I reckon it's best to wait until the New Year to start taking anything concrete from the polls. There will definitely be a Truss lag and possibly a Sunak honeymoon. It will need a few months to settle down.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
No, take a look at the leader ratings. Rishi is beginning to pull back the huge deficit that Liz Truss created. That takes time to fees through into the VI.
I was surprised tonight that he has overtaken Starmer as best PM
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
I reckon it's best to wait until the New Year to start taking anything concrete from the polls. There will definitely be a Truss lag and possibly a Sunak honeymoon. It will need a few months to settle down.
Agreed
I bet you would not have said that if the polls had been more agreeable.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Drive a steam train? Maybe fly a glider (the heights thing doesn't really kick in).
Done gliders. Even landed in a field (well the instructor did) when the winch launch went horribly wrong. In my ignorance I thought it was going rather smoothly as it was less vicious than normal. The instructor behind had rather different emotions going through him as he took over.
Height is only an issue if I'm not enclosed, hence rolls and barrel rolls in a Pitts Special was ok (other than feeling sick)
I've just seen the Redfield & Wilton poll. So that's two polls with fieldwork taken since Rishi became PM showing Labour with 28% and now 32% leads.
I was expecting at least some sort of honeymoon bounce. This shows nothing as yet.
The back benches could start to become discontented if this continues, which I think it may.
YouGov was a nine point movement. Redfiekds red wall poll yesterday was a 12 point movement. This Redfield is on its own thus far showing no movement outside MoE (though Tories are up 4 this week with them). Lets see what the rest do.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
Now, now. Action Person.
kjh is ALL man.
Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
I too have a mental image of you all. Mostly they are fairly bland but I must say I do have the hots for JackW.
I do hope I never meet him.
Never meet your heroes. That's why I haven't been to a PB gathering. I know people wouldn't want to meet me.
You could turn up and pretend to be another poster.
I pretended to be Nigel 4 England once.
Would've got away with it if I hadn't forgotten to take my don't blame me I voted Jezza badge off!!
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
I have already commented on this that it is too early to expect a substantial bounce and certainly the polls post the 17th November Autumn statement will be interesting
However, I understand in tonight's poll Rishi has overtaken Starmer as best PM 39%/38%
If so he should go to the country immediately, before there's a chance for reality to take hold again.
Good try, but he will take the full 2 years and I would caution Labour from being over confident
2 years is a long time in politics
What I mean is that the problems facing any incoming prime minister are so challenging that in the longer term it's going to require something a lot more substantial than media coverage of Sunak grinning a lot, surrounded by applauding people he's just given jobs to, for the Tories to stand any chance of winning an election.
I reckon it's best to wait until the New Year to start taking anything concrete from the polls. There will definitely be a Truss lag and possibly a Sunak honeymoon. It will need a few months to settle down.
Agreed
I bet you would not have said that if the polls had been more agreeable.
I have repeatedly said that and if you check my posts I have consistently said it will be next Spring before the polls are more reflective of the political climate
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
I have already commented on this that it is too early to expect a substantial bounce and certainly the polls post the 17th November Autumn statement will be interesting
However, I understand in tonight's poll Rishi has overtaken Starmer as best PM 39%/38%
If so he should go to the country immediately, before there's a chance for reality to take hold again.
Good try, but he will take the full 2 years and I would caution Labour from being over confident
2 years is a long time in politics
What I mean is that the problems facing any incoming prime minister are so challenging that in the longer term it's going to require something a lot more substantial than media coverage of Sunak grinning a lot, surrounded by applauding people he's just given jobs to, for the Tories to stand any chance of winning an election.
Sunak deliberately didn't grin did he?
Thought he was trying to look all serious in light of the state of everything.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
Now, now. Action Person.
kjh is ALL man.
Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
That is very kind of you, although sadly you have not met me to spoil that image. I'm going to spoilt that now, as apparently I look a bit like Boris Johnson. Years ago that mistake would be difficult as I had black hair, but its all gone white now except for the eyebrows.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
Now, now. Action Person.
kjh is ALL man.
Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
Must stand out amongst the sea of those with elbow patches on jackets, electrical tape on glasses and cardigans.
Nowt wrong with cardigans!
The last Crimean war was so productive - cardigans, balaclavas, raglan sleeves - I am hoping for some really innovative cold weather cosies to emerge from this coming winter. Like the Apollo program being great because we got cordless screwdrivers.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
You are ruling out the possibility - however wild it might be - that Sunak nails it, massively limits the economic damage, keeps various voters happy with their pet wants, and that people might warm to him in his tiggerish enthusiasm. It might just be a slow burn which would possibly have more depth to it - something about “the star that burns the brightest burns the shortest” (no pun intended) but in reverse.
