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By election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    Since 98% of sex offence prosections are men - call it a "wild guess".

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/women-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2019/women-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2019#offence-analysis-1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Bet he's never got a first on PB.
    That's virtually impossible. You either have to have the astonishing luck to drop straight on a new thread - just so so rare - or you have to (rather sadly) sit waiting and refreshing your computer for hours until it happens, then SWOOP!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699
    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    rcs1000 said:

    While US commentators discuss the “backlash” against Sunak, a reminder from history:

    The Battle of Bamber Bridge, 1943.

    Racist US military police attacked black US troops on British soil.

    US military authorities demanded the town’s pubs impose a colour bar, the local landlords responded with signs that read “Black Troops Only” which pissed them off.

    A THREAD


    https://twitter.com/AfricanArchives/status/1585360676826251264

    I've been reading Sand & Steel, which is an American history of D-Day, and it contained a surprising amount about the Battle of Bamber Bridge.
    There's a fictionalised account of it in Nevil Shute's The Chequer Board.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated

    Would the police even investigate if it was a vagina?
    Oh, I think they would. Equal opps. And recent prosecutions, e.g. of female teachers.
    I presume they weren't just prosecuted for that? I mean, we're running short of teachers male or female already...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."
    Shona Robison , SNP Minister introducing the GRA to Holyrood.

    This is the quality of their "thinking".....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    LOL. Fair point, but I will bet you any sum you like£10 to £100,000, at evens that the answer is penis. Seems fair, as there's two possibilities. Wanna bet on fanny?

    mandy rhodes
    @holyroodmandy
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    Not, for instance, a policeman carrying out his duty? Not a taxi driver? Not a singing coach? Not a friend of your parents come to pick you up?

    This is just frighteningly mad.

    The "anything else" means "a woman", I think. Makes no sense otherwise, agree or not.
    So they will fake literally anythying else, but transism is a sort of sacrd space on which they wouldn't encroach because reasons?

    About the best documented (good CCTV) rape in recent history is of a woman by a pseudo trans man, anyway.

    So here we are again, with you defending fakey male rapists and flashers who fuck things up beyond belief for the genuinely trans, and me being the transphobe. Because obviously I don't *really* give a fuck about women being raped in NHS hospitals.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,767

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Maybe vote CON? 👍
    There are limits as to what I will do.
  • Will the SNP's GRCs have any legal recognition in England?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037
    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Nope. Food plays a significant part. I am a foodie. I also scare easily so I do need to pluck up courage for some of this stuff. Many years ago I skied the Tortin and I stood at the top of it for ages before launching off.

    The adrenalin is still pumping today and it did for ages after I skied that run. But it has to be done.
    Yes, voluntarily doing things you're scared of is empowering. Eg come the day I DO quit cigarettes I know I'll feel 10 feet tall. And if I don't I'll be 10 feet under. :smile:

    (cold sardonic smile there, not a nice warm one)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Maybe vote CON? 👍
    There are limits as to what I will do.
    Sky diving is great, and so high up it doesn't feel like height. Do it over a desert though, doesn't really work in cloud/rain; you apparently out-fall the rain so it's coming up at you.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,917
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Bet he's never got a first on PB.
    That's virtually impossible. You either have to have the astonishing luck to drop straight on a new thread - just so so rare - or you have to (rather sadly) sit waiting and refreshing your computer for hours until it happens, then SWOOP!
    Or you can write the thread and post the first comment before anyone knows, a la @TSE
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Bet he's never got a first on PB.
    That's virtually impossible. You either have to have the astonishing luck to drop straight on a new thread - just so so rare - or you have to (rather sadly) sit waiting and refreshing your computer for hours until it happens, then SWOOP!
    Or you can write the thread and post the first comment before anyone knows, a la @TSE
    Also known as "cheating" :)

    Every once in a while someone will post "new thread" in the old thread without claiming the first, which is terribly public-spirited of them.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Maybe vote CON? 👍
    There are limits as to what I will do.
    😊.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,257

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."
    Shona Robison , SNP Minister introducing the GRA to Holyrood.

    This is the quality of their "thinking".....
    Why do politicians make claims that are:-

    (a) very obviously false
    (b) very obviously stupid?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Gullis back to backbenches, a Rishi dividend we can all get behind.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Will the SNP's GRCs have any legal recognition in England?

    The SNP/Labour/Green/Liberal Democrat GRCs thank you very much.

    “The bill is expected to easily pass its first stage as it has support from the SNP, whose MSPs will be whipped to support the legislation, the Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour and the Scottish LibDems, who all had manifesto commitments to reforms.”

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23080830.watershed-moment-gra-reform-bill-set-first-stage-scottish-parliament/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sunak leads Starmer by 1%.

    At this moment, which of the following do British voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (25-26 Oct)

    Rishi Sunak 39% (+6)
    Keir Starmer 38% (-4)
    Don't know 23% (-2)

    Changes +/- 4 September

    Redfield have Labour 24 points ahead with over 65s..........
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,917

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."
    Shona Robison , SNP Minister introducing the GRA to Holyrood.

    This is the quality of their "thinking".....
    Did you see that Ash Regan has resigned as Community Safety Minister in protest at the legislation. I hope enough MSPs rebel and vote against the legislation to make Sturgeon take stock.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,767
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Nope. Food plays a significant part. I am a foodie. I also scare easily so I do need to pluck up courage for some of this stuff. Many years ago I skied the Tortin and I stood at the top of it for ages before launching off.

