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And so Day 44 of Truss’s premiership continues – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    Scott_xP said:

    After a robust interview with Steve Baker MP I used a very offensive word in an unguarded moment off air.  While it was not broadcast that word in any context is beneath the standards I set myself and I apologise unreservedly. I have reached out to Steve Baker to say sorry
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1582814264590405632

    He called him a Trussite? Bloody hell.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,491
    @DPJHodges
    Told talks are taking place amongst senior Tory MPs about mechanism for the Prime Minister’s removal.


    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1582811977637801984
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited October 2022

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    ydoethur said:

    Dies anyone know at is the greatest number of different people to hold one of the great offices of state in a single year? (Excluding general election year obviously)
    I think we might have a new record in 2022

    Four Chancellors in 2022 already holds the record.
    Ahem, four and counting, I expect.
  • Emmanuel Macron postponed a meeting with Olaf Scholz amid signs of growing splits between France and Germany over energy and defence.

    France is privately “furious” with Berlin for launching a €200 billion domestic energy aid scheme without consulting its closest EU partner, and for favouring US and foreign weaponry over EU defences, according to reports.

    German in turn is said to have privately complained about French hypocrisy and egoism.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/19/emmanuel-macron-postpones-meeting-olaf-scholz-amid-fury-germanys/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,840
    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.
    100% wrong. The reason the UK is in the state it is in now is because of Brexit.

    Politicians who should have known better pedalled a fantasy make-believe world and voters wanted to believe it so voted for it. What we have seen these past few weeks is the logical conclusion of such behaviour.

    The government pedalled a fantasy vision which the voters, in this case Cons Party members, swallowed and which as we can see is unravelling before our eyes.
    100% wrong. It's really really not.

    Take a look at benchmark figures from the US and the EU, inflation, markets etc.

    This is a global crisis caused by Covid and Russia. You can argue that the UK's position might be marginally better if we were part of the EU (though, with Covid, I'd argue absolutely not - as was the case with the UK's fast rollout of vaccines). But to say the UK is in a uniquely poor position due to Brexit is simply ignoring all the available data, which shows the US and EU doing as badly or even worse than we are on many key indicators.

    Stop trying to blame everything on your hobby horse.
    Have you been on holiday to la-la land these past two weeks?

    Have you been following the activities of our government?

    The government pedalled fantasy politics because they realised they could get away with it because they got away with it with Brexit.

    And here we are.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,491
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After a robust interview with Steve Baker MP I used a very offensive word in an unguarded moment off air.  While it was not broadcast that word in any context is beneath the standards I set myself and I apologise unreservedly. I have reached out to Steve Baker to say sorry
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1582814264590405632

    He called him a Trussite? Bloody hell.
    It was a four-letter word, so he probably called him a Tory.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,307
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    Johnson is not a one nation Tory.

    You are rewriting history. The real narrative is that at the very least Johnson tacitly sanctioned the parties. It is more likely he and his wife were directly involved. Fortunately the Met decided not to investigate the most egregious breaches, allowing your wholly false narrative that "Boris was ambushed by a cake".

    The man had to go, anyone else in any other Party would have fallen on his or her sword. Your scoundrel did not. The worst Prime Minister in my lifetime bar Truss (who is off the scale ridiculous).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    edited October 2022

    @DPJHodges
    Told talks are taking place amongst senior Tory MPs about mechanism for the Prime Minister’s removal.


    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1582811977637801984

    All together now:

    No. Shit. Sherlock.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    Please, can we have a General Election, this lot have to go, and the sooner the better, also cant wait to read how the Daily Mail will try and persuade us, we have to trust the Tories one more time
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,491
    @Tom_Winter
    NBC News: Federal prosecutors say sensitive U.S. military technology has been found in Russian weapons systems recovered in Ukraine.

    They've charged a group of Russians with illegally purchasing the technology through a network of shell companies and fake documentation.


    https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1582811654865444865
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Must say, I really thought the impose Hunt gambit would have done enough to split the Truss opposition just enough to see her through to the new year. Quite how they've managed to cause even further ructions, lose the Braverman wing, and annoy seemingly ever other Tory MP whether they voted for or against the motion today as well, I have no idea.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    Emmanuel Macron postponed a meeting with Olaf Scholz amid signs of growing splits between France and Germany over energy and defence.

