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Rishi back as betting favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
    I'm seeing 2.2 Javid and 2.3 Clarke.

    Staying well out myself. Can't get a bead on this at all. Incredible situation! The usual "clusterfucks" and "omnishambles" are not quite up to it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723

    Scott_xP said:

    The pitch is likely to be that the policies were right, but KamiKwaze didn't sell them well enough...


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    Will Liz Truss line be:

    a) Kwasi didn’t show her his budget
    b) He showed her a pretend budget
    c) He showed her the actual budget, she said “this is a mistake”, and he replied “shut up you fool!”
    d) He showed her the actual budget, she said “great” then fell and hit her head
    e) My energy support package, the most generous in Europe, means a typical bill will be capped at £2500 this year.
    She usually leaves the word 'typical' out though.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    Labours heirarchy of racism costs it another Asian dominated seat

    North Evington (Leicester) council by-election result:

    CON: 49.6% (+32.7)
    GRN: 25.8% (+20.0)
    LAB: 22.5% (-49.8)
    LDEM: 1.4% (-3.5)
    TUSC: 0.6% (+0.6)

    Votes cast: 6,934

    Conservative GAIN from Labour.

    Fascist sympathiser defeated.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Scott_xP said:

    Also, Truss apparently came very close to sacking her Chief Whip Wendy Morton yesterday. Only saved by the Deputy PM Therese Coffey’s intervention.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580873391371739136

    Talk about irrelevant distractions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
    I'm seeing 2.2 Javid and 2.3 Clarke.

    Staying well out myself. Can't get a bead on this at all. Incredible situation! The usual "clusterfucks" and "omnishambles" are not quite up to it.
    Simon Clarke would be a horrendous horrendous appointment. Sacks her chancellor and doesn't even reach out to the other factions.
    The absolute worst.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As usual, John Redood hits the nail on the head:

    "The think tanks and forecasters who want taxes up tell us the deficit will otherwise be too big. If they have their way they will put us into a longer and deeper downturn which will mean a higher deficit, not a lower.

    Over the last 2 years the OBR has massively over forecast the budget deficit and used these wrong forecasts to push a Chancellor into higher taxes. More accurate forecasting would conclude now that a lower business tax rate would be better for growth and for total tax revenue."

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/#:~:text=The think tanks,total tax revenue.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/10/14/taxing-times-2/

    Ummm:

    The last two decades has seen corporate tax rates slashed around the world. It has also seen the slowest GDP growth in the post WW2 era.

    It is by no means clear that there is any correlation between corporate tax rates and growth.
    Here you go...

    Very selective selection.
    It's the G7 + Spain.

    That doesn't sound very selective to me.
    it is indeed selective - since it eliminates small tax havens which appear to be @Luckyguy1983 's favoured model for economic policy.
    Also the headline rates can be very deceptive. Only a clown, without access to vaguely competent lawyer and accountant, pays anything like the full US rate, for example.
    Of course, and the US to some extent has its own internal tax havens.

    The UK has a fair number of now foreign owned, large fairly low growth companies (utilities, for example), and gifting them low tax rates so that they can remit greater dividends overseas is not a very smart policy. And that bit of your proposed corporate tax cut certainly isn't going to grow the economy.
    Borrowing money to do so is nuts.
    Raise the rates. If they want low Corp tax, give them huge allowances for investment in productivity - equipment and real training.
    Which is to an extent what Sunak was proposing.
    Higher corporation tax in other countries is a Biden demand. He demanded it clearly and unequivocally when he took office, and his Ministers pushed it in their visits to the UK and presumably elsewhere. We have ample evidence that the US is seeking to dictate not just our foreign policy but our domestic policy too; it is deeply problematical and it will need to be tackled (a challenge that makes Brexit look like a cake walk).
    Sure.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Scott_xP said:

    Well if Kwasi Kwarteng is off, nothing could demonstrate the vitality of Liz Truss's premiership better than if she were to appoint the dessicated husk that is John Redwood as her new Chancellor of the Exchequer.
    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1580874238222684160

    The guy which has been defending these policies to the hilt???

    Sure..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Scott_xP said:

    I hear Jeremy Hunt is top of Truss’s list to be her new Chancellor. Grey beard unity candidate, reaches out to the party left. Let’s see if he agrees.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580872968225185796

    He would be mad. Literally mad to saddle himself to this drowning wreck.

    The way to force her to resign is if nobody will take the job of Chancellor....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    Scott_xP said:

    The pitch is likely to be that the policies were right, but KamiKwaze didn't sell them well enough...

    What about "he's become a distraction"?

    That's always worth a go.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
    I'm seeing 2.2 Javid and 2.3 Clarke.

