There seems to have been little mention of the Kantar poll putting the Tories within 4 points of Labour. Did I miss the discussion, or are we just ignoring it?
First day of field work was before the Not-A-Budget.
Thanks, Al, but it is still a strikingly low number.
I think Kantar have a reputaution for being a bit maverick, which is not to say they are necessarily wrong, just different.
It is. Fieldwork was entirely before Monday though. Which is when the market turmoil hit. Still an outlier on what preceded that.
Just a movement of 3 from Kantor, not wildly different from their previous poll.
What I'm really interested in is whether, as I suspect it might have, that Yougov poll had later fieldwork than the others. More after yesterday afternoon / lunchtime.
Yougov methodology produces too much fluctuations. Things may have been working for them once, but not at the moment - it needs to go into the garage and poked around under the hood.
28th July they had a Labour lead of 1. 22nd July 7. It’s like a broken cursor leaping inaccurately across a screen.
The fact that @TheScreamingEagles is polled almost every week should show that something isn't entirely random about the polls.
Polls tend to be dominated by people who are interested in politics and are happy to sit down and share their views, a bit like this site really. They tend to jump around more based on the news as a result.
Possibly more of a challenge to get representative samples for Yougov - under some news narratives some persuasions of passionate political people may go to ground their heart not in replying?
you always know someone is losing when they start arguing that polling companies don't know how to get random sample of people
I am very thankful we lost that particular sack of vituperative puss from PB.
Pus, and he is a great and good man. Just a bit touchy.
He may have been a delight elsewhere, but he chose this place as a free venue to give vent to his most negative emotions and generally pour bitter scorn on anyone not blessed with enough intelligence to agree with him.
I'm not going to quote the whole article but I'll quote 2 paragraphs
More than four million people receive Universal Credit. The Resolution Foundation think tank said some working families could be £1,000 a year worse off if benefits do not rise with average prices.
However, ministers did move to reassure pensioners that the “triple lock” remains, meaning state pensions will rise in line with inflation despite the wider spending squeeze.
So they will protect pensioners in the hope that they continue to vote Tory.
I notice those shrugging their shoulders - Sean F, William G and Barth - are not mentioning the intervention by the Bank of England to stop pension funds collapsing. As for interest rates, we now have inflation. Of course interest are going to go up. It has already started. But the essential argument was whether the Bank should have gone 0.25% higher on Thursday, which now feels rather academic.
My sense is that certain people cannot accept that whilst Sunak's tax rises were in place the markets had confidence in UK borrowing. Once they were reversed and then some, the markets took fright. It goes against everything believed by people of a certain obsessive ideology. That tax cuts equal economic nirvana and tax rises equals economic doom. Reality is a bit more complicated.
I did mention the Bank's action actually. The Bank chose to engage in QT and that is when the markets took fright, but the mini budget got the blame.
The tax cuts are an irrelevant side show to be honest, though they get the political headlines and will carry the news. The Bank selling rather than buying £80bn of gilts while the State had to borrow to pay for energy support etc would have tipped over the market either way, with or without the taxes.
The Bank reversed their decision to engage in QT and the markets stabilised.
No, the market didn't take fright from quantitative tightening. You're rewriting history. The market took fright from the UK government announcing £45bn in unfunded tax cuts and then suggesting additional economic growth from tax cuts on the rich would make them self funding. We're still there a week later which is where bond yields are still up despite the BoE using its big bazooka.
Like many conservatives I'm all in favour of properly targeted tax cuts to grow the economy, but I'm also a proper conservative and want them to be properly funded. Either with credible forecasts that show higher trend growth resulting from said tax cuts, spending cuts or a mixture of both. The government presented £45bn worth of additional borrowing per year heading into a recession and produced no spending cuts and no credible forecast that their plan would result in higher economic growth over the medium term to generate revenue over and above the additional borrowing.
This is an existential crisis for the Tory party and for the UK government's reputation of being a nation of sound finances that pays it's way.
On the other subject of interest rates, due to these tax cuts peak rates are now heading for 6% next year compared to expectations of 4% before the statement. That is going to hurt a lot of people, it's thousands extra per year on mortgages and because of higher inflation real negative interest rates will be largely similar. We've ended up with higher interest rates for absolutely no gain and all pain. It's a disaster.
And yet the Bank reversing tack and reversing its QT decision of a few days earlier stabilised the markets again. The Bank's proposed QT was £80bn, double the proposed tax cut.
They didn't though, did they. Bond yields are still 4.2%, heading into Friday they were 3.6%, the Bank has just shored up the market and stopped the bottom falling out. Gilts now carry a risk premium that they didn't before this disaster. That's a price we're all going to pay along with our children.
You also can't compare quantitative tightening with tax cuts. The former is a one off reduction in money supply, the latter is a yearly decrease in government income that requires at least £45bn in additional bonds needing to be sold.
