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Truss isn’t working – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    edited September 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Those who put a quid or two on Wallace and/or Sunak as next PM/leader feeling slightly smug. :smile:

    Not as smug as the guy who also predicted Truss would be ousted by the 2023 conference.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,659
    Carnyx said:

    What was @Misty banned for?

    Apparently saying that polling company X was dodgy. I imagine cos he didn't like the result.
    Well Yougov was set up by a Tory...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    ydoethur said:

    The Truss isn’t working, the Tory party has ruptured and it’s internal organs are hanging out.

    Are you saying they're living intestine times?
    Just try telling them "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken."
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    There's also Gove.

    But let it be May - just to see Bozo's face.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    eek said:

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    4m
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead at 19 points in results for The Daily Mirror.
    Con 29% (-2)
    Lab 48% (+4)
    Lib Dem 9% (-3)
    Other 14% (+1)
    Fieldwork: 27 - 29 September 2022
    Sample: 1,613 GB adults
    (Changes from 22 - 25 September 2022)

    That gives us


    Outlier alert - only a 19% lead.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I find it curious that the same posters who decry Biden's decline into imbecility, are the same ones who have him playing 4D chess with a daring piece of subterfuge to ensure Germany's resolve is not weakened.

    It's Cognitive Dissonance!
    Or, Biden has advisors. I mean, I always presumed American presidents have advisors? But I could be wrong
    I would note that Biden - at a press conference - asked if a deceased Member of Congress was in attendance. This happened yesterday.

    So, if it was the Americans, we can be fairly sure Biden will let it drop during a speech about dental care or something.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    I think they have to try and bring Starmer and Reeves in to restore confidence in the country. I don't think they can struggle on and they aren't going to allow a GE and disappear
  • Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    Yep, and almost bound to make things worse for the party.

    Well, I did warn 'em.
    A lot of us did. They decided to turn themselves from the most sensible party of government into a joke party of populist swivel-eyed loons. It is going to be a very long journey back to power. I am in my mid 50s and I suspect I might not see another Conservative government this side of becoming an octogenarian.

    After that amount of lefty bossy government we will all be so woke even @Leon will be wearing a skirt announcing they are non-binary and asking people to them Lilly. People will be asking why it is that England, as a region of the EU, gets so many regional assistance grants.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Truss isn’t working, the Tory party has ruptured and it’s internal organs are hanging out.

    Are you saying they're living intestine times?
    Just try telling them "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken."
    Well, a refusal to accept error would be Oliver piece with their recent actions.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    rcs1000 said:

    It's fascinating the drop in the LD vote:

    Clearly there is an increasing desire to get rid of the Conservative Party and that is consolidating votes with Labour.

    Makes complete sense. The only dilemma I've got where I live is whether Labour or the Lib Dems have the better chance of ejecting the local Tory. Right now I'd happily vote for either.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Larry Summers on Truss, and the rest of the world:

    “Global Market Risk Is Building Like in August 2007, Summers Says”
    “Crisis firefighters had better not book vacations, he says”
    “Japan’s bond holdings need watching, ex-Treasury chief says”

    https://archive.ph/TOYGE
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    mickydroy said:

    Does anybody know the % the Tories got in 1997, for me that is their floor, cannot see them getting below that, they had everyone against them then, even the murdoch press.

    30.7% is the figure on Wikipedia. Most likely that's across the UK, rather than GB.
    Looks more like a ceiling than a floor at the moment.
  • Carnyx said:

    mickydroy said:

    Does anybody know the % the Tories got in 1997, for me that is their floor, cannot see them getting below that, they had everyone against them then, even the murdoch press.

    30.7%; Wiki is our friend. *But* no Kippers/Reform then.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Thanks, along the lines of what I was thinking, 29% for me is their absolute floor, but even with that, they are in for a terrible drubbing
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Gove, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    Wallace is the obvious choice as he's of no faction, steady pair of hands, and any new administration needs an experienced Chancellor to pick up on day 1 - Sunak.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price tonight...

    Which of the 2 MPs would he back (as a member) for LOTO?
    The leader of the SNP would be LOTO.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Nigelb said:

    Those who put a quid or two on Wallace and/or Sunak as next PM/leader feeling slightly smug. :smile:

    Not as smug as the guy who predicted Truss would be ousted by the 2023 conference.
    Still a few days before the 2022 conference begins....

