Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
I don't bet and am not a LAB fan but I think LAB maj is the most likely outcome at the moment maybe LAN seats 335 to 345 so maj 20 to 60 DYOR 👍
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
And there's this for the arithmetically challenged like me
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Not quite the same adrenaline rush, but ever driven a steam railway engine? Lots of heritage railways do quite a range footplate experiences to suit various price points...
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Giving in to the ERG on Day One has probably sunk his chances. Which were extremely slim anyway.
It struck me as a sign of weakness, but it's early days.
Predicament for Nicola Sturgeon. If she withdraws whip from 9 who voted against/abstained on GRR, she loses her majority and is in hock to Greens. If she doesn't act, she loses authority in group. Whatever, she is no longer omnipotent. Interesting.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Hmm. I think I would disagree. Surely that 16% covers the black (or white) swan event that brings a Tory majority into play. Two years is a bloody lifetime in modern politics and I think I would be tempted by a small flutter on the possibility of a Tory majority as long as it was money I could afford to lose.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
You are ruling out the possibility [...] It’s just far too early to tell
I am and it isn't.
It's over.
The only question is the scale of the Conservative losses.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
In another universe, Rishi Sunak is Chief Secretary to the Treasury in Osborne's third administration (the first being the one after he became Prime Minister after David Cameron retired in 2018, the second was the administration he formed after winning the 2019 election and the third the one after the extensive post-Covid reshuffle in July 2021.
Osborne's Conservatives trail Starmer's Labour Party by 20 points in the latest poll.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan, I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Banning fracking gives you that impression ?
Also it is the G20 meeting in Bali on the 15th and 16th November which I am sure he will attend
Yes he will be. Several of the Downing St readouts of the calls with G20 world leaders like Modi say he's looking forward to meeting them in person next month.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
You are ruling out the possibility [...] It’s just far too early to tell
I am and it isn't.
It's over.
The only question is the scale of the Conservative losses.
The trick was to realise and say that when Lab Maj was at 6. But you have got there.
In fairness, Ish, one would have needed to predict the Trussterfuckup, and few could have foreseen its full scale.
I was expecting a (narrow) lab maj even under Johnson on the basis he was going to crash and burn, his replacement wouldn't be much better, we have had 12 years of tories, and crucially because the strongest argument against was always the very weak one that No one has overturned that big a majority since nineteen something. Which without context never looks much of an argument to me.
Sure.
The biggest 'context' is that Labour ran with Corbyn last time. That reminds me of a professional punter I knew who referred to a particular jockey as 'the ten pound penalty'!
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week
You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
You're confusing a film with the underlying political issues, suich as the Poll Tax. It might be crap agitprop but it wouldn't have any effect if there were real issues. In any case, it didn't have much effect in itself: migvht have made a few folk think, but come off it, an Australian actor?!
The only times I ever see Braveheart mentioned - for the last decade or so - are on PB and on crap London newspaper editorials.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Not quite the same adrenaline rush, but ever driven a steam railway engine? Lots of heritage railways do quite a range footplate experiences to suit various price points...
You're the second one to suggest that and I think it is a great idea. Thanks.
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Yes, the November statement has to survive contact with both a) the Tory media; and b) reality.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
In another universe, Rishi Sunak is Chief Secretary to the Treasury in Osborne's third administration (the first being the one after he became Prime Minister after David Cameron retired in 2018, the second was the administration he formed after winning the 2019 election and the third the one after the extensive post-Covid reshuffle in July 2021.
Osborne's Conservatives trail Starmer's Labour Party by 20 points in the latest poll.
That's better than the 32% in this universe. Talking of which I can't see Suella surviving. Every news programme seems to be obsessing about it. I feel her defenders are taking a battering and of course that doesn't include those on her own side who will be quietly nonplussed. They look like a pretty sleazy pair
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
I've just seen the Redfield & Wilton poll. So that's two polls with fieldwork taken since Rishi became PM showing Labour with 28% and now 32% leads.
I was expecting at least some sort of honeymoon bounce. This shows nothing as yet.
The back benches could start to become discontented if this continues, which I think it may.
