Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
As with Boris Johnson and Theresa May the 1922 don't need to change the rules if a sufficient number of MPs (ie a majority of Tory MPs) decide they want the leader gone.
'LIZ Truss has urged the Scottish Government to replicate her government's tax-slashing mini-budget - saying it could help "turbocharge" the economy north of the Border. [...]
Responding to the PM's comments, the First Minister tweeted: "Hard to know what to say to the suggestion I should mirror policies (tax cuts for richest) that have sunk the £, crashed the mortgage market, pushed pensions to the brink, imperilled public services & forced a Bank of England bailout. What planet is the PM living on?"'
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?
As an aside, I think pretty much all governing parties are going to be hit by pretty serious headwinds right now.
Across the developed world - the UK, the US, Germany, Japan, etc. - you are seeing a combination rising energy prices, scarcity of parts for products, and rising interest rates.
It's a cocktail pretty much guaranteed to guaranteed to squeeze disposable incomes and lead to recessions. Even the US, despite being a (slight) energy exporters is likely to see one. While those countries that are large energy importers are being hit even harder.
But you know who's really getting screwed? People in poor countries, which simply can't afford to outbid the West for coal or gas supplies. The riots you are seeing in Pakistan and other places are because that cocktail might make us in the West feel slightly queezy, but it's disastrous for people in poorer places. (And it really doesn't matter how little you rely on Russian energy, the impact is much the same.)
In time, the world will adjust. Either we'll find alternative energy sources to Russia (as we did to OPEC in the 1980s), or Putin will be defeated, and Russian energy (one way or another) will find a way to get into global markets. China will -inevitably and eventually- abandon its ruinous zero Covid strategy.
And the world will be in a better place; quite possibly quite a lot better place.
The Western boom of the 80s and 90s was at least partly a consequence of countries weaning themselves off cheap Saudi oil, and replacing it with North Sea or Alaska or nuclear. Why shouldn't we see similar this time around?
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?
And the food riots that are coming when she slashes benefits in real terms
I'm already hearing that food banks are receiving fewer donations - heck the container at the Aldi I was in on Tuesday night had 1 box of cornflakes in it and nothing else..
One reassuring thing about these polls is they show the British electorate is not yet as divided on partisan lines as America. That kind of polling would be impossible there. Only really Scotland (and NI obvs) where the divide is more sticky.
In N Ireland, no one can vote for Liz Truss or her party. The same is true of SKS and the LDs. You can only vote by proxy and a few of those proxies are near certifiable loons of the worst biblical kind.
Which is why very few recent PMs give a d*mn about N Ireland
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?
And the food riots that are coming when she slashes benefits in real terms
That's the kind of thing I was thinking of. Civil disorder played quite a large part in the demise of Thatcher.
And I hate to say it but if the consequences of this policy are followed through I wonder about the impact on crime and how safe people will be able to feel going about their business.
As a reminder to all, the difficult decisions taken by the incoming Thatcher government in 1979 were:
(a) to immediately raise the rate of VAT to 15%, adding around 5% to prices. (b) to end the double lock on pensions (earnings vs inflation), and move it simply to inflation.
They did these things because they recognised that - while they were unpopular - there were substantial costs associated with allowing the budget deficit to grow ever wider.
One reassuring thing about these polls is they show the British electorate is not yet as divided on partisan lines as America. That kind of polling would be impossible there. Only really Scotland (and NI obvs) where the divide is more sticky.
In N Ireland, no one can vote for Liz Truss or her party. The same is true of SKS and the LDs. You can only vote by proxy and a few of those proxies are near certifiable loons of the worst biblical kind.
Which is why very few recent PMs give a d*mn about N Ireland
Feels almost like it's a foreign country at times 😏
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
As with Boris Johnson and Theresa May the 1922 don't need to change the rules if a sufficient number of MPs (ie a majority of Tory MPs) decide they want the leader gone.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?
And the food riots that are coming when she slashes benefits in real terms
I'm already hearing that food banks are receiving fewer donations - heck the container at the Aldi I was in on Tuesday night had 1 box of cornflakes in it and nothing else..
My local food bank is already worried and we aren't even in October, never mind the Christmas period.
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
Alternatively, evidence of mass scale tactical voting intent, where the Lib Dems are still working to recover from the damage of the Coalition, and Labour is therefore the weapon of choice for anti-Tories in the vast majority of Conservative-held seats.
Hmmm, I think I side more with @RochdalePioneers take, especially given that we’ve had a couple of years of Labour and the LD’s giving each other seats on a relatively equal basis.
I suppose you’re correct on the ‘vast majority’ front but surely it’s more likely that the Lib Dems would get about 50-60 seats if the Tories polled this low, than to be in the 20s-30s?
I just can’t see the South West going as red as that map.
God alone knows, we're all speculating about an unprecedented massacre here.
