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By election betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
imageBy election betting – politicalbetting.com

This betting opportunity from Smarkets on a by election in Boris Johnson’s seat is intriguing. This isn’t a bet on the outcome of such a by election but whether there will be one.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    Hello, I must be going!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,232
    edited October 27
    First, like Zimbabwe.

    edit: rats. Beaten by Bev.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,232
    edited October 27
    And second, like Pakistan.

    Rats again. :(
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    Looks like control of the Senate will come down to the race in Georgia.

    Current 538 prediction:

    Dem 49.5%
    GOP 48.9%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    And second, like Pakistan.

    And third as well, like England will be in their group if they don't bat rather better in their remaining matches.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'm just wondering whether it might be worth putting a small bet on the LibDems in the City of Chester by-election. It's the sort of place where they have the potential to do better than expected.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    “The Daily Show” giving the NYT a run for its money on “bad takes on the U.K.”

    Unpacking the backlash against new UK PM Rishi Sunak

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1585240576537944065

    Is Trevor Noah as ignorant as he projects?

    "England's first Prime Minister" in the first 5 seconds. Duh.
    It's not as if nobody in the UK ever does this. I've lost count of the times that I've heard English people refer to the UK as "England".
    It has to be admitted that members of the Scottish Government party love referring to the UK Govt as "English" :smile: .
    Can you give some examples of that?
    And excluding those cases which are (accurately) discussing their UKG responsibilities as English.
    Like comparitive performance in the devolved health services for example?
    Though posting stuff like this can lead to whiny complaints of rayzism against the English.




    I’m shocked that BBC Scotland hasn’t reported those numbers. They are usually so keen on promoting Scottish success stories.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'd think with both this and the upcoming West Lancs by election the Tories will consider over 30% 'holding their own' and sub 25% 'trouble at mill'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'm just wondering whether it might be worth putting a small bet on the LibDems in the City of Chester by-election. It's the sort of place where they have the potential to do better than expected.
    I would advise against it.

    So it's probably an excellent idea.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 27
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'm just wondering whether it might be worth putting a small bet on the LibDems in the City of Chester by-election. It's the sort of place where they have the potential to do better than expected.
    No. 20% under Kennedy 2005 and 2010 Cleggmania and running againat a Labour party on 50% plus. They lost deposit in 2017
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'd think with both this and the upcoming West Lancs by election the Tories will consider over 30% 'holding their own' and sub 25% 'trouble at mill'
    If they stop at sub 25% in West Lancs I think they would count that a colossal win! Sub 15% would look more like it.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,768
    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    By election on December 1st
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'm just wondering whether it might be worth putting a small bet on the LibDems in the City of Chester by-election. It's the sort of place where they have the potential to do better than expected.
    Interesting thought. They did manage a 21.9% share of the vote in 2005, not a million miles from turning the seat into a three-way marginal.

    My assumption had been that the Lib Dems would have been working very hard preparing the ground for by-elections in the constituencies held by the soon-to-be Lordships from Johnson's resignation honours, and so wouldn't want to spread themselves too thinly.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 27
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'd think with both this and the upcoming West Lancs by election the Tories will consider over 30% 'holding their own' and sub 25% 'trouble at mill'
    If they stop at sub 25% in West Lancs I think they would count that a colossal win! Sub 15% would look more like it.
    15% would be half their 1997 vote here, there is no appreciable LD presence, sub 25% would be doing much worse than their worst performance ever in the seat. Sub 15 would be catastrophic and mean Lab likely retain the seat on ca 70% of the vote
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'd think with both this and the upcoming West Lancs by election the Tories will consider over 30% 'holding their own' and sub 25% 'trouble at mill'
    If they stop at sub 25% in West Lancs I think they would count that a colossal win! Sub 15% would look more like it.
    15% would be half their 1997 vote, there is no appreciable LD presence, sub 25% would be doing much worse than their worst performance ever in the seat. Sub 15 would be catastrophic and mean Lab likely retain the seat on ca 70% of the vote
    Like I say...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'm just wondering whether it might be worth putting a small bet on the LibDems in the City of Chester by-election. It's the sort of place where they have the potential to do better than expected.
    w/o Labour market perhaps.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,449

    Hello, I must be going!

    No Jacket Required.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'm just wondering whether it might be worth putting a small bet on the LibDems in the City of Chester by-election. It's the sort of place where they have the potential to do better than expected.
    I would advise against it.

    So it's probably an excellent idea.
    I can't see it; though it feels the sort of place that should have an LD tradition it doesn't.

    However the LDs were front runners in a few seats recently where they had been third. (Owen Paterson's especially). ASnd of course the Labour MP has been forced out in bad circumstances.

    Worth a nibble at the right price. But SFAICS the dynamics have shifted and the world is now a Lab v Con contest between two heavyweights, with the LDs as onlookers.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,177

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    “The Daily Show” giving the NYT a run for its money on “bad takes on the U.K.”