    I wonder how many MPs are going to find unavoidable constituency business next week to avoid attending...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Scott_xP said:

    Penny for the thoughts of Tissue Price tonight...

    He was indeed taken for a fool.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Just back from a lovely day on the moors.

    Am glad to see sterling stable, stock market less so and reports of 40% of mortgage deals being pulled. That's horrendous for people.

    You touch their homes and you're toast.

    The scale of the YouGov lead is eye-watering. It may come down in due course, it may not. But I'm more convinced than ever that Labour will win an outright majority at the next election.

    The Conservative membership only have themselves to blame, but they are wrecking people's lives in the process.

    They will not be forgiven for this in a very, very, long time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    edited September 2022
    ydoethur said:

    The Truss isn’t working, the Tory party has ruptured and it’s internal organs are hanging out.

    Are you saying they're living intestine times?
    ...
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    On current trajectory the Tories should be polling negative 30% in the next 3-4 months
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Those who put a quid or two on Wallace and/or Sunak as next PM/leader feeling slightly smug. :smile:

    Not as smug as the guy who predicted Truss would be ousted by the 2023 conference.
    Still a few days before the 2022 conference begins....

    I wonder how many MPs are going to find unavoidable constituency business next week to avoid attending...
    There's no hiding from this - they need to get their acts together now.
    Anything else is pathetic.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    darkage said:

    The reason this is an extinction level event is that Truss and Kwarteng went missing for several days. If they did a media tour in the immediate aftermath of the 'mini budget', even with the uninspiring reasons they rolled out today, things would be a bit better for them. They rolled this out and weren't around to defend it. The tories either remove them now or they may be completely finished as a political party.

    It'd be nice to think so, because frankly they deserve it, but I still don't buy that they'll get ground down to the low 20s in an actual GE. The elderly will rescue them.
  • eek said:

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    There's also Gove.

    But let it be May - just to see Bozo's face.....
    Actually had just edited to include Gove (keep forgetting him for some reason!) yes another definite option.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Gove, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    Wallace is the obvious choice as he's of no faction, steady pair of hands, and any new administration needs an experienced Chancellor to pick up on day 1 - Sunak.
    But how could it be accomplished in practical terms?

    Hope that only one candidate would stand? Hope that you could manoeuvre someone who would withdraw into second place? Change the rules?
  • On the first - this is probably THE most important stat:

    There are proportionally as many many Conservative voters switching to Labour now as there were on 1st May 1997.

    17% of Conservative 2019 voters are now telling us they intend to vote Labour. It was 16% in 1997.


    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1575533250172571648
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,945
    pigeon said:

    darkage said:

    The reason this is an extinction level event is that Truss and Kwarteng went missing for several days. If they did a media tour in the immediate aftermath of the 'mini budget', even with the uninspiring reasons they rolled out today, things would be a bit better for them. They rolled this out and weren't around to defend it. The tories either remove them now or they may be completely finished as a political party.

    It'd be nice to think so, because frankly they deserve it, but I still don't buy that they'll get ground down to the low 20s in an actual GE. The elderly will rescue them.
    Not if the value of their property has fallen 30% by 2024.
  • Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Would either of them want to take the risk? Same goes for Wallace. The only candidate with nothing to lose because he is already a big winner (and then a loser- because they changed the rules) is Johnson.
    Yes, I can actually see the Tories doing a secret deal with Boris: you can come back and lead us and fight the next general election, but on the condition that you step down eighteen months after that general election (assuming we win it). Boris would enjoy it and it would restore his pride. The Tories will just hope that the old magician Boris can also turn his hand to miracles.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Those who put a quid or two on Wallace and/or Sunak as next PM/leader feeling slightly smug. :smile:

    Not as smug as the guy who predicted Truss would be ousted by the 2023 conference.
    Still a few days before the 2022 conference begins....

    I wonder how many MPs are going to find unavoidable constituency business next week to avoid attending...
    There's no hiding from this - they need to get their acts together now.
    Anything else is pathetic.
    Do you want to be on camera at any point during the Kwasi or Liz's speeches?

    Best to be as far away as possible....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    On the first - this is probably THE most important stat:

    There are proportionally as many many Conservative voters switching to Labour now as there were on 1st May 1997.