I'm still of the opinion - at the moment - that the grey vote will drift back towards the Cons and they won't poll under 30%. No matter how wretched their situation, they've never polled sub-30% in any GE in their entire history.
Show me polls with Labour up into the 60s and the Tories falling well behind with pensioners and I might reconsider.
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
As with Boris Johnson and Theresa May the 1922 don't need to change the rules if a sufficient number of MPs (ie a majority of Tory MPs) decide they want the leader gone.
12 month rule?
Doesn't matter, Theresa May and Boris Johnson were both protected by the 12 month rule and were gone 5 and 1 months in of their respective 12 month safe period.
In the thread header, the Labour seat total is woefully understated in the EC prediction based on the YouGov poll. And the Conservative seat total is double what it should be.
The YouGov Scottish sub-sample breaks 38% Lab, SNP 44%, 10% Con, 2% Libs, 4% Green. Our SNP posters are always telling us that only YouGov properly weight their Scottish sample, so let's use that sub sample in the EC model.
The Scottish seat allocation from EC is then SNP 45, Lab 12, Others 0.
In the overall EC model, using the GB totals plus those splits for Scotland, it's then Lab 578, SNP 45, LD 5, Green 1, Plaid 1, Con 1.
One reassuring thing about these polls is they show the British electorate is not yet as divided on partisan lines as America. That kind of polling would be impossible there. Only really Scotland (and NI obvs) where the divide is more sticky.
In N Ireland, no one can vote for Liz Truss or her party. The same is true of SKS and the LDs. You can only vote by proxy and a few of those proxies are near certifiable loons of the worst biblical kind.
Which is why very few recent PMs give a d*mn about N Ireland
Don't the Tories put up candidates in NI?
Wiki: The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.
But on those levels you'd be better off voting for Count Binface or Lord Sutch.
These polls are funny. But they are also a little scary
This is not a mood shift, it feels more like voter panic. Like the British electorate can sense deep deep trouble ahead. Existential trouble
This is Ask The Audience and the reply is OMFG AAAAAAAGH
The British public are sensing that truss is shit. We all knew it apart from the usual loons on here. Even HFUYD didn’t support her - that should have been a massive red flag
In the thread header, the Labour seat total is woefully understated in the EC prediction based on the YouGov poll. And the Conservative seat total is double what it should be.
The YouGov Scottish sub-sample breaks 38% Lab, SNP 44%, 10% Con, 2% Libs, 4% Green. Our SNP posters are always telling us that only YouGov properly weight their Scottish sample, so let's use that sub sample in the EC model.
The Scottish seat allocation from EC is then SNP 45, Lab 12, Others 0.
In the overall EC model, using the GB totals plus those splits for Scotland, it's then Lab 578, SNP 45, LD 5, Green 1, Plaid 1, Con 1.
So significant loss of SNP seats to Labour too
If loss of 6% of seats is 'significant' in HYUFDomathics, what do you call 100% loss of seats? Trivial?
As an aside, I think pretty much all governing parties are going to be hit by pretty serious headwinds right now.
Across the developed world - the UK, the US, Germany, Japan, etc. - you are seeing a combination rising energy prices, scarcity of parts for products, and rising interest rates.
It's a cocktail pretty much guaranteed to guaranteed to squeeze disposable incomes and lead to recessions. Even the US, despite being a (slight) energy exporters is likely to see one. While those countries that are large energy importers are being hit even harder.
But you know who's really getting screwed? People in poor countries, which simply can't afford to outbid the West for coal or gas supplies. The riots you are seeing in Pakistan and other places are because that cocktail might make us in the West feel slightly queezy, but it's disastrous for people in poorer places. (And it really doesn't matter how little you rely on Russian energy, the impact is much the same.)
In time, the world will adjust. Either we'll find alternative energy sources to Russia (as we did to OPEC in the 1980s), or Putin will be defeated, and Russian energy (one way or another) will find a way to get into global markets. China will -inevitably and eventually- abandon its ruinous zero Covid strategy.
And the world will be in a better place; quite possibly quite a lot better place.
The Western boom of the 80s and 90s was at least partly a consequence of countries weaning themselves off cheap Saudi oil, and replacing it with North Sea or Alaska or nuclear. Why shouldn't we see similar this time around?
As a reminder to all, the difficult decisions taken by the incoming Thatcher government in 1979 were:
(a) to immediately raise the rate of VAT to 15%, adding around 5% to prices. (b) to end the double lock on pensions (earnings vs inflation), and move it simply to inflation.
They did these things because they recognised that - while they were unpopular - there were substantial costs associated with allowing the budget deficit to grow ever wider.
Truss is a fake Thatcherite. People like Clarke, Heseltine and Major who had senior roles under Thatcher and were respected by her are completely sidelined by bluekip.