    Unpacking the backlash against new UK PM Rishi Sunak

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1585240576537944065

    Is Trevor Noah as ignorant as he projects?

    "England's first Prime Minister" in the first 5 seconds. Duh.
    It's not as if nobody in the UK ever does this. I've lost count of the times that I've heard English people refer to the UK as "England".
    It has to be admitted that members of the Scottish Government party love referring to the UK Govt as "English" :smile: .
    Can you give some examples of that?
    And excluding those cases which are (accurately) discussing their UKG responsibilities as English.
    Like comparitive performance in the devolved health services for example?
    Though posting stuff like this can lead to whiny complaints of rayzism against the English.




    I’m shocked that BBC Scotland hasn’t reported those numbers. They are usually so keen on promoting Scottish success stories.
    Has anybody heard from Jackie Baillie yet?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'd think with both this and the upcoming West Lancs by election the Tories will consider over 30% 'holding their own' and sub 25% 'trouble at mill'
    If they stop at sub 25% in West Lancs I think they would count that a colossal win! Sub 15% would look more like it.
    15% would be half their 1997 vote, there is no appreciable LD presence, sub 25% would be doing much worse than their worst performance ever in the seat. Sub 15 would be catastrophic and mean Lab likely retain the seat on ca 70% of the vote
    Like I say...
    Based on what? 15% would be underperforming their rock bottom Truss polling. Local by elections, the slight recovery seen so far under Sunak etc simply don't suggest a total collapse. They will be the opposition in this one, the stop labour vote such as it is goes to them.
    25% is poor enough without fantasy meltdowns
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'm just wondering whether it might be worth putting a small bet on the LibDems in the City of Chester by-election. It's the sort of place where they have the potential to do better than expected.
    I would advise against it.

    So it's probably an excellent idea.
    I can't see it; though it feels the sort of place that should have an LD tradition it doesn't.

    However the LDs were front runners in a few seats recently where they had been third. (Owen Paterson's especially). ASnd of course the Labour MP has been forced out in bad circumstances.

    Worth a nibble at the right price. But SFAICS the dynamics have shifted and the world is now a Lab v Con contest between two heavyweights, with the LDs as onlookers.
    It's not far from Oswestry either, although it's a very different sort of seat.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    edited October 27
    Now Modi:

    Thank you Prime Minister @NarendraModi
    for your kind words as I get started in my new role.

    The UK and India share so much. I'm excited about what our two great democracies can achieve as we deepen our security, defence and economic partnership in the months & years ahead.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1585645864261156870

    Glad to speak to
    @RishiSunak today. Congratulated him on assuming charge as UK PM. We will work together to further strengthen our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. We also agreed on the importance of early conclusion of a comprehensive and balanced FTA.


    https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1585643229034483712
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Are there any markets on the new Stormont election now expected in December?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'd think with both this and the upcoming West Lancs by election the Tories will consider over 30% 'holding their own' and sub 25% 'trouble at mill'
    If they stop at sub 25% in West Lancs I think they would count that a colossal win! Sub 15% would look more like it.
    15% would be half their 1997 vote, there is no appreciable LD presence, sub 25% would be doing much worse than their worst performance ever in the seat. Sub 15 would be catastrophic and mean Lab likely retain the seat on ca 70% of the vote
    Like I say...
    Based on what? 15% would be underperforming their rock bottom Truss polling. Local by elections, the slight recovery seen so far under Sunak etc simply don't suggest a total collapse. They will be the opposition in this one, the stop labour vote such as it is goes to them.
    25% is poor enough without fantasy meltdowns
    We will see. My instinct is that the Tories will do if anything slightly worse than their polling in both of these seats because they can be represented as a free hit against the government. But my instinct is of course usually as sound as a DfE policy made up after lunch.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 27
    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'm just wondering whether it might be worth putting a small bet on the LibDems in the City of Chester by-election. It's the sort of place where they have the potential to do better than expected.
    I would advise against it.

    So it's probably an excellent idea.
    I can't see it; though it feels the sort of place that should have an LD tradition it doesn't.

    However the LDs were front runners in a few seats recently where they had been third. (Owen Paterson's especially). ASnd of course the Labour MP has been forced out in bad circumstances.

    Worth a nibble at the right price. But SFAICS the dynamics have shifted and the world is now a Lab v Con contest between two heavyweights, with the LDs as onlookers.
    LD by election successes are almost exclusively protest successes. There is nothing to protest here, the opposition are already in pole position. LD lost deposit a better bet imo.
  • Apparently, the name Keir means dark or swarthy from Scottish Gaelic 'ciar'

    The word keir (also spelt kier) means a bleaching vat, from Old Norse 'ker'

    Was Sir Keir dipped in a keir?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on Chester yet?

    Should be the easiest of easy holds for Labour, but the Tory share will be interesting given it was a swing seat not that long ago.

