Possibly. 4 polls this week - movement of 8 in this, 9 in yougov and 12 in the red wall versus 3 in Redfield national. Suggests a small bounce has commenced. Basement bounce nonetheless
I’d be amazed if he didn’t get a wee bounce. Truss was abominable.
Truss abominable yes. Yeti could turn out to be almost as bad.
Possibly. 4 polls this week - movement of 8 in this, 9 in yougov and 12 in the red wall versus 3 in Redfield national. Suggests a small bounce has commenced. Basement bounce nonetheless
I’d be amazed if he didn’t get a wee bounce. Truss was abominable.
Truss abominable yes. Yeti could turn out to be almost as bad.
Possibly. 4 polls this week - movement of 8 in this, 9 in yougov and 12 in the red wall versus 3 in Redfield national. Suggests a small bounce has commenced. Basement bounce nonetheless
I’d be amazed if he didn’t get a wee bounce. Truss was abominable.
Truss abominable yes. Yeti could turn out to be almost as bad.
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
It is bizarre. I went for a walk earlier - 5.30pm ish- and it was warm.
I couldn’t remember what it was like last year, but it does feel odd
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
I disagree somewhat - it’s turning colder next week.
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
I'm sitting here in North Northumberland. Dark. Last week of October. With the windows wide open.
Yes. And the UN points out today that we are going to have to learn to live with it.
The rhetoric is shifting fairly fast from 'avoid' 'prevent' 'zero'- all of which has been self evidently impossible unless you started as you meant to go on about 40 years ago - to 'apocalypse' 'mitigate' 'grow bananas at north pole' etc.
Attention needs to be paid to:
mitigation find the upsides Climeworks etc plans for global hoovers realistic levels of making the CO2 etc increase less fast (zero or decrease won't happen) and the need for luck and for some of the science to be wrong.
the planet deciding its time for a mini ice age would help.
(Where I sit now would have had a mile of ice over my head only 20,000 years ago).
@maxseddon Putin's big foreign policy speech is underway.
He accuses the west of "escalating" tensions worldwide by "fanning the flames of war in Ukraine, provocations in Taiwan," and creating the global food crisis.
He just inverses reality and pretends it's the truth.
It's why you can't negotiate with him. How on earth do you know what he really thinks?
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
It is bizarre. I went for a walk earlier - 5.30pm ish- and it was warm.
I couldn’t remember what it was like last year, but it does feel odd
21C in London in the end. 23C here in Southern Burgundy and 25C tomorrow. A minimum of 18C tonight. The field crickets are chirping. I’m on a night walk to the next door hamlet in my t-shirt.
Central England only needs to be average for the rest of the year for 2022 to be the warmest year on record, beating 2011.
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
I'm sitting here in North Northumberland. Dark. Last week of October. With the windows wide open.
Same in Cumbria, though being Cumbria it is less warm and of course raining.
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
But October as a whole is well above average. Will out-turn as one of the warmest Octobers on record here in the UK.
20% doesn't really constitute a Sunak bounce, does it? It's more of a 'thank God Truss has gone' bounce. Nobody serious would expect the Tories to stick at anywhere near 14%. I'm astonished if they really were that low. But Truss clearly went down like a cup of sick.
We can though safely say that we havn’t seen anywhere near peak Sunak honeymoon bounce, probably not for 3 weeks or so - but the longer it goes without getting into the 30s is squeaky bum time for the Tories, as austerity, credit crisis recession infighting cock upping reality drags polling back from honeymoon peaks in a month or so.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else we should think.of 2022 and Truss days as scarring on the Tories that lasts decades.
There are options. Got date wrong Wrote today in historic present Wrote yesterday Wrote before yesterday predicting in present tense Uses different calendar.
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
But October as a whole is well above average. Will out-turn as one of the warmest Octobers on record here in the UK.
AGW is real folks!
AGW is indeed here but people always confuse weather with climate. We are in a warm set up weather wise right now.
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
What? You don't understand what "average temperature" means? I know PB caters to a comprehensive range of intellectual abilities, but I am still slightly taken aback.
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
What? You don't understand what "average temperature" means? I know PB caters to a comprehensive range of intellectual abilities, but I am still slightly taken aback.
It is irrelevant to describe a day as above the average temperature as if the temperature didn’t vary widely from day to day. Of course I know what average temperature means.
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
It is bizarre. I went for a walk earlier - 5.30pm ish- and it was warm.
I couldn’t remember what it was like last year, but it does feel odd
Yep I was out in shorts and tee today.
Was doing some garden clearing earlier, and things like my roses and geraniums have decided it's time to have another go at flowering. Silly plants.
And yes, some of it is warm weather patterns. But, as with the great heatwave (July?), those patterns are superimposed on urban effects and an underlying warming.
@maxseddon Putin's big foreign policy speech is underway.
He accuses the west of "escalating" tensions worldwide by "fanning the flames of war in Ukraine, provocations in Taiwan," and creating the global food crisis.
What's worrying is how many people in the West buy the 'fanning the flames' stuff. I get that for diplomatic reasons most countries don't really give a crap, but it's one thing for him to spout this stuff, another for people to believe it.
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
It is bizarre. I went for a walk earlier - 5.30pm ish- and it was warm.
I couldn’t remember what it was like last year, but it does feel odd
Yep I was out in shorts and tee today.
Was doing some garden clearing earlier, and things like my roses and geraniums have decided it's time to have another go at flowering. Silly plants.
And yes, some of it is warm weather patterns. But, as with the great heatwave (July?), those patterns are superimposed on urban effects and an underlying warming.
Fixable, but urgent to fix.
The remarkable July heatwave occurred at exactly the optimum time to build heat in the way it did (shortest nights, highest solar heating, combined with southerly winds). Certainly enhanced by the warming climate we’ve seen.
20% doesn't really constitute a Sunak bounce, does it? It's more of a 'thank God Truss has gone' bounce. Nobody serious would expect the Tories to stick at anywhere near 14%. I'm astonished if they really were that low. But Truss clearly went down like a cup of sick.
Yes, she did. You cant bounce without rising from the bottom however. A new leader bounce is not ususlly just the first poll after a change, its a process. May and Johnson both rose gradually for about a month until the bounce topped out, johnson then got a second wind bounce 3 months in going in to the election
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
What? You don't understand what "average temperature" means? I know PB caters to a comprehensive range of intellectual abilities, but I am still slightly taken aback.
It is irrelevant to describe a day as above the average temperature as if the temperature didn’t vary widely from day to day. Of course I know what average temperature means.
It is pellucidly clear from that gibberish that you do not.
