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And so Day 44 of Truss’s premiership continues – politicalbetting.com

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  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705


    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    5m
    The Government is currently unable to say if there is a Chief Whip.

    Promote the Deputy Chief Whi...oh.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    At least tonight we've confirmed that fracking does indeed cause (political) earthquakes...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649

    IanB2 said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I’d cash out of your exit date bet, if I were you?
    I would have thought the Braverman resignation, especially if due partially to Immigration policy, would make it almost impossible for a Tory coronation.
    If the threshold is 150 MPs to be nominated a coronation still very possible
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited October 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    How come Grant Shapps is Home Secretary when he was one of the leading plotters to get Truss out just a few days ago?

    No one knows, but I like that whoever updates the government ministerial page is managing to keep it up to date even with all that is going on.

    I've no reason to dislike her, but it might be funny if Donelan doesn't remain in Cabinet once Truss goes, as she'd have served two Cabinet posts in the same year for a total of about 50 days.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,238
    edited October 2022

    GIN1138 said:

    How come Grant Shapps is Home Secretary when he was one of the leading plotters to get Truss out just a few days ago?

    Cos Hunt is in charge
    I mean "in charge" is kind of subjective when it comes to this ******* shower...
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    LATEST The Government chief whip and her deputy might not have resigned, MPs say. The letters are written but have not been delivered. #LizTrussPM

    Apart from for the payroll department, who have to calculate when officially to cease the allowance for those roles, what the hell does that matter?
    Years ago in Seattle, there was a state legislator who filed for reelection, then filed to reverse that, then thought better of it.

    Ended up staying on ballot - and winning reelection - because the paperwork to take his name off arrived by fax a few minutes AFTER deadline.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    Keep repeating this crap doesn't make it true. Nobody complained about him eating birthday cake and an after work drink and you know it.
    Yes they did, the left and liberals like you did as you wanted any excuse to get him out as his winning the EU referendum and getting Brexit done and trouncing you at the 2019 general election was unforgiveable in your eyes
    Firstly, unlike you I don't bear grudges or have vendettas so no. Please don't impose your own mental flaws upon me. I wanted him out because of the endless lies, corruption and disruption and pushing the constitution to its limits. I did not give a toss that he had birthday cake or a glass of wine after work. Parties with case loads of drinks and discos yes, but only because of the hypocrisy.
    Of course you do, you have always hated Boris and wanted to knife him as soon as the opportunity arose. The birthday cake and after work drinks were just the excuse you needed.

    Boris was never at any of the discos
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    If Wendy Morton has resigned, who on earth would take the job of chief whip? Like taking the post of doorkeeper at the US embassy in Saigon as the last helicopter lifts off the roof

    @ShippersUnbound Oh god it’s Matt Hancock isn’t it
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,260
    This genuine? Krish G-M drops the C-bomb on Steve Baker:

    https://twitter.com/Parody_PM/status/1582820555522478080?t=_n_KnKRsRfkMNSZjTVC9SQ&s=19
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592
    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    In times of crisis Charles Walker always sums up everything very well. Properly launched into it.

    All the more convincing because he got there during the interview; it didn’t look at the beginning (which is before the Twitter clip, which just carries the dramatic bit) that he set out to be so openly scathing.
    Explosive. And he speaks for many no doubt.

    The Tories are facing a generational wipeout.

    Unfit to govern. Incapable of managing the economy. Unable to form a functioning administration. What else is there for a conservative party? I guess it can only be topped by Truss losing Scotland from the union.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
    In order to drag this ludicrous pantomime out until January 2025, your MPs have first to pass a budget, and then either to rally behind Truss or manage to pick a viable successor without the entire Party imploding in an orgy of internecine warfare and eye gouging. Neither of these things is a given.
    They have a majority of 80, they certainly can
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I’d cash out of your exit date bet, if I were you?
    I would have thought the Braverman resignation, especially if due partially to Immigration policy, would make it almost impossible for a Tory coronation.
    If the threshold is 150 MPs to be nominated a coronation still very possible
    How do you feel such a threshold would go down with members? It can be justified as needing whoever is the clear choice of MPs, and no timewasters needed, but would the rest wear it?

    In practical terms I worry how it would work - if there was a hard deadline, and various people were trying to convince another to drop out and get their backers to back them, you might end up with no one getting enough in time!

    Like a papal synod, everyone votes for themselves first time?
  • Senior Tory MP: "I personally think she has to go TONIGHT. I've never seen anything like that in my life.

    "My understanding is a shedload of letters have gone in today. After tonight, you're going to see absolute chaos. The next 24 hours are going to be hell for Liz."


    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1582818679061823488
  • Pretty sure that is what is heard uttered in the Ch4 News offices every day about all the Tories.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,920

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,238
    Yes. Saw that on Twitter earlier. The entire village is losing their minds at the moment lol...
  • kle4 said:

    Liam Fox said to be lobbying to be chief whip if Wendy Morton has resigned/been fired.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1582820923488759808

    Why the heck would anyone lobby for that awful job?
    Cost of living crisis, extra pennies.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    28m
    Q to minister: Is this the end of days? "I think so, it feels like that to me. This is utter madness."
    Q what next? Only way out of this is a coalition deal between Mordaunt & Sunak. It's only a matter to time before she's forced out. This is not sustainable"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    Prime Minister Liz Truss grabbed Wendy Morton’s arm to try to persuade her not to resign but Morton left the lobby trailing the Prime Minister behind her. In the chaos, the premier did not vote.
    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582823352909332482
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,489
    edited October 2022
    My source was correct.