    The adrenalin is still pumping today and it did for ages after I skied that run. But it has to be done.
    Yes, voluntarily doing things you're scared of is empowering. Eg come the day I DO quit cigarettes I know I'll feel 10 feet tall. And if I don't I'll be 10 feet under. :smile:

    (cold sardonic smile there, not a nice warm one)
    I am so glad I never started smoking.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited October 2022
    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."
    Shona Robison , SNP Minister introducing the GRA to Holyrood.

    This is the quality of their "thinking".....
    Why do politicians make claims that are:-

    (a) very obviously false
    (b) very obviously stupid?
    It very much reminds of how children who reported sexual abuse to their teachers used to be accused of hysteria/making it up.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    So, train from King's Cross cancelled, next train late into Leeds, so missed the connection home.

    Two consolations:

    1. Free G&T in First Class
    2. Sitting diagonally opposite

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,917
    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."
    Shona Robison , SNP Minister introducing the GRA to Holyrood.

    This is the quality of their "thinking".....
    Why do politicians make claims that are:-

    (a) very obviously false
    (b) very obviously stupid?
    (a) politicians are false.
    (b) politicians are stupid.

    or a combination of (a) and (b).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037
    edited October 2022
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    LOL. Fair point, but I will bet you any sum you like£10 to £100,000, at evens that the answer is penis. Seems fair, as there's two possibilities. Wanna bet on fanny?

    mandy rhodes
    @holyroodmandy
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    Not, for instance, a policeman carrying out his duty? Not a taxi driver? Not a singing coach? Not a friend of your parents come to pick you up?

    This is just frighteningly mad.

    The "anything else" means "a woman", I think. Makes no sense otherwise, agree or not.
    So they will fake literally anythying else, but transism is a sort of sacrd space on which they wouldn't encroach because reasons?

    About the best documented (good CCTV) rape in recent history is of a woman by a pseudo trans man, anyway.

    So here we are again, with you defending fakey male rapists and flashers who fuck things up beyond belief for the genuinely trans, and me being the transphobe. Because obviously I don't *really* give a fuck about women being raped in NHS hospitals.
    I'm not defending criminality of any sort and have never called you a transphobe.

    I support the Scottish reform (and the similar shelved English one) which makes it easier for transgender people to obtain a GRC. I think it will improve their lives without jeopardizing other people.

    That's the rationale for the change and on balance I agree with it.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    About the general election tomorrow?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Bet he's never got a first on PB.
    That's virtually impossible. You either have to have the astonishing luck to drop straight on a new thread - just so so rare - or you have to (rather sadly) sit waiting and refreshing your computer for hours until it happens, then SWOOP!
    Or you can write the thread and post the first comment before anyone knows, a la @TSE
    Ah, I'm not counting him. He has insider info.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647

    While US commentators discuss the “backlash” against Sunak, a reminder from history:

    The Battle of Bamber Bridge, 1943.

    Racist US military police attacked black US troops on British soil.

    US military authorities demanded the town’s pubs impose a colour bar, the local landlords responded with signs that read “Black Troops Only” which pissed them off.

    A THREAD


    https://twitter.com/AfricanArchives/status/1585360676826251264

    This cant be right

    I am sure the battle of Bamber Bridge is on 5th November 2022 vs Radcliffe Borough 3pm KO
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of progressing the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill to Stage 2. It passed with 88 votes for, 33 against and 4 abstentions.

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1585665547865309185?s=46&t=Ly6BuDcHVz-gDBJeUwzZCQ
  • A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    Mildly surprising. I'm expecting a five point swing back to the Tories before settling down a bit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,030
    ohnotnow said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
    Not really directly related, but ... during lockdown a dominatrix acquaintance of mine got bored and took to visiting the local park wearing a long leather coat an not much more. If she spotted someone she liked the look of, would give them a little flash of leg or boob. If they seemed interested she'd sit with them while .. urm.... 'giving herself a special tickle'.


    Which, ummm..., park?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Any predictions for the N Ireland Assembly election on 15 December?

    DUP humiliation?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated

    Would the police even investigate if it was a vagina?
    Oh, I think they would. Equal opps. And recent prosecutions, e.g. of female teachers.
    I presume they weren't just prosecuted for that? I mean, we're running short of teachers male or female already...
    Sexual abuse, anyway: I don't inquire too closely into the details.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699

    The Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of progressing the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill to Stage 2. It passed with 88 votes for, 33 against and 4 abstentions.

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1585665547865309185?s=46&t=Ly6BuDcHVz-gDBJeUwzZCQ

    So why are our PB unionists so keen on ignoring the unionist party support? Irrespective of the pros and cons.
  • RunDeepRunDeep Posts: 77
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    LOL. Fair point, but I will bet you any sum you like£10 to £100,000, at evens that the answer is penis. Seems fair, as there's two possibilities. Wanna bet on fanny?


    mandy rhodes
    @holyroodmandy
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    Not, for instance, a policeman carrying out his duty? Not a taxi driver? Not a singing coach? Not a friend of your parents come to pick you up?

    This is just frighteningly mad.

    Or sports coaches. Or priests. Or people working in foster homes.

