Bank of England Deputy Governor Cunliffe writes to Treasury Committee..
Includes diagram showing centrality of the “fiscal event” ie mini budget to acceleration of bond yields, and “liquidity conditions were v poor”compares to US & euro, and shows impact of BoE intervention https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1577952520865021952/photo/1
The period between the mini budget and the following Wednesday saw “two daily increases in 30 year gilt yields of more than 35 basis points. The biggest daily increase before last week in the data that goes back to 2000 was 29 basis points.” BoE’s Cunliffe
“Measured over a 4 day period, the increase in 30Y gilt yields was more than twice as large as largest move since 2000, which occurred during ‘dash for cash’ in 2020. It was more than 3 times larger than any other historical move. Gilt market functioning was severely stretched”
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
I think the smart answer is no one knows do they? It’s linked to the weather.
But the Tory position of not pushing energy savings very seriously looks like a bad one either way.
It is crazy. I guess one factor is the lack of gas storage, which limits the benefits of reducing usage. We don't do being prepared very well as a country.
Speculation or is something happening? If Ukraine goes here then they split the Russians. Those in Crimea and Kherson will only have the Kerch bridge for supplies.
Indeed. D Cummings rightly said L Truss was bonkers because aiming to reconquer Crimea meant nuclear war, WW3. Which half the main posters here too are also pushing for.
Really? I assumed it was because she thought he was a creepy liar who didn't have a clue what he was doing and told him so.
Both would be correct, of course. Truss is clearly bonkers and as for Cummings...
As for Cummings on Crimea, he's long been a Russophile. Indeed, he's so blatant in his pro-Russian stance he's even been accused of being an FSB agent (not very convincingly, I might add). That he should be arguing against trying to take some of the land they've nicked back off them is no surprise at all.
Don't you care what people want who actually live in Crimea? I ask because you don't mention them. Or is it just that Khrushchev - the man who said if he was English he'd vote Tory - transferred the territory to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 and therefore it must be good to use military force to eject the Russian state from it now?
Russophobia is far more of a danger in Britain than Russophilia - although, having said that, for many rightwing patriotic "sash windows and cricket are best" droolers the fact that the foreign country in this instance is Russia doesn't matter much. They'd have the same attitude if it was France or Spain or Ireland.
Finally there is a double Conservative by-election following the retirement of Lord Astor of Hever and the death of the Earl of Home.
The election will be held on 20th October with the electorate being the existing 43 herediary conservative peers. Voting is by STV. We currently have 22 candidates.
The only candidate standing in this election who is not standing in the earlier whole house election is Lord Biddulph. The two candidates elected in the earlier byelection will not be on the ballot paper for this by-election.
Biddulph, L. A new King, a new area, the work of the House of Lords continues. I am particularly interested in the economy and human rights.
That's dishonest and I'm tired of that claim just being put out there as an "easy solution". You cannot just join the single market overnight as Sadiq claims.
Yes, we're already pretty aligned but it would still require coming to an agreement which would take at minimum a couple of years by which time this crisis will have played out.
I'm not even going to go onto the unpopularity of the idea that the world's sixth largest economy would have no say in much of the goods and services rules that it has to implement and follow.
It's not going to happen, so the pro-SM diehards like Sadiq should engage with whatever SKS is planning as a relationship with the EU rather than head in the clouds/sand because I want a better relationship with the EU too, but I'm realistic as to how far we can politically go.
Rough Scottish Seat Prediction: SNP - 49 (+1) Labour - 7 (+6) Lib Dems - 3 (-1) Tories lose all 6 Scottish Seats.
Labour is coming home
Lib Dems benefit from the collapse of the Tory vote the most, I woild imagine they dont drop amy seats and could easily pick 1 (or more, need the get the spreadsheet out).
Of course my thinking is based on old boundaries so many notnsurvive updated constituency lines.
An understanding of the new boundaries is crucial, especially when assessing Scottish Lib Dem prospects. The new boundaries are a nightmare for them: Scotland only loses two seats in total (cf Wales), but both of them are SLD losses.
The new boundaries are incredibly cruel to the Unionist parties.
Where you are correct is that SCon to SLD tactical unwind is going to be humongous. It is profoundly unlikely to gain them any seats, but may well give them some stunning second places in eg the North East and the Borders.
Bank of England Deputy Governor Cunliffe writes to Treasury Committee..
Includes diagram showing centrality of the “fiscal event” ie mini budget to acceleration of bond yields, and “liquidity conditions were v poor”compares to US & euro, and shows impact of BoE intervention https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1577952520865021952/photo/1
The period between the mini budget and the following Wednesday saw “two daily increases in 30 year gilt yields of more than 35 basis points. The biggest daily increase before last week in the data that goes back to 2000 was 29 basis points.” BoE’s Cunliffe
“Measured over a 4 day period, the increase in 30Y gilt yields was more than twice as large as largest move since 2000, which occurred during ‘dash for cash’ in 2020. It was more than 3 times larger than any other historical move. Gilt market functioning was severely stretched”
“mini budget to acceleration of bond yields‘
To be very honest, the trajectory already seemed determinedly Moving On Up for a very long time, you have to concede that?
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the suoth. I guess they can go hang then?
On another forum I read there is a story about the slow death of a firm in the South West.
Firstly they were unable to find local warehouse staff now they can't find local middle management because although the pay isn't great everyone locally is working and no-one with suitable expertise / qualifications is able to move into the area for the £60,000 that is being offered...
And that isn't 1 role it's about 4 at the moment with another 6-8 approaching retirement in the next few years. High house prices are going to destroy many companies because it's impossible to find qualified local staff...
Rough Scottish Seat Prediction: SNP - 49 (+1) Labour - 7 (+6) Lib Dems - 3 (-1) Tories lose all 6 Scottish Seats.
Labour is coming home
Lib Dems benefit from the collapse of the Tory vote the most, I woild imagine they dont drop amy seats and could easily pick 1 (or more, need the get the spreadsheet out).
Of course my thinking is based on old boundaries so many notnsurvive updated constituency lines.
An understanding of the new boundaries is crucial, especially when assessing Scottish Lib Dem prospects. The new boundaries are a nightmare for them: Scotland only loses two seats in total (cf Wales), but both of them are SLD losses.
The new boundaries are incredibly cruel to the Unionist parties.
Where you are correct is that SCon to SLD tactical unwind is going to be humongous. It is profoundly unlikely to gain them any seats, but may well give them some stunning second places in eg the North East and the Borders.
On current boundaries on the Scotland in Union poll Labour would gain 10 SNP seats
Oh dear, Conservative Home seems to have twigged that Growth, Growth, Growth is pretty meaningless to voters. https://tinyurl.com/cdvpzrpx
Even if Growth magically happened, which is unlikely because of increased Interest rates and falling demand, it would not be measurable by the time of the next General election.
They also seem to be figuring out that Brexit has not been all that was promised and no sunnily-lit uplands beckon...
Real Conservativism is not pure libertarianism Team Truss. Macmillan or Disraeli for example were hardly capitalist in tooth and claw but still traditional Tories
Libertarian Conservatism is a decent chunk of the UK voter political spectrum, but it’s not big enough to achieve a majority in the House.
All parties are coalitions of interest groups that agree to bury their differences in the interests of getting some of what they want out of the system. That Truss doesn’t seem to understand this & thinks that her brand of Conservatism is the only one that matters is telling.
Indeed, even the top 10% of income earners, let alone the top 1% will only get you to the LDs score at the last general election and they, if they are socially liberal, are the voters most likely to back libertarianism. Ultra low taxes and not that bothered about public services they rarely use. However they are nowhere near enough for a majority
To be very honest, the trajectory already seemed determinedly Moving On Up for a very long time, you have to concede that?
“On Wednesday 28 September the intraday range of the yield on 30 year gilts of 127 basis points was higher than the annual range for 30 year gilts in all but 4 of the last 27 years”
Ie gilts (UK 30Y Govt borrowing) moved more in a day than they have in 23 of the past 27 YEARS…
Indeed. D Cummings rightly said L Truss was bonkers because aiming to reconquer Crimea meant nuclear war, WW3. Which half the main posters here too are also pushing for.
Really? I assumed it was because she thought he was a creepy liar who didn't have a clue what he was doing and told him so.
Both would be correct, of course. Truss is clearly bonkers and as for Cummings...
As for Cummings on Crimea, he's long been a Russophile. Indeed, he's so blatant in his pro-Russian stance he's even been accused of being an FSB agent (not very convincingly, I might add). That he should be arguing against trying to take some of the land they've nicked back off them is no surprise at all.
Don't you care what people want who actually live in Crimea? I ask because you don't mention them. Or is it just that Khrushchev - the man who said if he was English he'd vote Tory - transferred the territory to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 and therefore it must be good to use military force to eject the Russian state from it now?
Russophobia is far more of a danger in Britain than Russophilia - although, having said that, for many rightwing patriotic "sash windows and cricket are best" droolers the fact that the foreign country in this instance is Russia doesn't matter much. They'd have the same attitude if it was France or Spain or Ireland.
