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My September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick – politicalbetting.com

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    QUIZ
    Identify the tank.


    It's there, in the middle, on that trailer. The green thing.

    (Bah, beaten to it by @Selebian )
    Is this going to be one of those ultra nerdy PB trick questions, whereby the thing that is very obviously the answer is not in fact the answer?

    So the vehicle that looks the spit of a Matchbox tank I had as a boy turns out to be a pizza delivery van.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,383
    edited September 2022
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Some couples are happy just to sit in silence and just enjoy each's company.

    There are all sorts of silences, from hostile ones to contented ones where people understand each other beyond words.

    I once ate a meal on the next table to a peripheral minor royal and their partner who barely spoke to each other and spent the meal looking miserable.

    Or they could just be really boring people, and we'll suited as a couple.
    Quite often the trick is to get boring people together and leave them to it. There are complicated boring people who only really enjoy being boring with an audience of people who don't want to be bored instead of other boring people. Flight is the only option.

    On the whole boring people like being boring and like being bored. Unless that were true, try to explain most of what is on the telly all day and night? Apparently people watch 28 hours a week or something ridiculous.
    The most boring people are those who talk a lot about other people being boring.
    The most boring people, in fact the scum of the earth IMO, are those who feel compelled to fill any silence or moment of reflection with chatter. I have the odd relative who can't bear silence in a group, even for a few seconds, so fills it with instant inanity. Silence is golden (not all the time, obviously).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    However I lived in Edinburgh in the early 80s and it was debauched gay heaven if you like that sort of thing. Sadly that period coincided with the onset of u-know-what with tragic consequences.

    The subject of Goodwill City by the Mackenzies
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Scott_xP said:

    British 5 year government lending rates in the market, vs the so-called PIGS (the eurozone crisis countries from a decade ago)… UK has just today usurped Italy and Greece with a more expensive cost of credit… what @jfkirkegaard has nicknames #ilsorpasso https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574405076344619008/photo/1

    just need a far right govt to be elected and we have fully turned italian...we already have the PM changing every year or so
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    This article is doing the rounds among Sunak-supporting Tory MPs… https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1574394402155495425/photo/1
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
    One of the most difficult things I've ever done was sitting in a restaurant by myself for the first time. But once you've done it once it doesn't bother you in the slightest from then onwards. Strange.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
    One of the most difficult things I've ever done was sitting in a restaurant by myself for the first time. But once you've done it once it doesn't bother you in the slightest from then onwards. Strange.
    One of the most difficult things you've ever done?

    Really?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    QUIZ
    Identify the tank.


    M1 Abrams variant, not sure which one but it has the 120mm smoothbore cannon so not the very first mark. Not in the UK, Ireland or Japan (unsurprisingly).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    I AM NOT 100% SURE IT WAS ONLY TWO GLASSES OF WINE WITH THE OYSTERS.

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Golly gosh. You truly do think you're all especially and unusually daring and debauched, don't you? lol
    Well yeah. I am. Unless you’ve been to jail on a rape charge
    Not something I would boast about.
    Who’s boasting? It’s a statement of fact
    What was your defence btw? That he consented?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
    One of the most difficult things I've ever done was sitting in a restaurant by myself for the first time. But once you've done it once it doesn't bother you in the slightest from then onwards. Strange.
    I think it would be amazing to sit in a restaurant or somesuch on your own with a book/the paper. The height of indulgence.
  • Scott_xP said:

    However I lived in Edinburgh in the early 80s and it was debauched gay heaven if you like that sort of thing. Sadly that period coincided with the onset of u-know-what with tragic consequences.

    The subject of Goodwill City by the Mackenzies
    Mmm, Shirley. They were regulars at one of my haunts, the City Cafe
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    Nothing wrong with dining alone. I enjoy it too.
    And do you spend the meal in a fug of contempt for the conversation and appearance of those around you?
    Only if they're talking unusually loudly.
    Oh god, that thing where you have a table really close to the next one and can hear everything they say. Nothing worse.
    Oh, I'm pretty good at tuning out other people's conversations, but above a certain volume...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Scott_xP said:

    However I lived in Edinburgh in the early 80s and it was debauched gay heaven if you like that sort of thing. Sadly that period coincided with the onset of u-know-what with tragic consequences.

