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Truss isn’t working – politicalbetting.com

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  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    I notice those shrugging their shoulders - Sean F, William G and Barth - are not mentioning the intervention by the Bank of England to stop pension funds collapsing. As for interest rates, we now have inflation. Of course interest are going to go up. It has already started. But the essential argument was whether the Bank should have gone 0.25% higher on Thursday, which now feels rather academic.

    My sense is that certain people cannot accept that whilst Sunak's tax rises were in place the markets had confidence in UK borrowing. Once they were reversed and then some, the markets took fright. It goes against everything believed by people of a certain obsessive ideology. That tax cuts equal economic nirvana and tax rises equals economic doom. Reality is a bit more complicated.

    I did mention the Bank's action actually. The Bank chose to engage in QT and that is when the markets took fright, but the mini budget got the blame.

    The tax cuts are an irrelevant side show to be honest, though they get the political headlines and will carry the news. The Bank selling rather than buying £80bn of gilts while the State had to borrow to pay for energy support etc would have tipped over the market either way, with or without the taxes.

    The Bank reversed their decision to engage in QT and the markets stabilised.
    Any proof for that?

    I mean on a timeline it was the statement that caused the reaction in the markets and I don't know exactly what you are basing this on. Which high level voices in the financial world have been saying that.
    On a timeline, the Bank announced it would begin QT only last week.

    Though it took some time for people to fully comprehend just what that meant, the sell off of Sterling began immediately, before the Chancellor even began to speak on Friday it had already started falling. Yes the markets overreacted to the Chancellor's statement, but missing what the Bank did is missing a critical piece of the puzzle.

    The Bank reversing their QT decision has brought some measure of stability back to the markets.
    QE combined with raising interest rates is not a stable policy combination.

    The fact that the BoE was forced into it in order to prevent insolvency of pension funds is not a triumph of policy, nor one that can last. The clock is ticking on it already.
    There is no stable policy combination though, and you were in favour of Covid lockdowns, this is the end result.

    You don't get to spend hundreds of billions for Covid, then hundreds of billions for gas, put it on a national credit card bought off by the Bank of England printing money, then expect that to be unwound without it causing turmoil.

    Had the Bank not engaged in QE in the first place, we'd never have been able to afford lockdown, and this reckoning would have happened years ago. You can only kick the can so far.
    Oh come on: this isn't the result of Covid lockdowns (except possibly the result of Chinese Covid lockdowns on the world economy).

    The economic problems we're suffering from are mostly the same as all countries:

    (a) The removal of a very large amount of natural gas from the world market, which is sending gas and electricity prices through the roof.

    (b) This is leading to inflation, resulting in pressure on wages, on government costs (the triple lock in the UK making it worse) and on the rate at which the government borrows.

    (c) In parallel to this, there are long term secular trends in public expenditure that make it very hard for governments - in particular the issue of an ageing population, and a potentially inverting population pyramid. (See Japan and Italy for the long-term impacts of demographics on economic growth.)

    (d) Finally, there are some non-trivial UK-specific headwinds - notably an excessive reliance on consumption for economic growth, high levels of consumer debt and (relatedly) a general mortgaging of the assets of UK PLC.
    But we've gone pretty quickly from being seen as one of the safest countries in the G7 against default to one of the riskiest in the space of a few months? Why? None of those factors would suggest that. It's due to the recklessness of the government.
    Well, there's a fair amount of overreaction in the market's reaction.

    Here's my theory: most countries are choosing austerity in response to the impact from Ukraine. Belts are being tightened, and cuts are being made. That was also the path of the UK Government under Sunak. Caution was the watchword.

    Now, by contrast, the UK is cutting taxes to try and get the economy moving (at the same time as offering massive support for energy bills). @BartholomewRoberts is right that we probably should be looking to reduce the tax burden. But it's also the case that we should seek to balance the budget, because there are second order effects (such as structurally higher interest rates) that come from not doing that.

    Had Kwarteng come out with a plan that contained tax cuts, and also reductions in spending, then the market would have responded differently. But claiming that the budget would somehow pay for itself seems optimistic.
    The gist of what you are saying is it wasn’t a balanced budget - like taking a plane but not planting a tree? There he is at airport, ignoring reporters with “I ain’t planting trees to offset my plane rides” and that upset people?

    Here’s a technical question way out my league, and I am probably completely embarrassing myself thinking like this - but if a sewer was going to be engulfed in sewage, I would have concerns about it working well as a sewer. The actual mechanism to get the money off the magic money tree - about a quarter trillion pound of it - was to wrap what you owe up (I see little pasta parcels at this point) and sell it on the little pasta parcel of debt market - which brings in the sewer metaphor - will the little pasta parcel of debt market function okay with such a flood of little pasta parcels, does that explain way it moved upwards, as much as disliking the flava of our pasta parcel filling and thinking the taste of them would be difficult to sell?
    Its not a question of a balanced budget its a question of a totally unbalanced budget. We are running a huge deficit thanks to covid and ukraine one after the other. We aren't alone in this most western states are in much the same position.

    We have idiots here saying the tories done bad labour will do better. They are wrong. Which is not saying at all I think the tories done good. Its saying all the parties really won't do anything to fix it. Not a single one has a clue.

    We have two choices....raise tax or reduce spending

    We can raise tax via income tax but the only way to do that and actually come close to closing the deficit is to raise the basic rate. There simply arent enough higher rate tax payers around to come close to just taxing them.

    The second way of raising tax is a wealth tax....as is always pointed out doing that will make a lot of people homeless. The answer being they can defer it till the house is sold or they die....well I dont see that helps as we need the tax now not in 10 or 20 years time and it disincentivises people downsizing to boot.

    So that leaves talking about what the state does and deciding what our priorities are.

    Frankly under any party this country is on a course to crash and burn in a fire of debt whichever party is ruling. The same with most western countries until we all grow up and start talking about this is what we can realistically raise now what shall we spend it on.
  • kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I understand he is giving Ukraine a fortnight to get out of "Mother Russia".

    So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
    Done.

    I think the target will be Lvov.

    Bunker down folks.
    Due to Russian quality control, the missile targeted at Lviv will probably hit Malmo.
    Has anyone told them about what3words?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    PeterM said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    Covid is now as fatal as flu, but is about 3 times as infectious. People are free to ignore it at their peril.
    Like the flu it is seasonal, unlike the flu it is every single season.
    We do have a thing called vaccines foxy...remember them
    One each year for flu.
  • ⚡️Polish minister: NATO may strike Russia with aircraft, missiles if it uses nukes in Ukraine.

    Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau said in an interview with Polish radio RMF FM that NATO would have a conventional response to a possible Russian nuclear attack against Ukraine.


    https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1575585903300386816
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Four polls published in the last hour

    🔴 YouGov: Labour 33pt lead
    🔴 Survation: Labour 21pt lead
    🔴 Deltapoll: Labour 19pt lead
    🔴 Redfield & Wilton: Labour 17pt lead

    Average lead 22.5pt.
    If we think the Kantor and yougov are outliers, what’s the others average then?
    18.5% (including Survation 21%, R&W 17%, Delta 19%, FindoutNow 17%)
    The day the polls moved alright - conference week or not, even without you giving the average must be high than 15%

    One sad aspect of it, many original pro Tory posters are disappearing off PB - we still got many, but not necessarily the right ones, like those good at punning and jokes and interesting hobbies and interest in ours
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    edited September 2022
    I regret to say I think that the chances of this escalating to strategic nuclear strikes between NATO and Russia is pretty high.

    We are planning our escape, once the first trigger is pulled (a Russian tactical nuke) and the taboo is broken.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited September 2022

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I understand he is giving Ukraine a fortnight to get out of "Mother Russia".

    So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
    Done.

    I think the target will be Lvov.

    Bunker down folks.
    Due to Russian quality control, the missile targeted at Lviv will probably hit Malmo.
    Malmö
    From Lwów to Malmö
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,536
    The Tories put more children into poverty to fund tax cuts for the rich . If this is a winning message for the electorate then humanity is in a desperate state .
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    I'm afraid that, in that case, your dad is a fool. This is a nasty disease, which only the vaccines protect us from, and that protection fades fairly quickly. Unfortunately, cases are rising again, quite fast.

    Anyone who's eligible: get thee to a jabbery, as soon as you can.
    Takeup for this round of jabs will be way lower judging from what my dad and his friends say
  • kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I don't predict this but if so the good news is that Biden not Truss is the key western politician.
    Truss will not be allowed to do anything by her command and defence team without a discussion with Biden imho.

  • Pulpstar said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I understand he is giving Ukraine a fortnight to get out of "Mother Russia".

    So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
    Done.

    I think the target will be Lvov.

    Bunker down folks.
    Due to Russian quality control, the missile targeted at Lviv will probably hit Malmo.
    Malmö
    From Lwów to Malmö
    Clang! It's Lviv now!
  • PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    I'm afraid that, in that case, your dad is a fool. This is a nasty disease, which only the vaccines protect us from, and that protection fades fairly quickly. Unfortunately, cases are rising again, quite fast.

    Anyone who's eligible: get thee to a jabbery, as soon as you can.
    Done.
    Done this afternoon: covid and flu.

    One arm is sore so far. We will see what tomorrow brings.

    Moderna is the drug of choice this autumn.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited September 2022
    Labour GAIN in Newark/Sherwood. Havent got the figures yet but the Tories only won by 6 votes in 2019 so Lab were always winning this one today!
  • kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I understand he is giving Ukraine a fortnight to get out of "Mother Russia".

    So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
    Done.

    I think the target will be Lvov.

    Bunker down folks.
    Due to Russian quality control, the missile targeted at Lviv will probably hit Malmo.
    Has anyone told them about what3words?
    Leon.was.here
  • kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I understand he is giving Ukraine a fortnight to get out of "Mother Russia".

    So still time to stock up on tinned goods and bottled water.
    Done.

    I think the target will be Lvov.

    Bunker down folks.
    Due to Russian quality control, the missile targeted at Lviv will probably hit Malmo.
    Has anyone told them about what3words?
    Where does FuckYouPutin land?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    I'm afraid that, in that case, your dad is a fool. This is a nasty disease, which only the vaccines protect us from, and that protection fades fairly quickly. Unfortunately, cases are rising again, quite fast.

    Anyone who's eligible: get thee to a jabbery, as soon as you can.
    I'm all booked up for my jab next Friday. Hopefully they'll do the flu jab while I'm there too.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    TimS said:

    I regret to say I think that the chances of this escalating to strategic nuclear strikes between NATO and Russia is pretty high.

    We are planning our escape, once the first trigger is pulled (a Russian tactical nuke) and the taboo is broken.

    I might be heading off to argentina...good and cheap food and beautiful women
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    Covid is now as fatal as flu, but is about 3 times as infectious. People are free to ignore it at their peril.
    Without the vaccinations it is pretty much* as lethal as before.....

    *Improved treatments have made some difference, I understand.
    I think Omicron is rarely fatal, though a pretty miserable thing to have, and a significant contributor to longer hospital stays.

    The Atlantic covers it well:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/09/covid-pandemic-end-worse-than-flu/671514/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨🚨🙄“Whitehall finance directors are being told to prepare for cuts.”

    Spectre of return to austerity raises alarm in Whitehall - my @ft latest with @ChrisGiles_ and colleagues.

    https://on.ft.com/3BXSJJ9 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1575608014480240640/photo/1

    Can we have the lying jizz bag clown back please?

    I recant everything I said about him.

    Only Truss could have done this to me.
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 113
    Anyone see Kawczynski on Newsnight with Victoria Darbyshire?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited September 2022
    Edwinstowe & Clipstone (Newark & Sherwood) By-Election Result:

    LAB: 59.8% (+10.0)
    CON: 40.2% (-10.0)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.

    Not desperately bad for the blues actually as this was pre 2019 a safe Lab ward
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited September 2022
    It may sound odd, but at moments like these I take a bit of comfort from Nostradamus. Supposedly, according to the eccentric medieval chap, things will get terrible this year, before improving across the board for humanity next year. I doubt things would be able to improve if we're all gone.

    The equivalent of newspaper astrology, you may say, but there's something oddly and curiously apt about a number of his predictions for our specific period. I draw a bit of comfort from that, anyway.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Sterling up, the news of austerity measures has made an impact. We need a fully costed plan ASAP.

    I don't agree with real terms cuts to benefits if the same real terms cut isn't also applied to pensions (state and public sector). So even if Liz Truss funds these tax cuts with this kind of austerity I'm still firmly in the Labour camp.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
  • RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Crowd: "It was a budget for the rich - hand outs for millionaires. Disgrace. I'm voting Labour"

    Truss: "We know and we hear what people are saying about the cost of all this and so we are going to cut the poor's benefits."

    Utterly despicable . Sickening . My loathing for Truss and her odious sidekick is beginning to reach Bozo levels .
    Did she actually say that?
    No. I was paraphrasing what she and her minions seem to be briefing tonight.

    Triple lock client vote - safe.

    Everything else to be razed to the ground.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    It may sound odd, but at moments like these I take a bit of comfort from Nostradamus. Supposedly, according to the eccentric medieval chap, things will get terrible this year, before improving across the board next year. I doubt things woluld be able to improve if we're all gone.

    The equivalent of newspaper astrology you may say, but there's some curiously apt about many of his predictions for our specfiic period. I draw a bit of comfort from that, anyway.

