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Bojo moving up in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW UK Government borrowing costs surge again on market opening

    Now 4.35% for a two year gilt (was 3.2% a week ago, 1.7% at beginning of August)… 4.1% for 10 year

    Sterling fighting back in last hour - still down but by less. $1.07


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574296562355806209

    Some signs that @Leon is right and there is a bottom for now. But that bottom will only be temporary until we address the structural problems.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    Scott_xP said:

    "The day has just begun in London but markets are all heading in precisely the direction Downing St didn't want to see."

    Ed Conway.

    The Government have refused to comment on the direction of travel.

    On what basis can we assume they are unhappy?

    All their mates are getting rich
    You don't have to be their mate to short the pound if you're convinced it will fall further.
    You don't have to be but they are.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Under Thatcher, the pound fell from $2.44 in 1980 to $1.07 in 1985, and she won a landslide in the middle of it.

    Are you suggesting another Falklands War might help?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    dixiedean said:

    We were presented a choice between Scandinavia or the USA.
    Unfortunately, we seem to have gone for Argentina.

    Well Tory ministers haven't had a decent grasp of geography in quite a while.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    We were presented a choice between Scandinavia or the USA.
    Unfortunately, we seem to have gone for Argentina.

    Well Tory ministers haven't had a decent grasp of geography in quite a while.
    They haven't shaken off the Rostov years from their O-level geography.

    The sooner it's Don the better.
  • eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Could all the newfound converts to exchange rate targeting tell us which dollar exchange rate the government should aim for and why?

    As someone who was on Holiday in the US in the summer, and quite liked it, I'd prefer £2 to the dollar. Don't know what the economic implications of that are, but since it's not happening it doesn't matter anyway.
    You may want to check your maths there as you've just made £1 worth half what it currently is which makes the US twice as expensive as it was when you last visited it.

    For reference that would make an iphone 14 £1600 rather than the £800 it currently is...
    Why do people *need* the latest iPhone?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    kle4 said:

    If Leon is the one remaining calm and advising people not to panic that seems a clear sign we are through the looking glass.

    He's just grumpy he didn't start panicking ahead of the rest of us.
  • Under Thatcher, the pound fell from $2.44 in 1980 to $1.07 in 1985, and she won a landslide in the middle of it.

    Are you suggesting another Falklands War might help?
    North Sea oil boom II might..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited September 2022
    Ignore the exchange rates, it is the cost of government borrowing that will screw the country and the Tories.

    Anyhoo as our analysts predicted last week after the special financial operation, we're going to have a Black Wednesday/IMF loan seminal moment and we know those events keep governments out of office for a decade plus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    DavidL said:

    I am sorry to keep whinging on about it but the current economic situation is a result of us ignoring our trade balance for 30 years. We simply have far less room for manoeuvre now. The rest of the world has put up their savings to buy our assets to fund our profligacy. They call the tunes and Kwasi is off key.

    A government which already has an enormous trade deficit simply cannot boost growth with tax cuts and public spending designed to boost consumption. We have run out of capital to draw on. We need to cut consumption, increase taxes, cut government spending and recognise we can’t live beyond our means indefinitely. Exactly the same prescription that the World bank has been inflicting on under capitalised third world countries for decades now.

    Very true. So the question is for you few remaining pro-Tory posters with brains is this: what the fuck are they doing???? The (we've had enough of) experts" said borrowing money to pay for tax cuts to the very rich was mad, doing it whilst borrowing costs were soaring was insane, then they saw Kamikwarteng literally cackling at the dispatch box as he slammed down lunacy after lunacy on Friday.

    This isn't a run on the pound. If the gilts price report is correct its now a run on the UK. The world has looked at the new PM and Chancellor and decided - with good reason - they are mentalists. So, Tories. What's your next play?
    We've already seen the reaction. Go all in. We're one step away from the government whinging that the problem is simply that people don't believe hard enough.

    Lord help us.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    DavidL said:

    I am sorry to keep whinging on about it but the current economic situation is a result of us ignoring our trade balance for 30 years. We simply have far less room for manoeuvre now. The rest of the world has put up their savings to buy our assets to fund our profligacy. They call the tunes and Kwasi is off key.

    A government which already has an enormous trade deficit simply cannot boost growth with tax cuts and public spending designed to boost consumption. We have run out of capital to draw on. We need to cut consumption, increase taxes, cut government spending and recognise we can’t live beyond our means indefinitely. Exactly the same prescription that the World bank has been inflicting on under capitalised third world countries for decades now.

    Very true. So the question is for you few remaining pro-Tory posters with brains is this: what the fuck are they doing???? The (we've had enough of) experts" said borrowing money to pay for tax cuts to the very rich was mad, doing it whilst borrowing costs were soaring was insane, then they saw Kamikwarteng literally cackling at the dispatch box as he slammed down lunacy after lunacy on Friday.

    This isn't a run on the pound. If the gilts price report is correct its now a run on the UK. The world has looked at the new PM and Chancellor and decided - with good reason - they are mentalists. So, Tories. What's your next play?
    If they bin Truss and co the Tory party admits they screwed up and chances are they will lose power for a long time...

    If they keep Truss and co in place there may be a chance that this will work and things will improve. Now we all know there really isn't but then again we are clueful and your typical Tory member isn't .....

    The one great thing here is that the way taxes have been set up the only source of tax revenue now available is going to be an almost inevitable property / wealth tax...
  • eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Could all the newfound converts to exchange rate targeting tell us which dollar exchange rate the government should aim for and why?

    As someone who was on Holiday in the US in the summer, and quite liked it, I'd prefer £2 to the dollar. Don't know what the economic implications of that are, but since it's not happening it doesn't matter anyway.
    You may want to check your maths there as you've just made £1 worth half what it currently is which makes the US twice as expensive as it was when you last visited it.