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
What? You don't understand what "average temperature" means? I know PB caters to a comprehensive range of intellectual abilities, but I am still slightly taken aback.
It is irrelevant to describe a day as above the average temperature as if the temperature didn’t vary widely from day to day. Of course I know what average temperature means.
It is pellucidly clear from that gibberish that you do not.
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
What? You don't understand what "average temperature" means? I know PB caters to a comprehensive range of intellectual abilities, but I am still slightly taken aback.
It is irrelevant to describe a day as above the average temperature as if the temperature didn’t vary widely from day to day. Of course I know what average temperature means.
It is pellucidly clear from that gibberish that you do not.
It’s statistics isn’t it. What ‘should’ the temperature be on a given day if the average is say 13 deg C? Daily weather that generates that average has a wide range of max temps. So just because a given day is three deg above the average it doesn’t make it notable, yet meteorologists seem to think it does.
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
I'm sitting here in North Northumberland. Dark. Last week of October. With the windows wide open.
Same in Cumbria, though being Cumbria it is less warm and of course raining.
Why of course it is. Cheers for the rain shadow. It's good work you do.
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
It is bizarre. I went for a walk earlier - 5.30pm ish- and it was warm.
I couldn’t remember what it was like last year, but it does feel odd
Yep I was out in shorts and tee today.
Was doing some garden clearing earlier, and things like my roses and geraniums have decided it's time to have another go at flowering. Silly plants.
And yes, some of it is warm weather patterns. But, as with the great heatwave (July?), those patterns are superimposed on urban effects and an underlying warming.
Fixable, but urgent to fix.
Mum got some late October tomatoes in her garden this week.
We can though safely say that we havn’t seen anywhere near peak Sunak honeymoon bounce, probably not for 3 weeks or so - but the longer it goes without getting into the 30s is squeaky bum time for the Tories, as austerity, credit crisis recession infighting cock upping reality drags polling back from honeymoon peaks in a month or so.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else we should think.of 2022 and Truss days as scarring on the Tories that lasts decades.
Hmmm, pretty sure we won't see another 14% or lower before the next GE.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
20% doesn't really constitute a Sunak bounce, does it? It's more of a 'thank God Truss has gone' bounce. Nobody serious would expect the Tories to stick at anywhere near 14%. I'm astonished if they really were that low. But Truss clearly went down like a cup of sick.
Yes, she did. You cant bounce without rising from the bottom however. A new leader bounce is not ususlly just the first poll after a change, its a process. May and Johnson both rose gradually for about a month until the bounce topped out, johnson then got a second wind bounce 3 months in going in to the election
I agree, which is why I'm arguing the shifts seen today are a Truss-has-gone bounce, not a Sunak-is-here bounce. Of course Sunak may get a bounce, but I wouldn't expect it to show for a couple of weeks. Today's polls just show the Tory share moving up from utterly abysmal to pretty appalling.
Some of Vladimir Putin's remarks at Valdai sound as though they were written by the kid in the office. "Americanophobia", he says, is a form of "racism".
Wikipedia tells its punters that "In 2014 (the management of the Valdai Discussion Club was transferred to) the Valdai Club Foundation, established in 2011 by the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, the Russian International Affairs Council, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, and the Higher School of Economics."
Do any of those bodies sound like anything else?
If he apes the rich Anglosphere of the West any more, he'll do himself an injury. What's next - a Bohemiansky Grove, or perhaps a Trisided Commission? An order of Skull and Bonesniki?
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
What? You don't understand what "average temperature" means? I know PB caters to a comprehensive range of intellectual abilities, but I am still slightly taken aback.
It is irrelevant to describe a day as above the average temperature as if the temperature didn’t vary widely from day to day. Of course I know what average temperature means.
It is pellucidly clear from that gibberish that you do not.
21C in London in the end. 23C here in Southern Burgundy and 25C tomorrow. A minimum of 18C tonight. The field crickets are chirping. I’m on a night walk to the next door hamlet in my t-shirt.
Central England only needs to be average for the rest of the year for 2022 to be the warmest year on record, beating 2011.
Yes. Mean Central England Temperature hasn't been below average for a month since May 2021 (which I think it's also when the daily mean was last below the 5th percentile).
Even more phenomenal when you look at the average for the year of daily high temperatures. So far the anomaly is running at +2.45C, the previous record anomaly for the year is +1.68C. Daily Max temperatures would have to be nearly two degrees cooler than average for the rest of the year to avoid setting a new record. The Met Office will probably need to redraw the axes for their chart because of this year.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
Its data analysis, its looking at output and trends. People can infer the likely outcome for themselves. My expectation is still between 280 and 350 for Labour and 170 to 240 Tory.
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
What? You don't understand what "average temperature" means? I know PB caters to a comprehensive range of intellectual abilities, but I am still slightly taken aback.
It is irrelevant to describe a day as above the average temperature as if the temperature didn’t vary widely from day to day. Of course I know what average temperature means.
It is pellucidly clear from that gibberish that you do not.
No, it’s called weather. Current set up a long fetch southerly wafting African air our way. Turning colder next weak. I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
What? You don't understand what "average temperature" means? I know PB caters to a comprehensive range of intellectual abilities, but I am still slightly taken aback.
It is irrelevant to describe a day as above the average temperature as if the temperature didn’t vary widely from day to day. Of course I know what average temperature means.
It is pellucidly clear from that gibberish that you do not.
It’s statistics isn’t it. What ‘should’ the temperature be on a given day if the average is say 13 deg C? Daily weather that generates that average has a wide range of max temps. So just because a given day is three deg above the average it doesn’t make it notable, yet meteorologists seem to think it does.
Of course it's notable. If you didn't note down the temperatures how would you know what was average in the first place?!?
20% doesn't really constitute a Sunak bounce, does it? It's more of a 'thank God Truss has gone' bounce. Nobody serious would expect the Tories to stick at anywhere near 14%. I'm astonished if they really were that low. But Truss clearly went down like a cup of sick.
Yes, she did. You cant bounce without rising from the bottom however. A new leader bounce is not ususlly just the first poll after a change, its a process. May and Johnson both rose gradually for about a month until the bounce topped out, johnson then got a second wind bounce 3 months in going in to the election
I agree, which is why I'm arguing the shifts seen today are a Truss-has-gone bounce, not a Sunak-is-here bounce. Of course Sunak may get a bounce, but I wouldn't expect it to show for a couple of weeks. Today's polls just show the Tory share moving up from utterly abysmal to pretty appalling.
