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Truss isn’t working – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 9 in General
Truss isn’t working – politicalbetting.com

Fucking hell. pic.twitter.com/f4cLqoYsHv

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    OUTLIER!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    The next election is lost, question is when and how the Tories can get the best result they can.

    I expect things will only get worse.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,986

    OUTLIER!

    Probably, unless we expect some 33%+ leads coming up.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    OUTLIER!

    Yep but "Truss isn't working" is definitely a Labour campaign poster as it works on so many levels
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    I said she would be an utter disaster.

    They need to use conference week to organize the ending of her leadership or the tories are facing wipe out.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    edited September 29
    Don't worry! The Conservatives are sure to get a post-conference bounce! A happy, harmonious, smiling Tory Party at ease with itself will make for great headlines next week!
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    Tories have lost the next GE. They need to focus now on damage limitation and doing what's best for the country in the short term. Happily, both of those objectives align by getting rid of Truss.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    I said she would be an utter disaster.

    They need to use conference week to organize the ending of her leadership or the tories are facing wipe out.

    The tories are facing wipeout anyway.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Of course the polls are going to be dire for the Tories this side of Christmas.

    Central to Liz Truss’s pitch.

    Take on the dragons. Make the difficult policy choices. Be damned with the immediate term popularity contests. Those are for next year, as policy begins to pay off.


    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1575526164957110272
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    As long as the Cons are on 33 things aren't too bad.

    Oh, not that 33!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    eek said:

    OUTLIER!

    Yep but "Truss isn't working" is definitely a Labour campaign poster as it works on so many levels
    The image to go with it might be a bit "EEEEWWWWW!" though.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,205
    I’m interested in the 29% who think Sunak would have done…. Worse.

    Hmmmmm. That’s a hard target to beat….
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    eek said:

    OUTLIER!

    Yep but "Truss isn't working" is definitely a Labour campaign poster as it works on so many levels
    She's finished now. BBB!

    (Bring back Boris)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    Scott_xP said:

    Of course the polls are going to be dire for the Tories this side of Christmas.

    Central to Liz Truss’s pitch.

    Take on the dragons. Make the difficult policy choices. Be damned with the immediate term popularity contests. Those are for next year, as policy begins to pay off.


    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1575526164957110272

    lols....sure Tom, sure.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    I said she would be an utter disaster.

    They need to use conference week to organize the ending of her leadership or the tories are facing wipe out.

    Got to give Truss some recognition though.

    While a lot of us did think she would be a disaster we all expected it to take 6-12 months not less than a month.

    Heck if it wasn't for the Queen dying we could easily have seen these figures a fortnight ago within 12 days of her becoming PM...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    12m
    Some fun facts about that YouGov poll.

    Just 37% of Tory 2019 voters say they'll vote for them next time. A record 17% say they'll vote Labour.

    If the poll was the actual election result the only three Tory MPs left would be Rebecca Harris, Giles Watling and John Whittingdale.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,978
    The biggest poll lead for Blair before the 1997 election was 31%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633
    edited September 29
    My post at 0723 this morning now looks rather over cautious:
    Foxy said:

    Cameron quits in disgrace. Tory MPs select May.

    Tory MPs quickly realise May was a bad choice. Bad person. Bad policies. They remove May.
    Tory MPs and then members select Boris.

    Within a few years Tory MPs realise Boris was a bad choice. Bad person. Bad policies. They remove Boris.

    Tory MPs choose Rishi but not decisively and members choose Truss. Within a few days of actual policies being enacted, Tory MPs realise Truss is a bad choice. Bad person. Bad policies.

    There is a common thread. The problem isn't May. Or Johnson. Or Truss. The problem is the Conservative Party. It can no longer be trussted to chose leaders and thus Prime Ministers. Because time after time after time they select from their narrow pool and they chose mental.

    If there was ever a red flag that a party needed time out of office to rethink who it is and what it is supposed to be doing, it is this now.

    The problem with the Conservative Party is that it has been taken over by ideologues of both Libertarianism and Brexit, with no place for One Nation Conservatives.