    France is privately “furious” with Berlin for launching a €200 billion domestic energy aid scheme without consulting its closest EU partner, and for favouring US and foreign weaponry over EU defences, according to reports.

    German in turn is said to have privately complained about French hypocrisy and egoism.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/19/emmanuel-macron-postpones-meeting-olaf-scholz-amid-fury-germanys/

    That had me laughing in the aisles. What are they going to do next, send a representation to the Vatican asking if the Pope is Catholic?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,476

    Emmanuel Macron postponed a meeting with Olaf Scholz amid signs of growing splits between France and Germany over energy and defence.

    France is privately “furious” with Berlin for launching a €200 billion domestic energy aid scheme without consulting its closest EU partner, and for favouring US and foreign weaponry over EU defences, according to reports.

    German in turn is said to have privately complained about French hypocrisy and egoism.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/19/emmanuel-macron-postpones-meeting-olaf-scholz-amid-fury-germanys/

    They must all be Tories....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    Note that the online Hansard is explicitly saying there was "a difference between the official result of this division based on the Tellers’ count and the number of Members’ names recorded".

    So errors will come to light.


    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1582814766665383936
  • Latest:

    Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries, David Davis, Greg Clark, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Kwasi Kwarteng, Theresa May, Wendy Morton, Alok Sharma, Priti Patel and Ben Wallace, all to lose the Tory whip for not voting against the fracking ban motion.

    Them's the rules.

    I thought Boris was sunning himself in the Caribbean?
    Someone said on here earlier, that Tories had vacated all pairs? Is that true? Or did they change that?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    Johnson was, by the end, a ruinously unpopular liability - not to mention a complete moral and ethical vacuum - and it was right that he went. The fact that a collaboration between thick as mince and/or criminally insane Conservative MPs, and the senile Home Counties golf club bores of the mass membership, conspired to inflict Liz Truss upon the nation does not mean that getting rid of Johnson was a bad idea. It means that the Conservative Party, collectively, is wholly lacking in judgment and completely off its rocker.

    We don't need Johnson back. We need your lot to be sent into a very lengthy spell in Opposition.
    Or, better the LibDems or SNP can do that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    Re what happened about Wendy Morton… Apparently at one point she walked past some colleagues who asked - “is this a confidence vote?”
    And she replied: “I’m not the chief whip.”

    https://twitter.com/anushkaasthana/status/1582816161204297731
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,734
    edited October 2022

    Emmanuel Macron postponed a meeting with Olaf Scholz amid signs of growing splits between France and Germany over energy and defence.

    France is privately “furious” with Berlin for launching a €200 billion domestic energy aid scheme without consulting its closest EU partner, and for favouring US and foreign weaponry over EU defences, according to reports.

    German in turn is said to have privately complained about French hypocrisy and egoism.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/19/emmanuel-macron-postpones-meeting-olaf-scholz-amid-fury-germanys/

    As has been said before, Macron's EU Army was only ever a device to spend German defence euros in French arms factories.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The one factor that might persuade the ERG to accept Penny or Sunak is the 'it might be the only way to save my seat' factor
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,476

    Top quality cabaret from the government.

    The only pity is that @SouthamObserver wins because he tipped she would go tomorrow. Was hoping it would drag on longer.

    Hold on there....there's still three and a half hours of today to survive....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After a robust interview with Steve Baker MP I used a very offensive word in an unguarded moment off air.  While it was not broadcast that word in any context is beneath the standards I set myself and I apologise unreservedly. I have reached out to Steve Baker to say sorry
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1582814264590405632

    He called him a Trussite? Bloody hell.
    Just making me think of cenobite for some reason.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    Latest:

    Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries, David Davis, Greg Clark, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Kwasi Kwarteng, Theresa May, Wendy Morton, Alok Sharma, Priti Patel and Ben Wallace, all to lose the Tory whip for not voting against the fracking ban motion.

    Them's the rules.

    I thought Boris was sunning himself in the Caribbean?
    Someone said on here earlier, that Tories had vacated all pairs? Is that true? Or did they change that?
    If Johnson has vacated au pairs, then Carrie must be more persuasive than I...oh, sorry, misread it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    HYUFD said:


    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians

    I saw earlier you rated Johnson as the third best Conservative leader since the war and I'm interested to know on what basis.

