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Rishi back as betting favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,456
    rcs1000 said:

    I can only speak from personal experience, but the rate of corporation tax never made a blind bit of difference to us when we were building our business and making investment decisions.

    If the choice is between two countries which are absolutely identical, and one has a 40% corporate tax rate, and the other a 12.5% one, you choose the country with the 12.5% one.

    But it's never just on tax rate.

    What is the overall business environment like? The labour pool and wages? The social taxes? The airport? The ease of getting visas for temporary staff? The legal system?

    There are lots of ways to make your country attractive to business investment apart from tax rate.
    Exactly. These things are never simple.
  • TOPPING said:

    Sacking Kwasi?

    That is pathetic. I am sacking my chancellor for delivering the budget that I have shouted from the rooftops as being a fantastic new direction for my government and integral to our growth plans.

    What did you expect?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Get those letters in to the 1922.

    She has to go.

  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨Exclusive: Corporation Tax will **rise** to 25% from 19% this April, Liz Truss will announce at 2pm press conference today.

    A huge climb down. Sticking to Rishi Sunak’s original plan. Removes central plank of her leadership bid. More here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/14/politics-latest-news-kwasi-kwarteng-latest-liz-truss-mini-budget/

    Ironically, since Rishi's plan did include tax allowances for research and investment, this is more likely to produce the growth Truss craves. Whether in time to save her job...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    It's the G7 + Spain.

    That doesn't sound very selective to me.
    it is indeed selective - since it eliminates small tax havens which appear to be @Luckyguy1983 's favoured model for economic policy.
    Also the headline rates can be very deceptive. Only a clown, without access to vaguely competent lawyer and accountant, pays anything like the full US rate, for example.
    Of course, and the US to some extent has its own internal tax havens.

    The UK has a fair number of now foreign owned, large fairly low growth companies (utilities, for example), and gifting them low tax rates so that they can remit greater dividends overseas is not a very smart policy. And that bit of your proposed corporate tax cut certainly isn't going to grow the economy.
    Borrowing money to do so is nuts.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    #DearOhDear is trending on the Twitter
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    Sacking Kwasi?

    That is pathetic. I am sacking my chancellor for delivering the budget that I have shouted from the rooftops as being a fantastic new direction for my government and integral to our growth plans.

    What did you expect?
    That is also true.
  • Bringing Boris back as chancellor might be a lark.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    edited October 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.
    It has to be Nads...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Scott_xP said:

    #DearOhDear is trending on the Twitter

    HM speaks for the nation.
  • Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    1.33??
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    Scott_xP said:

    #DearOhDear is trending on the Twitter

    Starmer should probably use that phrase at the next PMQs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    #DearOhDear is trending on the Twitter

    HM speaks for the nation.
    It is interesting how King Charles seems to be hitting all the right notes. And Truss is hitting all the wrong ones.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Scott_xP said:

    Talk among Tories at all levels about whether Truss can survive.

    Senior minister tells me she & Kwarteng “have got one shot to satisfy the markets, with a full u-turn.

    “But my sense is it’s too late for her… she’s introduced herself to the country in the worst way imaginable”

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1580866871707848704


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    Liz Truss has gone mad.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    It's the G7 + Spain.

    That doesn't sound very selective to me.
    it is indeed selective - since it eliminates small tax havens which appear to be @Luckyguy1983 's favoured model for economic policy.
    Also the headline rates can be very deceptive. Only a clown, without access to vaguely competent lawyer and accountant, pays anything like the full US rate, for example.
    Of course, and the US to some extent has its own internal tax havens.

    The UK has a fair number of now foreign owned, large fairly low growth companies (utilities, for example), and gifting them low tax rates so that they can remit greater dividends overseas is not a very smart policy. And that bit of your proposed corporate tax cut certainly isn't going to grow the economy.
    Borrowing money to do so is nuts.
    Raise the rates. If they want low Corp tax, give them huge allowances for investment in productivity - equipment and real training.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723

    Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?