    Only last week IICSA published its final report. All its reports show the extent to which predatory males will do pretty much anything to get access to and abuse vulnerable children (of both sexes, though predominantly girls) and girls and girls on the cusp of womanhood. The evidence is there but is ignored.

    98% of all crimes of sexual violence are committed by men. The overwhelming majority of these - though not all - are committed against females.

    Indecent exposure is not a joke or something to snigger about. It is a crime. It is frightening to those exposed to it. It can be a gateway to more serious offences - see Wayne Couzens, for instance.

    And yet there are some on this forum and elsewhere who routinely dismiss these realities and risks. Or who claim that such matters are insignificant - as if the 51% of the population who are the most at risk from male predators don't count.

    - The Scottish government has made self-ID a legislative priority despite this not being in its manifesto.
    - It has cross border implications so is not simply a matter affecting people in Scotland.
    - A Scottish Minister has today resigned.
    - Concerns have been raised about the operation of the Sandyford clinic.
    - The Scottish government is ignoring findings of the Cass Interim Report and the NHS guidance on the appropriate range of treatments for dysphoric children.
    - In the middle of a financial and political crisis, the Labour leader made it a priority last week to give a speech to Pink News about his proposed GRA reforms.
    - Questions have been asked during PMQ's for 2 weeks running about these issues, including the safeguarding and due diligence implications of a chidren's charity having a paedophile apologist as one of its trustees (since resigned), that charity now being under investigation by the Charity Commission.
    - One of the stupider Labour MPs has today written to the Minister for Equalities about statements made in the House yesterday, not realising that the full facts will make Pink News look even worse than claimed by the Minister.

    But apparently on a politics forum discussing these issues or even mentioning them is not on.

    This - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p08njhrm - is the podcast about the sexual abuse perpetrated by the Irish swimming coach, George Gibney, on hundreds of children and girls over decades. It focuses on the stories of those who were abused. The common theme was that they "were not heard". The relief and bottled up pain and anger when they are finally heard is what this makes this podcast so unbearable - but so necessary - to listen to.

    We should hear the concerns people are expressing not dismiss them because they are too difficult to engage with.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Driver said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    About the general election tomorrow?
    No honeymoon is very worrying. Even Truss got a minor uptick in the first few polls after being appointed. A “no change” (MoE) poll for a new PM is surely totally unprecedented?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    So, train from King's Cross cancelled, next train late into Leeds, so missed the connection home.

    Two consolations:

    1. Free G&T in First Class
    2. Sitting diagonally opposite

    Diagonally opposite who?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    The Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of progressing the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill to Stage 2. It passed with 88 votes for, 33 against and 4 abstentions.

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1585665547865309185?s=46&t=Ly6BuDcHVz-gDBJeUwzZCQ

    So why are our PB unionists so keen on ignoring the unionist party support? Irrespective of the pros and cons.
    We both know the answer to that.

    SNP BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAD.
  • Fantastic decision, they admit the lino was an absolute roaster who should never officiate again.

    Jurgen Klopp has escaped a touchline ban following his red card against Manchester City earlier this month.

    Klopp was sent off by referee Anthony Taylor in the 76th minute of Liverpool’s 1-0 win over the champions. It followed an incident in which he strongly criticised the assistant referee, Gary Beswick, for not awarding a foul after Mohamed Salah was pulled to ground by Bernardo Silva.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/10/27/jurgen-klopp-escapes-touchline-ban-shouting-assistant-referee/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Old one, but still.
    Old_Hand said:

    It should be remembered that applying FPTP to PCC and Mayoral Elections was a specific pledge in the 2019 Conservative Manifesto therefore TSE's point is not valid.

    No it wasn't. It was at best a general pledge, and potentially implied, but it was not a 'specific pledge'.

    We will continue to support the First Past the Post system of voting, as it allows voters to kick out politicians who don’t deliver, both locally and nationally.

    https://www.conservatives.com/our-plan/conservative-party-manifesto-2019

    'Continue to support...both locally and nationally' is not a specific pledge.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037
    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
  • kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Nope. Food plays a significant part. I am a foodie. I also scare easily so I do need to pluck up courage for some of this stuff. Many years ago I skied the Tortin and I stood at the top of it for ages before launching off.

    The adrenalin is still pumping today and it did for ages after I skied that run. But it has to be done.
    Yes, voluntarily doing things you're scared of is empowering. Eg come the day I DO quit cigarettes I know I'll feel 10 feet tall. And if I don't I'll be 10 feet under. :smile:

    (cold sardonic smile there, not a nice warm one)
    I am so glad I never started smoking.
    It mystifies me that anybody starts these days.

    When I started it was just about possible to believe it was harmless, or at least not terribly serious. It is now no longer possible, and we know for sure it is addictive, so giving up is naturally difficult.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2022

    Will the SNP's GRCs have any legal recognition in England?

    It is unclear if a GRC granted in Scotland, which will be granted at a much lower threshold compared to England and Wales, will have the same effect UK-wide as one granted under the current system.

    https://murrayblackburnmackenzie.org/2022/03/02/gender-recognition-reform-unanswered-questions/

    The constituent asked a number of questions about the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, which she chose to base on questions we have raised. We are grateful to her for sharing the response she received.

    The MSP responding is also a Scottish Government Minister. Collective responsibility (see 2.1 and 10.4 here) means Ministers answering questions about government policy from constituents are expected to represent the government view. So it is likely that these responses were prepared within government and reflect the best answer it is able to provide for each question, making the lines offered of particular interest ahead of Thursday’s Stage 1 debate.