    Churchill, of course, was electorally not very successful - yes, he won in 1951 (though Labour polled more votes) but he lost in both 1945 and 1950. However, no one can question his qualities as a war time leader and he did lead the Conservative Party for nearly 15 years.

    Margaret Thatcher led the Conservative Party for more than 15 years and won three elections, two by landslides. Her tenure transformed Britain. We'll never know if she could have won a fourth election for it was the MPs who ousted her - not the people.

    So, Boris Johnson is third apparently and yes he won a bigger majority than Eden, Heath, Major and Cameron (May didn't win a majority at all) but what about Harold MacMillan? 8 years into a Conservative Government and he won a third election with 49.4% of the vote (higher than Johnson) and a majority of 100 (bigger than Johnson).

    Would it therefore not be valid to argue Harold MacMIllan should rank as the third most successful Conservative Party leader since the war? He served six years as Prime Minister and four after his GE victory before being struck down by illness and being forced to hand over to Douglas-Hume.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    He was a moral cesspool and so are you.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,741
    Mortimer said:

    Emmanuel Macron postponed a meeting with Olaf Scholz amid signs of growing splits between France and Germany over energy and defence.

    France is privately “furious” with Berlin for launching a €200 billion domestic energy aid scheme without consulting its closest EU partner, and for favouring US and foreign weaponry over EU defences, according to reports.

    German in turn is said to have privately complained about French hypocrisy and egoism.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/19/emmanuel-macron-postpones-meeting-olaf-scholz-amid-fury-germanys/

    That had me laughing in the aisles. What are they going to do next, send a representation to the Vatican asking if the Pope is Catholic?

    To accuse Macron - of all people - of egoism!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I’d cash out of your exit date bet, if I were you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    I genuinely do feel a little sorry for Truss, even though she is the architect of her own misfortunes here, but at this point I think there is no better option than to get ahead of things and, if she wants to get ahead of things a little, make her own play for who should succeed her. Like, really surprise everyone by saying she will be recommending the king appoint Sunak or something.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,261

    Just realised that 1% of the money of the whole Next PM after Liz Truss market on Betfair Exchange is mine.

    Lol.

    "Balls Of Steel" as one of the characters said in the Rogue Trader film about Nick Leeson :smiley:
    Almost all of it is laying Boris Johnson.

    I've been hoovering up him around 15s.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,906
    edited October 2022
    TOPPING said:

    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.
    100% wrong. The reason the UK is in the state it is in now is because of Brexit.

    Politicians who should have known better pedalled a fantasy make-believe world and voters wanted to believe it so voted for it. What we have seen these past few weeks is the logical conclusion of such behaviour.

    The government pedalled a fantasy vision which the voters, in this case Cons Party members, swallowed and which as we can see is unravelling before our eyes.
    100% wrong. It's really really not.

    Take a look at benchmark figures from the US and the EU, inflation, markets etc.

    This is a global crisis caused by Covid and Russia. You can argue that the UK's position might be marginally better if we were part of the EU (though, with Covid, I'd argue absolutely not - as was the case with the UK's fast rollout of vaccines). But to say the UK is in a uniquely poor position due to Brexit is simply ignoring all the available data, which shows the US and EU doing as badly or even worse than we are on many key indicators.

    Stop trying to blame everything on your hobby horse.
    Have you been on holiday to la-la land these past two weeks?

    Have you been following the activities of our government?

    The government pedalled fantasy politics because they realised they could get away with it because they got away with it with Brexit.

    And here we are.
    The government peddled fantasy politics because they're a narrow, ideological libertarian clique who were propelled into power by the membership despite being utterly unsuited to the job. Not "because they realised they could get away with it due to getting away with brexit".

    We had a brexiteer in power (Johnson) for years and we didn't have this kind of chaos. Say what you like about Johnson, a Johnson government would not have precipitated a sovereign debt crisis as Truss and Kwarteng did. The current lot are brexit supporters who happen to be incompetent - not incompetent *because* they are brexiteers, an important distinction you seem to have missed.

    You are like a conspiracy theorist who sees lizard people behind everything - for you, the root cause and ultimate explanation of everything that goes wrong must be your hobby horse, brexit.

    The truth is far more boring. There is a global economic crisis going on, caused by Covid and the war in Ukraine. Brexit may possibly have made the UK's position marginally worse, but given the inflation, housing, market figures in the US and the EU, it looks like the entire western world is being hit in a way that is broadly similar.

