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Liz Truss – the Tory gift to Keir Starmer – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    But we misunderstood her.
    You'd think the government might have launched an energy-saving campaign weeks ago, but like people are always saying: you underestimate Liz Truss at your peril. It must be more important to look anti the nanny state. Even though their business secretary, 53, still has a nanny

    https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1578015162585743362
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Nigelb said:
    You realize that guy is nuts, right?
    Sorry, thought it was Scryver.
    Lol.
    Who is Scryver ?
    Scryver is one of the nutjob "everything is going according to Russia's amazing plan" blogger/Twitter guys.

    Here's from a recent missive:


    So, by his own assessment, NATO now strides the world like a Colossus?
    His own assessment is that Russia is luring Ukraine into a trap with measured and tactical withdrawals, and that he is increasingly convinced that the war ends with an overwhelming Russian victory.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    AlistairM said:

    Nigelb said:

    "Evacuated" ?

    All #Kherson schoolchildren will be evacuated to Crimea apparently today
    https://mobile.twitter.com/niktwick/status/1577941657030377472

    Abducted/illegally deported for the vast majority.

    And/or human shields to stop the bridge being blown up. Russia, of course, continue to deliberately target civilian property. They are despicable.
    No, Russia has been abducting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children and given them to Russian families to raise in Russia. It's Putin's plan to wipe out Ukrainian identity and boost Russia's demographics. Thoroughly evil.
    Indeed, a despicable war crime by the Russians.

    I’ll be careful exactly how much I say, but my wife has tried to make enquiries with Ukranian authorities about war orphans, and the answer is that there are very few, because many children - hundreds of thousands - have been abducted and deported to Russia.
    This is the sort of thing that will likely prevent any normalisation of relations between Russia and Europe for many years. So I hope Europe's leaders have been taking action on the assumption of zero Russian hydrocarbons essentially forever.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If you aren't plotting to save the next election - chances are you won't be in a position to be part of the opposition after the next election.

    Currently the Tory Party are heading into terminal wipe-out territory ...
    Next May's council elections may be the tipping point. If the Conservative lose a lot of councillors then the membership may turn on those responsible.
    It is worth remembering that the 2019 locals were truly dire for the Conservatives, so they probably don't have that far to fall:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    Neck and neck with Labour? A little bird tells me that they will do somewhat worse than that next time!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    I quite enjoyed the blackouts in the 70s as a child. as an adult today maybe not so much.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    AlistairM said:

    I am shocked, what are the odds of this.

    A Home Office immigration official has been suspended after posting “vile” and “abhorrent” racist content on a WhatsApp group with former police officers.

    Rob Lewis, a former Metropolitan Police officer, is alleged to have created the group chat, which also included other ex-Met officers.

    The messages, uncovered by the BBC’s Newsnight, allegedly included racist and derogatory comments about the Duke and Duchess of Sussex and featured jokes about the government’s Rwanda policy and the recent flooding in Pakistan, in which almost 1,700 died.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/home-office-suspends-former-met-police-officer-rob-lewis-over-racist-and-vile-whatsapp-group-pq3bvr2h3

    If The Met was any other organisation it would have been proscribed.

    How can an organisation monitor and control what takes place on a private WhatsApp group? If they can't monitor and control it then how can they be responsible for it?
    They are responsible for employing the people behind the WhatsApp group.
    Is the Met responsible when the Met Pol Model Railway Society crashes their Hornby-Dublo Empress of Britain and scratches the paintwork?

    [edited] The alleged messages are infinitely more serious - but I can't see that the underlying logic is different, except that in the event that they are contrary to reputable and lawful conduct of a police officer (so the Met can only get involved retrospectively).

    Maybe a copyright/brandingname usage issue, too.
    I don’t think we want people who are abhorrently racist working for the Met or at the Home Office. Maybe those employers could do more to vet potential employees or to make it clear to existing employees what is acceptable?

    Quite so.
    While I can agree with this, if said racist behaves impeccably in their work, what offence is committed? We stray dangerously into thought crime areas.
    Your kidding, right?

    Have you noticed the past 40 years of tension between the MPS and the various "communities". There needs to be confidence that the MPS is employing people who aren't filthy racists, no matter how good they are at helping grannies to cross the road.
    Yes - I agree on the principal. But again - what crime has been committed?
    I'm not sure what crime has been committed but it's a bit well at least the trains ran on time...
    Not really. I have a colleague who shares jokes etc on whatsapp. He also gets them from his brother in law. Who works on kiddie fiddling for the West Mids police. I'm pretty sure they share the jokes around. Now most are not racist, but are usually sexist (both directions to be fair) and there is the odd irish joke, which I guess is racist. How is whatsapp like this different to blokes down the pub or at the BBQ? What happened to free speech and freedom of thought?
    It's not all that different to down the pub etc.

    But if someone complained to a company/police force etc that one of their employees was making racist remarks down the pub (particularly if they had documentary proof, e.g. recording) then that, too, would likely result in action, would it not? Depends on company, profile, etc, but a Home Office immigration officer making jokes like these down the pub, if reported, would get that officer into trouble, I expect.

    The Home Office are presumably only aware of this because someone reported it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    AlistairM said:

    I am shocked, what are the odds of this.

    A Home Office immigration official has been suspended after posting “vile” and “abhorrent” racist content on a WhatsApp group with former police officers.