    Truss ain't done yet. The next step is her "supply side reforms" which consist of ripping up environmental, social and planning protections to allow her rapacious spiv friends to externalise all the costs and consequences of their greed onto other people, while trousered the profits. She sees this as the solution to the countries problem.

    Shortly the Tories will be polling at Scottish levels in England too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Must be Labour's best conference week by a country mile since the late 1990s.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    He's been in town (Darlo) today as they announce the design and confirm the location for the Treasury North Campus
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    I am ordering popcorn and no one is going to stop me! LOL
  • Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    Yep, and almost bound to make things worse for the party.

    Well, I did warn 'em.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882

    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    I am ordering popcorn and no one is going to stop me! LOL
    Oh God. She will give a speech
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    Scott_xP said:
    Exact survey start / end dates are going to be important piecing this together.
  • @MISTY

    That's the second time this week you've smeared a pollster's integrity.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410
    I am still laughing.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    Less than 18 months since Hartlepool when Boris stood like a political Hercules. Has there ever been such a rapid political turnaround?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Thoughts and prayers for novara media and Owen Jones.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Liz, when you said you were prepared to be unpopular....did you mean "ending the Party" bad?

    What other whizzo wheezes have you still got to deliver?

    I mean, did you do ANY focus group testing of this stuff? If not - WHY???? If so - YOU STILL WENT AHEAD?????

    You're fired.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882

    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    Yep, and almost bound to make things worse for the party.

    Well, I did warn 'em.
    It's going to be like a wedding where everyone has discovered the bride has been exuberantly shagging the best man for several months, and only the groom is unaware
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,410

    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    I am ordering popcorn and no one is going to stop me! LOL
    Buy it now, that stuff will be like bog roll in March 2020 before you know it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    Pro_Rata said:
    Horse got it way wrong, he was demanding a mere 20 point lead. 33% under the hapless Starmer, BJO just imagine what the lead would have been under Corbyn?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    The inside of @contrarian 's head must be a seriously weird place.

    Although I note the post that prompted that comment has disappeared.

    What was it Tom Baker said: 'The very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common. Instead of changing their views to fit reality, they change reality to fit their views.'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    AlistairM said:

    Less than 18 months since Hartlepool when Boris stood like a political Hercules. Has there ever been such a rapid political turnaround?

    If he hadn't lied about parties then quite possibly none of this would be happening.

    How history turns can be amazing at times.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    edited September 29
    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    Thoughts and prayers for novara media and Owen Jones.

    Oi! What about our own @bigjohnowls ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    I am ordering popcorn and no one is going to stop me! LOL
    Oh God. She will give a speech
    Lefty polling companies are trying to do us down.

    It.Is.A.Disgace.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Here’s a story about the little-known Tory MPs’ WhatsApp group called the Treasury Support Group

    Usually it’s quite, um, supportive.

    Today Kwasi Kwarteng used it to plead with colleagues for their support after market turmoil and calls for his head.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/under-fire-kwarteng-tries-to-calm-uk-tories-with-vow-to-listen
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633

    Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    12m
    Some fun facts about that YouGov poll.

    Just 37% of Tory 2019 voters say they'll vote for them next time. A record 17% say they'll vote Labour.

    If the poll was the actual election result the only three Tory MPs left would be Rebecca Harris, Giles Watling and John Whittingdale.

    Who would get to be leader? Could be important for next Tory leader market 🤔
  • Just a reminder, I've got another 10 days of my holiday left.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price tonight...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    What was @Misty banned for?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    I’m looking forward to the part of the Truss speech where she espouses the Tories record on the economy and gives the country a much needed laugh in these dark times .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,185
    So, for how long has Putin been planning to deploy deep-state Truss?

    Guy is an evil genius.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    The letters falling off behind May was fun. This will be fun-ereal.

    BTW, who is the current deputy leader if she did have a nervous breakdown?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    With Labour 33 points ahead, the IEA become the left's most successful think tank.
    https://twitter.com/cthomasippr/status/1575528880680538112
  • Fear not, Liz has a plan. She needs a Falklands moment, so trade war with the EU it is.