Don't get me wrong, I think that there's no real need for the tightening, especially when the other option was to raise rates a bit faster, yet that's not what caused all of the ructions in the market this week. That is purely down to the government presenting us with a bunch of unfunded tax cuts and fantasy economics alongside them.
That's surely because the Bank has only temporarily stopped trying to sell British Government bonds. They have temporarily paused their policy, causing a temporary respite.
The QT programme hadn't even started properly. It was merely announced on Thursday with a limit of £80bn and setting out market liquidity and cover that they would sell into.
All of you lot attempting to blame shift Friday's market movements to Thursday are attempting to rewrite history but it's all there in the charts on my terminal. Gilts and sterling held fairly steady on Thursday. On Friday gilt prices and sterling both tanked and then again on Monday because of the idiotic media rounds by the chancellor suggesting that tax cuts on the rich would generate enough additional growth to make these self funding.
And the pound has recovered. If however, you are insisting that the low current value of British bonds has nothing to do with the fact that the BOE has recently switched from years of buying them up, to now trying to sell a load of them just when global markets are reeling from US interest rate rises, then I really don't know what to say to you.
The bank are buying a bunch of long dated bonds and they are now pushing up bond prices, yet yields remain elevated compared to Thursday on the announcement of quantitative tightening.
The pound is recovering because markets are now pricing in big interest rate rises from the BoE after multiple MPC members are going on record to say there will need to be record rate rises to contain this. Some are also pricing in an October statement that outlines £25-30bn in spending cuts and the reversal of some of these measures. If these don't arrive expect sterling to start falling again.
Once again, the cause of this is the government announcing £45bn in unfunded tax cuts and then suggesting that cutting the 45% rate would raise trend growth enough to make it all self funding. It's complete fantasy economics and financial markets are very, very good at calling bullshit. This is the result.
I am very thankful we lost that particular sack of vituperative puss from PB.
Isn't vapid bilge the apposite term?
As the owner of a narrowboat, I can’t see where the adjective “vapid” comes from in this context. “Noxious” would be closer to the truth, especially the other weekend when I spent an hour or so with my hands in it trying to sort out the prop shaft.
It was a meme of significance in ye olden days here. Created by a certain sage who posted as Antifrank aka Alastair Meeks. But I think your difficulty is with bilge - it does not necessarily have a nautical connotation.
I have my card records of my 3 Covid vaccination records in my married name but my passport is in my maiden name as I use this for pretty much all purposes.
I'm travelling to the US next month and the US requires proof of vaccination but in the name used in my travel documents. I assume a marriage certificate won't help.
Do I just ask my GP to change the name and, if so, how then do I get a vaccination record in that name in time for my travel. I have only just realised the issue and am leaving on 25th October.
Thanks in advance.
You will need paper certificates ordered from the website or the phone app certificates - the vaccine cards won't do. Can you change your name in the NHS app or online?
You can get an AKA in your passport by renewing it, but I don't think they hand them out like candy, so it might be involved.
Another thought: in the ESTA application, I think you can give AKA names, from memory. Maybe do a new ESTA with both names in, and also take your marriage certificate.
Edit: worth pointing out that your vaccine certificates are much more likely to be checked by your airline than anyone at immigration these days, which both simplifies and complicates the issue: a border agent probably knows the law, the lad on check in probably doesn't.
I entered the US last month; as you say the only check was by the carrier, and a fairly cursory one. Flashing the NHS App would have done it. US immigration weren't interested in vaccination status.
I've been to ten or twelve countries in the last two years: only one serious document check on arrival: Malta right after they opened up. One check at Gatwick on the way back. Other than that, it's been check-in agents only.
I have been mulling over what I would've done differently if I were in charge and also with no access to any financial modelling. What I would have done:
- Scrapped the rise in NI - Scrapped the rise in corporation tax - Kept the 45% rate - Considered changing the 40% entry rate to a higher threshold but make it something like 42 or 43% (aim being to reduce taxes on middle classes so they can spend more - modelled to find the best balance of threshold). In better times later on merge in the 45% rate to this. - Get rid of different salary bandings for free childcare. This is a disincentive to work at certain salary levels. Everyone gets the same. - Get rid of the pension triple lock (pensioners have done well for a long time) - Introduce benefits triple lock - Means-test free bus passes, winter fuel allowance and TV licences
Who knows how this would financially work out for the country but it is something that I think I could sell to the people effectively.
Apologies for picking on a minor point: TV licences are already means tested - only free to those on Pension Credit.
Much of the rest I agree with.
Personally, I'd have abolished employee NI and increased the Income tax rates by 13% to compensate, thus effectively rolling NI into Income Tax... And also increased the ICT personal allowance by inflation.
I'm not going to quote the whole article but I'll quote 2 paragraphs
More than four million people receive Universal Credit. The Resolution Foundation think tank said some working families could be £1,000 a year worse off if benefits do not rise with average prices.
