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And so Day 44 of Truss’s premiership continues – politicalbetting.com

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,578

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    If there's any prospect of that the whips could rescind the 3 line whip; I'm not sure if that's better or worse - caving or losing.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Has anyone done serious handwriting analysis of PM's signature?

    first word is either "shut" or "hunt".
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337
    So a nice drama free day then.

    Anyone feel like telling me how Liz did at PMQs and whether it came after or before Braverman's exit from the Cabinet?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Not an expert on parliamentary procedure. Surely government lose votes all the time. Are they going to have the whip removed for this?

    Yes. They’ve been expressly warned as such. Three line whip and all that.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Chris said:

    Please don’t tell me who shot JR.
    Watching the full series is on my bucket list.

    It wasn't really Pam. I doubt many people remember who it was.
    I remember!! :smiley:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,715
    While we wait, this is o/t but nice light relief - scientists looking for missing rocks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/19/rock-project-missing-midlands-birmingham-boulders
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264
    Thank goodness HMQ didn't have to put up with this shit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,466
    Heathener said:

    p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.

    Yes, a lot of them would vote for Reform UK. A seat like Castle Point might even be won by them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083

    Andy_JS said:

    James Cleverly must be wondering what's going to happen next. He's the only one left of Truss's 3 top appointments.

    We need a Goodfellas style clear-out.
    Help.me.Out.
  • Carnyx said:

    Has anyone done serious handwriting analysis of PM's signature?

    Why, has she been forging something?!

    Check out PM's John Hancock (or rather her xZylq nn?&qp) on her good-bye kiss(off) note to Cruella.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263

    Can't Labour table a confidence motion?

    The Tory party managed to turn tonight's vote into one - with the added benefit that the No vote being whipped by the Government is the opposite of what was in their 2019 manifesto.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,802
    DougSeal said:

    Not an expert on parliamentary procedure. Surely government lose votes all the time. Are they going to have the whip removed for this?

    Yes. They’ve been expressly warned as such. Three line whip and all that.
    So they abstain?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2022
    Is there a criteria for "Failed State" status? How far off is the UK?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    Cleverly does have the advantage that he's not a hardliner unlike Braverman and Kearteng.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337
    edited October 2022

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to be drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Chris said:

    Please don’t tell me who shot JR.
    Watching the full series is on my bucket list.

    It wasn't really Pam. I doubt many people remember who it was.
    i do. my lips are sealed.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263

    Red Baron of the Leftwaffe🇺🇦🌹he/him
    @rbotlw
    BREAKING: congratulations to Grant Shapps, Sebastian green, Michael fox and Corrine Stockheath on their promotion to home secretary.

    Other names are also available.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?


    We should note it. How many more votes of more that 200 will the Conservatives have this decade? Not many, I fear.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Eabhal said:

    Has anyone done serious handwriting analysis of PM's signature?

    If it's like that on the Trident letters we're fucked
    As long as they are in crayon they are genuine...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,373
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Make no mistake - at the root of Suella Braverman's resignation is a difference of view on immigration. Truss wants to follow Boris Johnson by liberalising policy on immigration & ducking fight with ECHR on small boats. Braverman thinks this is a betrayal of the 2019 electorate.

    6:00 pm · 19 Oct 2022"

    I can well believe the average elector, and certainly the 2019 Tory electorate, are more concerned by immigration than I am. But a lot has happened since then, surely many of them think we have bigger problems?

    And that explanation suggests Braverman thinks Boris betrayed the 2019 electorate too, yet she didn't resign then.
    It seems more like a clear out of the overpromoted and incompetent. It will culminate with the removal of Truss herself.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Pulpstar said:

    Cleverly does have the advantage that he's not a hardliner unlike Braverman and Kearteng.

    But he is as thick as mince. People have joked about his name…

    Lolz
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,285
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.

    Yes, a lot of them would vote for Reform UK. A seat like Castle Point might even be won by them.
    Nah, this catastrophic government tried to deliver Farage and Reform UK's policies and it's been a complete disaster. Faragism has been debunked as a political ideology.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,917
    The great thing now is that any Tory coronation of a new leader is going to be massively controversial.