    In office, but not in power.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    1.33??
    Yes quite
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    edited October 2022
    When was the last time there were 4 CoEs in one year? Assuming that one of the first two is not reinstated.

    Edited!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Just checked my lay of Kwarteng for surviving 2022. Only -£12.40/+£4 fortunately.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?

    In office, but not in power.
    Tbh I’m loving Kwartengs jacket at the airport today. Cool coat. 😍
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    What the fuck is going on
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    David Clark 🇺🇦
    @David_K_Clark
    ·
    7m
    Replying to
    @DPJHodges
    Of course none of this is a surprise to those of us who said she was completely unfit for office. 😉

    https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1580870402733379584
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Completely offtopic, but this is shocking:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/oct/13/ann-king-video-abuse-reigate-grange-care-home-surrey

    I would have thought that paying a fortune for a care home would protect against this kind of thing - you'd imagine the care staff would be on decent salaries and actually picked for wanting to do the job and having some ability to do it, but apparently not.
  • What the fuck is going on

    You are the Prime Minister AICMFP.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Labours heirarchy of racism costs it another Asian dominated seat

    North Evington (Leicester) council by-election result:

    CON: 49.6% (+32.7)
    GRN: 25.8% (+20.0)
    LAB: 22.5% (-49.8)
    LDEM: 1.4% (-3.5)
    TUSC: 0.6% (+0.6)

    Votes cast: 6,934

    Conservative GAIN from Labour.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215

    What the fuck is going on

    Kwarteng out Javid in?

    Or could it be Rees-Mogg!?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.
  • On Betfair, the price for Labour Majority has drifted from about 1.95 to 2.08.

    This suggests to me that the Conservative Party is about to do something sensible.

    Like remove Truss as PM?
    Well, the bar is set about as low as it goes, but that would certainly clear it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    It's the G7 + Spain.

    That doesn't sound very selective to me.
    it is indeed selective - since it eliminates small tax havens which appear to be @Luckyguy1983 's favoured model for economic policy.
    Also the headline rates can be very deceptive. Only a clown, without access to vaguely competent lawyer and accountant, pays anything like the full US rate, for example.
    Of course, and the US to some extent has its own internal tax havens.

    The UK has a fair number of now foreign owned, large fairly low growth companies (utilities, for example), and gifting them low tax rates so that they can remit greater dividends overseas is not a very smart policy. And that bit of your proposed corporate tax cut certainly isn't going to grow the economy.
    Borrowing money to do so is nuts.
    Raise the rates. If they want low Corp tax, give them huge allowances for investment in productivity - equipment and real training.
    Or point them in the direction of Belize, which is somewhat likelier.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Looks like a deal to me, Kwarteng & Corp Tax reversal for Truss to stay in post.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    They can U-turn if they want.

    The issue now is 'where do they go from here'?

    If their policies have been ridiculed and are in tattered, what does that say about ant principles and any mandate.

    What can they do now?

    Dura Ace can perhaps confirm but if you U-Turn too often and too fast, the wheels are likely to come off.
    ABS doesn't work in reverse on a surprisingly large number of cars so bang limiter in reverse, then full lock while max effort braking. Very, very quick u turn and a gratifyingly large cloud of smoke. Best mastered in hire cars without spouse in the passenger seat (voice of experience).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Kwasi Kwarteng’s favourability ratings in our September tracker were:

    Favourable 15%
    Unfavourable 27%
    Neutral 27%
    Don’t know 31%
    NET Favourability -12

    The @SavantaComRes team have given me a 3pm deadline to decide whether to include him in October's or not.
    https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1580872458508255232
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    This is officially clown world...

    It's just getting more and more strange and stupid by the day.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Scott_xP said:

    #DearOhDear is trending on the Twitter

    Starmer should probably use that phrase at the next PMQs.
    Hmmm.. I would be tempted. But that would be politicising a comment by the King. Why take the risk of creating such a row? It's not as if Starmer is exactly short of opportunities for attacking the government.

