Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Bojo moving up in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

13567

Comments

  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited September 2022

    Foxy said:

    Starmer is a dull and dutiful technocrat.

    His skill is not in policy-making or in vision-dreaming, but rather in a kind of stolid mediation or arbitration.

    We can already see that the Starmer years will be reasonably dull, and the far left will be disappointed, but the country will be fairer and more content.

    He and Labour need to make sure he is surrounded by a top-notch team, but I find the current Labour front bench the most impressive they’ve had since the Blair years.

    I think his campaign will be dull, vacuous and worthy, but he would have the skills to manage a coalition well. Something that Corbyn never could have done when he was way short of a majority in 2017. That gives Starmer quite the edge.

    On topic, I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE. For better or worse they are stuck with her. No comeback for Johnson, indeed likely to ignominiously lose his own seat at that GE.

    On topic of your on topic, all of a sudden I am not so sure - the herd have got a taste for moving, if Truss was hollowed out by awful polls, elections, scandals - for example as a betting site how many weeks do we think Fulbrook rides this situation before resigning - one more scandal on top and the herd will move, only this time no phase 2 members element. The bookies would make Wallace favourite once Truss is ousted, I agree with HY, if Truss goes Wallace with lead the Conservatives into the election - except for one doubt, he’s not that many weeks ago ruled himself out, why does that change?

    I would have it 50/50 Wallace or Truss leading Tories into next election. Just 2 weeks in and she would already lose a vonc. Six months of awful polling and she’s out.
    1. It is far too early to say Truss is a failure.
    2. Boris is not coming back.
    “ It is far too early to say Truss is a failure. ‘

    Too early to know the final score, but like a football team four down at half time and playing confused disjointed stuff, you can reasonably accurately predict how it ends up.

    Six months of dire polling, slipping into 20s, then to mid 20s, and Truss is voncked. Gone. Yeah. I think we can reasonably predict that already.

    Your second point. Fact is, If Boris had blagged himself into the contest like Corbyn had done when voncked, Boris would still be there is the truth of both the MPs picking top 2 and the membership vote that just happened. Instead of resigning he should have cut a deal as vonc winner to be allowed in contest. As Mike and the evidence in the header should educate you, Boris hasn’t gone away you know. Given a straight choice between Boris economics and Truss economics, the Tory Party would chose the former today let alone after six months of chaos and horrid polls.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,169


    Oh dear.
  • Options

    Will Hutton
    @williamnhutton
    ·
    3h
    Kwasi Kwarteng is the gift that keeps on giving - for hedge funds and currency traders. Telling the world there is “ more to come “ and he is “ only 19 days in” , as one trader tells me, makes only one direction for sterling. Some closing of positions - then £:$ parity beckons.


    I am away to bed. Night all.

    I shall awake to carnage on the markets as the £ gets sold like there is no tomorrow.

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215

    IanB2 said:


    Jon Sopel
    @jonsopel
    Cliff. Pound. Falling. Is. A. Off.
    Rearrange this into a sentence.
    Asian markets now

    I'm having dinner in an expensive restaurant in Asheville and need to get the bill while I can still afford it...
    Get it now, the pound is only down 0.08% vs the dollar right at this moment
    P.s. obviously i realise you were kidding
    When I started paying for things for this trip, we were at around $1.30. I am grateful to all the hotels that charged me upfront.

    Prices have increased noticeably in the US since I last travelled here.

    Still, on the upside, the last two days we’ve been driving relentlessly west through North Carolina, and sunset for me today is nearly half an hour later than it was on Friday.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Coming to this a bit late, but re the BBC and the funeral.

    This was a state funeral paid for by the state ie by us. Ditto the accession councils and all the rest of it. The BBC is funded by those who pay the license fee. This was not a private matter and the BBC was not hired by the RF like some wedding photographer. So the entire film of the occasion is a historic archive not the private property of the monarchy.

    I very much hope the BBC (and, if necessary, the government) tell the monarchy to get stuffed if they try to limit access or use. This sort of arrogance is what will do for the monarchy.

    Yes and the BBC filmed the funeral and accession council and lying in state live and in full.

    However the archive is an entirely different matter, as it was also a funeral of a member of the royal family they get a say on how much of it broadcasters can store and use
    Nonsense. If I filmed part of the funeral, that film belongs to me and the RF has no right to determine what I store and how I use it. No different for the BBC.

    The RF cannot have their cake and eat it. This was a public historic and state event. The private family part of it was not filmed for the public. The RF have no right to determine what happens to films made of them in the public domain.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Von Der Leyen will be even sourer than usual this evening .
    Just rejoice at that news.

    There will be no big drama between Italy and the EU , this is just being inflated by UK media .
    Let's see what the unofficial voice of the Commission says:

    @DaveKeating
    Today's #ItalianElection has put Europe into waters uncharted for many years.

    This will be the first far-right leader in Western Europe since the fall of Franco in Spain 5 decades ago.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1574150783737778176
    Must be a subtle distinction. Hungary's in Eastern Europe and the UK is no longer counted as being in Western Europe as it's not in the EU.
    I have not followed in any detail but seems she is so far right she does not actually want to leave the euro.

    Nor I imagine does she want to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
    Just back to Libya.
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    Macron's party came from nowhere and is very much a "president's party", whereas Meloni, although she fits into the mould of female, non-elite background, far right wing, racist demagogue (cf. Pauline Hanson), is in effect the leader of an established party that goes back to Benito Mussolini and has had a few changes of policy and name through the decades. The flaming tricolour logo is MSI all the way, right down to the red twiddle at the top.

    I'm told the way she uses the term "gender" is very "Opus".

    Jesuit Pope Francis is not going to like this development one bit.

    The Pope will welcome Meloni's emphasis on getting Italians to have more children however

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pope-urges-italians-children-migrants-90468084
    How is she planning to do that? My understanding of the low fertility rate there is that it is due to female education, and limited economic opportunities for the young.
    As well as giving more financial support to mothers with children with paid state maternity leave, lower taxes on married couples with children and free kindergartens open for longer, Meloni is a supporter of keeping abortion restricted beyond 90 days and takes a traditional view on the family and sexuality
    So greatly increased social security spend on mothers and children? Doesn't seem to match the "far right" tag. How is she planning to finance it?

    I note the comments above concerning economic stress as a reason for a low Total Fertility Rate. I am not convinced though, as the highest TFR are in poor countries. It seems as if female education is the principal determinate.

    Perhaps we could solve both the great replacement and the student fee problem by making higher education male only. Indeed to be on the safe side, Secondary education too, like the Taliban.

  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Starmer is a dull and dutiful technocrat.

    His skill is not in policy-making or in vision-dreaming, but rather in a kind of stolid mediation or arbitration.

    We can already see that the Starmer years will be reasonably dull, and the far left will be disappointed, but the country will be fairer and more content.

    He and Labour need to make sure he is surrounded by a top-notch team, but I find the current Labour front bench the most impressive they’ve had since the Blair years.

    I think his campaign will be dull, vacuous and worthy, but he would have the skills to manage a coalition well. Something that Corbyn never could have done when he was way short of a majority in 2017. That gives Starmer quite the edge.

    On topic, I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE. For better or worse they are stuck with her. No comeback for Johnson, indeed likely to ignominiously lose his own seat at that GE.

    On topic of your on topic, all of a sudden I am not so sure - the herd have got a taste for moving, if Truss was hollowed out by awful polls, elections, scandals - for example as a betting site how many weeks do we think Fulbrook rides this situation before resigning - one more scandal on top and the herd will move, only this time no phase 2 members element. The bookies would make Wallace favourite once Truss is ousted, I agree with HY, if Truss goes Wallace with lead the Conservatives into the election - except for one doubt, he’s not that many weeks ago ruled himself out, why does that change?

    I would have it 50/50 Wallace or Truss leading Tories into next election. Just 2 weeks in and she would already lose a vonc. Six months of awful polling and she’s out.
    1. It is far too early to say Truss is a failure.
    2. Boris is not coming back.
    “ It is far too early to say Truss is a failure. ‘

    Too early to know the final score, but like a football team four down at half time and playing confused disjointed stuff, you can reasonably accurately predict how it ends up.

    Six months of dire polling, slipping into 20s, then to mid 20s, and Truss is voncked. Gone. Yeah. I think we can reasonably predict that already.

    Your second point. Fact is, If Boris had blagged himself into the contest like Corbyn had done when voncked, Boris would still be there is the truth of both the MPs picking top 2 and the membership vote that just happened. Instead of resigning he should have cut a deal as vonc winner to be allowed in contest. As Mike and the evidence in the header should educate you, Boris hasn’t gone away you know. Given a straight choice between Boris economics and Trump economics, the Tory Party would chose the former today let alone after six months of chaos and horrid polls.
    She has already chosen the arena she wants to fight in, 'growth', and unceremoniously hauled Starmer into it. I see she has also managed to get him to swallow most of Kwasi's mini-budget. This is within a week of politics proper. Let's delay the post mortem shall we?
  • Options
    Well so far the Red Belt - Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria etc - is looking very blue on the maps.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,826
    IanB2 said:

    ping said:

    “As the energy crisis bites, remember the humble microwave. By Tim Hayward”

    https://www.ft.com/content/46fe9a5f-5504-403a-8874-ecf242a46127

    Spot on!

    The microwave and the modern digital pressure cooker are brilliantly efficient, essential devices for anyone trying to cut down on energy use in cooking. Both thoroughly underrated.

    Only because the energy had already been expended making most of the stuff people typically put in their microwave. From end to end it's unlikely to be an energy efficient way to make food.
    bollocks....last sunday I made a treacle suet pudding because my father loves it and tried a microwave method I found.....made I mean from scratch flour eggs etc....12 minutes at medium vs the normal 3.5 hours steaming it on the hob
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,444

    Is there any bandwagon Andy Burnham won't jump on? He's the most pathetic Labour politician there is.