    Prime Minister Liz Truss grabbed Wendy Morton’s arm to try to persuade her not to resign but Morton left the lobby trailing the Prime Minister behind her. In the chaos, the premier did not vote.

    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582823352909332482
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,810
    edited October 2022
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.



    Is covid much of a factor now? It seems to have become a background issue compared to the price shock and the rank incompetence of the government

    Covid is still being felt in supply chains, especially with China's zero covid policy

    I am also waiting for enough data to prove my theory that the WFH revolution is massively beneficial to the skilled, educated class who can be trusted to work from home efficiently and effectively, but massively detrimental to the wider economy because most people are neither skilled, nor able to be trusted to work from home effectively. My thesis is that the WFH boom massively benefits the managerial class who are inherently hard working and dedicated, but leads to far lower productivity amongst lower skilled workers who need more direct management.
    I am not even sure its true for those people. They often rely on their team to provide support, data, reports, etc. If all that is taking longer to complete it can only negatively effect their productivity.

    I was talking to some academics at a leading UK university the other day (a category you would think should be self-motivate and not be too negatively affected by moving more to WFH) and they were bemoaning just how the systems and processes have broken down such that they are wasting loads of extra time trying to chase up stuff that should be done, that admin staff are spending 4 out of 5 days WFH so things like printers and stationary aren't getting sorted.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,238

    Breaking: Paul Gascoigne has just arrived at the Commons carrying a fishing rod and takeout telling police he is a friend of Liz Truss.

    LOL! 😂
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,907

    Prime Minister Liz Truss grabbed Wendy Morton’s arm to try to persuade her not to resign but Morton left the lobby trailing the Prime Minister behind her. In the chaos, the premier did not vote.

    She handles a crisis well then. My god.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    28m
    Q to minister: Is this the end of days? "I think so, it feels like that to me. This is utter madness."
    Q what next? Only way out of this is a coalition deal between Mordaunt & Sunak. It's only a matter to time before she's forced out. This is not sustainable"

    Well it's not hard - Sunak PM, Mordaunt Deputy PM and Foreign Secretary. Hunt Chancellor, and then the least headbangery headbanger for Home Secretary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    kle4 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After a robust interview with Steve Baker MP I used a very offensive word in an unguarded moment off air.  While it was not broadcast that word in any context is beneath the standards I set myself and I apologise unreservedly. I have reached out to Steve Baker to say sorry
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1582814264590405632

    For those curious

    https://twitter.com/thecentrelefty/status/1582791769892491268?s=46&t=vKl9Jk2MXrKglsqe4a7tzg
    Cue a lot of 'But it's true' laughs, but really, it's nto hard to be professional, even if you think you're off air, when you have a mic.
    It should be a resigning matter for Murphy frankly, if a call centre employee were caught calling a customer a c*nt on tape after hanging up they'd be up on gross misconduct and fired
    That seems unlikely given there are still call centre employees.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    edited October 2022

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a quarter to a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,770
    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    If anyone wanted to predict this shambles they should have read Alan Duncan's book. He said everything Johnson touched would turn to shit and he would be a complete disaster as PM and take the party down with him

    Well Duncan was wrong in that as Johnson won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher after May left a hung parliament, got Brexit completed and oversaw the
    roll out of the vaccines.

    Only since Boris was removed has the party descended into the current chaos and huge Labour lead
    Labour were getting leads of over 10% when Boris was PM.

    Yes, it has gotten much worse because Truss has collapsed things, but the Tories were quite a way behind already, and it has gone into overdrive only in the last 2 weeks.

    As good a job as Boris did in 2019, you simply cannot pretend that he was as popular in 2022 as he was in 2019. Times have moved on. He was behind.

    The question was whether he could recover from that position. MPs felt the answer was no.

    MPs have been wrong before, they were wrong about Truss deserving of being in the final two for a start, but let's also not forget that the Tories you like the most, such as JRM, were vocal Truss backers, and Boris wanted her to win over Rishi as well.
    The last Opinium poll before Boris resigned had Labour just 5% ahead, they are now 21% ahead


    Just stop this idiotic denial of toxic Johnson who has led us to today and I hope you and your fellow ERG travellers are marginalised as those of is who are one nation conservatives fight for a decent compassionate honest and responsible party
    Johnson was leading a One Nation government with a huge majority he won until the likes of you demanded he had to go because he ate a birthday cake and had an afterwork drink. It was then you who handed the party over to the libertarians
    Keep repeating this crap doesn't make it true. Nobody complained about him eating birthday cake and an after work drink and you know it.
    Never forget the context of assessing Boris vs others is summed up in the rather telling 'Boris likes women. Truss is a former adulterer' comparison.
    Yes I noted that at the time and was taken aback by it. Although I read most of PB I 'like' much much more than I post and there is only so much I have time to respond to and I let that one go, but it was shocking. I doubt he even realises the double standards of his posts
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,565
    119 is the number
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    Braverman is going to try and do a Geoffry Howe tomorrow, isn’t she?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
    In order to drag this ludicrous pantomime out until January 2025, your MPs have first to pass a budget, and then either to rally behind Truss or manage to pick a viable successor without the entire Party imploding in an orgy of internecine warfare and eye gouging. Neither of these things is a given.
    They have a majority of 80, they certainly can
    Who is "they" though? The Parliamentary Conservative Party is no longer a single coherent entity. We have had frogmarching of reluctant members through the lobbies and senior MPs, variously, saying they no longer give a fuck or that they are sick to death of their 'talentless' colleagues. All they now have left in common is a desire not to be thrown out of work by the electorate, but a growing number of them must now view that as inevitable and therefore have little left to lose by venting their frustrations, loudly and continuously, in the open.

