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Rishi back as betting favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752
    edited October 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting, I’ve not seen anything like that before either.

    So the enemy is using up missiles nearly as fast as they’re using up tanks, and the vast majority of them aren’t hitting their intended targets - either taken out by air defences, or not being accurate enough to go where they’re told.
    Confusing?

    The tweet you linked interprets that as '33% have been used'.

    I'd say the Ukraine MOD, where he got the graph from, suggest the opposite - 33% remaining unused.


  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212

    Will be fascinating to see Truss eloquently communicate the reasons for keeping her in place

    “My energy price guarantee.”

    Pauses.

    Sits down.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I'm not convinced on that one. The Energy Price guarantee is not really that much out of line with packages being introduced in countries across Europe. Compare, say, to the package in Germany.

    It was first afaics, but others are pretty much in line.
    In my analysis the German one dies 4 days 17 hours before ours, the market hates that one too.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137

    Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
    If we somehow managed a GE this year then we could have Twelve Tory MPs...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    I was the Nostradamus who said despite losing the Tory majority in 2017 May would continue on for a good few years. I'm back on now to say Truss is complete toast with immediate effect. Her position is utterly untenable and she has to walk before she is surely pushed within days.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254

    In this Tory party?? I think you're asking for the moon my friend!
    I'm just spitballing this blue-sky thinking to see if something sticks.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    An interesting point from Paul Waugh:

    Paul Waugh @paulwaugh

    Given that the OBR are going to have to give a fresh assessment of any 'new' (U-turned) fiscal plans, the next Budget/statement will have to be delayed beyond Halloween? Won't it?

    They did the last one in about 10 mins on a back of a fag packet and expected to get away with it. Has anything changed?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    Why wait till next week?
    Yes, do it NOW whilst they have the balls. I'll design their logo.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686

    Yes.
    Should settle the markets.

    To zero.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Scott_xP said:

    Kwarteng gone. Story now moves on to how long can Truss survive.

    Senior Tory MP: "Things are just too bad now. She has to go."

    Another adds: "She can't do all these U-turns, sack her chancellor and expect to survive."

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/kwasi-kwarteng-sacked-liz-truss-prepares-mini-budget-u-turn_uk_63492a6de4b051268c48673e

    Hold on didn't they want the u-turns 5 minutes ago ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304

    I have 5000 reasons its too late for Rishi to become PM ... 😡

    If he replaces her this year it'll be the politics equivalent of getting it in the stewards room after the race - so I'd argue for a payout if I were you. Take it all the way to the SC if necessary. Crowdfund your fees and I'll chip a fiver in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,292

    Right-wing populist movements always seem to end up captured by libertarian, protect-the-rich interests.
    But they need the former to win elections still.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Not just on usage, but on stocks.

    Where do the figures come from? Russians are busy complaining about equipment that has been bought and paid for but doesn't exist.
    I expect that, as with everything else in the Russian military arsenal, there’s quite the difference between what’s theoretically in stock, and what’s actually available and serviceable. The more complex missiles need a fair bit of maintainence, and the procurement process is legendary for not delivering as many of anything as have been actuallty ordered.

    Nice dacha in Sochi for the procurement officer though. Hope he avoids those high windows.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,267
    Hunt 1.1 now. Is it done?
  • Fun fact.

    There was a Chancellor of the Exchequer called Julius Caesar.

    Actually, it's not that fun a fact, but it's all you deserve and all you're getting.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    HYUFD said:

    But they need the former to win elections still.

    Cameron won with a more traditional centre-right agenda. I don’t think populism is needed to win.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212
    Pulpstar said:

    Hold on didn't they want the u-turns 5 minutes ago ?
    There's a note of panic now isn't there? They really don't want to let her steady the ship.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    My wife goes back to America every three or four months to visit her parents for a couple of week. Last time she was there was in July and Johnson resigned before she got back. She landed in Boston again yesterday...
  • Hunt matched 1.1 now
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
    Could be three if KCIII doesn't learn to shut his trap.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,856
    Sandpit said:

    Ministers always resign. I think it’s some sort of convention, because strictly speaking they serve the Monarch rather than the PM.
    No, they can be sacked. Williamson was, for example, in a letter instructing him to surrender his seal of office. But usually they resign.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    Betting says it's Hunt.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,923

    I'm not doing a lot next week either.
    Only need you for Monday I think.
    Four other volunteers for the rest of the week though please......
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    List of postwar Chancellors of the Exchequer by length of service


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    You are going to have to be a tad desperate to take the job today. Hunt?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    BBC says Hunt is new CoTE
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Hunt matched 1.1 now

    If Hunt is that low somebody knows something.

