I had to take a look at Lembit Opik, suddenly remembering he existed. He's taken quite the political journey these last few years if Wikipedia is to be believed, drifting towards trying to be President of Estonia and then speaking at Conservative conferences and then finally UKIP.
Glad he's gone from the LDs now then.......
His Montgomeryshire loss in 2010 was the furthest down the target list Cameron's Tories got. Target 210 from memory
If I had a political party, the last person I'd want to be a member was Lembit Opik. The man is a certified idiot.
He had a show on BBC Radio Kent for a while for some reason.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
I should have guessed you would be a Putin sockpuppet Foreskin, though I underestimated what an evil nasty piece of merde you really are.
Your childish attempts to annoy me by projecting your own Salmond nationalism/fascism on me, a centrist, are pathetic. Salmond took money from RT. You are an apologist for Salmond and therefore Putin.
You are just so fucking thick, but then you believe in nationalism, the thickos philosophy that is one step away (or zero steps in your case) from fascism.
Pull it up your bellend is showing and it is not a pretty sight.
I suspect my bellend is more attractive than your ugly fat, bald, hate filled face. Your wife certainly told me she thinks it is.
Hey guys, get a room before the ban hammer exiles you there.
Change your name to Leon/eadric/SeanT/LadyG and you'll be fine.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
Imagine if Russia played England at football, Malc. Who'd be the real men with the hairiest a*ses then, bearing in mind that Burns Night is big in Russia?
Not quite war , but I think we could whup their hairy arses.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
I should have guessed you would be a Putin sockpuppet Foreskin, though I underestimated what an evil nasty piece of merde you really are.
Your childish attempts to annoy me by projecting your own Salmond nationalism/fascism on me, a centrist, are pathetic. Salmond took money from RT. You are an apologist for Salmond and therefore Putin.
You are just so fucking thick, but then you believe in nationalism, the thickos philosophy that is one step away (or zero steps in your case) from fascism.
Pull it up your bellend is showing and it is not a pretty sight.
I suspect my bellend is more attractive than your ugly fat, bald, hate filled face. Your wife certainly told me she thinks it is.
Hey guys, get a room before the ban hammer exiles you there.
I thought that was quite funny and proportionate. But I take your point and I apologise if anyone was offended
You just showed what a scumbag you are, I bet even your mother thinks you are a lowlife loser.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
Did your mummy never tell you it was rude to butt into other people's conversations Adolf. GIRFUY
Malcolm obviously you're the intentionally funniest poster on PB that goes without saying. Using "Adolf" as a term of anything, however, to another poster I don't think burnishes your funny guy credentials.
I agree Topping but this guy is so nasty it is well merited and until he stops writing abusive posts to me at all times I will return the compliment. He is a nasty nasty piece of work and I will not accept the infantile abuse he constantly posts about me , it is not funny , just sheer nastiness. The clown is obsessed and clearly has issues.
Oh wipe away your tears. You are projecting again. The only reason I am rude to you is because you are abusive to others you disagree with. You are a thuggish bully and sadly there are those on here who are afraid to call you out because they then have to put up with your low intellect abuse. If you post less stupid and infantile prejudiced posts I will leave you alone.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
Imagine if Russia played England at football, Malc. Who'd be the real men with the hairiest a*ses then, bearing in mind that Burns Night is big in Russia?
DJ apologies I misread that , even England who have been getting trounced recently could beat the Russians. Not so sure if the vodka was involved though, they can take a bevvy.
@malcolmg@Nigel_Foremain Why don't you both stop? You are both two anonymous profiles on a web forum. Neither of you will "win" and what does "win" even mean as two anonymous profiles on a web forum?
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
Did your mummy never tell you it was rude to butt into other people's conversations Adolf. GIRFUY
Malcolm obviously you're the intentionally funniest poster on PB that goes without saying. Using "Adolf" as a term of anything, however, to another poster I don't think burnishes your funny guy credentials.
I agree Topping but this guy is so nasty it is well merited and until he stops writing abusive posts to me at all times I will return the compliment. He is a nasty nasty piece of work and I will not accept the infantile abuse he constantly posts about me , it is not funny , just sheer nastiness. The clown is obsessed and clearly has issues.
Oh wipe away your tears. You are projecting again. The only reason I am rude to you is because you are abusive to others you disagree with. You are a thuggish bully and sadly there are those on here who are afraid to call you out because they then have to put up with your low intellect abuse. If you post less stupid and infantile prejudiced posts I will leave you alone.
During the summer artillery fest, the numbers averaged around 200 per day. There was then a sharp increase from the last week of August, with the 7-day average peaking at 450 on 11 Sep, as the liberation of the Izyum axis reached its crescendo, before steadily dropping back to summer levels.
Then starting the last week of Sept, we saw another new peak starting, with 7D average reaching 475 as Ukraine took major ground in Kherson and Lyman and surrounds.
Things then settled to a higher new daily average of 350.
Over the last 4-5 days we’ve seen a new peak commencing, of the type which has historically preceded a major territorial gain. Moving average still rising and at 566 today. Will be interesting to see if these means we’re going to see a major shift in the battle lines in north Luhansk/Kherson, or if this is just desperate human wave tactics from Russia against the deeply dug lines around the Donetsk / Bahkmut.
I believe it is the mobilised troops being thrown in as cannon fodder. They have neither the training or the equipment required. Ukraine has an artillery advantage and they are being pulverised. Mud season has set in so movement is quite difficult at present which I think explains the lack of movement on the frontline. However, Russia is still making concerted effort in some locations (e.g. Bakhmut) which is where heavy losses are coming.
What puts it in perspective is that in 20 years in Afghanistan the British Army lost 454 men. I'm sure we all remember the reading out of individual names in Parliament when they were lost. If Ukraine's numbers are accurate then Russia is losing more than that - every single day!
