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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,453
    DJ41 said:

    Latest poll from Datafolha: VI, R2 of Brazilian GE, with blanks, spoils, and DKs discounted:

    Lula 53%
    Bolsonaro 47%
    data collected 25-27 October

    https://exame.com/brasil/pesquisa-presidente-datafolha-27-outubro/

    This hasn't been reported at Wikipedia yet.

    Two earlier polls from Datafolha (13-14 and 17-19 Oct) had Lula 49 Bolsonaro 45, so Lula on 52%, slight rounding errors possible. But anyway, no shift to Bolsonaro in Datafolha polls in the last eight days and the vote is three days away.

    Lula is at 1.45 at Betfair.

    Six polls will be published on Saturday (!): Datafolha, Ipec, Genial/Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, AtlasIntel, and CNT/MDA.

    (Why is so much money being wagered at BF on this?)

    It's one of the most interesting elections at the moment. I'm not surprised people are betting on it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,576

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    Andy_JS said:

    "America’s conservatives would never elect a Hindu
    Republicans are living decades in the past
    BY PETER BEINART"

    https://unherd.com/2022/10/americas-conservatives-would-never-elect-a-hindu/

    I do recall when Khan was first elected Mayor of London having some cross purpose conversations with American friends. (Most of them quite liberal).
    They simply could not grasp the fact that a majority of Londoners of all faiths and none, and all races voted for him. He must have won on a Muslim bloc vote.
    It just did not compute.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Interesting US political betting article;

    https://www.ft.com/content/0957793e-97bf-4ebd-bd1b-0dfe5643d0bb

    ‘Gambling on democracy’: US regulators weigh election futures market

    Looks like Kalshi is only open to US residents, unfortunately.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,161
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Sunak not going to COP27

    Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!

    Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after

    I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27

    It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
    You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.

    Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
    Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
    COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week

    You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
    A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.

    If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
    No one is taking the mickey, Sunak is quite wisely signalling to voters he is staying in UK to concentrate on cost of living crisis.

    No other reason has or needs to be given.
    I think people tend to overreact in both directions about attendance/non-attendance of things.

    His not going doesn't signal he doesn't give a crap about the climate, but it also isn't going to resonate with people about how he is focusing on local concerns either. A couple of days out of the country would not have caused people to think he cared nothing for the cost of living crisis, not anyone who didn't already think that.
    Photographs of him in a nice sunny Egypt while people are grinding away at home on the other hand…
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
    Make the most of it. LAB will ban all domestic fireworks in their next term.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
    Exactly used to love it but literally burning money.

    Zero for bonfire night and either zero or £200 on NYE depending what were doing.

    Also cant really justify all the outside Christmas lights this year either
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,612

    Terrible acoustics for BBC QT somewhere in Dulwich.

    Sounds like they are deep in a massive cavern.

    Makes a change from terrible optics for HMG, I guess.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
    Exactly used to love it but literally burning money.

    Zero for bonfire night and either zero or £200 on NYE depending what were doing.

    Also cant really justify all the outside Christmas lights this year either
    I'd love to see stats for how expenditure on weddings, both in total and the average per wedding, has changed. Probably not very many people say let's have a cheapo wedding because it looks as though our energy bills will go up this winter.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
    Exactly used to love it but literally burning money.

    Zero for bonfire night and either zero or £200 on NYE depending what were doing.

    Also cant really justify all the outside Christmas lights this year either
    Often local schools put on firework displays. Much more economical and also donating money to the schools. Also much safer than doing your own. No idea why people still do fireworks at home.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,576
    Lucy Frazer having a total car crash on QT.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,430

    So thus far we have leads of
    Redfield 32 down 3
    People Polling 31 down 8
    YouGov 28 down 9
    Red Wall 28 down 12
    BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)

    And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir

    The latest leads of the others are
    Techne 31
    Deltapoll 25
    Savanta 26
    MORI 21
    Omnisis 34
    Opinium 27
    J&L 25
    Kantar 4

    I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.

    However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.

    Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
    Its data analysis, its looking at output and trends. People can infer the likely outcome for themselves.
    My expectation is still between 280 and 350 for Labour and 170 to 240 Tory.
    I still say Tory vote share is key indicator to be monitoring.

    No 30+ shares in November and that’s it for the Tories for a generation if not ever.

    That's absurd.
    There’s an absurdly painful recession and cost of living crisis coming for which the governing party have stitched themselves up to get all the blame.

    Comeback and say it’s absurd their 20% poll rating didn’t recover, absurd they are scarred for decades, on the other side of 2024.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,576
    Lucy Frazer: "David, you seem very angry about this" [to Lammy about social care crisis]

    Lammy: Too right am I angry. [huge crowd applause]



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,537
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    We're going to get global warming peaking in the 2.1-2.4C range.

    Yes, that's going to be really really shit (bear in mind we're already at 1.1-1.2C warming and it's causing problems) but it won't make us extinct.