    Staying well out myself. Can't get a bead on this at all. Incredible situation! The usual "clusterfucks" and "omnishambles" are not quite up to it.
    Yes, Javid has drifted but still fav. over Clarke. Can't see any odds for Hunt.

  • Not sure that's right, Richard.

    My understanding is that it was the lack of numbers that spooked the markets. Tax cuts were proposed without any plan to show how they were being paid for unless it was just more debt. I think once the city can see some credible numbers it will be calmed, even if doesn't particularly like the policies. As ever, it can cope with bad news, or good news, but it cannot cope with surprises and uncertainty.

    Remove the uncertainty, and stability returns.

    Certainly all that will help, but the plans are going to be looked at with greater scepticism than usual. They'll need to be assured that the numbers stack up, that the plans are politically deliverable, and that the government is committed to them and won't do something bonkers again. The big problem is that, starting from here, it's very hard to see how the first two of those are going to be compatible.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Selebian said:

    Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?

    In office, but not in power.
    Tbh I’m loving Kwartengs jacket at the airport today. Cool coat. 😍
    Very, and it hides the handcuffs nicely.
    Not making much effort though. Who's the dude in the top hat behind him? He's made an effort, at least (and looks all the happier for it)

    img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/480/cpsprodpb/F5C3/production/_127151926_8c26ebe81097878e7f068073886162873b0dfd63.jpg" />
    The top hat is probably the doorman at the 1st class suite.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    In other news. Protestors getting mad about the use of oil in paintings.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/14/just-stop-oil-activists-throw-soup-van-goghs-sunflowers-painting/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    The year of four Chancellors.

    We want five!
  • Lol she sacks Kwasi? All he did was just try and deliver her crazy leadership promises.

    Why doesn't she just sack herself or in old language resign?

    If the Tory party has made any sort of deal with the PM then they are ALL going down together. Get some bottle and fire her into space.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    The year of four Chancellors.

    We want five!
    You'll get them....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    On the basis of Truss making horrendous decisions it'll probably be Clarke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
    I'm seeing 2.2 Javid and 2.3 Clarke.

    Staying well out myself. Can't get a bead on this at all. Incredible situation! The usual "clusterfucks" and "omnishambles" are not quite up to it.
    Simon Clarke would be a horrendous horrendous appointment. Sacks her chancellor and doesn't even reach out to the other factions.
    The absolute worst.
    Plus he's an idiot.
  • Selebian said:

    Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?

    In office, but not in power.
    Tbh I’m loving Kwartengs jacket at the airport today. Cool coat. 😍
    Very, and it hides the handcuffs nicely.
    Not making much effort though. Who's the dude in the top hat behind him? He's made an effort, at least (and looks all the happier for it)

    image
    That is the ghost of Screaming Lord Sutch, much amused by the goings on.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Scott_xP said:

    I hear Jeremy Hunt is top of Truss’s list to be her new Chancellor. Grey beard unity candidate, reaches out to the party left. Let’s see if he agrees.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580872968225185796

    He would be mad. Literally mad to saddle himself to this drowning wreck.

    The way to force her to resign is if nobody will take the job of Chancellor....
    Nadim (from the halfway line) would take the job in all possible and, indeed, conceivable circumstances.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    edited October 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Ok, so we all agree the Tory party current economics are in tatters.

    What are they now?

    In office, but not in power.
    Tbh I’m loving Kwartengs jacket at the airport today. Cool coat. 😍
    Very, and it hides the handcuffs nicely.
    Not making much effort though. Who's the dude in the top hat behind him? He's made an effort, at least (and looks all the happier for it)

    The top hat is probably the doorman at the 1st class suite.
    TOPPING said:


    Bonjour...

    I prefer Topping's version. Of course, the two are not mutually exclusive... :wink:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited October 2022
    Throw away the key.....

    Activists vandalise Vincent van Gogh’s Sunflowers at the National Gallery.

    The vandalism or destruction of art is always an authoritarian act.

    But more than that - it represents a repudiation of civilisation and the achievements of humanity.


    https://twitter.com/andrewdoyle_com/status/1580872772590239746

    But they may have done less damage than they hoped...

    https://www.vangoghstudio.com/why-are-van-gogh-paintings-framed-behind-museum-glass/

  • Not sure that's right, Richard.

    My understanding is that it was the lack of numbers that spooked the markets. Tax cuts were proposed without any plan to show how they were being paid for unless it was just more debt. I think once the city can see some credible numbers it will be calmed, even if doesn't particularly like the policies. As ever, it can cope with bad news, or good news, but it cannot cope with surprises and uncertainty.

    Remove the uncertainty, and stability returns.

    Certainly all that will help, but the plans are going to be looked at with greater scepticism than usual. They'll need to be assured that the numbers stack up, that the plans are politically deliverable, and that the government is committed to them and won't do something bonkers again. The big problem is that, starting from here, it's very hard to see how the first two of those are going to be compatible.
    Agreed, but as we all know, the first thing you have to do when in a hole is to stop digging.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,456
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
    I'm seeing 2.2 Javid and 2.3 Clarke.

