Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

My September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick – politicalbetting.com

15681011

Comments

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    "Brexit is doing lasting damage to our trade and our economy, and it will continue to do so until we have a proper trade deal with the Europeans."

    Conservative grandee Ken Clarke calls out Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng for their disastrous mini budget.
    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1574378475976286209/video/1
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    eek said:

    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
    Overseas aid
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close

    It’s not that long that we were at $1.30. The thing that has ‘happened’ is that we’re now below $1.10, not that it has bounced about a bit below that level.
    It has been nailed to its perch by the expectation of intervention by Bailey. As Bailey is useless it can be confidently predicted that we will see 1.03 again this year if not this week.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    OK, Italian seat prediction should be pretty much on the nose now. The constituencies are pretty much decided with a few stragglers to declare and the in scope votes for proportional counting are fully known.

    Iirc, it does take a little time to calculate and certify how the proportional numbers best map to multimember constituencies and thus which individuals are elected, but we know how many of each party there will be.

    FdI 118 (49 constitiency, 69 proportional), Lega 65 (42, 23),
    FI 45 (23, 22),
    Moderates 7 (7,0)
    = 235 CdX (121,114) (majority 70)

    PD 65 (8,57) (+abroad?)
    Left-Green 12 (1,11)
    More Europe 2 (2,0)
    Civic 1 (1,0)
    = 90 CsX

    M5S 51 (10,41)
    Azione/Italia Viva 21 (0,21)

    Regional parties 5 (4,1)
    (Sudtirol, Valle d'Aosta & South calls North)

    Expatriate seats 8
    (Expatriate parties plus PD)





  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    eek said:

    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
    I'm sure there's more stuff we can sell.
  • If you were a PBer who predicted Truss would be gone by conference 2023 then you’d be feeling pretty smug right now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Ah, but did you get the chance to see the woman's choice of necklace? They could be a right pair of adventurists.
    i feel sorry for Leon...his biggest entertainment during the day seems to be to come on this site and give us his erudite and witty insights lol
    He's one of these people who spends years trying to persuade people how brilliant his life is, whilst appearing to all and sundry as a slightly pathetic, tragic figure.

    Reminds me of this song:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0DCclB1Mjc
    You do FIFTY TWO MARATHONS A YEAR

    I travel the world, in luxury, on someone else’s money

    I rest my case, m’Lud
  • Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close

    Typical market behaviour. We hit something outrageous in overnight trading, people thought it would rebound and thanks to piling onto that it has.

    Various market commentators saying the traders have priced in a big BofE emergency intervention this week. If it doesn't happen, we will see an even bigger sell off this Friday afternoon than we did last Friday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    No idea why oysters are seen as posh food. They are the plentiful fruit of the sea, and aren't expensive at all. I think it's usually just fussy eaters trying to pretend there is something weird and flashy about them, to distract from their simply being gastronomic wusses.

    Way back when, they weren't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338
    PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Ah, but did you get the chance to see the woman's choice of necklace? They could be a right pair of adventurists.
    i feel sorry for Leon...his biggest entertainment during the day seems to be to come on this site and give us his erudite and witty insights lol

    No, I am YOUR biggest entertainment of the day, when you come on here to read my erudite and witty insights. &c. &c
  • If you were a PBer who predicted Truss would be gone by conference 2023 then you’d be feeling pretty smug right now.

    Truss has just invented a new version of 'kitchen sinking' the bad news at the beginning. She's created this hysteria so that she has the opportunity to prove people wrong and make all of her subsequent moves look like part of a methodical plan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Your occasional reminder that Kwasi Kwarteng's PhD thesis was literally on the subject of the debasement of currency in England.

    https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/251742 https://twitter.com/alanbeattie/status/1574329107252248576/photo/1

    Can Cambridge revoke his PhD for making them an embarrassment...
    Kwarteng's academic achievements are seriously fecking impressive.

    Double first. Two University Prizes. A Kennedy Scholarship. Winning team on University Challenge. PhD in economic history. Friendship with @rcs1000 (as I recollect).

    He is certainly the academically most gifted Cabinet Minister since ... Harold Wilson?