It shows Rishi as best PM to Starmer at 39%/38% which is surprising in such a short time
Maybe wait until the Autumn statement on the 17th November and the reaction to a very important event for most everyone
If the Tories are sensible they will go for some dramatic fundraising tax changes that give them plenty of headroom nearer the election. Ideas have been discussed here ad infinitum for weeks. Whether they are that brave, we’ll have to see.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
I've just seen the Redfield & Wilton poll. So that's two polls with fieldwork taken since Rishi became PM showing Labour with 28% and now 32% leads.
I was expecting at least some sort of honeymoon bounce. This shows nothing as yet.
The back benches could start to become discontented if this continues, which I think it may.
It shows Rishi as best PM to Starmer at 39%/38% which is surprising in such a short time
Maybe wait until the Autumn statement on the 17th November and the reaction to a very important event for most everyone
If the Tories are sensible they will go for some dramatic fundraising tax changes that give them plenty of headroom nearer the election. Ideas have been discussed here ad infinitum for weeks. Whether they are that brave, we’ll have to see.
I expect windfall taxes on energy and banks and it would be good if Rishi imposed a super tax on the rich and even banned non doms
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
Another John Major echo.
The Conservatives did slowly, painfully haul themselves back from their nadir in summer 1995. Their polling average then was about 24%, and they got back to 31% in 1997. And that was with the economy (as the posters said) "Booming".
Beyond a certain point, a lot of voters stop listening. Not all of them; 31 is bigger than 24. But as with people, political parties eventually annoy others so much that the apologies aren't heard, and anything that goes well is uncreditied.
I thought that ditching Johnson would be enough to get the Conservatives back on the same pitch as the other lot. Turns out that, fairly or not, the public anger with the Conservatives goes wider than that.
There is one other factor that is different from 1997: Sir Keir is no Blair. Blair was popular in his own right and had a policy plan.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
I don't bet and am not a LAB fan but I think LAB maj is the most likely outcome at the moment maybe LAN seats 335 to 345 so maj 20 to 60 DYOR 👍
That's about where I am. Cons up to 33% and Labour on 350 seats.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
You are ruling out the possibility [...] It’s just far too early to tell
I am and it isn't.
It's over.
The only question is the scale of the Conservative losses.
I've just seen the Redfield & Wilton poll. So that's two polls with fieldwork taken since Rishi became PM showing Labour with 28% and now 32% leads.
I was expecting at least some sort of honeymoon bounce. This shows nothing as yet.
The back benches could start to become discontented if this continues, which I think it may.
It shows Rishi as best PM to Starmer at 39%/38% which is surprising in such a short time
Maybe wait until the Autumn statement on the 17th November and the reaction to a very important event for most everyone
If the Tories are sensible they will go for some dramatic fundraising tax changes that give them plenty of headroom nearer the election. Ideas have been discussed here ad infinitum for weeks. Whether they are that brave, we’ll have to see.
I expect windfall taxes on energy and banks and it would be good if Rishi imposed a super tax on the rich and even banned non doms
Predicament for Nicola Sturgeon. If she withdraws whip from 9 who voted against/abstained on GRR, she loses her majority and is in hock to Greens. If she doesn't act, she loses authority in group. Whatever, she is no longer omnipotent. Interesting.
Predicament for Nicola Sturgeon. If she withdraws whip from 9 who voted against/abstained on GRR, she loses her majority and is in hock to Greens. If she doesn't act, she loses authority in group. Whatever, she is no longer omnipotent. Interesting.
Nobody has ever got rich betting on Nicola Sturgeon losing her authority.
Don't like the woman, but she is an extraordinary talent.
Amazing that only 9 had the backbone to vote against/abstain. Some of the cowards may live to regret it. Sturgeon makes Boris look like an honest , principled Gentleman of morals.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
No, take a look at the leader ratings. Rishi is beginning to pull back the huge deficit that Liz Truss created. That takes time to fees through into the VI.
I was surprised tonight that he has overtaken Starmer as best PM
Any PB’er astonished that the first PM for a while that Leon hasn’t promised will surprise us on the upside, actually starts off by surprising us on the upside, must be very new to the site. Welcome!
I've just seen the Redfield & Wilton poll. So that's two polls with fieldwork taken since Rishi became PM showing Labour with 28% and now 32% leads.