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
As with Boris Johnson and Theresa May the 1922 don't need to change the rules if a sufficient number of MPs (ie a majority of Tory MPs) decide they want the leader gone.
12 month rule?
Doesn't matter, Theresa May and Boris Johnson were both protected by the 12 month rule and were gone 5 and 1 months in of their respective 12 month safe period.
Got you.
But wouldn't that require her Cabinet to turn on her? I right bunch of turkeys though they may be, that lot won't be voting for their personal Christmases.
So, if Truss goes, will King-over-the-water Boris return? Are the Tories mad enough to try?
Tactically, it might be their best move. For some inexplicable reason Boris is popular in the country, is a known face to the public and has the advantage of being shoved out of the way for LizT
These polls are funny. But they are also a little scary
This is not a mood shift, it feels more like voter panic. Like the British electorate can sense deep deep trouble ahead. Existential trouble
This is Ask The Audience and the reply is OMFG AAAAAAAGH
The British public are sensing that truss is shit. We all knew it apart from the usual loons on here. Even HFUYD didn’t support her - that should have been a massive red flag
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
As with Boris Johnson and Theresa May the 1922 don't need to change the rules if a sufficient number of MPs (ie a majority of Tory MPs) decide they want the leader gone.
12 month rule?
Doesn't matter, Theresa May and Boris Johnson were both protected by the 12 month rule and were gone 5 and 1 months in of their respective 12 month safe period.
Even if they can't remove her as leader of the Tory party they can most certainly remove her as PM. She then looks like even more of a plonker than she already does if she does not resign as Tory leader.
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
As with Boris Johnson and Theresa May the 1922 don't need to change the rules if a sufficient number of MPs (ie a majority of Tory MPs) decide they want the leader gone.
12 month rule?
Doesn't matter, Theresa May and Boris Johnson were both protected by the 12 month rule and were gone 5 and 1 months in of their respective 12 month safe period.
Got you.
But wouldn't that require her Cabinet to turn on her? I right bunch of turkeys though they may be, that lot won't be voting for their personal Christmases.
A former Tory MP explained the 12 month safe period as being a lot like abolishing gravity.
You can abolish it but you get shoved out of a window from the 10th floor then it is over for you.
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
Alternatively, evidence of mass scale tactical voting intent, where the Lib Dems are still working to recover from the damage of the Coalition, and Labour is therefore the weapon of choice for anti-Tories in the vast majority of Conservative-held seats.
Hmmm, I think I side more with @RochdalePioneers take, especially given that we’ve had a couple of years of Labour and the LD’s giving each other seats on a relatively equal basis.
I suppose you’re correct on the ‘vast majority’ front but surely it’s more likely that the Lib Dems would get about 50-60 seats if the Tories polled this low, than to be in the 20s-30s?
I just can’t see the South West going as red as that map.
God alone knows, we're all speculating about an unprecedented massacre here.
I'm still of the opinion - at the moment - that the grey vote will drift back towards the Cons and they won't poll under 30%. No matter how wretched their situation, they've never polled sub-30% in any GE in their entire history.
Have they ever screwed up as badly as this in their entire history, though?
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
Just out of interest, who would need to change the rules to exclude the membership in the country from the process?
... in a way that is not open to legal challenge.
As I keep boringly saying, legal challengeability is irrelevant provided you can hurry things along and get a new candidate to the Palace with evidence of commanding a majority in the House. Courts are not going to tell the country who is or isn't PM just because Col and Mrs Miggins come along moaning that they have been cheated of their £25 worth.
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1575535640078389268
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.
Once mortgage deals were being pulled and mortgage interest rates soared it was all over
So can we never increase interest rates again? The government is supposed to fix your mortgage as well as your heating bill as well as any occasion you can’t get to work?
It’s just delusional. Truss deserves no sympathy but does anyone believe it will be better for SKS ? This country is becoming ungovernable. We all seem to think the world owes us a living.
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
Just out of interest, who would need to change the rules to exclude the membership in the country from the process?
... in a way that is not open to legal challenge.
As I keep boringly saying, legal challengeability is irrelevant provided you can hurry things along and get a new candidate to the Palace with evidence of commanding a majority in the House. Courts are not going to tell the country who is or isn't PM just because Col and Mrs Miggins come along moaning that they have been cheated of their £25 worth.
I was just asking if anyone knows what the rules were about changing the rules.
Sorry if it's well known common knowledge and I have missed it.
With apologies to @ydoethur for quoting Sam Freedman, I liked this:
"This is voters' first impression of Truss. It's like a new boss has taken over your firm and pissed in the water cooler at an all-staff meeting. You're never going to recover from that."
