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Rishi back as betting favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Scott_xP said:

    A former minister gets in touch: "Boris Johnson said 'when the herd moves, it moves'. Paul's solution seems to be to slaughter the herd."

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580857988599861250
    https://twitter.com/paulbristow79/status/1580842967258267648

    Who the eff is Paul Bristow ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Either he backflips so bad he's paralysed, or he resigns to stand by the principle his disastrous Budget was, in the face of all the evidence, brilliant. Choices, choices.

    Either way the international speaking circuit will be able to get him for a bargain price.

    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1580860523503288320
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Not clear but arguable even so, as so many things are in economics. Would things and growth in particular have been even worse without the cuts? Who knows?

    What is clear is that we had a very large deficit and had a government that was promising to write a blank cheque on energy costs without any confidence about what it might ultimately cost. Who have fiscal budgets that were stretched before inflation and had grossly insufficient provision for the current inflation in them resulting in either massive cuts or, more likely, serious overspends. And they wanted to cut taxes at the same time. Jeez.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_xP said:

    Reliably informed by @KatyAustinNews that Chancellor plane circling, in a holding pattern. One for the headline writers….?
    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1580856555456860160

    Wow, plane from the US to Heathrow has to stack near London? Never heard of that before.

    Idiots, the lot of them in the Lobby.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    There will be the odd company who relocates for tax reasons.

    They will tend to be companies who would then just as quickly relocate again if someone else offers a better deal. Whilst here they will take aggressive tax minimisation and accounting strategies, use aggressive contracts with workers, suppliers, customers and governments. Who will exploit any weaknesses they can find.

    Basically the type of companies who add little value to society. Whatever they add won't offset the taxes paid by the far more numerous decent and profitable businesses who are already here.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    There will be the odd company who relocates for tax reasons.

    They will tend to be companies who would then just as quickly relocate again if someone else offers a better deal. Whilst here they will take aggressive tax minimisation and accounting strategies, use aggressive contracts with workers, suppliers, customers and governments. Who will exploit any weaknesses they can find.

    Basically the type of companies who add little value to society. Whatever they add won't offset the taxes paid by the far more numerous decent and profitable businesses who are already here.
    Ireland would like a word.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    The absolute worst case scenario would be another 3 month leadership election. The current cabinet cannot allow that to happen.

    The current cabinet are a significant part of the problem, as they consist largely of Truss loyalists.

    That they represent of clique of the Conservative party which isn't even a majority of the party, let alone enjoys the support of more than a small fraction of the electorate, doesn't seem to bother their defenders.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    G7 plus Spain. You can argue to take Spain out, in which case you're looking at a sharper % decrease, of course.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746

    Scott_xP said:

    Buyer’s remorse in the Tory Party membership… https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1580855287291949057/photo/1


    I’m just embarrassed for her now. I think she must and will go, but god how mortifying. Hope she has a good support network because this is the sort of stuff that would utterly break a person.
    I feel sorry for her on a personal level but it is a terrible idea to keep someone on as Prime Minister based on feelings of pity. Too much harm has been done already, and there is far too much at stake.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    G7 plus Spain. You can argue to take Spain out, in which case you're looking at a sharper % decrease, of course.
    You think the G7 isn't selective?
  • HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't see how Sunak gets the leadership by coronation, which is the only way he can get it. The ERG MPs are bound to put up Braverman or Badenoch or even Boris again against him and then Sunak would likely lose the membership vote again.

    The ONLY viable candidate is one who both most Tory MPs AND most Tory members can support. For me that remains Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is popular in Tory membership polls, backed Truss but is otherwise a competent and safe pair of hands. In a similar vein that was why IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, was the only viable candidate to replace IDS when he lost the VONC of his MPs in 2003, not Ken Clarke for instance.

    It should also be noted that the reason Tory members picked Truss and Labour members picked Corbyn is if you join a political party you don't just want to win every general election, you also want one who shifts the country in a more right or leftwing direction respectively. That does not mean members never pick electable leaders though, they do if out of power long enough and they want to win, as Tories did when they picked Cameron in 2005 or Labour members did when they picked Starmer in 2020

    Very good points here, and I think you've got a better handle on how Tory members think than most on here.

    If it is Ben Wallace somehow, does that mean he fights next election? I feel like a viable candidate maybe has to be someone who stands down before next general election?
    Yes, if it is Wallace he definitely fights the next general election, they can't change leader again.

    He could be a Douglas Home figure, who let us not forget only lost to Wilson in 1964 very narrowly
    Nor was he the worst PM to take office in my lifetime (that's Atlee onwards since you ask.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    🚨 PM Liz Truss to give a press conference this afternoon.

    Sources telling @SamCoatesSky that it looks like a deal on the u-turn has been done. Corporation tax - one of the cornerstones of Liz Truss's leadership campaign - likely to be ditched.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    How does this u-turn actually change anything? Do they somehow miraculously think the public will forgive them and the polling numbers will improve?

    Just seems so chaotic. She has lost all credibility
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    There will be the odd company who relocates for tax reasons.

    They will tend to be companies who would then just as quickly relocate again if someone else offers a better deal. Whilst here they will take aggressive tax minimisation and accounting strategies, use aggressive contracts with workers, suppliers, customers and governments. Who will exploit any weaknesses they can find.