    Additionally, he could go for "Serious politics" - #DearOhDear sounds like a Boris thing.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    Scott_xP said:

    Talk among Tories at all levels about whether Truss can survive.

    Senior minister tells me she & Kwarteng “have got one shot to satisfy the markets, with a full u-turn.

    “But my sense is it’s too late for her… she’s introduced herself to the country in the worst way imaginable”

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1580866871707848704


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    Liz Truss has gone mad.
    That implies that she was sane at some point.
  • Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.

    Something has cheered the markets up.

    It may be a while before the polls also respond though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Very interesting statement from @elonmusk re Ukrainian StarLink and how damaging it is for @SpaceX economics.

    Being Ukrainian actually in the topic of StarLinks, I want to tell you some based facts re starlinks in Ukraine.🧵


    https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1580827171903635456?s=20&t=MkaXBQY-DL9hkbdQ5rgJfA
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like a deal to me, Kwarteng & Corp Tax reversal for Truss to stay in post.

    Wont work imho.

    Too far gone.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2022

    Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.

    The trouble is that it may not fully calm the markets either. Once confidence has been lost, it's extremely hard to regain it.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.

    Yep thats the problem. Truss said all these policies well before KK was CoE.

    He's the fall guy, and takes some of the blame, but its her policies which he carried out.

    She's the problem, not him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Stocky said:

    What the fuck is going on

    Kwarteng out Javid in?

    Or could it be Rees-Mogg!?
    Nadine's free.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The pitch is likely to be that the policies were right, but KamiKwaze didn't sell them well enough...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Talk among Tories at all levels about whether Truss can survive.

    Senior minister tells me she & Kwarteng “have got one shot to satisfy the markets, with a full u-turn.

    “But my sense is it’s too late for her… she’s introduced herself to the country in the worst way imaginable”

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1580866871707848704


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    6m
    Liz Truss has gone mad.
    That implies that she was sane at some point.
    A full u turn is the worst of all possible worlds.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like a deal to me, Kwarteng & Corp Tax reversal for Truss to stay in post.

    Indeed Kwasi is gone, the CT is going back to 25%. But Liz has to bear responsibility for this and she should step down. But she won't. Not today...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,456


    I need to mop up the coffee I spat out
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I hear Jeremy Hunt is top of Truss’s list to be her new Chancellor. Grey beard unity candidate, reaches out to the party left. Let’s see if he agrees.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580872968225185796
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Dura_Ace said:

    They can U-turn if they want.

    The issue now is 'where do they go from here'?

    If their policies have been ridiculed and are in tattered, what does that say about ant principles and any mandate.

    What can they do now?

    Dura Ace can perhaps confirm but if you U-Turn too often and too fast, the wheels are likely to come off.
    ABS doesn't work in reverse on a surprisingly large number of cars so bang limiter in reverse, then full lock while max effort braking. Very, very quick u turn and a gratifyingly large cloud of smoke. Best mastered in hire cars without spouse in the passenger seat (voice of experience).
    Alternatively, a number of UK military vehicles from the 1950s have a reversing lever. Instead of reverse as a separate gear, this reverses the whole gear box. In the case of the Alvis Saracen, you can be trundling along in 4th gear (out of 6), take your foot off the gas. Then select reverse. and put your foot down. Only recommended if you own the vehicle and are not shy of taking it to bits, though.
  • Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?

    In office, but not in power.
    Tbh I’m loving Kwartengs jacket at the airport today. Cool coat. 😍
    Very, and it hides the handcuffs nicely.
  • The year of four Chancellors.
  • Repair work on the damaged Crimea bridge is now scheduled to be completed by July 1, 2023.

    What about on the damaged Truss?

    Or is that beyond repair?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like a deal to me, Kwarteng & Corp Tax reversal for Truss to stay in post.

