Here's a stray thought: Perhaps a few opposition Western politicians should start to speculate about territorial losses -- for Putin.
For example, in the US, Texas Senator Ted Cruz might point to the large number of men leaving Russia, and suggest a place for them. Perhaps St. Petersburg should become a "free city", he could suggest. Subject, of course to an internationally-supervised referendum.
(You want opposition politicians doing this, because that keeps it from looking like a government trial balloon,but still brings up the issue.)
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I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.
A kind of Korean “solution”.
Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.
You think that, if Putin gets his oblasts, and keeps his land-bridge to Crimea, he would tolerate US/NATO bases in rump-of-ukraine?
Well, a direct attack on US/NATO would be insane, and strategically non-useful.
He can eminently sell annexation of south eastern Ukraine as a win.
I just don't see that happening. Ukraine will continue to fight and take back territory.
These are not division sized Ukranian armoured forces, they are dispersed mobile tactical teams. Nukes are far too blunt against them.
Just to add on Nostradamus, I always find it fascinaing that one of his predictions for our specific period was as specific as this :
"The false message about the rigged election, to run through the city stopping the broken pact; voices bought, chapel stained with blood, the empire contracted to another one."
Let's hope he was right then that next period will bring better times after a bad one, as that means we're all still here.
I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.
A kind of Korean “solution”.
Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.
How do you get from Putin going "all in" to that outcome? If there is a strong conventional response from NATO along the lines of sinking the Black Sea Fleet, what steps come next that end with Ukraine ceding the annexed oblasts?
We will blink. And we will. We do not want to die for Kyiv. Do you? Do you want to see humanity essentially ended because a mad dog Russian fuck wants to rule Kharkiv and we don't approve?
We will take out the fleet (or whatever) as a warning, but then we will cease to arm Ukraine and we will demand that Zelensky seeks peace, by ceding the oblasts
This is horrible, but it is probably the BEST outcome conceivable for humanity if Putin Goes Rogue. He is Hitler with nukes. This was always the nightmare
Obviously we need it, and I don't know how long this sort of thing should take, but it feels awfully quick to have the new coin head ready. The funeral was only last Monday.
Right on Covid Right on Lab Leak Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE Right on THE TRUSS DRESS Right on GPT3 heralding AGI Right on What3Words taking over mapping Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit Right on Woke (but unproven) Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird
Also: unfortunately vaporised
You forgot: Right Wing (very).
Being monomaniac and monotonous on subjects does not mean being right.
I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.
A kind of Korean “solution”.
Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.
You think that, if Putin gets his oblasts, and keeps his land-bridge to Crimea, he would tolerate US/NATO bases in rump-of-ukraine?
Well, a direct attack on US/NATO would be insane, and strategically non-useful.
He can eminently sell annexation of south eastern Ukraine as a win.
I just don't see that happening. Ukraine will continue to fight and take back territory.
These are not division sized Ukranian armoured forces, they are dispersed mobile tactical teams. Nukes are far too blunt against them.
If Russias missiles and fuses still work.
Hope so.
But while people talk about Ukraine being existentially committed versus Russia, there is also an imbalance (it seems to me) between the West’s willingness to resort to WMD against Russia, and Russia’s willingness to do so inside Ukraine.
I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.
A kind of Korean “solution”.
Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.
How do you get from Putin going "all in" to that outcome? If there is a strong conventional response from NATO along the lines of sinking the Black Sea Fleet, what steps come next that end with Ukraine ceding the annexed oblasts?
We will blink. And we will. We do not want to die for Kyiv. Do you? Do you want to see humanity essentially ended because a mad dog Russian fuck wants to rule Kharkiv and we don't approve?
We will take out the fleet (or whatever) as a warning, but then we will cease to arm Ukraine and we will demand that Zelensky seeks peace, by ceding the oblasts
This is horrible, but it is probably the BEST outcome conceivable for humanity if Putin Goes Rogue. He is Hitler with nukes. This was always the nightmare
On the contrary, the arms would pour into Ukraine, and no one will demand that Zelensky codes the oblasts.
I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.
A kind of Korean “solution”.
Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.
You think that, if Putin gets his oblasts, and keeps his land-bridge to Crimea, he would tolerate US/NATO bases in rump-of-ukraine?
Well, a direct attack on US/NATO would be insane, and strategically non-useful.
He can eminently sell annexation of south eastern Ukraine as a win.
If it does work, would he be tempted to do it in belarus too?