    The Tories aren't a party anymore. They're a rabble.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Bring back May.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,260

    Senior Tory MP: "I personally think she has to go TONIGHT. I've never seen anything like that in my life.

    "My understanding is a shedload of letters have gone in today. After tonight, you're going to see absolute chaos. The next 24 hours are going to be hell for Liz."


    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1582818679061823488

    Hmm. My balls not feeling quite so steely after that.

    Still holding it though. Let's see what really happens tomorrow and Friday.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,751
    kle4 said:


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    28m
    Q to minister: Is this the end of days? "I think so, it feels like that to me. This is utter madness."
    Q what next? Only way out of this is a coalition deal between Mordaunt & Sunak. It's only a matter to time before she's forced out. This is not sustainable"

    Well it's not hard - Sunak PM, Mordaunt Deputy PM and Foreign Secretary. Hunt Chancellor, and then the least headbangery headbanger for Home Secretary.
    Steve "C**t" Baker at the Home Office then?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    After a robust interview with Steve Baker MP I used a very offensive word in an unguarded moment off air.  While it was not broadcast that word in any context is beneath the standards I set myself and I apologise unreservedly. I have reached out to Steve Baker to say sorry
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1582814264590405632

    For those curious

    https://twitter.com/thecentrelefty/status/1582791769892491268?s=46&t=vKl9Jk2MXrKglsqe4a7tzg
    Cue a lot of 'But it's true' laughs, but really, it's nto hard to be professional, even if you think you're off air, when you have a mic.
    It should be a resigning matter for Murphy frankly, if a call centre employee were caught calling a customer a c*nt on tape after hanging up they'd be up on gross misconduct and fired
    That seems unlikely given there are still call centre employees.
    Yes, the clever ones wait until the headphones are off. I had to deal with one such case once
    Its unacceptable and unprofessional from KGM
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,751
    kle4 said:


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    28m
    Q to minister: Is this the end of days? "I think so, it feels like that to me. This is utter madness."
    Q what next? Only way out of this is a coalition deal between Mordaunt & Sunak. It's only a matter to time before she's forced out. This is not sustainable"

    Well it's not hard - Sunak PM, Mordaunt Deputy PM and Foreign Secretary. Hunt Chancellor, and then the least headbangery headbanger for Home Secretary.
    Steve "C**t" Baker at the Home Office then?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    IanB2 said:

    Braverman is going to try and do a Geoffrey Howe tomorrow, isn’t she?

    She's after the throne. Second place in the MPs vote, then winning by accusing Sunak or whoever of heresy against the true faith in the member ballot. Truss Mk 2. It may well work, if the party doesn't split before things get that far.
  • pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
    In order to drag this ludicrous pantomime out until January 2025, your MPs have first to pass a budget, and then either to rally behind Truss or manage to pick a viable successor without the entire Party imploding in an orgy of internecine warfare and eye gouging. Neither of these things is a given.
    They have a majority of 80, they certainly can
    Who is "they" though? The Parliamentary Conservative Party is no longer a single coherent entity. We have had frogmarching of reluctant members through the lobbies and senior MPs, variously, saying they no longer give a fuck or that they are sick to death of their 'talentless' colleagues. All they now have left in common is a desire not to be thrown out of work by the electorate, but a growing number of them must now view that as inevitable and therefore have little left to lose by venting their frustrations, loudly and continuously, in the open.

    The Tories aren't a party anymore. They're a rabble.
    Three Prime Ministers in three years brought down by backbenchers.

    Once might be a problem with the PM as an individual, twice is taking the piss a bit, three strikes you're out.

    The Tories don't deserve to be in office.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,810
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    Bring back May.

    I am presuming you mean you aren't looking forward to the winter and pining after those lovely summer months.....rather than anything to do with the Maybot
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,260
    kle4 said:

    Bring back May.

    Four figure sum for me if she comes in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Braverman is going to try and do a Geoffrey Howe tomorrow, isn’t she?

    She's after the throne. Second place in the MPs vote, then winning by accusing Sunak or whoever of heresy against the true faith in the member ballot. Truss Mk 2. It may well work, if the party doesn't split before things get that far.
    She would likely need 150 Tory MPs nominations first which is unlikely
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592
    edited October 2022
    Remember many families will have sat agonising around the kitchen table in talks in recent days about cost of living, mortgages and energy bills.

    And then they turn on BBC News to see this total fucking shitshow.

    Tories will be mid teens if they are lucky by weekend. Could even be single figures.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    kle4 said:

    Bring back May.

