Punters give Sunak a 23% chance of winning the general election – politicalbetting.com
Punters give Sunak a 23% chance of winning the general election – politicalbetting.com
Above is the Smarkets betting market on who will be the prime minister after the next general election. As can be seen punters are still very strongly with Starmer while Sunak is down as a 23% chance.
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It’ll be interesting to see what happens to polling on issues given the current Braverman furore. Will immigration go up the list of concerns because of the blanket coverage? If not then it suggests the economy will continue to dominate for a while.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael says Hancock would "rather spend his time gargling pig semen in the jungle than spend another minute on the backbenches"
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1587421692191703048
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ul Fur Nr. 3
The worldwide beer revolution is a great thing
I would assume that Sunak has an 7/10 chance of fighting the next election as Tory leader. And that with an 80 seat majority to defend, past experience says that he is 7/10 to end up the largest party after the election.
So I reckon he is about 50:50 to be PM after the next election. The big news for me from the past 12 months is that Labour can win. I put it no stronger than that.
My current hunch.
50% Sunak
45% Starmer
5% Another Tory
If the polls haven't closed with 12 months to go that's a whole different story.
1:31PM
CarlottaVance said:
Who was telling porkies?
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has told the Commons there is no evidence of bullying or undue influence being placed on MPs during the vote on fracking
He says an investigation also found that no MP was pushed
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1587408556181053440
Pretty obvious who was the " liar liar pants on fire " - Bryant has form when it comes to knickers.
But as I daresay Dura_Ace would add, there's no guarantee that whomever replaces Putin is any better than him. I disagree with that, but it is a worrying possibility.
If 500 Russians are dying every day, then at least as many Ukes are dying. Indeed normally you expect the attacker to lose 2-3 times as many. So 1000 Ukes could be dying daily
1500 a day = 45,000 dead soldiers every MONTH (plus civilians). For comparison the USA lost 60,000 in the entire Vietnam War
This is very much war we haven’t witnessed in Europe since WW2. Indeed I wonder if there were many months in the European theatre of WW2 when 45,000 soldiers died every month. Probably on the Eastern Front at its most intense? Stalingrad? Kursk? The Battle for Berlin?
& there seems no way of stopping it in the short term, since Putin is willing to throw as many of Russia’s people into the meatgrinder of the war as he can lay his hands on.
They’ve even sent a neuroseurgeon to the front lines, if this article is to be believed: https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/10/31/russias-bashkortostan-the-only-childrens-neurosurgeon-in-city-of-sterlitamak-drafted-under-partial-mobilisation-en-news
Absolute madness; just throwing away the lives of the nation for no good end whatsoever.
Expect further declines as rising mortgage costs squeeze potential buyers, writes @John_Stepek https://trib.al/JBrcT2t
Having been through countless disappointments (1992 and all that), noting that Labour have not won from such a weak position in my lifetime and that mid term polls are pretty much always wrong, my hunch is still that it will be lot closer than the headlines suggest.
I’ll try and find it - and see if it is reliable - when I’m not having a beer by a black sand beach in Iceland
For instance, that 1,000 figure for Russian casualties the other day is alleged to be because a concentration of troops got hit behind the lines.
So yes, if you have well-defiladed troops, then attackers should suffer more casualties. But not all of this war is like that.
Looking at verified equipment losses Russia seems to be running at least 3x Ukraine which suggests something similar for troops too. But added on to that is the almost impossible to compute loss of civilians, given many will have been in places like Mariupol where there is little or no data available.
And too many are paying the ultimate price.
Just so Putin can be remembered as the man who brought together a greater Russia. Or more likely, caused it to descend into an economic downward spiral and the collapse of the Russian Federation into constituent parts. Which then spend decades fighting each other as the world looks on, going "Meh. Serves them right...."
These people are just being sent into the meatgrinder to defend Putin’s pride.
Worst case, you get nuclear Yugoslavia that is not constrained within the borders of the Russian Federation and takes 20 years to resolve itself into a stable geopolitical configuration.
