That would be a terrible result for Britain. You might as well make the place a one party state.
It depends how far the Tories are willing to repent between now and the GE. I would like to see some apologies and commitment to a broader range of ideas, in which case would hope the Tories are 200+ in opposition.
If they stay ideological representing a sliver of society, then they only deserve a sliver of the seats in parliament.
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1575535640078389268
Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.
The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.
In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.
In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.
Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.
More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
I see this a lot on Twitter. He was very unpopular and lied about the appointment of Chris Pincher. Well, it was a combination of things, it’s just possible that less than a year ago he’d just let Paterson do his 30 days he’d still be here. But it wasn’t the cake.
Are you talking about his unpopularity in the parliamentary party? Then I think you are right. In the country, though, which has a secondary effect on the party, it was the cake wot done it.
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.
The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.
In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.
In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.
Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.
More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
If he had still been popular they wouldn't have got rid of him.
And if that were all he had done it would have been a mistake. The reality was he was the most dishonest and incompetent individual ever to have held high office. It was absolutely right to depose him. The mistake was not doing it sooner.
Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this
Calm the nerves? Are you kidding? Truss can't speak to anyone without sending gilt yields higher. Her and Kwarteng genuinely believe they are right and the rest of the world are wrong. Such sneering arrogance will make things worse, not better.
This is going to make IDS’ final conference look like a roaring success.
Fizzy Lizzy is here to stay and she’s turning up the interest rates!
Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this
Absolutely - both resign or you and thousands of conservatives in office will be out of office for decades
Why would I resign, if you resign you don't get a vote in the next leadership election. I can feed through comments to my MP though as they will push the PM for action and have a vote in any VONC
This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.
Looking forward to Truss's conference speech bounce.
This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.
I would usually agree with you there but I don't think that's true this time.
This is all about the sudden realisation of how bad a screw up last Friday's mini budget was..
Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this
Absolutely - both resign or you and thousands of conservatives in office will be out of office for decades
Why would I resign, if you resign you don't get a vote in the next leadership election. I can feed through comments to my MP though as they will push the PM for action and have a vote in any VONC
One reassuring thing about these polls is they show the British electorate is not yet as divided on partisan lines as America. That kind of polling would be impossible there. Only really Scotland (and NI obvs) where the divide is more sticky.
Interesting charts from @RD_Economist. I esp like this one, showing the divergence between UK & US government bond yields. It’s a pretty useful illustration of the extent to which this is a UK-specific issue - not just a consequence of US movements.
The two Tories slated to survive are John Lamont and David Mundell in D&G.
Surely just an artefact of Scottish calculation.
They'd be gone too.
0 MPs would complete the Tories' conversion into a Farage party.
LDs historically strong in the first's seat, the second being Alister Jack surely with the SNP being very close. or if Mr M is indeed meant in DCT, the SNP is jnot so close. Only 8 percentage points behind though, so a 5% swing would do it.
Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this
Already too late. Firstly, the new top team has made a dreadful first impression on the electorate and will have been written off by most of them. Secondly, if they press on with the slash spending and give the money to the rich agenda it will just confirm the general impression that the Tories are total shits. Thirdly, if they reverse ferret their policy platform is dead in the water and it's likely it won't do anything to calm the febrile money markets because it will reveal them to be rudderless and clueless.
This, surely, at long bloody last, is the fuck up that the Conservative Party cannot recover from? The difference now between defeat, rout and complete annihilation is the extent to which it can hold the core vote together. Let's put it this way: if we really do have a public sector spending freeze coming then Therese Coffey will have to make sure that a lot of money gets diverted from areas like mental health spending and maternity units to fund more hip and knee replacements.
This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.
Looking forward to Truss's conference speech bounce.
Her talking to a couple of cleaners who just take pity and say 'take your time dear, we will be having a tea over there when you're done'
Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this
Absolutely - both resign or you and thousands of conservatives in office will be out of office for decades
Why would I resign, if you resign you don't get a vote in the next leadership election. I can feed through comments to my MP though as they will push the PM for action and have a vote in any VONC
I am not suggesting you do resign, the electorate will do it for all those standing as a conservative, and any attempt to mitigate this Truss and Kwarteng need to go now
OMG I thought he was one of the more sensible Tories?
As I pointed out at the time, he made a big error turning on Boris. Hopefully, after the election he’ll be back on PB and can post freely. I wonder if he regrets it?
The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.
In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.
In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.
Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.
More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
I see this a lot on Twitter. He was very unpopular and lied about the appointment of Chris Pincher. Well, it was a combination of things, it’s just possible that less than a year ago he’d just let Paterson do his 30 days he’d still be here. But it wasn’t the cake.