    He literally has no consistent position on anything. I hate the man

    What's he done now?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    carnforth said:



    Oh dear.

    That Faeroese stadium is quite challenging. Definite home advantage.

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,444

    carnforth said:

    Did Kwarteng choose to remove the 45% rate rather than the 100000 personal allowance cliff-edge because the latter would have required more primary legislation, even if more desirable?

    Will removing the 45% rate result in more tax take? I find the arguments about rates sterile - I want the government to maximise tax revenue by having rates at the correct levels. Anything else is stupid.
    Probably yes. Because people who'd calculated there wasn't any point in working more because it would move them into the 45% bracket will now do so.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Coming to this a bit late, but re the BBC and the funeral.

    This was a state funeral paid for by the state ie by us. Ditto the accession councils and all the rest of it. The BBC is funded by those who pay the license fee. This was not a private matter and the BBC was not hired by the RF like some wedding photographer. So the entire film of the occasion is a historic archive not the private property of the monarchy.

    I very much hope the BBC (and, if necessary, the government) tell the monarchy to get stuffed if they try to limit access or use. This sort of arrogance is what will do for the monarchy.

    Yes and the BBC filmed the funeral and accession council and lying in state live and in full.

    However the archive is an entirely different matter, as it was also a funeral of a member of the royal family they get a say on how much of it broadcasters can store and use
    Nonsense. If I filmed part of the funeral, that film belongs to me and the RF has no right to determine what I store and how I use it. No different for the BBC.

    The RF cannot have their cake and eat it. This was a public historic and state event. The private family part of it was not filmed for the public. The RF have no right to determine what happens to films made of them in the public domain.
    Do you really want to view it again?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Starmer is a dull and dutiful technocrat.

    His skill is not in policy-making or in vision-dreaming, but rather in a kind of stolid mediation or arbitration.

    We can already see that the Starmer years will be reasonably dull, and the far left will be disappointed, but the country will be fairer and more content.

    He and Labour need to make sure he is surrounded by a top-notch team, but I find the current Labour front bench the most impressive they’ve had since the Blair years.

    I think his campaign will be dull, vacuous and worthy, but he would have the skills to manage a coalition well. Something that Corbyn never could have done when he was way short of a majority in 2017. That gives Starmer quite the edge.

    On topic, I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE. For better or worse they are stuck with her. No comeback for Johnson, indeed likely to ignominiously lose his own seat at that GE.

    On topic of your on topic, all of a sudden I am not so sure - the herd have got a taste for moving, if Truss was hollowed out by awful polls, elections, scandals - for example as a betting site how many weeks do we think Fulbrook rides this situation before resigning - one more scandal on top and the herd will move, only this time no phase 2 members element. The bookies would make Wallace favourite once Truss is ousted, I agree with HY, if Truss goes Wallace with lead the Conservatives into the election - except for one doubt, he’s not that many weeks ago ruled himself out, why does that change?

    I would have it 50/50 Wallace or Truss leading Tories into next election. Just 2 weeks in and she would already lose a vonc. Six months of awful polling and she’s out.
    It would lead to a split not another leadership election.
    They left it late in 59-64 parliament, there is not really just a small window for dumping Truss as people think.

    I don’t think May’s horrible end is a good example, her authority shredded by Brexit hard liners on her back benches, but Brown came close to being challenged just two years in, and would have lost if he had been.

    Is there an example of any new mid term PM getting off to such an awful start, certainly in polling?

    It’s easy to imagine Truss replaced by a Wallace government before the next election, perhaps even in the last year to claw some polling back, if the polling and elections are dire. Truss and Kwarzi don’t at all have the time and authority they act like they have.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Did Kwarteng choose to remove the 45% rate rather than the 100000 personal allowance cliff-edge because the latter would have required more primary legislation, even if more desirable?

    Will removing the 45% rate result in more tax take? I find the arguments about rates sterile - I want the government to maximise tax revenue by having rates at the correct levels. Anything else is stupid.
    Probably yes. Because people who'd calculated there wasn't any point in working more because it would move them into the 45% bracket will now do so.
    The bigger problem is the 62% marginal rate between £105-125k. After that, 45% seems a bargain.
  • Options
    Better maps, but well behind in the count v official site:

    https://tg24.sky.it/politica/elezioni/italia/politiche/2022/risultati-mappa
  • Options
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Did Kwarteng choose to remove the 45% rate rather than the 100000 personal allowance cliff-edge because the latter would have required more primary legislation, even if more desirable?

    Will removing the 45% rate result in more tax take? I find the arguments about rates sterile - I want the government to maximise tax revenue by having rates at the correct levels. Anything else is stupid.
    It is thought to cost £2bn in lost tax revenue, if nothing changes. But the claim is things will change.
    I could be wrong, but I believe it is thought to cost £6bn, with improved take bringing that down to £2bn.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Foxy said:

    Starmer is a dull and dutiful technocrat.

    His skill is not in policy-making or in vision-dreaming, but rather in a kind of stolid mediation or arbitration.

    We can already see that the Starmer years will be reasonably dull, and the far left will be disappointed, but the country will be fairer and more content.

    He and Labour need to make sure he is surrounded by a top-notch team, but I find the current Labour front bench the most impressive they’ve had since the Blair years.

    I think his campaign will be dull, vacuous and worthy, but he would have the skills to manage a coalition well. Something that Corbyn never could have done when he was way short of a majority in 2017. That gives Starmer quite the edge.

    On topic, I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE. For better or worse they are stuck with her. No comeback for Johnson, indeed likely to ignominiously lose his own seat at that GE.

    "I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE"

    Let's see what the markets have to say tomorrow.

    IMO it will be an utter meltdown from 8am.

    Asia not buying into the meltdown yet. £ hovering just above 1.08 down a quarter percentish
    The chancellors promise all weekend of further tax cuts shouldn’t really help the pound fight back, in theory?
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,169
    The energy crisis probably make this more likely to be built:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xlinks_Morocco-UK_Power_Project
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913

    Foxy said:

    Starmer is a dull and dutiful technocrat.

    His skill is not in policy-making or in vision-dreaming, but rather in a kind of stolid mediation or arbitration.

    We can already see that the Starmer years will be reasonably dull, and the far left will be disappointed, but the country will be fairer and more content.

    He and Labour need to make sure he is surrounded by a top-notch team, but I find the current Labour front bench the most impressive they’ve had since the Blair years.

    I think his campaign will be dull, vacuous and worthy, but he would have the skills to manage a coalition well. Something that Corbyn never could have done when he was way short of a majority in 2017. That gives Starmer quite the edge.

    On topic, I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE. For better or worse they are stuck with her. No comeback for Johnson, indeed likely to ignominiously lose his own seat at that GE.

    "I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE"

    Let's see what the markets have to say tomorrow.

    IMO it will be an utter meltdown from 8am.

    Asia not buying into the meltdown yet. £ hovering just above 1.08 down a quarter percentish
    The chancellors promise all weekend of further tax cuts shouldn’t really help the pound fight back, in theory?
    Dunno. I mean its a way off so speculators arent going to go all in on it as a dead cert, they arent known for their bravery
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800

    Well so far the Red Belt - Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria etc - is looking very blue on the maps.

    The constituency predictions were never uniformly red across those places, though the red did at least still escape the smallest city centre constituencies, unlike Milan, Rome, Naples.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,227
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Von Der Leyen will be even sourer than usual this evening .
    Just rejoice at that news.

    There will be no big drama between Italy and the EU , this is just being inflated by UK media .
    Let's see what the unofficial voice of the Commission says:

    @DaveKeating
    Today's #ItalianElection has put Europe into waters uncharted for many years.

    This will be the first far-right leader in Western Europe since the fall of Franco in Spain 5 decades ago.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1574150783737778176
    Must be a subtle distinction. Hungary's in Eastern Europe and the UK is no longer counted as being in Western Europe as it's not in the EU.
    I have not followed in any detail but seems she is so far right she does not actually want to leave the euro.

    Nor I imagine does she want to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
    Just back to Libya.
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    Macron's party came from nowhere and is very much a "president's party", whereas Meloni, although she fits into the mould of female, non-elite background, far right wing, racist demagogue (cf. Pauline Hanson), is in effect the leader of an established party that goes back to Benito Mussolini and has had a few changes of policy and name through the decades. The flaming tricolour logo is MSI all the way, right down to the red twiddle at the top.

    I'm told the way she uses the term "gender" is very "Opus".

    Jesuit Pope Francis is not going to like this development one bit.

    The Pope will welcome Meloni's emphasis on getting Italians to have more children however

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pope-urges-italians-children-migrants-90468084
    How is she planning to do that? My understanding of the low fertility rate there is that it is due to female education, and limited economic opportunities for the young.
    As well as giving more financial support to mothers with children with paid state maternity leave, lower taxes on married couples with children and free kindergartens open for longer, Meloni is a supporter of keeping abortion restricted beyond 90 days and takes a traditional view on the family and sexuality
    So greatly increased social security spend on mothers and children? Doesn't seem to match the "far right" tag. How is she planning to finance it?

    I note the comments above concerning economic stress as a reason for a low Total Fertility Rate. I am not convinced though, as the highest TFR are in poor countries. It seems as if female education is the principal determinate.

    Perhaps we could solve both the great replacement and the student fee problem by making higher education male only. Indeed to be on the safe side, Secondary education too, like the Taliban.

    How does female education account for the much lower birthrate in Italy (1.24)compared to Germany (1.53), France(1.79), or UK (1.57)?

    Economics of having children likely to be a big factor in those differences.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,169

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Did Kwarteng choose to remove the 45% rate rather than the 100000 personal allowance cliff-edge because the latter would have required more primary legislation, even if more desirable?