Yes, agreed. The best PM figure may well be a leading indicator of a potential Rishi premium over the next month
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
We shouldn't overstate the case though.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week
You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.
If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
We can though safely say that we havn’t seen anywhere near peak Sunak honeymoon bounce, probably not for 3 weeks or so - but the longer it goes without getting into the 30s is squeaky bum time for the Tories, as austerity, credit crisis recession infighting cock upping reality drags polling back from honeymoon peaks in a month or so.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else we should think.of 2022 and Truss days as scarring on the Tories that lasts decades.
Hmmm, pretty sure we won't see another 14% or lower before the next GE.
That is a good point. But that was only with people polling. On the other hand they did get that reading before the economic grim reality not even properly hitting voters yet and people polling polls being very dramatic? And we don’t even know to what extent the next bout of Tory infighting and revelations about Rishi himself will impact polling at the same time.
To what extent 14% was Truss, to what extent +6 is down to her going, or to what extent was 14% I am feeling credit pain and it’s the Tories I blame - my point being you are sure you know, and I’m not so sure we can know.
Here’s a betting suggestion! Tory lead this month bet could become Tory share in 30s this month? Bet.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week
You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.
If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
It's 26th October and it's 19° in London. Shouldn't we all be a bit more concerned?
Winter is coming?
Today, this afternoon, at Hannah's restaurant/café in Cannock (which is the nearest thing we have to gourmet eating) there were people sitting outside to eat afternoon tea.
Which is unheard of for October. Never mind late October. It would be notable even in September.
And there's no sign of colder weather in the immediate future.
I have never, since I started living on my own 20 years ago, not had the heating on by the start of November. This year I may not need it until the middle of the month.
Not good news for the planet. We should look forward(!) to new record lows in Arctic ice, I think.
It is a slight consolation to think that it's much worse news for Vladimir Putin.
It is bizarre. I went for a walk earlier - 5.30pm ish- and it was warm.
I couldn’t remember what it was like last year, but it does feel odd
Yep I was out in shorts and tee today.
Was doing some garden clearing earlier, and things like my roses and geraniums have decided it's time to have another go at flowering. Silly plants.
And yes, some of it is warm weather patterns. But, as with the great heatwave (July?), those patterns are superimposed on urban effects and an underlying warming.
Fixable, but urgent to fix.
Mum got some late October tomatoes in her garden this week.
we have clusters of grapes on a garden vine at latitude 55.9ºN.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week
You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.
If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
Could be the king.
Really, who would have thought Sunak would have squandered his "relief rally" so swiftly and so pointlessly?
Breaking news - swan brings Ryde pier to a standstill:
It's amazing how retro that pier is.
I wish they'd restore the pier tram. Number of times I've missed the island line train and had to walk over 1/2 mile with luggage coz the next one isn't due for an hour - due to reversing at Esplanade.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week
You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.
If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
No one is taking the mickey, Sunak is quite wisely signalling to voters he is staying in UK to concentrate on cost of living crisis.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Actually, that means the author of the tweet is downplaying the issue.
Surprisingly (for me at least) the highest November temperature recorded in England is 21.1 degrees on November 5th 1938. Be interesting to see if this is beaten by the current heatwave.
I choose November here as the highest recorded October temperature - a sweltering 29.9 degrees - was from October 1st 2011 so I thought the November record was a more realistic comparison.
We're going to get global warming peaking in the 2.1-2.4C range.
Yes, that's going to be really really shit (bear in mind we're already at 1.1-1.2C warming and it's causing problems) but it won't make us extinct.
It will probably cause all sorts of human geopolitical problems that will pose far more serious challenges than the strict geodome/ecological ones.
Given there are 8 billion or more of us and many of us live in coastal areas and our huge dependence on electricity and there are plenty of reasons to expect some awful headlines in the next 20-30 years.
We may say how "nice" it is to have a warm October but that unbelievable 36 hours in late July when we topped 40c - well, imagine it for 5-10 days and you see where we might end up. That kind of weather kills the elderly, the vulnerable, the weak, the ill-prepared but these often pass under the radar.
In many ways, the Great Smog of December 1952 (doubt anyone will be commemorating that 70th anniversary) was a wake-up call for change - the Clean Air Act - and I fear it will take a similar disaster such as a heatwave with thousands of deaths before we take climate change seriously.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
It is true. That film has a lot to answer for.
Imagine if Gibson's next one were about Cornwall ... or Yorkshire.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
We shouldn't overstate the case though.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
I insist, If Tories can’t make a few 30% polls on next month, we can be confident that’s extremely worrying. We can then be certain a lot of voters have made up their minds already.
Although 2019 was a roller coaster of polling, don’t forget how Boris swallowed the UKIP share where a lot of Mays vote had gone to. How do Tories change their low polling by eating something today? Ask Alice?
Also, in late 2018 we could look at 2019 and predict it happening - the landscape was somehow getting Brexit done - the 2023 2024 landscape is voters pissed at government for economic and credit pain - shrinking standards of living, no growth, recession, death of business.
And here’s you arguing, starting from getting no 30% share in the 2022 new PM honeymoon, won’t matter a jot, won’t signal anything?
He cut a Caribbean holiday short. He namechecked Cincinnatus in his farewell speech. He signed off in the Commons with "Hasta la vista, baby!" So why would a man like Boris Johnson – seemingly hell-bent on returning to high office – pull out of the leadership race if he genuinely did have the numbers he needed?
His choice to do so late on Sunday was telling. One of the major reasons we hear for his withdrawal was that he learned the Sun was planning a front page for Monday's edition urging him not to run.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Hmm. Neither the French nor the Irish have ever been renowned for their love of the English.
Indeed, the only people the French hate more than the English are the Parisians (who, according to numerous personal acquaintances down the years, 'are not French').
We're going to get global warming peaking in the 2.1-2.4C range.
Yes, that's going to be really really shit (bear in mind we're already at 1.1-1.2C warming and it's causing problems) but it won't make us extinct.
It will probably cause all sorts of human geopolitical problems that will pose far more serious challenges than the strict geodome/ecological ones.
Given there are 8 billion or more of us and many of us live in coastal areas and our huge dependence on electricity and there are plenty of reasons to expect some awful headlines in the next 20-30 years.
We may say how "nice" it is to have a warm October but that unbelievable 36 hours in late July when we topped 40c - well, imagine it for 5-10 days and you see where we might end up. That kind of weather kills the elderly, the vulnerable, the weak, the ill-prepared but these often pass under the radar.
In many ways, the Great Smog of December 1952 (doubt anyone will be commemorating that 70th anniversary) was a wake-up call for change - the Clean Air Act - and I fear it will take a similar disaster such as a heatwave with thousands of deaths before we take climate change seriously.