    17% of Conservative 2019 voters are now telling us they intend to vote Labour. It was 16% in 1997.


    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1575533250172571648

    So Labour might get a Blair style swing and a majority of *checks notes* 1 seat?
  • By compaison, polls in 1992 were rather less frequent. Here are the polls just before and just after Black Wednesday.

    ICM: 5 September C39 L35 and 10 October C38 L38
    Mori: 2 September C41 L44 and 19 September C39 L 43
    Gallup: 7 September C43 L41 and 21 September C37 L42
    NOP: 14 August C43 L39 and 18 September C39 L41

    YouGov does tend to overreact to events, but blimey.
  • eek said:

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    There's also Gove.

    But let it be May - just to see Bozo's face.....
    Actually had just edited to include Gove (keep forgetting him for some reason!) yes another definite option.
    Gove has given the appearance of a mid life crisis the last couple of years. Way too risky a choice for a safe pair of hands job.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    edited September 2022
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Gove, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    Wallace is the obvious choice as he's of no faction, steady pair of hands, and any new administration needs an experienced Chancellor to pick up on day 1 - Sunak.
    But how could it be accomplished in practical terms?

    Hope that only one candidate would stand? Hope that you could manoeuvre someone who would withdraw into second place? Change the rules?
    75 nominations for each candidate would be a very good start.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    365 people will be pondering if they have a career under the current branding.
    There will be wargaming of splits, i can see 'conversations' with Nigel
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I do get the unspoken, undiscussed plan was to shitefest Johnson past the public; bang a nail through Brexit; quietly shuffle Boris off-stage before he shits himself too badly and then go back to a calm managed democracy 2012-style. Does it feel like it’s going well and smoothly.
    https://twitter.com/flying_rodent/status/1575532876224864256
  • Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Gove, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    Wallace is the obvious choice as he's of no faction, steady pair of hands, and any new administration needs an experienced Chancellor to pick up on day 1 - Sunak.
    But how could it be accomplished in practical terms?

    Hope that only one candidate would stand? Hope that you could manoeuvre someone who would withdraw into second place? Change the rules?
    Yes, it requires virtually total unanimity amongst Tory MPs to avoid a leadership election. That doesn't look likely, to put it mildly.

    They (and we) are stuck with Ms Truss.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    BUT, but, but, the boundary changes could gain the Conservatives around 10 seats.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    As an aside, the ejection of the UK from the ERM, combined with some very sensible economic management from Clarke/Major, led to a decade of prosperity.

    But it didn't save the Tories from a drubbing in 1997, five years after the ERM fiasco.

    Of course, the government implemented a lot of very sensible measures then - in particular things that boosted the savings rate (ISAs, PEPs and the like) - and which led to the Current Account *almost* reaching zero in 1996.
  • ydoethur said:

    On the first - this is probably THE most important stat:

    There are proportionally as many many Conservative voters switching to Labour now as there were on 1st May 1997.

    17% of Conservative 2019 voters are now telling us they intend to vote Labour. It was 16% in 1997.


    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1575533250172571648

    So Labour might get a Blair style swing and a majority of *checks notes* 1 seat?
    Majority of 492!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    The public have seen Liz Truss and they're repelled. First impressions count. She's already toast.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Those who put a quid or two on Wallace and/or Sunak as next PM/leader feeling slightly smug. :smile:

    Not as smug as the guy who predicted Truss would be ousted by the 2023 conference.
    Still a few days before the 2022 conference begins....

    I wonder how many MPs are going to find unavoidable constituency business next week to avoid attending...
    There's no hiding from this - they need to get their acts together now.
    Anything else is pathetic.
    Do you want to be on camera at any point during the Kwasi or Liz's speeches?

    Best to be as far away as possible....
    Foaming at the mouth? Worried about catching rabies?
  • Truss definitely surprising on the up side. Slight problems that the sides are mostly inflation, interest rates and Labour leads.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    We are facing difficult economic times globally.

    We must put this country on a trajectory for long-term growth whilst maintaining fiscal discipline.

    Cutting taxes will boost investment, creating jobs and opportunities for all.

    That is what our Growth Plan will deliver.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1575506759929982976
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    You waxed your usual lyrical hyperboles about Liz Truss 2 months ago on here stating that she was the real deal, that somehow unexpectedly the Conservative Party had stumbled across the next Margaret Thatcher, that she was the answer to what the country needs.