    Like this, you mean?

    https://youtu.be/cg4YrOlAkds
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,331
    Yes, and it's outrageous.

    Had it been aimed at JRM though, fair does.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836
    The Tories have missed a trick - had they stuck to it being a confidence vote, Truss would no longer be a Tory MP and all their worrying about rules and procedure to get rid of her would have been academic….
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,260
    kle4 said:


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    28m
    Q to minister: Is this the end of days? "I think so, it feels like that to me. This is utter madness."
    Q what next? Only way out of this is a coalition deal between Mordaunt & Sunak. It's only a matter to time before she's forced out. This is not sustainable"

    Well it's not hard - Sunak PM, Mordaunt Deputy PM and Foreign Secretary. Hunt Chancellor, and then the least headbangery headbanger for Home Secretary.
    That would be sensible.

    The thing is you'd need to ostracise 40-50 of the most bangy ERG to get a sensible administration together.

    Might mean only 305-310 reliable votes for HMG for the next 2 years. Should just be enough, but close.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    edited October 2022
    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    I can. Just say to them Fuck you.

    See how easy that is? Their only remedy is to go whining to the courts about how their contractual rights have been infringed, which will be true, but the consequence of the court ruling to that effect would be to say that the new PM is not really the PM. Courts is gonna not want to get involved.
    I agree with your sentiments but, as I understand it, the membership vote is enshrined in their constitution and a there can't be a VONC for 12 months. Howe easy those things are to change I don't know. Perhaps someone more au fait with the internal workings of the Tory party can enlighten us.
    The 1922 is controlled by the backbenchers, so if a majority of them want to change the rules, the rules are changed. It was the threat of that, and therefore an early second vote which she was doomed to lose, that persuaded May to promise to resign. Hence the threshold of MPs can be raised.

    It then comes down to the organisation of the various factions to meet that new threshold on their own and (they hope) forestall a membership vote. Pressure could come to bear on the number 2 if they are far behind, or even if they are not.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    kle4 said:

    Bring back May.

    Might well be what happens.
  • Senior Tory MP: "I personally think she has to go TONIGHT. I've never seen anything like that in my life.

    "My understanding is a shedload of letters have gone in today. After tonight, you're going to see absolute chaos. The next 24 hours are going to be hell for Liz."


    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1582818679061823488

    Hmm. My balls not feeling quite so steely after that.

    Still holding it though. Let's see what really happens tomorrow and Friday.
    Speaking of "Balls of Steel", Mark Dolan has his own late night chat show on GB News.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    kle4 said:


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    28m
    Q to minister: Is this the end of days? "I think so, it feels like that to me. This is utter madness."
    Q what next? Only way out of this is a coalition deal between Mordaunt & Sunak. It's only a matter to time before she's forced out. This is not sustainable"

    Well it's not hard - Sunak PM, Mordaunt Deputy PM and Foreign Secretary. Hunt Chancellor, and then the least headbangery headbanger for Home Secretary.
    Shapps will get to keep the precious
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592
    IanB2 said:

    The Tories have missed a trick - had they stuck to it being a confidence vote, Truss would no longer be a Tory MP and all their worrying about rules and procedure to get rid of her would have been academic….

    There's no Whip in office to sack her from the whip though.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,836

    kle4 said:

    Bring back May.

    Four figure sum for me if she comes in.
    You can have it now:

    1+1+1=2
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    kle4 said:


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    28m
    Q to minister: Is this the end of days? "I think so, it feels like that to me. This is utter madness."
    Q what next? Only way out of this is a coalition deal between Mordaunt & Sunak. It's only a matter to time before she's forced out. This is not sustainable"

    Well it's not hard - Sunak PM, Mordaunt Deputy PM and Foreign Secretary. Hunt Chancellor, and then the least headbangery headbanger for Home Secretary.
    Shapps will get to keep the precious
    So the damage Truss has wrought isn't just economic?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,383

    kle4 said:


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    28m
    Q to minister: Is this the end of days? "I think so, it feels like that to me. This is utter madness."
    Q what next? Only way out of this is a coalition deal between Mordaunt & Sunak. It's only a matter to time before she's forced out. This is not sustainable"

    Well it's not hard - Sunak PM, Mordaunt Deputy PM and Foreign Secretary. Hunt Chancellor, and then the least headbangery headbanger for Home Secretary.
    That would be sensible.

    The thing is you'd need to ostracise 40-50 of the most bangy ERG to get a sensible administration together.

    Might mean only 305-310 reliable votes for HMG for the next 2 years. Should just be enough, but close.
    They could of course go into coalition.
    For a total Cameroon revival. Austerity and all.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,920
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I’d cash out of your exit date bet, if I were you?
    I would have thought the Braverman resignation, especially if due partially to Immigration policy, would make it almost impossible for a Tory coronation.
    If the threshold is 150 MPs to be nominated a coronation still very possible
    Why not make the threshold 357 MPs so that there is no doubt?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    You have not the first bloody idea how terminal this is, mate. I am an inherited land, inherited money, fox-hunting drunk. You have lost me, you have lost a good 50% of the people I know, and certainly in my case this is well beyond any "until normal service is resumed" sort of clause. It is over. for your lifetime.
    No, you are an uncouth oik about as Tory as John Prescott.

