial

Ooo no it's not that low. Things can happen over a couple of years and sometimes they do.

Peter_the_Punter

Jonathan said:

In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.

I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.

So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.

My current hunch.

50% Sunak
45% Starmer
5% Another Tory

If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.

Don't open a book on those numbers, Jonathan! Wouldn't want to see you hurt in the stampede of eager punters,

JosiasJessop

Leon said:

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

The whole mess is horrific and so utterly unnecessary. But the solution lies in one person's hands: only Putin can stop this bloodshed. No-one else.

That’s not quite true. A well placed general in Moscow could do us all a favour, with an open window….

Well, that's the same thing, isn't it? Putin stopping the bloodshed by accidentally dying. Which is not a totally implausible solution.

But as I daresay Dura_Ace would add, there's no guarantee that whomever replaces Putin is any better than him. I disagree with that, but it is a worrying possibility.

Leon

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

Phil

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

It is absolutely terrible.

& there seems no way of stopping it in the short term, since Putin is willing to throw as many of Russia’s people into the meatgrinder of the war as he can lay his hands on.

They’ve even sent a neuroseurgeon to the front lines, if this article is to be believed: https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/10/31/russias-bashkortostan-the-only-childrens-neurosurgeon-in-city-of-sterlitamak-drafted-under-partial-mobilisation-en-news

Absolute madness; just throwing away the lives of the nation for no good end whatsoever.

WillG

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

Usually there isn't the technological gap between the attackers and defenders here. And now many Russians are untrained conscripts. I suspect the death numbers are roughly even between Russia and Ukraine.

Scott_xP

UK house prices have fallen for the first time in over a year

Expect further declines as rising mortgage costs squeeze potential buyers, writes @John_Stepek https://trib.al/JBrcT2t

Jonathan

Peter_the_Punter said:

Jonathan said:

In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.

I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.

So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.

My current hunch.

50% Sunak
45% Starmer
5% Another Tory

If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.

Don't open a book on those numbers, Jonathan! Wouldn't want to see you hurt in the stampede of eager punters,

Definitely.

Having been through countless disappointments (1992 and all that), noting that Labour have not won from such a weak position in my lifetime and that mid term polls are pretty much always wrong, my hunch is still that it will be lot closer than the headlines suggest.

WillG

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

The whole mess is horrific and so utterly unnecessary. But the solution lies in one person's hands: only Putin can stop this bloodshed. No-one else.

That’s not quite true. A well placed general in Moscow could do us all a favour, with an open window….

Well, that's the same thing, isn't it? Putin stopping the bloodshed by accidentally dying. Which is not a totally implausible solution.

But as I daresay Dura_Ace would add, there's no guarantee that whomever replaces Putin is any better than him. I disagree with that, but it is a worrying possibility.

Even if you got another Siloviki Russian nationalist type, they would almost certainly be better than Putin. Because they would not be in the position that they cannot politically survive withdrawal as Putin is in. The man is forced to constantly double down because of the reputational damage of having been responsible for this.

Leon

Phil said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

It is absolutely terrible.

& there seems no way of stopping it in the short term, since Putin is willing to throw as many of Russia’s people into the meatgrinder of the war as he can lay his hands on.

They’ve even sent a neuroseurgeon to the front lines, if this article is to be believed: https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/10/31/russias-bashkortostan-the-only-childrens-neurosurgeon-in-city-of-sterlitamak-drafted-under-partial-mobilisation-en-news

Absolute madness; just throwing away the lives of the nation for no good end whatsoever.

At some point - surely - the Russian people will turn against the war. Indeed I saw a poll on Twitter which showed a pretty dramatic change in Russian sentiment (in favour of peace) in the last weeks

I’ll try and find it - and see if it is reliable - when I’m not having a beer by a black sand beach in Iceland

JosiasJessop

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

I'm unsure the attacker vs defender figures work with this sort of modern warfare. The line between defender and attacker becomes blurred when you have precision munitions able to strike tens of kilometres behind the front lines. It becomes a case of who is best at organising long-distance artillery and surveillance to allow targetting.

For instance, that 1,000 figure for Russian casualties the other day is alleged to be because a concentration of troops got hit behind the lines.

So yes, if you have well-defiladed troops, then attackers should suffer more casualties. But not all of this war is like that.

TimS

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

The evidence suggests Ukraine are losing much less than that. Still very large numbers but significantly fewer than Russia. Their attacks have in most cases (with the exception of the current Kherson campaign) been rapid routs into vacated territory whereas Russia has been mounting long bloody frontal attacks in places like Bakhmut. Rotation, equipment, healthcare and fighting conditions also a little better for Ukrainian forces.

Looking at verified equipment losses Russia seems to be running at least 3x Ukraine which suggests something similar for troops too. But added on to that is the almost impossible to compute loss of civilians, given many will have been in places like Mariupol where there is little or no data available.