I was expecting at least some sort of honeymoon bounce. This shows nothing as yet.
The back benches could start to become discontented if this continues, which I think it may.
It shows Rishi as best PM to Starmer at 39%/38% which is surprising in such a short time
Maybe wait until the Autumn statement on the 17th November and the reaction to a very important event for most everyone
If the Tories are sensible they will go for some dramatic fundraising tax changes that give them plenty of headroom nearer the election. Ideas have been discussed here ad infinitum for weeks. Whether they are that brave, we’ll have to see.
I expect windfall taxes on energy and banks and it would be good if Rishi imposed a super tax on the rich and even banned non doms
Now that would be extraordinary but who knows
I trust that means the status not the people !
The resulting stampede to the exit would be broadly the same.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Hmm. I think I would disagree. Surely that 16% covers the black (or white) swan event that brings a Tory majority into play. Two years is a bloody lifetime in modern politics and I think I would be tempted by a small flutter on the possibility of a Tory majority as long as it was money I could afford to lose.
Agreed:
Politics is febrile. It's entirely possible something happens between now and then. And 6-1 on a Tory majority? That sounds about right to me.
Bond yields klaxon! UK 10y yields now below the level we saw when the mini budget was revealed. I think there's still a very small premium (maybe 10-15bp) because bond prices went up globally today.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
No, take a look at the leader ratings. Rishi is beginning to pull back the huge deficit that Liz Truss created. That takes time to fees through into the VI.
I was surprised tonight that he has overtaken Starmer as best PM
Any PB’er astonished that the first PM for a while that Leon hasn’t promised will surprise us on the upside, actually starts off by surprising us on the upside, must be very new to the site. Welcome!
Joined September 2014 and 54,761 posts later and I am still learning
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
No, take a look at the leader ratings. Rishi is beginning to pull back the huge deficit that Liz Truss created. That takes time to fees through into the VI.
I was surprised tonight that he has overtaken Starmer as best PM
Any PB’er astonished that the first PM for a while that Leon hasn’t promised will surprise us on the upside, actually starts off by surprising us on the upside, must be very new to the site. Welcome!
Joined September 2014 and 54,761 posts later and I am still learning
Lesson number one: don’t vote for Boris. Just don’t.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
No, take a look at the leader ratings. Rishi is beginning to pull back the huge deficit that Liz Truss created. That takes time to fees through into the VI.
I was surprised tonight that he has overtaken Starmer as best PM
Any PB’er astonished that the first PM for a while that Leon hasn’t promised will surprise us on the upside, actually starts off by surprising us on the upside, must be very new to the site. Welcome!
Joined September 2014 and 54,761 posts later and I am still learning
Lesson number one: don’t vote for Boris. Just don’t.
I didn't in the members vote ( I was a member of the party then)
Pleased to speak with @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz this afternoon.
I'm looking forward to working closely with him, as we did as finance ministers, to ensure we maintain pressure on Putin, support Ukraine and safeguard our energy security for the future.
What on earth has Britain's energy security got to do with Germany, or vice versa?
They have lots of storage facilities while we have none for one. England sells them it cheap in summer and buy it back expensive in winter. They take ours for nothing and sell us it back even more expensive mind you.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Hmm. I think I would disagree. Surely that 16% covers the black (or white) swan event that brings a Tory majority into play. Two years is a bloody lifetime in modern politics and I think I would be tempted by a small flutter on the possibility of a Tory majority as long as it was money I could afford to lose.
As I said, Richard, you may disagree with my percentages and in fairness I have to say that backing the outsider of three is often the value.
I should know, I did it at Cheltenham recently and it trotted up at 4/1 !
The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Hmm. I think I would disagree. Surely that 16% covers the black (or white) swan event that brings a Tory majority into play. Two years is a bloody lifetime in modern politics and I think I would be tempted by a small flutter on the possibility of a Tory majority as long as it was money I could afford to lose.
Agreed:
Politics is febrile. It's entirely possible something happens between now and then. And 6-1 on a Tory majority? That sounds about right to me.
