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Truss isn’t working – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xP said:
    Labour 500, Conservative 60???

    That would be a terrible result for Britain. You might as well make the place a one party state.
    It depends how far the Tories are willing to repent between now and the GE. I would like to see some apologies and commitment to a broader range of ideas, in which case would hope the Tories are 200+ in opposition.

    If they stay ideological representing a sliver of society, then they only deserve a sliver of the seats in parliament.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Scott_xP said:

    Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1575535640078389268

    >
    Scott_xP said:

    Latest opinion polls are devastating for PM Truss. Devastating. I doubt there’s any coming back from this. Especially since the mortgage misery hasn’t even begun.

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/157

    5535640078389268



    Once mortgage deals were being pulled and mortgage interest rates soared it was all over
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Scott_xP said:
    Labour 500, Conservative 60???

    That would be a terrible result for Britain. You might as well make the place a one party state.
    We would have to fight Epping Forest like a marginal seat but Dame Eleanor should scrape home
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056
    DougSeal said:

    carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    I see this a lot on Twitter. He was very unpopular and lied about the appointment of Chris Pincher. Well, it was a combination of things, it’s just possible that less than a year ago he’d just let Paterson do his 30 days he’d still be here. But it wasn’t the cake.
    Are you talking about his unpopularity in the parliamentary party? Then I think you are right. In the country, though, which has a secondary effect on the party, it was the cake wot done it.
  • What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.

    Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Her conference speech is still going to be: "You are all wrong and let me tell you why I am right", isn't it?
    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1575536820112265230
  • carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    If he had still been popular they wouldn't have got rid of him.
    And if that were all he had done it would have been a mistake. The reality was he was the most dishonest and incompetent individual ever to have held high office. It was absolutely right to depose him. The mistake was not doing it sooner.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Made me smile...

    "Just when will Jeremy Corbyn take responsibility for this chaos and resign as ex-leader of the party in opposition for 12 years?"

    https://twitter.com/sirmichaeltaker/status/1575536362878513154?s=20&t=b03hP3PtlHDyWjGMji-8qQ
  • You can see why Starmer rejected electoral reform.
  • carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    I think you'll find that he lied and grifted; wine and cake are not illegal per se.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    You can see why Starmer rejected electoral reform.

    Needs to be in the Tory manifesto though.
  • HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    Calm the nerves? Are you kidding? Truss can't speak to anyone without sending gilt yields higher. Her and Kwarteng genuinely believe they are right and the rest of the world are wrong. Such sneering arrogance will make things worse, not better.
    This is going to make IDS’ final conference look like a roaring success.

    Fizzy Lizzy is here to stay and she’s turning up the interest rates!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    Absolutely - both resign or you and thousands of conservatives in office will be out of office for decades
    Why would I resign, if you resign you don't get a vote in the next leadership election. I can feed through comments to my MP though as they will push the PM for action and have a vote in any VONC
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.

    Looking forward to Truss's conference speech bounce.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Her conference speech is still going to be: "You are all wrong and let me tell you why I am right", isn't it?
    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1575536820112265230

    Yep. She’s got nowt left but the “You turn if you want to” route.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.

    I would usually agree with you there but I don't think that's true this time.

    This is all about the sudden realisation of how bad a screw up last Friday's mini budget was..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    Absolutely - both resign or you and thousands of conservatives in office will be out of office for decades
    Why would I resign, if you resign you don't get a vote in the next leadership election. I can feed through comments to my MP though as they will push the PM for action and have a vote in any VONC
    Ahah! You are Kwasi! I knew it!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,169
    edited September 2022
    One reassuring thing about these polls is they show the British electorate is not yet as divided on partisan lines as America. That kind of polling would be impossible there. Only really Scotland (and NI obvs) where the divide is more sticky.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Interesting charts from @RD_Economist.
    I esp like this one, showing the divergence between UK & US government bond yields.
    It’s a pretty useful illustration of the extent to which this is a UK-specific issue - not just a consequence of US movements.

    https://rapidcharts.io/ https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1575537739302375427/photo/1
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089
    edited September 2022
    That'll be the Aaron Bell For Newcastle under Lyme (only tangentally associated with the Conservatives) Party.