It’s just far too early to tell and people will be very wary about being enthused by the Tories right now.
I've just seen the Redfield & Wilton poll. So that's two polls with fieldwork taken since Rishi became PM showing Labour with 28% and now 32% leads.
I was expecting at least some sort of honeymoon bounce. This shows nothing as yet.
The back benches could start to become discontented if this continues, which I think it may.
The 28% lead was Yougov, with Lab -5 and Con +4. how is that not "at least some sort of honeymoon bounce"? I mean, I find it as tragicomic as the next man that a 9 point bounce still leaves them 23-51 but you must not misrepresent polls here.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
If you’re right, Lab Maj at 2.36 is astonishingly good value.
More than double your money in 24 months? Even horrendous inflation can’t take the shine off that.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
Now, now. Action Person.
kjh is ALL man.
Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
Must stand out amongst the sea of those with elbow patches on jackets, electrical tape on glasses and cardigans.
Nowt wrong with cardigans!
The last Crimean war was so productive - cardigans, balaclavas, raglan sleeves - I am hoping for some really innovative cold weather cosies to emerge from this coming winter. Like the Apollo program being great because we got cordless screwdrivers.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Drive a steam train? Maybe fly a glider (the heights thing doesn't really kick in).
Done gliders. Even landed in a field (well the instructor did) when the winch launch went horribly wrong. In my ignorance I thought it was going rather smoothly as it was less vicious than normal. The instructor behind had rather different emotions going through him as he took over.
Height is only an issue if I'm not enclosed, hence rolls and barrel rolls in a Pitts Special was ok (other than feeling sick)
Steam train is a great idea - thank you.
Walk a national trail. There's a variety, from the classic-but-hard Pennine Way (although that has had many of its teeth removed over the years) to the wonderful but easy Thames Path.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
Nope. Food plays a significant part. I am a foodie.
Arbroath smokie; baby gannet; North Ronaldsay sheep; samphire ...
On that front I do have some medlars (and know where to get more) and have never cooked with them before. Suggestions? Have seen lots of recipes, but don't know what to go for. I don't want to make jam.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Drive a steam train? Maybe fly a glider (the heights thing doesn't really kick in).
Done gliders. Even landed in a field (well the instructor did) when the winch launch went horribly wrong. In my ignorance I thought it was going rather smoothly as it was less vicious than normal. The instructor behind had rather different emotions going through him as he took over.
Height is only an issue if I'm not enclosed, hence rolls and barrel rolls in a Pitts Special was ok (other than feeling sick)
Steam train is a great idea - thank you.
Walk a national trail. There's a variety, from the classic-but-hard Pennine Way (although that has had many of its teeth removed over the years) to the wonderful but easy Thames Path.
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
The polls for Rishi are a bit like my MPG in the car. I want to achieve over 40 for a decent length journey.
He needs to get up to near parity in the polls by 2024 - he doesn’t need to lead, the typical understatement of Tories ahead of elections will sort that out - but he needs to be in touching distance. He also needs to lead Starmer by a few % on best leader.
To end 2024 at near parity he needs a big surge now, like the MPG which goes up to 50+ on a long downhill stretch knowing I have a few hills and red traffic lights to take the average down before the destination.
Feels like he’s been freewheeling down the hill and the fuel economy is ticking up but it may not hit 35 let alone the 45mpg he needs to allow for the revving to come.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
Does anyone in the UK outside of a section of Northern Ireland support Donaldson and the DUP?
I think the Tories would dearly love to get rid of them completely, but supporting Irish reunification formally is too honest for them. They’re doing it in their standard underhand way.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Drive a steam train? Maybe fly a glider (the heights thing doesn't really kick in).
Done gliders. Even landed in a field (well the instructor did) when the winch launch went horribly wrong. In my ignorance I thought it was going rather smoothly as it was less vicious than normal. The instructor behind had rather different emotions going through him as he took over.
Height is only an issue if I'm not enclosed, hence rolls and barrel rolls in a Pitts Special was ok (other than feeling sick)
Steam train is a great idea - thank you.
Walk a national trail. There's a variety, from the classic-but-hard Pennine Way (although that has had many of its teeth removed over the years) to the wonderful but easy Thames Path.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
You are ruling out the possibility [...] It’s just far too early to tell
I am and it isn't.
It's over.
The only question is the scale of the Conservative losses.
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Drive a steam train? Maybe fly a glider (the heights thing doesn't really kick in).
Done gliders. Even landed in a field (well the instructor did) when the winch launch went horribly wrong. In my ignorance I thought it was going rather smoothly as it was less vicious than normal. The instructor behind had rather different emotions going through him as he took over.