    Will removing the 45% rate result in more tax take? I find the arguments about rates sterile - I want the government to maximise tax revenue by having rates at the correct levels. Anything else is stupid.
    It is thought to cost £2bn in lost tax revenue, if nothing changes. But the claim is things will change.
    I could be wrong, but I believe it is thought to cost £6bn, with improved take bringing that down to £2bn.
    You may be right: I was working from memory not a source.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503

    Foxy said:

    Starmer is a dull and dutiful technocrat.

    His skill is not in policy-making or in vision-dreaming, but rather in a kind of stolid mediation or arbitration.

    We can already see that the Starmer years will be reasonably dull, and the far left will be disappointed, but the country will be fairer and more content.

    He and Labour need to make sure he is surrounded by a top-notch team, but I find the current Labour front bench the most impressive they’ve had since the Blair years.

    I think his campaign will be dull, vacuous and worthy, but he would have the skills to manage a coalition well. Something that Corbyn never could have done when he was way short of a majority in 2017. That gives Starmer quite the edge.

    On topic, I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE. For better or worse they are stuck with her. No comeback for Johnson, indeed likely to ignominiously lose his own seat at that GE.

    On topic of your on topic, all of a sudden I am not so sure - the herd have got a taste for moving, if Truss was hollowed out by awful polls, elections, scandals - for example as a betting site how many weeks do we think Fulbrook rides this situation before resigning - one more scandal on top and the herd will move, only this time no phase 2 members element. The bookies would make Wallace favourite once Truss is ousted, I agree with HY, if Truss goes Wallace with lead the Conservatives into the election - except for one doubt, he’s not that many weeks ago ruled himself out, why does that change?

    I would have it 50/50 Wallace or Truss leading Tories into next election. Just 2 weeks in and she would already lose a vonc. Six months of awful polling and she’s out.
    1. It is far too early to say Truss is a failure.
    2. Boris is not coming back.
    “ It is far too early to say Truss is a failure. ‘

    Too early to know the final score, but like a football team four down at half time and playing confused disjointed stuff, you can reasonably accurately predict how it ends up.

    Six months of dire polling, slipping into 20s, then to mid 20s, and Truss is voncked. Gone. Yeah. I think we can reasonably predict that already.

    Your second point. Fact is, If Boris had blagged himself into the contest like Corbyn had done when voncked, Boris would still be there is the truth of both the MPs picking top 2 and the membership vote that just happened. Instead of resigning he should have cut a deal as vonc winner to be allowed in contest. As Mike and the evidence in the header should educate you, Boris hasn’t gone away you know. Given a straight choice between Boris economics and Trump economics, the Tory Party would chose the former today let alone after six months of chaos and horrid polls.
    She has already chosen the arena she wants to fight in, 'growth', and unceremoniously hauled Starmer into it. I see she has also managed to get him to swallow most of Kwasi's mini-budget. This is within a week of politics proper. Let's delay the post mortem shall we?
    Starmer and Labour have been banging on about growth as the financial answer, as indeed have the last few Tory governments. It is the magic money tree that everyone wants to harvest but no one can find.

    No budget is instantly met with a policy to reverse it, not least because there needs to be time to understand its effects, and no one writes a budget 2 years into the future.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    Well so far the Red Belt - Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria etc - is looking very blue on the maps.

    Italy's own, slightly posher redwall falling to the populist right?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    edited September 2022
    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Von Der Leyen will be even sourer than usual this evening .
    Just rejoice at that news.

    There will be no big drama between Italy and the EU , this is just being inflated by UK media .
    Let's see what the unofficial voice of the Commission says:

    @DaveKeating
    Today's #ItalianElection has put Europe into waters uncharted for many years.

    This will be the first far-right leader in Western Europe since the fall of Franco in Spain 5 decades ago.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1574150783737778176
    Must be a subtle distinction. Hungary's in Eastern Europe and the UK is no longer counted as being in Western Europe as it's not in the EU.
    I have not followed in any detail but seems she is so far right she does not actually want to leave the euro.

    Nor I imagine does she want to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
    Just back to Libya.
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    Macron's party came from nowhere and is very much a "president's party", whereas Meloni, although she fits into the mould of female, non-elite background, far right wing, racist demagogue (cf. Pauline Hanson), is in effect the leader of an established party that goes back to Benito Mussolini and has had a few changes of policy and name through the decades. The flaming tricolour logo is MSI all the way, right down to the red twiddle at the top.

    I'm told the way she uses the term "gender" is very "Opus".

    Jesuit Pope Francis is not going to like this development one bit.

    The Pope will welcome Meloni's emphasis on getting Italians to have more children however

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pope-urges-italians-children-migrants-90468084
    How is she planning to do that? My understanding of the low fertility rate there is that it is due to female education, and limited economic opportunities for the young.
    As well as giving more financial support to mothers with children with paid state maternity leave, lower taxes on married couples with children and free kindergartens open for longer, Meloni is a supporter of keeping abortion restricted beyond 90 days and takes a traditional view on the family and sexuality
    So greatly increased social security spend on mothers and children? Doesn't seem to match the "far right" tag. How is she planning to finance it?

    I note the comments above concerning economic stress as a reason for a low Total Fertility Rate. I am not convinced though, as the highest TFR are in poor countries. It seems as if female education is the principal determinate.

    Perhaps we could solve both the great replacement and the student fee problem by making higher education male only. Indeed to be on the safe side, Secondary education too, like the Taliban.

    How does female education account for the much lower birthrate in Italy (1.24)compared to Germany (1.53), France(1.79), or UK (1.57)?

    Economics of having children likely to be a big factor in those differences.
    Sure, welfare and other benefits around matter too, but answer why does Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have such low TFR, and why is Niger the highest in the world?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited September 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Coming to this a bit late, but re the BBC and the funeral.

    This was a state funeral paid for by the state ie by us. Ditto the accession councils and all the rest of it. The BBC is funded by those who pay the license fee. This was not a private matter and the BBC was not hired by the RF like some wedding photographer. So the entire film of the occasion is a historic archive not the private property of the monarchy.

    I very much hope the BBC (and, if necessary, the government) tell the monarchy to get stuffed if they try to limit access or use. This sort of arrogance is what will do for the monarchy.

    Yes and the BBC filmed the funeral and accession council and lying in state live and in full.

    However the archive is an entirely different matter, as it was also a funeral of a member of the royal family they get a say on how much of it broadcasters can store and use
    Nonsense. If I filmed part of the funeral, that film belongs to me and the RF has no right to determine what I store and how I use it. No different for the BBC.

    The RF cannot have their cake and eat it. This was a public historic and state event. The private family part of it was not filmed for the public. The RF have no right to determine what happens to films made of them in the public domain.
    No it doesn't, it was the Queen's funeral and a contract will have been brought up saying how archival images could be used when the BBC was given rights to cover it. No cameras were allowed into Westminster Abbey so no, you could not have filmed the funeral.

    The royal family have every right to determine what happens to archive footage of a family event such as a wedding or funeral. The coronation will be different as that is formally anointing the next head of state, as would an event such as the State Opening of Parliament or a royal visit.

    Indeed British television channels explicitly gave the royal family a veto on the use of archival footage from the Queen's funeral it emerges, so they cannot complain about it now

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/22/royal-family-veto-footage-coverage-queen-elizabeth-ii-funeral
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Foxy said:

    Starmer is a dull and dutiful technocrat.

    His skill is not in policy-making or in vision-dreaming, but rather in a kind of stolid mediation or arbitration.

    We can already see that the Starmer years will be reasonably dull, and the far left will be disappointed, but the country will be fairer and more content.

    He and Labour need to make sure he is surrounded by a top-notch team, but I find the current Labour front bench the most impressive they’ve had since the Blair years.

    I think his campaign will be dull, vacuous and worthy, but he would have the skills to manage a coalition well. Something that Corbyn never could have done when he was way short of a majority in 2017. That gives Starmer quite the edge.

    On topic, I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE. For better or worse they are stuck with her. No comeback for Johnson, indeed likely to ignominiously lose his own seat at that GE.

    On topic of your on topic, all of a sudden I am not so sure - the herd have got a taste for moving, if Truss was hollowed out by awful polls, elections, scandals - for example as a betting site how many weeks do we think Fulbrook rides this situation before resigning - one more scandal on top and the herd will move, only this time no phase 2 members element. The bookies would make Wallace favourite once Truss is ousted, I agree with HY, if Truss goes Wallace with lead the Conservatives into the election - except for one doubt, he’s not that many weeks ago ruled himself out, why does that change?

    I would have it 50/50 Wallace or Truss leading Tories into next election. Just 2 weeks in and she would already lose a vonc. Six months of awful polling and she’s out.
    1. It is far too early to say Truss is a failure.
    2. Boris is not coming back.
    “ It is far too early to say Truss is a failure. ‘

    Too early to know the final score, but like a football team four down at half time and playing confused disjointed stuff, you can reasonably accurately predict how it ends up.

    Six months of dire polling, slipping into 20s, then to mid 20s, and Truss is voncked. Gone. Yeah. I think we can reasonably predict that already.

    Your second point. Fact is, If Boris had blagged himself into the contest like Corbyn had done when voncked, Boris would still be there is the truth of both the MPs picking top 2 and the membership vote that just happened. Instead of resigning he should have cut a deal as vonc winner to be allowed in contest. As Mike and the evidence in the header should educate you, Boris hasn’t gone away you know. Given a straight choice between Boris economics and Trump economics, the Tory Party would chose the former today let alone after six months of chaos and horrid polls.
    She has already chosen the arena she wants to fight in, 'growth', and unceremoniously hauled Starmer into it. I see she has also managed to get him to swallow most of Kwasi's mini-budget. This is within a week of politics proper. Let's delay the post mortem shall we?
    Nope. Because you are quite clearly spinning it. The fact is last two weeks has been horrendous politics, not just horrendous economics. The right thing to have done is stand by struggling households by taxing bankers and energy companies, why is that the right thing? Lady Thatcher stood by struggling households by taking extra tax from bankers and energy companies during a recession and was awarded with two landslide wins. Truss has done the very opposite. 7 or 8 months sliding in the polls until her party have had enough is so easy to predict today.
  • Options
    ping said:

    I’m on Boris at 16/1.