    It will probably cause all sorts of human geopolitical problems that will pose far more serious challenges than the strict geodome/ecological ones.

    Given there are 8 billion or more of us and many of us live in coastal areas and our huge dependence on electricity and there are plenty of reasons to expect some awful headlines in the next 20-30 years.

    We may say how "nice" it is to have a warm October but that unbelievable 36 hours in late July when we topped 40c - well, imagine it for 5-10 days and you see where we might end up. That kind of weather kills the elderly, the vulnerable, the weak, the ill-prepared but these often pass under the radar.

    In many ways, the Great Smog of December 1952 (doubt anyone will be commemorating that 70th anniversary) was a wake-up call for change - the Clean Air Act - and I fear it will take a similar disaster such as a heatwave with thousands of deaths before we take climate change seriously.
    I think climate change is different. A slower burning disaster, less clear cut causality for every extreme weather event, and much slower impact of any mitigation. Smog - clean air act - cleaner air instantaneously. We’ll solve climate change over years and decades and the effect will never be completely clear. If temperatures level off by late in the century there will be people arguing we needn’t have done anything because the problem solved itself.
    I am more pessimistic, and think that we are nowhere near solving climate change. Indeed there are many positive feedback possibilities for it to keep going even with zero emissions, and I don't see that much progress on target zero.

    Curiously our flint knapping chicken licken seems to wet his knickers constantly about fanciful apocalypse, but not to notice the one we are in. Mankind will survive, but there will be many animal extinctions in the coming decades and mass migration of peoples as hotter lands become inhospitable.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,576
    Bloody lot of doctors in the QT audience.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,576

    Terrible acoustics for BBC QT somewhere in Dulwich.

    Sounds like they are deep in a massive cavern.

    Makes a change from terrible optics for HMG, I guess.
    That came later when Frazer faced the doctors on bed blocking and social care.

  • Terrible acoustics for BBC QT somewhere in Dulwich.

    Sounds like they are deep in a massive cavern.

    Isn’t the bad acoustics just the sound of Fartme-Bewer talking shite?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    edited October 2022
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    We're going to get global warming peaking in the 2.1-2.4C range.

    Yes, that's going to be really really shit (bear in mind we're already at 1.1-1.2C warming and it's causing problems) but it won't make us extinct.

    It will probably cause all sorts of human geopolitical problems that will pose far more serious challenges than the strict geodome/ecological ones.

    Given there are 8 billion or more of us and many of us live in coastal areas and our huge dependence on electricity and there are plenty of reasons to expect some awful headlines in the next 20-30 years.

    We may say how "nice" it is to have a warm October but that unbelievable 36 hours in late July when we topped 40c - well, imagine it for 5-10 days and you see where we might end up. That kind of weather kills the elderly, the vulnerable, the weak, the ill-prepared but these often pass under the radar.

    In many ways, the Great Smog of December 1952 (doubt anyone will be commemorating that 70th anniversary) was a wake-up call for change - the Clean Air Act - and I fear it will take a similar disaster such as a heatwave with thousands of deaths before we take climate change seriously.
    I think climate change is different. A slower burning disaster, less clear cut causality for every extreme weather event, and much slower impact of any mitigation. Smog - clean air act - cleaner air instantaneously. We’ll solve climate change over years and decades and the effect will never be completely clear. If temperatures level off by late in the century there will be people arguing we needn’t have done anything because the problem solved itself.
    I am more pessimistic, and think that we are nowhere near solving climate change. Indeed there are many positive feedback possibilities for it to keep going even with zero emissions, and I don't see that much progress on target zero.

    Curiously our flint knapping chicken licken seems to wet his knickers constantly about fanciful apocalypse, but not to notice the one we are in. Mankind will survive, but there will be many animal extinctions in the coming decades and mass migration of peoples as hotter lands become inhospitable.

    There's that.
    And the sheer cost to your average punter of stuff we didn't need but now do.
    Air con. Fans. Coastal defences. Flood and storm insurance. It all adds up in the cost benefit analysis.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,537
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    We're going to get global warming peaking in the 2.1-2.4C range.

    Yes, that's going to be really really shit (bear in mind we're already at 1.1-1.2C warming and it's causing problems) but it won't make us extinct.

    It will probably cause all sorts of human geopolitical problems that will pose far more serious challenges than the strict geodome/ecological ones.

    Given there are 8 billion or more of us and many of us live in coastal areas and our huge dependence on electricity and there are plenty of reasons to expect some awful headlines in the next 20-30 years.

    We may say how "nice" it is to have a warm October but that unbelievable 36 hours in late July when we topped 40c - well, imagine it for 5-10 days and you see where we might end up. That kind of weather kills the elderly, the vulnerable, the weak, the ill-prepared but these often pass under the radar.