    Basically the type of companies who add little value to society. Whatever they add won't offset the taxes paid by the far more numerous decent and profitable businesses who are already here.
    Ireland would like a word.
    Excellent example.

    Google in Ireland was supposed to pay 12.5%. Instead they used the Double Irish Dutch Sandwich to pay just 2.4% in Ireland by aggressively moving revenue to Bermuda and other tax havens.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited October 2022

    How does this u-turn actually change anything? Do they somehow miraculously think the public will forgive them and the polling numbers will improve?

    Just seems so chaotic. She has lost all credibility

    Bond yields are back to 4%. It was the main market shock news since everything else (Bar 1 year b/f of income tax cut) was pre-known.
    So it will satisfy the markets as it doesn't create an ongoing revenue hole.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    How does this u-turn actually change anything? Do they somehow miraculously think the public will forgive them and the polling numbers will improve?

    Just seems so chaotic. She has lost all credibility

    It changes from "going to lose the next election" to "deserves to lose the next election".
  • I can only speak from personal experience, but the rate of corporation tax never made a blind bit of difference to us when we were building our business and making investment decisions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    There will be the odd company who relocates for tax reasons.

    They will tend to be companies who would then just as quickly relocate again if someone else offers a better deal. Whilst here they will take aggressive tax minimisation and accounting strategies, use aggressive contracts with workers, suppliers, customers and governments. Who will exploit any weaknesses they can find.

    Basically the type of companies who add little value to society. Whatever they add won't offset the taxes paid by the far more numerous decent and profitable businesses who are already here.
    Ireland would like a word.
    You think running a corporate tax haven similar to Ireland is a sustainable strategy for a country with well over ten times the population ?
    And even if it were, which it isn't, you 'd need first to rejoin the EU.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    There will be the odd company who relocates for tax reasons.

    They will tend to be companies who would then just as quickly relocate again if someone else offers a better deal. Whilst here they will take aggressive tax minimisation and accounting strategies, use aggressive contracts with workers, suppliers, customers and governments. Who will exploit any weaknesses they can find.

    Basically the type of companies who add little value to society. Whatever they add won't offset the taxes paid by the far more numerous decent and profitable businesses who are already here.
    Ireland would like a word.
    Excellent example.

    Google in Ireland was supposed to pay 12.5%. Instead they used the Double Irish Dutch Sandwich to pay just 2.4% in Ireland by aggressively moving revenue to Bermuda and other tax havens.
    Sure, but there they are. Ireland doesn't seem in a hurry to increase its levels of Corporation Tax.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Asked if the Chancellor will be at the press conference, source says it's a "PM presser"
    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1580862953389428736
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited October 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    It's the G7 + Spain.

    That doesn't sound very selective to me.
  • So, two years of zombie government and culture wars it is then.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the costs of Starlink in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1580827171903635456
    Very interesting statement from @elonmusk re Ukrainian StarLink and how damaging it is for @SpaceX economics.

    Being Ukrainian actually in the topic of StarLinks, I want to tell you some based facts re starlinks in Ukraine...

    ... I admire the actions of SpaceX of enabling StarLink service in Ukraine. It is a true game changer for Ukrainian army in the open fields of no cellular, and long distances not suitable for radios, given the situation is changing quick on the battlefield.

    It’s a game-changer....

    ...Despite that, I have not seen ANY StarLink which was bought by the governments, or by SpaceX. All the Starlinks I have seen / used - were bought either by volunteers like myself, or soldiers put their personal money in.

    The subscription price is also paid out of the pocket...


    While all of the above is probably true, it's likely that the current retail prices in Europe do not begin to reflect the actual cost of providing the service (and would do so only if the number of subscribers were an order of magnitude larger).

    See for example:

    Musk says may need $30 bln to keep Starlink in orbit
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/musk-sees-starlink-winning-500000-customers-next-12-months-2021-06-29/

    The US government/DOD needs to step in and sort out this spat, as the service is absolutely vital to the Ukraine war effort.

    Not seen billion abbreviated to bln rather than bn before.

    Caused me a bit of a comprehension/reading fail - I thought, if he does need a $30 bin to keep starlink in orbit why doesn't he just send one of his flunkies out to a shop to buy one?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Pulpstar said:

    How does this u-turn actually change anything? Do they somehow miraculously think the public will forgive them and the polling numbers will improve?

    Just seems so chaotic. She has lost all credibility

    Bond yields are back to 4%. It was the main market shock news since everything else (Bar 1 year b/f of income tax cut) was pre-known.
    So it will satisfy the markets as it doesn't create an ongoing revenue hole.
    I don’t think it matters - it looks like to me she quite clearly gambled, messed up, and as a result has 0 grip or authority on matters. A worse position to be in as everything she campaigned on - being tough, prepared to be unpopular, project fear - has been proven to be utter tosh
  • I can only speak from personal experience, but the rate of corporation tax never made a blind bit of difference to us when we were building our business and making investment decisions.

    It's part of the overall picture, along with allowances, simplicity, transparency, and above all stability. Sunak was right that there is room to increase the 19% without doing any significant damage. I wouldn't personally have gone all the way up to 25%, but even that figure is not out of line with competitive jurisdictions (although of course we do have Brexit making the UK less attractive than competitive jurisdictions).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    If Kwarteng and Truss put up corporation tax, does that mean they’re in the anti-growth coalition?
    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1580809279069884416
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    If you're starting your posts with, "As usual, John Red(w)ood hits the nail on the head" then you've got bigger problems than I thought.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MVwHzOYT9Q&t=30s
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    What does Kwasi do now?

