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Let’s talk about Brexit – politicalbetting.com
Let’s talk about Brexit – politicalbetting.com
New from @IpsosUK: 51% of Brits think Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK.Just 22% think the impact has been positive. 22% say it has made no difference (the rest don't know).Net positive / negative is -29. Lowest in our series going back to GE2019. pic.twitter.com/YW4jd9rgRh
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(1) We are not rejoining
(2) We are not rejoining
(3) It is possible we will have a closer relationship with the EU in future
(3a) We are not rejoining
Stupidity.
Obduracy.
Scotland and NI won’t be hanging about, and will both be heartily welcomed into the European family again. Wales probably will, but won’t be having any say.
Several markets are based on wordings using “United Kingdom”, eg Hill’s “UK to be an EU Member State before 2026” (currently 33/1) What happens to punters’ stake money if and when the UK is dissolved? I presume the market is void.
The key player in English politics in the coming decade is the Labour Party, and for reasons unknown, they are terrified of their own shadow. There is no way they are going to embark on anything radical in any policy area whatsoever. It’ll be Managed Decline all the way with that bunch. Including European policy and trade policy. Still, better than Supercharged Decline under the sleazy Tories.
A lot more succinct than the original, your œuvre perfectly captures the England de nos jours.
Unless you're a complete ideological bigot it makes no sense to be outside the biggest trading bloc in the world.
I think with respect that if you lived in the UK you'd possibly have a different perspective on this. It's a shitshow and most of us now realise it.
The UK will not seek readmission to the EU in your or my lifetime, and even if they did (which they won't), they wouldn't take us.
I suspect this comment is going to look quite amusing in a few years. Musk was drawing up plans for the “everything app” way back in his PayPal days and before Wechat even existed. He bought the x.com brand years ago and has had it sat there doing nothing ever since. Waiting for something.
The market timing of his acquisition was poor certainly. But I reckon he’s got to the place where a lot of the heavy lifting from him at Tesla is done, it’s on a self sustaining path now to fast expanding cashflow growth. SpaceX still has hurdles to cross to be sure with Starship but the satellite business is close to reaching sufficient scale to take the company’s valuation to another next level, which should mean the financial means for it to act as the bus to Mars are secure, even if there are crinkles to iron out on what to do upon arrival!
So he’s decided to spend more time on the thing he gave most headspace to early in his career, before he was eased out of PayPal.
But we aren't rejoining the EU.
If the UK continues to struggle economically then the pressure to rejoin will probably become irresistible. I can see a referendum to rejoin in the next 20 years as being plausible.
It's perfectly plausible.
I mentioned a week or two back that when we have a new Labour Government, the mood will continue to change. Quite significantly so. And in those circumstances the pressures to rejoin will increase further, especially if we continue to struggle economically outside of the bloc. I could see a referendum to rejoin being part of Labour's second term in office, assuming they have one.
Remember too that with every passing year and month, more of the Brexit demographic dies. Literally.
Why do people still have this view of the eu as being some bastion of economic dynamism? Odd.
Peace.
Lab 51.4% (-1.6)
Con 24.3% (+2.9)
LD 8.9% (-0.7)
Ref 5.2% (+1.2)
SNP 4.4% (+0.4)
Grn 4.3% (+0.2)
In other words, not much change. Certainly not enough to calm Tory nerves.
How long will the party wait without an upswing before they become restless again? A month? Six months? Certainly not a year.
But here's why I am sceptical:
(1) There is (effectively) no Apple in China. Everyone is on Android, and there's no dominant handset software provider. You can do the "Everything App" in China, because there's no handset lockin. To do it in the West, the "everything app" has to fit around Apple's plans. And Apple are bastards.
(2) Inertia is a powerful thing. And real innovation tends to come from smaller companies. Yes, people will go to Twitter (or pb.com) because that's what they've always done. But something new and killer... well if I had a killer app idea, I'd quit and launch it myself. Musk may have that killer app idea... but he also may not.