    Frankly his best bet.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Dom Cum was uncharacteristically understated in describing Truss wasn't he?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    He wasn't popular, it wasn't over a glass of wine, it was he lied about knowing Chris Pincher was Pincher by name, Pincher by habit.
    Boris never polled anywhere near this badly and Pincher had the whip removed before Boris resigned
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Pro_Rata said:

    The two Tories slated to survive are John Lamont and David Mundell in D&G.

    Surely just an artefact of Scottish calculation.

    They'd be gone too.

    0 MPs would complete the Tories' conversion into a Farage party.

    LDs historically strong in the first's seat, the second being Alister Jack surely with the SNP being very close. or if Mr M is indeed meant in DCT, the SNP is jnot so close. Only 8 percentage points behind though, so a 5% swing would do it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited September 2022
    Off-topic:

    Just to get @Leon excited, NASA is going to be making an IMPORTANT announcement at 4.30 ET.

    https://giphy.com/gifs/giffffr-tyttpHduQdg3d6O8jAs

    (Actually, it sounds like it might be another servicing mission to Hubble. Which IMO is even more exciting than aliens...)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    Already too late. Firstly, the new top team has made a dreadful first impression on the electorate and will have been written off by most of them. Secondly, if they press on with the slash spending and give the money to the rich agenda it will just confirm the general impression that the Tories are total shits. Thirdly, if they reverse ferret their policy platform is dead in the water and it's likely it won't do anything to calm the febrile money markets because it will reveal them to be rudderless and clueless.

    This, surely, at long bloody last, is the fuck up that the Conservative Party cannot recover from? The difference now between defeat, rout and complete annihilation is the extent to which it can hold the core vote together. Let's put it this way: if we really do have a public sector spending freeze coming then Therese Coffey will have to make sure that a lot of money gets diverted from areas like mental health spending and maternity units to fund more hip and knee replacements.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.

    Looking forward to Truss's conference speech bounce.
    Her talking to a couple of cleaners who just take pity and say 'take your time dear, we will be having a tea over there when you're done'
  • I reckon there will be quite a few shy Tories in the polls after this embarrassing week. So they are probably on more like 23 or 24 than 21.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    Absolutely - both resign or you and thousands of conservatives in office will be out of office for decades
    Why would I resign, if you resign you don't get a vote in the next leadership election. I can feed through comments to my MP though as they will push the PM for action and have a vote in any VONC
    I am not suggesting you do resign, the electorate will do it for all those standing as a conservative, and any attempt to mitigate this Truss and Kwarteng need to go now
  • pingping Posts: 3,724

    OMG I thought he was one of the more sensible Tories?
    As I pointed out at the time, he made a big error turning on Boris. Hopefully, after the election he’ll be back on PB and can post freely. I wonder if he regrets it?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Here’s a story about the little-known Tory MPs’ WhatsApp group called the Treasury Support Group

    Usually it’s quite, um, supportive.

    Today Kwasi Kwarteng used it to plead with colleagues for their support after market turmoil and calls for his head.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/under-fire-kwarteng-tries-to-calm-uk-tories-with-vow-to-listen

    That is interesting because it chimes with the Rory/AC podcast and somewhere else talking about Kwasi from way back, saying he does not listen.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    carnforth said:

    DougSeal said:

    carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    I see this a lot on Twitter. He was very unpopular and lied about the appointment of Chris Pincher. Well, it was a combination of things, it’s just possible that less than a year ago he’d just let Paterson do his 30 days he’d still be here. But it wasn’t the cake.
    Are you talking about his unpopularity in the parliamentary party? Then I think you are right. In the country, though, which has a secondary effect on the party, it was the cake wot done it.
    No, you said he was a popular prime minister, our survey said -



  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.
    Maybe it was a mistake thinking a compulsive liar wasn't a fit person to be prime minister, just because his successor has turned out to be - words fail me ...