Are you talking about his unpopularity in the parliamentary party? Then I think you are right. In the country, though, which has a secondary effect on the party, it was the cake wot done it.
No, you said he was a popular prime minister, our survey said -
The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.
In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.
In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.
Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.
Maybe it was a mistake thinking a compulsive liar wasn't a fit person to be prime minister, just because his successor has turned out to be - words fail me ...
These are the kind of interesting dilemmas the Tory party presents us with.
Am I the only person who thinks it's far too early to be making judgements about the Truss government?
I would agree with you, but I think her disappearance over the past few days shows that she is well out of her depth.
The fundamental difficulty Truss has is that her belief and conviction that she is taking the 'difficult decisions' necessary to return the country to 'growth' is completely undermined by the reaction of the markets. All the volatility that is driving up interest rates etc is now linked to her plan for large scale tax cuts which largely benefit the extremely rich. It just seems to me to be politically suicidal.
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
You can't stick "fuck the Tories" voting into a nationwide algorithm. People will vote for whichever sane candidate is best placed to remove the loonies. And in an awful lot of seats that is the LibDems.
Am I the only person who thinks it's far too early to be making judgements about the Truss government?
They’ve had buckets of shit poured over them constantly for a week. It’s no surprise the numbers are terrible. Some of it is self inflicted, but not all.
OMG I thought he was one of the more sensible Tories?
As I pointed out at the time, he made a big error turning on Boris. Hopefully, after the election he’ll be back on PB and can post freely. I wonder if he regrets it?
With Tory MPs now breaking cover There seem to be two choices now for Truss. Sack her chancellor, then backtrack and hope the buck stops with him. Or backtrack first and then see how things look. Both are terrible but both involve a u-turn. https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1575539508543688722
OMG I thought he was one of the more sensible Tories?
As I pointed out at the time, he made a big error turning on Boris. Hopefully, after the election he’ll be back on PB and can post freely. I wonder if he regrets it?
Nah, his error was supporting Truss
I suspect he's going to be told that a lot of times tonight.
And tomorrow will be ensuring he's up to speed so that he can return to his old job in a couple of years time..
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
You can't stick "fuck the Tories" voting into a nationwide algorithm. People will vote for whichever sane candidate is best placed to remove the loonies. And in an awful lot of seats that is the LibDems.
Thank goodness you're spelling loonies right. I keep feeling there are too many Doric farmworkers being maligned on PB.
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
Alternatively, evidence of mass scale tactical voting intent, where the Lib Dems are still working to recover from the damage of the Coalition, and Labour is therefore the weapon of choice for anti-Tories in the vast majority of Conservative-held seats.
The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.
In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.
In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.
Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.
More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
If he had still been popular they wouldn't have got rid of him.
And if that were all he had done it would have been a mistake. The reality was he was the most dishonest and incompetent individual ever to have held high office. It was absolutely right to depose him. The mistake was not doing it sooner.
Small correction: he was the most dishonest and incompetent individual ever to have held high office /at the time/.
I fear he may since have been eclipsed, at least on the competence front.
Utterly insane to cram that mini budget in. Could have spent conference talking up a growth strategy, got an OBR forecast and done it next week. Kantar shows where they could have been fighting from. All gone. Its over for them. Idiots. Clueless.
It’s still far more likely that if we were facing these type of polls in 2023/2024, they’d ditch Truss for eg. Wallace, and tell him “You’re not going to win, but you need to at least make it so we have 200 MPs and actually have a chance in 2029”.
Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this
Absolutely - both resign or you and thousands of conservatives in office will be out of office for decades
Why would I resign, if you resign you don't get a vote in the next leadership election. I can feed through comments to my MP though as they will push the PM for action and have a vote in any VONC
Stopping the 80,000 idiots who voted for Truss from voting again might be seen as a positive by most people
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
Alternatively, evidence of mass scale tactical voting intent, where the Lib Dems are still working to recover from the damage of the Coalition, and Labour is therefore the weapon of choice for anti-Tories in the vast majority of Conservative-held seats.
Especially if one fears that the LDs might be tempted to go into coalition with the Tories again.
In the words of Norman Lamont on Black Wednesday: “today has been a very difficult day”. These are not circumstances beyond the control of Govt/Treasury . They were authored there. This inept madness cannot go on
(Actually, it sounds like it might be another servicing mission to Hubble. Which IMO is even more exciting than aliens...)
If that’s SpaceX off the back of the Axiom spacewalk, look for exploding heads in Congress. Trips to the space station are one thing. Space walks would mean accepting the new SpaceX suits for EVA. And they’ve just punted billions to the usual suspects for suits….