"Had a lot of discussions in Warsaw today. Everyone emphasizes that the next days will be decisive for Ukraine, Russia and the world. Many see the possibility of Russia escalating by using nuclear weapons and once again pulling Belarus into the war. All agree, Putin lost his mind."
"Yes, nuclear attack from #russia is likely. Yes, we are googling what to do in case of such an attack. No, #Ukraine will not continue fighting to exist. No, this is no reason to sit down and negotiate with the aggressor."
I am, indeed, persuaded by the theory that Putin goes “all-in”, and Ukraine is effectively forced to cede the annexed oblasts, while NATO establishes a heavily militarised border across rump Ukraine.
A kind of Korean “solution”.
Russia will be an international pariah, though, so while on paper Putin will enjoy a tactical “win”, it will simply deliver long term impoverishment and loss of great power status.
How do you get from Putin going "all in" to that outcome? If there is a strong conventional response from NATO along the lines of sinking the Black Sea Fleet, what steps come next that end with Ukraine ceding the annexed oblasts?
We will blink. And we will. We do not want to die for Kyiv. Do you? Do you want to see humanity essentially ended because a mad dog Russian fuck wants to rule Kharkiv and we don't approve?
We will take out the fleet (or whatever) as a warning, but then we will cease to arm Ukraine and we will demand that Zelensky seeks peace, by ceding the oblasts
This is horrible, but it is probably the BEST outcome conceivable for humanity if Putin Goes Rogue. He is Hitler with nukes. This was always the nightmare
On the contrary, the arms would pour into Ukraine, and no one will demand that Zelensky codes the oblasts.
"Politico: US asks China, India to convince Putin not to use nuclear weapons.
The. U.S. officials are urging countries of the Pacific region to put pressure on Putin and communicate to him that the use of nuclear weapons will have a harsh response, Politico reports."
That is the key question when considering Putins nuclear strategy.
I think it’s pretty likely China have let Putin know their red lines. If they have, nuclear weapons will be one of them.
I still think it’s fairly unlikely either Putin or NATO will use nuclear weapons in the short/medium term.
Perhaps 10%
Alarmingly high, but keep it in perspective.
Trouble is, I think there's a general suspicion that Putin has become insane (for whatever reason... possibly illness?) and is getting more irrational as time goes along.
So the normal calculations probably don't work... A mad man has hundreds of nuclear weapons... it is THE nightmare scenario as @Leon said.
Right on Covid Right on Lab Leak Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE Right on THE TRUSS DRESS Right on GPT3 heralding AGI Right on What3Words taking over mapping Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit Right on Woke (but unproven) Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird
Also: unfortunately vaporised
You forgot: Right Wing (very).
And a right silly twat, who is almost always wrong.
That is the key question when considering Putins nuclear strategy.
I think it’s pretty likely China have let Putin know their red lines. If they have, nuclear weapons will be one of them.
I still think it’s fairly unlikely either Putin or NATO will use nuclear weapons in the short/medium term.
Perhaps 10%
Alarmingly high, but keep it in perspective.
You need to place yourself in Putin's shoes
He has made a tremendous mistake: invading Ukraine. He thought it would be a 3 day sweep to victory, now he is in Vietnam times 100. Also, he might actually lose, and therefore be deposed, and be sodomised with a bayonet like Gaddafi
He has tried to mobilise the country with 1m troops but half the best men have fled and he is now feeding meat into a grinder. Ukraine is better armed and more motivated. With NATO behind it, His economy is in meltdown and someone (AMERICA) has just blown up his big pricey hope of cash: Nordstream2
He is facing calamity and death unless he changes the game. So. What do you do, if you are him?
Seriously. What do you do that isn't intense escalation? Retreat really is not an option
That is the key question when considering Putins nuclear strategy.
I think it’s pretty likely China have let Putin know their red lines. If they have, nuclear weapons will be one of them.
I still think it’s fairly unlikely either Putin or NATO will use nuclear weapons in the short/medium term.
Perhaps 10%
Alarmingly high, but keep it in perspective.
Trouble is, I think there's a general suspicion that Putin has become insane (for whatever reason... possibly illness?) and is getting more irrational as time goes along.
So the normal calculations probably don't work... A mad man has hundreds of nuclear weapons... it is THE nightmare scenario as @Leon said.
Full Tonto. How right Wallace was.
Though surely he gets bumped off before the end of the world?
You'd have to be even more insane than Putin to obey a launch order. He's just an old, ill looking mental case. What's in it for you?
I have my card records of my 3 Covid vaccination records in my married name but my passport is in my maiden name as I use this for pretty much all purposes.