Don't believe the Ukrainian trolls who tell you that anything other than VVP will be an improvement.
In the meantime all I can offer is the magnificent black sand beaches of Vik
UKR is fighting in a completely different way from a traditional "attacker assaulting highly dug-in positions occupied by the defenders".
It's more like they are "mostly defending" while cutting off supply to the Russians, then locally overwhelming Russian positions and forcing the bulk of the force to surrender or flee.
The particularly large Russian losses right now seem to stem from their lack of counter-battery fire and susceptibility to artillery, plus the losses they are taking *as the attacker* around Bakhmut (sp?).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63322533
I also find it interesting that you refer to 'Ukrainian trolls', but I cannot recall you talking about 'Russian trolls' ...
It actually made me feel a bit sympathetic toward him, because I sort of realised that he was adopting this behaviour (see also his 'I don't know any working class people' interview), I think, in order to fit in. Without wishing to patronise him, it must have been very difficult to get on at school - I don't suppose they were terribly racist, but more due to his modest background. My feeling is that fitting in with an elite grouping is very important to Sunak, for understandable reasons, and this makes me sympathise with him - though I don't approve of a lot of his political choices.
Again, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nowhere to be seen.
Erdogan has called Putin’s bluff.
🇹🇷🇺🇦
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1587428433990225922
I don’t think it’s likely the Tories win the next election. But there is a conceivable route to scraping in by the skin of their teeth (either a small majority or minority government). It probably requires the economic situation and energy crisis to stabilise, and Labour to run a poor campaign which raises doubts. But it is plausible.
Given that most of us tend to borrow up to our limit when we buy a home
Jeesh I hope not, the amount I was offered was ludicrous.
"Belarus continues to transfer its military equipment to the Russian troops. Here an echelon of 20 BMP-2s left for Luhansk.
Thus, over the past month, the Belarussian government has transferred to the needs of Russia:
- at least 94 T-72A tanks
- 36-44 Urals
- 20 BMP-2"
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1587428073129082881
It also indicates how short of kit Russia may be getting. It must be fairly embarrassing for Putin to go begging to 'lesser' nations for such help.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
19h
Combined Net Approval Ratings (30 October):
Rishi Sunak: +10% (+8)
Keir Starmer: +8% (-5)
Jeremy Hunt: +6% (+13)
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1587369070344667139
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
20h
Sunak leads Starmer by 4%.
At this moment, which of the following do British voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (30 Oct.)
Rishi Sunak 41% (+2)
Keir Starmer 37% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-26 Oct.
Also, the question is what Russia can do about it. Allegedly they attacked a tug yesterday, but such attacks are wildly counterproductive and risks escalating in non-helpful ways he cannot necessarily control.
DRAG
The three most likely dates are:
May 2024 - Usual spring election with less than 12 months to go. Disadvantage is this is only 18 months away now, and if Sunak loses, whilst it won't be Truss levels of tenure, he'll be firmly down there with the likes of Douglas-Home in the length he's served. It's unlikely he'll do a Wilson and be able to come back.
October 2024 - Hanging on for five more months without a 'to the death' election like Major did. Bit longer to turn things around and not too late in the year that the dark nights have completely set in.
January 2025 - If I'm going to lose, I'm going to hang on to the bitter end election. I think if he does this, he'll lose from people voting against him for the sheer obvious desperation he'll be showing.
I think October 2024 is most likely, followed by May 24 then January 25.
Did her mother “invade” Mauritius when she moved there?
Did both her parents “invade” the UK when they emigrated here?
And did Braverman herself “invade” France when she lived there for 2 years?
https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1587210277900226561?s=46&t=Ylgqqlho9rXQMgaCzRYIOQ
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
Also note that 'Russian' casualties can vary wildly by what is included. Do you include just Russian troops, or the DPM/LPM troops? How about the foreign fighters on both sides? Wagner Group?