    Personally, I don't understand why anyone so academically gifted would go into politics ...
    University Challenge pah! @Tissue_Price won Only Connect and worked for a bookie. And what has Kwasi said in Parliament that is half as memorable as Does the Prime Minister think I'm a fool?
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1488189476685893639
    "...take us for fools".
    Dangerous sort of question for Kwarteng to ask at the moment.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    If the pound is rallying due to an expected interest rate rise, then that really wouldn’t be optimum for the gov
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
    Overseas aid
    Hasn't that already been cut? IIRC a Tory MP (Mr Mitchell?) wanted it restored but was told politely to get outside some sage and onion a few days ago.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    LOL
    Ella Pamfilova, the head of Russia's election commission, on Russians fleeing being drafted to fight against Ukraine:

    "Let the rats who are running run. The ship will be ours, it's gaining strength and clearly moving towards its target."

    Unclear if she knows why rats flee ships

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1574382656908845057
  • Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
    Overseas aid
    Hasn't that already been cut? IIRC a Tory MP (Mr Mitchell?) wanted it restored but was told politely to get outside some sage and onion a few days ago.
    It’s basically gone already, along with the associated soft power. See Rory Stewart for details.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
  • Leon said:

    PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Ah, but did you get the chance to see the woman's choice of necklace? They could be a right pair of adventurists.
    i feel sorry for Leon...his biggest entertainment during the day seems to be to come on this site and give us his erudite and witty insights lol
    He's one of these people who spends years trying to persuade people how brilliant his life is, whilst appearing to all and sundry as a slightly pathetic, tragic figure.

    Reminds me of this song:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0DCclB1Mjc
    You do FIFTY TWO MARATHONS A YEAR

    I travel the world, in luxury, on someone else’s money

    I rest my case, m’Lud
    Well, I *aim* to do 52 Marathons in a year. It's an aspiration. I hope I manage it, but it'll be blooming tough. But that's the great thing about it: aiming high, stretching myself, doing something really, really hard. And if I fail, at least I will have tried.

    BTW, that offer is still open. This time next year, let's do a Marathon. Train up for it. You pick a place in the UK (or if I can get away, in Europe) and we'll run 26.2 miles.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
    I'm sure there's more stuff we can sell.
    Elgin marbles. Buck House. Maybe a shop at Bicester Village, a sort of upmarket bricks and mortar version of those 'Heritage' catalogues for posh teacosies and jigsaws from the V&A etc that you get with BBC History now and then?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Yep, keep an eye out for that.
  • darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Of course. The current crisis atmospherics is very much part of the plan I am sure. Disaster capitalism at work.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    PeterM said:

    How interesting - Odey has not only made a fortune against the Pound after heavily backing Truss, but is also now making a fortune against UK government bonds.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/odeys-hedge-fund-soars-145-bets-against-uk-bonds-sources-2022-09-22/

    check his performance record...hes been pretty useless in recent years and has had many losing bets
    His Brexit and Truss bets look to be some of the best on record..

    I see there's calls for an into privileged pre-budget information following Friday and his Pound shorting.
    annual performance
    2016 -44%
    2017-22.9%
    2018 37.5%
    2019 -13.2%
    2020 -27.3%
    2021 25,2%

    1000,000 becomes 470,000 on that timeframe
    Good way to get to poor house
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited September 2022
    Can see Nationwide getting more mortgage work when rates rise:

    The longer the term, the lower your monthly payments, but you will pay more interest overall. We offer a maximum term of 40 years, or to end by your 75th birthday, whichever comes first.

    When rates are high you might as well extend the total term for as long as you can get, but have the fixed period as short as possible.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
    Overseas aid
    Hasn't that already been cut? IIRC a Tory MP (Mr Mitchell?) wanted it restored but was told politely to get outside some sage and onion a few days ago.
    It’s basically gone already, along with the associated soft power. See Rory Stewart for details.
    Ah, thanks. And queenly funerals don't last very long soft power wise.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    edited September 2022
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    Thanks, I'd forgotten that the DART mission was today!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63006717
    Does anyone know (assuming it is successful) the size limit of the kind of meteor that it would work on?
    Would depend in part on how far away. A body on collision course that is very far away needs a much smaller adjustment to trajectory - e.g. lighter/slower impact craft - than one much closer.