    In many ways, the Great Smog of December 1952 (doubt anyone will be commemorating that 70th anniversary) was a wake-up call for change - the Clean Air Act - and I fear it will take a similar disaster such as a heatwave with thousands of deaths before we take climate change seriously.
    I think climate change is different. A slower burning disaster, less clear cut causality for every extreme weather event, and much slower impact of any mitigation. Smog - clean air act - cleaner air instantaneously. We’ll solve climate change over years and decades and the effect will never be completely clear. If temperatures level off by late in the century there will be people arguing we needn’t have done anything because the problem solved itself.
    I am more pessimistic, and think that we are nowhere near solving climate change. Indeed there are many positive feedback possibilities for it to keep going even with zero emissions, and I don't see that much progress on target zero.

    Curiously our flint knapping chicken licken seems to wet his knickers constantly about fanciful apocalypse, but not to notice the one we are in. Mankind will survive, but there will be many animal extinctions in the coming decades and mass migration of peoples as hotter lands become inhospitable.

    There's that.
    And the sheer cost to your average punter of stuff we didn't need but now do.
    Air con. Fans. Coastal defences. Flood insurance. It all adds up in the cost benefit analysis.
    And aircon is one of those positive feedback phenomena that will drive further warming.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,576
    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,453
    New interview with John Gray. One of the best thinkers around IMO.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvWczz1q0jU&t=1s
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,179
    edited October 2022

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Wasn't "13 wasted years" one of Wilson's slogans?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,430
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is possible to read too much into polls

    I thought it was a requirement.
    But to be honest, the problem some had with my posts was I was reading to much into polls not even in existence yet.

    Such as, from December onwards until the election, Sunak’s personal ratings, head to heads and the Tory share goes downwards, so the honeymoon needs a good rise first to account for that.

    I’m second guessing polls months and two years ahead by analysing the landscape in which they are taken. At best it’s 15 months of economic pain for voters and businesses, likely 20 to 30. At election time the start finish measurement of how much growth there has been over the five years and since Sunak was PM, will also play into polls of voters. And how many make their minds up to vote against the government as the two years progress, not even waiting till an election, that will be in these polls as well, making them less likely to upward movement of Tory vote share.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    New interview with John Gray. One of the best thinkers around IMO.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvWczz1q0jU&t=1s

    Superb bearded RU convert hooker and goalkicker for Wigan and North Sydney.
    Probably not the same one. But youthful memories nonetheless.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,576
    Utter silence when JHB says climate change isn't as bad as the scientists say and the UN is wrong.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,576

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Wasn't "13 wasted years" one of Wilson's slogans?
    And you know what he went on to do...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Wasn't "13 wasted years" one of Wilson's slogans?
    18 years was one of Blair's.
    The issue is. Why does it take so long?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647
    AlistairM said:

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
    Exactly used to love it but literally burning money.

    Zero for bonfire night and either zero or £200 on NYE depending what were doing.

    Also cant really justify all the outside Christmas lights this year either
    Often local schools put on firework displays. Much more economical and also donating money to the schools. Also much safer than doing your own. No idea why people still do fireworks at home.
    These things become tradition.

    My place on Friday closest to 5/11 then organized display on 5th itself.

    Neither this year for us.

    The 25m warning was difficult given the furthest part of the garden was 18m but always went off OK.

    Used the green opposite for NYE.

    Free display for the neighbours
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Long Eaton is a Lab gain 15% swing, exact figs to follow
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Sunak not going to COP27

    Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!

    Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after

    I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27

    It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
    You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.

    Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
    Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
    COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week

    You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
    A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.

    If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
    No one is taking the mickey, Sunak is quite wisely signalling to voters he is staying in UK to concentrate on cost of living crisis.

    No other reason has or needs to be given.
    I think people tend to overreact in both directions about attendance/non-attendance of things.

    His not going doesn't signal he doesn't give a crap about the climate, but it also isn't going to resonate with people about how he is focusing on local concerns either. A couple of days out of the country would not have caused people to think he cared nothing for the cost of living crisis, not anyone who didn't already think that.
    Photographs of him in a nice sunny Egypt while people are grinding away at home on the other hand…
    He’ll only just have returned from the G20 summit…..in Bali….
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,537

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Wasn't "13 wasted years" one of Wilson's slogans?
    And you know what he went on to do...
    It seems that governments of all stripes fail to really get to grip with social and regional equality and economic growth.

    We did though see great strides in social progress under Wilson, and again under Blair.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,537
    edited October 2022
    AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    And a new financial mess served up via Truss and Kwarteng...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    Still, 12 years should be plenty. They'll get 14, that's a decent run, no shame in the reins being handed over.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    Foxy said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Wasn't "13 wasted years" one of Wilson's slogans?
    And you know what he went on to do...
    It seems that governments of all stripes fail to really get to grip with social and regional equality and economic growth.