    To suggest the UK's position is unique and significantly worse due to Brexit is howling in the face of all the available facts, sorry.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    LATEST The Government chief whip and her deputy might not have resigned, MPs say. The letters are written but have not been delivered. #LizTrussPM
  • Scott_xP said:

    LATEST The Government chief whip and her deputy might not have resigned, MPs say. The letters are written but have not been delivered. #LizTrussPM

    Bloody Postal strike....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,261
    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    They can't risk the next one also being barking so will take their time to get it right.

    That could be this week. Or later to an agreed timetable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians

    I saw earlier you rated Johnson as the third best Conservative leader since the war and I'm interested to know on what basis.

    Churchill, of course, was electorally not very successful - yes, he won in 1951 (though Labour polled more votes) but he lost in both 1945 and 1950. However, no one can question his qualities as a war time leader and he did lead the Conservative Party for nearly 15 years.

    Margaret Thatcher led the Conservative Party for more than 15 years and won three elections, two by landslides. Her tenure transformed Britain. We'll never know if she could have won a fourth election for it was the MPs who ousted her - not the people.

    So, Boris Johnson is third apparently and yes he won a bigger majority than Eden, Heath, Major and Cameron (May didn't win a majority at all) but what about Harold MacMillan? 8 years into a Conservative Government and he won a third election with 49.4% of the vote (higher than Johnson) and a majority of 100 (bigger than Johnson).

    Would it therefore not be valid to argue Harold MacMIllan should rank as the third most successful Conservative Party leader since the war? He served six years as Prime Minister and four after his GE victory before being struck down by illness and being forced to hand over to Douglas-Hume.
    If you had read my post I said after Churchill, Thatcher and Macmillan. However Boris achieved Brexit, one of the biggest postwar changes in the UK against establishment opposition and delivered on the vaccine rollout as well as winning an election landslide which assures his place in history
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians

    I saw earlier you rated Johnson as the third best Conservative leader since the war and I'm interested to know on what basis.

    Churchill, of course, was electorally not very successful - yes, he won in 1951 (though Labour polled more votes) but he lost in both 1945 and 1950. However, no one can question his qualities as a war time leader and he did lead the Conservative Party for nearly 15 years.

    Margaret Thatcher led the Conservative Party for more than 15 years and won three elections, two by landslides. Her tenure transformed Britain. We'll never know if she could have won a fourth election for it was the MPs who ousted her - not the people.

    So, Boris Johnson is third apparently and yes he won a bigger majority than Eden, Heath, Major and Cameron (May didn't win a majority at all) but what about Harold MacMillan? 8 years into a Conservative Government and he won a third election with 49.4% of the vote (higher than Johnson) and a majority of 100 (bigger than Johnson).

    Would it therefore not be valid to argue Harold MacMIllan should rank as the third most successful Conservative Party leader since the war? He served six years as Prime Minister and four after his GE victory before being struck down by illness and being forced to hand over to Douglas-Hume.
    General consensus is he wasn't *that* ill, it was just a tactful way of reversing his decision to fight the next election when told it would be politically impossible for him to do so.

    But I agree with your premise, Macmillan ahead of Johnson any day. Arguably Heath as well, who remains the only PM to win a working majority against a landslide majority in the age of universal suffrage.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,770
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    Keep repeating this crap doesn't make it true. Nobody complained about him eating birthday cake and an after work drink and you know it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,261
    IanB2 said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I’d cash out of your exit date bet, if I were you?
    Nope. Now is the time of maximum overreaction.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Scott_xP said:

    LATEST The Government chief whip and her deputy might not have resigned, MPs say. The letters are written but have not been delivered. #LizTrussPM

    Apart from for the payroll department, who have to calculate when officially to cease the allowance for those roles, what the hell does that matter?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Scott_xP said:

    After a robust interview with Steve Baker MP I used a very offensive word in an unguarded moment off air.  While it was not broadcast that word in any context is beneath the standards I set myself and I apologise unreservedly. I have reached out to Steve Baker to say sorry
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1582814264590405632

    For those curious

    https://twitter.com/thecentrelefty/status/1582791769892491268?s=46&t=vKl9Jk2MXrKglsqe4a7tzg
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Could Truss resign and recommend anyone she liked to the King ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,908
    nico679 said:

    Could Truss resign and recommend anyone she liked to the King ?