TOPPING

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

On another note can you please liveblog your next Hákarl meal. You can blur out your face if necessary.

Big_G_NorthWales

felix said:

FPT:

1:31PM

CarlottaVance said:

Who was telling porkies?

Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has told the Commons there is no evidence of bullying or undue influence being placed on MPs during the vote on fracking

He says an investigation also found that no MP was pushed

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1587408556181053440

Pretty obvious who was the " liar liar pants on fire " - Bryant has form when it comes to knickers.

Looks like Bryant needs to make a public apology

MarqueeMark

WillG said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

For all the talk of feminists, those most likely to die at the hands of their own government are poor young men.

Not on the Ukrainian side. There are plenty of women frontline in the Ukrainian forces.

And too many are paying the ultimate price.

Just so Putin can be remembered as the man who brought together a greater Russia. Or more likely, caused it to descend into an economic downward spiral and the collapse of the Russian Federation into constituent parts. Which then spend decades fighting each other as the world looks on, going "Meh. Serves them right...."

Phil

WillG said:

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

Usually there isn't the technological gap between the attackers and defenders here. And now many Russians are untrained conscripts. I suspect the death numbers are roughly even between Russia and Ukraine.

There’s a massive gap between the technological war fighting capability of the average recent Russian conscript & the Ukranians on the front lines. Both in training and equipment.

These people are just being sent into the meatgrinder to defend Putin’s pride.

TimS

Scott_xP said:

UK house prices have fallen for the first time in over a year

Expect further declines as rising mortgage costs squeeze potential buyers, writes @John_Stepek https://trib.al/JBrcT2t

I'd expect quite precipitous falls in areas with large second home numbers, like Cornwall or Pembrokeshire. You only buy a second home when you have money to spare and finance is cheap. Things probably holding up better, as usual, in the leafier metro suburbs.

glw

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

Back in early March I noted that Russia was losing more people per week than the worst year of the Soviet-Afghan War. IIRC Russia passed the total of that war about 7 or 8 weeks in. It is now heading towards three times the total. Militarily this war has been a complete catastrophe for Russia.

Dura_Ace

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

The whole mess is horrific and so utterly unnecessary. But the solution lies in one person's hands: only Putin can stop this bloodshed. No-one else.

That’s not quite true. A well placed general in Moscow could do us all a favour, with an open window….

Well, that's the same thing, isn't it? Putin stopping the bloodshed by accidentally dying. Which is not a totally implausible solution.

But as I daresay Dura_Ace would add, there's no guarantee that whomever replaces Putin is any better than him. I disagree with that, but it is a worrying possibility.

If anybody says they know what would happen after the fall of Putin they are lying. The Familiya might try to put Dimon back in but that may not hold and he would be under a lot of pressure from the right to succeed at the SMO where VVP failed.

Worst case, you get nuclear Yugoslavia that is not constrained within the borders of the Russian Federation and takes 20 years to resolve itself into a stable geopolitical configuration.

Don't believe the Ukrainian trolls who tell you that anything other than VVP will be an improvement.

TimS

WillG said:

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

The whole mess is horrific and so utterly unnecessary. But the solution lies in one person's hands: only Putin can stop this bloodshed. No-one else.

That’s not quite true. A well placed general in Moscow could do us all a favour, with an open window….

Well, that's the same thing, isn't it? Putin stopping the bloodshed by accidentally dying. Which is not a totally implausible solution.

But as I daresay Dura_Ace would add, there's no guarantee that whomever replaces Putin is any better than him. I disagree with that, but it is a worrying possibility.

Even if you got another Siloviki Russian nationalist type, they would almost certainly be better than Putin. Because they would not be in the position that they cannot politically survive withdrawal as Putin is in. The man is forced to constantly double down because of the reputational damage of having been responsible for this.

The danger would be if a deluded militarist gets in after Putin, someone who believes they could have trodden Ukraine into the mud if only they'd done "proper war" instead of pussyfooting around.

Leon

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

On another note can you please liveblog your next Hákarl meal. You can blur out your face if necessary.

I’ll try. I’m also hoping to sample the ram’s testicles pickled in whale fat. And some others

In the meantime all I can offer is the magnificent black sand beaches of Vik

mwadams

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

While I don't want to underestimate UKR casualties, I think that those multipliers are not going to be right.

UKR is fighting in a completely different way from a traditional "attacker assaulting highly dug-in positions occupied by the defenders".

It's more like they are "mostly defending" while cutting off supply to the Russians, then locally overwhelming Russian positions and forcing the bulk of the force to surrender or flee.

The particularly large Russian losses right now seem to stem from their lack of counter-battery fire and susceptibility to artillery, plus the losses they are taking *as the attacker* around Bakhmut (sp?).