We all want Russia to lose but those are horrifying numbers. 500-600 young men a day. Every day. 500 sons, brothers, fathers, many of them hapless conscripts, blown apart, dismembered, shot to pieces, vaporised, mutilated, buried alive, eviscerated
And of course Ukraine will be losing 100s as well. What a desolate thing
Ukraine will eb losing less than the Russians, they are real soldiers. Russia is throwing in poor souls with no training and pitchforks. They have no chance.
The depth of your intellectual and military analysis is astonishing. Sandhurst and West Point must be begging you to come and lecture to them.
Did your mummy never tell you it was rude to butt into other people's conversations Adolf. GIRFUY
Malcolm obviously you're the intentionally funniest poster on PB that goes without saying. Using "Adolf" as a term of anything, however, to another poster I don't think burnishes your funny guy credentials.
I agree Topping but this guy is so nasty it is well merited and until he stops writing abusive posts to me at all times I will return the compliment. He is a nasty nasty piece of work and I will not accept the infantile abuse he constantly posts about me , it is not funny , just sheer nastiness. The clown is obsessed and clearly has issues.
Oh wipe away your tears. You are projecting again. The only reason I am rude to you is because you are abusive to others you disagree with. You are a thuggish bully and sadly there are those on here who are afraid to call you out because they then have to put up with your low intellect abuse. If you post less stupid and infantile prejudiced posts I will leave you alone.
Fcuk off Loser
Lol. Your power of argument is mind blowing. I guess you learned your art in the "University of Life" no doubt.
@malcolmg@Nigel_Foremain Why don't you both stop? You are both two anonymous profiles on a web forum. Neither of you will "win" and what does "win" even mean as two anonymous profiles on a web forum?
I will respond as long as the sick loser keeps it up. I will not accept the abuse he posts. I may even stop being nice about it.
@malcolmg@Nigel_Foremain Why don't you both stop? You are both two anonymous profiles on a web forum. Neither of you will "win" and what does "win" even mean as two anonymous profiles on a web forum?
Alternatively, as this is a betting site we could open a book on which of them will receive the ban hammer first for being gratuitously offensive.
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
I’ve worked it all out. I am now able to properly psephologically explain the poor polling Honeymoon Sunak is having - the set of voters he is having trouble with is actually Tory not floaters. Tory and Brexit Pretorian Guard, Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readership, who not sure about Sunak nor his tax raising, austerity, anti-growth policies.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
@malcolmg@Nigel_Foremain Why don't you both stop? You are both two anonymous profiles on a web forum. Neither of you will "win" and what does "win" even mean as two anonymous profiles on a web forum?
I am logging off. Apologies to anyone offended. I hate bullies. It is a shame more people don't call Malcolm out. I know why it is, because he launches tirades of abuse at them. I had hoped he had been banned permanently, he ruins this site. Goodnight everyone
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
I’ve worked it all out. I am now able to properly psephologically explain the poor polling Honeymoon Sunak is having - the set of voters he is having trouble with is actually Tory not floaters. Tory and Brexit Pretorian Guard, Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readership, who not sure about Sunak nor his tax raising, austerity, anti-growth policies.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
If that's right, it's exceptionally good news for Sunak and bad news for Sir Keir, because that group of voters won't vote Labour and almost certainly won't stay at home. A reluctant vote is still a vote.
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
I’ve worked it all out. I am now able to properly psephologically explain the poor polling Honeymoon Sunak is having - the set of voters he is having trouble with is actually Tory not floaters. Tory and Brexit Pretorian Guard, Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readership, who not sure about Sunak nor his tax raising, austerity, anti-growth policies.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
If that's right, it's exceptionally good news for Sunak and bad news for Sir Keir, because that group of voters won't vote Labour and almost certainly won't stay at home. A reluctant vote is still a vote.
They can in large numbers sit on their hands, like they have done before, many will jump at the chance to vote for a Farage vehicle, rather than the high tax low growth charabanc outing Sunak is urging them to jump aboard.
The truth here in the polling and the dishonesty about need for tax rises is Because Truss won. She won on a platform explaining need for tax cuts and growth. Sunak has not spent anytime persuading people of the need to raise taxes, nor won Tory’s over to his platform of higher taxes and worst growth forecast in G7 for next two years - he’s having to bounce Tory’s into his policy agenda - and they are not buying it in any great numbers, as yet.
I’ve worked it all out, the truth behind the political spin and deficit BS. I can also explain what Hunt and Sunak are sneakily up to with their tax rises for fiscal black hole sleight of hand. Where did this fifty billion black hole suddenly come from? Tax cuts? Increased borrowing costs?
Hunt and Sunak see services like NHS and Education creaking at the seams ahead of the coming storms, and they actually want to raise this money not to plug a hole created by Trussnomics - they are raising it to pour into public services creaking at the seams in this inflationary credit crisis cum recession.
They are not going into commons to tell the truth, we are raising taxes to pour into NHS, they are going to say it needs to be raised to plug a economic deficit.
Thank you for replying to my post and challenging my analysis btw
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
I’ve worked it all out. I am now able to properly psephologically explain the poor polling Honeymoon Sunak is having - the set of voters he is having trouble with is actually Tory not floaters. Tory and Brexit Pretorian Guard, Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readership, who not sure about Sunak nor his tax raising, austerity, anti-growth policies.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
If that's right, it's exceptionally good news for Sunak and bad news for Sir Keir, because that group of voters won't vote Labour and almost certainly won't stay at home. A reluctant vote is still a vote.
They can in large numbers sit on their hands, like they have done before, many will jump at the chance to vote for a Farage vehicle, rather than the high tax low growth charabanc outing Sunak is urging them to jump aboard.
The truth here in the polling and the dishonesty about need for tax rises is Because Truss won. She won on a platform explaining need for tax cuts and growth. Sunak has not spent anytime persuading people of the need to raise taxes, nor won Tory’s over to his platform of higher taxes and worst growth forecast in G7 for next two years - he’s having to bounce Tory’s into his policy agenda - and they are not buying it in any great numbers, as yet.
