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Let’s talk about Brexit – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFD said:

    Just 23% of voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 11% wanting to rejoin the single market.

    Just 7% of Conservative voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 12% wanting to rejoin the single market

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    This was a fun poll that's being quoted by either side to prove whatever they want, because they have exceptionally teensy numbers for both "rejoin" and "brexit as it actually exists". The way they get these numbers is by giving the voters multiple types of unicorn, including the epically vague option of "in a new kind of association with the EU unlike anything we know today".
    Does that new kind of association happen to involve cake by any chance?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    edited October 2022

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just 23% of voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 11% wanting to rejoin the single market.

    Just 7% of Conservative voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 12% wanting to rejoin the single market

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    Classic HY to comb through a batch of polling stats that show most people now wanting a pragmatic, closer and positive relationship with the EU, including a good chunk of former leave voters, and pick out the one figure that can be presented to suggest the opposite.
    A standard Mini Franco post follows this blueprint.

    71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams.

    (genius @Benpointer )
    You forgot the epic one - which, paraphrased, went something like "Rishi [sic, edit] is popular with Scots [sic] because he is more popular than Boris with Scots [sic]".
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    malcolmg said:

    We aren't joining the Euro. Therefore it's very hard to see the UK rejoining the EU in its present form. Beyond that, it's very difficult to predict the future direction of travel.

    The EU is an utterly dysfunctional political body that can muddle through only by allowing a small elite to effectively run the show, and is riven with economic tensions that seem to be getting more rather less acute. There are all sorts of possibilities, and they should include scenarios where the EU starts to fragment further with the possibility of the UK joining a loose political association which includes one or more other former EU states, just as much as other possibilities involving rowing back on Brexit to some degree.

    :D you describe teh dysfunctional UK and try to project it as teh EU, incredible and perfectly highlights why England is Fcuked and taking us down wit hit. Led by donkeys right enough and more Billy No Mates than ever.
    I value my country's independence. You don't. It's time that you changed the question on the referendum that you want. Leaving the UK in order to rejoin the EU is not voting for independence.
    A lot more independent than being a colony.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Farooq said:

    But it seems many of Scotland’s MSPs know better than Sinead. They also know better than Dr Hilary Cass, whose interim review into gender identity services in England led to the closure of the Tavistock clinic, which provided the same services as Sandyford.

    The know better than NHS England who this week issued guidance warning medics that most children identifying as transgender are going through a “transient phase”. And they think they know better than those desperate parents looking for moral and practical support, only to be told they are bigots.


    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/gender-reform-scotland-who-else-will-have-the-courage-to-protect-our-children-in-our-mixed-up-world-susan-dalgety-3897184

    I'm reminded of the "won't someone think of the children" copy from the tabloids when trying to defend Section 28. Happy days.
    Meanwhile, on the substance, you reject both the interim Cass review and the proposed NHS England guidelines, and are totally fine for Sandyford to “carry on castrating” on the basis of very limited supporting evidence, as their own clinicians admit?
    Some folk sure are happily muddling statutory registration of gender, clinical standards, and evidence-based medicine and approval of treatments on that basis.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Andy_JS said:

    I would be in favour of re-joining the EU (since I was a Remain voter) if there was a way of doing it without insulting the 17.4 million people who voted Leave. But there isn't.

    So Labour should not win the next election because that would be an insult to all the Red Wall Boris voters.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    We aren't joining the Euro. Therefore it's very hard to see the UK rejoining the EU in its present form. Beyond that, it's very difficult to predict the future direction of travel.

    The EU is an utterly dysfunctional political body that can muddle through only by allowing a small elite to effectively run the show, and is riven with economic tensions that seem to be getting more rather less acute. There are all sorts of possibilities, and they should include scenarios where the EU starts to fragment further with the possibility of the UK joining a loose political association which includes one or more other former EU states, just as much as other possibilities involving rowing back on Brexit to some degree.

    :D you describe teh dysfunctional UK and try to project it as teh EU, incredible and perfectly highlights why England is Fcuked and taking us down wit hit. Led by donkeys right enough and more Billy No Mates than ever.
    I value my country's independence. You don't. It's time that you changed the question on the referendum that you want. Leaving the UK in order to rejoin the EU is not voting for independence.
    A lot more independent than being a colony.
    Now, now you'll upset them - they are bears of little brain who can't grasp the notion that the Scottish legal and political system is 100% under the ultimate control of Westminster (whatever devolution arrangements they have in place at the moment).
  • Tres said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Rcs on Musk: “I wish him well, and I'm sure he'll do a better job than the previous owners, but I suspect it will never pay back the $44bn.”

    I suspect this comment is going to look quite amusing in a few years. Musk was drawing up plans for the “everything app” way back in his PayPal days and before Wechat even existed. He bought the x.com brand years ago and has had it sat there doing nothing ever since. Waiting for something.

    The market timing of his acquisition was poor certainly. But I reckon he’s got to the place where a lot of the heavy lifting from him at Tesla is done, it’s on a self sustaining path now to fast expanding cashflow growth. SpaceX still has hurdles to cross to be sure with Starship but the satellite business is close to reaching sufficient scale to take the company’s valuation to another next level, which should mean the financial means for it to act as the bus to Mars are secure, even if there are crinkles to iron out on what to do upon arrival!

    So he’s decided to spend more time on the thing he gave most headspace to early in his career, before he was eased out of PayPal.

    Well, we'll see.

    But here's why I am sceptical:

    (1) There is (effectively) no Apple in China. Everyone is on Android, and there's no dominant handset software provider. You can do the "Everything App" in China, because there's no handset lockin. To do it in the West, the "everything app" has to fit around Apple's plans. And Apple are bastards.

    (2) Inertia is a powerful thing. And real innovation tends to come from smaller companies. Yes, people will go to Twitter (or pb.com) because that's what they've always done. But something new and killer... well if I had a killer app idea, I'd quit and launch it myself. Musk may have that killer app idea... but he also may not.

    (3) There's no cashflow to milk at Twitter. And the cost of maintaining the platform is non-trivial. Sure - as I said - I reckon he'll do better than previous owners. But to make the $5bn/year post tax necessary to ultimately justify the price, he needs to probably triple sales, while holding costs flat. In a business which is losing, not gaining, relevance.
    (4) Musk himself. Not only is he becoming increasingly Marmite; he might find himself in regulatory difficulties, particularly in Europe.
    Tesla feels less and less like an aspirational brand and more like a signal to the world that you're a Musk simp.
    I’ve been catching up with the Elon Musk Show. Not the least disturbing thing about Muskism is the adulatory grovelling sent his way by employees, some media and even run of the mill punters, and the way he laps it up. Creepy af and it surely can’t end well.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three points:

    (1) We are not rejoining
    (2) We are not rejoining
    (3) It is possible we will have a closer relationship with the EU in future
    (3a) We are not rejoining

    It's about learning to live with your mistake, or in the case of half of us,learning to live with other people's mistake. Once you have eliminated your best option you start rejecting your most damaging alternatives.

