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Bojo moving up in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 30 in General
imageBojo moving up in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

When Johnson was effectively sacked as Conservative leader and Prime Minister following the revolt by Tory MPs in July the widespread assumption was that he would leave politics and go and earn huge amounts of money as a columnist and guest speaker.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,582
    edited September 25
    Bad Idea sacking him but unlikely to make a comeback IMO

    Oh and first like Boris
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Yay bozza!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    GO MELONI
  • The Tories are having Zac Goldsmith's Mayoral run guy as leading the next election.

    Thank you, for the majority.

    Labour that is
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    WE WIN
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    The 19p tax rate was a trap for Lab by Truss and Starmer has avoided it. Nice work.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice
  • The 19p tax rate was a trap for Lab by Truss and Starmer has avoided it. Nice work.

    I told you.

    PETER. MANDELSON.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nobody making any sense at all, I am going to do the passing out thing

    Night all
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457
    Lay Badenoch.
    If this goes tits up it'll be someone from the Rishi/One Nation/Told you so wing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,641
    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    You need to get laid again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882

    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    You need to get laid again.
    I just did
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Kwarteng has to be a lay at 15. Surely?

  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    You need to get laid again.
    I just did
    Your left hand doesn't count
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Who is worse at managing Sterling

    Kwasi

    Southgate
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    Sky predicting Naples Fuorigrotta constituency narrowly for M5S.

    M5S at a national 16% level is likely to start bothering the FPTP scorers.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited September 25

    The 19p tax rate was a trap for Lab by Truss and Starmer has avoided it. Nice work.

    Yes, Labour support the 19p rate, the stamp duty changes and the NI reversal, they just oppose the 45p rate abolition. So theres very very little difference despite the 'idealogical divide' headlines

    I note the King over water Burnham 'fell for it' though. Dont hear much about him any more
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,474
    Whilst it is a big majority to overturn in one electoral term, and it is certainly usual for oppositions to be ahead midterm (unless you are the great Corbyn), I think it is fair to say that Labour currently look confident and assured (in part from not doing policy anymore than they have to), whilst the Tories look completely in a panic (due to their almost desperate urgency in changing economic direction and repudiating everything they'd previously done economically).
    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    I assumed this rejoicing would be about an unPC one about another attractive head of government in Europe.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,978

    The 19p tax rate was a trap for Lab by Truss and Starmer has avoided it. Nice work.

    I told you.

    PETER. MANDELSON.
    The same Peter Mandelson who said that Gordon Brown made a mistake by not making the tax band above 40% temporary, and said we needed to repeal it "to send a signal to the world that the UK is open for business"?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mandelson-end-50p-tax-rate-to-tell-the-world-britain-is-open-for-business-bblsm67l2ft
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,468

    Sky exit polls

    Right 42%
    PD and friends 28.3%
    M5S 16.4%
    Calenda/Renzi 7.2%

    Phew:

    Get a government out of that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    Ahahahhaaaa



    This is astonishing

    “OK, the first exit poll is in, and it’s good news for Giorgia Meloni and the far-right Brothers of Italy.

    According to the Consorzio Opinio Italia poll for Rai, the rightwing coalition has won between 41-45% of the vote and the left alliance 25-29.%. That would give the right a majority in both houses.”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    The 19p tax rate was a trap for Lab by Truss and Starmer has avoided it. Nice work.

    I told you.

    PETER. MANDELSON.
    I'm thinking it is Gordon behind the scenes. He has been v active domestically of late.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    rcs1000 said:

    Sky exit polls

    Right 42%
    PD and friends 28.3%
    M5S 16.4%
    Calenda/Renzi 7.2%

    Phew:

    Get a government out of that.
    FPTP portion still ensures a substantial right majority.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sky exit polls

    Right 42%
    PD and friends 28.3%
    M5S 16.4%
    Calenda/Renzi 7.2%

    Phew:

    Get a government out of that.
    1/3 of seats are assigned with FPTP. Right should get almost all of them with 15% lead pushing them into a majority.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,978
    Meloni is the biggest thing to happen in mainland European electoral politics since Macron broke the French party system in 2017.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,641
    FPT:

    Who cares about Meloni?
    Italy is not going to Quitaly, she’s not soft on Putin, and Italy has been fucked forever and she can hardly fuck it up further.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,468
    Leon said:

    GO MELONI

    It used to be the case that the winning Italian party got a brucy seat bonus, but they removed that a couple of election cycles ago.

    Which means that while Meloni will have to bring in at least one party on the center or left if Italy is to avoid another election imminently.