    For reference that would make an iphone 14 £1600 rather than the £800 it currently is...
    Why do people *need* the latest iPhone?
    One of life's mysteries.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Under Thatcher, the pound fell from $2.44 in 1980 to $1.07 in 1985, and she won a landslide in the middle of it.

    Are you suggesting another Falklands War might help?
    North Sea oil boom II might..
    I am not sure a host of new North Sea rigs can be scrambled as quickly as a Royal Navy taskforce.
  • DavidL said:

    The bank will need to bring in an emergency interest rate rise this morning. We might have got away with matching the 0.75% from the Fed but the Bank once again blew it. That chance has now gone and we need to catch up with the Fed and possibly even go ahead of them.

    Getting those who voted for 0.5% ( including the governor) to resign might also be a good move, indicating that the bank takes inflation seriously and recognises the risk of imported inflation from a weak pound.

    The government too has to recognise that we can’t keep putting “emergencies” on the credit card. We did it with the GFC, with Covid and now with gas. We have to accept that our terms of trade no longer permit this. We are too indebted as a nation to afford it.

    Heresy. Mistress Truss was very clear on this. Countries which had massive manufacturing and export sectors had waaaaay more debt than we had, so she absolutely could borrow billions to pay tax cuts for millionaires, it would be cheap, and people would Love It.

    Are you saying that in fact Mistress Truss is wrong? Because she believes this to be continuity Thatcherism. We know it isn't, but they have branded it thus, and the right wing media went to town on how amazing she and it is. They can't all be wrong. So we must be. There is no crisis. Everything is fine. Stop Talking Down Britain. Vote Conservative unless you want those woke aliens turning your male born children into trans.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Truss needs another hundred days or so to not be the shortest serving PM ever. Just saying.
  • The other tipping point, we could get a credit rating cut and the problem is that the people who lend governments money are often obligated to only to lend to the countries with the best ratings, the UK may have to borrow from the equivalent of WONGA.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    kle4 said:

    Truss needs another hundred days or so to not be the shortest serving PM ever. Just saying.

    She needs to sack Kwasi
  • eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Could all the newfound converts to exchange rate targeting tell us which dollar exchange rate the government should aim for and why?

    As someone who was on Holiday in the US in the summer, and quite liked it, I'd prefer £2 to the dollar. Don't know what the economic implications of that are, but since it's not happening it doesn't matter anyway.
    You may want to check your maths there as you've just made £1 worth half what it currently is which makes the US twice as expensive as it was when you last visited it.

    For reference that would make an iphone 14 £1600 rather than the £800 it currently is...
    Why do people *need* the latest iPhone?
    Nobody "needs" it but they might "want" it. It is one of the most important distinctions in marketing consumer products
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Ignore the exchange rates, it is the cost of government borrowing that will screw the country and the Tories.

    Anyhoo as our analysts predicted last week after the special financial operation, we're going to have a Black Wednesday/IMF loan seminal moment and we know those events keep governments out of office for a decade plus.

    I'm not so sure - at the moment there is still little chance of a Labour Majority Government as the SNP are still going to win 50 or so Scottish seats.

    On the upside support from the Lib Dems will be required for Labour to govern which will mean electoral reform will occur in the next Parliament...
  • Under Thatcher, the pound fell from $2.44 in 1980 to $1.07 in 1985, and she won a landslide in the middle of it.

    The amount of jowl wobbling on this on PB this morning is quite risible. People are making some money selling the pound. At some future point, people will decide that there's money to be made buying it. Been here plenty of times before.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW UK Government borrowing costs surge again on market opening

    Now 4.35% for a two year gilt (was 3.2% a week ago, 1.7% at beginning of August)… 4.1% for 10 year

    Sterling fighting back in last hour - still down but by less. $1.07


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574296562355806209

    Speculating on an emergency BoE meeting and rate rise? Or somebody somewhere in the world trying to prop it up?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Could all the newfound converts to exchange rate targeting tell us which dollar exchange rate the government should aim for and why?

    As someone who was on Holiday in the US in the summer, and quite liked it, I'd prefer £2 to the dollar. Don't know what the economic implications of that are, but since it's not happening it doesn't matter anyway.
    You may want to check your maths there as you've just made £1 worth half what it currently is which makes the US twice as expensive as it was when you last visited it.

    For reference that would make an iphone 14 £1600 rather than the £800 it currently is...
    Why do people *need* the latest iPhone?
    Reminds me of soviet era economics. Why does anyone need a new Mercedes when you can get in a waiting list for a 10 year old Lada?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    The more worrying thing is our borrowing costs as a country rocketing

    There’s no money left - for anything.
  • Ignore the exchange rates, it is the cost of government borrowing that will screw the country and the Tories.

    Anyhoo as our analysts predicted last week after the special financial operation, we're going to have a Black Wednesday/IMF loan seminal moment and we know those events keep governments out of office for a decade plus.

    Its Black Monday. Today. In the 1992 edition a young David Cameron was observed skulking behind the Chancellor - he learned a clear lesson that day and when PM years later did the other thing. Spot for future PMs of the 2040s when Kamikaze does his own presser later today.
  • I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027

    Leon said:

    At some point it will become prudent to buy the £, and UK debt

    You guys are just a bunch of knicker-wetters. In a not good way

    Our chief knicker-wetting correspondent writes..
    Absolutely. Odd to see Leon so calm when he’s often hysterical about other events
  • tlg86 said:

    There are no good options for the Tories from here. The only question now is, can Labour win an overall majority? I think they can, even without a big recovery in Scotland.

    Yeah, it's certainly feasible.

    It's early days, but future historians may have to look at which party self-defeated the most: Labour under Corbyn, or the Conservatives under Truss and the latter days of Johnson (who was riding high in the polls until two years ago).