    Even if as likely Labour wins the next general election if the economy fails to recover the pendulum will swiftly swing back

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,331
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    Bring back May.

    What, and re-live the last five months? No thanks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295

    Yes, and it's outrageous.

    Had it been aimed at JRM though, fair does.
    Now come on, that's not true.

    It would be hideously unfair, inappropriate and a grotesque insult.

    Just not to Rees-Mogg.
  • "That's how your cat feels" sung by the Kop as Kurt Zouma receives treatment.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,944

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.



    Is covid much of a factor now? It seems to have become a background issue compared to the price shock and the rank incompetence of the government

    Covid is still being felt in supply chains, especially with China's zero covid policy

    I am also waiting for enough data to prove my theory that the WFH revolution is massively beneficial to the skilled, educated class who can be trusted to work from home efficiently and effectively, but massively detrimental to the wider economy because most people are neither skilled, nor able to be trusted to work from home effectively. My thesis is that the WFH boom massively benefits the managerial class who are inherently hard working and dedicated, but leads to far lower productivity amongst lower skilled workers who need more direct management.
    I am not even sure its true for those people. They often rely on their team to provide support, data, reports, etc. If all that is taking longer to complete it can only negatively effect their productivity.

    I was talking to some academics at a leading UK university the other day (a category you would think should be self-motivate and not be too negatively affected by moving more to WFH) and they were bemoaning just how the systems and processes have broken down such that they are wasting loads of extra time trying to chase up stuff that should be done, that admin staff are spending 4 out of 5 days WFH so things like printers and stationary aren't getting sorted.
    OK, here’s a theory. WFH makes everyone more productive as they can focus on what they’re meant to do… except there’s lots of boring crap that someone has to do, and that stuff got done because people were around, but WFHers can avoid those jobs and it doesn’t get done.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,260
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
    In order to drag this ludicrous pantomime out until January 2025, your MPs have first to pass a budget, and then either to rally behind Truss or manage to pick a viable successor without the entire Party imploding in an orgy of internecine warfare and eye gouging. Neither of these things is a given.
    They have a majority of 80, they certainly can
    Who is "they" though? The Parliamentary Conservative Party is no longer a single coherent entity. We have had frogmarching of reluctant members through the lobbies and senior MPs, variously, saying they no longer give a fuck or that they are sick to death of their 'talentless' colleagues. All they now have left in common is a desire not to be thrown out of work by the electorate, but a growing number of them must now view that as inevitable and therefore have little left to lose by venting their frustrations, loudly and continuously, in the open.

    The Tories aren't a party anymore. They're a rabble.
    Fighting themselves like ferrets in a sack is what they love the most.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,073
    What do the punters here think the chances are of an election within the next 3-6 months.
  • NeilVW said:

    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    I can. Just say to them Fuck you.

    See how easy that is? Their only remedy is to go whining to the courts about how their contractual rights have been infringed, which will be true, but the consequence of the court ruling to that effect would be to say that the new PM is not really the PM. Courts is gonna not want to get involved.
    I agree with your sentiments but, as I understand it, the membership vote is enshrined in their constitution and a there can't be a VONC for 12 months. Howe easy those things are to change I don't know. Perhaps someone more au fait with the internal workings of the Tory party can enlighten us.
    The 1922 is controlled by the backbenchers, so if a majority of them want to change the rules, the rules are changed. It was the threat of that, and therefore an early second vote which she was doomed to lose, that persuaded May to promise to resign. Hence the threshold of MPs can be raised.

    It then comes down to the organisation of the various factions to meet that new threshold and (they hope) forestall a membership vote. Pressure could come to bear on the number 2 if they are far behind, or even if they are not.
    The rules of the Conservative Party in relation to their fan club are irrelevant. It's a fundamental duty of MPs to make and break governments and any implied 'contract' in a 'party constitution' that purports to limit that duty isn't worth the paper it's written on. Tory members may have been sold a pup, but if it barks like a pup...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:


    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    28m
    Q to minister: Is this the end of days? "I think so, it feels like that to me. This is utter madness."
    Q what next? Only way out of this is a coalition deal between Mordaunt & Sunak. It's only a matter to time before she's forced out. This is not sustainable"

    Well it's not hard - Sunak PM, Mordaunt Deputy PM and Foreign Secretary. Hunt Chancellor, and then the least headbangery headbanger for Home Secretary.
    Shapps will get to keep the precious
    So the damage Truss has wrought isn't just economic?
    Shapps is Sunaks boy, so he'll stay in a Penny Rishi carve up
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592
    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Braverman is going to try and do a Geoffrey Howe tomorrow, isn’t she?

    She's after the throne. Second place in the MPs vote, then winning by accusing Sunak or whoever of heresy against the true faith in the member ballot. Truss Mk 2. It may well work, if the party doesn't split before things get that far.
    She's certainly aiming for that.

    Only a total ship of fools would allow a members vote for next leader.

    Oh wait...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,810
    edited October 2022

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.