    Indeed Kwasi is gone, the CT is going back to 25%. But Liz has to bear responsibility for this and she should step down. But she won't. Not today...
    Just need her to stay on till 2023.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,456
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like a deal to me, Kwarteng & Corp Tax reversal for Truss to stay in post.

    LTICIPM
  • Labours heirarchy of racism costs it another Asian dominated seat

    North Evington (Leicester) council by-election result:

    CON: 49.6% (+32.7)
    GRN: 25.8% (+20.0)
    LAB: 22.5% (-49.8)
    LDEM: 1.4% (-3.5)
    TUSC: 0.6% (+0.6)

    Votes cast: 6,934

    Conservative GAIN from Labour.

    I think that's more of an anti-BJP vote - the Labour candidate was reported to be a bit too Narendra Modi-ish for some voters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Scott_xP said:

    I hear Jeremy Hunt is top of Truss’s list to be her new Chancellor. Grey beard unity candidate, reaches out to the party left. Let’s see if he agrees.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580872968225185796

    He would be mad. Literally mad to saddle himself to this drowning wreck.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    LOL.
    The finances are somewhat obscure, since Starlink is still essentially in startup mode. It only becomes profitable when they achieve much greater scale.
    But it's probably true that it's quite costly (and something of a commercial distraction) for them to supply Ukraine at essentially consumer rates.

    SpaceX is not asking to recoup past expenses, but also cannot fund the existing system indefinitely *and* send several thousand more terminals that have data usage up to 100X greater than typical households. This is unreasonable.
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1580802376973230080

    The more significant point it that the system is absolutely essential to the Ukraine war effort, and the amount of money in dispute is a rounding error in what the west is spending in Ukraine.

    It needs sorting out asap.

    If the history of these sort of services is a guide it will only become profitable when it goes bust and someone else gets the assets for a song.
    The future profitability I think depends to quite a large extent on his getting the big rocket working, in order to be able to put larger constellation satellites (than the existing hardware) in orbit cheaply.
    He's unlikely to have any really serious competition until somewhen else gets reusable rockets working reliably. And the service is an excellent one for quite a large market segment.

    All that is tangential to Ukraine, of course.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,824

    Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.

    The trouble is that it may not fully calm the markets either. Once confidence has been lost, it's extremely hard to regain it.
    Yes, only a complete change of leadership and direction will do it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Scott_xP said:

    The pitch is likely to be that the policies were right, but KamiKwaze didn't sell them well enough...


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Will Liz Truss line be:

    a) Kwasi didn’t show her his budget
    b) He showed her a pretend budget
    c) He showed her the actual budget, she said “this is a mistake”, and he replied “shut up you fool!”
    d) He showed her the actual budget, she said “great” then fell and hit her head
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,456

    Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.

    The trouble is that it may not fully calm the markets either. Once confidence has been lost, it's extremely hard to regain it.
    Probably needs a new leader fixated on running a budget surplus for that now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    TOPPING said:

    Sacking Kwasi?

    That is pathetic. I am sacking my chancellor for delivering the budget that I have shouted from the rooftops as being a fantastic new direction for my government and integral to our growth plans.

    To me it signifies she's prepared to be a figurehead PM. The trouble with this is a figurehead needs good PR skills to justify their existence.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Also, Truss apparently came very close to sacking her Chief Whip Wendy Morton yesterday. Only saved by the Deputy PM Therese Coffey’s intervention.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580873391371739136
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Just put a load more on Truss to exit this year.

    My contact wrt Kwasi: "Won't save her".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    What the fuck is going on

    Armando Iannucci is relaunching his career as a sober documentary maker.
  • Stocky said:

    What the fuck is going on

    Kwarteng out Javid in?

    Or could it be Rees-Mogg!?
    Nadine's free.

    I'm not doing a lot next week either.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    TOPPING said:

    Sacking Kwasi?

    That is pathetic. I am sacking my chancellor for delivering the budget that I have shouted from the rooftops as being a fantastic new direction for my government and integral to our growth plans.