    Half the party think this is a remoaner coup. The other half want Sunak. The two sides just can’t agree. I suspect Mordaunt is the only landing zone here. Nobody else would get any consensus.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,954
    edited October 2022
    At least the scenery is nice


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Is there a criteria for "Failed State" status? How far off is the UK?

    A long way. Our executive is currently dysfunctional (to put it mildly) but the organs of the state are functioning as well as before. It is in deciding policy that we're crashing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Pulpstar said:

    Cleverly does have the advantage that he's not a hardliner unlike Braverman and Kearteng.

    If I was Rees Mogg or Coffey I’d be afraid of my own ghost right now.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,802
    Are we now in an era where Prime ministers have to be effectively dragged out of office? This isn't the first time.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,270

    So a nice drama free day then.

    Anyone feel like telling me how Liz did at PMQs and whether it came after or before Braverman's exit from the Cabinet?

    PMQs was before the resignation. Truss exceeded what were very low expectations by virtue of turning up and not being a gibbering wreck, but it's hard to judge how well she did given the extraordinary context.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
    Oh, the purpose of today is simply to generate reasons to get NIMBY's to not vote for the Tory candidates at the next election
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,917
    Leon said:

    At least the scenery is nice


    High altitude is good for avoiding the worst effects of fallout.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,373

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.

    Yes, a lot of them would vote for Reform UK. A seat like Castle Point might even be won by them.
    Nah, this catastrophic government tried to deliver Farage and Reform UK's policies and it's been a complete disaster. Faragism has been debunked as a political ideology.
    A lot of people will persist with their delusions though.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,650
    TimS said:

    The great thing now is that any Tory coronation of a new leader is going to be massively controversial.

    Half the party think this is a remoaner coup. The other half want Sunak. The two sides just can’t agree. I suspect Mordaunt is the only landing zone here. Nobody else would get any consensus.

    That Sunak is now the Tory Remoaner candidate tells us a lot about how terrible all those sides are.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    So a nice drama free day then.

    Anyone feel like telling me how Liz did at PMQs and whether it came after or before Braverman's exit from the Cabinet?

    Well, people did not start resigning until after PMQs...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    eek said:

    Can't Labour table a confidence motion?

    The Tory party managed to turn tonight's vote into one - with the added benefit that the No vote being whipped by the Government is the opposite of what was in their 2019 manifesto.
    No, Labour did that by having control if it succeeds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    PaulSimon said:

    "An honest mistake involving a work e-mail on a private phone". That will be seen as a stitch-up by Braverman backers (probably correctly). I think Hunt's play is to split the right-wing vote in the MPs phase of any leadership contest.

    Translates as, 'I am not smart enough to follow rules regarding natural security.'
    Possibly, but its also probably true she is not the only one who has done it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337
    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
    Oh, the purpose of today is simply to generate reasons to get NIMBY's to not vote for the Tory candidates at the next election
    Not if they're getting cut price gas they won't.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,492

    Is there a criteria for "Failed State" status? How far off is the UK?

    It takes a bit more than shambolic politics to qualify. If we were a failed state, you'd be too busy worrying about protecting your food supplies from marauders to have time to laugh at the antics of the government.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Can't Labour table a confidence motion?

    The Tory party managed to turn tonight's vote into one - with the added benefit that the No vote being whipped by the Government is the opposite of what was in their 2019 manifesto.
    No, Labour did that by having control if it succeeds.
    Obviously it's a smart move by Labour but this should always be a 3 line whip from the govt to oppose
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,954
    The Tories can’t risk a general election because they would literally be wiped out. They have to sack Truss, get in Sunak or Mordaunt, and pray
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263

    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    5m
    Downing St sources are saying one line in
    @SuellaBraverman
    ’s resignation letter is “factually untrue”, namely that as soon as the ex home secretary “realised” her mistake, she “reported this on official channels”. They say the breach was reported to the chief whip by the person…
    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    5m
    who received the protocol-breaching email from Braverman. What is sort of astonishing about all this is that Downing St is picking holes in a cabinet resignation letter. Another first, and probably not in a good way for the government’s reputation
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264
    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sue-Ellen!!!!! :open_mouth:

    Who shot JRM?
    Pam Ewing Coffey, with Deputy PM in the role made famous back in the day by Victoria Principal?