    Darn.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    ydoethur said:

    No, they can be sacked. Williamson was, for example, in a letter instructing him to surrender his seal of office. But usually they resign.
    Effectively that's being instructed to resign. But we're in Angels on Heads of Pins territory here.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    MattW said:

    Confusing?

    The tweet you linked interprets that as '33% have been used'.

    I'd say the Ukraine MOD, where he got the graph from, suggest the opposite - 33% remaining unused.


    Yes, I'm a bit confused now too. I think you're right that it's one-third left, rather than one-third used.

    They've also said that they think Russia has 300 Iranian drones left, so they can't keep up an intense period of bombardment with these missiles for that long.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Hunt's not a bad choice. He could serve under Sunak.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    kinabalu said:

    Betting says it's Hunt.

    BBC says its him
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    Is Kwasi the shortest reigned chancellor in history?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    3m
    Hearing that the clear out at the Treasury is not limited to Kwasi Kwarteng - other ministers likely to go too
  • If Hunt is that low somebody knows something.

    Darn.
    Probably. But could be that he is first choice. Might not have accepted yet in which case a lay.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Jonathan said:

    Hunt's not a bad choice. He could serve under Sunak.

    Just bet on Hunt for next leader at 60.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,856
    GIN1138 said:

    Is Kwasi the shortest reigned chancellor in history?

    No. Second by eight days.

    But he is the shortest serving chancellor who didn't die in office.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited October 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    Is Kwasi the shortest reigned chancellor in history?

    Second shortest. Macleod heart attack in 1970.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212
    So Hunt is basically PM now.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    3m
    Hearing that the clear out at the Treasury is not limited to Kwasi Kwarteng - other ministers likely to go too

    Off with their heads!!!

    All must be sacrificed to save the Queen!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692

    BBC says Hunt is new CoTE

    And... ERG will start sending their letters into the 1922 in 5...4...3...2...1...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915

    So Hunt is basically PM now.

    I hope not.
  • Closed out most of my 2022 exit date at 2.4 just now. Think Hunt would buy her a couple of months goodwill.
  • Surely the best thing to come from this debacle is the fall of commentators such as guido, Cole etc
    In order for their reputation to fall they would have had to have some kind of decent reputation to begin with.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    ydoethur said:

    No. Second by eight days.

    But he is the shortest serving chancellor who didn't die in office.
    Well that's an achievement I guess lol!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    GIN1138 said:

    And... ERG will start sending their letters into the 1922 in 5...4...3...2...1...
    Indeed. How many friends does Truss have?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497

    By the sounds of it, rather expensively educated protestors (and Heinz soup, not own label in the "cost of living crisis"?)

    “What is worth more, art or life? … are you more concerned about the protection of a painting or the protection of our planet and people?”

    @JustStop_Oil’s activists explain their action


    https://twitter.com/damiengayle/status/1580865060347383808?s=20&t=MkaXBQY-DL9hkbdQ5rgJfA

    Is it even more bizarre that oil in oil paint is linseed and not petrochemical?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Truss will now to try and spin this as uniting the party and bringing the different wings together.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited October 2022

    Apologies if I have missed it, but what's your alternative to the latter?
    A sliding Price Cap.

    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A-Variable-Energy-Price-Cap.pdf

    Cheaper, better targeted on the needy, virtually pays for itself.

    It will replace the energy price guarantee next spring, I can assure you 100%, but It’s very sad for UK the government has to lose a hugely expensive and damaging war with the markets first, before we can introduce a much better policy. PB and the Media currently claiming it’s only the mini budget alone that is the problem shares much responsibilty for Politics being just insane sometimes. 🙁
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Jonathan said:

    You are going to have to be a tad desperate to take the job today. Hunt?

    I guess it is his only chance at a political resurrection.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692

    Indeed. How many friends does Truss have?
    Well given she didn't have many to start off with I'm guessing it's somewhere in region of 0 and 0?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686

    Closed out most of my 2022 exit date at 2.4 just now. Think Hunt would buy her a couple of months goodwill.

    Good call. I am now all green on this one.

    What larks!!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244
    Scott_xP said:

    A group of senior Tories have been holding discussions + have decided the following: the sacking of @KwasiKwarteng will prompt them to come out publicly next week + call on @trussliz to resign. My source: “These are serious people. The PM will find it difficult to survive.”