However, ministers did move to reassure pensioners that the “triple lock” remains, meaning state pensions will rise in line with inflation despite the wider spending squeeze.
So they will protect pensioners in the hope that they continue to vote Tory.
There are a lot of working folk on UC. I know I bang on about TA's, but they are keeping my school afloat right now. Minimum wage 35 hours a week. Not paid in the holidays mostly. A 20% weekly pay cut just because the Queen died. Make more stacking shelves. They can bring it down. But they won't. Cos they are the backbone of the nation.
Truss has chosen to have an "emergency meeting with the OBR, tomorrow" according to the Heil.
I wonder if George Osborne has allowed himself a dark smile of satisfaction in recent days. He invented the OBR, and the moment a government tried to bypass it all hell broke loose.
The OBR was the one good thing to come out of the Osborne years. Most of what has followed - stripping the North of its dignity via slashing Council budgets, Brexit, the Boris years and now Trussism and the latest assault on poor and middle earners - stems from his years in office. Any satisfaction is unearned.
Evening all, just been at chess, some delightful politics chat over a few games. One with a mate who is a hardcore Tory, he said hes been ignoring the news since Tuesday as its 'too depressing'. He refused to believe the YouGov until i showed him, then he swore, loudly, lol. In general it was nice to just chew the fat but it did come with a general acceptance and realisation, they nearly sank the fucking ship, they almost ruined millions, they still might. Its unforgivable. Im playing catch up and getting angry. Arse.biscuits.
There seems to have been little mention of the Kantar poll putting the Tories within 4 points of Labour. Did I miss the discussion, or are we just ignoring it?
First day of field work was before the Not-A-Budget.
Thanks, Al, but it is still a strikingly low number.
I think Kantar have a reputaution for being a bit maverick, which is not to say they are necessarily wrong, just different.
It is. Fieldwork was entirely before Monday though. Which is when the market turmoil hit. Still an outlier on what preceded that.
Just a movement of 3 from Kantor, not wildly different from their previous poll.
What I'm really interested in is whether, as I suspect it might have, that Yougov poll had later fieldwork than the others. More after yesterday afternoon / lunchtime.
Yougov methodology produces too much fluctuations. Things may have been working for them once, but not at the moment - it needs to go into the garage and poked around under the hood.
28th July they had a Labour lead of 1. 22nd July 7. It’s like a broken cursor leaping inaccurately across a screen.
The fact that @TheScreamingEagles is polled almost every week should show that something isn't entirely random about the polls.
Polls tend to be dominated by people who are interested in politics and are happy to sit down and share their views, a bit like this site really. They tend to jump around more based on the news as a result.
Possibly more of a challenge to get representative samples for Yougov - under some news narratives some persuasions of passionate political people may go to ground their heart not in replying?
you always know someone is losing when they start arguing that polling companies don't know how to get random sample of people
It's not at all easy to get a random sample, so they talk in terms of "representative samples" even as they apply rules of thumb derived from random sample, like margin of error.
The government caved in on paying people's energy bills this winter. They haven't got much credit for doing so, have they?
That's the thing about politics, you can do a lot of good things and be remembered for one bad decision. Which is why it is probably a good idea to think very carefully before giving a half-a-budget and saying "trust me the numbers will add up."
I am very thankful we lost that particular sack of vituperative puss from PB.
Pus, and he is a great and good man. Just a bit touchy.
He may have been a delight elsewhere, but he chose this place as a free venue to give vent to his most negative emotions and generally pour bitter scorn on anyone not blessed with enough intelligence to agree with him.
I am very thankful we lost that particular sack of vituperative puss from PB.
Isn't vapid bilge the apposite term?
As the owner of a narrowboat, I can’t see where the adjective “vapid” comes from in this context. “Noxious” would be closer to the truth, especially the other weekend when I spent an hour or so with my hands in it trying to sort out the prop shaft.
It was a meme of significance in ye olden days here. Created by a certain sage who posted as Antifrank aka Alastair Meeks. But I think your difficulty is with bilge - it does not necessarily have a nautical connotation.
Indeed. I was here in the Antifrank days. Just a light-hearted aside because, believe me, no one with a narrowboat more than five years old likes their bilge… vapid or otherwise.
I'm not going to quote the whole article but I'll quote 2 paragraphs
More than four million people receive Universal Credit. The Resolution Foundation think tank said some working families could be £1,000 a year worse off if benefits do not rise with average prices.
However, ministers did move to reassure pensioners that the “triple lock” remains, meaning state pensions will rise in line with inflation despite the wider spending squeeze.
So they will protect pensioners in the hope that they continue to vote Tory.
There are a lot of working folk on UC. I know I bang on about TA's, but they are keeping my school afloat right now. Minimum wage 35 hours a week. Not paid in the holidays mostly. Make more stacking shelves. They can bring it down.