    I'd argue the Conservatives have it worst, as they're doing this sh*t whilst they are in power. Labour at least had their lunacy in opposition.
    Just imagine the coverage if the pound and gilts had performed as they have since Friday morning after a Labour budget in which billions more had been borrowed to fund better public services and infrastructure.

    Hey, I'm not defending that budget. I'm hardly a financial expert, but it seems a little crazy to me, and pretty much a political suicide note.

    Is *anyone* on here defending it? Does anyone think it is a good budget (leaving aside the terrible political optics)?
    🙋‍♂️
  • The more worrying thing is our borrowing costs as a country rocketing

    There’s no money left - for anything.

    I'm looking forward to it.

    The country will be forced live within its means.
  • Ignore the exchange rates, it is the cost of government borrowing that will screw the country and the Tories.

    Anyhoo as our analysts predicted last week after the special financial operation, we're going to have a Black Wednesday/IMF loan seminal moment and we know those events keep governments out of office for a decade plus.

    Forcing Labour to rebase spending… I like it 😂
  • DavidL said:

    I am sorry to keep whinging on about it but the current economic situation is a result of us ignoring our trade balance for 30 years. We simply have far less room for manoeuvre now. The rest of the world has put up their savings to buy our assets to fund our profligacy. They call the tunes and Kwasi is off key.

    A government which already has an enormous trade deficit simply cannot boost growth with tax cuts and public spending designed to boost consumption. We have run out of capital to draw on. We need to cut consumption, increase taxes, cut government spending and recognise we can’t live beyond our means indefinitely. Exactly the same prescription that the World bank has been inflicting on under capitalised third world countries for decades now.

    Very true. So the question is for you few remaining pro-Tory posters with brains is this: what the fuck are they doing???? The (we've had enough of) experts" said borrowing money to pay for tax cuts to the very rich was mad, doing it whilst borrowing costs were soaring was insane, then they saw Kamikwarteng literally cackling at the dispatch box as he slammed down lunacy after lunacy on Friday.

    This isn't a run on the pound. If the gilts price report is correct its now a run on the UK. The world has looked at the new PM and Chancellor and decided - with good reason - they are mentalists. So, Tories. What's your next play?
    To hold their nerve. That is called leadership. It will be the distinction between this administration and the joke administration of Boris Johnson. If they do hold their nerve, Truss & co will start to gain a bit of grudging respect.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited September 2022

    DavidL said:

    The bank will need to bring in an emergency interest rate rise this morning. We might have got away with matching the 0.75% from the Fed but the Bank once again blew it. That chance has now gone and we need to catch up with the Fed and possibly even go ahead of them.

    Getting those who voted for 0.5% ( including the governor) to resign might also be a good move, indicating that the bank takes inflation seriously and recognises the risk of imported inflation from a weak pound.

    The government too has to recognise that we can’t keep putting “emergencies” on the credit card. We did it with the GFC, with Covid and now with gas. We have to accept that our terms of trade no longer permit this. We are too indebted as a nation to afford it.

    Heresy. Mistress Truss was very clear on this. Countries which had massive manufacturing and export sectors had waaaaay more debt than we had, so she absolutely could borrow billions to pay tax cuts for millionaires, it would be cheap, and people would Love It.

    Are you saying that in fact Mistress Truss is wrong? Because she believes this to be continuity Thatcherism. We know it isn't, but they have branded it thus, and the right wing media went to town on how amazing she and it is. They can't all be wrong. So we must be. There is no crisis. Everything is fine. Stop Talking Down Britain. Vote Conservative unless you want those woke aliens turning your male born children into trans.
    It's true. It's emerging not to be Thatcherism but some form of disaster ultra-capitalism, just as a number of economists have been warning since figures like Odey financed Brexit.

    "Invesment Profits in a World Gone Mad, by William Rees-Mogg."

    "Reminiscent of the bestselling The Great Depression of 1990, Blood in the Streets is a groundbreaking book that offers a bold new approach to crisis investment and shows readers how to reap investment profits during financially uncertain times."
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Wonder if anyone in Govt has suggested launching a small war…
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    If the Budget had been for £100k-ers it wouldn't have been so bad because it would have made sense. Just go back to the cliff edge conversations from TSE / MaxPB / Foxy from Friday as people switch to a 4 day week rather than going beyond £100,000.

    This budget was for the 150k-ers and there are few of those and even those on here on or close it had sympathy for this scheme.

    For me on 1 level a hate it as it completely screws up a project I was working on, on the other level the reintroduction of old fashioned Ir35 is a great opportunity.
  • eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Could all the newfound converts to exchange rate targeting tell us which dollar exchange rate the government should aim for and why?

    As someone who was on Holiday in the US in the summer, and quite liked it, I'd prefer £2 to the dollar. Don't know what the economic implications of that are, but since it's not happening it doesn't matter anyway.
    You may want to check your maths there as you've just made £1 worth half what it currently is which makes the US twice as expensive as it was when you last visited it.

    For reference that would make an iphone 14 £1600 rather than the £800 it currently is...
    Why do people *need* the latest iPhone?
    Because it keeps Mrs j in a job. ;)

    (As does buying other makes of phones does ...)

    But it's actually a good question. The latest phones - whether from Apple, Samsung or a.n.other - have a massive price premium, and people are not buying them for the features, however much they kid themselves they are. They are a status symbol. Just like buying a Porsche or Ferrari.

    Yet those features mostly trickle down to cheaper phones that will be available in a year or two. I currently have a Samsung A13, and it does everything I need it to - with the advantage of knowing that if I drop it whilst out on a walk or run, I won't have lost more than a thousand quid. Yet it did not get stellar reviews, but it's perfect for what I need (not *want*)

    Oh, and I'm constantly amazed by the number of people who do not out cases on their phones, and how many of those have scratched, grazed or smashed screens. And how many of those people are struggling financially.

