Other, less precise, estimates have suggested Russia has fewer missiles left. With noting that the anti-ship (Oniks) and surface-to-air (S-300) missiles that Russia has used against civilian targets aren't included. I think Russia has a vast quantity of S-300 missiles.
Interesting, I’ve not seen anything like that before either.
So the enemy is using up missiles nearly as fast as they’re using up tanks, and the vast majority of them aren’t hitting their intended targets - either taken out by air defences, or not being accurate enough to go where they’re told.
Confusing?
The tweet you linked interprets that as '33% have been used'.
I'd say the Ukraine MOD, where he got the graph from, suggest the opposite - 33% remaining unused.
I take issue with the words wise Tory heads, but anyway...
It’s either Barclay or Mogg.
Just a reminder from me, despite what 100% of media coverage and 99.9% of PB is telling me, I’m sure the mini budget is not the real cause of this crisis. The Energy Price Guarantee is.
Morning all.
I'm not convinced on that one. The Energy Price guarantee is not really that much out of line with packages being introduced in countries across Europe. Compare, say, to the package in Germany.
It was first afaics, but others are pretty much in line.
In my analysis the German one dies 4 days 17 hours before ours, the market hates that one too.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
If we somehow managed a GE this year then we could have Twelve Tory MPs...
I was the Nostradamus who said despite losing the Tory majority in 2017 May would continue on for a good few years. I'm back on now to say Truss is complete toast with immediate effect. Her position is utterly untenable and she has to walk before she is surely pushed within days.
Given that the OBR are going to have to give a fresh assessment of any 'new' (U-turned) fiscal plans, the next Budget/statement will have to be delayed beyond Halloween? Won't it?
They did the last one in about 10 mins on a back of a fag packet and expected to get away with it. Has anything changed?
A group of senior Tories have been holding discussions + have decided the following: the sacking of @KwasiKwarteng will prompt them to come out publicly next week + call on @trussliz to resign. My source: “These are serious people. The PM will find it difficult to survive.”
I have 5000 reasons its too late for Rishi to become PM ... 😡
If he replaces her this year it'll be the politics equivalent of getting it in the stewards room after the race - so I'd argue for a payout if I were you. Take it all the way to the SC if necessary. Crowdfund your fees and I'll chip a fiver in.
I watched the 'rise' of Liz Truss and her poundshop IEA neoliberalism in the 2010's. For centrists like me, the one consolation of Brexit and the rise of Trump was that I thought it consigned this type of political thinking to history. This 7 week long experiment has been like some strange last gasp on the part of the IEA poundshop neoliberals. Now they are completely destroyed, ruined, humiliated.
You do know that the IEA poundshop neoliberals supported Brexit, right? In 2013 the IEA even launched a competition to find the best Brexit plan (prize EUR100k), judged by the uber poundshop neoliberal and Brexit supporter Nigel Lawson. Brexit was dreamt up to cement the neoliberal settlement in Britain, not bury it.
The problem for the IEA is they are wealthy, upper middle class fiscally conservative, socially liberal libertarians mainly West London based. They wanted to create Singapore on Thames.
However the average Leave voter was a working class or lower middle class, economic centrist but social conservative who wanted more money for the NHS and to cut immigration, not to slash the size of the state. Boris won them in the redwall, Truss and her IEA agenda has sent them back to Labour under Starmer on a plate
Right-wing populist movements always seem to end up captured by libertarian, protect-the-rich interests.
Other, less precise, estimates have suggested Russia has fewer missiles left. With noting that the anti-ship (Oniks) and surface-to-air (S-300) missiles that Russia has used against civilian targets aren't included. I think Russia has a vast quantity of S-300 missiles.
Interesting, I’ve not seen anything like that before either.
So the enemy is using up missiles nearly as fast as they’re using up tanks, and the vast majority of them aren’t hitting their intended targets - either taken out by air defences, or not being accurate enough to go where they’re told.
Not just on usage, but on stocks.
Where do the figures come from? Russians are busy complaining about equipment that has been bought and paid for but doesn't exist.