    If a nuclear holocaust beckons buy stocks left and right
    Why
    No nuclear holocaust...you make a fortune
    Nuclear holocaust..who cares about money
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    PeterM said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    Covid is now as fatal as flu, but is about 3 times as infectious. People are free to ignore it at their peril.
    Like the flu it is seasonal, unlike the flu it is every single season.
    We do have a thing called vaccines foxy...remember them
    Indeed I do. You seem to have been triggered by me having mine.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Thankfully we don't get this sort of thing on PB.


    We can’t we have that on PB, it sounds interesting.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    Covid is now as fatal as flu, but is about 3 times as infectious. People are free to ignore it at their peril.
    Like the flu it is seasonal, unlike the flu it is every single season.
    We do have a thing called vaccines foxy...remember them
    Indeed I do. You seem to have been triggered by me having mine.
    Couldnt care less what you do...if they make you feel safe go for it
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    LD hold in Harborough by 200 votes from Tories
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    Covid is now as fatal as flu, but is about 3 times as infectious. People are free to ignore it at their peril.
    Like the flu it is seasonal, unlike the flu it is every single season.
    We do have a thing called vaccines foxy...remember them
    Indeed I do. You seem to have been triggered by me having mine.
    Couldnt care less what you do...if they make you feel safe go for it
    Are you saying they are just a placebo, I thought they had been proven to lower the risk?
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨🚨🙄“Whitehall finance directors are being told to prepare for cuts.”

    Spectre of return to austerity raises alarm in Whitehall - my @ft latest with @ChrisGiles_ and colleagues.

    https://on.ft.com/3BXSJJ9 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1575608014480240640/photo/1

    Can we have the lying jizz bag clown back please?

    I recant everything I said about him.

    Only Truss could have done this to me.
    Perhaps the one thing she showed good political judgment on was that it was a bad idea to force him out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    RobD said:

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    Covid is now as fatal as flu, but is about 3 times as infectious. People are free to ignore it at their peril.
    Like the flu it is seasonal, unlike the flu it is every single season.
    We do have a thing called vaccines foxy...remember them
    Indeed I do. You seem to have been triggered by me having mine.
    Couldnt care less what you do...if they make you feel safe go for it
    Are you saying they are just a placebo, I thought they had been proven to lower the risk?
    The risk of dying or having severe complications certainly, but of catching it not so much.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Logan (Harborough) By-Election Result:

    LDM: 45.7% (+10.3)
    CON: 30.0% (+3.2)
    LAB: 19.6% (+10.6)
    IND: 4.7% (-6.3)

    No GRN (-17.8) as prev.

    Liberal Democrat HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2019.

  • GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.



  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
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    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    Covid is now as fatal as flu, but is about 3 times as infectious. People are free to ignore it at their peril.
    Like the flu it is seasonal, unlike the flu it is every single season.
    We do have a thing called vaccines foxy...remember them
    Indeed I do. You seem to have been triggered by me having mine.
    Couldnt care less what you do...if they make you feel safe go for it
    Are you saying they are just a placebo, I thought they had been proven to lower the risk?
    The risk of dying or having severe complications certainly, but of catching it not so much.
    That's what I mean by risk.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited September 2022
    kle4 said:

    Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.



    There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.

    I diagnose Brexit. It delivered the party - and sadly the country - into the hands of charlatans and lightweights. That will soon change but an awful lot of damage has been done. To the economy, to our society, to our politics, to standards in public life.

    Interestingly, it looks like the original consensus view that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party will - after a brief interregnum where it seemed that Labour would bear the brunt - come to pass.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073

    LD hold in Harborough by 200 votes from Tories

    Quite strong Labour vote too for Market Harborough, though no Green this time.

    Harborough Logan ward result.
    Conservatives 382.
    Independent 60.
    Labour 250
    Geraldine Whitmore Lib Dem is elected with 582
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.



    There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.

    I diagnose Brexit. It delivered the party - and sadly the country - into the hands of charlatans and lightweights. That will soon change but an awful lot of damage has been done. To the economy, to our society, to our politics, to standards in public life.

    Interestingly, it looks like the original consensus view that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party will - after a brief interregnum where it seemed that Labour would bear the brunt - come to pass.
    Who cares. Brexit is done, and it shall not be undone

    Just rejoice in that news
  • If Kwarteng had done exactly the same budget but without the 45p abolition, he could have put all the focus on lowering the basic rate as a 'thank you' to the people who kept the country going during the lockdowns. Even if the market reaction had been the same, it wouldn't have been as politically damaging.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited September 2022

    PeterM said:

    Foxy said:

    And now for something completely... the same

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    Yes, my hospital is back up to over 100 covid cases again.

    I had my Moderna bivalent vaccine 2 weeks ago. Flu vaccine shortly
    Honestly no one cares anymore. Even my dad isnt getting the latest jab
    I'm afraid that, in that case, your dad is a fool. This is a nasty disease, which only the vaccines protect us from, and that protection fades fairly quickly. Unfortunately, cases are rising again, quite fast.

    Anyone who's eligible: get thee to a jabbery, as soon as you can.
    “which only the vaccines protect us from”

    doesn’t getting it stop you having it again for a while?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.



    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.



    There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.

    I diagnose Brexit. It delivered the party - and sadly the country - into the hands of charlatans and lightweights. That will soon change but an awful lot of damage has been done. To the economy, to our society, to our politics, to standards in public life.

    Interestingly, it looks like the original consensus view that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party will - after a brief interregnum where it seemed that Labour would bear the brunt - come to pass.
    But the brexit vote was driven by concerns over immigration in the red wall. Those concerns have not gone away. Remember the pre 2016 world was great for the urban borgeious such as yourself who made money by gambling in the city...not so good for others
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,171
    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    I notice those shrugging their shoulders - Sean F, William G and Barth - are not mentioning the intervention by the Bank of England to stop pension funds collapsing. As for interest rates, we now have inflation. Of course interest are going to go up. It has already started. But the essential argument was whether the Bank should have gone 0.25% higher on Thursday, which now feels rather academic.

    My sense is that certain people cannot accept that whilst Sunak's tax rises were in place the markets had confidence in UK borrowing. Once they were reversed and then some, the markets took fright. It goes against everything believed by people of a certain obsessive ideology. That tax cuts equal economic nirvana and tax rises equals economic doom. Reality is a bit more complicated.

    I did mention the Bank's action actually. The Bank chose to engage in QT and that is when the markets took fright, but the mini budget got the blame.

    The tax cuts are an irrelevant side show to be honest, though they get the political headlines and will carry the news. The Bank selling rather than buying £80bn of gilts while the State had to borrow to pay for energy support etc would have tipped over the market either way, with or without the taxes.

    The Bank reversed their decision to engage in QT and the markets stabilised.
    Any proof for that?

    I mean on a timeline it was the statement that caused the reaction in the markets and I don't know exactly what you are basing this on. Which high level voices in the financial world have been saying that.
    On a timeline, the Bank announced it would begin QT only last week.