I’ve worked it all out, the truth behind the political spin and deficit BS. I can also explain what Hunt and Sunak are sneakily up to with their tax rises for fiscal black hole sleight of hand. Where did this fifty billion black hole suddenly come from? Tax cuts? Increased borrowing costs?
Hunt and Sunak see services like NHS and Education creaking at the seams ahead of the coming storms, and they actually want to raise this money not to plug a hole created by Trussnomics - they are raising it to pour into public services creaking at the seams in this inflationary credit crisis cum recession.
They are not going into commons to tell the truth, we are raising taxes to pour into NHS, they are going to say it needs to be raised to plug a economic deficit.
Thank you for replying to my post and challenging my analysis btw
(1) What Farage vehicle? He's an irrelevant has-been.
@malcolmg@Nigel_Foremain Why don't you both stop? You are both two anonymous profiles on a web forum. Neither of you will "win" and what does "win" even mean as two anonymous profiles on a web forum?
I am logging off. Apologies to anyone offended. I hate bullies. It is a shame more people don't call Malcolm out. I know why it is, because he launches tirades of abuse at them. I had hoped he had been banned permanently, he ruins this site. Goodnight everyone
You haven't offended me. Its just that if we descend to slanging personal abuse at each other this site will be shut down quicker than you can say Liz Truss.
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
I’ve worked it all out. I am now able to properly psephologically explain the poor polling Honeymoon Sunak is having - the set of voters he is having trouble with is actually Tory not floaters. Tory and Brexit Pretorian Guard, Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readership, who not sure about Sunak nor his tax raising, austerity, anti-growth policies.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
If that's right, it's exceptionally good news for Sunak and bad news for Sir Keir, because that group of voters won't vote Labour and almost certainly won't stay at home. A reluctant vote is still a vote.
They can in large numbers sit on their hands, like they have done before, many will jump at the chance to vote for a Farage vehicle, rather than the high tax low growth charabanc outing Sunak is urging them to jump aboard.
The truth here in the polling and the dishonesty about need for tax rises is Because Truss won. She won on a platform explaining need for tax cuts and growth. Sunak has not spent anytime persuading people of the need to raise taxes, nor won Tory’s over to his platform of higher taxes and worst growth forecast in G7 for next two years - he’s having to bounce Tory’s into his policy agenda - and they are not buying it in any great numbers, as yet.
I’ve worked it all out, the truth behind the political spin and deficit BS. I can also explain what Hunt and Sunak are sneakily up to with their tax rises for fiscal black hole sleight of hand. Where did this fifty billion black hole suddenly come from? Tax cuts? Increased borrowing costs?
Hunt and Sunak see services like NHS and Education creaking at the seams ahead of the coming storms, and they actually want to raise this money not to plug a hole created by Trussnomics - they are raising it to pour into public services creaking at the seams in this inflationary credit crisis cum recession.
They are not going into commons to tell the truth, we are raising taxes to pour into NHS, they are going to say it needs to be raised to plug a economic deficit.
Thank you for replying to my post and challenging my analysis btw
(1) What Farage vehicle? He's an irrelevant has-been.
(2) When did they sit on their hands before?
Reform party support, with Farage cheerleading for it, only needs to grow to a 8 or 9% PV to keep Tories to a 29% PV at the election.
97 for sure when life long Tories didn’t turn out on usual numbers.
@malcolmg@Nigel_Foremain Why don't you both stop? You are both two anonymous profiles on a web forum. Neither of you will "win" and what does "win" even mean as two anonymous profiles on a web forum?
No. Arguing with anonymous stranger on the internet is vital, vital, for any normal functioning human being.
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
I’ve worked it all out. I am now able to properly psephologically explain the poor polling Honeymoon Sunak is having - the set of voters he is having trouble with is actually Tory not floaters. Tory and Brexit Pretorian Guard, Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readership, who not sure about Sunak nor his tax raising, austerity, anti-growth policies.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
If that's right, it's exceptionally good news for Sunak and bad news for Sir Keir, because that group of voters won't vote Labour and almost certainly won't stay at home. A reluctant vote is still a vote.
He's saying they won't be reluctant voters. We have seen a fracturing of the Tory vote in the past which deprived Tory candidates of an otherwise assured victory (e.g. Stockton North, 2019*). The loon vote thinks that Sunak et al are some kind of remoaner appeasers who need to be forced back onto the True Path. As the Tories will be losing the election anyway there is no risk in voting for Refuk.
*It was funny at the count. Me as the LD turncoat walking up and down the tables with my remaining Labour friends laughing at the Tories as the local loons deprived them of victory. Meanwhile the Labour loons glared daggers at me which I mirrored by giving them beaming grins and "how are you Jim!" responses. Good times.
Just trying to imagine the alternate universe where Mitch McConnell had been the target of an assasination attempt a week out from the mid-terms.
My conclusion is thay the Dems are disastrously bad at messaging.
What assassination attempt? It would appear that this fine chap wanted to kidnap and then torture Pelosi to force her to tell the truth about how she stole the election etc. A simple assassination would have been really bad, this would have been many magnitudes than that.
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
I’ve worked it all out. I am now able to properly psephologically explain the poor polling Honeymoon Sunak is having - the set of voters he is having trouble with is actually Tory not floaters. Tory and Brexit Pretorian Guard, Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readership, who not sure about Sunak nor his tax raising, austerity, anti-growth policies.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
If that's right, it's exceptionally good news for Sunak and bad news for Sir Keir, because that group of voters won't vote Labour and almost certainly won't stay at home. A reluctant vote is still a vote.
They can in large numbers sit on their hands, like they have done before, many will jump at the chance to vote for a Farage vehicle, rather than the high tax low growth charabanc outing Sunak is urging them to jump aboard.
The truth here in the polling and the dishonesty about need for tax rises is Because Truss won. She won on a platform explaining need for tax cuts and growth. Sunak has not spent anytime persuading people of the need to raise taxes, nor won Tory’s over to his platform of higher taxes and worst growth forecast in G7 for next two years - he’s having to bounce Tory’s into his policy agenda - and they are not buying it in any great numbers, as yet.