If it had been the early 2010s with near-zero global interest rates and little movement in exchange rates, they might have survived, but you can't mess around with a 8% deficit when Fed rates are heading for 3-4% and the impacts of stupid policies are now felt immediately rather than gradually.
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
Alternatively, evidence of mass scale tactical voting intent, where the Lib Dems are still working to recover from the damage of the Coalition, and Labour is therefore the weapon of choice for anti-Tories in the vast majority of Conservative-held seats.
Hmmm, I think I side more with @RochdalePioneers take, especially given that we’ve had a couple of years of Labour and the LD’s giving each other seats on a relatively equal basis.
I suppose you’re correct on the ‘vast majority’ front but surely it’s more likely that the Lib Dems would get about 50-60 seats if the Tories polled this low, than to be in the 20s-30s?
I just can’t see the South West going as red as that map.
In the thread header, the Labour seat total is woefully understated in the EC prediction based on the YouGov poll. And the Conservative seat total is double what it should be.
The YouGov Scottish sub-sample breaks 38% Lab, SNP 44%, 10% Con, 2% Libs, 4% Green. Our SNP posters are always telling us that only YouGov properly weight their Scottish sample, so let's use that sub sample in the EC model.
The Scottish seat allocation from EC is then SNP 45, Lab 12, Others 0.
In the overall EC model, using the GB totals plus those splits for Scotland, it's then Lab 578, SNP 45, LD 5, Green 1, Plaid 1, Con 1.
Jacob Rees-Mogg cleverly reflects a graph of Tory polling from his head to toes. A master of interpretive mime.
Losing THAT tosser would be the highlight of the Tory wipeout. Of course, they would just put him in the Lords where he could continue to plague the country
Utterly insane to cram that mini budget in. Could have spent conference talking up a growth strategy, got an OBR forecast and done it next week. Kantar shows where they could have been fighting from. All gone. Its over for them. Idiots. Clueless.
This is what’s so astonishing: They could easily have sold this. The treasury clearly told them what would be required & filled in the outline of the process. You can see the advice: tweak the spending a bit, do the OBR, talk a big game about investing in growth. It would have been mostly guff sure, but the markets are used to guff. Guff & blather is what we’re used to.
But they wouldn’t have it & steamrollered ahead, trashing everything instead. Madness.
OMG I thought he was one of the more sensible Tories?
As I pointed out at the time, he made a big error turning on Boris. Hopefully, after the election he’ll be back on PB and can post freely. I wonder if he regrets it?
Because, you said, Boris was going to stay in power and would punish AB by not sending his constituency any goodies. Which, leaving aside the moral implications of seeing politics as a pork barreling sycophancy game, was not a sensational bit of forecasting.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?
This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.
I would usually agree with you there but I don't think that's true this time.
This is all about the sudden realisation of how bad a screw up last Friday's mini budget was..
Primarily the Government and its dire mistakes, true. But it helps Labour's cause no end that the Leader of the Opposition looks like a halfway plausible Prime Minister rather than a crazed, swivel-eyed maniac, or a malfunctioning robot. It's a low bar, granted, but right now a potential leader who's not even worse than the last one would come as a considerable relief to a weary nation.
What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
You can't stick "fuck the Tories" voting into a nationwide algorithm. People will vote for whichever sane candidate is best placed to remove the loonies. And in an awful lot of seats that is the LibDems.
Exactly.
In my constituency there is no point in voting Labour. If you want the Tory out (and he's not a very good MP) only an LD vote makes any sense. It's still unlikely they would win of course, but each day of Liz and Kwasi enhances the possibilty.
Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this
Based on today's market reaction, it might calm the markets a bit if Truss just kept her trap shut in order not to make matters even worse.
Utterly insane to cram that mini budget in. Could have spent conference talking up a growth strategy, got an OBR forecast and done it next week. Kantar shows where they could have been fighting from. All gone. Its over for them. Idiots. Clueless.
This is what’s so astonishing: They could easily have sold this. The treasury clearly told them what would be required & filled in the outline of the process. You can see the advice: tweak the spending a bit, do the OBR, talk a big game about investing in growth. It would have been mostly guff sure, but the markets are used to guff. Guff & blather is what we’re used to.
But they wouldn’t have it & steamrollered ahead, trashing everything instead. Madness.
Its just unbelievable. Im not against the theory, but the way they did it, the haste, the carelessness, hiding the forecast and the pointless 45p move that does nothing for growth. These arent serious people. FFS unless a change is made or a new option comes along put me in the draft Keir column (but fuck Clive Lewis!)
Am I the only person who thinks it's far too early to be making judgements about the Truss government?
I would agree with you, but I think her disappearance over the past few days shows that she is well out of her depth.