    I'd think with both this and the upcoming West Lancs by election the Tories will consider over 30% 'holding their own' and sub 25% 'trouble at mill'
    If they stop at sub 25% in West Lancs I think they would count that a colossal win! Sub 15% would look more like it.
    15% would be half their 1997 vote, there is no appreciable LD presence, sub 25% would be doing much worse than their worst performance ever in the seat. Sub 15 would be catastrophic and mean Lab likely retain the seat on ca 70% of the vote
    Like I say...
    Based on what? 15% would be underperforming their rock bottom Truss polling. Local by elections, the slight recovery seen so far under Sunak etc simply don't suggest a total collapse. They will be the opposition in this one, the stop labour vote such as it is goes to them.
    25% is poor enough without fantasy meltdowns
    We will see. My instinct is that the Tories will do if anything slightly worse than their polling in both of these seats because they can be represented as a free hit against the government. But my instinct is of course usually as sound as a DfE policy made up after lunch.
    Chester might be more challenging as it ceases to be a seat after review and thus they are apparently struggling to find someone local to be a crash test dummy
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Pulpstar said:

    Early NV data:

    https://twitter.com/bazingab00/status/1585628209294581760/photo/1

    I think all you can glean from this is that it's going to be tight.

    Statewide Dem registered voter number advantage doesn't look high enough for me based on September figures. Once the October figures are out I will make my final pronouncement.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203

    For those following the USS (pre-92 universities) pension scandal...

    https://www.ucu.org.uk/article/12587/Lost-USS-pension-benefits-can-be-returned-and-backdated-trustee-data-confirms?utm

    "the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS) trustee has released new information which shows the scheme is in such a healthy position that those lost benefits could be paid back, backdated to April - and still leave the scheme in surplus."

    What happens exactly, when someone’s nose starts to extend faster than the speed of light?

    Asking for an academic friend.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 892
    Off topic, but congratulations are in order to the Kent Wildlife Trust on the birth of their new baby: "[Tom] Gibbs discovered that Female 2’s days-long departure from the herd was actually the best-case scenario: She had secluded herself to give birth to the first wild bison born in Britain in more than six millennia."
    source$:https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/10/27/baby-bison-uk-rewilding-wildlife/

    The first in more than 6,000 years deserves some notice.

    The calf appears to be doing well, judging by the article and the pictures in it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    First PM Sunak poll, by YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 64%
    Con 16%
    LD 9%
    Ref 7%
    Grn 4%

    Rest of South
    Lab 46%
    Con 29%
    LD 14%
    Ref 6%
    Grn 4%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 53%
    Con 25%
    Ref 6%
    LD 6%
    PC 5%
    Grn 3%

    North
    Lab 60%
    Con 20%
    Ref 8%
    LD 6%
    Grn 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 46%
    Lab 25%
    Con 19%
    LD 5%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 1%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1646; Fieldwork: 25-26 October 2022)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644

    For those following the USS (pre-92 universities) pension scandal...

    https://www.ucu.org.uk/article/12587/Lost-USS-pension-benefits-can-be-returned-and-backdated-trustee-data-confirms?utm

    "the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS) trustee has released new information which shows the scheme is in such a healthy position that those lost benefits could be paid back, backdated to April - and still leave the scheme in surplus."

    Nice - so my extra payments weren't so crucial after all...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Just a Tory member of the House of Lords calling the RSPB lying turds.

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1585594129874128897?s=46&t=g0hOX_7juKJm38OTfiMcAA

    Attacking the RSPB is unwise.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697

    Now Modi:

    Thank you Prime Minister @NarendraModi
    for your kind words as I get started in my new role.

    The UK and India share so much. I'm excited about what our two great democracies can achieve as we deepen our security, defence and economic partnership in the months & years ahead.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1585645864261156870

    Glad to speak to
    @RishiSunak today. Congratulated him on assuming charge as UK PM. We will work together to further strengthen our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. We also agreed on the importance of early conclusion of a comprehensive and balanced FTA.


    https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1585643229034483712

    Sunak needs to tell Modi to get his act together wrt Russia.
  • Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    “The Daily Show” giving the NYT a run for its money on “bad takes on the U.K.”

    Unpacking the backlash against new UK PM Rishi Sunak

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1585240576537944065

    Is Trevor Noah as ignorant as he projects?

    "England's first Prime Minister" in the first 5 seconds. Duh.
    It's not as if nobody in the UK ever does this. I've lost count of the times that I've heard English people refer to the UK as "England".
    It has to be admitted that members of the Scottish Government party love referring to the UK Govt as "English" :smile: .
    Can you give some examples of that?
    And excluding those cases which are (accurately) discussing their UKG responsibilities as English.
    Like comparitive performance in the devolved health services for example?
    Though posting stuff like this can lead to whiny complaints of rayzism against the English.