I agree - laying Labour majority is the value bet right now. The election is likely two years away, and there will be ups and downs between times. The key is watching the bet and choosing the right time to trade out.
Underlying all the recent Tory turmoil is the lack of enthusiasm for Labour. The Chester by-election is potentially interesting with this in mind, but I have yet to pick up any intelliegence as to what campaigning the LibDems have been doing in the seat.
Much as it dismays me, I am forced to agree with @Heathener
The people have decided. They want the Tories gone. Sunak should reduce the scale of the disaster and maybe even reduce PM starmer to leading a NOM Govt, but even that is wildly optimistic
There is one caveat. A black swan. And right now black swans are quite plentiful. Unfortunately
I think the caveats outweigh the possibility of 'certainty' about the next election.
Why black swans are so plentiful that they are not a threatened species any more I do not know, but it seems to me we are all just waiting for the next one. With unknown political consequence.
And even if all the swans are shades of grey, public sentiment shifts with greater rapidity. Labour do not appear as competent as in Blair's time as LOTO. Burgon, Abbott and Long Bailey are around still. The shadow CoE and treasury team is fantastically weak compared with the Hunt setup. The Tories have gone (for today anyway) from a riotous shambles to a semblance of a government in a single week.
The markets give roughly a 33% chance of the next GE outcome not being an SKS government. That is ungenerous to SKS but a 20% chance would not be wrong. I lose 1/4 bets all the time. And SKS can too.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Hmm. I think I would disagree. Surely that 16% covers the black (or white) swan event that brings a Tory majority into play. Two years is a bloody lifetime in modern politics and I think I would be tempted by a small flutter on the possibility of a Tory majority as long as it was money I could afford to lose.
Agreed:
Politics is febrile. It's entirely possible something happens between now and then. And 6-1 on a Tory majority? That sounds about right to me.
My thinking just goes back to 2010. For a time in the run up, the Tories were getting 20pt leads and many assumed an overall majority was a shoe in. But in the end, winning that many seats is still a hell of an ask. No matter how large the Labour polling lead, I therefore favour NOM, and as far as a Tory majority goes I think victory in Ukraine leading to energy price drops, and a Biden engineered boom, still might create a feel good factor by the end of 2024.
Bond yields klaxon! UK 10y yields now below the level we saw when the mini budget was revealed. I think there's still a very small premium (maybe 10-15bp) because bond prices went up globally today.
Would it surprise you to know that I haven't an effing clue what you are talking about?
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Giving in to the ERG on Day One has probably sunk his chances. Which were extremely slim anyway.
It struck me as a sign of weakness, but it's early days.
I suspect it’ll be rock solid “it's early days” right up until the polling stations close.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Hmm. I think I would disagree. Surely that 16% covers the black (or white) swan event that brings a Tory majority into play. Two years is a bloody lifetime in modern politics and I think I would be tempted by a small flutter on the possibility of a Tory majority as long as it was money I could afford to lose.
Agreed:
Politics is febrile. It's entirely possible something happens between now and then. And 6-1 on a Tory majority? That sounds about right to me.
My thinking just goes back to 2010. For a time in the run up, the Tories were getting 20pt leads and many assumed an overall majority was a shoe in. But in the end, winning that many seats is still a hell of an ask. No matter how large the Labour polling lead, I therefore favour NOM, and as far as a Tory majority goes I think victory in Ukraine leading to energy price drops, and a Biden engineered boom, still might create a feel good factor by the end of 2024.
"No matter how large the Labour polling lead" is just irrational.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
So the secret to saving the Union is to get Judi Dench and some other national treasures to star in a film about the Act of Union?
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Giving in to the ERG on Day One has probably sunk his chances. Which were extremely slim anyway.
It struck me as a sign of weakness, but it's early days.
I suspect it’ll be rock solid “it's early days” right up until the polling stations close.
"We still expect a small Conservative majority" (c) 1997 The Entire Cabinet up to and including the first results coming in.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Hmm. I think I would disagree. Surely that 16% covers the black (or white) swan event that brings a Tory majority into play. Two years is a bloody lifetime in modern politics and I think I would be tempted by a small flutter on the possibility of a Tory majority as long as it was money I could afford to lose.
