The thing that depresses me most about some (although far from all leavers) is the constant claim that Brexit is done and give credit to Boris for doing so. We have left but Brexit isn't done. Just look at NI for proof of that. This even goes to the extent that @Driver (sp) repeatedly uses the fact that he doesn't have an MEP that Brexit is done. Honestly what did they think being in the EU was? Just MEPs and Burgundy passports or maybe a little more.
Hopefully going forward we tidy up the mess and that doesn't mean rejoining but getting Brexit done properly.
I think this is just Brexit meaning different things to different people. To mean Brexit IS done, because we have formally left the EU, no longer pay money in, no longer have the benefits of membership and no longer have an open work market for every member of an EU state. So for me Brexit is done. Of course the end state is still a work in progress, but it ALWAYS will be. We have have a relationship with Europe since the Stone Age. Different governments at different times will be closer to or further away from the EU. We may end up in the EEA, or even ultimately rejoin. Or the EU may collapse, or shrink. Difficult to say.
As an example when was WW2 over? VJ Day? Or when rationing stopped in the U.K? Or when we finally stopped paying off our war debts? Do you see the parallel?
Hi @turbtobbs. I would agree with you if it was clearly a misunderstanding over the meaning of words, but when this arises and you get in a discussion it clearly isn't (see Drivers posts). Boris made clear statements about NI and Brexit. He lied. None of it has happened. It's not done.
Also now we have spectacularly binned Singapore on Thames (which although I disagreed with was a logical direction) what on earth is the point of Brexit (as we have negotiated it) from an economic stand point. We have gone back to where were but with a whole lot more barriers to trade.
PS Yes there will always be tidying up, but this isn't just tidying up.
(1) We are not rejoining (2) We are not rejoining (3) It is possible we will have a closer relationship with the EU in future (3a) We are not rejoining
It's about learning to live with your mistake, or in the case of half of us,learning to live with other people's mistake. Once you have eliminated your best option you start rejecting your most damaging alternatives.
So Britain's destiny is Vassal State, I believe.. It takes a long time for people to accept that.
It will never be "vassal state" because Britain's raw geopolitical power is equal to or surpasses the top two EU members on their level, and that will tell regardless of the formal treaty relationships that have been established.
Were we an Ireland, Belgium or Denmark I'd agree with you.
I find that astoundingly optimistic. It might have been true 50 years ago, but compare the British armed forces with some other nations and consider the rate of change of position in the table. At the current rate of failure to replace or modernise kit the UK soon won't have a useable army. As for the navy, the Conservative obsession with a Royal Yacht was distinctly unhelpful, not least because the RY would require the almost permanent detachment of a frigate to escort it (as, for instance, the Battle-class destroyer HMS Solebay did for HMY Britannia)>
I think I'm one of the most robust posters on here in consistently arguing for higher defence spending.
But, there are only two really serious defence players in Europe: us and the French.
The Polish Army is on an upwards trajectory. Perhaps a limited expeditionary capability, but I think it's plausible that the two strongest land armies in Europe by 2030 will be Poland's and Ukraine's. This may be more of a crisis of identity for the French than for us, but imagine the effect it might have on US foreign policy priorities.
It's notable that, although we've been enthusiastic supporters of Ukraine, Britain hasn't had all that much decent kit to contribute. Where we've done best seems to be in stumping up cash to help get hold of odds and ends from elsewhere.
You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
UFOs is my favourite of his.
Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.
Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
He was on here as early as that? I think I joined in 2010 or thereabouts.
Yes. I turned up in the first few days. I may actually be the longest-serving PBer, unless some posted on the inaugural posts and are still about and posting?
I’m pretty sure that Sean turned up within the first six months. Knowing his penchant for pseudonyms he may well have been around from the beginning too.
(1) We are not rejoining (2) We are not rejoining (3) It is possible we will have a closer relationship with the EU in future (3a) We are not rejoining
It's about learning to live with your mistake, or in the case of half of us,learning to live with other people's mistake. Once you have eliminated your best option you start rejecting your most damaging alternatives.
So Britain's destiny is Vassal State, I believe.. It takes a long time for people to accept that.
It will never be "vassal state" because Britain's raw geopolitical power is equal to or surpasses the top two EU members on their level, and that will tell regardless of the formal treaty relationships that have been established.
Were we an Ireland, Belgium or Denmark I'd agree with you.
I find that astoundingly optimistic. It might have been true 50 years ago, but compare the British armed forces with some other nations and consider the rate of change of position in the table. At the current rate of failure to replace or modernise kit the UK soon won't have a useable army. As for the navy, the Conservative obsession with a Royal Yacht was distinctly unhelpful, not least because the RY would require the almost permanent detachment of a frigate to escort it (as, for instance, the Battle-class destroyer HMS Solebay did for HMY Britannia)>
I think I'm one of the most robust posters on here in consistently arguing for higher defence spending.
But, there are only two really serious defence players in Europe: us and the French.
In terms of land Army the Poles are seriously upping their game.
I think with respect that if you lived in the UK you'd possibly have a different perspective on this. It's a shitshow and most of us now realise it.
Nevertheless, it is patently and obviously true.
The UK will not seek readmission to the EU in your or my lifetime, and even if they did (which they won't), they wouldn't take us.
Really, the more assertive you are the less impressed I am with you stating it. You've provided no backing except a strident viewpoint.
It's perfectly plausible.
I mentioned a week or two back that when we have a new Labour Government, the mood will continue to change. Quite significantly so. And in those circumstances the pressures to rejoin will increase further, especially if we continue to struggle economically outside of the bloc. I could see a referendum to rejoin being part of Labour's second term in office, assuming they have one.
Remember too that with every passing year and month, more of the Brexit demographic dies. Literally.
Happy to actually have some money on this if you like:
Full Fat Membership of the EU by 2032, I'll give you 10-1.
Your call.
Ha! So now your 'never in our lifetimes' has shrunk to 9 years and to 'Full Fat Membership.'
That's a massive moving of the goalposts.
I said that: 'If the UK continues to struggle economically then the pressure to rejoin will probably become irresistible. I can see a referendum to rejoin in the next 20 years as being plausible.'
I'd go back to your original assertion, endlessly repeated, that it will never happen, then qualified by 'never happen in our lifetimes'.
I think you're missing the mood on this Robert. Not just anecdotally either. Polling.
So, that’s just a long winded way of saying no to Robert’s bet.
Alternatively, RCS1000 going from 0% chance in our lifetimes, to 10-1 in 10 years is either offering odds so miserly it would make the greediest bookie blush, or he's effectively admitting his other categorical statements were wrong. Only an idiot would take that bet.
What about 1000-1 on Britain becoming a full member by 2040?
He can hardly offer a bit fifty years hence.
Heathener is being disingenuous.,she should take the bet.
I would be in favour of re-joining the EU (since I was a Remain voter) if there was a way of doing it without insulting the 17.4 million people who voted Leave. But there isn't.