What has changed from 30 years ago when I was at school, and we didn't have teaching assistants routinely (except in Year 1)? Is it special needs students in mainstream schools? Changes in what is required of teachers? Are we just delivering a better education with teaching assistants and it would be foolish to go back?
The government caved in on paying people's energy bills this winter. They haven't got much credit for doing so, have they?
No because it was inevitable and they spent the previous two months saying it was a rubbish idea.
Just as a u-turn now is inevitable but they will spend the next two weeks pretending they won't so the ever diminishing fan club will lap up how tough they are.
If modern politicians could leave their egos and ideologies behind for a bit, plan ahead and think through consequences, then they will get some credit.
Ultimately, politics usually comes down to simple, straightforward points that almost anyone can understand, except for those politicians so close to the trees that they can no longer see the wood.
This was, once, Boris's strength, until his blind spot came along, with even a schoolchild being able to see and understand that he'd wilfully ignored the rules and then lied to everyone about it.
When people are really struggling to afford food and heating, a government that thinks it clever to give millionaires a tax break and allow bankers to return to grotesque bonuses really deserves all that it gets by way of voter response.
Keep a weather eye out for your namesake - if you're still in Carolinas it's heading your way . . .
Telegraph reporting tonight that working age benefits will rise by 5.4% (av earnings figure) and not inflation whilst - you guessed it - pensions triple lock remains.
There will be food riots this winter.
Don't say you haven't been warned.
Yes, I'm not in favour of civil disorder when democratic alternatives exist, but faced with hunger caused by a government doing things not remotely envisaged in their manifesto, a bit of rioting would be quite unsurprising. Protecting pensions rather than, say, disability benefits seems complete indefensible.
I gather that the Tory backbench revolt is going to focus on kicking the 45p abolition down the road, through an amendment to the Finance Bill. I wouldn't have thought that would be enough to appease popular anger at the moment. My impression is that it's not especially directed at Truss, for whom there remains some sympathy for her torrid start. Rather, people really feel the Conservatives as a whole have completely lost the plot.
The government caved in on paying people's energy bills this winter. They haven't got much credit for doing so, have they?
In part because they decided to lead on tax cuts for the top 1%.
The silly thing is that there was no need to do so, the tax cuts could have waited until a Spring Budget.
Most of the tax cuts were only from next April anyway. If they had announced them then government debt payments and individuals mortgage payments would have been many tens of billions of pounds less over the next seven months. Idiots.
I'm not going to quote the whole article but I'll quote 2 paragraphs
More than four million people receive Universal Credit. The Resolution Foundation think tank said some working families could be £1,000 a year worse off if benefits do not rise with average prices.
However, ministers did move to reassure pensioners that the “triple lock” remains, meaning state pensions will rise in line with inflation despite the wider spending squeeze.
So they will protect pensioners in the hope that they continue to vote Tory.
There are a lot of working folk on UC. I know I bang on about TA's, but they are keeping my school afloat right now. Minimum wage 35 hours a week. Not paid in the holidays mostly. Make more stacking shelves. They can bring it down.
What has changed from 30 years ago when I was at school, and we didn't have teaching assistants routinely (except in Year 1)? Is it special needs students in mainstream schools? Changes in what is required of teachers? Are we just delivering a better education with teaching assistants and it would be foolish to go back?
SEN in mainstream mostly. Increasingly teachers don't have "free periods", or PPE time. TA's pick up the slack. Lack of any other support staff. Technicians, admin., nurses, lunch supervisors have all been rebranded as TA.
Excl - Third of Tory voters prepare to abandon party over housing - Rent Wall could be the new Red Wall in dozens of swing seats according to new polling, from me and @hoffman_noa
"Lord" Frost really is a pathetic waste of space. Stand for election or fuck off. You're just a shit trade negotiator, hack lobbyist and piss-poor diplomat. Oh, and now purveyor of conspiracy theories because your intellectually inadequate A level economic theories have been found out and people twice your intellectual level are pointing it out. What an arse.
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Telegraph reporting tonight that working age benefits will rise by 5.4% (av earnings figure) and not inflation whilst - you guessed it - pensions triple lock remains.
There will be food riots this winter.
Don't say you haven't been warned.
Yes, I'm not in favour of civil disorder when democratic alternatives exist, but faced with hunger caused by a government doing things not remotely envisaged in their manifesto, a bit of rioting would be quite unsurprising. Protecting pensions rather than, say, disability benefits seems complete indefensible.
I gather that the Tory backbench revolt is going to focus on kicking the 45p abolition down the road, through an amendment to the Finance Bill. I wouldn't have thought that would be enough to appease popular anger at the moment. My impression is that it's not especially directed at Truss, for whom there remains some sympathy for her torrid start. Rather, people really feel the Conservatives as a whole have completely lost the plot.