Height is only an issue if I'm not enclosed, hence rolls and barrel rolls in a Pitts Special was ok (other than feeling sick)
Steam train is a great idea - thank you.
Walk a national trail. There's a variety, from the classic-but-hard Pennine Way (although that has had many of its teeth removed over the years) to the wonderful but easy Thames Path.
GR20 for me next May.
Had to Google that. Sounds great.
TBF it's a bit of a brag until I have actually done it, very very tough by all accounts.
Westminster Voting Intention (25-26 October): Labour 55% (+1) Conservative 23% (+2) Liberal Democrat 9% (-2) Green 5% (+1) Reform UK 4% (–) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Other 1% (-1) Changes +/- 23 October
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-emai…
Team Sunak must be very concerned.
I guess no one gets much of a honeymoon anymore.
Not if you're a Conservative right now.
They trashed the country and trashed their reputation. That's the perception.
They will come back from this but it won't be until 2035 at the earliest.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Drive a steam train? Maybe fly a glider (the heights thing doesn't really kick in).
Done gliders. Even landed in a field (well the instructor did) when the winch launch went horribly wrong. In my ignorance I thought it was going rather smoothly as it was less vicious than normal. The instructor behind had rather different emotions going through him as he took over.
Height is only an issue if I'm not enclosed, hence rolls and barrel rolls in a Pitts Special was ok (other than feeling sick)
Steam train is a great idea - thank you.
Walk a national trail. There's a variety, from the classic-but-hard Pennine Way (although that has had many of its teeth removed over the years) to the wonderful but easy Thames Path.
GR20 for me next May.
Had to Google that. Sounds great.
Cotswold Way is great for softees. Feel free to drop in here when you pass through Winchcombe.
First PM Sunak poll, by YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:
London Lab 64% Con 16% LD 9% Ref 7% Grn 4%
... snip ...
Scotland SNP 46% Lab 25% Con 19% LD 5% Grn 3% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1646; Fieldwork: 25-26 October 2022)
I never noticed you post details of the previous poll by YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, which had: Scotland SNP 41% Lab 35% Con 9% LD 8% Grn 4% Ref 2%
Was it because the SNP lead had shrunk to 6% and you're posting only those YouGov polls that you like?
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
You are ruling out the possibility [...] It’s just far too early to tell
I am and it isn't.
It's over.
The only question is the scale of the Conservative losses.
The trick was to realise and say that when Lab Maj was at 6. But you have got there.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
Now, now. Action Person.
kjh is ALL man.
Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
I too have a mental image of you all. Mostly they are fairly bland but I must say I do have the hots for JackW.
I do hope I never meet him.
Never meet your heroes. That's why I haven't been to a PB gathering. I know people wouldn't want to meet me.
You could turn up and pretend to be another poster.
I pretended to be Nigel 4 England once.
Would've got away with it if I hadn't forgotten to take my don't blame me I voted Jezza badge off!!
@HYUFD wouldn’t have been happy about you impersonating him.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
I remember chatting to Michael Heseltine in early 1997 and he knew. People on the inside just did.
Same now.
I don't mind if some of you on the right wish to straw clutch and pin your hopes on any little flutter of wind you think you can find but I'm afraid it is sheer delusion. The latest I see is that we should wait for, erm, that statement on austerity.
The real question, and the only one, is just how many seats they are going to lose. Election night will be carnage and a few brave tory souls will tour the tv studios and they will talk back to autumn 2022 as the moment when the rout began. They will be right to.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Drive a steam train? Maybe fly a glider (the heights thing doesn't really kick in).
Done gliders. Even landed in a field (well the instructor did) when the winch launch went horribly wrong. In my ignorance I thought it was going rather smoothly as it was less vicious than normal. The instructor behind had rather different emotions going through him as he took over.
Height is only an issue if I'm not enclosed, hence rolls and barrel rolls in a Pitts Special was ok (other than feeling sick)
Steam train is a great idea - thank you.
Walk a national trail. There's a variety, from the classic-but-hard Pennine Way (although that has had many of its teeth removed over the years) to the wonderful but easy Thames Path.
I'm not a fan of walking. I find it boring (sorry). I also have flat feet so it hurts after a few miles. I do like cycling and have cycled several Greenways in France. I tend to do 400 - 600 km trips staying in B&Bs. Planning it is fun. It also seems to have the advantage of taking the wildlife by surprise more often than when you walk, so I think you see more. I tend to look for flat routes as my not so svelte body struggles on hills. My wife likes walking. We aren't compatible in so many ways.
The police don’t know who this male accused of exposing his penis to two teenagers is, so they have no idea of his preferred pronouns. Yet they err on side of caution to avoid offending him over clear language to assist in identifying a male sex offender. See the problem?