I expect that, as with everything else in the Russian military arsenal, there’s quite the difference between what’s theoretically in stock, and what’s actually available and serviceable. The more complex missiles need a fair bit of maintainence, and the procurement process is legendary for not delivering as many of anything as have been actuallty ordered.
Nice dacha in Sochi for the procurement officer though. Hope he avoids those high windows.
I watched the 'rise' of Liz Truss and her poundshop IEA neoliberalism in the 2010's. For centrists like me, the one consolation of Brexit and the rise of Trump was that I thought it consigned this type of political thinking to history. This 7 week long experiment has been like some strange last gasp on the part of the IEA poundshop neoliberals. Now they are completely destroyed, ruined, humiliated.
You do know that the IEA poundshop neoliberals supported Brexit, right? In 2013 the IEA even launched a competition to find the best Brexit plan (prize EUR100k), judged by the uber poundshop neoliberal and Brexit supporter Nigel Lawson. Brexit was dreamt up to cement the neoliberal settlement in Britain, not bury it.
The problem for the IEA is they are wealthy, upper middle class fiscally conservative, socially liberal libertarians mainly West London based. They wanted to create Singapore on Thames.
However the average Leave voter was a working class or lower middle class, economic centrist but social conservative who wanted more money for the NHS and to cut immigration, not to slash the size of the state. Boris won them in the redwall, Truss and her IEA agenda has sent them back to Labour under Starmer on a plate
Right-wing populist movements always seem to end up captured by libertarian, protect-the-rich interests.
But they need the former to win elections still.
Cameron won with a more traditional centre-right agenda. I don’t think populism is needed to win.
My wife goes back to America every three or four months to visit her parents for a couple of week. Last time she was there was in July and Johnson resigned before she got back. She landed in Boston again yesterday...
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
Could be three if KCIII doesn't learn to shut his trap.
Has Kwarteng actually been sacked or will he send in a resignation letter* ? Can't remember the last time anyone got sacked from cabinet. Unless I'm misremembering. An actual sacking would be doubly brutal.
* Yes I know it's keeping up appearances.
Ministers always resign. I think it’s some sort of convention, because strictly speaking they serve the Monarch rather than the PM.
No, they can be sacked. Williamson was, for example, in a letter instructing him to surrender his seal of office. But usually they resign.
Has Kwarteng actually been sacked or will he send in a resignation letter* ? Can't remember the last time anyone got sacked from cabinet. Unless I'm misremembering. An actual sacking would be doubly brutal.
* Yes I know it's keeping up appearances.
Ministers always resign. I think it’s some sort of convention, because strictly speaking they serve the Monarch rather than the PM.
No, they can be sacked. Williamson was, for example, in a letter instructing him to surrender his seal of office. But usually they resign.
Effectively that's being instructed to resign. But we're in Angels on Heads of Pins territory here.
Other, less precise, estimates have suggested Russia has fewer missiles left. With noting that the anti-ship (Oniks) and surface-to-air (S-300) missiles that Russia has used against civilian targets aren't included. I think Russia has a vast quantity of S-300 missiles.
Interesting, I’ve not seen anything like that before either.
So the enemy is using up missiles nearly as fast as they’re using up tanks, and the vast majority of them aren’t hitting their intended targets - either taken out by air defences, or not being accurate enough to go where they’re told.
Confusing?
The tweet you linked interprets that as '33% have been used'.
I'd say the Ukraine MOD, where he got the graph from, suggest the opposite - 33% remaining unused.
Yes, I'm a bit confused now too. I think you're right that it's one-third left, rather than one-third used.
They've also said that they think Russia has 300 Iranian drones left, so they can't keep up an intense period of bombardment with these missiles for that long.
I take issue with the words wise Tory heads, but anyway...
It’s either Barclay or Mogg.
Just a reminder from me, despite what 100% of media coverage and 99.9% of PB is telling me, I’m sure the mini budget is not the real cause of this crisis. The Energy Price Guarantee is.
Apologies if I have missed it, but what's your alternative to the latter?
Cheaper, better targeted on the needy, virtually pays for itself.