    These are the kind of interesting dilemmas the Tory party presents us with.
  • HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    He wasn't popular, it wasn't over a glass of wine, it was he lied about knowing Chris Pincher was Pincher by name, Pincher by habit.
    Boris never polled anywhere near this badly and Pincher had the whip removed before Boris resigned
    But he lied, and made ministers repeat that lie.

    Initially he didn't remove the whip either.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    Andy_JS said:

    Am I the only person who thinks it's far too early to be making judgements about the Truss government?

    I would agree with you, but I think her disappearance over the past few days shows that she is well out of her depth.

    The fundamental difficulty Truss has is that her belief and conviction that she is taking the 'difficult decisions' necessary to return the country to 'growth' is completely undermined by the reaction of the markets. All the volatility that is driving up interest rates etc is now linked to her plan for large scale tax cuts which largely benefit the extremely rich. It just seems to me to be politically suicidal.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,168

    You can see why Starmer rejected electoral reform.

    On 54%, Labour gets an outright majority under any form of PR too.
  • What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.

    Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.

    You can't stick "fuck the Tories" voting into a nationwide algorithm. People will vote for whichever sane candidate is best placed to remove the loonies. And in an awful lot of seats that is the LibDems.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    You can see why Starmer rejected electoral reform.

    We need it to have a UK opposition
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Andy_JS said:

    Am I the only person who thinks it's far too early to be making judgements about the Truss government?

    They’ve had buckets of shit poured over them constantly for a week. It’s no surprise the numbers are terrible. Some of it is self inflicted, but not all.
  • Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Keir Starmer has a lead over Liz Truss as best PM among the over 65s, 32-28.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    I kinda want to watch her speech now, in a "You'll never get another chance" way

    I also want her to sack Kwasi during party conference though

    :)
  • Scott_xP said:

    I kinda want to watch her speech now, in a "You'll never get another chance" way

    I also want her to sack Kwasi during party conference though

    :)

    Will she even make it to her speech?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Very risky time of history for people verifying their health by saying who the monarch or prime minister is.
    https://twitter.com/RachaelKrishna/status/1575536762033938437

    In one case, it'll be simple confusion. In the other, recalling who the office holder is will do quite a bit of harm to one's mental health.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    ping said:

    OMG I thought he was one of the more sensible Tories?
    As I pointed out at the time, he made a big error turning on Boris. Hopefully, after the election he’ll be back on PB and can post freely. I wonder if he regrets it?
    Nah, his error was supporting Truss
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited September 2022

    I reckon there will be quite a few shy Tories in the polls after this embarrassing week. So they are probably on more like 23 or 24 than 21.

    Yes, I agree around the low-to-mid 20's I think, and as I predicted last night, after seeing so many tory switchers here on PB.

    This poll is a masterpiece and work of art that should be enjoyed, lovingly treasured and not underplayed, though.
  • With the conference coming up, and just how painfully tone deaf the sneering will be, that poll lead could be 50 this time next week.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773
    Scott_xP said:

    I kinda want to watch her speech now, in a "You'll never get another chance" way

    I also want her to sack Kwasi during party conference though

    :)

    She’s going to go full Delia Smith in her conference speech:

    “This is a message for possibly the best supporters in the world. We need a 12th man. Where are you? Where are you? Let’s be having you! Come on!”
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    With Tory MPs now breaking cover There seem to be two choices now for Truss. Sack her chancellor, then backtrack and hope the buck stops with him. Or backtrack first and then see how things look. Both are terrible but both involve a u-turn.
    https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1575539508543688722
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    ping said:

    OMG I thought he was one of the more sensible Tories?
    As I pointed out at the time, he made a big error turning on Boris. Hopefully, after the election he’ll be back on PB and can post freely. I wonder if he regrets it?
    Nah, his error was supporting Truss
    I suspect he's going to be told that a lot of times tonight.