Why on earth would the EU allow us back in? It would be like, having got rid of the bullying and antisocial neighbours from your last house party, and cleaned up the mess, inviting them to your next party.
We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):
Lab 51.4% (-1.6) Con 24.3% (+2.9) LD 8.9% (-0.7) Ref 5.2% (+1.2) SNP 4.4% (+0.4) Grn 4.3% (+0.2)
In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.
How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.
they should have picked Boris
I agree, in terms of what it would’ve done for Con VI, however not in terms of its effect on public life.
My guesstimate is that we’d’ve seen a 10 point rise straight away, with the Tories maybe reaching a peak about the mid 30s. Sunak’s floor is lower, but if he does an exceptionally good job, I think his ceiling is higher that The Oaf’s.
One of last nights by-elections saw a significant decrease in the Tory vote; the other one didn’t. So far the national polls are way ahead of actual votes in terms of seeing the Tory vote disappear.
Much of the membership adored The Oaf. I wonder if that by-election where they did particularly poorly had lot of Boris-lovers in the local activist base, and they simply sat on their hands in a huff?
We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):
Lab 51.4% (-1.6) Con 24.3% (+2.9) LD 8.9% (-0.7) Ref 5.2% (+1.2) SNP 4.4% (+0.4) Grn 4.3% (+0.2)
In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.
How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.
Surely if this doesn't work, they *might* have the brains to realise that changing leader again isn't the best option.
All the polling suggests that Sunak isn't anything like as unpopular as the party, so if he can't drag them up, who can? Considering that another leadership election is likely to add to the overall negative opinion of the Conservative party, you'd need someone with god-like abilities.
Clearly the only person able to absolutely shake things up is Johnson, and all the polling suggests he doesn't have that magic anymore.
I can see reluctant acceptance, and maybe a little hope that a random event close to the election will change fortunes.
But it seems many of Scotland’s MSPs know better than Sinead. They also know better than Dr Hilary Cass, whose interim review into gender identity services in England led to the closure of the Tavistock clinic, which provided the same services as Sandyford.
The know better than NHS England who this week issued guidance warning medics that most children identifying as transgender are going through a “transient phase”. And they think they know better than those desperate parents looking for moral and practical support, only to be told they are bigots.
I'm reminded of the "won't someone think of the children" copy from the tabloids when trying to defend Section 28. Happy days.
Meanwhile, on the substance, you reject both the interim Cass review and the proposed NHS England guidelines, and are totally fine for Sandyford to “carry on castrating” on the basis of very limited supporting evidence, as their own clinicians admit?
This was a fun poll that's being quoted by either side to prove whatever they want, because they have exceptionally teensy numbers for both "rejoin" and "brexit as it actually exists". The way they get these numbers is by giving the voters multiple types of unicorn, including the epically vague option of "in a new kind of association with the EU unlike anything we know today".
Does that new kind of association happen to involve cake by any chance?
Classic HY to comb through a batch of polling stats that show most people now wanting a pragmatic, closer and positive relationship with the EU, including a good chunk of former leave voters, and pick out the one figure that can be presented to suggest the opposite.
A standard Mini Franco post follows this blueprint.
71% of housewives in East Lancashire and 81% in Hertfordshire expressed an interest in the concept of exotic ice-creams. Only 8% in Hertfordshire and 14% in Lancashire expressed positive hostility, whilst 5% expressed latent hostility. In Hertfordshire, 96% of the 50% who formed 20% of consumer spending were in favour. 0.6% told us where we could put our exotic ice creams.
You forgot the epic one - which, paraphrased, went something like "Rishi [sic, edit] is popular with Scots [sic] because he is more popular than Boris with Scots [sic]".
We aren't joining the Euro. Therefore it's very hard to see the UK rejoining the EU in its present form. Beyond that, it's very difficult to predict the future direction of travel.
The EU is an utterly dysfunctional political body that can muddle through only by allowing a small elite to effectively run the show, and is riven with economic tensions that seem to be getting more rather less acute. There are all sorts of possibilities, and they should include scenarios where the EU starts to fragment further with the possibility of the UK joining a loose political association which includes one or more other former EU states, just as much as other possibilities involving rowing back on Brexit to some degree.
you describe teh dysfunctional UK and try to project it as teh EU, incredible and perfectly highlights why England is Fcuked and taking us down wit hit. Led by donkeys right enough and more Billy No Mates than ever.
I value my country's independence. You don't. It's time that you changed the question on the referendum that you want. Leaving the UK in order to rejoin the EU is not voting for independence.
But it seems many of Scotland’s MSPs know better than Sinead. They also know better than Dr Hilary Cass, whose interim review into gender identity services in England led to the closure of the Tavistock clinic, which provided the same services as Sandyford.
The know better than NHS England who this week issued guidance warning medics that most children identifying as transgender are going through a “transient phase”. And they think they know better than those desperate parents looking for moral and practical support, only to be told they are bigots.
I'm reminded of the "won't someone think of the children" copy from the tabloids when trying to defend Section 28. Happy days.
Meanwhile, on the substance, you reject both the interim Cass review and the proposed NHS England guidelines, and are totally fine for Sandyford to “carry on castrating” on the basis of very limited supporting evidence, as their own clinicians admit?
Some folk sure are happily muddling statutory registration of gender, clinical standards, and evidence-based medicine and approval of treatments on that basis.
I would be in favour of re-joining the EU (since I was a Remain voter) if there was a way of doing it without insulting the 17.4 million people who voted Leave. But there isn't.
So Labour should not win the next election because that would be an insult to all the Red Wall Boris voters.
We aren't joining the Euro. Therefore it's very hard to see the UK rejoining the EU in its present form. Beyond that, it's very difficult to predict the future direction of travel.
The EU is an utterly dysfunctional political body that can muddle through only by allowing a small elite to effectively run the show, and is riven with economic tensions that seem to be getting more rather less acute. There are all sorts of possibilities, and they should include scenarios where the EU starts to fragment further with the possibility of the UK joining a loose political association which includes one or more other former EU states, just as much as other possibilities involving rowing back on Brexit to some degree.
you describe teh dysfunctional UK and try to project it as teh EU, incredible and perfectly highlights why England is Fcuked and taking us down wit hit. Led by donkeys right enough and more Billy No Mates than ever.
I value my country's independence. You don't. It's time that you changed the question on the referendum that you want. Leaving the UK in order to rejoin the EU is not voting for independence.
A lot more independent than being a colony.
Now, now you'll upset them - they are bears of little brain who can't grasp the notion that the Scottish legal and political system is 100% under the ultimate control of Westminster (whatever devolution arrangements they have in place at the moment).
Rcs on Musk: “I wish him well, and I'm sure he'll do a better job than the previous owners, but I suspect it will never pay back the $44bn.”
I suspect this comment is going to look quite amusing in a few years. Musk was drawing up plans for the “everything app” way back in his PayPal days and before Wechat even existed. He bought the x.com brand years ago and has had it sat there doing nothing ever since. Waiting for something.