    Staying well out myself. Can't get a bead on this at all. Incredible situation! The usual "clusterfucks" and "omnishambles" are not quite up to it.
    Simon Clarke would be a horrendous horrendous appointment. Sacks her chancellor and doesn't even reach out to the other factions.
    The absolute worst.
    I reckon you could do it, Pulpy.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    It is quite clear to me that the next Tory leader needs to be a budgie with a blunt beak!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I hear Jeremy Hunt is top of Truss’s list to be her new Chancellor. Grey beard unity candidate, reaches out to the party left. Let’s see if he agrees.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1580872968225185796

    He would be mad. Literally mad to saddle himself to this drowning wreck.

    The way to force her to resign is if nobody will take the job of Chancellor....
    Nadim (from the halfway line) would take the job in all possible and, indeed, conceivable circumstances.
    Isn't he rather busy with his lawyers?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    edited October 2022
    RobD said:
    Respect to the guy on Twitter with this:
    "Vincent Van Broth."
    https://twitter.com/Dawstours/status/1580868910345134082
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
    I'm seeing 2.2 Javid and 2.3 Clarke.

    Staying well out myself. Can't get a bead on this at all. Incredible situation! The usual "clusterfucks" and "omnishambles" are not quite up to it.
    Simon Clarke would be a horrendous horrendous appointment. Sacks her chancellor and doesn't even reach out to the other factions.
    The absolute worst.
    I reckon you could do it, Pulpy.
    Although malcolmg would be more entertaining.....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Throw away the key.....

    Activists vandalise Vincent van Gogh’s Sunflowers at the National Gallery.

    The vandalism or destruction of art is always an authoritarian act.

    But more than that - it represents a repudiation of civilisation and the achievements of humanity.


    https://twitter.com/andrewdoyle_com/status/1580872772590239746

    Retrograde bourgeousie thinking. Destroy the Four Olds.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🚨 FT confirms: Liz Truss is set to dismiss Kwasi Kwarteng TODAY as she prepares to carry out a dramatic U-turn on his “mini” budget.

    Downing Street declined to confirm the chancellor would remain in his post, refusing to comment on “speculation”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/63ac7dab-d8e4-412c-a910-c0013fdf7f3d
  • Lol she sacks Kwasi? All he did was just try and deliver her crazy leadership promises.

    Why doesn't she just sack herself or in old language resign?

    If the Tory party has made any sort of deal with the PM then they are ALL going down together. Get some bottle and fire her into space.

    You're making Kwarteng sound like he was only following orders there. In fact, he and the Truss were of one mind.

    It is, of course, humiliating for Truss. But I can see the Tory MP logic that changing PM is incredibly painful in itself, whereas replacing the Chancellor with one who is a check rather than an enabler on the PM's odder instincts can be done swiftly and without involving the membership or fringe MPs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    RobD said:
    At some point, someone is going to take things into their own hands with these disruptive arseholes. I wouldn’t want to bet on the jury convicting them.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Pulpstar said:

    On the basis of Truss making horrendous decisions it'll probably be Clarke.

    Ken Clarke would be a great choice although he is not an MP any more. Perhaps elevate him to Lord Clarke of Probity and then appoint him :wink:
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    RobD said:
    Wait until someone tells the them ultimate source of the acrylic in acrylic paint (I assume oil/natural gas, unless there are oter methods?)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Interesting: Wise Tory heads are calling for Steve Barclay to replace Kwasi Kwarteng.
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1580878168185262081



    I take issue with the words wise Tory heads, but anyway...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078

    What the fuck is going on

    Armando Iannucci is relaunching his career as a sober documentary maker.
    Not zany enough... I think this is Fraggle Rock production.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    Badenoch for chancellor?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Scott_xP said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.
    It has to be Nads...
    So the last three of the fast four chancellors have left office without ever producing a budget. Surely unprecedented?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    my experience of Kwarteng is that he would not be someone to go quietly, or take one for the team, especially in a situation where he was literally enacting the signature policy of the PM.

    Indeed senior financiers here in DC were of the impression he would “take her with him” 👀


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1580878071506227200
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:
    At some point, someone is going to take things into their own hands with these disruptive arseholes. I wouldn’t want to bet on the jury convicting them.
    It's just sad. The UK is already transitioning away from the use of fossil fuels. If they want to stop the usage of oil overnight, then the economy simply collapses.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
    I'm seeing 2.2 Javid and 2.3 Clarke.