    So Britain's destiny is Vassal State, I believe.. It takes a long time for people to accept that.
    It will never be "vassal state" because Britain's raw geopolitical power is equal to or surpasses the top two EU members on their level, and that will tell regardless of the formal treaty relationships that have been established.

    Were we an Ireland, Belgium or Denmark I'd agree with you.
    I find that astoundingly optimistic. It might have been true 50 years ago, but compare the British armed forces with some other nations and consider the rate of change of position in the table. At the current rate of failure to replace or modernise kit the UK soon won't have a useable army. As for the navy, the Conservative obsession with a Royal Yacht was distinctly unhelpful, not least because the RY would require the almost permanent detachment of a frigate to escort it (as, for instance, the Battle-class destroyer HMS Solebay did for HMY Britannia)>
    I think I'm one of the most robust posters on here in consistently arguing for higher defence spending.

    But, there are only two really serious defence players in Europe: us and the French.
    In terms of land Army the Poles are seriously upping their game.
    And that report you posted (thanks - haven't had time to read it fully) remarked on the Germans ditto.
  • Good point though.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three points:

    (1) We are not rejoining
    (2) We are not rejoining
    (3) It is possible we will have a closer relationship with the EU in future
    (3a) We are not rejoining

    It's about learning to live with your mistake, or in the case of half of us,learning to live with other people's mistake. Once you have eliminated your best option you start rejecting your most damaging alternatives.

    So Britain's destiny is Vassal State, I believe.. It takes a long time for people to accept that.
    It will never be "vassal state" because Britain's raw geopolitical power is equal to or surpasses the top two EU members on their level, and that will tell regardless of the formal treaty relationships that have been established.

    Were we an Ireland, Belgium or Denmark I'd agree with you.
    LOL, Mr Jingo personified
    I thought I might have spotted Casino in Tesco the other day.


  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    We aren't joining the Euro. Therefore it's very hard to see the UK rejoining the EU in its present form. Beyond that, it's very difficult to predict the future direction of travel.

    The EU is an utterly dysfunctional political body that can muddle through only by allowing a small elite to effectively run the show, and is riven with economic tensions that seem to be getting more rather less acute. There are all sorts of possibilities, and they should include scenarios where the EU starts to fragment further with the possibility of the UK joining a loose political association which includes one or more other former EU states, just as much as other possibilities involving rowing back on Brexit to some degree.

    :D you describe teh dysfunctional UK and try to project it as teh EU, incredible and perfectly highlights why England is Fcuked and taking us down wit hit. Led by donkeys right enough and more Billy No Mates than ever.
    I value my country's independence. You don't. It's time that you changed the question on the referendum that you want. Leaving the UK in order to rejoin the EU is not voting for independence.
    A lot more independent than being a colony.
    Now, now you'll upset them - they are bears of little brain who can't grasp the notion that the Scottish legal and political system is 100% under the ultimate control of Westminster (whatever devolution arrangements they have in place at the moment).
    Next we will get the mince that it is a democracy and we have an equal vote and can adjust our own income tax ( reduce pocket money at same time )
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    HYUFD said:

    Just 23% of voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 11% wanting to rejoin the single market.

    Just 7% of Conservative voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 12% wanting to rejoin the single market

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    This was a fun poll that's being quoted by either side to prove whatever they want, because they have exceptionally teensy numbers for both "rejoin" and "brexit as it actually exists". The way they get these numbers is by giving the voters multiple types of unicorn, including the epically vague option of "in a new kind of association with the EU unlike anything we know today".
    Does that new kind of association happen to involve cake by any chance?
    It does indeed, and a cake more delicious than anything you have ever tasted.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited October 2022



    I was just jumping into to correct @BartholomewRoberts misapprehension.

    Monetary sterilisation is the right overall strategy but the US has notable advantages that we don’t.

    It wouldn’t be right for me to comment in too much detail on these topics but rest assured that I never do anything without due and appropriate hesitation.

    ☺️

    The right strategy to acheive what outcome though? What does success look like?
    To return the money supply back to appropriate levels and squeeze asset price inflation out of the system. A soft landing would be success.
    As the front of todays 👁 puts it - new era of austerity, cuts and tax INCREASES (tax already highest for 80 years) to stop UK becoming third world country with national debt seen as junk bonds. Even NHS under microscope as only way to bring down interest rates and inflation.

    If I have the gist of where you are coming from Lucky, you want to challenge what is being presented as inarguable? You are right to.

    Where’s it coming from, whose putting it about that all this is true? We never heard of black holes and austerity to solve deficit from the lips of PM Boris Johnson, nor heard it from Truss or Sunak during their long election campaign. Where has it suddenly come from?

    Did Truss create all this problem with one budget now reversed? 🤔

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three points:

    (1) We are not rejoining
    (2) We are not rejoining
    (3) It is possible we will have a closer relationship with the EU in future
    (3a) We are not rejoining

    It's about learning to live with your mistake, or in the case of half of us,learning to live with other people's mistake. Once you have eliminated your best option you start rejecting your most damaging alternatives.

    So Britain's destiny is Vassal State, I believe.. It takes a long time for people to accept that.
    It will never be "vassal state" because Britain's raw geopolitical power is equal to or surpasses the top two EU members on their level, and that will tell regardless of the formal treaty relationships that have been established.

    Were we an Ireland, Belgium or Denmark I'd agree with you.
    I find that astoundingly optimistic. It might have been true 50 years ago, but compare the British armed forces with some other nations and consider the rate of change of position in the table. At the current rate of failure to replace or modernise kit the UK soon won't have a useable army. As for the navy, the Conservative obsession with a Royal Yacht was distinctly unhelpful, not least because the RY would require the almost permanent detachment of a frigate to escort it (as, for instance, the Battle-class destroyer HMS Solebay did for HMY Britannia)>
    I think I'm one of the most robust posters on here in consistently arguing for higher defence spending.

    But, there are only two really serious defence players in Europe: us and the French.
    Also Turkey, Poland, Russia and (apparently) Ukraine.
  • IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    You really ought not to encourage him.

    You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
    UFOs is my favourite of his.

    Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.

    Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
    He is. He is so bitterly anti-woke that it probably helps to understand why. Here's a guy who wrote a bestselling memoir based on male conquests of women, something which 20 years ago worked. He built a meme around it.

    But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.

    He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.

    I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
    I toy with the idea that you are a joke created by Sean. The reference to the memoir with approximately correct date and roughly accurate summary is suspicious. On the other hand you never lapse into stylistic seanisms and I am not sure he would have the self discipline to get up early and post in character for two hours.

    I genuinely don’t think he’s good enough to pull it off. Some PB’ers will remember Byronic, the first regeneration of the original account, who when it first appeared claimed to be a Remain voter living in Richmond. That cover story lasted only a handful of messages before it was quite obvious both the style and political opinions were as before.
    There was an earlier one named after some Dark Ages British saint or mystic whose name I forget. I pride myself that I identified him after 2 or 3 posts, to much huffing & puffing about how unwelcoming this was to a new poster.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    CD13 said:

    Mr Pioneers,

    Do you trust politicians? Many people do not unless they see good evidence for why they should. And they may be correct. After 25 years of denying it was a political grouping first and foremost, they came round to saying it was always so, and we should have read the small print.