    Get a case, people.
  • I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    What would be more politically damaging than calling in the IMF would be if Apple put up their UK prices.
  • eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Could all the newfound converts to exchange rate targeting tell us which dollar exchange rate the government should aim for and why?

    As someone who was on Holiday in the US in the summer, and quite liked it, I'd prefer £2 to the dollar. Don't know what the economic implications of that are, but since it's not happening it doesn't matter anyway.
    You may want to check your maths there as you've just made £1 worth half what it currently is which makes the US twice as expensive as it was when you last visited it.

    For reference that would make an iphone 14 £1600 rather than the £800 it currently is...
    Why do people *need* the latest iPhone?
    Nobody "needs" it but they might "want" it. It is one of the most important distinctions in marketing consumer products
    Why do you think I wrote “need”?

    But I wouldn’t be too worried about the price of an iPhone

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Spot for future PMs of the 2040s when Kamikaze does his own presser later today.

    What presser?

    Kwasi has already said he doesn't comment on markets...
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    I am sorry to keep whinging on about it but the current economic situation is a result of us ignoring our trade balance for 30 years. We simply have far less room for manoeuvre now. The rest of the world has put up their savings to buy our assets to fund our profligacy. They call the tunes and Kwasi is off key.

    A government which already has an enormous trade deficit simply cannot boost growth with tax cuts and public spending designed to boost consumption. We have run out of capital to draw on. We need to cut consumption, increase taxes, cut government spending and recognise we can’t live beyond our means indefinitely. Exactly the same prescription that the World bank has been inflicting on under capitalised third world countries for decades now.

    Very true. So the question is for you few remaining pro-Tory posters with brains is this: what the fuck are they doing???? The (we've had enough of) experts" said borrowing money to pay for tax cuts to the very rich was mad, doing it whilst borrowing costs were soaring was insane, then they saw Kamikwarteng literally cackling at the dispatch box as he slammed down lunacy after lunacy on Friday.

    This isn't a run on the pound. If the gilts price report is correct its now a run on the UK. The world has looked at the new PM and Chancellor and decided - with good reason - they are mentalists. So, Tories. What's your next play?
    If they bin Truss and co the Tory party admits they screwed up and chances are they will lose power for a long time...

    If they keep Truss and co in place there may be a chance that this will work and things will improve. Now we all know there really isn't but then again we are clueful and your typical Tory member isn't .....

    The one great thing here is that the way taxes have been set up the only source of tax revenue now available is going to be an almost inevitable property / wealth tax...
    As an outside management consultant, I might look at this as the ousted CEO candidate having rightly called all of this, the one who succeeded due to a write-in from geriatric shareholders is doing egregious damage to the company name and financial stability, and perhaps the board might want to reconsider the choice...

    The members can be let nowhere near this. It will need to be a Michael Howard imposition. And forget populism, this is now about who can stop the whole ship from sinking. Sunak has clean hands and called this very accurately week after week after week.

    So the members may now be happy. And the remaining Singapore-on-Thames frothers like Redwood - who cares? What will they do? Remove Cosplay Lamont before it's too late.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Leon said:

    Brexit’s going well then…

    This current shit show is brought to you by the people who brought you Brexit. Whose siren songs lured you into voting yourselves and your families poorer. Cynics who sing patriotism whilst shovelling more money into their offshore accounts. The real metropolitan elite.

    This is what the Brexiters want, this is a desirable part of the process. Our current woes will be used to entrench more inequality, a smaller, shabbier, privatised to fuck public realm. Shitter services, an ever poorer NHS. The end of the NHS, if they can. Slashing the rules and regulations - that dreadful, stifling red tape - that, in thousands of ways, large and small, make our lives better, cleaner, more pleasant and equitable. But which cost these rich men money, so they must be done away with. Only profit matters.

    The supremely rich men are happy that this is happening. They’ll be making money from it somehow, no doubt. They’re happy to watch us little people struggle and worry. It doesn’t bother them, it won’t hurt them. They are like scientists observing an experiment. They only care about themselves, not the UK or the people in it.

    Brexit has hollowed out the Tory Party and left you with a rump of lunatics in charge who will cheer on this shitshow. In decades to come we’ll look back at the six years that have brought us to this point - the churn of governments, PMs, ministers, the stupid decisions leading to more stupid decisions, the choice to leave the free market, Johnson’s futile (and now shamelessly abandoned) attempts to somehow make the whole flawed enterprise actually deliver on some of its empty promises, and they will think: What the actual fuck was the UK doing?

    But you voted for Brexit
    So did you pal. Never forget you voted for this shit.

    Many of us were much more sensible and voted for what would have been best for the country.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    Tory MPs have chance to choose country over party.

    So I guess we are stuck with Truss
  • I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    Why?
  • I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    Keep your membership, there'll be a leadership contest soon.

    I hope you're prepared to be denounced by HYUFD for being leftie from now on.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Ignore the exchange rates, it is the cost of government borrowing that will screw the country and the Tories.

    Anyhoo as our analysts predicted last week after the special financial operation, we're going to have a Black Wednesday/IMF loan seminal moment and we know those events keep governments out of office for a decade plus.

    Forcing Labour to rebase spending… I like it 😂
    A lot of local authority finance directors are probably getting a bit jittery this morning.
  • tlg86 said:

    There are no good options for the Tories from here. The only question now is, can Labour win an overall majority? I think they can, even without a big recovery in Scotland.

    Yeah, it's certainly feasible.

    It's early days, but future historians may have to look at which party self-defeated the most: Labour under Corbyn, or the Conservatives under Truss and the latter days of Johnson (who was riding high in the polls until two years ago).

    I'd argue the Conservatives have it worst, as they're doing this sh*t whilst they are in power. Labour at least had their lunacy in opposition.
    Just imagine the coverage if the pound and gilts had performed as they have since Friday morning after a Labour budget in which billions more had been borrowed to fund better public services and infrastructure.