When they were asked, in the one time they were asked in a legal referendum, they wanted to stay with Ukraine.
If they want to rejoin Russia, fine. Let them have a lawful vote on the subject. Monitored by the UN. When it has been handed back to Ukraine. And if they vote to join Russia, let that vote be respected.
I should perhaps point out that in 1954 Khrushchev was putting right an historical issue whereby Crimea had been transferred to the Russian SSR from the Ukrainian SSR in 1921 to cut it off from the Black Sea. This had been highly damaging to Crimea and not great for Ukraine. Coupled with massive ethnic cleansing on Stalin's orders in the 1940s, Crimea was in a really sorry state in 1954 and urgently needed to be transferred back to Ukraine for administrative and economic reasons. It has, therefore, been part of Ukraine for far longer than it was ever part of Russia.
You should also not confuse 'Russophobia' with 'hatred of the current fascist regime of third rate kleptocrats currently in power in Moscow.'
Incidentally of your 37 posts 36 have been about Russia, and you do seem to get very worked up about it when anyone questions the integrity of its government. May I ask why?
I think the smart answer is no one knows do they? It’s linked to the weather.
But the Tory position of not pushing energy savings very seriously looks like a bad one either way.
Tories believe in the market. Energy prices have gone up for many people (not me yet, until Dec). They will be reducing the demand. Blankets on the sofa, turning down the thermostat etc. By not having a campaign, as such, the government are not being the bad guy telling you to use less energy (while no doubt having Westminster heated to 25 deg C, and lights on all the time). Makes sense to me.
Some people do run homes at absurd temperatures. Even on the BBC yesterday they were at a typical house and the thermostat was sat at 23 deg C.
I find the R&W regional figures rather puzzling. I'd expect Truss to be doing much worse in Wales and London but in fact she's doing worse in the very leave/red wall areas. Or is it that she was so low in London anyway that it couldn't fall much further?
I hope it's worse in Leave/Red Wall areas because finally, finally, people are beginning to accept that the herds of unicorns they were promised if they voted for Brexit have vanished forever, to be replaced by the bitter reality of being screwed, yet again, by the Tories.
People aren't daft. They know they were conned. It's taken a bit longer than I expected but I think we're there now.
And that “con” as you have called it has doomed the Tories for a generation.
They had a golden opportunity laid out before them after 2019 - they had just brought into the fold a huge raft of seats that had never had a Tory MP before. That was the time to solidify those gains and refine Conservatism for the 21st century. If they had gotten it right, they could have fundamentally solidified an electoral coalition to see them, if not in government, retaining a firm bedrock of support for the next 2 to 3 decades.
But the party proved itself fundamentally incapable of understanding that change (ironic given the name) and doubled down on the old fashioned Tory bingo sheet. The election of Truss and her tick box conference speech (low tax, bigger slice of the cake for all, less government - check check check), just demonstrates this.
This is why they deserve to lose the red wall. I do rather fear by missing this opportunity they have doomed themselves to a long time in the wilderness. People will not make the same mistake twice.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
I made ALL my own money. Bought my flat with it
Mind you, that came after 2 decades of me spunking (sometimes literally) my Dad’s money on hookers and blow, so I can empathise with both sides
Nonetheless my most serious contempt is reserved for those who inherit and contrive to boast about it. Twats
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
Rough Scottish Seat Prediction: SNP - 49 (+1) Labour - 7 (+6) Lib Dems - 3 (-1) Tories lose all 6 Scottish Seats.
Labour is coming home
Lib Dems benefit from the collapse of the Tory vote the most, I woild imagine they dont drop amy seats and could easily pick 1 (or more, need the get the spreadsheet out).
Of course my thinking is based on old boundaries so many notnsurvive updated constituency lines.
An understanding of the new boundaries is crucial, especially when assessing Scottish Lib Dem prospects. The new boundaries are a nightmare for them: Scotland only loses two seats in total (cf Wales), but both of them are SLD losses.
The new boundaries are incredibly cruel to the Unionist parties.
Where you are correct is that SCon to SLD tactical unwind is going to be humongous. It is profoundly unlikely to gain them any seats, but may well give them some stunning second places in eg the North East and the Borders.
On current boundaries on the Scotland in Union poll Labour would gain 10 SNP seats
No date yet for the next round of consultations on the Scottish constituencies for the UK parliament.
The English boundary commission will be consulting on 8 November, the Welsh on 19 October and the Northern Irish during the week commencing 14 November.
Indeed. D Cummings rightly said L Truss was bonkers because aiming to reconquer Crimea meant nuclear war, WW3. Which half the main posters here too are also pushing for.
Really? I assumed it was because she thought he was a creepy liar who didn't have a clue what he was doing and told him so.
Both would be correct, of course. Truss is clearly bonkers and as for Cummings...
As for Cummings on Crimea, he's long been a Russophile. Indeed, he's so blatant in his pro-Russian stance he's even been accused of being an FSB agent (not very convincingly, I might add). That he should be arguing against trying to take some of the land they've nicked back off them is no surprise at all.
Don't you care what people want who actually live in Crimea? I ask because you don't mention them. Or is it just that Khrushchev - the man who said if he was English he'd vote Tory - transferred the territory to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954 and therefore it must be good to use military force to eject the Russian state from it now?
Russophobia is far more of a danger in Britain than Russophilia - although, having said that, for many rightwing patriotic "sash windows and cricket are best" droolers the fact that the foreign country in this instance is Russia doesn't matter much. They'd have the same attitude if it was France or Spain or Ireland.
When they were asked, in the one time they were asked in a legal referendum, they wanted to stay with Ukraine.
If they want to rejoin Russia, fine. Let them have a lawful vote on the subject. Monitored by the UN. When it has been handed back to Ukraine. And if they vote to join Russia, let that vote be respected.
I should perhaps point out that in 1954 Khrushchev was putting right an historical issue whereby Crimea had been transferred to the Russian SSR from the Ukrainian SSR in 1921 to cut it off from the Black Sea. This had been highly damaging to Crimea and not great for Ukraine. Coupled with massive ethnic cleansing on Stalin's orders in the 1940s, Crimea was in a really sorry state in 1954 and urgently needed to be transferred back to Ukraine for administrative and economic reasons. It has, therefore, been part of Ukraine for far longer than it was ever part of Russia.
You should also not confuse 'Russophobia' with 'hatred of the current fascist regime of third rate kleptocrats currently in power in Moscow.'
Incidentally of your 37 posts 36 have been about Russia, and you do seem to get very worked up about it when anyone questions the integrity of its government. May I ask why?
Isn't that obvious - he's this week's Russian Troll...
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
I made ALL my own money. Bought my flat with it
Mind you, that came after 2 decades of me spunking (sometimes literally) my Dad’s money on hookers and blow, so I can empathise with both sides
Nonetheless my most serious contempt is reserved for those who inherit and contrive to boast about it. Twats
Ditto, except for the inheritance, hookers and blow obviously.
Isn’t it inevitable that Liz Truss will recover through dint of not appearing on our screens for a bit. As the polls turn she will claim momentum. Her cheerleaders in the Mail will claim popularity and we will be told she is winning. It is easy to predict and pretty dismal.
Obviously then she will then confidently pop up on our screens give a speech and launch a policy and remind us all why she is unfit for office.
This is Peak Starmer.
Good morning
There is only one way this is going and it is not in favour of Sturgeon as Scots return to their labour roots now they have an electable leader
What Labour roots? Labour have started picking Orangemen as councillors. That would be unheard of in the old days.
Don’t doubt the Big G, once he’s made his mind up about something it happens. Unless it doesn’t happen then he changes his mind, see his party the Cons and which ever stinking bin fire they appoint as leader/pm.leader/pm.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
So you want to send them all North. Who is going to empty your bins and nurse you in hospital?
I find the R&W regional figures rather puzzling. I'd expect Truss to be doing much worse in Wales and London but in fact she's doing worse in the very leave/red wall areas. Or is it that she was so low in London anyway that it couldn't fall much further?
I hope it's worse in Leave/Red Wall areas because finally, finally, people are beginning to accept that the herds of unicorns they were promised if they voted for Brexit have vanished forever, to be replaced by the bitter reality of being screwed, yet again, by the Tories.
People aren't daft. They know they were conned. It's taken a bit longer than I expected but I think we're there now.
This may be true - I think it is, as Brexit was managed abominably on all sides (an epic parliamentary fail). But moving on, the fascinating question is the detail of how a Labour government, whose baggage of the past on this issue is mixed but certainly does not point in a hardish Brexit direction, will deal with it when (I hope) a GE hands them the murky chalice.
To be very honest, the trajectory already seemed determinedly Moving On Up for a very long time, you have to concede that?
“On Wednesday 28 September the intraday range of the yield on 30 year gilts of 127 basis points was higher than the annual range for 30 year gilts in all but 4 of the last 27 years”
Ie gilts (UK 30Y Govt borrowing) moved more in a day than they have in 23 of the past 27 YEARS…
No let’s play fair here, no selective quoting, that measures that chart been moving on up for a long time.