The anger is so hot now that even if the backbench manage to ditch the 45 into the long grass through some amendment or other, no one will care. The horse has bolted and is half way up the lane and in the tory party's case it is running towards the knackers yard.
"Lord" Frost really is a pathetic waste of space. Stand for election or fuck off. You're just a shit trade negotiator, hack lobbyist and piss-poor diplomat. Oh, and now purveyor of conspiracy theories because your intellectually inadequate A level economic theories have been found out and people twice your intellectual level are pointing it out. What an arse.
Lord Frost is a bit of an arse, but I think it's overreach bordering on the specious to say that anyone's 'economic theories' have been 'found out'. We don't know whether Truss and Kwarteng's tax cuts will stimulate the growth that they say they will. Market reaction to the mini budget didn't test that notion - only time will.
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Spending watchdog to explain the concept of closing barn doors after the horses have bolted.
I notice those shrugging their shoulders - Sean F, William G and Barth - are not mentioning the intervention by the Bank of England to stop pension funds collapsing. As for interest rates, we now have inflation. Of course interest are going to go up. It has already started. But the essential argument was whether the Bank should have gone 0.25% higher on Thursday, which now feels rather academic.
My sense is that certain people cannot accept that whilst Sunak's tax rises were in place the markets had confidence in UK borrowing. Once they were reversed and then some, the markets took fright. It goes against everything believed by people of a certain obsessive ideology. That tax cuts equal economic nirvana and tax rises equals economic doom. Reality is a bit more complicated.
I did mention the Bank's action actually. The Bank chose to engage in QT and that is when the markets took fright, but the mini budget got the blame.
The tax cuts are an irrelevant side show to be honest, though they get the political headlines and will carry the news. The Bank selling rather than buying £80bn of gilts while the State had to borrow to pay for energy support etc would have tipped over the market either way, with or without the taxes.
The Bank reversed their decision to engage in QT and the markets stabilised.
Any proof for that?
I mean on a timeline it was the statement that caused the reaction in the markets and I don't know exactly what you are basing this on. Which high level voices in the financial world have been saying that.
On a timeline, the Bank announced it would begin QT only last week.
Though it took some time for people to fully comprehend just what that meant, the sell off of Sterling began immediately, before the Chancellor even began to speak on Friday it had already started falling. Yes the markets overreacted to the Chancellor's statement, but missing what the Bank did is missing a critical piece of the puzzle.
The Bank reversing their QT decision has brought some measure of stability back to the markets.
QE combined with raising interest rates is not a stable policy combination.
The fact that the BoE was forced into it in order to prevent insolvency of pension funds is not a triumph of policy, nor one that can last. The clock is ticking on it already.
There is no stable policy combination though, and you were in favour of Covid lockdowns, this is the end result.
You don't get to spend hundreds of billions for Covid, then hundreds of billions for gas, put it on a national credit card bought off by the Bank of England printing money, then expect that to be unwound without it causing turmoil.
Had the Bank not engaged in QE in the first place, we'd never have been able to afford lockdown, and this reckoning would have happened years ago. You can only kick the can so far.
Oh come on: this isn't the result of Covid lockdowns (except possibly the result of Chinese Covid lockdowns on the world economy).
The economic problems we're suffering from are mostly the same as all countries:
(a) The removal of a very large amount of natural gas from the world market, which is sending gas and electricity prices through the roof.
(b) This is leading to inflation, resulting in pressure on wages, on government costs (the triple lock in the UK making it worse) and on the rate at which the government borrows.
(c) In parallel to this, there are long term secular trends in public expenditure that make it very hard for governments - in particular the issue of an ageing population, and a potentially inverting population pyramid. (See Japan and Italy for the long-term impacts of demographics on economic growth.)
(d) Finally, there are some non-trivial UK-specific headwinds - notably an excessive reliance on consumption for economic growth, high levels of consumer debt and (relatedly) a general mortgaging of the assets of UK PLC.
But we've gone pretty quickly from being seen as one of the safest countries in the G7 against default to one of the riskiest in the space of a few months? Why? None of those factors would suggest that. It's due to the recklessness of the government.
Well, there's a fair amount of overreaction in the market's reaction.
Here's my theory: most countries are choosing austerity in response to the impact from Ukraine. Belts are being tightened, and cuts are being made. That was also the path of the UK Government under Sunak. Caution was the watchword.
Now, by contrast, the UK is cutting taxes to try and get the economy moving (at the same time as offering massive support for energy bills). @BartholomewRoberts is right that we probably should be looking to reduce the tax burden. But it's also the case that we should seek to balance the budget, because there are second order effects (such as structurally higher interest rates) that come from not doing that.
Had Kwarteng come out with a plan that contained tax cuts, and also reductions in spending, then the market would have responded differently. But claiming that the budget would somehow pay for itself seems optimistic.