These polls are funny. But they are also a little scary
This is not a mood shift, it feels more like voter panic. Like the British electorate can sense deep deep trouble ahead. Existential trouble
This is Ask The Audience and the reply is OMFG AAAAAAAGH
It will be like having a baby. We will often find ourselves switching from panic - it's the end of my life, I’ll never see a pub again! - to total rapture - my existence will have new purpose, I will be the best dad possible! And that feeling is just like my thoughts on Trusserdammerung.
I think it will come down to the basic problem that, even if the strategy was the correct one, the manner of the delivery and the aftermath was a catastrophic political misjudgement on a scale we have never witnessed before.
This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history
Yep, and almost bound to make things worse for the party.
Well, I did warn 'em.
It's going to be like a wedding where everyone has discovered the bride has been exuberantly shagging the best man for several months, and only the groom is unaware
I can beat that. A wedding reception was held in a marquee at a local pub by me where the bride got so drunk she hooked up and went home with ... the groom's son. Yes, not a joke or porn story, quite literally her own stepson, on her wedding night.
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1575535640078389268
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.
Once mortgage deals were being pulled and mortgage interest rates soared it was all over
So can we never increase interest rates again? The government is supposed to fix your mortgage as well as your heating bill as well as any occasion you can’t get to work?
It’s just delusional. Truss deserves no sympathy but does anyone believe it will be better for SKS ? This country is becoming ungovernable. We all seem to think the world owes us a living.
You can't run an economy based on property speculation. Sooner or later it was all going to go to shit - the one saving grace is that it looks like it's going to happen on the watch of the same party that initiated the failed experiment four decades ago.
An important difference between the Government and the Opposition is that one will certain scrape together all of the remaining wealth and invite plutocrats to cart it off as loot, whereas the other won't. For that reason alone Starmer deserves to have a crack at putting this mess right.
I think it will come down to the basic problem that, even if the strategy was the correct one, the manner of the delivery and the aftermath was a catastrophic political misjudgement on a scale we have never witnessed before.
If only they'd put a pretty little ribbon on the dog turd before flinging it in my face
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1575535640078389268
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.
Once mortgage deals were being pulled and mortgage interest rates soared it was all over
So can we never increase interest rates again? The government is supposed to fix your mortgage as well as your heating bill as well as any occasion you can’t get to work?
It’s just delusional. Truss deserves no sympathy but does anyone believe it will be better for SKS ? This country is becoming ungovernable. We all seem to think the world owes us a living.
Well said.
Histrionics about interest rate going to 4% show everything that is wrong with this country. We need a big dose of hardcore reality.
This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history
Yep, and almost bound to make things worse for the party.
Well, I did warn 'em.
It's going to be like a wedding where everyone has discovered the bride has been exuberantly shagging the best man for several months, and only the groom is unaware
I can beat that. A wedding reception was held in a marquee at a local pub by me where the bride got so drunk she hooked up and went home with ... the groom's son. Yes, not a joke or porn story, quite literally her own stepson, on her wedding night.
One reassuring thing about these polls is they show the British electorate is not yet as divided on partisan lines as America. That kind of polling would be impossible there. Only really Scotland (and NI obvs) where the divide is more sticky.
In N Ireland, no one can vote for Liz Truss or her party. The same is true of SKS and the LDs. You can only vote by proxy and a few of those proxies are near certifiable loons of the worst biblical kind.
Which is why very few recent PMs give a d*mn about N Ireland
Don't the Tories put up candidates in NI?
Wiki: The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.
But on those levels you'd be better off voting for Count Binface or Lord Sutch.
Just imagine being a Tory MP having to vote through the top rate tax cut and then to green light cuts to services and real term cuts to working age benefits .
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1575535640078389268
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.
Once mortgage deals were being pulled and mortgage interest rates soared it was all over
So can we never increase interest rates again? The government is supposed to fix your mortgage as well as your heating bill as well as any occasion you can’t get to work?
It’s just delusional. Truss deserves no sympathy but does anyone believe it will be better for SKS ? This country is becoming ungovernable. We all seem to think the world owes us a living.
You can't run an economy based on property speculation. Sooner or later it was all going to go to shit - the one saving grace is that it looks like it's going to happen on the watch of the same party that initiated the failed experiment four decades ago.
An important difference between the Government and the Opposition is that one will certain scrape together all of the remaining wealth and invite plutocrats to cart it off as loot, whereas the other won't.
For that reason alone Starmer deserves to have a crack at putting this mess right.
He’s going to get his turn. No doubt about that now. But the country, led by the BBC, is simply delusional and reality is going to hurt.
Truss is actually right that ultra low interest rates have favoured the haves at the cost of the have nots. She was stupidly wrong to cut taxes for the better off, of course, that was political suicide. But she is also right to say the status quo is not really an option.
This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history
Yep, and almost bound to make things worse for the party.
Well, I did warn 'em.