To be very honest, the trajectory already seemed determinedly Moving On Up for a very long time, you have to concede that?
“On Wednesday 28 September the intraday range of the yield on 30 year gilts of 127 basis points was higher than the annual range for 30 year gilts in all but 4 of the last 27 years”
Ie gilts (UK 30Y Govt borrowing) moved more in a day than they have in 23 of the past 27 YEARS…
No let’s play fair here, no selective quoting, that measures that chart been moving on up for a long time.
Not that you will believe us...
But just because the market was moving up doesn't irradicate the argument that the Mini budget increased the risk premium of the UK economy by 60-120 base points compared to the situation before the speech,,,
Bank of England Deputy Governor Cunliffe writes to Treasury Committee..
Includes diagram showing centrality of the “fiscal event” ie mini budget to acceleration of bond yields, and “liquidity conditions were v poor”compares to US & euro, and shows impact of BoE intervention https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1577952520865021952/photo/1
The period between the mini budget and the following Wednesday saw “two daily increases in 30 year gilt yields of more than 35 basis points. The biggest daily increase before last week in the data that goes back to 2000 was 29 basis points.” BoE’s Cunliffe
“Measured over a 4 day period, the increase in 30Y gilt yields was more than twice as large as largest move since 2000, which occurred during ‘dash for cash’ in 2020. It was more than 3 times larger than any other historical move. Gilt market functioning was severely stretched”
“mini budget to acceleration of bond yields‘
To be very honest, the trajectory already seemed determinedly Moving On Up for a very long time, you have to concede that?
Eyeballing it, the MPC decision muddies it a bit, but I'd expect a diff in diff or ITS to finger the 'fiscal event' - there is a jump after MPC decsion, but also in the US and Euro area yields which then, for them, flattens off. the step change at the 'fiscal event' is also somewhat telling.
All the lines have been 'moving on up' for a longer period, but I think it's hard to argue that the UK alone doesn't have a step change in pace of rise.
I don't think that person has ever been a supply teacher. If they're there from the start it's usually less of a problem. It's when they arrive a couple of months in that it gets tough.
Especially when they are replacing a teacher who was charismatic and popular, but who let his class get away with murder and ended up being bundled out on gardening leave with no warning and no real explanation.
Besides, good supply teachers are absolute stars, Truss really isn't.
Worth posting this to highlight what is going to be a big problem over the winter
John Bull @garius Central government keeps banging on about local authorities needing to find 'cost savings' yet the biggest cost inefficiency local authorities have right now is energy bills going from, say, £6m to £20m.
The UK being legit good at energy would have HUGE knock-ons down the chain
The increase in energy prices has removed any flexibility councils have to make savings - because they are already doing everything they can to find enough savings to pay the heating bills.
Monson, L. Media and public relations specialist. Campaigns to create awareness of mental health dangers from use of high potency cannabis. Successfully campaigned to overturn wrongful verdict on son’s death in Kenyan prison. Four Kenyan police officers jailed last November. Started charitable initiative, help4ukraine. So far bought and sent to Ukraine 25 ambulances freighted with medical aid. Charity commended publicly by Ukraine Ambassador to UK. 5 Norwich, V. Graduated from Oxford, I retrained as an architect, and then worked with several large practices before establishing my own in 1995. Specialising in environmental design and engineering for 25 years, we are now developing an ultra-light, pedal-electric city car. Politically independent, if elected I would be an active member in these areas, and seek Select Committee work. I am 62, live in London, and have a strong interest in music and the arts.
Rochdale, V. Award-winning education entrepreneur: 24 years, developed scientifically proven techniques helping professionals and students think more clearly and better understand new information. Masters' degree: International Finance, trade, shipping. Specific focus on joint ventures in China. Proficiency in Mandarin. Public service: Metropolitan Police, 12 years (commendations for bravery and investigative ability). Passionate: Dyslexia, Mental health - depression, bipolar, addiction (four lived experiences). Social justice, environment and climate. I am Independent, London-based, and fully committed to the House.
Walpole, L. I am 54 years old. My mother, Judith Chaplin MP, represented Newbury from 1992 until her untimely death in 1993. My father sat as a crossbench peer from 1989 until 2017. I am an independent political thinker. Employment: financial analyst, teacher and writer (MA and PhD upgrade). Fluent in French. I would commit to being a full-time working peer.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
Monson, L. Media and public relations specialist. Campaigns to create awareness of mental health dangers from use of high potency cannabis. Successfully campaigned to overturn wrongful verdict on son’s death in Kenyan prison. Four Kenyan police officers jailed last November. Started charitable initiative, help4ukraine. So far bought and sent to Ukraine 25 ambulances freighted with medical aid. Charity commended publicly by Ukraine Ambassador to UK. 5 Norwich, V. Graduated from Oxford, I retrained as an architect, and then worked with several large practices before establishing my own in 1995. Specialising in environmental design and engineering for 25 years, we are now developing an ultra-light, pedal-electric city car. Politically independent, if elected I would be an active member in these areas, and seek Select Committee work. I am 62, live in London, and have a strong interest in music and the arts.
Rochdale, V. Award-winning education entrepreneur: 24 years, developed scientifically proven techniques helping professionals and students think more clearly and better understand new information. Masters' degree: International Finance, trade, shipping. Specific focus on joint ventures in China. Proficiency in Mandarin. Public service: Metropolitan Police, 12 years (commendations for bravery and investigative ability). Passionate: Dyslexia, Mental health - depression, bipolar, addiction (four lived experiences). Social justice, environment and climate. I am Independent, London-based, and fully committed to the House.
Walpole, L. I am 54 years old. My mother, Judith Chaplin MP, represented Newbury from 1992 until her untimely death in 1993. My father sat as a crossbench peer from 1989 until 2017. I am an independent political thinker. Employment: financial analyst, teacher and writer (MA and PhD upgrade). Fluent in French. I would commit to being a full-time working peer.
Worth posting this to highlight what is going to be a big problem over the winter
John Bull @garius Central government keeps banging on about local authorities needing to find 'cost savings' yet the biggest cost inefficiency local authorities have right now is energy bills going from, say, £6m to £20m.
The UK being legit good at energy would have HUGE knock-ons down the chain
The increase in energy prices has removed any flexibility councils have to make savings - because they are already doing everything they can to find enough savings to pay the heating bills.
Could be. I have bet she will be out by end of year, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the party is so split that a coronation will not be allowed. Braverman basically looks like she will run no matter what. I guess the grey suits might find a way around this and for time being I am keeping my bet in place as it is only beer money.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
So you still weren't in the category after 40 then even if you were before and your wife still was
The OPEC decision won’t help if it leads to a big increase in gas prices . The Democrats might be saved in certain Senate seats by the fact Trump supported GOP candidates have been by and large hopeless with very extreme positions on abortion .
The worst case of Inherited Boasting I have ever seen, on this forum, is @JackW
I don’t like to be mean to a venerable PB-er who is not here to defend himself but, fuck it. He used to boast about foreign honours - the “ancient order of the Maltese sporran-makers” - given to him solely because he’s an aristo with inherited money. Like someone proudly displaying a medal, awarded to them them for having won a nice refrigerator in a lottery
Grotesque, juvenile and existentially embarrassing
Real Conservativism is not pure libertarianism Team Truss. Macmillan or Disraeli for example were hardly capitalist in tooth and claw but still traditional Tories
But it does seem a lot of the red wall MPs are in it for the free money on the side of a bus, with no particular clue as to how society should arrange itself.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the suoth. I guess they can go hang then?
On another forum I read there is a story about the slow death of a firm in the South West.
Firstly they were unable to find local warehouse staff now they can't find local middle management because although the pay isn't great everyone locally is working and no-one with suitable expertise / qualifications is able to move into the area for the £60,000 that is being offered...
And that isn't 1 role it's about 4 at the moment with another 6-8 approaching retirement in the next few years. High house prices are going to destroy many companies because it's impossible to find qualified local staff...
A corollary of that is that owner-occupation is bad for the economy insofar as, even in good times, it acts as a brake on labour mobility. Germany has a much larger rented sector, so it is easier to move for work. (Obviously, in these days of working from home and dual wage-earners, this is a simplistic analysis but not without a kernel of truth.)
It looks as if everything the Republicans hold in the Senate is solid, bar Pennsylvania.
Nevada looks as if it will be a Republican gain.
So, it comes down to Arizona and Georgia. The Democratic candidates for the Senate lead in both States, but so do the Republican candidates for Governor. Will many voters split their tickets?
Could be. I have bet she will be out by end of year, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the party is so split that a coronation will not be allowed. Braverman basically looks like she will run no matter what. I guess the grey suits might find a way around this and for time being I am keeping my bet in place as it is only beer money.
Yup, that’s the issue. If they’re horrendously divided then they can’t run the coronation. It would need an agreement in principle behind closed doors, maybe even promises of cabinet positions to make contenders fold.
I can see a situation where the party is so horrendously divided they just can’t ditch Truss. Though I suspect if the dire poll ratings continue into the new year that will start to concentrate minds.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
So you want to send them all North. Who is going to empty your bins and nurse you in hospital?