    Though it took some time for people to fully comprehend just what that meant, the sell off of Sterling began immediately, before the Chancellor even began to speak on Friday it had already started falling. Yes the markets overreacted to the Chancellor's statement, but missing what the Bank did is missing a critical piece of the puzzle.

    The Bank reversing their QT decision has brought some measure of stability back to the markets.
    QE combined with raising interest rates is not a stable policy combination.

    The fact that the BoE was forced into it in order to prevent insolvency of pension funds is not a triumph of policy, nor one that can last. The clock is ticking on it already.
    There is no stable policy combination though, and you were in favour of Covid lockdowns, this is the end result.

    You don't get to spend hundreds of billions for Covid, then hundreds of billions for gas, put it on a national credit card bought off by the Bank of England printing money, then expect that to be unwound without it causing turmoil.

    Had the Bank not engaged in QE in the first place, we'd never have been able to afford lockdown, and this reckoning would have happened years ago. You can only kick the can so far.
    Oh come on: this isn't the result of Covid lockdowns (except possibly the result of Chinese Covid lockdowns on the world economy).

    The economic problems we're suffering from are mostly the same as all countries:

    (a) The removal of a very large amount of natural gas from the world market, which is sending gas and electricity prices through the roof.

    (b) This is leading to inflation, resulting in pressure on wages, on government costs (the triple lock in the UK making it worse) and on the rate at which the government borrows.

    (c) In parallel to this, there are long term secular trends in public expenditure that make it very hard for governments - in particular the issue of an ageing population, and a potentially inverting population pyramid. (See Japan and Italy for the long-term impacts of demographics on economic growth.)

    (d) Finally, there are some non-trivial UK-specific headwinds - notably an excessive reliance on consumption for economic growth, high levels of consumer debt and (relatedly) a general mortgaging of the assets of UK PLC.
    But we've gone pretty quickly from being seen as one of the safest countries in the G7 against default to one of the riskiest in the space of a few months? Why? None of those factors would suggest that. It's due to the recklessness of the government.
    Well, there's a fair amount of overreaction in the market's reaction.

    Here's my theory: most countries are choosing austerity in response to the impact from Ukraine. Belts are being tightened, and cuts are being made. That was also the path of the UK Government under Sunak. Caution was the watchword.

    Now, by contrast, the UK is cutting taxes to try and get the economy moving (at the same time as offering massive support for energy bills). @BartholomewRoberts is right that we probably should be looking to reduce the tax burden. But it's also the case that we should seek to balance the budget, because there are second order effects (such as structurally higher interest rates) that come from not doing that.

    Had Kwarteng come out with a plan that contained tax cuts, and also reductions in spending, then the market would have responded differently. But claiming that the budget would somehow pay for itself seems optimistic.
    The gist of what you are saying is it wasn’t a balanced budget - like taking a plane but not planting a tree? There he is at airport, ignoring reporters with “I ain’t planting trees to offset my plane rides” and that upset people?

    Here’s a technical question way out my league, and I am probably completely embarrassing myself thinking like this - but if a sewer was going to be engulfed in sewage, I would have concerns about it working well as a sewer. The actual mechanism to get the money off the magic money tree - about a quarter trillion pound of it - was to wrap what you owe up (I see little pasta parcels at this point) and sell it on the little pasta parcel of debt market - which brings in the sewer metaphor - will the little pasta parcel of debt market function okay with such a flood of little pasta parcels, does that explain way it moved upwards, as much as disliking the flava of our pasta parcel filling and thinking the taste of them would be difficult to sell?
    Its not a question of a balanced budget its a question of a totally unbalanced budget. We are running a huge deficit thanks to covid and ukraine one after the other. We aren't alone in this most western states are in much the same position.

    We have idiots here saying the tories done bad labour will do better. They are wrong. Which is not saying at all I think the tories done good. Its saying all the parties really won't do anything to fix it. Not a single one has a clue.

    We have two choices....raise tax or reduce spending

    We can raise tax via income tax but the only way to do that and actually come close to closing the deficit is to raise the basic rate. There simply arent enough higher rate tax payers around to come close to just taxing them.

    The second way of raising tax is a wealth tax....as is always pointed out doing that will make a lot of people homeless. The answer being they can defer it till the house is sold or they die....well I dont see that helps as we need the tax now not in 10 or 20 years time and it disincentivises people downsizing to boot.

    So that leaves talking about what the state does and deciding what our priorities are.

    Frankly under any party this country is on a course to crash and burn in a fire of debt whichever party is ruling. The same with most western countries until we all grow up and start talking about this is what we can realistically raise now what shall we spend it on.
    Like with Bart and COVID, there’s this persistent line from Conservatives that everything is terrible everywhere, so we’ve got to take our medicine and do the Difficult Things, which happen to align with libertarian philosophy. But other countries’ currencies and gilts didn’t collapse last Friday. There are challenges in the world, as always, but there are many options, many solutions. Whatever else is going on, Truss/Kwarteng made things much worse. We could instead do real things that will promote growth; we could introduce a successful wealth tax. We are a rich country, abundant with skills and innovative thinking. We can weather the storms without slashing and burning public services.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    PeterM said:

    TimS said:

    I regret to say I think that the chances of this escalating to strategic nuclear strikes between NATO and Russia is pretty high.

    We are planning our escape, once the first trigger is pulled (a Russian tactical nuke) and the taboo is broken.

    I might be heading off to argentina...good and cheap food and beautiful women
    The food is shit (steaks apart) and the women are hideous

    Fantastic wine, tho
  • kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.



    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
    "what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes"?

    MAD.

    They cross that line then Russia is over. It is a nuclear wasteland. As will be europe and america.

    We can only hope the game theory holds when humans are involved and enough sane people will pull Putin away from suicide.

    Easily the most dangerous few weeks ahead in my lifetime.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Seeing as we are all about to die from WMD, I'd just like some PB acknowledgment for my stunning prescience on this matter, over months

    I've been sounding the alarm over the high possibility that Putin would do this, to much mockery. Now you are all buying cans of beans

    Pff
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Leon said:

    PeterM said:

    TimS said:

    I regret to say I think that the chances of this escalating to strategic nuclear strikes between NATO and Russia is pretty high.

    We are planning our escape, once the first trigger is pulled (a Russian tactical nuke) and the taboo is broken.

    I might be heading off to argentina...good and cheap food and beautiful women
    The food is shit (steaks apart) and the women are hideous

    Fantastic wine, tho
    In the 2nd revision of Leon’s Guide To The Universe And Everything, didn’t you change “hideous” to “mostly hideous?”
  • If Kwarteng had done exactly the same budget but without the 45p abolition, he could have put all the focus on lowering the basic rate as a 'thank you' to the people who kept the country going during the lockdowns. Even if the market reaction had been the same, it wouldn't have been as politically damaging.