    Is covid much of a factor now? It seems to have become a background issue compared to the price shock and the rank incompetence of the government

    Covid is still being felt in supply chains, especially with China's zero covid policy

    I am also waiting for enough data to prove my theory that the WFH revolution is massively beneficial to the skilled, educated class who can be trusted to work from home efficiently and effectively, but massively detrimental to the wider economy because most people are neither skilled, nor able to be trusted to work from home effectively. My thesis is that the WFH boom massively benefits the managerial class who are inherently hard working and dedicated, but leads to far lower productivity amongst lower skilled workers who need more direct management.
    I am not even sure its true for those people. They often rely on their team to provide support, data, reports, etc. If all that is taking longer to complete it can only negatively effect their productivity.

    I was talking to some academics at a leading UK university the other day (a category you would think should be self-motivate and not be too negatively affected by moving more to WFH) and they were bemoaning just how the systems and processes have broken down such that they are wasting loads of extra time trying to chase up stuff that should be done, that admin staff are spending 4 out of 5 days WFH so things like printers and stationary aren't getting sorted.
    OK, here’s a theory. WFH makes everyone more productive as they can focus on what they’re meant to do… except there’s lots of boring crap that someone has to do, and that stuff got done because people were around, but WFHers can avoid those jobs and it doesn’t get done.
    I am not sure the first part is true, but I am sure the later is definitely true. Everybody has shitty parts of their job, tasks that are an absolute ball ache and given half a chance there is always something much more interesting to do. And the problem is you start forming a habit of shuffling those off into the "to do later" list and before you know it they are always still there at the bottom of that list. And of course if you know everybody else is doing the same there isn't even any peer pressure / guilt associated with doing it.

    I try to take the approach of getting the shit done first every day, then my day can only get better as I actually then spend time on the interesting stuff.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    Cicero said:

    What do the punters here think the chances are of an election within the next 3-6 months.

    Slim, because turkeys don't vote to be deprived of 64k plus pension and expenses Christmas
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,715
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    You have not the first bloody idea how terminal this is, mate. I am an inherited land, inherited money, fox-hunting drunk. You have lost me, you have lost a good 50% of the people I know, and certainly in my case this is well beyond any "until normal service is resumed" sort of clause. It is over. for your lifetime.
    No, you are an uncouth oik about as Tory as John Prescott.

    Even if as likely Labour wins the next general election if the economy fails to recover the pendulum will swiftly swing back

    How do you know Ishmael didn't go to somewhere posh like Eton?

    IIRC he went to Oxford anyway which should certainly qualify him in your eyes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592
    Kitty Donaldson
    @kitty_donaldson
    Prime Minister Liz Truss grabbed Wendy Morton’s arm to try to persuade her not to resign but Morton left the lobby trailing the Prime Minister behind her. In the chaos, the premier did not vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    You have not the first bloody idea how terminal this is, mate. I am an inherited land, inherited money, fox-hunting drunk. You have lost me, you have lost a good 50% of the people I know, and certainly in my case this is well beyond any "until normal service is resumed" sort of clause. It is over. for your lifetime.
    No, you are an uncouth oik about as Tory as John Prescott.

    Even if as likely Labour wins the next general election if the economy fails to recover the pendulum will swiftly swing back

    How do you know Ishmael didn't go to somewhere posh like Eton?

    IIRC he went to Oxford anyway which should certainly qualify him in your eyes.
    And he read Classics.
  • DAY 44 - UK HELD HOSTAGE
  • HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
    In order to drag this ludicrous pantomime out until January 2025, your MPs have first to pass a budget, and then either to rally behind Truss or manage to pick a viable successor without the entire Party imploding in an orgy of internecine warfare and eye gouging. Neither of these things is a given.
    They have a majority of 80, they certainly can
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
    In order to drag this ludicrous pantomime out until January 2025, your MPs have first to pass a budget, and then either to rally behind Truss or manage to pick a viable successor without the entire Party imploding in an orgy of internecine warfare and eye gouging. Neither of these things is a given.
    They have a majority of 80, they certainly can
    Majority is now 72 following byelection defeats plus a defection.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    You have not the first bloody idea how terminal this is, mate. I am an inherited land, inherited money, fox-hunting drunk. You have lost me, you have lost a good 50% of the people I know, and certainly in my case this is well beyond any "until normal service is resumed" sort of clause. It is over. for your lifetime.
    No, you are an uncouth oik about as Tory as John Prescott.

    Even if as likely Labour wins the next general election if the economy fails to recover the pendulum will swiftly swing back

    Swiftly is a big assumption - as I believe you've noted before, after 12 years in office being out for some time is not unusual.

    Also, 'oik'? IshmaelZ is no oik, he's a bounder, I'm sure.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,920
    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a quarter to a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    I agree that a quarter to a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre and that most are decent people. It’s the extreme 5% that have taken over your party that are damaging the country. I also believe that you are a decent person, but why do you continue to defend the indefensible?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    HYUFD said:


    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a quarter to a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people

    I would certainly agree a centre-right party will always exist. Nature abhors a vacuum and any attempt by Labour to become a "big tent" party will collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.

    Whether that centre-right party will always be called "Conservative" is perhaps open to question and which of the conservative values it will emphasise I'm far from certain. It could be classically economically liberal and socially conservative for example.