    We have good relations with many of the countries - I went to European meetings (on the scientific side), and it was always cordial. But politics was always in the background. And it always will be.

    Many smaller countries are happy with the economics benefits. Ireland is a good example. It is a worthy project, but
    there's no denying the political aspect looms large. Eventually, they'll come clean and become a united state. It makes a lot of sense once the degrees of nationalism are removed. But that's the difficulty. That pesky democracy.

    Softly, softly, catchee monkey. Even if it means misleading people a little. Even if the aim is worthy?

    That's ultimately what it boils down to and why it's not a realistic option for us.
    This is where I don't quite understand Leavers. I've always thought of the UK as a pretty good model for the EU to follow. We're a united country, but we still have our separate football teams and what have you, and we're comfortable with a few anomalies, like Scotland's legal system, or banknotes, because we don't feel the need to fit into a perfect theoretical framework, we can middle along with some fudges.

    So I thought that the British would be pretty comfortable with the EU's indeterminate status as a country/not a country. It's always felt like a natural extension of the way Britain is put together.
  • I've just had an MRI scan, have a good weekend.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    But it seems many of Scotland’s MSPs know better than Sinead. They also know better than Dr Hilary Cass, whose interim review into gender identity services in England led to the closure of the Tavistock clinic, which provided the same services as Sandyford.

    The know better than NHS England who this week issued guidance warning medics that most children identifying as transgender are going through a “transient phase”. And they think they know better than those desperate parents looking for moral and practical support, only to be told they are bigots.


    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/gender-reform-scotland-who-else-will-have-the-courage-to-protect-our-children-in-our-mixed-up-world-susan-dalgety-3897184

    I'm reminded of the "won't someone think of the children" copy from the tabloids when trying to defend Section 28. Happy days.
    Meanwhile, on the substance, you reject both the interim Cass review and the proposed NHS England guidelines, and are totally fine for Sandyford to “carry on castrating” on the basis of very limited supporting evidence, as their own clinicians admit?
    Some folk sure are happily muddling statutory registration of gender, clinical standards, and evidence-based medicine and approval of treatments on that basis.
    Muddling…..

    However, Nicola Sturgeon is being a tad disingenuous when she echoes the slogan: transwomen are women. She and her spokeswoman, the justice secretary, Shona Robison, have insisted repeatedly that this reform will not in any way “confer new rights on trans people” and will not “diminish women's protections under the 2010 Equality Act”. This means that she does not, indeed cannot, subscribe to the dogma that trans women are women in a literal sense……

    However, if transwomen can be excluded from single sex groups it means that transwomen are not literally female under the law. Otherwise how could they be excluded from such spaces on the basis of their sex? The only way that a transwoman could be banned from a female only prison or a sporting event or a women's refuge is by reference to the biological sex they were born with.


    https://iainmacwhirter.substack.com/p/does-nicola-sturgeon-believe-transwomen
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Heathrow gone done it again: 82 minutes from climbing in my Uber in Camden, to a plate of oysters inside Terminal 2, LHR

    Phenomenal. The Elizabeth Line does this regularly, it used to be a miracle of timing, getting the Heathrow Express just right etc etc

    I’m now an hour early for my flight (in terms of extra waiting time). I will have to factor this in, in future
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    Good point though.

    No it isn't , it i sa single cubicle , locked and therefore no deviants can join you in there. Just an apologist thinking he is a smartarse when he isn't.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329

    I've just had an MRI scan, have a good weekend.

    How many years did you wait to get it
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    HYUFD said:

    Just 23% of voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 11% wanting to rejoin the single market.

    Just 7% of Conservative voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 12% wanting to rejoin the single market

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    This was a fun poll that's being quoted by either side to prove whatever they want, because they have exceptionally teensy numbers for both "rejoin" and "brexit as it actually exists". The way they get these numbers is by giving the voters multiple types of unicorn, including the epically vague option of "in a new kind of association with the EU unlike anything we know today".
    Not really. It's the Tony Blair Institute and the executive foreword is by the man himself.

    Simply, a third want the single market, a third want a closer relationship but not that (think Richard Nabavi's article last month), and a third want the existing Brexit deal or more.

    It doesn't point to Rejoin getting anywhere close in the next 10-15 years.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405

    Good point though.

    It’s hardly the silver bullet he thinks it is seeing as the toilets are single occupancy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789
    HYUFD said:

    Just 23% of voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 11% wanting to rejoin the single market.

    Just 7% of Conservative voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 12% wanting to rejoin the single market

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    Now now we have talked about this before. When something in a poll looks idiotic (against known information) you need to question what you are reading. Look at the details.

    Quoting stuff from the internet without due attention is daft. I mean you could post all sorts of rubbish from PB for instance (and that includes what I post), but it doesn't make it correct.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    You really ought not to encourage him.

    You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
    UFOs is my favourite of his.

    Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.

    Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
    He is. He is so bitterly anti-woke that it probably helps to understand why. Here's a guy who wrote a bestselling memoir based on male conquests of women, something which 20 years ago worked. He built a meme around it.

    But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.

    He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.

    I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
    For someone who is deeply embittered, tragic, “not as funny as he used to be”, “and “so bad I now skip his posts” it is AMAZING how much you guys talk about me. In fact you talk about me more than any other commenter. Which is pleasing
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965
    edited October 2022
    Off topic, I may have missed it but I’m surprised that there has been no celebration by PB Yoons of semi-deranged Unionist blogger Effie Deans being promoted to the Premier League of reactionary fruitcakery, the Spectator. Surely a moment to glory in!

    Link below for anyone desperate to view her lustrous pearls of wisdom.



    https://twitter.com/speccoffeehouse/status/1585511611590053889?s=61&t=OsFeBb7tl2_s9P2KS9TGlg
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789

    I've just had an MRI scan, have a good weekend.

    I hope all is well. Anything you want to share?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    kinabalu said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Pioneers,

    Do you trust politicians? Many people do not unless they see good evidence for why they should. And they may be correct. After 25 years of denying it was a political grouping first and foremost, they came round to saying it was always so, and we should have read the small print.

    We have good relations with many of the countries - I went to European meetings (on the scientific side), and it was always cordial. But politics was always in the background. And it always will be.

    Many smaller countries are happy with the economics benefits. Ireland is a good example. It is a worthy project, but
    there's no denying the political aspect looms large. Eventually, they'll come clean and become a united state. It makes a lot of sense once the degrees of nationalism are removed. But that's the difficulty. That pesky democracy.

    Softly, softly, catchee monkey. Even if it means misleading people a little. Even if the aim is worthy?

    That's ultimately what it boils down to and why it's not a realistic option for us.
    Why is it a realistic option for all those other European countries then? Do they misunderstand it? Have they not yet seen the light?

    Or is *our* sovereignty of a stronger hue than theirs, more precious, such that it cannot be pooled to the same extent?
    Their geopolitics and economies are different
    - their trade is overwhelmingly with the European continent, their security is contingent upon open borders and shared sovereignty with their neighbours upon rhe continent and they have more fluid national identities and a commensurately stronger European cultural one.