    Or (and this is unlikely but not impossible) PD + M5S + Renzi + Greens could form a government.

  • Pro_Rata said:

    Sky predicting Naples Fuorigrotta constituency narrowly for M5S.

    M5S at a national 16% level is likely to start bothering the FPTP scorers.


    Meaning Di Maio would lose his seat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882

    Meloni is the biggest thing to happen in mainland European electoral politics since Macron broke the French party system in 2017.

    Quite. They are just too stupid or scared on here to realise
  • pingping Posts: 3,203
    edited September 25
    I’m on Boris at 16/1.

    I tipped it here at the time.

    Should be 4/1, imo.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,468

    FPT:

    Who cares about Meloni?
    Italy is not going to Quitaly, she’s not soft on Putin, and Italy has been fucked forever and she can hardly fuck it up further.

    It's heartening that the Italian parties of the right who are keenest on Putin (LN and Forza) have both broadly flopped.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,053
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GO MELONI

    It used to be the case that the winning Italian party got a brucy seat bonus, but they removed that a couple of election cycles ago.

    Which means that while Meloni will have to bring in at least one party on the center or left if Italy is to avoid another election imminently.

    Or (and this is unlikely but not impossible) PD + M5S + Renzi + Greens could form a government.

    I didn't know they'd got rid of the bonus seats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,053
    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    Sweden as well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,468
    Leon said:

    Meloni is the biggest thing to happen in mainland European electoral politics since Macron broke the French party system in 2017.

    Quite. They are just too stupid or scared on here to realise
    Is Meloni really more radical than the M5S + LN Government from four and a bit years ago?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sky predicting Naples Fuorigrotta constituency narrowly for M5S.

    M5S at a national 16% level is likely to start bothering the FPTP scorers.


    Meaning Di Maio would lose his seat.
    Prediction is:

    M5S 29.6
    Centre left 28.1
    Centre right 27.7

    Fat lady sings territory that.
  • dixiedean said:

    Lay Badenoch.
    If this goes tits up it'll be someone from the Rishi/One Nation/Told you so wing.

    They might, though a "stabbed in the back/the revolution failed by not going hard and fast enough" candidate is also plausible, which does look like Kemi B.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    Sweden as well.
    Don't encourage him.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,855
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GO MELONI

    It used to be the case that the winning Italian party got a brucy seat bonus, but they removed that a couple of election cycles ago.

    Which means that while Meloni will have to bring in at least one party on the center or left if Italy is to avoid another election imminently.

    Or (and this is unlikely but not impossible) PD + M5S + Renzi + Greens could form a government.

    I didn't know they'd got rid of the bonus seats.
    Yes but they now have most seats by a FPTP system, so there will be a clear majority for the rightwing coalition
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,468
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GO MELONI

    It used to be the case that the winning Italian party got a brucy seat bonus, but they removed that a couple of election cycles ago.

    Which means that while Meloni will have to bring in at least one party on the center or left if Italy is to avoid another election imminently.

    Or (and this is unlikely but not impossible) PD + M5S + Renzi + Greens could form a government.

    Off Topic?

    Tread carefully Mr @Gardenwalker
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,468

    rcs1000 said:

    Sky exit polls

    Right 42%
    PD and friends 28.3%
    M5S 16.4%
    Calenda/Renzi 7.2%

    Phew:

    Get a government out of that.
    1/3 of seats are assigned with FPTP. Right should get almost all of them with 15% lead pushing them into a majority.
    Ah: good point. (Is there an official pact on the Right for the FPTP elections?)
  • Electoral system is
    House
    245 seats assigned with PR based on national scores
    147 FPTP seats
    8 for Italians Abroad


    Senate
    122 assigned with PR based on regional scores
    74 FPTP seats
    4for Italians Abroad
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,327
    edited September 25
    Rescued this from the fag end of the dying thread, since it may be of interest:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    The pound (and selected other currencies) against the dollar, animated:

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1573936737814220800?s=20&t=TIJ0JLnqJ3hI6fFxjFqxSA

    @StuartDickson what's the Sweden story?
    The reasons are not clear. It is in one sense simply a continuation of the long term devaluation which started in the 1970s. But the one common explanation you find for the current fall is: geopolitical uncertainty, ie the war in Ukraine. We have a sea border with Russia and we are not friendly neighbours. Any tactical nuclear strike on, for example Lvov, could easily depress the entire region, even if it didn’t lead to a global nuclear conflict.

    I note that calls are once again being made for us to join the Euro. Finland is a member, as is Denmark de facto (pegged).
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,855
    kamski said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GO MELONI

    It used to be the case that the winning Italian party got a brucy seat bonus, but they removed that a couple of election cycles ago.