    Rob Lewis, a former Metropolitan Police officer, is alleged to have created the group chat, which also included other ex-Met officers.

    The messages, uncovered by the BBC’s Newsnight, allegedly included racist and derogatory comments about the Duke and Duchess of Sussex and featured jokes about the government’s Rwanda policy and the recent flooding in Pakistan, in which almost 1,700 died.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/home-office-suspends-former-met-police-officer-rob-lewis-over-racist-and-vile-whatsapp-group-pq3bvr2h3

    If The Met was any other organisation it would have been proscribed.

    How can an organisation monitor and control what takes place on a private WhatsApp group? If they can't monitor and control it then how can they be responsible for it?
    They are responsible for employing the people behind the WhatsApp group.
    Is the Met responsible when the Met Pol Model Railway Society crashes their Hornby-Dublo Empress of Britain and scratches the paintwork?

    [edited] The alleged messages are infinitely more serious - but I can't see that the underlying logic is different, except that in the event that they are contrary to reputable and lawful conduct of a police officer (so the Met can only get involved retrospectively).

    Maybe a copyright/brandingname usage issue, too.
    I don’t think we want people who are abhorrently racist working for the Met or at the Home Office. Maybe those employers could do more to vet potential employees or to make it clear to existing employees what is acceptable?

    Quite so.
    While I can agree with this, if said racist behaves impeccably in their work, what offence is committed? We stray dangerously into thought crime areas.
    Your kidding, right?

    Have you noticed the past 40 years of tension between the MPS and the various "communities". There needs to be confidence that the MPS is employing people who aren't filthy racists, no matter how good they are at helping grannies to cross the road.
    Yes - I agree on the principal. But again - what crime has been committed?
    There’s no crime as such, it’s a employment disciplinary offence.
    Private phones?

    Windows into a man's soul territory.
    Oh I agree completely, but HR departments, especially at large corps and in the public sector, have very wide employment terms that cover something horribly vague such as upholding the values of the institution, which they have in recent times taken to include out-of-hours posting on private message boards.

    As noted upthread, one for the Free Speech Union.
    This occasion yes, although last month some ex-PC's were jailed i think for similar offences in relation to the Everard case.
    IIRC the messages in that case were of images, possibly from the crime scene itself from non-public police files, and shared by serving police officers (who were ex-officers by the time the trial was reported, as they’d been fired over the messages).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    edited October 2022
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If you aren't plotting to save the next election - chances are you won't be in a position to be part of the opposition after the next election.

    Currently the Tory Party are heading into terminal wipe-out territory ...
    Next May's council elections may be the tipping point. If the Conservative lose a lot of councillors then the membership may turn on those responsible.
    It is worth remembering that the 2019 locals were truly dire for the Conservatives, so they probably don't have that far to fall:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    Neck and neck with Labour? A little bird tells me that they will do somewhat worse than that next time!
    Labour v Tory council wards will likely see significant Labour gains. Tory v LD or Tory v Independent or Tory v Green wards likely little change unless the Truss Tories fall even further behind by next May
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    Obvious outcome is obvious.

    Test your generators...
    The generators you all bought back in the summer, when it was easy to find them.

    I mean, you did all buy generators back in the summer, didn’t you?
    Got two.

    Admittedly, for running moth traps, but they will do the job.
    Crikey - how powerful are those moth traps?
    They each run 2 x 165MW mercury vapour bulbs.

    Yer can see 'em from space!
    Do you get sunburn if you stand in front of them?

    For 320MW surely you would need a good size power station?
    Ah, so that's why Hinkley C is where it is.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    I quite enjoyed the blackouts in the 70s as a child. as an adult today maybe not so much.
    So long as we get a little card through the door with the times in advance, like we did then, so we can get the board game set up before the lights go out…
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    Sean_F said:

    tyson said:

    The Tories key selling point has always been the fact that it persuades people that it can spend taxes more wisely than Labour. Rinse and repeat. The British public is small c conservative- they like the Government to add 1 and 1. That point has won the Tories every election despite Labour being trusted to run public services better (aside from the police and immigration). Our Conservative instinct leads us to place counting money higher than what it is spent on. We love the NHS, but not as much as our fear of indebtedness.

    Major lost it momentarily on Black Monday and Labour won 3 elections. Well Truss has well and truly FUBARed the Tory edge on counting money.

    And as Casino has so eloquently said, she has double down and fucked with people's houses. Labour can now pin next years inevitable house price crash on the Tories. And play this message for the next few elections in the same way the Tories linked the banking crisis with Brown.

    I never thought Corbyn was an existential risk to the Labour Party. I always thought it was a passing phase. But Truss genuinely I think poses an existential risk to the Tory party which is not a good thing. Because out of the ashes of the Tory party will rise a Populist Right akin to Le Pen or Meloni.

    The Tories must now go into full damage limitation mode with the MP's agreeing on a Unity candidate who can limp them into the next GE, but leave them enough of base to survive as a political force.

    I think it unlikely that prices will crash. Mortgage rates have been rising since the start of the year, without crashing prices.

    That said, the next election results seems pretty well settled.
    "Crash" is an emotive word. And it implies a sudden drop which, it has to be said, is pretty unlikely.

    However, we do need to keep an eye on volumes.