    Staying well out myself. Can't get a bead on this at all. Incredible situation! The usual "clusterfucks" and "omnishambles" are not quite up to it.
    Simon Clarke would be a horrendous horrendous appointment. Sacks her chancellor and doesn't even reach out to the other factions.
    The absolute worst.
    Yes if I was going to get involved that would probably be it - lay him.
  • Lol she sacks Kwasi? All he did was just try and deliver her crazy leadership promises.

    Why doesn't she just sack herself or in old language resign?

    If the Tory party has made any sort of deal with the PM then they are ALL going down together. Get some bottle and fire her into space.

    You're making Kwarteng sound like he was only following orders there. In fact, he and the Truss were of one mind.

    It is, of course, humiliating for Truss. But I can see the Tory MP logic that changing PM is incredibly painful in itself, whereas replacing the Chancellor with one who is a check rather than an enabler on the PM's odder instincts can be done swiftly and without involving the membership or fringe MPs.
    Nonsense. Kwasi didn't run for the leadership with a set of impossible tax-cutting promises. He of course, foolishly, agreed to be her chancellor. His big chance. But if it wasn't him, it would be some other fool.

    This is all on Truss. But if the Tory MPs allow her to solider on, it will then be all on THEM.
  • Throw away the key.....

    Activists vandalise Vincent van Gogh’s Sunflowers at the National Gallery.

    The vandalism or destruction of art is always an authoritarian act.

    But more than that - it represents a repudiation of civilisation and the achievements of humanity.


    https://twitter.com/andrewdoyle_com/status/1580872772590239746

    But they may have done less damage than they hoped...

    https://www.vangoghstudio.com/why-are-van-gogh-paintings-framed-behind-museum-glass/

    Our public art, and much else, is easily vulnerable to vandalism or even accidental damage. What is the alternative?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    Scott_xP said:

    my experience of Kwarteng is that he would not be someone to go quietly, or take one for the team, especially in a situation where he was literally enacting the signature policy of the PM.

    Indeed senior financiers here in DC were of the impression he would “take her with him” 👀


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1580878071506227200

    Not all bad then.....
  • kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
    I'm seeing 2.2 Javid and 2.3 Clarke.

    Staying well out myself. Can't get a bead on this at all. Incredible situation! The usual "clusterfucks" and "omnishambles" are not quite up to it.
    Simon Clarke would be a horrendous horrendous appointment. Sacks her chancellor and doesn't even reach out to the other factions.
    The absolute worst.
    Yes if I was going to get involved that would probably be it - lay him.
    The only advantage of Simon Clarke as Chancellor is he'd be an easy lay for the top job. Hunt or Javid, you'd need to think about.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    By the sounds of it, rather expensively educated protestors (and Heinz soup, not own label in the "cost of living crisis"?)

    “What is worth more, art or life? … are you more concerned about the protection of a painting or the protection of our planet and people?”

    @JustStop_Oil’s activists explain their action


    https://twitter.com/damiengayle/status/1580865060347383808?s=20&t=MkaXBQY-DL9hkbdQ5rgJfA
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    I thought we were all done with slow motion train wrecks for a while after the Boris saga. But the Tory Party is the gift that keeps on giving…
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    I watched the 'rise' of Liz Truss and her poundshop IEA neoliberalism in the 2010's. For centrists like me, the one consolation of Brexit and the rise of Trump was that I thought it consigned this type of political thinking to history. This 7 week long experiment has been like some strange last gasp on the part of the IEA poundshop neoliberals. Now they are completely destroyed, ruined, humiliated.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Dura_Ace said:

    Throw away the key.....

    Activists vandalise Vincent van Gogh’s Sunflowers at the National Gallery.

    The vandalism or destruction of art is always an authoritarian act.

    But more than that - it represents a repudiation of civilisation and the achievements of humanity.


    https://twitter.com/andrewdoyle_com/status/1580872772590239746

    Retrograde bourgeousie thinking. Destroy the Four Olds.
    I see they glued themselves to the wall. Leave them there and give them all the water they can drink. Once they start needing the loo, leave them there as performance art sitting in their own filth. In fact, make sure they are properly glued down.

    They just want attention. If they were being really serious about it they would not have used tomato soup, it would have been paint stripper.

    I hope they get the bill for the clean up.
  • eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Is that the shortest stint as Chancellor oE?
    Not including any emergency stop gap chancellors
    Actually, in my earlier answer I had forgotten Iain MacLeod, who died after only a month as Heath's Chancellor.

    So Kwarteng won't get the record.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Remembering Matthew Parris on Truss: "a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain"
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1580878794662891521
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    Throw away the key.....

    Activists vandalise Vincent van Gogh’s Sunflowers at the National Gallery.

    The vandalism or destruction of art is always an authoritarian act.