People who rent on the whole.
As I said even if you concrete all over the greenbelt or stop all immigration tomorrow property prices in London and the Home counties would still be more expensive for average earners than those north of Watford
The Democrats might be saved in certain Senate seats by the fact Trump supported GOP candidates have been by and large hopeless with very extreme positions on abortion .
Or rather the combination of extreme positions on abortion, and extreme numbers of abortions paid for.
“This afternoon we should see the first post-speech polling and I would be very surprised if perceptions have moved.”
Personally I wouldn’t like to call wether it’s temporary polling change or largely permanent - John Curtice said the same yesterday.
It could prove like how a currency drops dramatically in hours, doesn’t jump back in hours but regains ground over days and weeks.
In Truss first week there was not dramatic movement on her coronation, she was largely seen as doing okay at PMQs, indeed the polls were showing uptick in her favour. Yes, they were. The more dramatic nature of the collapse seems to linked to one budget, in fact one budget measure which is now gone, so gradual recovery could happen.
Osborne had a “uber bad pasty budget” where Tory position was eroded to give Labour big leads, partly because the UKIP position was improved by the budget, but ultimately that bad budget drop unwound too.
If you are going to bet on poll movement, a gradual unwinding of the collapse (though not completely!) is the smart bet I think.
The problem that Truss and Kwarteng face is that they will have to announce swingeing public service cuts in November.
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the suoth. I guess they can go hang then?
On another forum I read there is a story about the slow death of a firm in the South West.
Firstly they were unable to find local warehouse staff now they can't find local middle management because although the pay isn't great everyone locally is working and no-one with suitable expertise / qualifications is able to move into the area for the £60,000 that is being offered...
And that isn't 1 role it's about 4 at the moment with another 6-8 approaching retirement in the next few years. High house prices are going to destroy many companies because it's impossible to find qualified local staff...
A corollary of that is that owner-occupation is bad for the economy insofar as, even in good times, it acts as a brake on labour mobility. Germany has a much larger rented sector, so it is easier to move for work. (Obviously, in these days of working from home and dual wage-earners, this is a simplistic analysis but not without a kernel of truth.)
It's why a lot of people round here don't like stamp duty as it is a block of people moving.
The OPEC decision won’t help if it leads to a big increase in gas prices . The Democrats might be saved in certain Senate seats by the fact Trump supported GOP candidates have been by and large hopeless with very extreme positions on abortion .
The Republicans have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, with Senate candidate selection since 2010, yet as America becomes more polarised, so that matters less.
Worth posting this to highlight what is going to be a big problem over the winter
John Bull @garius Central government keeps banging on about local authorities needing to find 'cost savings' yet the biggest cost inefficiency local authorities have right now is energy bills going from, say, £6m to £20m.
The UK being legit good at energy would have HUGE knock-ons down the chain
The increase in energy prices has removed any flexibility councils have to make savings - because they are already doing everything they can to find enough savings to pay the heating bills.
Schools, Hospitals, etc all need heating.
Before the youtube video on that Caledonian Girls ad, I was treated to one of those dodgy Youtube ads on a plug in heating device that employs a 'perpetual energy loop' to reduce heating costs by 95%. The schoolboy who invented it was apparently expelled from school it was so good. It had people in white coats looking down microscopes and everything.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the suoth. I guess they can go hang then?
On another forum I read there is a story about the slow death of a firm in the South West.
Firstly they were unable to find local warehouse staff now they can't find local middle management because although the pay isn't great everyone locally is working and no-one with suitable expertise / qualifications is able to move into the area for the £60,000 that is being offered...
And that isn't 1 role it's about 4 at the moment with another 6-8 approaching retirement in the next few years. High house prices are going to destroy many companies because it's impossible to find qualified local staff...
Haven't any of their existing staff been trained so they are able to step up?
“This afternoon we should see the first post-speech polling and I would be very surprised if perceptions have moved.”
Personally I wouldn’t like to call wether it’s temporary polling change or largely permanent - John Curtice said the same yesterday.
It could prove like how a currency drops dramatically in hours, doesn’t jump back in hours but regains ground over days and weeks.
In Truss first week there was not dramatic movement on her coronation, she was largely seen as doing okay at PMQs, indeed the polls were showing uptick in her favour. Yes, they were. The more dramatic nature of the collapse seems to linked to one budget, in fact one budget measure which is now gone, so gradual recovery could happen.
Osborne had a “uber bad pasty budget” where Tory position was eroded to give Labour big leads, partly because the UKIP position was improved by the budget, but ultimately that bad budget drop unwound too.
If you are going to bet on poll movement, a gradual unwinding of the collapse (though not completely!) is the smart bet I think.
The problem that Truss and Kwarteng face is that they will have to announce swingeing public service cuts in November.
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
As Jacob Rees Mogg said: Brexit makes sense if you take a 50 year viewpoint (he was unwise to do so, albeit correct)
That’s how long it might take to a show a real net benefit. But it will show that benefit. Let’s reconvene in 2066
Could be. I have bet she will be out by end of year, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the party is so split that a coronation will not be allowed. Braverman basically looks like she will run no matter what. I guess the grey suits might find a way around this and for time being I am keeping my bet in place as it is only beer money.
They need Rishi in order to calm the markets. The young cardinals, old popes dictum suggests MPs might settle for Theresa May in a Michael Howard-like damage limitation role. Things might be clearer once Boris encounters the Privileges Committee.
“This afternoon we should see the first post-speech polling and I would be very surprised if perceptions have moved.”
Personally I wouldn’t like to call wether it’s temporary polling change or largely permanent - John Curtice said the same yesterday.
It could prove like how a currency drops dramatically in hours, doesn’t jump back in hours but regains ground over days and weeks.
In Truss first week there was not dramatic movement on her coronation, she was largely seen as doing okay at PMQs, indeed the polls were showing uptick in her favour. Yes, they were. The more dramatic nature of the collapse seems to linked to one budget, in fact one budget measure which is now gone, so gradual recovery could happen.
Osborne had a “uber bad pasty budget” where Tory position was eroded to give Labour big leads, partly because the UKIP position was improved by the budget, but ultimately that bad budget drop unwound too.
If you are going to bet on poll movement, a gradual unwinding of the collapse (though not completely!) is the smart bet I think.
The problem that Truss and Kwarteng face is that they will have to announce swingeing public service cuts in November.
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
It's a fair point, Keystone, but leads of 30+ are unsustainable in the long term for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which is that the Party in arrears will eventually be moved to do something about it.
But the news isn't going to get better and frankly I just don't see a way out of this for the Conservatives - no 'off-ramp' in the fashionable parlance.
Anything better than evens must be value for a Labour Overall Majority.
“This afternoon we should see the first post-speech polling and I would be very surprised if perceptions have moved.”
Personally I wouldn’t like to call wether it’s temporary polling change or largely permanent - John Curtice said the same yesterday.
It could prove like how a currency drops dramatically in hours, doesn’t jump back in hours but regains ground over days and weeks.
In Truss first week there was not dramatic movement on her coronation, she was largely seen as doing okay at PMQs, indeed the polls were showing uptick in her favour. Yes, they were. The more dramatic nature of the collapse seems to linked to one budget, in fact one budget measure which is now gone, so gradual recovery could happen.
Osborne had a “uber bad pasty budget” where Tory position was eroded to give Labour big leads, partly because the UKIP position was improved by the budget, but ultimately that bad budget drop unwound too.
If you are going to bet on poll movement, a gradual unwinding of the collapse (though not completely!) is the smart bet I think.
The problem that Truss and Kwarteng face is that they will have to announce swingeing public service cuts in November.
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
As Jacob Rees Mogg said: Brexit makes sense if you take a 50 year viewpoint (he was unwise to do so, albeit correct)
That’s how long it might take to a show a real net benefit. But it will show that benefit. Let’s reconvene in 2066
Given your love of AI surely you realise humans will not be in charge by then anyway?
The worst case of Inherited Boasting I have ever seen, on this forum, is @JackW
I don’t like to be mean to a venerable PB-er who is not here to defend himself but, fuck it. He used to boast about foreign honours - the “ancient order of the Maltese sporran-makers” - given to him solely because he’s an aristo with inherited money. Like someone proudly displaying a medal, awarded to them them for having won a nice refrigerator in a lottery
Grotesque, juvenile and existentially embarrassing
I find the R&W regional figures rather puzzling. I'd expect Truss to be doing much worse in Wales and London but in fact she's doing worse in the very leave/red wall areas. Or is it that she was so low in London anyway that it couldn't fall much further?
I hope it's worse in Leave/Red Wall areas because finally, finally, people are beginning to accept that the herds of unicorns they were promised if they voted for Brexit have vanished forever, to be replaced by the bitter reality of being screwed, yet again, by the Tories.
People aren't daft. They know they were conned. It's taken a bit longer than I expected but I think we're there now.
This may be true - I think it is, as Brexit was managed abominably on all sides (an epic parliamentary fail). But moving on, the fascinating question is the detail of how a Labour government, whose baggage of the past on this issue is mixed but certainly does not point in a hardish Brexit direction, will deal with it when (I hope) a GE hands them the murky chalice.