    Because trouble in the housing market starts slowly, and starts with properties taking longer to sell.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If you aren't plotting to save the next election - chances are you won't be in a position to be part of the opposition after the next election.

    Currently the Tory Party are heading into terminal wipe-out territory ...
    Next May's council elections may be the tipping point. If the Conservative lose a lot of councillors then the membership may turn on those responsible.
    It is worth remembering that the 2019 locals were truly dire for the Conservatives, so they probably don't have that far to fall:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    Neck and neck with Labour? A little bird tells me that they will do somewhat worse than that next time!
    Labour v Tory council wards will likely see significant Labour gains. Tory v LD or Tory v Independent or Tory v Green wards likely little change unless the Truss Tories fall even further behind by next May
    The LibDems should do better than that - in their target wards where there’s a decent campaign, many of those people telling the national polls they will switch from Tory to Labour at next GE will be willing to back their local LibDem candidate against the sitting Tory councillor.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Rolling blackouts are going to be great for those who work from home...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    A thread on the impact on Ukraine fortunes of the kit they have liberated from the Russians.

    https://twitter.com/KyleWOrton/status/1577987967292948482/photo/1

    "We've got so many trophies we don't even know what to do with them" he said. "We started off as an infantry battalion and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion."

    There was a contract awarded last month to an American arms factory, to make hundreds of thousands of ‘non-standard’ Soviet-sized artillery shells, as the Ukrainians have captured so much kit they are running out of ammo!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    Obvious outcome is obvious.

    Test your generators...
    The generators you all bought back in the summer, when it was easy to find them.

    I mean, you did all buy generators back in the summer, didn’t you?
    Got two.

    Admittedly, for running moth traps, but they will do the job.
    Crikey - how powerful are those moth traps?
    They each run 2 x 165MW mercury vapour bulbs.

    Yer can see 'em from space!
    Do you get sunburn if you stand in front of them?

    For 320MW surely you would need a good size power station?
    I may have slightly overstated the power by an M for effect....

    They recommend you wear sunglasses at moth traps. But not quite lead shields.

    Moths like it though.

    The Vapourer and the Red-lined Quaker were new for the year last night.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.

    Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.

    Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.

    They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
    They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.

    Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
    Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
    Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
    Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.

    Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
    I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.

    KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
    Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.

    But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc

    What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
    So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.

    If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
    I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.

    Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
    So you still weren't in the category after 40 then even if you were before and your wife still was
    Yep I was (not that it matters) because I set up a business that meets your criteria completely. But I don't get this boasting stuff. What does it matter what I or my wife did? She certainly doesn't think of herself as being upper middle class not I. Why does it matter to you?
    As you were not both in the category able to help your children with deposits for expensive London or Home counties properties at the time they needed it
    If house prices down South were sane, parents wouldn't need to destroy their own finances to allow their children to buy a home and have a family..
    London is now the biggest and richest global city in Europe.

    I am afraid the only way to collapse London and SE house prices again is for London to go back to a 1970s relative shithole with a few historic buildings. Even building all over the greenbelt wouldn't do it

    What's the point of having the "biggest and richest" city if no one can afford to live in it?
    Well go back to London being a 1970s style shithole then with a few historic buildings and much cheaper property. Pull down Docklands and put in some semis in its place, tell the American banks to get out of London and turn the Shard into UKIP HQ might do it!

    Leave being a global city to Paris and New York and LA and Tokyo
    Tokyo doesn't have silly high rents, they just let people build things.
    Even in Tokyo the average property price to buy is now the equivalent of $604 000, which would be well above the UK average

    https://resources.realestate.co.jp/news/how-much-does-an-apartment-cost-in-tokyo-march-2022-update/
    The Japanese have not experienced anything like the population growth of the U.K.

    They have a tiny birth rate and the immigration rate is negligible.

    Strangely, when demand for houses is actually falling, in many areas…
    Japan is interesting, because large parts of the country are suffering terrible depopulation (which, btw, is also a big problem), while Tokyo's population is growing reasonably strongly.
  • Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
    If the lights go out, how will we be able to tell?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Scott_xP said:

    Rolling blackouts are going to be great for those who work from home...

    Indeed. “No, I didn’t get the email….”
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Nigelb said:
    You realize that guy is nuts, right?
    Sorry, thought it was Scryver.
    Lol.
    Who is Scryver ?
    Scryver is one of the nutjob "everything is going according to Russia's amazing plan" blogger/Twitter guys.

    Here's from a recent missive:


    So, by his own assessment, NATO now strides the world like a Colossus?
    His own assessment is that Russia is luring Ukraine into a trap with measured and tactical withdrawals, and that he is increasingly convinced that the war ends with an overwhelming Russian victory.
    He should really step away from the keyboard for a while. See how those traps play out whilst he's gone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    edited October 2022
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If you aren't plotting to save the next election - chances are you won't be in a position to be part of the opposition after the next election.