    Which means that while Meloni will have to bring in at least one party on the center or left if Italy is to avoid another election imminently.

    Or (and this is unlikely but not impossible) PD + M5S + Renzi + Greens could form a government.

    I didn't know they'd got rid of the bonus seats.
    Yes but they now have most seats by a FPTP system, so there will be a clear majority for the rightwing coalition
    Sorry not most. A third.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,053
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GO MELONI

    It used to be the case that the winning Italian party got a brucy seat bonus, but they removed that a couple of election cycles ago.

    Which means that while Meloni will have to bring in at least one party on the center or left if Italy is to avoid another election imminently.

    Or (and this is unlikely but not impossible) PD + M5S + Renzi + Greens could form a government.

    Off Topic?

    Tread carefully Mr @Gardenwalker
    I always assume most of the "off topics" on here are probably accidental.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sky exit polls

    Right 42%
    PD and friends 28.3%
    M5S 16.4%
    Calenda/Renzi 7.2%

    Phew:

    Get a government out of that.
    1/3 of seats are assigned with FPTP. Right should get almost all of them with 15% lead pushing them into a majority.
    Ah: good point. (Is there an official pact on the Right for the FPTP elections?)

    FDI, Lega, Forza Italia and Noi Moderati are running in coalition. So they are added together for FPTP seats

    Same for PD, +Europa, Green/Left and the Di Maio party on the other side
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,053
    The good news is that Meloni has always voted in favour of sanctions against Russia according to the BBC.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    Sky lower house seat prediction:
    FdI 110, Lega 66, FI 46 = 222/400
    There will be a few FPTP winners from.Noi Moderati (though they haven't broken the 3% to pick up proportionals), so suggests a Meloni government with a majority around 55.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    Sweden as well.
    The hard right got just 20.5% of the vote.

    79.5% of voters voted for other parties.

    That is not a “triumph”.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,641
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GO MELONI

    It used to be the case that the winning Italian party got a brucy seat bonus, but they removed that a couple of election cycles ago.

    Which means that while Meloni will have to bring in at least one party on the center or left if Italy is to avoid another election imminently.

    Or (and this is unlikely but not impossible) PD + M5S + Renzi + Greens could form a government.

    Off Topic?

    Tread carefully Mr @Gardenwalker
    Huh? Genuine thumb slip.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,855
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    Who cares about Meloni?
    Italy is not going to Quitaly, she’s not soft on Putin, and Italy has been fucked forever and she can hardly fuck it up further.

    It's heartening that the Italian parties of the right who are keenest on Putin (LN and Forza) have both broadly flopped.
    Yes, it's a coalition between fans of Putin and fans of Mussolini.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Way back in the mid-1990s, just before 1997 landslide, I saw Blair speak at a Fabian conference and i well remember the buzz as he walked in surrounded by what Mason describes here as "earpiece" people. And a dozen TV cameras. There was a certain light, perhaps from some of the cameras, and an intensity of those surrounding him, that made it seem a profound moment.



    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ Starmer - confident, surrounded by "earpiece people" - more presidential than prime ministerial. This works for him and unless Truss can generate a similar buzz at her own zombie conference, will start to soften the media towards Labour ...
  • rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    Who cares about Meloni?
    Italy is not going to Quitaly, she’s not soft on Putin, and Italy has been fucked forever and she can hardly fuck it up further.

    It's heartening that the Italian parties of the right who are keenest on Putin (LN and Forza) have both broadly flopped.
    I believe PBers of the right who were keenest on Putin also have a tendency to flop.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Meloni is the biggest thing to happen in mainland European electoral politics since Macron broke the French party system in 2017.

    Quite. They are just too stupid or scared on here to realise
    Is Meloni really more radical than the M5S + LN Government from four and a bit years ago?
    Indeed. And what are their solutions to the failures of the Italian economy that governments of all stripes have failed to cure over the 3 decades?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    Who cares about Meloni?
    Italy is not going to Quitaly, she’s not soft on Putin, and Italy has been fucked forever and she can hardly fuck it up further.

    It's heartening that the Italian parties of the right who are keenest on Putin (LN and Forza) have both broadly flopped.
    Yes, it's a coalition between fans of Putin and fans of Mussolini.
    No wonder @Leon's cheering. Putin + Mussolini, it's a wet dream for him.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,150
    Andy_JS said:

    The good news is that Meloni has always voted in favour of sanctions against Russia according to the BBC.