    What did you expect?
    What would have been more expedient politically (assuming she is sacking him) is a voluntary resignation, or hanging on to a bigger reshuffle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    It's the G7 + Spain.

    That doesn't sound very selective to me.
    it is indeed selective - since it eliminates small tax havens which appear to be @Luckyguy1983 's favoured model for economic policy.
    Also the headline rates can be very deceptive. Only a clown, without access to vaguely competent lawyer and accountant, pays anything like the full US rate, for example.
    Of course, and the US to some extent has its own internal tax havens.

    The UK has a fair number of now foreign owned, large fairly low growth companies (utilities, for example), and gifting them low tax rates so that they can remit greater dividends overseas is not a very smart policy. And that bit of your proposed corporate tax cut certainly isn't going to grow the economy.
    Borrowing money to do so is nuts.
    Raise the rates. If they want low Corp tax, give them huge allowances for investment in productivity - equipment and real training.
    Which is to an extent what Sunak was proposing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Oh dear, Comrade Greg Hands, who was on Today this morning demonstrating that he had been successfully re-educated to recant the things he said when he was a Rishi supporter, is going to have to be re-re-educated.

    Greg Hands now gets to drive the clown car for the day.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    LOL.
    The finances are somewhat obscure, since Starlink is still essentially in startup mode. It only becomes profitable when they achieve much greater scale.
    But it's probably true that it's quite costly (and something of a commercial distraction) for them to supply Ukraine at essentially consumer rates.

    SpaceX is not asking to recoup past expenses, but also cannot fund the existing system indefinitely *and* send several thousand more terminals that have data usage up to 100X greater than typical households. This is unreasonable.
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1580802376973230080

    The more significant point it that the system is absolutely essential to the Ukraine war effort, and the amount of money in dispute is a rounding error in what the west is spending in Ukraine.

    It needs sorting out asap.

    If the history of these sort of services is a guide it will only become profitable when it goes bust and someone else gets the assets for a song.
    The future profitability I think depends to quite a large extent on his getting the big rocket working, in order to be able to put larger constellation satellites (than the existing hardware) in orbit cheaply.
    He's unlikely to have any really serious competition until somewhen else gets reusable rockets working reliably. And the service is an excellent one for quite a large market segment.

    All that is tangential to Ukraine, of course.
    OneWeb has a fraction of the capacity, but is in the early stages of going into operation.

    Bezos has bought virtually all the non-SpaceX launches for years to come, to loft his constellation. Except he hasn't produced a single satellite yet. Given the issues that SpaceX/Starlink had with getting the production line going for their satellites - simply throwing money at it is unlikely to be successful. Much as Bezos orbital launch plans have stagnated, despite vast sums of money expended.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Stocky said:

    What the fuck is going on

    Kwarteng out Javid in?

    Or could it be Rees-Mogg!?
    Nadine's free.

    I'm not doing a lot next week either.
    Ooft, like a milf do you?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?

    In office, but not in power.
    Tbh I’m loving Kwartengs jacket at the airport today. Cool coat. 😍
    Very, and it hides the handcuffs nicely.
    Not making much effort though. Who's the dude in the top hat behind him? He's made an effort, at least (and looks all the happier for it)

    image
  • Scott_xP said:

    I hear Jeremy Hunt is top of Truss’s list to be her new Chancellor. Grey beard unity candidate, reaches out to the party left. Let’s see if he agrees.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580872968225185796

    He would be mad. Literally mad to saddle himself to this drowning wreck.

    Not sure. It gets Hunt's name in the frame for the next leadership contest, and the Chancellor's salary for a month or so.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The pitch is likely to be that the policies were right, but KamiKwaze didn't sell them well enough...


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Will Liz Truss line be:

    a) Kwasi didn’t show her his budget
    b) He showed her a pretend budget
    c) He showed her the actual budget, she said “this is a mistake”, and he replied “shut up you fool!”
    d) He showed her the actual budget, she said “great” then fell and hit her head
    e) My energy support package, the most generous in Europe, means a typical bill will be capped at £2500 this year.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    If you think about it - either they were going to face it down because that is what senior politicians do but ironically, by sacking Kwasi she has shown that senior politicians can actually be got rid of.