    Currently the Tory Party are heading into terminal wipe-out territory ...
    Next May's council elections may be the tipping point. If the Conservative lose a lot of councillors then the membership may turn on those responsible.
    It is worth remembering that the 2019 locals were truly dire for the Conservatives, so they probably don't have that far to fall:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    Neck and neck with Labour? A little bird tells me that they will do somewhat worse than that next time!
    Labour v Tory council wards will likely see significant Labour gains. Tory v LD or Tory v Independent or Tory v Green wards likely little change unless the Truss Tories fall even further behind by next May
    The LibDems should do better than that - in their target wards where there’s a decent campaign, many of those people telling the national polls they will switch from Tory to Labour at next GE will be willing to back their local LibDem candidate against the sitting Tory councillor.
    Yes but most of them already tactically voted LD in 2019 anyway in those wards where they were the main opponents for the Tories and with the Tories on just 28% NEV nationally most of their targets were LD gains then. Indeed with Labour polling far higher now than in May 2019 the Tories might even hope to gain a few seats from the LDs with some tactical unwind in LD held wards back to Labour even if they will likely lose seats to Labour with LD voters more willing to tactically vote Labour in Labour target wards held by the Tories
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Anyhow, I am off to walk the dog across Brooklyn Bridge; at last we have a warm sunny day, the remnants of that hurricane with my name on it having drifted up to the Canadian coast.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
    If the lights go out, how will we be able to tell?
    Something of a relief.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If you aren't plotting to save the next election - chances are you won't be in a position to be part of the opposition after the next election.

    Currently the Tory Party are heading into terminal wipe-out territory ...
    Next May's council elections may be the tipping point. If the Conservative lose a lot of councillors then the membership may turn on those responsible.
    It is worth remembering that the 2019 locals were truly dire for the Conservatives, so they probably don't have that far to fall:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    Neck and neck with Labour? A little bird tells me that they will do somewhat worse than that next time!
    Labour v Tory council wards will likely see significant Labour gains. Tory v LD or Tory v Independent or Tory v Green wards likely little change unless the Truss Tories fall even further behind by next May
    The LibDems should do better than that - in their target wards where there’s a decent campaign, many of those people telling the national polls they will switch from Tory to Labour at next GE will be willing to back their local LibDem candidate against the sitting Tory councillor.
    Yes but most of them already tactically voted LD in 2019 anyway in those wards where they were the main opponents for the Tories and with the Tories on just 28% NEV nationally most of their targets were LD gains then
    Let’s see. My impression is that voters are more willing to vote tactically the more despised the Tories become, and with greater distance from the coalition years.
  • Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
    If the lights go out, how will we be able to tell?
    Something of a relief.
    More opinion polls, @MoonRabbit ! More!
  • For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
    If the lights go out, how will we be able to tell?
    If they come back on, The Undertaker will standing behind Liz Truss as she does her silly grin.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited October 2022

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    Obvious outcome is obvious.

    Test your generators...
    The generators you all bought back in the summer, when it was easy to find them.

    I mean, you did all buy generators back in the summer, didn’t you?
    Got two.

    Admittedly, for running moth traps, but they will do the job.
    Crikey - how powerful are those moth traps?
    They each run 2 x 165MW mercury vapour bulbs.

    Yer can see 'em from space!
    Funnily enough, the generators in my garage are for the same purpose.

    Though I think 165MW is a slight overkill for attracting Haworth's Minor &c.

    I'm not going to get out the calculator but I'd imagine there would be a decent radius of burnt vegetation.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Rolling blackouts are going to be great for those who work from home...

    But will the electric trains run to enable you to go to the office?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Rolling blackouts are going to be great for those who work from home...

    But will the electric trains run to enable you to go to the office?
    Or indeed the electric signalling for diesel trains?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
    Just the one L in Miliband, Moon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Scott_xP said:

    Rolling blackouts are going to be great for those who work from home...

    But will the electric trains run to enable you to go to the office?
    Or indeed the electric signalling for diesel trains?
    Or the electric road signs for smart motorways?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited October 2022
    One of the key reasons I’m pleased at the Tories imploding is that it will hopefully discourage parties in future from using an electorally popular leader as a “gateway” candidate to win a GE, followed by a swift defenestration and the election of a more extreme PM.

    The country as a whole did not vote for all this Trussian cr*p in 2019. I’m not suggesting that the Tories should have stuck with Boris (they shouldn’t) but “vote Boris get Truss and trickle down economics taken to the max” would have been the furthest thing on voters minds when they cast their ballots in 2019.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Nigelb said:
    You realize that guy is nuts, right?
    Sorry, thought it was Scryver.
    Lol.
    Who is Scryver ?
    Scryver is one of the nutjob "everything is going according to Russia's amazing plan" blogger/Twitter guys.

    Here's from a recent missive:


    So, by his own assessment, NATO now strides the world like a Colossus?
    His own assessment is that Russia is luring Ukraine into a trap with measured and tactical withdrawals, and that he is increasingly convinced that the war ends with an overwhelming Russian victory.
    He should really step away from the keyboard for a while. See how those traps play out whilst he's gone.
    I suppose it's similar to the way that the Germans lured the Red Army into a trap, when they retreated towards Berlin.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    tyson said:

    The Tories key selling point has always been the fact that it persuades people that it can spend taxes more wisely than Labour. Rinse and repeat. The British public is small c conservative- they like the Government to add 1 and 1. That point has won the Tories every election despite Labour being trusted to run public services better (aside from the police and immigration). Our Conservative instinct leads us to place counting money higher than what it is spent on. We love the NHS, but not as much as our fear of indebtedness.

    Major lost it momentarily on Black Monday and Labour won 3 elections. Well Truss has well and truly FUBARed the Tory edge on counting money.

    And as Casino has so eloquently said, she has double down and fucked with people's houses. Labour can now pin next years inevitable house price crash on the Tories. And play this message for the next few elections in the same way the Tories linked the banking crisis with Brown.