    Anecdotally, the 45p abolition was what I heard people fuming about from the very outset. But the subsequent financial mayhem is what has really left Kwarteng and Truss's credibility in tatters. I suppose it was a sort of cake-on-top-of-the-cherry thing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.



    There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.

    I diagnose Brexit. It delivered the party - and sadly the country - into the hands of charlatans and lightweights. That will soon change but an awful lot of damage has been done. To the economy, to our society, to our politics, to standards in public life.

    Interestingly, it looks like the original consensus view that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party will - after a brief interregnum where it seemed that Labour would bear the brunt - come to pass.
    Who cares. Brexit is done, and it shall not be undone.

    Just rejoice in that news.
    Yes I think it has reached that level now. The best one can say about it is that it just is.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited September 2022

    Logan (Harborough) By-Election Result:

    LDM: 45.7% (+10.3)
    CON: 30.0% (+3.2)
    LAB: 19.6% (+10.6)
    IND: 4.7% (-6.3)

    No GRN (-17.8) as prev.

    Liberal Democrat HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2019.

    So in the real world the Tory vote goes up 3%. Interesting. Slightly different to the 25% drop being shown by the opinion poll.
  • Someone else had a bad day.

    Kamala Harris made a diplomatic blunder as she mistakenly praised the US alliance “with the Republic of North Korea” during her trip to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.



    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
    "what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes"?

    MAD.

    They cross that line then Russia is over. It is a nuclear wasteland. As will be europe and america.

    We can only hope the game theory holds when humans are involved and enough sane people will pull Putin away from suicide.

    Easily the most dangerous few weeks ahead in my lifetime.

    If Russia uses nukes then that will be the end of Putin and the Russian military as a fighting force.. Putin is in his bunker relying on his Wunderwaffe and I agree these are very dangerous times.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.



    There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.

    I diagnose Brexit. It delivered the party - and sadly the country - into the hands of charlatans and lightweights. That will soon change but an awful lot of damage has been done. To the economy, to our society, to our politics, to standards in public life.

    Interestingly, it looks like the original consensus view that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party will - after a brief interregnum where it seemed that Labour would bear the brunt - come to pass.
    Who cares. Brexit is done, and it shall not be undone.

    Just rejoice in that news.
    Yes I think it has reached that level now. The best one can say about it is that it just is.
    But that is all I wanted. For it to just BE. For us to govern ourselves

    Do you still not understand this, or are you being deliberately obtuse?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.

    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
    The Ukrainian strikes on Crimea - which Russia claims is part of its territory - suggests that’s your assumption, and far from a fact.

    The US and NATO have been very clear that their response to a Russian nuclear attack would be a conventional response. And yes, they probably would hold off the whole big red button thing. The US aren’t going to be flying stuff at Moscow.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Leon:

    Right on Covid
    Right on Lab Leak
    Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE
    Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
    Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
    Right on What3Words taking over mapping
    Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
    Right on Woke (but unproven)
    Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird

    Also: unfortunately vaporised
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.



    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
    "what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes"?

    MAD.

    They cross that line then Russia is over. It is a nuclear wasteland. As will be europe and america.

    We can only hope the game theory holds when humans are involved and enough sane people will pull Putin away from suicide.

    Easily the most dangerous few weeks ahead in my lifetime.


    Agree.

    My point was, that a conventional strike on a Russian military base looks a whole lot like a nuclear strike from the perspective of a radar. All Russia is going to see is a missile or a bomber heading their way, and they will respond to what they perceive as a first strike. That's why the whole "we'll strike back but only with conventional weapons" thing is a red herring.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.



    There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.

    I diagnose Brexit. It delivered the party - and sadly the country - into the hands of charlatans and lightweights. That will soon change but an awful lot of damage has been done. To the economy, to our society, to our politics, to standards in public life.

    Interestingly, it looks like the original consensus view that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party will - after a brief interregnum where it seemed that Labour would bear the brunt - come to pass.
    The basic problem they've got is a similar albeit slightly different one to Remainers and Labour 2016-19. In that there are a group of true believers and a group of people who preferred it because thought would mean nice things. The former group themselves are quite divided between Singapore on Thames types and Faragists anyway. But anyway, the true believers drive policy but find that lots of the "well I thought it was a good idea" types don't like the consequences. I say similar but different to remain in that Corbyn obviously was far from a true believer but in his own way far from a pragmatist who'd reach out to others. So you had those who basically would've voted for anything to stop Brexit, who were a bit divorced from the bit of the Remain vote who would vote Tory because were more anti-Corbyn than Remain, didn't view Lib Dems as viable, and just wanted it all to stop and have a government doing normal things again. Exacerbated by Tory screw ups, and Keir Starmer being performatively unthreatening, lots from the "thought Brexit was a good idea but whatever" camp are now taking a second look at Labour as maybe addressing their needs, while Remainers, having been insulted a lot by the Tories as a political tactic, are still queueing up to give them a good shoeing, regardless of what might have been previous political leanings.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.



    There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.

    I diagnose Brexit. It delivered the party - and sadly the country - into the hands of charlatans and lightweights. That will soon change but an awful lot of damage has been done. To the economy, to our society, to our politics, to standards in public life.

    Interestingly, it looks like the original consensus view that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party will - after a brief interregnum where it seemed that Labour would bear the brunt - come to pass.
    Who cares. Brexit is done, and it shall not be undone.

    Just rejoice in that news.
    Yes I think it has reached that level now. The best one can say about it is that it just is.
    But that is all I wanted. For it to just BE. For us to govern ourselves

    Do you still not understand this, or are you being deliberately obtuse?
    We already governed ourselves, as we do now… as far as the markets allow us.

    I understand your obsession, but it’s your obsession rather than a general principle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576
    Leon said:

    Leon:

    Right on Covid
    Right on Lab Leak
    Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE
    Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
    Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
    Right on What3Words taking over mapping
    Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
    Right on Woke (but unproven)
    Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird

    Also: unfortunately vaporised

    Right pillock, a lot.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    If Kwarteng had done exactly the same budget but without the 45p abolition, he could have put all the focus on lowering the basic rate as a 'thank you' to the people who kept the country going during the lockdowns. Even if the market reaction had been the same, it wouldn't have been as politically damaging.

    Yes that has given Labour the knife to twist. "And for what?" etc.

    He looked so pleased with himself too when he announced it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056

    Someone else had a bad day.

    Kamala Harris made a diplomatic blunder as she mistakenly praised the US alliance “with the Republic of North Korea” during her trip to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).

    Kamala’s a twerp, but we have to get over the idea that misspeaking is a diplomatic blunder: no offence would have been taken.

    This is a real gaffe:

    https://news.sky.com/story/amp/joe-biden-asks-for-dead-congresswoman-in-gaffe-during-speech-12707309

    Imagine Trump had done that?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Nigelb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.