    But more than that - it represents a repudiation of civilisation and the achievements of humanity.


    https://twitter.com/andrewdoyle_com/status/1580872772590239746

    But they may have done less damage than they hoped...

    https://www.vangoghstudio.com/why-are-van-gogh-paintings-framed-behind-museum-glass/

    Our public art, and much else, is easily vulnerable to vandalism or even accidental damage. What is the alternative?
    In this case the painting wasn't damaged. Hopefully they took the care to find out if it was protected by glass or not before pulling this stunt.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    In the future, everyone will be Chancellor of the Exchequer for 15 minutes.

    No I’m Chancellor!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    RobD said:

    Was there ever an explanation as to why the tax cut package had to be announced a few weeks ago, and not at the budget where these sort of things should be announced?

    The obvious explanation is that Truss thought they would be enthusiastically received and it would get her leadership off to a positive start.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing rumours Kwasi sacked.

    Anyone verify?

    yes
    Betting says he's gone.
    And no odds on offer for Javid to be next Chancellor.

    Edit: no odds with Smarkets, 1.33 with BF.
    Can't lay Reeves either. I'm kicking myself for not being quicker off the mark with this.
    I'm seeing 2.2 Javid and 2.3 Clarke.

    Staying well out myself. Can't get a bead on this at all. Incredible situation! The usual "clusterfucks" and "omnishambles" are not quite up to it.
    Yes, Javid has drifted but still fav. over Clarke. Can't see any odds for Hunt.
    No, no Hunt. Chris Philp will be vibrating but surely too callow. It'll have to be a BIG BEAST imo.

    But wtf knows. I've shut my betfair browser so I don't do anything.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    darkage said:

    I watched the 'rise' of Liz Truss and her poundshop IEA neoliberalism in the 2010's. For centrists like me, the one consolation of Brexit and the rise of Trump was that I thought it consigned this type of political thinking to history. This 7 week long experiment has been like some strange last gasp on the part of the IEA poundshop neoliberals. Now they are completely destroyed, ruined, humiliated.

    Brexit is the flame in which a lot of political theories are burning!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Dura_Ace said:

    Throw away the key.....

    Activists vandalise Vincent van Gogh’s Sunflowers at the National Gallery.

    The vandalism or destruction of art is always an authoritarian act.

    But more than that - it represents a repudiation of civilisation and the achievements of humanity.


    https://twitter.com/andrewdoyle_com/status/1580872772590239746

    Retrograde bourgeousie thinking. Destroy the Four Olds.
    I see they glued themselves to the wall. Leave them there and give them all the water they can drink. Once they start needing the loo, leave them there as performance art sitting in their own filth. In fact, make sure they are properly glued down.

    They just want attention. If they were being really serious about it they would not have used tomato soup, it would have been paint stripper.

    I hope they get the bill for the clean up.
    I've got some.... interesting.... glues - being interested in chemistry and DIY. I can guarantee, that short of surgically intervention, they would be part of the National Gallery collection. Permanently.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Lol she sacks Kwasi? All he did was just try and deliver her crazy leadership promises.

    Why doesn't she just sack herself or in old language resign?

    If the Tory party has made any sort of deal with the PM then they are ALL going down together. Get some bottle and fire her into space.

    You're making Kwarteng sound like he was only following orders there. In fact, he and the Truss were of one mind.

    It is, of course, humiliating for Truss. But I can see the Tory MP logic that changing PM is incredibly painful in itself, whereas replacing the Chancellor with one who is a check rather than an enabler on the PM's odder instincts can be done swiftly and without involving the membership or fringe MPs.
    Nonsense. Kwasi didn't run for the leadership with a set of impossible tax-cutting promises. He of course, foolishly, agreed to be her chancellor. His big chance. But if it wasn't him, it would be some other fool.

    This is all on Truss. But if the Tory MPs allow her to solider on, it will then be all on THEM.
    Kwarteng was responsible for presentation, timing, and presumably at least some of the content. You are right to suggest that his own political career indicates he would be diametrically opposed to Truss's growth agenda - he was fully signed up to disastrous green extremism at BEIS. We may never know why he took the job, and why once in it he went off like a landmine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    "Our brand"...

    I am a true #Tory I voted for @trussliz and I will always be loyal to our leader. I’m sick to death of the in fighting. Support Liz or leave the party because you are destroying our brand if you don’t. In addition our Country needs stability more than ever before. @Conservatives
    https://twitter.com/Councillorsuzie/status/1580643638845276160
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.

    Yep thats the problem. Truss said all these policies well before KK was CoE.

    He's the fall guy, and takes some of the blame, but its her policies which he carried out.

    She's the problem, not him.
    OK so I'm a software engineer and I blame the chancellor since that job is sort-of technical.

    If you have a technical job and your boss wants to do something that won't work, your job is to tell them that it won't work. If you pretend to believe it's going to work to impress them and get the job, you deserve everything that's coming to you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Lol she sacks Kwasi? All he did was just try and deliver her crazy leadership promises.

