Despite a plethora of parties contesting the election for the 100-seat Saeima only nine look set to win seats.
The latest seat projection from Factum has the New Unity Party of the current Prime Minister winning 28 seats (+20 from the 2018 election). Its allies in the coalition Government, the National Alliance win 10 seats (-3) and the Development For! party 7 (-6). The Conservatives look set to be wiped out losing all 16 seats.
That leaves the coalition on 45 so six short of a majority.
United List look set to win 12 seats (+12 as didn't exist at the 2018 election), the Progressives 11 (+11) and Harmony, the social democratic party 10 (-13). The Union of Greens and Farmers are on 8 seats (-3).
So that's another 41 seats.
The Centrist For Stability! will enter the Saeima with 8 seats leaving Latvia First with 6. Neither grouping existed at the last election.
Is there a possible alternative to a coalition led by New Unity? You could cobble together a near majority with the five centre and centre-left parties but whether they could or would work together requires an expert in Latvian politics (which I'm not).
There's another poll by a group called SKDS which has the governing parties polling just 36.8%.
Only seven parties make the 5% threshold with both For Stability and Latvia First just missing out. That puts 14 seats into play but my take on the polling suggests the anti-coalition parties will win moat of them.
'Thérèse Coffey is ditching the government’s long-promised white paper on health inequalities, despite the 19-year gap in life expectancy between rich and poor, the Guardian has been told.
The health secretary has decided to not publish a document that was due to set out plans to address the stark inequalities in health that the Covid-19 pandemic exposed.
It was meant to appear by last spring and be a key part of then prime minister Boris Johnson’s declared mission to level up Britain.
It was due to set out “bold action” to narrow the wide inequalities in health outcomes that exist between deprived and well-off areas, between white and BAME populations, and between the north and south of England'
I have a feeling she'll try and do a "ladies not for turning" moment...
Her conference reception is going to be rapturous. She'll be able to say what she likes, but I'd be very surprised if 'not for turning' isn't there in some form, whether in the subtext, or the text.
Corbyn always got a rapturous reception at Labour Conference. They loved him. Voters? Not so much.
I don't know about 33 pts but it's looking baked in now. Labour government coming. I was just out in the Village and you can feel it. Not the usual Hampstead Thursday night, something more energised and joyful. Everywhere you looked, happy enlightened faces - including mine.
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss will attend a new European political “club of nations,” the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron, early next month, according to a source https://trib.al/cnj9gPo
Will the headbangers put in their letters before the rest of the Tory MPS get a chance...
Good. New collaborative political structures of nation states outside the EU is what I voted for.
🗳 Rebel Tories are preparing to vote down sections of the Finance Bill to block the abolition of the 45p rate by supporting amendments that would see it struck out, The Telegraph understands
Ridiculous. That's a tiny part of the problem. The government has chosen to borrow very large amounts and won't provide the figures. Everyone knows the 45p rate is small change.
Yeh, but the politics of the 45p are so utterly awful and tin-eared that as Telegraph are reporting Tory MPs are being shouted at in the street that dropping it is base 1 of getting themselves out of the shit Truss has tipped them in.
Voting against something is also a way for those MPs to make it clear to Truss that her power is not unlimited and she does have to pay attention to them...
I don't know about 33 pts but it's looking baked in now. Labour government coming. I was just out in the Village and you can feel it. Not the usual Hampstead Thursday night, something more energised and joyful. Everywhere you looked, happy enlightened faces - including mine.
You might have encountered @Leon crying into his Galician Fish Stew.
I don't know about 33 pts but it's looking baked in now. Labour government coming. I was just out in the Village and you can feel it. Not the usual Hampstead Thursday night, something more energised and joyful. Everywhere you looked, happy enlightened faces - including mine.
Bunch of leftie luvvie remainers, though, so doesn't count. I used to live there.
But, apparently, people on the streets of Stoke are also looking chipper and chanting 'Starmer for Stoke!' in the streets, so the feeling is indeed widespread.
i think the pound may be rallying because the markets may be anticipating a fed pivot coming....that will change everything
it's rallying cos King Korma is gonna come to save us all
As the country now understands, You can present facts and try to reason with Liz all you want, but hermind is made up. There's naan so blind as those who will not see.
🗳 Rebel Tories are preparing to vote down sections of the Finance Bill to block the abolition of the 45p rate by supporting amendments that would see it struck out, The Telegraph understands
Ridiculous. That's a tiny part of the problem. The government has chosen to borrow very large amounts and won't provide the figures. Everyone knows the 45p rate is small change.
Yeh, but the politics of the 45p are so utterly awful and tin-eared that as Telegraph are reporting Tory MPs are being shouted at in the street that dropping it is base 1 of getting themselves out of the shit Truss has tipped them in.
They need a credible fiscal plan. Have the markets over-reacted? Possibly but can you really blame them when we don't have the OBR's figures?
I have a feeling she'll try and do a "ladies not for turning" moment...
Her conference reception is going to be rapturous. She'll be able to say what she likes, but I'd be very surprised if 'not for turning' isn't there in some form, whether in the subtext, or the text.
Corbyn always got a rapturous reception at Labour Conference. They loved him. Voters? Not so much.
True, but we are talking about the conference. Truss will be Joan of Arc crossed with Maggie crossed with Elizabeth 1 at Tilbury. Her reception will blow the roof off.
There seems to have been little mention of the Kantar poll putting the Tories within 4 points of Labour. Did I miss the discussion, or are we just ignoring it?
Is that the one where the fieldwork was done prior to the mini-budget?
22-26 Sept, Doug.
Doesn't Kantar anticipate a lot of swingback in their polls, so not really a nowcast like the other pollsters so much as a forecast?
As far as I’m aware, no, just Opinium are on record with swingback.
Kantor polls have always struggled to find Labour support - they only show once a month, or more, with a similar Lab lead to that of the swingback Opinium. When sun was shining for Tories they produced Lab %s quite a bit lower than the Tory %.
But 'I fucked up on an epochal scale, and I hereby resign, disclaim my pension and recuse myself from future public sector roles' would be more satisfying.
We'll have to be careful if Truss resigns.
We don't want to discover that she is in charge of the Chiltern Nineties.
While there's no doubt that the Tories have been the authors of their own misfortune, I would like to put in a word for Starmer. Corbyn wouldn't be getting these sort of opinion poll leads.
Starmer has been much derided by most on here (until recently), of all political shades, for being dull, being a remainer and a lefty lawyer, metropolitan elite baggage etc. etc. However, he's only been leader for 2.5 years. What he's managed to achieve internally in the LP has been hugely impressive, as witnessed at Conference this week. He's won the vast majority of the membership (I am one) over. And, slowly but surely, he's getting a hearing, appearing statesmanlike, and increasingly appealing to the public. The number of PB Tories considering voting for him as a safe pair of hands is testament to that. And he hasn't put a foot wrong in the chaos of this week. He's had a good couple of years, and it looks like he'll be rewarded by being the next PM.
Yes, well said. He's not just a passive beneficiary of tory suicide. He's done a great job.
Hinge moment looking back? Holding Batley & Spen. That was so important.
I have a solution to the crisis Fed and BofE pivot and start printing money again to save the economy and housing market Problem inflation so we need to slow the velocity of money Solution More covid lockdowns We can now print money without generating inflation
I don't know about 33 pts but it's looking baked in now. Labour government coming. I was just out in the Village and you can feel it. Not the usual Hampstead Thursday night, something more energised and joyful. Everywhere you looked, happy enlightened faces - including mine.