    I never thought Corbyn was an existential risk to the Labour Party. I always thought it was a passing phase. But Truss genuinely I think poses an existential risk to the Tory party which is not a good thing. Because out of the ashes of the Tory party will rise a Populist Right akin to Le Pen or Meloni.

    The Tories must now go into full damage limitation mode with the MP's agreeing on a Unity candidate who can limp them into the next GE, but leave them enough of base to survive as a political force.

    I think it unlikely that prices will crash. Mortgage rates have been rising since the start of the year, without crashing prices.

    That said, the next election results seems pretty well settled.
    "Crash" is an emotive word. And it implies a sudden drop which, it has to be said, is pretty unlikely.

    However, we do need to keep an eye on volumes.

    Because trouble in the housing market starts slowly, and starts with properties taking longer to sell.
    A negative correction over the next 18 months taking prices back to about 2018 levels - is my prediction.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Conservative MPs are preparing to hold crisis talks on Liz Truss' future amid growing backbench restlessness with the first few weeks of her premiership and dire opinion polling https://bit.ly/3fNhK2g
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360

    For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!

    IIRC 2010/11 was the last really freezing winter we had.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Sandpit said:

    A thread on the impact on Ukraine fortunes of the kit they have liberated from the Russians.

    https://twitter.com/KyleWOrton/status/1577987967292948482/photo/1

    "We've got so many trophies we don't even know what to do with them" he said. "We started off as an infantry battalion and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion."

    There was a contract awarded last month to an American arms factory, to make hundreds of thousands of ‘non-standard’ Soviet-sized artillery shells, as the Ukrainians have captured so much kit they are running out of ammo!
    All that ammo marked "Return to Sender".....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    IanB2 said:

    Anyhow, I am off to walk the dog across Brooklyn Bridge; at last we have a warm sunny day, the remnants of that hurricane with my name on it having drifted up to the Canadian coast.

    If you get time, go to the Brooklyn Museum and have a look at the Bierstadts - massive landscape paintings done in the 19th century, in the wilds of America. Quite a thing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    @francis_scarr
    As countries around the world struggle with inflation, Alexander Lukashenko has this genius plan for Belarus:

    "From 6 October, all price increases are forbidden. Forbidden! From today. Not from tomorrow, from today. So that prices aren't driven up in the next 24 hours"


    https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1577988705742213120
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited October 2022
    Sean_F said:

    For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!

    IIRC 2010/11 was the last really freezing winter we had.
    I remember wrecking the office kitchen as I bought a 500ml bottle of pepsi in from the car and watched it freeze as I opened it. Half or so froze and the rest spurted 3metres into the air..

    Don't try this at home folks - it makes a very sticky mess
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,965
    edited October 2022

    HYUFD said:

    PB favourite Prof John Curtice:

    On how the waves from Westminster have washed over @ScotTories but left @TheSNP citadel untouched.

    https://twitter.com/whatscotsthink/status/1577937980756467712?s=46&t=ZufN8YAs4WTmrmQybO-kUw

    If Labour win a UK majority they can ignore the SNP anyway
    You’ll be voting Labour yourself then?
    Right wing Unionists teeing up Labour as saviours of the Union comes round earlier every year. Actually several times a year nowadays.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MPs are preparing to hold crisis talks on Liz Truss' future amid growing backbench restlessness with the first few weeks of her premiership and dire opinion polling https://bit.ly/3fNhK2g

    If only they had held those crisis meetings before putting her to the membership, eh?

    Fucking muppets....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 2022
    Good news folks only somebody got slashed across the face and another in the torso....and its confirms dangers to carry a knife, you know somebody might stop you robbing people and you end up stabbing 4 people.

    The Mayor of London has spoken about the Bishopsgate stabbing:

    We've been working with the City of London Police, I was given an update straightaway.

    The good news is, it's not a terror attack. And another piece of good news is the three victims of the stabbing are not in life-threatening situations, thank God.

    But it's just a reminder of the dangers of carrying the knife.


    We've seen across our country an increase in knife crime injuries, not as great a reduction as we've seen in London.

    I'm not complacent at all. I think it's really important to be tough on crime, invest in policing, and be tough on the complex causes of crime, invested in young people in youth workers and so forth.

    So the good news, no complacency, is we've seen in London a reduction in knife crime injuries, a reduction in knife crime injuries in those below 25.

    But also we've seen this year thankfully, we've actually seen a reduction in teenage homicides by investing in young people and youth workers, youth clubs. And that's why I'm determined to continue lobbying the Government to reverse their cuts in policing and to reverse their cuts in young people.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/06/bishopsgate-incident-multiple-people-injured-suspected-stabbing/

  • eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!

    IIRC 2010/11 was the last really freezing winter we had.
    I remember wrecking the office kitchen as a bought a 500ml bottle of pepsi in from the car and watched it freeze as I opened it and the reduced pressure allowed water to freeze (and spurt 3metres into the air)..
    Am I a bad person for thinking "Cool! Want to see it!"?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!