    Why doesn't she just sack herself or in old language resign?

    If the Tory party has made any sort of deal with the PM then they are ALL going down together. Get some bottle and fire her into space.

    You're making Kwarteng sound like he was only following orders there. In fact, he and the Truss were of one mind.

    It is, of course, humiliating for Truss. But I can see the Tory MP logic that changing PM is incredibly painful in itself, whereas replacing the Chancellor with one who is a check rather than an enabler on the PM's odder instincts can be done swiftly and without involving the membership or fringe MPs.
    Nonsense. Kwasi didn't run for the leadership with a set of impossible tax-cutting promises. He of course, foolishly, agreed to be her chancellor. His big chance. But if it wasn't him, it would be some other fool.

    This is all on Truss. But if the Tory MPs allow her to solider on, it will then be all on THEM.
    Kwarteng was responsible for presentation, timing, and presumably at least some of the content. You are right to suggest that his own political career indicates he would be diametrically opposed to Truss's growth agenda - he was fully signed up to disastrous green extremism at BEIS. We may never know why he took the job, and why once in it he went off like a landmine.
    Because he's a tosser....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    By the sounds of it, rather expensively educated protestors (and Heinz soup....

    Quick, someone get over to MOMA armed with a bunch of sunflowers.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    One of the things Cummings says about Truss is that she and her team are thinking in a type of 'telegraph reader' bubble, all their policies are aimed at the centre right newspapers. This would explain how the 'mini-budget' came to be.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:
    At some point, someone is going to take things into their own hands with these disruptive arseholes. I wouldn’t want to bet on the jury convicting them.
    They are going to find that an arrest fro criminal damage will stop them getting a job at a top hedge fund.

    We had one guy come in as a graduate entry. We enjoyed ourselves massively with his social media history.

    "4 months ago, you posted that you wanted to kill all the bankers. Have your views changed and if not, are you going to commit suicide, if you get the job?"
    LOL, idiot.

    I’d have asked him if he intended to kill any of his colleagues, and if he thought that was a risk worth taking for the bank?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Who will Liz Truss's new chancellor be?

    I'm told it's NOT Sajid Javid and that Jeremy Hunt is currently out of the country

    Otherwise it's currently a guessing game - Zahawi, Clarke and Barclay among names doing rounds but nothing certain yet


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580881538383634432
  • RunDeepRunDeep Posts: 77
    edited October 2022
    August 19th - Matthew Parris on Truss:

    "a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain"

    Edited: I now see another poster got there first. Still, worth repeating.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    RobD said:

    Was there ever an explanation as to why the tax cut package had to be announced a few weeks ago, and not at the budget where these sort of things should be announced?

    The obvious explanation is that Truss thought they would be enthusiastically received and it would get her leadership off to a positive start.
    But they can't have done any focus groups beforehand.

    Or did and ignored them.

    Either way - they deserve what they have coming.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    edited October 2022
    Gone?

    ...gone
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    BREAKING
    Kwarteng out as chancellor
    Kwasi Kwarteng is no longer chancellor, the BBC understands.
  • She’s terrible.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting: Wise Tory heads are calling for Steve Barclay to replace Kwasi Kwarteng.
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1580878168185262081



    I take issue with the words wise Tory heads, but anyway...

    It’s either Barclay or Mogg.

    Just a reminder from me, despite what 100% of media coverage and 99.9% of PB is telling me, I’m sure the mini budget is not the real cause of this crisis. The Energy Price Guarantee is.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Liz might say:

    OK we are putting CT up to 25% but only on profits beyond £1m

    (Isn't the original proposal to keep the rate at 19% on profits up to £50,000 then 25% thereafter?)

    So that approach could be seen as 'more small business friendly'

    ???
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:
    At some point, someone is going to take things into their own hands with these disruptive arseholes. I wouldn’t want to bet on the jury convicting them.
    They are going to find that an arrest fro criminal damage will stop them getting a job at a top hedge fund.

    We had one guy come in as a graduate entry. We enjoyed ourselves massively with his social media history.

    "4 months ago, you posted that you wanted to kill all the bankers. Have your views changed and if not, are you going to commit suicide, if you get the job?"
    LOL, idiot.

    I’d have asked him if he intended to kill any of his colleagues, and if he thought that was a risk worth taking for the bank?
    Oh, we told him that it was dog-eat-dog world in the bank - murders of colleagues SOP. "Shame about Fred. But I wanted that promotion."

    We weren't actually going to hire him - to start with, the risk that he was going to get all protestory. Before the threats to kill stuff. We only brought him in to yank his chain.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,383
    If I were Kwarteng, I'd be absolutely livid:

    "Liz, I've done absolutely everything you wanted, to the letter, and then you sack me".
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Lol she sacks Kwasi? All he did was just try and deliver her crazy leadership promises.