    Dallas Opening and Closing Theme 1978 - 1991
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sKX3tWaOew
    "Miss Lizzie's" role being generally the tearful and distraught onlooker.
    "Miss Ellie" IIRC (and also wiki!)
    I was indulging in a bit of satiric licence.
    Ah! The point you were really making, is better than the one you were actually making.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337

    So a nice drama free day then.

    Anyone feel like telling me how Liz did at PMQs and whether it came after or before Braverman's exit from the Cabinet?

    PMQs was before the resignation. Truss exceeded what were very low expectations by virtue of turning up and not being a gibbering wreck, but it's hard to judge how well she did given the extraordinary context.
    Good, I thought she'd done OK when I didn't see a mass of posts about her dismal performance (both above and below the line). Pity this Braverman business has spoiled a better day.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
    Oh, the purpose of today is simply to generate reasons to get NIMBY's to not vote for the Tory candidates at the next election
    Not if they're getting cut price gas they won't.
    But there is no gas that can be affordably extracted. By the time it's economic to frack gas in the UK we've got way bigger problems to contend with (like gas will be 20x it's current price).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,479
    Heathener said:

    p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.

    If the election were now, Truss would be the face of the Conservative campaign.

    Not sure who would vote for that prospect of 5. More. Years....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    I don’t disagree, but this appears to be a party with a death wish.

    I think a decent chunk just want this fiasco over. Not enough send them over the cliff, but a surprising amount.
  • eek said:


    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    5m
    Downing St sources are saying one line in
    @SuellaBraverman
    ’s resignation letter is “factually untrue”, namely that as soon as the ex home secretary “realised” her mistake, she “reported this on official channels”. They say the breach was reported to the chief whip by the person…
    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    5m
    who received the protocol-breaching email from Braverman. What is sort of astonishing about all this is that Downing St is picking holes in a cabinet resignation letter. Another first, and probably not in a good way for the government’s reputation

    I don't see why both can't be true here.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264
    I've gone balls deep in laying Boris Johnson as next PM and also on Starmer.

    Truss won't be allowed to fight an election, and Boris ain't coming back - he should be 50/1, and absolutely there will be an election before Starmer becomes PM.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
    Oh, the purpose of today is simply to generate reasons to get NIMBY's to not vote for the Tory candidates at the next election
    Not if they're getting cut price gas they won't.
    But there is no gas that can be affordably extracted. By the time it's economic to frack gas in the UK we've got way bigger problems to contend with (like gas will be 20x it's current price).
    No need to ban it then. X100

    And there are two working wells in Lanacashire that are viable (universally acknowledged as such) absent a ban. If they pull out enough gas for a small town, that helps.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,906
    Leon said:

    The Tories can’t risk a general election because they would literally be wiped out. They have to sack Truss, get in Sunak or Mordaunt, and pray

    The only way Truss stays in power now is if Putin fires a nuke and it becomes a Civil Contingencies Act thing.

    But by then, most of us will be too busy scrapping over the last tins of baked beans to notice or care who's in charge.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,802

    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    But there has to be a change in government. When?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,466
    Good to see the public support building more wind turbines. Previous thread.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,479
    Shapps to be the shortest ever holder of high office?

    Will he make 24 hours in post?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842

    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    So the agony will be long and drawn out and in late 2024 the electorate will deliver the coup de grace, a mercy killing if you will and consign the Conservative Party to a decade or probably two of irrelevance,
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
    Oh, the purpose of today is simply to generate reasons to get NIMBY's to not vote for the Tory candidates at the next election
    Not if they're getting cut price gas they won't.
    But there is no gas that can be affordably extracted. By the time it's economic to frack gas in the UK we've got way bigger problems to contend with (like gas will be 20x it's current price).
    No need to ban it then. X100

    And there are two working wells in Lanacashire that are viable (universally acknowledged as such) absent a ban. If they pull out enough gas for a small town, that helps.
    Those wells have so far not pulled out enough to provide gas for a semi detached house.