It will replace the energy price guarantee next spring, I can assure you 100%, but It’s very sad for UK the government has to lose a hugely expensive and damaging war with the markets first, before we can introduce a much better policy. PB and the Media currently claiming it’s only the mini budget alone that is the problem shares much responsibilty for Politics being just insane sometimes. 🙁
A group of senior Tories have been holding discussions + have decided the following: the sacking of @KwasiKwarteng will prompt them to come out publicly next week + call on @trussliz to resign. My source: “These are serious people. The PM will find it difficult to survive.”
My source tells me Liz Truss has made a mistake if she thinks her (outgoing) friend @KwasiKwarteng has no base in the parliamentary party. “People like Kwasi. He is friendly. He’s honest. Maybe a bit too honest. Maybe that’s his problem.” https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1580888490841022465
Forget about the 'serious people' description. Who are Kwarteng's "base" ?
Well Truss had no authority now so he’s basically going to be seen as the one in charge. Probably a decent bet as unity candidate for PM now too if she goes in next few days.
Just backed Hunt to be next Con leader on Ladbrokes at 46 and laid him at 15 on Betfair. So flat if it's not him, green if it is, with scope to lay more if his odds decline sharply.
Closed out most of my 2022 exit date at 2.4 just now. Think Hunt would buy her a couple of months goodwill.
Will it ? I'm not entirely sure this buys another week.
Nah, that'd have been the scenario if Simon Clarke was appointed. She's essentially outsourced the economic program to the losing wing of the party here. But it keeps her in place as PM.
Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt · 6m A group of senior Tories have been holding discussions + have decided the following: the sacking of @KwasiKwarteng will prompt them to come out publicly next week + call on @trussliz to resign. My source: “These are serious people. The PM will find it difficult to survive.”
Tory MPs should show Liz Truss the same loyalty she has shown Kwasi Kwarteng.
I think they will very soon.
Ultimately Sunak as PM, Hunt as CotE some sort of rationality restored to government... might just keep Labour to a small overall majority at the next election.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
Could be three if KCIII doesn't learn to shut his trap.
Closed out most of my 2022 exit date at 2.4 just now. Think Hunt would buy her a couple of months goodwill.
Will it ? I'm not entirely sure this buys another week.
Nah, that'd have been the scenario if Simon Clarke was appointed. She's essentially outsourced the economic program to the losing wing of the party here. But it keeps her in place as PM.
Well today is the day she ceased being PM in terms of power.
Can Hunt steady the ship, and what will the 'loonies' think of it?
My wife goes back to America every three or four months to visit her parents for a couple of week. Last time she was there was in July and Johnson resigned before she got back. She landed in Boston again yesterday...
Closed out most of my 2022 exit date at 2.4 just now. Think Hunt would buy her a couple of months goodwill.
Will it ? I'm not entirely sure this buys another week.
She is 14/1 to be leader at the next election which is getting silly as well.
Quite happy with the pair of backing 7 the last couple of weeks and laying 2.4 post Hunt. I think Hunt improves her ability to last the year, but still expect her to either go or a GE in 2023.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
Could be three if KCIII doesn't learn to shut his trap.
Dear oh dear, not a fan?
This week's audience will be at the three "oh dears" level I think.
Yes thats a good letter; of the two he is probably going to come out of this mess a lot better. She is completely on her own now. The public perception of Truss will not improve.
Don’t just be rude about Kwarteng and Truss - 99% posts today seem to be pointlessly stating she has mental illness.
a party must have a soul. Sure Starmer is riding high in polls and can even win without policy’s, or an ethos from which to fashion policys - but what would be the point? What is the point of a political party if it doesn’t have an ethos? Just keep the others out and ride the buckaroo-dandy as long as possible? What about a party’s distinct policy agenda tackling the problems facing the nation?
The Tory’s just have to go back to the Halcyon summer of eighties economic liberalism for their ethos now, and relate it to the problems facing this country - as I understand it, this is Trussism.
Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges, Levelling up is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions can ever be levelled, therefore not an honest policy platform. If the Conservative Party can now never remove the top rate of tax Gordon Brown only sneaked in in 2010 as a “sly gift” knowing it’s his last ever budget, then what sort of economics does the Conservative Party stand for?