The market timing of his acquisition was poor certainly. But I reckon he’s got to the place where a lot of the heavy lifting from him at Tesla is done, it’s on a self sustaining path now to fast expanding cashflow growth. SpaceX still has hurdles to cross to be sure with Starship but the satellite business is close to reaching sufficient scale to take the company’s valuation to another next level, which should mean the financial means for it to act as the bus to Mars are secure, even if there are crinkles to iron out on what to do upon arrival!
So he’s decided to spend more time on the thing he gave most headspace to early in his career, before he was eased out of PayPal.
Well, we'll see.
But here's why I am sceptical:
(1) There is (effectively) no Apple in China. Everyone is on Android, and there's no dominant handset software provider. You can do the "Everything App" in China, because there's no handset lockin. To do it in the West, the "everything app" has to fit around Apple's plans. And Apple are bastards.
(2) Inertia is a powerful thing. And real innovation tends to come from smaller companies. Yes, people will go to Twitter (or pb.com) because that's what they've always done. But something new and killer... well if I had a killer app idea, I'd quit and launch it myself. Musk may have that killer app idea... but he also may not.
(3) There's no cashflow to milk at Twitter. And the cost of maintaining the platform is non-trivial. Sure - as I said - I reckon he'll do better than previous owners. But to make the $5bn/year post tax necessary to ultimately justify the price, he needs to probably triple sales, while holding costs flat. In a business which is losing, not gaining, relevance.
(4) Musk himself. Not only is he becoming increasingly Marmite; he might find himself in regulatory difficulties, particularly in Europe.
Tesla feels less and less like an aspirational brand and more like a signal to the world that you're a Musk simp.
I’ve been catching up with the Elon Musk Show. Not the least disturbing thing about Muskism is the adulatory grovelling sent his way by employees, some media and even run of the mill punters, and the way he laps it up. Creepy af and it surely can’t end well.
(1) We are not rejoining (2) We are not rejoining (3) It is possible we will have a closer relationship with the EU in future (3a) We are not rejoining
It's about learning to live with your mistake, or in the case of half of us,learning to live with other people's mistake. Once you have eliminated your best option you start rejecting your most damaging alternatives.
So Britain's destiny is Vassal State, I believe.. It takes a long time for people to accept that.
It will never be "vassal state" because Britain's raw geopolitical power is equal to or surpasses the top two EU members on their level, and that will tell regardless of the formal treaty relationships that have been established.
Were we an Ireland, Belgium or Denmark I'd agree with you.
I find that astoundingly optimistic. It might have been true 50 years ago, but compare the British armed forces with some other nations and consider the rate of change of position in the table. At the current rate of failure to replace or modernise kit the UK soon won't have a useable army. As for the navy, the Conservative obsession with a Royal Yacht was distinctly unhelpful, not least because the RY would require the almost permanent detachment of a frigate to escort it (as, for instance, the Battle-class destroyer HMS Solebay did for HMY Britannia)>
I think I'm one of the most robust posters on here in consistently arguing for higher defence spending.
But, there are only two really serious defence players in Europe: us and the French.
In terms of land Army the Poles are seriously upping their game.
And that report you posted (thanks - haven't had time to read it fully) remarked on the Germans ditto.
(1) We are not rejoining (2) We are not rejoining (3) It is possible we will have a closer relationship with the EU in future (3a) We are not rejoining
It's about learning to live with your mistake, or in the case of half of us,learning to live with other people's mistake. Once you have eliminated your best option you start rejecting your most damaging alternatives.
So Britain's destiny is Vassal State, I believe.. It takes a long time for people to accept that.
It will never be "vassal state" because Britain's raw geopolitical power is equal to or surpasses the top two EU members on their level, and that will tell regardless of the formal treaty relationships that have been established.
Were we an Ireland, Belgium or Denmark I'd agree with you.
LOL, Mr Jingo personified
I thought I might have spotted Casino in Tesco the other day.
We aren't joining the Euro. Therefore it's very hard to see the UK rejoining the EU in its present form. Beyond that, it's very difficult to predict the future direction of travel.
The EU is an utterly dysfunctional political body that can muddle through only by allowing a small elite to effectively run the show, and is riven with economic tensions that seem to be getting more rather less acute. There are all sorts of possibilities, and they should include scenarios where the EU starts to fragment further with the possibility of the UK joining a loose political association which includes one or more other former EU states, just as much as other possibilities involving rowing back on Brexit to some degree.
you describe teh dysfunctional UK and try to project it as teh EU, incredible and perfectly highlights why England is Fcuked and taking us down wit hit. Led by donkeys right enough and more Billy No Mates than ever.
I value my country's independence. You don't. It's time that you changed the question on the referendum that you want. Leaving the UK in order to rejoin the EU is not voting for independence.
A lot more independent than being a colony.
Now, now you'll upset them - they are bears of little brain who can't grasp the notion that the Scottish legal and political system is 100% under the ultimate control of Westminster (whatever devolution arrangements they have in place at the moment).
Next we will get the mince that it is a democracy and we have an equal vote and can adjust our own income tax ( reduce pocket money at same time )
This was a fun poll that's being quoted by either side to prove whatever they want, because they have exceptionally teensy numbers for both "rejoin" and "brexit as it actually exists". The way they get these numbers is by giving the voters multiple types of unicorn, including the epically vague option of "in a new kind of association with the EU unlike anything we know today".
Does that new kind of association happen to involve cake by any chance?
It does indeed, and a cake more delicious than anything you have ever tasted.
Monetary sterilisation is the right overall strategy but the US has notable advantages that we don’t.
It wouldn’t be right for me to comment in too much detail on these topics but rest assured that I never do anything without due and appropriate hesitation.
☺️
The right strategy to acheive what outcome though? What does success look like?
To return the money supply back to appropriate levels and squeeze asset price inflation out of the system. A soft landing would be success.
As the front of todays 👁 puts it - new era of austerity, cuts and tax INCREASES (tax already highest for 80 years) to stop UK becoming third world country with national debt seen as junk bonds. Even NHS under microscope as only way to bring down interest rates and inflation.
If I have the gist of where you are coming from Lucky, you want to challenge what is being presented as inarguable? You are right to.
Where’s it coming from, whose putting it about that all this is true? We never heard of black holes and austerity to solve deficit from the lips of PM Boris Johnson, nor heard it from Truss or Sunak during their long election campaign. Where has it suddenly come from?
Did Truss create all this problem with one budget now reversed? 🤔
We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):
Lab 51.4% (-1.6) Con 24.3% (+2.9) LD 8.9% (-0.7) Ref 5.2% (+1.2) SNP 4.4% (+0.4) Grn 4.3% (+0.2)
In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.
How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.
they should have picked Boris
I agree, in terms of what it would’ve done for Con VI, however not in terms of its effect on public life.