    The subject of Goodwill City by the Mackenzies
    Mmm, Shirley. They were regulars at one of my haunts, the City Cafe
    And back on tour (sans Shirley)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
    One of the most difficult things I've ever done was sitting in a restaurant by myself for the first time. But once you've done it once it doesn't bother you in the slightest from then onwards. Strange.
    I think it would be amazing to sit in a restaurant or somesuch on your own with a book/the paper. The height of indulgence.
    You've never done that ??
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090

    - Health: difficult to cut spending materially (although you can save a few billion around the edges with homeopathy, tattoo removal and stuff the Mail hates). More important to reorganise to maximise the health benefit from a certain budget to limit future increases. Reorientate to prevention and sort chronic care / long term nursing (which doesn’t need to be in expensive hospitals) to free up capacity

    Just as a small point, NHS England has pretty much stopped all spending on homeopathy, as of 2018.

    The question to ask is why did they start?
    Homeopathy was more popular back when the NHS formed, so there were five NHS homeopathic hospitals in 1948. Aneurin Bevan gave a personal assurance on the future of homeopathy in the NHS. Homeopathy gradually fell out of favour with a greater focus on evidence-based medicine.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    In what world is the solution to Liz Truss' premiership another Tory leadership race?

    Like, what has happened to PMs and their power that they (Johnson didn't do it either) aren't using a GE as a tool to whip their party?

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1574341646799540230?s=46&t=7TD28jRGGwmB0wa16un2YA&fbclid=IwAR3FFDeCkR_XGd-cLxDhRqad55RbQ-YMTfltVb2p9D8ipU65L2e6Tlv2ZWM

    The solution is not another leadership race

    The solution is defenestrating Truss
    I doubted you would be a fan of a Johnson coronation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Umicore Launches Europe’s First Battery Materials Gigafactory In Poland
    It has the potential to supply enough cathode active materials for over 200 GWh of battery cells annually.
    https://insideevs.com/news/612492/umicore-battery-materials-gigafactory-poland/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Some couples are happy just to sit in silence and just enjoy each's company.

    There are all sorts of silences, from hostile ones to contented ones where people understand each other beyond words.

    I once ate a meal on the next table to a peripheral minor royal and their partner who barely spoke to each other and spent the meal looking miserable.

    Or they could just be really boring people, and we'll suited as a couple.
    Quite often the trick is to get boring people together and leave them to it. There are complicated boring people who only really enjoy being boring with an audience of people who don't want to be bored instead of other boring people. Flight is the only option.

    On the whole boring people like being boring and like being bored. Unless that were true, try to explain most of what is on the telly all day and night? Apparently people watch 28 hours a week or something ridiculous.
    The most boring people are those who talk a lot about other people being boring.
    The most boring people, in fact the scum of the earth IMO, are those who feel compelled to fill any silence or moment of reflection with chatter. I have the odd relative who can't bear silence in a group, even for a few seconds, so fills it with instant inanity. Silence is golden (not all the time, obviously).
    Ah, I know what you mean but I don't mind that so much because it comes from social unease and I have a lot of time for social unease.

    You know those people who are said to be "comfortable in their own skin"? ... that can be a mixed blessing imo. For those around them, I mean.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    In what world is the solution to Liz Truss' premiership another Tory leadership race?

    Like, what has happened to PMs and their power that they (Johnson didn't do it either) aren't using a GE as a tool to whip their party?

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1574341646799540230?s=46&t=7TD28jRGGwmB0wa16un2YA&fbclid=IwAR3FFDeCkR_XGd-cLxDhRqad55RbQ-YMTfltVb2p9D8ipU65L2e6Tlv2ZWM

    The solution is not another leadership race

    The solution is defenestrating Truss
    I doubted you would be a fan of a Johnson coronation.
    If they want a former PM to step into the breach, May is the only option
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    edited September 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
    One of the most difficult things I've ever done was sitting in a restaurant by myself for the first time. But once you've done it once it doesn't bother you in the slightest from then onwards. Strange.
    I think it would be amazing to sit in a restaurant or somesuch on your own with a book/the paper. The height of indulgence.
    Once you get used to it (as I’ve had to, writing about the world for the Knappers Gazette) then it become a positive delight. @AndyJS is quite right