    I'm also quite certain it would, as you say, be able to count on a minimum of a quarter to a third of the electorate who are conservative by tradition or conviction. Conservatism is a broad church as I'm sure you would accept and within the basic tenets the emphasis will vary from individual to individual.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I’d cash out of your exit date bet, if I were you?
    I would have thought the Braverman resignation, especially if due partially to Immigration policy, would make it almost impossible for a Tory coronation.
    If the threshold is 150 MPs to be nominated a coronation still very possible
    Why not make the threshold 357 MPs so that there is no doubt?
    They'd never reach it.
  • This is me, and Liverpool are playing tonight


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,715
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    You have not the first bloody idea how terminal this is, mate. I am an inherited land, inherited money, fox-hunting drunk. You have lost me, you have lost a good 50% of the people I know, and certainly in my case this is well beyond any "until normal service is resumed" sort of clause. It is over. for your lifetime.
    No, you are an uncouth oik about as Tory as John Prescott.

    Even if as likely Labour wins the next general election if the economy fails to recover the pendulum will swiftly swing back

    How do you know Ishmael didn't go to somewhere posh like Eton?

    IIRC he went to Oxford anyway which should certainly qualify him in your eyes.
    And he read Classics.
    Certe, verbum sapienti satis est.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    kle4 said:

    Bring back May.

    Might well be what happens.
    It needs to happen and fast. This government is imploding and is bringing shame on us all. Forget next General Election considerations. Stop the rot now!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    DougSeal said:

    I’m an employment lawyer. If everyone who dropped the c-bomb on someone after putting the phone down was fired then I can assure you there would be roughly three people left in employment in the United Kingdom. One of them would be Jacob Rees-Mogg. TBF he would have been on the other end of many of the calls.

    If its on tape and heard then they are liable to be fired.
    If its not on tape not so much.
    Because customers can request the recording, reputational risk is at stake
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    You have not the first bloody idea how terminal this is, mate. I am an inherited land, inherited money, fox-hunting drunk. You have lost me, you have lost a good 50% of the people I know, and certainly in my case this is well beyond any "until normal service is resumed" sort of clause. It is over. for your lifetime.
    No, you are an uncouth oik about as Tory as John Prescott.

    Even if as likely Labour wins the next general election if the economy fails to recover the pendulum will swiftly swing back

    But that is exactly my point. I am a complete and utter Steve Baker by any reasonable standards, but you are out there batting for me and people like me, morning noon and night, because of the politics of the early 1800s. why?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,953
    If you’re wondering who’s running the Conservative Party, MPs are too: they’re convinced Therese Coffey has also tried to quit this evening.

    But her spokesman says: “It is not true that the DPM has offered her resignation.”

    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1582827372046581760
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    If the Boris/Truss gang are right that this really is just because Sunak orchestrated things because he lost, then frankly he's so capable he deserves the gig.

    He may have overdone it though.
  • pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Truss stays until the Tory party can agree on a successor for a coronation or there's a full blown leadership contest.

    It's possible the MPs then largely (e.g. 75%+) back one candidate and put supreme pressure on the runner up to withdraw to skip the members round.

    Think Theresa May/Andrea Leadsom in 2016.

    I agree. The Tories are paralysed. They daren't risk a leadership contest until they can be certain the barking-mad membership can be by-passed. I don't see an easy path to achieving that.
    The 'barking mad' Tory membership now backs Sunak over Truss 64% to 36%
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1582665358489669636?s=20&t=AISbZZ2GlkFDylf84Ec2Sw
    It's immaterial. Quite how waiting for the Conservative Party to fuck about for the rest of the year whilst it whittles down a list of candidates to two and then sends them off to the members for a lengthy series of debates is in any slight degree in the national interest is quite beyond me. And there's still no guarantee that they won't be seduced by another nut.

    To paraphrase, this Government has been sat too long here for any good they have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with them. In the name of God, go!
    Tough, we Tories got 3 years of Gordon Brown imposed on us despite him never winning a general election and you will wait your turn until the next election too!
    In order to drag this ludicrous pantomime out until January 2025, your MPs have first to pass a budget, and then either to rally behind Truss or manage to pick a viable successor without the entire Party imploding in an orgy of internecine warfare and eye gouging. Neither of these things is a given.
    They have a majority of 80, they certainly can
    Who is "they" though? The Parliamentary Conservative Party is no longer a single coherent entity. We have had frogmarching of reluctant members through the lobbies and senior MPs, variously, saying they no longer give a fuck or that they are sick to death of their 'talentless' colleagues. All they now have left in common is a desire not to be thrown out of work by the electorate, but a growing number of them must now view that as inevitable and therefore have little left to lose by venting their frustrations, loudly and continuously, in the open.

    The Tories aren't a party anymore. They're a rabble.
    That's grossly unfair. To rabble.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649

    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a quarter to a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    I agree that a quarter to a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre and that most are decent people. It’s the extreme 5% that have taken over your party that are damaging the country. I also believe that you are a decent person, but why do you continue to defend the indefensible?
    I didn't vote for Truss but even now the Tories are still getting about 20 to 25% of the vote, that is rather more than an ultra extreme mere 5% of the population
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,260
    Cicero said:

    What do the punters here think the chances are of an election within the next 3-6 months.