Is that dangerously self indulgent? Don't get me wrong I'd love to see the back of the Tories but we're in very choppy waters financially and ordinary people (maybe not the sort you tend to find in Hampstead) are facing a lot of pain.
Of course the polls are going to be dire for the Tories this side of Christmas.
Central to Liz Truss’s pitch.
Take on the dragons. Make the difficult policy choices. Be damned with the immediate term popularity contests. Those are for next year, as policy begins to pay off.
We all talked about what Boris would do next to rake in millions, but Truss can walk off now and have the nuts of a programme - think “Loose Women” but her, Elizabeth Holmes and Anna Delvey. Just call it “Fake it till you make it”.
I have a solution to the crisis Fed and BofE pivot and start printing money again to save the economy and housing market Problem inflation so we need to slow the velocity of money Solution More covid lockdowns We can now print money without generating inflation
I don't know about 33 pts but it's looking baked in now. Labour government coming. I was just out in the Village and you can feel it. Not the usual Hampstead Thursday night, something more energised and joyful. Everywhere you looked, happy enlightened faces - including mine.
Is that dangerously self indulgent? Don't get me wrong I'd love to see the back of the Tories but we're in very choppy waters financially and ordinary people (maybe not the sort you tend to find in Hampstead) are facing a lot of pain.
“Self indulgent” is a very restrained and polite way of calling that post. 🙂
I have a feeling she'll try and do a "ladies not for turning" moment...
Her conference reception is going to be rapturous. She'll be able to say what she likes, but I'd be very surprised if 'not for turning' isn't there in some form, whether in the subtext, or the text.
If her reception is rapturous it will simply confirm to the general public that the Tory Party has lost touch with reality and is barking mad
I don't know about 33 pts but it's looking baked in now. Labour government coming. I was just out in the Village and you can feel it. Not the usual Hampstead Thursday night, something more energised and joyful. Everywhere you looked, happy enlightened faces - including mine.
Lots of people seem to be taking the plunge.
Can they fix things? People may be unsure about that. But the perennial cry of opposition 'time for a change', has struck home with a vengeance this time.
Probably because the government are using it as well, but governments cannot pull that shit twice.
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss will attend a new European political “club of nations,” the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron, early next month, according to a source https://trib.al/cnj9gPo
Will the headbangers put in their letters before the rest of the Tory MPS get a chance...
Good. New collaborative political structures of nation states outside the EU is what I voted for.
Sounds like a very good idea to me, closeness without EU level integration works for lots of people.
I don't know about 33 pts but it's looking baked in now. Labour government coming. I was just out in the Village and you can feel it. Not the usual Hampstead Thursday night, something more energised and joyful. Everywhere you looked, happy enlightened faces - including mine.
You might have encountered @Leon crying into his Galician Fish Stew.
I notice those shrugging their shoulders - Sean F, William G and Barth - are not mentioning the intervention by the Bank of England to stop pension funds collapsing. As for interest rates, we now have inflation. Of course interest are going to go up. It has already started. But the essential argument was whether the Bank should have gone 0.25% higher on Thursday, which now feels rather academic.
My sense is that certain people cannot accept that whilst Sunak's tax rises were in place the markets had confidence in UK borrowing. Once they were reversed and then some, the markets took fright. It goes against everything believed by people of a certain obsessive ideology. That tax cuts equal economic nirvana and tax rises equals economic doom. Reality is a bit more complicated.
I did mention the Bank's action actually. The Bank chose to engage in QT and that is when the markets took fright, but the mini budget got the blame.
The tax cuts are an irrelevant side show to be honest, though they get the political headlines and will carry the news. The Bank selling rather than buying £80bn of gilts while the State had to borrow to pay for energy support etc would have tipped over the market either way, with or without the taxes.
The Bank reversed their decision to engage in QT and the markets stabilised.
Any proof for that?
I mean on a timeline it was the statement that caused the reaction in the markets and I don't know exactly what you are basing this on. Which high level voices in the financial world have been saying that.
On a timeline, the Bank announced it would begin QT only last week.
Though it took some time for people to fully comprehend just what that meant, the sell off of Sterling began immediately, before the Chancellor even began to speak on Friday it had already started falling. Yes the markets overreacted to the Chancellor's statement, but missing what the Bank did is missing a critical piece of the puzzle.
The Bank reversing their QT decision has brought some measure of stability back to the markets.
QE combined with raising interest rates is not a stable policy combination.
The fact that the BoE was forced into it in order to prevent insolvency of pension funds is not a triumph of policy, nor one that can last. The clock is ticking on it already.
There is no stable policy combination though, and you were in favour of Covid lockdowns, this is the end result.
You don't get to spend hundreds of billions for Covid, then hundreds of billions for gas, put it on a national credit card bought off by the Bank of England printing money, then expect that to be unwound without it causing turmoil.
Had the Bank not engaged in QE in the first place, we'd never have been able to afford lockdown, and this reckoning would have happened years ago. You can only kick the can so far.
Oh come on: this isn't the result of Covid lockdowns (except possibly the result of Chinese Covid lockdowns on the world economy).
The economic problems we're suffering from are mostly the same as all countries:
(a) The removal of a very large amount of natural gas from the world market, which is sending gas and electricity prices through the roof.
(b) This is leading to inflation, resulting in pressure on wages, on government costs (the triple lock in the UK making it worse) and on the rate at which the government borrows.
(c) In parallel to this, there are long term secular trends in public expenditure that make it very hard for governments - in particular the issue of an ageing population, and a potentially inverting population pyramid. (See Japan and Italy for the long-term impacts of demographics on economic growth.)
(d) Finally, there are some non-trivial UK-specific headwinds - notably an excessive reliance on consumption for economic growth, high levels of consumer debt and (relatedly) a general mortgaging of the assets of UK PLC.
I have a feeling she'll try and do a "ladies not for turning" moment...
Her conference reception is going to be rapturous. She'll be able to say what she likes, but I'd be very surprised if 'not for turning' isn't there in some form, whether in the subtext, or the text.
If her reception is rapturous it will simply confirm to the general public that the Tory Party has lost touch with reality and is barking mad
It will certainly expose them to a view not represented Scott P's Tweet output.
⚡️At an emergency meeting of the National Security Council tomorrow, fundamental decisions for Ukraine will be made, - Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security Council.
I have a feeling she'll try and do a "ladies not for turning" moment...
Her conference reception is going to be rapturous. She'll be able to say what she likes, but I'd be very surprised if 'not for turning' isn't there in some form, whether in the subtext, or the text.
i think the pound may be rallying because the markets may be anticipating a fed pivot coming....that will change everything
Haha, the pound is rallying? Thoughts and prayers for Scott P.
Radio 4 PM said the USD was on the descent rather than UKP on the ascent but I haven't checked myself.
Well USD was on the ascent rather than GBP being on the descent all year long, didn't stop people saying the other way around until now though.
Cable is now basically back to where it was before Kwarteng started speaking on Friday.
Yes because the market has correctly understood his plans will never happen.
exactly its over
Nope. Everything is going to be exactly the same. The markets lost their shit because the BOE stopped buying Government debt and switched to trying to flog it off, and Kwasi's (admittedly very poorly presented) mini budget was the trigger.