Yes, you're right. I hope a new (New?!) Labour government can begin to address the whole mess honestly. The current government can't because they're up to their elbows in it. The loons who wanted it for years are in charge. Their Singapore-on-Thames is going down like cold sick.
The Brexit omerta - which obvs doesn't apply to this august, refined forum - needs to go. We - the country as a whole - need to talk about Brexit. I know it's delivered for the likes of Leon and Barty, but many people out there aren't happy with where we are. At all.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
So you still weren't in the category after 40 then even if you were before and your wife still was
Yep I was (not that it matters) because I set up a business that meets your criteria completely. But I don't get this boasting stuff. What does it matter what I or my wife did? She certainly doesn't think of herself as being upper middle class nor I. Why does it matter to you?
“This afternoon we should see the first post-speech polling and I would be very surprised if perceptions have moved.”
Personally I wouldn’t like to call wether it’s temporary polling change or largely permanent - John Curtice said the same yesterday.
It could prove like how a currency drops dramatically in hours, doesn’t jump back in hours but regains ground over days and weeks.
In Truss first week there was not dramatic movement on her coronation, she was largely seen as doing okay at PMQs, indeed the polls were showing uptick in her favour. Yes, they were. The more dramatic nature of the collapse seems to linked to one budget, in fact one budget measure which is now gone, so gradual recovery could happen.
Osborne had a “uber bad pasty budget” where Tory position was eroded to give Labour big leads, partly because the UKIP position was improved by the budget, but ultimately that bad budget drop unwound too.
If you are going to bet on poll movement, a gradual unwinding of the collapse (though not completely!) is the smart bet I think.
The problem that Truss and Kwarteng face is that they will have to announce swingeing public service cuts in November.
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
As Jacob Rees Mogg said: Brexit makes sense if you take a 50 year viewpoint (he was unwise to do so, albeit correct)
That’s how long it might take to a show a real net benefit. But it will show that benefit. Let’s reconvene in 2066
Yes let's have my kids living under this shit for most of their working lives and then we can decide. No.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
So you still weren't in the category after 40 then even if you were before and your wife still was
Yep I was (not that it matters) because I set up a business that meets your criteria completely. But I don't get this boasting stuff. What does it matter what I or my wife did? She certainly doesn't think of herself as being upper middle class not I. Why does it matter to you?
As you were not both in the category able to help your children with deposits for expensive London or Home counties properties at the time they needed it
“This afternoon we should see the first post-speech polling and I would be very surprised if perceptions have moved.”
Personally I wouldn’t like to call wether it’s temporary polling change or largely permanent - John Curtice said the same yesterday.
It could prove like how a currency drops dramatically in hours, doesn’t jump back in hours but regains ground over days and weeks.
In Truss first week there was not dramatic movement on her coronation, she was largely seen as doing okay at PMQs, indeed the polls were showing uptick in her favour. Yes, they were. The more dramatic nature of the collapse seems to linked to one budget, in fact one budget measure which is now gone, so gradual recovery could happen.
Osborne had a “uber bad pasty budget” where Tory position was eroded to give Labour big leads, partly because the UKIP position was improved by the budget, but ultimately that bad budget drop unwound too.
If you are going to bet on poll movement, a gradual unwinding of the collapse (though not completely!) is the smart bet I think.
The problem that Truss and Kwarteng face is that they will have to announce swingeing public service cuts in November.
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
As Jacob Rees Mogg said: Brexit makes sense if you take a 50 year viewpoint (he was unwise to do so, albeit correct)
That’s how long it might take to a show a real net benefit. But it will show that benefit. Let’s reconvene in 2066
Yes let's have my kids living under this shit for most of their working lives and then we can decide. No.
This unprovability makes sense if you see Brexit as a state religion.
Could be. I have bet she will be out by end of year, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the party is so split that a coronation will not be allowed. Braverman basically looks like she will run no matter what. I guess the grey suits might find a way around this and for time being I am keeping my bet in place as it is only beer money.
They need Rishi in order to calm the markets. The young cardinals, old popes dictum suggests MPs might settle for Theresa May in a Michael Howard-like damage limitation role. Things might be clearer once Boris encounters the Privileges Committee.
Wallace PM, Sunak back as Chancellor is the only possible replacement for Truss and Kwarteng that might produce a poll bounce and also not split the party
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1577966030890143745 Andrea Leadsom MP @andrealeadsom I share my constituents' concerns about the proposed change to the DCO for Northampton Gateway. If the change is granted, a devastating precedent will be set, alongside a negative effect on noise/air pollution, traffic, and a cumulative impact on other development projects.
Liz's speech yesterday is just going to keep on giving as anything that stops any building project can be included in it...
Could be. I have bet she will be out by end of year, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the party is so split that a coronation will not be allowed. Braverman basically looks like she will run no matter what. I guess the grey suits might find a way around this and for time being I am keeping my bet in place as it is only beer money.
They need Rishi in order to calm the markets. The young cardinals, old popes dictum suggests MPs might settle for Theresa May in a Michael Howard-like damage limitation role. Things might be clearer once Boris encounters the Privileges Committee.
Wallace PM, Sunak back as Chancellor is the only possible replacement for Truss and Kwarteng that might produce a poll bounce and also not split the party
You are probably right, Hyufd, and even that might not work.
The worst case of Inherited Boasting I have ever seen, on this forum, is @JackW
I don’t like to be mean to a venerable PB-er who is not here to defend himself but, fuck it. He used to boast about foreign honours - the “ancient order of the Maltese sporran-makers” - given to him solely because he’s an aristo with inherited money. Like someone proudly displaying a medal, awarded to them them for having won a nice refrigerator in a lottery
Grotesque, juvenile and existentially embarrassing
Old money always seeks ways to distinguish itself from the nouveau riche new money
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
kjh is Tom Good, who in 1970s sitcom The Good Life quit his job at 40 having paid off the mortgage on what would now be a £2-3 million house. AICMFP.
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
So you still weren't in the category after 40 then even if you were before and your wife still was
Yep I was (not that it matters) because I set up a business that meets your criteria completely. But I don't get this boasting stuff. What does it matter what I or my wife did? She certainly doesn't think of herself as being upper middle class not I. Why does it matter to you?
As you were not both in the category able to help your children with deposits for expensive London or Home counties properties at the time they needed it
If house prices down South were sane, parents wouldn't need to destroy their own finances to allow their children to buy a home and have a family..
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
So you still weren't in the category after 40 then even if you were before and your wife still was
Yep I was (not that it matters) because I set up a business that meets your criteria completely. But I don't get this boasting stuff. What does it matter what I or my wife did? She certainly doesn't think of herself as being upper middle class nor I. Why does it matter to you?
There are two kinds of rich people in my experience. Those who know only other rich people, usually because they have been born into it and they can't conceive of any other life. And those who have become rich by finding themselves in a well paid career or achieving success in business that exceeded their expectations, and live an otherwise normal kind of existence among the 99%. The latter group is probably more numerous but the former is more culturally dominant because they are organised.
“This afternoon we should see the first post-speech polling and I would be very surprised if perceptions have moved.”
Personally I wouldn’t like to call wether it’s temporary polling change or largely permanent - John Curtice said the same yesterday.
It could prove like how a currency drops dramatically in hours, doesn’t jump back in hours but regains ground over days and weeks.
In Truss first week there was not dramatic movement on her coronation, she was largely seen as doing okay at PMQs, indeed the polls were showing uptick in her favour. Yes, they were. The more dramatic nature of the collapse seems to linked to one budget, in fact one budget measure which is now gone, so gradual recovery could happen.
Osborne had a “uber bad pasty budget” where Tory position was eroded to give Labour big leads, partly because the UKIP position was improved by the budget, but ultimately that bad budget drop unwound too.
If you are going to bet on poll movement, a gradual unwinding of the collapse (though not completely!) is the smart bet I think.
The problem that Truss and Kwarteng face is that they will have to announce swingeing public service cuts in November.
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
As Jacob Rees Mogg said: Brexit makes sense if you take a 50 year viewpoint (he was unwise to do so, albeit correct)
That’s how long it might take to a show a real net benefit. But it will show that benefit. Let’s reconvene in 2066
Yes let's have my kids living under this shit for most of their working lives and then we can decide. No.
Well, you’re stuck with it. Sorry
So we will have plenty of time to see if I’m right
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1577966030890143745 Andrea Leadsom MP @andrealeadsom I share my constituents' concerns about the proposed change to the DCO for Northampton Gateway. If the change is granted, a devastating precedent will be set, alongside a negative effect on noise/air pollution, traffic, and a cumulative impact on other development projects.
Liz's speech yesterday is just going to keep on giving as anything that stops any building project can be included in it...
It does show that Truss is broadly correct. Even her own pro-growth party is anti-growth in practice. I don't think any mainstream UK political party is really pro-growth, they can all find a reason for doing nothing and kicking problems into the long grass.