    It’s just a recommendation. HM’s private secretary would have their own feelers out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    NeilVW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After a robust interview with Steve Baker MP I used a very offensive word in an unguarded moment off air.  While it was not broadcast that word in any context is beneath the standards I set myself and I apologise unreservedly. I have reached out to Steve Baker to say sorry
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1582814264590405632

    For those curious

    https://twitter.com/thecentrelefty/status/1582791769892491268?s=46&t=vKl9Jk2MXrKglsqe4a7tzg
    Cue a lot of 'But it's true' laughs, but really, it's nto hard to be professional, even if you think you're off air, when you have a mic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    Keep repeating this crap doesn't make it true. Nobody complained about him eating birthday cake and an after work drink and you know it.
    Yes they did, the left and liberals like you did as you wanted any excuse to get him out as his winning the EU referendum and getting Brexit done and trouncing you at the 2019 general election was unforgiveable in your eyes
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,270
    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.



    Is covid much of a factor now? It seems to have become a background issue compared to the price shock and the rank incompetence of the government

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    I can. Just say to them Fuck you.

    See how easy that is? Their only remedy is to go whining to the courts about how their contractual rights have been infringed, which will be true, but the consequence of the court ruling to that effect would be to say that the new PM is not really the PM. Courts is gonna not want to get involved.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,307
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians

    I saw earlier you rated Johnson as the third best Conservative leader since the war and I'm interested to know on what basis.

    Churchill, of course, was electorally not very successful - yes, he won in 1951 (though Labour polled more votes) but he lost in both 1945 and 1950. However, no one can question his qualities as a war time leader and he did lead the Conservative Party for nearly 15 years.

    Margaret Thatcher led the Conservative Party for more than 15 years and won three elections, two by landslides. Her tenure transformed Britain. We'll never know if she could have won a fourth election for it was the MPs who ousted her - not the people.

    So, Boris Johnson is third apparently and yes he won a bigger majority than Eden, Heath, Major and Cameron (May didn't win a majority at all) but what about Harold MacMillan? 8 years into a Conservative Government and he won a third election with 49.4% of the vote (higher than Johnson) and a majority of 100 (bigger than Johnson).

    Would it therefore not be valid to argue Harold MacMIllan should rank as the third most successful Conservative Party leader since the war? He served six years as Prime Minister and four after his GE victory before being struck down by illness and being forced to hand over to Douglas-Hume.
    Legacy is not just about electoral success.

    Starting with the pre-election prorogation of Parliament all the way through to Chris Pincher (with possibly the exception of appointing Kate Bingham) Johnson was a disaster.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    nico679 said:

    Could Truss resign and recommend anyone she liked to the King ?

    I think he might not be inclined to take her word alone, and be entitled to ask on what basis she recommends that person as best able to command the confidence of the House.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
  • Very similar to Canada 1993.

    Con Artist > Cartoon Character

    Followed in the Great White North by > Wipe-out
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    edited October 2022
    nico679 said:

    Could Truss resign and recommend anyone she liked to the King ?

    Someone better informed than I will probably be along in a moment to confirm, but I believe that the answer is no. Truss can neither nominate a successor - nor, for that matter, ask for a dissolution - entirely off her own bat.

    If she goes without a successor being elected by the party then I think it's down to the remainder of the cabinet to put their heads together and arrive at a recommendation for the King of an individual whom they believe can command the confidence of the House.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    Given a choice between the 2 only a complete fool would still back Truss and yet 36% still do. Given a free hand they would probably put in Braverman and that is what terrifies the MPs. I am certain that the membership will be allowed nowhere near the next leadership election and it is going to take a while to figure out how that can be achieved.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    edited October 2022
    nico679 said:

    Could Truss resign and recommend anyone she liked to the King ?

    She could but if he believed the person nominated didn't command the support of the House he is under no obligation to appoint the nominee. George V passed over Curzon in 1923 even though Lords Salisbury and Stamfordham recommended Curzon after speaking to Law, Bonar Law himself thought Curzon the obvious choice and even told Baldwin that serving under Curzon would be his route to No. 10. Similarly Gladstone wanted Victoria to appoint Harcourt as his successor but she refused to hear his advice and sent for Rosebery partly to spite him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians

    I saw earlier you rated Johnson as the third best Conservative leader since the war and I'm interested to know on what basis.