    Hey, I'm not defending that budget. I'm hardly a financial expert, but it seems a little crazy to me, and pretty much a political suicide note.

    Is *anyone* on here defending it? Does anyone think it is a good budget (leaving aside the terrible political optics)?
    🙋‍♂️
    We meant anyone who isn't pathological.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    Why?
    Because it's going to be 20% more expensive in the very near future...
  • I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    Why?
    It's really good, and fantastic battery life, I charged it up to 100% on Friday lunchtime and it is 30% now.
  • DavidL said:

    I am sorry to keep whinging on about it but the current economic situation is a result of us ignoring our trade balance for 30 years. We simply have far less room for manoeuvre now. The rest of the world has put up their savings to buy our assets to fund our profligacy. They call the tunes and Kwasi is off key.

    A government which already has an enormous trade deficit simply cannot boost growth with tax cuts and public spending designed to boost consumption. We have run out of capital to draw on. We need to cut consumption, increase taxes, cut government spending and recognise we can’t live beyond our means indefinitely. Exactly the same prescription that the World bank has been inflicting on under capitalised third world countries for decades now.

    Very true. So the question is for you few remaining pro-Tory posters with brains is this: what the fuck are they doing???? The (we've had enough of) experts" said borrowing money to pay for tax cuts to the very rich was mad, doing it whilst borrowing costs were soaring was insane, then they saw Kamikwarteng literally cackling at the dispatch box as he slammed down lunacy after lunacy on Friday.

    This isn't a run on the pound. If the gilts price report is correct its now a run on the UK. The world has looked at the new PM and Chancellor and decided - with good reason - they are mentalists. So, Tories. What's your next play?
    Devaluating your currency has always been a cheat code to make the internal economy look better.

    Whether it ever works beyond the initial jolt of adrenaline, let alone whether it will work for our current circumstances, is another matter.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Spot for future PMs of the 2040s when Kamikaze does his own presser later today.

    What presser?

    Kwasi has already said he doesn't comment on markets...
    He will. When the roof is literally falling in.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited September 2022

    Ignore the exchange rates, it is the cost of government borrowing that will screw the country and the Tories.

    Anyhoo as our analysts predicted last week after the special financial operation, we're going to have a Black Wednesday/IMF loan seminal moment and we know those events keep governments out of office for a decade plus.

    I wonder whether those like WilliamGlenn have no memory of the 1990's when a sweaty Norman Lamont almost expired in front of our very eyes as the sterling crisis came close to bankrupting us. I wonder whether Kwasi K takes his responsibilities as seriously?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    kle4 said:

    Truss needs another hundred days or so to not be the shortest serving PM ever. Just saying.

    Unless you count the Earl of Bath.

    In one respect, she's already beaten Goderich - she has at least addressed Parliament.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    So it turns out she really did mean she was going to hit the ground.

    https://twitter.com/SeanJonesKC/status/1574302291351453696

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    Why?
    It's really good, and fantastic battery life, I charged it up to 100% on Friday lunchtime and it is 30% now.
    I wound up my mechanical watch when I bought it 5 years ago and it is 100% now.
  • eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Could all the newfound converts to exchange rate targeting tell us which dollar exchange rate the government should aim for and why?

    As someone who was on Holiday in the US in the summer, and quite liked it, I'd prefer £2 to the dollar. Don't know what the economic implications of that are, but since it's not happening it doesn't matter anyway.
    You may want to check your maths there as you've just made £1 worth half what it currently is which makes the US twice as expensive as it was when you last visited it.

    For reference that would make an iphone 14 £1600 rather than the £800 it currently is...
    Why do people *need* the latest iPhone?
    Because it keeps Mrs j in a job. ;)

    (As does buying other makes of phones does ...)

    But it's actually a good question. The latest phones - whether from Apple, Samsung or a.n.other - have a massive price premium, and people are not buying them for the features, however much they kid themselves they are. They are a status symbol. Just like buying a Porsche or Ferrari.

    Yet those features mostly trickle down to cheaper phones that will be available in a year or two. I currently have a Samsung A13, and it does everything I need it to - with the advantage of knowing that if I drop it whilst out on a walk or run, I won't have lost more than a thousand quid. Yet it did not get stellar reviews, but it's perfect for what I need (not *want*)

    Oh, and I'm constantly amazed by the number of people who do not out cases on their phones, and how many of those have scratched, grazed or smashed screens. And how many of those people are struggling financially.

    Get a case, people.
    The camera on the latest iPhone 14 Pro Max is the awesome.

    The thing for me is the seamless interaction in the Apple ecosystem.

    I can be working on my MacBook and pick up exactly where I was on my iPad or iPhone.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    George Osborne, former Conservative chancellor:

    “You can’t just borrow your way to a low-tax economy...fundamentally the schizophrenia has to be resolved. You can’t have small-state taxes and big-state spending.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5b9d1f87-dc78-4626-bb08-507561c6176a
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    I don't need my membership. There won't be a vote. There will be a coronation. The MPs have to take the running of the country away from the membership.

    They are more likely to want to hand the mess over to Labour and pretend they had nothing to do with it
  • I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    Keep your membership, there'll be a leadership contest soon.

    I hope you're prepared to be denounced by HYUFD for being leftie from now on.
    I don't need my membership. There won't be a vote. There will be a coronation. The MPs have to take the running of the country away from the membership.
    True.

    Agree with your original post 100%.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    kle4 said:

    Truss needs another hundred days or so to not be the shortest serving PM ever. Just saying.

    That reminds me, I need to update my spreadsheet.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    TimS said:

    As I predicted last night: Black Monday has arrived.

    Liz "move fast and break things" Truss.