    I honestly prefer it, quite often, to dining with friends/lovers/family

    You can argue on PB. You can chat on your phone. You can stare out the window. Or read a book or a paper. There’s no hassle with the bill (often I’m not paying of course but that’s not essential) It’s delightful. Seriously. And you can overhear conversations and guess the life stories or try to work out how that tedious closet gay accountant hasn’t induced suicide in his long suffering Hampstead wife

    And then when you do have a meal with friends and family it is all the more appealing, interesting etc

    But this DOES make meals with boring people really hard to take. I want them to fuck off in short order
  • Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    In what world is the solution to Liz Truss' premiership another Tory leadership race?

    Like, what has happened to PMs and their power that they (Johnson didn't do it either) aren't using a GE as a tool to whip their party?

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1574341646799540230?s=46&t=7TD28jRGGwmB0wa16un2YA&fbclid=IwAR3FFDeCkR_XGd-cLxDhRqad55RbQ-YMTfltVb2p9D8ipU65L2e6Tlv2ZWM

    The solution is not another leadership race

    The solution is defenestrating Truss
    I doubted you would be a fan of a Johnson coronation.
    If they want a former PM to step into the breach, May is the only option
    Not the man under whom "the UK was seen as pretty much the safest country in the G7 against default"?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    Nothing wrong with dining alone. I enjoy it too.
    And do you spend the meal in a fug of contempt for the conversation and appearance of those around you?
    Only if they're talking unusually loudly.
    Oh god, that thing where you have a table really close to the next one and can hear everything they say. Nothing worse.
    Oh, I'm pretty good at tuning out other people's conversations, but above a certain volume...
    I feel a PB analogy coming on but I'll refrain ... :smile:
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    DavidL said:

    I wonder how high sterling has to go before the BBC take down their headlines about it crashing to its lowest level etc.

    Should point out the pound only backtracked on earlier losses because of a market assumption that the BoE will intervene to shore up interest rates. Expectation now is that bank lending rates will go to 6% over the next year (was 4% last Thursday).

    Which means Kwarteng has made people's mortgages about 50% more expensive than they would otherwise be because of his budget,

    I don't see how they survive this. (But who knows?)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.




  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    given the current high inflation rate, could bookies get away with betting overbroke in the 2024 US election markets? even if you end up paying out say 101% of what you took, after 2+ years inflation in today's value it could be well under 90%.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Anyway, enough of this "boring people" talk - I have to skidaddle now and do my company tax and accounts filing. Deadline this week.
  • kjh said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    You want to bump off the old, the infirm, the obese and now the boring. Soon there will be no one bloody left.
    Hot teen girls. They'll be spared.
    Doubly so if the old and lecherous are gone.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,383
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
    One of the most difficult things I've ever done was sitting in a restaurant by myself for the first time. But once you've done it once it doesn't bother you in the slightest from then onwards. Strange.
    I think it would be amazing to sit in a restaurant or somesuch on your own with a book/the paper. The height of indulgence.
    Once you get used to it (as I’ve had to, writing about the world for the Knappers Gazette) then it become a positive delight. @AndyJS is quite right

    I honestly prefer it, quite often, to dining with friends/lovers/family

    You can argue on PB. You can chat on your phone. You can stare out the window. Or read a book or a paper. There’s no hassle with the bill (often I’m not paying of course but that’s not essential) It’s delightful. Seriously. And you can overhear conversations and guess the life stories or try to work out how that tedious closet gay accountant hasn’t induced suicide in his long suffering Hampstead wife

    And then when you do have a meal with friends and family it is all the more appealing, interesting etc

    But this DOES make meals with boring people really hard to take. I want them to fuck off in short order
    Other than the last sentence, agree completely. When working I ate out alone much of the time (the other option being hotel room service, which I'd never do). Great for people watching, eavesdropping and trying to work out people's biographies, spotting clandestine affairs, and doing the crossword (Guardian cryptic, of course).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829
    The City is expecting Bailey to make a statement after market close today, I wonder what happens if he doesn't and then doesn't by the end of the week. It could be parity by Friday.
  • Carnyx said:

    QUIZ
    Identify the tank.