    Churchill, of course, was electorally not very successful - yes, he won in 1951 (though Labour polled more votes) but he lost in both 1945 and 1950. However, no one can question his qualities as a war time leader and he did lead the Conservative Party for nearly 15 years.

    Margaret Thatcher led the Conservative Party for more than 15 years and won three elections, two by landslides. Her tenure transformed Britain. We'll never know if she could have won a fourth election for it was the MPs who ousted her - not the people.

    So, Boris Johnson is third apparently and yes he won a bigger majority than Eden, Heath, Major and Cameron (May didn't win a majority at all) but what about Harold MacMillan? 8 years into a Conservative Government and he won a third election with 49.4% of the vote (higher than Johnson) and a majority of 100 (bigger than Johnson).

    Would it therefore not be valid to argue Harold MacMIllan should rank as the third most successful Conservative Party leader since the war? He served six years as Prime Minister and four after his GE victory before being struck down by illness and being forced to hand over to Douglas-Hume.
    Legacy is not just about electoral success.
    This is the fundamental problem I think in this particular debate. To him, that is what it is all about.

    I'd say that anyone who was so electorally successful (and he was) getting ditched so soon must have royally fucked up.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.



    Is covid much of a factor now? It seems to have become a background issue compared to the price shock and the rank incompetence of the government

    Was at a meeting yesterday which hasn't happened since COVID. 11/13 thrilled to be back, 2/13 moaning that COVID will be everywhere by January, the time of the next meeting. He was laughed and shouted down. Normality has triumphed over the frit.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,371
    kle4 said:

    I genuinely do feel a little sorry for Truss, even though she is the architect of her own misfortunes here, but at this point I think there is no better option than to get ahead of things and, if she wants to get ahead of things a little, make her own play for who should succeed her. Like, really surprise everyone by saying she will be recommending the king appoint Sunak or something.

    I feel sorry for her on a personal level. But she has proven herself totally incapable of doing the job of PM. She has been a complete self inflicted disaster.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Scott_xP said:

    LATEST The Government chief whip and her deputy might not have resigned, MPs say. The letters are written but have not been delivered. #LizTrussPM

    If suppose if the PM can U-turn a few times a day, there is no harm in the lower ranks having a go as well :smile:
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    Yes but if the minority candidate doesn't withdraw then it goes to the membership (to be avoided at all costs).

    To avoid the possibility of an upsetting of the applecart where, say, Sunak stands with coronation in mind and Braverman, say, throws her hat in the ring with a tiny number of backers Graham Brady will have to restrict the possibilities in some way, e.g. a candidate can only stand with 100 + backers - that should do it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    Keep repeating this crap doesn't make it true. Nobody complained about him eating birthday cake and an after work drink and you know it.
    Never forget the context of assessing Boris vs others is summed up in the rather telling 'Boris likes women. Truss is a former adulterer' comparison.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    No Tory poll leads since December 6th, actually.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After a robust interview with Steve Baker MP I used a very offensive word in an unguarded moment off air.  While it was not broadcast that word in any context is beneath the standards I set myself and I apologise unreservedly. I have reached out to Steve Baker to say sorry
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1582814264590405632

    For those curious

    https://twitter.com/thecentrelefty/status/1582791769892491268?s=46&t=vKl9Jk2MXrKglsqe4a7tzg
    Cue a lot of 'But it's true' laughs, but really, it's nto hard to be professional, even if you think you're off air, when you have a mic.
    It should be a resigning matter for Murphy frankly, if a call centre employee were caught calling a customer a c*nt on tape after hanging up they'd be up on gross misconduct and fired
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    Keep repeating this crap doesn't make it true. Nobody complained about him eating birthday cake and an after work drink and you know it.
    Yes they did, the left and liberals like you did as you wanted any excuse to get him out as his winning the EU referendum and getting Brexit done and trouncing you at the 2019 general election was unforgiveable in your eyes
    chill, HYUFD. What was unforgiveable was his fundamental corruption and dishonesty. The Christians among us, a category patently not including you, are against that kind of shit.

    And this is law you will maintain until your dying day, sir, by the look of it: that tory governments must stay in power up to the point where you are orphaned and get to scoop the parental pool under current IHT rules. apols if that misstates your position.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    edited October 2022
    Chameleon said:

    In times of crisis Charles Walker always sums up everything very well. Properly launched into it.