    I’m shocked that BBC Scotland hasn’t reported those numbers. They are usually so keen on promoting Scottish success stories.
    Especially as it's totally controlled by the SNP if you believe some folk on here.
  • First PM Sunak poll, by YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 64%
    Con 16%
    LD 9%
    Ref 7%
    Grn 4%

    Rest of South
    Lab 46%
    Con 29%
    LD 14%
    Ref 6%
    Grn 4%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 53%
    Con 25%
    Ref 6%
    LD 6%
    PC 5%
    Grn 3%

    North
    Lab 60%
    Con 20%
    Ref 8%
    LD 6%
    Grn 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 46%
    Lab 25%
    Con 19%
    LD 5%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 1%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1646; Fieldwork: 25-26 October 2022)

    I really have to say why would anyone expect much movement in the polls a couple of days after Rishi became PM and especially before the November 17th statement

    Indeed I have maintained all along the polls next April and May will be a better test of just how he and the conservative party is performing
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150

    Now Modi:

    Thank you Prime Minister @NarendraModi
    for your kind words as I get started in my new role.

    The UK and India share so much. I'm excited about what our two great democracies can achieve as we deepen our security, defence and economic partnership in the months & years ahead.


    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1585645864261156870

    Glad to speak to
    @RishiSunak today. Congratulated him on assuming charge as UK PM. We will work together to further strengthen our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. We also agreed on the importance of early conclusion of a comprehensive and balanced FTA.


    https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1585643229034483712

    Sunak needs to tell Modi to get his act together wrt Russia.
    I think the days of British Prime Ministers telling Indian leaders what to do are behind us…
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771
    edited October 27

    Just a Tory member of the House of Lords calling the RSPB lying turds.

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1585594129874128897?s=46&t=g0hOX_7juKJm38OTfiMcAA

    Attacking the RSPB is unwise.

    Unwise, yes. But the outrage originally appeared to be about something that hadn't actually happened.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like control of the Senate will come down to the race in Georgia.

    Current 538 prediction:

    Dem 49.5%
    GOP 48.9%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

    If the polls are right... then (yes) it all comes down to Georgia*.

    But I have a sneaking suspicion the polls will not be right. I suspect they will - in most every race - be wrong by 3-4 points. And that the direction of wrong will be fairly uniform, and therefore either the Republicans will outperform by 3-4 points, or the Democrats will.

    I therefore think that the Republicans will either hold PA, and win GA, AZ and NV. (And maybe even CO too. Although NH is probably a bit of a stretch.)

    Or the Dems will hold GA, AZ, CO, NV, and win PA, and quite possibly NC and WI too. With OH being an unlikely but not impossible ask

    It is also far from impossible that McMullin wins in Utah. Deseret News has seen Lee's lead come down by a point every week, and had him at just four points ahead. And the most recent polls - from Hill Research - even showed McMullin leading by 8 points.

    * Do remember that - in Georgia - if you fail to get 50%, there's a run-off election. And that there is a Libertarian candidate who will likely get 3% of the vote. If the polls are right, then a run-off is highly likely.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Just a Tory member of the House of Lords calling the RSPB lying turds.

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1585594129874128897?s=46&t=g0hOX_7juKJm38OTfiMcAA

    Attacking the RSPB is unwise.

    Just rhyming slang, surely?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    First PM Sunak poll, by YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 64%
    Con 16%
    LD 9%
    Ref 7%
    Grn 4%

    Rest of South
    Lab 46%
    Con 29%
    LD 14%
    Ref 6%
    Grn 4%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 53%
    Con 25%
    Ref 6%
    LD 6%
    PC 5%
    Grn 3%

    North
    Lab 60%
    Con 20%
    Ref 8%
    LD 6%
    Grn 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 46%
    Lab 25%
    Con 19%
    LD 5%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 1%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1646; Fieldwork: 25-26 October 2022)

    I really have to say why would anyone expect much movement in the polls a couple of days after Rishi became PM and especially before the November 17th statement

    Indeed I have maintained all along the polls next April and May will be a better test of just how he and the conservative party is performing
    I concur. But a starving man must eat! 😉
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    While US commentators discuss the “backlash” against Sunak, a reminder from history:

    The Battle of Bamber Bridge, 1943.

    Racist US military police attacked black US troops on British soil.

    US military authorities demanded the town’s pubs impose a colour bar, the local landlords responded with signs that read “Black Troops Only” which pissed them off.