    We’ve already had a black Monday so it would be neater narrative-wise if the markets could hang on for the real meltdown and BoE intervention until Black Tuesday.
    Er... 29 October 1929 says 'hi'.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
  • eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Could all the newfound converts to exchange rate targeting tell us which dollar exchange rate the government should aim for and why?

    As someone who was on Holiday in the US in the summer, and quite liked it, I'd prefer £2 to the dollar. Don't know what the economic implications of that are, but since it's not happening it doesn't matter anyway.
    You may want to check your maths there as you've just made £1 worth half what it currently is which makes the US twice as expensive as it was when you last visited it.

    For reference that would make an iphone 14 £1600 rather than the £800 it currently is...
    Why do people *need* the latest iPhone?
    Because it keeps Mrs j in a job. ;)

    (As does buying other makes of phones does ...)

    But it's actually a good question. The latest phones - whether from Apple, Samsung or a.n.other - have a massive price premium, and people are not buying them for the features, however much they kid themselves they are. They are a status symbol. Just like buying a Porsche or Ferrari.

    Yet those features mostly trickle down to cheaper phones that will be available in a year or two. I currently have a Samsung A13, and it does everything I need it to - with the advantage of knowing that if I drop it whilst out on a walk or run, I won't have lost more than a thousand quid. Yet it did not get stellar reviews, but it's perfect for what I need (not *want*)

    Oh, and I'm constantly amazed by the number of people who do not out cases on their phones, and how many of those have scratched, grazed or smashed screens. And how many of those people are struggling financially.

    Get a case, people.
    The camera on the latest iPhone 14 Pro Max is the awesome.

    The thing for me is the seamless interaction in the Apple ecosystem.

    I can be working on my MacBook and pick up exactly where I was on my iPad or iPhone.
    The camera on my A13 is awesome - but all I do is take snaps of the family, runs and various other things. Now, if you are a professional or semi-professional photographer, instagrammer or similar an 'awesome' camera might be vital; but 99% of the people who buy the phones will never use the features.

    I bet you don't either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    Under Thatcher, the pound fell from $2.44 in 1980 to $1.07 in 1985, and she won a landslide in the middle of it.

    The amount of jowl wobbling on this on PB this morning is quite risible. People are making some money selling the pound. At some future point, people will decide that there's money to be made buying it. Been here plenty of times before.
    On that basis why every worry about economic shocks like severe recessions either? I mean, eventually growth returned so what's the big deal? And as such why is the government bothering to try to fix the growth problem at all?

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Roger said:

    Ignore the exchange rates, it is the cost of government borrowing that will screw the country and the Tories.

    Anyhoo as our analysts predicted last week after the special financial operation, we're going to have a Black Wednesday/IMF loan seminal moment and we know those events keep governments out of office for a decade plus.

    I wonder whether those like WilliamGlenn have no memory of the 1990's when a sweaty Norman Lamont almost expired in front of our very eyes as the sterling crisis came close to bankrupting us. I wonder whether Kwasi K takes his responsibilities as seriously?
    To be fair wasn’t the big problem above all else in 1992 the political commitment to stay in the ERM? The amount of money chucked away trying to hold the £ only to end up devaluing anyway. The country would have been a lot richer if they hadn’t spent those few days trying to avoid doing so.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW UK Government borrowing costs surge again on market opening

    Now 4.35% for a two year gilt (was 3.2% a week ago, 1.7% at beginning of August)… 4.1% for 10 year

    Sterling fighting back in last hour - still down but by less. $1.07


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574296562355806209

    So much hysteria on here this morning. Reminds me of the early days of the pandemic.

    US 2-year debt has risen by almost 1% in the last fortnight, and by 1.5% since August. Froggy debt has gone up from -0.5% in March to 2% now.

    Clearly Truss's package has much wider implications than I'd imagined.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Truss needs another hundred days or so to not be the shortest serving PM ever. Just saying.

    Unless you count the Earl of Bath.

    In one respect, she's already beaten Goderich - she has at least addressed Parliament.
    Had he done so, he would have told them many a Ripon yarn.
  • I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    Why?
    It's really good, and fantastic battery life, I charged it up to 100% on Friday lunchtime and it is 30% now.
    Pretty much the same with my Garmin smartwatch. Except I also had it on GPS whist I did a 16-mile run on Saturday and swimming with it yesterday. I'll need to put it on charge later though.

    And looking at the reviews, the Apple Watch Ultra is fugly.
  • The assumption is now that the BOE will act - if they don't then the slide will resume. If they do then that will cause different problems. The Govt is powerless on all this now. All they can do is close their eyes, shut their ears and cross their fingers.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Scott_xP said:

    I don't need my membership. There won't be a vote. There will be a coronation. The MPs have to take the running of the country away from the membership.

    They are more likely to want to hand the mess over to Labour and pretend they had nothing to do with it
    That means 2 years with Truss in power (because the polls are never going to be in a position to make calling an election a sane plan for Truss)..

    I doubt the neither Tory party nor the country can cope with that...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Jonathan said:

    Under Thatcher, the pound fell from $2.44 in 1980 to $1.07 in 1985, and she won a landslide in the middle of it.

    Are you saying this is all by design? Played for and won?
    Is it possible that the once well well respected anti Brexiteer WilliamGlenn is in fact a reprogrammed Tory Bot?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    David Herdson
    @DavidHerdson
    ·
    48s
    The UK is now in danger of having entered (not entering) a vicious cycle, where lack of credibility in the govt pushes up rates, which pushes up debt servicing, which increases the deficit, which reduces credibility in the govt.

    Repeat to a U-turn or a gigantic crisis.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    We now realise that ‘ground’ was a typo for ‘pound’ https://twitter.com/DavidMuttering/status/1573436085723865093/photo/1
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW UK Government borrowing costs surge again on market opening

    Now 4.35% for a two year gilt (was 3.2% a week ago, 1.7% at beginning of August)… 4.1% for 10 year

    Sterling fighting back in last hour - still down but by less. $1.07


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574296562355806209

    So much hysteria on here this morning. Reminds me of the early days of the pandemic.