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1580887374292455424

    My source tells me Liz Truss has made a mistake if she thinks her (outgoing) friend @KwasiKwarteng has no base in the parliamentary party. “People like Kwasi. He is friendly. He’s honest. Maybe a bit too honest. Maybe that’s his problem.”
    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1580888490841022465

    Forget about the 'serious people' description.
    Who are Kwarteng's "base" ?
  • Tory MPs should show Liz Truss the same loyalty she has shown Kwasi Kwarteng.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    I hope not.
    Well Truss had no authority now so he’s basically going to be seen as the one in charge. Probably a decent bet as unity candidate for PM now too if she goes in next few days.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    HMG has turned into the Watford FC of national governments and I anticipate that Truss shall appoint Sam Allardice as CoE until the end of the season.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    Closed out most of my 2022 exit date at 2.4 just now. Think Hunt would buy her a couple of months goodwill.

    Will it ?
    I'm not entirely sure this buys another week.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Just bet on Hunt for next leader at 60.
    Already on that
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    darkage said:

    I guess it is his only chance at a political resurrection.
    Plus presumably would be as unsackable as it is possible to be.

    He could stand on his head and raise UC by £100 a week and she still couldn't get rid of him now.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    edited October 2022
    All this focus on how terrible Kwarteng and Truss are is distracting form how terrible Coffey is:

    Nurses can leave ‘if they want to’ – they have already had a pay rise, says Thérèse Coffey
    https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/nurses-can-leave-if-they-want-to-they-have-already-had-a-pay-rise-says-therese-coffey/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    Just backed Hunt to be next Con leader on Ladbrokes at 46 and laid him at 15 on Betfair. So flat if it's not him, green if it is, with scope to lay more if his odds decline sharply.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Nigelb said:

    Will it ?
    I'm not entirely sure this buys another week.
    Nah, that'd have been the scenario if Simon Clarke was appointed. She's essentially outsourced the economic program to the losing wing of the party here. But it keeps her in place as PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Hunt is a very sensible choice
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686

    Already on that
    Profile raised as sensible, sane CoE who turns around the markets a bit.

    Looking good...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915

    Nicholas Watt
    @nicholaswatt
    ·
    6m
    A group of senior Tories have been holding discussions + have decided the following: the sacking of
    @KwasiKwarteng
    will prompt them to come out publicly next week + call on
    @trussliz
    to resign. My source: “These are serious people. The PM will find it difficult to survive.”

    The usual suspects.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Hunt down to 10 for next leader.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692

    Tory MPs should show Liz Truss the same loyalty she has shown Kwasi Kwarteng.

    I think they will very soon.

    Ultimately Sunak as PM, Hunt as CotE some sort of rationality restored to government... might just keep Labour to a small overall majority at the next election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Scott_xP said:
    Blimey. So it was a sacking (First sentence)
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449


    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    42m
    2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?

    Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol

    Could be three if KCIII doesn't learn to shut his trap.
    Dear oh dear, not a fan?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    Pulpstar said:

    Blimey. So it was a sacking (First sentence)
    Kwasi shows dignity in his letter to Liz
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,163
    Scott_xP said:
    LoFi Liz.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Pulpstar said:

    Nah, that'd have been the scenario if Simon Clarke was appointed. She's essentially outsourced the economic program to the losing wing of the party here. But it keeps her in place as PM.
    Well today is the day she ceased being PM in terms of power.

    Can Hunt steady the ship, and what will the 'loonies' think of it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,856
    Pulpstar said:

    Blimey. So it was a sacking (First sentence)
    Selwyn Lloyd was frostier.

    'Dear Prime Minister, you have asked me to resign as Chancellor and this I most willingly do. Yours sincerely, Selwyn Lloyd.'
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    Chief Secretary to the Treasury Chris Philip is also on his way out, @politicshome understands
    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580893574711107584
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580893574711107584

    Chief Secretary to the Treasury Chris Philip is also on his way out,
    @politicshome
    understands

    Friday of the long knives it seems.

    Liz likes giving out the pain as well as taking it.
  • Nigelb said:

    Will it ?
    I'm not entirely sure this buys another week.
    She is 14/1 to be leader at the next election which is getting silly as well.

    Quite happy with the pair of backing 7 the last couple of weeks and laying 2.4 post Hunt. I think Hunt improves her ability to last the year, but still expect her to either go or a GE in 2023.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,317
    Just for the laughs I'm going for JRM or John Redwood.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686

    Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol Dear oh dear, not a fan?
    This week's audience will be at the three "oh dears" level I think.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    edited October 2022

    Hunt is a very sensible choice

    Agree. As another ex-Remainer in govt, unlike Truss he never embraced the Brexit madness and will likely build economic bridges with the EU.

    What price FoM before too long.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,393


    Ouch.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    edited October 2022
    "Who was the shortest serving post-war chancellor, not to die in office"
    BZZZZTTT
    "Kwarteng, Cambridge"
    "Correct"

    https://twitter.com/MrJonDePlume/status/1580880605817950209/photo/1


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Hunt at 1.06/1.07
    Now 1.08/1.13
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    carnforth said:



    Ouch.