    IIRC 2010/11 was the last really freezing winter we had.
    I remember wrecking the office kitchen as a bought a 500ml bottle of pepsi in from the car and watched it freeze as I opened it and the reduced pressure allowed water to freeze (and spurt 3metres into the air)..
    I remember the winter of 1981-2. It got down to minus 25 in Shropshire. At that temperature, you can throw a pan of boiling water in the air - and it will come down as slivers of ice....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
    Just the one L in Miliband, Moon.
    It can never be just the one with some people.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited October 2022
    Sean_F said:

    For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!

    IIRC 2010/11 was the last really freezing winter we had.
    Weirdly, I suspect a 2010/11 winter would be worse than a 1963 one.

    1963 started quite late in the season and was mostly to do with the wind direction. Today's generation capacity might well have held up, although there would obviously be high demand for heating.

    2010 was a long period of nil wind and hard frosts around the solstice, which would be bad on all fronts.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!

    IIRC 2010/11 was the last really freezing winter we had.
    I remember wrecking the office kitchen as a bought a 500ml bottle of pepsi in from the car and watched it freeze as I opened it and the reduced pressure allowed water to freeze (and spurt 3metres into the air)..
    I remember the winter of 1981-2. It got down to minus 25 in Shropshire. At that temperature, you can throw a pan of boiling water in the air - and it will come down as slivers of ice....
    Think it was -18 when I pulled that trick - I wasn't popular when others arrived but it was rather spectacular watching ice appear from nowhere....
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited October 2022

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!

    IIRC 2010/11 was the last really freezing winter we had.
    I remember wrecking the office kitchen as a bought a 500ml bottle of pepsi in from the car and watched it freeze as I opened it and the reduced pressure allowed water to freeze (and spurt 3metres into the air)..
    Am I a bad person for thinking "Cool! Want to see it!"?
    Why did you think I did it - I'd noticed the issue the day before as I opened a bottle up but sealed it very quickly. The following day I just went all in...

    Edit to add - it's a better experiment than the mintos equivalent
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
    Just the one L in Miliband, Moon.
    It can never be just the one with some people.
    Ok I guess he does deserve a double L. As you were.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    kinabalu said:

    So did any PBers who are Con members actually vote for Liz as leader? Anybody here with the moral fibre to admit to that?

    Not me, but a lady at work is a Con member and liked Truss from the outset.
    She's now just of the opinion Truss hasn't been given time to settle in, and actually likes her 'mini-budget' (as was) and thinks she shouldn't have U-turned on the 45% rate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    @francis_scarr
    As countries around the world struggle with inflation, Alexander Lukashenko has this genius plan for Belarus:

    "From 6 October, all price increases are forbidden. Forbidden! From today. Not from tomorrow, from today. So that prices aren't driven up in the next 24 hours"


    https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1577988705742213120

    weirdly, I was talking about Ted Heath attempted pay and prices freeze just last night when I was tutoring A-level history.

    The key point I emphasised was that it didn't work.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    "We asked 100 people to name something that grows. You said pie...."
    #growthepie

    https://twitter.com/MrJonDePlume/status/1577687992327671810/photo/1


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157

    One of the key reasons I’m pleased at the Tories imploding is that it will hopefully discourage parties in future from using an electorally popular leader as a “gateway” candidate to win a GE, followed by a swift defenestration and the election of a more extreme PM.

    The country as a whole did not vote for all this Trussian cr*p in 2019. I’m not suggesting that the Tories should have stuck with Boris (they shouldn’t) but “vote Boris get Truss and trickle down economics taken to the max” would have been the furthest thing on voters minds when they cast their ballots in 2019.

    It's a perversion of democracy and no mistake. Although mitigated to an extent by the fact she probably won't be able to get much of it through.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    kinabalu said:

    So did any PBers who are Con members actually vote for Liz as leader? Anybody here with the moral fibre to admit to that?

    Not me, but a lady at work is a Con member and liked Truss from the outset.
    She's now just of the opinion Truss hasn't been given time to settle in, and actually likes her 'mini-budget' (as was) and thinks she shouldn't have U-turned on the 45% rate.
    Is she a colleague or a patient?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,084
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    The biggest contradiction in British Politics is that the Conservative party claim to be the party of 'growth'. Yet they fail to make the difficult decisions about how to achieve growth, IE through reform of the planning system.

    In planning, the main way in which 'growth' happens is through difficult decisions taken by pro growth local authorities who ram it through in urban areas (ie Birmingham), and the governments own planning Inspectors, who over-rule local Councils to allow large scale housing; and then get criticised and threatened with abolition by the Conservative Party - indeed I think Truss has already been complaining about them.

    The link below is todays example of this phenemenon. Councillors in Wealden refusing planning permission for development that was allocated in the plan that they approved a few years before. Local tory MP in on the act. Overturned by a planning Inspector.

    https://www.sussexexpress.co.uk/news/politics/appeal-decision-made-on-700-homes-on-outskirts-of-eastbourne-3860091

    Viewed in this context, the Conservative party are very far from being the party of growth, they are actually a backward anti growth party.


    The thing is that people want growth, but not at any price, especially if it adversely affects their environment.

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1576884679923286016?t=Uxi0w_s2GNHgMhrdUVnLZg&s=19


    What this data set shows is that if you ask questions, however simplistic, lots of people will give you an answer. It would be futile and meaningless to translate that into how any group of people X will feel about any actual situation Y.

    To govern is to choose. That is what governing does. It requires old fashioned virtues like wisdom, understanding complexity, courage, principle etc.