    M1 Abrams variant, not sure which one but it has the 120mm smoothbore cannon so not the very first mark. Not in the UK, Ireland or Japan (unsurprisingly).
    Ah, I thought it might be a Challenger tank. I knew it wasn't any of the tanks Poland had at the start of the year.

    Was spotted in Poland, heading towards Ukraine. Google tells me some older variant Abrams tanks have been delivered to Poland for training, before they take delivery of the M1A2 SEPv3 tanks next year, some of which are in Poland as part of a US brigade.
  • given the current high inflation rate, could bookies get away with betting overbroke in the 2024 US election markets? even if you end up paying out say 101% of what you took, after 2+ years inflation in today's value it could be well under 90%.

    unless bookies get a return of equal to inflation on that money held , why would they?
  • Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
    One of the most difficult things I've ever done was sitting in a restaurant by myself for the first time. But once you've done it once it doesn't bother you in the slightest from then onwards. Strange.
    I don't mind the time when I'm actually eating. It is the festering between ordering and the food turning up that is tedious.

    At least these days I can "Do a Leon" and distract myself with PB. And of course the situation only arises on work trips so the food and "a maximum of one alcoholic drink" is free.
  • darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    Why focus on new build costs? The vast majority of homes on the market are not new builds, which in a rational market should command a premium, all things being equal.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Why as one of a married couple, I am not massively into restaurant dinners a deux. We don't store our conversation for the occasion, but we do interact in rather nice ways during the day.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    MaxPB said:

    The City is expecting Bailey to make a statement after market close today, I wonder what happens if he doesn't and then doesn't by the end of the week. It could be parity by Friday.

    Surely Bailey has to make a statement that reflects a something that both he and Kwasi agree with. Otherwise we will be in a position where 1 side of the country's economic leadership is saying something different to the other side.

  • Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
    One of the most difficult things I've ever done was sitting in a restaurant by myself for the first time. But once you've done it once it doesn't bother you in the slightest from then onwards. Strange.
    Yes, but he's not really doing that. He's sitting by himself in a restaurant and going on t'Internet and screaming "LOOK AT MEEEEEE!"

    He's bored, and boring.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    edited September 2022
    The Guardian can't find much 'far right' Mussolinism in new new Italian set up. I'm not sure there is much to fear. The 'far right' bit looks like a slight over generalisation.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/26/eu-giorgia-meloni-true-political-identity-italy-elections-far-right
  • Nigelb said:

    Umicore Launches Europe’s First Battery Materials Gigafactory In Poland
    It has the potential to supply enough cathode active materials for over 200 GWh of battery cells annually.
    https://insideevs.com/news/612492/umicore-battery-materials-gigafactory-poland/

    I can't stand that word. It is a factory.

    Up there with Jumbulance in my list of despised words.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited September 2022
    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    Why focus on new build costs? The vast majority of homes on the market are not new builds, which in a rational market should command a premium, all things being equal.
    I expect newbuilds do command a premium on a sq metre basis....
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    given the current high inflation rate, could bookies get away with betting overbroke in the 2024 US election markets? even if you end up paying out say 101% of what you took, after 2+ years inflation in today's value it could be well under 90%.

    unless bookies get a return of equal to inflation on that money held , why would they?
    hmmm. i assumed that as the customer is definitely missing out by giving his stakes interest free to the bookmaker for 2 years somebody else must be benefiting and the bookmaker is the only other party in the deal.
  • kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Some couples are happy just to sit in silence and just enjoy each's company.

    There are all sorts of silences, from hostile ones to contented ones where people understand each other beyond words.

    I once ate a meal on the next table to a peripheral minor royal and their partner who barely spoke to each other and spent the meal looking miserable.

    Or they could just be really boring people, and we'll suited as a couple.
    Quite often the trick is to get boring people together and leave them to it. There are complicated boring people who only really enjoy being boring with an audience of people who don't want to be bored instead of other boring people. Flight is the only option.