    (And I'm afraid this isn't even in jest).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,542
    Oh my.

    I'm sure Blair would have been on >75% ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    The letters falling off behind May was fun. This will be fun-ereal.

    BTW, who is the current deputy leader if she did have a nervous breakdown?
    Therese Coffey.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    edited September 29

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    rcs1000 said:

    I find it curious that the same posters who decry Biden's decline into imbecility, are the same ones who have him playing 4D chess with a daring piece of subterfuge to ensure Germany's resolve is not weakened.

    its not Biden though its the people behind him like Victoria Nuland....
  • ydoethur said:

    Thoughts and prayers for novara media and Owen Jones.

    Oi! What about our own @bigjohnowls ?
    I nearly headlined this piece with 'A decent Labour leader would be 40 points ahead.'
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    AlistairM said:

    Less than 18 months since Hartlepool when Boris stood like a political Hercules. Has there ever been such a rapid political turnaround?

    Here's an appropriate Shagmobile for the grand return, complete with inscription on the side:

    https://jamesstewart.photoshelter.com/image/I00007WOzU.n9P.U
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 122
    Does anybody know the % the Tories got in 1997, for me that is their floor, cannot see them getting below that, they had everyone against them then, even the murdoch press.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633
    I suspect my local LDs may hold Logan Ward in Market Harborough tonight...

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,594
    What a banter poll :D
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882

    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    The letters falling off behind May was fun. This will be fun-ereal.

    BTW, who is the current deputy leader if she did have a nervous breakdown?
    Therese Coffey?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    Scott_xP said:

    Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price tonight...

    Do you mind me asking . Who is this Tissue Price ? I’ve seen it mentioned a few times .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862
    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    They don't deserve saving.

    If Tory MPs had removed Boris Johnson six months earlier as they should have done Sunak would now be PM and this wouldn't be happening.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,978
    mickydroy said:

    Does anybody know the % the Tories got in 1997, for me that is their floor, cannot see them getting below that, they had everyone against them then, even the murdoch press.

    Labour 43.2%
    Conservative 30.7%
    Lib Dem 16.8%
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    edited September 29
    mickydroy said:

    Does anybody know the % the Tories got in 1997, for me that is their floor, cannot see them getting below that, they had everyone against them then, even the murdoch press.

    30.7%; Wiki is our friend. *But* no Kippers/Reform then.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,185
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    I am ordering popcorn and no one is going to stop me! LOL
    Oh God. She will give a speech
    She thinks she's right and she's Thatchers equal. That's the tragedy.

    Thatcher was a brighter and better politician than 100 Liz Trusses.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price tonight...

    Do you mind me asking . Who is this Tissue Price ? I’ve seen it mentioned a few times .
    Aaron Bell MP. A respected poster here before his election
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    Scott_xP said:

    Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price tonight...

    Which of the 2 MPs would he back (as a member) for LOTO?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    4m
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead at 19 points in results for The Daily Mirror.
    Con 29% (-2)
    Lab 48% (+4)
    Lib Dem 9% (-3)
    Other 14% (+1)
    Fieldwork: 27 - 29 September 2022
    Sample: 1,613 GB adults
    (Changes from 22 - 25 September 2022)

    That gives us


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,185
    Pro_Rata said:
    He'll be too busy "celebrating".

    Possibly all night.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Would either of them want to take the risk? Same goes for Wallace. The only candidate with nothing to lose because he is already a big winner (and then a loser- because they changed the rules) is Johnson.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,240
    rcs1000 said:

    I find it curious that the same posters who decry Biden's decline into imbecility, are the same ones who have him playing 4D chess with a daring piece of subterfuge to ensure Germany's resolve is not weakened.

    It's Cognitive Dissonance!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099

    What was @Misty banned for?