    Yes but she was previously rather keen on him which is not encouraging. However she's now re-branded herself as a Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    edited September 25
    In the unlikely event Truss is ousted and there is another leadership contest before the next election then yes Johnson would be favourite.

    If Truss leads the Tories into the next general election and loses then Badenoch would be favourite to be Leader of the Opposition. If the Tories win the next election under Truss then Kwarteng is likely favourite
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 516
    edited September 25
    Sky looking the best coverage so far imho.

    Centrodestra on 57% of seats in both houses per exit polls.

    Projection map for FPTP seats for the Chamber, nearly all blue, some uncalled, handful of red in Tuscany area, couple of M5S yellow in Napoli.

    So govt will be PM Meloni, cabinet seats for Lega, FI and the other small party?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,659

    Way back in the mid-1990s, just before 1997 landslide, I saw Blair speak at a Fabian conference and i well remember the buzz as he walked in surrounded by what Mason describes here as "earpiece" people. And a dozen TV cameras. There was a certain light, perhaps from some of the cameras, and an intensity of those surrounding him, that made it seem a profound moment.



    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ Starmer - confident, surrounded by "earpiece people" - more presidential than prime ministerial. This works for him and unless Truss can generate a similar buzz at her own zombie conference, will start to soften the media towards Labour ...

    What does Starmer believe in? I think he is an empty shell, projecting ‘I’m not the Tories’. As the Tories are self destructing it’s working. But.
    What does Starmer believe in?

    Take energy. Great to aim for all renewable energy as early as possible. But Starmer seems not have thought about the calm, cloudy winter days problem.

    What does Starmer believe in?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sky lower house seat prediction:
    FdI 110, Lega 66, FI 46 = 222/400
    There will be a few FPTP winners from.Noi Moderati (though they haven't broken the 3% to pick up proportionals), so suggests a Meloni government with a majority around 55.

    To round off:
    PD 77
    M5S 47
    Azione/IV 18
    Suggesting minor/expatriate/regionalists 36

    Milan Central - Left by 4pts
    Rome Central - Left (+E) by 3%
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    In the unlikely event Truss is ousted and there is another leadership contest before the next election then yes Johnson would be favourite.

    If Truss leads the Tories into the next general election and loses then Badenoch would be favourite to be Leader of the Opposition. If the Tories win the next election under Truss then Kwarteng is likely favourite

    Surely someone sensible like Wallace/Mordaunt/Tugs after an election defeat. Pre- election, Johnson for the landslide win.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sky lower house seat prediction:
    FdI 110, Lega 66, FI 46 = 222/400
    There will be a few FPTP winners from.Noi Moderati (though they haven't broken the 3% to pick up proportionals), so suggests a Meloni government with a majority around 55.

    So for the first time since World War 2 a Nationalist, former Fascist party has won most seats in a western European general
    election. Meloni and Brothers of Italy though will need Berlusconi and Salvini's support to govern.

    Also the first victory for the right of centre in a G7 nation's election since Boris and the Tories win in 2019. Truss will welcome PM Meloni as a key ally in a G7 now dominated by liberals and social democrats like Biden, Scholz, Macron and Trudeau
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    ...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    Who cares about Meloni?
    Italy is not going to Quitaly, she’s not soft on Putin, and Italy has been fucked forever and she can hardly fuck it up further.

    It's heartening that the Italian parties of the right who are keenest on Putin (LN and Forza) have both broadly flopped.
    Yes, it's a coalition between fans of Putin and fans of Mussolini.
    No wonder @Leon's cheering. Putin + Mussolini, it's a wet dream for him.
    More an Orbasn
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    GO MELONI

    It used to be the case that the winning Italian party got a brucy seat bonus, but they removed that a couple of election cycles ago.

    Which means that while Meloni will have to bring in at least one party on the center or left if Italy is to avoid another election imminently.

    Or (and this is unlikely but not impossible) PD + M5S + Renzi + Greens could form a government.

    Off Topic?

    Tread carefully Mr @Gardenwalker
    Huh? Genuine thumb slip.
    Plus... who gives a shit?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493

    Andy_JS said:

    The good news is that Meloni has always voted in favour of sanctions against Russia according to the BBC.

    However she's now re-branded herself as a Tory.
    So a mirror image of Truss?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    Great use of colour in the header graph btw.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155

    dixiedean said:

    Lay Badenoch.
    If this goes tits up it'll be someone from the Rishi/One Nation/Told you so wing.

