The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.
This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.
So the agony will be long and drawn out and in late 2024 the electorate will deliver the coup de grace, a mercy killing if you will and consign the Conservative Party to a decade or probably two of irrelevance,
Peston says the government says it's no longer a confidence vote.
At the risk of looking immodest, I glance downthread...
Eh ?
If they lose it Labour has the order paper. They're not serious if they're too weak to put a 3 line whip on this. Tbh I think that position change is the weakest thing they've done today
Indeed. As I said, they would probably rescind the whipping, and that it would as likely be worse than not. That seems to have come to pass.
The only question to which “Boris Johnson” is the answer, is “who is the fucking lying sack of shit who precipitated the collapse of British governance in the 2020s?”
Yep, in the midst of this chaos which makes the evacuation from Saigon look like Buddhist meditation, I hope Boris Johnson does not escape blame.
Because of his own tawdry and pathetic character he engineered the downfall of Rishi Sunak, thus ensuring that he was succeeded by someone even less suited to the top job than him.
It's the most chaotic period of British Government in my lifetime. We are an international laughing stock. And all taking place during a period of domestic and international crises.
This lot need booting out now. Unfortunately there's virtually no mechanism for that, so we have to endure another two years of total turmoil.
Labour lead of 40% coming up do we think? Tories back into the teens?
I am serious. Britain needs the Tories to be immolated and replaced by a Labour government and a Lib Dem opposition.
Really? After months of assurances that the parties were so interchangeable that we can add their poll scores together, you think the Lib Dems are capable of opposing a Labour government?
p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.
Yes, a lot of them would vote for Reform UK. A seat like Castle Point might even be won by them.
Nah, this catastrophic government tried to deliver Farage and Reform UK's policies and it's been a complete disaster. Faragism has been debunked as a political ideology.
Did they? It seems that everyone is characterising Liz Truss's failures in whatever way suits their preferred narrative.
Not an expert on parliamentary procedure. Surely government lose votes all the time. Are they going to have the whip removed for this?
Yes. They’ve been expressly warned as such. Three line whip and all that.
So they abstain?
It seems those who do not support the Government (and that includes abstaining) apart from those with an excuse (big meeting in Washington, hiding under a desk somewhere) will have the Whip drawn and will no longer be members of the Conservative Party.
Such MPs can and probably will serve their time in the wilderness until re-habilitated by a new leader, events or time. Losing the Whip doesn't mean expulsion from the Party unless Truss wants to throw them out as Johnson did to those who dared oppose him.
If expelled from the Party, the MP can either join another party or sit as an Independent or presumably resign and force a by-election but we're a very long way from that.
Even MPs who have lost the Whip can and will support other Government legislation so it probably makes no odds to the ability of the Government to function.
Unless. of course, this Government contrives to lose the vote tonight which would be an interesting end to the day.
It seems it's no longer a three line whip - because if it was the Tory party lost its majority.
Anyone feel like telling me how Liz did at PMQs and whether it came after or before Braverman's exit from the Cabinet?
PMQs was before the resignation. Truss exceeded what were very low expectations by virtue of turning up and not being a gibbering wreck, but it's hard to judge how well she did given the extraordinary context.
Was interesting that the Tory MPs nearly all were wearing something blue, including plenty of blue ties.
However, from the brief bit I watched, they didn't look much enthused by her performance.
I don’t think the tie thing is particularly unusual. You see red often on the Labour benches, too.
I feel like political dress has gotten lazier and lazier over the years, but that may have been my imagination.
In fairness, they didn't always colour coordinate.
How are we supposed to know which party they are if they don't wear a colour coordinated tie and, preferably, a gigantic 1974-style rosette.
The only question to which “Boris Johnson” is the answer, is “who is the fucking lying sack of shit who precipitated the collapse of British governance in the 2020s?”
Yep, in the midst of this chaos which makes the evacuation from Saigon look like Buddhist meditation, I hope Boris Johnson does not escape blame.
Because of his own tawdry and pathetic character he engineered the downfall of Rishi Sunak, thus ensuring that he was succeeded by someone even less suited to the top job than him.
It's the most chaotic period of British Government in my lifetime. We are an international laughing stock. And all taking place during a period of domestic and international crises.
This lot need booting out now. Unfortunately there's virtually no mechanism for that, so we have to endure another two years of total turmoil.
Labour lead of 40% coming up do we think? Tories back into the teens?
I am serious. Britain needs the Tories to be immolated and replaced by a Labour government and a Lib Dem opposition.
On current polls the SNP would be the official opposition.
The only question to which “Boris Johnson” is the answer, is “who is the fucking lying sack of shit who precipitated the collapse of British governance in the 2020s?”
Yep, in the midst of this chaos which makes the evacuation from Saigon look like Buddhist meditation, I hope Boris Johnson does not escape blame.