Could be. I have bet she will be out by end of year, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the party is so split that a coronation will not be allowed. Braverman basically looks like she will run no matter what. I guess the grey suits might find a way around this and for time being I am keeping my bet in place as it is only beer money.
They need Rishi in order to calm the markets. The young cardinals, old popes dictum suggests MPs might settle for Theresa May in a Michael Howard-like damage limitation role. Things might be clearer once Boris encounters the Privileges Committee.
Wallace PM, Sunak back as Chancellor is the only possible replacement for Truss and Kwarteng that might produce a poll bounce and also not split the party
You are probably right, Hyufd, and even that might not work.
Would either of them take the jobs though?
PB's fondness for Ben Wallace is not persuasive. Look at his videos on Youtube: will he really excite the voter on the Clapham omnibus?
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
So you still weren't in the category after 40 then even if you were before and your wife still was
Yep I was (not that it matters) because I set up a business that meets your criteria completely. But I don't get this boasting stuff. What does it matter what I or my wife did? She certainly doesn't think of herself as being upper middle class not I. Why does it matter to you?
As you were not both in the category able to help your children with deposits for expensive London or Home counties properties at the time they needed it
If house prices down South were sane, parents wouldn't need to destroy their own finances to allow their children to buy a home and have a family..
London is now the biggest and richest global city in Europe.
I am afraid the only way to collapse London and SE house prices again is for London to go back to a 1970s relative shithole with a few historic buildings. Even building all over the greenbelt wouldn't do it
“This afternoon we should see the first post-speech polling and I would be very surprised if perceptions have moved.”
Personally I wouldn’t like to call wether it’s temporary polling change or largely permanent - John Curtice said the same yesterday.
It could prove like how a currency drops dramatically in hours, doesn’t jump back in hours but regains ground over days and weeks.
In Truss first week there was not dramatic movement on her coronation, she was largely seen as doing okay at PMQs, indeed the polls were showing uptick in her favour. Yes, they were. The more dramatic nature of the collapse seems to linked to one budget, in fact one budget measure which is now gone, so gradual recovery could happen.
Osborne had a “uber bad pasty budget” where Tory position was eroded to give Labour big leads, partly because the UKIP position was improved by the budget, but ultimately that bad budget drop unwound too.
If you are going to bet on poll movement, a gradual unwinding of the collapse (though not completely!) is the smart bet I think.
The problem that Truss and Kwarteng face is that they will have to announce swingeing public service cuts in November.
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
As Jacob Rees Mogg said: Brexit makes sense if you take a 50 year viewpoint (he was unwise to do so, albeit correct)
That’s how long it might take to a show a real net benefit. But it will show that benefit. Let’s reconvene in 2066
Yes let's have my kids living under this shit for most of their working lives and then we can decide. No.
Well, you’re stuck with it. Sorry
So we will have plenty of time to see if I’m right
No about 80% of it will be unwound in the next ten years. Singapore on Thames will never gain majority support and every other version of Brexit is nonsensical. Whether we fully rejoin I don't know but I'm not sure it matters.
The worst case of Inherited Boasting I have ever seen, on this forum, is @JackW
I don’t like to be mean to a venerable PB-er who is not here to defend himself but, fuck it. He used to boast about foreign honours - the “ancient order of the Maltese sporran-makers” - given to him solely because he’s an aristo with inherited money. Like someone proudly displaying a medal, awarded to them them for having won a nice refrigerator in a lottery
Grotesque, juvenile and existentially embarrassing
Old money always seeks ways to distinguish itself from the nouveau riche new money
By the way, for traditional old money Tories Truss is definitely nouveau riche as are most of her supporters.
Nicholas Soames for example, the patron of Tory old money, was a big Rishi supporter
“This afternoon we should see the first post-speech polling and I would be very surprised if perceptions have moved.”
Personally I wouldn’t like to call wether it’s temporary polling change or largely permanent - John Curtice said the same yesterday.
It could prove like how a currency drops dramatically in hours, doesn’t jump back in hours but regains ground over days and weeks.
In Truss first week there was not dramatic movement on her coronation, she was largely seen as doing okay at PMQs, indeed the polls were showing uptick in her favour. Yes, they were. The more dramatic nature of the collapse seems to linked to one budget, in fact one budget measure which is now gone, so gradual recovery could happen.
Osborne had a “uber bad pasty budget” where Tory position was eroded to give Labour big leads, partly because the UKIP position was improved by the budget, but ultimately that bad budget drop unwound too.
If you are going to bet on poll movement, a gradual unwinding of the collapse (though not completely!) is the smart bet I think.
The problem that Truss and Kwarteng face is that they will have to announce swingeing public service cuts in November.
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
As Jacob Rees Mogg said: Brexit makes sense if you take a 50 year viewpoint (he was unwise to do so, albeit correct)
That’s how long it might take to a show a real net benefit. But it will show that benefit. Let’s reconvene in 2066
Yes let's have my kids living under this shit for most of their working lives and then we can decide. No.
Well, you’re stuck with it. Sorry
So we will have plenty of time to see if I’m right
No about 80% of it will be unwound in the next ten years. Singapore on Thames will never gain majority support and every other version of Brexit is nonsensical. Whether we fully rejoin I don't know but I'm not sure it matters.
Truss is of course in Europe today meeting European leaders about closer cooperation with Europe...
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
So you still weren't in the category after 40 then even if you were before and your wife still was
Yep I was (not that it matters) because I set up a business that meets your criteria completely. But I don't get this boasting stuff. What does it matter what I or my wife did? She certainly doesn't think of herself as being upper middle class not I. Why does it matter to you?
As you were not both in the category able to help your children with deposits for expensive London or Home counties properties at the time they needed it
If house prices down South were sane, parents wouldn't need to destroy their own finances to allow their children to buy a home and have a family..
London is now the biggest and richest global city in Europe.
I am afraid the only way to collapse London and SE house prices again is for London to go back to a 1970s relative shithole with a few historic buildings. Even building all over the greenbelt wouldn't do it
Um I think you will find @MaxPB has a decent plan which Labour could easily implemented.
And yes, it still wouldn't make London cheap but it would remove 1 reason why it's so insanely expensive...
Could be. I have bet she will be out by end of year, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the party is so split that a coronation will not be allowed. Braverman basically looks like she will run no matter what. I guess the grey suits might find a way around this and for time being I am keeping my bet in place as it is only beer money.
They need Rishi in order to calm the markets. The young cardinals, old popes dictum suggests MPs might settle for Theresa May in a Michael Howard-like damage limitation role. Things might be clearer once Boris encounters the Privileges Committee.
Wallace PM, Sunak back as Chancellor is the only possible replacement for Truss and Kwarteng that might produce a poll bounce and also not split the party
You are probably right, Hyufd, and even that might not work.
Would either of them take the jobs though?
PB's fondness for Ben Wallace is not persuasive. Look at his videos on Youtube: will he really excite the voter on the Clapham omnibus?
The worst case of Inherited Boasting I have ever seen, on this forum, is @JackW
I don’t like to be mean to a venerable PB-er who is not here to defend himself but, fuck it. He used to boast about foreign honours - the “ancient order of the Maltese sporran-makers” - given to him solely because he’s an aristo with inherited money. Like someone proudly displaying a medal, awarded to them them for having won a nice refrigerator in a lottery
Grotesque, juvenile and existentially embarrassing
Old money always seeks ways to distinguish itself from the nouveau riche new money
I don’t mind old money being quirky, eccentric and given to showing off their inherited aesthetic, rituals, dress sense, whatever. That kind of thing can actually benefit society
It’s when they boast of being honoured for merely being old and rich, or somehow being morally or politically more entitled. Puke
I see 2-year mortgages are now above 6%. I got mine Nov last year with Santander at 0.89%.
Just think of what a sledgehammer that is when it comes up to remortgaging. You can do the maths for yourself on a £200k debt. Add energy bills and inflation on top and ask how families are going to afford it. It's over an extra £1,000 a month every month.
Tories used to have a lead amongst homeowners. They won't now.
They will because the Tories will lead heavily among outright owners with no mortgage. They want higher interest rates, they care little for the impoverishment of generations below if it gets them an extra cruise per year.
They also help with deposits for their grandchildren and children to get a house.
Typical libertarian attitude ignoring the family
Not this one again. Most people don't inherit until their mid sixties and parents also can't afford to pay a deposit for typically 2 children out of their savings while they are still alive. Listening to More or Less yesterday, the typical first time deposit is £100,000. I have 2 children and I am by most people's standards very well off, but I can't just find £200,000 at the drop of a hat and it would be a risk to my retirement if I did. These days many/most people don't have DB pensions to live off so I need the buffer of cash, potential to pay for a care in old age.
Simply not true. Most upper middle class parents in the home counties and London I know help their children in their 20s or 30s with a deposit for a property and that is where property prices are highest and it is most needed. North of Watford property is much more affordable to buy for those on average incomes (even if TSE for instance also got help from his dad to buy in Hallam, a relatively more expensive part of the North)
Which part of kjh can't work out how he can afford to sub his children £100,000 has post got to do with.
Some people can afford to gift their children a substantial profit - many can't....