    But hey what I do know beyond a long chat with their MD when acting as a witness for a different case in Blackpool Magistrates court.
  • So a nice drama free day then.

    Anyone feel like telling me how Liz did at PMQs and whether it came after or before Braverman's exit from the Cabinet?

    PMQs was before the resignation. Truss exceeded what were very low expectations by virtue of turning up and not being a gibbering wreck, but it's hard to judge how well she did given the extraordinary context.
    Was interesting that the Tory MPs nearly all were wearing something blue, including plenty of blue ties.

    However, from the brief bit I watched, they didn't look much enthused by her performance.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264
    I think a coronation became harder this evening, not easier.

    There are only 9 weeks until parliament rises for Christmas, and it isn't back until the New Year, and that's not enough time for a full leadership.

    Right now, I think the chances of Liz Truss officially ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party (note: not PM) this year are only about 50%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,466

    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    I wouldn't bet on it. There are enough cantankerous Tory MPs on both the left and right who might prefer an election.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
    Oh, the purpose of today is simply to generate reasons to get NIMBY's to not vote for the Tory candidates at the next election
    Not if they're getting cut price gas they won't.
    But there is no gas that can be affordably extracted. By the time it's economic to frack gas in the UK we've got way bigger problems to contend with (like gas will be 20x it's current price).
    No need to ban it then. X100

    And there are two working wells in Lanacashire that are viable (universally acknowledged as such) absent a ban. If they pull out enough gas for a small town, that helps.
    Those wells have so far not pulled out enough to provide gas for a semi detached house.

    But hey what I do know beyond a long chat with their MD when acting as a witness for a different case in Blackpool Magistrates court.
    No need to ban it then.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,634
    Carnyx said:

    While we wait, this is o/t but nice light relief - scientists looking for missing rocks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/19/rock-project-missing-midlands-birmingham-boulders

    Oddly enough, we've been looking for one or two alleged erratics in the Flatlands too.

    They are mentioned in various historic documents but seem to have gone AWOL.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    If they carry on like this for 2 more years, there will not be a Conservative Party after the next election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,479
    Leon said:

    The Tories can’t risk a general election because they would literally be wiped out. They have to sack Truss, get in Sunak or Mordaunt, and pray

    They have to sack Truss, get in Sunak or Mordaunt, and start governing with ability.

    Much may follow from that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264

    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    I don’t disagree, but this appears to be a party with a death wish.

    I think a decent chunk just want this fiasco over. Not enough send them over the cliff, but a surprising amount.
    It's the PM (and effectively the MPs) that decide if there's a GE and they're not going to vote en-masse to go to the country with Liz and risk virtually all of them losing their seats.

    To suggest otherwise is barking.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,802

    I think a coronation became harder this evening, not easier.

    There are only 9 weeks until parliament rises for Christmas, and it isn't back until the New Year, and that's not enough time for a full leadership.

    Right now, I think the chances of Liz Truss officially ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party (note: not PM) this year are only about 50%.

    If she is still PM in the new year I wouldn't be surprised if they are polling in the single figures
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,634
    Andy_JS said:

    Good to see the public support building more wind turbines. Previous thread.

    The public support all sorts of things as long as it doesn't apply to them or their local area.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,909

    So a nice drama free day then.

    Anyone feel like telling me how Liz did at PMQs and whether it came after or before Braverman's exit from the Cabinet?

    PMQs was before the resignation. Truss exceeded what were very low expectations by virtue of turning up and not being a gibbering wreck, but it's hard to judge how well she did given the extraordinary context.
    Was interesting that the Tory MPs nearly all were wearing something blue, including plenty of blue ties.