    You are in this, as with 95% of things, completely and utterly wrong.

    Other members of this forum, do take note.

    Almost everyone else knew she was a walking disaster, unfit for the top job, although even we couldn't quite anticipate the magnitude of her ineptitude.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited September 2022
    Haha.

    Just taken my mum for an MRI. It has big “turn off your mobile” signs.

    Not being a dickhead, I obliged.

    Just turned it back on and read this.

    Bonkers!
  • Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    365 people will be pondering if they have a career under the current branding.
    There will be wargaming of splits, i can see 'conversations' with Nigel

    What does that give them - under our electoral system the chances of you keeping your seat as a Reform MP is less than the 1 week survival odds of an ice cube in the Sahara under a hair dryer....
  • Fear not, Liz has a plan. She needs a Falklands moment, so trade war with the EU it is.

    (And I'm afraid this isn't even in jest).

    Yup. She will keep digging.
  • As the Tories face into the apocalyptofuck, practical questions have to be asked about conference...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGSSe1voBz0
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    pigeon said:

    darkage said:

    The reason this is an extinction level event is that Truss and Kwarteng went missing for several days. If they did a media tour in the immediate aftermath of the 'mini budget', even with the uninspiring reasons they rolled out today, things would be a bit better for them. They rolled this out and weren't around to defend it. The tories either remove them now or they may be completely finished as a political party.

    It'd be nice to think so, because frankly they deserve it, but I still don't buy that they'll get ground down to the low 20s in an actual GE. The elderly will rescue them.
    The tories can have a long half life as a lobby group for pensioners and NIMBY's but they are done for as a governing party after this. Anyone with a job/mortgage/young kids/real life is going to switch to labour for the reasons we have heard from various posters on PB today.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    edited September 2022
    Last time a party recorded a poll lead of >32%?

    2 Dec 1996: Lab 59%, Con 22%. Not sure how that turned out.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1996
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I wonder what the front pages will look like tonight?
  • With apologies to @ydoethur for quoting Sam Freedman, I liked this:

    "This is voters' first impression of Truss. It's like a new boss has taken over your firm and pissed in the water cooler at an all-staff meeting. You're never going to recover from that."

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1575530857838055424
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Truss isn’t working, the Tory party has ruptured and it’s internal organs are hanging out.

    Are you saying they're living intestine times?
    Just try telling them "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken."
    Well, a refusal to accept error would be Oliver piece with their recent actions.
    Hence why they have taken a Bath.
  • Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Gove, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    Wallace is the obvious choice as he's of no faction, steady pair of hands, and any new administration needs an experienced Chancellor to pick up on day 1 - Sunak.
    But how could it be accomplished in practical terms?

    Hope that only one candidate would stand? Hope that you could manoeuvre someone who would withdraw into second place? Change the rules?
    The Tories have rallied behind a single figure before (Howard). I assume in reality you need a cross-faction group of MPs to pretty much ring round and tell all your colleagues that they have to get behind this person or else.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    SNP 5 in over 65?! I don't believe it, as that would imply a huge breakthrough in that cohort. Subsamples ...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Political honeymoon latest: the airline lost the bags, the transfer car broke down, and now the hotel has burned down at the same moment a tsunami hit the resort
    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1575525739675340802
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    On the first - this is probably THE most important stat:

    There are proportionally as many many Conservative voters switching to Labour now as there were on 1st May 1997.

    17% of Conservative 2019 voters are now telling us they intend to vote Labour. It was 16% in 1997.


    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1575533250172571648

    Starmer is looking like an ultra safe bet to sensible middle Britain who would rather like to keep the keys to their own front doors.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,967
    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this
  • carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    He wasn't popular, it wasn't over a glass of wine, it was he lied about knowing Chris Pincher was Pincher by name, Pincher by habit.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    kyf_100 said:

    pigeon said:

    darkage said:

    The reason this is an extinction level event is that Truss and Kwarteng went missing for several days. If they did a media tour in the immediate aftermath of the 'mini budget', even with the uninspiring reasons they rolled out today, things would be a bit better for them. They rolled this out and weren't around to defend it. The tories either remove them now or they may be completely finished as a political party.