I think we're taking climate change pretty seriously now.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
We shouldn't overstate the case though.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
Sunak could win, but he's going to need Starmer to make either a disastrous policy error (like May's dementia task error) or have a Sheffield Rally moment (pretty unlikely given his personality). It's Labour's election to lose at the moment.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
It is true. That film has a lot to answer for.
Imagine if Gibson's next one were about Cornwall ... or Yorkshire.
Owen Glyndower (apologies for spelling, it’s my English lack of respect😀)
Actually, that means the author of the tweet is downplaying the issue.
Surprisingly (for me at least) the highest November temperature recorded in England is 21.1 degrees on November 5th 1938. Be interesting to see if this is beaten by the current heatwave.
I choose November here as the highest recorded October temperature - a sweltering 29.9 degrees - was from October 1st 2011 so I thought the November record was a more realistic comparison.
I was on Camber Sands that day after a trip to the Chapel Down HQ to buy some wine. Went for a wade. A remarkable day.
Other remarkable one in recent history aside from this summer’s 40C was the incredible February 2019 heatwave.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Hmm. Neither the French nor the Irish have ever been renowned for their love of the English.
Indeed, the only people the French hate more than the English are the Parisians (who, according to numerous personal acquaintances down the years, 'are not French').
In my experience, both the French and the Irish love the English. The Irish don't like the Brits, though. They can make the distinction. It's the Germans that the French detest. Many French also detest Arabs. The Scots, of course, hate the guts of the English.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
We shouldn't overstate the case though.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
I insist, If Tories can’t make a few 30% polls on next month, we can be confident that’s extremely worrying. We can then be certain a lot of voters have made up their minds already.
Although 2019 was a roller coaster of polling, don’t forget how Boris swallowed the UKIP share where a lot of Mays vote had gone to. How do Tories change their low polling by eating something today? Ask Alice?
Also, in late 2018 we could look at 2019 and predict it happening - the landscape was somehow getting Brexit done - the 2023 2024 landscape is voters pissed at government for economic and credit pain - shrinking standards of living, no growth, recession, death of business.
And here’s you arguing, starting from getting no 30% share in the 2022 new PM honeymoon, won’t matter a jot, won’t signal anything?
Yes, there are lots of good reasons for what happened in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 - they all make a lot of sense with hindsight, of course.
There will be new reasons for what happens or doesn't happen in the next 2 years too.
@maxseddon Putin's big foreign policy speech is underway.
He accuses the west of "escalating" tensions worldwide by "fanning the flames of war in Ukraine, provocations in Taiwan," and creating the global food crisis.
It really does some plausible that the evil bastard went completely mad when isolating due to the pandemic.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Loved like we used to be when in France? Did we ever get gratitude for doing what they couldn't - overthrowing Napoleon? The Nazis?
We're going to get global warming peaking in the 2.1-2.4C range.
Yes, that's going to be really really shit (bear in mind we're already at 1.1-1.2C warming and it's causing problems) but it won't make us extinct.
It will probably cause all sorts of human geopolitical problems that will pose far more serious challenges than the strict geodome/ecological ones.
Given there are 8 billion or more of us and many of us live in coastal areas and our huge dependence on electricity and there are plenty of reasons to expect some awful headlines in the next 20-30 years.
We may say how "nice" it is to have a warm October but that unbelievable 36 hours in late July when we topped 40c - well, imagine it for 5-10 days and you see where we might end up. That kind of weather kills the elderly, the vulnerable, the weak, the ill-prepared but these often pass under the radar.
In many ways, the Great Smog of December 1952 (doubt anyone will be commemorating that 70th anniversary) was a wake-up call for change - the Clean Air Act - and I fear it will take a similar disaster such as a heatwave with thousands of deaths before we take climate change seriously.
I think climate change is different. A slower burning disaster, less clear cut causality for every extreme weather event, and much slower impact of any mitigation. Smog - clean air act - cleaner air instantaneously. We’ll solve climate change over years and decades and the effect will never be completely clear. If temperatures level off by late in the century there will be people arguing we needn’t have done anything because the problem solved itself.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
Its data analysis, its looking at output and trends. People can infer the likely outcome for themselves. My expectation is still between 280 and 350 for Labour and 170 to 240 Tory.
I still say Tory vote share is key indicator to be monitoring.
No 30+ shares in November and that’s it for the Tories for a generation if not ever.
I fully expect them to poll in the 30s in November before their long expected economic driven polling collapse begins in December.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Loved like we used to be when in France? Did we ever get gratitude for doing what they couldn't - overthrowing Napoleon? The Nazis?
Be fair though. Imagine the stain on the English psyche if the Nazis had invaded here rather than France, and the French had played a leading role in liberating us. And imagine also the French had gone to Scapa Floe and sank our navy to stop the Nazis from acquiring them. And then imagine them going on about it for say, 78 years and counting.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
Its data analysis, its looking at output and trends. People can infer the likely outcome for themselves. My expectation is still between 280 and 350 for Labour and 170 to 240 Tory.
520 for Lab + Con sounds too low. Who's getting the other 130?
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Loved like we used to be when in France? Did we ever get gratitude for doing what they couldn't - overthrowing Napoleon? The Nazis?
I remember a French person telling me that Overlord wasn't needed because the Maquis would have gotten rid of the Germans by 1946.
Oh and Overlord cause so much damage to France with the air campaign.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
Its data analysis, its looking at output and trends. People can infer the likely outcome for themselves. My expectation is still between 280 and 350 for Labour and 170 to 240 Tory.
I still say Tory vote share is key indicator to be monitoring.
No 30+ shares in November and that’s it for the Tories for a generation if not ever.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Loved like we used to be when in France? Did we ever get gratitude for doing what they couldn't - overthrowing Napoleon? The Nazis?
We and the French share the blessing of being widely hated around the world in a way that is not considered xenophobic or problematic. It’s OK for people, especially in former colonies, to hate the English or the French. We can probably add the Russians to the list too since February this year.
Different with hating America. If you hate America you’re just jealous. Or Israel for obvious reasons. Then various bad regimes it’s ok to hate (eg Syria) but not the people themselves.
We're going to get global warming peaking in the 2.1-2.4C range.
Yes, that's going to be really really shit (bear in mind we're already at 1.1-1.2C warming and it's causing problems) but it won't make us extinct.
It will probably cause all sorts of human geopolitical problems that will pose far more serious challenges than the strict geodome/ecological ones.