I'm travelling to the US next month and the US requires proof of vaccination but in the name used in my travel documents. I assume a marriage certificate won't help.
Do I just ask my GP to change the name and, if so, how then do I get a vaccination record in that name in time for my travel. I have only just realised the issue and am leaving on 25th October.
Thanks in advance.
Have you asked the US embassy whether a marriage certificate would solve the problem?
I have emailed the CDC in the US.
But the conference organisers in the US have now told me that the US isn't checking Covid status anymore.
I will ask my GP to change the name so that I can at least access my Covid status in the App. The card records aren't even accurate - one has my d.o.b and NHS number but only my first name and middle name. The other has my name and surname but no d.o.b or NHS number. And the booster has neither just the name of the vaccine.
Still if we're all nuked by Vlad and rendered penniless by Liz I won't be travelling anywhere....
I reckoned the other night that if things didnt settle down by Christmas that the Conservatives wouldnt get near Labour again in this election cycle.
Update: Don't need to wait until Christmas, they won't.
All one can hope is that Conservative MPS dump on the mini budget at Westminster and seek to wipe it, or some of its provisions at least, out. Its the tax cuts that are the problem, the scale is insane.
Ukraine. Further to my post at start of the week regarding the battle around Lyman and an attempted encircling move by the Ukrainians, stories have it the encirclement is complete. The Russians dont seem able to break out and no sign of a relief attempt to create a corridor for a mass escape. No one quite knows how many Russians are in there but some have it in excess of 2000.
I have my card records of my 3 Covid vaccination records in my married name but my passport is in my maiden name as I use this for pretty much all purposes.
I'm travelling to the US next month and the US requires proof of vaccination but in the name used in my travel documents. I assume a marriage certificate won't help.
Do I just ask my GP to change the name and, if so, how then do I get a vaccination record in that name in time for my travel. I have only just realised the issue and am leaving on 25th October.
Thanks in advance.
Have you asked the US embassy whether a marriage certificate would solve the problem?
I have emailed the CDC in the US.
But the conference organisers in the US have now told me that the US isn't checking Covid status anymore.
I will ask my GP to change the name so that I can at least access my Covid status in the App. The card records aren't even accurate - one has my d.o.b and NHS number but only my first name and middle name. The other has my name and surname but no d.o.b or NHS number. And the booster has neither just the name of the vaccine.
Think they stopped checking whether someone has Covid before they travel in June, but I think you still have to prove your vaccination status unless something changed recently?
I wonder how difficult to be for the West to have Putin thrown out of a tall building.
One would hope the combined brains of the CIA. MI6, Mossad, the Bureau et al are working on this full tilt
If anyone in history needs taking out, it is Putin right now. Literally. At GMT 23:51 on the 29th September 2022 he is the biggest threat to human civilisation that humanity has ever faced. He is Hitler with nukes
LDs hold both Grappenhall seats in Warrington, figs to follow Argyll countrs tomorrow so thats it. Just one seat changed hands and the Tory vote was more resilient than expected given polling
I wonder how difficult to be for the West to have Putin thrown out of a tall building.
One would hope the combined brains of the CIA. MI6, Mossad, the Bureau et al are working on this full tilt
If anyone in history needs taking out, it is Putin right now. Literally. At GMT 23:51 on the 29th September 2022 he is the biggest threat to human civilisation that humanity has ever faced. He is Hitler with nukes
Hitler had absolute control of his government. Putin cannot make a speech when he wants to.
Anyway looking on the bright side Liz Truss has assured us several times today that after her intervention NO household will pay more than £2500 a year on energy bills. Wow! That is good news, I live in a six bedroom house and was already paying more than that last year...
Did she say who does pay for the freeze policy Pete?
No but she was very pleased with herself, so excited in fact that she made the error to which I have hinted.
Anyway young Rabbit, like my children your tax pounds will be paying for this measure and the 45% tax reduction that won't trouble me, for years to come. I thank you in advance because I will be long dead by the time my debt to you is settled.
You ain’t so dumb after all.
Just mischief.
Dumber than a box of rocks Rabbit, but still smarter than Truss and Kwarteng together.
Is it simply because the capture or killing of 2000 Russians is a big deal, or does it have larger strategic significance?
2000 sounds neither here nor there for Russia.