    That people want contradictory things and outcomes that compete with and negate each other is the normal, default setting for complex fairly liberal societies. Drilling down into those realities confirm the realities but resolve nothing. Only excellence in governing has any chance of doing that.

    Yes to all that. But, in addition, to govern, to lead, is to persuade. A good leader will get people on side for the right decision.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    Footage emerges of Liz Truss in her first job:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGex0kLgNok
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Joumanna Bercetche 🇱🇧
    @CNBCJou
    Deutsche Bank slash UK growth forecast -4.5% 2022, -0.5% 2023, +1% 2024
    ‘We now expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level only in 2024, with growth recovering to its trend rate (1.25%) around the middle of the decade’. (Narrator: that is *not 2.5%)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157

    kinabalu said:

    So did any PBers who are Con members actually vote for Liz as leader? Anybody here with the moral fibre to admit to that?

    Not me, but a lady at work is a Con member and liked Truss from the outset.
    She's now just of the opinion Truss hasn't been given time to settle in, and actually likes her 'mini-budget' (as was) and thinks she shouldn't have U-turned on the 45% rate.
    Fair enough. Sticking to her guns. From the deafening silence to my question - and it's been hours - I conclude nobody on here did vote for her then. Which surprises me. I'd have thought one or two would have.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
    If the lights go out, how will we be able to tell?
    Something of a relief.
    More opinion polls, @MoonRabbit ! More!
    Haven’t you had enough recently?

    Okay I can share a new poll from the web, on womens legs.
    Around 6% said they liked fat legs...
    Around 3% said they liked skinny legs
    The other 91% said they preferred something in between.
  • One of the key reasons I’m pleased at the Tories imploding is that it will hopefully discourage parties in future from using an electorally popular leader as a “gateway” candidate to win a GE, followed by a swift defenestration and the election of a more extreme PM.

    The country as a whole did not vote for all this Trussian cr*p in 2019. I’m not suggesting that the Tories should have stuck with Boris (they shouldn’t) but “vote Boris get Truss and trickle down economics taken to the max” would have been the furthest thing on voters minds when they cast their ballots in 2019.

    That is, of course, how Ken Livingstone became leader of the GLC.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    .
    eek said:

    Joumanna Bercetche 🇱🇧
    @CNBCJou
    Deutsche Bank slash UK growth forecast -4.5% 2022, -0.5% 2023, +1% 2024
    ‘We now expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level only in 2024, with growth recovering to its trend rate (1.25%) around the middle of the decade’. (Narrator: that is *not 2.5%)

    If only Deutsche Bank was as good at forecasting its own fortunes, eh?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,824
    eek said:

    Joumanna Bercetche 🇱🇧
    @CNBCJou
    Deutsche Bank slash UK growth forecast -4.5% 2022, -0.5% 2023, +1% 2024
    ‘We now expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level only in 2024, with growth recovering to its trend rate (1.25%) around the middle of the decade’. (Narrator: that is *not 2.5%)

    -4.5% in 2022? I think they've fucked up the maths. Even a fairly rapid deterioration from this point wouldn't lead that.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Scott_xP said:

    "We asked 100 people to name something that grows. You said pie...."
    #growthepie

    https://twitter.com/MrJonDePlume/status/1577687992327671810/photo/1


    That's not Liz Truss. She's wearing the wrong necklace.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,084

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    AlistairM said:

    I am shocked, what are the odds of this.

    A Home Office immigration official has been suspended after posting “vile” and “abhorrent” racist content on a WhatsApp group with former police officers.

    Rob Lewis, a former Metropolitan Police officer, is alleged to have created the group chat, which also included other ex-Met officers.

    The messages, uncovered by the BBC’s Newsnight, allegedly included racist and derogatory comments about the Duke and Duchess of Sussex and featured jokes about the government’s Rwanda policy and the recent flooding in Pakistan, in which almost 1,700 died.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/home-office-suspends-former-met-police-officer-rob-lewis-over-racist-and-vile-whatsapp-group-pq3bvr2h3

    If The Met was any other organisation it would have been proscribed.

    How can an organisation monitor and control what takes place on a private WhatsApp group? If they can't monitor and control it then how can they be responsible for it?
    They are responsible for employing the people behind the WhatsApp group.
    Is the Met responsible when the Met Pol Model Railway Society crashes their Hornby-Dublo Empress of Britain and scratches the paintwork?

    [edited] The alleged messages are infinitely more serious - but I can't see that the underlying logic is different, except that in the event that they are contrary to reputable and lawful conduct of a police officer (so the Met can only get involved retrospectively).

    Maybe a copyright/brandingname usage issue, too.
    I don’t think we want people who are abhorrently racist working for the Met or at the Home Office. Maybe those employers could do more to vet potential employees or to make it clear to existing employees what is acceptable?

    Quite so.
    While I can agree with this, if said racist behaves impeccably in their work, what offence is committed? We stray dangerously into thought crime areas.
    If said racist behaves impeccably in their work... but they never do, do they? We've seen again and again problems with Met officers *not* behaving impeccably in their work. This suggests the Met has a problem, which was the point being made.