Given there are 8 billion or more of us and many of us live in coastal areas and our huge dependence on electricity and there are plenty of reasons to expect some awful headlines in the next 20-30 years.
We may say how "nice" it is to have a warm October but that unbelievable 36 hours in late July when we topped 40c - well, imagine it for 5-10 days and you see where we might end up. That kind of weather kills the elderly, the vulnerable, the weak, the ill-prepared but these often pass under the radar.
In many ways, the Great Smog of December 1952 (doubt anyone will be commemorating that 70th anniversary) was a wake-up call for change - the Clean Air Act - and I fear it will take a similar disaster such as a heatwave with thousands of deaths before we take climate change seriously.
I think climate change is different. A slower burning disaster, less clear cut causality for every extreme weather event, and much slower impact of any mitigation. Smog - clean air act - cleaner air instantaneously. We’ll solve climate change over years and decades and the effect will never be completely clear. If temperatures level off by late in the century there will be people arguing we needn’t have done anything because the problem solved itself.
Oh, that's so true.
People will spend years tenaciously opposing what you do every step of the way. And then, when it becomes the norm, will say it was inevitable and would have happened anyway.
Actually, that means the author of the tweet is downplaying the issue.
Surprisingly (for me at least) the highest November temperature recorded in England is 21.1 degrees on November 5th 1938. Be interesting to see if this is beaten by the current heatwave.
I choose November here as the highest recorded October temperature - a sweltering 29.9 degrees - was from October 1st 2011 so I thought the November record was a more realistic comparison.
The heat is forecast to end before Tuesday, so that record will be fine. Interestingly the record for Wales is higher, 22.4C on November 1st 2015.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
We shouldn't overstate the case though.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
I insist, If Tories can’t make a few 30% polls on next month, we can be confident that’s extremely worrying. We can then be certain a lot of voters have made up their minds already.
Although 2019 was a roller coaster of polling, don’t forget how Boris swallowed the UKIP share where a lot of Mays vote had gone to. How do Tories change their low polling by eating something today? Ask Alice?
Also, in late 2018 we could look at 2019 and predict it happening - the landscape was somehow getting Brexit done - the 2023 2024 landscape is voters pissed at government for economic and credit pain - shrinking standards of living, no growth, recession, death of business.
And here’s you arguing, starting from getting no 30% share in the 2022 new PM honeymoon, won’t matter a jot, won’t signal anything?
The Tories shouldn't expect much of a bounce for getting rid of Liz. The voters look at them and go ""You want a dog chew for removing HER? You put her in - you took her out. So?"
It is going to be a slow grind back as votes are gradually earned. If they are. No guarantee.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week
You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.
If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
No one is taking the mickey, Sunak is quite wisely signalling to voters he is staying in UK to concentrate on cost of living crisis.
No other reason has or needs to be given.
What I said was that if it was being claimed to be because of a diary clash people were taking the mickey.
[Added emphasis to make it even easier for people to understand.]
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
We shouldn't overstate the case though.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
Sunak could win, but he's going to need Starmer to make either a disastrous policy error (like May's dementia task error) or have a Sheffield Rally moment (pretty unlikely given his personality). It's Labour's election to lose at the moment.
Without being overly morbid, there is also a non-zero chance that Starmer might not be the leader of the Labour party in 2 years. This has to have at least a slight impact on the betting.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Loved like we used to be when in France? Did we ever get gratitude for doing what they couldn't - overthrowing Napoleon? The Nazis?
I remember a French person telling me that Overlord wasn't needed because the Maquis would have gotten rid of the Germans by 1946.
Oh and Overlord cause so much damage to France with the air campaign.
Overlord wouldn't have been necessary had they not run away in 1940.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
Its data analysis, its looking at output and trends. People can infer the likely outcome for themselves. My expectation is still between 280 and 350 for Labour and 170 to 240 Tory.
520 for Lab + Con sounds too low. Who's getting the other 130?
That's ~30 going "somewhere else" from the current situation. That's a lot of LDs.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
It is true. That film has a lot to answer for.
Imagine if Gibson's next one were about Cornwall ... or Yorkshire.
Am I imagining it that Flower of Scotland became much more dominant as the anthem used after that film, to the expense of Scotland the Brave, or was I just watching the wrong sports?
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Loved like we used to be when in France? Did we ever get gratitude for doing what they couldn't - overthrowing Napoleon? The Nazis?
Be fair though. Imagine the stain on the English psyche if the Nazis had invaded here rather than France, and the French had played a leading role in liberating us. And imagine also the French had gone to Scapa Floe and sank our navy to stop the Nazis from acquiring them. And then imagine them going on about it for say, 78 years and counting.
On a personal and cultural level the English and French are the closest of friends. Or siblings perhaps.
The French scarcely ever think about the war. Just doesn’t come up in conversation. That’s a very British preoccupation (and German it seems, given their government’s apparent war-guilt driven policy towards Russia).
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
Its data analysis, its looking at output and trends. People can infer the likely outcome for themselves. My expectation is still between 280 and 350 for Labour and 170 to 240 Tory.
520 for Lab + Con sounds too low. Who's getting the other 130?
Hmmmmm youre right. Stick 15 on each, then 18 NI, 45 to 50 SNP, 4 PC, 25 to 30 LD, Lucas and maybe an indy or 2 (Zadrozny?) Somewhere in that range
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
We shouldn't overstate the case though.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
Sunak could win, but he's going to need Starmer to make either a disastrous policy error (like May's dementia task error) or have a Sheffield Rally moment (pretty unlikely given his personality). It's Labour's election to lose at the moment.
Without being overly morbid, there is also a non-zero chance that Starmer might not be the leader of the Labour party in 2 years. This has to have at least a slight impact on the betting.
For various reasons I'm weighing up whether to lay Keir Starmer as next PM at 1.6
It's too thin a market at present, and I'm not sure it's value, but I can see several ways that could happen.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
We shouldn't overstate the case though.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
Sunak could win, but he's going to need Starmer to make either a disastrous policy error (like May's dementia task error) or have a Sheffield Rally moment (pretty unlikely given his personality). It's Labour's election to lose at the moment.
I broadly agree, although there are several risks for Labour.
Firstly, Starmer is a poor campaigner and the Labour operation is a long way from the Rolls Royce team of the late 90s. They are plodders. Huge mistakes are unlikely, but they do go around stirring up apathy.
Secondly, Sunak might prove competent (not sure about that - he didn't give me huge confidence as Chancellor - but could happen) and over a period that erodes Labour's lead causing nervousness.