Because of his own tawdry and pathetic character he engineered the downfall of Rishi Sunak, thus ensuring that he was succeeded by someone even less suited to the top job than him.
It's the most chaotic period of British Government in my lifetime. We are an international laughing stock. And all taking place during a period of domestic and international crises.
This lot need booting out now. Unfortunately there's virtually no mechanism for that, so we have to endure another two years of total turmoil.
Labour lead of 40% coming up do we think? Tories back into the teens?
I am serious. Britain needs the Tories to be immolated and replaced by a Labour government and a Lib Dem opposition.
Really? After months of assurances that the parties were so interchangeable that we can add their poll scores together, you think the Lib Dems are capable of opposing a Labour government?
We only have a Lib Dem / SNP opposition because what is left of the Tory party will be able to sit around a typical dining room table with space for some guests.
Government announces the fracking vote is no longer a confidence vote - because of the scale of the expected rebellion by Tory MPs. Truss could not afford to expel them. It is no longer clear what authority she has over her party. Extraordinary. Yes (yawn), another u-turn
What are the odds of a TIG/Change UK style breakaway party but from the right?
Don't we already have reFUK?
Eh, time for something truly fresh. Sadly the Electoral Commission site is no longer user friendly to quickly identify newly registered parties, but we do have:
FederalUK Patriotic Alternative Freedom Alliance - Integrity, Society, Economy Democratic Liberation Party True and Fair Party Poole Together Party (Ok, that's clearly local, but too good not to show)
Government announces the fracking vote is no longer a confidence vote - because of the scale of the expected rebellion by Tory MPs. Truss could not afford to expel them. It is no longer clear what authority she has over her party. Extraordinary. Yes (yawn), another u-turn
6:58 pm · 19 Oct 2022"
Who could possibly have foreseen imposing a 3 line whip on a policy that was the opposite of a manifesto commitment and had less than 20% public support might backfire?
If the PM was flying high she'd have been able to get fracking back on the table (at least in theory, it didn't seem likely it would actually happen) despite some objections in the party. Unsurprisingly, stating losing in the face anyway, none of those against feel the need to pretend otherwise.
The change over the 3 line whip seems to have been designed to happen so late that the government would win the vote and at the same time not have to punish any rebels .
BREAKING: The House of Commons votes by 326 to 230 against banning fracking, despite the Government's own manifesto pledge not to allow shale gas extraction in the UK.
p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.
Yes, a lot of them would vote for Reform UK. A seat like Castle Point might even be won by them.
Nah, this catastrophic government tried to deliver Farage and Reform UK's policies and it's been a complete disaster. Faragism has been debunked as a political ideology.
Did they? It seems that everyone is characterising Liz Truss's failures in whatever way suits their preferred narrative.
Indeed and there are many like me that would vote tory despite everything if it meant keeping a lib dem out. Certainly not something I would do to keep labour out. Outs himself as an anyone but libdem voter
BREAKING: The House of Commons votes by 326 to 230 against banning fracking, despite the Government's own manifesto pledge not to allow shale gas extraction in the UK.
The current opinion polls might not reflect how people would actually vote in a real election. The Tory base is probably 30% not 20%. The 20% figure probably results from Tory voters expressing their annoyance at how incompetent the government is.
Plenty of wishful thinking.
The 2019 local and European elections showed what the Conservative core vote "could" be. With abstentions, I think 25% or lower is feasible - not likely but feasible. The old loyalties have been shaken as we saw in 2019. There is more volatility among voters than in previous generations and even as strong a supporter as you would have to confess the last few weeks have not seen the Government in the best of lights.
It is morbidly amusing that after seeing how the FTPA (which I initially defended) could lead to a bizarre standoff where a government wanted to resign and call a GE but could not, that we are now seeing the downsides of the other system, where the goverment cannot govern, but has no reason to call a GE and so might fight any path to trigger one.
Government announces the fracking vote is no longer a confidence vote - because of the scale of the expected rebellion by Tory MPs. Truss could not afford to expel them. It is no longer clear what authority she has over her party. Extraordinary. Yes (yawn), another u-turn
6:58 pm · 19 Oct 2022"
Who could possibly have foreseen imposing a 3 line whip on a policy that was the opposite of a manifesto commitment and had less than 20% public support might backfire?
I posted she would u-turn on this confidence vote hours ago to be honest. As you say who could not have seen that coming? Other than her useless whips office.
I’ve never seen scenes like it at the entrance to a voting lobby. Tories on open warfare. Jostling and Rees Mogg shouting at his colleagues. Whips screaming at Tories. They are done and should call a general election. Two Tory whips dragging people in. Shocking.
Congratulations to 326 MPs for voting against their own manifesto. For voting to allow fracking in your local parks and green spaces. For earthqukes.