If it’s not the economic liberalism of Lady Thatcher’s 1980s UK transforming triumphs, as Team Truss now advocate, then what is the Tory ethos to be? They are currently not governing well, and can not do so until they have sorted the question of what is their ethos out.
Explain how Trussism wrong is what you should really do with your posting time - I’m one nation in my politics, I can articulately explain how Trussism wrong. But it’s still a clear ethos and policy platform, based on economic liberalism and Thatcherism, it is very much the soul of the Conservative Party membership today, if not half it’s MPs.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
Could be three if KCIII doesn't learn to shut his trap.
Dear oh dear, not a fan?
This week's audience will be at the three "oh dears" level I think.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Logically I can’t see how she stays. What the heck is the line?
I was deceived by evil Kwasi?
I was ambushed by a tax cut?
It was all a dream?
The line, I'd have thought, is that I remain a tax-cutter but accept the need to do so more gradually in a manner that retains the confidence of the markets. The mini-budget damaged confidence, and we need a reset whilst continuing to work towards the tax cutting agenda. The Chancellor has concluded that the reset requires him to step aside, and I've reluctantly accepted that. X, who shares my aim to reduce taxes and unleash growth, but who of course supported by opponent in the recent leadership election, has agreed to take on the job and we look forward to working together against the Anti Growth Coalition etc etc.
Yes, it's a humiliation and she's accepting someone moving in next door specifically to take over economic policy, in order to save her own job.
But she's not the only PM who, in a weak position, has been forced to change policies and personnel to mollify the party.
I was the Nostradamus who said despite losing the Tory majority in 2017 May would continue on for a good few years. I'm back on now to say Truss is complete toast with immediate effect. Her position is utterly untenable and she has to walk before she is surely pushed within days.
Who was the first on this board to predict: a) Truss would be PM and b) she would be a disaster.?
Displaying Leon-levels of modesty - ahem- I think I am one of the first, if not the actual first. I said it would be her when the general opinion was that it would be Penny or Rishi. I also said she would be dreadful.
The problem for Truss - and for the country - is that she no longer has a mandate on ANY basis. The country saw a different manifesto in 2019, Tory MPs wanted another leader, and the party membership voted for a prospectus now in the bin.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Logically I can’t see how she stays. What the heck is the line?
I was deceived by evil Kwasi?
I was ambushed by a tax cut?
It was all a dream?
The line, I'd have thought, is that I remain a tax-cutter but accept the need to do so more gradually in a manner that retains the confidence of the markets. The mini-budget damaged confidence, and we need a reset whilst continuing to work towards the tax cutting agenda. The Chancellor has concluded that the reset requires him to step aside, and I've reluctantly accepted that. X, who shares my aim to reduce taxes and unleash growth, but who of course supported by opponent in the recent leadership election, has agreed to take on the job and we look forward to working together against the Anti Growth Coalition etc etc.
Yes, it's a humiliation and she's accepting someone moving in next door specifically to take over economic policy, in order to save her own job.
But she's not the only PM who, in a weak position, has been forced to change policies and personnel to mollify the party.
The party ain't mollified....
And the support of those who were onside is now perhaps questionable ?
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 42m 2022 will be known, says a friend in the City, as the year of the four chancellors. Will it also be the year of the three prime ministers?
Two monarchs as well. We’ve got the makings of a Christmas carol
Could be three if KCIII doesn't learn to shut his trap.
Dear oh dear, not a fan?
This week's audience will be at the three "oh dears" level I think.
"Oh, FFS", possibly ?
"You still here?"
(I have heard from a reliable source that HRH is very concerned.)
Comments
The tweet you linked interprets that as '33% have been used'.
I'd say the Ukraine MOD, where he got the graph from, suggest the opposite - 33% remaining unused.
Pauses.
Sits down.
To zero.
Nice dacha in Sochi for the procurement officer though. Hope he avoids those high windows.
There was a Chancellor of the Exchequer called Julius Caesar.
Actually, it's not that fun a fact, but it's all you deserve and all you're getting.
Four other volunteers for the rest of the week though please......
Darn.
They've also said that they think Russia has 300 Iranian drones left, so they can't keep up an intense period of bombardment with these missiles for that long.