    And tomorrow will be ensuring he's up to speed so that he can return to his old job in a couple of years time..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.

    Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.

    You can't stick "fuck the Tories" voting into a nationwide algorithm. People will vote for whichever sane candidate is best placed to remove the loonies. And in an awful lot of seats that is the LibDems.
    Thank goodness you're spelling loonies right. I keep feeling there are too many Doric farmworkers being maligned on PB.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.

    Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.

    Alternatively, evidence of mass scale tactical voting intent, where the Lib Dems are still working to recover from the damage of the Coalition, and Labour is therefore the weapon of choice for anti-Tories in the vast majority of Conservative-held seats.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Govt’s economic plan ‘clearly can’t command market or voter confidence’, says Tory MP George Freeman

    He demands Cabinet meet urgently to decide a Plan B ‘which can hold’
    https://twitter.com/georgefreemanmp/status/1575537660570918912
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited September 2022

    Off-topic:

    Just to get @Leon excited, NASA is going to be making an IMPORTANT announcement at 4.30 ET.

    https://giphy.com/gifs/giffffr-tyttpHduQdg3d6O8jAs

    (Actually, it sounds like it might be another servicing mission to Hubble. Which IMO is even more exciting than aliens...)

    US forces spotted woke aliens hunkered down in the Baltic when they went to blow up Nordstream?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,919

    carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    If he had still been popular they wouldn't have got rid of him.
    And if that were all he had done it would have been a mistake. The reality was he was the most dishonest and incompetent individual ever to have held high office. It was absolutely right to depose him. The mistake was not doing it sooner.
    Small correction: he was the most dishonest and incompetent individual ever to have held high office /at the time/.

    I fear he may since have been eclipsed, at least on the competence front.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Utterly insane to cram that mini budget in. Could have spent conference talking up a growth strategy, got an OBR forecast and done it next week. Kantar shows where they could have been fighting from. All gone. Its over for them. Idiots. Clueless.
  • It’s still far more likely that if we were facing these type of polls in 2023/2024, they’d ditch Truss for eg. Wallace, and tell him “You’re not going to win, but you need to at least make it so we have 200 MPs and actually have a chance in 2029”.

    Would the bounce be enough?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    I reckon there will be quite a few shy Tories in the polls after this embarrassing week. So they are probably on more like 23 or 24 than 21.

    Yes, I agree around the low-to-mid 20's, I think, and as I predicted last night, after seeing so many tory switchers here on PB.

    This poll is a masterpiece and work of art that should be enjoyed, lovingly treasured and not underplayed, though.
    It hangs in the gallery alongside Mori's "Con gain Glasgow" poll...
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    Absolutely - both resign or you and thousands of conservatives in office will be out of office for decades
    Why would I resign, if you resign you don't get a vote in the next leadership election. I can feed through comments to my MP though as they will push the PM for action and have a vote in any VONC
    Stopping the 80,000 idiots who voted for Truss from voting again might be seen as a positive by most people
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,168
    boulay said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I kinda want to watch her speech now, in a "You'll never get another chance" way

    I also want her to sack Kwasi during party conference though

    :)

    She’s going to go full Delia Smith in her conference speech:

    “This is a message for possibly the best supporters in the world. We need a 12th man. Where are you? Where are you? Let’s be having you! Come on!”
    If the polls stay, the Parliamentary Conservative Party will struggle to put up a football team.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    pigeon said:

    What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.

    Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.

    Alternatively, evidence of mass scale tactical voting intent, where the Lib Dems are still working to recover from the damage of the Coalition, and Labour is therefore the weapon of choice for anti-Tories in the vast majority of Conservative-held seats.
    Especially if one fears that the LDs might be tempted to go into coalition with the Tories again.
  • Can you guess what caused the recent change?