    US 2-year debt has risen by almost 1% in the last fortnight, and by 1.5% since August. Froggy debt has gone up from -0.5% in March to 2% now.

    Clearly Truss's package has much wider implications than I'd imagined.
    In pace with central Bank interest rates, whereas we are rather outrunning ours.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891

    The assumption is now that the BOE will act - if they don't then the slide will resume. If they do then that will cause different problems. The Govt is powerless on all this now. All they can do is close their eyes, shut their ears and cross their fingers.

    The Gov't isn't powerless at all, it's their fiscal decisions that have caused the devaluation & implied increase in interest rates.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited September 2022

    The assumption is now that the BOE will act - if they don't then the slide will resume. If they do then that will cause different problems. The Govt is powerless on all this now. All they can do is close their eyes, shut their ears and cross their fingers.

    I don't think the BoE can act - the next meeting is in 5 weeks time and the BoE remit is inflation I don't think it has any remit regarding exchange rates...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Truss needs another hundred days or so to not be the shortest serving PM ever. Just saying.

    Unless you count the Earl of Bath.

    In one respect, she's already beaten Goderich - she has at least addressed Parliament.
    Had he done so, he would have told them many a Ripon yarn.
    Better than this lot who are robbing sons and daughters blind with unfunded borrowing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    *Reminder*

    The Truss government wants interest rates to rise faster. It's a key part of its new economic strategy. So if market reaction to this mini-Budget forces the Bank of England's hand, that is a design feature, not a design flaw, of Truss's plan.


    https://twitter.com/KateAndrs/status/1574305054072471552
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    Why?
    It's really good, and fantastic battery life, I charged it up to 100% on Friday lunchtime and it is 30% now.
    Pretty much the same with my Garmin smartwatch. Except I also had it on GPS whist I did a 16-mile run on Saturday and swimming with it yesterday. I'll need to put it on charge later though.

    And looking at the reviews, the Apple Watch Ultra is fugly.
    Power of a brand - even if it is people want it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    Why?
    It's really good, and fantastic battery life, I charged it up to 100% on Friday lunchtime and it is 30% now.
    A watch that needs recharging in about 72 hours?!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Scott_xP said:

    We now realise that ‘ground’ was a typo for ‘pound’ https://twitter.com/DavidMuttering/status/1573436085723865093/photo/1

    That's very good!
  • Remember when Osborne said we needed a Tory government to avoid becoming, economically, like Greece in 2010 ?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255

    I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    Keep your membership, there'll be a leadership contest soon.

    I hope you're prepared to be denounced by HYUFD for being leftie from now on.
    I don't need my membership. There won't be a vote. There will be a coronation. The MPs have to take the running of the country away from the membership.
    Those effing MPs had one job. Decide on two acceptable candidates to put forward to the membership.

    They cannot palm all the blame off on the membership.

    They were not meant to play it as the bishop appointment episode of Yes. Minister.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    I'm not sure Truss has the votes to get her budget through unless she changes tack.

    A small minority of MPs went for her, and she's appointed nothing but her friends to Government.

    It’s posts like yours makes me think Truss doesn’t lead now into next election. The Tories can do better and stronger result in GE with a more representative cabinet, so why would party not act if polls and economy very bad in about six months?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Remember when Osborne said we needed a Tory government to avoid becoming, economically, like Greece in 2010 ?

    We needed a Conservative Government.

    Unfortunately all the Conservatives were expelled when BoZo took over
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    Brexit’s going well then…

    This current shit show is brought to you by the people who brought you Brexit. Whose siren songs lured you into voting yourselves and your families poorer. Cynics who sing patriotism whilst shovelling more money into their offshore accounts. The real metropolitan elite.

    This is what the Brexiters want, this is a desirable part of the process. Our current woes will be used to entrench more inequality, a smaller, shabbier, privatised to fuck public realm. Shitter services, an ever poorer NHS. The end of the NHS, if they can. Slashing the rules and regulations - that dreadful, stifling red tape - that, in thousands of ways, large and small, make our lives better, cleaner, more pleasant and equitable. But which cost these rich men money, so they must be done away with. Only profit matters.

    The supremely rich men are happy that this is happening. They’ll be making money from it somehow, no doubt. They’re happy to watch us little people struggle and worry. It doesn’t bother them, it won’t hurt them. They are like scientists observing an experiment. They only care about themselves, not the UK or the people in it.

    Brexit has hollowed out the Tory Party and left you with a rump of lunatics in charge who will cheer on this shitshow. In decades to come we’ll look back at the six years that have brought us to this point - the churn of governments, PMs, ministers, the stupid decisions leading to more stupid decisions, the choice to leave the free market, Johnson’s futile (and now shamelessly abandoned) attempts to somehow make the whole flawed enterprise actually deliver on some of its empty promises, and they will think: What the actual fuck was the UK doing?

    But you voted for Brexit
    So did you pal. Never forget you voted for this shit.

    Many of us were much more sensible and voted for what would have been best for the country.
    And I am very happy that I voted Brexit. I am just pointing out the idiocy of Brexiteer @northern_monkey bemoaning Brexiteers
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    If inflation was still low I'd say SKS for PM after next election was great value. Could still be depending on your personal time value of money but doesn't work for me atm
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    It was $/£ the purple line below at all time low since creation of US dollar by Alexander Hamilton in 1792… till WW2 5$ was more typical, post war $2ish, until reaching $1.05 in 1985, and bouncing back up to $2 in 2007. $1.51 before Brexit, and all time low of $1.03 this morning https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574306147531636736/photo/1
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    If inflation was still low I'd say SKS for PM after next election was great value. Could still be depending on your personal time value of money but doesn't work for me atm

    Forgot to add price. 8/11.
  • Brexit’s going well then…

    [snip!]