    However, from the brief bit I watched, they didn't look much enthused by her performance.
    I don’t think the tie thing is particularly unusual. You see red often on the Labour benches, too.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I think a coronation became harder this evening, not easier.

    There are only 9 weeks until parliament rises for Christmas, and it isn't back until the New Year, and that's not enough time for a full leadership.

    Right now, I think the chances of Liz Truss officially ceasing to be leader of the Conservative Party (note: not PM) this year are only about 50%.

    Yes, I'm tempted to take my Liz to exit 2022 green down to zero.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Peston says the government says it's no longer a confidence vote.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337

    Shapps to be the shortest ever holder of high office?

    Will he make 24 hours in post?

    Who gets rid of a loose canon HS and then replaces them with Shapps? Do we blame this shite on 'PM in all but name' Jeremy Hunt, or do we switch back to blaming Truss when something idiotic happens?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,909

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
    Oh, the purpose of today is simply to generate reasons to get NIMBY's to not vote for the Tory candidates at the next election
    Not if they're getting cut price gas they won't.
    But there is no gas that can be affordably extracted. By the time it's economic to frack gas in the UK we've got way bigger problems to contend with (like gas will be 20x it's current price).
    No need to ban it then. X100

    And there are two working wells in Lanacashire that are viable (universally acknowledged as such) absent a ban. If they pull out enough gas for a small town, that helps.
    Those wells have so far not pulled out enough to provide gas for a semi detached house.

    But hey what I do know beyond a long chat with their MD when acting as a witness for a different case in Blackpool Magistrates court.
    No need to ban it then.
    He’s not saying it should be banned. He’s saying it’s worthless, so spending any political capital on it is stupid.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    I wouldn't bet on it. There are enough cantankerous Tory MPs on both the left and right who might prefer an election.
    I certainly would bet on it. The number of Tory MPs who sound off about it vastly exceeds the number who'd join the crack suicide squad.

    They'd far prefer to plot and infight amongst themselves for another 2 years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,492
    What are the odds of a TIG/Change UK style breakaway party but from the right?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,578

    Peston says the government says it's no longer a confidence vote.

    At the risk of looking immodest, I glance downthread...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,466
    Heathener said:

    p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.

    The current opinion polls might not reflect how people would actually vote in a real election. The Tory base is probably 30% not 20%. The 20% figure probably results from Tory voters expressing their annoyance at how incompetent the government is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264

    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    But there has to be a change in government. When?
    Jan 2025 is the latest.

    The incentive on the Conservatives is (strongly) to get past the immediate economic crisis, hope the war in Ukraine ends, change leader and then hope to salvage something from a late recovery as the spotlight turns on Starmer.

    It's also the logical thing for them to do.
  • I've gone balls deep in laying Boris Johnson as next PM and also on Starmer.

    Truss won't be allowed to fight an election, and Boris ain't coming back - he should be 50/1, and absolutely there will be an election before Starmer becomes PM.

    Yes I think that's right - good luck and trust that comes in for you.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited October 2022

    Please don’t tell me who shot JR.
    Watching the full series is on my bucket list.

    Would it be ok to tell you, who Larry Hagman's mother was?

    No fair going to wiki - this query is for the true Dallas fans out there, plus the geezers!

    EDIT - And, anyway, think deep down, in the darkness within the human soul, we ALL killed JR.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.

    The current opinion polls might not reflect how people would actually vote in a real election. The Tory base is probably 30% not 20%. The 20% figure probably results from Tory voters expressing their annoyance at how incompetent the government is.
    Imagine being so stupid, mad, or evil to support this lot.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337
    edited October 2022
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
    Oh, the purpose of today is simply to generate reasons to get NIMBY's to not vote for the Tory candidates at the next election
    Not if they're getting cut price gas they won't.
    But there is no gas that can be affordably extracted. By the time it's economic to frack gas in the UK we've got way bigger problems to contend with (like gas will be 20x it's current price).
    No need to ban it then. X100

    And there are two working wells in Lanacashire that are viable (universally acknowledged as such) absent a ban. If they pull out enough gas for a small town, that helps.
    Those wells have so far not pulled out enough to provide gas for a semi detached house.