    I tipped it here at the time.

    Should be 4/1, imo.

    Boris is 14/1 next PM, 10/1 next Con leader with several bookmakers. I'd have thought next PM more likely than next Con leader because I doubt Boris would fancy four or five years as Leader of the Opposition. The freebies/work ratio is poor.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    HYUFD said:

    Well so far the Red Belt - Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria etc - is looking very blue on the maps.

    Italy's own, slightly posher redwall falling to the populist right?
    9 Tuscan constituencies.

    In early, not necessarily representative, counting:

    Right lead in 6 (marginally in Pisa)
    Left lead in 2 (Florence and Scandicci)
    Leghorn (the most wonderfully pointless anglicisation of a place name ever) yet to confirm any vote counts.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    HYUFD said:

    Well so far the Red Belt - Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria etc - is looking very blue on the maps.

    Italy's own, slightly posher redwall falling to the populist right?
    Looking like a landslide for the right now, every region of Italy shaded in the blue of the right except Campania where 5 Star leads

    https://elezioni.repubblica.it/2022/cameradeideputati/
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,227
    Foxy said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Von Der Leyen will be even sourer than usual this evening .
    Just rejoice at that news.

    There will be no big drama between Italy and the EU , this is just being inflated by UK media .
    Let's see what the unofficial voice of the Commission says:

    @DaveKeating
    Today's #ItalianElection has put Europe into waters uncharted for many years.

    This will be the first far-right leader in Western Europe since the fall of Franco in Spain 5 decades ago.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1574150783737778176
    Must be a subtle distinction. Hungary's in Eastern Europe and the UK is no longer counted as being in Western Europe as it's not in the EU.
    I have not followed in any detail but seems she is so far right she does not actually want to leave the euro.

    Nor I imagine does she want to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
    Just back to Libya.
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    Macron's party came from nowhere and is very much a "president's party", whereas Meloni, although she fits into the mould of female, non-elite background, far right wing, racist demagogue (cf. Pauline Hanson), is in effect the leader of an established party that goes back to Benito Mussolini and has had a few changes of policy and name through the decades. The flaming tricolour logo is MSI all the way, right down to the red twiddle at the top.

    I'm told the way she uses the term "gender" is very "Opus".

    Jesuit Pope Francis is not going to like this development one bit.

    The Pope will welcome Meloni's emphasis on getting Italians to have more children however

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pope-urges-italians-children-migrants-90468084
    How is she planning to do that? My understanding of the low fertility rate there is that it is due to female education, and limited economic opportunities for the young.
    As well as giving more financial support to mothers with children with paid state maternity leave, lower taxes on married couples with children and free kindergartens open for longer, Meloni is a supporter of keeping abortion restricted beyond 90 days and takes a traditional view on the family and sexuality
    So greatly increased social security spend on mothers and children? Doesn't seem to match the "far right" tag. How is she planning to finance it?

    I note the comments above concerning economic stress as a reason for a low Total Fertility Rate. I am not convinced though, as the highest TFR are in poor countries. It seems as if female education is the principal determinate.

    Perhaps we could solve both the great replacement and the student fee problem by making higher education male only. Indeed to be on the safe side, Secondary education too, like the Taliban.

    How does female education account for the much lower birthrate in Italy (1.24)compared to Germany (1.53), France(1.79), or UK (1.57)?

    Economics of having children likely to be a big factor in those differences.
    Sure, welfare and other benefits around matter too, but answer why does Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have such low TFR, and why is Niger the highest in the world?
    I'm sure that female education is a very big factor in Niger's case. Are you turning into HYUFD?



    Is there really a higher level of female education in Italy and Spain than in France and the UK?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well so far the Red Belt - Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria etc - is looking very blue on the maps.

    Italy's own, slightly posher redwall falling to the populist right?
    9 Tuscan constituencies.

    In early, not necessarily representative, counting:

    Right lead in 6 (marginally in Pisa)
    Left lead in 2 (Florence and Scandicci)
    Leghorn (the most wonderfully pointless anglicisation of a place name ever) yet to confirm any vote counts.
    For the right to win Tuscany seems a bit like the Tories winning Hampstead or Islington
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited September 2022
    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Von Der Leyen will be even sourer than usual this evening .
    Just rejoice at that news.

    There will be no big drama between Italy and the EU , this is just being inflated by UK media .
    Let's see what the unofficial voice of the Commission says:

    @DaveKeating
    Today's #ItalianElection has put Europe into waters uncharted for many years.

    This will be the first far-right leader in Western Europe since the fall of Franco in Spain 5 decades ago.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1574150783737778176
    Must be a subtle distinction. Hungary's in Eastern Europe and the UK is no longer counted as being in Western Europe as it's not in the EU.
    I have not followed in any detail but seems she is so far right she does not actually want to leave the euro.

    Nor I imagine does she want to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
    Just back to Libya.
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    Macron's party came from nowhere and is very much a "president's party", whereas Meloni, although she fits into the mould of female, non-elite background, far right wing, racist demagogue (cf. Pauline Hanson), is in effect the leader of an established party that goes back to Benito Mussolini and has had a few changes of policy and name through the decades. The flaming tricolour logo is MSI all the way, right down to the red twiddle at the top.

    I'm told the way she uses the term "gender" is very "Opus".

    Jesuit Pope Francis is not going to like this development one bit.

    The Pope will welcome Meloni's emphasis on getting Italians to have more children however

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pope-urges-italians-children-migrants-90468084
    How is she planning to do that? My understanding of the low fertility rate there is that it is due to female education, and limited economic opportunities for the young.
    As well as giving more financial support to mothers with children with paid state maternity leave, lower taxes on married couples with children and free kindergartens open for longer, Meloni is a supporter of keeping abortion restricted beyond 90 days and takes a traditional view on the family and sexuality
    So greatly increased social security spend on mothers and children? Doesn't seem to match the "far right" tag. How is she planning to finance it?

    I note the comments above concerning economic stress as a reason for a low Total Fertility Rate. I am not convinced though, as the highest TFR are in poor countries. It seems as if female education is the principal determinate.

    Perhaps we could solve both the great replacement and the student fee problem by making higher education male only. Indeed to be on the safe side, Secondary education too, like the Taliban.

    How does female education account for the much lower birthrate in Italy (1.24)compared to Germany (1.53), France(1.79), or UK (1.57)?

    Economics of having children likely to be a big factor in those differences.
    Sure, welfare and other benefits around matter too, but answer why does Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have such low TFR, and why is Niger the highest in the world?
    I'm sure that female education is a very big factor in Niger's case. Are you turning into HYUFD?

    Is there really a higher level of female education in Italy and Spain than in France and the UK?
    UK’s is explained by immigration; France’s by strong pro-natal policies.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    ping said:

    I’m on Boris at 16/1.

    I tipped it here at the time.

    Should be 4/1, imo.

    Boris is 14/1 next PM, 10/1 next Con leader with several bookmakers. I'd have thought next PM more likely than next Con leader because I doubt Boris would fancy four or five years as Leader of the Opposition. The freebies/work ratio is poor.
    Boris is actually growing stronger with each days timeout from front line politics. How many actual elections with everyday voters has he lost? How insignificant him getting into a tangle of lies in the past over partygate the more it disappears into the past? How much of his entourage has Truss needlessly and unwisely cheesed off? Classic saviour over the sea scenario building here.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,726
    It was always going to be a landslide for the right once the left remained fractured and didn’t enter into a coalition. The 36% which are FPTP will overwhelmingly go to the right .
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well so far the Red Belt - Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria etc - is looking very blue on the maps.

    Italy's own, slightly posher redwall falling to the populist right?
    9 Tuscan constituencies.

    In early, not necessarily representative, counting:

    Right lead in 6 (marginally in Pisa)
    Left lead in 2 (Florence and Scandicci)
    Leghorn (the most wonderfully pointless anglicisation of a place name ever) yet to confirm any vote counts.
    For the right to win Tuscany seems a bit like the Tories winning Hampstead or Islington
    It's not too far from Islington to Enfield of course, but yes, that has been a solid block in previous elections.

    Emilia is little different.

    11 constituencies, 10 have blue leads, and Bologna, which is the nearest you'll get to Islington profile, hasn't confirmed any counting yet.
  • Options
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well so far the Red Belt - Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Umbria etc - is looking very blue on the maps.

    Italy's own, slightly posher redwall falling to the populist right?
    9 Tuscan constituencies.

    In early, not necessarily representative, counting:

    Right lead in 6 (marginally in Pisa)
    Left lead in 2 (Florence and Scandicci)
    Leghorn (the most wonderfully pointless anglicisation of a place name ever) yet to confirm any vote counts.
    For the right to win Tuscany seems a bit like the Tories winning Hampstead or Islington
    It's not too far from Islington to Enfield of course, but yes, that has been a solid block in previous elections.

    Emilia is little different.

    11 constituencies, 10 have blue leads, and Bologna, which is the nearest you'll get to Islington profile, hasn't confirmed any counting yet.
    Bologna is more like Brighton or Bristol.

  • Options
    DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Von Der Leyen will be even sourer than usual this evening .
    Just rejoice at that news.

    There will be no big drama between Italy and the EU , this is just being inflated by UK media .
    Let's see what the unofficial voice of the Commission says:

    @DaveKeating
    Today's #ItalianElection has put Europe into waters uncharted for many years.

    This will be the first far-right leader in Western Europe since the fall of Franco in Spain 5 decades ago.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1574150783737778176
    Must be a subtle distinction. Hungary's in Eastern Europe and the UK is no longer counted as being in Western Europe as it's not in the EU.
    I have not followed in any detail but seems she is so far right she does not actually want to leave the euro.