    They might, though a "stabbed in the back/the revolution failed by not going hard and fast enough" candidate is also plausible, which does look like Kemi B.
    Indeed, Truss is basically a libertarian liberal. Badenoch a full hard conservative, socially as well as economically
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    Way back in the mid-1990s, just before 1997 landslide, I saw Blair speak at a Fabian conference and i well remember the buzz as he walked in surrounded by what Mason describes here as "earpiece" people. And a dozen TV cameras. There was a certain light, perhaps from some of the cameras, and an intensity of those surrounding him, that made it seem a profound moment.



    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ Starmer - confident, surrounded by "earpiece people" - more presidential than prime ministerial. This works for him and unless Truss can generate a similar buzz at her own zombie conference, will start to soften the media towards Labour ...

    Theres a massive sell being pushed since HMQ's death and Starmer's speech at the tributes, its obvious that the Labour friendly media are trying to push a sea change narrative. There was all the 'Statesmanlike' stuff during mourning, and now this fawning El Presidente stuff from Mason. Starmer himself is pushing this 'ready to govern' gubbins too
  • pingping Posts: 3,203
    edited September 25
    HYUFD said:

    In the unlikely event Truss is ousted and there is another leadership contest before the next election then yes Johnson would be favourite.

    If Truss leads the Tories into the next general election and loses then Badenoch would be favourite to be Leader of the Opposition. If the Tories win the next election under Truss then Kwarteng is likely favourite

    In a Truss-loses-the-election-and-stands-down-immediately scenario, I think Boris is still in the running. It’s down to whether 1) he wants it (5 years in opposition, before possibly getting back into number 10?) and 2) how keen the party are to get straight back in to power. The ghosts of Hague and IDS (wasn’t there another forgettable one, too?) will loom large.

    I think Boris would win any contest.

    Edit. Ah yes. Michael Howard.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046

    Way back in the mid-1990s, just before 1997 landslide, I saw Blair speak at a Fabian conference and i well remember the buzz as he walked in surrounded by what Mason describes here as "earpiece" people. And a dozen TV cameras. There was a certain light, perhaps from some of the cameras, and an intensity of those surrounding him, that made it seem a profound moment.



    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ Starmer - confident, surrounded by "earpiece people" - more presidential than prime ministerial. This works for him and unless Truss can generate a similar buzz at her own zombie conference, will start to soften the media towards Labour ...

    What does Starmer believe in? I think he is an empty shell, projecting ‘I’m not the Tories’. As the Tories are self destructing it’s working. But.
    What does Starmer believe in?

    Take energy. Great to aim for all renewable energy as early as possible. But Starmer seems not have thought about the calm, cloudy winter days problem.

    What does Starmer believe in?
    I don't think it's that puzzling? The part of Labour that's not Corbyn.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 33% (-2)
    LDM: 10% (=)
    GRN: 4% (+1)
    REF: 3% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes, On 15-16 September,
    Changes w/ 11 September.

    Looking forward to Moon and G overanalysing the reverse of this midterm poll, telling us in great detail why the Tories are leading Labour by 12 points.
    No one plays it more straighter on polls than me. This is a betting site you know. 😤

    What we have Anablob, since Truss coronation an opinion poll graph currently with a clear uptick Truss bounce, the mechanics of which explained by Mike Smithson, where Tory % dropped it was losing supporters to don’t know, now this has been reversed by Truss for the Tory move to mid 30s in some polling - up five on previous comres from 30 so arguably still honeymoon built into new 12 point lead poll.

    Yes so I was a bit wrong, I pushed there would be no Truss up tick because she been in governments for a decade, so voters would wait for improvement, not expect it.

    However, what the table ALSO shows is since Truss became leader, Labour have yet to drop into the 30s, Liz also seems to firm up Labour support, those starting to flirt with Labour this year seem to have firmed up with him, of her or him for Downing Street.

    When it comes to polling, % trend is just as important to watch as gap between parties.

    But unless it is just a short term thing, the change in polling brought by Liz Truss is Labour support firming up and growing at expense of Libdem and green. Hence LLG if anything a tad down but with strong Labour %.

    Any complaints in my analysis from this weekend?


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    . .
  • ...

    HYUFD said:

    In the unlikely event Truss is ousted and there is another leadership contest before the next election then yes Johnson would be favourite.

    If Truss leads the Tories into the next general election and loses then Badenoch would be favourite to be Leader of the Opposition. If the Tories win the next election under Truss then Kwarteng is likely favourite

    Surely someone sensible like Wallace/Mordaunt/Tugs after an election defeat. Pre- election, Johnson for the landslide win.
    Something that came across watching the Accession Council for KC3 was how much more presence Mordaunt has than Truss.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sky lower house seat prediction:
    FdI 110, Lega 66, FI 46 = 222/400
    There will be a few FPTP winners from.Noi Moderati (though they haven't broken the 3% to pick up proportionals), so suggests a Meloni government with a majority around 55.