    A THREAD


    https://twitter.com/AfricanArchives/status/1585360676826251264

    The same happened in Newton Abbot, Devon.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    First PM Sunak poll, by YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 64%
    Con 16%
    LD 9%
    Ref 7%
    Grn 4%

    Rest of South
    Lab 46%
    Con 29%
    LD 14%
    Ref 6%
    Grn 4%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 53%
    Con 25%
    Ref 6%
    LD 6%
    PC 5%
    Grn 3%

    North
    Lab 60%
    Con 20%
    Ref 8%
    LD 6%
    Grn 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 46%
    Lab 25%
    Con 19%
    LD 5%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 1%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1646; Fieldwork: 25-26 October 2022)

    I really have to say why would anyone expect much movement in the polls a couple of days after Rishi became PM and especially before the November 17th statement

    Indeed I have maintained all along the polls next April and May will be a better test of just how he and the conservative party is performing
    The twitterati seem to think a new leader 'bounce' is just what the first poll says. They are not wise.
  • Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    edited October 27

    While US commentators discuss the “backlash” against Sunak, a reminder from history:

    The Battle of Bamber Bridge, 1943.

    Racist US military police attacked black US troops on British soil.

    US military authorities demanded the town’s pubs impose a colour bar, the local landlords responded with signs that read “Black Troops Only” which pissed them off.

    A THREAD


    https://twitter.com/AfricanArchives/status/1585360676826251264

    The same happened in Newton Abbot, Devon.
    My dad remembered hearing (during his naval training in Plymouth in WW2) about two black GIs getting unruly in a pub and being shot dead by white MPs (US kind, not RN shore patrol). Caused deep offence locally both among the natives and the RN in the port.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,449
    Rishi too busy to attend COP27.

    Does that mean Charles can go instead now?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Rowing back?

    Update: Putin: We do not need a nuclear strike on Ukraine and it is useless, either militarily or politically.

    https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1585656808278032385

    He also said he wouldn’t invade….
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Quite; just wondering why Carlotta was so sure, especially given the dress (which shifts the sex/gender odds somewhat).
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,223

    Just a Tory member of the House of Lords calling the RSPB lying turds.

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1585594129874128897?s=46&t=g0hOX_7juKJm38OTfiMcAA

    Attacking the RSPB is unwise.

    Unwise, yes. But the outrage originally appeared to be about something that hadn't actually happened.
    Surely not?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    LOL. Fair point, but I will bet you any sum you like£10 to £100,000, at evens that the answer is penis. Seems fair, as there's two possibilities. Wanna bet on fanny?


    mandy rhodes
    @holyroodmandy
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    Not, for instance, a policeman carrying out his duty? Not a taxi driver? Not a singing coach? Not a friend of your parents come to pick you up?

    This is just frighteningly mad.

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,154

    Rishi too busy to attend COP27.

    Does that mean Charles can go instead now?

    If they were serious about practicing what they preach it should all be online anyway. But that would miss out on first class plane travel and 6 star hotels wouldnt it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091

    Just a Tory member of the House of Lords calling the RSPB lying turds.

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1585594129874128897?s=46&t=g0hOX_7juKJm38OTfiMcAA

    Attacking the RSPB is unwise.

    Unwise, yes. But the outrage originally appeared to be about something that hadn't actually happened.
    It hasn't happened only because the Tories fell over their own clown shoes, to be fair. Things still have to be sorted out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453

    While US commentators discuss the “backlash” against Sunak, a reminder from history:

    The Battle of Bamber Bridge, 1943.

    Racist US military police attacked black US troops on British soil.

    US military authorities demanded the town’s pubs impose a colour bar, the local landlords responded with signs that read “Black Troops Only” which pissed them off.

    A THREAD


    https://twitter.com/AfricanArchives/status/1585360676826251264

    I've been reading Sand & Steel, which is an American history of D-Day, and it contained a surprising amount about the Battle of Bamber Bridge.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Quite; just wondering why Carlotta was so sure, especially given the dress (which shifts the sex/gender odds somewhat).
    Pretty sure that clothing-stereotyping you did there will get you called a transphobe.

    That person was not assigned female at birth.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,221
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    LOL. Fair point, but I will bet you any sum you like£10 to £100,000, at evens that the answer is penis. Seems fair, as there's two possibilities. Wanna bet on fanny?

    mandy rhodes
    @holyroodmandy
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    Not, for instance, a policeman carrying out his duty? Not a taxi driver? Not a singing coach? Not a friend of your parents come to pick you up?

    This is just frighteningly mad.

    The "anything else" means "a woman", I think. Makes no sense otherwise, agree or not.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Some amazing breaks in that YouGov:

    - Labour ahead among the elderly (65+): Lab 40%, Con 34%, Ref 10%, LD 9%

    - Only 8% (!!) of young voters (18-24) are intending to vote Conservative

    - Labour, SNP and Greens doing well among women, while the Tories and Reform are doing proportionally better among men

    - Scottish voters have a much higher propensity to actually cast their vote (10/10 likelihood): 65% compared to about 56% in England and Wales

    - Women more likely to vote than men: 59% to 54%

    - The Liberal Democrats have mind-bogglingly poor voter retention: only 43% of 2019 LD voters are intending to cast their next vote on the same party (cf Lab 90% and Con 60%).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    edited October 27

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
    Are there more videos on-line of men masturbating, or women?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Quite; just wondering why Carlotta was so sure, especially given the dress (which shifts the sex/gender odds somewhat).
    Pretty sure that clothing-stereotyping you did there will get you called a transphobe.