    We did though see great strides in social progress under Wilson, and again under Blair.
    The Blair government raised living standards reasonably equitably amongst all deciles.
    It didn't really narrow social and regional inequality, but it raised them all and stopped the gap growing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Foxy said:

    AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    And a new financial mess served up via Truss and Kwarteng...
    I feel like they've actually done a service, by to some degree revealing what a complete mess we are in, in a way that couldn't be ignored. It's now admitted we're in a crisis (actually about 6 different ones, some of which overlap), even if we clearly have not clue whatsoever how to get out of it, or the will to do it if we did.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Carnyx said:

    It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?

    https://twitter.com/jennyflower/status/1585281963979685889?s=46&t=UYkitfH-yxs9iNB1xKUlCA

    Yes.

    Today is the 27th.
    Actually, that means the author of the tweet is downplaying the issue.
    Surprisingly (for me at least) the highest November temperature recorded in England is 21.1 degrees on November 5th 1938. Be interesting to see if this is beaten by the current heatwave.

    I choose November here as the highest recorded October temperature - a sweltering 29.9 degrees - was from October 1st 2011 so I thought the November record was a more realistic

    comparison.
    I remember that day. A Saturday, conveniently. I took a boat trip on the Thames and bumped into a wedding party in the pub: lots of guys sweating in their matching tweed suits
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Trudeau….still no Macron….

    Great call with @JustinTrudeau
    .
    As close friends and free market democracies the UK and Canada have a vital role in promoting economic growth and stability, as well as ensuring Ukraine is supported unequivocally.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1585710993896001538
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,864
    dixiedean said:

    AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    Yebbut.
    Folk can see that's bollocks.
    But when labour actually publish a manifesto they will also be able to tell thats equally bollocks. I expect fully the polling for labour to drop like a stone the moment they publish their plans for governement.

    Simply put the tories have no idea how to fix the mess they helped create it since 92
    Labour have no idea how to fix the mess either they helped create it
    and who cares what the lib dems think as they are a bunch of twats who no one sane ever votes for
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,430

    Long Eaton is a Lab gain 15% swing, exact figs to follow

    Doesn’t sound like much.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Wednesbury South a Labour hold on a very small swing to the Tories
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited October 2022
    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    Yebbut.
    Folk can see that's bollocks.
    But when labour actually publish a manifesto they will also be able to tell thats equally bollocks. I expect fully the polling for labour to drop like a stone the moment they publish their plans for governement.

    Simply put the tories have no idea how to fix the mess they helped create it since 92
    Labour have no idea how to fix the mess either they helped create it
    and who cares what the lib dems think as they are a bunch of twats who no one sane ever votes for
    I don't think manifestos really break through in that way outside very rare occasions like the Dementia Tax. Most of the time they don't shift things, just add some detail and flavour to the political mood music. So one side might get away with unfunded promises more than the other for example.

    More relevantly, if none of them have any idea how to fix the mess, the public may well agree, but they have to vote for someone, and so trying for a change of personnel at least provides a chance.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,430
    No talk of fiscal black hole all year, all summer, all Tory campaign. No talk of austerity, tax rises.

    You got any evidence all the fiscal black hole was caused by Liz Truss government? You haven’t have you?
  • dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    We're going to get global warming peaking in the 2.1-2.4C range.

    Yes, that's going to be really really shit (bear in mind we're already at 1.1-1.2C warming and it's causing problems) but it won't make us extinct.

    It will probably cause all sorts of human geopolitical problems that will pose far more serious challenges than the strict geodome/ecological ones.

    Given there are 8 billion or more of us and many of us live in coastal areas and our huge dependence on electricity and there are plenty of reasons to expect some awful headlines in the next 20-30 years.

    We may say how "nice" it is to have a warm October but that unbelievable 36 hours in late July when we topped 40c - well, imagine it for 5-10 days and you see where we might end up. That kind of weather kills the elderly, the vulnerable, the weak, the ill-prepared but these often pass under the radar.

    In many ways, the Great Smog of December 1952 (doubt anyone will be commemorating that 70th anniversary) was a wake-up call for change - the Clean Air Act - and I fear it will take a similar disaster such as a heatwave with thousands of deaths before we take climate change seriously.
    I think climate change is different. A slower burning disaster, less clear cut causality for every extreme weather event, and much slower impact of any mitigation. Smog - clean air act - cleaner air instantaneously. We’ll solve climate change over years and decades and the effect will never be completely clear. If temperatures level off by late in the century there will be people arguing we needn’t have done anything because the problem solved itself.
    I am more pessimistic, and think that we are nowhere near solving climate change. Indeed there are many positive feedback possibilities for it to keep going even with zero emissions, and I don't see that much progress on target zero.

    Curiously our flint knapping chicken licken seems to wet his knickers constantly about fanciful apocalypse, but not to notice the one we are in. Mankind will survive, but there will be many animal extinctions in the coming decades and mass migration of peoples as hotter lands become inhospitable.

    There's that.
    And the sheer cost to your average punter of stuff we didn't need but now do.
    Air con. Fans. Coastal defences. Flood and storm insurance. It all adds up in the cost benefit analysis.
    I've seen estimates of 2.5 billion climate refugees by 2050. And that was before today's re-evaluation.