FPT: how do you know what genitalia the person had? Where does the willy come (no pun intended) into the tweet?
What odds do you want that it was a snatch flash and rub?
No idea, but this was in a railway station by the sound of it, so not a sex segregated space, and merits police investigation whatever the genitalia surely?
Sure, but I’ll give anyone who wants it 100/1 on it being a vagina that was exposed and masturbated
Are there more videos on-line of men masturbating, or women?
I think the point here is that if it was a woman, dressed as a woman, the Tweet would have referred to the fact. By process of elimination, that only leaves it being a man dressed as a woman.
Does anyone in the UK outside of a section of Northern Ireland support Donaldson and the DUP?
No. They are impossible to support outside their internal echo chamber for the simple reason that while we are repeatedly told what they don't want we have yet to hear from the DUP a worked out, non unicorn description of what they actually want and how anyone would go about achieving it.
The extent to which other UK politicians and the media let them get away with this must be deliberate because it is so obvious, but I am unclear why.
I remember chatting to Michael Heseltine in early 1997 and he knew. People on the inside just did.
Same now.
I don't mind if some of you on the right wish to straw clutch and pin your hopes on any little flutter of wind you think you can find but I'm afraid it is sheer delusion. The latest I see is that we should wait for, erm, that statement on austerity.
The real question, and the only one, is just how many seats they are going to lose. Election night will be carnage and a few brave tory souls will tour the tv studios and they will talk back to autumn 2022 as the moment when the rout began. They will be right to.
Yeah none of us had a clue in early 1997, it needed insider info from Michael Heseltine.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
Another John Major echo.
The Conservatives did slowly, painfully haul themselves back from their nadir in summer 1995. Their polling average then was about 24%, and they got back to 31% in 1997. And that was with the economy (as the posters said) "Booming".
Beyond a certain point, a lot of voters stop listening. Not all of them; 31 is bigger than 24. But as with people, political parties eventually annoy others so much that the apologies aren't heard, and anything that goes well is uncreditied.
I thought that ditching Johnson would be enough to get the Conservatives back on the same pitch as the other lot. Turns out that, fairly or not, the public anger with the Conservatives goes wider than that.
Much as it dismays me, I am forced to agree with @Heathener
The people have decided. They want the Tories gone. Sunak should reduce the scale of the disaster and maybe even reduce PM starmer to leading a NOM Govt, but even that is wildly optimistic
There is one caveat. A black swan. And right now black swans are quite plentiful. Unfortunately
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
You are ruling out the possibility [...] It’s just far too early to tell
I am and it isn't.
It's over.
The only question is the scale of the Conservative losses.
The trick was to realise and say that when Lab Maj was at 6. But you have got there.
In fairness, Ish, one would have needed to predict the Trussterfuckup, and few could have foreseen its full scale.
I remember chatting to Michael Heseltine in early 1997 and he knew. People on the inside just did.
Same now.
I don't mind if some of you on the right wish to straw clutch and pin your hopes on any little flutter of wind you think you can find but I'm afraid it is sheer delusion. The latest I see is that we should wait for, erm, that statement on austerity.
The real question, and the only one, is just how many seats they are going to lose. Election night will be carnage and a few brave tory souls will tour the tv studios and they will talk back to autumn 2022 as the moment when the rout began. They will be right to.
I remember chatting to Michael Heseltine in early 1997 and he knew. People on the inside just did.
Same now.
I don't mind if some of you on the right wish to straw clutch and pin your hopes on any little flutter of wind you think you can find but I'm afraid it is sheer delusion. The latest I see is that we should wait for, erm, that statement on austerity.
The real question, and the only one, is just how many seats they are going to lose. Election night will be carnage and a few brave tory souls will tour the tv studios and they will talk back to autumn 2022 as the moment when the rout began. They will be right to.
You constantly refer to conservatives on the right, but most of us who back Rishi are far from being on the right and it seems it is your way of trying to discredit decent and honest conservatives who rejected Johnson and Truss but who now see in Rishi a professional grown up politician who in the fulness of time will confound your views
Pleased to speak with @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz this afternoon.
I'm looking forward to working closely with him, as we did as finance ministers, to ensure we maintain pressure on Putin, support Ukraine and safeguard our energy security for the future.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
Much as it dismays me, I am forced to agree with @Heathener
The people have decided. They want the Tories gone. Sunak should reduce the scale of the disaster and maybe even reduce PM starmer to leading a NOM Govt, but even that is wildly optimistic
There is one caveat. A black swan. And right now black swans are quite plentiful. Unfortunately
I dont disagree, but there is everything to play for in terms of being placed to come back in one parliament vs 15 years in the wilderness
Pleased to speak with @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz this afternoon.