It's going to be like a wedding where everyone has discovered the bride has been exuberantly shagging the best man for several months, and only the groom is unaware
I can beat that. A wedding reception was held in a marquee at a local pub by me where the bride got so drunk she hooked up and went home with ... the groom's son. Yes, not a joke or porn story, quite literally her own stepson, on her wedding night.
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
I don't know what "5" here refers to, but on the point of so few Tory voters switching to LD, I think it's because it is such a sudden switch. A kind of "I've had it with the Tories, I'm going to vote for the other lot" effect, which in the eyes of a lot of people just means Labour. If the Tory VI figures do remain at this low level, I would expect a lot of the switchers to start thinking seriously i) which party is better Lab or LD for them, and ii) if they are going to vote tactically or not, and if so what is the tactical vote where they vote.
Just imagine being a Tory MP having to vote through the top rate tax cut and then to green light cuts to services and real term cuts to working age benefits .
Good luck explaining that to the public .
I really don't think it will happen now.
YouGov have just finally put the nail in the coffin.
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1575535640078389268
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.
Once mortgage deals were being pulled and mortgage interest rates soared it was all over
So can we never increase interest rates again? The government is supposed to fix your mortgage as well as your heating bill as well as any occasion you can’t get to work?
It’s just delusional. Truss deserves no sympathy but does anyone believe it will be better for SKS ? This country is becoming ungovernable. We all seem to think the world owes us a living.
Well said.
Histrionics about interest rate going to 4% show everything that is wrong with this country. We need a big dose of hardcore reality.
The perception is that they were going to four, now they are going to six because Liz.
There's a story in an Anthony Burgess I think novel about a young bloke in Singapore who used to walk through a park on his way to work and give biscuits to the monkeys. One day he forgot the biscuits and the monkeys tore him to bits.
So, if Truss goes, will King-over-the-water Boris return? Are the Tories mad enough to try?
Tactically, it might be their best move. For some inexplicable reason Boris is popular in the country, is a known face to the public and has the advantage of being shoved out of the way for LizT
Boris is not popular in the country. He might be less unpopular than Liz Truss, but that's not saying much.
The most effective means of showing contrition would be for Tory MPs to go crawling in penitence to Rishi, and see if he can at least rescue half of them from the wrath of the electorate.
This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history
Yep, and almost bound to make things worse for the party.
Well, I did warn 'em.
It's going to be like a wedding where everyone has discovered the bride has been exuberantly shagging the best man for several months, and only the groom is unaware
I can beat that. A wedding reception was held in a marquee at a local pub by me where the bride got so drunk she hooked up and went home with ... the groom's son. Yes, not a joke or porn story, quite literally her own stepson, on her wedding night.
This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history
Yep, and almost bound to make things worse for the party.
Well, I did warn 'em.
It's going to be like a wedding where everyone has discovered the bride has been exuberantly shagging the best man for several months, and only the groom is unaware
I can beat that. A wedding reception was held in a marquee at a local pub by me where the bride got so drunk she hooked up and went home with ... the groom's son. Yes, not a joke or porn story, quite literally her own stepson, on her wedding night.
Did she put the film on Pornhub for the greater gratification of TSE's favourite simile?
This is deffo an outlier. I mean, I love it, but it's definitely an outlier.
It is. But with a pair of other polls giving leads of 19 and 21 points, that is likely the real level the Tories have collapsed to. And as we all keep pointing out there is nothing ahead but pain and more pain.
Funny old world innit. When the Tories had a poll on 50pc. Noone believed it, now Labour is on 54 pc everyone bar me believes this Just saying...
When the Tories had a poll on 50pc - when was that?
The thing is an unexplained outlier is probably an outlier. This poll is entirely explicable in terms of Keir at the funeral, Keir at the conference, Kwasi at the funeral, and Lizzie being Lizzie.
⚡️At an emergency meeting of the National Security Council tomorrow, fundamental decisions for Ukraine will be made, - Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security Council.
One reassuring thing about these polls is they show the British electorate is not yet as divided on partisan lines as America. That kind of polling would be impossible there. Only really Scotland (and NI obvs) where the divide is more sticky.
In N Ireland, no one can vote for Liz Truss or her party. The same is true of SKS and the LDs. You can only vote by proxy and a few of those proxies are near certifiable loons of the worst biblical kind.
Which is why very few recent PMs give a d*mn about N Ireland
Don't the Tories put up candidates in NI?
Wiki: The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.
But on those levels you'd be better off voting for Count Binface or Lord Sutch.
Hmm, interesting word order. Same happened in Scotland when the Unionist Party was taken over.
I liked this bit:
"After failed calls for the UUP to disband and join the Conservatives, the Conservatives in Northern Ireland were relaunched as NI Conservatives on 14 June 2012."
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1575535640078389268
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.
Once mortgage deals were being pulled and mortgage interest rates soared it was all over
So can we never increase interest rates again? The government is supposed to fix your mortgage as well as your heating bill as well as any occasion you can’t get to work?