My guesstimate is that we’d’ve seen a 10 point rise straight away, with the Tories maybe reaching a peak about the mid 30s. Sunak’s floor is lower, but if he does an exceptionally good job, I think his ceiling is higher that The Oaf’s.
One of last nights by-elections saw a significant decrease in the Tory vote; the other one didn’t. So far the national polls are way ahead of actual votes in terms of seeing the Tory vote disappear.
The Wednesbury South was a change versus May 2022. Make sure you're taking into account the timing of the previous result in your analysis.
(1) We are not rejoining (2) We are not rejoining (3) It is possible we will have a closer relationship with the EU in future (3a) We are not rejoining
It's about learning to live with your mistake, or in the case of half of us,learning to live with other people's mistake. Once you have eliminated your best option you start rejecting your most damaging alternatives.
So Britain's destiny is Vassal State, I believe.. It takes a long time for people to accept that.
It will never be "vassal state" because Britain's raw geopolitical power is equal to or surpasses the top two EU members on their level, and that will tell regardless of the formal treaty relationships that have been established.
Were we an Ireland, Belgium or Denmark I'd agree with you.
I find that astoundingly optimistic. It might have been true 50 years ago, but compare the British armed forces with some other nations and consider the rate of change of position in the table. At the current rate of failure to replace or modernise kit the UK soon won't have a useable army. As for the navy, the Conservative obsession with a Royal Yacht was distinctly unhelpful, not least because the RY would require the almost permanent detachment of a frigate to escort it (as, for instance, the Battle-class destroyer HMS Solebay did for HMY Britannia)>
I think I'm one of the most robust posters on here in consistently arguing for higher defence spending.
But, there are only two really serious defence players in Europe: us and the French.
Also Turkey, Poland, Russia and (apparently) Ukraine.
You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
UFOs is my favourite of his.
Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.
Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
He is. He is so bitterly anti-woke that it probably helps to understand why. Here's a guy who wrote a bestselling memoir based on male conquests of women, something which 20 years ago worked. He built a meme around it.
But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.
He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.
I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
I toy with the idea that you are a joke created by Sean. The reference to the memoir with approximately correct date and roughly accurate summary is suspicious. On the other hand you never lapse into stylistic seanisms and I am not sure he would have the self discipline to get up early and post in character for two hours.
I genuinely don’t think he’s good enough to pull it off. Some PB’ers will remember Byronic, the first regeneration of the original account, who when it first appeared claimed to be a Remain voter living in Richmond. That cover story lasted only a handful of messages before it was quite obvious both the style and political opinions were as before.
There was an earlier one named after some Dark Ages British saint or mystic whose name I forget. I pride myself that I identified him after 2 or 3 posts, to much huffing & puffing about how unwelcoming this was to a new poster.
Do you trust politicians? Many people do not unless they see good evidence for why they should. And they may be correct. After 25 years of denying it was a political grouping first and foremost, they came round to saying it was always so, and we should have read the small print.
We have good relations with many of the countries - I went to European meetings (on the scientific side), and it was always cordial. But politics was always in the background. And it always will be.
Many smaller countries are happy with the economics benefits. Ireland is a good example. It is a worthy project, but there's no denying the political aspect looms large. Eventually, they'll come clean and become a united state. It makes a lot of sense once the degrees of nationalism are removed. But that's the difficulty. That pesky democracy.
Softly, softly, catchee monkey. Even if it means misleading people a little. Even if the aim is worthy?
That's ultimately what it boils down to and why it's not a realistic option for us.
This is where I don't quite understand Leavers. I've always thought of the UK as a pretty good model for the EU to follow. We're a united country, but we still have our separate football teams and what have you, and we're comfortable with a few anomalies, like Scotland's legal system, or banknotes, because we don't feel the need to fit into a perfect theoretical framework, we can middle along with some fudges.
So I thought that the British would be pretty comfortable with the EU's indeterminate status as a country/not a country. It's always felt like a natural extension of the way Britain is put together.
But it seems many of Scotland’s MSPs know better than Sinead. They also know better than Dr Hilary Cass, whose interim review into gender identity services in England led to the closure of the Tavistock clinic, which provided the same services as Sandyford.
The know better than NHS England who this week issued guidance warning medics that most children identifying as transgender are going through a “transient phase”. And they think they know better than those desperate parents looking for moral and practical support, only to be told they are bigots.
I'm reminded of the "won't someone think of the children" copy from the tabloids when trying to defend Section 28. Happy days.
Meanwhile, on the substance, you reject both the interim Cass review and the proposed NHS England guidelines, and are totally fine for Sandyford to “carry on castrating” on the basis of very limited supporting evidence, as their own clinicians admit?
Some folk sure are happily muddling statutory registration of gender, clinical standards, and evidence-based medicine and approval of treatments on that basis.
Muddling…..
However, Nicola Sturgeon is being a tad disingenuous when she echoes the slogan: transwomen are women. She and her spokeswoman, the justice secretary, Shona Robison, have insisted repeatedly that this reform will not in any way “confer new rights on trans people” and will not “diminish women's protections under the 2010 Equality Act”. This means that she does not, indeed cannot, subscribe to the dogma that trans women are women in a literal sense……
However, if transwomen can be excluded from single sex groups it means that transwomen are not literally female under the law. Otherwise how could they be excluded from such spaces on the basis of their sex? The only way that a transwoman could be banned from a female only prison or a sporting event or a women's refuge is by reference to the biological sex they were born with.
No it isn't , it i sa single cubicle , locked and therefore no deviants can join you in there. Just an apologist thinking he is a smartarse when he isn't.
This was a fun poll that's being quoted by either side to prove whatever they want, because they have exceptionally teensy numbers for both "rejoin" and "brexit as it actually exists". The way they get these numbers is by giving the voters multiple types of unicorn, including the epically vague option of "in a new kind of association with the EU unlike anything we know today".
Not really. It's the Tony Blair Institute and the executive foreword is by the man himself.
Simply, a third want the single market, a third want a closer relationship but not that (think Richard Nabavi's article last month), and a third want the existing Brexit deal or more.
It doesn't point to Rejoin getting anywhere close in the next 10-15 years.
Now now we have talked about this before. When something in a poll looks idiotic (against known information) you need to question what you are reading. Look at the details.
Quoting stuff from the internet without due attention is daft. I mean you could post all sorts of rubbish from PB for instance (and that includes what I post), but it doesn't make it correct.
You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
UFOs is my favourite of his.
Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.
Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
He is. He is so bitterly anti-woke that it probably helps to understand why. Here's a guy who wrote a bestselling memoir based on male conquests of women, something which 20 years ago worked. He built a meme around it.
But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.
He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.
I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
For someone who is deeply embittered, tragic, “not as funny as he used to be”, “and “so bad I now skip his posts” it is AMAZING how much you guys talk about me. In fact you talk about me more than any other commenter. Which is pleasing
Off topic, I may have missed it but I’m surprised that there has been no celebration by PB Yoons of semi-deranged Unionist blogger Effie Deans being promoted to the Premier League of reactionary fruitcakery, the Spectator. Surely a moment to glory in!