    On the whole boring people like being boring and like being bored. Unless that were true, try to explain most of what is on the telly all day and night? Apparently people watch 28 hours a week or something ridiculous.
    The most boring people are those who talk a lot about other people being boring.
    The most boring people, in fact the scum of the earth IMO, are those who feel compelled to fill any silence or moment of reflection with chatter. I have the odd relative who can't bear silence in a group, even for a few seconds, so fills it with instant inanity. Silence is golden (not all the time, obviously).
    I dont think that fair - unless the person is so non-stop they do not allow others into the conversation. You do need talkers in a group but they have to be good talkers - engaging ones. Mind you the silence can be golden rule is definitely more applicable to sport or event commentary - A disturbing trend over recent years is the over hyping and explaining and analysis of sport by a commentator - A trend imported from the USA generally. REAL commentators like Richie Benaud or Peter Aliss who only spoke when they felt they could value to a situation beyond what the viewers saw or woudl reasonably be expected to work out themselves (OK Peters one indulgence beyond this was to do shout outs to his ill golf club mates usually from the army ) would not get hired today
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited September 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    "Fascist" removes any confusion.
  • MaxPB said:

    The City is expecting Bailey to make a statement after market close today, I wonder what happens if he doesn't and then doesn't by the end of the week. It could be parity by Friday.

    Parity with the Loony?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041
    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?
  • darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.




    £250,000 to build a house, how big a house are you talking about?
  • Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    "Fascist" removes any confusion.
    You can't have fascism without a Duce.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    Been a few similar stories over the last few days so it's highly possible something is afoot.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    He's got covid? Thats what hes done to his nation for the last two years...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    What would be the reason? The extreme nature of the Covid lockdowns perhaps.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
    One of the most difficult things I've ever done was sitting in a restaurant by myself for the first time. But once you've done it once it doesn't bother you in the slightest from then onwards. Strange.
    I don't mind the time when I'm actually eating. It is the festering between ordering and the food turning up that is tedious.

    At least these days I can "Do a Leon" and distract myself with PB. And of course the situation only arises on work trips so the food and "a maximum of one alcoholic drink" is free.
    Presumably a bottle of wine counts as 'one' alcoholic drink, so that's not too bad.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    Been doing the rounds on twitter for about a week, to general derision.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    The City is expecting Bailey to make a statement after market close today, I wonder what happens if he doesn't and then doesn't by the end of the week. It could be parity by Friday.

    Surely Bailey has to make a statement that reflects a something that both he and Kwasi agree with. Otherwise we will be in a position where 1 side of the country's economic leadership is saying something different to the other side.

    Difficult to see them cobbling together a statement they both agree on. This isn't a situation where they can get a Malcolm Tucker like SpAd to go and shout at a civil servant and get them to make some pre-prepared statement. The governor will say what he wants and if he doesn't agree with the fiscal loosening he may well say so.
  • slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    Iran. China. Russia. The list of totalitarian states apparently in the middle of uprisings gets longer...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    £250,000 to build a house, how big a house are you talking about?
    Can people read what other people have written ??

    "If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house. "
  • eek said:

    slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    Been a few similar stories over the last few days so it's highly possible something is afoot.
    There's been a lot of rubbish on twitter about this, using old footage of Chinese military vehicles.

    Generally speaking when something like this happens it's everywhere within half a day. In the first few hours it might be just a few dodgy looking rumours on twitter, but if it's actually happened that can only last so long before a massive wave of evidence emerges.

    So I reckon, not this time.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    Rather than putting labels first, put actual policies and actual actions and legislation first; then decide where they fit.

    From the history of the Labour party you could call them 'socialist' or even 'hard socialist'. But that would be wrong about how they are on the whole now. Same with this lot. Wait and see what they actually do. Ignore completely what they and their enemies say.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    There were rumours of that earlier in the week, with claims all flights into and out of Beijing had been stopped and tanks were on the streets.

    I checked FlightRadar.

    Flights into and out of Beijing were proceeding perfectly normally.