    That person was not assigned female at birth.
    The
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    LOL. Fair point, but I will bet you any sum you like£10 to £100,000, at evens that the answer is penis. Seems fair, as there's two possibilities. Wanna bet on fanny?


    mandy rhodes
    @holyroodmandy
    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    Not, for instance, a policeman carrying out his duty? Not a taxi driver? Not a singing coach? Not a friend of your parents come to pick you up?

    This is just frighteningly mad.

    Bet is no good as (a) not really the sort of thing I like to bet on (honestly), and (b) there is a whole spectrum of answers, admittedly some less likely than others, so we could be both wrong ...

    And as for the other thing, I think 'else' refers to 'men' tbf. The 'predatory and abusive' carries forward.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Just a Tory member of the House of Lords calling the RSPB lying turds.

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1585594129874128897?s=46&t=g0hOX_7juKJm38OTfiMcAA

    Attacking the RSPB is unwise.

    Unwise, yes. But the outrage originally appeared to be about something that hadn't actually happened.
    Something that is announced in a government budget, by a party with a majority of 80, can reasonably be assumed will be implemented.

    Except that the Tories only have a majority on paper. In reality they are a barely functioning coalition of about 12 factions.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    Some amazing breaks in that YouGov:

    - Labour ahead among the elderly (65+): Lab 40%, Con 34%, Ref 10%, LD 9%

    - Only 8% (!!) of young voters (18-24) are intending to vote Conservative

    - Labour, SNP and Greens doing well among women, while the Tories and Reform are doing proportionally better among men

    - Scottish voters have a much higher propensity to actually cast their vote (10/10 likelihood): 65% compared to about 56% in England and Wales

    - Women more likely to vote than men: 59% to 54%

    - The Liberal Democrats have mind-bogglingly poor voter retention: only 43% of 2019 LD voters are intending to cast their next vote on the same party (cf Lab 90% and Con 60%).

    Con lead amongst over 65 by 40 to 34
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Quite; just wondering why Carlotta was so sure, especially given the dress (which shifts the sex/gender odds somewhat).
    Pretty sure that clothing-stereotyping you did there will get you called a transphobe.

    That person was not assigned female at birth.
    Not stereotyping, just generally observed possibilities: as it's not a kilt, and we are not at the Edinburgh Tattoo ... I did say odds!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    “The Daily Show” giving the NYT a run for its money on “bad takes on the U.K.”

    Unpacking the backlash against new UK PM Rishi Sunak

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1585240576537944065

    Is Trevor Noah as ignorant as he projects?

    "England's first Prime Minister" in the first 5 seconds. Duh.
    It's not as if nobody in the UK ever does this. I've lost count of the times that I've heard English people refer to the UK as "England".
    It has to be admitted that members of the Scottish Government party love referring to the UK Govt as "English" :smile: .
    Can you give some examples of that?
    And excluding those cases which are (accurately) discussing their UKG responsibilities as English.
    Like comparitive performance in the devolved health services for example?
    Though posting stuff like this can lead to whiny complaints of rayzism against the English.




    I’m shocked that BBC Scotland hasn’t reported those numbers. They are usually so keen on promoting Scottish success stories.
    Especially as it's totally controlled by the SNP if you believe some folk on here.
    The BritNats lie principally to themselves. They fool no one.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771
    edited October 27
    Carnyx said:

    Just a Tory member of the House of Lords calling the RSPB lying turds.

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1585594129874128897?s=46&t=g0hOX_7juKJm38OTfiMcAA

    Attacking the RSPB is unwise.

    Unwise, yes. But the outrage originally appeared to be about something that hadn't actually happened.
    It hasn't happened only because the Tories fell over their own clown shoes, to be fair. Things still have to be sorted out.
    I'll be the first one protesting if they intend to dig up SSSIs.

    As I understood it, though, there was a list of places that could potentially apply for a change in planning law (although the nature of that change hadn't been decided), and although no actual boundaries had been drawn, some of those named places could potentially have included designated sites.

    It wasn't really worth the full on outrage.

    I await any actual proposals.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,968

    Some amazing breaks in that YouGov:

    - Labour ahead among the elderly (65+): Lab 40%, Con 34%, Ref 10%, LD 9%

    - Only 8% (!!) of young voters (18-24) are intending to vote Conservative

    - Labour, SNP and Greens doing well among women, while the Tories and Reform are doing proportionally better among men

    - Scottish voters have a much higher propensity to actually cast their vote (10/10 likelihood): 65% compared to about 56% in England and Wales

    - Women more likely to vote than men: 59% to 54%

    - The Liberal Democrats have mind-bogglingly poor voter retention: only 43% of 2019 LD voters are intending to cast their next vote on the same party (cf Lab 90% and Con 60%).