    Britain does not. We face several ways at once - including, culturally, far more to the anglosphere - and our interests are much more complex: global and European at the same time, independent and disparate.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    You really ought not to encourage him.

    You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
    UFOs is my favourite of his.

    Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.

    Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
    He is. He is so bitterly anti-woke that it probably helps to understand why. Here's a guy who wrote a bestselling memoir based on male conquests of women, something which 20 years ago worked. He built a meme around it.

    But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.

    He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.

    I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
    For someone who is deeply embittered, tragic, “not as funny as he used to be”, “and “so bad I now skip his posts” it is AMAZING how much you guys talk about me. In fact you talk about me more than any other commenter. Which is pleasing
    Being talked about is not necessarily a good thing
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    If we were to rejoin the capitalist hegemony that is the EU, then at least we would get to enjoy the benefits of the common currency and Schengen.

    A partial compensation for the silly flag, anthem and preening unelected nobodies flitting between Brussels and Strasbourg on the public purse.

    The most likely outcome would be we'd simply go back to blaming the EU for all our problems all over again, rather than Brexit, and get increasingly frustrated by the federal integrationist initiatives from the European Commission from the likes of Ursula Von der Leyer, which would dominate domestic political conversation all over again, requiring UK government to respond, and not be popular.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):

    Lab 51.4% (-1.6)
    Con 24.3% (+2.9)
    LD 8.9% (-0.7)
    Ref 5.2% (+1.2)
    SNP 4.4% (+0.4)
    Grn 4.3% (+0.2)

    In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.

    How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.

    they should have picked Boris
    I agree, in terms of what it would’ve done for Con VI, however not in terms of its effect on public life.

    My guesstimate is that we’d’ve seen a 10 point rise straight away, with the Tories maybe reaching a peak about the mid 30s. Sunak’s floor is lower, but if he does an exceptionally good job, I think his ceiling is higher that The Oaf’s.
    One of last nights by-elections saw a significant decrease in the Tory vote; the other one didn’t. So far the national polls are way ahead of actual votes in terms of seeing the Tory vote disappear.
    The Wednesbury South was a change versus May 2022.
    Make sure you're taking into account the timing of the previous result in your analysis.
    The Tories got 42% in the ward in 2021 and 2022, winning the second place seat in 2021, their best performance here since 2008/9 the only other time this millenium they were competitive. So they remain high end of their recent form in this particular ward.
    Long Eaton was a far worse result of course, vote shares changing in line with this weeks average polling compared to GE 19 funnily enough.
    Overall in the last month the Tories have done pretty poorly generally but nowhere near as badly as national polling
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Leon said:

    In fact you talk about me more than any other commenter.

    Bollocks
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789
    Taz said:

    Good point though.

    It’s hardly the silver bullet he thinks it is seeing as the toilets are single occupancy.
    Not always 😮
  • Taz said:

    Good point though.

    It’s hardly the silver bullet he thinks it is seeing as the toilets are single occupancy.
    The constitution of the Mile High Club says differently.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    Tres said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Rcs on Musk: “I wish him well, and I'm sure he'll do a better job than the previous owners, but I suspect it will never pay back the $44bn.”

    I suspect this comment is going to look quite amusing in a few years. Musk was drawing up plans for the “everything app” way back in his PayPal days and before Wechat even existed. He bought the x.com brand years ago and has had it sat there doing nothing ever since. Waiting for something.

    The market timing of his acquisition was poor certainly. But I reckon he’s got to the place where a lot of the heavy lifting from him at Tesla is done, it’s on a self sustaining path now to fast expanding cashflow growth. SpaceX still has hurdles to cross to be sure with Starship but the satellite business is close to reaching sufficient scale to take the company’s valuation to another next level, which should mean the financial means for it to act as the bus to Mars are secure, even if there are crinkles to iron out on what to do upon arrival!

    So he’s decided to spend more time on the thing he gave most headspace to early in his career, before he was eased out of PayPal.

    Well, we'll see.

    But here's why I am sceptical:

    (1) There is (effectively) no Apple in China. Everyone is on Android, and there's no dominant handset software provider. You can do the "Everything App" in China, because there's no handset lockin. To do it in the West, the "everything app" has to fit around Apple's plans. And Apple are bastards.

    (2) Inertia is a powerful thing. And real innovation tends to come from smaller companies. Yes, people will go to Twitter (or pb.com) because that's what they've always done. But something new and killer... well if I had a killer app idea, I'd quit and launch it myself. Musk may have that killer app idea... but he also may not.

    (3) There's no cashflow to milk at Twitter. And the cost of maintaining the platform is non-trivial. Sure - as I said - I reckon he'll do better than previous owners. But to make the $5bn/year post tax necessary to ultimately justify the price, he needs to probably triple sales, while holding costs flat. In a business which is losing, not gaining, relevance.
    (4) Musk himself. Not only is he becoming increasingly Marmite; he might find himself in regulatory difficulties, particularly in Europe.
    Tesla feels less and less like an aspirational brand and more like a signal to the world that you're a Musk simp.
    Was talking about this with my wife recently, in the context of all the wasted billions on the metaverse, and the relative lack of success of the other billionaire plaything rocket company, and we came to the reluctant conclusion that Musk is the best billionaire tech bro.

    Not a very high bar, admittedly, but I think I'd feel better about handing over my money to pay for Starlink than to any of the others for anything. Not because I like Musk, but his companies do seem able to push the boundaries of what is possible in a way that is useful.
  • nova said:

    We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):

    Lab 51.4% (-1.6)
    Con 24.3% (+2.9)
    LD 8.9% (-0.7)
    Ref 5.2% (+1.2)
    SNP 4.4% (+0.4)
    Grn 4.3% (+0.2)

    In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.

    How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.

    Surely if this doesn't work, they *might* have the brains to realise that changing leader again isn't the best option.

    All the polling suggests that Sunak isn't anything like as unpopular as the party, so if he can't drag them up, who can? Considering that another leadership election is likely to add to the overall negative opinion of the Conservative party, you'd need someone with god-like abilities.

    Clearly the only person able to absolutely shake things up is Johnson, and all the polling suggests he doesn't have that magic anymore.

    I can see reluctant acceptance, and maybe a little hope that a random event close to the election will change fortunes.
    Sunak loses as many votes as he gains. He loses in the white working class but may gain a bit in the london professional class. As the economy gets worse i exoect the tories to flatline in the low to mid 20s
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    HYUFD said:

    Just 23% of voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 11% wanting to rejoin the single market.

    Just 7% of Conservative voters want to rejoin the full EU with a further 12% wanting to rejoin the single market

    https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

    This was a fun poll that's being quoted by either side to prove whatever they want, because they have exceptionally teensy numbers for both "rejoin" and "brexit as it actually exists". The way they get these numbers is by giving the voters multiple types of unicorn, including the epically vague option of "in a new kind of association with the EU unlike anything we know today".
    Not really. It's the Tony Blair Institute and the executive foreword is by the man himself.