I am not referring to KJH. I am referring to upper middle class parents I know, who have worked in the City, been doctors, corporate lawyers, directors of companies etc almost all of who live in London or the Home Counties and almost all of whom have given their children a deposit to buy a property.
KJH by his own admission gave up full time work in his 40s
Yep I did (6 months after my 40th birthday), although I did set up a business which I worked at part time and then worked for the LDs and charitable causes foc and fortunately my business was successful. I am also married to a Doctor. So I actually do fall into the category you define (it is odd you think I don't as I meet every part of your definition!). But I fail to see what that has to do with anything. If anything it proves the point. I am rich by most people's standards and although I could do it, it would empty us of all our available cash (and easy to convert to cash assets) that I live on. I don't have a DB pension or annuity bringing in a regular income big enough to live on as will be the case going forward for many. Eventually I will downsize and live off that realised capital.
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
So you married into the category then, even if after 40 you weren't in it yourself.
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
I have just seen you edited your post with the new first line. You do jump to conclusions don't you.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
So you still weren't in the category after 40 then even if you were before and your wife still was
Yep I was (not that it matters) because I set up a business that meets your criteria completely. But I don't get this boasting stuff. What does it matter what I or my wife did? She certainly doesn't think of herself as being upper middle class not I. Why does it matter to you?
As you were not both in the category able to help your children with deposits for expensive London or Home counties properties at the time they needed it
If house prices down South were sane, parents wouldn't need to destroy their own finances to allow their children to buy a home and have a family..
London is now the biggest and richest global city in Europe.
I am afraid the only way to collapse London and SE house prices again is for London to go back to a 1970s relative shithole with a few historic buildings. Even building all over the greenbelt wouldn't do it
What's the point of having the "biggest and richest" city if no one can afford to live in it?
Could be. I have bet she will be out by end of year, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the party is so split that a coronation will not be allowed. Braverman basically looks like she will run no matter what. I guess the grey suits might find a way around this and for time being I am keeping my bet in place as it is only beer money.
They need Rishi in order to calm the markets. The young cardinals, old popes dictum suggests MPs might settle for Theresa May in a Michael Howard-like damage limitation role. Things might be clearer once Boris encounters the Privileges Committee.
Wallace PM, Sunak back as Chancellor is the only possible replacement for Truss and Kwarteng that might produce a poll bounce and also not split the party
You are probably right, Hyufd, and even that might not work.
Would either of them take the jobs though?
PB's fondness for Ben Wallace is not persuasive. Look at his videos on Youtube: will he really excite the voter on the Clapham omnibus?
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1577966030890143745 Andrea Leadsom MP @andrealeadsom I share my constituents' concerns about the proposed change to the DCO for Northampton Gateway. If the change is granted, a devastating precedent will be set, alongside a negative effect on noise/air pollution, traffic, and a cumulative impact on other development projects.
Liz's speech yesterday is just going to keep on giving as anything that stops any building project can be included in it...
It does show that Truss is broadly correct. Even her own pro-growth party is anti-growth in practice. I don't think any mainstream UK political party is really pro-growth, they can all find a reason for doing nothing and kicking problems into the long grass.
It reads as an attempt to kill the project dead by removing a minor change that allows it to be implemented under a known timescale given the difficulties Network rail are currently experiencing (hint East / West Rail is still up in the air)
No-one will want to replace the chairperson and legal counsels who quit Scotland's Covid inquiry, a lawyer has warned.
Prof Peter Watson, who represents some affected families, has said the review will be delayed and is "going nowhere".
The chairperson, Lady Poole, quit last week following the resignation of the lead counsel and three junior counsels.
An inquiry spokesman said it was "continuing its important work" despite the staffing problems.
Lady Poole was said to be leaving for personal reasons. She will continue in the post during a notice period of up to three months.
No explanation has been given for the departure of lead counsel Douglas Ross KC and three of his staff.
Asked about the progress of the inquiry, Prof Watson told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme: "It's going nowhere."
He added: "It is extraordinary, to say the least, for people such as counsel to the inquiry and others to resign their post and leave.
"Most lawyers would find ways to work round any perceived difficulties but for lawyers to say they will no longer accept instructions – quite extraordinary."
Could be. I have bet she will be out by end of year, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the party is so split that a coronation will not be allowed. Braverman basically looks like she will run no matter what. I guess the grey suits might find a way around this and for time being I am keeping my bet in place as it is only beer money.
They need Rishi in order to calm the markets. The young cardinals, old popes dictum suggests MPs might settle for Theresa May in a Michael Howard-like damage limitation role. Things might be clearer once Boris encounters the Privileges Committee.
Wallace PM, Sunak back as Chancellor is the only possible replacement for Truss and Kwarteng that might produce a poll bounce and also not split the party
You are probably right, Hyufd, and even that might not work.
Would either of them take the jobs though?
PB's fondness for Ben Wallace is not persuasive. Look at his videos on Youtube: will he really excite the voter on the Clapham omnibus?
Did John Major excite? Still did the job well.
The other thing Wallace can do differently is have a cabinet based on who is capable of being in such roles, rather than who is ideologically closest to him. If he is being represented by Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Mordaunt, May, Tugenhat, Javid rather than Kwarteng, JRM, Braverman and Coffey then his individual media performance becomes a lot less important than it is to Truss, or was to Johnson.
Dreadful news here as Edinburgh's Filmhouse and the Edinburgh International Film Festival, as well as the Belmont in Aberdeen, cease trading immediately. Yes, rising energy bills is a named factor https://twitter.com/kapaterson/status/1577965452822810630/photo/1
No-one will want to replace the chairperson and legal counsels who quit Scotland's Covid inquiry, a lawyer has warned.
Prof Peter Watson, who represents some affected families, has said the review will be delayed and is "going nowhere".
The chairperson, Lady Poole, quit last week following the resignation of the lead counsel and three junior counsels.
An inquiry spokesman said it was "continuing its important work" despite the staffing problems.
Lady Poole was said to be leaving for personal reasons. She will continue in the post during a notice period of up to three months.
No explanation has been given for the departure of lead counsel Douglas Ross KC and three of his staff.
Asked about the progress of the inquiry, Prof Watson told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme: "It's going nowhere."
He added: "It is extraordinary, to say the least, for people such as counsel to the inquiry and others to resign their post and leave.
"Most lawyers would find ways to work round any perceived difficulties but for lawyers to say they will no longer accept instructions – quite extraordinary."
Watson should work on his vocabulary and stop saying "extraordinary" - the middle class equivalent of sniffing in a load of snot and then saying "wow", and equally intellectually impressive.
Comments
Bank of England Deputy Governor Cunliffe writes to Treasury Committee..
Includes diagram showing centrality of the “fiscal event” ie mini budget to acceleration of bond yields, and “liquidity conditions were v poor”compares to US & euro, and shows impact of BoE intervention https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1577952520865021952/photo/1
The period between the mini budget and the following Wednesday saw “two daily increases in 30 year gilt yields of more than 35 basis points. The biggest daily increase before last week in the data that goes back to 2000 was 29 basis points.” BoE’s Cunliffe
“Measured over a 4 day period, the increase in 30Y gilt yields was more than twice as large as largest move since 2000, which occurred during ‘dash for cash’ in 2020. It was more than 3 times larger than any other historical move. Gilt market functioning was severely stretched”
But I am fortunate. I note again you are referring to Upper Middle Class parents who work in the City, Doctors, Corporate Lawyers, etc
What about the dustman, nurse, social worker, call centre worker, etc who make up the vast majority of the population (like my parents (junior civil servant and payroll clerk) who live in the south. I guess they can go hang then?
Imagine the insane effect if Ukraine is capable of launching the third and the most powerful attack in Zaporizhia to retake Melitopol
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1577956643626688513
Russophobia is far more of a danger in Britain than Russophilia - although, having said that, for many rightwing patriotic "sash windows and cricket are best" droolers the fact that the foreign country in this instance is Russia doesn't matter much. They'd have the same attitude if it was France or Spain or Ireland.
The election will be held on 20th October with the electorate being the existing 43 herediary conservative peers. Voting is by STV. We currently have 22 candidates.
The only candidate standing in this election who is not standing in the earlier whole house election is Lord Biddulph. The two candidates elected in the earlier byelection will not be on the ballot paper for this by-election.
Biddulph, L.
A new King, a new area, the work of the House of Lords continues. I am particularly interested in the economy and human rights.
Further details of all the by-elections can be found on https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/offices/lords/house-of-lords-external-communications/by-elections/
Yes, we're already pretty aligned but it would still require coming to an agreement which would take at minimum a couple of years by which time this crisis will have played out.
I'm not even going to go onto the unpopularity of the idea that the world's sixth largest economy would have no say in much of the goods and services rules that it has to implement and follow.
It's not going to happen, so the pro-SM diehards like Sadiq should engage with whatever SKS is planning as a relationship with the EU rather than head in the clouds/sand because I want a better relationship with the EU too, but I'm realistic as to how far we can politically go.