    If his entire not-a-budget is gutted, does he resign? Does he get sacked? Can he possibly carry on if nobody believes or respects him?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    There will be the odd company who relocates for tax reasons.

    They will tend to be companies who would then just as quickly relocate again if someone else offers a better deal. Whilst here they will take aggressive tax minimisation and accounting strategies, use aggressive contracts with workers, suppliers, customers and governments. Who will exploit any weaknesses they can find.

    Basically the type of companies who add little value to society. Whatever they add won't offset the taxes paid by the far more numerous decent and profitable businesses who are already here.
    Ireland would like a word.
    Ireland was a massive outlier: a country offering a 15% tax rate, when almost everyone in Europe was 35+%.

    Now half the countries in Europe are at 20% or less, so your ability to differentiate yourself based on your tax rate is smaller.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited October 2022
    If I was the collective consciousness of Tory MPs this is what I would do.

    1. Beg Cameron and Osborne to return as PM and Chancellor in the Lords. I think the loss of economic confidence is large enough that it justifies such an abnormal response, and they have the credibility to steady the ship. Also, since neither are MPs this would be explicitly a temporary measure until the next election.
    2. Announce that the next election will happen on Thursday 2nd May 2024 - time enough for the new boundaries, but not so desperate as pushing the election all the way to Jan 2025.
    3. Use that time to reform the method for Tory leadership elections, perhaps as part of a major overhaul of Tory party membership.
    4. After reforming the leadership election rules, kick off a new leadership contest, with the aim to have a new leadership team in place to contest the 2024GE.

    The pressure for an early GE would be strong, but I think they really need to separate a caretaker unity leader from choosing who fights the next election, because they're too divided to identify one person to fulfill both roles. Ennobling Cameron and Osborne enables them to do that.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    I can only speak from personal experience, but the rate of corporation tax never made a blind bit of difference to us when we were building our business and making investment decisions.

    I can echo this. Obviously I think people would 'prefer' it to be lower than higher, but you're going to be making generally the same decisions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Pulpstar said:

    How does this u-turn actually change anything? Do they somehow miraculously think the public will forgive them and the polling numbers will improve?

    Just seems so chaotic. She has lost all credibility

    Bond yields are back to 4%. It was the main market shock news since everything else (Bar 1 year b/f of income tax cut) was pre-known.
    So it will satisfy the markets as it doesn't create an ongoing revenue hole.
    We do have an ongoing revenue hole. In fact we have 2. We have the existing deficit, which is only going to go up as wage claims are settled through the public sector and we have a blank cheque for gas. Correcting the aggravations of the mini-budget does nothing to fix this.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the costs of Starlink in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1580827171903635456
    Very interesting statement from @elonmusk re Ukrainian StarLink and how damaging it is for @SpaceX economics.

    Being Ukrainian actually in the topic of StarLinks, I want to tell you some based facts re starlinks in Ukraine...

    ... I admire the actions of SpaceX of enabling StarLink service in Ukraine. It is a true game changer for Ukrainian army in the open fields of no cellular, and long distances not suitable for radios, given the situation is changing quick on the battlefield.

    It’s a game-changer....

    ...Despite that, I have not seen ANY StarLink which was bought by the governments, or by SpaceX. All the Starlinks I have seen / used - were bought either by volunteers like myself, or soldiers put their personal money in.

    The subscription price is also paid out of the pocket...


    While all of the above is probably true, it's likely that the current retail prices in Europe do not begin to reflect the actual cost of providing the service (and would do so only if the number of subscribers were an order of magnitude larger).

    See for example:

    Musk says may need $30 bln to keep Starlink in orbit
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/musk-sees-starlink-winning-500000-customers-next-12-months-2021-06-29/

    The US government/DOD needs to step in and sort out this spat, as the service is absolutely vital to the Ukraine war effort.

    According to someone I know who has personal knowledge of the situation - the service in Ukraine requires extra work from the Starlink company. This is to do with protecting the system from ongoing attacks which are heavy and sustained. The geo-locking of the system to territory that Ukraine actually controls is part of this.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    This is a fascinating live stream - which lettuce will last longer?

    https://twitter.com/dailystar/status/1580830837331087361?s=46&t=eb7sly2C2DAxUJRY1_Ua5w

    You do have to give it to the Daily Star for creativity
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_xP said:

    What does Kwasi do now?

    If his entire not-a-budget is gutted, does he resign? Does he get sacked? Can he possibly carry on if nobody believes or respects him?

    In normal times he would go. No choice in the matter. Authority in the toilet. If Truss were wise she would recognise that and let him resign and appoint someone market friendly.

    So he will stay
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    There will be the odd company who relocates for tax reasons.

    They will tend to be companies who would then just as quickly relocate again if someone else offers a better deal. Whilst here they will take aggressive tax minimisation and accounting strategies, use aggressive contracts with workers, suppliers, customers and governments. Who will exploit any weaknesses they can find.