    The response struggles to answer most of these basic questions about the government’s proposals. The response cannot, for example, articulate the legal effects of a Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC), describe what is meant by ‘acquired gender’, or show that it understands the implications for the operation of the Equality Act 2010. The response fails at one point to acknowledge that the Government is involved in directly relevant court proceedings. Of particular concern, the Scottish Government appears blind to the growing body of critical evidence on social transition, including the findings of the interim Cass Review.


    https://murrayblackburnmackenzie.org/2022/10/25/still-no-answers/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,466
    edited October 2022
    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Drive a steam train? Maybe fly a glider (the heights thing doesn't really kick in).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.

    There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.

    Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated

    Would the police even investigate if it was a vagina?
    Oh, I think they would. Equal opps. And recent prosecutions, e.g. of female teachers.
    I presume they weren't just prosecuted for that? I mean, we're running short of teachers male or female already...
    Sexual abuse, anyway: I don't inquire too closely into the details.
    Tends to be full on sex.

    This Berkshire thing is mad even on its own terms because we all know that owning a penis or vagina is not a gender indicator, right? Right? So to say this person displayed a penis or vagina in no way infringes their right to dignity, but it is a pretty big clue to the people who are being invited by the ad to consider whether they know the person or not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    Must stand out amongst the sea of those with elbow patches on jackets, electrical tape on glasses and cardigans.
  • kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    I too have a mental image of you all. Mostly they are fairly bland but I must say I do have the hots for JackW.

    I do hope I never meet him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    I guess no one gets much of a honeymoon anymore.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    FPT (on end of FPTP)
    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    EPG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said: "I don't think that is true. In countries with PR coalitions are often non contiguous, as left to right is only one dimension of politics."

    I thought I said essentially that in my next-to-the-last paragraph.

    But I will add these two general observations: Proportional representation is better if your top priority is to allow voters to express their opinions. FPTP (with two parties) is better if your top priority is governments that govern close to the views of the median voter. (And, if appropriate, median on more than one dimension.)

    Having been unable to find a major party candidate I could vote for in our last two presidential elections, I can sympathize with those who put expressing themselves first, but think the second system is better for my nation. (Fortunately we can write in our choices here, so I expressed myself that way.)

    There are loads of mature democracies with PR - are they mostly bad at having governments that govern close to the views of the median voter?

    If I look at the examples FPTP and PR that I'm most familiar with (UK and Germany), my impression is Germany probably tends to have governments that govern closer to the views of the median voter.
    Germany have governments that fulfil less of their manifesto commitments even commented on by the guardian
    The manifesto is a statement of principles, but when nobody has a majority, it is natural that nobody can implement 100% of their commitments. Instead they negotiate and publish a coalition agreement based on their principles. The manifesto as contract is more a concept for majority governments.
    And that is the problem with coalitions. They allow the parties to decide what they think is best, even when it contradicts what they promised to get elected and then they blame the need to produce a stable coalition as justification for breaking those promises.
    The answer to that is to bring in a degree of PR under a semi-proportionate "majority bonus" system as practiced in Greece currently and in Italy from 2006 to 2013. That effectively forces parties with aspirations to govern to form coalitions and meet a requirement to agree a joint basic programme for government, all before people vote. This is because seats are only initially allocated proportionately after which parties in the coalition with most votes get a "majority bonus" of extra top up seats. The top up seats effectively guarantee a working majority or near working majority depending on the number of bonus seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majority_bonus_system

    What would almost certainly emerge in the UK is a broad coalition of the right, and a broad coalition of the left. The LDs would be forced to choose sides before the election, if they chose the left a minority of LD voters might defect to the Conservatives. The Conservatives would have to decide whether going into a coalition with Reform and UKIP delivered more bonus seats than it lost through putting off more centrist Conservative electors. The Corbynite far left would split from Labour regardless, but would take few voters with them and Starmer's Labour might regard that as a bonus as helpful as it it tried to put together a broad moderate coalition of the left with the LDs and Greens. Constitutional wreckers would no doubt not be allowed anywhere near the left or right coalitions, so the SNP would be reduced from their currently utterly disproportionate 8% of UK seats under FPTP to something closer to 3%. I suspect that Plaid would want to join the left coalition and would be allowed in. I suspect that the NI parties would stay out of any coalition.

    It seems to me more proportionate than what we have got now, more transparent in offering a clear pre-election choice which puts the voters in control, and very capable of delivering stable government. Basically it ticks all the boxes.

    The problem with bonus allotments is that it's a bunch of extra politicians that don't have any constituency link and are very difficult to kick out.
    Hardly a show stopper. A degree of geography can be added in by allocating bonus seats via regions. And the same issue applies to any standard PR system with a list system added onto a constituency system, so extra regional seats are hardly unique to the majority bonus system eg. Germany.
    Party list PR is a horrific elitist system so that isn't a good excuse.
    To be effective in forcing pre-election coalitions, in the UK a majority bonus system could need as few as 50 list seats added under the electoral bonus to around 600 seats elected by PR within defined multi-member constituencies which could still be reasonably small. So yes, it is a good excuse. Just 1 in 13 seats allocated by the list system you don't like, in order to deliver a system which overall is reasonably proportional, transparently delivers a clear pre-election coalition choice, and offers stable government.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022

    Driver said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    About the general election tomorrow?
    No honeymoon is very worrying. Even Truss got a minor uptick in the first few polls after being appointed. A “no change” (MoE) poll for a new PM is surely totally unprecedented?
    Final 2 polls before Boris Tory share 25% x2
    First 2 polls after Boris is PM share 25% 28%

    Final 3 polls of Cameron 36, 38, 36
    First 3 May polls 39, 40, 37
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Driver said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    About the general election tomorrow?
    No honeymoon is very worrying. Even Truss got a minor uptick in the first few polls after being appointed. A “no change” (MoE) poll for a new PM is surely totally unprecedented?
    Is that true of Truss? I don't remember anything outside MoE.