On the new boundaries, the same polls give:
SNP 52 seats (+4)
SLab 3 seats (+2)
SLD 2 seats (nc)
SCon 0 seats (-6)
(YouGov/The Times; SNP45, Lab31, Con12, LD7; and Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman; SNP46, Lab30, Con15, LD8)
The new boundaries are incredibly cruel to the Unionist parties.
Where you are correct is that SCon to SLD tactical unwind is going to be humongous. It is profoundly unlikely to gain them any seats, but may well give them some stunning second places in eg the North East and the Borders.
To be very honest, the trajectory already seemed determinedly Moving On Up for a very long time, you have to concede that?
Firstly they were unable to find local warehouse staff now they can't find local middle management because although the pay isn't great everyone locally is working and no-one with suitable expertise / qualifications is able to move into the area for the £60,000 that is being offered...
And that isn't 1 role it's about 4 at the moment with another 6-8 approaching retirement in the next few years. High house prices are going to destroy many companies because it's impossible to find qualified local staff...
Ie gilts (UK 30Y Govt borrowing) moved more in a day than they have in 23 of the past 27 YEARS…
If they want to rejoin Russia, fine. Let them have a lawful vote on the subject. Monitored by the UN. When it has been handed back to Ukraine. And if they vote to join Russia, let that vote be respected.
I should perhaps point out that in 1954 Khrushchev was putting right an historical issue whereby Crimea had been transferred to the Russian SSR from the Ukrainian SSR in 1921 to cut it off from the Black Sea. This had been highly damaging to Crimea and not great for Ukraine. Coupled with massive ethnic cleansing on Stalin's orders in the 1940s, Crimea was in a really sorry state in 1954 and urgently needed to be transferred back to Ukraine for administrative and economic reasons. It has, therefore, been part of Ukraine for far longer than it was ever part of Russia.
You should also not confuse 'Russophobia' with 'hatred of the current fascist regime of third rate kleptocrats currently in power in Moscow.'
Incidentally of your 37 posts 36 have been about Russia, and you do seem to get very worked up about it when anyone questions the integrity of its government. May I ask why?
Some people do run homes at absurd temperatures. Even on the BBC yesterday they were at a typical house and the thermostat was sat at 23 deg C.
They had a golden opportunity laid out before them after 2019 - they had just brought into the fold a huge raft of seats that had never had a Tory MP before. That was the time to solidify those gains and refine Conservatism for the 21st century. If they had gotten it right, they could have fundamentally solidified an electoral coalition to see them, if not in government, retaining a firm bedrock of support for the next 2 to 3 decades.
But the party proved itself fundamentally incapable of understanding that change (ironic given the name) and doubled down on the old fashioned Tory bingo sheet. The election of Truss and her tick box conference speech (low tax, bigger slice of the cake for all, less government - check check check), just demonstrates this.
This is why they deserve to lose the red wall. I do rather fear by missing this opportunity they have doomed themselves to a long time in the wilderness. People will not make the same mistake twice.
@spectator column on the four scenarios being war-gamed by MPs 👇
1. Truss fights on
2. Caretaker PM
3. The Boris restoration
4. Ready for Rishi
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/could-it-be-rishi-by-christmas
By Nathaniel Rakich"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fetterman-oz-polls/
Mind you, that came after 2 decades of me spunking (sometimes literally) my Dad’s money on hookers and blow, so I can empathise with both sides
Nonetheless my most serious contempt is reserved for those who inherit and contrive to boast about it. Twats
If you are on an average income in London or the Home Counties and don't have wealthy parents, then outside of a few areas like Harlow, Margate or Dagenham and Clacton where property prices are cheap I would suggest moving north if you want to buy a property before 40. As property prices as I said are far cheaper north of Watford and that is unlikely to change much however much you concrete over the greenbelt or tighten immigration rules
The English boundary commission will be consulting on 8 November, the Welsh on 19 October and the Northern Irish during the week commencing 14 November.
Unless it doesn’t happen then he changes his mind, see his party the Cons and which ever stinking bin fire they appoint as leader/pm.leader/pm.
But just because the market was moving up doesn't irradicate the argument that the Mini budget increased the risk premium of the UK economy by 60-120 base points compared to the situation before the speech,,,
-Horror at going through another members' election and lack of obvious mechanism to prevent it
-Total inability to agree on a single candidate for a coronation without a vote
May be enough to save her https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1577954215791583233
All the lines have been 'moving on up' for a longer period, but I think it's hard to argue that the UK alone doesn't have a step change in pace of rise.
Besides, good supply teachers are absolute stars, Truss really isn't.
John Bull
@garius
Central government keeps banging on about local authorities needing to find 'cost savings' yet the biggest cost inefficiency local authorities have right now is energy bills going from, say, £6m to £20m.
The UK being legit good at energy would have HUGE knock-ons down the chain
The increase in energy prices has removed any flexibility councils have to make savings - because they are already doing everything they can to find enough savings to pay the heating bills.
Not that it is any of your business but I worked in the City. I left Uni to join one of the big Consultancies. I then went to work for one of the big US computer companies. I made substantially more money than my wife. I semi retired before I got married. Marrying my wife was the cherry on the cake.
The worst case of Inherited Boasting I have ever seen, on this forum, is @JackW
I don’t like to be mean to a venerable PB-er who is not here to defend himself but, fuck it. He used to boast about foreign honours - the “ancient order of the Maltese sporran-makers” - given to him solely because he’s an aristo with inherited money. Like someone proudly displaying a medal, awarded to them them for having won a nice refrigerator in a lottery
Grotesque, juvenile and existentially embarrassing
Nevada looks as if it will be a Republican gain.
So, it comes down to Arizona and Georgia. The Democratic candidates for the Senate lead in both States, but so do the Republican candidates for Governor. Will many voters split their tickets?
I can see a situation where the party is so horrendously divided they just can’t ditch Truss. Though I suspect if the dire poll ratings continue into the new year that will start to concentrate minds.
As I said even if you concrete all over the greenbelt or stop all immigration tomorrow property prices in London and the Home counties would still be more expensive for average earners than those north of Watford
That, surely, is why they wanted to pass the tax cuts and the abolition of the 45% tax band first - because cutting taxes for the richest 1% while cutting benefits for the majority would have been completely untenable.
Hence the OBR omission. And the core vote strategy of tax cuts for the middle classes.
If Labour is 25% ahead now, how far will it be ahead in November when public sector pay freezes and service cuts are announced?
It is a shame as Truss's approach is really the only way that Brexit makes sense.
Problem solved, I say!
That’s how long it might take to a show a real net benefit. But it will show that benefit. Let’s reconvene in 2066
But the news isn't going to get better and frankly I just don't see a way out of this for the Conservatives - no 'off-ramp' in the fashionable parlance.
Anything better than evens must be value for a Labour Overall Majority.
The Brexit omerta - which obvs doesn't apply to this august, refined forum - needs to go. We - the country as a whole - need to talk about Brexit. I know it's delivered for the likes of Leon and Barty, but many people out there aren't happy with where we are. At all.
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1577966030890143745
Andrea Leadsom MP
@andrealeadsom
I share my constituents' concerns about the proposed change to the DCO for Northampton Gateway. If the change is granted, a devastating precedent will be set, alongside a negative effect on noise/air pollution, traffic, and a cumulative impact on other development projects.
Liz's speech yesterday is just going to keep on giving as anything that stops any building project can be included in it...
Would either of them take the jobs though?
lol
So we will have plenty of time to see if I’m right
I am afraid the only way to collapse London and SE house prices again is for London to go back to a 1970s relative shithole with a few historic buildings. Even building all over the greenbelt wouldn't do it
Nicholas Soames for example, the patron of Tory old money, was a big Rishi supporter
Hail Brexit !
And yes, it still wouldn't make London cheap but it would remove 1 reason why it's so insanely expensive...
It's bears and running shoes.
It’s when they boast of being honoured for merely being old and rich, or somehow being morally or politically more entitled. Puke
https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/30136/documents/174584/default/
It is clear and well written.
It reads as an attempt to kill the project dead by removing a minor change that allows it to be implemented under a known timescale given the difficulties Network rail are currently experiencing (hint East / West Rail is still up in the air)
---
No-one will want to replace the chairperson and legal counsels who quit Scotland's Covid inquiry, a lawyer has warned.
Prof Peter Watson, who represents some affected families, has said the review will be delayed and is "going nowhere".
The chairperson, Lady Poole, quit last week following the resignation of the lead counsel and three junior counsels.
An inquiry spokesman said it was "continuing its important work" despite the staffing problems.
Lady Poole was said to be leaving for personal reasons. She will continue in the post during a notice period of up to three months.
No explanation has been given for the departure of lead counsel Douglas Ross KC and three of his staff.
Asked about the progress of the inquiry, Prof Watson told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme: "It's going nowhere."
He added: "It is extraordinary, to say the least, for people such as counsel to the inquiry and others to resign their post and leave.
"Most lawyers would find ways to work round any perceived difficulties but for lawyers to say they will no longer accept instructions – quite extraordinary."
https://twitter.com/anassarwar/status/1577729135551680524?s=46&t=QH-z0GXA4uR9A9zAR_jO1Q