    So for the first time since World War 2 a Nationalist, former Fascist party has won most seats in a western European general
    election. Meloni and Brothers of Italy though will need Berlusconi and Salvini's support to govern.

    Also the first victory for the right of centre in a G7 nation's election since Boris and the Tories win in 2019. Truss will welcome PM Meloni as a key ally in a G7 now dominated by liberals and social democrats like Biden, Scholz, Macron and Trudeau
    No HY. Fascists may be of the right, but they are not your friends. I have told you about this before!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,659
    EPG said:

    Way back in the mid-1990s, just before 1997 landslide, I saw Blair speak at a Fabian conference and i well remember the buzz as he walked in surrounded by what Mason describes here as "earpiece" people. And a dozen TV cameras. There was a certain light, perhaps from some of the cameras, and an intensity of those surrounding him, that made it seem a profound moment.



    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ Starmer - confident, surrounded by "earpiece people" - more presidential than prime ministerial. This works for him and unless Truss can generate a similar buzz at her own zombie conference, will start to soften the media towards Labour ...

    What does Starmer believe in? I think he is an empty shell, projecting ‘I’m not the Tories’. As the Tories are self destructing it’s working. But.
    What does Starmer believe in?

    Take energy. Great to aim for all renewable energy as early as possible. But Starmer seems not have thought about the calm, cloudy winter days problem.

    What does Starmer believe in?
    I don't think it's that puzzling? The part of Labour that's not Corbyn.
    What is that now? Trade unions? Not supporting current strikes. What should the tax levels be? Currently the highest for a very long time. Etc etc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    edited September 25

    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sky lower house seat prediction:
    FdI 110, Lega 66, FI 46 = 222/400
    There will be a few FPTP winners from.Noi Moderati (though they haven't broken the 3% to pick up proportionals), so suggests a Meloni government with a majority around 55.

    So for the first time since World War 2 a Nationalist, former Fascist party has won most seats in a western European general
    election. Meloni and Brothers of Italy though will need Berlusconi and Salvini's support to govern.

    Also the first victory for the right of centre in a G7 nation's election since Boris and the Tories win in 2019. Truss will welcome PM Meloni as a key ally in a G7 now dominated by liberals and social democrats like Biden, Scholz, Macron and Trudeau
    No HY. Fascists may be of the right, but they are not your friends. I have told you about this before!
    Meloni has said now if she was British she would be a Tory
  • HYUFD said:

    In the unlikely event Truss is ousted and there is another leadership contest before the next election then yes Johnson would be favourite.

    If Truss leads the Tories into the next general election and loses then Badenoch would be favourite to be Leader of the Opposition. If the Tories win the next election under Truss then Kwarteng is likely favourite

    Obviously the Privileges Committee investigation into Boris is totally independent of the PM.

    But if I were advising Truss, I'd be suggesting that the best mood music would be to throw him to the wolves.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    Will be interesting to see if the tories collapse whether a more right wing nationalist party emerges in the uk...or will the tories turn themselves into a cross between ukip and the bnp
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sky lower house seat prediction:
    FdI 110, Lega 66, FI 46 = 222/400
    There will be a few FPTP winners from.Noi Moderati (though they haven't broken the 3% to pick up proportionals), so suggests a Meloni government with a majority around 55.

    So for the first time since World War 2 a Nationalist, former Fascist party has won most seats in a western European general
    election. Meloni and Brothers of Italy though will need Berlusconi and Salvini's support to govern.

    Also the first victory for the right of centre in a G7 nation's election since Boris and the Tories win in 2019. Truss will welcome PM Meloni as a key ally in a G7 now dominated by liberals and social democrats like Biden, Scholz, Macron and Trudeau
    No HY. Fascists may be of the right, but they are not your friends. I have told you about this before!
    Meloni has said now if she was British she would be a Tory
    She is selling you a pup! At least she's not a Leaver!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    PeterM said:

    will the tories turn themselves into a cross between ukip and the bnp

    They already did
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,659
    Scott_xP said:

    PeterM said:

    will the tories turn themselves into a cross between ukip and the bnp

    They already did
    Wow - you really are unhinged.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Italian politics always seems to punch below its weight internationally - not since Mussolini has it really had a major influence on other electorates, so I don’t see this making particularly huge waves like Le Pen would have and Trump did. The bigger far right menace within the EU remains Orban.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Scott_xP said:

    PeterM said:

    will the tories turn themselves into a cross between ukip and the bnp

    They already did
    More like a cross between Forza Italia and the Australian Liberal party.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,150
    edited September 25
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Jonathan Swift got it right:

    'It is the folly of too many to mistake the echo of a London coffee house for the voice of the kingdom.'