    He got a 9 point bounce with yougov yesterday, to still a 30 point lab lead.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Drive a steam train? Maybe fly a glider (the heights thing doesn't really kick in).
    Caving?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    So, train from King's Cross cancelled, next train late into Leeds, so missed the connection home.

    Two consolations:

    1. Free G&T in First Class
    2. Sitting diagonally opposite

    Diagonally opposite who?
    I'll let you draw your own mental image...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    kle4 said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    I guess no one gets much of a honeymoon anymore.
    Truss did.
    Johnson did.
    May did.
    Cameron did.
    Brown did.
    Blair did.
    Major did.

    Sunak is unique in managing a “no change” MoE poll.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946

    Driver said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    About the general election tomorrow?
    No honeymoon is very worrying. Even Truss got a minor uptick in the first few polls after being appointed. A “no change” (MoE) poll for a new PM is surely totally unprecedented?
    Polls plural, this is the first poll partially after his appointment and still entirely before he did anything.

    And if the comment upthread about Labout leading over 65s by 24 points is correct, then I think we can all agree that it's best to wait for a bit more evidence before drawing any conclusions, even very tentatively.

    We even had some muppet earlier today claiming a poll was definitely "peak Rishi". FFS.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Driver said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    About the general election tomorrow?
    No honeymoon is very worrying. Even Truss got a minor uptick in the first few polls after being appointed. A “no change” (MoE) poll for a new PM is surely totally unprecedented?
    Final 2 polls before Boris Tory share 25% x2
    First 2 polls after Boris is PM share 25% 28%

    Final 3 polls of Cameron 36, 38, 36
    First 3 May polls 39, 40, 37
    By *same* pollster?!? House effect house effect.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,946

    FPT (on end of FPTP)

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    EPG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said: "I don't think that is true. In countries with PR coalitions are often non contiguous, as left to right is only one dimension of politics."

    I thought I said essentially that in my next-to-the-last paragraph.

    But I will add these two general observations: Proportional representation is better if your top priority is to allow voters to express their opinions. FPTP (with two parties) is better if your top priority is governments that govern close to the views of the median voter. (And, if appropriate, median on more than one dimension.)

    Having been unable to find a major party candidate I could vote for in our last two presidential elections, I can sympathize with those who put expressing themselves first, but think the second system is better for my nation. (Fortunately we can write in our choices here, so I expressed myself that way.)

    There are loads of mature democracies with PR - are they mostly bad at having governments that govern close to the views of the median voter?

    If I look at the examples FPTP and PR that I'm most familiar with (UK and Germany), my impression is Germany probably tends to have governments that govern closer to the views of the median voter.
    Germany have governments that fulfil less of their manifesto commitments even commented on by the guardian
    The manifesto is a statement of principles, but when nobody has a majority, it is natural that nobody can implement 100% of their commitments. Instead they negotiate and publish a coalition agreement based on their principles. The manifesto as contract is more a concept for majority governments.
    And that is the problem with coalitions. They allow the parties to decide what they think is best, even when it contradicts what they promised to get elected and then they blame the need to produce a stable coalition as justification for breaking those promises.
    The answer to that is to bring in a degree of PR under a semi-proportionate "majority bonus" system as practiced in Greece currently and in Italy from 2006 to 2013. That effectively forces parties with aspirations to govern to form coalitions and meet a requirement to agree a joint basic programme for government, all before people vote. This is because seats are only initially allocated proportionately after which parties in the coalition with most votes get a "majority bonus" of extra top up seats. The top up seats effectively guarantee a working majority or near working majority depending on the number of bonus seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majority_bonus_system

    What would almost certainly emerge in the UK is a broad coalition of the right, and a broad coalition of the left. The LDs would be forced to choose sides before the election, if they chose the left a minority of LD voters might defect to the Conservatives. The Conservatives would have to decide whether going into a coalition with Reform and UKIP delivered more bonus seats than it lost through putting off more centrist Conservative electors. The Corbynite far left would split from Labour regardless, but would take few voters with them and Starmer's Labour might regard that as a bonus as helpful as it it tried to put together a broad moderate coalition of the left with the LDs and Greens. Constitutional wreckers would no doubt not be allowed anywhere near the left or right coalitions, so the SNP would be reduced from their currently utterly disproportionate 8% of UK seats under FPTP to something closer to 3%. I suspect that Plaid would want to join the left coalition and would be allowed in. I suspect that the NI parties would stay out of any coalition.

    It seems to me more proportionate than what we have got now, more transparent in offering a clear pre-election choice which puts the voters in control, and very capable of delivering stable government. Basically it ticks all the boxes.