    All the more convincing because he got there during the interview; it didn’t look at the beginning (which is before the Twitter clip, which just carries the dramatic bit) that he set out to be so openly scathing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,901
    Been out.
    Did we do this yet ?
    A Tory MP says the deputy chief whip, Craig Whittaker, just exclaimed as he exited the voting lobby: “I am fucking furious and I don’t give a fuck anymore.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1582800335290404865
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,476

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    The absolute pinnacle of stupid in this Government would be losing two years of a near-80 seat majority for - what??? If they can't decide what power is for, then they don't deserve it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,810
    edited October 2022

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.



    Is covid much of a factor now? It seems to have become a background issue compared to the price shock and the rank incompetence of the government

    I don't think they mean general people getting COVID in western society so much as the ongoing backlogs / delays that add lots of expense and particularly China's continued Zero COVID policy that totally f##ks up global manufacturing and shipping at the drop of a hat meaning companies that do a lot of importing are having to pay for things like extra warehousing or risk not being able to sell / produce at full capacity because things aren't available.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
    In order to drag this ludicrous pantomime out until January 2025, your MPs have first to pass a budget, and then either to rally behind Truss or manage to pick a viable successor without the entire Party imploding in an orgy of internecine warfare and eye gouging. Neither of these things is a given.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Chameleon said:

    In times of crisis Charles Walker always sums up everything very well. Properly launched into it.

    I thought he was very restrained.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Millwall 3 Watford 0 on 38????

    Is Slaven Bilic Liz Truss in disguise?

    👿👿👿
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,489
    edited October 2022
    Boris Johnson was ousted because he lied about knowingly putting a serial groper* into an important government position.

    *Sexual predator were the words of Sir Keir Starmer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    Mortimer said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.



    Is covid much of a factor now? It seems to have become a background issue compared to the price shock and the rank incompetence of the government

    Was at a meeting yesterday which hasn't happened since COVID. 11/13 thrilled to be back, 2/13 moaning that COVID will be everywhere by January, the time of the next meeting. He was laughed and shouted down. Normality has triumphed over the frit.
    I had a hospital appointment this morning and it seems the NHS (there, at least) has given up insisting on masks
  • HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    'Coming to the right conclusion after exhausting all the other possibilities....'

    Now who said that? ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Stocky said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    Yes but if the minority candidate doesn't withdraw then it goes to the membership (to be avoided at all costs).

    To avoid the possibility of an upsetting of the applecart where, say, Sunak stands with coronation in mind and Braverman, say, throws her hat in the ring with a tiny number of backers Graham Brady will have to restrict the possibilities in some way, e.g. a candidate can only stand with 100 + backers - that should do it.
    I'm in two (actually more) minds on that approach.

    On the one hand, I think it would be justified on the basis they have raised the threshold before, and they simply cannot afford to wait about with a member contest.

    On the other, so blatantly trying to avoid the members and cut out a sizable chunk of MPs from getting a candidate even if they have dozens of supporters, is just red rag to a bull.

    On another, even raising to 100 might not be enough to prevent multiple candidates - Sunak has had his turn and bombed with members (even if they regret that now), and MPs were not overwhelming either. The Braverman bunch have no reason not to go for it, and probably number a hundred all told, if they can unite.

    (Yes, I know I said I was in several minds then talked about hands)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,908
    Truss, probably the shortest serving and worst prime minister of the modern era, if not ever. Turns out cosplaying Thatcher doesn’t make you like her in any way whatsoever.
  • kle4 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After a robust interview with Steve Baker MP I used a very offensive word in an unguarded moment off air.  While it was not broadcast that word in any context is beneath the standards I set myself and I apologise unreservedly. I have reached out to Steve Baker to say sorry
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1582814264590405632

    For those curious

    https://twitter.com/thecentrelefty/status/1582791769892491268?s=46&t=vKl9Jk2MXrKglsqe4a7tzg
    Cue a lot of 'But it's true' laughs, but really, it's nto hard to be professional, even if you think you're off air, when you have a mic.
    Tbh it sounded like it was meant amiably rather than as an insult.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,741
    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    In times of crisis Charles Walker always sums up everything very well. Properly launched into it.