Thirdly, Starmer has some tricky colleagues post-Corbyn. The far left is significantly weakened since 2019 but are more than capable of causing embarrassment.
Finally, it's still a mountain to climb. Labour lost really badly in 2019. I don't know how incumbency will play for the rather different type of Tory who won in 2019, but suspect they are street fighters. They will probably be swept away, but won't go quietly and Labour need to up their game in areas where they've been complacent for many years.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
Its data analysis, its looking at output and trends. People can infer the likely outcome for themselves. My expectation is still between 280 and 350 for Labour and 170 to 240 Tory.
520 for Lab + Con sounds too low. Who's getting the other 130?
Well there will be over 50 SNP I suspect. Then there are 18 NI MPs. 3 or 4 for PC. 1 Green (Maybe more?)
So that is perhaps 72 or 73
That leaves 57 ish for the Lib Dems. I don't see that as being beyond the realms of possibility if a lot of the Tory heartlands have taken the hump after the last few years.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
It is true. That film has a lot to answer for.
Imagine if Gibson's next one were about Cornwall ... or Yorkshire.
Gibson as a penchant for doing bullshit anti-English/British films: Gallipoli, Braveheart and the Patriot.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week
You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.
If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
No one is taking the mickey, Sunak is quite wisely signalling to voters he is staying in UK to concentrate on cost of living crisis.
No other reason has or needs to be given.
What I said was that if it was being claimed to be because of a diary clash people were taking the mickey.
[Added emphasis to make it even easier for people to understand.]
Bit patronising coming from a thick self regarding fuck like you, Shirley.
I think actual elections will be informative - not so much the weekly contests per se but the May 2023 round covers a large proportion of rural and suburban English district and borough councils.
This is the same round that saw the Conservatives lose 2000 seats in one night in 1995.
In 2019, the Conservatives lost 1300 seats, labour lost just under 100 and the Liberal Democrats gained 700 - Independents of all hues also did very well.
The two big sets of contests will be Conservative vs Labour and Conservative vs Liberal Democrat/Independents/Residents/Greens etc
Could Labour take control of Medway from the Conservatives for example?
The latter contests include Guildford where the LDs gained 8 seats and the Residents for Guildford Villages won 15 with the Conservatives down 26. In that election, the Conservatives won Tillingbourne but lost the seat last week to a huge LD swing.
Can Sunak create a way back for the Conservatives in places like Guildford, Waverley and Tandridge?
The problem is any headway the Conservatives do make in the south could be offset by losses to Labour in the Midlands and North.
Expectations, dear boy, expectations - as someone might have once said.
Found out he would be on the back row on the photoshoot behind Greta and realised he would be totally obscured!
Actually it is the day of the Autumn Statement and concludes the day after
I would imagine most people want his undivided attention on the statement whilst he sends senior ministers to COP27
It was interesting that George Osborne arrived in Downing Street today no doubt to input into that statement
You mean they have moved the autumn statement from next Monday to that exact day.
Gives the impressio5 Rishi is not serious about World Politics and saving the Planet
Alternatively it gives the impression (which might be equally incorrect) that he is not interested in virtue signalling and would rather concentrate on trying to clean up the mess his party have created at home. Personally, though neither a Sunak nor a Tory fan I would much rather he was concentrating on pressing domestic issues at present and leaving those more qualified to deal with international issues.
COP27 also clashes with the G20 meeting in Bali on the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week
You would think they could organise these events better but then disorganisation seems to be the name of the the game these days
A few moments' googling shows that the COP27 is having a "World Leaders' Summit" on 7-8 November, the G20 is on the 15-16 November and the Autumn Statement is on 17 November.
If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
No one is taking the mickey, Sunak is quite wisely signalling to voters he is staying in UK to concentrate on cost of living crisis.
No other reason has or needs to be given.
I think people tend to overreact in both directions about attendance/non-attendance of things.
His not going doesn't signal he doesn't give a crap about the climate, but it also isn't going to resonate with people about how he is focusing on local concerns either. A couple of days out of the country would not have caused people to think he cared nothing for the cost of living crisis, not anyone who didn't already think that.
So thus far we have leads of Redfield 32 down 3 People Polling 31 down 8 YouGov 28 down 9 Red Wall 28 down 12 BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are Techne 31 Deltapoll 25 Savanta 26 MORI 21 Omnisis 34 Opinium 27 J&L 25 Kantar 4
I don’t wish to be very rude about your efforts Wooly. But polling showing lead shrinks moving from all Tory life on earth wiped out to, er, all Tory life on earth wiped out is meaningless to us. Especially if it contains (not yet though) LLG unwinding from Labour back to pre Starmergasm levels, and especially as we know political honeymoon is going on.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
We shouldn't overstate the case though.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
Sunak could win, but he's going to need Starmer to make either a disastrous policy error (like May's dementia task error) or have a Sheffield Rally moment (pretty unlikely given his personality). It's Labour's election to lose at the moment.
I broadly agree, although there are several risks for Labour.
Firstly, Starmer is a poor campaigner and the Labour operation is a long way from the Rolls Royce team of the late 90s. They are plodders. Huge mistakes are unlikely, but they do go around stirring up apathy.
Secondly, Sunak might prove competent (not sure about that - he didn't give me huge confidence as Chancellor - but could happen) and over a period that erodes Labour's lead causing nervousness.
Thirdly, Starmer has some tricky colleagues post-Corbyn. The far left is significantly weakened since 2019 but are more than capable of causing embarrassment.
Finally, it's still a mountain to climb. Labour lost really badly in 2019. I don't know how incumbency will play for the rather different type of Tory who won in 2019, but suspect they are street fighters. They will probably be swept away, but won't go quietly and Labour need to up their game in areas where they've been complacent for many years.
Boundary changes don't exactly make it easier either.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
Mel Gibson is reported to dislike the English (as well as his various other dislikes), and certainly that is reflected in his oeuvre.
The English aren't generally loved that much. I was in a cafe in France and this guy asked me something with a strange accent and I said you're not French are you? And he said he was from Dublin but he'd been working here for ten years.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
Loved like we used to be when in France? Did we ever get gratitude for doing what they couldn't - overthrowing Napoleon? The Nazis?
Be fair though. Imagine the stain on the English psyche if the Nazis had invaded here rather than France, and the French had played a leading role in liberating us. And imagine also the French had gone to Scapa Floe and sank our navy to stop the Nazis from acquiring them. And then imagine them going on about it for say, 78 years and counting.
That's not really being fair. The RN fleet was sent there to remove a threat of that element of the Marine Nationale falling into German hands, and options were offered including proceeding to the UK, or sailing to the French West Indies - as long as it was out of reach of takeover by Germany.