    Where the ouch?

    Don’t just be rude about Kwarteng and Truss - 99% posts today seem to be pointlessly stating she has mental illness.

    a party must have a soul. Sure Starmer is riding high in polls and can even win without policy’s, or an ethos from which to fashion policys - but what would be the point? What is the point of a political party if it doesn’t have an ethos? Just keep the others out and ride the buckaroo-dandy as long as possible? What about a party’s distinct policy agenda tackling the problems facing the nation?

    The Tory’s just have to go back to the Halcyon summer of eighties economic liberalism for their ethos now, and relate it to the problems facing this country - as I understand it, this is Trussism.

    Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be
    our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges,
    Levelling up is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions can ever be levelled, therefore not an honest policy platform.
    If the Conservative Party can now never remove the top rate of tax Gordon Brown only sneaked in in 2010 as a “sly gift” knowing it’s his last ever budget, then what sort of economics does the Conservative Party stand for?

    If it’s not the economic liberalism of Lady Thatcher’s 1980s UK transforming triumphs, as Team Truss now advocate, then what is the Tory ethos to be? They are currently not governing well, and can not do so until they have sorted the question of what is their ethos out.

    Explain how Trussism wrong is what you should really do with your posting time - I’m one nation in my politics, I can articulately explain how Trussism wrong. But it’s still a clear ethos and policy platform, based on economic liberalism and Thatcherism, it is very much the soul of the Conservative Party membership today, if not half it’s MPs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    This week's audience will be at the three "oh dears" level I think.
    "Oh, FFS", possibly ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    The line, I'd have thought, is that I remain a tax-cutter but accept the need to do so more gradually in a manner that retains the confidence of the markets. The mini-budget damaged confidence, and we need a reset whilst continuing to work towards the tax cutting agenda. The Chancellor has concluded that the reset requires him to step aside, and I've reluctantly accepted that. X, who shares my aim to reduce taxes and unleash growth, but who of course supported by opponent in the recent leadership election, has agreed to take on the job and we look forward to working together against the Anti Growth Coalition etc etc.

    Yes, it's a humiliation and she's accepting someone moving in next door specifically to take over economic policy, in order to save her own job.

    But she's not the only PM who, in a weak position, has been forced to change policies and personnel to mollify the party.
    The party ain't mollified....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
    kinabalu said:

    Betting says it's Hunt.

    Maybe she'll go for Redwood.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,163
    TOPPING said:

    Agree. As another ex-Remainer in govt, unlike Truss he never embraced the Brexit madness and will likely build economic bridges with the EU.

    What price FoM before too long.
    Have you forgotten his stint as Foreign Secretary when he compared the EU to the USSR?
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 723
    edited October 2022

    I was the Nostradamus who said despite losing the Tory majority in 2017 May would continue on for a good few years. I'm back on now to say Truss is complete toast with immediate effect. Her position is utterly untenable and she has to walk before she is surely pushed within days.

    Who was the first on this board to predict:
    a) Truss would be PM
    and
    b) she would be a disaster.?

    Displaying Leon-levels of modesty - ahem- I think I am one of the first, if not the actual first. I said it would be her when the general opinion was that it would be Penny or Rishi. I also said she would be dreadful.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Scott_xP said:
    "Your success is this country's success and I wish you well."

    So we're fucked then.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    Liz Truss confidence vote market 'halted' on Smarkets. Maybe just odd betting activity caused suspension? No obvious reason to pull it otherwise.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212
    So is it Hunt or is it not Hunt? There doesn’t seem to be any confirmation yet?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,089
    The problem for Truss - and for the country - is that she no longer has a mandate on ANY basis. The country saw a different manifesto in 2019, Tory MPs wanted another leader, and the party membership voted for a prospectus now in the bin.

    From where can she claim legitimacy? ~AA


    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1580894934030520324
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,244

    The party ain't mollified....
    And the support of those who were onside is now perhaps questionable ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Pulpstar said:

    Blimey. So it was a sacking (First sentence)
    Deal is: he can punish and dominate her next time they're in the bedroom together.

    He's probably looking forward to that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Pagan2 said:

    Is it even more bizarre that oil in oil paint is linseed and not petrochemical?
    I wrote expensively educated, not well educated!
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    mickydroy said:

    Can't Charles intervene and grant us a General Election, this is what should happen, get rid of the whole damn circus

    Nope, but even if he did, what would be the point? Sir Keir doesn't have any more idea what to do than the incumbents.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Nigelb said:

    "Oh, FFS", possibly ?
    "You still here?"

    (I have heard from a reliable source that HRH is very concerned.)
This discussion has been closed.