It's significance is that it says Russia is still LOSING, and losing badly, not winning
Some people don't seem to grasp this. The reason Putin might go postal is because he faces humiliation, not because he is thrilled by victory. He doesn't want to risk nuclear war, that is the act of a desperate man. But with every Ukrainian advance - even in the face of near-total Russian mobilisation - Putin grows more humiliated and more desperate
I wonder how difficult to be for the West to have Putin thrown out of a tall building.
I hope that thought is given to what happens if he is.
There's a massive element of being careful what you wish for with this. The next one isn't going to be a great guy, but the change could be in either direction. Might be Khrushchev... might be Beria.
Is it simply because the capture or killing of 2000 Russians is a big deal, or does it have larger strategic significance?
2000 sounds neither here nor there for Russia.
1. Take it out and the Ukrainians can free up forces engaged in the wide encircling movement to further offensives 2,. Its a major supply hub point so denying its use to Russia chokes Russian supply lines to other areas, meaning extended alternative routes and making it harder to maintain previous volumes of supply.
Is it simply because the capture or killing of 2000 Russians is a big deal, or does it have larger strategic significance?
2000 sounds neither here nor there for Russia.
1. Take it out and the Ukrainians can free up forces engaged in the wide encircling movement to further offensives 2,. Its a major supply hub point so denying its use to Russia chokes Russian supply lines to other areas, meaning extended alternative routes and making it harder to maintain previous volumes of supply.
Ok thanks. Hopefully the pocket “closes” tonight/tomorrow.
Reportedly there are calls for Russians Muslims to join a day of protest against the conscription operation
No idea if this is an official statement by some kind of authority but 6-7% of the population are Muslim and concentrated in a number of areas, so if this did ever take off, Putin is going to have a regional headache, in his own borders.
Reportedly there are calls for Russians Muslims to join a day of protest against the conscription operation
No idea if this is an official statement by some kind of authority but 6-7% of the population are Muslim and concentrated in a number of areas, so if this did ever take off, Putin is going to have a regional headache, in his own borders.
The regions of Russia have been just as oppressed by Moscow rule as Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics have, whether that is the Muslims, the Cossacks or the Far East.
Reportedly there are calls for Russians Muslims to join a day of protest against the conscription operation
No idea if this is an official statement by some kind of authority but 6-7% of the population are Muslim and concentrated in a number of areas, so if this did ever take off, Putin is going to have a regional headache, in his own borders.
The regions of Russia have been just as oppressed by Moscow rule as Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics have, whether that is the Muslims, the Cossacks or the Far East.
Doesnt mean they rise up en-masse on this issue. If they did, I'd suggest it would trigger a wider ripple of dissent amongst the population.
I have my card records of my 3 Covid vaccination records in my married name but my passport is in my maiden name as I use this for pretty much all purposes.
I'm travelling to the US next month and the US requires proof of vaccination but in the name used in my travel documents. I assume a marriage certificate won't help.
Do I just ask my GP to change the name and, if so, how then do I get a vaccination record in that name in time for my travel. I have only just realised the issue and am leaving on 25th October.
Thanks in advance.
Have you asked the US embassy whether a marriage certificate would solve the problem?
I have emailed the CDC in the US.
But the conference organisers in the US have now told me that the US isn't checking Covid status anymore.
I will ask my GP to change the name so that I can at least access my Covid status in the App. The card records aren't even accurate - one has my d.o.b and NHS number but only my first name and middle name. The other has my name and surname but no d.o.b or NHS number. And the booster has neither just the name of the vaccine.
Still if we're all nuked by Vlad and rendered penniless by Liz I won't be travelling anywhere....
Cyclefree, was some good stuff on this (and previous?) thread re: to your post & situation, including IIRC info from US State Dep or maybe Embassy. There was also link to step-by-step process for getting right with the app, first step being to contact your GP.
Plus IanB said when he entered US recently, immigration didn't care and airline check was cursory.
Bon voyage, and enjoy the Windy City! Two friends of mine were there last week, and had a blast, going to plays, galleries & suchlike, they stayed somewhere in the Loop.
Speaking of Chicago, apparently after recent, massive renovation, you can again visit the Blackstone Hotel on Michigan Ave, and ask to the the (in)famous "Smoke Filled Room" where the deal was done during the 1920 Republican National Convention that made Senator Warren G. Harding of Ohio the GOP nominee and next not-so-great President of the United States.
Blackstone Hotel also featured in other US presidential conventions for both parties, for example 1932 for Democrats & FDR, 1944 for Dems & Harry Truman (for FDR's VP), and 1952 for Republicans & Ike.
I have my card records of my 3 Covid vaccination records in my married name but my passport is in my maiden name as I use this for pretty much all purposes.