Agreed:
Politics is febrile. It's entirely possible something happens between now and then. And 6-1 on a Tory majority? That sounds about right to me.
My thinking just goes back to 2010. For a time in the run up, the Tories were getting 20pt leads and many assumed an overall majority was a shoe in. But in the end, winning that many seats is still a hell of an ask. No matter how large the Labour polling lead, I therefore favour NOM, and as far as a Tory majority goes I think victory in Ukraine leading to energy price drops, and a Biden engineered boom, still might create a feel good factor by the end of 2024.
"No matter how large the Labour polling lead" is just irrational.
Well I assume that it won’t get larger than it is today. And for the sake of not writing 10,000 it’s was implicit rather than explicit in my post that it will melt away by the election like they usually do for oppositions, allowing the fundamentals of needing so many seats to bite.
Bond yields klaxon! UK 10y yields now below the level we saw when the mini budget was revealed. I think there's still a very small premium (maybe 10-15bp) because bond prices went up globally today.
Would it surprise you to know that I haven't an effing clue what you are talking about?
Predicament for Nicola Sturgeon. If she withdraws whip from 9 who voted against/abstained on GRR, she loses her majority and is in hock to Greens. If she doesn't act, she loses authority in group. Whatever, she is no longer omnipotent. Interesting.
Nobody has ever got rich betting on Nicola Sturgeon losing her authority.
Don't like the woman, but she is an extraordinary talent.
Amazing that only 9 had the backbone to vote against/abstain. Some of the cowards may live to regret it. Sturgeon makes Boris look like an honest , principled Gentleman of morals.
Kate Forbes, who is a bit traditional about things being a Wee Free, has taken decisive steps over this one and gone on maternity leave to avoid the vote. Maybe reading I Timothy 2.15 will help.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
So the secret to saving the Union is to get Judi Dench and some other national treasures to star in a film about the Act of Union?
Much as it dismays me, I am forced to agree with @Heathener
The people have decided. They want the Tories gone. Sunak should reduce the scale of the disaster and maybe even reduce PM starmer to leading a NOM Govt, but even that is wildly optimistic
There is one caveat. A black swan. And right now black swans are quite plentiful. Unfortunately
I think the caveats outweigh the possibility of 'certainty' about the next election.
Why black swans are so plentiful that they are not a threatened species any more I do not know, but it seems to me we are all just waiting for the next one. With unknown political consequence.
And even if all the swans are shades of grey, public sentiment shifts with greater rapidity. Labour do not appear as competent as in Blair's time as LOTO. Burgon, Abbott and Long Bailey are around still. The shadow CoE and treasury team is fantastically weak compared with the Hunt setup. The Tories have gone (for today anyway) from a riotous shambles to a semblance of a government in a single week.
The markets give roughly a 33% chance of the next GE outcome not being an SKS government. That is ungenerous to SKS but a 20% chance would not be wrong. I lose 1/4 bets all the time. And SKS can too.
Don't put the farm on it yet.
Black Swans (Cygnus atratus) are status "Least Concern" so they are indeed quite plentiful.
Do they have White Swan events in Australia?
I don't think there's a chance the Tories can win. The worst possible outcome of a hung parliament with a left coalition majority overall and a Tory majority in England seems quite likely on the 'banter' timeline.
Bond yields klaxon! UK 10y yields now below the level we saw when the mini budget was revealed. I think there's still a very small premium (maybe 10-15bp) because bond prices went up globally today.
Mortgage fixes have come down too. I was thinking I might be paying 7% when I have to switch. Now I'm hoping it might be around 5%. Still more expensive than current tho.
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Giving in to the ERG on Day One has probably sunk his chances. Which were extremely slim anyway.
It struck me as a sign of weakness, but it's early days.
It strikes me that Rishi is more right wing than people assume.
I think it is highly likely that Labour will win the next election, but to claim that Labour will increase its lead from 30% seems completely irrational to me.
Heath won 37% in February 1974, Callaghan won 37% in 1979, Major won 31% in 1997, and Brown won 30% in 2010 , notwithstanding all the problems on their watch. I'd expect the current government to match that kind of range.