    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
    The Ukrainian strikes on Crimea - which Russia claims is part of its territory - suggests that’s your assumption, and far from a fact.

    The US and NATO have been very clear that their response to a Russian nuclear attack would be a conventional response. And yes, they probably would hold off the whole big red button thing. The US aren’t going to be flying stuff at Moscow.
    So you're a Russian general and you see a dozen US missiles heading into Russian airspace, but you don't press the big red button because you know the US have pinky promised there's "just" a conventional payload in them.

    Sorry, not buying it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.



    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
    "what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes"?

    MAD.

    They cross that line then Russia is over. It is a nuclear wasteland. As will be europe and america.

    We can only hope the game theory holds when humans are involved and enough sane people will pull Putin away from suicide.

    Easily the most dangerous few weeks ahead in my lifetime.


    Agree.

    My point was, that a conventional strike on a Russian military base looks a whole lot like a nuclear strike from the perspective of a radar. All Russia is going to see is a missile or a bomber heading their way, and they will respond to what they perceive as a first strike. That's why the whole "we'll strike back but only with conventional weapons" thing is a red herring.
    The optimistic theory is that if NATO, say, wipes out the Black Sea Fleet in response to a tac nuke strike on Lvov, then Putin can sell that as a "win" to his people (who really don't want to be melted)

    "Hey, we took on all of NATO and got a draw, that's a win", kind of thing. Honour is maintained

    But I can see it going horribly wrong, as you say, it is fantastically easy for it all to go wrong

    Of course, Putin may not yet do this, or he may be taken out (please God), but as things stand I'd say the chances of him doing something horribly dangerous with WMD (probably nukes, but not necessarily) are now about 61.4%
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Leon said:

    Leon:

    Right on Covid
    Right on Lab Leak
    Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE
    Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
    Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
    Right on What3Words taking over mapping
    Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
    Right on Woke (but unproven)
    Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird

    Also: unfortunately vaporised

    Self righteous?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon:

    Right on Covid
    Right on Lab Leak
    Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE
    Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
    Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
    Right on What3Words taking over mapping
    Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
    Right on Woke (but unproven)
    Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird

    Also: unfortunately vaporised

    Right pillock, a lot.
    For sure. Totes pillockosity

    But I have made these calls, and I was right. I forgive you all, because you are less intelligent, as I may have mentioned passim
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon:

    Right on Covid
    Right on Lab Leak
    Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE
    Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
    Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
    Right on What3Words taking over mapping
    Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
    Right on Woke (but unproven)
    Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird

    Also: unfortunately vaporised

    Right pillock, a lot.
    For sure. Totes pillockosity

    But I have made these calls, and I was right. I forgive you all, because you are less intelligent, as I may have mentioned passim
    Can we have the other side of the ledger: the calls you made that were wrong. You know, just for comparison :smile:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon:

    Right on Covid
    Right on Lab Leak
    Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE
    Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
    Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
    Right on What3Words taking over mapping
    Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
    Right on Woke (but unproven)
    Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird

    Also: unfortunately vaporised

    Right pillock, a lot.
    For sure. Totes pillockosity

    But I have made these calls, and I was right. I forgive you all, because you are less intelligent, as I may have mentioned passim
    Can we have the other side of the ledger: the calls you made that were wrong. You know, just for comparison :smile:
    Honestly can't think of a big one

    Maybe sports on a more trivial level, especially if England/UK are involved. I tend towards over-pessimism as a hedge against disappointment
  • kinabalu said:

    If Kwarteng had done exactly the same budget but without the 45p abolition, he could have put all the focus on lowering the basic rate as a 'thank you' to the people who kept the country going during the lockdowns. Even if the market reaction had been the same, it wouldn't have been as politically damaging.

    Yes that has given Labour the knife to twist. "And for what?" etc.

    He looked so pleased with himself too when he announced it.
    The conversations I've overheard from people who wouldn't normally discuss politics have all focused on that. I don't think people are even aware of the basic rate cut.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.



    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
    "what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes"?

    MAD.

    They cross that line then Russia is over. It is a nuclear wasteland. As will be europe and america.

    We can only hope the game theory holds when humans are involved and enough sane people will pull Putin away from suicide.

    Easily the most dangerous few weeks ahead in my lifetime.


    Agree.

    My point was, that a conventional strike on a Russian military base looks a whole lot like a nuclear strike from the perspective of a radar. All Russia is going to see is a missile or a bomber heading their way, and they will respond to what they perceive as a first strike. That's why the whole "we'll strike back but only with conventional weapons" thing is a red herring.
    The optimistic theory is that if NATO, say, wipes out the Black Sea Fleet in response to a tac nuke strike on Lvov, then Putin can sell that as a "win" to his people (who really don't want to be melted)

    "Hey, we took on all of NATO and got a draw, that's a win", kind of thing. Honour is maintained

    But I can see it going horribly wrong, as you say, it is fantastically easy for it all to go wrong

    Of course, Putin may not yet do this, or he may be taken out (please God), but as things stand I'd say the chances of him doing something horribly dangerous with WMD (probably nukes, but not necessarily) are now about 61.4%
    Agree that it might not be nukes.

    Imagine if he uses chemical weapons and we all actually breathe a sigh of relief because it's *only* a bit of novichok in the air around southern Kharkiv.

    The difficulty is how the west responds. Any direct attack is an escalation that leads us right back to an escalation that leads to nukes.

    Dark times. Eat drink and be merry, for tomorrow...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.



    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
    "what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes"?

    MAD.

    They cross that line then Russia is over. It is a nuclear wasteland. As will be europe and america.

    We can only hope the game theory holds when humans are involved and enough sane people will pull Putin away from suicide.

    Easily the most dangerous few weeks ahead in my lifetime.


    Agree.

    My point was, that a conventional strike on a Russian military base looks a whole lot like a nuclear strike from the perspective of a radar. All Russia is going to see is a missile or a bomber heading their way, and they will respond to what they perceive as a first strike. That's why the whole "we'll strike back but only with conventional weapons" thing is a red herring.
    The optimistic theory is that if NATO, say, wipes out the Black Sea Fleet in response to a tac nuke strike on Lvov, then Putin can sell that as a "win" to his people (who really don't want to be melted)

    "Hey, we took on all of NATO and got a draw, that's a win", kind of thing. Honour is maintained

    But I can see it going horribly wrong, as you say, it is fantastically easy for it all to go wrong

    Of course, Putin may not yet do this, or he may be taken out (please God), but as things stand I'd say the chances of him doing something horribly dangerous with WMD (probably nukes, but not necessarily) are now about 61.4%
    I think tactical nukes, like chemical weapons are likely to not influence the battle, but would cause massive destruction. Massacres of civilians that you have come to liberate is not a great look, and clearly shows how comprehensively Russia has been defeated on the conventional battlefield.