    Nor I imagine does she want to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
    Just back to Libya.
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    Macron's party came from nowhere and is very much a "president's party", whereas Meloni, although she fits into the mould of female, non-elite background, far right wing, racist demagogue (cf. Pauline Hanson), is in effect the leader of an established party that goes back to Benito Mussolini and has had a few changes of policy and name through the decades. The flaming tricolour logo is MSI all the way, right down to the red twiddle at the top.

    I'm told the way she uses the term "gender" is very "Opus".

    Jesuit Pope Francis is not going to like this development one bit.

    The Pope will welcome Meloni's emphasis on getting Italians to have more children however

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pope-urges-italians-children-migrants-90468084
    How is she planning to do that? My understanding of the low fertility rate there is that it is due to female education, and limited economic opportunities for the young.
    As well as giving more financial support to mothers with children with paid state maternity leave, lower taxes on married couples with children and free kindergartens open for longer, Meloni is a supporter of keeping abortion restricted beyond 90 days and takes a traditional view on the family and sexuality
    So greatly increased social security spend on mothers and children? Doesn't seem to match the "far right" tag
    Fascists love going on about the need for high fertility in the favoured ethnic group, and they support state spending to encourage it.

    * Battle for Births (Fascist Italy).
    * "A nation without a children is a nation without a future". (Ustashist Croatia).
    * The famous "14 words" so beloved of white supremacists in the US and elsewhere.
    * Etc. etc.

    Fascists are collectivists, not individualists or libertarians.

    Women's education is another matter.





  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    So it looks like Italy has elected a female Farage as its new PM and will rely on Berlusconi, the Italian Boris, to be the moderate influence in the rightwing coalition government between Brothers of Italy, Lega Nord and Forza Italia. Except on Ukraine of course where Meloni is the most anti Putin leader of the 3 right of centre parties
  • Options
    DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Dynamo said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Von Der Leyen will be even sourer than usual this evening .
    Just rejoice at that news.

    There will be no big drama between Italy and the EU , this is just being inflated by UK media .
    Let's see what the unofficial voice of the Commission says:

    @DaveKeating
    Today's #ItalianElection has put Europe into waters uncharted for many years.

    This will be the first far-right leader in Western Europe since the fall of Franco in Spain 5 decades ago.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1574150783737778176
    Must be a subtle distinction. Hungary's in Eastern Europe and the UK is no longer counted as being in Western Europe as it's not in the EU.
    I have not followed in any detail but seems she is so far right she does not actually want to leave the euro.

    Nor I imagine does she want to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
    Just back to Libya.
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    Macron's party came from nowhere and is very much a "president's party", whereas Meloni, although she fits into the mould of female, non-elite background, far right wing, racist demagogue (cf. Pauline Hanson), is in effect the leader of an established party that goes back to Benito Mussolini and has had a few changes of policy and name through the decades. The flaming tricolour logo is MSI all the way, right down to the red twiddle at the top.

    I'm told the way she uses the term "gender" is very "Opus".

    Jesuit Pope Francis is not going to like this development one bit.

    The Pope will welcome Meloni's emphasis on getting Italians to have more children however

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pope-urges-italians-children-migrants-90468084
    How is she planning to do that? My understanding of the low fertility rate there is that it is due to female education, and limited economic opportunities for the young.
    As well as giving more financial support to mothers with children with paid state maternity leave, lower taxes on married couples with children and free kindergartens open for longer, Meloni is a supporter of keeping abortion restricted beyond 90 days and takes a traditional view on the family and sexuality
    So greatly increased social security spend on mothers and children? Doesn't seem to match the "far right" tag
    Fascists love going on about the need for high fertility in the favoured ethnic group, and they support state spending to encourage it.

    * Battle for Births (Fascist Italy).
    * "A nation without a children is a nation without a future". (Ustashist Croatia).
    * The famous "14 words" so beloved of white supremacists in the US and elsewhere.
    * Etc. etc.

    Fascists are collectivists, not individualists or libertarians.

    Women's education is another matter.
    I wouldn't be surprised if state support for mothers was a major part of the meaning of the word "Social" in the name of both the Italian Social Movement (MSI) and the Italian Social Republic (RSI - aka the Salo Republic, admired by those for whom Mussolini's Italy wasn't Nazi enough).
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,444
    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like Italy has elected a female Farage as its new PM and will rely on Berlusconi, the Italian Boris, to be the moderate influence in the rightwing coalition government between Brothers of Italy, Lega Nord and Forza Italia. Except on Ukraine of course where Meloni is the most anti Putin leader of the 3 right of centre parties

    Although Sky Italy was just pointing out that Brothers of Italy and the Lega might have an overall majority between them without Berlusconi's party.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,227
    Dynamo said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Von Der Leyen will be even sourer than usual this evening .
    Just rejoice at that news.

    There will be no big drama between Italy and the EU , this is just being inflated by UK media .
    Let's see what the unofficial voice of the Commission says:

    @DaveKeating
    Today's #ItalianElection has put Europe into waters uncharted for many years.

    This will be the first far-right leader in Western Europe since the fall of Franco in Spain 5 decades ago.


    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1574150783737778176
    Must be a subtle distinction. Hungary's in Eastern Europe and the UK is no longer counted as being in Western Europe as it's not in the EU.
    I have not followed in any detail but seems she is so far right she does not actually want to leave the euro.

    Nor I imagine does she want to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
    Just back to Libya.
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    Macron's party came from nowhere and is very much a "president's party", whereas Meloni, although she fits into the mould of female, non-elite background, far right wing, racist demagogue (cf. Pauline Hanson), is in effect the leader of an established party that goes back to Benito Mussolini and has had a few changes of policy and name through the decades. The flaming tricolour logo is MSI all the way, right down to the red twiddle at the top.

    I'm told the way she uses the term "gender" is very "Opus".

    Jesuit Pope Francis is not going to like this development one bit.

    The Pope will welcome Meloni's emphasis on getting Italians to have more children however

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pope-urges-italians-children-migrants-90468084
    How is she planning to do that? My understanding of the low fertility rate there is that it is due to female education, and limited economic opportunities for the young.
    As well as giving more financial support to mothers with children with paid state maternity leave, lower taxes on married couples with children and free kindergartens open for longer, Meloni is a supporter of keeping abortion restricted beyond 90 days and takes a traditional view on the family and sexuality
    So greatly increased social security spend on mothers and children? Doesn't seem to match the "far right" tag
    Fascists love going on about the need for high fertility in the favoured ethnic group, and they support state spending to encourage it.

    * Battle for Births (Fascist Italy).
    * "A nation without a children is a nation without a future". (Ustashist Croatia).
    * The famous "14 words" so beloved of white supremacists in the US and elsewhere.
    * Etc. etc.

    Fascists are collectivists, not individualists or libertarians.

    Women's education is another matter.





    Isn't the policy of tax breaks for bigger families something Putin introduced a couple of years ago to encourage Russians to have more children?
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    I hadn’t quite grasped the scale of the recent increase in long term rates;

    https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/european-market-rates

    30 yr gilts up from 1.2% last year to 4.03% now.

    Our fiscal situation is increasingly dire.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,169
    edited September 2022
    ping said:

    I hadn’t quite grasped the scale of the recent increase in long term rates;

    https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/european-market-rates

    30 yr gilts up from 1.2% last year to 4.03% now.

    Our fiscal situation is increasingly dire.

    Out of my depth here, but my understanding is that QE flatters long term gilt rates, and that our turn to QT would inevitably raise them compared with countries still in QE and the BoE would have expected that.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ping said:

    “As the energy crisis bites, remember the humble microwave. By Tim Hayward”

    https://www.ft.com/content/46fe9a5f-5504-403a-8874-ecf242a46127

    Spot on!

    The microwave and the modern digital pressure cooker are brilliantly efficient, essential devices for anyone trying to cut down on energy use in cooking. Both thoroughly underrated.

    Only because the energy had already been expended making most of the stuff people typically put in their microwave. From end to end it's unlikely to be an energy efficient way to make food.
    bollocks....last sunday I made a treacle suet pudding because my father loves it and tried a microwave method I found.....made I mean from scratch flour eggs etc....12 minutes at medium vs the normal 3.5 hours steaming it on the hob
    Of course, but then you skipped over the “most of the stuff people typically…” in my post. Trust me, the masses aren’t using their microwaves for homemade suet pudding.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Coming to this a bit late, but re the BBC and the funeral.

    This was a state funeral paid for by the state ie by us. Ditto the accession councils and all the rest of it. The BBC is funded by those who pay the license fee. This was not a private matter and the BBC was not hired by the RF like some wedding photographer. So the entire film of the occasion is a historic archive not the private property of the monarchy.

    I very much hope the BBC (and, if necessary, the government) tell the monarchy to get stuffed if they try to limit access or use. This sort of arrogance is what will do for the monarchy.

    Yes and the BBC filmed the funeral and accession council and lying in state live and in full.

    However the archive is an entirely different matter, as it was also a funeral of a member of the royal family they get a say on how much of it broadcasters can store and use
    Nonsense. If I filmed part of the funeral, that film belongs to me and the RF has no right to determine what I store and how I use it. No different for the BBC.

    The RF cannot have their cake and eat it. This was a public historic and state event. The private family part of it was not filmed for the public. The RF have no right to determine what happens to films made of them in the public domain.
    Do you really want to view it again?
    No. But others might in the future. And they should not be limited because the RF wants to limit what others can see of an event which was paid for by us. If they want to treat it as a private event, they can bloody well pay for the entire cost of it - including the rehearsals and the training of the soldiers, police, paramedics and all the many others involved in it.

    They are public servants. So they have been telling us endlessly for the last 2 weeks. So when they are on public duty, as they were during state occasions, they are filmed by others and do not get to control what others can do with the results of that filming. This is the price they pay for the immense privileges they get.
    It wasn't solely a private event, it was broadcast live by all the main broadcasters.