I'm looking forward to working closely with him, as we did as finance ministers, to ensure we maintain pressure on Putin, support Ukraine and safeguard our energy security for the future.
Much as it dismays me, I am forced to agree with @Heathener
The people have decided. They want the Tories gone. Sunak should reduce the scale of the disaster and maybe even reduce PM starmer to leading a NOM Govt, but even that is wildly optimistic
There is one caveat. A black swan. And right now black swans are quite plentiful. Unfortunately
It grieves me to do so, my flintknapping friend, but I have to agree.
We had a nice political chat with some US friends in the pub recently and even they pointed out that us Brits like to rotate our bastards from time to time, and it just has that kind of feel about it. The Tories have been around too long, and that will do for them if nothing else does.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
And if he could afford to ditch people like Braverman I'm sure he would be better placed, but he can't. A lot of people had been assuming he couldn't even be elected by his own party. Of course keeping his own party happy is going to be a huge part of the challenges facing him over the next two years, and surely it must be obvious after the events of the last couple of months that keeping the lunatic wing of the Tory party happy is an aim pretty much diametrically opposed to pleasing the electorate.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
You are ruling out the possibility [...] It’s just far too early to tell
I am and it isn't.
It's over.
The only question is the scale of the Conservative losses.
The trick was to realise and say that when Lab Maj was at 6. But you have got there.
In fairness, Ish, one would have needed to predict the Trussterfuckup, and few could have foreseen its full scale.
I was expecting a (narrow) lab maj even under Johnson on the basis he was going to crash and burn, his replacement wouldn't be much better, we have had 12 years of tories, and crucially because the strongest argument against was always the very weak one that No one has overturned that big a majority since nineteen something. Which without context never looks much of an argument to me.
While US commentators discuss the “backlash” against Sunak, a reminder from history:
The Battle of Bamber Bridge, 1943.
Racist US military police attacked black US troops on British soil.
US military authorities demanded the town’s pubs impose a colour bar, the local landlords responded with signs that read “Black Troops Only” which pissed them off.
There is sn Ominisis, People Polling, Techne and possibly deltapoll due by tomorrow so we should have plenty of 'bounce' evidence or evidence of lack soon
You really need to give is a week or so.
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
Giving in to the ERG on Day One has probably sunk his chances. Which were extremely slim anyway.
It seems somewhat amusing that Betfair has listed Kwasi Kwarteng 2nd in their list of names for next Con leader and 3rd in their list for next PM.
It's surely hard to think of anyone (amongst well known names) less likely to win. I mean I know things can change in politics but after the last few weeks the idea of Kwasi as next leader feels beyond inconceivable.
While US commentators discuss the “backlash” against Sunak, a reminder from history:
The Battle of Bamber Bridge, 1943.
Racist US military police attacked black US troops on British soil.
US military authorities demanded the town’s pubs impose a colour bar, the local landlords responded with signs that read “Black Troops Only” which pissed them off.
Pleased to speak with @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz this afternoon.
I'm looking forward to working closely with him, as we did as finance ministers, to ensure we maintain pressure on Putin, support Ukraine and safeguard our energy security for the future.
What on earth has Britain's energy security got to do with Germany, or vice versa?
'Security' can mean several things, including security of supply. We may have a shortage of gas in the near future due to Putin's shittiness, and many countries are going after relatively few non-pipeline gas supplies (e.g. ships, LNG terminals).
As another example: Germany going back to using Russian gas would be a disaster for Europe, and also our 'security'.
Drive done. That's another off the bucket list. It didn't feel complete after the first attempt. Got my instructor score in the Porsche up from 49% to 75% and I bought a lot of extra laps in the Sports 2000.
Lots of incidents because it was damp. Someone put their car in the armco. Lots of yellow flags during the session (none last time) and someone spun in front of me going onto the grass and then back onto the track and stopping sideways on in front of me. Seemed to take me ages to react as it was so unexpected.
There are strict instructions where not to overtake (we weren't racing) and one is obviously the Chicane. So it came as a surprise to be overtaken by a saloon car as I was going through the Chicane which then slide nicely around the end of chicane. I was taken aback and then saw the name on the rear window. It was Tiff Needell taking people out on a 'scare the willies out of you' lap. I noticed in the restaurant that he took 5 sugars with his tea/coffee. Obviously that is what you need to do.
OK everyone what do I now add to the bucket list. Done the Pitts Special, done the racing car, I'm too old now for the catamarans and black runs. I need another challenge and I don't want to sky dive (heights, yuck).
Is your bucket list all action man stuff?