DecrepiterJohnL

Big_G_NorthWales said:

felix said:

FPT:

1:31PM

CarlottaVance said:

Who was telling porkies?

Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has told the Commons there is no evidence of bullying or undue influence being placed on MPs during the vote on fracking

He says an investigation also found that no MP was pushed

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1587408556181053440

Pretty obvious who was the " liar liar pants on fire " - Bryant has form when it comes to knickers.

Looks like Bryant needs to make a public apology

Not just Bryant if this contemporary report is any guide. Tories too, and we might need to wait for Liz Truss's memoirs to see if she really did vote while persuading the Chief Whip to un-resign.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63322533

JosiasJessop

Dura_Ace said:

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

The whole mess is horrific and so utterly unnecessary. But the solution lies in one person's hands: only Putin can stop this bloodshed. No-one else.

That’s not quite true. A well placed general in Moscow could do us all a favour, with an open window….

Well, that's the same thing, isn't it? Putin stopping the bloodshed by accidentally dying. Which is not a totally implausible solution.

But as I daresay Dura_Ace would add, there's no guarantee that whomever replaces Putin is any better than him. I disagree with that, but it is a worrying possibility.

If anybody says they know what would happen after the fall of Putin they are lying. The Familiya might try to put Dimon back in but that may not hold and he would be under a lot of pressure from the right to succeed at the SMO where VVP failed.

Worst case, you get nuclear Yugoslavia that is not constrained within the borders of the Russian Federation and takes 20 years to resolve itself into a stable geopolitical configuration.

Don't believe the Ukrainian trolls who tell you that anything other than VVP will be an improvement.

I don't 'believe' them. But any replacement for Putin would have to deal with the realities of the situation that faces Russia. And that situation is fairly dire. It may well be easier for them to take a step back, rather than double down.

I also find it interesting that you refer to 'Ukrainian trolls', but I cannot recall you talking about 'Russian trolls' ...

Andy_JS

23% is amazingly high given the current situation.

Peter_the_Punter

TimS said:

Scott_xP said:

UK house prices have fallen for the first time in over a year

Expect further declines as rising mortgage costs squeeze potential buyers, writes @John_Stepek https://trib.al/JBrcT2t

I'd expect quite precipitous falls in areas with large second home numbers, like Cornwall or Pembrokeshire. You only buy a second home when you have money to spare and finance is cheap. Things probably holding up better, as usual, in the leafier metro suburbs.

We looked at buying in Pembrokeshire this year but thought the prices absurdly high. I still get postings from the Estate Agents and I don't notice much of a decline, but I am sure it will come.

TOPPING

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

On another note can you please liveblog your next Hákarl meal. You can blur out your face if necessary.

I’ll try. I’m also hoping to sample the ram’s testicles pickled in whale fat. And some others

In the meantime all I can offer is the magnificent black sand beaches of Vik

Did you knapp those yourself?

TOPPING

glw said:

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

Back in early March I noted that Russia was losing more people per week than the worst year of the Soviet-Afghan War. IIRC Russia passed the total of that war about 7 or 8 weeks in. It is now heading towards three times the total. Militarily this war has been a complete catastrophe for Russia.

How does anyone know how many soldiers have died on either side?

Luckyguy1983

Youtube advertising (presumably for the Labour Party, I didn't spot it) showed me a video of Sunak boasting about spending less money in 'deprived urban areas'.

It actually made me feel a bit sympathetic toward him, because I sort of realised that he was adopting this behaviour (see also his 'I don't know any working class people' interview), I think, in order to fit in. Without wishing to patronise him, it must have been very difficult to get on at school - I don't suppose they were terribly racist, but more due to his modest background. My feeling is that fitting in with an elite grouping is very important to Sunak, for understandable reasons, and this makes me sympathise with him - though I don't approve of a lot of his political choices.

CarlottaVance

Another Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of grain ships left Odesa this morning, breaking through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine for a second day in a row.

Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.

Erdogan has called Putin’s bluff.

🇹🇷🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1587428433990225922

numbertwelve

Actually I think a 1-in-5 chance (appreciate this is just over that) is probably about right.

I don’t think it’s likely the Tories win the next election. But there is a conceivable route to scraping in by the skin of their teeth (either a small majority or minority government). It probably requires the economic situation and energy crisis to stabilise, and Labour to run a poor campaign which raises doubts. But it is plausible.

glw

TOPPING said:

How does anyone know how many soldiers have died on either side?

Battlefield surveys, then scaling those, also looking at logistics, communications, transport, medical facilities, all those sort of things. It's an estimate but it should be in the right ballpark. It's bread and butter work for the intelligence agencies.

TOPPING

glw said:

TOPPING said:

How does anyone know how many soldiers have died on either side?