It’s just delusional. Truss deserves no sympathy but does anyone believe it will be better for SKS ? This country is becoming ungovernable. We all seem to think the world owes us a living.
This reminds me of the saying 'the people get the politicians they deserve'.
Funny old world innit. When the Tories had a poll on 50pc. Noone believed it, now Labour is on 54 pc everyone bar me believes this Just saying...
When the Tories had a poll on 50pc - when was that?
The thing is an unexplained outlier is probably an outlier. This poll is entirely explicable in terms of Keir at the funeral, Keir at the conference, Kwasi at the funeral, and Lizzie being Lizzie.
There was a run of polls with the Conservatives about 50% during Lockdown One. The thing is, that really was a crazy time in ways that favoured the government but couldn't last.
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
Vote down the Budget....
My hope and expectation is sufficient conservative mps vote with the opposition to reject the mini budget and take whatever consequences follow on
However, ideally Truss will be out even sooner
Almost none of the announced measures have been put to Parliament. So as soon as conference is over and the charnel house reopens, the government has to table the legislation for an early vote.
I entirely agree - they have to vote this down. Ordinarily the threat of voting it down would make them change tack. But this lot's sneering arrogance suggests they genuinely believe they are correct.
Even if they threaten - or enact - the withdrawal of the whip, is that a deterrent to people who (a) will get wiped out and (b) are supported by their voters and probably their associations?
What happens to the government's sneering when it runs out of road? She can't keep saying "I am right" when she can't get her budget through the Commons.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?
This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history
Yep, and almost bound to make things worse for the party.
Well, I did warn 'em.
It's going to be like a wedding where everyone has discovered the bride has been exuberantly shagging the best man for several months, and only the groom is unaware
I can beat that. A wedding reception was held in a marquee at a local pub by me where the bride got so drunk she hooked up and went home with ... the groom's son. Yes, not a joke or porn story, quite literally her own stepson, on her wedding night.
The wedding reception was held by you?
Sympathies. Must have taken a lorra couselling to work through that one.
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
Vote down the Budget....
My hope and expectation is sufficient conservative mps vote with the opposition to reject the mini budget and take whatever consequences follow on
However, ideally Truss will be out even sooner
Almost none of the announced measures have been put to Parliament. So as soon as conference is over and the charnel house reopens, the government has to table the legislation for an early vote.
I entirely agree - they have to vote this down. Ordinarily the threat of voting it down would make them change tack. But this lot's sneering arrogance suggests they genuinely believe they are correct.
Even if they threaten - or enact - the withdrawal of the whip, is that a deterrent to people who (a) will get wiped out and (b) are supported by their voters and probably their associations?
What happens to the government's sneering when it runs out of road? She can't keep saying "I am right" when she can't get her budget through the Commons.
These polls are funny. But they are also a little scary
This is not a mood shift, it feels more like voter panic. Like the British electorate can sense deep deep trouble ahead. Existential trouble
This is Ask The Audience and the reply is OMFG AAAAAAAGH
The British public are sensing that truss is shit. We all knew it apart from the usual loons on here. Even HFUYD didn’t support her - that should have been a massive red flag
Yes. I think it's the self-inflicted nature of it that's turned some probable pain for the Tories into a catastrophe. People are generally understanding if annoyed by hard times. But by putting forth a budget that looks to the layman (and plenty of experts) that it tipped markets over the edge they've basically stuck a massive sign on their foreheads saying 'Blame Us For Your Mortgage Rocketing' and then to boot made noises that they'll also be to blame for another round of austerity. The average radio caller just found the Truss/Kwarteng budget inexplicable as well as the failure to U-turn after it became clear it had provoked an adverse response. And with good reason - what good is a tax cut if your mortgage is about to rocket by £500 a month or the mortgage you'd saved up for has been pulled and now you can't get one?
One of the single worst decisions in political history.
⚡️At an emergency meeting of the National Security Council tomorrow, fundamental decisions for Ukraine will be made, - Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security Council.
So, if Truss goes, will King-over-the-water Boris return? Are the Tories mad enough to try?
Tactically, it might be their best move. For some inexplicable reason Boris is popular in the country, is a known face to the public and has the advantage of being shoved out of the way for LizT
Boris is not popular in the country. He might be less unpopular than Liz Truss, but that's not saying much.
The most effective means of showing contrition would be for Tory MPs to go crawling in penitence to Rishi, and see if he can at least rescue half of them from the wrath of the electorate.
Downside with Rishi is it looks like they’re saying to the members “yeah, we know you preferred this batshit loon to Rishi, but screw you we need Rishi anyway LOL.”
I appreciate what the members want is not necessarily at the forefront of the Tory Party’s needs right now. But at the same time it’s a delicate balancing act so that they don’t piss even more people off (inc the people who canvass and leaflet etc).