I’ve worked it all out, the truth behind the political spin and deficit BS. I can also explain what Hunt and Sunak are sneakily up to with their tax rises for fiscal black hole sleight of hand. Where did this fifty billion black hole suddenly come from? Tax cuts? Increased borrowing costs?
Hunt and Sunak see services like NHS and Education creaking at the seams ahead of the coming storms, and they actually want to raise this money not to plug a hole created by Trussnomics - they are raising it to pour into public services creaking at the seams in this inflationary credit crisis cum recession.
They are not going into commons to tell the truth, we are raising taxes to pour into NHS, they are going to say it needs to be raised to plug a economic deficit.
Thank you for replying to my post and challenging my analysis btw
(1) What Farage vehicle? He's an irrelevant has-been.
(2) When did they sit on their hands before?
Reform party support, with Farage cheerleading for it, only needs to grow to a 8 or 9% PV to keep Tories to a 29% PV at the election.
97 for sure when life long Tories didn’t turn out on usual numbers.
The Reform Party is not getting anywhere near 8-9% at a general election without a black swan. They don't have the organisation or funding to get candidates on enough ballot papers, and any coverage they get will be aimed at taking away their best asset - their name making people think "the others are crap, reform sounds OK".
As for 1997, overall turnout was up on 1992 and I'm not aware of massive Tory abstention being outweighed by other groups, do you have the evidence for this?
2Y bond yields down to 3.15%, the last time they were the same rate before the disaster budget 2Y mortgage rates were ~4%, currently they are ~6.5%. This is the sign of a broken market, rates should already be falling back down to below 5% and 5Y mortgages under 4.5% yet they aren't because banks have realised an opportunity to individually act in unison and not cut prices to profiteer. The petrol forecourts have the same phenomenon, they've all realised people will buy anyway so if they all don't cut prices they all win and the customer loses. The CMA has been asleep at the wheel for 20 years.
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
I’ve worked it all out. I am now able to properly psephologically explain the poor polling Honeymoon Sunak is having - the set of voters he is having trouble with is actually Tory not floaters. Tory and Brexit Pretorian Guard, Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readership, who not sure about Sunak nor his tax raising, austerity, anti-growth policies.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
If that's right, it's exceptionally good news for Sunak and bad news for Sir Keir, because that group of voters won't vote Labour and almost certainly won't stay at home. A reluctant vote is still a vote.
They can in large numbers sit on their hands, like they have done before, many will jump at the chance to vote for a Farage vehicle, rather than the high tax low growth charabanc outing Sunak is urging them to jump aboard.
The truth here in the polling and the dishonesty about need for tax rises is Because Truss won. She won on a platform explaining need for tax cuts and growth. Sunak has not spent anytime persuading people of the need to raise taxes, nor won Tory’s over to his platform of higher taxes and worst growth forecast in G7 for next two years - he’s having to bounce Tory’s into his policy agenda - and they are not buying it in any great numbers, as yet.
I’ve worked it all out, the truth behind the political spin and deficit BS. I can also explain what Hunt and Sunak are sneakily up to with their tax rises for fiscal black hole sleight of hand. Where did this fifty billion black hole suddenly come from? Tax cuts? Increased borrowing costs?
Hunt and Sunak see services like NHS and Education creaking at the seams ahead of the coming storms, and they actually want to raise this money not to plug a hole created by Trussnomics - they are raising it to pour into public services creaking at the seams in this inflationary credit crisis cum recession.
They are not going into commons to tell the truth, we are raising taxes to pour into NHS, they are going to say it needs to be raised to plug a economic deficit.
Thank you for replying to my post and challenging my analysis btw
(1) What Farage vehicle? He's an irrelevant has-been.
(2) When did they sit on their hands before?
Reform party support, with Farage cheerleading for it, only needs to grow to a 8 or 9% PV to keep Tories to a 29% PV at the election.
97 for sure when life long Tories didn’t turn out on usual numbers.
The Reform Party is not getting anywhere near 8-9% at a general election without a black swan. They don't have the organisation or funding to get candidates on enough ballot papers, and any coverage they get will be aimed at taking away their best asset - their name making people think "the others are crap, reform sounds OK".
As for 1997, overall turnout was up on 1992 and I'm not aware of massive Tory abstention being outweighed by other groups, do you have the evidence for this?
To be fair and honest with you I wasn’t a year old in the June 97 election so don’t remember much of it, but assuming in hindsight for such a terrible result the Tories must have struggled to get many voters out who had supported them for a long time.
“Reform Party is not getting anywhere near 8-9% at a general election” what is your confidence based on? If the Sunak platform is to put taxes up further and get worst growth in G7 because of this, it will be Tories more angry even than floating voters, in my analysis - making next GE huge opportunity for Farage and Reform to poll 8% or more.
It feels to me there is more than enough passion in the Tory party membership, the back benches, it’s media supporters, to want to go in the opposite direction than Sunak’s tax hikes to shower NHS and education budgets with more money to help with inflation, with likely lower growth. Out of those two different ways to go, which one would you prefer Driver? Add even more tax to current tax burden?
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Via @DeltapollUK, 28-31 Oct. Changes w/ 13-17 Oct.
Big question here is how sticky that Labour vote is going to be.
I would expect some to sheer off nearer the GE to LDs (when people remember they exist), but if they’re scoring low-mid 40s it’s difficult to see how they don’t achieve at least a small majority.
Tories appear to have arrested the rot. They now need to try and get back into the 30s. If they can get to the point where they’re getting 34-35% of the vote at the GE they make Labours task for a majority that much harder.
The tricky bit is what happens next.
3-5 points isn't that shabby a new leader bounce, or a ratings rise in a week. But Sunak really needs to keep going up in the polls at that rate for a couple more weeks.
Because I don't see how the events of November 17th, or the coming winter, enhance the government's popularity.