Battlefield surveys, then scaling those, also looking at logistics, communications, transport, medical facilities, all those sort of things. It's an estimate but it should be in the right ballpark. It's bread and butter work for the intelligence agencies.

So what's your big figure for both Ukraine and Russia?

IanB2

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

Stalingrad works out at somewhere around 12,000 daily casualties with the deaths being in the range 4-5,000 daily.

Pulpstar

Peter_the_Punter said:

TimS said:

Scott_xP said:

UK house prices have fallen for the first time in over a year

Expect further declines as rising mortgage costs squeeze potential buyers, writes @John_Stepek https://trib.al/JBrcT2t

I'd expect quite precipitous falls in areas with large second home numbers, like Cornwall or Pembrokeshire. You only buy a second home when you have money to spare and finance is cheap. Things probably holding up better, as usual, in the leafier metro suburbs.

We looked at buying in Pembrokeshire this year but thought the prices absurdly high. I still get postings from the Estate Agents and I don't notice much of a decline, but I am sure it will come.

https://trib.al/JBrcT2t

Given that most of us tend to borrow up to our limit when we buy a home

Jeesh I hope not, the amount I was offered was ludicrous.

TimS

CarlottaVance said:

Another Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of grain ships left Odesa this morning, breaking through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine for a second day in a row.

Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.

Erdogan has called Putin’s bluff.

🇹🇷🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1587428433990225922

The contrast between Turkey's strategic geopolitical swagger - the very definition of punching above one's weight - and its feeble domestic economic performance is staggering.

JosiasJessop

This is perhaps the best indication that Ukraine won't be seeing an attack from Belarus for a few months:

"Belarus continues to transfer its military equipment to the Russian troops. Here an echelon of 20 BMP-2s left for Luhansk.

Thus, over the past month, the Belarussian government has transferred to the needs of Russia:

- at least 94 T-72A tanks
- 36-44 Urals
- 20 BMP-2"

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1587428073129082881

It also indicates how short of kit Russia may be getting. It must be fairly embarrassing for Putin to go begging to 'lesser' nations for such help.

TOPPING

CarlottaVance said:

Another Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of grain ships left Odesa this morning, breaking through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine for a second day in a row.

Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.

Erdogan has called Putin’s bluff.

🇹🇷🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1587428433990225922

Didn't WatO say that Russia had said that grain shipments would resume?

Pulpstar

TOPPING said:

glw said:

TOPPING said:

How does anyone know how many soldiers have died on either side?

Battlefield surveys, then scaling those, also looking at logistics, communications, transport, medical facilities, all those sort of things. It's an estimate but it should be in the right ballpark. It's bread and butter work for the intelligence agencies.

So what's your big figure for both Ukraine and Russia?

That's a good point, why are the Ukranian casualty estimates never given out ?

JosiasJessop

TimS said:

CarlottaVance said:

Another Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of grain ships left Odesa this morning, breaking through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine for a second day in a row.

Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.

Erdogan has called Putin’s bluff.

🇹🇷🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1587428433990225922

The contrast between Turkey's strategic geopolitical swagger - the very definition of punching above one's weight - and its feeble domestic economic performance is staggering.

Yeah, they didn't listen to my f-i-l...

kjh

Peter_the_Punter said:

TimS said:

Scott_xP said:

UK house prices have fallen for the first time in over a year

Expect further declines as rising mortgage costs squeeze potential buyers, writes @John_Stepek https://trib.al/JBrcT2t

I'd expect quite precipitous falls in areas with large second home numbers, like Cornwall or Pembrokeshire. You only buy a second home when you have money to spare and finance is cheap. Things probably holding up better, as usual, in the leafier metro suburbs.

We looked at buying in Pembrokeshire this year but thought the prices absurdly high. I still get postings from the Estate Agents and I don't notice much of a decline, but I am sure it will come.

We have a house in Southwold which is basically all 2nd homes. It is my wife's escape from me. I asked her, having read the above post, because I know stuff normally sells the instant it hits the estate agent and normally at a premium. She says only the perfect stuff is getting snapped up now.

bigjohnowls

SKS behind even on TSE's favourite DRAG measure

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
19h
Combined Net Approval Ratings (30 October):

Rishi Sunak: +10% (+8)
Keir Starmer: +8% (-5)
Jeremy Hunt: +6% (+13)

CarlottaVance

Suella Braverman is successfully diverting folks from the economic and financial disaster engulfing families, hospitals, schools etc.. which is almost always the purpose of culture war. Her words about refugees were appalling, dangerous and inaccurate, but clever and deliberate.

https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1587369070344667139

glw

TOPPING said:

glw said:

TOPPING said:

How does anyone know how many soldiers have died on either side?