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    My Tory MP's had enough:

    In the words of Norman Lamont on Black Wednesday: “today has been a very difficult day”. These are not circumstances beyond the control of Govt/Treasury . They were authored there. This inept madness cannot go on

    https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1575103341482627072?s=20&t=1HXSFG2luh72sixu0IG8ow
  • Have the two main parties had enough of membership leader voting yet?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Can you guess what caused the recent change?


    US interest rate policy?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    boulay said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I kinda want to watch her speech now, in a "You'll never get another chance" way

    I also want her to sack Kwasi during party conference though

    :)

    She’s going to go full Delia Smith in her conference speech:

    “This is a message for possibly the best supporters in the world. We need a 12th man. Where are you? Where are you? Let’s be having you! Come on!”
    If the polls stay, the Parliamentary Conservative Party will struggle to put up a football team.
    I was actually thinking of the present Mum gave me when I was in a bedsit - Ms Smith's cookbook 'One is Fun'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Off-topic:

    Just to get @Leon excited, NASA is going to be making an IMPORTANT announcement at 4.30 ET.

    https://giphy.com/gifs/giffffr-tyttpHduQdg3d6O8jAs

    (Actually, it sounds like it might be another servicing mission to Hubble. Which IMO is even more exciting than aliens...)

    If that’s SpaceX off the back of the Axiom spacewalk, look for exploding heads in Congress. Trips to the space station are one thing. Space walks would mean accepting the new SpaceX suits for EVA. And they’ve just punted billions to the usual suspects for suits….
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left

    Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied
  • Can you guess what caused the recent change?


    Has Corbyn replaced Starmer and finally explained all?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    If it had been the early 2010s with near-zero global interest rates and little movement in exchange rates, they might have survived, but you can't mess around with a 8% deficit when Fed rates are heading for 3-4% and the impacts of stupid policies are now felt immediately rather than gradually.
  • Can you guess what caused the recent change?


    US interest rate policy?
    Mark Harper skewering Sir Keir Starmer over the windfall tax innit!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Have the two main parties had enough of membership leader voting yet?

    That voting also produced Blair, Cameron, Boris and Starmer don't forget.

    Tory members wanted Badenoch, it was Tory MPs who put Truss in the last 2 instead
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited September 2022

    Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left

    Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied

    Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...

    And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
  • pigeon said:

    What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.

    Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.

    Alternatively, evidence of mass scale tactical voting intent, where the Lib Dems are still working to recover from the damage of the Coalition, and Labour is therefore the weapon of choice for anti-Tories in the vast majority of Conservative-held seats.
    Hmmm, I think I side more with @RochdalePioneers take, especially given that we’ve had a couple of years of Labour and the LD’s giving each other seats on a relatively equal basis.

    I suppose you’re correct on the ‘vast majority’ front but surely it’s more likely that the Lib Dems would get about 50-60 seats if the Tories polled this low, than to be in the 20s-30s?

    I just can’t see the South West going as red as that map.
  • In the thread header, the Labour seat total is woefully understated in the EC prediction based on the YouGov poll. And the Conservative seat total is double what it should be.

    The YouGov Scottish sub-sample breaks 38% Lab, SNP 44%, 10% Con, 2% Libs, 4% Green. Our SNP posters are always telling us that only YouGov properly weight their Scottish sample, so let's use that sub sample in the EC model.

    The Scottish seat allocation from EC is then SNP 45, Lab 12, Others 0.

    In the overall EC model, using the GB totals plus those splits for Scotland, it's then Lab 578, SNP 45, LD 5, Green 1, Plaid 1, Con 1.
  • boulay said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg cleverly reflects a graph of Tory polling from his head to toes. A master of interpretive mime.


    Losing THAT tosser would be the highlight of the Tory wipeout. Of course, they would just put him in the Lords where he could continue to plague the country
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    Oh boy, the YouGov tables.