I have a solution to the crisis Fed and BofE pivot and start printing money again to save the economy and housing market Problem inflation so we need to slow the velocity of money Solution More covid lockdowns We can now print money without generating inflation
That doesn’t stop inflation merely delays it
i agree but it would get us through the winter...we could all go back to watching netflix again...interesting netflix stock holding up very well in this selloff
'Thérèse Coffey is ditching the government’s long-promised white paper on health inequalities, despite the 19-year gap in life expectancy between rich and poor, the Guardian has been told.
The health secretary has decided to not publish a document that was due to set out plans to address the stark inequalities in health that the Covid-19 pandemic exposed.
It was meant to appear by last spring and be a key part of then prime minister Boris Johnson’s declared mission to level up Britain.
It was due to set out “bold action” to narrow the wide inequalities in health outcomes that exist between deprived and well-off areas, between white and BAME populations, and between the north and south of England'
Classic Coffey - difficult document ? Don't pubiish it. Just like her department's DWP report that said that welfare sanctions were not just actually useless, but achieving the opposite effect from what was required, at considerable both mental health and financial cost. Solution ? Just pretend it's not there.
'Thérèse Coffey is ditching the government’s long-promised white paper on health inequalities, despite the 19-year gap in life expectancy between rich and poor, the Guardian has been told.
The health secretary has decided to not publish a document that was due to set out plans to address the stark inequalities in health that the Covid-19 pandemic exposed.
It was meant to appear by last spring and be a key part of then prime minister Boris Johnson’s declared mission to level up Britain.
It was due to set out “bold action” to narrow the wide inequalities in health outcomes that exist between deprived and well-off areas, between white and BAME populations, and between the north and south of England'
'Decided not to publish'
Fuck you Coffey. That is eight reports that you've censored. Fucking eight.
I have a feeling she'll try and do a "ladies not for turning" moment...
Her conference reception is going to be rapturous. She'll be able to say what she likes, but I'd be very surprised if 'not for turning' isn't there in some form, whether in the subtext, or the text.
Corbyn always got a rapturous reception at Labour Conference. They loved him. Voters? Not so much.
True, but we are talking about the conference. Truss will be Joan of Arc crossed with Maggie crossed with Elizabeth 1 at Tilbury. Her reception will blow the roof off.
Joan of Arc you say? I think they'll certainly be angry with her, but I don't think they'll go as far as burning her at the stake.
I have a solution to the crisis Fed and BofE pivot and start printing money again to save the economy and housing market Problem inflation so we need to slow the velocity of money Solution More covid lockdowns We can now print money without generating inflation
What makes you think anyone will obey covid lockdowns at this point? I'd rather go to prison than obey. It amounts to the same thing.
There seems to have been little mention of the Kantar poll putting the Tories within 4 points of Labour. Did I miss the discussion, or are we just ignoring it?
First day of field work was before the Not-A-Budget.
Thanks, Al, but it is still a strikingly low number.
I think Kantar have a reputaution for being a bit maverick, which is not to say they are necessarily wrong, just different.
It is. Fieldwork was entirely before Monday though. Which is when the market turmoil hit. Still an outlier on what preceded that.
Just a movement of 3 from Kantor, not wildly different from their previous poll.
What I'm really interested in is whether, as I suspect it might have, that Yougov poll had later fieldwork than the others. More after yesterday afternoon / lunchtime.
Yougov methodology produces too much fluctuations. Things may have been working for them once, but not at the moment - it needs to go into the garage and poked around under the hood.
28th July they had a Labour lead of 1. 22nd July 7. It’s like a broken cursor leaping inaccurately across a screen.
The fact that @TheScreamingEagles is polled almost every week should show that something isn't entirely random about the polls.
Polls tend to be dominated by people who are interested in politics and are happy to sit down and share their views, a bit like this site really. They tend to jump around more based on the news as a result.
It looks like we are at the bargaining stage of the grief response.
I have a feeling she'll try and do a "ladies not for turning" moment...
Her conference reception is going to be rapturous. She'll be able to say what she likes, but I'd be very surprised if 'not for turning' isn't there in some form, whether in the subtext, or the text.
I hope they get a bit more creative with it though, as it could be a real groaner otherwise.
Personally I've always been in favour of turning, especially when I'm careening at high speed toward a brick wall or cliff edge.
i think the pound may be rallying because the markets may be anticipating a fed pivot coming....that will change everything
Haha, the pound is rallying? Thoughts and prayers for Scott P.
Radio 4 PM said the USD was on the descent rather than UKP on the ascent but I haven't checked myself.
Well USD was on the ascent rather than GBP being on the descent all year long, didn't stop people saying the other way around until now though.
Cable is now basically back to where it was before Kwarteng started speaking on Friday.
To be honest Bart, cable is the least of our worries. Yesterday's buy back of Gilts when buying back of Gilts was the last thing the BoE wanted to do, is a big worry, and it was a direct response to the budget-not-a-budget. Whether you agree or not, Friday's event was tantamount to an overtaking manoeuvre around a blind bend.
I have a solution to the crisis Fed and BofE pivot and start printing money again to save the economy and housing market Problem inflation so we need to slow the velocity of money Solution More covid lockdowns We can now print money without generating inflation
What makes you think anyone will obey covid lockdowns at this point? I'd rather go to prison than obey. It amounts to the same thing.
But you can't usefully disobey a lockdown if there's no cinemas, pubs, sport, flights...
I have a feeling she'll try and do a "ladies not for turning" moment...
Her conference reception is going to be rapturous. She'll be able to say what she likes, but I'd be very surprised if 'not for turning' isn't there in some form, whether in the subtext, or the text.
Corbyn always got a rapturous reception at Labour Conference. They loved him. Voters? Not so much.
True, but we are talking about the conference. Truss will be Joan of Arc crossed with Maggie crossed with Elizabeth 1 at Tilbury. Her reception will blow the roof off.
Joan of Arc you say? I think they'll certainly be angry with her, but I don't think they'll go as far as burning her at the stake.
They'll burn the IMF man with the googly eyes in effigy.
Of course the polls are going to be dire for the Tories this side of Christmas.
Central to Liz Truss’s pitch.
Take on the dragons. Make the difficult policy choices. Be damned with the immediate term popularity contests. Those are for next year, as policy begins to pay off.
When you make difficult and unpopular choices you might expect a hit, but not this kind of hit. This is the kind you don't get back up from.
Talk about misreading the mood of the country though - who the fuck did they think would go for this?
Presumably Liz got so used to the membership fawning over her during the leadership campaign that she genuinely started to believe she was the Second Coming. Of course, in the real world you have to earn political respect. She didn't have it, came up with a mad plan anyway, and then everyone else gave their verdict.
'Thérèse Coffey is ditching the government’s long-promised white paper on health inequalities, despite the 19-year gap in life expectancy between rich and poor, the Guardian has been told.
The health secretary has decided to not publish a document that was due to set out plans to address the stark inequalities in health that the Covid-19 pandemic exposed.
It was meant to appear by last spring and be a key part of then prime minister Boris Johnson’s declared mission to level up Britain.
It was due to set out “bold action” to narrow the wide inequalities in health outcomes that exist between deprived and well-off areas, between white and BAME populations, and between the north and south of England'
'Decided not to publish'
Fuck you Coffey. That is eight reports that you've censored. Fucking eight.