    Basically the type of companies who add little value to society. Whatever they add won't offset the taxes paid by the far more numerous decent and profitable businesses who are already here.
    Ireland would like a word.
    You think running a corporate tax haven similar to Ireland is a sustainable strategy for a country with well over ten times the population ?
    And even if it were, which it isn't, you 'd need first to rejoin the EU.
    That's not what I'm saying; I am simply using it as an argument, if any were needed, that lower corporation tax means a territory is more attractive to inward-investment, all other things being equal. RCS's table is interesting, but ultimately not an argument, because there are huge amounts of other factors in economical growth. The only logical conclusion is that the economies he sights have lost ground for other reasons, and that reducing their levels of corporation tax has been beneficial but not beneficial enough.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Truss out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the costs of Starlink in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1580827171903635456
    Very interesting statement from @elonmusk re Ukrainian StarLink and how damaging it is for @SpaceX economics.

    Being Ukrainian actually in the topic of StarLinks, I want to tell you some based facts re starlinks in Ukraine...

    ... I admire the actions of SpaceX of enabling StarLink service in Ukraine. It is a true game changer for Ukrainian army in the open fields of no cellular, and long distances not suitable for radios, given the situation is changing quick on the battlefield.

    It’s a game-changer....

    ...Despite that, I have not seen ANY StarLink which was bought by the governments, or by SpaceX. All the Starlinks I have seen / used - were bought either by volunteers like myself, or soldiers put their personal money in.

    The subscription price is also paid out of the pocket...


    While all of the above is probably true, it's likely that the current retail prices in Europe do not begin to reflect the actual cost of providing the service (and would do so only if the number of subscribers were an order of magnitude larger).

    See for example:

    Musk says may need $30 bln to keep Starlink in orbit
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/musk-sees-starlink-winning-500000-customers-next-12-months-2021-06-29/

    The US government/DOD needs to step in and sort out this spat, as the service is absolutely vital to the Ukraine war effort.

    Not seen billion abbreviated to bln rather than bn before.

    Caused me a bit of a comprehension/reading fail - I thought, if he does need a $30 bin to keep starlink in orbit why doesn't he just send one of his flunkies out to a shop to buy one?
    A further point - given the tidal wave of money that is being thrown at defence contractors, maybe Musk is wondering why he shouldn't recover costs?
  • Scott_xP said:

    What does Kwasi do now?

    If his entire not-a-budget is gutted, does he resign? Does he get sacked? Can he possibly carry on if nobody believes or respects him?

    What makes the situation even worse is the dogmatic language they have used to describe the budget and every aspect of it.
    There was no alternative
    They were critical to drive growth
    Anyone opposed was the anti-growth coalition

    So how do KT spin this?
    It wasn't essential and they were lying to us?
    It IS essential and the markets/IMF/OBR/WB are wrong?
    It is essential but less so than stability so we'll just have to accept staying poorer?

    A stupid policy. Amplified to ELE-levels by massive arrogance rarely seen in combination with total incompetence.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Credibility (of Truss +co) = Zero.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Truss out.
    What is the point of her? Totally useless. Tory perceived economic competence damaged. Ugh
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    G7 plus Spain. You can argue to take Spain out, in which case you're looking at a sharper % decrease, of course.
    You think the G7 isn't selective?
    I think any selection is by definition selective. One that picked a number of obscure countries to make the point would be suspect. One that is using a recognised group of large economies (plus one other which doesn't really change the message) is not.

    What should we do, an RCT with countries randomised to different corporation tax levels?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    On balance I expect Truss to survive on the grounds it'd be a farce too far otherwise. But I thought Johnson would survive too (wrong) and I'm the bloke with Labour majority laid @ 6 (ouch) so I'm no longer quite the perpetual winning machine that everyone has grown used to watching. I've gone a bit "off". Can you smell it? Bet you can. Yuck.

    Fwiw though - which I hope still hovers above zero - if they do decide to go for it I can certainly see it being Sunak. Ok, he was rejected by the members but so what? By ditching Truss and skipping a contest they are in any case saying to that bunch of venerables, "sorry but you screwed up royally and we don't trust you now, we want the best person for the job and that's X. Like it or lump it".

    In this event X surely has to be an experienced heavyweight (or as close to it as this denuded party can manage) with proven competence in high office who will govern pragmatically rather than ideologically, who can communicate well to the public, and who won't be anathema either to the One Nation or the ERG wing of the party. Also, and oh god I suppose it still has to be said, if X supported Brexit that is all the better.

    Does anybody tick those boxes as well as Sunak does? - I can't think of anybody.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Truss out.
    Oh dear.

    I can't support that, or her.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    If Truss sacks Kwasi, can she afford another enemy on the backbenches, or does it not matter anymore?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Truss out.
    What is the point of her? Totally useless. Tory perceived economic competence damaged. Ugh
    As long as she was sticking to what her party elected her for, there was a point, no matter who disagreed with her. She wasn't elected to put up taxes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    It's the G7 + Spain.

    That doesn't sound very selective to me.
    it is indeed selective - since it eliminates small tax havens which appear to be @Luckyguy1983 's favoured model for economic policy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Truss out.
    What is the point of her? Totally useless. Tory perceived economic competence damaged. Ugh
    Yes.

    A sensible policy, would have been to put the tax up. With large allowances for investment in productivity (see Rishi) and training (high quality). If you want to pay 0% Corp Tax - invest like crazy in machinery and people.