    She herself has broken the spell of infallibility of her own government and of herself.

    She's out. Or will be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Scott_xP said:

    Also, Truss apparently came very close to sacking her Chief Whip Wendy Morton yesterday. Only saved by the Deputy PM Therese Coffey’s intervention.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580873391371739136

    Yeh, that'll be the problem. The Whip's office. LOL.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072

    Oh dear, Comrade Greg Hands, who was on Today this morning demonstrating that he had been successfully re-educated to recant the things he said when he was a Rishi supporter, is going to have to be re-re-educated.

    He's had plenty of experience under Boris defending the indefensible.
    Shouldn't be a problem.
  • eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Is that the shortest stint as Chancellor oE?
    Not including any emergency stop gap chancellors
    I believe the shortest stint was the unfortunate George Canning, who held the role alongside being shortest serving PM (it wasn't that uncommon to hold both posts at the time).

    He may be relieved of both his records shortly.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    Scott_xP said:

    The pitch is likely to be that the policies were right, but KamiKwaze didn't sell them well enough...


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Will Liz Truss line be:

    a) Kwasi didn’t show her his budget
    b) He showed her a pretend budget
    c) He showed her the actual budget, she said “this is a mistake”, and he replied “shut up you fool!”
    d) He showed her the actual budget, she said “great” then fell and hit her head
    e) Kwasi's sacking is all Putin's fault and isn't the price cap great.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Selebian said:

    Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?

    In office, but not in power.
    Tbh I’m loving Kwartengs jacket at the airport today. Cool coat. 😍
    Very, and it hides the handcuffs nicely.
    Not making much effort though. Who's the dude in the top hat behind him? He's made an effort, at least (and looks all the happier for it)

    image
    Bonjour...
  • I have been in town this am and understand Truss is to hold a news conference at 2.00pm

    Is Kwarteng getting sacked
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Maybe the IT reduction from 20% to 19% goes too? Maybe worth £5bn a year to the Treasury? Liz can say 'we have reversed the NI increase and we are helping you with energy'.

    If there are to be more reversals of the mini budget then its best to get them over with in one go!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    edited October 2022

    Labours heirarchy of racism costs it another Asian dominated seat

    North Evington (Leicester) council by-election result:

    CON: 49.6% (+32.7)
    GRN: 25.8% (+20.0)
    LAB: 22.5% (-49.8)
    LDEM: 1.4% (-3.5)
    TUSC: 0.6% (+0.6)

    Votes cast: 6,934

    Conservative GAIN from Labour.

    I think that's more of an anti-BJP vote - the Labour candidate was reported to be a bit too Narendra Modi-ish for some voters.
    An Indian friend showed me a picture of the RSS marching. They were all wearing black shorts. I laughed so hard, that it took several minutes before I could explain why it was so brilliant.

    image
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.

    I think that, if it creates the sense that the moment of crisis has passed, then you'd see a slow drift back to the Tories as people's anger and panic cooled.

    However, it also depends as to what other events occur over the next several weeks. Plenty more opportunity to make mistakes and upset the voters again.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    I have been in town this am and understand Truss is to hold a news conference at 2.00pm

    Is Kwarteng getting sacked

    Looks like it!
  • Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.

    The trouble is that it may not fully calm the markets either. Once confidence has been lost, it's extremely hard to regain it.
    Not sure that's right, Richard.

    My understanding is that it was the lack of numbers that spooked the markets. Tax cuts were proposed without any plan to show how they were being paid for unless it was just more debt. I think once the city can see some credible numbers it will be calmed, even if doesn't particularly like the policies. As ever, it can cope with bad news, or good news, but it cannot cope with surprises and uncertainty.

    Remove the uncertainty, and stability returns.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    The year of four Chancellors.