Now, now. Action Person.
kjh is ALL man.
Complete with facial scar, clutching hands, plastic push-on footwear, and a suspiciously androgynous nether region?
Ooo no. I have a mental image of all posters, as I said this morning, and kjh is handsome and distinguished.
Must stand out amongst the sea of those with elbow patches on jackets, electrical tape on glasses and cardigans.
Nowt wrong with cardigans!
The last Crimean war was so productive - cardigans, balaclavas, raglan sleeves - I am hoping for some really innovative cold weather cosies to emerge from this coming winter. Like the Apollo program being great because we got cordless screwdrivers.
While US commentators discuss the “backlash” against Sunak, a reminder from history:
The Battle of Bamber Bridge, 1943.
Racist US military police attacked black US troops on British soil.
US military authorities demanded the town’s pubs impose a colour bar, the local landlords responded with signs that read “Black Troops Only” which pissed them off.
Predicament for Nicola Sturgeon. If she withdraws whip from 9 who voted against/abstained on GRR, she loses her majority and is in hock to Greens. If she doesn't act, she loses authority in group. Whatever, she is no longer omnipotent. Interesting.
Pleased to speak with @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz this afternoon.
I'm looking forward to working closely with him, as we did as finance ministers, to ensure we maintain pressure on Putin, support Ukraine and safeguard our energy security for the future.
One of the things that I think hurt Labour after 2010 was that a lot of their MPs who had been seen as big figures for the future decided that years of opposition wasn't for them and they'd rather find something more fun to do.
It's an understandable reaction, but it's the sort of thing which can make it harder for a new opposition, and isn't great for politics overall.
Though deciding which MPs are worth having stick around, and which are best cleared out, is bound to be a subject of some contention.
I think that's one of the risks for the Tories now. If the capable sensible people decide to find more interesting things to do, and only the committed ideologically inflexible types hang around, it will make it much harder for them to become a good opposition.
So one of the tasks Sunak has to achieve, if we assume that election victory is beyond him, is to keep the spirits up and encourage the best Tory MPs to want to stick around. A bit like trying hard to put together some tail-end partnerships on the fifth morning of a Test Match, so that the team's spirits aren't too crushed when it comes to the next match in the series.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Polls are now starting to emerge where at least some of the fieldwork is post Sunak's appointment at PM.
There appears to be little evidence of a honeymoon bounce, at least so far, which has surprised me.
Perhaps @MoonRabbit called this one right – credit to her if so, swimming against the tide of opinion.
it is too early to expect a substantial bounce
Why? I've never heard of such a thing before.
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
He leads Starmer tonight and frankly, and with respect, your posts are entirely your own hopes and expectations projected as certaintity which in politics is never a good place to be
No. Some of my most successful bets have been entirely against my own hopes. For instance I won a load on Brexit and also on David Cameron in 2015.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
With respect many would say your last sentence applies to yourself to be fair
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Well I maybe wouldn't go as far as Heathener, but I certainly think 2.38 is great value on a Labour Majority.
Unfortunately I do not understand betting odds would you believe but NOM seems to be about the same as a Labour majority and at present NOM seems a likely outcome, but then the question that will become clearer in time is Rishi the new Blair and if so all bets are off
It's easy arithmetic and worth learning. Turn the odds into percentages - so 100/2.38 = 42%. So the odds are saying both Lab Maj and NOM have about the same probability of 42%.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I don't. I'm retrired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Thank you for that and I would not disagree with your comments which seem completely logical
Pleased to speak with @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz this afternoon.
I'm looking forward to working closely with him, as we did as finance ministers, to ensure we maintain pressure on Putin, support Ukraine and safeguard our energy security for the future.
What on earth has Britain's energy security got to do with Germany, or vice versa?
Perhaps this is code for selling more expensive North Sea gas to Germany now that cheap Russian gas isn't an option?
Perhaps; if so I don't think it's a great idea. We need to keep energy cheap for domestic use. I never realised before the sheer disparity in the price of energy between us and America. It is quite literally the power behind their economy.
Predicament for Nicola Sturgeon. If she withdraws whip from 9 who voted against/abstained on GRR, she loses her majority and is in hock to Greens. If she doesn't act, she loses authority in group. Whatever, she is no longer omnipotent. Interesting.
Pleased to speak with @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz this afternoon.
I'm looking forward to working closely with him, as we did as finance ministers, to ensure we maintain pressure on Putin, support Ukraine and safeguard our energy security for the future.
What on earth has Britain's energy security got to do with Germany, or vice versa?
I would have thought there's a reasonable amount we can do together.