The best thing politically for Truss/Kwarteng might be to adopt the plan a few people on here have suggested of keeping the 45% abolition but raising the higher rate to 43% and increasing the threshold while getting rid of the allowance distortions. That way she could show she was listening without it being a complete humiliation.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?
⚡️At an emergency meeting of the National Security Council tomorrow, fundamental decisions for Ukraine will be made, - Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security Council.
In the thread header, the Labour seat total is woefully understated in the EC prediction based on the YouGov poll. And the Conservative seat total is double what it should be.
The YouGov Scottish sub-sample breaks 38% Lab, SNP 44%, 10% Con, 2% Libs, 4% Green. Our SNP posters are always telling us that only YouGov properly weight their Scottish sample, so let's use that sub sample in the EC model.
The Scottish seat allocation from EC is then SNP 45, Lab 12, Others 0.
In the overall EC model, using the GB totals plus those splits for Scotland, it's then Lab 578, SNP 45, LD 5, Green 1, Plaid 1, Con 1.
So significant loss of SNP seats to Labour too
Yes. The loss of a handful of SNP seats to Labour was the first thing that jumped out at me in an EC model that, as a mere aside, happened to have the Conservative Party on 1 seat.
One reassuring thing about these polls is they show the British electorate is not yet as divided on partisan lines as America. That kind of polling would be impossible there. Only really Scotland (and NI obvs) where the divide is more sticky.
In N Ireland, no one can vote for Liz Truss or her party. The same is true of SKS and the LDs. You can only vote by proxy and a few of those proxies are near certifiable loons of the worst biblical kind.
Which is why very few recent PMs give a d*mn about N Ireland
They get very few votes, but the Tories generally stand in NI these days.
The best thing politically for Truss/Kwarteng might be to adopt the plan a few people on here have suggested of keeping the 45% abolition but raising the higher rate to 43% and increasing the threshold while getting rid of the allowance distortions. That way she could show she was listening without it being a complete humiliation.
They can announce whatever plan they want. Their credibility is shot. There is no way back
Take on the dragons. Make the difficult policy choices. Be damned with the immediate term popularity contests. Those are for next year, as policy begins to pay off.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 1h before you all die laughing remember this no10 clownshow will tomorrow be sitting in no10 figuring out what to say about *Putin/nuclear weapons* in between devising shit media gimmicks to save their asses
Comments
Telegraph
The moves have already started I suspect.
I'm on at 60.
This is not a mood shift, it feels more like voter panic. Like the British electorate can sense deep deep trouble ahead. Existential trouble
This is Ask The Audience and the reply is OMFG AAAAAAAGH
'LIZ Truss has urged the Scottish Government to replicate her government's tax-slashing mini-budget - saying it could help "turbocharge" the economy north of the Border. [...]
Responding to the PM's comments, the First Minister tweeted: "Hard to know what to say to the suggestion I should mirror policies (tax cuts for richest) that have sunk the £, crashed the mortgage market, pushed pensions to the brink, imperilled public services & forced a Bank of England bailout. What planet is the PM living on?"'
Across the developed world - the UK, the US, Germany, Japan, etc. - you are seeing a combination rising energy prices, scarcity of parts for products, and rising interest rates.
It's a cocktail pretty much guaranteed to guaranteed to squeeze disposable incomes and lead to recessions. Even the US, despite being a (slight) energy exporters is likely to see one. While those countries that are large energy
importers are being hit even harder.
But you know who's really getting screwed? People in poor countries, which simply can't afford to outbid the West for coal or gas supplies. The riots you are seeing in Pakistan and other places are because that cocktail might make us in the West feel slightly queezy, but it's disastrous for people in poorer places. (And it really doesn't matter how little you rely on Russian energy, the impact is much the same.)
In time, the world will adjust. Either we'll find alternative energy sources to Russia (as we did to OPEC in the 1980s), or Putin will be defeated, and Russian energy (one way or another) will find a way to get into global markets. China will -inevitably and eventually- abandon its ruinous zero Covid strategy.
And the world will be in a better place; quite possibly quite a lot better place.
The Western boom of the 80s and 90s was at least partly a consequence of countries weaning themselves off cheap Saudi oil, and replacing it with North Sea or Alaska or nuclear. Why shouldn't we see similar this time around?
Which is why very few recent PMs give a d*mn about N Ireland
And I hate to say it but if the consequences of this policy are followed through I wonder about the impact on crime and how safe people will be able to feel going about their business.
(a) to immediately raise the rate of VAT to 15%, adding around 5% to prices.
(b) to end the double lock on pensions (earnings vs inflation), and move it simply to inflation.
They did these things because they recognised that - while they were unpopular - there were substantial costs associated with allowing the budget deficit to grow ever wider.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192?s=20&t=b1mPYMYBUDRYYVA9pDPDBw
... in a way that is not open to legal challenge.