    Employment law is clear that you can suspend/sack people for bringing the employer into disrepute. An offence does not need to have been committed.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited October 2022
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Joumanna Bercetche 🇱🇧
    @CNBCJou
    Deutsche Bank slash UK growth forecast -4.5% 2022, -0.5% 2023, +1% 2024
    ‘We now expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level only in 2024, with growth recovering to its trend rate (1.25%) around the middle of the decade’. (Narrator: that is *not 2.5%)

    -4.5% in 2022? I think they've fucked up the maths. Even a fairly rapid deterioration from this point wouldn't lead that.
    Perhaps they've looked at their own books and priced in a global crash?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,157
    Putin turns 70 tomorrow btw. Three score years and ten. Pity about that "ten", isn't it?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Icarus said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If you aren't plotting to save the next election - chances are you won't be in a position to be part of the opposition after the next election.

    Currently the Tory Party are heading into terminal wipe-out territory ...
    Next May's council elections may be the tipping point. If the Conservative lose a lot of councillors then the membership may turn on those responsible.
    It is worth remembering that the 2019 locals were truly dire for the Conservatives, so they probably don't have that far to fall:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    Neck and neck with Labour? A little bird tells me that they will do somewhat worse than that next time!
    Labour v Tory council wards will likely see significant Labour gains. Tory v LD or Tory v Independent or Tory v Green wards likely little change unless the Truss Tories fall even further behind by next May
    In our ward we have unseated two of the Tories in the past two years. I reckon we'll make it a hat-trick in May.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Joumanna Bercetche 🇱🇧
    @CNBCJou
    Deutsche Bank slash UK growth forecast -4.5% 2022, -0.5% 2023, +1% 2024
    ‘We now expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level only in 2024, with growth recovering to its trend rate (1.25%) around the middle of the decade’. (Narrator: that is *not 2.5%)

    -4.5% in 2022? I think they've fucked up the maths. Even a fairly rapid deterioration from this point wouldn't lead that.
    It's +4.5% this year not -4.5% (actually an upgrade). That number looks too strong to me though!
  • MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Joumanna Bercetche 🇱🇧
    @CNBCJou
    Deutsche Bank slash UK growth forecast -4.5% 2022, -0.5% 2023, +1% 2024
    ‘We now expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level only in 2024, with growth recovering to its trend rate (1.25%) around the middle of the decade’. (Narrator: that is *not 2.5%)

    -4.5% in 2022? I think they've fucked up the maths. Even a fairly rapid deterioration from this point wouldn't lead that.
    I think the tweet is wrong. See chart here:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1578015733463670785
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: National Grid warns households could face three-hour power cuts this winter if Russia shuts off gas supplies and UK has a cold snap.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1578008175923658756

    BUT LIZ PROMISED US NO BLACKOUTS
    Will Ed Milliband still have to take his shirt off if the lights go out?
    If the lights go out, how will we be able to tell?
    Something of a relief.
    More opinion polls, @MoonRabbit ! More!
    Haven’t you had enough recently?

    Okay I can share a new poll from the web, on womens legs.
    Around 6% said they liked fat legs...
    Around 3% said they liked skinny legs
    The other 91% said they preferred something in between.
    I love the Vaccines
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    @mariatad
    In Prague, Macron now pitches «strategic intimacy» to partners and allies. That’s a quote.


    https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1577987955452514305
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!

    IIRC 2010/11 was the last really freezing winter we had.
    I remember wrecking the office kitchen as a bought a 500ml bottle of pepsi in from the car and watched it freeze as I opened it and the reduced pressure allowed water to freeze (and spurt 3metres into the air)..
    I remember the winter of 1981-2. It got down to minus 25 in Shropshire. At that temperature, you can throw a pan of boiling water in the air - and it will come down as slivers of ice....
    Surely the pan comes down still as a pan?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    edited October 2022

    Sean_F said:

    For younger readers, a reminder of what a good, old-fashioned British winter could be like:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huDcBtsw-o

    I had a 100% school attendance record. It was warmer than our house!

    IIRC 2010/11 was the last really freezing winter we had.
    Weirdly, I suspect a 2010/11 winter would be worse than a 1963 one.

    1963 started quite late in the season and was mostly to do with the wind direction. Today's generation capacity might well have held up, although there would obviously be high demand for heating.

    2010 was a long period of nil wind and hard frosts around the solstice, which would be bad on all fronts.
    I think something like 2013 would be difficult too. A relatively cold calm winter but nothing special - enough to draw down gas reserves. Then a very cold and protracted spring with heating
    demand way above normal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    powercuts = no internet = end of days

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,084
    Jonathan said:

    powercuts = no internet = end of days

    Preserve power for mobile phone masts, cut off everything else. Problem solved.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    NEW THREAD
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    Joumanna Bercetche 🇱🇧
    @CNBCJou
    Deutsche Bank slash UK growth forecast -4.5% 2022, -0.5% 2023, +1% 2024
    ‘We now expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level only in 2024, with growth recovering to its trend rate (1.25%) around the middle of the decade’. (Narrator: that is *not 2.5%)

    -4.5% in 2022? I think they've fucked up the maths. Even a fairly rapid deterioration from this point wouldn't lead that.
    Yes, growth is up 4.4% year on year.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Going to be a tough winter for Russian soldiers.

    ⚡️Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov: "We have precise information from our Turkish partners that Russians tried to order 200 thousand flak jackets and 500 thousand sets of winter clothes through third countries. It means that they have a problem with this.”
    “Turkish partners, by the way, refused them.”

    https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1578014010053603328
This discussion has been closed.