    Simply, a third want the single market, a third want a closer relationship but not that (think Richard Nabavi's article last month), and a third want the existing Brexit deal or more.

    It doesn't point to Rejoin getting anywhere close in the next 10-15 years.
    Where are you seeing 1/3 wanting the single market? I'm seeing 11% (figure 15). Then you have 17% and 19% respectively for two different shades of undermined middle-option-biased vague thing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    edited October 2022
    office

    Taz said:

    Good point though.

    It’s hardly the silver bullet he thinks it is seeing as the toilets are single occupancy.
    The constitution of the Mile High Club says differently.
    Touché
  • I dont think comments such as these from Ash Sarker are helpful to the cause of Rishi Sunak

    https://twitter.com/calvinrobinson/status/1585765630183198720?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,792
    Rather OT, but I see that Octopus are officially taking over the remnants of Bulb : https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63437352
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    In fact you talk about me more than any other commenter.

    Bollocks
    Go check. The first two hours of this thread is basically discussions about ME

    Please keep it up. I will worry that my star is fading when you are NOT talking about me
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    malcolmg said:

    I've just had an MRI scan, have a good weekend.

    How many years did you wait to get it
    Smart move to put your children down for one.

    They might need it when their appointment comes up in late middle age...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405

    I've just had an MRI scan, have a good weekend.

    Hope you’re okay fam.
  • Tres said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Rcs on Musk: “I wish him well, and I'm sure he'll do a better job than the previous owners, but I suspect it will never pay back the $44bn.”

    I suspect this comment is going to look quite amusing in a few years. Musk was drawing up plans for the “everything app” way back in his PayPal days and before Wechat even existed. He bought the x.com brand years ago and has had it sat there doing nothing ever since. Waiting for something.

    The market timing of his acquisition was poor certainly. But I reckon he’s got to the place where a lot of the heavy lifting from him at Tesla is done, it’s on a self sustaining path now to fast expanding cashflow growth. SpaceX still has hurdles to cross to be sure with Starship but the satellite business is close to reaching sufficient scale to take the company’s valuation to another next level, which should mean the financial means for it to act as the bus to Mars are secure, even if there are crinkles to iron out on what to do upon arrival!

    So he’s decided to spend more time on the thing he gave most headspace to early in his career, before he was eased out of PayPal.

    Well, we'll see.

    But here's why I am sceptical:

    (1) There is (effectively) no Apple in China. Everyone is on Android, and there's no dominant handset software provider. You can do the "Everything App" in China, because there's no handset lockin. To do it in the West, the "everything app" has to fit around Apple's plans. And Apple are bastards.

    (2) Inertia is a powerful thing. And real innovation tends to come from smaller companies. Yes, people will go to Twitter (or pb.com) because that's what they've always done. But something new and killer... well if I had a killer app idea, I'd quit and launch it myself. Musk may have that killer app idea... but he also may not.

    (3) There's no cashflow to milk at Twitter. And the cost of maintaining the platform is non-trivial. Sure - as I said - I reckon he'll do better than previous owners. But to make the $5bn/year post tax necessary to ultimately justify the price, he needs to probably triple sales, while holding costs flat. In a business which is losing, not gaining, relevance.
    (4) Musk himself. Not only is he becoming increasingly Marmite; he might find himself in regulatory difficulties, particularly in Europe.
    Tesla feels less and less like an aspirational brand and more like a signal to the world that you're a Musk simp.
    Was talking about this with my wife recently, in the context of all the wasted billions on the metaverse, and the relative lack of success of the other billionaire plaything rocket company, and we came to the reluctant conclusion that Musk is the best billionaire tech bro.

    Not a very high bar, admittedly, but I think I'd feel better about handing over my money to pay for Starlink than to any of the others for anything. Not because I like Musk, but his companies do seem able to push the boundaries of what is possible in a way that is useful.
    Yes Zuckerberg has arguably harmed rather than helped society with FB. Drunk on success he has gone down the dead end of the metaverse
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    nova said:

    We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):

    Lab 51.4% (-1.6)
    Con 24.3% (+2.9)
    LD 8.9% (-0.7)
    Ref 5.2% (+1.2)
    SNP 4.4% (+0.4)
    Grn 4.3% (+0.2)

    In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.

    How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.

    Surely if this doesn't work, they *might* have the brains to realise that changing leader again isn't the best option.

    All the polling suggests that Sunak isn't anything like as unpopular as the party, so if he can't drag them up, who can? Considering that another leadership election is likely to add to the overall negative opinion of the Conservative party, you'd need someone with god-like abilities.

    Clearly the only person able to absolutely shake things up is Johnson, and all the polling suggests he doesn't have that magic anymore.

    I can see reluctant acceptance, and maybe a little hope that a random event close to the election will change fortunes.
    Sunak loses as many votes as he gains. He loses in the white working class but may gain a bit in the london professional class. As the economy gets worse i exoect the tories to flatline in the low to mid 20s
    Then why are you still in his cabinet?

    And welcome...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Can we not do anything to help these poor people? It is not right these women and children are treated like this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/28/asylum-seekers-uk-hotel-moves-home-office
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789

    Taz said:

    Good point though.

    It’s hardly the silver bullet he thinks it is seeing as the toilets are single occupancy.
    The constitution of the Mile High Club says differently.
    Great minds. And not for the first time I believe.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    You really ought not to encourage him.

    You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
    UFOs is my favourite of his.

    Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.

    Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
    He is. He is so bitterly anti-woke that it probably helps to understand why. Here's a guy who wrote a bestselling memoir based on male conquests of women, something which 20 years ago worked. He built a meme around it.

    But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.

    He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.

    I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
    I toy with the idea that you are a joke created by Sean. The reference to the memoir with approximately correct date and roughly accurate summary is suspicious. On the other hand you never lapse into stylistic seanisms and I am not sure he would have the self discipline to get up early and post in character for two hours.

    I genuinely don’t think he’s good enough to pull it off. Some PB’ers will remember Byronic, the first regeneration of the original account, who when it first appeared claimed to be a Remain voter living in Richmond. That cover story lasted only a handful of messages before it was quite obvious both the style and political opinions were as before.
    There was an earlier one named after some Dark Ages British saint or mystic whose name I forget. I pride myself that I identified him after 2 or 3 posts, to much huffing & puffing about how unwelcoming this was to a new poster.
    And on it goes. You guys can’t help yourselves

    I suspect you all want to sleep with me, secretly
  • Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    In fact you talk about me more than any other commenter.

    Bollocks
    Go check. The first two hours of this thread is basically discussions about ME

    Please keep it up. I will worry that my star is fading when you are NOT talking about me
    Are you sure? Quite a lot seems to be about this bloke Sean.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Gosh, everyone's really agitated this morning. Chill, guys. It's nearly November and we've kept the heating off. Plus wind is doing OK if not amazingly well for power generation.

    And if you need cheering up, here's a Jasper Carrott show. From 30 years ago but still incredibly fresh and funny.