Let me give you an example. If Germany has ordered an LNG cargo, and their storage is full, it is better than cargo gets diverted to the UK, and then the ship can head off back to Qatar or Texas, than it currently sits off the coast waiting to be delivered. (Which is happening, btw, there are about half a dozen LNG ships sitting outside European harbours unable to deliver due to lack of storage.)
Comments
But let’s enjoy them sweat.
Maybe wait until the Autumn statement on the 17th November and the reaction to a very important event for most everyone
I'm afraid they are in real trouble. Rishi is not relatable. He was part of the whole lockdown sleaze. For some he is the one who stabbed their beloved Boris. The economic situation is dire. The tories trashed their reputation for economic competence. We're about to enter austerity. He may not even guarantee the pension triple lock. And he has made some shockingly bad appointments to the cabinet, showing his weakness.
The tories are going to get trounced next time. There is nothing they can do to avert it.
Height is only an issue if I'm not enclosed, hence rolls and barrel rolls in a Pitts Special was ok (other than feeling sick)
Steam train is a great idea - thank you.
This Redfield is on its own thus far showing no movement outside MoE (though Tories are up 4 this week with them). Lets see what the rest do.
Would've got away with it if I hadn't forgotten to take my don't blame me I voted Jezza badge off!!
Thought he was trying to look all serious in light of the state of everything.
Sorry about bursting the bubble.
https://www.etsy.com/uk/listing/1136284065/rubber-sole-felted-woolen-full-boots-100?external=1&ref=market_collection_recs-1-listing-0&external_collection=&page_type=cl_market_page
You are ruling out the possibility - however wild it might be - that Sunak nails it, massively limits the economic damage, keeps various voters happy with their pet wants, and that people might warm to him in his tiggerish enthusiasm. It might just be a slow burn which would possibly have more depth to it - something about “the star that burns the brightest burns the shortest” (no pun intended) but in reverse.
It’s just far too early to tell and people will be very wary about being enthused by the Tories right now.
More than double your money in 24 months? Even horrendous inflation can’t take the shine off that.
But I’m not a buyer.
Rishi has had a lot of favourable Press, and is if nothing else 'better than what you had before'.
Fixed that for you 😄
In all seriousness, it is not the London numbers that ought to terrify the Tories, it is these ones:
Rest of South
Lab 46%
Con 29%
LD 14%
Ref 6%
Grn 4%
Midlands and Wales
Lab 53%
Con 25%
Ref 6%
LD 6%
PC 5%
Grn 3%
North
Lab 60%
Con 20%
Ref 8%
LD 6%
Grn 4%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1646; Fieldwork: 25-26 October 2022)
I'll hazard a guess that within a fortnight the lead will be down to about 25 points. After that, it depends how things go.
The November statement will be big, and I expect we'll have had the next Suella scandal by then.
In which case, a 1 point lead isn't all that.
He needs to get up to near parity in the polls by 2024 - he doesn’t need to lead, the typical understatement of Tories ahead of elections will sort that out - but he needs to be in touching distance. He also needs to lead Starmer by a few % on best leader.
To end 2024 at near parity he needs a big surge now, like the MPG which goes up to 50+ on a long downhill stretch knowing I have a few hills and red traffic lights to take the average down before the destination.
Feels like he’s been freewheeling down the hill and the fuel economy is ticking up but it may not hit 35 let alone the 45mpg he needs to allow for the revving to come.
I see this objectively. And you simply don't come back from this. You say he leads Starmer tonight but that's after wall-to-wall coverage for several days and positive pages.
When the economy bites more and people lose the first flush, those 32% Labour leads will grow even further.
This is 1997 all over again only worse for the tories because then the economy was in great shape. This time it is awful.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded and straw-clutching.
It's over.
The only question is the scale of the Conservative losses.
is not great.
I do think the average voter is of a mind to give the other lot a go next time.
They trashed the country and trashed their reputation. That's the perception.
They will come back from this but it won't be until 2035 at the earliest.
You may well be right but equally you could be wrong
Anyway we know you will continue on this path so maybe we should agree to disagree
Scotland
SNP 41%
Lab 35%
Con 9%
LD 8%
Grn 4%
Ref 2%
Was it because the SNP lead had shrunk to 6% and you're posting only those YouGov polls that you like?
ETA after taking a nap if you have time.
Same now.
I don't mind if some of you on the right wish to straw clutch and pin your hopes on any little flutter of wind you think you can find but I'm afraid it is sheer delusion. The latest I see is that we should wait for, erm, that statement on austerity.
The real question, and the only one, is just how many seats they are going to lose. Election night will be carnage and a few brave tory souls will tour the tv studios and they will talk back to autumn 2022 as the moment when the rout began. They will be right to.
That also works when you are dieting.