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
Big improvements for Rishi and Hunt and not surprising as they are the grown ups for once and dare I say being underestimated by some on here
Are you related to the Big G who a few days ago said we shouldn't take any notice of polling at all, at least until after the budget statement and probably not until the New Year?
I maintain it will be next Spring before a clear indication of any conservative recovery is evident but observing a trend is useful towards this and certainly the early trend for Rishi is encouraging
I’ve worked it all out. I am now able to properly psephologically explain the poor polling Honeymoon Sunak is having - the set of voters he is having trouble with is actually Tory not floaters. Tory and Brexit Pretorian Guard, Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readership, who not sure about Sunak nor his tax raising, austerity, anti-growth policies.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
If that's right, it's exceptionally good news for Sunak and bad news for Sir Keir, because that group of voters won't vote Labour and almost certainly won't stay at home. A reluctant vote is still a vote.
They can in large numbers sit on their hands, like they have done before, many will jump at the chance to vote for a Farage vehicle, rather than the high tax low growth charabanc outing Sunak is urging them to jump aboard.
The truth here in the polling and the dishonesty about need for tax rises is Because Truss won. She won on a platform explaining need for tax cuts and growth. Sunak has not spent anytime persuading people of the need to raise taxes, nor won Tory’s over to his platform of higher taxes and worst growth forecast in G7 for next two years - he’s having to bounce Tory’s into his policy agenda - and they are not buying it in any great numbers, as yet.
I’ve worked it all out, the truth behind the political spin and deficit BS. I can also explain what Hunt and Sunak are sneakily up to with their tax rises for fiscal black hole sleight of hand. Where did this fifty billion black hole suddenly come from? Tax cuts? Increased borrowing costs?
Hunt and Sunak see services like NHS and Education creaking at the seams ahead of the coming storms, and they actually want to raise this money not to plug a hole created by Trussnomics - they are raising it to pour into public services creaking at the seams in this inflationary credit crisis cum recession.
They are not going into commons to tell the truth, we are raising taxes to pour into NHS, they are going to say it needs to be raised to plug a economic deficit.
Thank you for replying to my post and challenging my analysis btw
(1) What Farage vehicle? He's an irrelevant has-been.
(2) When did they sit on their hands before?
Reform party support, with Farage cheerleading for it, only needs to grow to a 8 or 9% PV to keep Tories to a 29% PV at the election.
97 for sure when life long Tories didn’t turn out on usual numbers.
The Reform Party is not getting anywhere near 8-9% at a general election without a black swan. They don't have the organisation or funding to get candidates on enough ballot papers, and any coverage they get will be aimed at taking away their best asset - their name making people think "the others are crap, reform sounds OK".
As for 1997, overall turnout was up on 1992 and I'm not aware of massive Tory abstention being outweighed by other groups, do you have the evidence for this?
To be fair and honest with you I wasn’t a year old in the June 97 election so don’t remember much of it, but assuming in hindsight for such a terrible result the Tories must have struggled to get many voters out who had supported them for a long time.
“Reform Party is not getting anywhere near 8-9% at a general election” what is your confidence based on? If the Sunak platform is to put taxes up further and get worst growth in G7 because of this, it will be Tories more angry even than floating voters, in my analysis - making next GE huge opportunity for Farage and Reform to poll 8% or more.
It feels to me there is more than enough passion in the Tory party membership, the back benches, it’s media supporters, to want to go in the opposite direction than Sunak’s tax hikes to shower NHS and education budgets with more money, with likely lower growth. Out of those two different ways to go, which one would you prefer Driver? Add even more tax to current tax burden?
My confidence is based on them being complete non-entities. Sure, they're getting a few percent in opinion polls but I strongly believe that's based on their name. I just can't see them getting the coverage necessary to be a force - will they even get into any debates? For them to get 8%+ they'd have to stand in 500, probably 600 constituencies, are they really going to have the organisation and funding to manage that?
As for the last paragraph, it seems likely that neither Sunak nor Sir Keir has the answer to the problems, and we'll get much the same policies regardless of who wins. That means my vote will be based primarily on local factors, and I believe at the moment no party has a candidate selected here (the incumbent is whipless). Certainly voting for a Faragian non-entity is not on the agenda.
Labour 44% (+3) Conservative 33% (+5) Liberal Democrat 16% (-8) Reform UK 4% (+1) Green 2% (-2) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 7-8 October
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voti…
Definition of these seats: "forty-two constituencies in southern England which voted Conservative in the last three general elections, where more than a quarter of adults have degrees, where more than 42.5% of voters are estimated to have voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum, and where the Conservative majority over Labour was under 10,000 or the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats was under 15,000, in the 2019 general election"
Polling of these seats in GE2019: Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 21%.
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
Labour 44% (+3) Conservative 33% (+5) Liberal Democrat 16% (-8) Reform UK 4% (+1) Green 2% (-2) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 7-8 October
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voti…
Pretty terrible for the Lib Dems. Oh dear.
60% of LD snd Lab say they'd consider voting tactically though....... The swing from 2019 is in line with a national rating similar to the last week - low to mid 50s vs mid to high 20s
Labour 44% (+3) Conservative 33% (+5) Liberal Democrat 16% (-8) Reform UK 4% (+1) Green 2% (-2) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 7-8 October
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voti…
Definition of these seats: "forty-two constituencies in southern England which voted Conservative in the last three general elections, where more than a quarter of adults have degrees, where more than 42.5% of voters are estimated to have voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum, and where the Conservative majority over Labour was under 10,000 or the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats was under 15,000, in the 2019 general election"
Polling of these seats in GE2019: Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 21%.
On UNS holding pretty much all the LD challenges but losing all versus Labour.
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
The reach of BBC News probably means only 4 people watching know who Takeoff is.
And 2 of them don't give a shiny shit.
I can't claim to be one of them, I'm afraid.