While there's no doubt that the Tories have been the authors of their own misfortune, I would like to put in a word for Starmer. Corbyn wouldn't be getting these sort of opinion poll leads.
Starmer has been much derided by most on here (until recently), of all political shades, for being dull, being a remainer and a lefty lawyer, metropolitan elite baggage etc. etc. However, he's only been leader for 2.5 years. What he's managed to achieve internally in the LP has been hugely impressive, as witnessed at Conference this week. He's won the vast majority of the membership (I am one) over. And, slowly but surely, he's getting a hearing, appearing statesmanlike, and increasingly appealing to the public. The number of PB Tories considering voting for him as a safe pair of hands is testament to that. And he hasn't put a foot wrong in the chaos of this week. He's had a good couple of years, and it looks like he'll be rewarded by being the next PM.
Yes, well said. He's not just a passive beneficiary of tory suicide. He's done a great job.
Hinge moment looking back? Holding Batley & Spen. That was so important.
Seem to remember we were talking about it as an Adrian Heath at Oxford, Mark Robins at Forest moment?
'Thérèse Coffey is ditching the government’s long-promised white paper on health inequalities, despite the 19-year gap in life expectancy between rich and poor, the Guardian has been told.
The health secretary has decided to not publish a document that was due to set out plans to address the stark inequalities in health that the Covid-19 pandemic exposed.
It was meant to appear by last spring and be a key part of then prime minister Boris Johnson’s declared mission to level up Britain.
It was due to set out “bold action” to narrow the wide inequalities in health outcomes that exist between deprived and well-off areas, between white and BAME populations, and between the north and south of England'
Classic Coffey - difficult document - don't publish it. Just like her departments DWP report that said that welfare sanctions were just actually useless, but achieving the opposite effect from what was required, at considerable mental health and financial cost. Solution ? Don't publish it.
I think we should now say censored, supressed, concealed or redacted. Call it what it is. Hiding inconvenient facts.
i think the pound may be rallying because the markets may be anticipating a fed pivot coming....that will change everything
Haha, the pound is rallying? Thoughts and prayers for Scott P.
Radio 4 PM said the USD was on the descent rather than UKP on the ascent but I haven't checked myself.
Well USD was on the ascent rather than GBP being on the descent all year long, didn't stop people saying the other way around until now though.
Cable is now basically back to where it was before Kwarteng started speaking on Friday.
Oh please stop with the “Cable” - I get it sounds like it’s authoritative city speak but unless you are in that world - and I’ve heard it used here more since Cicero used it the other week than I ever heard it in years of doing currency transactions - it’s not really a thing. It’s exciting to have a new word for something but it’s really silly.
I have a feeling she'll try and do a "ladies not for turning" moment...
Her conference reception is going to be rapturous. She'll be able to say what she likes, but I'd be very surprised if 'not for turning' isn't there in some form, whether in the subtext, or the text.
I hope they get a bit more creative with it though, as it could be a real groaner otherwise.
Personally I've always been in favour of turning, especially when I'm careening at high speed toward a brick wall or cliff edge.
She will almost certainly say she is not for turning cos its part of her cosplay Thatcher act. Then unlike the real Thatcher she will u-turn shortly afterwards as she only has about 50 MPs who support her and about 600 who think she is a bit weird and a disaster.
I don't know about 33 pts but it's looking baked in now. Labour government coming. I was just out in the Village and you can feel it. Not the usual Hampstead Thursday night, something more energised and joyful. Everywhere you looked, happy enlightened faces - including mine.
You might have encountered @Leon crying into his Galician Fish Stew.
There was a bloke who looked like he was trying to eat away his troubles with this absurdly large plate of what looked like oysters.
I have my card records of my 3 Covid vaccination records in my married name but my passport is in my maiden name as I use this for pretty much all purposes.
I'm travelling to the US next month and the US requires proof of vaccination but in the name used in my travel documents. I assume a marriage certificate won't help.
Do I just ask my GP to change the name and, if so, how then do I get a vaccination record in that name in time for my travel. I have only just realised the issue and am leaving on 25th October.
Totally off topic but I was at a dinner on Tuesday night, Chris Patten speaking about Hong Kong and his new book, bloke to my right was banging on to the person on his right about “the Woke”. Pause in conversation came and he turned and introduced himself. Really not in the mood for any Leonesque wankery I said “I’m [Doug]* pleasure to meet you, my pronouns are ‘he’ and ‘him’”. Job done and I got back to a more interesting chat with the chap on my left.
I don't know about 33 pts but it's looking baked in now. Labour government coming. I was just out in the Village and you can feel it. Not the usual Hampstead Thursday night, something more energised and joyful. Everywhere you looked, happy enlightened faces - including mine.
And what will change? Exactly?
We'll get serious competent government. Which we deserve.
Of course the polls are going to be dire for the Tories this side of Christmas.
Central to Liz Truss’s pitch.
Take on the dragons. Make the difficult policy choices. Be damned with the immediate term popularity contests. Those are for next year, as policy begins to pay off.
When you make difficult and unpopular choices you might expect a hit, but not this kind of hit. This is the kind you don't get back up from.
Talk about misreading the mood of the country though - who the fuck did they think would go for this?
Presumably Liz got so used to the membership fawning over her during the leadership campaign that she genuinely started to believe she was the Second Coming. Of course, in the real world you have to earn political respect. She didn't have it, came up with a mad plan anyway, and then everyone else gave their verdict.
She does appear to have gone a bit loopy, which is odd as a steady, generally competent rise through the ranks would not have suggested the kind of person who produces a half baked plan (their lack of preparation has been obvious in how flummoxed they have been by the reaction) and thinks it is a strength to ignore the mountain of evidence it won't work now anyway, since the damage from the announcement itself will see to that.
While there's no doubt that the Tories have been the authors of their own misfortune, I would like to put in a word for Starmer. Corbyn wouldn't be getting these sort of opinion poll leads.
Starmer has been much derided my most on here for his boring demeanour etc. etc. However, he's only been leader for 2.5 years. What he's managed to achieve internally in the LP has been hugely impressive, as witnessed at Conference this week. And, slowly but surely, he's getting a hearing, appearing statesmanlike, and increasingly appealing to the public. The number of PB Tories considering voting for him as a safe pair of hands is testament to that. And he hasn't put a foot wrong in the chaos of this week.
After seeing the results of "personality politicians", I would look forward to a dull, boring politician who maybe does serious stuff instead of sliding down zip-wires waving union jacks or doing Maggie photo-shoots on top of tanks. You know, somebody who actually does the job!
There's certainly a lot to be said for basic administrative competence. The odd thing about so many of these pratfalls is how easily avoidable they are.
I have a solution to the crisis Fed and BofE pivot and start printing money again to save the economy and housing market Problem inflation so we need to slow the velocity of money Solution More covid lockdowns We can now print money without generating inflation
What makes you think anyone will obey covid lockdowns at this point? I'd rather go to prison than obey. It amounts to the same thing.
But you can't usefully disobey a lockdown if there's no cinemas, pubs, sport, flights...
You seem to forget that lockdowns involved not being allowed out of our houses for more than two hours a day, police arresting people for being more than five miles away from their place of residence without a reason, the police breaking down people's doors on suspicion they had people from outside their household on the premises, and people being fined five figure sums for hosting raves out in the middle of the woods.