(3) There's no cashflow to milk at Twitter. And the cost of maintaining the platform is non-trivial. Sure - as I said - I reckon he'll do better than previous owners. But to make the $5bn/year post tax necessary to ultimately justify the price, he needs to probably triple sales, while holding costs flat. In a business which is losing, not gaining, relevance.
Full Fat Membership of the EU by 2032, I'll give you 10-1.
Your call.
F1: shockingly close between Perez and Verstappen. Identical times in first practice, nine-thousandths apart in the second.
Edited extra bit: Betfair has 2023 title market up. Not betting on that (yet, anyway).
Under these circumstances to sit outside the largest trading bloc in the world simply makes no economic sense. A majority of British people now think the same.
The point is that Brexit was mainly a political, not an economic, choice. Which was fine when the garden was rosy. It ain't now.
https://twitter.com/ottojizzmark/status/1585983575476043776?s=46&t=_wdMxlr9Jrg7HAuND4zbfA
That's a massive moving of the goalposts.
I said that: 'If the UK continues to struggle economically then the pressure to rejoin will probably become irresistible. I can see a referendum to rejoin in the next 20 years as being plausible.'
I'd go back to your original assertion, endlessly repeated, that it will never happen, then qualified by 'never happen in our lifetimes'.
I think you're missing the mood on this Robert. Not just anecdotally either. Polling.
Right now Germany is no bastion of economic dynamism (nowhere is), but she is certainly a lot more dynamic than Little England.
Picking the data point for comparison is lots of fun.
I voted remain and support the EU, but wouldn't support rejoining. It has always been the case that the "Brexit opportunities" are mostly for the EU; it has the opportunity of fixing its problems and contradictions without Britain messing up the process. I just hope that they can make this happen, as there is a lot of work to do.
https://twitter.com/richkav/status/1585021940166955009?s=61&t=-_QCiLtrq2iOnjVNKSjnDQ
You do realise that all these hobby-horses are just his way of spotting squirrels while his beloved Tory party disappears down the plughole. He’s very, very good at it.
End of 2015, GBPEUR was around 1.35-40, and is now 1.17
It has been spouted on social media and being accepted as fact.
Brexit is a shit sandwich. However the claim is not correct.
https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1584441202576830464?s=61&t=-_QCiLtrq2iOnjVNKSjnDQ
Every single river in England is polluted beyond legal limits, and 86% are deemed not to be in “good ecological condition”.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/27/scrapping-farm-nature-payments-may-worsen-english-river-pollution-up-to-20
I’ll wait until it’s in ‘The Works’ for a quid or so.
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1586110969968676864?s=61&t=-_QCiLtrq2iOnjVNKSjnDQ
Oh.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19674520.fact-check-scotland-immune-sewage-waterways/
By then, a big chunk of the Leave vote will have departed this earthly realm. The politicians who pushed for it will have departed the scene. There will be new blood.
Now that’s just my opinion, but peering back over the wreckage of the last six years it seems very plausible to me. And if we’re at that stage anything could happen. And I think they would have us back. By that point we could well be begging to join the Euro, to be part of Schengen. Who knows?
We have none of the benefits Brexit promised, other than ‘sovereignty’. The recent economic turmoil wrought by Trussonomics has shown us how sovereign we really are. We have another damaging bout of austerity looming. We will have more of a population similar to me who were raised as EU citizens, who cherished their freedom of movement, who aren’t hamstrung by nostalgia for Empire, who weren’t around when it was falling apart.
Of course the real horror for Leavers is that if it turns out that the EU is delivering a better standard of living for its people, better services, with better protection for them through environmental regs and the rest, and here we continue to see increasing inequality, threadbare public services, all the rest that seems to be our fate. Maybe those faceless Brussels bureaucrats can deliver a better life for the majority of their people. And we’ll want to be part of it.
The British public increasingly see Brexit as a folly, and Rejoin polls well. Sooner or later it will be a serious prospect politically.