The French Admiral in Mers El Kebir was a popinjay who got into a strop because the envoy was a Captain not an admiral, and failed to communicate the options offered to the French Government.
By comparison the squadron of the MN in Alexandria negotiated and there were no casualties.
Bizarrely, this is actually probably true. Upon its release Alex Salmond hailed it as causing a "sea change" in views of independence. Obviously it's probably not at the top of the list but there's almost certainly some truth to the idea its historical inaccuracies and dramatic licence helped promote a folk history where Scotland was the endlessly oppressed neighbour, like Ireland, rather than a willing and full partner in the UK and Empire (whatever Scots want to do next), and Wallace as a noble freedom fighter rather than someone who fought for both sides, rather like the 100 years war and its dynastic disputes rather than being wars of national liberation or imperialism. And it maybe shouldn't be that surprising. Poetry, novels and songs have always been credited with changing or firming up political attitudes for centuries, and promoting a certain narrative. It would be more surprising if an Oscar-winning (if terrible) box office smash that specifically casts the English as irredeemable, effete villains against proud and noble Scots, had no effect on attitudes whatsoever.
It is true. That film has a lot to answer for.
Imagine if Gibson's next one were about Cornwall ... or Yorkshire.
Am I imagining it that Flower of Scotland became much more dominant as the anthem used after that film, to the expense of Scotland the Brave, or was I just watching the wrong sports?
Speaking as a musician I think they're both rubbish.
But then, the English have Jerusalem, which is worse.
The only decent national anthems in these islands are the Welsh one and the Irish one, which may have silly words but is a grand tune.
Comments
I despair of weather reporters quoting average temperatures as if that means anything at all.
Redfield 32 down 3
People Polling 31 down 8
YouGov 28 down 9
Red Wall 28 down 12
BMG 23 not polled since late Sept (up 6 since then)
And Rishi from -4 to +1 vs Keir
The latest leads of the others are
Techne 31
Deltapoll 25
Savanta 26
MORI 21
Omnisis 34
Opinium 27
J&L 25
Kantar 4
I couldn’t remember what it was like last year, but it does feel odd
The rhetoric is shifting fairly fast from 'avoid' 'prevent' 'zero'- all of which has been self evidently impossible unless you started as you meant to go on about 40 years ago - to 'apocalypse' 'mitigate' 'grow bananas at north pole' etc.
Attention needs to be paid to:
mitigation
find the upsides
Climeworks etc plans for global hoovers
realistic levels of making the CO2 etc increase less fast (zero or decrease won't happen)
and the need for luck
and for some of the science to be wrong.
the planet deciding its time for a mini ice age would help.
(Where I sit now would have had a mile of ice over my head only 20,000 years ago).
It's why you can't negotiate with him. How on earth do you know what he really thinks?
Central England only needs to be average for the rest of the year for 2022 to be the warmest year on record, beating 2011.
AGW is real folks!
Edit: 20.8C at LHR was the high there.
We can though safely say that we havn’t seen anywhere near peak Sunak honeymoon bounce, probably not for 3 weeks or so - but the longer it goes without getting into the 30s is squeaky bum time for the Tories, as austerity, credit crisis recession infighting cock upping reality drags polling back from honeymoon peaks in a month or so.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else we should think.of 2022 and Truss days as scarring on the Tories that lasts decades.
Got date wrong
Wrote today in historic present
Wrote yesterday
Wrote before yesterday predicting in present tense
Uses different calendar.
And yes, some of it is warm weather patterns. But, as with the great heatwave (July?), those patterns are superimposed on urban effects and an underlying warming.
Fixable, but urgent to fix.
https://news.sky.com/story/pablo-mari-arsenal-star-among-six-stabbed-in-milan-shopping-centre-12731763
Cheers for the rain shadow. It's good work you do.
Mum got some late October tomatoes in her garden this week.
However I think Tory share chart would be useful, to measure movement on that, particularly polls from same firms.
Don’t look at the lead gap, particularly if LLG is unwinding away from labour at same time. Just look at the Tory share. By end of November Tories need some honeymoon 30+ polls, at least from Kantor, yougov and Opinium - or else as anticipating austerity, credit crisis, recession, infighting, cockupping, reality to drag polling back from honeymoon peaks down in a month or so, not enough recovery in Tory share in coming weeks will be very frightening.
Wikipedia tells its punters that "In 2014 (the management of the Valdai Discussion Club was transferred to) the Valdai Club Foundation, established in 2011 by the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, the Russian International Affairs Council, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, and the Higher School of Economics."
Do any of those bodies sound like anything else?
If he apes the rich Anglosphere of the West any more, he'll do himself an injury. What's next - a Bohemiansky Grove, or perhaps a Trisided Commission? An order of Skull and Bonesniki?
Even more phenomenal when you look at the average for the year of daily high temperatures. So far the anomaly is running at +2.45C, the previous record anomaly for the year is +1.68C. Daily Max temperatures would have to be nearly two degrees cooler than average for the rest of the year to avoid setting a new record. The Met Office will probably need to redraw the axes for their chart because of this year.
My expectation is still between 280 and 350 for Labour and 170 to 240 Tory.
Theresa May went from humongous leads in early 2017 to a hung parliament - in weeks. Then, Corbyn led for most of the rest of the year. Yes, that Jeremy Corbyn.
Theresa May totally collapsed the Tory poll lead in early summer 2019, to its lowest national poll rating ever, with the Brexit Party sticking the boot in, and then Boris took over and it recovered. Less than 6 months later he won near a landslide majority.
Boris had clear leads in 2020-2021, Keir Starmer was way behind and his leadership was being called into question. Then, he started to get leads, Boris went, Truss shat the bed, and now we've got Rishi - and he's just pulled ahead of Starmer as best PM in one poll.
All of that has happened in the last 5 years.
How confident can we be of the next 2 years let alone the next 20?
If a supposed diary clash is being given as the reason for Sunak's non-attendance at COP27, someone is taking the mickey.
To what extent 14% was Truss, to what extent +6 is down to her going, or to what extent was 14% I am feeling credit pain and it’s the Tories I blame - my point being you are sure you know, and I’m not so sure we can know.
Here’s a betting suggestion! Tory lead this month bet could become Tory share in 30s this month? Bet.
I wish they'd restore the pier tram. Number of times I've missed the island line train and had to walk over 1/2 mile with luggage coz the next one isn't due for an hour - due to reversing at Esplanade.
No other reason has or needs to be given.