    Incidentally, it looks as if Lyman is now completely surrounded.
  • I'm starting to wonder if OGH's "Tory polling lead in September" bet is going to pay off.

    Equally, I bet on Truss making it to Tory conference 2023. And I have to admit I'm a lot less than confident... maybe she'll make it to 2022, just.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.



    There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.

    I diagnose Brexit. It delivered the party - and sadly the country - into the hands of charlatans and lightweights. That will soon change but an awful lot of damage has been done. To the economy, to our society, to our politics, to standards in public life.

    Interestingly, it looks like the original consensus view that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party will - after a brief interregnum where it seemed that Labour would bear the brunt - come to pass.
    Who cares. Brexit is done, and it shall not be undone.

    Just rejoice in that news.
    Yes I think it has reached that level now. The best one can say about it is that it just is.
    But that is all I wanted. For it to just BE. For us to govern ourselves.

    Do you still not understand this, or are you being deliberately obtuse?
    I understand there are no benefits, only unbenefits, and that you realize this too, and are thus reduced to saying you wanted it "just because", and that its best and only feature now it's happened is that it has happened.
  • New 50p


  • Ironically, a hot war with Russia might “save” Truss.

    Dark times.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056
    Ynysybwl (Rhondda Cynon Taf) council by-election result:

    PC: 59.0% (+3.5)
    LAB: 33.4% (-1.2)
    CON: 4.6% (+4.6)
    GWLAD: 1.9% (-8.0)
    GRN: 1.1% (+1.1)

    Votes cast: 737

    Plaid Cymru HOLD.

    (GWLAD are centre right welsh nationalists, apparently. Anyone heard of them?)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056

    New 50p


    The side view is rather flattering for ol’ big ears.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited September 2022

    Ironically, a hot war with Russia might “save” Truss.

    Dark times.

    Well if if we go to nuclear war with Russia talk about the general election will be redundant, instead we should be preparing our final prayers ahead of the day of judgement and Truss will be our last PM, if anyone survives they will be focused on living day to day.

    Hopefully though we will just see an impasse at the Donbass and things will gradually cool down
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    carnforth said:

    Ynysybwl (Rhondda Cynon Taf) council by-election result:

    PC: 59.0% (+3.5)
    LAB: 33.4% (-1.2)
    CON: 4.6% (+4.6)
    GWLAD: 1.9% (-8.0)
    GRN: 1.1% (+1.1)

    Votes cast: 737

    Plaid Cymru HOLD.

    (GWLAD are centre right welsh nationalists, apparently. Anyone heard of them?)

    Yeah they stand in a fair few, theyve got one county councillor on Ceredigion council
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    "Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with Britain's spending watchdog tomorrow as she attempts to dampen market panic after her tax-cutting 'mini-Budget' caused the Pound to tumble to its all-time low, fuelled fears of rocketing mortgage bills and drove up the costs of government borrowing."

    Prediction.

    All of this becomes irrelevant next week when Putin deploys battlefield nukes and the west has to work out how to respond.

    Truss and co in charge of the economy is frightening enough. But it's worth remembering this shower of shit are also in charge of what is, effectively, our wartime response to Russia.

    F***.
    I mean, if we finish up in a nuclear conflict with Russia (WW3 essentially) normal politics will be suspended and we'll probably be in "national government" time for the first time since 1945?
    Highly likely.

    But the first stage wont be nuclear conflict imho. Say Putin does use the "doctrine" excuse to use a tactical nuke or two on the frontline. The US response will be to blow the feck out of various RU military installations using conventional I reckon. It will be shock and awe and will hit "chain of command" in order to make these useful idiots think again about a coup to save their necks.

    Kalingrad looks extremely vulnerable.

    But to be honest I think Putin goes chemical first. Same fear factor for ordinary ukr people but less of a crossing of international (read chinese) taboo line potentially.

    But I am just thinking out aloud.



    If the US uses conventional means to strike Russian territory, what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes?

    Let's face it, if Russian radar spots American cruise missiles or bombers flying into its territory, is it really going to say "well, these Americans might only be carrying conventional payloads, better hold off on the whole big red button thing".

    Any western strike on Russia is going to trigger a nuclear response.

    The best we could do is some sort of sabre rattling far away from an inhabited zone, like a missile strike that takes out the Crimean bridge.
    "what's to stop Russia launching strategic nukes"?

    MAD.

    They cross that line then Russia is over. It is a nuclear wasteland. As will be europe and america.

    We can only hope the game theory holds when humans are involved and enough sane people will pull Putin away from suicide.

    Easily the most dangerous few weeks ahead in my lifetime.


    Agree.

    My point was, that a conventional strike on a Russian military base looks a whole lot like a nuclear strike from the perspective of a radar. All Russia is going to see is a missile or a bomber heading their way, and they will respond to what they perceive as a first strike. That's why the whole "we'll strike back but only with conventional weapons" thing is a red herring.
    The optimistic theory is that if NATO, say, wipes out the Black Sea Fleet in response to a tac nuke strike on Lvov, then Putin can sell that as a "win" to his people (who really don't want to be melted)

    "Hey, we took on all of NATO and got a draw, that's a win", kind of thing. Honour is maintained

    But I can see it going horribly wrong, as you say, it is fantastically easy for it all to go wrong

    Of course, Putin may not yet do this, or he may be taken out (please God), but as things stand I'd say the chances of him doing something horribly dangerous with WMD (probably nukes, but not necessarily) are now about 61.4%
    Agree that it might not be nukes.

    Imagine if he uses chemical weapons and we all actually breathe a sigh of relief because it's *only* a bit of novichok in the air around southern Kharkiv.

    The difficulty is how the west responds. Any direct attack is an escalation that leads us right back to an escalation that leads to nukes.

    Dark times. Eat drink and be merry, for tomorrow...
    There is an interesting debate about whether a nuke explosion in the air, a NEMPS taking out ye internets, counts as "a nuke"

    And what if he simply shells with intensity the Zap NPP? Does that count? Personally I reckon this is unlikely. Too unstable and unpredictable. Fall out

    If I had to put folding money on one thing he would do it is a small nuclear device on a strategically meaningless part of Ukraine, maybe even something he can claim as a false flag. But enough to sow intense fear

    Some PB-er, sorry I forget who (possibly you?) mentioned earlier the panic that will overtake the West as soon as Putin Goes Nuke. This is so very true. The mayhem will be indescribable. Major cities will roil in fear and loathing. Stock markets will plunge in despair. Currencies will dive. Armies will mobilise. We will see riots and carnage. And that is after 1 single tactical nuke

    And then the West will blink and give Putin what he wants. A large chunk of Ukraine

    So, if I was Vlad Putin, facing a terrible humiliating defeat in Ukraine, this is what I would do. One small nuke. And let the subsequent chaos win the day: let it all unfurl



  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Labour hold in Oxford
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Hinksey Park (Oxford) council by-election result:

    LAB: 51.3% (-4.7)
    GRN: 19.5% (+5.9)
    IND: 17.3% (+3.2)
    LDEM: 7.6% (-3.2)
    CON: 3.8% (-1.8)
    TUSC: 0.5% (+0.5)
  • New 50p

    How much is it worth in old money?
  • Very comfortable hold for Labour on Oxford City Council: http://twitter.com/OxfordClarion/status/1575623762359320578
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056
    edited September 2022

    carnforth said:

    Ynysybwl (Rhondda Cynon Taf) council by-election result:

    PC: 59.0% (+3.5)
    LAB: 33.4% (-1.2)
    CON: 4.6% (+4.6)
    GWLAD: 1.9% (-8.0)
    GRN: 1.1% (+1.1)

    Votes cast: 737

    Plaid Cymru HOLD.