What you are missing:
My wrist be spinning and spinning and spinning We pullin' in Bentleys we winnin' You losin', I came to conclusion finessin' the plug he lost and he clueless The Uzi, the Uzi, they shooting, they shooting These n----s they droppin' they floppin' I call up the plug, he pullin' up The birds they know that they flockin' My whipgame it is so ancient We cookin' the dope like it's baking Young Offset's still in the vacant We got the best dope in the nation Them red and white, blue diamonds looking just like the Patriots Before I sell the dope I let the J's taste it It is amazing
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
The reach of BBC News probably means only 4 people watching know who Takeoff is.
And 2 of them don't give a shiny shit.
I can't claim to be one of them, I'm afraid.
Save it for the international site.
As with a lot of heardle lately, I tend to Wikipedia it and go, "oh, his band had a couple of UK number 30 hits and featured on a Calvin Harris record I don't particularly recall" or "that answer made UK number 75, that's nice".
(1) What Farage vehicle? He's an irrelevant has-been.
He was on the BBC only yesterday
Andy Pandy was on BBC at the weekend. Your point?
Andy Pandy is not important in UK politics, the last I heard.
Edit: though, given the Tory Party these days, it wouldn't surprise me if he rebranded himself as Tory Pandy and became PM.
Or with his marvellous ear for the Celtic fringe, Tony Pandy.
That reminds me of another kind of Celtic pandy asin the works of the great J. Joyce, the result of the Irish pandy bat which makes a Lochgelly strap seem pretty wimpish in comparison. That might also appeal to certain Tories (though I wouldn't possibly claim to know in detail).
Remember what happened to Priti Patel. She ended up being unpopular with almost everyone. Half the population hated what she said she would do. The other half hated her inability to do it.
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
The reach of BBC News probably means only 4 people watching know who Takeoff is.
And 2 of them don't give a shiny shit.
I can't claim to be one of them, I'm afraid.
What you are missing:
My wrist be spinning and spinning and spinning We pullin' in Bentleys we winnin' You losin', I came to conclusion finessin' the plug he lost and he clueless The Uzi, the Uzi, they shooting, they shooting These n----s they droppin' they floppin' I call up the plug, he pullin' up The birds they know that they flockin' My whipgame it is so ancient We cookin' the dope like it's baking Young Offset's still in the vacant We got the best dope in the nation Them red and white, blue diamonds looking just like the Patriots Before I sell the dope I let the J's taste it It is amazing
Almost a had it coming vibe to the whole thing.
Sorry to read about Young Offset. The printing industry's heading south faster than a pack of huskies. I know a few Old Offsets still in the vacant - and forever destined to remain there. I didn't realise Drill could be so relevant and compassionate.
Remember what happened to Priti Patel. She ended up being unpopular with almost everyone. Half the population hated what she said she would do. The other half hated her inability to do it.
Yes its definitely not a 'safe' strategy but its clear what shes/theyre up to
On @rcs1000 's oft-repeated suggestion that there will be a polling failure in the US this year (by 3-4% consistently in one direction or the other), but that the direction of it is unclear at the moment:
One potential cause for error could be the differential rates of covid deaths between partisans since vaccines became available (and many Republicans went anti-vax). A recent study showed a significant difference in excess deaths:
If pollsters haven't adjusted for this, it could cause a significant error in one direction (sampling assuming more registered Republicans than actually still exist meaning that scaling is wrong and the registered Republican replies are not scaled up enough, meaning that the polls will understate the Republicans) or the other (the number of Republican voters will be lower than otherwise assumed, meaning that the polls will overstate the Republicans). Or the effect could be small enough or cancel out.
Worth considering for a source of error in either direction.
Think it's lower than that right now. Rishi has a huge mountain to climb and the migrant crisis needs a resolution before the end of the year so that no more boats arrive from France in 2023 and the majority of the ones who have arrived are deported back to Albania. I don't think this government is up to the job and that means they will lose in 2024.
To be fair I am not sure any government is.
If someone gets into a boat in another country and comes across there is practically speaking very little you can do if the French won’t cooperate
If the boats are predominantly full of Albanians, as some reports, including from the Government, suggest, then that's a group with a very low success rate for asylum applications, so we catch them, process them and deport (most of) them. This isn't rocket science.
And that’s what they are doing.
But I don’t think that would count as a “resolution of the migrant crisis” because it doesn’t make for headlines
Remember what happened to Priti Patel. She ended up being unpopular with almost everyone. Half the population hated what she said she would do. The other half hated her inability to do it.
Yes its definitely not a 'safe' strategy but its clear what shes/theyre up to
Just such a shame the Tories have run down the RN, if they are going on about invasions. Not like it was when Churchill WS was going on about beaches and hills. What is Ms Braverman going to do, call for a new Home Guard?
"... Banks have realised an opportunity to individually act in unison and not cut prices to profiteer."
Well blow me down. Who'd have thunk the banks might do that. Naughty naughty boys.
Bob Diamond must be smirking into his martini in his retirement home.
Indeed, yet the regulator sits there and does nothing about it while ordinary consumers are price gouged by multi billion pound enterprises. Part of me wonders whether the state has realised that if it chooses not to step in it benefits them as the government earns 27% of the higher net interest margin and 19% of extra earnings by petrol forecourts.
The likes of Martin Lewis bang on about piddly little problems while the huge companies seem to be in a collusion with the state to rip off consumers. He needs to be on TV everyday demanding answers from the government and the banks asking why the banks haven't cut mortgage rates and why the BoE and FCA haven't stepped in to curtail excess profiteering.
Think it's lower than that right now. Rishi has a huge mountain to climb and the migrant crisis needs a resolution before the end of the year so that no more boats arrive from France in 2023 and the majority of the ones who have arrived are deported back to Albania. I don't think this government is up to the job and that means they will lose in 2024.
To be fair I am not sure any government is.
If someone gets into a boat in another country and comes across there is practically speaking very little you can do if the French won’t cooperate
Hold on I thought we were finally back in control after Brexit. Now you say it was the big boy France that did it?
We have the ability to set our legal immigration policies. But illegal immigration from French waters will require cooperation.