    At least two of whom were also chancers (status of third TBC)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Well if Kwasi Kwarteng is off, nothing could demonstrate the vitality of Liz Truss's premiership better than if she were to appoint the dessicated husk that is John Redwood as her new Chancellor of the Exchequer.
    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1580874238222684160
  • TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?

    In office, but not in power.
    Tbh I’m loving Kwartengs jacket at the airport today. Cool coat. 😍
    Very, and it hides the handcuffs nicely.
    Not making much effort though. Who's the dude in the top hat behind him? He's made an effort, at least (and looks all the happier for it)

    image
    Bonjour...
    I found it quite amusing that he seems to have come from the toilets which is much like his budget
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Was there ever an explanation as to why the tax cut package had to be announced a few weeks ago, and not at the budget where these sort of things should be announced?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    TOPPING said:

    If you think about it - either they were going to face it down because that is what senior politicians do but ironically, by sacking Kwasi she has shown that senior politicians can actually be got rid of.

    She herself has broken the spell of infallibility of her own government and of herself.

    She's out. Or will be.

    Spell of infallibility??
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Reports of Kwarteng sacking have not eased backbench fury at Liz Truss.

    Tory MP to @SamCoatesSky: "The idea that the Prime Minister can just scapegoat her Chancellor and move on is deluded. This is her vision. She signed off on every detail and she defended it"


    https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1580874249920618496
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    It's the G7 + Spain.

    That doesn't sound very selective to me.
    it is indeed selective - since it eliminates small tax havens which appear to be @Luckyguy1983 's favoured model for economic policy.
    Also the headline rates can be very deceptive. Only a clown, without access to vaguely competent lawyer and accountant, pays anything like the full US rate, for example.
    Of course, and the US to some extent has its own internal tax havens.

    The UK has a fair number of now foreign owned, large fairly low growth companies (utilities, for example), and gifting them low tax rates so that they can remit greater dividends overseas is not a very smart policy. And that bit of your proposed corporate tax cut certainly isn't going to grow the economy.
    Borrowing money to do so is nuts.
    Raise the rates. If they want low Corp tax, give them huge allowances for investment in productivity - equipment and real training.
    Which is to an extent what Sunak was proposing.
    Higher corporation tax in other countries is a Biden demand. He demanded it clearly and unequivocally when he took office, and his Ministers pushed it in their visits to the UK and presumably elsewhere. We have ample evidence that the US is seeking to dictate not just our foreign policy but our domestic policy too; it is deeply problematical and it will need to be tackled (a challenge that makes Brexit look like a cake walk).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Scott_xP said:

    Also, Truss apparently came very close to sacking her Chief Whip Wendy Morton yesterday. Only saved by the Deputy PM Therese Coffey’s intervention.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580873391371739136

    Coincidentally, listening to Happy House, Siouxie and the Banshees....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Maybe the IT reduction from 20% to 19% goes too? Maybe worth £5bn a year to the Treasury? Liz can say 'we have reversed the NI increase and we are helping you with energy'.

    If there are to be more reversals of the mini budget then its best to get them over with in one go!

    That one was baked in, so it'll probably stay. The only change on it is it was b/f a year.
  • The year of four Chancellors.

    ... or chaos with Ed Miliband.
  • Scott_xP said:

    I hear Jeremy Hunt is top of Truss’s list to be her new Chancellor. Grey beard unity candidate, reaches out to the party left. Let’s see if he agrees.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580872968225185796

    He would be mad. Literally mad to saddle himself to this drowning wreck.

    Not sure. It gets Hunt's name in the frame for the next leadership contest, and the Chancellor's salary for a month or so.
    The first point is fine, but Jeremy Hunt is rich as Croesus mainly due to his involvement in Hotcourses. He was the richest cabinet member at one time. So the money is chump change.
  • RobD said:

    Was there ever an explanation as to why the tax cut package had to be announced a few weeks ago, and not at the budget where these sort of things should be announced?

    To avoid the OBR audit.
This discussion has been closed.