    Why doesn't she just sack herself or in old language resign?

    If the Tory party has made any sort of deal with the PM then they are ALL going down together. Get some bottle and fire her into space.

    You're making Kwarteng sound like he was only following orders there. In fact, he and the Truss were of one mind.

    It is, of course, humiliating for Truss. But I can see the Tory MP logic that changing PM is incredibly painful in itself, whereas replacing the Chancellor with one who is a check rather than an enabler on the PM's odder instincts can be done swiftly and without involving the membership or fringe MPs.
    Nonsense. Kwasi didn't run for the leadership with a set of impossible tax-cutting promises. He of course, foolishly, agreed to be her chancellor. His big chance. But if it wasn't him, it would be some other fool.

    This is all on Truss. But if the Tory MPs allow her to solider on, it will then be all on THEM.
    Kwarteng was responsible for presentation, timing, and presumably at least some of the content. You are right to suggest that his own political career indicates he would be diametrically opposed to Truss's growth agenda - he was fully signed up to disastrous green extremism at BEIS. We may never know why he took the job, and why once in it he went off like a landmine.
    Because he's a tosser....
    He was a very odd choice. He didn't have a good track record. He chose to take some of the least sellable pillars of the Government's agenda, announce them half a year early, the day after the BOE has started selling off bonds, and give the appearance of half-wittedness in so doing. It all looks suspicious to me, but I am a loony conspiracy theorist. I can't think any future preferment could be worth being known as Britain's worst ever Chancellor.
  • Pretty sure this is not going to turn the polls.

    I suspect voters will see that this move is desperate and unfair and it is her mess not his.

    We shall see this weekend.

    Yep thats the problem. Truss said all these policies well before KK was CoE.

    He's the fall guy, and takes some of the blame, but its her policies which he carried out.

    She's the problem, not him.
    OK so I'm a software engineer and I blame the chancellor since that job is sort-of technical.

    If you have a technical job and your boss wants to do something that won't work, your job is to tell them that it won't work. If you pretend to believe it's going to work to impress them and get the job, you deserve everything that's coming to you.
    That is right, of course, but I believe he thought it really would work.

    He seems to have disbelieved the academic criticism that the theory was fundamentally flawed, and ignored the lack of evidence for its success in practice.

    He should go, of course, because he is responsible for the failure. So should she, but in her case it is because she is self-evidently out of her depth.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    LOL.

    Liz is crap is not going to be Prime Minister much longer?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Additional fun fact here is that if Kwasi is indeed sacked and I can't imagine he's offered a different ministerial role, he will receive more money in his payoff (three months' pay) than he has from his ministerial salary
    https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1580874208153784320
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:
    At some point, someone is going to take things into their own hands with these disruptive arseholes. I wouldn’t want to bet on the jury convicting them.
    They are going to find that an arrest fro criminal damage will stop them getting a job at a top hedge fund.

    We had one guy come in as a graduate entry. We enjoyed ourselves massively with his social media history.

    "4 months ago, you posted that you wanted to kill all the bankers. Have your views changed and if not, are you going to commit suicide, if you get the job?"
    LOL, idiot.

    I’d have asked him if he intended to kill any of his colleagues, and if he thought that was a risk worth taking for the bank?
    Oh, we told him that it was dog-eat-dog world in the bank - murders of colleagues SOP. "Shame about Fred. But I wanted that promotion."

    We weren't actually going to hire him - to start with, the risk that he was going to get all protestory. Before the threats to kill stuff. We only brought him in to yank his chain.
    Is he now in the cabinet?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215

    If I were Kwarteng, I'd be absolutely livid:

    "Liz, I've done absolutely everything you wanted, to the letter, and then you sack me".

    Thems the breaks
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297
    edited October 2022

    RobD said:

    Was there ever an explanation as to why the tax cut package had to be announced a few weeks ago, and not at the budget where these sort of things should be announced?

    The obvious explanation is that Truss thought they would be enthusiastically received and it would get her leadership off to a positive start.
    One thing that's interesting to look at is who welcomed the budget at the time.
    Adam Smith Institute, Centre for Policy Studies, Institute of Economic Affairs all keen. Taxpayers Alliance loved it.
    But Institute for Fiscal Studies panned it.

    Rather a neat dividing line.
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-mini-budget-think-tanks/

  • Scott_xP said:

    Who will Liz Truss's new chancellor be?

    I'm told it's NOT Sajid Javid and that Jeremy Hunt is currently out of the country

    Otherwise it's currently a guessing game - Zahawi, Clarke and Barclay among names doing rounds but nothing certain yet


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580881538383634432

    What about Jacob Rees-Mogg?
  • Lol she sacks Kwasi? All he did was just try and deliver her crazy leadership promises.