    What is more interesting is the suggestion that Hu Jintao is very annoyed with Xi for seeking a third term and has been orchestrating opposition to him. That might yet cause Xi issues.
  • algarkirk said:

    The Guardian can't find much 'far right' Mussolinism in new new Italian set up. I'm not sure there is much to fear. The 'far right' bit looks like a slight over generalisation.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/26/eu-giorgia-meloni-true-political-identity-italy-elections-far-right

    Wait for it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    The City is expecting Bailey to make a statement after market close today, I wonder what happens if he doesn't and then doesn't by the end of the week. It could be parity by Friday.

    Surely Bailey has to make a statement that reflects a something that both he and Kwasi agree with. Otherwise we will be in a position where 1 side of the country's economic leadership is saying something different to the other side.

    Imagine this FICTIONAL scene;

    Krazy: " The Government will cut more taxes to increase demand and generate growth"

    Bailey: "The Bank of England will increase interest rates by 1.5% with immediate effect to curtail demand driven inflation"

    Now where's that hynmsheet?

  • This is how to handle a mobilisation order:

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574413706594643968
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    algarkirk said:

    The Guardian can't find much 'far right' Mussolinism in new new Italian set up. I'm not sure there is much to fear. The 'far right' bit looks like a slight over generalisation.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/26/eu-giorgia-meloni-true-political-identity-italy-elections-far-right

    Wait for it.
    Agree. Wait.

  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    The City is expecting Bailey to make a statement after market close today, I wonder what happens if he doesn't and then doesn't by the end of the week. It could be parity by Friday.

    Surely Bailey has to make a statement that reflects a something that both he and Kwasi agree with. Otherwise we will be in a position where 1 side of the country's economic leadership is saying something different to the other side.

    Difficult to see them cobbling together a statement they both agree on. This isn't a situation where they can get a Malcolm Tucker like SpAd to go and shout at a civil servant and get them to make some pre-prepared statement. The governor will say what he wants and if he doesn't agree with the fiscal loosening he may well say so.
    dont think we will see a boe statement...they would surely make one before markets close at 4:30
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    Why focus on new build costs? The vast majority of homes on the market are not new builds, which in a rational market should command a premium, all things being equal.
    I am dissenting from the idea that a house price crash has benefits. The end of the newbuild market would not be a 'benefit', it would be an economic disaster, and would mean that no houses get built to meet household formation and demand from migration etc. It probably won't happen because the demand will be met by landlords rich in cash taking advantage of rising rents due to undersupply. It won't help people 'get on the housing ladder', because people on low to medium incomes can't afford to buy any housing at 7% interest rates, they can't even afford to service the interest payments.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    "Fascist" removes any confusion.
    You can't have fascism without a Duce.
    Give her time.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    "Fascist" removes any confusion.
    Would that be neo, proto, crypto, alt-right or just your common-or-garden flavour fascism?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Nigelb said:

    Umicore Launches Europe’s First Battery Materials Gigafactory In Poland
    It has the potential to supply enough cathode active materials for over 200 GWh of battery cells annually.
    https://insideevs.com/news/612492/umicore-battery-materials-gigafactory-poland/

    I can't stand that word. It is a factory.

    Up there with Jumbulance in my list of despised words.
    Like it or not, we're stuck with it.
    And it does differentiate factories of international significance from jet any old factory. Note there's very little sign of lots being built in the UK - unlike in quite a few European countries.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    QUIZ
    Identify the tank.


    I'm not fecking robot ok, just forgot my bloody password again...
    someone on Reddit (courtesy of Tineye) thinks it's an Abrams SEPv2 if that helps.
  • Pulpstar said:

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    £250,000 to build a house, how big a house are you talking about?
    Can people read what other people have written ??

    "If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house. "
    100 sq meters is a small house, maybe 2 bedroom. It does not cost £250,000 to build such a house, especially on an estate where there are lots of very similar houses.

  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    Why focus on new build costs? The vast majority of homes on the market are not new builds, which in a rational market should command a premium, all things being equal.
    I am dissenting from the idea that a house price crash has benefits. The end of the newbuild market would not be a 'benefit', it would be an economic disaster, and would mean that no houses get built to meet household formation and demand from migration etc. It probably won't happen because the demand will be met by landlords rich in cash taking advantage of rising rents due to undersupply. It won't help people 'get on the housing ladder', because people on low to medium incomes can't afford to buy any housing at 7% interest rates, they can't even afford to service the interest payments.
    then if they cant afford housing at 7% interest rates prices would have to crash more....a 50% crash should do it
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    NEW: HMT announce chancellor will set out his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on 23 November.