There is more to life than going to bars and shopping.
While there's no doubt that the Tories have been the authors of their own misfortune, I would like to put in a word for Starmer. Corbyn wouldn't be getting these sort of opinion poll leads.
Starmer has been much derided my most on here for his boring demeanour etc. etc. However, he's only been leader for 2.5 years. What he's managed to achieve internally in the LP has been hugely impressive, as witnessed at Conference this week. And, slowly but surely, he's getting a hearing, appearing statesmanlike, and increasingly appealing to the public. The number of PB Tories considering voting for him as a safe pair of hands is testament to that. And he hasn't put a foot wrong in the chaos of this week.
After seeing the results of "personality politicians", I would look forward to a dull, boring politician who maybe does serious stuff instead of sliding down zip-wires waving union jacks or doing Maggie photo-shoots on top of tanks. You know, somebody who actually does the job!
There's certainly a lot to be said for basic administrative competence. The odd thing about so many of these pratfalls is how easily avoidable they are.
There's really no way for the public to judge competence in a politician, or even if they can, whether it will translate to a new role like being PM.
Adding today's four polls to the EMA gives Labour a lead of 14% and an overall majority of 114.
Thanks Barnesian.
We can I think expect that there will be a good deal of tactical voting at the next election. That would suggest a figure in excess of 114, but I suppose SKS would take your figure anyway.
There's certainly a lot to be said for basic administrative competence. The odd thing about so many of these pratfalls is how easily avoidable they are.
Frosty the no man appears to be offering his services to team Truss in his column this evening..
I notice those shrugging their shoulders - Sean F, William G and Barth - are not mentioning the intervention by the Bank of England to stop pension funds collapsing. As for interest rates, we now have inflation. Of course interest are going to go up. It has already started. But the essential argument was whether the Bank should have gone 0.25% higher on Thursday, which now feels rather academic.
My sense is that certain people cannot accept that whilst Sunak's tax rises were in place the markets had confidence in UK borrowing. Once they were reversed and then some, the markets took fright. It goes against everything believed by people of a certain obsessive ideology. That tax cuts equal economic nirvana and tax rises equals economic doom. Reality is a bit more complicated.
I did mention the Bank's action actually. The Bank chose to engage in QT and that is when the markets took fright, but the mini budget got the blame.
The tax cuts are an irrelevant side show to be honest, though they get the political headlines and will carry the news. The Bank selling rather than buying £80bn of gilts while the State had to borrow to pay for energy support etc would have tipped over the market either way, with or without the taxes.
The Bank reversed their decision to engage in QT and the markets stabilised.
Any proof for that?
I mean on a timeline it was the statement that caused the reaction in the markets and I don't know exactly what you are basing this on. Which high level voices in the financial world have been saying that.
On a timeline, the Bank announced it would begin QT only last week.
Though it took some time for people to fully comprehend just what that meant, the sell off of Sterling began immediately, before the Chancellor even began to speak on Friday it had already started falling. Yes the markets overreacted to the Chancellor's statement, but missing what the Bank did is missing a critical piece of the puzzle.
The Bank reversing their QT decision has brought some measure of stability back to the markets.
QE combined with raising interest rates is not a stable policy combination.
The fact that the BoE was forced into it in order to prevent insolvency of pension funds is not a triumph of policy, nor one that can last. The clock is ticking on it already.
There is no stable policy combination though, and you were in favour of Covid lockdowns, this is the end result.
You don't get to spend hundreds of billions for Covid, then hundreds of billions for gas, put it on a national credit card bought off by the Bank of England printing money, then expect that to be unwound without it causing turmoil.
Had the Bank not engaged in QE in the first place, we'd never have been able to afford lockdown, and this reckoning would have happened years ago. You can only kick the can so far.
Oh come on: this isn't the result of Covid lockdowns (except possibly the result of Chinese Covid lockdowns on the world economy).
The economic problems we're suffering from are mostly the same as all countries:
(a) The removal of a very large amount of natural gas from the world market, which is sending gas and electricity prices through the roof.
(b) This is leading to inflation, resulting in pressure on wages, on government costs (the triple lock in the UK making it worse) and on the rate at which the government borrows.
(c) In parallel to this, there are long term secular trends in public expenditure that make it very hard for governments - in particular the issue of an ageing population, and a potentially inverting population pyramid. (See Japan and Italy for the long-term impacts of demographics on economic growth.)
(d) Finally, there are some non-trivial UK-specific headwinds - notably an excessive reliance on consumption for economic growth, high levels of consumer debt and (relatedly) a general mortgaging of the assets of UK PLC.
But we've gone pretty quickly from being seen as one of the safest countries in the G7 against default to one of the riskiest in the space of a few months? Why? None of those factors would suggest that. It's due to the recklessness of the government.
@RedfieldWilton I am sure somebody will correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the 1st subset (tiny sample - mega legit warning) in 7 years that shows Scottish Labour ahead in voting intention for next GE. @AnasSarwar
There's certainly a lot to be said for basic administrative competence. The odd thing about so many of these pratfalls is how easily avoidable they are.
Frosty the no man appears to be offering his services to team Truss in his column this evening..
Well, he was only too happy to avail himself of European institutions such as the law courts when he was trying to get one over the Scottish Government over alcohol minimum pricing.
The government needs to stand firm IMO. Wait for other news to take over the agenda, which it inevitably will.
The government does not have a majority in the commons. Not sure it even has 150 MPs who will vote for this nonsense. So it does not matter what they want, the u-turn is inevitable. Truss just needs to say she is not for turning first, then she can u-turn.....
i think the pound may be rallying because the markets may be anticipating a fed pivot coming....that will change everything
Haha, the pound is rallying? Thoughts and prayers for Scott P.
Radio 4 PM said the USD was on the descent rather than UKP on the ascent but I haven't checked myself.
Well USD was on the ascent rather than GBP being on the descent all year long, didn't stop people saying the other way around until now though.
Cable is now basically back to where it was before Kwarteng started speaking on Friday.
Oh please stop with the “Cable” - I get it sounds like it’s authoritative city speak but unless you are in that world - and I’ve heard it used here more since Cicero used it the other week than I ever heard it in years of doing currency transactions - it’s not really a thing. It’s exciting to have a new word for something but it’s really silly.
Would Cable convince me? Nah. Not even in Davey's locker.
NEXTA @nexta_tv · 1h #Erdogan asked #Putin to give negotiations with #Ukraine another chance and once again offered mediation by #Ankara, the press service of the #Turkish president reported.
Of course the polls are going to be dire for the Tories this side of Christmas.
Central to Liz Truss’s pitch.
Take on the dragons. Make the difficult policy choices. Be damned with the immediate term popularity contests. Those are for next year, as policy begins to pay off.
When you make difficult and unpopular choices you might expect a hit, but not this kind of hit. This is the kind you don't get back up from.
Talk about misreading the mood of the country though - who the fuck did they think would go for this?
Presumably Liz got so used to the membership fawning over her during the leadership campaign that she genuinely started to believe she was the Second Coming. Of course, in the real world you have to earn political respect. She didn't have it, came up with a mad plan anyway, and then everyone else gave their verdict.
She does appear to have gone a bit loopy, which is odd as a steady, generally competent rise through the ranks would not have suggested the kind of person who produces a half baked plan (their lack of preparation has been obvious in how flummoxed they have been by the reaction) and thinks it is a strength to ignore the mountain of evidence it won't work now anyway, since the damage from the announcement itself will see to that.