"... Banks have realised an opportunity to individually act in unison and not cut prices to profiteer."
Well blow me down. Who'd have thunk the banks might do that. Naughty naughty boys.
Bob Diamond must be smirking into his martini in his retirement home.
Indeed, yet the regulator sits there and does nothing about it while ordinary consumers are price gouged by multi billion pound enterprises. Part of me wonders whether the state has realised that if it chooses not to step in it benefits them as the government earns 27% of the higher net interest margin and 19% of extra earnings by petrol forecourts.
The likes of Martin Lewis bang on about piddly little problems while the huge companies seem to be in a collusion with the state to rip off consumers. He needs to be on TV everyday demanding answers from the government and the banks asking why the banks haven't cut mortgage rates and why the BoE and FCA haven't stepped in to curtail excess profiteering.
State in collaboration with huge banks? It owns a lot of Natwest! (Can't remember the situation with the other state owned banks though.)
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
Are you optimistic you could hold some red wall seats. Those where the demographics are changing in your favour ?
Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
I don't think that's how these numbers play out. I think these headline VI numbers reflect the anti-Tory vote, not the individual constituency tactical unwind.
Think it's lower than that right now. Rishi has a huge mountain to climb and the migrant crisis needs a resolution before the end of the year so that no more boats arrive from France in 2023 and the majority of the ones who have arrived are deported back to Albania. I don't think this government is up to the job and that means they will lose in 2024.
To be fair I am not sure any government is.
If someone gets into a boat in another country and comes across there is practically speaking very little you can do if the French won’t cooperate
If the boats are predominantly full of Albanians, as some reports, including from the Government, suggest, then that's a group with a very low success rate for asylum applications, so we catch them, process them and deport (most of) them. This isn't rocket science.
And that’s what they are doing.
But I don’t think that would count as a “resolution of the migrant crisis” because it doesn’t make for headlines
How many have actually been processed and deported ?
It’s something that is rather lost in the current debate.
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
I think he has a good chance of holding those Red Wall seats with a significant majority. The ones with a small majority will probably go back to Labour.
Maybe this will lighten the mood? My view right now
Looks pretty cold, what is the Temp.
Bitterly cold. Allegedly 3C but with the wind chill more like -8C
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Are you on a Saga coach trip? Nothing wrong with that, but my mental image of your travel adventures is forever altered.
Leon? On a Saga coach trip? With his reputation?
He told us this trip would have him slogging up and down volcanoes in the Icelandic autumn. Being ferried here and there by coach doesn’t match up to the billing…
I’m doing a fair bit of slogging. You can’t get a bus in here
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
I don't think that's how these numbers play out. I think these headline VI numbers reflect the anti-Tory vote, not the individual constituency tactical unwind.
What could be advantageous to the Tories, is that many of these would have had Lib Dems in 2nd place, and so ripe for Labour + LD tactical voting, which would wipe them out in many seats.
Obviously individual seats may vary massively, but the assumption was many of these might fall to Lib Dems. However with Labour being so far ahead in the polling I wonder if that confuses the tactical options, and the Tories might be more likely to sneak through the middle.
On best PM in the blue wall When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
Sunak may still lose the redwall seats but it does look like he is at least shoring up more of the Home Counties Remain/soft Leave seats from the LDs threat
I think he has a good chance of holding those Red Wall seats with a significant majority. The ones with a small majority will probably go back to Labour.
On current polls certainly every red wall seat in the top 100 Labour target seats would go though he might hold a few beyond that
In 51st state news, the BBC website has been offering "live coverage of the tributes to Takeoff, who was shot dead early this morning in Houston, Texas".
Comments
"We were smashed like kittens...."
https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1587468773761622018
Quickly skim thread. Sighs.
Logs off again.
I know this from analysing focus group of just two people - my remain voting Dad would have voted Tory anyway as he has done in every type of election since eighteen, but he is more happy and enthused because of Sunak and Hunt now at heart of government and the economic policy. My mum is the one gone cool on the Sunak government even thinking of voting Farage again like in the 2010s, because of Sunak and Hunt and Gove at the heart of this government with their tax hiking, anti growth economic policies.
The problem with Sunak’s contrived cabinet is more than Braverman - the whole government built on something not strong and stable in the mind of its own supporters, being the hard core Pretorian Guard Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph readers aren’t convinced by Sunak, or his government, particularly it’s economic policies of tax take for a mythic black hole that came from nowhere. Hence these poor Sunak honeymoon polls.
If anything, the budget you are/were waiting for will make this sub set of uncertain Tory support even less enthused.
And you also saying wait till spring? The only thing waiting for Sunak’s Party in the spring is poor polling and horrendous local election results - you can’t say this is just a guess, it’s more than a guess, an educated informed guess.
The truth here in the polling and the dishonesty about need for tax rises is Because Truss won. She won on a platform explaining need for tax cuts and growth. Sunak has not spent anytime persuading people of the need to raise taxes, nor won Tory’s over to his platform of higher taxes and worst growth forecast in G7 for next two years - he’s having to bounce Tory’s into his policy agenda - and they are not buying it in any great numbers, as yet.
I’ve worked it all out, the truth behind the political spin and deficit BS. I can also explain what Hunt and Sunak are sneakily up to with their tax rises for fiscal black hole sleight of hand. Where did this fifty billion black hole suddenly come from? Tax cuts? Increased borrowing costs?
Hunt and Sunak see services like NHS and Education creaking at the seams ahead of the coming storms, and they actually want to raise this money not to plug a hole created by Trussnomics - they are raising it to pour into public services creaking at the seams in this inflationary credit crisis cum recession.
They are not going into commons to tell the truth, we are raising taxes to pour into NHS, they are going to say it needs to be raised to plug a economic deficit.
Thank you for replying to my post and challenging my analysis btw
(2) When did they sit on their hands before?
97 for sure when life long Tories didn’t turn out on usual numbers.
My conclusion is thay the Dems are disastrously bad at messaging.