I'm travelling to the US next month and the US requires proof of vaccination but in the name used in my travel documents. I assume a marriage certificate won't help.
Do I just ask my GP to change the name and, if so, how then do I get a vaccination record in that name in time for my travel. I have only just realised the issue and am leaving on 25th October.
Thanks in advance.
Have you asked the US embassy whether a marriage certificate would solve the problem?
I have emailed the CDC in the US.
But the conference organisers in the US have now told me that the US isn't checking Covid status anymore.
I will ask my GP to change the name so that I can at least access my Covid status in the App. The card records aren't even accurate - one has my d.o.b and NHS number but only my first name and middle name. The other has my name and surname but no d.o.b or NHS number. And the booster has neither just the name of the vaccine.
Think they stopped checking whether someone has Covid before they travel in June, but I think you still have to prove your vaccination status unless something changed recently?
As above, dont worry about the US, talk to the carrier.
The worry about the US will be affording it when you get here, given that £1 buys you just $1 and a worthless coin.
Looking at the pound this morning (t'other side of world), a little bit of relief but no way out of the woods. Truss (and KK who seems notably absent) really have a tricky run into the Conf. I still reckon she will endure but there is likely to be some blood on the carpet after Conference - KK has now backed himself into a corner and anything he says will now be given undue weight, in effect once the story moves onto him I think he is mince....
There is something of the cloying arrogance of Eton College running through the Tory problems of the last two years.
Time for a major reboot
If you look at the background of previous PMs, the problem is obviously Oxford. From memory (might be wrong), there were six candidates for PM this time around from the Conservative ranks, only two of whom had been to Oxford. Both of those got through to the final two.
Forget Eton; ban anyone's who has had a sniff of Oxford from being PM.
Is it simply because the capture or killing of 2000 Russians is a big deal, or does it have larger strategic significance?
2000 sounds neither here nor there for Russia.
1. Take it out and the Ukrainians can free up forces engaged in the wide encircling movement to further offensives 2,. Its a major supply hub point so denying its use to Russia chokes Russian supply lines to other areas, meaning extended alternative routes and making it harder to maintain previous volumes of supply.
Also if the Russians in the pocket are killed or captured, it proves the Ukrainians can do encirclements on a large scale. I understand that during the Kharkiv counteroffensive, most of the orcs retreated in time. This would be different. The effect on Russian morale would be big.
The standard of maternity care in Texas after the abortion ban
In the words of CO ObGyn Dr. Cohen, "You're not dying enough" "When asked, 'What will be enough, to make her sick enough, to warrant a procedure?' We were told basically a liver failure. Basically, a stroke. Basically, a 911 call," the woman's mother said. https://twitter.com/LauraChapin/status/1575642629928148992
Right on Covid Right on Lab Leak Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE Right on THE TRUSS DRESS Right on GPT3 heralding AGI Right on What3Words taking over mapping Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit Right on Woke (but unproven) Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird
Also: unfortunately vaporised
Remind us of your opinion on Liz Truss when she became leader?
Right on Covid Right on Lab Leak Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE Right on THE TRUSS DRESS Right on GPT3 heralding AGI Right on What3Words taking over mapping Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit Right on Woke (but unproven) Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird
Also: unfortunately vaporised
Right on Covid Right on Lab Leak
Probably, but not definitely, true. Short of direct admission, we'll never know for sure.
Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
Congratulations, you watch QVC.
Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
In the same way that masturbating over a video of... well, let's not go there, shall we.
Right on What3Words taking over mapping
Errrr. No.
Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
I have made a complete list of people who believe that Putin only did very boring and ordinary things.
I wonder how difficult to be for the West to have Putin thrown out of a tall building.
One would hope the combined brains of the CIA. MI6, Mossad, the Bureau et al are working on this full tilt
If anyone in history needs taking out, it is Putin right now. Literally. At GMT 23:51 on the 29th September 2022 he is the biggest threat to human civilisation that humanity has ever faced. He is Hitler with nukes
Well yes, and? In this neck of the woods we have been saying so for several years. However he is falling over his own feet and is facing serious trouble from his own people. Remember he is only the chairman of the board, The patience of the FSB is not limitless. Russia as a pariah state really limits their fun.