    It'd be nice to think so, because frankly they deserve it, but I still don't buy that they'll get ground down to the low 20s in an actual GE. The elderly will rescue them.
    Not if the value of their property has fallen 30% by 2024.
    Granted, this and abolishing the triple lock are the two events that could explode the core vote. The Government will scrap child benefit before freezing the state pension, but if we've got a house price crash coming they may be powerless to prevent it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Scott_xP said:

    We are facing difficult economic times globally.

    We must put this country on a trajectory for long-term growth whilst maintaining fiscal discipline.

    Cutting taxes will boost investment, creating jobs and opportunities for all.

    That is what our Growth Plan will deliver.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1575506759929982976

    Once again - we've had low Corporation Tax for 12 years and crap growth.

    What has changed that means a 13th year of low Corporation Tax will result in companies investing to increase Productivity....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Gove, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    Wallace is the obvious choice as he's of no faction, steady pair of hands, and any new administration needs an experienced Chancellor to pick up on day 1 - Sunak.
    But how could it be accomplished in practical terms?

    Hope that only one candidate would stand? Hope that you could manoeuvre someone who would withdraw into second place? Change the rules?
    The Tories have rallied behind a single figure before (Howard). I assume in reality you need a cross-faction group of MPs to pretty much ring round and tell all your colleagues that they have to get behind this person or else.
    Surely one of the neoliberals blowhards would feel compelled to stand, even if Truss could be persuaded to stand down.

    And on what possible basis could she stand down anyway? An invented 'illness' maybe?
  • It is brave of him to go on the streets and wave the Conservative flag given the last week's news
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587

    Last time a party recorded a poll lead of >32%?

    2 Dec 1996: Lab 59%, Con 22%. Not sure how that turned out.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1996

    Lab 43 Con 30 is how it turned out. Would that get a 165 maj these days?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,659
    Well we surely see soon if the Truss rumours are true. She would have to be a glutton for punishment to appear at the Conference.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    eek said:

    365 people will be pondering if they have a career under the current branding.
    There will be wargaming of splits, i can see 'conversations' with Nigel

    What does that give them - under our electoral system the chances of you keeping your seat as a Reform MP is less than the 1 week survival odds of an ice cube in the Sahara under a hair dryer....
    Yes, FPTP works against them here. If Tory MPs quit to join Reform / UKIP / whatever then they split the right vote & Labour walks in.
  • carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    If he had still been popular they wouldn't have got rid of him.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    A week is a bloody long time in politics.

    Didn’t think there was any way they could remove Truss. Now I think they have to. Massive mea culpa “oh we didn’t realise she would be that utterly batshit”. Swift coronation. Safe pair of hands. Potential for Rishi to come back as CofE. Aim for a GE result that will save as many seats as possible. Try and write all this off as a bit of an embarrassing accident.

    Yes

    Mordaunt as PM with Sunak as CoE, or vice versa

    Pretend this never happened. Cough cough. Ahem. Move on

    It won't stop defeat but it might save a few seats
    Penny is a good egg, but she’s still too junior. Needs to be someone who has held high office IMHO. You can’t risk the same problem twice.

    One of Wallace, Gove, Javid, Rishi, Hunt or May. All have downsides but all have done big jobs and can steady the ship.
    Wallace is the obvious choice as he's of no faction, steady pair of hands, and any new administration needs an experienced Chancellor to pick up on day 1 - Sunak.
    But how could it be accomplished in practical terms?

    Hope that only one candidate would stand? Hope that you could manoeuvre someone who would withdraw into second place? Change the rules?
    The Tories have rallied behind a single figure before (Howard). I assume in reality you need a cross-faction group of MPs to pretty much ring round and tell all your colleagues that they have to get behind this person or else.
    Or else is - a random right wing MP becoming PM on the votes of utterly insane and very annoyed Tory party members
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Am I the only person who thinks it's far too early to be making judgements about the Truss government?
  • HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    Absolutely - both resign or you and thousands of conservatives in office will be out of office for decades
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    We are facing difficult economic times globally.

    We must put this country on a trajectory for long-term growth whilst maintaining fiscal discipline.

    Cutting taxes will boost investment, creating jobs and opportunities for all.

    That is what our Growth Plan will deliver.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1575506759929982976

    Once again - we've had low Corporation Tax for 12 years and crap growth.