    I'm sure that someone would whine that this is unfair on the hedge fund style companies that outsource everyone and everything to China et al.

    But as the chap said, sometime you have to say "Fuck business".
  • On Betfair, the price for Labour Majority has drifted from about 1.95 to 2.08.

    This suggests to me that the Conservative Party is about to do something sensible.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    . @benrileysmith is reporting Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are sticking to their National Insurance cut (voted through by MPs this week) and the income tax basic rate cut.
    How can Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng survive this?
    More at @jrmaidment's live blog: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    On Betfair, the price for Labour Majority has drifted from about 1.95 to 2.08.

    This suggests to me that the Conservative Party is about to do something sensible.

    What Truss is about to do is concede the election.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    On Betfair, the price for Labour Majority has drifted from about 1.95 to 2.08.

    This suggests to me that the Conservative Party is about to do something sensible.

    No - it suggests that the punters think that the Conservative Party is about to do something sensible.

    Why should they?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973

    On Betfair, the price for Labour Majority has drifted from about 1.95 to 2.08.

    This suggests to me that the Conservative Party is about to do something sensible.

    Like remove Truss as PM?
  • Scott_xP said:

    What does Kwasi do now?

    If his entire not-a-budget is gutted, does he resign? Does he get sacked? Can he possibly carry on if nobody believes or respects him?

    What makes the situation even worse is the dogmatic language they have used to describe the budget and every aspect of it.
    There was no alternative
    They were critical to drive growth
    Anyone opposed was the anti-growth coalition

    So how do KT spin this?
    It wasn't essential and they were lying to us?
    It IS essential and the markets/IMF/OBR/WB are wrong?
    It is essential but less so than stability so we'll just have to accept staying poorer?

    A stupid policy. Amplified to ELE-levels by massive arrogance rarely seen in combination with total incompetence.
    I would guess it will be delayed until affordable rather than cancelled. Due to global market conditions.

    Just about enough to hold up a 90 second soundbite interview.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Pretty special flying all the way back from Washington at the last minute for a press conference it turns out you're not allowed to do.
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1580866700001411073
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    On the original post - I'm with Mike on the lack of ability of party members to successfully choose a leader. They're (collectively) too blinkered, and see it as their opportunity to impose what they want rather than giving enough weight to electability.

    This is doubly the case with the current Tory party, which is in power off the back of an unholy alliance of its usual support and working class Brexiteers. Although they probably abhor "handouts" and high taxes for themselves, I suspect many are far more comfortable with Johnson's levelling up agenda and generally Keynesian economic vibes*. As the polling clearly shows, their support is distinctly soft. Yet the Truss/Kwarteng agenda is very much aimed at the 80 thousand who elected her.

    (*however homeopathic)
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Scott_xP said:

    . @benrileysmith is reporting Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are sticking to their National Insurance cut (voted through by MPs this week) and the income tax basic rate cut.
    How can Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng survive this?
    More at @jrmaidment's live blog: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Ah, OK, so there's some positive news at least.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Truss out.
    What is the point of her? Totally useless. Tory perceived economic competence damaged. Ugh
    Yes.

    A sensible policy, would have been to put the tax up. With large allowances for investment in productivity (see Rishi) and training (high quality). If you want to pay 0% Corp Tax - invest like crazy in machinery and people.

    I'm sure that someone would whine that this is unfair on the hedge fund style companies that outsource everyone and everything to China et al.

    But as the chap said, sometime you have to say "Fuck business".
    +1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    This one was priced in, I understand.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    She is soooooooooooo close to getting it...


    I have three priorities: growth, growth, growth.
    Except when I u-turn, u-turn, u-turn?
    Why would businesses choose to invest in the UK if they can't trust a word the PM says?


    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1580866686055780353
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    It's the G7 + Spain.

    That doesn't sound very selective to me.
    it is indeed selective - since it eliminates small tax havens which appear to be @Luckyguy1983 's favoured model for economic policy.
    Also the headline rates can be very deceptive. Only a clown, without access to vaguely competent lawyer and accountant, pays anything like the full US rate, for example.
  • If I was the collective consciousness of Tory MPs this is what I would do.

    1. Beg Cameron and Osborne to return as PM and Chancellor in the Lords. I think the loss of economic confidence is large enough that it justifies such an abnormal response, and they have the credibility to steady the ship. Also, since neither are MPs this would be explicitly a temporary measure until the next election.
    2. Announce that the next election will happen on Thursday 2nd May 2024 - time enough for the new boundaries, but not so desperate as pushing the election all the way to Jan 2025.
    3. Use that time to reform the method for Tory leadership elections, perhaps as part of a major overhaul of Tory party membership.
    4. After reforming the leadership election rules, kick off a new leadership contest, with the aim to have a new leadership team in place to contest the 2024GE.

    The pressure for an early GE would be strong, but I think they really need to separate a caretaker unity leader from choosing who fights the next election, because they're too divided to identify one person to fulfill both roles. Ennobling Cameron and Osborne enables them to do that.