    But hey what I do know beyond a long chat with their MD when acting as a witness for a different case in Blackpool Magistrates court.
    No need to ban it then.
    He’s not saying it should be banned. He’s saying it’s worthless, so spending any political capital on it is stupid.
    It has to be unbanned not to be banned anymore - that is a political decision. Opponents of fracking should be delighted - they're about to be proven right.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,264

    I've gone balls deep in laying Boris Johnson as next PM and also on Starmer.

    Truss won't be allowed to fight an election, and Boris ain't coming back - he should be 50/1, and absolutely there will be an election before Starmer becomes PM.

    Yes I think that's right - good luck and trust that comes in for you.
    Thank you
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    What are the odds of a TIG/Change UK style breakaway party but from the right?

    Negligible. This side of a GE.

    I'm sure Farage is dreaming of RefUk taking up the mantle.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263

    What are the odds of a TIG/Change UK style breakaway party but from the right?

    Zilch because they saw what happened some MPs did that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    Arizona GOP candidate who said he wanted “our children protected [from] the progressive left" was arrested for masturbating outside of a preschool

    “I’m sorry. I fucked up. I’m really stressed.”

    Officials say it's too late to remove him from the ballot
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    Randy Kaufman
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,906

    What are the odds of a TIG/Change UK style breakaway party but from the right?

    Don't we already have reFUK?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,337

    What are the odds of a TIG/Change UK style breakaway party but from the right?

    I'm rather hoping for another departure from the left.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263
    Pulpstar said:

    Arizona GOP candidate who said he wanted “our children protected [from] the progressive left" was arrested for masturbating outside of a preschool

    “I’m sorry. I fucked up. I’m really stressed.”

    Officials say it's too late to remove him from the ballot

    Knowing that lot

    December headline
    Arizona GOP candidate arrested for masturbating outside of a preschool appointed Minister for preschools.
  • The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    But there has to be a change in government. When?
    Jan 2025 is the latest.

    The incentive on the Conservatives is (strongly) to get past the immediate economic crisis, hope the war in Ukraine ends, change leader and then hope to salvage something from a late recovery as the spotlight turns on Starmer.

    It's also the logical thing for them to do.
    When was the last time the Tories acted in a logical way? 2010?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,083
    mwadams said:

    Peston says the government says it's no longer a confidence vote.

    At the risk of looking immodest, I glance downthread...
    Eh ?

    If they lose it Labour has the order paper. They're not serious if they're too weak to put a 3 line whip on this.
    Tbh I think that position change is the weakest thing they've done today
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,909

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This cannot go on. But as noted on the last thread the path to a GE is not clear either.

    They need to get their shit together for a couple of months (days even, would help), before one gets called, but I no longer think we're getting to 2024.

    Just let us get to November and publication of the revised English Parliamentary boundaries at least, those poor buggers deserve their work to be seen.

    Id suggest the best route for the country is defenstrate Liz tonight and put a stabillisation team in place under Hunt/Penny/Sunak, agree to focus 100% on CoL and Ukraine and inform Starmer they'll call the election for Local election day next year in about 6 months so we avoid winter campaigning and the chaos of a GE during the winter energy crisis.
    In the middle of a terrible recession and after a god awful winter is not a good time for them to have one either, but after switching PMs once I don't think they can realistically do it again without promising they will go for a GE early, 'once the immediate crisis' is dealt with or something. Legally they can, but it is just beyond parody at the moment.

    what happens if 200+ conservatives vote against fracking?

    The collapse of the government’s authority.
    Which to be fair is already looking like the final scenes of the Towering Inferno.