    Perhaps it should be wine bar?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633
    edited September 25
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lay Badenoch.
    If this goes tits up it'll be someone from the Rishi/One Nation/Told you so wing.

    They might, though a "stabbed in the back/the revolution failed by not going hard and fast enough" candidate is also plausible, which does look like Kemi B.
    Indeed, Truss is basically a libertarian liberal. Badenoch a full hard conservative, socially as well as economically
    The one thing positive that I can see so far is that Truss isn't bothered by the whole Culture War thing. Her ideas are economic, not cultural.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    Will be interesting to see if the tories collapse whether a more right wing nationalist party emerges in the uk...or will the tories turn themselves into a cross between ukip and the bnp
    If the Tories collapsed Farage would be back. Nige is tweeting with glee about Meloni's win tonight but warning about a Von Der Leyen backlash

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage
  • Ok the first polling stations are starting to come through now, all in centre/north so far.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    HYUFD said:

    PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    Will be interesting to see if the tories collapse whether a more right wing nationalist party emerges in the uk...or will the tories turn themselves into a cross between ukip and the bnp
    If the Tories collapsed Farage would be back. Nige is tweeting with glee about Meloni's win tonight but warning about a Von Der Leyen backlash

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage
    What business is the European Union of Mr Farage. Another victorious Leaver who can't throw off his obsession with the EU.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    The Hard Right triumphs. The white Christian west has had enough. Rejoice

    Will be interesting to see if the tories collapse whether a more right wing nationalist party emerges in the uk...or will the tories turn themselves into a cross between ukip and the bnp
    The Tories already are a right wing nationalist party. They need a long spell in opposition before the damage they’ve done to the UK becomes irreversible.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046

    EPG said:

    Way back in the mid-1990s, just before 1997 landslide, I saw Blair speak at a Fabian conference and i well remember the buzz as he walked in surrounded by what Mason describes here as "earpiece" people. And a dozen TV cameras. There was a certain light, perhaps from some of the cameras, and an intensity of those surrounding him, that made it seem a profound moment.



    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ Starmer - confident, surrounded by "earpiece people" - more presidential than prime ministerial. This works for him and unless Truss can generate a similar buzz at her own zombie conference, will start to soften the media towards Labour ...

    What does Starmer believe in? I think he is an empty shell, projecting ‘I’m not the Tories’. As the Tories are self destructing it’s working. But.
    What does Starmer believe in?

    Take energy. Great to aim for all renewable energy as early as possible. But Starmer seems not have thought about the calm, cloudy winter days problem.

    What does Starmer believe in?
    I don't think it's that puzzling? The part of Labour that's not Corbyn.
    What is that now? Trade unions? Not supporting current strikes. What should the tax levels be? Currently the highest for a very long time. Etc etc
    Hasn't he been talking about tax today?

    No, he doesn't have to support every strike, because again he's not trying to be Corbyn. It does seem like the concept is difficult to understand but: He's not trying to lose a fourth election in a row on a too-left platform.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,150
    TimS said:

    Italian politics always seems to punch below its weight internationally - not since Mussolini has it really had a major influence on other electorates, so I don’t see this making particularly huge waves like Le Pen would have and Trump did. The bigger far right menace within the EU remains Orban.

    An Italian Orban would be far more problematic. I'm willing to give Meloni the benefit of the doubt but Salvini and Berlusconi not so much. At least Russia increasingly looks like a busted flush.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,681
    edited September 25
    Turnout is around 64%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,812
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sky lower house seat prediction:
    FdI 110, Lega 66, FI 46 = 222/400
    There will be a few FPTP winners from.Noi Moderati (though they haven't broken the 3% to pick up proportionals), so suggests a Meloni government with a majority around 55.

    So for the first time since World War 2 a Nationalist, former Fascist party has won most seats in a western European general
    election. Meloni and Brothers of Italy though will need Berlusconi and Salvini's support to govern.

    Also the first victory for the right of centre in a G7 nation's election since Boris and the Tories win in 2019. Truss will welcome PM Meloni as a key ally in a G7 now dominated by liberals and social democrats like Biden, Scholz, Macron and Trudeau
    No HY. Fascists may be of the right, but they are not your friends. I have told you about this before!
    Meloni has said now if she was British she would be a Tory
    And you didn't spot that this is a comment on them, not her?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    Something definitely brewing in the Caucasus.

    https://twitter.com/dmitryopines/status/1574148756404150273?s=21&t=ddJZV13EtD58HukjBLVFIw

    I wonder if social media feeds of Iranians actually fighting back against police are starting to show people how it’s done.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lay Badenoch.
    If this goes tits up it'll be someone from the Rishi/One Nation/Told you so wing.