So what's the point?
No she hasn't. She said what she was going to do, she said it might be unpopular, she's now doing it.
i think the pound may be rallying because the markets may be anticipating a fed pivot coming....that will change everything
Haha, the pound is rallying? Thoughts and prayers for Scott P.
Radio 4 PM said the USD was on the descent rather than UKP on the ascent but I haven't checked myself.
Well USD was on the ascent rather than GBP being on the descent all year long, didn't stop people saying the other way around until now though.
Cable is now basically back to where it was before Kwarteng started speaking on Friday.
Oh please stop with the “Cable” - I get it sounds like it’s authoritative city speak but unless you are in that world - and I’ve heard it used here more since Cicero used it the other week than I ever heard it in years of doing currency transactions - it’s not really a thing. It’s exciting to have a new word for something but it’s really silly.
I always think Vince when I see it. And I was in the City!
I notice those shrugging their shoulders - Sean F, William G and Barth - are not mentioning the intervention by the Bank of England to stop pension funds collapsing. As for interest rates, we now have inflation. Of course interest are going to go up. It has already started. But the essential argument was whether the Bank should have gone 0.25% higher on Thursday, which now feels rather academic.
My sense is that certain people cannot accept that whilst Sunak's tax rises were in place the markets had confidence in UK borrowing. Once they were reversed and then some, the markets took fright. It goes against everything believed by people of a certain obsessive ideology. That tax cuts equal economic nirvana and tax rises equals economic doom. Reality is a bit more complicated.
I did mention the Bank's action actually. The Bank chose to engage in QT and that is when the markets took fright, but the mini budget got the blame.
The tax cuts are an irrelevant side show to be honest, though they get the political headlines and will carry the news. The Bank selling rather than buying £80bn of gilts while the State had to borrow to pay for energy support etc would have tipped over the market either way, with or without the taxes.
The Bank reversed their decision to engage in QT and the markets stabilised.
Any proof for that?
I mean on a timeline it was the statement that caused the reaction in the markets and I don't know exactly what you are basing this on. Which high level voices in the financial world have been saying that.
On a timeline, the Bank announced it would begin QT only last week.
Though it took some time for people to fully comprehend just what that meant, the sell off of Sterling began immediately, before the Chancellor even began to speak on Friday it had already started falling. Yes the markets overreacted to the Chancellor's statement, but missing what the Bank did is missing a critical piece of the puzzle.
The Bank reversing their QT decision has brought some measure of stability back to the markets.
QE combined with raising interest rates is not a stable policy combination.
The fact that the BoE was forced into it in order to prevent insolvency of pension funds is not a triumph of policy, nor one that can last. The clock is ticking on it already.
There is no stable policy combination though, and you were in favour of Covid lockdowns, this is the end result.
You don't get to spend hundreds of billions for Covid, then hundreds of billions for gas, put it on a national credit card bought off by the Bank of England printing money, then expect that to be unwound without it causing turmoil.
Had the Bank not engaged in QE in the first place, we'd never have been able to afford lockdown, and this reckoning would have happened years ago. You can only kick the can so far.
Oh come on: this isn't the result of Covid lockdowns (except possibly the result of Chinese Covid lockdowns on the world economy).
The economic problems we're suffering from are mostly the same as all countries:
(a) The removal of a very large amount of natural gas from the world market, which is sending gas and electricity prices through the roof.
(b) This is leading to inflation, resulting in pressure on wages, on government costs (the triple lock in the UK making it worse) and on the rate at which the government borrows.
(c) In parallel to this, there are long term secular trends in public expenditure that make it very hard for governments - in particular the issue of an ageing population, and a potentially inverting population pyramid. (See Japan and Italy for the long-term impacts of demographics on economic growth.)
(d) Finally, there are some non-trivial UK-specific headwinds - notably an excessive reliance on consumption for economic growth, high levels of consumer debt and (relatedly) a general mortgaging of the assets of UK PLC.
Its both though.
The removal of the large amount of natural gas has come on top of the rebound post-lockdown that was already seeing prices surge, which leads into your latter points.
And the point is that the public has gotten used to large scale financing, Furlough and now Energy Support, which was never something that could be financed by taxpayers.
Last time this happened, the Bank of England wrote the cheque. They claimed they weren't, but they did.
This time the Bank of England aren't in a position to do so, but the public demand it, and now its financial market turmoil - and it won't just be in the UK either. Not only that, but the Bank is trying to unwind its heady obligations it took on in QE over the past few years via QT - had lockdown not happened, then QT wouldn't now be happening.
Its all interconnected, you can't take one in just isolation.
The ECB hasn't yet begun QT, and after seeing what's happened in the past week in the UK I expect they'll be even more wary of doing so . . . even if the political news is purely about the budget and is ignoring the QE/QT elephant in the room.
The government needs to stand firm IMO. Wait for other news to take over the agenda, which it inevitably will.
Out of interest, why do you think that? Do you think holding firm no matter what is a good thing in itself for example? Do you think the economic plans will work, and if so, why, when the reaction has been so vicious (and clearly unforeseen by government) that it itself has caused problems their own plan will not likely resolve?
As for other news taking over the agenda, yes that happens, but events have impacts. They don't always show themselves immediately, but they can hole you beneath the water line. People have shown willing, in this moment, to back Labour hugely against what the government is doing. We are probably about to have a recession and a winter of economic pain. Even if they recover from this moment a bit, do you not think it will have some lasting consequences?
I have my card records of my 3 Covid vaccination records in my married name but my passport is in my maiden name as I use this for pretty much all purposes.
I'm travelling to the US next month and the US requires proof of vaccination but in the name used in my travel documents. I assume a marriage certificate won't help.
Do I just ask my GP to change the name and, if so, how then do I get a vaccination record in that name in time for my travel. I have only just realised the issue and am leaving on 25th October.
Thanks in advance.
Have you asked the US embassy whether a marriage certificate would solve the problem?
While there's no doubt that the Tories have been the authors of their own misfortune, I would like to put in a word for Starmer. Corbyn wouldn't be getting these sort of opinion poll leads.
Starmer has been much derided my most on here for his boring demeanour etc. etc. However, he's only been leader for 2.5 years. What he's managed to achieve internally in the LP has been hugely impressive, as witnessed at Conference this week. And, slowly but surely, he's getting a hearing, appearing statesmanlike, and increasingly appealing to the public. The number of PB Tories considering voting for him as a safe pair of hands is testament to that. And he hasn't put a foot wrong in the chaos of this week.
After seeing the results of "personality politicians", I would look forward to a dull, boring politician who maybe does serious stuff instead of sliding down zip-wires waving union jacks or doing Maggie photo-shoots on top of tanks. You know, somebody who actually does the job!
There's certainly a lot to be said for basic administrative competence. The odd thing about so many of these pratfalls is how easily avoidable they are.
There's really no way for the public to judge competence in a politician, or even if they can, whether it will translate to a new role like being PM.
No, but one didn't have to be an expert to know that - for example - the "cunning plan" to protect Owen Paterson would go down like a cup of cold sick.