The extent to which other UK politicians and the media let them get away with this must be deliberate because it is so obvious, but I am unclear why.
https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/keir-starmer-rishi-sunak-labour-party-b2211959.html
John Rentoul, not a natural Tory fanboi.
The Conservatives did slowly, painfully haul themselves back from their nadir in summer 1995. Their polling average then was about 24%, and they got back to 31% in 1997. And that was with the economy (as the posters said) "Booming".
Beyond a certain point, a lot of voters stop listening. Not all of them; 31 is bigger than 24. But as with people, political parties eventually annoy others so much that the apologies aren't heard, and anything that goes well is uncreditied.
I thought that ditching Johnson would be enough to get the Conservatives back on the same pitch as the other lot. Turns out that, fairly or not, the public anger with the Conservatives goes wider than that.
The people have decided. They want the Tories gone. Sunak should reduce the scale of the disaster and maybe even reduce PM starmer to leading a NOM Govt, but even that is wildly optimistic
There is one caveat. A black swan. And right now black swans are quite plentiful. Unfortunately
Pleased to speak with @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz this afternoon.
I'm looking forward to working closely with him, as we did as finance ministers, to ensure we maintain pressure on Putin, support Ukraine and safeguard our energy security for the future.
https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1585677102124339203
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1585665169195237377
But Sunak's popularity won't last, he has shown himself to be continuously hopeless at politics, I've been saying this since early 2020.
Is he better than Truss, yes of course. And I am glad he is there - but he is not good at politics whatsoever.
We had a nice political chat with some US friends in the pub recently and even they pointed out that us Brits like to rotate our bastards from time to time, and it just has that kind of feel about it. The Tories have been around too long, and that will do for them if nothing else does.
Black swans notwithstanding of course.
Net favourability
Starmer: +2
Labour: +2
Sunak: -4
Cons: -36
So there is clearly a disconnect between brand Sunak and brand Tory... at the moment...
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1585670271565824001
Sunak has essentially got to do what Corbyn tried and failed to do prior to GE2019. It's an outside chance.
Have a good evening
Apparently we should have impromptu armies of Hindus and racists fighting pitch battles in the streets or something.
Unless of course trying out for role of Eliza Doolittle in VERY surrealist/psychedelic/intergalactic production of "My Fair Lady"!
It's surely hard to think of anyone (amongst well known names) less likely to win. I mean I know things can change in politics but after the last few weeks the idea of Kwasi as next leader feels beyond inconceivable.
As another example: Germany going back to using Russian gas would be a disaster for Europe, and also our 'security'.
Tory MP Giles Watling argues 'the likes of Mel Gibson' are responsible for increasing support for Scottish independence 🤦♀️
https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1585573113781256199?s=46&t=UYkitfH-yxs9iNB1xKUlCA
https://twitter.com/DalgetySusan/status/1585676800302235648
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
It's an understandable reaction, but it's the sort of thing which can make it harder for a new opposition, and isn't great for politics overall.
Though deciding which MPs are worth having stick around, and which are best cleared out, is bound to be a subject of some contention.
I think that's one of the risks for the Tories now. If the capable sensible people decide to find more interesting things to do, and only the committed ideologically inflexible types hang around, it will make it much harder for them to become a good opposition.
So one of the tasks Sunak has to achieve, if we assume that election victory is beyond him, is to keep the spirits up and encourage the best Tory MPs to want to stick around. A bit like trying hard to put together some tail-end partnerships on the fifth morning of a Test Match, so that the team's spirits aren't too crushed when it comes to the next match in the series.
Now the first thing a punter with no emotional attachment to any Party would say about that is that it implies a 16% chance of 'something else'. Since the real chances of that something else happening are vanishingly small, the odds must be out of kilter somewhere.
Frankly I'd say that 'somewhere' is bleeding obvious. When one Party is 30 points clear within two years of an election it is going to take something remarkable to stop them getting an Overall Majority. My own estimate is that it is an even money chance (50%) at worst. So from a betting perspective if you take the 2.38 you have about an 8% margin in your favour.
That would be enough to tempt me in, if I were punting. (I'm not. I'm retired, but that's how you figure it if you are playing seriously.)
You may of course disagree with my assessments of probability but the method is correct, and I rather suspect that amongst the serious punters on here a majority would reckon I'm understating the advantage in backing an OM here.
Let me give you an example. If Germany has ordered an LNG cargo, and their storage is full, it is better than cargo gets diverted to the UK, and then the ship can head off back to Qatar or Texas, than it currently sits off the coast waiting to be delivered. (Which is happening, btw, there are about half a dozen LNG ships sitting outside European harbours unable to deliver due to lack of storage.)