The economics makes a lot of sense for the UK in a multipolar world of competing trade blocs. The politics - surrendering democratic accountability and allowing a technocratic elite to manage our lives in perpetuity - never did.
Ulitmately people made the choice to be a little poorer but also freer, with greater accountability and localisation of the decision-making process. A decision our friends north of the border are always champing at the bit to make.
For example, the strongest support for rejoining is in Scotland, but as the EU have pointed out there isn’t a realistic pathway to Scotland rejoining in the foreseeable future even if it becomes independent.
The deal we had wasn’t perfect but was better than the demands that would be made for rejoining. The deal May got was an exceptionally good substitute.
Unfortunately Johnson and his dim witted acolytes like Raab blew the whole lot up and put us out of the EU on very bad terms.
And neither of the earlier options are now available for us but no others would be acceptable.
Last decade or so? Barely a hint of a smile. Really quite a tragic figure.
https://twitter.com/jamiesusskind/status/1585740150713229312?s=46&t=_hm6YDVlrJ8AYBO6BWxL-A
If they offered the status quo antebellum in a special treaty for the UK (i.e. what we had before, perhaps with some caveats on free movement) with a united EU27 position on it then i think such a referendum would be won.
If they offered "standard terms", which means signing up to the Euro, all of the charter of fundamental rights, and all crime and justice measures, then I think it wouldn't - although things are so polarised in the UK now that such a vote could still get 40% in favour.
The EU are dogmatic and inflexible so I'd be almost certain they'd insist on the latter.
I think that's more likely and probably desirable.
He just to give brilliant insights whereas now much of it is repetitive or narcissistic.
For everyone except the EU, as it undermines their obsession with a federal superstate to which everything else including economic reality is subjugated.
So it will not happen.
I desperately hate that we left the EU, but the last thing British politics needs is to be dominated over an argument about rejoining the EU for the next couple of decades.
If we do rejoin the single market then that isn't an incremental step to rejoining the EU. It's a dead end that the majority will be happy with, at least at first. The economic benefits, but none of the extraneous political crap. Are most people really clamouring for membership of the CAP and CFP? But the constant harping on about EU laws being imposed on Britain against its will starts up again, this time with validity. I don't see it as a stable end state, especially as all the clamour to rejoin comes from a position of weakness and lack of self-respect.
This was the fundamental error of Britain's membership of the EU. It was a policy born of a lack of self-confidence, a determination that we couldn't cope alone and needed not to be left out. But every country would resent such an analysis, and once it had regained some self-confidence it would feel it no longer required the comfort blanket it had sought when it felt vulnerable.
Britain will only be secure in the EU when it decides to join with self-confidence. Out of a sense of how much it can contribute and the good that it can create, and of its own self-worth. The current campaign by rejoiners to make the case for British EU membership on the basis of British weakness is therefore entirely self-defeating.
There's a parallel here with arguments over Scottish Independence too.
I don't think that's pretty likely and is independent of the current generation of voters who voted for Brexit in 2016, so those who hope it will all change when "the Leavers die out" are clutching at straws.
What about 1000-1 on Britain becoming a full member by 2040?
Betting PostF1: backed Sainz at 7.5 to top qualifying, each way (third the odds top 2).
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2022.html
He was fastest in first practice, and beat Leclerc in qualifying at the circuit last year. Given the closeness of Verstappen and Perez to one another this could make both the full and no win outcomes more likely as there's a decent chance the Red Bulls will be right next to each other.
However, I don't see that credible version of Brexit as having any political support in the country. The political implosion of Trussism proved that. In which case we are just waiting for public opinion to catch up to the fact that Brexit is an economic failure. I think it is inevitable we will rejoin the single market. The public made a mistake with Brexit but we are a democracy and democracies can reverse their mistakes.
I also agree that the Tories might well change their view, and could well be the party to bring us back into the EU the second time around, like the first time. They are the ultimate political opportunists and realists.