Financial Secretary to the Treasury Andrew Griffith MP says that "reducing the right to strike so that we can keep the economy moving" is in the government's growth plan and adds that the Chancellor and Bank of England are "working tightly together"
Financial Secretary to the Treasury Andrew Griffith MP says that "reducing the right to strike so that we can keep the economy moving" is in the government's growth plan and adds that the Chancellor and Bank of England are "working tightly together"
Financial Secretary to the Treasury Andrew Griffith MP says that "reducing the right to strike so that we can keep the economy moving" is in the government's growth plan and adds that the Chancellor and Bank of England are "working tightly together"
Right on Covid Right on Lab Leak Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE Right on THE TRUSS DRESS Right on GPT3 heralding AGI Right on What3Words taking over mapping Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit Right on Woke (but unproven) Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird
Also: unfortunately vaporised
Right on Covid Right on Lab Leak
Probably, but not definitely, true. Short of direct admission, we'll never know for sure.
Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
Congratulations, you watch QVC.
Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
In the same way that masturbating over a video of... well, let's not go there, shall we.
Right on What3Words taking over mapping
Errrr. No.
Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
I have made a complete list of people who believe that Putin only did very boring and ordinary things.
Right on Woke (but unproven)
Yep, defintely right wing on woke.
Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird
And I agree, Right On aliens are weird.
Surely Leon (or was it an earlier incarnation?) was as wrong as it is possible to be on Covid? First claiming it was no big deal, and then confidently predicting that 25% of us would die from it. So completely wrong in both directions.
I wonder how difficult to be for the West to have Putin thrown out of a tall building.
One would hope the combined brains of the CIA. MI6, Mossad, the Bureau et al are working on this full tilt
If anyone in history needs taking out, it is Putin right now. Literally. At GMT 23:51 on the 29th September 2022 he is the biggest threat to human civilisation that humanity has ever faced. He is Hitler with nukes
Well yes, and? In this neck of the woods we have been saying so for several years. However he is falling over his own feet and is facing serious trouble from his own people. Remember he is only the chairman of the board, The patience of the FSB is not limitless. Russia as a pariah state really limits their fun.
Also, go and change your armour.
I have said a few times that we have to be very careful, because there is a real risk that what comes next will make Putin's era look like a liberal renaissance.
The outlook is not good. The middle class are fleeing Russia.
Right on Covid Right on Lab Leak Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE Right on THE TRUSS DRESS Right on GPT3 heralding AGI Right on What3Words taking over mapping Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit Right on Woke (but unproven) Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird
Also: unfortunately vaporised
Right on Covid Right on Lab Leak
Probably, but not definitely, true. Short of direct admission, we'll never know for sure.
Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
Congratulations, you watch QVC.
Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
In the same way that masturbating over a video of... well, let's not go there, shall we.
Right on What3Words taking over mapping
Errrr. No.
Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
I have made a complete list of people who believe that Putin only did very boring and ordinary things.
Right on Woke (but unproven)
Yep, defintely right wing on woke.
Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird
And I agree, Right On aliens are weird.
Leon was also one of the very few posters here who was praising Putin (before the latest invasion of Ukraine)
Speaking of Chicago, apparently after recent, massive renovation, you can again visit the Blackstone Hotel on Michigan Ave, and ask to the the (in)famous "Smoke Filled Room" where the deal was done during the 1920 Republican National Convention that made Senator Warren G. Harding of Ohio the GOP nominee and next not-so-great President of the United States.
Blackstone Hotel also featured in other US presidential conventions for both parties, for example 1932 for Democrats & FDR, 1944 for Dems & Harry Truman (for FDR's VP), and 1952 for Republicans & Ike.
We were (one of) the last people to check out of the blackstone before it closed back in 2000.
It had closed the day before (Wednesday) with everyone moved to other hotels but we arrived back so late (11pm) and were leaving the next day so just stayed because it wasn’t worth the hassle of moving..
Comments
For example, in the US, Texas Senator Ted Cruz might point to the large number of men leaving Russia, and suggest a place for them. Perhaps St. Petersburg should become a "free city", he could suggest. Subject, of course to an internationally-supervised referendum.
(You want opposition politicians doing this, because that keeps it from looking like a government trial balloon,but still brings up the issue.)
33 point lead.
These are not division sized Ukranian armoured forces, they are dispersed mobile tactical teams. Nukes are far too blunt against them.
If Russias missiles and fuses still work.
"The false message about the rigged election, to run through the city stopping the broken pact; voices bought, chapel stained with blood, the empire contracted to another one."
Let's hope he was right then that next period will bring better times after a bad one, as that means we're all still here.