    Con lead amongst over 65 by 40 to 34
    IMO, the Conservatives will recover quite quickly to about 30% or thereabouts, but that still leaves them a long way behind Labour.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,221
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like control of the Senate will come down to the race in Georgia.

    Current 538 prediction:

    Dem 49.5%
    GOP 48.9%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

    If the polls are right... then (yes) it all comes down to Georgia*.

    But I have a sneaking suspicion the polls will not be right. I suspect they will - in most every race - be wrong by 3-4 points. And that the direction of wrong will be fairly uniform, and therefore either the Republicans will outperform by 3-4 points, or the Democrats will.

    I therefore think that the Republicans will either hold PA, and win GA, AZ and NV. (And maybe even CO too. Although NH is probably a bit of a stretch.)

    Or the Dems will hold GA, AZ, CO, NV, and win PA, and quite possibly NC and WI too. With OH being an unlikely but not impossible ask

    It is also far from impossible that McMullin wins in Utah. Deseret News has seen Lee's lead come down by a point every week, and had him at just four points ahead. And the most recent polls - from Hill Research - even showed McMullin leading by 8 points.

    * Do remember that - in Georgia - if you fail to get 50%, there's a run-off election. And that there is a Libertarian candidate who will likely get 3% of the vote. If the polls are right, then a run-off is highly likely.
    C'mon though - which way do you reckon they'll be out? Any inkling?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
    Are there more videos on-line of men masturbating, or women?
    Need to do a bit of research on that. Back later.

    Much later.
    I'm glad someone else is doing the research, as I honestly have no idea.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
    Are there more videos on-line of men masturbating, or women?
    Are there more arrests/charges of men exposing themselves and masturbating, or women?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091

    Carnyx said:

    Just a Tory member of the House of Lords calling the RSPB lying turds.

    https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1585594129874128897?s=46&t=g0hOX_7juKJm38OTfiMcAA

    Attacking the RSPB is unwise.

    Unwise, yes. But the outrage originally appeared to be about something that hadn't actually happened.
    It hasn't happened only because the Tories fell over their own clown shoes, to be fair. Things still have to be sorted out.
    I'll be the first one protesting if they intend to dig up SSSIs.

    As I understood it, though, there was a list of places that could potentially apply for a change in planning law (although the nature of that change hadn't been decided), and although no actual boundaries had been drawn, some of those named places could potentially have included designated sites.

    It wasn't really worth the full on outrage.

    I await any actual proposals.
    I think it was more the general threat to the planning system that got people worried. Once the law is changed it's too late, particularly with the majority they had and the mentality exhibited.

    And it's not just SSSIs that are the question. There are NNRs, AONB, NPs, and generally not having some numpty frack (or whatever) your local wood and them go bankrupt.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Some amazing breaks in that YouGov:

    - Labour ahead among the elderly (65+): Lab 40%, Con 34%, Ref 10%, LD 9%

    - Only 8% (!!) of young voters (18-24) are intending to vote Conservative

    - Labour, SNP and Greens doing well among women, while the Tories and Reform are doing proportionally better among men

    - Scottish voters have a much higher propensity to actually cast their vote (10/10 likelihood): 65% compared to about 56% in England and Wales

    - Women more likely to vote than men: 59% to 54%

    - The Liberal Democrats have mind-bogglingly poor voter retention: only 43% of 2019 LD voters are intending to cast their next vote on the same party (cf Lab 90% and Con 60%).

    Con lead amongst over 65 by 40 to 34
    Whoops! Sorry. Thanks for catching that. Misread the numbers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated

    Would the police even investigate if it was a vagina?
  • Does anyone want odds on whether the teenagers were boys or girls?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated

    Would the police even investigate if it was a vagina?
    Oh, I think they would. Equal opps. And recent prosecutions, e.g. of female teachers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
    Are there more videos on-line of men masturbating, or women?
    Are there more arrests/charges of men exposing themselves and masturbating, or women?
    I was not being serious.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453

    Does anyone want odds on whether the teenagers were boys or girls?

    Please: can you be a little more specific?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,918
    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,301
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like control of the Senate will come down to the race in Georgia.

    Current 538 prediction:

    Dem 49.5%
    GOP 48.9%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

    If the polls are right... then (yes) it all comes down to Georgia*.

    But I have a sneaking suspicion the polls will not be right. I suspect they will - in most every race - be wrong by 3-4 points. And that the direction of wrong will be fairly uniform, and therefore either the Republicans will outperform by 3-4 points, or the Democrats will.

    I therefore think that the Republicans will either hold PA, and win GA, AZ and NV. (And maybe even CO too. Although NH is probably a bit of a stretch.)