Link below for anyone desperate to view her lustrous pearls of wisdom.
Do you trust politicians? Many people do not unless they see good evidence for why they should. And they may be correct. After 25 years of denying it was a political grouping first and foremost, they came round to saying it was always so, and we should have read the small print.
We have good relations with many of the countries - I went to European meetings (on the scientific side), and it was always cordial. But politics was always in the background. And it always will be.
Many smaller countries are happy with the economics benefits. Ireland is a good example. It is a worthy project, but there's no denying the political aspect looms large. Eventually, they'll come clean and become a united state. It makes a lot of sense once the degrees of nationalism are removed. But that's the difficulty. That pesky democracy.
Softly, softly, catchee monkey. Even if it means misleading people a little. Even if the aim is worthy?
That's ultimately what it boils down to and why it's not a realistic option for us.
Why is it a realistic option for all those other European countries then? Do they misunderstand it? Have they not yet seen the light?
Or is *our* sovereignty of a stronger hue than theirs, more precious, such that it cannot be pooled to the same extent?
Their geopolitics and economies are different - their trade is overwhelmingly with the European continent, their security is contingent upon open borders and shared sovereignty with their neighbours upon rhe continent and they have more fluid national identities and a commensurately stronger European cultural one.
Britain does not. We face several ways at once - including, culturally, far more to the anglosphere - and our interests are much more complex: global and European at the same time, independent and disparate.
You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
UFOs is my favourite of his.
Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.
Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
He is. He is so bitterly anti-woke that it probably helps to understand why. Here's a guy who wrote a bestselling memoir based on male conquests of women, something which 20 years ago worked. He built a meme around it.
But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.
He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.
I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
For someone who is deeply embittered, tragic, “not as funny as he used to be”, “and “so bad I now skip his posts” it is AMAZING how much you guys talk about me. In fact you talk about me more than any other commenter. Which is pleasing
Being talked about is not necessarily a good thing
If we were to rejoin the capitalist hegemony that is the EU, then at least we would get to enjoy the benefits of the common currency and Schengen.
A partial compensation for the silly flag, anthem and preening unelected nobodies flitting between Brussels and Strasbourg on the public purse.
The most likely outcome would be we'd simply go back to blaming the EU for all our problems all over again, rather than Brexit, and get increasingly frustrated by the federal integrationist initiatives from the European Commission from the likes of Ursula Von der Leyer, which would dominate domestic political conversation all over again, requiring UK government to respond, and not be popular.
We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):
Lab 51.4% (-1.6) Con 24.3% (+2.9) LD 8.9% (-0.7) Ref 5.2% (+1.2) SNP 4.4% (+0.4) Grn 4.3% (+0.2)
In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.
How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.
they should have picked Boris
I agree, in terms of what it would’ve done for Con VI, however not in terms of its effect on public life.
My guesstimate is that we’d’ve seen a 10 point rise straight away, with the Tories maybe reaching a peak about the mid 30s. Sunak’s floor is lower, but if he does an exceptionally good job, I think his ceiling is higher that The Oaf’s.
One of last nights by-elections saw a significant decrease in the Tory vote; the other one didn’t. So far the national polls are way ahead of actual votes in terms of seeing the Tory vote disappear.
The Wednesbury South was a change versus May 2022. Make sure you're taking into account the timing of the previous result in your analysis.
The Tories got 42% in the ward in 2021 and 2022, winning the second place seat in 2021, their best performance here since 2008/9 the only other time this millenium they were competitive. So they remain high end of their recent form in this particular ward. Long Eaton was a far worse result of course, vote shares changing in line with this weeks average polling compared to GE 19 funnily enough. Overall in the last month the Tories have done pretty poorly generally but nowhere near as badly as national polling
Rcs on Musk: “I wish him well, and I'm sure he'll do a better job than the previous owners, but I suspect it will never pay back the $44bn.”
I suspect this comment is going to look quite amusing in a few years. Musk was drawing up plans for the “everything app” way back in his PayPal days and before Wechat even existed. He bought the x.com brand years ago and has had it sat there doing nothing ever since. Waiting for something.
The market timing of his acquisition was poor certainly. But I reckon he’s got to the place where a lot of the heavy lifting from him at Tesla is done, it’s on a self sustaining path now to fast expanding cashflow growth. SpaceX still has hurdles to cross to be sure with Starship but the satellite business is close to reaching sufficient scale to take the company’s valuation to another next level, which should mean the financial means for it to act as the bus to Mars are secure, even if there are crinkles to iron out on what to do upon arrival!
So he’s decided to spend more time on the thing he gave most headspace to early in his career, before he was eased out of PayPal.
Well, we'll see.
But here's why I am sceptical:
(1) There is (effectively) no Apple in China. Everyone is on Android, and there's no dominant handset software provider. You can do the "Everything App" in China, because there's no handset lockin. To do it in the West, the "everything app" has to fit around Apple's plans. And Apple are bastards.
(2) Inertia is a powerful thing. And real innovation tends to come from smaller companies. Yes, people will go to Twitter (or pb.com) because that's what they've always done. But something new and killer... well if I had a killer app idea, I'd quit and launch it myself. Musk may have that killer app idea... but he also may not.
(3) There's no cashflow to milk at Twitter. And the cost of maintaining the platform is non-trivial. Sure - as I said - I reckon he'll do better than previous owners. But to make the $5bn/year post tax necessary to ultimately justify the price, he needs to probably triple sales, while holding costs flat. In a business which is losing, not gaining, relevance.
(4) Musk himself. Not only is he becoming increasingly Marmite; he might find himself in regulatory difficulties, particularly in Europe.
Tesla feels less and less like an aspirational brand and more like a signal to the world that you're a Musk simp.
Was talking about this with my wife recently, in the context of all the wasted billions on the metaverse, and the relative lack of success of the other billionaire plaything rocket company, and we came to the reluctant conclusion that Musk is the best billionaire tech bro.
Not a very high bar, admittedly, but I think I'd feel better about handing over my money to pay for Starlink than to any of the others for anything. Not because I like Musk, but his companies do seem able to push the boundaries of what is possible in a way that is useful.
We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):
Lab 51.4% (-1.6) Con 24.3% (+2.9) LD 8.9% (-0.7) Ref 5.2% (+1.2) SNP 4.4% (+0.4) Grn 4.3% (+0.2)
In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.
How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.
Surely if this doesn't work, they *might* have the brains to realise that changing leader again isn't the best option.
All the polling suggests that Sunak isn't anything like as unpopular as the party, so if he can't drag them up, who can? Considering that another leadership election is likely to add to the overall negative opinion of the Conservative party, you'd need someone with god-like abilities.
Clearly the only person able to absolutely shake things up is Johnson, and all the polling suggests he doesn't have that magic anymore.
I can see reluctant acceptance, and maybe a little hope that a random event close to the election will change fortunes.