    It can't happen.
    1. Both the PM and CoEx need to be able to answer questions in the House of Commons - it's all to do with democratic accountability
    2. That date clashes with the Coronation. Government, the police, council workers etc will be working flat out already.
    3. That sounds like the old gag about abolishing the people and creating a new one. Tory members are Tory members, and that's either a strength or a weakness depending on your point of view.
    4. Frankly, I think the Great British Public has lost patience with the Conservative Party's internal machinations, and it will not be given time to sort itself out.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    HYUFD said:

    I don't see how Sunak gets the leadership by coronation, which is the only way he can get it. The ERG MPs are bound to put up Braverman or Badenoch or even Boris again against him and then Sunak would likely lose the membership vote again.

    The ONLY viable candidate is one who both most Tory MPs AND most Tory members can support. For me that remains Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is popular in Tory membership polls, backed Truss but is otherwise a competent and safe pair of hands. In a similar vein that was why IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, was the only viable candidate to replace IDS when he lost the VONC of his MPs in 2003, not Ken Clarke for instance.

    It should also be noted that the reason most Tory members picked Truss and most Labour members picked Corbyn is if you join a political party you don't just want to win every general election, most members also want a leader who shifts the country in a more right or leftwing direction respectively. That does not mean members never pick electable leaders though, they do if out of power long enough and they want to win, as Tory members did when they picked Cameron in 2005 or Labour members did when they picked Starmer in 2020

    That's very well put, and also a good analysis of the Labour membership and why we picked Corbyn but then eventually went for Starmer.
  • I was selfishly hoping Truss and Kwarteng would hang on long enough to see through the repeal of the Osborne/Hammond/Javid/Sunak IR35 reform (yes, it's such a popular measure it took four Chancellors to get it onto the books), but it's not worth it now. This is a farce, their time is up, they have to go.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Truss out.
    If we are having Rishi policies, might has well have Rishi too....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Talk among Tories at all levels about whether Truss can survive.

    Senior minister tells me she & Kwarteng “have got one shot to satisfy the markets, with a full u-turn.

    “But my sense is it’s too late for her… she’s introduced herself to the country in the worst way imaginable”

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1580866871707848704
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Driver said:

    On Betfair, the price for Labour Majority has drifted from about 1.95 to 2.08.

    This suggests to me that the Conservative Party is about to do something sensible.

    What Truss is about to do is concede the election.
    She has no choice but to drop measures that won't get through.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Truss out.
    If we are having Rishi policies, might has well have Rishi too....
    If we're having taxes put up, we might as well have Sir Keir.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the costs of Starlink in Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1580827171903635456
    Very interesting statement from @elonmusk re Ukrainian StarLink and how damaging it is for @SpaceX economics.

    Being Ukrainian actually in the topic of StarLinks, I want to tell you some based facts re starlinks in Ukraine...

    ... I admire the actions of SpaceX of enabling StarLink service in Ukraine. It is a true game changer for Ukrainian army in the open fields of no cellular, and long distances not suitable for radios, given the situation is changing quick on the battlefield.

    It’s a game-changer....

    ...Despite that, I have not seen ANY StarLink which was bought by the governments, or by SpaceX. All the Starlinks I have seen / used - were bought either by volunteers like myself, or soldiers put their personal money in.

    The subscription price is also paid out of the pocket...


    While all of the above is probably true, it's likely that the current retail prices in Europe do not begin to reflect the actual cost of providing the service (and would do so only if the number of subscribers were an order of magnitude larger).

    See for example:

    Musk says may need $30 bln to keep Starlink in orbit
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/musk-sees-starlink-winning-500000-customers-next-12-months-2021-06-29/

    The US government/DOD needs to step in and sort out this spat, as the service is absolutely vital to the Ukraine war effort.

    Not seen billion abbreviated to bln rather than bn before.

    Caused me a bit of a comprehension/reading fail - I thought, if he does need a $30 bin to keep starlink in orbit why doesn't he just send one of his flunkies out to a shop to buy one?
    LOL.
    The finances are somewhat obscure, since Starlink is still essentially in startup mode. It only becomes profitable when they achieve much greater scale.
    But it's probably true that it's quite costly (and something of a commercial distraction) for them to supply Ukraine at essentially consumer rates.

    SpaceX is not asking to recoup past expenses, but also cannot fund the existing system indefinitely *and* send several thousand more terminals that have data usage up to 100X greater than typical households. This is unreasonable.
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1580802376973230080

    The more significant point it that the system is absolutely essential to the Ukraine war effort, and the amount of money in dispute is a rounding error in what the west is spending in Ukraine.

    It needs sorting out asap.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    ...
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    kinabalu said:

    Driver said:

    On Betfair, the price for Labour Majority has drifted from about 1.95 to 2.08.

    This suggests to me that the Conservative Party is about to do something sensible.

    What Truss is about to do is concede the election.
    She has no choice but to drop measures that won't get through.
    As may be. By conceding she can't get her agenda through, she concedes the election because it demonstrates that she deserves to lose.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    U-turn on no u-turn coming at a press conference with the PM this afternoon. Could calm the economic chaos, but what about the political fallout? One MP told me this week without tax cuts, “what does she stand for?”. https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1580858992443949058
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    If I was the collective consciousness of Tory MPs this is what I would do.

    1. Beg Cameron and Osborne to return as PM and Chancellor in the Lords. I think the loss of economic confidence is large enough that it justifies such an abnormal response, and they have the credibility to steady the ship. Also, since neither are MPs this would be explicitly a temporary measure until the next election.
    2. Announce that the next election will happen on Thursday 2nd May 2024 - time enough for the new boundaries, but not so desperate as pushing the election all the way to Jan 2025.
    3. Use that time to reform the method for Tory leadership elections, perhaps as part of a major overhaul of Tory party membership.
    4. After reforming the leadership election rules, kick off a new leadership contest, with the aim to have a new leadership team in place to contest the 2024GE.