    What has changed that means a 13th year of low Corporation Tax will result in companies investing to increase Productivity....
    Headline rates have been lowered, loopholes have been removed, and so the base has been widened. Take has been about the same.
  • Foxy said:

    Well we surely see soon if the Truss rumours are true. She would have to be a glutton for punishment to appear at the Conference.

    If she does lose the PM job, would she stay in the Commons or head for the Chilterns?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Con polling lead Sept out to 200/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1575535640078389268
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    The two Tories slated to survive are John Lamont and David Mundell in D&G.

    Surely just an artefact of Scottish calculation.

    They'd be gone too.

    0 MPs would complete the Tories' conversion into a Farage party.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    eek said:

    365 people will be pondering if they have a career under the current branding.
    There will be wargaming of splits, i can see 'conversations' with Nigel

    What does that give them - under our electoral system the chances of you keeping your seat as a Reform MP is less than the 1 week survival odds of an ice cube in the Sahara under a hair dryer....
    Reform is Tice
    Im talking new entrant to the market.
    Not saying it will happen but bet your life its being considered. Look at the vote totals for populists in oarts of tge Red Wall, then look at tje Tories in same losing 67% of their support.
    There are moments for 'something new'. This could be one. It likely won't be, but there is scope
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    IshmaelZ said:

    Con polling lead Sept out to 200/1

    Money for old rope as I can't see any polls tomorrow - everyone has done 1 today..
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Foxy said:

    Well we surely see soon if the Truss rumours are true. She would have to be a glutton for punishment to appear at the Conference.

    If she does lose the PM job, would she stay in the Commons or head for the Chilterns?
    How much does she enjoy being humiliated?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    I see this a lot on Twitter. He was very unpopular and lied about the appointment of Chris Pincher. Well, it was a combination of things, it’s just possible that less than a year ago he’d just let Paterson do his 30 days he’d still be here. But it wasn’t the cake.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Labour 500, Conservative 60???

    That would be a terrible result for Britain. You might as well make the place a one party state.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    OMG I thought he was one of the more sensible Tories?
  • Heathener said:

    On the first - this is probably THE most important stat:

    There are proportionally as many many Conservative voters switching to Labour now as there were on 1st May 1997.

    17% of Conservative 2019 voters are now telling us they intend to vote Labour. It was 16% in 1997.


    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1575533250172571648

    Starmer is looking like an ultra safe bet to sensible middle Britain who would rather like to keep the keys to their own front doors.

    Yes, anecdotally there are a huge amount of “I’ve voted Tory all my life but I’ll vote Labour because this lot are taking the piss now” voters around. Starmer doesn’t turn them off like Corbyn ever would have.

    When push comes to shove, however… if it were looking this bad before the election, the Tories would 100% bin off Truss for someone with a vague chance of keeping things respectable.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    They could still pull themselves, the party & the country out of this hole. But honestly, I don’t think they even understand why there’s a problem: they will double down on trying to blame pesky remoaners / lefty investment bank bond traders / the EU for all the difficulties & keep plowing on making things worse.
  • I will vote tactically to eject the loons and save the Tory party.

    So, I would vote Labour in JRM or John Redwood's seat but Tory in Jeremy Hunt or Damien Hinds seat.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    Realistically at least half of the sampling was done before people realised how close the pension funds had come to disaster.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Am I the only person who thinks it's far too early to be making judgements about the Truss government?

    Yes
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,659
    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder what the front pages will look like tonight?

    The Daily Mail will find something else up an arse?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Senior Conservative MP tells me on tonight’s @Channel4News the mini-budget looked like it was “written down on the back of a fag packet” and that an @UKLabour 1997-style landslide is now on the cards. Watch at 7 for the full interview.
    https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1575535978952925186
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Scott_xP said:
    Labour 500, Conservative 60???

    That would be a terrible result for Britain. You might as well make the place a one party state.
    Don't worry, it ain't happening. But the Tories deserve a good thrashing.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Chris said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    Realistically at least half of the sampling was done before people realised how close the pension funds had come to disaster.
    So the next one could be worse - yikes...
  • HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    Calm the nerves? Are you kidding? Truss can't speak to anyone without sending gilt yields higher. Her and Kwarteng genuinely believe they are right and the rest of the world are wrong. Such sneering arrogance will make things worse, not better.
This discussion has been closed.