    In this case, despite the story, it's more of a proof of (a) hitting it and (b) transferring momentum rather than a real dry run on deflection as it's not far off a head-on hit aimed at slowing down more than changing direction, which you wouldn't do to avert a strike. Here probably because they want to keep it in orbit with slightly reduced period, rather than send it off somewhere else and/or make it crash into the larger body.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, Italian seat prediction should be pretty much on the nose now. The constituencies are pretty much decided with a few stragglers to declare and the in scope votes for proportional counting are fully known.

    Iirc, it does take a little time to calculate and certify how the proportional numbers best map to multimember constituencies and thus which individuals are elected, but we know how many of each party there will be.

    FdI 118 (49 constitiency, 69 proportional), Lega 65 (42, 23),
    FI 45 (23, 22),
    Moderates 7 (7,0)
    = 235 CdX (121,114) (majority 70)

    PD 65 (8,57) (+abroad?)
    Left-Green 12 (1,11)
    More Europe 2 (2,0)
    Civic 1 (1,0)
    = 90 CsX

    M5S 51 (10,41)
    Azione/Italia Viva 21 (0,21)

    Regional parties 5 (4,1)
    (Sudtirol, Valle d'Aosta & South calls North)

    Expatriate seats 8
    (Expatriate parties plus PD)





    Checked the expatriate seats. Just waiting for a few counts from South Africa, USA, Ireland, Germany and Spain, but the 4 x 2 member seats look to be splitting:

    CsX 4, CdX 3, Italians Abroad 1
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,157
    edited September 2022
    PeterM said:

    PeterM said:

    How interesting - Odey has not only made a fortune against the Pound after heavily backing Truss, but is also now making a fortune against UK government bonds.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/odeys-hedge-fund-soars-145-bets-against-uk-bonds-sources-2022-09-22/

    check his performance record...hes been pretty useless in recent years and has had many losing bets
    His Brexit and Truss bets look to be some of the best on record..

    I see there's calls for an into privileged pre-budget information following Friday and his Pound shorting.
    annual performance
    2016 -44%
    2017-22.9%
    2018 37.5%
    2019 -13.2%
    2020 -27.3%
    2021 25,2%

    1000,000 becomes 470,000 on that timeframe
    Good way to get to poor house
    That depends how you define performance. If he has privileged information at certain junctures because of his deep Kwarteng, Truss and Brexit links, for instance, as some are asking for an enquiry on, for last week, his performance should be measured against his involvement at those times. Similarly with his absolutely central involvement with Brexit and shorting activities there. He and a couple of others funding Brexit and the Tories, as even the Times report yesterday alluded to, are not distant random observers.

    You don't need to be a good general better to be a good better-manipulator and networker.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338
    edited September 2022
    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    "Brexit is doing lasting damage to our trade and our economy, and it will continue to do so until we have a proper trade deal with the Europeans."

    Conservative grandee Ken Clarke calls out Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng for their disastrous mini budget.
    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1574378475976286209/video/1

    Brexit might exacerbate this situation, but the usual FBPE aligned/sympathetic suspects calling for Britain to immediately enter the single market/rejoin etc are just repeating the same old tune without actually helping.

    Doing as KC says will not immediately solve CoL/rising interest rates for the average Briton and when a solution does come no one rational would be interested in starting another crisis with yet more divisive debate over Europe.