    All the more convincing because he got there during the interview; it didn’t look at the beginning (which is before the YT clip, which just carries the dramatic bit) that he set out to be so openly scathing.
    He was scathing but he also emphasised how frightened Tory backbenchers were about losing their jobs, which means we are stuck with this clownish shower for another two years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
    You are not "we tories," you are a psychotic fruitcake. The vast majority of actual tories here have resigned, since then, from the amoral populist ratking which has stolen the brand.
    Once everyone has resigned, only true Tories remain!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,920
    IanB2 said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I’d cash out of your exit date bet, if I were you?
    I would have thought the Braverman resignation, especially if due partially to Immigration policy, would make it almost impossible for a Tory coronation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    King Charles: Now I will be PM
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Nigelb said:

    Been out.
    Did we do this yet ?
    A Tory MP says the deputy chief whip, Craig Whittaker, just exclaimed as he exited the voting lobby: “I am fucking furious and I don’t give a fuck anymore.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1582800335290404865

    Been a surfeit of new material for The Thick of it or 2022 in the past few months. What a pitiful joke the bunch of clowns in government are.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,715

    How did Truss win with 96 majority on fracking?

    Did the SNP sit this one out?
    Checked now. No, voted with Labour generally (didn't check every last one). Of course hydrocarbon licensing is a UKG reserved matter, I had forgotten.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    5m
    The Government is currently unable to say if there is a Chief Whip.
  • Liam Fox said to be lobbying to be chief whip if Wendy Morton has resigned/been fired.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1582820923488759808
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,650

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    The absolute pinnacle of stupid in this Government would be losing two years of a near-80 seat majority for - what??? If they can't decide what power is for, then they don't deserve it.
    They were elected to deliver eaten and had cake and free owls. It makes perfect sense to hand back an impossible mandate.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,261
    RobD said:

    Truss, probably the shortest serving and worst prime minister of the modern era, if not ever. Turns out cosplaying Thatcher doesn’t make you like her in any way whatsoever.

    I don't know why any of us are surprised?

    I mean, she is heavily into S&M.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,906

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.



    Is covid much of a factor now? It seems to have become a background issue compared to the price shock and the rank incompetence of the government

    Covid is still being felt in supply chains, especially with China's zero covid policy

    I am also waiting for enough data to prove my theory that the WFH revolution is massively beneficial to the skilled, educated class who can be trusted to work from home efficiently and effectively, but massively detrimental to the wider economy because most people are neither skilled, nor able to be trusted to work from home effectively. My thesis is that the WFH boom massively benefits the managerial class who are inherently hard working and dedicated, but leads to far lower productivity amongst lower skilled workers who need more direct management.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Ishmael_Z said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    I can. Just say to them Fuck you.

    See how easy that is? Their only remedy is to go whining to the courts about how their contractual rights have been infringed, which will be true, but the consequence of the court ruling to that effect would be to say that the new PM is not really the PM. Courts is gonna not want to get involved.
    I agree with your sentiments but, as I understand it, the membership vote is enshrined in their constitution and a there can't be a VONC for 12 months. Howe easy those things are to change I don't know. Perhaps someone more au fait with the internal workings of the Tory party can enlighten us.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Liam Fox said to be lobbying to be chief whip if Wendy Morton has resigned/been fired.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1582820923488759808

    For him or Adam Werrity?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Liam Fox said to be lobbying to be chief whip if Wendy Morton has resigned/been fired.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1582820923488759808

    Why the heck would anyone lobby for that awful job?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    Nigelb said:

    Been out.
    Did we do this yet ?
    A Tory MP says the deputy chief whip, Craig Whittaker, just exclaimed as he exited the voting lobby: “I am fucking furious and I don’t give a fuck anymore.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1582800335290404865

    And finally, we arrive at the Howard Beale moment. It all falls apart amidst total despair.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,238
    How come Grant Shapps is Home Secretary when he was one of the leading plotters to get Truss out just a few days ago?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    GIN1138 said:

    How come Grant Shapps is Home Secretary when he was one of the leading plotters to get Truss out just a few days ago?

    Cos Hunt is in charge
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,908
    .
    GIN1138 said:

    How come Grant Shapps is Home Secretary when he was one of the leading plotters to get Truss out just a few days ago?

    He’s the only person that accepted the offer?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,751
    GIN1138 said:

    How come Grant Shapps is Home Secretary when he was one of the leading plotters to get Truss out just a few days ago?

    Because Truss isn't in charge anymore.
This discussion has been closed.