Possibly. 4 polls this week - movement of 8 in this, 9 in yougov and 12 in the red wall versus 3 in Redfield national. Suggests a small bounce has commenced. Basement bounce nonetheless
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
So the secret to saving the Union is to get Judi Dench and some other national treasures to star in a film about the Act of Union?
Possibly. 4 polls this week - movement of 8 in this, 9 in yougov and 12 in the red wall versus 3 in Redfield national. Suggests a small bounce has commenced. Basement bounce nonetheless
I’d be amazed if he didn’t get a wee bounce. Truss was abominable.
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Giving in to the ERG on Day One has probably sunk his chances. Which were extremely slim anyway.
It struck me as a sign of weakness, but it's early days.
It strikes me that Rishi is more right wing than people assume.
That has struck me too. I'm not entirely sure where the idea he isn't has arisen from.
Pleased to speak with @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz this afternoon.
I'm looking forward to working closely with him, as we did as finance ministers, to ensure we maintain pressure on Putin, support Ukraine and safeguard our energy security for the future.
Perhaps a UK-De gas pipeline is a possible; though I am not sure how long it would take to build. That could be a win-win, since they have more energy storage. We have 20% of the LNG import facilities in Europe, and also potentially (I don't know the precise numbers) spare CCGT electricity generation facilities in advance of any new De investments coming on stream, as we have a lot of offshore wind coming on stream 2023-2025.
There is no electricity interconnector UK-Germany, but one coming on stream in 2024 - so it won't be that, unless just to talk about how UK can support De and vice-versa.
Or it could be that Scholz is pointing out alternatives to lean on Mons. Macron.
Predicament for Nicola Sturgeon. If she withdraws whip from 9 who voted against/abstained on GRR, she loses her majority and is in hock to Greens. If she doesn't act, she loses authority in group. Whatever, she is no longer omnipotent. Interesting.
Predicament for Nicola Sturgeon. If she withdraws whip from 9 who voted against/abstained on GRR, she loses her majority and is in hock to Greens. If she doesn't act, she loses authority in group. Whatever, she is no longer omnipotent. Interesting.
I think it is highly likely that Labour will win the next election, but to claim that Labour will increase its lead from 30% seems completely irrational to me.
Heath won 37% in February 1974, Callaghan won 37% in 1979, Major won 31% in 1997, and Brown won 30% in 2010 , notwithstanding all the problems on their watch. I'd expect the current government to match that kind of range.
All good longstanding Labour supporters remember 1992. As such, we’re a pessimistic bunch when it comes to elections. Last week, I thought the 2024 election might be close. I still hold that view this week.
The outcome of the last 12 months of Tory failure is that Labour have a chance. I put it no stronger than that. To win, Labour will have to work hard. I am old fart. In my lifetime, Labour have only won a majority from opposition once.
This is an amazing story. Seems that Facebook have already spent $100bn on Zuckerberg's weird metaverse obsession with loads more to come. The measure of the madness is that it makes Elon Musk look like the sanest Billionaire tech bro.
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Giving in to the ERG on Day One has probably sunk his chances. Which were extremely slim anyway.
It struck me as a sign of weakness, but it's early days.
It strikes me that Rishi is more right wing than people assume.
That has struck me too. I'm not entirely sure where the idea he isn't has arisen from.
Because compared to the rest of them, notably the Johnson cabal led by Truss, he isn't.
But that's a bit like saying compared to Putin, Orban isn't that autocratic really.
He's right wing, just not as ideologically inflexible and dogmatic as the others.
I can see, from that point of view, why he got on with Johnson for a long while.
Possibly. 4 polls this week - movement of 8 in this, 9 in yougov and 12 in the red wall versus 3 in Redfield national. Suggests a small bounce has commenced. Basement bounce nonetheless
I’d be amazed if he didn’t get a wee bounce. Truss was abominable.
Bond yields klaxon! UK 10y yields now below the level we saw when the mini budget was revealed. I think there's still a very small premium (maybe 10-15bp) because bond prices went up globally today.
Would it surprise you to know that I haven't an effing clue what you are talking about?
Is that good or bad?
Good. It means that the people/institutions buying bonds are not asking for such a high return to take them off the Government's hands. High bond yields generally indicate a lack of confidence in a country's economic outlook. Hence the reason they shot up after the mini budget.