    When the likes of KC, Campbell, Adonis etc can offer a political opinion without mentioning Brexit then I might take them more seriously again.
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    This reminds me of those "History Today" exchanges where the profs start of discussing some topic in erudite fashion but soon descend into "that's your mum that is" type exchanges. I would love to act outraged but of course like most of us I absolutely live for this level of pettiness. Keep up the good work lads!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
    I'm sure there's more stuff we can sell.
    Elgin marbles. Buck House. Maybe a shop at Bicester Village, a sort of upmarket bricks and mortar version of those 'Heritage' catalogues for posh teacosies and jigsaws from the V&A etc that you get with BBC History now and then?
    The British Museum is chock full of stuff the rich in the middle east would probably like as ornaments.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    PeterM said:

    PeterM said:

    How interesting - Odey has not only made a fortune against the Pound after heavily backing Truss, but is also now making a fortune against UK government bonds.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/odeys-hedge-fund-soars-145-bets-against-uk-bonds-sources-2022-09-22/

    check his performance record...hes been pretty useless in recent years and has had many losing bets
    His Brexit and Truss bets look to be some of the best on record..

    I see there's calls for an into privileged pre-budget information following Friday and his Pound shorting.
    annual performance
    2016 -44%
    2017-22.9%
    2018 37.5%
    2019 -13.2%
    2020 -27.3%
    2021 25,2%

    1000,000 becomes 470,000 on that timeframe
    Good way to get to poor house
    That depends how you define performance. If he has privileged information at certain junctures because of his deep Kwarteng, Truss and Brexit links, for instance, as some are alleging for last week, for instance, his performance should be measured against his involvement at those times. Similarly with Brexit. He and a couple of others funding Brexit and the Tories, as even the Times report yesterday alluded to, are not distant random observers.

    You can be a poor general better and good better-manipulator, networker.
    if i was an invesor in his fund i wouldnt be too happy
  • If you were a PBer who predicted Truss would be gone by conference 2023 then you’d be feeling pretty smug right now.

    Conference 2022 ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Some couples are happy just to sit in silence and just enjoy each's company.
    I'm taking my wife out for a curry dinner for her birthday on Thursday. Between now and then I'll be thinking about topics to talk about and making a list of them, at least half a dozen since we'll be there for over an hour. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587


    Per twitter, the government cap is about 200 on this graph.
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    This reminds me of those "History Today" exchanges where the profs start of discussing some topic in erudite fashion but soon descend into "that's your mum that is" type exchanges. I would love to act outraged but of course like most of us I absolutely live for this level of pettiness. Keep up the good work lads!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhrD5SVo3OU

    It still makes me laugh. :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Dunno what my brother will do with his many mortgages. Probably stick his rents up.
  • QUIZ
    Identify the tank.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    Both couples sound perfectly fine and decent just boring.

    It is often the dull and boring who do the serious jobs and maintain the morality to keep society in order
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Pulpstar said:

    Dunno what my brother will do with his many mortgages. Probably stick his rents up.

    That implies that he doesn't charge what he can get for rent. Now, I know it's never going to be perfectly efficient, but I'd have thought there's not a lot of scope for landlords passing on interest rate rises to tenants.
  • News of Truss's political genius has reached the markets:

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574387228616396800

    Now at $1.09, the pound is now ABOVE where it ended the day on Friday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Interesting thread on the referendums.

    https://twitter.com/KristoNurmis/status/1574078065143353344
    on the "referenda" in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

    Understandably, many people call these illegal, rigged, & a "travesty of democracy." But portraying them merely as fake democracy misrepresents and understates what Russia is actually doing. Let me explain. 1/


    TLDR:
    "The elections in Russian-occupied Ukraine are an exercise of forcible public indoctrination where people have to physically affirm their new identity imposed from abroad: choose *our* side in history or perish..."

    I think that's right about the motivation; the exercise is, like everything else Russia these days, more than a bit shit in the execution.
  • Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    I hate to break this to you, but perhaps, just perhaps, you might have realised that *you* are a little boring? Which is why you're sitting alone in a restaurant commenting on your food and conversations that you're overhearing?

    So be a different sort of boring and start running. ;)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Some couples are happy just to sit in silence and just enjoy each's company.
    I'm taking my wife out for a curry dinner for her birthday on Thursday. Between now and then I'll be thinking about topics to talk about and making a list of them, at least half a dozen since we'll be there for over an hour. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.
    I have a friend whose partner I think perhaps actually does that. Any lull in conversation and he starts off with a completely unrelated topic. It's quite exhausting when you're on the other side of it. You can't even have a reflective sip of your beer without a new topic being introduced.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    Gosh there's plenty (!) going on there. How can the mask slip if you don't bother putting it on in the first place?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    carnforth said:



    Per twitter, the government cap is about 200 on this graph.