    Why doesn't she just sack herself or in old language resign?

    If the Tory party has made any sort of deal with the PM then they are ALL going down together. Get some bottle and fire her into space.

    You're making Kwarteng sound like he was only following orders there. In fact, he and the Truss were of one mind.

    It is, of course, humiliating for Truss. But I can see the Tory MP logic that changing PM is incredibly painful in itself, whereas replacing the Chancellor with one who is a check rather than an enabler on the PM's odder instincts can be done swiftly and without involving the membership or fringe MPs.
    Nonsense. Kwasi didn't run for the leadership with a set of impossible tax-cutting promises. He of course, foolishly, agreed to be her chancellor. His big chance. But if it wasn't him, it would be some other fool.

    This is all on Truss. But if the Tory MPs allow her to solider on, it will then be all on THEM.
    I don't disagree with your broad criticism of Truss's policy approach.

    I'm simply explaining the thinking of Tory MPs. Replacing a PM is hard, slow and painful, and the one you get isn't necessarily more to your liking. Replacing a Chancellor with an economically orthodox one specifically chosen to prevent the PM pursuing her economic instincts is relatively quick and easy.

    The backdrop to this is that a lot of Tory MPs think the next election is lost, so anyone replacing Truss is a fall guy. That potentially rules out the best contenders. And you potentially need two fall guys - one to win the MPs' vote, and one to come second and withdraw without going to the membership. And you need there to be few enough colleagues willing to stick a spanner in the works with rogue candidates. And the fall guy needs to be sufficiently credible to be able to act as PM and at least pretend to be trying to win an election.

    No doubt most MPs desire the outcome. But desiring the outcome isn't the same as being willing to go through what is required to (possibly) get there.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Jonathan said:

    BREAKING
    Kwarteng out as chancellor
    Kwasi Kwarteng is no longer chancellor, the BBC understands.

    Of course, departing Chancellors have been known to bring down PMs and Ms Truss likes to model herself on Mrs Thatcher
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting: Wise Tory heads are calling for Steve Barclay to replace Kwasi Kwarteng.
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1580878168185262081



    I take issue with the words wise Tory heads, but anyway...

    It’s either Barclay or Mogg.

    Just a reminder from me, despite what 100% of media coverage and 99.9% of PB is telling me, I’m sure the mini budget is not the real cause of this crisis. The Energy Price Guarantee is.
    Morning all.

    I'm not convinced on that one. The Energy Price guarantee is not really that much out of line with packages being introduced in countries across Europe. Compare, say, to the package in Germany.

    It was first afaics, but others are pretty much in line.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting: Wise Tory heads are calling for Steve Barclay to replace Kwasi Kwarteng.
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1580878168185262081



    I take issue with the words wise Tory heads, but anyway...

    It’s either Barclay or Mogg.

    Just a reminder from me, despite what 100% of media coverage and 99.9% of PB is telling me, I’m sure the mini budget is not the real cause of this crisis. The Energy Price Guarantee is.
    Apologies if I have missed it, but what's your alternative to the latter?
  • rkrkrk said:

    RobD said:

    Was there ever an explanation as to why the tax cut package had to be announced a few weeks ago, and not at the budget where these sort of things should be announced?

    The obvious explanation is that Truss thought they would be enthusiastically received and it would get her leadership off to a positive start.
    One thing that's interesting to look at is who welcomed the budget at the time.
    Adam Smith Institute, Centre for Policy Studies, Institute of Economic Affairs all keen. Taxpayers Alliance loved it.
    But Institute for Fiscal Studies panned it.

    Rather a neat dividing line.
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-mini-budget-think-tanks/

    Lol!

    Never mind the others, if the Taxpayers Alliance supports any policy you know immediately it is a pile of shite!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Javid out with the washing

    Mel Stride at 1.02/26
    Zahawi at 2.32/15
    Clarke at 2.34/7
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    I think Liz Truss is insane, but surely she can’t be mad enough to make JRM Chancellor?

    Can She?!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    From 1993-2019 we had five chancellors.
    By this afternoon, since 2019 we will also have had five.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    I feel sorry for Kwarteng. Implemented Truss’ view and sacked as a result
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    If I were Kwarteng, I'd be absolutely livid:

    "Liz, I've done absolutely everything you wanted, to the letter, and then you sack me".

    I'd be totally livid too. He's just doing what the PM wanted.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    I think Liz Truss is insane, but surely she can’t be mad enough to make JRM Chancellor?

    Can She?!

    omg oh shit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,967
    So looks like Truss has sacked Kwarteng to try and save herself. Who she appoints as his replacement as Chancellor will be pivotal to whether she can regain the confidence of her party and the markets
This discussion has been closed.