    The problem with bonus allotments is that it's a bunch of extra politicians that don't have any constituency link and are very difficult to kick out.
    Hardly a show stopper. A degree of geography can be added in by allocating bonus seats via regions. And the same issue applies to any standard PR system with a list system added onto a constituency system, so extra regional seats are hardly unique to the majority bonus system eg. Germany.
    Party list PR is a horrific elitist system so that isn't a good excuse.
    To be effective in forcing pre-election coalitions, in the UK a majority bonus system could need as few as 50 list seats added under the electoral bonus to around 600 seats elected by PR within defined multi-member constituencies which could still be reasonably small. So yes, it is a good excuse. Just 1 in 13 seats allocated by the list system you don't like, in order to deliver a system which overall is reasonably proportional, transparently delivers a clear pre-election coalition choice, and offers stable government.
    We have enough people with guaranteed seats in the legislature in the upper house without adding more to the lower.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,363
    kle4 said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    I guess no one gets much of a honeymoon anymore.
    The betting opportunity here is that Sunak gets written off prematurely.
    The past isn't that reliable as a guide to the future.
    I think that, if Sunak does ok then his polling will gradually rise.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    Must stand out amongst the sea of those with elbow patches on jackets, electrical tape on glasses and cardigans.
    Nowt wrong with cardigans!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,933
    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    I too have a mental image of you all. Mostly they are fairly bland but I must say I do have the hots for JackW.

    I do hope I never meet him.
    Never meet your heroes. That's why I haven't been to a PB gathering. I know people wouldn't want to meet me. :blush:
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited October 2022
    Has the racist vote decamped to Reform?

    And if so, will it return to the Tories before polling day?
  • Leon said:

    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?

    Send one of your non jet lagged personas instead?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    I guess no one gets much of a honeymoon anymore.
    Except people seem to be misremembering how bounces actually work/ happen

    There is already clearly a bounce in his personal figures and the Tory share compared to last week with YouGov, Redfield and Redfield Red Wall. We await others and how long the upswing on the boucce happens for

    The instantism is weird, when has polling ever instantly moved to a new dynamic? Even the Trusstastrophe took a couple to three weeks
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,363
    Leon said:

    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?

    Beers.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Leon said:

    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?

    Methamphetamine?
  • Leon said:

    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?

    Methamphetamine?
    Quick swim in Highgate Ponds.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,934
    edited October 2022

    Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.

    There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.

    Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.

    I have already commented on this that it is too early to expect a substantial bounce and certainly the polls post the 17th November Autumn statement will be interesting

    However, I understand in tonight's poll Rishi has overtaken Starmer as best PM 39%/38%
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    Must stand out amongst the sea of those with elbow patches on jackets, electrical tape on glasses and cardigans.
    Nowt wrong with cardigans!
    The last Crimean war was so productive - cardigans, balaclavas, raglan sleeves - I am hoping for some really innovative cold weather cosies to emerge from this coming winter. Like the Apollo program being great because we got cordless screwdrivers.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Driver said:

    FPT (on end of FPTP)

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    EPG said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said: "I don't think that is true. In countries with PR coalitions are often non contiguous, as left to right is only one dimension of politics."

    I thought I said essentially that in my next-to-the-last paragraph.

    But I will add these two general observations: Proportional representation is better if your top priority is to allow voters to express their opinions. FPTP (with two parties) is better if your top priority is governments that govern close to the views of the median voter. (And, if appropriate, median on more than one dimension.)

    Having been unable to find a major party candidate I could vote for in our last two presidential elections, I can sympathize with those who put expressing themselves first, but think the second system is better for my nation. (Fortunately we can write in our choices here, so I expressed myself that way.)

    There are loads of mature democracies with PR - are they mostly bad at having governments that govern close to the views of the median voter?

    If I look at the examples FPTP and PR that I'm most familiar with (UK and Germany), my impression is Germany probably tends to have governments that govern closer to the views of the median voter.
    Germany have governments that fulfil less of their manifesto commitments even commented on by the guardian
    The manifesto is a statement of principles, but when nobody has a majority, it is natural that nobody can implement 100% of their commitments. Instead they negotiate and publish a coalition agreement based on their principles. The manifesto as contract is more a concept for majority governments.
    And that is the problem with coalitions. They allow the parties to decide what they think is best, even when it contradicts what they promised to get elected and then they blame the need to produce a stable coalition as justification for breaking those promises.
    The answer to that is to bring in a degree of PR under a semi-proportionate "majority bonus" system as practiced in Greece currently and in Italy from 2006 to 2013. That effectively forces parties with aspirations to govern to form coalitions and meet a requirement to agree a joint basic programme for government, all before people vote. This is because seats are only initially allocated proportionately after which parties in the coalition with most votes get a "majority bonus" of extra top up seats. The top up seats effectively guarantee a working majority or near working majority depending on the number of bonus seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majority_bonus_system

    What would almost certainly emerge in the UK is a broad coalition of the right, and a broad coalition of the left. The LDs would be forced to choose sides before the election, if they chose the left a minority of LD voters might defect to the Conservatives. The Conservatives would have to decide whether going into a coalition with Reform and UKIP delivered more bonus seats than it lost through putting off more centrist Conservative electors. The Corbynite far left would split from Labour regardless, but would take few voters with them and Starmer's Labour might regard that as a bonus as helpful as it it tried to put together a broad moderate coalition of the left with the LDs and Greens. Constitutional wreckers would no doubt not be allowed anywhere near the left or right coalitions, so the SNP would be reduced from their currently utterly disproportionate 8% of UK seats under FPTP to something closer to 3%. I suspect that Plaid would want to join the left coalition and would be allowed in. I suspect that the NI parties would stay out of any coalition.