    I have asked this before, but if the price goes below 200, will the UK start buying? can it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Leon said:

    PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Ah, but did you get the chance to see the woman's choice of necklace? They could be a right pair of adventurists.
    i feel sorry for Leon...his biggest entertainment during the day seems to be to come on this site and give us his erudite and witty insights lol
    He's one of these people who spends years trying to persuade people how brilliant his life is, whilst appearing to all and sundry as a slightly pathetic, tragic figure.

    Reminds me of this song:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0DCclB1Mjc
    You do FIFTY TWO MARATHONS A YEAR

    I travel the world, in luxury, on someone else’s money

    I rest my case, m’Lud
    Well, I *aim* to do 52 Marathons in a year. It's an aspiration. I hope I manage it, but it'll be blooming tough. But that's the great thing about it: aiming high, stretching myself, doing something really, really hard. And if I fail, at least I will have tried.

    BTW, that offer is still open. This time next year, let's do a Marathon. Train up for it. You pick a place in the UK (or if I can get away, in Europe) and we'll run 26.2 miles.
    He's a 60 year old alcoholic. Are you trying to kill him?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    they weren't a couple. that's just how fast speed dating goes in Cornwall.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    They sound exciting compared to people I've been with over the years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, Italian seat prediction should be pretty much on the nose now. The constituencies are pretty much decided with a few stragglers to declare and the in scope votes for proportional counting are fully known.

    Iirc, it does take a little time to calculate and certify how the proportional numbers best map to multimember constituencies and thus which individuals are elected, but we know how many of each party there will be.

    FdI 118 (49 constitiency, 69 proportional), Lega 65 (42, 23),
    FI 45 (23, 22),
    Moderates 7 (7,0)
    = 235 CdX (121,114) (majority 70)

    PD 65 (8,57) (+abroad?)
    Left-Green 12 (1,11)
    More Europe 2 (2,0)
    Civic 1 (1,0)
    = 90 CsX

    M5S 51 (10,41)
    Azione/Italia Viva 21 (0,21)

    Regional parties 5 (4,1)
    (Sudtirol, Valle d'Aosta & South calls North)

    Expatriate seats 8
    (Expatriate parties plus PD)





    So Meloni will be PM and the combined right has a clear majority but Berlusconi is Kingmaker and has the balance of power. A comeback for him of sorts too
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    Nothing wrong with dining alone. I enjoy it too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    They sound exciting compared to people I've been with over the years.
    How do you mean "been with" Andy?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    MISTY said:

    carnforth said:



    Per twitter, the government cap is about 200 on this graph.

    I have asked this before, but if the price goes below 200, will the UK start buying? can it?
    Not sure what you mean, I’m afraid.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,157
    edited September 2022
    Uk five-year bond yields now above Italy and Greece, I see.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    If I was a Tory MP I'd pay careful attention to how hard Cooper is trying to contain her happiness. https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1574397239711371264
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    Thanks, I'd forgotten that the DART mission was today!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63006717
    Does anyone know (assuming it is successful) the size limit of the kind of meteor that it would work on?
    It’s an experiment to see what effect is generated for an impact on an asteroid. The issue being that asteroids are usually rubble piles, rather than a single rock.

    The purpose of the experiment is to see what change in overall trajectory of the rubble pile there is for a given input. Also whether there is much “loosening” of the rubble pile. You really don’t wasn’t to turn an asteroid into a rubble cloud…

    To be useful, it doesn’t have to be large - with enough warning, shifting an asteroid orbit by 1 earth diameter requires surprisingly little effort
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    too much information
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    IanB2 said:

    Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close

    It’s not that long that we were at $1.30. The thing that has ‘happened’ is that we’re now below $1.10, not that it has bounced about a bit below that level.
    Look at the price of Gas Futures over the past 6 weeks, it can lose or gain 30% in a day with no real reason.
    All such sudden falls have a bounce at the bottom. The market always overshoots.