    “The Fiscal Plan will set out further details on the government’s fiscal rules, including ensuring that debt falls as a share of GDP in the medium-term.”

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1574416590153650178
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    This is how to handle a mobilisation order:

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574413706594643968

    He looks more useful than most of their recruits.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215

    Pulpstar said:

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    £250,000 to build a house, how big a house are you talking about?
    Can people read what other people have written ??

    "If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house. "
    100 sq meters is a small house, maybe 2 bedroom. It does not cost £250,000 to build such a house, especially on an estate where there are lots of very similar houses.

    It's not far off a according to below;

    "The average new build cost per square metre is around £2,387.50"

    https://www.checkatrade.com/blog/cost-guides/building-cost-per-sq-m/
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    edited September 2022

    Pulpstar said:

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    £250,000 to build a house, how big a house are you talking about?
    Can people read what other people have written ??

    "If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house. "
    100 sq meters is a small house, maybe 2 bedroom. It does not cost £250,000 to build such a house, especially on an estate where there are lots of very similar houses.

    £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house would of course be £25k, so numbers way off. £2.5k/sqm sounds very expensive.

    We ended up somehere around £1.8k/sqm for an extension recently, which would give £180k for that size house, but economies of scale on a new build and particularly identikit, of course. Retail price of 2 bed new builds around here would suggest build cost well south of that.

    Edit: per post below from Stocky, looks like we got a bargain!
  • Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    Neither.

    They're advocating quite a big increase in welfare spending, what exactly is "right wing" about them?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829
    Spending review alert!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    NEW @hmtreasury statement, presumably intended to calm markets:
    “The Fiscal Plan will set out further details on the government’s fiscal rules, including ensuring that debt falls as a share of GDP in the medium-term.” https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574417026868707335/photo/1
  • darkage said:

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    Why focus on new build costs? The vast majority of homes on the market are not new builds, which in a rational market should command a premium, all things being equal.
    I am dissenting from the idea that a house price crash has benefits. The end of the newbuild market would not be a 'benefit', it would be an economic disaster, and would mean that no houses get built to meet household formation and demand from migration etc. It probably won't happen because the demand will be met by landlords rich in cash taking advantage of rising rents due to undersupply. It won't help people 'get on the housing ladder', because people on low to medium incomes can't afford to buy any housing at 7% interest rates, they can't even afford to service the interest payments.
    House prices are in some ways a secondary question. The more important objective is to increase the relative position of wages vs debt in the economy.

    Increasing interest rates puts workers and the financially prudent in a stronger position. Some people may end up on the wrong side of market movements as that process works itself out, but it's a necessary adjustment.
  • slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    He's in a restaurant with SeanT. We're just waiting for Sean to upload a photo...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Denmark announce a gas leak in Nord Stream 2 (pressure dropped out inexplicably overnight)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW @hmtreasury statement, presumably intended to calm markets:
    “The Fiscal Plan will set out further details on the government’s fiscal rules, including ensuring that debt falls as a share of GDP in the medium-term.” https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574417026868707335/photo/1

    That has got to be the most unconvincing lie since Dominic Cummings said he drove to Barnard Castle to test his eyesight.
  • darkage said:

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    Why focus on new build costs? The vast majority of homes on the market are not new builds, which in a rational market should command a premium, all things being equal.
    I am dissenting from the idea that a house price crash has benefits. The end of the newbuild market would not be a 'benefit', it would be an economic disaster, and would mean that no houses get built to meet household formation and demand from migration etc. It probably won't happen because the demand will be met by landlords rich in cash taking advantage of rising rents due to undersupply. It won't help people 'get on the housing ladder', because people on low to medium incomes can't afford to buy any housing at 7% interest rates, they can't even afford to service the interest payments.
    Well absolutely.
    This is standard stuff.

    A slow, orderly deflation of prices? Sure.
    An actually crash? Disastrous.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.




    Sadly, I know a lot of architects like you...
  • Another non-budget in November.