    They might, though a "stabbed in the back/the revolution failed by not going hard and fast enough" candidate is also plausible, which does look like Kemi B.
    Indeed, Truss is basically a libertarian liberal. Badenoch a full hard conservative, socially as well as economically
    You implying the Kwasi Budget doesn’t tickle Badenoch at all?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,053
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,542

    EPG said:

    Way back in the mid-1990s, just before 1997 landslide, I saw Blair speak at a Fabian conference and i well remember the buzz as he walked in surrounded by what Mason describes here as "earpiece" people. And a dozen TV cameras. There was a certain light, perhaps from some of the cameras, and an intensity of those surrounding him, that made it seem a profound moment.



    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ Starmer - confident, surrounded by "earpiece people" - more presidential than prime ministerial. This works for him and unless Truss can generate a similar buzz at her own zombie conference, will start to soften the media towards Labour ...

    What does Starmer believe in? I think he is an empty shell, projecting ‘I’m not the Tories’. As the Tories are self destructing it’s working. But.
    What does Starmer believe in?

    Take energy. Great to aim for all renewable energy as early as possible. But Starmer seems not have thought about the calm, cloudy winter days problem.

    What does Starmer believe in?
    I don't think it's that puzzling? The part of Labour that's not Corbyn.
    What is that now? Trade unions? Not supporting current strikes. What should the tax levels be? Currently the highest for a very long time. Etc etc
    It's Milibandism, but with the geek in the background rather than as the frontman. The soft-left. An instinct to tax and spend more, but with a realisation that there are limits, both economic and political, and with an ability to count. Prepared to compromise, both with reality and opponents, rather than pursue ideological purity. Look for incremental, achievable improvements, rather than utopian dreams.

    It's a method of thought more than a detailed answer to every question. It is moderate. It is calm.

    At least that what it looks like to me from the outside.

    Personally, I tend towards a more utopian, idealistic and radical position, but generally the British public have not agreed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lay Badenoch.
    If this goes tits up it'll be someone from the Rishi/One Nation/Told you so wing.

    They might, though a "stabbed in the back/the revolution failed by not going hard and fast enough" candidate is also plausible, which does look like Kemi B.
    Indeed, Truss is basically a libertarian liberal. Badenoch a full hard conservative, socially as well as economically
    You implying the Kwasi Budget doesn’t tickle Badenoch at all?
    It does but she adds social conservatism on top.

    Braveman already marking out territory as more hardline on immigration than Truss too with an eye on the next leadership election

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1574147359180718081?s=20&t=6dfURfB8wFTgljgsDGhhhw
  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lay Badenoch.
    If this goes tits up it'll be someone from the Rishi/One Nation/Told you so wing.

    They might, though a "stabbed in the back/the revolution failed by not going hard and fast enough" candidate is also plausible, which does look like Kemi B.
    Indeed, Truss is basically a libertarian liberal. Badenoch a full hard conservative, socially as well as economically
    You implying the Kwasi Budget doesn’t tickle Badenoch at all?
    Tax cuts, especially at the top end, to attract the Global Elite (like KB), yes.

    But funded by massive reductions in the size of the state. Which sounds great until you try to identify what activities the state should no longer do.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    Who cares about Meloni?
    Italy is not going to Quitaly, she’s not soft on Putin, and Italy has been fucked forever and she can hardly fuck it up further.

    It's heartening that the Italian parties of the right who are keenest on Putin (LN and Forza) have both broadly flopped.

    Yes, it's a coalition between fans of Putin and fans of Mussolini.
    No wonder @Leon's cheering. Putin + Mussolini, it's a wet dream for him.
    More an Orbasn
    That’s a better line than the one Vince Cable messed up
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,812
    edited September 25
    TimS said:

    Italian politics always seems to punch below its weight internationally - not since Mussolini has it really had a major influence on other electorates, so I don’t see this making particularly huge waves like Le Pen would have and Trump did. The bigger far right menace within the EU remains Orban.

    Because the Italians are not really commenting on the philosophical contest between left and right; half of them stayed at home in despair, and the others plumped for the latest new arrival promising to throw a hand grenade into their mostly corrupt political system. Knowing, already, that they will be disappointed yet again.
This discussion has been closed.