Yes, that's going to be really really shit (bear in mind we're already at 1.1-1.2C warming and it's causing problems) but it won't make us extinct.
It will probably cause all sorts of human geopolitical problems that will pose far more serious challenges than the strict geodome/ecological ones.
"Where are you from ?" He asked
"England" I said.
"You poor bastard" he said.
I wasn't surprised. I sense we're not loved like we used to be.
I choose November here as the highest recorded October temperature - a sweltering 29.9 degrees - was from October 1st 2011 so I thought the November record was a more realistic comparison.
We may say how "nice" it is to have a warm October but that unbelievable 36 hours in late July when we topped 40c - well, imagine it for 5-10 days and you see where we might end up. That kind of weather kills the elderly, the vulnerable, the weak, the ill-prepared but these often pass under the radar.
In many ways, the Great Smog of December 1952 (doubt anyone will be commemorating that 70th anniversary) was a wake-up call for change - the Clean Air Act - and I fear it will take a similar disaster such as a heatwave with thousands of deaths before we take climate change seriously.
Imagine if Gibson's next one were about Cornwall ... or Yorkshire.
Although 2019 was a roller coaster of polling, don’t forget how Boris swallowed the UKIP share where a lot of Mays vote had gone to. How do Tories change their low polling by eating something today? Ask Alice?
Also, in late 2018 we could look at 2019 and predict it happening - the landscape was somehow getting Brexit done - the 2023 2024 landscape is voters pissed at government for economic and credit pain - shrinking standards of living, no growth, recession, death of business.
And here’s you arguing, starting from getting no 30% share in the 2022 new PM honeymoon, won’t matter a jot, won’t signal anything?
He cut a Caribbean holiday short. He namechecked Cincinnatus in his farewell speech. He signed off in the Commons with "Hasta la vista, baby!" So why would a man like Boris Johnson – seemingly hell-bent on returning to high office – pull out of the leadership race if he genuinely did have the numbers he needed?
His choice to do so late on Sunday was telling. One of the major reasons we hear for his withdrawal was that he learned the Sun was planning a front page for Monday's edition urging him not to run.
A front page that his pulling out nixed.
Indeed, the only people the French hate more than the English are the Parisians (who, according to numerous personal acquaintances down the years, 'are not French').
But, it can't be stopped overnight.
Other remarkable one in recent history aside from this summer’s 40C was the incredible February 2019 heatwave.
We're past the point of no return now with emissions to zero solving it (horse has bolted) so it will need to be carbon suck/extraction and storage.
The Irish don't like the Brits, though. They can make the distinction.
It's the Germans that the French detest.
Many French also detest Arabs.
The Scots, of course, hate the guts of the English.
There will be new reasons for what happens or doesn't happen in the next 2 years too.
There are no rules.
Might be interesting!
No 30+ shares in November and that’s it for the Tories for a generation if not ever.
I fully expect them to poll in the 30s in November before their long expected economic driven polling collapse begins in December.
Oh and Overlord cause so much damage to France with the air campaign.
As things stand, I think it will be close. Labour can win. Can =\= Will. Obviously it would be good if they did.
Different with hating America. If you hate America you’re just jealous. Or Israel for obvious reasons. Then various bad regimes it’s ok to hate (eg Syria) but not the people themselves.
People will spend years tenaciously opposing what you do every step of the way. And then, when it becomes the norm, will say it was inevitable and would have happened anyway.
That's people, that is.
It is going to be a slow grind back as votes are gradually earned. If they are. No guarantee.
[Added emphasis to make it even easier for people to understand.]
The French scarcely ever think about the war. Just doesn’t come up in conversation. That’s a very British preoccupation (and German it seems, given their government’s apparent war-guilt driven policy towards Russia).
Somewhere in that range
It's too thin a market at present, and I'm not sure it's value, but I can see several ways that could happen.
Firstly, Starmer is a poor campaigner and the Labour operation is a long way from the Rolls Royce team of the late 90s. They are plodders. Huge mistakes are unlikely, but they do go around stirring up apathy.
Secondly, Sunak might prove competent (not sure about that - he didn't give me huge confidence as Chancellor - but could happen) and over a period that erodes Labour's lead causing nervousness.
Thirdly, Starmer has some tricky colleagues post-Corbyn. The far left is significantly weakened since 2019 but are more than capable of causing embarrassment.
Finally, it's still a mountain to climb. Labour lost really badly in 2019. I don't know how incumbency will play for the rather different type of Tory who won in 2019, but suspect they are street fighters. They will probably be swept away, but won't go quietly and Labour need to up their game in areas where they've been complacent for many years.
Then there are 18 NI MPs.
3 or 4 for PC.
1 Green (Maybe more?)
So that is perhaps 72 or 73
That leaves 57 ish for the Lib Dems. I don't see that as being beyond the realms of possibility if a lot of the Tory heartlands have taken the hump after the last few years.
I think actual elections will be informative - not so much the weekly contests per se but the May 2023 round covers a large proportion of rural and suburban English district and borough councils.
This is the same round that saw the Conservatives lose 2000 seats in one night in 1995.
In 2019, the Conservatives lost 1300 seats, labour lost just under 100 and the Liberal Democrats gained 700 - Independents of all hues also did very well.
The two big sets of contests will be Conservative vs Labour and Conservative vs Liberal Democrat/Independents/Residents/Greens etc
Could Labour take control of Medway from the Conservatives for example?
The latter contests include Guildford where the LDs gained 8 seats and the Residents for Guildford Villages won 15 with the Conservatives down 26. In that election, the Conservatives won Tillingbourne but lost the seat last week to a huge LD swing.
Can Sunak create a way back for the Conservatives in places like Guildford, Waverley and Tandridge?
The problem is any headway the Conservatives do make in the south could be offset by losses to Labour in the Midlands and North.
Expectations, dear boy, expectations - as someone might have once said.
His not going doesn't signal he doesn't give a crap about the climate, but it also isn't going to resonate with people about how he is focusing on local concerns either. A couple of days out of the country would not have caused people to think he cared nothing for the cost of living crisis, not anyone who didn't already think that.
https://twitter.com/FirstEdition/status/1585723440224677888?t=5fC8-LsBt_rFEE7rV8dBUQ&s=19
The French Admiral in Mers El Kebir was a popinjay who got into a strop because the envoy was a Captain not an admiral, and failed to communicate the options offered to the French Government.
By comparison the squadron of the MN in Alexandria negotiated and there were no casualties.
But then, the English have Jerusalem, which is worse.
The only decent national anthems in these islands are the Welsh one and the Irish one, which may have silly words but is a grand tune.