    Brexit has hollowed out the Tory Party and left you with a rump of lunatics in charge who will cheer on this shitshow. In decades to come we’ll look back at the six years that have brought us to this point - the churn of governments, PMs, ministers, the stupid decisions leading to more stupid decisions, the choice to leave the free market, Johnson’s futile (and now shamelessly abandoned) attempts to somehow make the whole flawed enterprise actually deliver on some of its empty promises, and they will think: What the actual fuck was the UK doing?

    A perfect summary IMO :+1:
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:

    *Reminder*

    The Truss government wants interest rates to rise faster. It's a key part of its new economic strategy. So if market reaction to this mini-Budget forces the Bank of England's hand, that is a design feature, not a design flaw, of Truss's plan.


    https://twitter.com/KateAndrs/status/1574305054072471552

    I understand exactly nothing about any of this. What the fuck does it all mean?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited September 2022
    Pro_Rata said:

    I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    Keep your membership, there'll be a leadership contest soon.

    I hope you're prepared to be denounced by HYUFD for being leftie from now on.
    I don't need my membership. There won't be a vote. There will be a coronation. The MPs have to take the running of the country away from the membership.
    Those effing MPs had one job. Decide on two acceptable candidates to put forward to the membership.

    They cannot palm all the blame off on the membership.

    They were not meant to play it as the bishop appointment episode of Yes. Minister.
    The problem with that argument is that looking back I see

    1 decent candidate - Sunak
    3 crap ones who seem qualified - Truss / Hunt / Mordaunt

    And the others setting a pointer for future elections...

    Once Hunt was gone there really wasn't 2 acceptable candidates to put forward....

    Personally I wouldn't be blaming Tory MPs the lack of choices comes from Bozo being all the sane ones in his purge of October 2019...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Black Friday appears to be (relatively) free if anyone's interested:

    Black Monday - 19 October 1987 Global stock market crash
    Black Tuesday - 29 October 1929 Wall Street Crash
    Black Wednesday - 16 September 1992 Sterling ERM crisis
    Black Thursday - 12 March 2020 Global Covid stock market crash

    Black Friday - 30 September 2022?
  • One person who is going to be laughing today is Boris Johnson. Cummings was right that he assumed that her government will implode.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    As I said yesterday, if Rishi ever wants to be PM he'll bring the government down today with 38 rebels and be installed by a coronation in days. Liz Truss is leading the nation towards an IMF bailout so she can give people like me a giant tax cut.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Brexit’s going well then…

    [snip!]

    Brexit has hollowed out the Tory Party and left you with a rump of lunatics in charge who will cheer on this shitshow. In decades to come we’ll look back at the six years that have brought us to this point - the churn of governments, PMs, ministers, the stupid decisions leading to more stupid decisions, the choice to leave the free market, Johnson’s futile (and now shamelessly abandoned) attempts to somehow make the whole flawed enterprise actually deliver on some of its empty promises, and they will think: What the actual fuck was the UK doing?

    Leon said:

    And I am very happy that I voted Brexit.


    Brexit is a shitshow, and the people who voted for it are happy about that...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited September 2022

    Remember when Osborne said we needed a Tory government to avoid becoming, economically, like Greece in 2010 ?

    Tbh, this is not a Conservative government in any reasonable sense of the word.

    The Tory Party has been taken over by the swivel-eyed loons.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Remember when Osborne said we needed a Tory government to avoid becoming, economically, like Greece in 2010 ?

    We needed a Conservative Government.

    Unfortunately all the Conservatives were expelled when BoZo took over
    The bare economic facts are that we're now far, far closer to a Greek-style situation than in 2010.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    alex_ said:

    Roger said:

    Ignore the exchange rates, it is the cost of government borrowing that will screw the country and the Tories.

    Anyhoo as our analysts predicted last week after the special financial operation, we're going to have a Black Wednesday/IMF loan seminal moment and we know those events keep governments out of office for a decade plus.

    I wonder whether those like WilliamGlenn have no memory of the 1990's when a sweaty Norman Lamont almost expired in front of our very eyes as the sterling crisis came close to bankrupting us. I wonder whether Kwasi K takes his responsibilities as seriously?
    To be fair wasn’t the big problem above all else in 1992 the political commitment to stay in the ERM? The amount of money chucked away trying to hold the £ only to end up devaluing anyway. The country would have been a lot richer if they hadn’t spent those few days trying to avoid doing so.
    The overall sense of 1992 was that the ship was out of control and no one sensible had their hand on the tiller. Listening to this mornings news the notes are chillingly familiar
  • MaxPB said:

    As I said yesterday, if Rishi ever wants to be PM he'll bring the government down today with 38 rebels and be installed by a coronation in days. Liz Truss is leading the nation towards an IMF bailout so she can give people like me a giant tax cut.

    Isn't there a recess?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Scott_xP said:

    Remember when Osborne said we needed a Tory government to avoid becoming, economically, like Greece in 2010 ?

    We needed a Conservative Government.

    Unfortunately all the Conservatives were expelled when BoZo took over
    The bare economic facts are that we're now far, far closer to a Greek-style situation than in 2010.
    And we could use a Conservative Government.

    unfortunately we are stuck with the swivel eyed loons
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    Pulpstar said:

    The assumption is now that the BOE will act - if they don't then the slide will resume. If they do then that will cause different problems. The Govt is powerless on all this now. All they can do is close their eyes, shut their ears and cross their fingers.

    The Gov't isn't powerless at all, it's their fiscal decisions that have caused the devaluation & implied increase in interest rates.
    I suspect that part of the plan is to blame the Bank for problems - "we have done what we can to help ordinary people but of course we have to respect the independence of the Bank."

    I don't think it'll work - people look at the overall effect rather than the role of each individual decision-maker.
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