    However it was also a funeral for a family member and they are entitled to get some control of how archive footage of it is used in the future and the broadcasters themselves agreed to that when they signed up to cover it.

    The coronation is different, a public event confirming our new head of state not a family funeral
  • Options
    DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like Italy has elected a female Farage as its new PM and will rely on Berlusconi, the Italian Boris, to be the moderate influence in the rightwing coalition government between Brothers of Italy, Lega Nord and Forza Italia. Except on Ukraine of course where Meloni is the most anti Putin leader of the 3 right of centre parties

    Berlusconi and Putin:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfV0x1e4zZs

    Lest anyone be amused at Berlusconi pretending to shoot journalist Natalia Melikova for asking the wrong question about Putin, be aware that she and her colleagues didn't find it so funny and fled the country without even gathering all their stuff.

    image
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Coming to this a bit late, but re the BBC and the funeral.

    This was a state funeral paid for by the state ie by us. Ditto the accession councils and all the rest of it. The BBC is funded by those who pay the license fee. This was not a private matter and the BBC was not hired by the RF like some wedding photographer. So the entire film of the occasion is a historic archive not the private property of the monarchy.

    I very much hope the BBC (and, if necessary, the government) tell the monarchy to get stuffed if they try to limit access or use. This sort of arrogance is what will do for the monarchy.

    Yes and the BBC filmed the funeral and accession council and lying in state live and in full.

    However the archive is an entirely different matter, as it was also a funeral of a member of the royal family they get a say on how much of it broadcasters can store and use
    Nonsense. If I filmed part of the funeral, that film belongs to me and the RF has no right to determine what I store and how I use it. No different for the BBC.

    The RF cannot have their cake and eat it. This was a public historic and state event. The private family part of it was not filmed for the public. The RF have no right to determine what happens to films made of them in the public domain.
    Do you really want to view it again?
    No. But others might in the future. And they should not be limited because the RF wants to limit what others can see of an event which was paid for by us. If they want to treat it as a private event, they can bloody well pay for the entire cost of it - including the rehearsals and the training of the soldiers, police, paramedics and all the many others involved in it.

    They are public servants. So they have been telling us endlessly for the last 2 weeks. So when they are on public duty, as they were during state occasions, they are filmed by others and do not get to control what others can do with the results of that filming. This is the price they pay for the immense privileges they get.
    It wasn't solely a private event, it was broadcast live by all the main broadcasters.

    However it was also a funeral for a family member and they are entitled to get some control of how archive footage of it is used in the future and the broadcasters themselves agreed to that when they signed up to cover it.

    The coronation is different, a public event confirming our new head of state not a family funeral
    Undemocratically unelected head of state.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Coming to this a bit late, but re the BBC and the funeral.

    This was a state funeral paid for by the state ie by us. Ditto the accession councils and all the rest of it. The BBC is funded by those who pay the license fee. This was not a private matter and the BBC was not hired by the RF like some wedding photographer. So the entire film of the occasion is a historic archive not the private property of the monarchy.

    I very much hope the BBC (and, if necessary, the government) tell the monarchy to get stuffed if they try to limit access or use. This sort of arrogance is what will do for the monarchy.

    Yes and the BBC filmed the funeral and accession council and lying in state live and in full.

    However the archive is an entirely different matter, as it was also a funeral of a member of the royal family they get a say on how much of it broadcasters can store and use
    Nonsense. If I filmed part of the funeral, that film belongs to me and the RF has no right to determine what I store and how I use it. No different for the BBC.

    The RF cannot have their cake and eat it. This was a public historic and state event. The private family part of it was not filmed for the public. The RF have no right to determine what happens to films made of them in the public domain.
    Do you really want to view it again?
    No. But others might in the future. And they should not be limited because the RF wants to limit what others can see of an event which was paid for by us. If they want to treat it as a private event, they can bloody well pay for the entire cost of it - including the rehearsals and the training of the soldiers, police, paramedics and all the many others involved in it.

    They are public servants. So they have been telling us endlessly for the last 2 weeks. So when they are on public duty, as they were during state occasions, they are filmed by others and do not get to control what others can do with the results of that filming. This is the price they pay for the immense privileges they get.
    It wasn't solely a private event, it was broadcast live by all the main broadcasters.

    However it was also a funeral for a family member and they are entitled to get some control of how archive footage of it is used in the future and the broadcasters themselves agreed to that when they signed up to cover it.

    The coronation is different, a public event confirming our new head of state not a family funeral
    Undemocratically unelected head of state.
    Constitutional monarch, we elect our government and parliament
  • Options
    ping said:

    I hadn’t quite grasped the scale of the recent increase in long term rates;

    https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/european-market-rates

    30 yr gilts up from 1.2% last year to 4.03% now.

    Our fiscal situation is increasingly dire.

    I am wondering what Rishi Sunak is thinking (I told you so..... springs to mind) or is he hovering around the tearooms catching the eye of backbench big hitters.)...the Tory Conf is going to be quite a spectacle, eso if Boris is given a platform
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    edited September 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like Italy has elected a female Farage as its new PM and will rely on Berlusconi, the Italian Boris, to be the moderate influence in the rightwing coalition government between Brothers of Italy, Lega Nord and Forza Italia. Except on Ukraine of course where Meloni is the most anti Putin leader of the 3 right of centre parties

    Although Sky Italy was just pointing out that Brothers of Italy and the Lega might have an overall majority between them without Berlusconi's party.
    The projection is all 3 parties are needed, LN/ FdI is about 178, 22 short.

    Looking at Greater Naples, aka Campania 01. M5S were predicted not to get a single constituency seat by most prior models, but they've nationally gone from 11% to the 16% where they were just on the cusp of sneaking the odd one, to the point where they look like winning 5 or possibly 6 of the 7 Greater Naples constituencies on 45% of the vote.

    Mostly taken from the centre right.

    From the Sky predicted 29 M5S/27 Left/25 Right in Fuorigrotta, the actual count. around halfway, sits at 40 / 24/ 21 to M5S - Di Maio is being trounced.

    Will be a small but potentially useful bite out of the arse of Meloni's majority.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Coming to this a bit late, but re the BBC and the funeral.

    This was a state funeral paid for by the state ie by us. Ditto the accession councils and all the rest of it. The BBC is funded by those who pay the license fee. This was not a private matter and the BBC was not hired by the RF like some wedding photographer. So the entire film of the occasion is a historic archive not the private property of the monarchy.

    I very much hope the BBC (and, if necessary, the government) tell the monarchy to get stuffed if they try to limit access or use. This sort of arrogance is what will do for the monarchy.

    Yes and the BBC filmed the funeral and accession council and lying in state live and in full.

    However the archive is an entirely different matter, as it was also a funeral of a member of the royal family they get a say on how much of it broadcasters can store and use
    Nonsense. If I filmed part of the funeral, that film belongs to me and the RF has no right to determine what I store and how I use it. No different for the BBC.

    The RF cannot have their cake and eat it. This was a public historic and state event. The private family part of it was not filmed for the public. The RF have no right to determine what happens to films made of them in the public domain.
    Do you really want to view it again?
    No. But others might in the future. And they should not be limited because the RF wants to limit what others can see of an event which was paid for by us. If they want to treat it as a private event, they can bloody well pay for the entire cost of it - including the rehearsals and the training of the soldiers, police, paramedics and all the many others involved in it.

    They are public servants. So they have been telling us endlessly for the last 2 weeks. So when they are on public duty, as they were during state occasions, they are filmed by others and do not get to control what others can do with the results of that filming. This is the price they pay for the immense privileges they get.
    It wasn't solely a private event, it was broadcast live by all the main broadcasters.

    However it was also a funeral for a family member and they are entitled to get some control of how archive footage of it is used in the future and the broadcasters themselves agreed to that when they signed up to cover it.

    The coronation is different, a public event confirming our new head of state not a family funeral
    Undemocratically unelected head of state.
    Constitutional monarch, we elect our government and parliament
    Still unelected. Remember: MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Coming to this a bit late, but re the BBC and the funeral.

    This was a state funeral paid for by the state ie by us. Ditto the accession councils and all the rest of it. The BBC is funded by those who pay the license fee. This was not a private matter and the BBC was not hired by the RF like some wedding photographer. So the entire film of the occasion is a historic archive not the private property of the monarchy.

    I very much hope the BBC (and, if necessary, the government) tell the monarchy to get stuffed if they try to limit access or use. This sort of arrogance is what will do for the monarchy.

    Yes and the BBC filmed the funeral and accession council and lying in state live and in full.

    However the archive is an entirely different matter, as it was also a funeral of a member of the royal family they get a say on how much of it broadcasters can store and use
    Nonsense. If I filmed part of the funeral, that film belongs to me and the RF has no right to determine what I store and how I use it. No different for the BBC.

    The RF cannot have their cake and eat it. This was a public historic and state event. The private family part of it was not filmed for the public. The RF have no right to determine what happens to films made of them in the public domain.
    Do you really want to view it again?
    No. But others might in the future. And they should not be limited because the RF wants to limit what others can see of an event which was paid for by us. If they want to treat it as a private event, they can bloody well pay for the entire cost of it - including the rehearsals and the training of the soldiers, police, paramedics and all the many others involved in it.

    They are public servants. So they have been telling us endlessly for the last 2 weeks. So when they are on public duty, as they were during state occasions, they are filmed by others and do not get to control what others can do with the results of that filming. This is the price they pay for the immense privileges they get.
    It wasn't solely a private event, it was broadcast live by all the main broadcasters.

    However it was also a funeral for a family member and they are entitled to get some control of how archive footage of it is used in the future and the broadcasters themselves agreed to that when they signed up to cover it.