    It seems to me more proportionate than what we have got now, more transparent in offering a clear pre-election choice which puts the voters in control, and very capable of delivering stable government. Basically it ticks all the boxes.

    The problem with bonus allotments is that it's a bunch of extra politicians that don't have any constituency link and are very difficult to kick out.
    Hardly a show stopper. A degree of geography can be added in by allocating bonus seats via regions. And the same issue applies to any standard PR system with a list system added onto a constituency system, so extra regional seats are hardly unique to the majority bonus system eg. Germany.
    Party list PR is a horrific elitist system so that isn't a good excuse.
    To be effective in forcing pre-election coalitions, in the UK a majority bonus system could need as few as 50 list seats added under the electoral bonus to around 600 seats elected by PR within defined multi-member constituencies which could still be reasonably small. So yes, it is a good excuse. Just 1 in 13 seats allocated by the list system you don't like, in order to deliver a system which overall is reasonably proportional, transparently delivers a clear pre-election coalition choice, and offers stable government.
    We have enough people with guaranteed seats in the legislature in the upper house without adding more to the lower.
    Then do something about the upper house instead of letting the tail wag the dog.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    kle4 said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    I guess no one gets much of a honeymoon anymore.
    Except people seem to be misremembering how bounces actually work/ happen

    There is already clearly a bounce in his personal figures and the Tory share compared to last week with YouGov, Redfield and Redfield Red Wall. We await others and how long the upswing on the boucce happens for

    The instantism is weird, when has polling ever instantly moved to a new dynamic? Even the Trusstastrophe took a couple to three weeks
    Never ever ever ever fail to kick the Tory toerags when they’re down. The Schadenfreude endorphins are kicking in nicely.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    Has the racist vote decamped to Reform?

    And if so, will it return to the Tories before polling day?

    They've ordered their black shorts online. As soon as they arrive they'll be off.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699
    edited October 2022

    Leon said:

    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?

    Methamphetamine?
    Quick swim in Highgate Ponds.
    Regent's Canal would be more convenient at Camden Lock? He could head straight for the pub once he gets out.
  • I reckon it's best to wait until the New Year to start taking anything concrete from the polls. There will definitely be a Truss lag and possibly a Sunak honeymoon. It will need a few months to settle down.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Leon said:

    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?

    Fly home a day earlier.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    I too have a mental image of you all. Mostly they are fairly bland but I must say I do have the hots for JackW.

    I do hope I never meet him.
    Never meet your heroes. That's why I haven't been to a PB gathering. I know people wouldn't want to meet me. :blush:
    You have 'heroes' on here? How sad.

    Seriously, it is difficult to be rude or even hostile to people you have met at the gatherings. Not sure that is a good thing.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022

    Driver said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    About the general election tomorrow?
    No honeymoon is very worrying. Even Truss got a minor uptick in the first few polls after being appointed. A “no change” (MoE) poll for a new PM is surely totally unprecedented?
    Final 2 polls before Boris Tory share 25% x2
    First 2 polls after Boris is PM share 25% 28%

    Final 3 polls of Cameron 36, 38, 36
    First 3 May polls 39, 40, 37
    By *same* pollster?!? House effect house effect.
    Boris Yes, Comres and YouGov
    May, OK ICM was the 38 then 39
    Next closest to each other on date before and after Opinium with 34 and 37

    This Redfield has over 65s 50 to 26 in favour of Labour.
  • Leon said:

    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?

    Walk to the pub. If it's nearby, take the long way round.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,680

    Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.

    There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.

    Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.

    No, take a look at the leader ratings. Rishi is beginning to pull back the huge deficit that Liz Truss created. That takes time to fees through into the VI.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    Must stand out amongst the sea of those with elbow patches on jackets, electrical tape on glasses and cardigans.
    Nowt wrong with cardigans!
    The way I wear them there is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    Must stand out amongst the sea of those with elbow patches on jackets, electrical tape on glasses and cardigans.
    The scruffy nerd look? Leon and Bart are the only 2 like that in my minds eye.
  • Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?

    Methamphetamine?
    Quick swim in Highgate Ponds.
    Regent's Canal would be more convenient at Camden Lock? He could head straight for the pub once he gets out.
    He'd need to head straight for the Royal Free if he went in Regent's Canal. :(
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,699

    Has the racist vote decamped to Reform?

    And if so, will it return to the Tories before polling day?

    They've ordered their black shorts online. As soon as they arrive they'll be off.
    In the Eulalie lingerie catalogue, doubtless.
  • Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.

    There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.

    Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.

    The classic honeymoon bounce was Thatcher to Major. And like Truss to Sunak, that was a bit sudden and the changeover happened over about a week.

    In 1990, Conservative ratings went up 4 or 5 points pretty much the moment the Leaderene resigned ("I'm enjoying this!" What a swansong.) and then a few points more when Major was elected.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

    But in 1990, Mrs Thatch was a ginormous beast, and her departure was a big thing. Her going really did relaunch the Conservative Party. Sunak may be a better PM than Truss or Johnson (he could hardly be worse) but he's not a massive shift. And frankly, the "Johnsonism without the massive ethical flaws" is less convincing a slogan now than it was on Monday.