The gist of what you are saying is it wasn’t a balanced budget - like taking a plane but not planting a tree? There he is at airport, ignoring reporters with “I ain’t planting trees to offset my plane rides” and that upset people?
Here’s a technical question way out my league, and I am probably completely embarrassing myself thinking like this - but if a sewer was going to be engulfed in sewage, I would have concerns about it working well as a sewer. The actual mechanism to get the money off the magic money tree - about a quarter trillion pound of it - was to wrap what you owe up (I see little pasta parcels at this point) and sell it on the little pasta parcel of debt market - which brings in the sewer metaphor - will the little pasta parcel of debt market function okay with such a flood of little pasta parcels, does that explain way it moved upwards, as much as disliking the flava of our pasta parcel filling and thinking the taste of them would be difficult to sell?
Excl - Third of Tory voters prepare to abandon party over housing - Rent Wall could be the new Red Wall in dozens of swing seats according to new polling, from me and @hoffman_noa
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Prediction.
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
The government caved in on paying people's energy bills this winter. They haven't got much credit for doing so, have they?
You don't get credit for doing what people expect should happen regardless.
And seeing things in terms of caving in is incredibly childish. The question is whether it helps the country or, even, the party. Is the current path helping either?
The answer is clearly no - since they didn't see the reaction coming, their claims of what their plans would have done are clearly pretty improbable as well.
A question for the stupid, selfish, parasitical old wrinklies that voted for Truss to be PM. You’ve destroyed the economy. You’ve destroyed your party. Are you happy now?
Excl - Third of Tory voters prepare to abandon party over housing - Rent Wall could be the new Red Wall in dozens of swing seats according to new polling, from me and @hoffman_noa
Hmm. Uncle Rupe is surely on the verge of making overtures to Sir Keir. I can't imagine him backing a party that's about to return 2 MPs. Sir Keir will probably accept his support, but will be more cagey about it than Tone was.
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Prediction.
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
F***.
I understand he is giving Ukraine a fortnight to get out of "Mother Russia".
So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
I notice those shrugging their shoulders - Sean F, William G and Barth - are not mentioning the intervention by the Bank of England to stop pension funds collapsing. As for interest rates, we now have inflation. Of course interest are going to go up. It has already started. But the essential argument was whether the Bank should have gone 0.25% higher on Thursday, which now feels rather academic.
My sense is that certain people cannot accept that whilst Sunak's tax rises were in place the markets had confidence in UK borrowing. Once they were reversed and then some, the markets took fright. It goes against everything believed by people of a certain obsessive ideology. That tax cuts equal economic nirvana and tax rises equals economic doom. Reality is a bit more complicated.
I did mention the Bank's action actually. The Bank chose to engage in QT and that is when the markets took fright, but the mini budget got the blame.
The tax cuts are an irrelevant side show to be honest, though they get the political headlines and will carry the news. The Bank selling rather than buying £80bn of gilts while the State had to borrow to pay for energy support etc would have tipped over the market either way, with or without the taxes.
The Bank reversed their decision to engage in QT and the markets stabilised.
Any proof for that?
I mean on a timeline it was the statement that caused the reaction in the markets and I don't know exactly what you are basing this on. Which high level voices in the financial world have been saying that.
On a timeline, the Bank announced it would begin QT only last week.
Though it took some time for people to fully comprehend just what that meant, the sell off of Sterling began immediately, before the Chancellor even began to speak on Friday it had already started falling. Yes the markets overreacted to the Chancellor's statement, but missing what the Bank did is missing a critical piece of the puzzle.
The Bank reversing their QT decision has brought some measure of stability back to the markets.
QE combined with raising interest rates is not a stable policy combination.
The fact that the BoE was forced into it in order to prevent insolvency of pension funds is not a triumph of policy, nor one that can last. The clock is ticking on it already.
There is no stable policy combination though, and you were in favour of Covid lockdowns, this is the end result.
You don't get to spend hundreds of billions for Covid, then hundreds of billions for gas, put it on a national credit card bought off by the Bank of England printing money, then expect that to be unwound without it causing turmoil.
Had the Bank not engaged in QE in the first place, we'd never have been able to afford lockdown, and this reckoning would have happened years ago. You can only kick the can so far.
Oh come on: this isn't the result of Covid lockdowns (except possibly the result of Chinese Covid lockdowns on the world economy).
The economic problems we're suffering from are mostly the same as all countries:
(a) The removal of a very large amount of natural gas from the world market, which is sending gas and electricity prices through the roof.
(b) This is leading to inflation, resulting in pressure on wages, on government costs (the triple lock in the UK making it worse) and on the rate at which the government borrows.
(c) In parallel to this, there are long term secular trends in public expenditure that make it very hard for governments - in particular the issue of an ageing population, and a potentially inverting population pyramid. (See Japan and Italy for the long-term impacts of demographics on economic growth.)