    I particularly enjoyed the escapades of the cat Lollipop.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOeLUqLYhTY&t=1904s
  • Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say

    He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring

    Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK

    https://twitter.com/Heachy_1979/status/1584937475985723392?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    In fact you talk about me more than any other commenter.

    Bollocks
    Go check. The first two hours of this thread is basically discussions about ME

    Please keep it up. I will worry that my star is fading when you are NOT talking about me
    Are you sure? Quite a lot seems to be about this bloke Sean.
    I am not Sean. But I am gratified that you confuse my humble offerings with those of the great and much-lamented ex-PBer
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    kjh said:

    Taz said:

    Good point though.

    It’s hardly the silver bullet he thinks it is seeing as the toilets are single occupancy.
    The constitution of the Mile High Club says differently.
    Great minds. And not for the first time I believe.
    Er...that was too much information about the relationship you have with @Theuniondivvie
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789
    Farooq said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Rather OT, but I see that Octopus are officially taking over the remnants of Bulb : https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63437352

    What's this got to do with Leon?
    Whose Leon? Should we have a thread about him?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say

    He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring

    Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK

    https://twitter.com/Heachy_1979/status/1584937475985723392?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ

    Speaking of intelligence assets...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Levido back. De Botton new comms meister.

    Starmer had better keeping up Labour's game because 2024 is coming.



  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Farooq said:

    kjh said:

    Farooq said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Rather OT, but I see that Octopus are officially taking over the remnants of Bulb : https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63437352

    What's this got to do with Leon?
    Whose Leon? Should we have a thread about him?
    Whose Leon? Leon belongs to all of us. He is the commonwealth of all humanity.

    We are all Leon.
    No! I'm Leon!!!....
  • novanova Posts: 692
    Taz said:

    Good point though.

    It’s hardly the silver bullet he thinks it is seeing as the toilets are single occupancy.
    Pretty sure most actual toilets are.

    Other than that aren't you just sharing a room with a mirror and wash basins?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    ydoethur said:

    Gosh, everyone's really agitated this morning. Chill, guys. It's nearly November and we've kept the heating off. Plus wind is doing OK if not amazingly well for power generation.

    And if you need cheering up, here's a Jasper Carrott show. From 30 years ago but still incredibly fresh and funny.

    I particularly enjoyed the escapades of the cat Lollipop.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOeLUqLYhTY&t=1904s

    Im not. Im chilled. A real cool cat. Everything is groovy.
  • Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    ON topic I reckon it is highly plausible we will rejoin the SM, probably in some unique form, where both sides can claim a weird “victory”

    I am with @rcs1000 on the more substantial issue. There is near-zero chance we will ever rejoin the political union as it stands. The idea of renouncing that much sovereignty will be anathematic and impossible to sell, especially in a referendum (which will be required)

    Of course if the EU reforms to become some vibrant and truly democratic bloc that might change, but this seems unlikely

    Note that other affluent countries on the periphery of the EU - Norway, Switzerland, Iceland - are completely opposed to joining, and if anything public sentiment goes the other way

  • Tucker Carlson here warning about only 24 days of diesel fuel left

    https://twitter.com/samanthamarika1/status/1586086467171860480?s=20&t=cNHCqIbB6h9jzrmgYmhntg
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Tucker Carlson here warning about only 24 days of diesel fuel left

    https://twitter.com/samanthamarika1/status/1586086467171860480?s=20&t=cNHCqIbB6h9jzrmgYmhntg

    Has he considered trying to purchase some from a gas station?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Taz said:

    kamski said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three points:

    (1) We are not rejoining

    [etc.]

    Repeating it doesn't make it any the more true.

    I think with respect that if you lived in the UK you'd possibly have a different perspective on this. It's a shitshow and most of us now realise it.
    Nevertheless, it is patently and obviously true.

    The UK will not seek readmission to the EU in your or my lifetime, and even if they did (which they won't), they wouldn't take us.
    Really, the more assertive you are the less impressed I am with you stating it. You've provided no backing except a strident viewpoint.

    It's perfectly plausible.

    I mentioned a week or two back that when we have a new Labour Government, the mood will continue to change. Quite significantly so. And in those circumstances the pressures to rejoin will increase further, especially if we continue to struggle economically outside of the bloc. I could see a referendum to rejoin being part of Labour's second term in office, assuming they have one.

    Remember too that with every passing year and month, more of the Brexit demographic dies. Literally.



    Happy to actually have some money on this if you like:

    Full Fat Membership of the EU by 2032, I'll give you 10-1.

    Your call.
    Ha! So now your 'never in our lifetimes' has shrunk to 9 years and to 'Full Fat Membership.'

    That's a massive moving of the goalposts.

    I said that: 'If the UK continues to struggle economically then the pressure to rejoin will probably become irresistible. I can see a referendum to rejoin in the next 20 years as being plausible.'

    I'd go back to your original assertion, endlessly repeated, that it will never happen, then qualified by 'never happen in our lifetimes'.

    I think you're missing the mood on this Robert. Not just anecdotally either. Polling.
    So, that’s just a long winded way of saying no to Robert’s bet.
    Alternatively, RCS1000 going from 0% chance in our lifetimes, to 10-1 in 10 years is either offering odds so miserly it would make the greediest bookie blush, or he's effectively admitting his other categorical statements were wrong. Only an idiot would take that bet.



    What about 1000-1 on Britain becoming a full member by 2040?
    He can hardly offer a bit fifty years hence.

    Heathener is being disingenuous.,she should take the bet.
    2040 is in 50 years?

    Heathener said a rejoin referendum within 20 years was plausible.

    I think any bet to be settled in many years made on an anonymous forum is unrealistic.

    I certainly wouldn't back rejoin within 10 years at 10-1, but isn't it also disingenuous to pretend that those odds are a fair reflection of "impossible within our lifetimes". I'd say rejoin within 25 years at anything above 30-1 would definitely be hypothetical value (assuming not having to stump up losing stake until bet is settled).
  • Farooq said:

    Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say

    He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring

    Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK

    https://twitter.com/Heachy_1979/status/1584937475985723392?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ

    Let me be the first to say you're a mentalist
    It is a hypothesis others are putting forward that Sunak is an intelligence asset. Key to it is noone remembers him from his time at Stanford..
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    ON topic I reckon it is highly plausible we will rejoin the SM, probably in some unique form, where both sides can claim a weird “victory”

    I am with @rcs1000 on the more substantial issue. There is near-zero chance we will ever rejoin the political union as it stands. The idea of renouncing that much sovereignty will be anathematic and impossible to sell, especially in a referendum (which will be required)

    Of course if the EU reforms to become some vibrant and truly democratic bloc that might change, but this seems unlikely

    Note that other affluent countries on the periphery of the EU - Norway, Switzerland, Iceland - are completely opposed to joining, and if anything public sentiment goes the other way

    It rather depends what state the EU is in. If the EU gets through the shitstorm coming this winter and beyond it may be an attractive safe harbour to attach to in some form. If it goes all penniless rats in a sack then maybe not.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Mildest October temperatures across Europe since 1879.

    https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1586287951155077120

    Even the weather Gods hate Putin.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 883
    Leon said:

    ON topic I reckon it is highly plausible we will rejoin the SM, probably in some unique form, where both sides can claim a weird “victory”

    I am with @rcs1000 on the more substantial issue. There is near-zero chance we will ever rejoin the political union as it stands. The idea of renouncing that much sovereignty will be anathematic and impossible to sell, especially in a referendum (which will be required)

    Of course if the EU reforms to become some vibrant and truly democratic bloc that might change, but this seems unlikely

    Note that other affluent countries on the periphery of the EU - Norway, Switzerland, Iceland - are completely opposed to joining, and if anything public sentiment goes the other way

    On the political union, I think the EU's mistake was not deepening the Union before broadening it. Compare with the US, where states of the Union all joined on (more or less) the same terms.