    Besides, a chunk of the Conservative woes in 1990 were down to the Poll Tax, and that went down with Maggie. What emblematic policy, now unpopular with the wider public, could the Conservatives ditch in 2022?

    You know, I know, we all know... But it isn't going to happen, is it?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022

    kle4 said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    I guess no one gets much of a honeymoon anymore.
    Truss did.
    Johnson did.
    May did.
    Cameron did.
    Brown did.
    Blair did.
    Major did.

    Sunak is unique in managing a “no change” MoE poll.
    Thats completely untrue

    Truss had several, ive slready shown May and Boris did, Browns first MORI was MoE from Blairs last
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,037

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    I too have a mental image of you all. Mostly they are fairly bland but I must say I do have the hots for JackW.

    I do hope I never meet him.
    Never meet your heroes. That's why I haven't been to a PB gathering. I know people wouldn't want to meet me. :blush:
    You have 'heroes' on here? How sad.

    Seriously, it is difficult to be rude or even hostile to people you have met at the gatherings. Not sure that is a good thing.
    No!! - my little joke there was that EYE am other people's hero.

    Ah well. They don't all land.
  • I reckon it's best to wait until the New Year to start taking anything concrete from the polls. There will definitely be a Truss lag and possibly a Sunak honeymoon. It will need a few months to settle down.

    Agreed
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,740

    Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.

    There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.

    Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.

    I have already commented on this that it is too early to expect a substantial bounce and certainly the polls post the 17th November Autumn statement will be interesting

    However, I understand in tonight's poll Rishi has overtaken Starmer as best PM 39%/38%
    If so he should go to the country immediately, before there's a chance for reality to take hold again.
  • I reckon it's best to wait until the New Year to start taking anything concrete from the polls. There will definitely be a Truss lag and possibly a Sunak honeymoon. It will need a few months to settle down.

    At the current run rate might be too late and a different PM by the New Year.....
  • Chris said:

    Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.

    There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.

    Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.

    I have already commented on this that it is too early to expect a substantial bounce and certainly the polls post the 17th November Autumn statement will be interesting

    However, I understand in tonight's poll Rishi has overtaken Starmer as best PM 39%/38%
    If so he should go to the country immediately, before there's a chance for reality to take hold again.
    Good try, but he will take the full 2 years and I would caution Labour from being over confident

    2 years is a long time in politics
  • MaxPB said:

    Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.

    There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.

    Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.

    No, take a look at the leader ratings. Rishi is beginning to pull back the huge deficit that Liz Truss created. That takes time to fees through into the VI.
    I was surprised tonight that he has overtaken Starmer as best PM
  • Leon said:

    HELP

    MASSIVE JET LAG

    Have to wake up for a meeting in a pub which I can't miss

    Four coffees have not helped. Still nodding off?

    And PB Brains Trust Advice?

    Walk to the pub. If it's nearby, take the long way round.

    Jet lag along with being a new parent are acceptable excuses for being tired in the day (unlike say just going to bed late) so just explain to your host and they will understand
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I've just seen the Redfield & Wilton poll. So that's two polls with fieldwork taken since Rishi became PM showing Labour with 28% and now 32% leads.

    I was expecting at least some sort of honeymoon bounce. This shows nothing as yet.

    The back benches could start to become discontented if this continues, which I think it may.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603

    I reckon it's best to wait until the New Year to start taking anything concrete from the polls. There will definitely be a Truss lag and possibly a Sunak honeymoon. It will need a few months to settle down.

    I disagree, I suspect there will be signals in amongst complex movements. Sunak is better than Truss. He has to move the polls. But Sunak does not have appeal to the Boris supporters. That also has to move the polls.

    These effects might cancel out. So no change, might actually be change.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
    Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
    Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
    Must stand out amongst the sea of those with elbow patches on jackets, electrical tape on glasses and cardigans.
    Nowt wrong with cardigans!
    The last Crimean war was so productive - cardigans, balaclavas, raglan sleeves - I am hoping for some really innovative cold weather cosies to emerge from this coming winter. Like the Apollo program being great because we got cordless screwdrivers.
    And non-stick saucepans I believe.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,647
    Lab 32% ahead

    SKS 1% behind

    MASSIVE DRAG
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    kle4 said:

    A “no change” poll by R&W:

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…

    Team Sunak must be very concerned.

    I guess no one gets much of a honeymoon anymore.
    Except people seem to be misremembering how bounces actually work/ happen

    There is already clearly a bounce in his personal figures and the Tory share compared to last week with YouGov, Redfield and Redfield Red Wall. We await others and how long the upswing on the boucce happens for

    The instantism is weird, when has polling ever instantly moved to a new dynamic? Even the Trusstastrophe took a couple to three weeks
    Never ever ever ever fail to kick the Tory toerags when they’re down. The Schadenfreude endorphins are kicking in nicely.
    The Tories are swimming in sewage still but facts versus bullshit one should still go with facts
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603

    I reckon it's best to wait until the New Year to start taking anything concrete from the polls. There will definitely be a Truss lag and possibly a Sunak honeymoon. It will need a few months to settle down.

    Agreed
    I bet you would not have said that if the polls had been more agreeable.
This discussion has been closed.