(d) Finally, there are some non-trivial UK-specific headwinds - notably an excessive reliance on consumption for economic growth, high levels of consumer debt and (relatedly) a general mortgaging of the assets of UK PLC.
But we've gone pretty quickly from being seen as one of the safest countries in the G7 against default to one of the riskiest in the space of a few months? Why? None of those factors would suggest that. It's due to the recklessness of the government.
Well, there's a fair amount of overreaction in the market's reaction.
Here's my theory: most countries are choosing austerity in response to the impact from Ukraine. Belts are being tightened, and cuts are being made. That was also the path of the UK Government under Sunak. Caution was the watchword.
Now, by contrast, the UK is cutting taxes to try and get the economy moving (at the same time as offering massive support for energy bills). @BartholomewRoberts is right that we probably should be looking to reduce the tax burden. But it's also the case that we should seek to balance the budget, because there are second order effects (such as structurally higher interest rates) that come from not doing that.
Had Kwarteng come out with a plan that contained tax cuts, and also reductions in spending, then the market would have responded differently. But claiming that the budget would somehow pay for itself seems optimistic.
The gist of what you are saying is it wasn’t a balanced budget - like taking a plane but not planting a tree? There he is at airport, ignoring reporters with “I ain’t planting trees to offset my plane rides” and that upset people?
Here’s a technical question way out my league, and I am probably completely embarrassing myself thinking like this - but if a sewer was going to be engulfed in sewage, I would have concerns about it working well as a sewer. The actual mechanism to get the money off the magic money tree - about a quarter trillion pound of it - was to wrap what you owe up (I see little pasta parcels at this point) and sell it on the little pasta parcel of debt market - which brings in the sewer metaphor - will the little pasta parcel of debt market function okay with such a flood of little pasta parcels, does that explain way it moved upwards, as much as disliking the flava of our pasta parcel filling and thinking the taste of them would be difficult to sell?
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Prediction.
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
F***.
That is something they are probably better equipped to handle. They won't feel it worth indulging adolescent theories just for shits and giggles.
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Prediction.
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
F***.
I understand he is giving Ukraine a fortnight to get out of "Mother Russia".
So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
Lord Frostspittle, a pious sycophant who affects to be a man of high morals, appoints himself as tutor to the young hero whom he mistakenly thinks is due a great inheritance. https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1575605050717925378
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Prediction.
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
F***.
That is something they are probably better equipped to handle. They won't feel it worth indulging adolescent theories just for shits and giggles.
When playing Madmens Checkers, being the biggest loony in the room is the winning move.
Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.
There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Prediction.
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
F***.
I understand he is giving Ukraine a fortnight to get out of "Mother Russia".
So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
Done.
I think the target will be Lvov.
Bunker down folks.
Due to Russian quality control, the missile targeted at Lviv will probably hit Malmo.
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Prediction.
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
F***.
Truss and Kwarteng haven't sacked the top people at the MoD for disagreeing with them as they did at the Treasury. Wallace is Secretary of State for Defence. I have a reasonable degree of confidence in the US President and the Secretary-General of NATO.
I don't think Truss is going to be looking to rock the boat in defence matters in the way she has done with tax and borrowing. So I don't particularly have your concerns.
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Prediction.
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
F***.
I understand he is giving Ukraine a fortnight to get out of "Mother Russia".
So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
Done.
I think the target will be Lvov.
Bunker down folks.
Due to Russian quality control, the missile targeted at Lviv will probably hit Malmo.
The pound is back up to 1.11 dollars, not far from where it was before the crisis, which was 1.15.
That's "cable" for you - ups and downs but more downs than ups.
Shouldntbyou be going out to join the happy people in Hampstead who dont seem to care much that millions are now struggling with mortgages and bills...they all seem so happy lol
Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.
I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
I'm afraid that, in that case, your dad is a fool. This is a nasty disease, which only the vaccines protect us from, and that protection fades fairly quickly. Unfortunately, cases are rising again, quite fast.
Anyone who's eligible: get thee to a jabbery, as soon as you can.
Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.
I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
I'm afraid that, in that case, your dad is a fool. This is a nasty disease, which only the vaccines protect us from, and that protection fades fairly quickly. Unfortunately, cases are rising again, quite fast.
Anyone who's eligible: get thee to a jabbery, as soon as you can.
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."
Prediction.
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
F***.
I don't predict this but if so the good news is that Biden not Truss is the key western politician.
Comments
More than four million people receive Universal Credit. The Resolution Foundation think tank said some working families could be £1,000 a year worse off if benefits do not rise with average prices.
However, ministers did move to reassure pensioners that the “triple lock” remains, meaning state pensions will rise in line with inflation despite the wider spending squeeze.
So they will protect pensioners in the hope that they continue to vote Tory.