The fundamental difficulty Truss has is that her belief and conviction that she is taking the 'difficult decisions' necessary to return the country to 'growth' is completely undermined by the reaction of the markets. All the volatility that is driving up interest rates etc is now linked to her plan for large scale tax cuts which largely benefit the extremely rich. It just seems to me to be politically suicidal.
She is a living embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger Effect
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?
Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
As with Boris Johnson and Theresa May the 1922 don't need to change the rules if a sufficient number of MPs (ie a majority of Tory MPs) decide they want the leader gone.
Comments
If they stay ideological representing a sliver of society, then they only deserve a sliver of the seats in parliament.
Once mortgage deals were being pulled and mortgage interest rates soared it was all over
Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1575536820112265230
"Just when will Jeremy Corbyn take responsibility for this chaos and resign as ex-leader of the party in opposition for 12 years?"
https://twitter.com/sirmichaeltaker/status/1575536362878513154?s=20&t=b03hP3PtlHDyWjGMji-8qQ
https://twitter.com/RachaelKrishna/status/1575536762033938437
Fizzy Lizzy is here to stay and she’s turning up the interest rates!
This is all about the sudden realisation of how bad a screw up last Friday's mini budget was..
I esp like this one, showing the divergence between UK & US government bond yields.
It’s a pretty useful illustration of the extent to which this is a UK-specific issue - not just a consequence of US movements.
https://rapidcharts.io/ https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1575537739302375427/photo/1
Frankly his best bet.
Just to get @Leon excited, NASA is going to be making an IMPORTANT announcement at 4.30 ET.
https://giphy.com/gifs/giffffr-tyttpHduQdg3d6O8jAs
(Actually, it sounds like it might be another servicing mission to Hubble. Which IMO is even more exciting than aliens...)
This, surely, at long bloody last, is the fuck up that the Conservative Party cannot recover from? The difference now between defeat, rout and complete annihilation is the extent to which it can hold the core vote together. Let's put it this way: if we really do have a public sector spending freeze coming then Therese Coffey will have to make sure that a lot of money gets diverted from areas like mental health spending and maternity units to fund more hip and knee replacements.
These are the kind of interesting dilemmas the Tory party presents us with.
Initially he didn't remove the whip either.
The fundamental difficulty Truss has is that her belief and conviction that she is taking the 'difficult decisions' necessary to return the country to 'growth' is completely undermined by the reaction of the markets. All the volatility that is driving up interest rates etc is now linked to her plan for large scale tax cuts which largely benefit the extremely rich. It just seems to me to be politically suicidal.
I also want her to sack Kwasi during party conference though
This poll is a masterpiece and work of art that should be enjoyed, lovingly treasured and not underplayed, though.
“This is a message for possibly the best supporters in the world. We need a 12th man. Where are you? Where are you? Let’s be having you! Come on!”
https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1575539508543688722
And tomorrow will be ensuring he's up to speed so that he can return to his old job in a couple of years time..
He demands Cabinet meet urgently to decide a Plan B ‘which can hold’ https://twitter.com/georgefreemanmp/status/1575537660570918912
I fear he may since have been eclipsed, at least on the competence front.
Would the bounce be enough?
In the words of Norman Lamont on Black Wednesday: “today has been a very difficult day”. These are not circumstances beyond the control of Govt/Treasury . They were authored there. This inept madness cannot go on
https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1575103341482627072?s=20&t=1HXSFG2luh72sixu0IG8ow
Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
Tory members wanted Badenoch, it was Tory MPs who put Truss in the last 2 instead
And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
I suppose you’re correct on the ‘vast majority’ front but surely it’s more likely that the Lib Dems would get about 50-60 seats if the Tories polled this low, than to be in the 20s-30s?
I just can’t see the South West going as red as that map.
The YouGov Scottish sub-sample breaks 38% Lab, SNP 44%, 10% Con, 2% Libs, 4% Green. Our SNP posters are always telling us that only YouGov properly weight their Scottish sample, so let's use that sub sample in the EC model.
The Scottish seat allocation from EC is then SNP 45, Lab 12, Others 0.
In the overall EC model, using the GB totals plus those splits for Scotland, it's then Lab 578, SNP 45, LD 5, Green 1, Plaid 1, Con 1.
However removing Blair was suicide for Labour as removing Boris has now been shown to be suicide for the Tories
But they wouldn’t have it & steamrollered ahead, trashing everything instead. Madness.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1575540453004410880
In my constituency there is no point in voting Labour. If you want the Tory out (and he's not a very good MP) only an LD vote makes any sense. It's still unlikely they would win of course, but each day of Liz and Kwasi enhances the possibilty.
These arent serious people.
FFS unless a change is made or a new option comes along put me in the draft Keir column (but fuck Clive Lewis!)