    One of the more curious rules of thumb about displaced people is that about 80% are internally displaced. I don't expect it will be quite so simple a ratio in the coming climate crisis but I am expecting the chance to turn away those in need will be slimmer than people expect.

    I've begun to tell myself that 'mass migration is not the problem, it's the solution.'

    I find it helps to reframe our future and make the possibility of planning for it more purposeful.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,028

    Wednesbury South a Labour hold on a very small swing to the Tories

    Wednesbury South a Labour hold on a very small swing to the Tories

    But on a very low turnout.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    slade said:

    Wednesbury South a Labour hold on a very small swing to the Tories

    Wednesbury South a Labour hold on a very small swing to the Tories

    But on a very low turnout.
    Yes, 17% turnout, 850 versus 650 from 1400 versus 1000 roughly speaking with 150 votes amongst LDs Greens and Tusc
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    Yebbut.
    Folk can see that's bollocks.
    But when labour actually publish a manifesto they will also be able to tell thats equally bollocks. I expect fully the polling for labour to drop like a stone the moment they publish their plans for governement.

    Simply put the tories have no idea how to fix the mess they helped create it since 92
    Labour have no idea how to fix the mess either they helped create it
    and who cares what the lib dems think as they are a bunch of twats who no one sane ever votes for
    We'll see.
    Tory scaremongering about Labour is a little hollow given what we've seen.
    There are no easy answers for Labour, but. We've had 12 years of Tory government telling us there
    are super simple ones.

    Austerity.
    Brexit.
    Levelling up.
    Radical tax cuts.
    Now. Fiscal rigour. Tax rises and spending cuts.

    None have worked. Why should whatever Labour come up with be less trusted than that pile of incoherent and mutually contradictory bollocks served up for more than a decade?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,161

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Sunak not going to COP27

    Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!

    Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after

    I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27

    It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
    You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.

    Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
    Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
    COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week

    You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
    A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.

    If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
    No one is taking the mickey, Sunak is quite wisely signalling to voters he is staying in UK to concentrate on cost of living crisis.

    No other reason has or needs to be given.
    I think people tend to overreact in both directions about attendance/non-attendance of things.

    His not going doesn't signal he doesn't give a crap about the climate, but it also isn't going to resonate with people about how he is focusing on local concerns either. A couple of days out of the country would not have caused people to think he cared nothing for the cost of living crisis, not anyone who didn't already think that.
    Photographs of him in a nice sunny Egypt while people are grinding away at home on the other hand…
    He’ll only just have returned from the G20 summit…..in Bali….
    You would have thought politicians would be aware of the issue
  • ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?

    Winter is coming?
    Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.

    Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.

    And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.

    I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.

    Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.

    It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
    It is bizarre. I went for a walk earlier - 5.30pm ish- and it was warm.

    I couldn’t remember what it was like last year, but it does feel odd
    Nashville is delightful this evening
    FYI (and btw) yours truly has a fine resin model of Ryman Auditorium, original home of The Grand Ole Opry.

    A Danbury Mint "collectible" that I collected at a thrift store.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryman_Auditorium
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    Yebbut.
    Folk can see that's bollocks.
    But when labour actually publish a manifesto they will also be able to tell thats equally bollocks. I expect fully the polling for labour to drop like a stone the moment they publish their plans for governement.

    Simply put the tories have no idea how to fix the mess they helped create it since 92
    Labour have no idea how to fix the mess either they helped create it
    and who cares what the lib dems think as they are a bunch of twats who no one sane ever votes for
    I don't think manifestos really break through in that way outside very rare occasions like the Dementia Tax. Most of the time they don't shift things, just add some detail and flavour to the political mood music. So one side might get away with unfunded promises more than the other for example.

    More relevantly, if none of them have any idea how to fix the mess, the public may well agree, but they have to vote for someone, and so trying for a change of personnel at least provides a chance.
    A more lucid and much less hyperbolic summation of my position outlined above. (Or below).
  • AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    Might need fine tuning on the doorstep. Along with high-performance protective gear and running shoes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,518

    Long Eaton is a Lab gain 15% swing, exact figs to follow

    That's Erewash, next to Broxtowe, Red Wall flavour plus some rural bits - Liz Blackman won it easily in 1997-2001, but it's drifted steadily to the Tories and Maggie Throup held it for them in 2019 with a 22-point margin. A 15% swing is a good start.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    Yebbut.
    Folk can see that's bollocks.
    But when labour actually publish a manifesto they will also be able to tell thats equally bollocks. I expect fully the polling for labour to drop like a stone the moment they publish their plans for governement.

    Simply put the tories have no idea how to fix the mess they helped create it since 92
    Labour have no idea how to fix the mess either they helped create it
    and who cares what the lib dems think as they are a bunch of twats who no one sane ever votes for
    We'll see.
    Tory scaremongering about Labour is a little hollow given what we've seen.
    There are no easy answers for Labour, but. We've had 12 years of Tory government telling us there
    are super simple ones.