When asked ‘who would make the most capable Prime Minister’, Boris Johnson leads Jeremy Corbyn by 52% to 27%
Corbyn: Thrashed by a clown.
Jeremy Corbyn fan, please explain?
Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587378303576543233
https://twitter.com/AmandaCC92/status/1587400145003487232
malcolmg said:
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Poor old Adolf Foreskin, ranting and raving his bigotry against Scots. What a sadsack.
You will do yourself an injury Adolf , fat gammony goosesteppers should be more careful.
I have Scots in my family dickhead. I do not have bigotry toward any person of Scottish heritage, I leave bigotry to sad thickos such as yourself and @StuartDickson and your small minded and unconcealed Anglophobia. You are a silly stupid, angry little man that is so intensely moronic that you are still a bumlicking follower of a man so vile that he was described by his own QC as "a bully and a sex pest". And you think this is someone worthy of following? Only someone with fascist tendencies or intense immorality or stupidity could want to follow someone like that. Fortunately for Salmond there are people like yourself who have all three
Now go back to ranting about how unfair it is that you got no education and watch out for your wife when she comes back from the bingo and screams at you for being such a sad loser.
Oh Dear , poor old Adolf Foreskin must have had his sweets stolen by a Scot when he was young. The bigot's bigot rides again.
An uncouth uneducated oaf given his use of words, obviously of low intelligence and poorly educated to make such vile accusations, the poor addled bozo is to be pitied.
Only marginally, mind.
The Russian air force had no cover along the northern Black Sea coast because of the absence of the fleet. That has caused control of the skies to be largely missing in the southern and eastern areas. The supply of ubiquitous manpads has taken out a significant number of fixed wing aircraft when they do appear. Even worse, the helicopters, especially the K-52 Alligator, have played limited roles in supporting/moving ground troops - and when they have, at a high cost. Their battlefield performances have been terrible adverts for those who might have been considering purchasing them.
The real catastrophe though has been the Army. NATO must have looked on in bewilderment that this was the Army they had been fearing in Europe for decades. Their blitzkrieg on Kyiv was a fiasco of unclear aims, woeful intelligence and strategy based on them just rolling up to an enemy that would melt away like mist. Many of the troops didn't even know they were going for something more than an exercise. Other elite units raced ahead for battle honours - only to then be destroyed as functioning regiments.
When they regrouped and got their shit together for artillery barrage --> destroy everything in front of them - -> advance and repeat, it worked in Donbas. For a while. But once they lost the advantage of range against HIMARS (a piece of quite aged kit, especially when deprived by the US of its longer range shells) their only successful method of waging war fell apart. Their main battle tanks were no match for cheap and prolific anti-tank weapons in theatre. The rest of their kit fared worse, with things such as tyres and fuel proving a logistics bridge too far. Massive ammunition dumps moved by trains were the way Russia had always done it - but not next time, you have to think, as one after another they got picked off from 50 miles away with pinpoint precision.
Russia might still try a new surprise offensive out of Belarus. But between Belarus and Ukraine is the largest marshland in Europe. The few routes through are heavily mined/obstructed and have artillery pinpointing the limited attack points. Unless Russia can find a very different way of fighting a war against Ukraine, it is hard to see how that ends in anything other than another rout - followed by the likely overthrow of Lukashenko by the true winner of the presidential election. That means another candidate for NATO membership snug against the Russian border, adding to the strategic disaster of Sweden and Finland joining, bringing nukes within 50 miles of St. Petersburg. Forget ICBMs - you could now almost drive a nuke there in a Transit van.
Best example of psychological projection I have ever seen though. Bravo!
I guess the damp in the bungalow is getting to you, or did you have to lie low for a while to escape your wife's earbashing, or did it take you while to get back online at the library?
WW2 Casualty and death figures are huge. We are talking millions of dead per side for the Germans and Russians. The average monthly death toll on the Eastern Front was way, way higher than 45k a month.