    I think a two speed Union is the way to correct this. A handful of nations join in a deeper political union and, if others wish to join, they do so on those terms. Maybe it's only a handful who wish to join, but that would be a more stable approach imo.
  • Mildest October temperatures across Europe since 1879.

    https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1586287951155077120

    Even the weather Gods hate Putin.

    Yes Ukraine needs to pray for a mild winter with their lack of power
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    We aren't joining the Euro. Therefore it's very hard to see the UK rejoining the EU in its present form. Beyond that, it's very difficult to predict the future direction of travel.

    The EU is an utterly dysfunctional political body that can muddle through only by allowing a small elite to effectively run the show, and is riven with economic tensions that seem to be getting more rather less acute. There are all sorts of possibilities, and they should include scenarios where the EU starts to fragment further with the possibility of the UK joining a loose political association which includes one or more other former EU states, just as much as other possibilities involving rowing back on Brexit to some degree.

    :D you describe teh dysfunctional UK and try to project it as teh EU, incredible and perfectly highlights why England is Fcuked and taking us down wit hit. Led by donkeys right enough and more Billy No Mates than ever.
    I value my country's independence. You don't. It's time that you changed the question on the referendum that you want. Leaving the UK in order to rejoin the EU is not voting for independence.
    A lot more independent than being a colony.
    You no more live in a colony than I do. In fact I should be the one claiming to live in a colony, because where you live you have devolution and I have none. And you're not satisfied with that even though your party has 8% of the seats in the UK parliament after getting just 4% of the vote. That's in a real parliament which can properly hold the executive to account and make or break governments.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Farooq said:

    Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say

    He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring

    Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK

    https://twitter.com/Heachy_1979/status/1584937475985723392?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ

    Let me be the first to say you're a mentalist
    It is a hypothesis others are putting forward that Sunak is an intelligence asset. Key to it is noone remembers him from his time at Stanford..
    Let me be the first to say I hope you are being well paid to look such a complete pillock.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Leon said:

    Heathrow gone done it again: 82 minutes from climbing in my Uber in Camden, to a plate of oysters inside Terminal 2, LHR

    Phenomenal. The Elizabeth Line does this regularly, it used to be a miracle of timing, getting the Heathrow Express just right etc etc

    I’m now an hour early for my flight (in terms of extra waiting time). I will have to factor this in, in future

    Omg Leon, you must be rich to afford all these holidays!!!!
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Leon said:

    Heathrow gone done it again: 82 minutes from climbing in my Uber in Camden, to a plate of oysters inside Terminal 2, LHR

    Phenomenal. The Elizabeth Line does this regularly, it used to be a miracle of timing, getting the Heathrow Express just right etc etc

    I’m now an hour early for my flight (in terms of extra waiting time). I will have to factor this in, in future

    Omg Leon, you must be rich to afford all these holidays!!!!
    Lucky bugger
  • Mildest October temperatures across Europe since 1879.

    https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1586287951155077120

    Even the weather Gods hate Putin.

    To be fair though even in a normal october you dont use your heating mych. The next 4 months are critical
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    Something set on fire in Sevastopol naval base this morning. How will Putin reward the lackey who gives him that news?

    So give him our regards for us.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1586286635708076032
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    How that must cheer your little dark heart....
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,841
    Chris Heaton - bit of advice mate. You are moving too fast. Sunak an intelligence asset, Tucker Carlson warning on diesel, Ukrainians freezing to death. You are in danger of blowing your cover.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Leon said:

    Heathrow gone done it again: 82 minutes from climbing in my Uber in Camden, to a plate of oysters inside Terminal 2, LHR

    Phenomenal. The Elizabeth Line does this regularly, it used to be a miracle of timing, getting the Heathrow Express just right etc etc

    I’m now an hour early for my flight (in terms of extra waiting time). I will have to factor this in, in future

    Meanwhile, in the North of England.......
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Farooq said:

    Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say

    He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring

    Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK

    https://twitter.com/Heachy_1979/status/1584937475985723392?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ

    Let me be the first to say you're a mentalist
    It is a hypothesis others are putting forward that Sunak is an intelligence asset. Key to it is noone remembers him from his time at Stanford..
    Then it's wrong. Both James Van Horne and Derrick Bolton remember him.

    https://stanforddaily.com/2022/10/24/former-stanford-mba-student-selected-uks-next-prime-minister/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Good point though.

    Working at Auckland Uni in 1998 they had unisex toilets. It’s been around a while.
    Most homes* have unisex toilets too.

    *I can’t be sure there aren’t some weirdos who split their toilets up at home.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Who the fuck could have guessed IT CAME FROM THE LAB


    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/10/covid-origins-investigation-wuhan-lab
  • Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    How that must cheer your little dark heart....
    It worries me greatly. We could have a humanitarian catastrophe in ukraine this winter...yet both sides have rigid negotiating positions
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    I've just had an MRI scan, have a good weekend.

    And you, hope all is well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    edited October 2022

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    How that must cheer your little dark heart....
    It worries me greatly. We could have a humanitarian catastrophe in ukraine this winter...yet both sides have rigid negotiating positions
    What negotiating position do you suggest Ukraine adopt?

    Bearing in mind, they have been invaded for no obvious reason by a neighbour led by a man who is clearly one sandwich short of a picnic and who has broken every single treaty he's ever signed.
  • Interesting that most at Stanford didnt have personak memories of Sunak despite him being so exceotional...interesting

    When asked about his time at Stanford during his initial run in August, most GSB deans and professors told The Guardian they did not have many personal memories of Sunak. B
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,792
    Farooq said:

    Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say

    He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring

    Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK

    https://twitter.com/Heachy_1979/status/1584937475985723392?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ

    Let me be the first to say you're a mentalist
    Seems like PB has been downgraded and is only worth a basic model now that all the Tory electioneering is done. It feels like a slight. They were giving us models that could go for a hundred posts or more before going off the rails.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    edited October 2022
    kamski said:

    Taz said:

    kamski said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Three points:

    (1) We are not rejoining

    [etc.]

    Repeating it doesn't make it any the more true.

    I think with respect that if you lived in the UK you'd possibly have a different perspective on this. It's a shitshow and most of us now realise it.
    Nevertheless, it is patently and obviously true.

    The UK will not seek readmission to the EU in your or my lifetime, and even if they did (which they won't), they wouldn't take us.
    Really, the more assertive you are the less impressed I am with you stating it. You've provided no backing except a strident viewpoint.