Battlefield surveys, then scaling those, also looking at logistics, communications, transport, medical facilities, all those sort of things. It's an estimate but it should be in the right ballpark. It's bread and butter work for the intelligence agencies.

So what's your big figure for both Ukraine and Russia?

No idea on Ukraine, they have been opaque about what their losses are, but for Russia the UK MOD and Ukraine estimates were reasonably close, and CIA estimates a fair bit lower. So somewhere in the 50-70 thousand dead seems plausible. The divergence seems to be down to where the dead or casualty line is drawn.

bigjohnowls

SKS falls further behind on best PM measure

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
20h
Sunak leads Starmer by 4%.

At this moment, which of the following do British voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (30 Oct.)

Rishi Sunak 41% (+2)
Keir Starmer 37% (-1)

Changes +/- 25-26 Oct.

DecrepiterJohnL

OT no eggs in this week's supermarket sweep. Are people panic-buying eggs or did the delivery lorry get a flat?

CarlottaVance

R4 WATO asking Bryant about Hoyle’s statement - does not resile from his claims. Lots of waffle….

JosiasJessop

TOPPING said:

CarlottaVance said:

Another Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of grain ships left Odesa this morning, breaking through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine for a second day in a row.

Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.

Erdogan has called Putin’s bluff.

🇹🇷🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1587428433990225922

Didn't WatO say that Russia had said that grain shipments would resume?

Apparently many of the countries relying on that grain are amongst the few abstaining from criticising him too strongly. They might have had some strong words in Putin's ear.

Also, the question is what Russia can do about it. Allegedly they attacked a tug yesterday, but such attacks are wildly counterproductive and risks escalating in non-helpful ways he cannot necessarily control.

Big_G_NorthWales

bigjohnowls said:

SKS behind even on TSE's favourite DRAG measure

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
19h
Combined Net Approval Ratings (30 October):

Rishi Sunak: +10% (+8)
Keir Starmer: +8% (-5)
Jeremy Hunt: +6% (+13)

Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here

ThePoliticalParty

Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?

bigjohnowls

LAB lead cut to 23% in latest R&W still landslide material yet SKS behind Sunak

DRAG

TheValiant

Jonathan said:

In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.

I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.

So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.

My current hunch.

50% Sunak
45% Starmer
5% Another Tory

If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.

As an aside, and a general question to PB at large, when do you think Sunak will go to the country?

The three most likely dates are:
May 2024 - Usual spring election with less than 12 months to go. Disadvantage is this is only 18 months away now, and if Sunak loses, whilst it won't be Truss levels of tenure, he'll be firmly down there with the likes of Douglas-Home in the length he's served. It's unlikely he'll do a Wilson and be able to come back.

October 2024 - Hanging on for five more months without a 'to the death' election like Major did. Bit longer to turn things around and not too late in the year that the dark nights have completely set in.

January 2025 - If I'm going to lose, I'm going to hang on to the bitter end election. I think if he does this, he'll lose from people voting against him for the sheer obvious desperation he'll be showing.

I think October 2024 is most likely, followed by May 24 then January 25.

StuartDickson

Did Suella Braverman’s father “invade” Kenya when he emigrated there from India?

Did her mother “invade” Mauritius when she moved there?

Did both her parents “invade” the UK when they emigrated here?

And did Braverman herself “invade” France when she lived there for 2 years?

https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1587210277900226561?s=46&t=Ylgqqlho9rXQMgaCzRYIOQ

JosiasJessop

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

glw said:

TOPPING said:

How does anyone know how many soldiers have died on either side?

Battlefield surveys, then scaling those, also looking at logistics, communications, transport, medical facilities, all those sort of things. It's an estimate but it should be in the right ballpark. It's bread and butter work for the intelligence agencies.

So what's your big figure for both Ukraine and Russia?

That's a good point, why are the Ukranian casualty estimates never given out ?

Figures are all over the place:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Also note that 'Russian' casualties can vary wildly by what is included. Do you include just Russian troops, or the DPM/LPM troops? How about the foreign fighters on both sides? Wagner Group?

Luckyguy1983

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT no eggs in this week's supermarket sweep. Are people panic-buying eggs or did the delivery lorry get a flat?

Seen no eggsamples of this phenomenon here in bracing Scotland.

Nigel_Foremain

bigjohnowls said:

SKS falls further behind on best PM measure

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
20h
Sunak leads Starmer by 4%.

At this moment, which of the following do British voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (30 Oct.)

Rishi Sunak 41% (+2)
Keir Starmer 37% (-1)

Changes +/- 25-26 Oct.

From IPSOS July 2019:

When asked ‘who would make the most capable Prime Minister’, Boris Johnson leads Jeremy Corbyn by 52% to 27%

Corbyn: Thrashed by a clown.

Jeremy Corbyn fan, please explain?

williamglenn

StuartDickson said:

Did Suella Braverman’s father “invade” Kenya when he emigrated there from India?