@Steven_Swinford
·
3m
Hearing that the clear out at the Treasury is not limited to Kwasi Kwarteng - other ministers likely to go too
But he is the shortest serving chancellor who didn't die in office.
All must be sacrificed to save the Queen!
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A-Variable-Energy-Price-Cap.pdf
Cheaper, better targeted on the needy, virtually pays for itself.
It will replace the energy price guarantee next spring, I can assure you 100%, but It’s very sad for UK the government has to lose a hugely expensive and damaging war with the markets first, before we can introduce a much better policy. PB and the Media currently claiming it’s only the mini budget alone that is the problem shares much responsibilty for Politics being just insane sometimes. 🙁
What larks!!!!
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1580888490841022465
Forget about the 'serious people' description.
Who are Kwarteng's "base" ?
I'm not entirely sure this buys another week.
He could stand on his head and raise UC by £100 a week and she still couldn't get rid of him now.
Nurses can leave ‘if they want to’ – they have already had a pay rise, says Thérèse Coffey
https://nursingnotes.co.uk/news/nurses-can-leave-if-they-want-to-they-have-already-had-a-pay-rise-says-therese-coffey/
Looking good...
Ultimately Sunak as PM, Hunt as CotE some sort of rationality restored to government... might just keep Labour to a small overall majority at the next election.
Can Hunt steady the ship, and what will the 'loonies' think of it?
'Dear Prime Minister, you have asked me to resign as Chancellor and this I most willingly do. Yours sincerely, Selwyn Lloyd.'
I'll pay.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580893574711107584
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Chris Philip is also on his way out,
@politicshome
understands
Friday of the long knives it seems.
Liz likes giving out the pain as well as taking it.
Quite happy with the pair of backing 7 the last couple of weeks and laying 2.4 post Hunt. I think Hunt improves her ability to last the year, but still expect her to either go or a GE in 2023.
What price FoM before too long.
She is completely on her own now. The public perception of Truss will not improve.
Ouch.
BZZZZTTT
"Kwarteng, Cambridge"
"Correct"
https://twitter.com/MrJonDePlume/status/1580880605817950209/photo/1
Now 1.08/1.13
Don’t just be rude about Kwarteng and Truss - 99% posts today seem to be pointlessly stating she has mental illness.
a party must have a soul. Sure Starmer is riding high in polls and can even win without policy’s, or an ethos from which to fashion policys - but what would be the point? What is the point of a political party if it doesn’t have an ethos? Just keep the others out and ride the buckaroo-dandy as long as possible? What about a party’s distinct policy agenda tackling the problems facing the nation?
The Tory’s just have to go back to the Halcyon summer of eighties economic liberalism for their ethos now, and relate it to the problems facing this country - as I understand it, this is Trussism.
Planning laws and other structural rigidities keep Britain poorer than it should be
our merchant banks made us great once and the City can again, our advantage lies in professional services, ease of doing business and a capital city on which all the world converges,
Levelling up is just pretend the ancient mismatch in scale and wealth between London and the secondary cities their regions can ever be levelled, therefore not an honest policy platform.
If the Conservative Party can now never remove the top rate of tax Gordon Brown only sneaked in in 2010 as a “sly gift” knowing it’s his last ever budget, then what sort of economics does the Conservative Party stand for?
If it’s not the economic liberalism of Lady Thatcher’s 1980s UK transforming triumphs, as Team Truss now advocate, then what is the Tory ethos to be? They are currently not governing well, and can not do so until they have sorted the question of what is their ethos out.
Explain how Trussism wrong is what you should really do with your posting time - I’m one nation in my politics, I can articulately explain how Trussism wrong. But it’s still a clear ethos and policy platform, based on economic liberalism and Thatcherism, it is very much the soul of the Conservative Party membership today, if not half it’s MPs.
a) Truss would be PM
and
b) she would be a disaster.?
Displaying Leon-levels of modesty - ahem- I think I am one of the first, if not the actual first. I said it would be her when the general opinion was that it would be Penny or Rishi. I also said she would be dreadful.
So we're fucked then.
From where can she claim legitimacy? ~AA
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1580894934030520324
He's probably looking forward to that.
(I have heard from a reliable source that HRH is very concerned.)