    The Con lead in over 65s is down to Con 43, Lab 35, LD 6, SNP 5.

    In Leave voters: Con 39, Lab 39.

    In the Midlands, which has been the most resilient bit of the Red Wall for them: Con 23, Lab 53.

    Maybe getting rid of a popular prime minister because he had a glass of wine and a slice of cake was a mistake.

    More likely, though, not picking Rishi was it.
    He wasn't popular, it wasn't over a glass of wine, it was he lied about knowing Chris Pincher was Pincher by name, Pincher by habit.
    Boris never polled anywhere near this badly and Pincher had the whip removed before Boris resigned
    But he lied, and made ministers repeat that lie.

    Initially he didn't remove the whip either.
    So did Blair on a far worse matter of taking us to war.

    However removing Blair was suicide for Labour as removing Boris has now been shown to be suicide for the Tories
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Can you guess what caused the recent change?


    Aliens?
  • I will vote tactically to eject the loons and save the Tory party.

    So, I would vote Labour in JRM or John Redwood's seat but Tory in Jeremy Hunt or Damien Hinds seat.

    JRM's seat might be a difficult decision, Labour and LibDem only 2% apart
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,919

    Utterly insane to cram that mini budget in. Could have spent conference talking up a growth strategy, got an OBR forecast and done it next week. Kantar shows where they could have been fighting from. All gone. Its over for them. Idiots. Clueless.

    This is what’s so astonishing: They could easily have sold this. The treasury clearly told them what would be required & filled in the outline of the process. You can see the advice: tweak the spending a bit, do the OBR, talk a big game about investing in growth. It would have been mostly guff sure, but the markets are used to guff. Guff & blather is what we’re used to.

    But they wouldn’t have it & steamrollered ahead, trashing everything instead. Madness.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ping said:

    OMG I thought he was one of the more sensible Tories?
    As I pointed out at the time, he made a big error turning on Boris. Hopefully, after the election he’ll be back on PB and can post freely. I wonder if he regrets it?
    Because, you said, Boris was going to stay in power and would punish AB by not sending his constituency any goodies. Which, leaving aside the moral implications of seeing politics as a pork barreling sycophancy game, was not a sensational bit of forecasting.
  • Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1575540453004410880
  • Looks like 17% (twice) in May and June 2019 were the lowest poll scores for the Tories under Theresa May. Though that did put them third and fourth.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    eek said:

    This is a fun poll (and hat-tip to CHB for predicting a 20-point lead "and even 30 points"), though in fairness note it is immediately after Starmer's speech, so there's a conference bounce in there.

    I would usually agree with you there but I don't think that's true this time.

    This is all about the sudden realisation of how bad a screw up last Friday's mini budget was..
    Primarily the Government and its dire mistakes, true. But it helps Labour's cause no end that the Leader of the Opposition looks like a halfway plausible Prime Minister rather than a crazed, swivel-eyed maniac, or a malfunctioning robot. It's a low bar, granted, but right now a potential leader who's not even worse than the last one would come as a considerable relief to a weary nation.
  • What is surprising is the Lib Dem figure of 5. You’d have thought more of the ‘Lifelong Tory’ vote would migrate to them.

    Perhaps what we’re seeing is that Labour and Starmer aren’t seen as ‘Remainer/Rejoiners’ anymore. Whereas the Lib Dems in 2022 appear to stand for nothing - if you asked the man on the street, at most they’d think “They’d probably want to rejoin the EU”. No matter what their official policy is, that perception might harm them in places like Cornwall/Devon where they’d normally expect to be the main beneficiaries of a collapsed Tory party.

    You can't stick "fuck the Tories" voting into a nationwide algorithm. People will vote for whichever sane candidate is best placed to remove the loonies. And in an awful lot of seats that is the LibDems.
    Exactly.