Did her mother “invade” Mauritius when she moved there?

Did both her parents “invade” the UK when they emigrated here?

And did Braverman herself “invade” France when she lived there for 2 years?

https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1587210277900226561

Did any of them travel in a convoy of thousands without documentation?

148grss

Jonathan said:

In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.

I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.

So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.

My current hunch.

50% Sunak
45% Starmer
5% Another Tory

If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.

One of the things I feel make Starmer more likely as PM versus Sunak is in the event of a hung parliament, Starmer is the only viable PM. So Sunak needs to hold onto his majority, not just keep Cons as the largest party. I say this because it seems clear that a) Tories losing their majority would be seen as a clear statement the public has lost trust in them (similar to Gordon Brown losing the majority in 2010) and b) no other party would be willing to prop up this Conservative government (I would include the DUP in that after their brush with May and Johnson). So whilst it may not be a 70+% chance Lab makes a majority, I think it is clearly a 70+% chance that the Tories lose theirs, and what happens after will be a Starmer premiership.

Nigelb

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

Dulce et decorum est...

Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233

148grss

TheValiant said:

Jonathan said:

In my opinion Sunak has a far greater chance than 23%. Whilst it is true that the Tories have been uniquely bad, I think that low figure stems from exaggerated mid-term polls.

I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.

So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.

My current hunch.

50% Sunak
45% Starmer
5% Another Tory

If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.

As an aside, and a general question to PB at large, when do you think Sunak will go to the country?

The three most likely dates are:
May 2024 - Usual spring election with less than 12 months to go. Disadvantage is this is only 18 months away now, and if Sunak loses, whilst it won't be Truss levels of tenure, he'll be firmly down there with the likes of Douglas-Home in the length he's served. It's unlikely he'll do a Wilson and be able to come back.

October 2024 - Hanging on for five more months without a 'to the death' election like Major did. Bit longer to turn things around and not too late in the year that the dark nights have completely set in.

January 2025 - If I'm going to lose, I'm going to hang on to the bitter end election. I think if he does this, he'll lose from people voting against him for the sheer obvious desperation he'll be showing.

I think October 2024 is most likely, followed by May 24 then January 25.

I think this is heavily reliant on party discipline which still seems... lacking. If the backbenchers get in line, then I can see him holding out until October 2024 - if they kick off again (if Braverman is too much of an Albatross, or the tax increases seem to egregious to them) then I can only imagine it will need to come sooner.

Anabobazina

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS behind even on TSE's favourite DRAG measure

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
19h
Combined Net Approval Ratings (30 October):

Rishi Sunak: +10% (+8)
Keir Starmer: +8% (-5)
Jeremy Hunt: +6% (+13)

Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here

Isn't this yesterday's poll?

Nigel_Foremain

bigjohnowls said:

LAB lead cut to 23% in latest R&W still landslide material yet SKS behind Sunak

DRAG

I had no idea that SKS liked to put on women's clothes. Well good on him I say.

CarlottaVance

Matt Hancock having the whip removed faster than Chris Pincher did really does say something.

https://twitter.com/AmandaCC92/status/1587400145003487232

malcolmg

FPT
malcolmg said:

» show previous quotes
Poor old Adolf Foreskin, ranting and raving his bigotry against Scots. What a sadsack.
You will do yourself an injury Adolf , fat gammony goosesteppers should be more careful.

I have Scots in my family dickhead. I do not have bigotry toward any person of Scottish heritage, I leave bigotry to sad thickos such as yourself and @StuartDickson and your small minded and unconcealed Anglophobia. You are a silly stupid, angry little man that is so intensely moronic that you are still a bumlicking follower of a man so vile that he was described by his own QC as "a bully and a sex pest". And you think this is someone worthy of following? Only someone with fascist tendencies or intense immorality or stupidity could want to follow someone like that. Fortunately for Salmond there are people like yourself who have all three

Now go back to ranting about how unfair it is that you got no education and watch out for your wife when she comes back from the bingo and screams at you for being such a sad loser.

Oh Dear , poor old Adolf Foreskin must have had his sweets stolen by a Scot when he was young. The bigot's bigot rides again.
An uncouth uneducated oaf given his use of words, obviously of low intelligence and poorly educated to make such vile accusations, the poor addled bozo is to be pitied.

JosiasJessop

CarlottaVance said:

Matt Hancock having the whip removed faster than Chris Pincher did really does say something.

https://twitter.com/AmandaCC92/status/1587400145003487232

Yes; Sunak is marginally better at politics than Boris was.

Only marginally, mind.

Leon

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

Dulce et decorum est...

Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233

That’s classic Yukio Mishima-style fucked-up Fascism

MarqueeMark

glw said:

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

Back in early March I noted that Russia was losing more people per week than the worst year of the Soviet-Afghan War. IIRC Russia passed the total of that war about 7 or 8 weeks in. It is now heading towards three times the total. Militarily this war has been a complete catastrophe for Russia.

The Black Sea Fleet has largely been confined to dock. The loss of one and perhaps two flagships has meant it has had no capacity to support an amphibious landing on Odessa which seems to have been abandoned, thanks to the anti-ship missiles Ukraine had (as now topped up). Ukraine will keep a Black Sea presence - very much not what was intended.

The Russian air force had no cover along the northern Black Sea coast because of the absence of the fleet. That has caused control of the skies to be largely missing in the southern and eastern areas. The supply of ubiquitous manpads has taken out a significant number of fixed wing aircraft when they do appear. Even worse, the helicopters, especially the K-52 Alligator, have played limited roles in supporting/moving ground troops - and when they have, at a high cost. Their battlefield performances have been terrible adverts for those who might have been considering purchasing them.

The real catastrophe though has been the Army. NATO must have looked on in bewilderment that this was the Army they had been fearing in Europe for decades. Their blitzkrieg on Kyiv was a fiasco of unclear aims, woeful intelligence and strategy based on them just rolling up to an enemy that would melt away like mist. Many of the troops didn't even know they were going for something more than an exercise. Other elite units raced ahead for battle honours - only to then be destroyed as functioning regiments.

When they regrouped and got their shit together for artillery barrage --> destroy everything in front of them - -> advance and repeat, it worked in Donbas. For a while. But once they lost the advantage of range against HIMARS (a piece of quite aged kit, especially when deprived by the US of its longer range shells) their only successful method of waging war fell apart. Their main battle tanks were no match for cheap and prolific anti-tank weapons in theatre. The rest of their kit fared worse, with things such as tyres and fuel proving a logistics bridge too far. Massive ammunition dumps moved by trains were the way Russia had always done it - but not next time, you have to think, as one after another they got picked off from 50 miles away with pinpoint precision.

Russia might still try a new surprise offensive out of Belarus. But between Belarus and Ukraine is the largest marshland in Europe. The few routes through are heavily mined/obstructed and have artillery pinpointing the limited attack points. Unless Russia can find a very different way of fighting a war against Ukraine, it is hard to see how that ends in anything other than another rout - followed by the likely overthrow of Lukashenko by the true winner of the presidential election. That means another candidate for NATO membership snug against the Russian border, adding to the strategic disaster of Sweden and Finland joining, bringing nukes within 50 miles of St. Petersburg. Forget ICBMs - you could now almost drive a nuke there in a Transit van.

Nigel_Foremain

malcolmg said:

FPT
malcolmg said:

» show previous quotes
Poor old Adolf Foreskin, ranting and raving his bigotry against Scots. What a sadsack.
You will do yourself an injury Adolf , fat gammony goosesteppers should be more careful.

I have Scots in my family dickhead. I do not have bigotry toward any person of Scottish heritage, I leave bigotry to sad thickos such as yourself and @StuartDickson and your small minded and unconcealed Anglophobia. You are a silly stupid, angry little man that is so intensely moronic that you are still a bumlicking follower of a man so vile that he was described by his own QC as "a bully and a sex pest". And you think this is someone worthy of following? Only someone with fascist tendencies or intense immorality or stupidity could want to follow someone like that. Fortunately for Salmond there are people like yourself who have all three

Now go back to ranting about how unfair it is that you got no education and watch out for your wife when she comes back from the bingo and screams at you for being such a sad loser.

Oh Dear , poor old Adolf Foreskin must have had his sweets stolen by a Scot when he was young. The bigot's bigot rides again.
An uncouth uneducated oaf given his use of words, obviously of low intelligence and poorly educated to make such vile accusations, the poor addled bozo is to be pitied.

Lol. That took a while for old amoeba-brain to respond!

Best example of psychological projection I have ever seen though. Bravo!

I guess the damp in the bungalow is getting to you, or did you have to lie low for a while to escape your wife's earbashing, or did it take you while to get back online at the library?

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

Another Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of grain ships left Odesa this morning, breaking through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine for a second day in a row.

Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.

Erdogan has called Putin’s bluff.

🇹🇷🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1587428433990225922

They are still repairing their ships

Alistair

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

Battle of the Bulge was a month long and Us took about 20k dead + fuckloads more casualties. Imagine Germany would have to have been something similar. Operation Market Garden was 10 days and thousands dead.

WW2 Casualty and death figures are huge. We are talking millions of dead per side for the Germans and Russians. The average monthly death toll on the Eastern Front was way, way higher than 45k a month.

JosiasJessop

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Another Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of grain ships left Odesa this morning, breaking through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine for a second day in a row.

Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.

Erdogan has called Putin’s bluff.