    About as likely as Major or Redwood calling one in 1995.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    I’m an employment lawyer. If everyone who dropped the c-bomb on someone after putting the phone down was fired then I can assure you there would be roughly three people left in employment in the United Kingdom. One of them would be Jacob Rees-Mogg. TBF he would have been on the other end of many of the calls.

    If its on tape and heard then they are liable to be fired.
    If its not on tape not so much.
    Because customers can request the recording, reputational risk is at
    stake
    Nah

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,295
    DougSeal said:

    I’m an employment lawyer. If everyone who dropped the c-bomb on someone after putting the phone down was fired then I can assure you there would be roughly three people left in employment in the United Kingdom. One of them would be Jacob Rees-Mogg. TBF he would have been on the other end of many of the calls.

    A call centre employee once called me a motherfucker.

    I was annoyed at being cold called illegally and had threatened to have him arrested.

    He said I couldn't do that and lots of other things besides.

    I then told him what address he was calling from and he hung up incredibly quickly.

    Never did have him arrested but I got his line manager sacked over something else.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,592
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    4h
    Surely it's time to give Labour a go? This nonsense can't carry on.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    You have not the first bloody idea how terminal this is, mate. I am an inherited land, inherited money, fox-hunting drunk. You have lost me, you have lost a good 50% of the people I know, and certainly in my case this is well beyond any "until normal service is resumed" sort of clause. It is over. for your lifetime.
    No, you are an uncouth oik about as Tory as John Prescott.

    Even if as likely Labour wins the next general election if the economy fails to recover the pendulum will swiftly swing back

    How do you know Ishmael didn't go to somewhere posh like Eton?

    IIRC he went to Oxford anyway which should certainly qualify him in your eyes.
    I went to an older and more distinguished school than Eton.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,649
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    I thought that Hunt would bring a period of calm, but the government is still completely wracked with crisis. Is there any person who can bring any stability to this situation as PM?

    Feels a bit like it's too far gone for that now. There's too much division and bad feeling. There needs to be an election.

    No, there shouldn’t be an election until at least late 2024. It is in the long term interest of the country and it’s people that the Tories utterly destroy themselves to the extent the party no longer exists. The traditional one nation Conservatives can form a new party or join the Lib Dems. The HYUFD, Braverman, Francois wing can join Farage in a British Union Of Trumpists and see themselves politically annihilated by ordinary decent people.
    The party will always exist, certainly under FPTP.

    About a third of the UK population are also ideologically right of centre despite your sanctimonious, patronising high horse comment that that automatically makes them not decent people
    You have not the first bloody idea how terminal this is, mate. I am an inherited land, inherited money, fox-hunting drunk. You have lost me, you have lost a good 50% of the people I know, and certainly in my case this is well beyond any "until normal service is resumed" sort of clause. It is over. for your lifetime.
    No, you are an uncouth oik about as Tory as John Prescott.

    Even if as likely Labour wins the next general election if the economy fails to recover the pendulum will swiftly swing back

    Swiftly is a big assumption - as I believe you've noted before, after 12 years in office being out for some time is not unusual.

    Also, 'oik'? IshmaelZ is no oik, he's a bounder, I'm sure.
    If you manage the economy well as New Labour largely did and the Tories did until the current Truss Kwarteng disaster. In the 1960s and 1970s however we regularly changed government every 4, 5 or 6 years
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,920

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Ch4 News. We are facing disaster which is now unavoidable. It is self inflicted and caused by Brexit. So says Nouriel Roubini.

    Utterly ridiculous. The entire world is facing disaster and it’s fuck all to do with Brexit
    Bit like this tho, innit

    Literally - the world has moved on, and the problems the UK is facing are due to the world economy, Covid, and the Ukraine situation. The Brexit thing is minuscule in comparison.

    I sometimes yearn for a nuclear war just to see how people manage to blame it on Brexit.

    I'm sure people will still be arguing we'd have better access to nutritious rats and preferential access to the EU's tinned bean mountain if only we were still part of the common market.



    Is covid much of a factor now? It seems to have become a background issue compared to the price shock and the rank incompetence of the government

    Covid is still being felt in supply chains, especially with China's zero covid policy

    I am also waiting for enough data to prove my theory that the WFH revolution is massively beneficial to the skilled, educated class who can be trusted to work from home efficiently and effectively, but massively detrimental to the wider economy because most people are neither skilled, nor able to be trusted to work from home effectively. My thesis is that the WFH boom massively benefits the managerial class who are inherently hard working and dedicated, but leads to far lower productivity amongst lower skilled workers who need more direct management.
    I am not even sure its true for those people. They often rely on their team to provide support, data, reports, etc. If all that is taking longer to complete it can only negatively effect their productivity.

    I was talking to some academics at a leading UK university the other day (a category you would think should be self-motivate and not be too negatively affected by moving more to WFH) and they were bemoaning just how the systems and processes have broken down such that they are wasting loads of extra time trying to chase up stuff that should be done, that admin staff are spending 4 out of 5 days WFH so things like printers and stationary aren't getting sorted.
    OK, here’s a theory. WFH makes everyone more productive as they can focus on what they’re meant to do… except there’s lots of boring crap that someone has to do, and that stuff got done because people were around, but WFHers can avoid those jobs and it doesn’t get done.
    Jobs like sorting out @Leon’s tax affairs.
This discussion has been closed.