    Austerity.
    Brexit.
    Levelling up.
    Radical tax cuts.
    Now. Fiscal rigour. Tax rises and spending cuts.

    None have worked. Why should whatever Labour come up with be less trusted than that pile of incoherent and mutually contradictory bollocks served up for more than a decade?
    I think one thing we can be certain of is that both sides will be serving up a tasty plate of incoherent and mutually contradictory bollocks at the next election.
    Tradition is hard to break.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,453
    "Bombshell Senate report concludes that COVID 'most likely' leaked from lab"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11362165/Covid-likely-leaked-lab-explosive-Senate-says.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,257

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is possible to read too much into polls

    I thought it was a requirement.
    But to be honest, the problem some had with my posts was I was reading to much into polls not even in existence yet.

    Such as, from December onwards until the election, Sunak’s personal ratings, head to heads and the Tory share goes downwards, so the honeymoon needs a good rise first to account for that.

    I’m second guessing polls months and two years ahead by analysing the landscape in which they are taken. At best it’s 15 months of economic pain for voters and businesses, likely 20 to 30. At election time the start finish measurement of how much growth there has been over the five years and since Sunak was PM, will also play into polls of voters. And how many make their minds up to vote against the government as the two years progress, not even waiting till an election, that will be in these polls as well, making them less likely to upward movement of Tory vote share.
    You make it sound as if economic problems are a novelty that we've never experienced over the past 50 years.

    If Heath could win 37% during the Miners' Strike and 25% inflation, and Callaghan could win 37% after the Winter of Discontent, this government will clear 30%+ pretty easily, come the next election.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Anyone know the range of the RAF Voyager they use for VIP travel? Sunak is attending the G20 in Bali on November 15&16 and will be in the house for Hunt’s statement on the 17th so will have to high tail it out of DPS - can he make it in one go, or will he have to refuel en-route?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Andy_JS said:

    DJ41 said:

    Latest poll from Datafolha: VI, R2 of Brazilian GE, with blanks, spoils, and DKs discounted:

    Lula 53%
    Bolsonaro 47%
    data collected 25-27 October

    https://exame.com/brasil/pesquisa-presidente-datafolha-27-outubro/

    This hasn't been reported at Wikipedia yet.

    Two earlier polls from Datafolha (13-14 and 17-19 Oct) had Lula 49 Bolsonaro 45, so Lula on 52%, slight rounding errors possible. But anyway, no shift to Bolsonaro in Datafolha polls in the last eight days and the vote is three days away.

    Lula is at 1.45 at Betfair.

    Six polls will be published on Saturday (!): Datafolha, Ipec, Genial/Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, AtlasIntel, and CNT/MDA.

    (Why is so much money being wagered at BF on this?)

    It's one of the most interesting elections at the moment. I'm not surprised people are betting on it.

    Will you be rooting for Bolsano as the ‘anti-woke’ candidate Andy?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379

    Anyone know the range of the RAF Voyager they use for VIP travel? Sunak is attending the G20 in Bali on November 15&16 and will be in the house for Hunt’s statement on the 17th so will have to high tail it out of DPS - can he make it in one go, or will he have to refuel en-route?

    He'll keep the weight down at least.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
    Make the most of it. LAB will ban all domestic fireworks in their next term.
    Er, source? Or bullshit?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is possible to read too much into polls

    I thought it was a requirement.
    But to be honest, the problem some had with my posts was I was reading to much into polls not even in existence yet.

    Such as, from December onwards until the election, Sunak’s personal ratings, head to heads and the Tory share goes downwards, so the honeymoon needs a good rise first to account for that.

    I’m second guessing polls months and two years ahead by analysing the landscape in which they are taken. At best it’s 15 months of economic pain for voters and businesses, likely 20 to 30. At election time the start finish measurement of how much growth there has been over the five years and since Sunak was PM, will also play into polls of voters. And how many make their minds up to vote against the government as the two years progress, not even waiting till an election, that will be in these polls as well, making them less likely to upward movement of Tory vote share.
    You make it sound as if economic problems are a novelty that we've never experienced over the past 50 years.

    If Heath could win 37% during the Miners' Strike and 25% inflation, and Callaghan could win 37% after the Winter of Discontent, this government will clear 30%+ pretty easily, come the next election.
    Don't think a sitting government has ever fallen below 30% have they?
    Ramsay Mac National government not included.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,578

    Long Eaton is a Lab gain 15% swing, exact figs to follow

    That's Erewash, next to Broxtowe, Red Wall flavour plus some rural bits - Liz Blackman won it easily in 1997-2001, but it's drifted steadily to the Tories and Maggie Throup held it for them in 2019 with a 22-point margin. A 15% swing is a good start.
    Not far from where I grew up in Risley.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    AlistairM said:

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
    Exactly used to love it but literally burning money.

    Zero for bonfire night and either zero or £200 on NYE depending what were doing.