    The pressure for an early GE would be strong, but I think they really need to separate a caretaker unity leader from choosing who fights the next election, because they're too divided to identify one person to fulfill both roles. Ennobling Cameron and Osborne enables them to do that.

    It can't happen.
    1. Both the PM and CoEx need to be able to answer questions in the House of Commons - it's all to do with democratic accountability
    2. That date clashes with the Coronation. Government, the police, council workers etc will be working flat out already.
    3. That sounds like the old gag about abolishing the people and creating a new one. Tory members are Tory members, and that's either a strength or a weakness depending on your point of view.
    4. Frankly, I think the Great British Public has lost patience with the Conservative Party's internal machinations, and it will not be given time to sort itself out.
    Isn't the coronation in 2023?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Scott_xP said:

    Pretty special flying all the way back from Washington at the last minute for a press conference it turns out you're not allowed to do.
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1580866700001411073

    Surely he has been called back to "voluntarily" resign?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    22m
    10 days ago it was supposed to be that cancelling the 45p rate abolition would make everything suddenly OK in financial mkts - & when they reacted for a day or so, folk said that proved it was so. Now folk say raising corporation tax will do it. When that doesn't work, what then?

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1580862918736089088
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022
    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    EXCLUSIVE:

    I'm told that Kwasi Kwarteng is being sacked as Chancellor as Liz Truss prepares to reverse the mini-Budget

    Not clear who will be replacing him

    Events moving very, very quickly this morning

    No 10 not commenting

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/politics-latest-truss-and-kwarteng-set-to-ditch-corporation-tax-cut-b2zcgtcd2
  • rcs1000 said:

    If I was the collective consciousness of Tory MPs this is what I would do.

    1. Beg Cameron and Osborne to return as PM and Chancellor in the Lords. I think the loss of economic confidence is large enough that it justifies such an abnormal response, and they have the credibility to steady the ship. Also, since neither are MPs this would be explicitly a temporary measure until the next election.
    2. Announce that the next election will happen on Thursday 2nd May 2024 - time enough for the new boundaries, but not so desperate as pushing the election all the way to Jan 2025.
    3. Use that time to reform the method for Tory leadership elections, perhaps as part of a major overhaul of Tory party membership.
    4. After reforming the leadership election rules, kick off a new leadership contest, with the aim to have a new leadership team in place to contest the 2024GE.

    The pressure for an early GE would be strong, but I think they really need to separate a caretaker unity leader from choosing who fights the next election, because they're too divided to identify one person to fulfill both roles. Ennobling Cameron and Osborne enables them to do that.

    It can't happen.
    1. Both the PM and CoEx need to be able to answer questions in the House of Commons - it's all to do with democratic accountability
    2. That date clashes with the Coronation. Government, the police, council workers etc will be working flat out already.
    3. That sounds like the old gag about abolishing the people and creating a new one. Tory members are Tory members, and that's either a strength or a weakness depending on your point of view.
    4. Frankly, I think the Great British Public has lost patience with the Conservative Party's internal machinations, and it will not be given time to sort itself out.
    Isn't the coronation in 2023?
    Sorry, my mistake - but in that case, my point 4 is even stronger!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Completely OT - but if you think things are bad here:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0d3hwl1

    What it felt like to live through the collapse of communism and democracy. A series of films by Adam Curtis.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    They can U-turn if they want.

    The issue now is 'where do they go from here'?

    If their policies have been ridiculed and are in tattered, what does that say about ant principles and any mandate.

    What can they do now?
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    There will be the odd company who relocates for tax reasons.

    They will tend to be companies who would then just as quickly relocate again if someone else offers a better deal. Whilst here they will take aggressive tax minimisation and accounting strategies, use aggressive contracts with workers, suppliers, customers and governments. Who will exploit any weaknesses they can find.

    Basically the type of companies who add little value to society. Whatever they add won't offset the taxes paid by the far more numerous decent and profitable businesses who are already here.
    Ireland would like a word.
    Ireland was a massive outlier: a country offering a 15% tax rate, when almost everyone in Europe was 35+%.

    Now half the countries in Europe are at 20% or less, so your ability to differentiate yourself based on your tax rate is smaller.

    We're going back quite a bit here, Robert, but my recollection is that the EU allowed Ireland's anomolous psoition to exist for a while because it wanted to help its economic development programme. Now that it is in less need of help, the relative differential is quite small so no need to bring it back into line.

    Isn't that how it all happened?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    HYUFD said:

    I don't see how Sunak gets the leadership by coronation, which is the only way he can get it. The ERG MPs are bound to put up Braverman or Badenoch or even Boris again against him and then Sunak would likely lose the membership vote again.

    The ONLY viable candidate is one who both most Tory MPs AND most Tory members can support. For me that remains Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who is popular in Tory membership polls, backed Truss but is otherwise a competent and safe pair of hands. In a similar vein that was why IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Michael Howard, was the only viable candidate to replace IDS when he lost the VONC of his MPs in 2003, not Ken Clarke for instance.