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Giving in to the ERG on Day One has probably sunk his chances. Which were extremely slim anyway.
It struck me as a sign of weakness, but it's early days.
It strikes me that Rishi is more right wing than people assume.
That has struck me too. I'm not entirely sure where the idea he isn't has arisen from.
From the simple idea that my enemy's enemy is my friend, and Boris supporters loathed him.
Bond yields klaxon! UK 10y yields now below the level we saw when the mini budget was revealed. I think there's still a very small premium (maybe 10-15bp) because bond prices went up globally today.
Would it surprise you to know that I haven't an effing clue what you are talking about?
Is that good or bad?
Good. It means that the people/institutions buying bonds are not asking for such a high return to take them off the Government's hands. High bond yields generally indicate a lack of confidence in a country's economic outlook. Hence the reason they shot up after the mini budget.
Thanks Richard. I might have guessed but the terminology does for me.
Possibly. 4 polls this week - movement of 8 in this, 9 in yougov and 12 in the red wall versus 3 in Redfield national. Suggests a small bounce has commenced. Basement bounce nonetheless
I’d be amazed if he didn’t get a wee bounce. Truss was abominable.
Truss abominable yes. Yeti could turn out to be almost as bad.
@maxseddon Putin's big foreign policy speech is underway.
He accuses the west of "escalating" tensions worldwide by "fanning the flames of war in Ukraine, provocations in Taiwan," and creating the global food crisis.
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Giving in to the ERG on Day One has probably sunk his chances. Which were extremely slim anyway.
It struck me as a sign of weakness, but it's early days.
It strikes me that Rishi is more right wing than people assume.
That has struck me too. I'm not entirely sure where the idea he isn't has arisen from.
Life since Feb 2020, only moments after getting Brexit done was the only show in town, has been a continuous stream of giving away free money from the treasury and a Niagara of tax, spend and borrow. There was of course no real alternative. That is no way to acquire an austerity reputation. Let's see how it looks by Christmas.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Hmm. I think I would disagree. Surely that 16% covers the black (or white) swan event that brings a ory majority into play. Two years is a bloody lifetime in modern politics and I think I would be tempted by a small flutter on the possibility of a Tory majority as long as it was money I could afford to lose.
I disagree as well.
I think it's highly likely the voters have had enough of the Tories, and want a change regardless, but the next election possibly isn't until 2025 - and that's a lifetime away.
The long-term economic indicators are already better than they were a few weeks ago on gas prices, general inflation and interest rates. The cost of borrowing is coming down. The Ukraine war might end. Sunak has crept ahead (already) on best PM over Starmer. He is taking interesting initiatives on education and thinking creatively about the Treasury. He might sort out the boats.
That points to me of a strong possibility (not probability) he surprises on the upside and, given how volatile politics is these days with very little party loyalty, could easily lead to a reversal and a hung parliament in late 2024/early 2025.
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
Comments
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Don't like the woman, but she is an extraordinary talent.
Osborne's Conservatives trail Starmer's Labour Party by 20 points in the latest poll.
Also it is the G20 meeting in Bali on the 15th and 16th November which I am sure he will attend
The biggest 'context' is that Labour ran with Corbyn last time. That reminds me of a professional punter I knew who referred to a particular jockey as 'the ten pound penalty'!
You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
The only times I ever see Braveheart mentioned - for the last decade or so - are on PB and on crap London newspaper editorials.
a) the Tory media; and
b) reality.
Now that would be extraordinary but who knows
Sturgeon makes Boris look like an honest , principled Gentleman of morals.
Politics is febrile. It's entirely possible something happens between now and then. And 6-1 on a Tory majority? That sounds about right to me.
I should know, I did it at Cheltenham recently and it trotted up at 4/1 !
Underlying all the recent Tory turmoil is the lack of enthusiasm for Labour. The Chester by-election is potentially interesting with this in mind, but I have yet to pick up any intelliegence as to what campaigning the LibDems have been doing in the seat.
Why black swans are so plentiful that they are not a threatened species any more I do not know, but it seems to me we are all just waiting for the next one. With unknown political consequence.