Sunak loses as many votes as he gains. He loses in the white working class but may gain a bit in the london professional class. As the economy gets worse i exoect the tories to flatline in the low to mid 20s
This was a fun poll that's being quoted by either side to prove whatever they want, because they have exceptionally teensy numbers for both "rejoin" and "brexit as it actually exists". The way they get these numbers is by giving the voters multiple types of unicorn, including the epically vague option of "in a new kind of association with the EU unlike anything we know today".
Not really. It's the Tony Blair Institute and the executive foreword is by the man himself.
Simply, a third want the single market, a third want a closer relationship but not that (think Richard Nabavi's article last month), and a third want the existing Brexit deal or more.
It doesn't point to Rejoin getting anywhere close in the next 10-15 years.
Where are you seeing 1/3 wanting the single market? I'm seeing 11% (figure 15). Then you have 17% and 19% respectively for two different shades of undermined middle-option-biased vague thing.
You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
UFOs is my favourite of his.
Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.
Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
He is. He is so bitterly anti-woke that it probably helps to understand why. Here's a guy who wrote a bestselling memoir based on male conquests of women, something which 20 years ago worked. He built a meme around it.
But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.
He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.
I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
For someone who is deeply embittered, tragic, “not as funny as he used to be”, “and “so bad I now skip his posts” it is AMAZING how much you guys talk about me. In fact you talk about me more than any other commenter. Which is pleasing
People talk more about Augusto Pinochet than they do about Arturo Alessandri. That's not necessarily a good thing.
Rcs on Musk: “I wish him well, and I'm sure he'll do a better job than the previous owners, but I suspect it will never pay back the $44bn.”
I suspect this comment is going to look quite amusing in a few years. Musk was drawing up plans for the “everything app” way back in his PayPal days and before Wechat even existed. He bought the x.com brand years ago and has had it sat there doing nothing ever since. Waiting for something.
The market timing of his acquisition was poor certainly. But I reckon he’s got to the place where a lot of the heavy lifting from him at Tesla is done, it’s on a self sustaining path now to fast expanding cashflow growth. SpaceX still has hurdles to cross to be sure with Starship but the satellite business is close to reaching sufficient scale to take the company’s valuation to another next level, which should mean the financial means for it to act as the bus to Mars are secure, even if there are crinkles to iron out on what to do upon arrival!
So he’s decided to spend more time on the thing he gave most headspace to early in his career, before he was eased out of PayPal.
Well, we'll see.
But here's why I am sceptical:
(1) There is (effectively) no Apple in China. Everyone is on Android, and there's no dominant handset software provider. You can do the "Everything App" in China, because there's no handset lockin. To do it in the West, the "everything app" has to fit around Apple's plans. And Apple are bastards.
(2) Inertia is a powerful thing. And real innovation tends to come from smaller companies. Yes, people will go to Twitter (or pb.com) because that's what they've always done. But something new and killer... well if I had a killer app idea, I'd quit and launch it myself. Musk may have that killer app idea... but he also may not.
(3) There's no cashflow to milk at Twitter. And the cost of maintaining the platform is non-trivial. Sure - as I said - I reckon he'll do better than previous owners. But to make the $5bn/year post tax necessary to ultimately justify the price, he needs to probably triple sales, while holding costs flat. In a business which is losing, not gaining, relevance.
(4) Musk himself. Not only is he becoming increasingly Marmite; he might find himself in regulatory difficulties, particularly in Europe.
Tesla feels less and less like an aspirational brand and more like a signal to the world that you're a Musk simp.
Was talking about this with my wife recently, in the context of all the wasted billions on the metaverse, and the relative lack of success of the other billionaire plaything rocket company, and we came to the reluctant conclusion that Musk is the best billionaire tech bro.
Not a very high bar, admittedly, but I think I'd feel better about handing over my money to pay for Starlink than to any of the others for anything. Not because I like Musk, but his companies do seem able to push the boundaries of what is possible in a way that is useful.
Yes Zuckerberg has arguably harmed rather than helped society with FB. Drunk on success he has gone down the dead end of the metaverse
We have now had 7 polls since Rishi Sunak took over. Here’s the average VI (compared to average VI in the last 7 polls under Truss):
Lab 51.4% (-1.6) Con 24.3% (+2.9) LD 8.9% (-0.7) Ref 5.2% (+1.2) SNP 4.4% (+0.4) Grn 4.3% (+0.2)
In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.
How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.
Surely if this doesn't work, they *might* have the brains to realise that changing leader again isn't the best option.
All the polling suggests that Sunak isn't anything like as unpopular as the party, so if he can't drag them up, who can? Considering that another leadership election is likely to add to the overall negative opinion of the Conservative party, you'd need someone with god-like abilities.
Clearly the only person able to absolutely shake things up is Johnson, and all the polling suggests he doesn't have that magic anymore.
I can see reluctant acceptance, and maybe a little hope that a random event close to the election will change fortunes.
Sunak loses as many votes as he gains. He loses in the white working class but may gain a bit in the london professional class. As the economy gets worse i exoect the tories to flatline in the low to mid 20s
You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
UFOs is my favourite of his.
Everyone has a Sean favourite. He really was genuinely extremely funny back in the early years, maybe about 2005-2008. He used to have me in stitches.
Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
He is. He is so bitterly anti-woke that it probably helps to understand why. Here's a guy who wrote a bestselling memoir based on male conquests of women, something which 20 years ago worked. He built a meme around it.
But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.
He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.
I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
I toy with the idea that you are a joke created by Sean. The reference to the memoir with approximately correct date and roughly accurate summary is suspicious. On the other hand you never lapse into stylistic seanisms and I am not sure he would have the self discipline to get up early and post in character for two hours.
I genuinely don’t think he’s good enough to pull it off. Some PB’ers will remember Byronic, the first regeneration of the original account, who when it first appeared claimed to be a Remain voter living in Richmond. That cover story lasted only a handful of messages before it was quite obvious both the style and political opinions were as before.
There was an earlier one named after some Dark Ages British saint or mystic whose name I forget. I pride myself that I identified him after 2 or 3 posts, to much huffing & puffing about how unwelcoming this was to a new poster.
Gosh, everyone's really agitated this morning. Chill, guys. It's nearly November and we've kept the heating off. Plus wind is doing OK if not amazingly well for power generation.
And if you need cheering up, here's a Jasper Carrott show. From 30 years ago but still incredibly fresh and funny.
I particularly enjoyed the escapades of the cat Lollipop.
Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say
He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring
Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK
Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say
He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring
Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK
Gosh, everyone's really agitated this morning. Chill, guys. It's nearly November and we've kept the heating off. Plus wind is doing OK if not amazingly well for power generation.
And if you need cheering up, here's a Jasper Carrott show. From 30 years ago but still incredibly fresh and funny.
I particularly enjoyed the escapades of the cat Lollipop.
Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph
Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.
The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis.
“We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table.