'The UK will not seek readmission to the EU in your or my lifetime, and even if they did (which they won't), they wouldn't take us.'
That's about all that can be said, all that needs to be said on the subject.
There probably isn't a bigger Europhile on this Site than me and I have zero interest in rejoining, and zero expection that it will happen.
We have made our bed. Now we lie in it.
The other key point here is that this is not about rejoining the EU. That's a long way off at best. This is about dismantling the stupidity that is the Boris post-Brexit settlement, none of which was required by the referendum.
So if we want to fill billions of £££ back into the hole, we can normalise our trading relations with the EEA. Which Brexiteers screamed isn't proper Brexit. And will now have to admit has nothing to do with it.
The way I would do it is as follows. The stake of the bet is £x, uprated by British nominal GDP growth, every year. If Britain is not a member of the EU, defined as having elected MEPs with full voting rights in the European Parliament at 23:59 UTC on December 31st each year, then @Heathener pays @rcs1000 and vice versa.
Navy investigates submarine sex harassment claims.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63435129
But the world moved on and that kind of approach to women became totally unacceptable. It's not just #MeToo though that was the final kick in the teeth.
He began writing under pseudonyms to cover his identity.
I hope he finds happiness again because this embittered person raging against the dying light is not pretty.
So Britain's destiny is Vassal State, I believe.. It takes a long time for people to accept that.
As Heathener was talking about the plausibility of a rejoin referendum within 20 years and RCS1000 the impossibility of rejoining in our lifetimes, and allowing for 5 years for potential negotiations and transition period after a vote to rejoin - the bet should be on whether the UK (or rump UK) is a member within 25 years from now. (With winnings paid equivalent to today's money in the way you suggest, for example).
What odds would RSC1000 and Heathener be theoretically happy to lay/back on this bet?
Were we an Ireland, Belgium or Denmark I'd agree with you.
I am very much on the same page and the extreme views of leavers and remainers are tedious and do not contribute to the need for sensible settled compromise
Nigel didn't give up and look where it got him.
It may not be so black and white as rejoin. It’ll be incremental shades of gray, perhaps, a classic British fudge. A treaty here, an agreement there, back into the single market. If not quite galloping fields of unicorns as promised, it won’t be the scorched wasteland we’re currently wandering round, shell shocked and embittered.
If that’s the direction of travel that would make me happier than I am now. But we need a new government for that. This bunch of knee jerk ideologues, steeped in decades of anti-EUism, stoked by Johnson’s fairytale columns, can’t do it. They would rather us be poorer than give up their comforting dogma.
It's implausible that the UK will continue down this path given that it has minority support that's falling.
It's implausible the EU will bother setting up an outer fringe relationship that's ultimately congenial for the UK. Once you go beyond "some sort of associate membership" to specific rights, obligations, democratic inputs and optouts, it tends to fall apart. For the same reasons we ended up here 2016-9.
It's implausible that the UK rejoins.
But one of those things has to happen. And as I've said before, my reading of polls since the 1970s is that Euroscepticism is predominantly the project of one specific generation- young in the 1970s, old now. It's tactless to tell them that their project is a flop and isn't likely to outlive them, but that's democracy.
I put my talent into my writing, my genius I reserve for my life - o. Wilde
So unless we take a positive decision to do 3, or the EU takes a positive decision to consider 2, it will be 1.
You're a physicist. How important is the power of inertia?
That’s within some PBers’ lifetimes.
The punishment of the Truss government was the crash and burn of this nonsense. There are rules. There are counterparties. And we can't just impose our will on them. Now that lesson has been painfully learned can we get back to doing what we're good at - inventing things and selling them around the globe? Remove the idiot trade barriers that Boris imposed on us and move on.
i leads on Tory plot to knife the righties starting with Braverman
TBF the NHS was modelled on the pre-war Highlands and Islands medical service, as replicated in Scotland, England and Wales separately, and it was perhaps planned during a wartime coalition government as well, so there might be a germ of truth there - one would need to check.