We will take out the fleet (or whatever) as a warning, but then we will cease to arm Ukraine and we will demand that Zelensky seeks peace, by ceding the oblasts
This is horrible, but it is probably the BEST outcome conceivable for humanity if Putin Goes Rogue. He is Hitler with nukes. This was always the nightmare
Though last Monday was about a year ago.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1575603497529397249?s=20&t=ZwiDaHHGex4uBJiTTBDaSQ
The Tony Blair of 2022.
But while people talk about Ukraine being existentially committed versus Russia, there is also an imbalance (it seems to me) between the West’s willingness to resort to WMD against Russia, and Russia’s willingness to do so inside Ukraine.
"Had a lot of discussions in Warsaw today.
Everyone emphasizes that the next days will be decisive for Ukraine, Russia and the world.
Many see the possibility of Russia escalating by using nuclear weapons and once again pulling Belarus into the war.
All agree, Putin lost his mind."
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1575615861515120640?s=20&t=m47Xj1wu5sKxzXeHF8XBog
"Yes, nuclear attack from #russia is likely. Yes, we are googling what to do in case of such an attack. No, #Ukraine will not continue fighting to exist. No, this is no reason to sit down and negotiate with the aggressor."
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1575599577431887872?s=20&t=m47Xj1wu5sKxzXeHF8XBog
You're a fool
That is the key question when considering Putins nuclear strategy.
I think it’s pretty likely China have let Putin know their red lines. If they have, nuclear weapons will be one of them.
I still think it’s fairly unlikely either Putin or NATO will use nuclear weapons in the short/medium term.
Perhaps 10%
Alarmingly high, but keep it in perspective.
The. U.S. officials are urging countries of the Pacific region to put pressure on Putin and communicate to him that the use of nuclear weapons will have a harsh response, Politico reports."
https://twitter.com/recon_officer/status/1575488810879623168?s=20&t=b8ZLMJYOL_6q5GOTG0qrYw
So the normal calculations probably don't work... A mad man has hundreds of nuclear weapons... it is THE nightmare scenario as @Leon said.
When did we last have landslide to landslide?
Hope this puts to bed the idea this is 2015 repeat.
In 2020, we were saying Labour was finished with a smaller Tory lead than this. So I conclude, the Tories are over and should now split
He has made a tremendous mistake: invading Ukraine. He thought it would be a 3 day sweep to victory, now he is in Vietnam times 100. Also, he might actually lose, and therefore be deposed, and be sodomised with a bayonet like Gaddafi
He has tried to mobilise the country with 1m troops but half the best men have fled and he is now feeding meat into a grinder. Ukraine is better armed and more motivated. With NATO behind it, His economy is in meltdown and someone (AMERICA) has just blown up his big pricey hope of cash: Nordstream2
He is facing calamity and death unless he changes the game. So. What do you do, if you are him?
Seriously. What do you do that isn't intense escalation? Retreat really is not an option
Some have said they outright won’t (Kazakhstan), others are “staying silent” (Cuba, Venezuela etc).
That’s encouraging.
Though surely he gets bumped off before the end of the world?
You'd have to be even more insane than Putin to obey a launch order. He's just an old, ill looking mental case. What's in it for you?
There is the example of 1935 (National Landslide) to 1945 (Lab Landslide) but the 1900 to 1906 example would be closer to current developments.
But the conference organisers in the US have now told me that the US isn't checking Covid status anymore.
I will ask my GP to change the name so that I can at least access my Covid status in the App. The card records aren't even accurate - one has my d.o.b and NHS number but only my first name and middle name. The other has my name and surname but no d.o.b or NHS number. And the booster has neither just the name of the vaccine.
Still if we're all nuked by Vlad and rendered penniless by Liz I won't be travelling anywhere....
CON: 43.5% (+12.2)
IND: 27.6% (-15.3)
LAB: 26.2% (+0.5)
GRN: 2.6% (New)
Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2021.
Its the greatest hold in history!
Update: Don't need to wait until Christmas, they won't.
All one can hope is that Conservative MPS dump on the mini budget at Westminster and seek to wipe it, or some of its provisions at least, out. Its the tax cuts that are the problem, the scale is insane.
Ukraine. Further to my post at start of the week regarding the battle around Lyman and an attempted encircling move by the Ukrainians, stories have it the encirclement is complete. The Russians dont seem able to break out and no sign of a relief attempt to create a corridor for a mass escape. No one quite knows how many Russians are in there but some have it in excess of 2000.
CON: 50.6% (+4.0)
LAB: 37.1% (+0.5)
GRN: 5.1% (-6.4)
LDM: 4.3% (New)
INDs: 2.9% (-2.4)
Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2022.