“But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”
ON topic I reckon it is highly plausible we will rejoin the SM, probably in some unique form, where both sides can claim a weird “victory”
I am with @rcs1000 on the more substantial issue. There is near-zero chance we will ever rejoin the political union as it stands. The idea of renouncing that much sovereignty will be anathematic and impossible to sell, especially in a referendum (which will be required)
Of course if the EU reforms to become some vibrant and truly democratic bloc that might change, but this seems unlikely
Note that other affluent countries on the periphery of the EU - Norway, Switzerland, Iceland - are completely opposed to joining, and if anything public sentiment goes the other way
I think with respect that if you lived in the UK you'd possibly have a different perspective on this. It's a shitshow and most of us now realise it.
Nevertheless, it is patently and obviously true.
The UK will not seek readmission to the EU in your or my lifetime, and even if they did (which they won't), they wouldn't take us.
Really, the more assertive you are the less impressed I am with you stating it. You've provided no backing except a strident viewpoint.
It's perfectly plausible.
I mentioned a week or two back that when we have a new Labour Government, the mood will continue to change. Quite significantly so. And in those circumstances the pressures to rejoin will increase further, especially if we continue to struggle economically outside of the bloc. I could see a referendum to rejoin being part of Labour's second term in office, assuming they have one.
Remember too that with every passing year and month, more of the Brexit demographic dies. Literally.
Happy to actually have some money on this if you like:
Full Fat Membership of the EU by 2032, I'll give you 10-1.
Your call.
Ha! So now your 'never in our lifetimes' has shrunk to 9 years and to 'Full Fat Membership.'
That's a massive moving of the goalposts.
I said that: 'If the UK continues to struggle economically then the pressure to rejoin will probably become irresistible. I can see a referendum to rejoin in the next 20 years as being plausible.'
I'd go back to your original assertion, endlessly repeated, that it will never happen, then qualified by 'never happen in our lifetimes'.
I think you're missing the mood on this Robert. Not just anecdotally either. Polling.
So, that’s just a long winded way of saying no to Robert’s bet.
Alternatively, RCS1000 going from 0% chance in our lifetimes, to 10-1 in 10 years is either offering odds so miserly it would make the greediest bookie blush, or he's effectively admitting his other categorical statements were wrong. Only an idiot would take that bet.
What about 1000-1 on Britain becoming a full member by 2040?
He can hardly offer a bit fifty years hence.
Heathener is being disingenuous.,she should take the bet.
2040 is in 50 years?
Heathener said a rejoin referendum within 20 years was plausible.
I think any bet to be settled in many years made on an anonymous forum is unrealistic.
I certainly wouldn't back rejoin within 10 years at 10-1, but isn't it also disingenuous to pretend that those odds are a fair reflection of "impossible within our lifetimes". I'd say rejoin within 25 years at anything above 30-1 would definitely be hypothetical value (assuming not having to stump up losing stake until bet is settled).
Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say
He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring
Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK
Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say
He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring
Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK
ON topic I reckon it is highly plausible we will rejoin the SM, probably in some unique form, where both sides can claim a weird “victory”
I am with @rcs1000 on the more substantial issue. There is near-zero chance we will ever rejoin the political union as it stands. The idea of renouncing that much sovereignty will be anathematic and impossible to sell, especially in a referendum (which will be required)
Of course if the EU reforms to become some vibrant and truly democratic bloc that might change, but this seems unlikely
Note that other affluent countries on the periphery of the EU - Norway, Switzerland, Iceland - are completely opposed to joining, and if anything public sentiment goes the other way
It rather depends what state the EU is in. If the EU gets through the shitstorm coming this winter and beyond it may be an attractive safe harbour to attach to in some form. If it goes all penniless rats in a sack then maybe not.
ON topic I reckon it is highly plausible we will rejoin the SM, probably in some unique form, where both sides can claim a weird “victory”
I am with @rcs1000 on the more substantial issue. There is near-zero chance we will ever rejoin the political union as it stands. The idea of renouncing that much sovereignty will be anathematic and impossible to sell, especially in a referendum (which will be required)
Of course if the EU reforms to become some vibrant and truly democratic bloc that might change, but this seems unlikely
Note that other affluent countries on the periphery of the EU - Norway, Switzerland, Iceland - are completely opposed to joining, and if anything public sentiment goes the other way
On the political union, I think the EU's mistake was not deepening the Union before broadening it. Compare with the US, where states of the Union all joined on (more or less) the same terms.
I think a two speed Union is the way to correct this. A handful of nations join in a deeper political union and, if others wish to join, they do so on those terms. Maybe it's only a handful who wish to join, but that would be a more stable approach imo.
We aren't joining the Euro. Therefore it's very hard to see the UK rejoining the EU in its present form. Beyond that, it's very difficult to predict the future direction of travel.
The EU is an utterly dysfunctional political body that can muddle through only by allowing a small elite to effectively run the show, and is riven with economic tensions that seem to be getting more rather less acute. There are all sorts of possibilities, and they should include scenarios where the EU starts to fragment further with the possibility of the UK joining a loose political association which includes one or more other former EU states, just as much as other possibilities involving rowing back on Brexit to some degree.
you describe teh dysfunctional UK and try to project it as teh EU, incredible and perfectly highlights why England is Fcuked and taking us down wit hit. Led by donkeys right enough and more Billy No Mates than ever.
I value my country's independence. You don't. It's time that you changed the question on the referendum that you want. Leaving the UK in order to rejoin the EU is not voting for independence.
A lot more independent than being a colony.
You no more live in a colony than I do. In fact I should be the one claiming to live in a colony, because where you live you have devolution and I have none. And you're not satisfied with that even though your party has 8% of the seats in the UK parliament after getting just 4% of the vote. That's in a real parliament which can properly hold the executive to account and make or break governments.
Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say
He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring
Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK
Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph
Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.
The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis.
“We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table.
“But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”
Something set on fire in Sevastopol naval base this morning. How will Putin reward the lackey who gives him that news?
Things looking bleak in Kyiv at the moment. This from the telegraph
Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.
The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis.
“We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table.
“But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”
Chris Heaton - bit of advice mate. You are moving too fast. Sunak an intelligence asset, Tucker Carlson warning on diesel, Ukrainians freezing to death. You are in danger of blowing your cover.
Interesting read on Rishi Sunak. This is what they say
He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring
Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK
It is a hypothesis others are putting forward that Sunak is an intelligence asset. Key to it is noone remembers him from his time at Stanford..
Yes yes "I'm just telling you what other people are saying"
Before next weekend you'll have used the term "clot shot", you'll have recommended that Ukraine surrender to Russia because Ukraine has always been a part of Russia, and you'll be have been banned from here.
Comments
Also now we have spectacularly binned Singapore on Thames (which although I disagreed with was a logical direction) what on earth is the point of Brexit (as we have negotiated it) from an economic stand point. We have gone back to where were but with a whole lot more barriers to trade.
PS Yes there will always be tidying up, but this isn't just tidying up.