    Gas futures are vulnerable to rumours and poor investment choices at the moment. If the German government starts buying gas on a “don’t care about the price” basis, again…
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    It's a shame you didn't tell this story to the married couple beside you and then documented their response.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    edited September 2022

    QUIZ
    Identify the tank.


    It's there, in the middle, on that trailer. The green thing.

    (Bah, beaten to it by @Selebian )
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    QUIZ
    Identify the tank.


    Which one ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Golly gosh. You truly do think you're all especially and unusually daring and debauched, don't you? lol
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited September 2022
    carnforth said:

    MISTY said:

    carnforth said:



    Per twitter, the government cap is about 200 on this graph.

    I have asked this before, but if the price goes below 200, will the UK start buying? can it?
    Not sure what you mean, I’m afraid.
    Above 200, the government must spend money to subsidize gas. Below 200, it doesn't. Buying gas futures below 200 takes out the risk of the taxpayer subsidy.

    If the gas price rose above 200 again, the government could take its profit on the gas futures it bought below 200 and use that profit to subsidise prices, instead of taxpayer money.

  • kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Golly gosh. You truly do think you're all especially and unusually daring and debauched, don't you? lol
    I bet SeanT's never had sex in an RF screened room. ;)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    edited September 2022
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Some couples are happy just to sit in silence and just enjoy each's company.

    There are all sorts of silences, from hostile ones to contented ones where people understand each other beyond words.

    I once ate a meal on the next table to a peripheral minor royal and their partner who barely spoke to each other and spent the meal looking miserable.

    Or they could just be really boring people, and we'll suited as a couple.
    Quite often the trick is to get boring people together and leave them to it. There are complicated boring people who only really enjoy being boring with an audience of people who don't want to be bored instead of other boring people. Flight is the only option.

    On the whole boring people like being boring and like being bored. Unless that were true, try to explain most of what is on the telly all day and night? Apparently people watch 28 hours a week or something ridiculous.

  • eek said:

    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
    Overseas aid
    The mindset that says “it’s all a bit difficult” doesn’t really help

    - Health: difficult to cut spending materially (although you can save a few billion around the edges with homeopathy, tattoo removal and stuff the Mail hates). More important to reorganise to maximise the health benefit from a certain budget to limit future increases. Reorientate to prevention and sort chronic care / long term nursing (which doesn’t need to be in expensive hospitals) to free up capacity

    - Pensions: break the triple lock but replace with a staged increase to a fixed percentage of the median wage. But you need to be creative - say you get 40% of the median wage (say about £10k) as a tax free payment. Then up to another £7k on a pound for pound matching from *earned* income. If you do no work you get £10k. If you earn £7k you get £7k.

    - State employee pensions: time to switch to DC for everyone

    - Welfare: phase out in-work benefits. It’s a subsidy to employers to pay unsustainably low wages for low return jobs

    - Housing benefit. Use the governments market power effectively FFS

    Just a few thoughts - the reality is you need to hit the big budgets and figure out how focus resources where needed. Cutting overseas aid, for instance, isn’t going to make a meaningful difference

    But I refuse to believe that that there is no unnecessary spending in a £600bn+ budget


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    Nothing wrong with dining alone. I enjoy it too.
    And do you spend the meal in a fug of contempt for the conversation and appearance of those around you?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    I love these Ukranian tweets citing "UK Intelligence", when it's almost always the MOD reposting as an "Intelligence Update" something Ukraine tweeted earlier the same day.

    Recently mobilized Russian conscripts are likely to be sent to Ukraine with minimal training and preparedness - UK Intelligence
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1574397456707624960

  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    I’m a simple soul, I’ve always assumed that when a bloke asked for a blowy that he was a teeny bit gay.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/289/committee-of-privileges/news/173268/privileges-committee-comments-on-legal-opinion/

    Privcom strikes back at Johnson's ludicrous Pannick advice if anyone remembers all that
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090

    - Health: difficult to cut spending materially (although you can save a few billion around the edges with homeopathy, tattoo removal and stuff the Mail hates). More important to reorganise to maximise the health benefit from a certain budget to limit future increases. Reorientate to prevention and sort chronic care / long term nursing (which doesn’t need to be in expensive hospitals) to free up capacity