    Also cant really justify all the outside Christmas lights this year either
    Often local schools put on firework displays. Much more economical and also donating money to the schools. Also much safer than doing your own. No idea why people still do fireworks at home.
    It’s far more fun to do them at home
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,257
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is possible to read too much into polls

    I thought it was a requirement.
    But to be honest, the problem some had with my posts was I was reading to much into polls not even in existence yet.

    Such as, from December onwards until the election, Sunak’s personal ratings, head to heads and the Tory share goes downwards, so the honeymoon needs a good rise first to account for that.

    I’m second guessing polls months and two years ahead by analysing the landscape in which they are taken. At best it’s 15 months of economic pain for voters and businesses, likely 20 to 30. At election time the start finish measurement of how much growth there has been over the five years and since Sunak was PM, will also play into polls of voters. And how many make their minds up to vote against the government as the two years progress, not even waiting till an election, that will be in these polls as well, making them less likely to upward movement of Tory vote share.
    You make it sound as if economic problems are a novelty that we've never experienced over the past 50 years.

    If Heath could win 37% during the Miners' Strike and 25% inflation, and Callaghan could win 37% after the Winter of Discontent, this government will clear 30%+ pretty easily, come the next election.
    Don't think a sitting government has ever fallen below 30% have they?
    Ramsay Mac National government not included.
    IIRC, Labour actually got 33% in 1931.

    40% of the electorate, at least, are centre-right voters. In the end, the large majority will vote Conservative.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,518
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "America’s conservatives would never elect a Hindu
    Republicans are living decades in the past
    BY PETER BEINART"

    https://unherd.com/2022/10/americas-conservatives-would-never-elect-a-hindu/

    I do recall when Khan was first elected Mayor of London having some cross purpose conversations with American friends. (Most of them quite liberal).
    They simply could not grasp the fact that a majority of Londoners of all faiths and none, and all races voted for him. He must have won on a Muslim bloc vote.
    It just did not compute.
    It's a good article, but I think even in the States people will accept all kinds of stuff if they approve of you. Look at pussy-grabbing, hooker-loving, sweary and corrupt Trump. Who could be less a role model for evangelicals? But they really liked him, by and alrge, and still do.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647
    Long Eaton By Election

    Lab Gain 15.8% swing

    Same swing would see Parliamentary Constituency gained too.

    Young lad Joel much better than the previous Tory
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Sunak not going to COP27

    Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!

    Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after

    I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27

    It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
    You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.

    Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
    Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
    COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week

    You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
    A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.

    If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
    No one is taking the mickey, Sunak is quite wisely signalling to voters he is staying in UK to concentrate on cost of living crisis.

    No other reason has or needs to be given.
    I think people tend to overreact in both directions about attendance/non-attendance of things.

    His not going doesn't signal he doesn't give a crap about the climate, but it also isn't going to resonate with people about how he is focusing on local concerns either. A couple of days out of the country would not have caused people to think he cared nothing for the cost of living crisis, not anyone who didn't already think that.
    Photographs of him in a nice sunny Egypt while people are grinding away at home on the other hand…
    He’ll only just have returned from the G20 summit…..in Bali….
    You would have thought politicians would be aware of the issue
    The location is chosen by the host country Indonesia.

    Very many moons ago I worked for an American multinational whose Asia region called their annual get together “The Denpasar Meeting”. Fooled no one.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Looks like Suella was the Anti Growth Coalition the whole time.

    "EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman leaked top secret plan to cut Britain’s deficit by £14bn with new ‘Growth Visa’ - after OBR warned her hardline anti immigration conference speech would increase blackhole by £6bn, new book ‘Out of the Blue’ reveals"

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1585755550595174401?t=fJUfefTuvFwAT9R0RVP6Jw&s=19
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited October 2022

    Long Eaton is a Lab gain 15% swing, exact figs to follow

    That's Erewash, next to Broxtowe, Red Wall flavour plus some rural bits - Liz Blackman won it easily in 1997-2001, but it's drifted steadily to the Tories and Maggie Throup held it for them in 2019 with a 22-point margin. A 15% swing is a good start.
    Ilkeston and Long Eaton are funny places, in Derbyshire administratively but geographically suburbs of Nottingham. The sorts of places Labour needs to win back.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Don’t tell Leon….

    Senate GOP report argues lab-leak theory is most likely origin of covid

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2022/10/27/covid-lab-leak-theory-origin/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    AlistairM said:

    Lammy tearing the government a new one with the repeated mantra "you've had twelve years"

    I think we have a new Labour campaign on the go here. 12 years of this shite.

    Tory riposte should say that it took the first 9 years to clean up Labour's financial mess and then we had Covid and now Ukraine.
    LOL
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    RH1992 said:

    Looks like Suella was the Anti Growth Coalition the whole time.