    In my constituency there is no point in voting Labour. If you want the Tory out (and he's not a very good MP) only an LD vote makes any sense. It's still unlikely they would win of course, but each day of Liz and Kwasi enhances the possibilty.
  • HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the party conference next week will calm things. However what is clear is the PM and Chancellor need to take decisive action to calm the markets to avoid more terrible polls like this

    Based on today's market reaction, it might calm the markets a bit if Truss just kept her trap shut in order not to make matters even worse.

  • HYUFD said:

    Have the two main parties had enough of membership leader voting yet?

    That voting also produced Blair, Cameron, Boris and Starmer don't forget.

    Tory members wanted Badenoch, it was Tory MPs who put Truss in the last 2 instead
    Blair, Cameron and Starmer would have won comfortably with MPs deciding. Boris is not a positive advert for anything.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    Looks like 17% (twice) in May and June 2019 were the lowest poll scores for the Tories under Theresa May. Though that did put them third and fourth.

    Of course, those were in the context of people thinking about a European Parliament election under list PR.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    eek said:

    Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left

    Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied

    Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...

    And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
    Vote down the Budget....
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    eek said:

    Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left

    Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied

    Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...

    And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
    The 1922 can change the rules. Probably smart now
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    Truss is buggered. Started with limited credibility. Now has nothing left

    Damage limitation now. She needs to be removed and at least the ship steadied

    Until she has been removed the ship can't be steadied...

    And there doesn't appear to be a way to remove her...
    Vote down the Budget....
    And lose the whip?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This is going to be the most excruciating Conference in British political history

    The letters falling off behind May was fun. This will be fun-ereal.

    BTW, who is the current deputy leader if she did have a nervous breakdown?
    Therese Coffey.
    Cripes.....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited September 2022
    Phil said:

    Utterly insane to cram that mini budget in. Could have spent conference talking up a growth strategy, got an OBR forecast and done it next week. Kantar shows where they could have been fighting from. All gone. Its over for them. Idiots. Clueless.

    This is what’s so astonishing: They could easily have sold this. The treasury clearly told them what would be required & filled in the outline of the process. You can see the advice: tweak the spending a bit, do the OBR, talk a big game about investing in growth. It would have been mostly guff sure, but the markets are used to guff. Guff & blather is what we’re used to.

    But they wouldn’t have it & steamrollered ahead, trashing everything instead. Madness.
    Its just unbelievable. Im not against the theory, but the way they did it, the haste, the carelessness, hiding the forecast and the pointless 45p move that does nothing for growth.
    These arent serious people.
    FFS unless a change is made or a new option comes along put me in the draft Keir column (but fuck Clive Lewis!)
  • darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Am I the only person who thinks it's far too early to be making judgements about the Truss government?

    I would agree with you, but I think her disappearance over the past few days shows that she is well out of her depth.

    The fundamental difficulty Truss has is that her belief and conviction that she is taking the 'difficult decisions' necessary to return the country to 'growth' is completely undermined by the reaction of the markets. All the volatility that is driving up interest rates etc is now linked to her plan for large scale tax cuts which largely benefit the extremely rich. It just seems to me to be politically suicidal.
    She is a living embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger Effect
  • Labour are on 36% in the YouGov poll even with the don't knows included.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    I will vote tactically to eject the loons and save the Tory party.

    So, I would vote Labour in JRM or John Redwood's seat but Tory in Jeremy Hunt or Damien Hinds seat.

    JRM's seat might be a difficult decision, Labour and LibDem only 2% apart
    LDs the obvious choice against Redwood.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this is most of the pain is still to come. If Cons are barely above 20% *now*, before the big energy bills, the mortgages go through the roof and the NHS winter crisis, where will they be come Feb 2023?

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1575540453004410880

    That doesn't mention spending cuts.

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Back in the winter, I said I was so done with the Conservatives I wants all of them, all of them, to lose their seats.

    Disappointed to see that there would still be two left on today's polling. Britain, do better.
This discussion has been closed.