    Hopefully there is a mass protest, Liz can’t remove the whip from them without losing her majority, and she is precipitated to resign.
    Anyone who votes against getting our own gas out of the ground, when they've also been responsible for the joke of an energy policy we've had up until now, doesn't deserve to pay drawing a salary at the taxpayers' expense.
    If there was any gas to extract, I might agree with you, but we don't so this is the stupidest of stupidest stunts by the Tory party.
    No need to ban it then.
    Oh, the purpose of today is simply to generate reasons to get NIMBY's to not vote for the Tory candidates at the next election
    Not if they're getting cut price gas they won't.
    But there is no gas that can be affordably extracted. By the time it's economic to frack gas in the UK we've got way bigger problems to contend with (like gas will be 20x it's current price).
    No need to ban it then. X100

    And there are two working wells in Lanacashire that are viable (universally acknowledged as such) absent a ban. If they pull out enough gas for a small town, that helps.
    Those wells have so far not pulled out enough to provide gas for a semi detached house.

    But hey what I do know beyond a long chat with their MD when acting as a witness for a different case in Blackpool Magistrates court.
    No need to ban it then.
    He’s not saying it should be banned. He’s saying it’s worthless, so spending any political capital on it is stupid.
    It has to be unbanned not to be banned anymore - that is a political decision. Opponents of fracking should be delighted - they're about to be proven right.
    Semantics. He’s talking about the political cost of the decision, not whether or not it should be banned or unbanned or whatever.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,263

    The Tories aren't going to call a suicidal early General Election under any circumstances, so you can forget any such idea just because you're embarassed and want shot of them earlier.

    This parliament is going to term. Bet accordingly.

    But there has to be a change in government. When?
    Jan 2025 is the latest.

    The incentive on the Conservatives is (strongly) to get past the immediate economic crisis, hope the war in Ukraine ends, change leader and then hope to salvage something from a late recovery as the spotlight turns on Starmer.

    It's also the logical thing for them to do.
    When was the last time the Tories acted in a logical way? 2010?
    When was Maggie forced out? 1991?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,578
    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    p.s. if the election were held now there would be a lot of true blue voters who would vote against them out of sheer anger.

    Yes, a lot of them would vote for Reform UK. A seat like Castle Point might even be won by them.
    Nah, this catastrophic government tried to deliver Farage and Reform UK's policies and it's been a complete disaster. Faragism has been debunked as a political ideology.
    A lot of people will persist with their delusions though.
    The problem with fruitloopery of this variety is that, when it inevitably (and rapidly) fails, the failure is always blamed on wreckers, and the call for more deportations only increases.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842

    DougSeal said:

    Not an expert on parliamentary procedure. Surely government lose votes all the time. Are they going to have the whip removed for this?

    Yes. They’ve been expressly warned as such. Three line whip and all that.
    So they abstain?
    It seems those who do not support the Government (and that includes abstaining) apart from those with an excuse (big meeting in Washington, hiding under a desk somewhere) will have the Whip drawn and will no longer be members of the Conservative Party.

    Such MPs can and probably will serve their time in the wilderness until re-habilitated by a new leader, events or time. Losing the Whip doesn't mean expulsion from the Party unless Truss wants to throw them out as Johnson did to those who dared oppose him.

    If expelled from the Party, the MP can either join another party or sit as an Independent or presumably resign and force a by-election but we're a very long way from that.

    Even MPs who have lost the Whip can and will support other Government legislation so it probably makes no odds to the ability of the Government to function.

    Unless. of course, this Government contrives to lose the vote tonight which would be an interesting end to the day.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited October 2022
    RobD said:

    So a nice drama free day then.

    Anyone feel like telling me how Liz did at PMQs and whether it came after or before Braverman's exit from the Cabinet?

    PMQs was before the resignation. Truss exceeded what were very low expectations by virtue of turning up and not being a gibbering wreck, but it's hard to judge how well she did given the extraordinary context.
    Was interesting that the Tory MPs nearly all were wearing something blue, including plenty of blue ties.

    However, from the brief bit I watched, they didn't look much enthused by her performance.
    I don’t think the tie thing is particularly unusual. You see red often on the Labour benches, too.
    I feel like political dress has gotten lazier and lazier over the years, but that may have been my imagination.

    In fairness, they didn't always colour coordinate.

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