It's notable that, although we've been enthusiastic supporters of Ukraine, Britain hasn't had all that much decent kit to contribute. Where we've done best seems to be in stumping up cash to help get hold of odds and ends from elsewhere.
I’m pretty sure that Sean turned up within the first six months. Knowing his penchant for pseudonyms he may well have been around from the beginning too.
Heathener is being disingenuous.,she should take the bet.
A partial compensation for the silly flag, anthem and preening unelected nobodies flitting between Brussels and Strasbourg on the public purse.
All the polling suggests that Sunak isn't anything like as unpopular as the party, so if he can't drag them up, who can? Considering that another leadership election is likely to add to the overall negative opinion of the Conservative party, you'd need someone with god-like abilities.
Clearly the only person able to absolutely shake things up is Johnson, and all the polling suggests he doesn't have that magic anymore.
I can see reluctant acceptance, and maybe a little hope that a random event close to the election will change fortunes.
I really don’t know how we’d cope without Father-land.
If I have the gist of where you are coming from Lucky, you want to challenge what is being presented as inarguable? You are right to.
Where’s it coming from, whose putting it about that all this is true? We never heard of black holes and austerity to solve deficit from the lips of PM Boris Johnson, nor heard it from Truss or Sunak during their long election campaign. Where has it suddenly come from?
Did Truss create all this problem with one budget now reversed? 🤔
Make sure you're taking into account the timing of the previous result in your analysis.
So I thought that the British would be pretty comfortable with the EU's indeterminate status as a country/not a country. It's always felt like a natural extension of the way Britain is put together.
However, Nicola Sturgeon is being a tad disingenuous when she echoes the slogan: transwomen are women. She and her spokeswoman, the justice secretary, Shona Robison, have insisted repeatedly that this reform will not in any way “confer new rights on trans people” and will not “diminish women's protections under the 2010 Equality Act”. This means that she does not, indeed cannot, subscribe to the dogma that trans women are women in a literal sense……
However, if transwomen can be excluded from single sex groups it means that transwomen are not literally female under the law. Otherwise how could they be excluded from such spaces on the basis of their sex? The only way that a transwoman could be banned from a female only prison or a sporting event or a women's refuge is by reference to the biological sex they were born with.
https://iainmacwhirter.substack.com/p/does-nicola-sturgeon-believe-transwomen
Phenomenal. The Elizabeth Line does this regularly, it used to be a miracle of timing, getting the Heathrow Express just right etc etc
I’m now an hour early for my flight (in terms of extra waiting time). I will have to factor this in, in future
Simply, a third want the single market, a third want a closer relationship but not that (think Richard Nabavi's article last month), and a third want the existing Brexit deal or more.
It doesn't point to Rejoin getting anywhere close in the next 10-15 years.
Quoting stuff from the internet without due attention is daft. I mean you could post all sorts of rubbish from PB for instance (and that includes what I post), but it doesn't make it correct.
Link below for anyone desperate to view her lustrous pearls of wisdom.
https://twitter.com/speccoffeehouse/status/1585511611590053889?s=61&t=OsFeBb7tl2_s9P2KS9TGlg
- their trade is overwhelmingly with the European continent, their security is contingent upon open borders and shared sovereignty with their neighbours upon rhe continent and they have more fluid national identities and a commensurately stronger European cultural one.
Britain does not. We face several ways at once - including, culturally, far more to the anglosphere - and our interests are much more complex: global and European at the same time, independent and disparate.
Long Eaton was a far worse result of course, vote shares changing in line with this weeks average polling compared to GE 19 funnily enough.
Overall in the last month the Tories have done pretty poorly generally but nowhere near as badly as national polling
Not a very high bar, admittedly, but I think I'd feel better about handing over my money to pay for Starlink than to any of the others for anything. Not because I like Musk, but his companies do seem able to push the boundaries of what is possible in a way that is useful.
https://twitter.com/JohnWil16959512/status/1586296541471395842/photo/1
That's not necessarily a good thing.
https://twitter.com/calvinrobinson/status/1585765630183198720?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ
Please keep it up. I will worry that my star is fading when you are NOT talking about me
They might need it when their appointment comes up in late middle age...
And welcome...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/28/asylum-seekers-uk-hotel-moves-home-office
I suspect you all want to sleep with me, secretly
And if you need cheering up, here's a Jasper Carrott show. From 30 years ago but still incredibly fresh and funny.
I particularly enjoyed the escapades of the cat Lollipop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOeLUqLYhTY&t=1904s
He has been tasked with first creating a financial crisis through printing billions with "furlough" then initiating the "solution" - e.g.a combination of CBDCs, digital IDs&social credit scoring
Thesis is Sunak is an intelligence asset sent to destroy the UK
https://twitter.com/Heachy_1979/status/1584937475985723392?s=20&t=tLZGUltZd4jXB7tumv6pcQ
We are all Leon.
Starmer had better keeping up Labour's game because 2024 is coming.
Other than that aren't you just sharing a room with a mirror and wash basins?
Ukrainians will freeze to death this winter if the West does not urgently send blankets and generators to keep them warm, Vitali Klitschko has said.
The 51-year-old mayor of Kyiv, and former heavyweight boxing champion of the world, told The Telegraph that increasing Russian attacks on power plants have left his country on the brink of a fresh humanitarian crisis.
“We are doing everything we can do to save the lives of our people and to protect them,” he said, banging his huge fists on the table.
“But this winter will definitely be a huge challenge for us.”
I am with @rcs1000 on the more substantial issue. There is near-zero chance we will ever rejoin the political union as it stands. The idea of renouncing that much sovereignty will be anathematic and impossible to sell, especially in a referendum (which will be required)
Of course if the EU reforms to become some vibrant and truly democratic bloc that might change, but this seems unlikely
Note that other affluent countries on the periphery of the EU - Norway, Switzerland, Iceland - are completely opposed to joining, and if anything public sentiment goes the other way
https://twitter.com/samanthamarika1/status/1586086467171860480?s=20&t=cNHCqIbB6h9jzrmgYmhntg
Heathener said a rejoin referendum within 20 years was plausible.
I think any bet to be settled in many years made on an anonymous forum is unrealistic.
I certainly wouldn't back rejoin within 10 years at 10-1, but isn't it also disingenuous to pretend that those odds are a fair reflection of "impossible within our lifetimes". I'd say rejoin within 25 years at anything above 30-1 would definitely be hypothetical value (assuming not having to stump up losing stake until bet is settled).
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1586287951155077120
Even the weather Gods hate Putin.
I think a two speed Union is the way to correct this. A handful of nations join in a deeper political union and, if others wish to join, they do so on those terms. Maybe it's only a handful who wish to join, but that would be a more stable approach imo.
So give him our regards for us.
https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1586286635708076032
Before next weekend you'll have used the term "clot shot", you'll have recommended that Ukraine surrender to Russia because Ukraine has always been a part of Russia, and you'll be have been banned from here.
We've seen you before.