    It's perfectly plausible.

    I mentioned a week or two back that when we have a new Labour Government, the mood will continue to change. Quite significantly so. And in those circumstances the pressures to rejoin will increase further, especially if we continue to struggle economically outside of the bloc. I could see a referendum to rejoin being part of Labour's second term in office, assuming they have one.

    Remember too that with every passing year and month, more of the Brexit demographic dies. Literally.



    Happy to actually have some money on this if you like:

    Full Fat Membership of the EU by 2032, I'll give you 10-1.

    Your call.
    Ha! So now your 'never in our lifetimes' has shrunk to 9 years and to 'Full Fat Membership.'

    That's a massive moving of the goalposts.

    I said that: 'If the UK continues to struggle economically then the pressure to rejoin will probably become irresistible. I can see a referendum to rejoin in the next 20 years as being plausible.'

    I'd go back to your original assertion, endlessly repeated, that it will never happen, then qualified by 'never happen in our lifetimes'.

    I think you're missing the mood on this Robert. Not just anecdotally either. Polling.
    So, that’s just a long winded way of saying no to Robert’s bet.
    Alternatively, RCS1000 going from 0% chance in our lifetimes, to 10-1 in 10 years is either offering odds so miserly it would make the greediest bookie blush, or he's effectively admitting his other categorical statements were wrong. Only an idiot would take that bet.



    What about 1000-1 on Britain becoming a full member by 2040?
    He can hardly offer a bit fifty years hence.

    Heathener is being disingenuous.,she should take the bet.
    2040 is in 50 years?

    Heathener said a rejoin referendum within 20 years was plausible.

    I think any bet to be settled in many years made on an anonymous forum is unrealistic.

    I certainly wouldn't back rejoin within 10 years at 10-1, but isn't it also disingenuous to pretend that those odds are a fair reflection of "impossible within our lifetimes". I'd say rejoin within 25 years at anything above 30-1 would definitely be hypothetical value (assuming not having to stump up losing stake until bet is settled).
    Obviously 2040 is not fifty years hence, I was looking at the original bet.

    Heathener talks the talk, but won’t walk the walk. She should have took the bet if she was arguing sincerely.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Farooq said:

    kjh said:

    Farooq said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Rather OT, but I see that Octopus are officially taking over the remnants of Bulb : https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63437352

    What's this got to do with Leon?
    Whose Leon? Should we have a thread about him?
    Whose Leon? Leon belongs to all of us. He is the commonwealth of all humanity.

    We are all Leon.
    No! I'm Leon!!!....
    I'm not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Farooq said:

    kjh said:

    Farooq said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Rather OT, but I see that Octopus are officially taking over the remnants of Bulb : https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63437352

    What's this got to do with Leon?
    Whose Leon? Should we have a thread about him?
    Whose Leon? Leon belongs to all of us. He is the commonwealth of all humanity.

    We are all Leon.
    No! I'm Leon!!!....
    I'm not.
    That's what Byronic said...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    ydoethur said:

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    How that must cheer your little dark heart....
    It worries me greatly. We could have a humanitarian catastrophe in ukraine this winter...yet both sides have rigid negotiating positions
    What negotiating position do you suggest Ukraine adopt?

    It's going to have to be more or less (probably less) the 2014 borders because the Ukrainians aren't going all the way to Moscow (or even Rostov) and the Russians aren't going all the way to Kiev.
  • ydoethur said:

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    How that must cheer your little dark heart....
    It worries me greatly. We could have a humanitarian catastrophe in ukraine this winter...yet both sides have rigid negotiating positions
    What negotiating position do you suggest Ukraine adopt?

    Bearing in mind, they have been invaded for no obvious reason by a neighbour led by a man who is clearly one sandwich short of a picnic and who has broken every single treaty he's ever signed.
    Firstly zelensky should abandon his claims on Crimea...thats a start
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    How that must cheer your little dark heart....
    It worries me greatly. We could have a humanitarian catastrophe in ukraine this winter...yet both sides have rigid negotiating positions
    What negotiating position do you suggest Ukraine adopt?

    It's going to have to be more or less (probably less) the 2014 borders because the Ukrainians aren't going all the way to Moscow (or even Rostov) and the Russians aren't going all the way to Kiev.
    So basically, Russians to withdraw from Ukraine?

    I think that's a sound negotiating position. I'm sure the Ukrainians would be happy with that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    edited October 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    How that must cheer your little dark heart....
    It worries me greatly. We could have a humanitarian catastrophe in ukraine this winter...yet both sides have rigid negotiating positions
    What negotiating position do you suggest Ukraine adopt?

    Bearing in mind, they have been invaded for no obvious reason by a neighbour led by a man who is clearly one sandwich short of a picnic and who has broken every single treaty he's ever signed.
    Firstly zelensky should abandon his claims on Crimea...thats a start
    Why?

    PS - Incidentally, Zelensky has no claim on Crimea. We're talking about Ukraine not a personal fiefdom.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    How that must cheer your little dark heart....
    It worries me greatly. We could have a humanitarian catastrophe in ukraine this winter...yet both sides have rigid negotiating positions
    What negotiating position do you suggest Ukraine adopt?

    It's going to have to be more or less (probably less) the 2014 borders because the Ukrainians aren't going all the way to Moscow (or even Rostov) and the Russians aren't going all the way to Kiev.
    Yes agreed and rhetoric needs to be toned down on zelenskys side...we cant do anything about putin
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Farooq said:

    Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say

    He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring

    Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK

    https://twitter.com/Heachy_1979/status/1584937475985723392?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ

    Let me be the first to say you're a mentalist
    It is a hypothesis others are putting forward that Sunak is an intelligence asset. Key to it is noone remembers him from his time at Stanford..
    It is a hypothesis others are putting forward that China are going to forget Taiwan for a while - and instead take a bloody great big chunk of Russia, now that Ukraine has destroyed most of Russia's ability to stop them.

    How's your Mandarin?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    Methinks Chris Heaton will be in receipt of a PB ban within hours.

    For all the so called Libertarian facade of the site

    Its not really
  • Its easy here in the west to be warmongereres

    But think of the poor children in ukraine suffering and dying in the cold this winter...lets have some empathy for them
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph

    Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.

    The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis. 

    “We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table. 

    “But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”

    How that must cheer your little dark heart....
    It worries me greatly. We could have a humanitarian catastrophe in ukraine this winter...yet both sides have rigid negotiating positions
    What negotiating position do you suggest Ukraine adopt?

    It's going to have to be more or less (probably less) the 2014 borders because the Ukrainians aren't going all the way to Moscow (or even Rostov) and the Russians aren't going all the way to Kiev.
    Yes agreed and rhetoric needs to be toned down on zelenskys side...we cant do anything about putin
    His rhetoric is that Russia should withdraw from Ukraine, stop murdering Ukrainians and refrain from destroying all their infrastructure.

    You've just said that was a sound negotiating position.

    So why would he need to tone down his rhetoric?
This discussion has been closed.