And even if all the swans are shades of grey, public sentiment shifts with greater rapidity. Labour do not appear as competent as in Blair's time as LOTO. Burgon, Abbott and Long Bailey are around still. The shadow CoE and treasury team is fantastically weak compared with the Hunt setup. The Tories have gone (for today anyway) from a riotous shambles to a semblance of a government in a single week.
The markets give roughly a 33% chance of the next GE outcome not being an SKS government. That is ungenerous to SKS but a 20% chance would not be wrong. I lose 1/4 bets all the time. And SKS can too.
Don't put the farm on it yet.
Are enthusiastic PB Tories getting ahead of themselves or are they seers?
Is that good or bad?
Who should we get to write the screenplay?
Retread catastrophic Tory shitebag governments are worse.
https://www.bbc.com/historyofthebbc/anniversaries/december/culloden/
Do they have White Swan events in Australia?
I don't think there's a chance the Tories can win. The worst possible outcome of a hung parliament with a left coalition majority overall and a Tory majority in England seems quite likely on the 'banter' timeline.
🌹LAB: 51% (-2)
🌳CON: 20% (+6)
🔶LDM: 9% (-2)
They were the 14% Tory pollsters last week
Heath won 37% in February 1974, Callaghan won 37% in 1979, Major won 31% in 1997, and Brown won 30% in 2010 , notwithstanding all the problems on their watch. I'd expect the current government to match that kind of range.
I'm not entirely sure where the idea he isn't has arisen from.
Bmg 23 point lead 49 to 26, Sunak leads by 1 as PM
Last BMG was late Sept 47 to 30 taken after the budget but before the bond market/sterling and mortgage rate collapse
One is because France has been blocking a gas pipeline from Spain to Germany *, which would have allowe Germany to leverage Spanish LNG import terminals / avoid sabotage threats. No idea how tightly this is tied up with the current France-Germany spat, but France made threats wrt Jersey energy supplies.
* https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-spain-stick-plan-build-new-gas-pipeline-draft-document-2022-10-05/
Perhaps a UK-De gas pipeline is a possible; though I am not sure how long it would take to build. That could be a win-win, since they have more energy storage. We have 20% of the LNG import facilities in Europe, and also potentially (I don't know the precise numbers) spare CCGT electricity generation facilities in advance of any new De investments coming on stream, as we have a lot of offshore wind coming on stream 2023-2025.
There is no electricity interconnector UK-Germany, but one coming on stream in 2024 - so it won't be that, unless just to talk about how UK can support De and vice-versa.
Or it could be that Scholz is pointing out alternatives to lean on Mons. Macron.
The outcome of the last 12 months of Tory failure is that Labour have a chance. I put it no stronger than that. To win, Labour will have to work hard. I am old fart. In my lifetime, Labour have only won a majority from opposition once.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/oct/27/metas-shares-dip-is-proof-metaverse-plan-never-really-had-legs-facebook
https://twitter.com/jennyflower/status/1585281963979685889?s=46&t=UYkitfH-yxs9iNB1xKUlCA
Yes.
But that's a bit like saying compared to Putin, Orban isn't that autocratic really.
He's right wing, just not as ideologically inflexible and dogmatic as the others.
I can see, from that point of view, why he got on with Johnson for a long while.
Well, she made a splash taking the piss anyway.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1585638148792811523
@maxseddon
Putin's big foreign policy speech is underway.
He accuses the west of "escalating" tensions worldwide by "fanning the flames of war in Ukraine, provocations in Taiwan," and creating the global food crisis.
I think it's highly likely the voters have had enough of the Tories, and want a change regardless, but the next election possibly isn't until 2025 - and that's a lifetime away.
The long-term economic indicators are
already better than they were a few weeks ago on gas prices, general inflation and interest rates. The cost of borrowing is coming down. The Ukraine war might end. Sunak has crept ahead (already) on best PM over Starmer. He is taking interesting initiatives on education and thinking creatively about the Treasury. He might sort out the boats.
That points to me of a strong possibility (not probability) he surprises on the upside and, given how volatile politics is these days with very little party loyalty, could easily lead to a reversal and a hung parliament in late 2024/early 2025.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.