    Or the Dems will hold GA, AZ, CO, NV, and win PA, and quite possibly NC and WI too. With OH being an unlikely but not impossible ask

    It is also far from impossible that McMullin wins in Utah. Deseret News has seen Lee's lead come down by a point every week, and had him at just four points ahead. And the most recent polls - from Hill Research - even showed McMullin leading by 8 points.

    * Do remember that - in Georgia - if you fail to get 50%, there's a run-off election. And that there is a Libertarian candidate who will likely get 3% of the vote. If the polls are right, then a run-off is highly likely.
    It's not looking good for the Democrats if the latest polls are right. However, early turnout seems to be up, sometimes way up and that should favour them.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwsxaYGJgyM
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated

    Would the police even investigate if it was a vagina?
    This guy would: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/met-police-officer-rape-sexual-assault-b2149966.html
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
    Are there more videos on-line of men masturbating, or women?
    Are there more arrests/charges of men exposing themselves and masturbating, or women?
    I was not being serious.
    Glad to have that confirmed!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977

    Does anyone want odds on whether the teenagers were boys or girls?

    According to the local news they were two girls aged 15 and 16.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Sean_F said:

    Some amazing breaks in that YouGov:

    - Labour ahead among the elderly (65+): Lab 40%, Con 34%, Ref 10%, LD 9%

    - Only 8% (!!) of young voters (18-24) are intending to vote Conservative

    - Labour, SNP and Greens doing well among women, while the Tories and Reform are doing proportionally better among men

    - Scottish voters have a much higher propensity to actually cast their vote (10/10 likelihood): 65% compared to about 56% in England and Wales

    - Women more likely to vote than men: 59% to 54%

    - The Liberal Democrats have mind-bogglingly poor voter retention: only 43% of 2019 LD voters are intending to cast their next vote on the same party (cf Lab 90% and Con 60%).

    Con lead amongst over 65 by 40 to 34
    IMO, the Conservatives will recover quite quickly to about 30% or thereabouts, but that still leaves them a long way behind Labour.
    If the Tories are only about 30% in England and low teens in Scotland by next May then the pressure on Sunak will be immense. The cracks will begin to show.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,223

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated

    Would the police even investigate if it was a vagina?
    Rather more closely, in at least one sense.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,221
    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
  • kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Bet he's never got a first on PB.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Does anyone want odds on whether the teenagers were boys or girls?

    Please: can you be a little more specific?
    "they" exposed their genitals to teenagers, according to the Berkshire police tweet

    If I'm right that it was penis exposure, it'd take a brave "woman" to flash "her" cock and balls at teenage boys
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 637

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
    Not really directly related, but ... during lockdown a dominatrix acquaintance of mine got bored and took to visiting the local park wearing a long leather coat an not much more. If she spotted someone she liked the look of, would give them a little flash of leg or boob. If they seemed interested she'd sit with them while .. urm.... 'giving herself a special tickle'.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,221
    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Now, now. Action Person.
    kjh is ALL man.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,918
    edited October 27
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Nope. Food plays a significant part. I am a foodie. I also scare easily so I do need to pluck up courage for some of this stuff. Many years ago I skied the Tortin and I stood at the top of it for ages before launching off.

    The adrenalin is still pumping today and it did for ages after I skied that run. But it has to be done.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,021
    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Maybe vote CON? 👍
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    No real bounce from Redfield yet

    Labour leads by 32%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October):
    Labour 55% (+1)
    Conservative 23% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Changes +/- 23 October
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 27
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63403823

    “Many skip work over hygiene poverty shame, charity says”

    The way this is written - and the comments of the people/charities featured - are just absurd. Soap, basic toothpaste, unbranded shampoo and basic sanitary products are extremely cheap.

    These people need their heads screwing on. They’re taking the piss out of the good Samaritans and bbc journos. Stories like this keep the daily mail in business.

    “Struggling to make ends meet” stories are important, when reflecting genuine reality, but this reframing as “X poverty” is getting ever more absurd.

    Skipping work, because you’re too poor is the most basic logic fail of all. Journos need to call people out on it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.

    Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.

    There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.

    OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).

    Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
    Nope. Food plays a significant part. I am a foodie.
    Arbroath smokie; baby gannet; North Ronaldsay sheep; samphire ...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,154
    ohnotnow said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?



    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1585619374450278401

    "There is no evidence that predatory and abusive men have ever had to pretend to be anything else to carry out abusive and predatory behaviour."

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1585621551545782274

    FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
    What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
    No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
    Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
    Not really directly related, but ... during lockdown a dominatrix acquaintance of mine got bored and took to visiting the local park wearing a long leather coat an not much more. If she spotted someone she liked the look of, would give them a little flash of leg or boob. If they seemed interested she'd sit with them while .. urm.... 'giving herself a special tickle'.


    i would think dominatrix's would rather like lockdowns not get bored with them
This discussion has been closed.