    The coronation is different, a public event confirming our new head of state not a family funeral
    Undemocratically unelected head of state.
    Constitutional monarch, we elect our government and parliament
    Still unelected. Remember: MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!
    No Monarchy = Toryism. State control of most of the economy = Socialism
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    £1=$1.0704

    “Great for exports,” @BartholomewRoberts tells us.

    Just imagine how great our exports will be when we hit £1=$0

    We’ll be rich!
  • Options
    Pound is now $1.07
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    $1.0669
  • Options
    Seen on Twitter, the pound has lost 8.5% of its value against the dollar since the Queen died.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    $1.0569
  • Options
    ping said:

    $1.0569

    Fuck.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    $1.0396
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,726
    ping said:

    $1.0569

    This will import loads of inflation into the economy and will cause huge concern in the BOE . Kwartengs comments re more tax cuts was moronic as it will just put more pressure on the pound .
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    Bottomed out at $1.0335

    Now $1.05

    Serious volatility.
  • Options
    ping said:

    Bottomed out at $1.0335

    Now $1.05

    Serious volatility.

    Bloody hell.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    nico679 said:

    ping said:

    $1.0569

    This will import loads of inflation into the economy and will cause huge concern in the BOE . Kwartengs comments re more tax cuts was moronic as it will just put more pressure on the pound .
    I imagine lots of Tory MPs will be furious with him in private, If not in public. They have several former chancellors on the backbenches and pretty much every Tory MP fancies themselves as chancellor.

    A chancellor who doesn’t command the respect of the markets doesn’t tend to last very long. Especially a Tory chancellor who appears to be a complete idiot.

    Back down to $1.044

    ~4% down over the weekend.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    Kwazi to last the week?

    I’d go 1/4 yes, 4/1 no.
  • Options
    Don't the markets take note of the WSJ's wisdom?
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,169

    Don't the markets take note of the WSJ's wisdom?

    Perhaps it is considered a contraindicator…
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    Procedural question:

    Have Tory MPs actually voted confidence in Truss, yet? Has there even been a parliamentary vote since she became leader?
  • Options
    This is scary.
  • Options
    Drifting back toward $1.04.

    It just feels like Truss and Kwarteng, the Daily Mail, Big G and Barty Bobbins are refusing to address reality.

    I expect a broadcast from Truss at some stage in which she concedes that the economy has not developed necessarily to the UK’s advantage.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022

    Drifting back toward $1.04.

    It just feels like Truss and Kwarteng, the Daily Mail, Big G and Barty Bobbins are refusing to address reality.

    I expect a broadcast from Truss at some stage in which she concedes that the economy has not developed necessarily to the UK’s advantage.

    More likely;

    “I was wrong: It’s not just the treasury orthodoxy that needs replacing, it’s the market orthodoxy that is broken! Believe in Britain!”
  • Options
    DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    ping said:

    Procedural question:

    Have Tory MPs actually voted confidence in Truss, yet? Has there even been a parliamentary vote since she became leader?

    Q1: no, because there hasn't been a confidence motion (or a no confidence motion).

    Q2: if on 6 Sep she became PM prior to the 6pm vote in the Commons on the second reading of the Trade (Australia and New Zealand) Bill, then yes; otherwise, no.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    Dynamo said:

    ping said:

    Procedural question:

    Have Tory MPs actually voted confidence in Truss, yet? Has there even been a parliamentary vote since she became leader?

    Q1: no, because there hasn't been a confidence motion (or a no confidence motion).

    Q2: if on 6 Sep she became PM prior to the 6pm vote in the Commons on the second reading of the Trade (Australia and New Zealand) Bill, then yes; otherwise, no.
    Thanks. That’s very interesting…

    From this -

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24941/elizabeth_truss/south_west_norfolk/recent

    It appears her last vote was in July. Similar for other MPs. I don’t know how comprehensive that site is, though.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    £ seems to be bumping around $1.05 in early Asia trade.

    Down ~3.5% over the weekend.

    We’ll see what happens when Europe wakes up.
  • Options
    DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    Wouldn't it be good if the Leader of the Opposition could ask the Speaker to recall the Commons so there could be a vote of no confidence in the government? Well OK, he can ask, but he'd be wasting his time because the Speaker can only recall the Commons if he receives a request from the government. The pound could fall to 80 US cents by lunchtime and that wouldn't change.

    Can we even say there is an opposition when parliament is in recess?
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976
    I can’t see Truss or Kwasi lasting the week if this continues.

    Seriously dire.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    @starsports_bet

    ⚠️ | BIG BET ALERT

    We have laid £150,000 at 4/6 on:
    𝐋𝐀𝐁𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐌𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐒𝐄𝐀𝐓𝐒 𝐍𝐄𝐗𝐓 𝐆𝐄𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐀𝐋 𝐄𝐋𝐄𝐂𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍



    Seems like a terrible bet, to me, from the perspective of the punter.

    Not because it’s bad value. It isn’t. But, assuming SSB aren’t offering credit, the time value of money will seriously decay the real value of the stake/winnings. Also, with respect to star sports bet, they’re not the biggest bookie in the world. The punter is taking on some counterparty risk.
  • Options
    ping said:

    @starsports_bet

    ⚠️ | BIG BET ALERT

    We have laid £150,000 at 4/6 on:
    𝐋𝐀𝐁𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐌𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐒𝐄𝐀𝐓𝐒 𝐍𝐄𝐗𝐓 𝐆𝐄𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐀𝐋 𝐄𝐋𝐄𝐂𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍



    Seems like a terrible bet, to me, from the perspective of the punter.

    Not because it’s bad value. It isn’t. But the time value of money will decay the value of the winnings. Also, with respect to star sports bet, they’re not the biggest bookie in the world.the punter is taking on some counterparty risk, there.

    Star Sports will take a bet, although they rarely offer the best price in the market.
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976
    ping said:

    £ seems to be bumping around $1.05 in early Asia trade.

    Down ~3.5% over the weekend.

    We’ll see what happens when Europe wakes up.

    1.03 now
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022

    ping said:

    £ seems to be bumping around $1.05 in early Asia trade.

    Down ~3.5% over the weekend.

    We’ll see what happens when Europe wakes up.

    1.03 now
    My broker is quoting $1.0556, now. It’s been fairly stable for the last half hour or so.

    Bottomed out at $1.03350 around an hour ago.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    I can’t see Truss or Kwasi lasting the week if this continues.

    Seriously dire.

    Steady. I was taking a hammering for giving them a whole seven more months.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    Suboptimal headline for the tories;

    “Pound slumps to all-time low against dollar”

    The pound has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar since decimalisation in 1971.

    In early Asia trade, sterling fell by more than 4% to $1.0327 before regaining some ground to around $1.05.

    That came after UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled historic tax cuts funded by huge increases in borrowing.

    The pound has also been under pressure as the dollar has been boosted by the US central bank continuing to raise interest rates.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63030208

    tldr; for liz: Pound go pop!
  • Options
    This feels worse than Black Wednesday back in 1992 (showin' my age)... it seems entirely self inflicted - who will go first Governor of Bank of England o KK?
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976

    I can’t see Truss or Kwasi lasting the week if this continues.

    Seriously dire.

    Steady. I was taking a hammering for giving them a whole seven more months.
    Ha, well. I just can’t see Tories being in a forgiving mood. They probably could have steadied the ship but instead look like they fancy total wipe out instead at the next GE
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976

    This feels worse than Black Wednesday back in 1992 (showin' my age)... it seems entirely self inflicted - who will go first Governor of Bank of England o KK?

    Truss. I recall many on here telling me she’d surprise on the upside? In truth, I had thought she wouldn’t go through with most of the stuff she spouted.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Foxy said:

    Starmer is a dull and dutiful technocrat.

    His skill is not in policy-making or in vision-dreaming, but rather in a kind of stolid mediation or arbitration.

    We can already see that the Starmer years will be reasonably dull, and the far left will be disappointed, but the country will be fairer and more content.

    He and Labour need to make sure he is surrounded by a top-notch team, but I find the current Labour front bench the most impressive they’ve had since the Blair years.

    I think his campaign will be dull, vacuous and worthy, but he would have the skills to manage a coalition well. Something that Corbyn never could have done when he was way short of a majority in 2017. That gives Starmer quite the edge.

    On topic, I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE. For better or worse they are stuck with her. No comeback for Johnson, indeed likely to ignominiously lose his own seat at that GE.

    On topic of your on topic, all of a sudden I am not so sure - the herd have got a taste for moving, if Truss was hollowed out by awful polls, elections, scandals - for example as a betting site how many weeks do we think Fulbrook rides this situation before resigning - one more scandal on top and the herd will move, only this time no phase 2 members element. The bookies would make Wallace favourite once Truss is ousted, I agree with HY, if Truss goes Wallace with lead the Conservatives into the election - except for one doubt, he’s not that many weeks ago ruled himself out, why does that change?

    I would have it 50/50 Wallace or Truss leading Tories into next election. Just 2 weeks in and she would already lose a vonc. Six months of awful polling and she’s out.
    1. It is far too early to say Truss is a failure.
    2. Boris is not coming back.
    “ It is far too early to say Truss is a failure. ‘

    Too early to know the final score, but like a football team four down at half time and playing confused disjointed stuff, you can reasonably accurately predict how it ends up.

    Six months of dire polling, slipping into 20s, then to mid 20s, and Truss is voncked. Gone. Yeah. I think we can reasonably predict that already.