The pound is recovering because markets are now pricing in big interest rate rises from the BoE after multiple MPC members are going on record to say there will need to be record rate rises to contain this. Some are also pricing in an October statement that outlines £25-30bn in spending cuts and the reversal of some of these measures. If these don't arrive expect sterling to start falling again.
Once again, the cause of this is the government announcing £45bn in unfunded tax cuts and then suggesting that cutting the 45% rate would raise trend growth enough to make it all self funding. It's complete fantasy economics and financial markets are very, very good at calling bullshit. This is the result.
Much of the rest I agree with.
Personally, I'd have abolished employee NI and increased the Income tax rates by 13% to compensate, thus effectively rolling NI into Income Tax... And also increased the ICT personal allowance by inflation.
If you pump in the YouGov findings (SNP 44%, SLab 38%, SCon 10%, Grn 4%, SLD 2%), you get (new boundaries):
SNP 44 seats (-3)
SLab 12 seats (+11)
SCon 0 seats (-6)
SLD 0 seats (-2)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, and Gordon and Moray South would all be SNP gains from SCon.
Make more stacking shelves. They can bring it down. But they won't. Cos they are the backbone of the nation.
In general it was nice to just chew the fat but it did come with a general acceptance and realisation, they nearly sank the fucking ship, they almost ruined millions, they still might. Its unforgivable. Im playing catch up and getting angry.
Arse.biscuits.
Just as a u-turn now is inevitable but they will spend the next two weeks pretending they won't so the ever diminishing fan club will lap up how tough they are.
If modern politicians could leave their egos and ideologies behind for a bit, plan ahead and think through consequences, then they will get some credit.
The silly thing is that there was no need to do so, the tax cuts could have waited until a Spring Budget.
I gather that the Tory backbench revolt is going to focus on kicking the 45p abolition down the road, through an amendment to the Finance Bill. I wouldn't have thought that would be enough to appease popular anger at the moment. My impression is that it's not especially directed at Truss, for whom there remains some sympathy for her torrid start. Rather, people really feel the Conservatives as a whole have completely lost the plot.
Lack of any other support staff. Technicians, admin., nurses, lunch supervisors have all been rebranded as TA.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19960589/a-third-of-tory-renters-will-abandon-the-party/
I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
The Charter is clear.
Any annexation of a State’s territory by another State resulting from the threat or use of force is a violation of the Principles of the Charter & int’l law.
https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/status/1575525551552569344
Here’s a technical question way out my league, and I am probably completely embarrassing myself thinking like this - but if a sewer was going to be engulfed in sewage, I would have concerns about it working well as a sewer. The actual mechanism to get the money off the magic money tree - about a quarter trillion pound of it - was to wrap what you owe up (I see little pasta parcels at this point) and sell it on the little pasta parcel of debt market - which brings in the sewer metaphor - will the little pasta parcel of debt market function okay with such a flood of little pasta parcels, does that explain way it moved upwards, as much as disliking the flava of our pasta parcel filling and thinking the taste of them would be difficult to sell?
All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.
Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.
F***.
Shame....
And seeing things in terms of caving in is incredibly childish. The question is whether it helps the country or, even, the party. Is the current path helping either?
The answer is clearly no - since they didn't see the reaction coming, their claims of what their plans would have done are clearly pretty improbable as well.
And large chunks of tax cutting in what’s being dubbed “the pasty of all bad budgets”.
NOM 2.57
Lab Maj 2.88
Con Maj 5.12
So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
by twiddling around on - https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/mortgages/best-buys/?journeyType=first-time-buyer&propertyValue=600000&depositAmount=70000&term=40&introTypes=Lifetime&introTerms=Fixed&repaymentMethod=Repayment&sortBy=MonthlyRepaymentAmount&pageNumber=1&addFeeToBalance=false&productNoFee=false&noEarlyRepaymentCharge=false
I managed to find a fixed rate of 5%.
For 40 years.....
*Improved treatments have made some difference, I understand.
Christmas must be coming.
I think the target will be Lvov.
Bunker down folks.
But it would do it no good...
Great. Just fucking great.
The poor must suffer for the tories sins.
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1575605050717925378
There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.
Spectre of return to austerity raises alarm in Whitehall - my @ft latest with @ChrisGiles_ and colleagues.
https://on.ft.com/3BXSJJ9 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1575608014480240640/photo/1
Probability of russia striking ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons very high
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1575566757498355712?s=20&t=poDDByTQFqdmU7Uk3KjxUg
I don't think Truss is going to be looking to rock the boat in defence matters in the way she has done with tax and borrowing. So I don't particularly have your concerns.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11263599/Liz-Truss-vows-borrowing-track-PM-denies-pretending-no-crisis.html
I suspect the "meeting" will include her telling them that spending will be affected very heavily, at least in welfare and other areas.
What wonderful and equitable messaging that would be, if so.
Anyone who's eligible: get thee to a jabbery, as soon as you can.