    Goody.
  • slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    He's in a restaurant with SeanT. We're just waiting for Sean to upload a photo...
    Perhaps our inebriated flint-knapping colleague will ask Xi for a blowie...?
  • Nigelb said:

    This is how to handle a mobilisation order:

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574413706594643968

    He looks more useful than most of their recruits.
    Yes, he clearly has a plan which he carries out methodically. I'm not sure what the car bit is about though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    edited September 2022
    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are “playing A level economics with people’s lives…”

    A former Tory minister doesn’t hold back, warning last week’s tax-slashing Budget could “crash the economy”

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1574326010052575234

    "Liz is... I can't say the word..."
    "She's .... again, I can't say the word..."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Denmark announce a gas leak in Nord Stream 2 (pressure dropped out inexplicably overnight)

    That's good. We needed somebody to decrease the supply of gas to Europe.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    The Economist is using "nationalist right" to describe Brothers of Italy.

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/09/25/a-crushing-victory-for-italys-nationalist-right
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Nigelb said:

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are “playing A level economics with people’s lives…”

    A former Tory minister doesn’t hold back, warning last week’s tax-slashing Budget could “crash the economy”

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1574326010052575234

    "Liz is... I can't say the word..."

    Silly.

    This isn't a step beyond GCSE.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829

    Another non-budget in November.

    Goody.

    Surely the actual budget no? That's around November or is Kami-Kwasi just going to avoid them altogether so there's no OBR forecast.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: HMT announce chancellor will set out his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on 23 November.

    “The Fiscal Plan will set out further details on the government’s fiscal rules, including ensuring that debt falls as a share of GDP in the medium-term.”

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1574416590153650178

    If we can ratchet up the debt to £500,000b before the rules are to be applied that is easily doable. Like paying a thousand pound fine off at a pound a month.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    He's in a restaurant with SeanT. We're just waiting for Sean to upload a photo...
    Perhaps our inebriated flint-knapping colleague will ask Xi for a blowie...?
    Surely not. Winnie was a Pooh.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Nigelb said:

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are “playing A level economics with people’s lives…”

    A former Tory minister doesn’t hold back, warning last week’s tax-slashing Budget could “crash the economy”

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1574326010052575234

    "Liz is... I can't say the word..."
    "She's .... again, I can't say the word..."

    Does Burley actually cite a name? or is this, as with almost every line of so called tory jitters being reported by the left wing press, unattributed?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    MaxPB said:

    Another non-budget in November.

    Goody.

    Surely the actual budget no? That's around November or is Kami-Kwasi just going to avoid them altogether so there's no OBR forecast.
    It's not the budget, but we get the OBR
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are “playing A level economics with people’s lives…”

    A former Tory minister doesn’t hold back, warning last week’s tax-slashing Budget could “crash the economy”

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1574326010052575234

    "Liz is... I can't say the word..."
    "She's .... again, I can't say the word..."

    Does Burley actually cite a name? or is this, as with almost every line of so called tory jitters being reported by the left wing press, unattributed?
    Shes trawling twitter for gossip live on air
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    MISTY said:

    Nigelb said:

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are “playing A level economics with people’s lives…”

    A former Tory minister doesn’t hold back, warning last week’s tax-slashing Budget could “crash the economy”

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1574326010052575234

    "Liz is... I can't say the word..."
    "She's .... again, I can't say the word..."

    Does Burley actually cite a name? or is this, as with almost every line of so called tory jitters being reported by the left wing press, unattributed?
    Kay Burley doesn't work for the left wing press...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited September 2022
    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    The chancellor has put out an emergency statement to try to reassure markets the deficit and debt will not spiral out of control. He says he will announce “a medium term fiscal plan” on 23 November to ensure public sector debt as a share of national income will fall over an…

    unspecified “medium term”. He has also asked the independent
    @OBR_UK
    to deliver an assessment of his tax and borrowing plans on the same day. This attempt to restore fiscal credibility will be after the Bank of England assesses how much to raise interest rates on 3 November…
    which could generate yet more volatility in the currency and market interest rates. https://gov.uk/government/news/update-on-growth-plan-implementation
This discussion has been closed.