    (GWLAD are centre right welsh nationalists, apparently. Anyone heard of them?)

    Yeah they stand in a fair few, theyve got one county councillor on Ceredigion council
    Upon further investigation, it seems it started in opposition to PC standing down in some constituencies as part of an anti-brexit pact.
  • Edwinstowe & Clipstone (Newark & Sherwood) By-Election Result: LAB: 59.8% (+10.0) CON: 40.2% (-10.0) Labour GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ GE2019.

    ROFL
  • IT HAS HAPPENED! TOLD YOU!

    20 point lead!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited September 2022
    I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.

    A kind of Korean “solution”.

    Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Obviously it was not actually the cause of the internal problems the Tories have, but I do like that the sheer arrogance and selfishness of Paterson, and the arrogance of Boris in seeking to defend him, marks the moment things began to truly turn.



    There are problems facing the country the Tories would have found challenging anyway. But their biggest problems have all been self inflicted.

    I diagnose Brexit. It delivered the party - and sadly the country - into the hands of charlatans and lightweights. That will soon change but an awful lot of damage has been done. To the economy, to our society, to our politics, to standards in public life.

    Interestingly, it looks like the original consensus view that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party will - after a brief interregnum where it seemed that Labour would bear the brunt - come to pass.
    Who cares. Brexit is done, and it shall not be undone.

    Just rejoice in that news.
    Yes I think it has reached that level now. The best one can say about it is that it just is.
    But that is all I wanted. For it to just BE. For us to govern ourselves.

    Do you still not understand this, or are you being deliberately obtuse?
    I understand there are no benefits, only unbenefits, and that you realize this too, and are thus reduced to saying you wanted it "just because", and that its best and only feature now it's happened is that it has happened.
    I believe I always said it is like having a baby. Like that smart guy on the Spectator. Forget his name

    When you deliberately have a baby then you of course have aspirations: it will be a famous ballet dancer, a Hollywood star, a great doctor, a person better than me! - and you also have grave doubts: it will be deaf, or blind, a harlequin baby, a midget, a drunk like me, oh God no

    In the end all you want - if you want it - is the baby. And so it is

    You know, I have finally reached the melancholy conclusion that you are too intellectually shrivelled and mediocre to understand this. I am arguing with a retired accountant who plays golf, after all. So it is pointless

    Ergo, let us fold the tents of debate and Cry Adieu
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Ynysybwl (Rhondda Cynon Taf) council by-election result:

    PC: 59.0% (+3.5)
    LAB: 33.4% (-1.2)
    CON: 4.6% (+4.6)
    GWLAD: 1.9% (-8.0)
    GRN: 1.1% (+1.1)

    Votes cast: 737

    Plaid Cymru HOLD.

    (GWLAD are centre right welsh nationalists, apparently. Anyone heard of them?)

    Yeah they stand in a fair few, theyve got one county councillor on Ceredigion council
    Upon further investigation, it seems it started in opposition to PC standing down in some constituencies as part of an anti-brexit pact.
    They are apparently thought of as a Welsh kipper party
  • This wonderful, wonderful poll looks like an outlier.

    On the other hand, we know “events” usually take a week or so to sink in, so it could possibly even flatter Tory numbers.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056
    edited September 2022

    I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.

    A kind of Korean “solution”.

    Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.

    You think that, if Putin gets his oblasts, and keeps his land-bridge to Crimea, he would tolerate US/NATO bases in rump-of-ukraine?
  • I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.

    A kind of Korean “solution”.

    Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.

    How do you get from Putin going "all in" to that outcome? If there is a strong conventional response from NATO along the lines of sinking the Black Sea Fleet, what steps come next that end with Ukraine ceding the annexed oblasts?
  • carnforth said:

    I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.

    A kind of Korean “solution”.

    Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.

    You think that, if Putin gets his oblasts, and keeps his land-bridge to Crimea, he would tolerate US/NATO bases in rump-of-ukraine?
    Well, a direct attack on US/NATO would be insane, and strategically non-useful.

    He can eminently sell annexation of south eastern Ukraine as a win.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    This wonderful, wonderful poll looks like an outlier.

    On the other hand, we know “events” usually take a week or so to sink in, so it could possibly even flatter Tory numbers.

    Tonights by election votes are in line more with the survation, redfield polls. The Tory vote (so far) is down but not cratering
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Must be great being an SKS fan with Truss as PM. He could enter masterchef and win with his pot noodle
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056
    edited September 2022

    carnforth said:

    I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.

    A kind of Korean “solution”.

    Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.

    You think that, if Putin gets his oblasts, and keeps his land-bridge to Crimea, he would tolerate US/NATO bases in rump-of-ukraine?
    Well, a direct attack on US/NATO would be insane, and strategically non-useful.

    He can eminently sell annexation of south eastern Ukraine as a win.

    If it does work, would he be tempted to do it in belarus too?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056

    This wonderful, wonderful poll looks like an outlier.

    On the other hand, we know “events” usually take a week or so to sink in, so it could possibly even flatter Tory numbers.

    Tonights by election votes are in line more with the survation, redfield polls. The Tory vote (so far) is down but not cratering
    The 33-lead poll had 37% of 2019 tory voters voting tory, and 17% voting labour. Maybe 5% other switchers. So 41% claiming they would not vote. Not very likely. Still an awful poll, though.
  • I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.

    A kind of Korean “solution”.

    Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.

    How do you get from Putin going "all in" to that outcome? If there is a strong conventional response from NATO along the lines of sinking the Black Sea Fleet, what steps come next that end with Ukraine ceding the annexed oblasts?
    Putin is surely gambling that US/NATO do not want a nuclear confrontation and that any retaliation is limited.

    I haven’t defined “all-in” but essentially something which delivers terrifying menace but returns a de-escalatable response from NATO.

    I mean, I hope I’m wrong and Putin pussies out, or better yet, is removed from power.
This discussion has been closed.