    It should also be noted that the reason most Tory members picked Truss and most Labour members picked Corbyn is if you join a political party you don't just want to win every general election, most members also want a leader who shifts the country in a more right or leftwing direction respectively. That does not mean members never pick electable leaders though, they do if out of power long enough and they want to win, as Tory members did when they picked Cameron in 2005 or Labour members did when they picked Starmer in 2020

    16 is a good price for Wallace then. Why would ERG types prefer him so much to Sunak iyo?
  • Truss 0 - 3 The Markets
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    This is a fascinating live stream - which lettuce will last longer?

    https://twitter.com/dailystar/status/1580830837331087361?s=46&t=eb7sly2C2DAxUJRY1_Ua5w

    You do have to give it to the Daily Star for creativity

    Needs a clock in the frame.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    That is awful. Utterly shamelessly shite. The budget was all hers and she should be the one falling. Her entire leadership bid was based on Kwarteng's budget ideas.

    We need a GE now. Get rid of these people.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Repair work on the damaged Crimea bridge is now scheduled to be completed by July 1, 2023.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    rcs1000 said:

    I can only speak from personal experience, but the rate of corporation tax never made a blind bit of difference to us when we were building our business and making investment decisions.

    If the choice is between two countries which are absolutely identical, and one has a 40% corporate tax rate, and the other a 12.5% one, you choose the country with the 12.5% one.

    But it's never just on tax rate.

    What is the overall business environment like? The labour pool and wages? The social taxes? The airport? The ease of getting visas for temporary staff? The legal system?

    There are lots of ways to make your country attractive to business investment apart from tax rate.
    Like having a close and friendly trading relationship with your biggest export market for example? Oh wait.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCLUSIVE:

    I'm told that Kwasi Kwarteng is being sacked as Chancellor as Liz Truss prepares to reverse the mini-Budget

    Not clear who will be replacing him

    Events moving very, very quickly this morning

    No 10 not commenting

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/politics-latest-truss-and-kwarteng-set-to-ditch-corporation-tax-cut-b2zcgtcd2

    Come back Rishi...all is forgiven!

    (probably not!).

    Now the anger will be from her backbenchers and the true believers. She'll be hated by them, and everyone will think shes weak and not up to it.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Nigelb said:

    LOL.
    The finances are somewhat obscure, since Starlink is still essentially in startup mode. It only becomes profitable when they achieve much greater scale.
    But it's probably true that it's quite costly (and something of a commercial distraction) for them to supply Ukraine at essentially consumer rates.

    SpaceX is not asking to recoup past expenses, but also cannot fund the existing system indefinitely *and* send several thousand more terminals that have data usage up to 100X greater than typical households. This is unreasonable.
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1580802376973230080

    The more significant point it that the system is absolutely essential to the Ukraine war effort, and the amount of money in dispute is a rounding error in what the west is spending in Ukraine.

    It needs sorting out asap.

    If the history of these sort of services is a guide it will only become profitable when it goes bust and someone else gets the assets for a song.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    “I believe you have a funny story to tell us Kwasi. Is it true you were Chancellor of the Exchequer for about a month?”


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    There will be the odd company who relocates for tax reasons.

    They will tend to be companies who would then just as quickly relocate again if someone else offers a better deal. Whilst here they will take aggressive tax minimisation and accounting strategies, use aggressive contracts with workers, suppliers, customers and governments. Who will exploit any weaknesses they can find.

    Basically the type of companies who add little value to society. Whatever they add won't offset the taxes paid by the far more numerous decent and profitable businesses who are already here.
    Ireland would like a word.
    Excellent example.

    Google in Ireland was supposed to pay 12.5%. Instead they used the Double Irish Dutch Sandwich to pay just 2.4% in Ireland by aggressively moving revenue to Bermuda and other tax havens.
    Apple pay just 0.4%, competing with Ireland's tax rates will just impoverish us all and allow companies to not pay their fair share. What we should do is stop treating with these parasite economies and make it impossible for UK profits to be offshored and taxed elsewhere.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Is that the shortest stint as Chancellor oE?
    Not including any emergency stop gap chancellors
  • They can U-turn if they want.

    The issue now is 'where do they go from here'?

    If their policies have been ridiculed and are in tattered, what does that say about ant principles and any mandate.

    What can they do now?

    Dura Ace can perhaps confirm but if you U-Turn too often and too fast, the wheels are likely to come off.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I can only speak from personal experience, but the rate of corporation tax never made a blind bit of difference to us when we were building our business and making investment decisions.

    If the choice is between two countries which are absolutely identical, and one has a 40% corporate tax rate, and the other a 12.5% one, you choose the country with the 12.5% one.

    But it's never just on tax rate.

    What is the overall business environment like? The labour pool and wages? The social taxes? The airport? The ease of getting visas for temporary staff? The legal system?

    There are lots of ways to make your country attractive to business investment apart from tax rate.

    Also, the vast majority of start-ups don't get a choice of country. If you want to build an entrepreneurial, disruptive bedrock of companies, then as long as your Corporation Tax is not punitive, you should be focusing on a lot of other stuff instead.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Sacking Kwasi?

    That is pathetic. I am sacking my chancellor for delivering the budget that I have shouted from the rooftops as being a fantastic new direction for my government and integral to our growth plans.
This discussion has been closed.