*It was funny at the count. Me as the LD turncoat walking up and down the tables with my remaining Labour friends laughing at the Tories as the local loons deprived them of victory. Meanwhile the Labour loons glared daggers at me which I mirrored by giving them beaming grins and "how are you Jim!" responses. Good times.
As for 1997, overall turnout was up on 1992 and I'm not aware of massive Tory abstention being outweighed by other groups, do you have the evidence for this?
Actually hurting my hands (which are in special smartphone-friendly gloves)
I have retreated to the coach and am yearning for hard Icelandic liquor
Great day tho
Edit: though, given the Tory Party these days, it wouldn't surprise me if he rebranded himself as Tory Pandy and became PM.
But Dems are aiming for messaging which wins elections *& holds the country together*.
Republicans are only going for the former.
I won’t go into details but it’s a specialised tour group of scientists and the like. Vulcanologists and geologists and tech types - and me
As I said I met two AI experts at breakfast this morning
Quite geeky but high level discussions
“Reform Party is not getting anywhere near 8-9% at a general election” what is your confidence based on? If the Sunak platform is to put taxes up further and get worst growth in G7 because of this, it will be Tories more angry even than floating voters, in my analysis - making next GE huge opportunity for Farage and Reform to poll 8% or more.
It feels to me there is more than enough passion in the Tory party membership, the back benches, it’s media supporters, to want to go in the opposite direction than Sunak’s tax hikes to shower NHS and education budgets with more money to help with inflation, with likely lower growth. Out of those two different ways to go, which one would you prefer Driver? Add even more tax to current tax burden?
Blue Wall Voting Intention (29 October):
Labour 44% (+3)
Conservative 33% (+5)
Liberal Democrat 16% (-8)
Reform UK 4% (+1)
Green 2% (-2)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 7-8 October
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voti…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/63471396
When asked which would be a better Prime Minister at this moment between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 45% of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 31% choose Keir Starmer. 25% say they don’t know.
3-5 points isn't that shabby a new leader bounce, or a ratings rise in a week. But Sunak really needs to keep going up in the polls at that rate for a couple more weeks.
Because I don't see how the events of November 17th, or the coming winter, enhance the government's popularity.
That was Hancock.
As for the last paragraph, it seems likely that neither Sunak nor Sir Keir has the answer to the problems, and we'll get much the same policies regardless of who wins. That means my vote will be based primarily on local factors, and I believe at the moment no party has a candidate selected here (the incumbent is whipless). Certainly voting for a Faragian non-entity is not on the agenda.
"... Banks have realised an opportunity to individually act in unison and not cut prices to profiteer."
Well blow me down. Who'd have thunk the banks might do that. Naughty naughty boys.
Bob Diamond must be smirking into his martini in his retirement home.
Polling of these seats in GE2019: Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 21%.
And 2 of them don't give a shiny shit.
The swing from 2019 is in line with a national rating similar to the last week - low to mid 50s vs mid to high 20s
My wrist be spinning and spinning and spinning
We pullin' in Bentleys we winnin'
You losin', I came to conclusion finessin' the plug he lost and he clueless
The Uzi, the Uzi, they shooting, they shooting
These n----s they droppin' they floppin'
I call up the plug, he pullin' up
The birds they know that they flockin'
My whipgame it is so ancient
We cookin' the dope like it's baking
Young Offset's still in the vacant
We got the best dope in the nation
Them red and white, blue diamonds looking just like the Patriots
Before I sell the dope I let the J's taste it
It is amazing
Almost a had it coming vibe to the whole thing.
As with a lot of heardle lately, I tend to Wikipedia it and go, "oh, his band had a couple of UK number 30 hits and featured on a Calvin Harris record I don't particularly recall" or "that answer made UK number 75, that's nice".
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587498377167736832?t=AhkAObE7v6_S3JJVSC9qwQ&s=19
AI! Lab Leak! Woke! UFOs! AI! Lab Leak! Woke! UFOs! AI! Lab Leak! Woke! UFOs!
https://theninthhouse.wordpress.com/tag/pandy-bat/
Approve: 38% (+6)
Disapprove: 22% (-4)
Net: +16% (+10)
Changes +/- 7-8 October
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/blue-wall-voting-intention-29-october-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1587499765709033472/photo/1
One potential cause for error could be the differential rates of covid deaths between partisans since vaccines became available (and many Republicans went anti-vax). A recent study showed a significant difference in excess deaths:
If pollsters haven't adjusted for this, it could cause a significant error in one direction (sampling assuming more registered Republicans than actually still exist meaning that scaling is wrong and the registered Republican replies are not scaled up enough, meaning that the polls will understate the Republicans) or the other (the number of Republican voters will be lower than otherwise assumed, meaning that the polls will overstate the Republicans). Or the effect could be small enough or cancel out.
Worth considering for a source of error in either direction.
But I don’t think that would count as a “resolution of the migrant crisis” because it doesn’t make for headlines
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AXSI5J-FrA
The likes of Martin Lewis bang on about piddly little problems while the huge companies seem to be in a collusion with the state to rip off consumers. He needs to be on TV everyday demanding answers from the government and the banks asking why the banks haven't cut mortgage rates and why the BoE and FCA haven't stepped in to curtail excess profiteering.
It’s not rocket science
It’s something that is rather lost in the current debate.
I guess that makes this unfortunate chap their John Lennon.
All Britons: 43% appropriate / 44% inappropriate
Con voters: 76% / 16%
Lab voters: 16% / 74%
LD voters: 21%/69%
ABC1s: 36%/52%
C2DEs: 52%/33%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587498377167736832?s=20&t=57Z1IoV-CjI9QTqI2YJAgQ
I think that may come as a surprise to some and not sure but Braverman may have hit a cord with her much criticised 'invasion'
It is certainly divisive and not easily resolved
Obviously individual seats may vary massively, but the assumption was many of these might fall to Lib Dems. However with Labour being so far ahead in the polling I wonder if that confuses the tactical options, and the Tories might be more likely to sneak through the middle.