    Apparently saying that polling company X was dodgy. I imagine cos he didn't like the result.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    The reason this is an extinction level event is that Truss and Kwarteng went missing for several days. If they did a media tour in the immediate aftermath of the 'mini budget', even with the uninspiring reasons they rolled out today, things would be a bit better for them. They rolled this out and weren't around to defend it. The tories either remove them now or they may be completely finished as a political party.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,468
    It's fascinating the drop in the LD vote:

    Clearly there is an increasing desire to get rid of the Conservative Party and that is consolidating votes with Labour.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Truss has succeeded in presenting herself as different to the previous administration.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    The Government must scrap 45p, take responsibility for the link between last Friday & the impact on peoples mortgages & make clear that it will do everything possible to stabilise markets & protect public services
    https://twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1575530631613882371
  • The Truss isn’t working, the Tory party has ruptured and it’s internal organs are hanging out.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493

    Fear not, Liz has a plan. She needs a Falklands moment, so trade war with the EU it is.

    (And I'm afraid this isn't even in jest).

    Capital punishment for nonses is my expected strategy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    edited September 29

    Fear not, Liz has a plan. She needs a Falklands moment, so trade war with the EU it is.

    (And I'm afraid this isn't even in jest).

    Nor would it be a Falklands moment.

    Right now she's probably got to hope Putin launches a nuke - that'll be quite distracting.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    How can she stand up and give a speech?
    Its over. This isnt just an 'it didnt work out', its '12.5% swing from an already big deficit in a week'
    Gone before conference
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,862

    The Truss isn’t working, the Tory party has ruptured and it’s internal organs are hanging out.

    Are you saying they're living intestine times?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I find it curious that the same posters who decry Biden's decline into imbecility, are the same ones who have him playing 4D chess with a daring piece of subterfuge to ensure Germany's resolve is not weakened.

    It's Cognitive Dissonance!
    Or, Biden has advisors. I mean, I always presumed American presidents have advisors? But I could be wrong
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,468
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price tonight...

    Do you mind me asking . Who is this Tissue Price ? I’ve seen it mentioned a few times .
    He was a poster who went on to be a Red Wall Conservative MP.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,542
    mickydroy said:

    Does anybody know the % the Tories got in 1997, for me that is their floor, cannot see them getting below that, they had everyone against them then, even the murdoch press.

    30.7% is the figure on Wikipedia. Most likely that's across the UK, rather than GB.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    mickydroy said:

    Does anybody know the % the Tories got in 1997, for me that is their floor, cannot see them getting below that, they had everyone against them then, even the murdoch press.

    31%
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    edited September 29
    Scott_xP said:

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price tonight...

    Do you mind me asking . Who is this Tissue Price ? I’ve seen it mentioned a few times .
    Aaron Bell MP. A respected poster here before his election
    Slightly unfortunate wording, if unintentional ...he still is, respected I mean!
  • See the likes of Max, Casino Royale, and myself all voting Labour for the first time in a general election turns out we are in touch with the country.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    edited September 29
    Those who put a quid or two on Wallace and/or Sunak as next PM/leader feeling slightly smug. :smile:

    Until they look at what has happened to the rest of their assets
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    Scott_xP said:

    The Government must scrap 45p, take responsibility for the link between last Friday & the impact on peoples mortgages & make clear that it will do everything possible to stabilise markets & protect public services
    https://twitter.com/JulianSmithUK/status/1575530631613882371

    And Jack the Ripper must establish a refuge for vulnerable sex workers.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    edited September 29
    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Gove, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    My other wait is for @StuartDickson to delve into the subsamples and conclude Labour have made literally no progress in Scotland.

    Oh look, the SNP have 51 seats on EC.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,582
    Kwasi Kwarteng says it’s ‘premature’ to say if benefits will rise in line with inflation but doubles down on mini-budget – live

    Got to pay for millionaire tax breaks somehow i suppose
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    What was the line?

    We have abandoned the voters that gave us an 80 seat majority to chase the 7 libertarians in the country...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,582
    Anyone know what price Lazarus of Bethany is for next Tory PM?
This discussion has been closed.