I'm still of the opinion - at the moment - that the grey vote will drift back towards the Cons and they won't poll under 30%. No matter how wretched their situation, they've never polled sub-30% in any GE in their entire history.
Show me polls with Labour up into the 60s and the Tories falling well behind with pensioners and I might reconsider.
Wiki: The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.
But on those levels you'd be better off voting for Count Binface or Lord Sutch.
https://twitter.com/kaisdjelassi/status/1565831192003346432?s=46&t=Az_9--V-KF5gEjQS5GnqMw
I fear the reckoning will be rockier than the 70s-80s
I can’t see any bright light that shows the way out and avoids huge economic pain and potential wars everywhere. Also nukes of course
Still we’ve got the new season of Masterchef
But wouldn't that require her Cabinet to turn on her? I right bunch of turkeys though they may be, that lot won't be voting for their personal Christmases.
Tactically, it might be their best move. For some inexplicable reason Boris is popular in the country, is a known face to the public and has the advantage of being shoved out of the way for LizT
I don't care if the Tories fall down to FDP levels of support, its still better. 👍
You can abolish it but you get shoved out of a window from the 10th floor then it is over for you.
If you think so, please tell me when.
It’s just delusional. Truss deserves no sympathy but does anyone believe it will be better for SKS ? This country is becoming ungovernable. We all seem to think the world owes us a living.
https://twitter.com/midnightinspace/status/1575545082698407937?s=46&t=Az_9--V-KF5gEjQS5GnqMw
😶😶
Sorry if it's well known common knowledge and I have missed it.
However, ideally Truss will be out even sooner
An important difference between the Government and the Opposition is that one will certain scrape together all of the remaining wealth and invite plutocrats to cart it off as loot, whereas the other won't. For that reason alone Starmer deserves to have a crack at putting this mess right.
Step forward Rishi Sunak
Histrionics about interest rate going to 4% show everything that is wrong with this country. We need a big dose of hardcore reality.
Superb
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Conservatives_and_Unionists
Good luck explaining that to the public .
Truss is actually right that ultra low interest rates have favoured the haves at the cost of the have nots. She was stupidly wrong to cut taxes for the better off, of course, that was political suicide. But she is also right to say the status quo is not really an option.
"Fundamental decisions for Ukraine will be made at an urgent meeting of the National Security and Defense Council tomorrow."
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1575542969414782976
YouGov have just finally put the nail in the coffin.
U-turn incoming.
There's a story in an Anthony Burgess I think novel about a young bloke in Singapore who used to walk through a park on his way to work and give biscuits to the monkeys. One day he forgot the biscuits and the monkeys tore him to bits.
Sunak handed out the biscuits. Liz has run out.
The most effective means of showing contrition would be for Tory MPs to go crawling in penitence to Rishi, and see if he can at least rescue half of them from the wrath of the electorate.
The thing is an unexplained outlier is probably an outlier. This poll is entirely explicable in terms of Keir at the funeral, Keir at the conference, Kwasi at the funeral, and Lizzie being Lizzie.
⚡️At an emergency meeting of the National Security Council tomorrow, fundamental decisions for Ukraine will be made, - Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security Council.
https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1575546459000389632?s=46&t=N71cakprJs8gdLYw3SZIHw
I liked this bit:
"After failed calls for the UUP to disband and join the Conservatives, the Conservatives in Northern Ireland were relaunched as NI Conservatives on 14 June 2012."
The Conservatives are like cockroaches, they will survive Putin's nuclear war, the one outlined on this thread.
I entirely agree - they have to vote this down. Ordinarily the threat of voting it down would make them change tack. But this lot's sneering arrogance suggests they genuinely believe they are correct.
Even if they threaten - or enact - the withdrawal of the whip, is that a deterrent to people who (a) will get wiped out and (b) are supported by their voters and probably their associations?
What happens to the government's sneering when it runs out of road? She can't keep saying "I am right" when she can't get her budget through the Commons.
Sympathies. Must have taken a lorra couselling to work through that one.
One of the single worst decisions in political history.
I appreciate what the members want is not necessarily at the forefront of the Tory Party’s needs right now. But at the same time it’s a delicate balancing act so that they don’t piss even more people off (inc the people who canvass and leaflet etc).
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1575526164957110272
Of course the polls are going to be dire for the Tories this side of Christmas.
Central to Liz Truss’s pitch.
Take on the dragons. Make the difficult policy choices. Be damned with the immediate term popularity contests. Those are for next year, as policy begins to pay off.
@Dominic2306
·
1h
before you all die laughing remember this no10 clownshow will tomorrow be sitting in no10 figuring out what to say about *Putin/nuclear weapons* in between devising shit media gimmicks to save their asses