    Your second point. Fact is, If Boris had blagged himself into the contest like Corbyn had done when voncked, Boris would still be there is the truth of both the MPs picking top 2 and the membership vote that just happened. Instead of resigning he should have cut a deal as vonc winner to be allowed in contest. As Mike and the evidence in the header should educate you, Boris hasn’t gone away you know. Given a straight choice between Boris economics and Trump economics, the Tory Party would chose the former today let alone after six months of chaos and horrid polls.
    She has already chosen the arena she wants to fight in, 'growth', and unceremoniously hauled Starmer into it. I see she has also managed to get him to swallow most of Kwasi's mini-budget. This is within a week of politics proper. Let's delay the post mortem shall we?
    Nope. Because you are quite clearly spinning it. The fact is last two weeks has been horrendous politics, not just horrendous economics. The right thing to have done is stand by struggling households by taxing bankers and energy companies, why is that the right thing? Lady Thatcher stood by struggling households by taking extra tax from bankers and energy companies during a recession and was awarded with two landslide wins. Truss has done the very opposite. 7 or 8 months sliding in the polls until her party have had enough is so easy to predict today.
    Apologies to be a bit blunt there - calling it spin. It’s the bit you claim Truss hasn’t yet forced down Starmer’s throat that’s the crucial bit defining her period of office “there we were starving, and they gave the cake to the richest 1%, all we could hope for were crumbs brushed off the plate.”

    The Tory century was built upon, don’t let labour in they want to borrow and spend too much they will wreck the economy. Now that can’t be used for goodness knows how long.

    Thatcher built two landslides on standing with struggling households in recession by taxing energy companies and bankers with special tax grab - Truss government has done exactly opposite, sending out completely opposite vibes!

    “Growth.” So how much growth is there going to be in next 24 months? And, apart from the south east, how much of the red and blue wall feel the benefits - like schools in Devon who feel they are missing out on money going elsewhere?

    Each time I consider it, it seems 7 months of dire to very dire polling and then a vonc, to fight the next election with a cabinet more representative of tge party rather than a sort of cult takeover.
  • Options
    ping said:

    This feels worse than Black Wednesday back in 1992 (showin' my age)... it seems entirely self inflicted - who will go first Governor of Bank of England o KK?

    Truss. I recall many on here telling me she’d surprise on the upside? In truth, I had thought she wouldn’t go through with most of the stuff she spouted.
    How much is this rug pulled from under our currency fuelled by not just the cutting of income in favour of long term borrowing to pay the bills, but so nakedly side lining the OBR?

    Correct me where wrong, Osborne created it to give oomph and credibility to what he was saying and doing, as a chancellor you want your words to carry weight and credibility, side lining it actually drains what you are saying of credibility?
    Yes. It’s becoming clear that neither Liz nor Kwazi know what they’re doing. Both politically and economically they’re making huge errors. Liz, in particular, seems to have adopted this “I’m great and all the experts are arses” attitude. I don’t understand how she got anywhere near number 10.

    Next, she’ll be claiming all the vulture capitalists buying up British companies at a huge discount is “Great for Britain”
    She promised the moon on a stick to people who had the power to give her job. And they did so.
  • Options
    ping said:

    This feels worse than Black Wednesday back in 1992 (showin' my age)... it seems entirely self inflicted - who will go first Governor of Bank of England o KK?

    Truss. I recall many on here telling me she’d surprise on the upside? In truth, I had thought she wouldn’t go through with most of the stuff she spouted.
    How much is this rug pulled from under our currency fuelled by not just the cutting of income in favour of long term borrowing to pay the bills, but so nakedly side lining the OBR?

    Correct me where wrong, Osborne created it to give oomph and credibility to what he was saying and doing, as a chancellor you want your words to carry weight and credibility, side lining it actually drains what you are saying of credibility?
    Yes. It’s becoming clear that neither Liz nor Kwazi know what they’re doing. Both politically and economically they’re making huge errors. Liz, in particular, seems to have adopted this “I’m great and all the experts are arses” attitude. I don’t understand how she got anywhere near number 10.

    Next, she’ll be claiming all the vulture capitalists buying up British companies at a huge discount is “Great for Britain”
    Its all a bit like BJ.... the members knew what they were getting when they selected him/her and they've got it in spades - we were warned aplenty.... this is another failure of the Cons leadership process...
  • Options

    This feels worse than Black Wednesday back in 1992 (showin' my age)... it seems entirely self inflicted - who will go first Governor of Bank of England o KK?

    Truss. I recall many on here telling me she’d surprise on the upside? In truth, I had thought she wouldn’t go through with most of the stuff she spouted.
    I have not been surprised. It was always clear to me that she/they were interested in power & patronage, not governance.
  • Options

    ping said:

    I’m on Boris at 16/1.

    I tipped it here at the time.

    Should be 4/1, imo.

    Boris is 14/1 next PM, 10/1 next Con leader with several bookmakers. I'd have thought next PM more likely than next Con leader because I doubt Boris would fancy four or five years as Leader of the Opposition. The freebies/work ratio is poor.
    Boris is actually growing stronger with each days timeout from front line politics. How many actual elections with everyday voters has he lost? How insignificant him getting into a tangle of lies in the past over partygate the more it disappears into the past? How much of his entourage has Truss needlessly and unwisely cheesed off? Classic saviour over the sea scenario building here.
    Boris needs to get past the Privileges Committee next, in order to remain a viable king over the water. I'd not want to invest yet.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    “It looks like we’re headed for a spiral that we usually see in emerging markets crises, where policymakers struggle to reassert credibility,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7f815b6-e7f2-43d2-b160-b7b3182e63b4
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Coming to this a bit late, but re the BBC and the funeral.

    This was a state funeral paid for by the state ie by us. Ditto the accession councils and all the rest of it. The BBC is funded by those who pay the license fee. This was not a private matter and the BBC was not hired by the RF like some wedding photographer. So the entire film of the occasion is a historic archive not the private property of the monarchy.

    I very much hope the BBC (and, if necessary, the government) tell the monarchy to get stuffed if they try to limit access or use. This sort of arrogance is what will do for the monarchy.

    Yes and the BBC filmed the funeral and accession council and lying in state live and in full.

    However the archive is an entirely different matter, as it was also a funeral of a member of the royal family they get a say on how much of it broadcasters can store and use
    Nonsense. If I filmed part of the funeral, that film belongs to me and the RF has no right to determine what I store and how I use it. No different for the BBC.

    The RF cannot have their cake and eat it. This was a public historic and state event. The private family part of it was not filmed for the public. The RF have no right to determine what happens to films made of them in the public domain.
    HYUFD is convinced, for some reason, that there’s s written contract. Which seems a bit daft to me.
    The RF will be doing what they always do, which is a mixture of trading on the habitual over-deference of the major broadcasters, and threatening to withhold future access. They should be politely but firmly resisted.
  • Options

    ping said:

    I’m on Boris at 16/1.

    I tipped it here at the time.

    Should be 4/1, imo.

    Boris is 14/1 next PM, 10/1 next Con leader with several bookmakers. I'd have thought next PM more likely than next Con leader because I doubt Boris would fancy four or five years as Leader of the Opposition. The freebies/work ratio is poor.
    Boris is actually growing stronger with each days timeout from front line politics. How many actual elections with everyday voters has he lost? How insignificant him getting into a tangle of lies in the past over partygate the more it disappears into the past? How much of his entourage has Truss needlessly and unwisely cheesed off? Classic saviour over the sea scenario building here.
    Boris needs to get past the Privileges Committee next, in order to remain a viable king over the water. I'd not want to invest yet.
    I do not doubt that the selectorate would put Boris back in No.10 but he is still Boris and just as damaging to the Tory brand and UK politics as he was before.

    He is just less damaging than Truss but he is not exactly a prize!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    This is just bizarre given the US commitment to freedom of speech.

    Public-University Curricula Are ‘Government Speech,’ Florida Says
    https://www.chronicle.com/article/public-university-curricula-are-government-speech-florida-says
    The state of Florida asserted on Friday that faculty members’ curriculum and in-class instruction at public universities is “government speech” and “not the speech of the educators themselves.” Therefore, such expression is fair game to be regulated by state lawmakers.

    “A public university’s curriculum is set by the university in accordance with the strictures and guidance of the State’s elected officials,” lawyers for the state wrote in a court filing. “It is government speech.”…


    This is Orbanism.
  • Options

    ping said:

    I’m on Boris at 16/1.

    I tipped it here at the time.

    Should be 4/1, imo.

    Boris is 14/1 next PM, 10/1 next Con leader with several bookmakers. I'd have thought next PM more likely than next Con leader because I doubt Boris would fancy four or five years as Leader of the Opposition. The freebies/work ratio is poor.
    Boris is actually growing stronger with each days timeout from front line politics. How many actual elections with everyday voters has he lost? How insignificant him getting into a tangle of lies in the past over partygate the more it disappears into the past? How much of his entourage has Truss needlessly and unwisely cheesed off? Classic saviour over the sea scenario building here.
    Boris needs to get past the Privileges Committee next, in order to remain a viable king over the water. I'd not want to invest yet.
    I do not doubt that the selectorate would put Boris back in No.10 but he is still Boris and just as damaging to the Tory brand and UK politics as he was before.

    He is just less damaging than Truss but he is not exactly a prize!
    Sunak is looking better by the minute....
  • Options

    ping said:

    I’m on Boris at 16/1.

    I tipped it here at the time.

    Should be 4/1, imo.

    Boris is 14/1 next PM, 10/1 next Con leader with several bookmakers. I'd have thought next PM more likely than next Con leader because I doubt Boris would fancy four or five years as Leader of the Opposition. The freebies/work ratio is poor.
    Boris is actually growing stronger with each days timeout from front line politics. How many actual elections with everyday voters has he lost? How insignificant him getting into a tangle of lies in the past over partygate the more it disappears into the past? How much of his entourage has Truss needlessly and unwisely cheesed off? Classic saviour over the sea scenario building here.
    Boris needs to get past the Privileges Committee next, in order to remain a viable king over the water. I'd not want to invest yet.
    I do not doubt that the selectorate would put Boris back in No.10 but he is still Boris and just as damaging to the Tory brand and UK politics as he was before.

    He is just less damaging than Truss but he is not exactly a prize!
    Sunak is looking better by the minute....
    My mother's dog would be a better leader than any of them.
This discussion has been closed.