    "EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman leaked top secret plan to cut Britain’s deficit by £14bn with new ‘Growth Visa’ - after OBR warned her hardline anti immigration conference speech would increase blackhole by £6bn, new book ‘Out of the Blue’ reveals"

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1585755550595174401?t=fJUfefTuvFwAT9R0RVP6Jw&s=19

    Fat Harry trying to repackage what we already know as an exclusive
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,990
    Off topic, but the subject keeps getting brought up: "(Bloomberg) -- An disinformation campaign that aligns with Beijing’s interests alleged the US was behind the recent explosions of the Nord Stream gas pipelines and that the US is backing a prolific hacking group, according to a report published Wednesday by the cybersecurity firm Mandiant."

    source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/pro-china-disinformation-blamed-us-for-nord-stream-explosion/ar-AA13oTDk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=05806d0928204e338208f1c31d29e48d

    (It is possible, of course, that the ChiComs are saying something true; occasonally evil people do say true things. But that isn't the way I would bet.

    My own guess, as I've mentioned here before, is that Russia did it, and that NATO and the US have evidence from intelligence sources that we want to protect.)
  • Long Eaton is a Lab gain 15% swing, exact figs to follow

    Doesn’t sound like much.
    "That don't impress me much" - Shania Twain.
  • Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
    Make the most of it. LAB will ban all domestic fireworks in their next term.
    Er, source? Or bullshit?
    Please let it be true.

    My dogs hate them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,328

    Seems Firework Fortnight as started this evening in my neighbourhood.

    Been very quiet round here i was speaking to the shop i used to buy my display off Jordans in Leamington Spa and he reckons he will sell less than half the stock compared to a few years ago.

    Mind you the £59 to £99 Finale fireworks I used to buy (Hercules,Maximum Showtime) have almost doubled in price same with most of the cakes i used to get.

    An hour display with medium and large barrages used to cost me circa £600 would be well over a Grand so not bothering might get a couple for NYE
    Gotta be one of the things people can cut in the COL crisis.

    If you are panicking about the gas bill why set fire to a £20 rocket that lasts 30 seconds in the garden?
    Make the most of it. LAB will ban all domestic fireworks in their next term.
    Er, source? Or bullshit?
    Please let it be true.

    My dogs hate them.
    What Labour? Not surprised. Good judges of character dogs.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Truss was making a mockery of the 2016 vote and 2019 manifesto.

    Her open borders, slash the state / deficit-financed low tax liberalism had no mandate.

    Braverman was right to do what she did and sink Truss. Sunak is right to reappoint her.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    New interview with John Gray. One of the best thinkers around IMO.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvWczz1q0jU&t=1s

    That is definitely worth listening to. I largely agree with his analysis.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,473
    @davidfaber
    Elon Musk is now in charge at Twitter. I'm told former CEO @paraga and CFO @nedsegal have left the company's HQ and will not be returning as the Musk era begins.


    https://twitter.com/davidfaber/status/1585785519933472771
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,030

    Off topic, but the subject keeps getting brought up: "(Bloomberg) -- An disinformation campaign that aligns with Beijing’s interests alleged the US was behind the recent explosions of the Nord Stream gas pipelines and that the US is backing a prolific hacking group, according to a report published Wednesday by the cybersecurity firm Mandiant."

    source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/pro-china-disinformation-blamed-us-for-nord-stream-explosion/ar-AA13oTDk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=05806d0928204e338208f1c31d29e48d

    (It is possible, of course, that the ChiComs are saying something true; occasonally evil people do say true things. But that isn't the way I would bet.

    My own guess, as I've mentioned here before, is that Russia did it, and that NATO and the US have evidence from intelligence sources that we want to protect.)

    I think that's almost certainly the case. The Diplomatic implications on EU-US of a deliberate sabotage of infrastructure would be absolutely enormous.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,430

    Long Eaton is a Lab gain 15% swing, exact figs to follow

    Doesn’t sound like much.
    "That don't impress me much" - Shania Twain.
    So this was the Brad Pitt of by election results?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is possible to read too much into polls

    I thought it was a requirement.
    But to be honest, the problem some had with my posts was I was reading to much into polls not even in existence yet.

    Such as, from December onwards until the election, Sunak’s personal ratings, head to heads and the Tory share goes downwards, so the honeymoon needs a good rise first to account for that.

    I’m second guessing polls months and two years ahead by analysing the landscape in which they are taken. At best it’s 15 months of economic pain for voters and businesses, likely 20 to 30. At election time the start finish measurement of how much growth there has been over the five years and since Sunak was PM, will also play into polls of voters. And how many make their minds up to vote against the government as the two years progress, not even waiting till an election, that will be in these polls as well, making them less likely to upward movement of Tory vote share.
    You make it sound as if economic problems are a novelty that we've never experienced over the past 50 years.

    If Heath could win 37% during the Miners' Strike and 25% inflation, and Callaghan could win 37% after the Winter of Discontent, this government will clear 30%+ pretty easily, come the next election.
    Don't think a sitting government has ever fallen below 30% have they?
    Ramsay Mac National government not included.
    Brown got 29%.
This discussion has been closed.