    Just as a small point, NHS England has pretty much stopped all spending on homeopathy, as of 2018.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,787
    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    You want to bump off the old, the infirm, the obese and now the boring. Soon there will be no one bloody left.
  • eek said:

    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
    Overseas aid
    The mindset that says “it’s all a bit difficult” doesn’t really help

    - Health: difficult to cut spending materially (although you can save a few billion around the edges with homeopathy, tattoo removal and stuff the Mail hates). More important to reorganise to maximise the health benefit from a certain budget to limit future increases. Reorientate to prevention and sort chronic care / long term nursing (which doesn’t need to be in expensive hospitals) to free up capacity

    - Pensions: break the triple lock but replace with a staged increase to a fixed percentage of the median wage. But you need to be creative - say you get 40% of the median wage (say about £10k) as a tax free payment. Then up to another £7k on a pound for pound matching from *earned* income. If you do no work you get £10k. If you earn £7k you get £7k.

    - State employee pensions: time to switch to DC for everyone

    - Welfare: phase out in-work benefits. It’s a subsidy to employers to pay unsustainably low wages for low return jobs

    - Housing benefit. Use the governments market power effectively FFS

    Just a few thoughts - the reality is you need to hit the big budgets and figure out how focus resources where needed. Cutting overseas aid, for instance, isn’t going to make a meaningful difference

    But I refuse to believe that that there is no unnecessary spending in a £600bn+ budget
    I believe that everything should be treated like Overseas Aid: a certain percentage of government spending goes on it. As the government income goes up or down year by year, the amount that is spent in each area changes accordingly.

    And at elections, parties campaign on the percentages. "We'll spend 10% on health and only 1% on the military!" or "We'll spend 8% on education and 9% on health" etc. They can also leave a few percent for contingency, or say they will borrow a couple of percent.

    It means the pain of contractions gets spread equally over departments, as do the benefits of a boom.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Golly gosh. You truly do think you're all especially and unusually daring and debauched, don't you? lol
    Well yeah. I am. Unless you’ve been to jail on a rape charge
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    I’m a simple soul, I’ve always assumed that when a bloke asked for a blowy that he was a teeny bit gay.

    Not if they also say "I am totally not gay"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Golly gosh. You truly do think you're all especially and unusually daring and debauched, don't you? lol
    I bet SeanT's never had sex in an RF screened room. ;)
    I just find it a total fucking bore. Rather hear his reactionary racist shit tbh, Least that makes me tremble.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    I’m a simple soul, I’ve always assumed that when a bloke asked for a blowy that he was a teeny bit gay.
    There is such a thing as “bi curious”, tho it probably passed by Edinburgh haberdashery shop assistants
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Golly gosh. You truly do think you're all especially and unusually daring and debauched, don't you? lol
    Well yeah. I am. Unless you’ve been to jail on a rape charge
    Give the man a biscuit.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Labour just announced Rail in Public Ownership as contracts end. Whoo hooo.
  • - Health: difficult to cut spending materially (although you can save a few billion around the edges with homeopathy, tattoo removal and stuff the Mail hates). More important to reorganise to maximise the health benefit from a certain budget to limit future increases. Reorientate to prevention and sort chronic care / long term nursing (which doesn’t need to be in expensive hospitals) to free up capacity

    Just as a small point, NHS England has pretty much stopped all spending on homeopathy, as of 2018.

    The question to ask is why did they start?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Yawn. Boring.
    HE ASKED
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    I AM NOT 100% SURE IT WAS ONLY TWO GLASSES OF WINE WITH THE OYSTERS.
  • kjh said:

    Leon said:

    New middle aged married couple on right. Discussing National Trust properties they might visit

    OK OK. It’s not Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf but at least they are talking

    AND they have ordered an entire bottle of wine to go with their dressed crab (and he wanted WHOLE crab and was prepared to argue about it), rather than one poxy glass of weak beer and a fizzy water for the lady

    THERE ARE TOO MANY BORING PEOPLE. We need a cull

    You want to bump off the old, the infirm, the obese and now the boring. Soon there will be no one bloody left.
    Hot teen girls. They'll be spared.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    Nothing wrong with dining alone. I enjoy it too.
    And do you spend the meal in a fug of contempt for the conversation and appearance of those around you?
    Only if they're talking unusually loudly.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,787
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Golly gosh. You truly do think you're all especially and unusually daring and debauched, don't you? lol
    Well yeah. I am. Unless you’ve been to jail on a rape charge
    Not something I would boast about.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Some couples are happy just to sit in silence and just enjoy each's company.