@RedfieldWilton I am sure somebody will correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the 1st subset (tiny sample - mega legit warning) in 7 years that shows Scottish Labour ahead in voting intention for next GE. @AnasSarwar
I have a solution to the crisis Fed and BofE pivot and start printing money again to save the economy and housing market Problem inflation so we need to slow the velocity of money Solution More covid lockdowns We can now print money without generating inflation
What makes you think anyone will obey covid lockdowns at this point? I'd rather go to prison than obey. It amounts to the same thing.
But you can't usefully disobey a lockdown if there's no cinemas, pubs, sport, flights...
You seem to forget that lockdowns involved not being allowed out of our houses for more than two hours a day, police arresting people for being more than five miles away from their place of residence without a reason, the police breaking down people's doors on suspicion they had people from outside their household on the premises, and people being fined five figure sums for hosting raves out in the middle of the woods.
There is more to life than going to bars and shopping.
Yeah well fuck that, I live on Dartmoor and can do whatever the fuck I like in the name of supervising my livestock. Anyone hosting raves out in the middle of the woods should be fined everything they possess and imprisoned for decades, lockdown or not.
While there's no doubt that the Tories have been the authors of their own misfortune, I would like to put in a word for Starmer. Corbyn wouldn't be getting these sort of opinion poll leads.
Starmer has been much derided by most on here (until recently), of all political shades, for being dull, being a remainer and a lefty lawyer, metropolitan elite baggage etc. etc. However, he's only been leader for 2.5 years. What he's managed to achieve internally in the LP has been hugely impressive, as witnessed at Conference this week. He's won the vast majority of the membership (I am one) over. And, slowly but surely, he's getting a hearing, appearing statesmanlike, and increasingly appealing to the public. The number of PB Tories considering voting for him as a safe pair of hands is testament to that. And he hasn't put a foot wrong in the chaos of this week. He's had a good couple of years, and it looks like he'll be rewarded by being the next PM.
Yes, well said. He's not just a passive beneficiary of tory suicide. He's done a great job.
Hinge moment looking back? Holding Batley & Spen. That was so important.
Seem to remember we were talking about it as an Adrian Heath at Oxford, Mark Robins at Forest moment?
Indeed! Mine was the Poulter putt late Saturday in the 2012 Ryder Cup.
Indeed, as FrankBooth says, all those international factors are there, but no other G7 or Western country has sufffered such a rapid loss of confidence, or so suddenly changed its status to that of systemic risk for the IMF.
One simply can't get away from the fact that the reason for that is this particular government, and its choice to talk up the language simultaneously of tax cuts and high borrowing without costing anything.
🗳 Rebel Tories are preparing to vote down sections of the Finance Bill to block the abolition of the 45p rate by supporting amendments that would see it struck out, The Telegraph understands
Ridiculous. That's a tiny part of the problem. The government has chosen to borrow very large amounts and won't provide the figures. Everyone knows the 45p rate is small change.
Yeh, but the politics of the 45p are so utterly awful and tin-eared that as Telegraph are reporting Tory MPs are being shouted at in the street that dropping it is base 1 of getting themselves out of the shit Truss has tipped them in.
Frank is right. 2 or 3 billion tax cut is not what bothered the markets - it was the dumbest budget move for a long time in terms of getting voters to hate you, it triggered a run on Tory popularity but it did not move the markets.
They had waited and waited, through a mourning period, for more detail on the governments hugely expensive bill freeze plans and clearer idea how they would be paid for, on budget day chancellor surprised them with tax cuts, when the markets would have preferred more detail and reassurances government plans would be funded by more than proposed quarter of a trillion of long term borrowing.
Any disagreement to what actually happened so far?
But when you look at the shopping trolley we tried to check out last Friday using the UK Credit Card, the bits and pieces of tax cuts (allegedly) designed to create growth during the imminent economic downturn was not in that trolley alone - in fact the controversial budget is completely dwarfed by the thru life costs for the bill freeze initiative.
If you hated the idea of leading a Tory Party with the highest tax take since Second World War and feared how it plays on election doorsteps, then getting away with tax cuts is a priority for you.
Adding tax cut measures to the already colossal borrowing proposal for bill freeze, allows you to tour radio and TV studios saying “we make no apologies for doing whatever it took to freeze the energy bills for everyone this winter.”
But that’s an eye watering amount of borrowing.
“We make no apologies for doing whatever it took to freeze the energy bills for everyone this winter.”
An understandable plan, isn’t it. Until the UK Credit Card was declined at the tills.
The governments problem with the markets are not remotely over until they adjust that shopping trolley and get it through checkout.
I have a solution to the crisis Fed and BofE pivot and start printing money again to save the economy and housing market Problem inflation so we need to slow the velocity of money Solution More covid lockdowns We can now print money without generating inflation
What makes you think anyone will obey covid lockdowns at this point? I'd rather go to prison than obey. It amounts to the same thing.
But you can't usefully disobey a lockdown if there's no cinemas, pubs, sport, flights...
You could go to other people's houses, have people over. That would have helped my frazzled mental state no end.
Tories have lost the next GE. They need to focus now on damage limitation and doing what's best for the country in the short term. Happily, both of those objectives align by getting rid of Truss.
By what mechanism?
Under 1922 rules she cannot face a VOC for twelve months.
So either the 1922 change the rules or she resigns.
Johnson resigned when he couldn't form a cabinet - Truss has a cabinet full of her supporters.
How?
Is that true, though? If 50 MPs force you to seek a vote of confidence in the Parliamentary Party and you win, they can't do it again for a year. But that doesn't apply to a newly-elected leader, does it? They can put 50 letters in, and remove Truss in the subsequent vote.
Of course, an election under normal rules follows, and the membership would probably then elect Rees-Mogg .
Newton-Dunn tweeted earlier that he'd had the 12-month safety confirmed by Graham Brady. Rules can be changed of course...
Watch this over 2 minute long video of Putin. His left arm doesn't move in the entire time. His right arm is gesticulating most of the time. I don't think it is normal to have your arms behave in such a different manner unless there is something wrong?
Putin the good tsar has a go at the bad boyars for mobilizing the wrong people into the army.
“We must correct mistakes and not allow them going forward,” he says, and everyone who doesn’t meet the criteria “must be sent home.”
Comments
Despite a plethora of parties contesting the election for the 100-seat Saeima only nine look set to win seats.
The latest seat projection from Factum has the New Unity Party of the current Prime Minister winning 28 seats (+20 from the 2018 election). Its allies in the coalition Government, the National Alliance win 10 seats (-3) and the Development For! party 7 (-6). The Conservatives look set to be wiped out losing all 16 seats.
That leaves the coalition on 45 so six short of a majority.
United List look set to win 12 seats (+12 as didn't exist at the 2018 election), the Progressives 11 (+11) and Harmony, the social democratic party 10 (-13). The Union of Greens and Farmers are on 8 seats (-3).
So that's another 41 seats.
The Centrist For Stability! will enter the Saeima with 8 seats leaving Latvia First with 6. Neither grouping existed at the last election.
Is there a possible alternative to a coalition led by New Unity? You could cobble together a near majority with the five centre and centre-left parties but whether they could or would work together requires an expert in Latvian politics (which I'm not).
There's another poll by a group called SKDS which has the governing parties polling just 36.8%.
Only seven parties make the 5% threshold with both For Stability and Latvia First just missing out. That puts 14 seats into play but my take on the polling suggests the anti-coalition parties will win moat of them.
We'll know more or probably less on Saturday.