Fuck me Rossendale love the mini budget!
If anyone in history needs taking out, it is Putin right now. Literally. At GMT 23:51 on the 29th September 2022 he is the biggest threat to human civilisation that humanity has ever faced. He is Hitler with nukes
Argyll countrs tomorrow so thats it.
Just one seat changed hands and the Tory vote was more resilient than expected given polling
LDEM: 55.7% (+8.8)
CON: 27.2% (-9.8)
LAB: 10.0% (+0.8)
GRN: 7.0% (+0.2)
Votes cast: 1,925
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Is it simply because the capture or killing of 2000 Russians is a big deal, or does it have larger strategic significance?
2000 sounds neither here nor there for Russia.
Strip them of their treasure and have them pay reparations.
Some people don't seem to grasp this. The reason Putin might go postal is because he faces humiliation, not because he is thrilled by victory. He doesn't want to risk nuclear war, that is the act of a desperate man. But with every Ukrainian advance - even in the face of near-total Russian mobilisation - Putin grows more humiliated and more desperate
There's a massive element of being careful what you wish for with this. The next one isn't going to be a great guy, but the change could be in either direction. Might be Khrushchev... might be Beria.
2,. Its a major supply hub point so denying its use to Russia chokes Russian supply lines to other areas, meaning extended alternative routes and making it harder to maintain previous volumes of supply.
BJO tip of the thread
Hopefully the pocket “closes” tonight/tomorrow.
No idea if this is an official statement by some kind of authority but 6-7% of the population are Muslim and concentrated in a number of areas, so if this did ever take off, Putin is going to have a regional headache, in his own borders.
Plus IanB said when he entered US recently, immigration didn't care and airline check was cursory.
Bon voyage, and enjoy the Windy City! Two friends of mine were there last week, and had a blast, going to plays, galleries & suchlike, they stayed somewhere in the Loop.
Blackstone Hotel also featured in other US presidential conventions for both parties, for example 1932 for Democrats & FDR, 1944 for Dems & Harry Truman (for FDR's VP), and 1952 for Republicans & Ike.
The worry about the US will be affording it when you get here, given that £1 buys you just $1 and a worthless coin.
Time for a major reboot
Forget Eton; ban anyone's who has had a sniff of Oxford from being PM.
Here's hoping.
Wisconsin seems to be moving to a clear (if small) Republican lead, while the gap in Pennsylvania has narrowed.
In the Muslim North Caucasus, the threat for Russia has taken on a more dramatic flavor, with talk of secession.
https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1575515426053918723
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3667755-ny-public-officials-criticize-desantis-for-voting-against-hurricane-sandy-relief/
I’d forgotten he was once a Congessman.
In the words of CO ObGyn Dr. Cohen, "You're not dying enough" "When asked, 'What will be enough, to make her sick enough, to warrant a procedure?' We were told basically a liver failure. Basically, a stroke. Basically, a 911 call," the woman's mother said.
https://twitter.com/LauraChapin/status/1575642629928148992
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63080462
Right on Lab Leak
Probably, but not definitely, true. Short of direct admission, we'll never know for sure.
Right on THE TRUSS NECKLACE
Right on THE TRUSS DRESS
Congratulations, you watch QVC.
Right on GPT3 heralding AGI
In the same way that masturbating over a video of... well, let's not go there, shall we.
Right on What3Words taking over mapping
Errrr. No.
Right on Putin doing crazy crazy cray cray shit
I have made a complete list of people who believe that Putin only did very boring and ordinary things.
Right on Woke (but unproven)
Yep, defintely right wing on woke.
Right on Aliens being Definitely Something Weird
And I agree, Right On aliens are weird.
Also, go and change your armour.
Financial Secretary to the Treasury Andrew Griffith MP says that "reducing the right to strike so that we can keep the economy moving" is in the government's growth plan and adds that the Chancellor and Bank of England are "working tightly together"
👉 https://trib.al/F9oKW6x https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1575731984588046336/video/1
Bloody parasitical railway people striking are ruining the soccer for the masses.
I'd allow employers to deduct one month's salary for every day an employee strikes.
First claiming it was no big deal, and then confidently predicting that 25% of us would die from it.
So completely wrong in both directions.
The outlook is not good. The middle class are fleeing Russia.
Only time will tell.
It had closed the day before (Wednesday) with everyone moved to other hotels but we arrived back so late (11pm) and were leaving the next day so just stayed because it wasn’t worth the hassle of moving..
https://twitter.com/HitchinLibrary/status/1575481422651232256