Top job.
I'll stick up for them on that score - they aren't voting to allow in their local parks and green spaces, since are we not in the position that they are still expected to get undefined 'public consent' before it happens?
That is, they are voting for the theoretical possibility someone elses' parks and green spaces will be fracked, but in actuality none of them are likely to?
I'm in the odd position of thinking the idea behind this was a good one, just politically idiotic once the party's position collapsed.
Rumours the Tory Chief Whip has resigned. I’m on a train so can’t confirm personally.
Shadow Commons leader Thangam Debbonaire, raising a point of order, said there are “very strong rumours” the government chief whip Wendy Morton has resigned. (Guardian)
I’ve never seen scenes like it at the entrance to a voting lobby. Tories on open warfare. Jostling and Rees Mogg shouting at his colleagues. Whips screaming at Tories. They are done and should call a general election. Two Tory whips dragging people in. Shocking.
Shame no video of such things, as whilst the reports are clear it is rancrous, I find the physical man handling hard to believe - you couldn't physically drag them all the way through the lobby and to confirm their vote. Drag them in and surely they'd immediately leave, the very act of seeking to drag them would cause people to do that.
Graham Brady Old Lady aside, does the Conservative Party still have “men in grey suits” who can tell Truss “time’s up”? Or is it literally just up to Brady?
I totally misread the vote — thought fracking had been defeated.
The government defeated the Labour motion which was to ban fracking . I can understand why it’s a bit confusing as I thought initially the same thing when I saw the result being announced .
Congratulations to 326 MPs for voting against their own manifesto. For voting to allow fracking in your local parks and green spaces. For earthqukes.
Top job.
I'll stick up for them on that score - they aren't voting to allow in their local parks and green spaces, since are we not in the position that they are still expected to get undefined 'public consent' before it happens?
That is, they are voting for the theoretical possibility someone elses' parks and green spaces will be fracked, but in actuality none of them are likely to?
I'm in the odd position of thinking the idea behind this was a good one, just politically idiotic once the party's position collapsed.
"Consent" c an be chucked in the bin any time. And it's electoral gold for LD, Labour and possiblu SNP (would need to check a geological map, but Dumfries and DGT *Might* be an issue). Not to mention comedy gold for everyone else.
The trouble is that short of an uprising from the people there's no mechanism for getting us a General Election.
Labour should just keep calling confidence motions as often as they are allowed to. Even if they keep losing them. Confidence in the government should be tested as often as practical at the moment. Is there a protocol on how often you can do it?
If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him
Comments
@Peston
Government announces the fracking vote is no longer a confidence vote - because of the scale of the expected rebellion by Tory MPs. Truss could not afford to expel them. It is no longer clear what authority she has over her party. Extraordinary. Yes (yawn), another u-turn
6:58 pm · 19 Oct 2022"
FederalUK
Patriotic Alternative
Freedom Alliance - Integrity, Society, Economy
Democratic Liberation Party
True and Fair Party
Poole Together Party (Ok, that's clearly local, but too good not to show)
and so on - take your pick
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
2m
Chief Whip Resigns
Liz Truss simply has no judgement.
She needs to go immediately. Now.
The 2019 local and European elections showed what the Conservative core vote "could" be. With abstentions, I think 25% or lower is feasible - not likely but feasible. The old loyalties have been shaken as we saw in 2019. There is more volatility among voters than in previous generations and even as strong a supporter as you would have to confess the last few weeks have not seen the Government in the best of lights.
That old chestnut.
Top job.
@DPJHodges
·
4m
Just to be clear. None of us has ever seen a level of political dysfunction that comes close to this.
@Steven_Swinford
·
8m
**TOTAL CARNAGE EVERYWHERE**
Multiple posters many times a day.
@IanMurrayMP
I’ve never seen scenes like it at the entrance to a voting lobby. Tories on open warfare. Jostling and Rees Mogg shouting at his colleagues. Whips screaming at Tories.
They are done and should call a general election.
Two Tory whips dragging people in. Shocking.
7:13 pm · 19 Oct 2022"
https://twitter.com/IanMurrayMP/status/1582797073401131009
Lowest all day I think.
That is, they are voting for the theoretical possibility someone elses' parks and green spaces will be fracked, but in actuality none of them are likely to?
I'm in the odd position of thinking the idea behind this was a good one, just politically idiotic once the party's position collapsed.
However, the guy IS running to be on the Board of Directors of the Maricopa County community college system!
Enjoy your drink and view.
are “very strong rumours” the government chief whip Wendy Morton has resigned. (Guardian)
Anyone who enabled her premiership deserve to be flogged.
I still say he will not be PM, but be interesting to know what he is thinking.
This is just insane.
They all know she is finished for God's sake.