🇹🇷🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1587428433990225922

They are still repairing their ships

Or preparing them to become submarines?

malcolmg

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.

Nigelb

i

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Dulce et decorum est...

Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233

That’s classic Yukio Mishima-style fucked-up Fascism

Well it's certainly not Wilfred Owen.

Daveyboy1961

ThePoliticalParty said:

Will Bryant withdraw, apologise and face sanction now his allegations have been completely demolished?

probably not. He believes what he sees with his own eyes, rather than a bunch of self serving tories pulling the wool over Speaker Hoyle's eyes, (which let's face it, is very easy to do).

MarqueeMark

Luckyguy1983 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT no eggs in this week's supermarket sweep. Are people panic-buying eggs or did the delivery lorry get a flat?

Seen no eggsamples of this phenomenon here in bracing Scotland.

I get my eggs off my neighbour, that Flavia from Strictly. Her free-range hens are still laying (some great double yolkers amongst them!) so no need to get the supermarket's second rate stuff.

Nigel_Foremain

malcolmg said:

Leon said:

AlistairM said:

FPT

moonshine said:

Ukraine claimed Russian troops losses…

During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.

Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.

Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.

Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.

I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.

What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!

We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated

And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing

Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.

The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.

Northern_Al

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

SKS behind even on TSE's favourite DRAG measure

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
19h
Combined Net Approval Ratings (30 October):

Rishi Sunak: +10% (+8)
Keir Starmer: +8% (-5)
Jeremy Hunt: +6% (+13)

Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here

Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?

mwadams

MarqueeMark said:

glw said:

Leon said:

Just crunching the numbers of the Uke war

If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily

1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War

This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?

Back in early March I noted that Russia was losing more people per week than the worst year of the Soviet-Afghan War. IIRC Russia passed the total of that war about 7 or 8 weeks in. It is now heading towards three times the total. Militarily this war has been a complete catastrophe for Russia.

The Black Sea Fleet has largely been confined to dock. The loss of one and perhaps two flagships has meant it has had no capacity to support an amphibious landing on Odessa which seems to have been abandoned, thanks to the anti-ship missiles Ukraine had (as now topped up). Ukraine will keep a Black Sea presence - very much not what was intended.

The Russian air force had no cover along the northern Black Sea coast because of the absence of the fleet. That has caused control of the skies to be largely missing in the southern and eastern areas. The supply of ubiquitous manpads has taken out a significant number of fixed wing aircraft when they do appear. Even worse, the helicopters, especially the K-52 Alligator, have played limited roles in supporting/moving ground troops - and when they have, at a high cost. Their battlefield performances have been terrible adverts for those who might have been considering purchasing them.

The real catastrophe though has been the Army. NATO must have looked on in bewilderment that this was the Army they had been fearing in Europe for decades. Their blitzkrieg on Kyiv was a fiasco of unclear aims, woeful intelligence and strategy based on them just rolling up to an enemy that would melt away like mist. Many of the troops didn't even know they were going for something more than an exercise. Other elite units raced ahead for battle honours - only to then be destroyed as functioning regiments.

When they regrouped and got their shit together for artillery barrage --> destroy everything in front of them - -> advance and repeat, it worked in Donbas. For a while. But once they lost the advantage of range against HIMARS (a piece of quite aged kit, especially when deprived by the US of its longer range shells) their only successful method of waging war fell apart. Their main battle tanks were no match for cheap and prolific anti-tank weapons in theatre. The rest of their kit fared worse, with things such as tyres and fuel proving a logistics bridge too far. Massive ammunition dumps moved by trains were the way Russia had always done it - but not next time, you have to think, as one after another they got picked off from 50 miles away with pinpoint precision.

Russia might still try a new surprise offensive out of Belarus. But between Belarus and Ukraine is the largest marshland in Europe. The few routes through are heavily mined/obstructed and have artillery pinpointing the limited attack points. Unless Russia can find a very different way of fighting a war against Ukraine, it is hard to see how that ends in anything other than another rout - followed by the likely overthrow of Lukashenko by the true winner of the presidential election. That means another candidate for NATO membership snug against the Russian border, adding to the strategic disaster of Sweden and Finland joining, bringing nukes within 50 miles of St. Petersburg. Forget ICBMs - you could now almost drive a nuke there in a Transit van.

Don't forget the strategic end of the Russian Energy business.

CarlottaVance

JosiasJessop said:

CarlottaVance said:

Matt Hancock having the whip removed faster than Chris Pincher did really does say something.

https://twitter.com/AmandaCC92/status/1587400145003487232

Yes; Sunak is marginally better at politics than Boris was.

Only marginally, mind.

I think people may be underestimating Sunak….admittedly his immediate predecessors represent a very low base, but I think he’s cannier than people give him credit for.