    There are all sorts of silences, from hostile ones to contented ones where people understand each other beyond words.

    I once ate a meal on the next table to a peripheral minor royal and their partner who barely spoke to each other and spent the meal looking miserable.

    Or they could just be really boring people, and we'll suited as a couple.
    Quite often the trick is to get boring people together and leave them to it. There are complicated boring people who only really enjoy being boring with an audience of people who don't want to be bored instead of other boring people. Flight is the only option.

    On the whole boring people like being boring and like being bored. Unless that were true, try to explain most of what is on the telly all day and night? Apparently people watch 28 hours a week or something ridiculous.
    The most boring people are those who talk a lot about other people being boring.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    I’m a simple soul, I’ve always assumed that when a bloke asked for a blowy that he was a teeny bit gay.
    There is such a thing as “bi curious”, tho it probably passed by Edinburgh haberdashery shop assistants
    Glasgow if you don’t mind. However I lived in Edinburgh in the early 80s and it was debauched gay heaven if you like that sort of thing. Sadly that period coincided with the onset of u-know-what with tragic consequences.
  • Labour just announced Rail in Public Ownership as contracts end. Whoo hooo.

    A policy we should have introduced in 1997.

    Better late than never.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    British 5 year government lending rates in the market, vs the so-called PIGS (the eurozone crisis countries from a decade ago)… UK has just today usurped Italy and Greece with a more expensive cost of credit… what @jfkirkegaard has nicknames #ilsorpasso https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574405076344619008/photo/1
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338
    TOPPING said:

    I AM NOT 100% SURE IT WAS ONLY TWO GLASSES OF WINE WITH THE OYSTERS.

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Golly gosh. You truly do think you're all especially and unusually daring and debauched, don't you? lol
    Well yeah. I am. Unless you’ve been to jail on a rape charge
    Not something I would boast about.
    Who’s boasting? It’s a statement of fact
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    I AM NOT 100% SURE IT WAS ONLY TWO GLASSES OF WINE WITH THE OYSTERS.

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    I’ve just spent the last three days *en famille*, I am escaping and doing some flint location research in The Lizard

    Tho I am happy to say my family are notably more interesting than this fucking dreadful married couple. Who have just left while exchanging the final insight: “I liked the coffee”

    They are probably retired accountants from the North. They do remind me slightly of you and your wife, right down to him probably being a repressed gay but doing never doing anything about it
    You talk about gays and getting the eye from them quite a bit.
    Ever..er..dabbled?
    Once asked my best male friend to give a me a blowjob after an entire day of drinking. He havered

    He spent so long havering I gave up and went up stairs in my shared house and got one of my housemates (female, architect) to give me a handjob

    True story. All this was made quite tremendously awkward by the fact that I am totally not gay and I didn’t fancy my housemate either, tho she was in love with me (and I knew it). The hangover the next day was IMPERIOUS
    Golly gosh. You truly do think you're all especially and unusually daring and debauched, don't you? lol
    Well yeah. I am. Unless you’ve been to jail on a rape charge
    Not something I would boast about.
    Who’s boasting? It’s a statement of fact
    are you very good looking leon...are you a hot stud
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,158
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Better than being always alone and reduced to eavesdropping surely.
    Nothing wrong with dining alone. I enjoy it too.
    And do you spend the meal in a fug of contempt for the conversation and appearance of those around you?
    Only if they're talking unusually loudly.
    Oh god, that thing where you have a table really close to the next one and can hear everything they say. Nothing worse.
This discussion has been closed.