'Thérèse Coffey is ditching the government’s long-promised white paper on health inequalities, despite the 19-year gap in life expectancy between rich and poor, the Guardian has been told.
The health secretary has decided to not publish a document that was due to set out plans to address the stark inequalities in health that the Covid-19 pandemic exposed.
It was meant to appear by last spring and be a key part of then prime minister Boris Johnson’s declared mission to level up Britain.
It was due to set out “bold action” to narrow the wide inequalities in health outcomes that exist between deprived and well-off areas, between white and BAME populations, and between the north and south of England'
Voters? Not so much.
But, apparently, people on the streets of Stoke are also looking chipper and chanting 'Starmer for Stoke!' in the streets, so the feeling is indeed widespread.
Edit: Or even korma.
Kantor polls have always struggled to find Labour support - they only show once a month, or more, with a similar Lab lead to that of the swingback Opinium. When sun was shining for Tories they produced Lab %s quite a bit lower than the Tory %.
We don't want to discover that she is in charge of the Chiltern Nineties.
Cable is now basically back to where it was before Kwarteng started speaking on Friday.
Hinge moment looking back? Holding Batley & Spen. That was so important.
Fed and BofE pivot and start printing money again to save the economy and housing market
Problem inflation
so we need to slow the velocity of money
Solution More covid lockdowns
We can now print money without generating inflation
When you make difficult and unpopular choices you might expect a hit, but not this kind of hit. This is the kind you don't get back up from.
Talk about misreading the mood of the country though - who the fuck did they think would go for this?
@AndrewCooper__ tells us how Liz Truss has rearranged 10 Downing Street... and kicked her communications team out of the building altogether.
Listen on @GlobalPlayer 📲 https://www.globalplayer.com/podcasts/episodes/7DreUen/
@maitlis | @jonsopel https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1575537409500090369/video/1
Can they fix things? People may be unsure about that. But the perennial cry of opposition 'time for a change', has struck home with a vengeance this time.
Probably because the government are using it as well, but governments cannot pull that shit twice.
Not one of those Woke NATO Tactical Nuclear wars, either. A proper nuclear war, with proper sized nukes.
#CastleBravo
The economic problems we're suffering from are mostly the same as all countries:
(a) The removal of a very large amount of natural gas from the world market, which is sending gas and electricity prices through the roof.
(b) This is leading to inflation, resulting in pressure on wages, on government costs (the triple lock in the UK making it worse) and on the rate at which the government borrows.
(c) In parallel to this, there are long term secular trends in public expenditure that make it very hard for governments - in particular the issue of an ageing population, and a potentially inverting population pyramid. (See Japan and Italy for the long-term impacts of demographics on economic growth.)
(d) Finally, there are some non-trivial UK-specific headwinds - notably an excessive reliance on consumption for economic growth, high levels of consumer debt and (relatedly) a general mortgaging of the assets of UK PLC.
The chemistry is simple. The device design - I would go for a 2 point initiated single stager. Levitated pit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJchseAmfmw
Solution ? Just pretend it's not there.
Fuck you Coffey. That is eight reports that you've censored. Fucking eight.
Benefit claimant deaths,
Benefit cap effects
DWP accessibility
Universal credit
Benefit sanctions
Carers allowance
Thérèse would be welcome in Putin's cabinet.
Personally I've always been in favour of turning, especially when I'm careening at high speed toward a brick wall or cliff edge.
Help from the PB Brains Trust please.
I have my card records of my 3 Covid vaccination records in my married name but my passport is in my maiden name as I use this for pretty much all purposes.
I'm travelling to the US next month and the US requires proof of vaccination but in the name used in my travel documents. I assume a marriage certificate won't help.
Do I just ask my GP to change the name and, if so, how then do I get a vaccination record in that name in time for my travel. I have only just realised the issue and am leaving on 25th October.
Thanks in advance.
*real identity a closely guarded secret.
So what's the point?
There is more to life than going to bars and shopping.
We can I think expect that there will be a good deal of tactical voting at the next election. That would suggest a figure in excess of 114, but I suppose SKS would take your figure anyway.
No one in physics dares say so, but the race to invent new particles is pointless
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/26/physics-particles-physicists
Slab 30%
SNP 23%
Con 12%
LD 9%
Wow!! 🌹
(ducks banhammer)
NEXTA
@nexta_tv
·
1h
#Erdogan asked #Putin to give negotiations with #Ukraine another chance and once again offered mediation by #Ankara, the press service of the #Turkish president reported.
The removal of the large amount of natural gas has come on top of the rebound post-lockdown that was already seeing prices surge, which leads into your latter points.
And the point is that the public has gotten used to large scale financing, Furlough and now Energy Support, which was never something that could be financed by taxpayers.
Last time this happened, the Bank of England wrote the cheque. They claimed they weren't, but they did.
This time the Bank of England aren't in a position to do so, but the public demand it, and now its financial market turmoil - and it won't just be in the UK either. Not only that, but the Bank is trying to unwind its heady obligations it took on in QE over the past few years via QT - had lockdown not happened, then QT wouldn't now be happening.
Its all interconnected, you can't take one in just isolation.
The ECB hasn't yet begun QT, and after seeing what's happened in the past week in the UK I expect they'll be even more wary of doing so . . . even if the political news is purely about the budget and is ignoring the QE/QT elephant in the room.
As for other news taking over the agenda, yes that happens, but events have impacts. They don't always show themselves immediately, but they can hole you beneath the water line. People have shown willing, in this moment, to back Labour hugely against what the government is doing. We are probably about to have a recession and a winter of economic pain. Even if they recover from this moment a bit, do you not think it will have some lasting consequences?
Some mistake I think.
One simply can't get away from the fact that the reason for that is this particular government, and its choice to talk up the language simultaneously of tax cuts and high borrowing without costing anything.
They had waited and waited, through a mourning period, for more detail on the governments hugely expensive bill freeze plans and clearer idea how they would be paid for, on budget day chancellor surprised them with tax cuts, when the markets would have preferred more detail and reassurances government plans would be funded by more than proposed quarter of a trillion of long term borrowing.
Any disagreement to what actually happened so far?
But when you look at the shopping trolley we tried to check out last Friday using the UK Credit Card, the bits and pieces of tax cuts (allegedly) designed to create growth during the imminent economic downturn was not in that trolley alone - in fact the controversial budget is completely dwarfed by the thru life costs for the bill freeze initiative.
If you hated the idea of leading a Tory Party with the highest tax take since Second World War and feared how it plays on election doorsteps, then getting away with tax cuts is a priority for you.
Adding tax cut measures to the already colossal borrowing proposal for bill freeze, allows you to tour radio and TV studios saying “we make no apologies for doing whatever it took to freeze the energy bills for everyone this winter.”
But that’s an eye watering amount of borrowing.
“We make no apologies for doing whatever it took to freeze the energy bills for everyone this winter.”
An understandable plan, isn’t it. Until the UK Credit Card was declined at the tills.
The governments problem with the markets are not remotely over until they adjust that shopping trolley and get it through checkout.
This suggests lots of people saying away or staying for less time.
The party will point to the Wed RMT strike, but.... https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1575553979286958080
Putin the good tsar has a go at the bad boyars for mobilizing the wrong people into the army.
“We must correct mistakes and not allow them going forward,” he says, and everyone who doesn’t meet the criteria “must be sent home.”
Shows the Kremlin is anxious about the backlash
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1575539391849672704